| Presidential Vote Equation---2004 Update |
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The following paper presents the 2004 update of the presidential vote
equation.
No specification changes have been made to the equation since the update
in November 1994, following the 1992 election---the "1992 update."
The equation has simply been
reestimated each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the
results of the previous election. The following paper
also contains the first prediction for 2008 using the
2004 update.
November 1, 2006: 2004 update and prediction for 2008
The following paper also presents the 2004 update of the presidential vote
equation in addition to estimated equations for the on-term and mid-term
House elections. All the estimated equations are presented in Table 2,
page 16, of this paper.
The following link allows you to compute your own predictions of the
2008 presidential election and the 2008 House election. The presidential
equation is in column 1 in Table 2 of the above paper, and the
House equation is in column 3. In the above
paper the vote-share variables are
Democratic vote shares, but for purposes of the following calculations the
vote-share variables have been taken to be incumbent (currently Republican)
vote
shares. With appropriate transformations, the estimated equations are
idential using either Democratic vote shares or incumbent vote shares.
Also, the constant terms in the two equations listed in this link
incorporate the effects of all the non-economic variables in the two
equations, which are known at this time. The currently unknown variables
are just the three economic variables.
Predictions for 2008 using the 2004 update:
Original paper:
Previous update papers:
Non technical discussions:
Web site material for previous elections:
Related work:
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