|Presidential Vote Equation--January 31, 2008|
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the current forecast from the US model
(January 31, 2008) are 1.8 percent, 3.1 percent, and 2, respectively.
These are very close to those from the previous forecast (October 31, 2007),
and so there has been very little change in the predicted vote share.
Republican vote share is now 48.0 percent rather than 48.1 percent before.
The Republicans are thus
predicted to lose the election by 2.0 percentage points given the
current forecasts from the US model.
It should be noted that the forecasts of inflation from the US Model are more pessimistic than the current consensus view and the forecasts of real output growth are more optimistic. It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE. (Compute your own prediction for 2008 using the 2004 update.) For example, if you think there will be a recession in 2008, contrary to what the US Model is predicting, you can enter some negative value for GROWTH. For example, a value of -2.0 instead of the default value of 1.8 gives a predicted vote share of 45.4 percent for the Republicans. In this case the Republicans are predicted to lose the election by 4.6 percentage points.