Presidential Vote Equation--February 5, 2004
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (October 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (February 5, 2004) are 3.0 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3, respectively. In the previous forecast 2003:4 was predicted to be a GOODNEWS quarter, but it turned out not to be. For the current forecast 2004:1 is predicted to be a GOODNEWS quarter, so the total number of GOODNEWS quarters is the same at 3. The prediction of GROWTH, the per capita growth rate in the first three quarters of 2004 at an annual rate, has increased to 3.0 from 2.4 for the previous forecast. Given that the coefficient on GROWTH in the vote equation is 0.691, an increase in GROWTH of 0.6 adds 0.4 to the vote prediction. The new economic values thus give a prediction of 58.7 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 58.3 percent before. This does not, of course, change the main story that the equation has been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin.