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"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus
Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452.
pdf file (1,283 KB).
This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to
estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in
February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into
account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be
$554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1--2020:4
(0.29 percent of the total sum of output).
The average number of jobs is 509 thousand larger (0.37 percent).
There is some
redistribution of output and employment
away from 2012--2015. At the end of 2020 the federal government
debt is larger by $637 billion in real terms (the debt/GDP ratio
is larger by 3.19 percentage points), which may increase the risk of negative
Results in this paper can be duplicated using the MCE model on this website.
See Chapter 8 of
The MCE Model Workbook.