October 31, 2003: US model has been updated through 2003:3. Forecast Memo
November 1, 2002: Presidential vote equation updated through 2000 election. Pres. Vote Eq. (2004)

Welcome to the FAIRMODEL site
This site brings the power of large scale macroeconometric analysis to anyone with access to the internet. It is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers, and students. At this site, which is completely free, you can:
  1. Work with a U.S. macroeconometric model (US model) or a multicountry econometric model (MC model) to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
  2. Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data, and data you may have created.
  3. Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
  4. Download for use on your own computer: the Fair-Parke (FP) program, the US model, the MC model, and the US model in EViews format.
  5. Analyze a presidential vote equation, including examining Bush's chances in 2004.
  6. Perform stock market experiments.
Before working with the models you should look over carefully Getting Started. See Articles About the Site for general discussions of the site. If you would like to register, click Registration (optional). For information or questions about the models and for bug reports, email Ray Fair at ray.fair@yale.edu.
Research and Policy Papers
Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Estimating...
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Predicting...
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations"- Optimal Control
"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy"- Monetary Policy
"Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models"- Bootstrapping
"Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s,"- New Economy
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks"- Inflation Shocks
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules,"- Fed Behavior
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy"- Fed Policy and Stock Market
"Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States"- NAIRU
"Risk Aversion and Stock Prices,"- Risk Aversion
"Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates"- Shock Effects
"Events that Shook the Market"- Events that Shook the Market, Table 1A
"College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster) - Football Rankings
"An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans"- Clinton/Dole Plans (old)