Ray C. Fair: Curriculum Vitae

Date: November 2024

Office Address: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8281

Home Address: 233 Everit Street, New Haven, CT 06511

Phone: 203-980-0646

Date of Birth: October 4, 1942

Place of Birth: Fresno, CA

Citizenship: United States

Education:
1964-1968: M.I.T., Ph.D., Economics, February 1968
1960-1964: Fresno State College, B.A., Economics, June 1964

Positions:
2000-: Fellow, International Center for Finance at Yale
1979-: Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University
1974-1979: Associate Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University
Fall 1977: Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics, M.I.T.
1968-1974: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Princeton University

Teaching: Macroeconomic Theory, Econometrics, Macroeconometric Models

Fellowships:
Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society---1977
Woodrow Wilson Dissertation Fellowship---1967-1968
National Science Foundation Fellowship---1965-1966, 1966-1967
Woodrow Wilson Fellowship---1964-1965

Research:

"Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women," November 2024, in progress.
"Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects," Business Economics, 2024.
"Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles: Comment," June 2024, in progress.
"The Cost of Contact in Ivy League Sports," March 2024, in progress.
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished.
"Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Sports Economic Review, 2022.
"Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?" July 2022, in progress.
"A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation," Business Economics, 2022.
"What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation? " Business Economics, 2021.
"Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pastor and Veronesi (2020)" July 2021, in progress.
"Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats? " September 2021, in progress.
"Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions, " January 2022, in progress.
"Trade Models and Macroeconomics," Economic Modeling, 2021.
"Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020.
"Some Important Macro Points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020.
"U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2019," September 2021, in progress.
"Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019.
"Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019.
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished.
"Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010-2017," Business Economics, 2018, 184-194.
"Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018.
"Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, 2017.
"Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017.
"The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," August 2017, unpublished.
"A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished.
"Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015.
"How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014.
"Is Fiscal Stimullus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, 2014.
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update," November 11, 2014, unpublished.
"Has Macro Progressed? " Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012.
"Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, " Journal of Forecasting, 2012.
"What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012.
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press.
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, " NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, 2011.
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished.
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010.
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010.
"Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," The Journal of Politics, 2009.
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 2009.
"Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 2008.
"Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, 2008.
"Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, 2008.
"Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007.
"A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007.
"Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007.
"College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, 2007.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished.
"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005.
"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005.
"Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished.
Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004.
"Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, 2004.
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, 2003.
"Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003.
"The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, 2003.
"Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, unpublished.
"Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, unpublished.
"Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, 2002.
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002.
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press, (first edition).
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001.
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000.
"Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000.
"What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished.
"Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?" The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1999.
"Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished.
"A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished.
"Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished.
"Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, 1998.
"Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished.
"Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169.
"Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996.
"Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996.
"Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, 1996.
"Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9.
Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994.
"How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994.
"Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176.
"Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993.
"Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993.
"Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993.
"The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147.
"Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992.
"A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197.
"Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, 1991.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, unpublished.
"Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1990.
"Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, 1990.
"The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989.
"The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988.
"Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, 1988.
"Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, 1988.
"Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988.
"Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988.
"International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987.
"Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987.
"A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212.
"Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995.
"Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1985.
"Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American Economic Review, 1985.
Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984.
"Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96.
"Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, 1983.
"The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213.
"Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, 1982.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982.
"The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981.
"Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1981.
"A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, April 1981.
"Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, 1980.
"Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, 1980.
"Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, 1980.
"On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239.
"An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, 1979.
"An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, 1979.
"On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1979.
"A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, 1979.
"A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978.
"The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, 1978.
"Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193.
"The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, 1978.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978.
"A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, 1978.
"A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, 1977.
A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976.
A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974.
"On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974.
"An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, 1974.
"Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, 1974.
"On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974, 135-154.
"A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, 1973.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1973.
"Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1972.
"The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148.
"Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, 1972.
"Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, 1972.
A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971.
"The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1971.
"The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1971.
"Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971.
"Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions," Southern Economic Journal, 1971.
"Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 1970.
"The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, 1970.
The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969.