[position in research by date]
[position in research by subject]
"An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting
Economic Review, June 1974, 285-303.
pdf file (990KB).
This paper examines the ex ante and ex post predictive accuracy of my
forecasting model--1971#5. Between
July 21, 1970, and April 23, 1973, I released
twelve sets of forecasts from the
model, and these are the ex ante forecasts that are
examined. This paper also serves as a brief review of the
forecasting model. About the time this paper was written I was
beginning work on my current model, and this was the last time I
examined the forecasting model except for the comparison in
in Chapter 8 and Appendix B in 1976#1.