Bob Stephenson: New Haven 20K Times

					Predicted
					Minimum
No.	Date	Time	Pace	Age	Time	Difference
5	September 6, 1982	1:21:51	6:35	33	1:15:33	6:18
6	September 5, 1983	1:26:05	6:56	34	1:15:33	10:32
7	September 3, 1984	1:22:06	6:36	35	1:15:33	6:33
8	September 2, 1985	1:20:09	6:27	36	1:16:09	4:00
9	September 1, 1986	1:27:32	7:03	37	1:16:45	10:47
10	September 7, 1987	1:28:43	7:08	38	1:17:21	11:22
11	September 5, 1988	1:28:02	7:05	39	1:18:02	10:00
12	September 7, 1989	1:45:17	8:28	40	1:18:38	26:39
13	September 3, 1990	1:28:27	7:07	41	1:19:15	9:12
14	September 2, 1991	1:25:04	6:51	42	1:19:55	5:09
15	September 7, 1992	1:31:42	7:23	43	1:20:32	11:10
16	September 6, 1993	--	--	44	1:21:12	--
17	September 5, 1994	1:33:28	7:31	45	1:21:53	11:35
18	September 4, 1995	1:43:29	8:20	46	1:22:30	20:59
19	September 2, 1996	1:42:24	8:14	47	1:23:10	19:14
20	September 1, 1997	1:41:55	8:12	48	1:23:51	18:04
21	September 7, 1998	1:36:09	7:44	49	1:24:32	11:37
22	September 6, 1999	1:34:40	7:37	50	1:25:13	9:27
23	September 4, 2000	1:29:31	7:12	51	1:25:53	3:38
24	September 3, 2001	1:34:05	7:34	52	1:26:34	7:31
25	September 2, 2002	1:27:15	7:01	53	1:27:15	0:00
26	September 1, 2003	1:32:56	7:29	54	1:28:00	4:56
27	September 6, 2004	1:34:03	7:34	55	1:28:41	5:22
28	September 5, 2005	1:37:10	7:49	56	1:29:26	7:44
29	September 4, 2006	1:39:43	8:01	57	1:30:07	9:36
30	September 3, 2007	1:36:38	7:47	58	1:30:53	5:45
31	September 1, 2008	??	??	59	1:31:33	??

The predicted minimum times were computed on the aging part of this site: Aging in Sports and Chess. These calculations are based on an age corrected best time of 1:27:15 at age 53. This is not Bob's best time, which is 1:20:09 at age 36, but it is better age corrected. Bob's time at age 53 age corrected is 3:38 better than his next best time age corrected, which is at age 51. His next two best times age corrected are at age 36, with a difference of 4:00, and at age 54, with a difference of 4:56. So Bob's race at age 53 stands out as by far his best performance. For the 2008 race he is predicted to run 1:31:33 if he is on the regression line, which is a 7:22 pace.