US Forecast: November 1, 2001
Forecast Period

2001:4--2005:4 (17 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 31, 2001.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2001:3. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the April 27, 2001, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. Two changes were made for the current version (November 1, 2001). First, equation 9, which explains the demand for money of the household sector, has an exogenous variable, T941A, added, which equals T-168 from 1994:1 on and 0 otherwise. Second, equation 11, the inventory investment equation, is now estimated in log form. For discussion of the various versions of the models on this site, see Current Versions and References and Previous Versions and References.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2001:3.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2001:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  4.5       
COG           3.0                  0.9       
JG            1.0                 -1.3       
TRGS          8.0                  7.0       
TRSH          7.0                  6.5       
COS           3.0                  5.8       
JS            1.0                  1.8       
EX            1.0/4.0              6.1
PIM           1.5                 -1.1

1.0/4.0 means 1.0 for 2001:4-2002:3 and 4.0 thereafter.

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

The tax cut package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in May of this year has been incorporated into the current forecast. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimates of the tax reductions by fiscal year, and these estimates were used as a guide in choosing values for D1G, the personal income tax parameter in the model. D1G was adjusted in the manner discussed in Section 5.2 of The US Model Workbook, experiment 5.5. You can examine the values for D1G to see what was done. The tax reduction was about $160 billion at an annual rate in 2001:3 because of the tax rebates. The tax reduction in each quarter of the current fiscal year is about $75 billion at an annual rate, and this rises to a little over $100 billion by 2004. No additional tax cuts were incorporated into the current forecast, although Congress may pass more.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve" in the left menu under "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2005:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2003. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions out a number of years.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: There is essentially no growth forecast for the next three quarters: growth rates of 0.0, 0.2, and 0.5 percent. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 5.7 percent by 2002:3.

As sluggish as this forecast is, it may in fact be too optimistic. There is no way in the model without subjectively adjusting the consumption equations to incorporate possible negative demand shocks due to September 11 and what followed. If there are such shocks, then the consumption equations are likely to overpredict consumption. Also, the values used for exports may be too large: EX is assumed to grow at 1 percent for the next year and then 4 percent thereafter. If there is a serious slowdown abroad, U.S. exports may not do this well.

Working in the opposite direction, on the other hand, are possible changes to monetary and fiscal policy that are not incorporated into the current forecast. As discussed below, the model is overpredicting the short term interest rate, and if the Fed keeps the interest rate as low or lower than it currently is, this is stimulus not incorporated into the forecast. Also, if Congress passes further tax cuts or additional spending, this is extra stimulus.

The current forecast should thus be looked upon as a forecast of what would happen in a no shock world with no further monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and no serious slowdown abroad. It is a base forecast from which various experiments can be made.

You may ask why the model is predicting no growth for the next three quarters if no negative shocks are assumed? Two reasons are 1) the recent drop in household wealth from the fall in the stock market and 2) the currently large stocks of durable goods and housing due to large past values of durable goods spending and housing investment. Other things equal, large stocks of durable goods and housing have negative effects on future durable goods spending and housing investment. In other words, these "initial conditions" are negative regarding future demand.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be less than or around 2 percent throughout the forecast period.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, and 2001:3 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be around 3 percent during the forecast period. RS is already lower than this on a monthly basis, and so the model is continuing to overpredict the bill rate.

Other Variables: The federal government budget surplus in the national income accounts (SGP) is forecast to fall to zero by about 2004. Remember, however, that the current forecast assumes no further tax cuts and government spending increases. If there are such cuts or increases, the surplus will fall to zero faster. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (between $381.0 and $641.6 billion).

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the negative side, you can shock (through constant adjustments) the consumption equations 1, 2, and 3. You can also shock the investment equations 4 and 12. On the positive side, you can decrease tax rates and increase government spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate. Back to the negative side, if you think there will be an oil price shock, you can increase PIM. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. You may also want to use lower values for exports (EX) than the forecast uses if you think there will be a serious slowdown abroad. Finally, you may want to crash the stock market if you think it is overvalued in light of future economic predictions.

US Forecast Tables: November 1, 2001
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19971 8016.4 4.4 3103.7 4.2 1605.6 3.0 641.5 10.5 19972 8131.9 5.9 3130.6 3.5 1608.2 0.6 636.5 -3.1 19973 8216.6 4.2 3160.6 3.9 1631.7 6.0 670.5 23.1 19974 8272.9 2.8 3193.0 4.2 1634.1 0.6 680.9 6.4 19981 8396.3 6.1 3228.4 4.5 1656.3 5.5 692.5 7.0 19982 8442.9 2.2 3262.3 4.3 1680.5 6.0 719.7 16.7 19983 8528.5 4.1 3295.2 4.1 1693.6 3.2 727.1 4.2 19984 8667.9 6.7 3307.6 1.5 1715.3 5.2 767.3 24.0 19991 8733.5 3.1 3340.8 4.1 1738.8 5.6 780.5 7.1 19992 8771.2 1.7 3377.8 4.5 1757.2 4.3 809.5 15.7 19993 8871.5 4.7 3413.7 4.3 1768.6 2.6 827.2 9.0 19994 9049.9 8.3 3440.5 3.2 1801.1 7.6 854.2 13.7 20001 9102.5 2.3 3472.2 3.7 1823.8 5.1 892.1 19.0 20002 9229.4 5.7 3509.6 4.4 1844.9 4.7 886.5 -2.5 20003 9260.1 1.3 3540.2 3.5 1864.1 4.2 904.1 8.2 20004 9303.9 1.9 3588.8 5.6 1866.8 0.6 899.4 -2.1 20011 9334.5 1.3 3605.1 1.8 1878.0 2.4 922.4 10.6 20012 9341.7 0.3 3629.8 2.8 1879.4 0.3 938.1 7.0 20013 9333.4 -0.4 3642.6 1.4 1882.1 0.6 942.0 1.7 20014 9332.9 0.0 3677.1 3.8 1884.6 0.5 939.9 -0.9 20021 9336.9 0.2 3709.5 3.6 1888.4 0.8 938.4 -0.6 20022 9348.8 0.5 3741.2 3.5 1894.2 1.2 938.3 -0.1 20023 9376.9 1.2 3772.2 3.4 1901.9 1.6 939.7 0.6 20024 9424.6 2.1 3803.4 3.4 1911.5 2.0 943.9 1.8 20031 9482.0 2.5 3834.0 3.3 1922.2 2.3 949.1 2.2 20032 9543.6 2.6 3864.2 3.2 1933.6 2.4 955.4 2.7 20033 9606.3 2.7 3894.3 3.1 1945.5 2.5 962.5 3.0 20034 9670.6 2.7 3924.7 3.2 1957.9 2.6 970.8 3.5 20041 9733.9 2.6 3954.9 3.1 1970.4 2.6 979.4 3.6 20042 9795.3 2.5 3984.9 3.1 1983.0 2.6 988.2 3.6 20043 9854.8 2.5 4014.8 3.0 1995.5 2.5 997.1 3.7 20044 9914.9 2.5 4045.3 3.1 2008.2 2.6 1006.7 3.9 20051 9974.3 2.4 4075.6 3.0 2020.8 2.5 1016.2 3.8 20052 10032.9 2.4 4106.0 3.0 2033.4 2.5 1025.8 3.8 20053 10091.0 2.3 4136.3 3.0 2046.0 2.5 1035.3 3.8 20054 10150.9 2.4 4167.4 3.0 2058.9 2.5 1045.4 4.0
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19971 274.5 9.8 814.6 9.2 49.3 1034.3 15.3 19972 278.0 5.2 845.1 15.8 88.3 1079.8 18.8 19973 279.4 2.0 886.5 21.1 51.3 1123.8 17.3 19974 283.4 5.9 895.1 3.9 66.1 1141.2 6.3 19981 294.3 16.4 943.9 23.7 113.1 1184.2 15.9 19982 300.7 8.9 973.8 13.3 42.0 1216.2 11.3 19983 308.7 11.1 977.5 1.5 71.8 1228.9 4.2 19984 315.7 9.4 1014.2 15.9 80.0 1264.8 12.2 19991 314.3 -1.8 1032.3 7.4 83.4 1290.6 8.4 19992 316.1 2.3 1053.7 8.5 32.7 1331.4 13.3 19993 315.8 -0.3 1082.2 11.3 39.6 1375.1 13.8 19994 317.3 1.9 1098.8 6.3 92.7 1409.8 10.5 20001 323.9 8.5 1143.7 17.4 28.9 1466.6 17.1 20002 323.2 -0.8 1179.9 13.3 78.9 1523.4 16.4 20003 314.4 -10.4 1201.6 7.6 51.7 1570.6 13.0 20004 313.6 -1.1 1204.0 0.8 42.8 1568.5 -0.5 20011 320.1 8.6 1201.5 -0.8 -27.1 1548.6 -5.0 20012 324.8 6.1 1149.1 -16.3 -38.3 1515.0 -8.4 20013 326.3 1.8 1113.4 -11.9 -50.4 1454.0 -15.2 20014 318.7 -8.9 1110.2 -1.1 -13.9 1504.8 14.7 20021 315.9 -3.5 1105.3 -1.8 -6.6 1544.8 11.1 20022 315.4 -0.6 1100.1 -1.8 -3.8 1577.1 8.6 20023 316.9 1.9 1097.4 -1.0 3.0 1604.5 7.1 20024 321.0 5.2 1098.5 0.4 7.6 1629.4 6.3 20031 324.9 4.9 1102.6 1.5 16.0 1652.8 5.9 20032 328.6 4.6 1109.6 2.5 24.0 1675.8 5.7 20033 332.1 4.3 1118.6 3.3 30.0 1698.7 5.6 20034 336.0 4.8 1128.9 3.8 34.0 1722.1 5.6 20041 339.3 4.1 1139.8 3.9 37.0 1745.9 5.6 20042 342.3 3.6 1150.7 3.9 38.7 1770.1 5.6 20043 345.0 3.2 1161.2 3.7 39.2 1794.5 5.6 20044 348.1 3.7 1171.6 3.6 38.9 1819.3 5.6 20051 350.8 3.1 1181.8 3.5 38.8 1844.3 5.6 20052 353.3 2.9 1191.7 3.4 38.6 1869.6 5.6 20053 355.7 2.7 1201.5 3.3 38.1 1895.1 5.6 20054 358.7 3.4 1211.3 3.3 37.5 1921.0 5.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19971 2.9 4.4 1.6 -2.6 19972 1.9 2.0 1.9 -0.1 19973 1.2 1.6 5.6 3.9 19974 1.4 1.6 5.1 3.5 19981 1.1 1.0 7.6 6.5 19982 1.0 1.1 7.2 6.1 19983 1.4 1.6 5.1 3.5 19984 1.1 0.1 5.1 5.0 19991 1.8 2.6 5.6 2.9 19992 1.3 1.6 4.1 2.5 19993 1.4 1.1 4.4 3.2 19994 1.6 1.8 4.3 2.5 20001 3.8 3.5 5.4 1.8 20002 2.2 2.0 9.8 7.7 20003 1.9 2.0 7.4 5.3 20004 1.7 2.1 10.4 8.1 20011 3.3 2.9 5.6 2.6 20012 2.1 1.9 7.1 5.2 20013 2.2 2.0 4.2 2.2 20014 1.5 1.3 3.1 1.8 20021 1.6 1.2 3.1 1.9 20022 1.6 1.2 3.1 1.9 20023 1.5 1.2 3.2 1.9 20024 1.6 1.3 3.3 1.9 20031 1.6 1.4 3.4 2.0 20032 1.7 1.5 3.5 2.0 20033 1.8 1.6 3.6 2.0 20034 1.9 1.7 3.7 2.0 20041 1.9 1.7 3.7 2.0 20042 2.0 1.8 3.8 2.0 20043 2.0 1.8 3.8 2.0 20044 2.1 1.9 3.9 2.0 20051 2.1 1.9 3.9 2.0 20052 2.1 1.9 3.9 2.0 20053 2.1 1.9 4.0 2.0 20054 2.1 1.9 4.0 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1219.8 5.1 65.2 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1238.9 6.4 69.7 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1233.3 -1.8 70.7 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.2 5.2 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.6 4.4 73.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1279.9 5.6 71.5 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1288.6 2.8 74.5 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1310.7 7.0 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1320.0 2.9 72.1 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1332.4 3.8 73.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1344.5 3.7 72.5 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.3 18.7 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1382.0 -5.9 64.3 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1384.1 0.6 65.6 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1382.1 -0.6 61.8 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.9 1.7 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1408.0 5.9 65.2 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1437.6 8.7 66.4 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1504.7 20.0 69.5 20014 3.4 7.0 6.9 1508.7 1.1 68.5 20021 3.4 6.8 6.8 1515.2 1.7 67.7 20022 3.1 6.6 6.7 1524.0 2.3 67.6 20023 2.8 6.4 6.5 1534.5 2.8 67.6 20024 2.8 6.2 6.4 1546.5 3.2 67.7 20031 2.8 6.1 6.3 1559.4 3.4 67.9 20032 2.8 6.0 6.2 1573.1 3.6 68.1 20033 2.8 5.8 6.2 1587.6 3.7 68.5 20034 2.8 5.7 6.1 1602.8 3.9 68.8 20041 2.8 5.7 6.1 1618.5 4.0 69.2 20042 2.8 5.6 6.0 1634.7 4.1 69.7 20043 2.8 5.5 6.0 1651.4 4.1 70.2 20044 2.7 5.4 5.9 1668.6 4.2 70.7 20051 2.7 5.3 5.9 1686.3 4.3 71.3 20052 2.6 5.3 5.8 1704.3 4.3 71.8 20053 2.5 5.2 5.8 1722.7 4.4 72.5 20054 2.5 5.1 5.7 1741.6 4.5 73.1
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19971 5.2 1.6 0.5 3.2 3.0 2.0 7.1 19972 5.0 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.5 6.8 19973 4.9 1.4 3.4 -0.9 1.5 2.0 6.6 19974 4.7 -0.3 -1.8 6.0 3.1 1.7 6.4 19981 4.7 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.2 0.7 6.4 19982 4.4 0.4 -0.9 2.3 2.7 1.4 6.1 19983 4.5 0.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.1 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 0.8 3.9 2.0 2.1 6.1 19991 4.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.7 5.9 19992 4.3 -0.5 -0.3 3.5 2.4 0.8 5.9 19993 4.2 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.4 1.4 5.9 19994 4.1 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 5.7 20001 4.1 1.4 1.9 3.1 2.5 2.3 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.8 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 5.6 20003 4.0 0.5 -2.2 0.8 0.8 -0.4 5.7 20004 4.0 0.5 0.4 3.7 0.8 1.6 5.6 20011 4.2 0.9 3.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 6.0 20012 4.5 0.3 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.1 6.3 20013 4.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 -1.4 -0.4 6.8 20014 5.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 -0.2 0.5 7.2 20021 5.3 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.0 0.7 7.6 20022 5.5 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.1 0.8 7.9 20023 5.7 0.9 2.4 1.7 0.3 1.1 8.2 20024 5.7 0.9 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.3 8.3 20031 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.5 8.4 20032 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.6 8.4 20033 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 8.5 20034 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 8.5 20041 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.6 8.6 20042 5.8 0.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.5 8.6 20043 5.9 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 8.8 20044 5.9 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 8.9 20051 6.0 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 9.0 20052 6.1 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.4 9.2 20053 6.1 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 9.3 20054 6.2 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 9.5
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19971 469.2 578.4 -4.4 4.3 -0.2 117.5 -86.5 23.5 19972 5941.9 596.4 13.0 4.7 3.2 100.1 -68.2 26.6 19973 3636.4 631.4 25.6 4.0 2.8 120.2 -33.8 35.4 19974 2033.3 620.6 -6.7 4.3 0.1 154.6 -25.0 38.3 19981 6508.8 565.0 -31.3 5.1 5.0 155.6 19.6 36.8 19982 633.7 566.4 1.0 5.0 0.7 192.5 33.0 32.0 19983 -6455.5 568.4 1.4 5.0 2.7 222.8 65.7 35.7 19984 9612.7 550.8 -11.8 4.4 4.3 227.9 57.1 58.4 19991 2323.6 571.6 16.0 3.7 1.7 247.8 85.1 49.0 19992 3940.3 579.0 5.3 2.8 -1.1 292.0 116.5 36.2 19993 -3101.4 574.5 -3.1 2.3 2.0 334.7 132.0 38.4 19994 13255.6 615.9 32.1 1.6 6.0 352.2 143.2 45.0 20001 2724.8 634.7 12.8 0.8 -0.8 399.8 212.8 33.2 20002 -3733.0 661.9 18.3 1.3 7.8 417.5 209.0 34.7 20003 -752.0 655.0 -4.1 0.8 1.3 451.4 229.9 34.8 20004 -6568.7 612.1 -23.7 1.1 2.5 453.3 222.4 28.7 20011 -7504.8 553.3 -33.2 1.1 -0.5 420.2 205.4 22.3 20012 2797.0 554.7 1.0 1.1 2.4 406.7 186.7 21.3 20013 -7360.0 552.4 -1.6 3.9 1.8 335.8 -8.2 19.3 20014 678.9 521.6 -20.5 2.3 1.0 381.0 92.9 31.7 20021 946.8 498.7 -16.4 2.2 0.4 416.9 75.7 28.0 20022 1125.3 482.0 -12.8 2.1 0.6 446.2 60.2 25.0 20023 1201.6 475.1 -5.6 2.0 1.0 471.1 48.8 23.3 20024 1268.3 479.6 3.8 2.2 1.4 486.0 26.5 23.3 20031 1287.3 487.5 6.8 2.1 1.6 499.3 22.9 24.4 20032 1303.9 496.7 7.7 2.1 1.6 512.0 20.7 25.9 20033 1298.8 506.0 7.6 2.1 1.5 524.3 19.1 27.6 20034 1299.2 516.2 8.4 2.1 1.5 536.7 9.7 29.5 20041 1285.2 525.8 7.6 2.1 1.5 549.3 8.3 31.3 20042 1279.0 534.4 6.7 2.0 1.5 562.0 6.2 32.8 20043 1279.8 542.4 6.1 2.0 1.4 574.8 3.5 34.0 20044 1298.1 551.2 6.7 2.0 1.5 587.9 -8.2 35.2 20051 1301.3 559.6 6.2 1.9 1.5 601.1 -11.7 36.2 20052 1308.8 567.6 5.9 1.9 1.5 614.4 -15.8 37.1 20053 1321.0 575.4 5.6 1.8 1.5 627.8 -20.4 37.8 20054 1349.9 584.5 6.5 1.8 1.6 641.6 -34.0 38.7
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19971 -8.9 11.1 7.5 702.1 9.8 -4.5 19972 26.2 7.8 17.6 706.3 2.4 -7.4 19973 -1.6 7.5 10.6 709.2 1.7 -2.5 19974 -3.5 3.0 -0.8 709.8 0.3 -2.5 19981 -20.9 2.1 0.5 719.8 5.8 -10.6 19982 28.9 10.4 -4.0 719.2 -0.3 -4.3 19983 -9.2 11.5 -2.2 720.3 0.6 -4.8 19984 11.5 7.2 16.3 719.3 -0.6 -0.2 19991 -7.3 14.6 -6.8 731.6 7.0 -2.4 19992 3.0 1.0 4.2 734.0 1.3 5.4 19993 16.1 3.4 9.7 735.1 0.6 6.0 19994 32.3 11.0 12.2 737.3 1.2 5.4 20001 -27.0 11.6 9.0 750.0 7.1 6.2 20002 26.7 -6.7 13.4 765.2 8.4 0.8 20003 -18.3 4.3 10.5 768.7 1.8 4.5 20004 11.1 3.8 -4.0 777.4 4.6 0.5 20011 6.7 13.4 -1.2 805.8 15.4 -3.0 20012 2.3 13.9 -11.9 816.3 5.3 -6.0 20013 6.0 -3.8 -16.6 831.8 7.8 -17.5 20014 3.0 3.0 1.0 848.0 8.0 1.5 20021 3.0 3.0 1.0 864.4 8.0 1.5 20022 3.0 3.0 1.0 881.2 8.0 1.5 20023 3.0 3.0 1.0 898.3 8.0 1.5 20024 3.0 3.0 4.0 915.8 8.0 1.5 20031 3.0 3.0 4.0 933.6 8.0 1.5 20032 3.0 3.0 4.0 951.7 8.0 1.5 20033 3.0 3.0 4.0 970.2 8.0 1.5 20034 3.0 3.0 4.0 989.1 8.0 1.5 20041 3.0 3.0 4.0 1008.3 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 4.0 1027.9 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 4.0 1047.8 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 4.0 1068.2 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 4.0 1088.9 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 4.0 1110.1 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 4.0 1131.7 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 4.0 1153.6 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1818.2 871.3 212.2 97.2 637.5 19992 1849.5 891.8 213.8 97.9 646.0 19993 1887.0 914.3 216.3 101.0 655.4 19994 1936.5 935.9 230.8 106.1 663.7 20001 2003.0 976.6 239.3 108.6 678.5 20002 2042.5 1001.1 242.3 111.5 687.6 20003 2064.3 1019.8 237.6 111.9 695.0 20004 2077.5 1040.5 219.4 112.7 704.9 20011 2087.4 1051.4 205.0 112.2 718.8 20012 2091.5 1060.0 197.3 112.0 722.2 20013 1928.9 898.4 196.8 110.6 723.1 20014 2027.8 999.4 189.5 111.5 727.4 20021 2034.4 1005.9 184.1 112.5 731.9 20022 2043.3 1013.0 180.1 113.4 736.7 20023 2056.9 1021.4 178.5 114.5 742.5 20024 2060.6 1015.8 179.6 115.6 749.6 20031 2083.7 1027.7 181.5 116.8 757.7 20032 2109.0 1040.8 183.6 118.1 766.5 20033 2135.5 1054.6 185.8 119.4 775.7 20034 2155.0 1060.8 188.2 120.8 785.2 20041 2183.1 1075.6 190.5 122.2 794.9 20042 2211.3 1090.5 192.5 123.6 804.7 20043 2239.5 1105.7 194.4 125.0 814.4 20044 2259.6 1112.4 196.5 126.5 824.2 20051 2288.6 1128.0 198.5 128.0 834.2 20052 2317.7 1143.7 200.3 129.5 844.1 20053 2347.0 1159.7 202.2 131.0 854.1 20054 2368.2 1167.0 204.3 132.6 864.3
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19971 1659.2 451.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1688.4 444.2 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1733.1 462.3 731.6 8.5 225.5 265.3 39.9 85.1 19992 1733.0 457.9 734.0 10.1 223.8 264.6 42.6 116.5 19993 1755.0 470.6 735.1 8.9 233.4 262.1 44.9 132.0 19994 1793.3 487.6 737.3 19.1 239.3 263.7 46.3 143.2 20001 1790.2 483.4 750.0 8.7 237.2 264.2 46.7 212.8 20002 1833.5 503.8 765.2 9.9 244.2 264.4 46.0 209.0 20003 1834.4 493.6 768.7 11.8 250.9 262.9 46.5 229.9 20004 1855.1 494.1 777.4 25.5 250.1 259.9 48.1 222.4 20011 1882.0 507.5 805.8 5.8 264.0 253.5 45.4 205.4 20012 1904.8 510.1 816.3 7.1 281.2 242.5 47.6 186.7 20013 1937.1 516.7 831.8 6.9 279.8 232.5 69.4 -8.2 20014 1934.9 517.2 848.0 6.9 285.2 229.7 48.0 92.9 20021 1958.6 521.9 864.4 6.9 290.8 226.6 48.0 75.7 20022 1983.0 526.6 881.2 6.9 296.4 223.8 48.0 60.2 20023 2008.1 531.5 898.3 6.9 302.2 221.1 48.0 48.8 20024 2034.1 536.6 915.8 6.9 308.1 218.8 48.0 26.5 20031 2060.9 541.8 933.6 6.9 314.0 216.5 48.0 22.9 20032 2088.3 547.3 951.7 6.9 320.1 214.2 48.0 20.7 20033 2116.4 553.0 970.2 6.9 326.4 212.0 48.0 19.1 20034 2145.3 558.8 989.1 6.9 332.7 209.8 48.0 9.7 20041 2174.9 564.9 1008.3 6.9 339.2 207.7 48.0 8.3 20042 2205.1 571.1 1027.9 6.9 345.8 205.5 48.0 6.2 20043 2236.0 577.4 1047.8 6.9 352.5 203.4 48.0 3.5 20044 2267.8 583.8 1068.2 6.9 359.3 201.5 48.0 -8.2 20051 2300.3 590.4 1088.9 6.9 366.3 199.7 48.0 -11.7 20052 2333.5 597.1 1110.1 6.9 373.4 198.0 48.0 -15.8 20053 2367.4 603.9 1131.7 6.9 380.7 196.3 48.0 -20.4 20054 2402.3 610.7 1153.6 6.9 388.1 194.9 48.0 -34.0
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1118.5 249.1 34.0 599.8 10.1 225.5 19992 1126.5 250.9 34.1 607.6 10.1 223.8 19993 1151.4 257.1 34.4 616.4 10.1 233.4 19994 1178.8 266.6 36.5 626.3 10.1 239.3 20001 1194.5 268.7 37.7 640.8 10.1 237.2 20002 1215.4 276.2 38.2 646.8 10.0 244.2 20003 1234.3 280.4 37.3 655.7 10.0 250.9 20004 1246.5 289.3 34.1 662.9 10.1 250.1 20011 1273.4 293.8 31.8 673.5 10.3 264.0 20012 1294.3 291.4 30.7 680.4 10.6 281.2 20013 1303.9 298.6 30.6 684.1 10.8 279.8 20014 1314.6 299.2 29.5 689.9 10.8 285.2 20021 1327.0 301.1 28.6 695.6 10.8 290.8 20022 1340.1 303.2 28.0 701.7 10.8 296.4 20023 1354.5 305.6 27.8 708.1 10.8 302.2 20024 1370.7 308.6 27.9 715.2 10.8 308.1 20031 1387.9 312.1 28.2 722.7 10.8 314.0 20032 1405.9 315.9 28.6 730.5 10.8 320.1 20033 1424.5 319.9 28.9 738.6 10.8 326.4 20034 1443.9 324.1 29.3 747.0 10.8 332.7 20041 1463.7 328.4 29.6 755.7 10.8 339.2 20042 1483.8 332.8 30.0 764.5 10.8 345.8 20043 1504.1 337.2 30.2 773.4 10.8 352.5 20044 1524.9 341.7 30.6 782.5 10.8 359.3 20051 1545.9 346.2 30.9 791.8 10.8 366.3 20052 1567.3 350.8 31.2 801.1 10.8 373.4 20053 1588.9 355.4 31.5 810.5 10.8 380.7 20054 1611.0 360.2 31.8 820.2 10.8 388.1
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 38.3 19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 58.4 19991 1069.5 832.9 247.0 0.0 0.4 -10.0 49.0 19992 1090.3 849.2 251.6 0.0 0.3 -10.2 36.2 19993 1113.0 867.3 256.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.2 38.4 19994 1133.8 883.9 260.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.0 45.0 20001 1161.3 907.2 263.9 -0.3 0.3 -9.2 33.2 20002 1180.7 922.3 268.3 -0.4 0.4 -9.1 34.7 20003 1199.5 936.6 272.7 -0.2 0.4 -9.2 34.8 20004 1217.8 950.0 277.8 -0.2 0.4 -9.4 28.7 20011 1251.1 966.7 282.9 -0.5 0.4 2.4 22.3 20012 1273.0 981.3 288.3 -0.8 0.4 4.6 21.3 20013 1284.6 991.0 292.9 -0.9 0.4 2.0 19.3 20014 1282.9 982.8 299.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 31.7 20021 1299.0 992.3 306.0 -0.9 0.4 2.0 28.0 20022 1315.2 1002.0 312.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 25.0 20023 1331.3 1011.9 318.7 -0.9 0.4 2.0 23.3 20024 1347.3 1022.1 324.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 23.3 20031 1363.5 1032.8 330.0 -0.9 0.4 2.0 24.4 20032 1380.0 1043.9 335.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 25.9 20033 1396.9 1055.4 340.9 -0.9 0.4 2.0 27.6 20034 1414.4 1067.3 346.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 29.5 20041 1432.4 1079.6 352.2 -0.9 0.4 2.0 31.3 20042 1451.0 1092.2 358.1 -0.9 0.4 2.0 32.8 20043 1470.1 1105.0 364.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 34.0 20044 1489.7 1118.2 370.8 -0.9 0.4 2.0 35.2 20051 1509.7 1131.6 377.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 36.2 20052 1530.2 1145.2 384.3 -0.9 0.4 2.0 37.1 20053 1551.0 1159.0 391.3 -0.9 0.4 2.0 37.8 20054 1572.3 1173.1 398.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 38.7
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19971 46.9 -12.6 -4.6 117.5 -84.7 -62.5 19972 62.4 -31.9 -0.3 100.1 -67.6 -62.7 19973 22.5 -56.5 2.1 120.2 -32.6 -55.8 19974 39.7 -121.6 1.5 154.6 -22.7 -51.5 19981 76.3 -188.1 -16.4 155.6 21.9 -49.3 19982 75.1 -214.6 -20.9 192.5 25.2 -57.3 19983 61.7 -269.8 -18.2 222.8 62.2 -58.6 19984 21.6 -250.9 -14.8 227.9 54.3 -38.0 19991 -24.7 -276.3 25.4 247.8 83.4 -55.6 19992 -81.2 -272.2 20.2 292.0 106.9 -65.6 19993 -116.9 -314.3 33.4 334.7 125.9 -62.7 19994 -163.9 -298.0 40.5 352.2 131.6 -62.4 20001 -225.0 -342.7 37.5 399.8 211.6 -81.2 20002 -188.2 -396.9 32.5 417.5 204.2 -69.1 20003 -215.8 -426.3 28.5 451.4 231.9 -69.7 20004 -193.1 -429.1 28.7 453.3 216.1 -75.9 20011 -199.1 -357.4 24.5 420.2 202.4 -90.6 20012 -194.3 -318.0 28.0 406.7 178.7 -101.0 20013 14.3 -270.0 30.9 335.8 -16.8 -94.2 20014 -97.2 -314.2 32.1 381.0 83.0 -84.7 20021 -97.6 -325.9 33.3 416.9 64.7 -91.4 20022 -101.8 -329.5 34.5 446.2 47.9 -97.3 20023 -107.3 -332.6 35.6 471.1 35.2 -102.0 20024 -99.4 -330.0 36.9 486.0 11.5 -105.0 20031 -105.3 -331.8 38.1 499.3 6.6 -107.0 20032 -110.3 -335.7 39.5 512.0 3.2 -108.6 20033 -115.5 -339.8 40.9 524.3 0.2 -110.0 20034 -114.2 -342.9 42.3 536.7 -10.6 -111.3 20041 -120.8 -346.1 43.8 549.3 -13.4 -112.8 20042 -127.4 -348.7 45.4 562.0 -16.8 -114.5 20043 -133.9 -350.3 47.0 574.8 -21.0 -116.6 20044 -133.3 -350.3 48.6 587.9 -34.1 -118.8 20051 -140.6 -350.6 50.2 601.1 -39.0 -121.1 20052 -147.3 -350.8 51.9 614.4 -44.6 -123.7 20053 -153.7 -350.6 53.6 627.8 -50.7 -126.4 20054 -152.5 -349.5 55.3 641.6 -65.8 -129.0 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19971 8124.1 5429.9 635.1 1626.8 3168.0 19972 8279.9 5470.8 624.4 1627.3 3219.1 19973 8390.9 5575.9 652.4 1653.1 3270.4 19974 8478.6 5640.6 658.3 1659.0 3323.3 19981 8627.9 5719.9 666.8 1675.8 3377.3 19982 8697.3 5820.0 689.3 1697.2 3433.5 19983 8816.5 5895.1 691.7 1716.7 3486.7 19984 8984.6 5989.1 725.1 1744.4 3519.6 19991 9093.2 6080.8 731.6 1776.4 3572.8 19992 9161.3 6197.1 754.9 1814.7 3627.5 19993 9297.5 6298.4 767.9 1841.4 3689.1 19994 9522.4 6424.7 789.4 1892.9 3742.4 20001 9668.6 6581.9 820.7 1942.5 3818.7 20002 9857.7 6674.9 813.8 1978.3 3882.8 20003 9937.4 6785.5 825.4 2012.4 3947.7 20004 10027.8 6871.3 818.7 2025.1 4027.5 20011 10141.6 6977.6 838.1 2047.1 4092.4 20012 10202.4 7044.6 844.7 2062.3 4137.6 20013 10247.7 7058.9 842.2 2057.8 4158.9 20014 10285.0 7118.3 842.6 2066.1 4209.7 20021 10330.5 7177.8 843.6 2075.9 4258.4 20022 10384.6 7240.5 845.8 2088.1 4306.6 20023 10455.9 7307.0 849.5 2102.6 4354.8 20024 10549.9 7380.3 855.9 2119.8 4404.5 20031 10656.1 7457.1 863.5 2138.8 4454.7 20032 10770.0 7537.4 872.3 2159.2 4505.9 20033 10888.4 7620.7 882.1 2180.6 4558.0 20034 11011.7 7708.1 893.2 2203.2 4611.7 20041 11136.8 7797.5 904.9 2226.4 4666.2 20042 11262.2 7888.2 916.8 2249.9 4721.4 20043 11387.8 7980.1 929.1 2273.8 4777.3 20044 11516.0 8074.6 942.1 2298.2 4834.4 20051 11645.0 8170.0 955.2 2322.8 4892.0 20052 11774.7 8266.2 968.4 2347.6 4950.2 20053 11905.1 8363.2 981.7 2372.6 5008.9 20054 12039.2 8462.8 995.7 2398.2 5068.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19971 1324.3 1275.5 955.5 320.0 48.8 19972 1397.7 1310.0 984.3 325.7 87.7 19973 1405.7 1355.8 1026.0 329.8 49.9 19974 1434.4 1369.3 1031.8 337.5 65.1 19981 1528.7 1422.0 1074.8 347.2 106.7 19982 1498.4 1457.5 1099.9 357.6 40.9 19983 1538.6 1469.1 1098.6 370.5 69.5 19984 1589.3 1513.9 1131.7 382.2 75.4 19991 1621.3 1541.1 1145.3 395.8 80.2 19992 1595.7 1565.7 1163.1 402.6 30.0 19993 1631.8 1592.7 1187.2 405.5 39.1 19994 1698.1 1613.2 1202.9 410.3 84.9 20001 1708.9 1678.0 1250.9 427.1 30.9 20002 1792.4 1717.0 1288.3 428.7 75.4 20003 1788.4 1735.9 1314.9 421.0 52.5 20004 1780.3 1741.6 1318.2 423.4 38.7 20011 1722.7 1748.2 1311.2 437.0 -25.5 20012 1669.8 1706.4 1260.2 446.2 -36.6 20013 1622.6 1669.2 1219.7 449.5 -46.6 20014 1648.9 1661.8 1220.0 441.8 -12.8 20021 1652.0 1658.2 1218.6 439.6 -6.1 20022 1653.7 1657.3 1217.0 440.3 -3.6 20023 1664.0 1661.2 1217.9 443.3 2.8 20024 1679.5 1672.3 1222.8 449.5 7.1 20031 1701.6 1686.6 1230.8 455.7 15.0 20032 1726.5 1703.8 1242.0 461.8 22.7 20033 1751.7 1723.2 1255.4 467.8 28.4 20034 1777.3 1745.0 1270.6 474.4 32.4 20041 1802.3 1767.0 1286.5 480.5 35.4 20042 1825.9 1788.8 1302.6 486.1 37.1 20043 1848.0 1810.2 1318.7 491.6 37.8 20044 1870.0 1832.3 1334.8 497.5 37.7 20051 1891.6 1853.9 1350.8 503.1 37.8 20052 1912.8 1875.2 1366.8 508.4 37.6 20053 1933.7 1896.3 1382.7 513.6 37.4 20054 1955.4 1918.5 1398.8 519.7 36.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19971 -89.3 927.8 1017.1 1459.2 529.2 930.0 19972 -74.9 966.8 1041.7 1486.3 543.4 942.9 19973 -88.6 988.7 1077.3 1497.9 541.3 956.6 19974 -104.6 982.4 1087.0 1508.2 538.9 969.3 19981 -122.6 974.1 1096.7 1501.9 526.1 975.8 19982 -154.9 959.2 1114.1 1533.8 542.9 990.9 19983 -165.3 946.7 1112.0 1548.1 539.5 1008.6 19984 -164.1 979.7 1143.8 1570.3 548.4 1021.9 19991 -199.8 960.2 1160.0 1590.9 549.8 1041.1 19992 -241.1 971.3 1212.4 1609.6 553.1 1056.5 19993 -273.9 996.6 1270.5 1641.2 565.6 1075.6 19994 -288.7 1031.0 1319.7 1688.3 587.6 1100.7 20001 -333.9 1059.7 1393.6 1711.7 578.5 1133.2 20002 -350.7 1099.7 1450.4 1741.1 601.0 1140.1 20003 -380.7 1131.1 1511.8 1744.2 587.0 1157.2 20004 -390.6 1121.0 1511.6 1766.8 594.2 1172.6 20011 -363.8 1117.4 1481.2 1805.1 605.3 1199.8 20012 -347.4 1079.6 1427.0 1835.4 609.9 1225.5 20013 -277.3 1028.1 1305.4 1843.5 617.1 1226.4 20014 -322.1 1033.9 1356.0 1839.9 618.8 1221.1 20021 -357.6 1039.6 1397.3 1858.3 624.8 1233.5 20022 -386.5 1045.3 1431.8 1877.0 630.8 1246.2 20023 -411.1 1051.0 1462.1 1896.0 636.9 1259.1 20024 -425.5 1064.8 1490.3 1915.6 643.3 1272.3 20031 -438.5 1078.9 1517.4 1935.9 649.9 1286.1 20032 -450.7 1093.5 1544.3 1956.9 656.6 1300.3 20033 -462.6 1108.6 1571.2 1978.6 663.7 1314.9 20034 -474.6 1124.2 1598.8 2000.9 670.9 1330.0 20041 -486.8 1140.1 1626.9 2023.8 678.3 1345.5 20042 -499.1 1156.5 1655.6 2047.2 685.9 1361.4 20043 -511.5 1173.2 1684.7 2071.1 693.6 1377.5 20044 -524.1 1190.2 1714.3 2095.5 701.5 1394.0 20051 -536.9 1207.5 1744.4 2120.3 709.5 1410.8 20052 -549.8 1225.2 1774.9 2145.5 717.6 1427.8 20053 -562.7 1243.1 1805.8 2171.0 725.9 1445.1 20054 -576.0 1261.3 1837.3 2197.0 734.3 1462.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19971 8016.4 5350.8 641.5 1605.6 3103.7 19972 8131.9 5375.3 636.5 1608.2 3130.6 19973 8216.6 5462.8 670.5 1631.7 3160.6 19974 8272.9 5508.0 680.9 1634.1 3193.0 19981 8396.3 5577.2 692.5 1656.3 3228.4 19982 8442.9 5662.5 719.7 1680.5 3262.3 19983 8528.5 5715.9 727.1 1693.6 3295.2 19984 8667.9 5790.2 767.3 1715.3 3307.6 19991 8733.5 5860.1 780.5 1738.8 3340.8 19992 8771.2 5944.5 809.5 1757.2 3377.8 19993 8871.5 6009.5 827.2 1768.6 3413.7 19994 9049.9 6095.8 854.2 1801.1 3440.5 20001 9102.5 6188.1 892.1 1823.8 3472.2 20002 9229.4 6241.0 886.5 1844.9 3509.6 20003 9260.1 6308.4 904.1 1864.1 3540.2 20004 9303.9 6355.0 899.4 1866.8 3588.8 20011 9334.5 6405.5 922.4 1878.0 3605.1 20012 9341.7 6447.3 938.1 1879.4 3629.8 20013 9333.4 6466.7 942.0 1882.1 3642.6 20014 9332.9 6501.5 939.9 1884.6 3677.1 20021 9336.9 6536.3 938.4 1888.4 3709.5 20022 9348.8 6573.6 938.3 1894.2 3741.2 20023 9376.9 6613.8 939.7 1901.9 3772.2 20024 9424.6 6658.8 943.9 1911.5 3803.4 20031 9482.0 6705.3 949.1 1922.2 3834.0 20032 9543.6 6753.2 955.4 1933.6 3864.2 20033 9606.3 6802.2 962.5 1945.5 3894.3 20034 9670.6 6853.3 970.8 1957.9 3924.7 20041 9733.9 6904.7 979.4 1970.4 3954.9 20042 9795.3 6956.1 988.2 1983.0 3984.9 20043 9854.8 7007.4 997.1 1995.5 4014.8 20044 9914.9 7060.1 1006.7 2008.2 4045.3 20051 9974.3 7112.7 1016.2 2020.8 4075.6 20052 10032.9 7165.2 1025.8 2033.4 4106.0 20053 10091.0 7217.7 1035.3 2046.0 4136.3 20054 10150.9 7271.7 1045.4 2058.9 4167.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19971 1324.8 1275.5 960.8 314.7 49.3 19972 1399.7 1311.4 992.7 318.7 88.3 19973 1408.6 1357.3 1037.0 320.3 51.3 19974 1438.0 1371.9 1047.0 324.9 66.1 19981 1545.6 1432.5 1099.5 333.0 113.1 19982 1514.8 1472.8 1132.3 340.5 42.0 19983 1557.9 1486.1 1136.6 349.5 71.8 19984 1612.8 1532.8 1175.4 357.4 80.0 19991 1642.3 1558.9 1192.6 366.3 83.4 19992 1616.5 1583.8 1214.9 368.9 32.7 19993 1652.4 1612.8 1244.6 368.2 39.6 19994 1724.8 1632.1 1262.4 369.7 92.7 20001 1715.6 1686.7 1309.4 377.3 28.9 20002 1803.1 1724.2 1347.7 376.5 78.9 20003 1789.1 1737.4 1371.1 366.3 51.7 20004 1782.6 1739.8 1374.5 365.3 42.8 20011 1719.7 1746.8 1373.9 372.9 -27.1 20012 1660.9 1699.2 1320.9 378.3 -38.3 20013 1609.4 1659.8 1279.8 380.0 -50.4 20014 1635.2 1649.1 1276.7 372.4 -13.9 20021 1634.7 1641.3 1271.7 369.6 -6.6 20022 1631.9 1635.7 1266.6 369.2 -3.8 20023 1637.5 1634.5 1263.8 370.7 3.0 20024 1647.3 1639.6 1265.0 374.7 7.6 20031 1663.6 1647.6 1269.1 378.6 16.0 20032 1682.3 1658.3 1276.0 382.3 24.0 20033 1700.8 1670.8 1285.0 385.8 30.0 20034 1719.0 1685.0 1295.4 389.7 34.0 20041 1736.3 1699.3 1306.3 393.0 37.0 20042 1751.8 1713.1 1317.1 396.0 38.7 20043 1765.6 1726.4 1327.6 398.7 39.2 20044 1778.8 1739.9 1338.1 401.8 38.9 20051 1791.6 1752.7 1348.2 404.5 38.8 20052 1803.7 1765.2 1358.1 407.0 38.6 20053 1815.4 1777.3 1367.9 409.4 38.1 20054 1827.6 1790.2 1377.8 412.4 37.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19971 -94.0 940.3 1034.3 1434.5 19972 -100.6 979.2 1079.8 1457.0 19973 -119.6 1004.2 1123.8 1464.8 19974 -139.1 1002.1 1141.2 1465.2 19981 -180.8 1003.4 1184.2 1455.8 19982 -223.1 993.1 1216.2 1482.5 19983 -241.3 987.6 1228.9 1489.6 19984 -239.2 1025.6 1264.8 1504.5 19991 -283.0 1007.6 1290.6 1511.9 19992 -313.4 1018.0 1331.4 1516.3 19993 -333.3 1041.8 1375.1 1532.8 19994 -337.7 1072.1 1409.8 1564.6 20001 -371.1 1095.5 1466.6 1559.8 20002 -392.8 1130.6 1523.4 1577.0 20003 -411.3 1159.3 1570.6 1569.4 20004 -421.0 1147.5 1568.5 1582.2 20011 -404.5 1144.1 1548.6 1602.7 20012 -406.7 1108.3 1515.0 1622.1 20013 -395.0 1059.0 1454.0 1629.4 20014 -443.2 1061.6 1504.8 1616.4 20021 -480.5 1064.3 1544.8 1623.4 20022 -510.2 1066.9 1577.1 1630.6 20023 -534.9 1069.6 1604.5 1637.7 20024 -549.2 1080.1 1629.4 1644.9 20031 -562.1 1090.8 1652.8 1652.2 20032 -574.3 1101.5 1675.8 1659.4 20033 -586.4 1112.4 1698.7 1666.8 20034 -598.8 1123.3 1722.1 1674.1 20041 -611.5 1134.4 1745.9 1681.6 20042 -624.5 1145.6 1770.1 1689.0 20043 -637.6 1156.9 1794.5 1696.5 20044 -651.0 1168.3 1819.3 1704.1 20051 -664.6 1179.8 1844.3 1711.6 20052 -678.2 1191.4 1869.6 1719.3 20053 -692.0 1203.1 1895.1 1727.0 20054 -706.0 1215.0 1921.0 1734.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1818.2 871.3 212.2 97.2 637.5 19992 1849.5 891.8 213.8 97.9 646.0 19993 1887.0 914.3 216.3 101.0 655.4 19994 1936.5 935.9 230.8 106.1 663.7 20001 2003.0 976.6 239.3 108.6 678.5 20002 2042.5 1001.1 242.3 111.5 687.6 20003 2064.3 1019.8 237.6 111.9 695.0 20004 2077.5 1040.5 219.4 112.7 704.9 20011 2087.4 1051.4 205.0 112.2 718.8 20012 2091.5 1060.0 197.3 112.0 722.2 20013 1928.9 898.4 196.8 110.6 723.1 20014 2027.8 999.4 189.5 111.5 727.4 20021 2034.4 1005.9 184.1 112.5 731.9 20022 2043.3 1013.0 180.1 113.4 736.7 20023 2056.9 1021.4 178.5 114.5 742.5 20024 2060.6 1015.8 179.6 115.6 749.6 20031 2083.7 1027.7 181.5 116.8 757.7 20032 2109.0 1040.8 183.6 118.1 766.5 20033 2135.5 1054.6 185.8 119.4 775.7 20034 2155.0 1060.8 188.2 120.8 785.2 20041 2183.1 1075.6 190.5 122.2 794.9 20042 2211.3 1090.5 192.5 123.6 804.7 20043 2239.5 1105.7 194.4 125.0 814.4 20044 2259.6 1112.4 196.5 126.5 824.2 20051 2288.6 1128.0 198.5 128.0 834.2 20052 2317.7 1143.7 200.3 129.5 844.1 20053 2347.0 1159.7 202.2 131.0 854.1 20054 2368.2 1167.0 204.3 132.6 864.3
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19971 1659.2 451.3 709.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 714.1 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 717.2 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 729.4 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1688.4 444.2 727.9 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 726.3 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 729.7 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 738.5 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1733.1 462.3 740.1 731.6 8.5 225.5 265.3 39.9 85.1 19992 1733.0 457.9 744.1 734.0 10.1 223.8 264.6 42.6 116.5 19993 1755.0 470.6 744.0 735.1 8.9 233.4 262.1 44.9 132.0 19994 1793.3 487.6 756.4 737.3 19.1 239.3 263.7 46.3 143.2 20001 1790.2 483.4 758.7 750.0 8.7 237.2 264.2 46.7 212.8 20002 1833.5 503.8 775.1 765.2 9.9 244.2 264.4 46.0 209.0 20003 1834.4 493.6 780.5 768.7 11.8 250.9 262.9 46.5 229.9 20004 1855.1 494.1 802.9 777.4 25.5 250.1 259.9 48.1 222.4 20011 1882.0 507.5 811.6 805.8 5.8 264.0 253.5 45.4 205.4 20012 1904.8 510.1 823.4 816.3 7.1 281.2 242.5 47.6 186.7 20013 1937.1 516.7 838.7 831.8 6.9 279.8 232.5 69.4 -8.2 20014 1934.9 517.2 854.9 848.0 6.9 285.2 229.7 48.0 92.9 20021 1958.6 521.9 871.3 864.4 6.9 290.8 226.6 48.0 75.7 20022 1983.0 526.6 888.1 881.2 6.9 296.4 223.8 48.0 60.2 20023 2008.1 531.5 905.2 898.3 6.9 302.2 221.1 48.0 48.8 20024 2034.1 536.6 922.7 915.8 6.9 308.1 218.8 48.0 26.5 20031 2060.9 541.8 940.5 933.6 6.9 314.0 216.5 48.0 22.9 20032 2088.3 547.3 958.6 951.7 6.9 320.1 214.2 48.0 20.7 20033 2116.4 553.0 977.1 970.2 6.9 326.4 212.0 48.0 19.1 20034 2145.3 558.8 996.0 989.1 6.9 332.7 209.8 48.0 9.7 20041 2174.9 564.9 1015.2 1008.3 6.9 339.2 207.7 48.0 8.3 20042 2205.1 571.1 1034.8 1027.9 6.9 345.8 205.5 48.0 6.2 20043 2236.0 577.4 1054.7 1047.8 6.9 352.5 203.4 48.0 3.5 20044 2267.8 583.8 1075.1 1068.2 6.9 359.3 201.5 48.0 -8.2 20051 2300.3 590.4 1095.8 1088.9 6.9 366.3 199.7 48.0 -11.7 20052 2333.5 597.1 1117.0 1110.1 6.9 373.4 198.0 48.0 -15.8 20053 2367.4 603.9 1138.6 1131.7 6.9 380.7 196.3 48.0 -20.4 20054 2402.3 610.7 1160.5 1153.6 6.9 388.1 194.9 48.0 -34.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1118.5 249.1 34.0 599.8 10.1 225.5 19992 1126.5 250.9 34.1 607.6 10.1 223.8 19993 1151.4 257.1 34.4 616.4 10.1 233.4 19994 1178.8 266.6 36.5 626.3 10.1 239.3 20001 1194.5 268.7 37.7 640.8 10.1 237.2 20002 1215.4 276.2 38.2 646.8 10.0 244.2 20003 1234.3 280.4 37.3 655.7 10.0 250.9 20004 1246.5 289.3 34.1 662.9 10.1 250.1 20011 1273.4 293.8 31.8 673.5 10.3 264.0 20012 1294.3 291.4 30.7 680.4 10.6 281.2 20013 1303.9 298.6 30.6 684.1 10.8 279.8 20014 1314.6 299.2 29.5 689.9 10.8 285.2 20021 1327.0 301.1 28.6 695.6 10.8 290.8 20022 1340.1 303.2 28.0 701.7 10.8 296.4 20023 1354.5 305.6 27.8 708.1 10.8 302.2 20024 1370.7 308.6 27.9 715.2 10.8 308.1 20031 1387.9 312.1 28.2 722.7 10.8 314.0 20032 1405.9 315.9 28.6 730.5 10.8 320.1 20033 1424.5 319.9 28.9 738.6 10.8 326.4 20034 1443.9 324.1 29.3 747.0 10.8 332.7 20041 1463.7 328.4 29.6 755.7 10.8 339.2 20042 1483.8 332.8 30.0 764.5 10.8 345.8 20043 1504.1 337.2 30.2 773.4 10.8 352.5 20044 1524.9 341.7 30.6 782.5 10.8 359.3 20051 1545.9 346.2 30.9 791.8 10.8 366.3 20052 1567.3 350.8 31.2 801.1 10.8 373.4 20053 1588.9 355.4 31.5 810.5 10.8 380.7 20054 1611.0 360.2 31.8 820.2 10.8 388.1
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 0.0 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 0.0 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 0.0 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 0.0 38.3 19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 0.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 0.0 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 0.0 58.4 19991 1069.5 832.9 247.0 0.0 0.4 -10.0 0.0 49.0 19992 1090.3 849.2 251.6 0.0 0.3 -10.2 0.0 36.2 19993 1113.0 867.3 256.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.2 0.0 38.4 19994 1133.8 883.9 260.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.0 0.0 45.0 20001 1161.3 907.2 263.9 -0.3 0.3 -9.2 0.0 33.2 20002 1180.7 922.3 268.3 -0.4 0.4 -9.1 0.0 34.7 20003 1199.5 936.6 272.7 -0.2 0.4 -9.2 0.0 34.8 20004 1217.8 950.0 277.8 -0.2 0.4 -9.4 0.0 28.7 20011 1251.1 966.7 282.9 -0.5 0.4 2.4 0.0 22.3 20012 1273.0 981.3 288.3 -0.8 0.4 4.6 0.0 21.3 20013 1284.6 991.0 292.9 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 19.3 20014 1282.9 982.8 299.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 31.7 20021 1299.0 992.3 306.0 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 28.0 20022 1315.2 1002.0 312.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 25.0 20023 1331.3 1011.9 318.7 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 23.3 20024 1347.3 1022.1 324.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 23.3 20031 1363.5 1032.8 330.0 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 24.4 20032 1380.0 1043.9 335.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 25.9 20033 1396.9 1055.4 340.9 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 27.6 20034 1414.4 1067.3 346.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 29.5 20041 1432.4 1079.6 352.2 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 31.3 20042 1451.0 1092.2 358.1 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 32.8 20043 1470.1 1105.0 364.4 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 34.0 20044 1489.7 1118.2 370.8 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 35.2 20051 1509.7 1131.6 377.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 36.2 20052 1530.2 1145.2 384.3 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 37.1 20053 1551.0 1159.0 391.3 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 37.8 20054 1572.3 1173.1 398.5 -0.9 0.4 2.0 0.0 38.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19971 101.3 101.5 99.0 101.3 102.1 19972 101.8 101.8 98.1 101.2 102.8 19973 102.1 102.1 97.3 101.3 103.5 19974 102.5 102.4 96.7 101.5 104.1 19981 102.8 102.6 96.3 101.2 104.6 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.0 105.2 19983 103.4 103.1 95.1 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.4 94.5 101.7 106.4 19991 104.1 103.8 93.7 102.2 106.9 19992 104.4 104.2 93.3 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.1 108.1 19994 105.2 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.2 106.4 92.0 106.5 110.0 20002 106.8 107.0 91.8 107.2 110.6 20003 107.3 107.6 91.3 108.0 111.5 20004 107.8 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.2 20011 108.6 108.9 90.9 109.0 113.5 20012 109.2 109.3 90.0 109.7 114.0 20013 109.8 109.2 89.4 109.3 114.2 20014 110.2 109.5 89.6 109.6 114.5 20021 110.6 109.8 89.9 109.9 114.8 20022 111.1 110.1 90.1 110.2 115.1 20023 111.5 110.5 90.4 110.6 115.4 20024 111.9 110.8 90.7 110.9 115.8 20031 112.4 111.2 91.0 111.3 116.2 20032 112.9 111.6 91.3 111.7 116.6 20033 113.3 112.0 91.7 112.1 117.0 20034 113.9 112.5 92.0 112.5 117.5 20041 114.4 112.9 92.4 113.0 118.0 20042 115.0 113.4 92.8 113.5 118.5 20043 115.6 113.9 93.2 113.9 119.0 20044 116.1 114.4 93.6 114.4 119.5 20051 116.8 114.9 94.0 114.9 120.0 20052 117.4 115.4 94.4 115.5 120.6 20053 118.0 115.9 94.8 116.0 121.1 20054 118.6 116.4 95.2 116.5 121.6
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19971 100.0 99.4 101.7 98.7 98.3 101.7 19972 99.9 99.2 102.2 98.7 96.5 102.0 19973 99.9 98.9 103.0 98.5 95.9 102.3 19974 99.8 98.5 103.9 98.0 95.3 102.9 19981 99.3 97.8 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.0 97.1 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.5 19983 98.9 96.7 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.8 96.3 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.4 19991 98.9 96.0 108.1 95.3 89.9 105.2 19992 98.9 95.7 109.1 95.4 91.1 106.2 19993 98.8 95.4 110.1 95.7 92.4 107.1 19994 98.8 95.3 111.0 96.2 93.6 107.9 20001 99.5 95.5 113.2 96.7 95.0 109.7 20002 99.6 95.6 113.9 97.3 95.2 110.4 20003 99.9 95.9 114.9 97.6 96.3 111.1 20004 100.1 95.9 115.9 97.7 96.4 111.7 20011 100.1 95.4 117.2 97.7 95.6 112.6 20012 100.4 95.4 117.9 97.4 94.2 113.1 20013 100.6 95.3 118.3 97.1 89.8 113.1 20014 100.8 95.6 118.6 97.4 90.1 113.8 20021 101.0 95.8 118.9 97.7 90.5 114.5 20022 101.3 96.1 119.3 98.0 90.8 115.1 20023 101.6 96.4 119.6 98.3 91.1 115.8 20024 102.0 96.7 120.0 98.6 91.5 116.5 20031 102.4 97.0 120.4 98.9 91.8 117.2 20032 102.7 97.3 120.8 99.3 92.1 117.9 20033 103.1 97.7 121.3 99.7 92.5 118.7 20034 103.6 98.1 121.7 100.1 92.8 119.5 20041 104.0 98.5 122.2 100.5 93.2 120.4 20042 104.4 98.9 122.8 101.0 93.5 121.2 20043 104.9 99.3 123.3 101.4 93.9 122.1 20044 105.3 99.8 123.8 101.9 94.2 123.0 20051 105.8 100.2 124.4 102.4 94.6 123.9 20052 106.2 100.6 124.9 102.8 94.9 124.8 20053 106.7 101.1 125.5 103.3 95.3 125.7 20054 107.2 101.5 126.0 103.8 95.6 126.7
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment