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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, 168-179.
pdf file (693KB).

Abstract

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seem to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

Comments

This is my second update of 1978#2. The earlier update is 1982#1. The later updates are 1990#3, 1996#1, 1998#2, 2002#4, 2006#3. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.