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"How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?,"
June 2012
pdf file.
Abstract
In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic
forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not
variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed
could report in a world in which it
used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its
policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the
Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a
single model.
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