Ray C. Fair: New Haven 20K Times

					Predicted
					Minimum
No.	Date	Time	Pace	Age	Time	Difference
1	September 4, 1978	1:24:43	6:49	35	1:12:31	12:12
2	September 3, 1979	1:23:02	6:41	36	1:13:06	9:56
3	September 1, 1980	1:35:35	7:41	37	1:13:41	21:54
4	September 7, 1981	sick	-	38	1:14:16	-
5	September 6, 1982	1:25:45	6:54	39	1:14:55	10:50
6	September 5, 1983	1:32:37	7:27	40	1:15:30	17:07
7	September 3, 1984	1:23:49	6:45	41	1:16:05	7:44
8	September 2, 1985	1:19:44	6:25	42	1:16:44	3:00
9	September 1, 1986	1:18:40	6:20	43	1:17:19	1:21
10	September 7, 1987	1:21:27	6:33	44	1:17:58	3:29
11	September 5, 1988	1:21:50	6:35	45	1:18:37	3:13
12	September 7, 1989	1:23:12	6:42	46	1:19:12	4:00
13	September 3, 1990	1:23:15	6:42	47	1:19:51	3:24
14	September 2, 1991	1:20:30	6:29	48	1:20:30	0:00
15	September 7, 1992	1:22:48	6:40	49	1:21:09	1:39
16	September 6, 1993	1:26:57	7:00	50	1:21:48	5:09
17	September 5, 1994	1:29:17	7:11	51	1:22:28	6:49
18	September 4, 1995	1:26:31	6:58	52	1:23:07	3:24
19	September 2, 1996	1:26:13	6:56	53	1:23:46	2:27
20	September 1, 1997	1:32:09	7:25	54	1:24:29	7:40
21	September 7, 1998	1:38:52	7:57	55	1:25:08	13:44
22	September 6, 1999	1:34:35	7:37	56	1:25:52	8:43
23	September 4, 2000	1:30:48	7:18	57	1:26:31	4:17
24	September 3, 2001	1:31:40	7:23	58	1:27:15	4:25
25	September 2, 2002	1:36:22	7:46	59	1:27:54	8:28
26	September 1, 2003	1:36:47	7:47	60	1:28:37	8:10
27	September 6, 2004	1:36:26	7:46	61	1:29:21	7:05
28	September 5, 2005	1:54:44	9:14	62	1:30:04	24:40
29	September 4, 2006	1:49:18	8:48	63	1:30:48	18:30
30	September 3, 2007	1:43:19	8:19	64	1:31:31	11:48
31	September 1, 2008	1:51:49	9:00	65	1:32:15	19:34
32	September 7, 2009	2:05:55	10:08	66	1:33:03	32:52
33	September 6, 2010	1:54:53	9:15	67	1:33:47	21:06
34	September 5, 2011	2:07:10	10:14	68	1:34:30	31:40
35	September 3, 2012	1:58:06	9:30	69	1:35:18	22:48

The predicted minimum times were computed on the aging part of this site: Aging in Sports and Chess. Even though my best time ever was 1:18:40 at age 43, my best age corrected time according to the age factors used on this site was 1:20:30 at age 48. The predicted minimum times above use the 1:20:30 performance at age 48 as the base. As you can see, my last eight races have been way off the regression line. The fault, I fear, is not in the line, but in myself. The results for three other people reported on this site, Barbara Pearce, John Courtmanche, and Amby Burfoot, suggest that the line is fine.