| Chapter 5 Tables: November 1, 1996 |
| Equation 1 Equation 2 Equation 3 Equation 4 Equation 5 Equation 6 Equation 7 Equation 8 Equation 9 Equation 10 Equation 11 Equation 12 Equation 13 Equation 14 Equation 15 Equation 16 Equation 17 Equation 18 Equation 20 Equation 21 Equation 22 Equation 23 Equation 24 Equation 25 Equation 26 Equation 27 Equation 28 Equation 30 |
| Table 5.1: Equation 1 |
Table 5.1
Equation 1
LHS Variable is log(CS/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.0881 2.36 Lags 8.47 3 0.0373
AG1 -0.2506 -3.46 RHO=4 2.87 4 0.5791
AG2 0.3032 1.32 T 18.89 1 0.0000
AG3 0.2131 1.13 Leads +1 14.85 1 0.0001
log(CS/POP){-1} 0.9355 29.35 Leads +4 30.15 4 0.0000
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.0704 2.26 Leads +8 34.63 2 0.0000
RSA -0.0010 -4.68 p4e 5.56 1 0.0184
p8e 2.37 1 0.1239
Other a 28.56 5 0.0000
Spread 2.02 4 0.7326
SE 0.00406
R2 1.000
DW 1.87
Chi Square (AGE) = 14.33 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0025)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
18.58 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1971.4 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), log(PCS/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)] |
| Table 5.2: Equation 2 |
Table 5.2
Equation 2
LHS Variable is log(CN/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.2071 -2.56 Lags 17.79 4 0.0014
AG1 -0.2075 -2.07 RHO=4 29.82 4 0.0000
AG2 0.7442 2.52 T 0.10 1 0.7578
AG3 -0.3492 -1.92 Leads +1 11.24 1 0.0008
log(CN/POP){-1} 0.6572 15.46 Leads +4 13.12 4 0.0107
Ch log(CN/POP){-1} 0.1977 3.14 Leads +8 14.35 2 0.0008
log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0418 4.12 p4e 1.35 1 0.2450
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2148 7.16 p8e 0.07 1 0.7987
RMA -0.0012 -2.36 Other a 8.97 4 0.0620
Spread 11.39 4 0.0226
SE 0.00569
R2 0.998
DW 1.89
Chi Square (AGE) = 40.89 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0000)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
19.93 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1973.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(WA/PH), log(PCN/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)] |
| Table 5.3: Equation 3 |
Table 5.3
Equation 3
LHS Variable is CD/POP
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.4266 -1.79 Lags 6.17 3 0.1035
AG1 0.5141 1.16 RHO=4 21.89 4 0.0002
AG2 0.7241 0.65 T 31.81 1 0.0000
AG3 -1.1491 -2.53 Leads +1 27.68 1 0.0000
(CD/POP){-1} 0.7177 12.65 Leads +4 37.68 4 0.0000
(KD/POP){-1} -0.0091 -1.48 Leads +8 31.20 2 0.0000
YD/(POP*PH) 0.1108 4.93 p4e*CDA 9.39 1 0.0022
RMA*CDA -0.0038 -1.88 p8e*CDA 10.59 1 0.0011
Other a 28.59 5 0.0000
Spread 15.36 4 0.0040
SE 0.01298
R2 0.994
DW 1.95
Chi Square (AGE) = 16.77 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0008)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
19.87 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 a(AA/POP)-1, WA/PH, PCD/PH, Z, YNL/(POP*PH) |
| Table 5.4: Equation 4 |
Table 5.4
Equation 4
LHS Variable is IHH/POP
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 2.2951 2.66 Lags 0.99 4 0.9119
(IHH/POP){-1} 0.5567 10.39 RHO=4 0.74 2 0.6913
(KH/POP){-1} -0.0807 -5.29 T 1.35 1 0.2461
(AA/POP){-1} 0.0023 2.94 Leads +1 2.37 1 0.1235
YD/(POP*PH) 0.0919 3.43 Leads +4 8.10 4 0.0881
RMA{-1}*IHHA -0.0278 -5.33 Leads +8 2.37 2 0.3056
RHO1 0.6507 7.86 p4e{-1}*IHHA 0.53 1 0.4676
RHO2 0.3428 4.15 p8e{-1}*IHHA 2.18 1 0.1398
Other a 12.91 4 0.0117
Spread 1.25 4 0.8707
SE 0.00944
R2 0.959
DW 2.03
Chi Square (AGE) = 1.71 (df = 3, p-value = 0.6344)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
9.48 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1976.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 a(WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, 'Z-1, [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 |
| Table 5.5: Equation 5 |
Table 5.5
Equation 5
LHS Variable is log(L1/POP1)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0024 -2.22 Lags 1.55 3 0.6706
log(L1/POP1){-1} 0.8412 20.67 RHO=4 32.63 4 0.0000
log(WA/PH) 0.0010 0.37 Leads +1 0.17 1 0.6796
Z 0.0110 1.21 Leads +4 9.88 4 0.0424
T -0.0001 -3.45 Leads +8 3.91 2 0.1414
logPH 0.93 1 0.3360
Other a 2.40 2 0.3010
SE 0.00210
R2 0.986
DW 2.12
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.44 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1970.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(YNL-1/(POP-1*PH-1)) |
| Table 5.6: Equation 6 |
Table 5.6
Equation 6
LHS Variable is log(L2/POP2)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.0021 -0.82 Lags 11.35 3 0.0100
log(L2/POP2){-1} 0.9872 210.87 RHO=4 5.61 4 0.2303
log(WA/PH) 0.0176 2.45 T 0.68 1 0.4104
Z 0.0354 1.44 Leads +1 2.18 1 0.1397
Leads +4 12.22 4 0.0158
Leads +8 0.19 2 0.9111
logPH 5.47 1 0.0193
Other a 13.92 2 0.0010
SE 0.00598
R2 0.999
DW 2.14
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
11.90 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1973.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 |
| Table 5.7: Equation 7 |
Table 5.7
Equation 7
LHS Variable is log(L3/POP3)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.0079 -0.40 Lags 7.52 4 0.1108
log(L3/POP3){-1} 0.9054 26.77 RHO=4 7.18 4 0.1266
log(WA/PH) 0.0350 3.21 Leads +1 3.17 1 0.0748
Z 0.0588 2.13 Leads +4 9.71 4 0.0455
log(AA/POP){-1} -0.0105 -1.38 Leads +8 5.88 2 0.0528
T -0.0002 -3.44 logPH 0.16 1 0.6868
Other a 6.52 1 0.0107
SE 0.00552
R2 0.982
DW 1.91
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.48 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 |
| Table 5.8: Equation 8 |
Table 5.8
Equation 8
LHS Variable is log(LM/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.2574 -2.74 Lags 7.26 3 0.0639
log(LM/POP){-1} 0.9230 35.73 RHO=4 3.51 4 0.4771
log(WA/PH) 0.0402 1.12 T 0.69 1 0.4065
Z 1.1388 3.80 Leads +1 0.33 1 0.5675
Leads +4 3.20 4 0.5246
Leads +8 1.16 2 0.5606
logPH 0.06 1 0.8069
Other a 10.20 2 0.0061
SE 0.06839
R2 0.904
DW 1.96
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.94 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1978.4 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 |
| Table 5.9: Equation 9 |
Table 5.9
Equation 9
LHS Variable is log[MH/(POP*PH)]
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.1089 4.33 log[MH/(POP*PH) 1.57 1 0.2105
log[MH{-1}/(POP{-1}*PH)] 0.8633 32.97 Lags 4.45 3 0.2173
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.0504 5.04 RHO=4 43.29 3 0.0000
RSA -0.0045 -4.07 T 1.75 1 0.1860
RHO1 -0.1993 -2.50
SE 0.02352
R2 0.920
DW 1.92
Chi Square (AGE) = 15.04 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0018)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
13.19 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.10: Equation 10 |
Table 5.10
Equation 10
LHS Variable is logPF
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val logPF{-1} 0.9216 156.17 Level form a 4.41 2 0.1104
log[WF*(1+D5G)] 0.0326 8.07 Lags 7.37 4 0.1177
cnst 0.1211 7.35 RHO=4 5.84 3 0.1196
logPIM 0.0321 12.21 T 4.28 1 0.0385
log[((YS-Y)/YS){-1}+.04] -0.0035 -2.70 Leads +1 2.00 1 0.1578
RHO1 0.1979 2.69 Leads +4 8.93 4 0.0629
Leads +8 8.05 2 0.0179
UR{-1} 30.81 1 0.0000
[(YS-Y)/YS]{-1} 8.53 1 0.0035
Change form b 63.32 3 0.0000
SE 0.00394
R2 1.000
DW 1.95
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
19.28 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1972.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog[WF*(1+D5G)]-1 and logPIM-1 added to the equation. blogPF-1, log[WF*(1+D5G)]-1, and logPIM-1 added to the 'equation with Ch logPF on the left hand side and a constant, Ch log(WF(1+D5G)), Ch logPIM, and log[((YS-Y)/YS)-1+.04] on the right hand side. |
| Table 5.11: Equation 11 |
Table 5.11
Equation 11
LHS Variable is Y
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 120.6384 5.56 Lags 1.16 2 0.5608
Y{-1} 0.3082 7.31 RHO=4 1.92 1 0.1662
X 0.9108 20.24 T 1.88 1 0.1704
V{-1} -0.3139 -8.27 Leads +1 7.34 1 0.0068
RHO1 0.4494 5.79 Leads +8 8.79 2 0.0124
RHO2 0.2119 2.63 Spread 9.47 4 0.0504
RHO3 0.2675 3.61
SE 3.39882
R2 1.000
DW 2.03
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
14.34 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.3 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.12: Equation 12 |
Table 5.12
Equation 12
LHS Variable is Ch IKF
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val (KK-KKMIN){-1} -0.0060 -2.65 Lags 25.47 5 0.0001
IKF{-1}-DELK*KK{-1} -0.0175 -1.41 RHO=4 7.88 4 0.0959
Ch Y 0.0674 3.09 T 2.29 1 0.1305
Ch Y{-1} 0.0382 2.23 Leads +1 0.00 1 0.9788
Ch Y{-2} 0.0232 1.40 Leads +4 1.59 4 0.8108
Ch Y{-3} 0.0276 1.66 Leads +8 3.26 2 0.1962
Ch Y{-4} 0.0215 1.32 cnst 0.02 1 0.8963
TXCR*IKFA 0.0031 1.01 Spread 1.83 4 0.7666
RB'{-3}*IKFA -0.0008 -1.32
SE 1.44141
R2 0.392
DW 2.00
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
1.58 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1978.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.13: Equation 13 |
Table 5.13
Equation 13
LHS Variable is Ch logJF
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.5102 -3.67 Lags 36.33 5 0.0000
DD772 -0.0662 -0.25 RHO=4 16.09 4 0.0029
log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0821 -3.66 Leads +1 2.02 1 0.1558
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0126 -0.29 Leads +4 16.09 4 0.0029
Ch logJF{-1} 0.4276 7.83 Leads +8 7.76 2 0.0207
DD772*Ch logJF{-1} -0.0570 -0.51
T 0.0001 3.54
DD772*T -0.0001 -2.06
Ch logY 0.3231 9.63
SE 0.00318
R2 0.755
DW 2.03
Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.14: Equation 14 |
Table 5.14
Equation 14
LHS Variable is Ch logHF
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.5926 4.34 Lags 4.07 4 0.3967
DD772 0.4368 3.20 RHO=4 5.89 3 0.1170
logHF{-1} -0.1861 -5.92 Leads +1 0.81 1 0.3670
log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0907 -4.74 Leads +4 3.16 4 0.5317
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0739 3.31 Leads +8 0.01 2 0.9949
T -0.0001 -4.93
DD772*T 0.0001 4.11
Ch logY 0.1675 6.68
RHO1 -0.2016 -2.44
SE 0.00254
R2 0.469
DW 2.01
Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.15: Equation 15 |
Table 5.15
Equation 15
LHS Variable is logHO
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 3.9330 49.84 Lags 1.01 2 0.6019
HFF 0.0200 8.44 RHO=4 2.75 3 0.4325
HFF{-1} 0.0118 5.00 T 5.05 1 0.0247
RHO1 0.9513 34.48
SE 0.04607
R2 0.945
DW 1.84
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.17 1970.1 1979.4 2.67 1975.4 Estimation period is 1956.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.16: Equation 16 |
Table 5.16
Equation 16
LHS Variable is logWF
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val logWF{-1} 0.7233 5.80 Real Wage Restr 13.64 4 0.0085
logPF 0.3923 3.24 Lags 3.90 1 0.0482
logWF{-2} 0.0461 0.52 RHO=4 19.90 3 0.0002
logWF{-3} 0.0719 0.90 UR{-1} 0.03 1 0.8653
logWF{-4} 0.1505 1.91
cnst -0.0797 -1.23
T 0.0003 3.85
RHO1 0.3832 2.54
logPF{-1}a -0.1444 0.00
logPF{-2}a -0.0461 0.00
logPF{-3}a -0.0719 0.00
logPF{-4}a -0.1505 0.00
SE 0.00648
R2 0.999
DW 1.95
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
16.23 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1972.3 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 aCoefficient constrained. See the discussion in the text. bEquation estimated withno restrictions on the coefficients. |
| Table 5.17: Equation 17 |
Table 5.17
Equation 17
LHS Variable is log(MF/PF)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.1322 1.49 log(MF/PF){-1} 0.46 1 0.4967
log(MF{-1}/PF) 0.9568 41.11 Lags 8.26 3 0.0409
log(X-FA) 0.0169 1.54 RHO=4 18.20 4 0.0011
RS*(1-D2G-D2S) -0.0010 -0.47 T 0.28 1 0.5981
SE 0.03253
R2 0.961
DW 2.38
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.86 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1976.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.18: Equation 18 |
Table 5.18
Equation 18
LHS Variable is log(DF/DF{-1})
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val log[(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF]{- 0.0238 10.95 Restriction 8.30 1 0.0040
Lags 3.32 2 0.1905
RHO=4 14.69 4 0.0054
T 9.73 1 0.0018
cnst 2.33 1 0.1271
SE 0.02290
R2 0.011
DW 1.77
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.68 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1976.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.20: Equation 20 |
Table 5.20
Equation 20
LHS Variable is IVA
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.4545 -0.81 Lags 4.78 2 0.0917
(PX-PX{-1})*V{-1} -0.3999 -5.22 RHO=4 16.21 3 0.0010
RHO1 0.5673 8.52 T 0.02 1 0.8934
SE 2.30395
R2 0.586
DW 2.04
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.47 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1974.4 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.21: Equation 21 |
Table 5.21
Equation 21
LHS Variable is log(CCF/CCF{-1})
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF{-1}] 0.0587 19.33 Restriction 9.13 1 0.0025
D811824 0.0230 4.76 Lags 9.56 2 0.0084
D831834 0.0259 3.89 RHO=4 13.03 4 0.0111
T 9.70 1 0.0018
cnst 6.53 1 0.0106
SE 0.01330
R2 0.329
DW 1.80
Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.22: Equation 22 |
Table 5.22
Equation 22
LHS Variable is BO/BR
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.0026 0.77 Lags 7.00 3 0.0718
(BO/BR){-1} 0.3452 4.80 RHO=4 28.25 4 0.0000
RS 0.0045 1.53 T 2.45 1 0.1176
RD -0.0022 -0.82
SE 0.01977
R2 0.318
DW 2.07
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.82 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1975.2 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.23: Equation 23 |
Table 5.23
Equation 23
LHS Variable is RB-RS{-2}
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.2416 4.92 Restriction 1.02 1 0.3133
RB{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8859 41.77 Lags 1.95 2 0.3769
RS-RS{-2} 0.3049 8.84 RHO=4 11.57 3 0.0090
RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.2321 -5.34 T 4.51 1 0.0338
RHO1 0.2446 3.13 Leads +1 0.03 1 0.8687
Leads +4 4.84 4 0.3044
p4e 2.17 1 0.1408
p8e 2.23 1 0.1353
SE 0.26185
R2 0.959
DW 2.04
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.29 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.4 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.24: Equation 24 |
Table 5.24
Equation 24
LHS Variable is RM-RS{-2}
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.4560 5.72 Restriction 1.82 1 0.1777
RM{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8510 33.81 Lags 1.66 2 0.4365
RS-RS{-2} 0.2795 5.93 RHO=4 2.21 4 0.6980
RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.0447 -0.68 T 3.28 1 0.0701
Leads +1 1.51 1 0.2189
Leads +4 13.39 4 0.0095
Leads +8 4.43 2 0.1092
p4e 1.07 1 0.3018
p8e 1.44 1 0.2302
SE 0.35970
R2 0.894
DW 1.93
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.67 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.4 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.25: Equation 25 |
Table 5.25
Equation 25
LHS Variable is CG
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 34.7075 4.61 Lags 15.26 3 0.0016
Ch RB -106.4572 -3.62 RHO=4 29.76 4 0.0000
Ch (CF-TFG-TFS) -0.6945 -0.26 T 15.64 1 0.0001
Leads +1 1.33 2 0.5153
Leads +4 8.89 8 0.3518
Leads +8 7.10 4 0.1305
Ch RS 0.49 1 0.4825
SE 97.51189
R2 0.167
DW 1.62
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.94 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1979.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.26: Equation 26 |
Table 5.26
Equation 26
LHS Variable is log[CUR/(POP*PF)]
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.0552 -8.14 log([CUR/(POP*P 8.14 1 0.0043
log[CUR{-1}/(POP{-1}*PF) 0.9540 108.87 Lags 9.58 3 0.0225
log[(X-FA)/POP] 0.0519 8.30 RHO=4 15.49 3 0.0014
RSA -0.0012 -2.63 T 0.18 1 0.6735
RHO1 -0.2771 -3.59
SE 0.01017
R2 0.995
DW 1.91
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.07 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1977.3 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.27: Equation 27 |
Table 5.27
Equation 27
LHS Variable is log(IM/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -0.5985 -4.24 Lags 7.67 4 0.1045
log(IM/POP){-1} 0.8545 25.14 RHO=4 27.93 4 0.0000
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.3791 4.39 T 18.02 1 0.0000
log(PF/PIM) 0.0479 2.18 Leads +1 0.23 1 0.6287
RMA{-1} -0.0036 -1.93 Leads +4 14.20 4 0.0067
D691 -0.1178 -3.88 Leads +8 1.97 2 0.3734
D692 0.1440 4.70 p4e 35.69 1 0.0000
D714 -0.0913 -3.01 p8e 25.22 1 0.0000
D721 0.1066 3.50 logPF 29.04 1 0.0000
log[(X-FA)/POP] 2.05 1 0.1521
Other a 24.15 4 0.0001
Spread 38.23 4 0.0000
SE 0.03001
R2 0.997
DW 1.69
Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)] |
| Table 5.28: Equation 28 |
Table 5.28
Equation 28
LHS Variable is logUB
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst 0.2182 0.56 Lags 10.49 3 0.0148
logUB{-1} 0.2642 3.89 RHO=4 5.75 3 0.1244
logU 1.1779 10.02 T 2.32 1 0.1281
logWF 0.3419 5.11
RHO1 0.7982 14.10
SE 0.06520
R2 0.996
DW 2.16
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
11.01 1970.1 1979.4 2.53 1975.1 Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |
| Table 5.30: Equation 30 |
Table 5.30
Equation 30
LHS Variable is RS
Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val cnst -15.6737 -6.33 Lags 8.82 6 0.1837
RS{-1} 0.8833 48.52 RHO=4 3.99 4 0.4070
100*[(PD/PD{-1})^4-1] 0.0765 3.93 T 0.74 1 0.3908
JJS 15.9718 6.41 Leads +1 2.13 3 0.5452
PCGDPR 0.0683 4.57 Leads +4 8.34 12 0.7583
PCM1{-1} 0.0195 3.13 Leads +8 2.00 6 0.9195
D794823*PCM1{-1} 0.2251 9.50 p4e 0.31 1 0.5772
Ch RS{-1} 0.2051 3.48 p8e 0.57 1 0.4496
Ch RS{-2} -0.2999 -5.51
SE 0.50002
R2 0.970
DW 1.95
Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3 |