What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem, revised May 2012.

Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea? May 2012.

Has Macro Progressed? Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (2012), 2-10.

Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2012), 99-108.

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,, Stanford University Press, 2012.

A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation, June 2011, submtted.

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update, November 11, 2010.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill, Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation, Business Economics, October 2010, 233-243.

Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108.

Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections, Journal of Politics, April 2009, 612-626.

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations, American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72.

Testing Price Equations, European Economic Review, November 2008, 1424-1437.

Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, 2008, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1.

Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later, (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, Fall 2008, 111-119.

Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model, 2007, economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2007-8.

A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best? 2007, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12.

Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess, Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57.

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency, (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, February 2007, 3-18.

The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update, November 1, 2006.

Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy, 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19.

Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2005, 645-660.

Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics, June 2005.

Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004.

Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s, Business Economics, January 2004, 43-53.

Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations, Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256.

Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models, 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1.

Risk Aversion and Stock Prices, February 2003.

Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 307-341.

Events that Shook the Market, Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732.

On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks, 2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3.

Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules, FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72.

Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy, Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14.

Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71.