| Presidential Vote Equation--April 30, 2008 |
|
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the current forecast from the US model
(April 30, 2008) are 1.5 percent, 3.0 percent, and 2, respectively.
These are very close to those from the previous forecast (January 31, 2008),
and so there has been very little change in the predicted vote share.
The predicted
Republican vote share (of the two party vote)
is now 47.8 percent rather than 48.0 percent before.
It should be noted that the forecasts of inflation from the US Model are more pessimistic than the current consensus view and the forecasts of real output growth are more optimistic. It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE. (Compute your own prediction for 2008 using the 2004 update.) For example, if you think there will be a recession in 2008, contrary to what the US Model is predicting, you can enter some negative value for GROWTH. For example, a value of -2.0 instead of the default value of 1.5 gives a predicted vote share of 45.4 percent for the Republicans. |