The Forecasting Record of the US Model: October 31, 2003

Data revisions make it difficult to compare forecasted and actual values. Should the forecasted values be compared to the first release of the data, the second release, the first major revision release, the last major revision release, etc.? How should one treat conceptual changes? Since the first US model forecast analyzed here (September 23, 1983), there have been many revisions of the data in the national income and product accounts and two major conceptual changes. The first major conceptual change was the shift in focus from GNP to GDP, and the second was moving to a chain-type measure of real GDP.

Regarding GNP versus GDP, the model treats the difference between the two as exogenous, and for forecasting purposes the difference is taken to be roughly unchanged over time. This means that the forecasted growth rates of GNP and GDP are essentially the same. One can thus look at the past forecasts of GNP growth rates (before the shift in focus) as also forecasts of GDP growth rates, and they can thus be compared to the actual GDP growth rates. This is what is done in the following tables. The actual values for all quarters are taken to be the actual GDP growth rates, but the forecast values before the change in focus are taken to be GNP growth rates. The same is true for the price index: the actual values are taken to be the actual growth rates of the GDP deflator, but the forecast values before the change in focus are taken to be the growth rates of the GNP deflator.

Regarding the move to a chain-type measure, the following tables use the new measure. In other words, the model is being judged on how well it has forecasted the current estimates of the actual values based on the chain-type measure. If one thinks of these actual values as being the best current estimates of what actually happened, then the model is being judged on how it predicted what actually happened. This seems to be an interesting comparison, although there is clearly no right or wrong choice. Other choices could be made.

Beginning in October 1999 and continuing through April 2000 the NIPA data were revised back to 1929, and the revised data are used for the actual values in the tables below. Again, the model is being judged on how well it has forecasted the current estimates of what actually happened.

Tables 1 through 5 present the forecasting record of the model for real GDP, the GDP deflator, and the unemployment rate. The tables are fairly self explanatory, and only Tables 4 and 5 will be discussed here. Tables 4 and 5 show how well the model forecasts one year ahead. Table 4 presents for each forecast the actual and predicted values of the growth rate of real GDP four quarters ahead, that is, the growth rate of real GDP over the first four quarters from the beginning of the forecast period. The results are as follows.

The model did extremely well in predicting the strong growth in the last half of 1983 and in 1984 and 1985. For example, the growth rate in the 1983:3-1984:2 period was 7.9 percent, and the model predicted 7.4 percent. The model overpredicted slightly the period around 1986 (forecasts 10-13), although the largest error is only 1.5 percentage points. It was then reasonably accurate until the recession of 1990-1991, which it missed. As is well known, the recession of 1990-1991 was hard to predict, and the model certainly did not predict it. The model did well in predicting the size of the recovery from the recession (forecasts 32-40). Forecasts 41-44 underpredicted the growth rate between 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points. Forecasts 45-48 were fairly accurate. Between forecasts 49 and 65 (July 29, 1995, through July 30, 1999), the model underpredicted the growth rate by an average of 1.8 percentage points. The largest error in this period is for forecast 62 (November 3, 1998), where the model underpredicted by 3.3 percentage points. Much of the strong growth between 1995 and 1999 was probably due to the wealth effect from the stock market boom, and the stock market boom was not predicted by the model. This is probably the main reason for the underprediction of the growth rate between 1995 and 1999. Forecasts 66 and 67 were quite accurate, and forecasts 68-70 (April 28, 2000, July 31, 2000, and October 30, 2000) overpredicted by 2.0, 2.6, and 3.0 percentage points respectively. Forecasts 71-73 were fairly accurate; forecast 74 underpredicted the growth rate by 2.7 percentage points, a large error; forecast 75 was fairly accurate; forecast 76 overpredicted by 1.2 percentage points; forecast 77 was quite accurate; and forecast 78 underpredicted by 0.8 percentage points. The mean absolute error for the 78 forecasts in Table 4 is 1.17 percentage points.

Table 5 is the same as Table 4 except that it is for the growth rate of the GDP price index. The mean absolute error for the inflation forecasts is only 0.59 percentage points, and the largest error in absolute value for any of the forecasts is only 1.8 percentage points. The inflation forecasts are thus overall quite good. Between forecasts 39 and 66 (January 31, 1993, through November 5, 1999) the error was never larger than .6 percentage points in absolute value. For forecasts 67-78 (January 29, 2000, April 28, 2000, July 31, 2000, October 30, 2000, January 31, 2001, April 27, 2001, July 27, 2001, November 1, 2001, January 31, 2002, April 27, 2002, July 31, 2002, and October 31, 2002) the model overpredicted inflation by .9, 1.2, .8, .9, 1.2, 1.6, 1.6, .7, .3, .1, .1, and .4 percentage points respectively.

Forecasting Record Tables: October 31, 2003

Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
Table 3: Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
Table 4: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Real Growth
Table 5: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Inflation

Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
                                 Table 1
            Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP

                   833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854  

Actual: 7.3 8.5 9.0 6.9 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 6.1 3.3 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept.23, 1983 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.5 3.9 2. Dec. 3, 1983 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0 3. Jan. 28, 1984 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.2 4. April 24, 1984 5.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 5. July 26, 1984 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.5 6. Oct. 24, 1984 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 7. Jan. 24, 1985 5.1 4.8 4.6 3.9 8. April 20, 1985 4.3 3.7 4.0 9. July 22, 1985 4.2 4.5 10. Oct. 22, 1985 4.4
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 6.1 3.3 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.1 Forecast Dated: 9. July 22, 1985 4.2 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.0 10. Oct. 22, 1985 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.0 11. Jan. 27, 1986 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.7
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 1.7 3.8 2.1 3.0 4.3 3.3 7.1 2.7 4.8 2.1 5.3 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 13. July 28, 1986 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 14. October 25, 1986 4.2 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 15. January 25, 1987 3.0 3.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 16. May 4, 1987 2.6 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 17. July 30, 1987 2.7 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.1 3.9 18. October 31, l987 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.1 19. January 30, 1988 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.4 20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3 21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7 22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.8 2.1 5.3 5.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 5.1 0.9 -0.7 -3.2 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 23. January 31, 1989 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 24. April 27, 1989 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 25. July 30, 1989 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 26. October 29, 1989 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 27. January 31, 1990 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.8 28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0 29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9 30. November 2, 1990 0.3
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 0.9 -0.7 -3.2 -2.0 2.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.1 5.4 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 30. November 2, 1990 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 31. January 30,1991 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 32. April 29, 1991 1.3 1.8 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 33. July 27, 1991 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 34. October 30, 1991 1.9 3.1 3.9 3.5 3.4 35. February 2, 1992 2.2 3.2 3.4 4.2 36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6 37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3 38. November 6, 1992 2.5
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 3.8 3.1 5.4 -0.1 2.5 1.8 6.2 3.4 5.7 2.2 5.0 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 38. November 6, 1992 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 39. January 31, 1993 4.1 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 40. May 1, 1993 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2 41. September 5, 1993 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 42. November 1, 1993 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.4 43. February 2, 1994 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8 45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 1.2
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 5.7 2.2 5.0 1.5 0.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 6.8 2.0 4.6 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 47. January 30, 1995 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 48. April 29, 1995 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 49. July 29, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 50. October 28, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 51. February 29, 1996 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3 52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3 53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 6.8 2.0 4.6 4.4 5.9 4.2 2.8 6.1 2.2 4.1 6.7 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 54. November 1, 1996 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 55. February 1, 1997 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 56. May 9, 1997 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 57. August 4, 1997 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 58. November 11, 1997 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 59. January 30, 1998 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.2 60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8 61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 2.2 4.1 6.7 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 0.6 1.1 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 62. November 3, 1998 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 63. January 30, 1999 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 64. May 1, 1999 4.1 3.0 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 65. July 30, 1999 4.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.6 66. November 5, 1999 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 67. January 29, 2000 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.3 68. April 28, 2000 5.4 3.8 2.4
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 4.8 0.6 1.1 -0.6 -1.6 -0.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 Forecast Dated: 68. April 28, 2000 5.4 3.8 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 69. July 31, 2000 3.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 70. October 30, 2000 2.4 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2 71. January 31, 2001 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 72. April 27, 2001 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 73. July 27, 2001 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 74. November 1, 2001 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 75. January 31, 2002 3.1 1.8 1.8 2.8
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 022 023 024 031 032 033 034 041 042 043 044
Actual: 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.4 3.3 7.2 Forecast Dated: 76. April 27, 2002 3.6 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 77. July 31, 2002 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 78. October 31, 2002 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 79. January 30, 2003 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 80. April 25, 2003 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 81. July 31, 2003 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.9 82. October 31, 2003 5.8 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.7
Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
	
                                 Table 2
    Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
 
                    833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854

Actual: 3.6 3.6 4.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 4.3 2.7 1.9 3.0 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept. 23, 1983 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 2. Dec. 3, 1983 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 3. Jan. 28, 1984 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 4. April 24, 1984 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 5. July 26, 1984 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 6. Oct. 24, 1984 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 7. Jan. 24, 1985 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.0 8. April 20, 1985 3.5 3.8 4.0 9. July 22, 1985 3.2 3.5 10. Oct. 22, 1985 3.9
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 1.9 3.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 Forecast Dated: 9. July 22, 1985 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 10. Oct. 22, 1985 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 11. Jan. 27, 1986 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.5 2.7 4.2 4.7 3.1 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 13. July 28, 1986 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 14. October 25, 1986 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 15. January 25, 1987 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 16. May 4, 1987 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 17. July 30, 1987 4.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 18. October 31, l987 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 19. January 30, 1988 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6 21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9 22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.2 4.7 3.1 4.3 4.0 2.9 3.0 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.5 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 23. January 31, 1989 3.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 24. April 27, 1989 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 25. July 30, 1989 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 26. October 29, 1989 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 27. January 31, 1990 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.9 28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3 29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7 30. November 2, 1990 3.5
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 4.7 3.9 3.5 4.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 1.3 2.5 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 30. November 2, 1990 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 31. January 30, 1991 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 32. April 29, 1991 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 33. July 27, 1991 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 34. October 30, 1991 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 35. February 2, 1992 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9 37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1 38. November 6, 1992 1.5
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 2.2 1.3 2.5 3.4 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.4 1.9 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 38. November 6, 1992 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 39. January 31, 1993 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 40. May 1, 1993 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 41. September 5, 1993 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 42. November 1, 1993 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 43. February 2, 1994 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0 45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 2.6
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 1.8 2.4 1.9 3.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.6 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 46. November 1, 1994 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 47. January 30, 1995 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 48. April 29, 1995 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 49. July 29, 1995 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 50. October 28, 1995 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 51. February 29, 1996 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0 53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 54. November 1, 1996 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 55. February 1, 1997 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 56. May 9, 1997 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 57. August 4, 1997 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 58. November 11, 1997 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 59. January 30, 1998 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5 61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 62. November 3, 1998 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 63. January 30, 1999 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 64. May 1, 1999 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 65. July 30, 1999 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 66. November 5, 1999 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 67. January 29, 2000 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 68. April 28, 2000 3.5 3.6 3.7
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 -0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.8 Forecast Dated: 68. April 28, 2000 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 69. July 31, 2000 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 70. October 30, 2000 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 71. January 31, 2001 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 72. April 27, 2001 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 73. July 27, 2001 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 74. November 1, 2001 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 75. January 31, 2002 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator 022 023 024 031 032 033 034 041 042 043 044
Actual: 1.3 1.0 1.8 2.5 0.9 1.7 Forecast Dated: 76. April 27, 2002 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 77. July 31, 2002 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 78. October 31, 2002 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 79. January 30, 2003 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 80. April 25, 2003 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 81. July 31, 2003 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 82. October 31, 2003 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0
Table 3: Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
	
                                    Table 3
              Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
 
                      833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854

Actual: 9.4 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept. 23, 1983 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0 2. Dec. 3, 1983 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.5 3. Jan. 22, 1984 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 4. April 24, 1984 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 5. July 26, 1984 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 6. Oct. 24, 1984 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7. Jan. 25, 1985 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 8. April 20, 1985 7.3 7.3 7.3 9. July 22, 1985 7.3 7.2 10. Oct. 22, 1985 7.2
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.8 Forecast Dated: 9. July 22, 1985 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 10. Oct. 22, 1985 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 11. Jan. 27, 1986 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 13. July 28, 1986 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 14. October 25, 1986 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 15. January 25, 1987 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 16. May 4, 1987 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 17. July 30, 1987 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.5 18. October 31, 1987 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 19. January 30, 1988 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0 21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1 22. October 28, 1988 5.2
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.7 6.1 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 22. October 28, 1988 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 23. January 31, 1989 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 24. April 27, 1989 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 25. July 30, 1989 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 26. October 29, 1989 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 27. January 31, 1990 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6 29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3 30. November 2, 1990 5.6
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.4 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 30. November 2, 1990 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 31. January 31, 1991 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 32. April 29, 1991 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 33. July 27, 1991 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1 34. October 30, 1991 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 35. February 2, 1992 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5 37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8 38. November 6, 1992 7.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 38. November 6, 1992 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 39. January 31, 1993 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 40. May 1, 1993 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 41. September 5, 1993 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 42. November 1, 1993 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7 43. February 2, 1994 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.5 44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0 45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8 46. November 1, 1994 5.9
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 46. November 1, 1994 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 47. January 30, 1995 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 48. April 29, 1995 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 49. July 29, 1995 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 50. October 28, 1995 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 51. February 29, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.4 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 54. November 1, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 55. February 1, 1997 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 56. May 9, 1997 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 57. August 4, 1997 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 58. November 11, 1997 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 59. January 30, 1998 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4 61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1 Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 62. November 3, 1998 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 63. January 30, 1999 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 64. May 1, 1999 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 65. July 30, 1999 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 66. November 5, 1999 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 67. January 29, 2000 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 68. April 28, 2000 3.7 3.4 3.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.8 5.9 Forecast Dated: 68. April 28, 2000 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 69. July 31, 2000 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 70. October 30, 2000 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 71. January 31, 2001 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 72. April 27, 2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 73. July 27, 2001 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 74. November 1, 2001 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.7 75. January 31, 2002 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 022 023 024 031 032 033 034 041 042 043 044
Actual: 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.1 Forecast Dated: 76. April 27, 2002 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 77. July 31, 2002 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 78. October 31, 2002 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 79. January 30, 2003 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 80. April 25, 2003 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 81. July 31, 2003 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 82. October 31, 2003 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.0
Table 4: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Real Growth
				
                           Table 4
    Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
        Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
 
                              Act.    Pred.  Pred.-Act.   Period  

1. September 23, 1983 7.9 7.4 -.5 833-842 2. December 3, 1983 7.0 6.1 -.9 834-843 3. January 28, 1984 5.6 6.0 .4 841-844 4. April 24, 1984 4.2 4.7 .5 842-851 5. July 26, 1984 3.3 4.8 1.5 843-852 6. October 24, 1984 3.9 3.2 -.7 844-853 7. January 24, 1985 4.0 4.6 .6 851-854 8. April 20, 1985 4.1 3.9 -.2 852-861 9. July 22, 1985 3.7 4.1 .4 853-862 10. October 22, 1985 3.1 4.2 1.1 854-863 11. January 27, 1986 2.8 3.6 .8 861-864 12. April 21, 1986 2.6 4.1 1.5 862-871 13. July 28, 1986 3.3 4.3 1.0 863-872 14. October 25, 1986 3.2 3.8 .6 864-873 15. January 25, 1987 4.4 3.5 -.9 871-874 16. May 4, 1987 4.4 3.3 -1.1 872-881 17. July 30, 1987 4.5 3.2 -1.3 873-882 18. October 31, 1987 4.1 2.7 -1.4 874-883 19. January 30, 1988 3.7 2.9 -.8 881-884 20. April 28, 1988 4.3 3.1 -1.2 882-891 21. July 29, 1988 3.6 3.4 -.2 883-892 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.6 .0 884-893 23. January 31, 1989 2.6 3.5 .9 891-894 24. April 27, 1989 2.6 3.0 .4 892-901 25. July 30, 1989 2.3 2.5 .2 893-902 26. October 29, 1989 1.6 2.8 1.2 894-903 27. January 31, 1990 0.0 2.4 2.4 901-904 28. May 1, 1990 -1.3 2.8 4.1 902-911 29. July 31, 1990 -0.9 2.0 2.9 903-912 30. November 2, 1990 -0.5 0.8 1.3 904-913 31. January 30, 1991 0.9 2.5 1.6 911-914 32. April 29, 1991 2.3 2.5 .2 912-921 33. July 27, 1991 2.7 2.6 -.1 913-922 34. October 30, 1991 3.2 3.1 -.1 914-923 35. February 2, 1992 4.0 3.2 -.8 921-924 36. April 30, 1992 3.0 4.4 1.4 922-931 37. August 5, 1992 2.7 3.4 .7 923-932 38. November 6, 1992 2.4 3.3 .9 924-933 39. January 31, 1993 2.5 3.1 .6 931-934 40. May 1, 1993 3.4 2.8 -.6 932-941 41. September 5, 1993 4.3 2.5 -1.8 933-942 42. November 1, 1993 4.4 2.9 -1.5 934-943 43. February 2, 1994 4.1 3.1 -1.0 941-944 44. May 2, 1994 3.6 2.7 -.9 942-951 45. August 2, 1994 2.4 2.1 -.3 943-952 46. November 1, 1994 2.6 2.0 -.6 944-953 47. January 30, 1995 2.2 1.9 -.3 951-954 48. April 29, 1995 2.5 2.5 .0 952-961 49. July 29, 1995 4.0 2.4 -1.6 953-962 50. October 28, 1995 3.7 2.4 -1.3 954-963 51. February 29, 1996 4.1 2.5 -1.6 961-964 52. May 3, 1996 4.5 2.7 -1.8 962-971 53. August 2, 1996 4.0 2.3 -1.7 963-972 54. November 1, 1996 4.5 2.4 -2.1 964-973 55. February 1, 1997 4.3 2.5 -1.8 971-974 56. May 9, 1997 4.7 2.7 -2.0 972-981 57. August 4, 1997 3.8 2.0 -1.8 973-982 58. November 11, 1997 3.8 2.9 -.9 974-983 59. January 30, 1998 4.8 2.5 -2.3 981-984 60. April 30, 1998 4.0 2.5 -1.5 982-991 61. July 31, 1998 3.9 2.0 -1.9 983-992 62. November 3, 1998 4.2 0.9 -3.3 984-993 63. January 30, 1999 4.3 2.3 -2.0 991-994 64. May 1, 1999 4.2 3.0 -1.2 992-001 65. July 30, 1999 4.9 3.3 -1.6 993-002 66. November 5, 1999 3.7 3.3 -.4 994-003 67. January 29, 2000 2.3 2.9 .6 001-004 68. April 28, 2000 1.5 3.5 2.0 002-011 69. July 31, 2000 -0.1 2.5 2.6 003-012 70. October 30, 2000 -0.4 2.6 3.0 004-013 71. January 31, 2001 0.0 1.0 1.0 011-014 72. April 27, 2001 1.4 2.2 .8 012-021 73. July 27, 2001 2.2 1.7 -.5 013-022 74. November 1, 2001 3.2 0.5 -2.7 014-023 75. January 31, 2002 2.9 2.4 -.5 021-024 76. April 27, 2002 2.0 3.2 1.2 022-031 77. July 31, 2002 2.5 2.6 .1 023-032 78. October 31, 2002 3.3 2.5 -.8 024-033
Mean Absolute Error 1.17
Table 5: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Inflation
                            Table 5
 Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price
    Index Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
 
                              Act.    Pred.  Pred.-Act.   Period  

1. September 23, 1983 3.8 5.1 1.3 833-842 2. December 3, 1983 3.7 4.9 1.2 834-843 3. January 28, 1984 3.5 4.7 1.2 841-844 4. April 24, 1984 3.4 4.8 1.4 842-851 5. July 26, 1984 3.3 5.1 1.8 843-852 6. October 24, 1984 3.0 4.3 1.3 844-853 7. January 24, 1985 3.0 4.5 1.5 851-854 8. April 20, 1985 2.3 3.9 1.6 852-861 9. July 22, 1985 2.1 3.6 1.5 853-862 10. October 22, 1985 2.2 3.7 1.5 854-863 11. January 27, 1986 2.2 3.0 .8 861-864 12. April 21, 1986 2.7 2.8 .1 862-871 13. July 28, 1986 3.0 1.9 -1.1 863-872 14. October 25, l987 3.0 2.1 -.9 864-873 15. January 25, 1987 3.2 2.4 -.8 871-874 16. May 4, 1987 3.0 2.7 -.3 872-881 17. July 30, 1987 3.3 3.7 .4 873-882 18. October 31, 1987 3.8 3.3 -.5 874-883 19. January 30, 1988 3.7 3.8 .1 881-884 20. April 28, 1988 4.1 3.5 -.6 882-891 21. July 29, 1988 4.0 4.1 .1 883-892 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.9 .3 884-893 23. January 31, 1989 3.6 3.8 .2 891-894 24. April 27, 1989 3.6 4.5 .9 892-901 25. July 30, 1989 3.8 4.5 .7 893-902 26. October 29, 1989 4.0 3.9 -.1 894-903 27. January 31, 1990 4.2 3.9 -.3 901-904 28. May 1, 1990 4.2 4.5 .3 902-911 29. July 31, 1990 3.8 2.7 -1.1 903-912 30. November 2, 1990 3.4 3.6 .2 904-913 31. January 30, 1991 3.1 3.7 .6 911-914 32. April 29, 1991 2.7 2.6 -.1 912-921 33. July 27, 1991 2.5 4.0 1.5 913-922 34. October 30, 1991 2.2 3.0 .8 914-923 35. February 2, 1992 2.3 2.9 .6 921-924 36. April 30, 1992 2.4 3.0 .6 922-931 37 August 5, 1992 2.3 2.2 -.1 923-932 38. November 6, 1992 2.5 1.7 -.8 924-933 39. January 31, 1993 2.4 2.0 -.4 931-934 40. May 1, 1993 2.1 2.0 -.1 932-941 41. September 5, 1993 2.0 2.5 .5 933-942 42. November 1, 1993 2.2 2.0 -.2 934-943 43. February 2, 1994 2.1 1.8 -.3 941-944 44. May 2, 1994 2.3 1.8 -.5 942-951 45. August 2, 1994 2.2 2.1 -.1 943-952 46. November 1, 1994 2.1 2.3 .2 944-953 47. January 30, 1995 2.1 2.0 -.1 951-954 48. April 29, 1995 2.0 2.5 .5 952-961 49. July 29, 1995 1.9 2.3 .4 953-962 50. October 28, 1995 2.0 2.4 .4 954-963 51. February 19, 1996 1.9 1.8 -.1 961-964 52. May 3, 1996 2.0 1.9 -.1 962-971 53. August 2, 1996 2.0 1.9 -.1 963-972 54. November 1, 1996 1.9 1.7 -.2 964-973 55. February 1, 1997 1.8 1.7 -.1 971-974 56. May 9, 1997 1.4 1.6 .2 972-981 57. August 4, 1997 1.2 1.5 .3 973-982 58. November 11, 1997 1.2 1.6 .4 974-983 59. January 30, 1998 1.1 1.5 .4 981-984 60. April 30, 1998 1.3 1.4 .1 982-991 61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.7 .3 983-992 62. November 3, 1998 1.4 1.5 .1 984-993 63. January 30, 1999 1.5 1.5 .0 991-994 64. May 1, 1999 1.9 1.6 -.3 992-001 65. July 30, 1999 2.1 2.0 -.1 993-002 66. November 5, 1999 2.2 2.8 .6 994-003 67. January 29, 2000 2.3 3.2 .9 001-004 68. April 28, 2000 2.4 3.6 1.2 002-011 69. July 31, 2000 2.4 3.2 .8 003-012 70. October 30, 2000 2.6 3.5 .9 004-013 71. January 31, 2001 1.9 3.1 1.2 011-014 72. April 27, 2001 1.4 3.0 1.6 012-021 73. July 27, 2001 1.1 2.7 1.6 013-022 74. November 1, 2001 .8 1.5 .7 014-023 75. January 31, 2002 1.4 1.7 .3 021-024 76. April 27, 2002 1.6 1.7 .1 022-031 77. July 31, 2002 1.5 1.6 .1 023-032 78. October 31, 2002 1.7 2.1 .4 024-033
Mean Absolute Error 0.59