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Curriculum Vitae
Ray C. Fair
Date: July 16, 2003
Office Address: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, New Haven, CT
06520-8281
Home Address: 233 Everit Street, New Haven, CT 06511
Phones: Home 203-865-6760, Office 203-432-3715, FAX 203-432-6167
E-mail: ray.fair@yale.edu
Date of Birth: October 4, 1942
Place of Birth: Fresno, CA
Citizenship: United States
Education:
1964-1968: M.I.T., Ph.D., Economics, February 1968
1960-1964: Fresno State College, B.A., Economics, June 1964
Positions:
2000-: Fellow, International Center for Finance at Yale
1979-: Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics,
Yale University
1974-1979: Associate Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of
Economics, Yale University
Fall 1977: Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics,
M.I.T.
1968-1974: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics,
Princeton University
Teaching: Macroeconomic Theory, Econometrics,
Macroeconometric Models
Fellowships:
Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society---1977
Woodrow Wilson Dissertation Fellowship---1967-1968
National Science Foundation Fellowship---1965-1966, 1966-1967
Woodrow Wilson Fellowship---1964-1965
Research:
- "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency,"
(with John F. Oster), October 2003, submitted to the Journal of
Business.
- Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works,
July 2003, Harvard University Press, forthcoming.
- "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models
with Rational Expectations,"
Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256.
- "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy,"
June 2003, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
- "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models,"
June 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,, bepress,
forthcoming.
- "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s,"
May 2003, Business Economics, forthcoming.
- "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard,
Oxford,"
Eastern Economic Journal, Spring 2003, 159-163.
- "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003,
in progress.
- "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
2003, 307-341.
- "Events that Shook the Market,"
Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732.
- "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks,"
2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 1, Article 3,
http://www.bepress.com/bejm/contributions/vol2/iss1/art3.
-
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,
2002, Stanford University Press.
-
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy
Behavior and Interest Rate Rules,"
FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72.
-
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the
Economy," Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14.
- "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71.
-
"What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type
Crises?" May 1999,
for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic
Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished.
-
"Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?"
The American Economic Review, May 1999, 58-62.
- "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability
of Forecasts from
Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished.
- "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999,
unpublished.
- "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced
in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics,
Winter 1999, 1-28.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President:
1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished.
- "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU,"
National Institute Economic Review, April 1998, 90-99.
- "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women
20-24," (with D. J.
Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished.
- "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in
H.M. Amman, D.A.
Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational
Economics, North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169.
- "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric
Models," Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 431-435.
- "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with
E.P. Howrey), Journal
of Monetary Economics, October 1996, 173-193.
- "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The
Journal of
Economic
Perspectives, Summer 1996, 89-102.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992
Update," Political
Behavior, June 1996, 119-139.
- Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press,
1994.
- "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of
Economics and Statistics,
February 1994, 103-118.
- "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models
using Stochastic
Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business
Cycles, Indicators, and
Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176.
- "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in
Macroeconometric Models," Oxford
Economic Papers, 1993, 169-190.
- "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American
Economic Review, May
1993, 287-293.
- "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior,"
The Review of
Economics and Statistics, February 1993, 8-18.
- "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories,
and New Keynesian
Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel,
eds., The Business
Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992,
133-147.
- "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point
Constraints," (with
D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 123-139.
- "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L.
Alexander), in
Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S.
Econometric Models,
Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197.
- "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on
Macroeconomic Equations,"
(with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review,
December 1991, 1276-1294.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988
Update," November 1990, unpublished.
- "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of
Models with Rational
Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied
Econometrics,
October-December 1990, 381-392.
- "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric
Models," (with R. J.
Shiller), The American Economic Review, June 1990, 375-389.
- "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well,"
Journal of Monetary
Economics, November 1989, 353-370.
- "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with
R. J. Shiller), The
Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1989, 325-331.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984
Update," Political
Behavior, 1988, 168-179.
- "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural
Change," (with D.
K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, October 1988,
615-640.
- "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with
K. M. Dominguez and
M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, September
1988, 595-612.
- "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a
Macroeconometric Model," Journal
of Monetary Economics, September 1988, 301-315.
- "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States,"
The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, May 1988, 313-332.
- "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The
Review of Economics
and Statistics, August 1987, 473-480.
- "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model,"
Journal of Policy
Modeling, Spring 1987, 83-123.
- "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further
Results," (with L.
Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model
Reliability, M.I.T. Press,
1986, 191-212.
- "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z.
Griliches and M. D.
Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III,
North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995.
- "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E.
Case), The
American Economic Review, May 1985, 85-90.
- "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American
Economic Review,
March 1985, 239-245.
- Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric
Models, Harvard
University Press, 1984.
- "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation,"
in Price
Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City, 1984, 57-96.
- "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic
Rational Expectations
Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, July 1983,
1169-1185.
- "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy,"
in G. C. Chow and P.
Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic
Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213.
- "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate
Linkages Among
Countries," Journal of Political Economy, June 1982,
507-535.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980
Results," The
Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 322-325.
- "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles
Foundation Discussion
Paper No. 597, June 1981.
- "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary
Policy on the 1980
Economy," The American Economic Review, May 1981,
160-165.
- "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation
Discussion Paper No.
541R, April 1981.
- "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric
Model," (with W.
R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, September 1980, 269-291.
- "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear
Models," Econometrica,
September 1980, 1381-1391.
- "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric
Models," International
Economic Review, June 1980, 355-378.
- "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in
R. Dornbusch and J. A.
Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and
Evidence, The Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239.
- "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational
Expectations in the Bond
and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review,
September 1979, 539-552.
- "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric
Models," Journal of
Political Economy, August 1979, 701-718.
- "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The
American Economic
Review, May 1979, 86-91.
- "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of
International Economics,
February 1979, 25-46.
- "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with
Rational Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1978,
411-417.
- "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About
the Behavior of the
Federal Reserve," Econometrica, September 1978,
1165-1179.
- "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model,"
in After The
Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High
Unemployment, Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193.
- "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic
Performance," International
Economic Review, June 1978, 289-309.
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
The Review of
Economics and Statistics, May 1978, 159-173.
- "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of
Political Economy,
February 1978, 45-61.
- "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator,"
Econometrica,
October 1977, 1723-1727.
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical
Model, Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1976.
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical
Model, Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1974.
- "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models,"
Annals of Economic and
Social Measurement, October 1974, 667-677.
- "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model,"
International Economic
Review, June 1974, 285-303.
- "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A
Further Study," (with
H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, January 1974, 177-190.
- "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization
Problems," Annals
of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1974, 135-154.
- "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic
Models," International
Economic Review, June 1973, 261-277.
- "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with
Auto-regressive
Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social
Measurement,
January 1973, 17-28.
- "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with
Auto-regressive Errors by
Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and
Statistics, November
1972, 444-449.
- "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for
the Mortgage and
Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in
Policies for A More
Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
Conference Series No.
8, June 1972, 99-148.
- "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of
Finance, May 1972,
207-221.
- "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium,"
(with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica,
May 1972, 497-514.
- A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States
Economy, D. C. Heath and
Co., 1971.
- "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly
Journal of Economics,
November 1971, 551-579.
- "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt
Instruments of the Same
Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking,
November 1971, 733-749.
- "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money
Illusion," The Review of
Economics and Statistics, May 1971, 164-168.
- "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions,"
Southern Economic
Journal, January 1971, 267-275.
- "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations,"
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review, November 1970, 18-28.
- "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged
Endogenous Variables
and First Order Serially Correlated Errors,"
Econometrica, May 1970,
507-516.
- The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1969.