Chapter 5 Tables: April 27, 2001
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
Equation 5
Equation 6
Equation 7
Equation 8
Equation 9
Equation 10
Equation 11
Equation 12
Equation 13
Equation 14
Equation 15
Equation 16
Equation 17
Equation 18
Equation 19
Equation 20
Equation 21
Equation 22
Equation 23
Equation 24
Equation 25
Equation 26
Equation 27
Equation 28
Equation 29
Equation 30
Table 5.1: Equation 1
                            Table 5.1
                           Equation  1
                    LHS Variable is  log(CS/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0331 0.81 Lags 9.68 4 0.0461 AG1 -0.2798 -3.84 RHO=4 1.32 4 0.8579 AG2 0.1679 1.04 T 24.58 1 0.0000 AG3 0.3617 2.46 Leads +1 9.08 1 0.0026 log(CS/POP){-1} 0.8743 27.60 Leads +4 37.05 4 0.0000 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.1222 3.93 Leads +8 38.73 2 0.0000 RSA -0.0011 -4.95 p4e 1.22 1 0.2696 log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0103 1.94 p8e 0.15 1 0.6994 Other a 19.40 4 0.0007 Spread 2.49 4 0.6468 SE 0.00407 R2 1.000 DW 2.04 Chi Square (AGE) = 17.52 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0006) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*11.43 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(WA/PH), log(PCS/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.2: Equation 2
                            Table 5.2
                           Equation  2
                    LHS Variable is  log(CN/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2994 -3.62 Lags 30.06 4 0.0000 AG1 -0.0230 -0.22 RHO=4 32.26 4 0.0000 AG2 0.5227 2.15 T 0.00 1 0.9762 AG3 -0.4157 -2.49 Leads +1 13.05 1 0.0003 log(CN/POP){-1} 0.7507 21.20 Leads +4 15.67 4 0.0035 <>log(CN/POP){-1} 0.1491 2.35 Leads +8 13.80 2 0.0010 log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0656 5.31 p4e 7.15 1 0.0075 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.1156 5.07 p8e 3.47 1 0.0625 RMA -0.0019 -4.54 Other a 22.02 4 0.0002 Spread 8.99 4 0.0615 SE 0.00601 R2 0.999 DW 1.87 Chi Square (AGE) = 15.08 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0017) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*16.65 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(WA/PH), log(PCN/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.3: Equation 3
                            Table 5.3
                           Equation  3
                    LHS Variable is  CD/POP                  

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2467 -1.83 Lags 12.99 4 0.0113 AG1 0.1113 0.46 RHO=4 25.02 4 0.0000 AG2 2.5356 3.37 T 27.56 1 0.0000 AG3 -2.0577 -4.26 Leads +1 16.24 1 0.0001 (CD/POP){-1} 0.7241 13.69 Leads +4 23.82 4 0.0001 (KD/POP){-1} -0.0090 -1.91 Leads +8 26.95 2 0.0000 YD/(POP*PH) 0.0926 5.22 p4e*CDA 4.98 1 0.0257 RMA*CDA -0.0044 -2.53 p8e*CDA 5.59 1 0.0180 (AA/POP){-1} 0.0011 4.69 Other a 27.77 4 0.0000 Spread 14.75 4 0.0053 SE 0.01320 R2 0.996 DW 2.05 Chi Square (AGE) = 20.81 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0001) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*23.48 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 aWA/PH, PCD/PH, Z, YNL/(POP*PH)
Table 5.4: Equation 4
                            Table 5.4
                           Equation  4
                    LHS Variable is  IHH/POP                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.5182 0.69 Lags 3.32 4 0.5062 (IHH/POP){-1} 0.5261 8.93 RHO=4 1.65 2 0.4388 (KH/POP){-1} -0.0519 -3.89 T 17.21 1 0.0000 (AA/POP){-1} 0.0008 2.39 Leads +1 1.05 1 0.3064 YD/(POP*PH) 0.0577 2.16 Leads +4 8.09 4 0.0882 RMA{-1}*IHHA -0.0313 -6.17 p4e{-1}*IHHA 9.89 1 0.0017 RHO1 0.6777 8.00 p8e{-1}*IHHA 8.87 1 0.0029 RHO2 0.3201 3.78 Other a 26.93 4 0.0000 Spread 2.38 4 0.6669 SE 0.00913 R2 0.967 DW 2.01 Chi Square (AGE) = 4.76 (df = 3, p-value = 0.1900) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
8.76 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 a(WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, Z-1, [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.5: Equation 5
                            Table 5.5
                           Equation  5
                    LHS Variable is  log(L1/POP1)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0026 -3.26 Lags 2.14 2 0.3427 log(L1/POP1){-1} 0.8506 22.39 RHO=4 35.47 4 0.0000 log(WA/PH) 0.0005 0.20 Leads +1 0.05 1 0.8191 T -0.0001 -3.47 Leads +4 5.07 4 0.2800 Leads +8 1.76 2 0.4143 logPH 0.41 1 0.5209 Other a 1.29 3 0.7313 SE 0.00207 R2 0.989 DW 2.14 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.03 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1970.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1, UR
Table 5.6: Equation 6
                            Table 5.6
                           Equation  6
                    LHS Variable is  log(L2/POP2)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0056 -1.94 Lags 10.79 2 0.0045 log(L2/POP2){-1} 0.9853 218.87 RHO=4 5.38 4 0.2502 log(WA/PH) 0.0176 2.67 T 1.76 1 0.1852 Leads +1 2.32 1 0.1280 Leads +4 13.38 4 0.0096 Leads +8 0.58 2 0.7476 logPH 1.82 1 0.1774 Other a 7.03 3 0.0710 SE 0.00587 R2 0.999 DW 2.11 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.43 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1973.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1, UR
Table 5.7: Equation 7
                            Table 5.7
                           Equation  7
                    LHS Variable is  log(L3/POP3)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0149 -1.21 Lags 2.83 3 0.4194 log(L3/POP3){-1} 0.9656 49.19 RHO=4 2.35 4 0.6719 log(WA/PH) 0.0150 1.79 Leads +1 0.36 1 0.5513 UR -0.0985 -3.42 Leads +4 2.30 4 0.6803 T -0.0001 -1.80 Leads +8 0.97 2 0.6163 logPH 0.02 1 0.8825 Other a 3.35 2 0.1872 SE 0.00538 R2 0.985 DW 2.03 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.79 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.8: Equation 8
                            Table 5.8
                           Equation  8
                    LHS Variable is  log(LM/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2333 -3.27 Lags 9.13 3 0.0276 log(LM/POP){-1} 0.9008 38.58 RHO=4 4.72 4 0.3177 log(WA/PH) 0.1325 3.72 T 10.52 1 0.0012 UR -2.3010 -4.99 Leads +1 2.36 1 0.1247 Leads +4 6.80 4 0.1470 Leads +8 5.60 2 0.0610 logPH 8.24 1 0.0041 Other a 10.91 2 0.0043 SE 0.06545 R2 0.947 DW 1.97 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*9.41 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 alog(AA/POP)-1, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.9: Equation 9
                            Table 5.9
                           Equation  9
                    LHS Variable is  log[MH/(POP*PH)]        

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2059 -2.58 logMH/POP*PH-1 0.46 1 0.4981 log[MH{-1}/(POP{-1}*PH)] 0.9648 36.54 Lags 9.92 3 0.0193 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2591 2.86 RHO=4 53.96 4 0.0000 RSA -0.0011 -0.79 T -0.0013 -3.00 SE 0.03393 R2 0.913 DW 2.18 Chi Square (AGE) = 9.50 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0234) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*28.19 1970.1 1979.4 2.38 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1999.4
Table 5.10: Equation 10
                            Table 5.10
                           Equation 10
                    LHS Variable is  logPF                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logPF{-1} 0.8783 68.81 Lags 5.58 4 0.2329 log[WF*(1+D5G)]-logLAM 0.0471 2.99 RHO=4 5.89 4 0.2075 cnst -0.0219 -1.86 Leads +1 5.07 1 0.0244 logPIM 0.0480 18.96 Leads +4 8.55 4 0.0735 UR -0.1814 -7.54 Leads +8 6.20 2 0.0450 T 0.0003 9.64 ln[(YS-Y)/YS+.04] 1.41 1 0.2349 (YS-Y)/YS 1.89 1 0.1687 SE 0.00339 R2 1.000 DW 1.77 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*13.41 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1972.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.11: Equation 11
                            Table 5.11
                           Equation 11
                    LHS Variable is  Y                       

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
Y{-1} 0.3682 8.69 Lags 0.59 2 0.7435 X 0.8355 15.72 RHO=4 0.59 1 0.4423 V{-1} -0.3432 -9.39 T 1.78 1 0.1828 RHO1 0.3892 5.07 Leads +1 3.80 1 0.0512 RHO2 0.3117 4.29 Leads +8 3.16 2 0.2065 RHO3 0.3042 4.05 Spread 4.52 4 0.3406 SE 4.04365 R2 1.000 DW 1.98 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.49 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.12: Equation 12
                            Table 5.12
                           Equation 12
                    LHS Variable is  logKK                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logKK{-1} 1.9778 159.89 Lags 5.25 3 0.1547 logKK{-2} -0.9788 -79.11 RHO=4 4.85 4 0.3030 logY 0.0250 4.31 T 1.10 1 0.2950 logY{-1} -0.0109 -1.28 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5616 logY{-2} -0.0052 -0.78 Leads +4 3.56 4 0.4685 logY{-3} -0.0013 -0.20 Leads +8 0.13 2 0.9369 logY{-4} -0.0017 -0.26 cnst 4.51 1 0.0336 logY{-5} -0.0047 -1.14 Spread 6.90 4 0.1412 RB*(1-D2G-D2S) -0.0000311 -1.38 SE 0.00049 R2 1.000 DW 1.94 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.63 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.13: Equation 13
                            Table 5.13
                           Equation 13
                    LHS Variable is  <>logJF                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.6258 -4.33 Lags 23.18 5 0.0003 DD772 0.3033 1.38 RHO=4 15.46 4 0.0038 log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.1005 -4.31 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5604 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0472 1.32 Leads +4 7.16 4 0.1275 <>logJF{-1} 0.4069 7.59 Leads +8 0.75 2 0.6874 DD772*<>logJF{-1} 0.0099 0.10 T 0.0001 4.44 DD772*T -0.0001 -3.96 <>logY 0.3359 9.66 SE 0.00315 R2 0.738 DW 2.01
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.14: Equation 14
                            Table 5.14
                           Equation 14
                    LHS Variable is  <>logHF                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.4822 3.63 Lags 4.59 4 0.3325 DD772 0.4672 3.62 RHO=4 5.32 3 0.1498 logHF{-1} -0.1626 -5.77 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5597 log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0847 -4.45 Leads +4 1.94 4 0.7462 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0784 3.72 Leads +8 0.08 2 0.9607 T -0.0001 -3.87 DD772*T 0.0001 2.95 <>logY 0.1726 6.68 RHO1 -0.1848 -2.33 SE 0.00258 R2 0.424 DW 2.02
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.15: Equation 15
                            Table 5.15
                           Equation 15
                    LHS Variable is  logHO                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.9437 50.11 Lags 1.54 2 0.4630 HFF 0.0195 8.66 RHO=4 3.63 3 0.3048 HFF{-1} 0.0119 5.30 T 5.59 1 0.0180 RHO1 0.9562 42.17 SE 0.04471 R2 0.957 DW 1.82 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.97 1970.1 1979.4 2.46 1975.4
Estimation period is 1956.1-2001.1
Table 5.16: Equation 16
                            Table 5.16
                           Equation 16
                    LHS Variable is  logWF-logLAM            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logWF{-1}-logLAM{-1} 0.9210 33.73 RealWageRestr b 0.74 1 0.3903 logPF 0.7988 16.04 Lags 3.40 1 0.0653 cnst -0.0614 -4.37 RHO=4 25.61 4 0.0000 T 0.0001 2.23 UR 0.14 1 0.7041 logPF{-1}a -0.7356 SE 0.00693 R2 0.892 DW 1.68 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.05 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1970.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 aCoefficient constrained. See the discussion in the text. bEquation estimated with no restrictions on the coefficients.
Table 5.17: Equation 17
                            Table 5.17
                           Equation 17
                    LHS Variable is  log(MF/PF)              

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0069 -0.14 log(MF/PF){-1} 1.10 1 0.2953 log(MF{-1}/PF) 0.9825 66.51 Lags 7.51 3 0.0573 log(X-FA) 0.0180 2.13 RHO=4 19.40 4 0.0007 RS*(1-D2G-D2S)-1 -0.0003 -0.18 T 0.17 1 0.6842 SE 0.02448 R2 0.990 DW 2.37 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*9.03 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1976.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.18: Equation 18
                            Table 5.18
                           Equation 18
                    LHS Variable is  log(DF/DF{-1})          

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF-1 0.0274 12.42 Restriction 4.74 1 0.0294 Lags 2.45 2 0.2940 RHO=4 11.06 4 0.0260 T 5.63 1 0.0177 cnst 0.07 1 0.7890 SE 0.02223 R2 0.058 DW 1.74 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*4.23 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1976.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.19: Equation 19
                            Table 5.19
                           Equation 19
                    LHS Variable is  <>INTF/(-AF)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0001 1.67 Restriction 2.76 1 0.0970 .75*RQ-[INTF/(-AF)]{-1} 0.0398 2.34 Lags 18.90 2 0.0001 RHO1 0.4355 6.07 RHO=4 3.19 3 0.3626 T 27.98 1 0.0000 SE 0.00065 R2 0.193 DW 2.08 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*21.04 1970.1 1979.4 2.46 1976.4
Estimation period is 1956.1-2001.1
Table 5.20: Equation 20
                            Table 5.20
                           Equation 20
                    LHS Variable is  IVA                     

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
(PX-PX{-1})*V{-1} -0.2087 -3.18 Lags 2.71 2 0.2579 RHO1 0.8272 19.22 RHO=4 6.85 3 0.0769 T 2.07 1 0.1504 SE 1.75909 R2 0.706 DW 2.02 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.90 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.21: Equation 21
                            Table 5.21
                           Equation 21
                    LHS Variable is  log(CCF/CCF{-1})        

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF{-1}] 0.0687 21.02 Restriction 8.97 1 0.0027 D811824 0.0176 3.84 Lags 6.43 2 0.0401 D831834 0.0088 1.37 RHO=4 4.21 3 0.2401 RHO1 -0.2140 -3.01 T 7.86 1 0.0051 cnst 7.43 1 0.0064 SE 0.01501 R2 0.235 DW 1.97
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.22: Equation 22
                            Table 5.22
                           Equation 22
                    LHS Variable is  BO/BR                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0022 0.69 Lags 6.21 3 0.1021 (BO/BR){-1} 0.3522 5.13 RHO=4 28.00 4 0.0000 RS 0.0044 1.51 T 4.62 1 0.0315 RD -0.0023 -0.83 SE 0.01946 R2 0.312 DW 2.10 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*8.17 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.23: Equation 23
                            Table 5.23
                           Equation 23
                    LHS Variable is  RB-RS{-2}               

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.2389 4.90 Restriction 0.76 1 0.3848 RB{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8860 41.66 Lags 1.24 2 0.5372 RS-RS{-2} 0.2993 8.54 RHO=4 8.80 3 0.0320 RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.2263 -5.24 T 2.44 1 0.1185 RHO1 0.2602 3.49 Leads +1 0.10 1 0.7551 Leads +4 5.38 4 0.2509 p4e 2.16 1 0.1417 p8e 2.18 1 0.1399 SE 0.25800 R2 0.957 DW 2.03 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.31 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.24: Equation 24
                            Table 5.24
                           Equation 24
                    LHS Variable is  RM-RS{-2}               

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.4307 5.55 Restriction 1.72 1 0.1894 RM{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8555 34.58 Lags 1.42 2 0.4914 RS-RS{-2} 0.2766 5.72 RHO=4 2.53 4 0.6399 RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.0444 -0.66 T 0.46 1 0.4974 Leads +1 1.54 1 0.2141 Leads +4 15.73 4 0.0034 Leads +8 6.57 2 0.0375 p4e 1.48 1 0.2238 p8e 2.18 1 0.1396 SE 0.35814 R2 0.890 DW 1.89 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.45 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.25: Equation 25
                            Table 5.25
                           Equation 25
                    LHS Variable is  CG/GDP(-1)              

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.1005 4.75 Lags 1.68 3 0.6409 <>RB -0.1476 -2.08 RHO=4 1.94 4 0.7467 [<>(PIEF-TFG-TFS+...)]/G 15.0628 1.62 T 1.08 1 0.2999 Leads +1 0.29 2 0.8663 Leads +4 6.00 8 0.6475 Leads +8 10.94 4 0.0272 <>RS 0.68 1 0.4089 SE 0.25572 R2 0.035 DW 2.05 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.59 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.26: Equation 26
                            Table 5.26
                           Equation 26
                    LHS Variable is  log[CUR/(POP*PF)]       

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0539 -7.29 logCUR/POP*PF-1 5.02 1 0.0251 logCUR{-1}/(POP{-1}*PF) 0.9593 122.56 Lags 4.11 3 0.2501 log[(X-FA)/POP] 0.0500 7.46 RHO=4 3.52 3 0.3183 RSA -0.0012 -2.35 T 0.02 1 0.8927 RHO1 -0.3000 -4.31 SE 0.01157 R2 0.997 DW 2.01 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.58 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1977.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.27: Equation 27
                            Table 5.27
                           Equation 27
                    LHS Variable is  log(IM/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -1.0848 -6.37 Lags 15.72 3 0.0013 log(IM/POP){-1} 0.7108 17.62 RHO=4 32.63 4 0.0000 log[(CS+...)/POP] 0.4715 5.27 Leads +1 5.67 1 0.0172 log(PF/PIM) 0.1177 6.45 Leads +4 9.70 4 0.0459 D691 -0.1230 -4.38 Leads +8 2.75 2 0.2528 D692 0.1225 4.30 logPF 12.63 1 0.0004 D714 -0.0880 -3.15 D721 0.0894 3.17 T 0.0010 3.10 SE 0.02772 R2 0.998 DW 1.70
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.28: Equation 28
                            Table 5.28
                           Equation 28
                    LHS Variable is  logUB                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.6592 1.96 Lags 11.40 3 0.0098 logUB{-1} 0.2525 3.83 RHO=4 4.92 3 0.1775 logU 1.1319 9.66 T 6.58 1 0.0103 logWF 0.4093 6.64 RHO1 0.8379 17.81 SE 0.06184 R2 0.996 DW 2.10 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*12.90 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.29: Equation 29
                            Table 5.29
                           Equation 29
                    LHS Variable is  <>INTG/(-AG)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0003 3.07 Restriction 23.79 1 0.0000 .75*RQ-[INTG/(-AG)]{-1} 0.0393 2.73 Lags 107.79 2 0.0000 RHO=4 138.24 4 0.0000 T 0.00 1 0.9981 SE 0.00078 R2 0.038 DW 1.15 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.15 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Table 5.30: Equation 30
                            Table 5.30
                           Equation 30
                    LHS Variable is  RS                      

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.8856 5.72 Lags 10.19 5 0.0701 RS{-1} 0.9255 47.18 RHO=4 3.85 4 0.4261 100*[(PD/PD{-1})^4-1] 0.0658 3.79 T 0.16 1 0.6855 UR -14.1006 -4.52 Leads +1 0.58 2 0.7482 <>UR -88.6890 -6.58 Leads +4 5.03 8 0.7549 PCM1{-1} 0.0120 2.00 Leads +8 1.04 4 0.9037 D794823*PCM1{-1} 0.2175 9.53 p4e 2.95 1 0.0859 <>RS{-1} 0.1877 3.26 p8e 0.25 1 0.6161 <>RS{-2} -0.3506 -6.74 SE 0.47538 R2 0.970 DW 1.82
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1 Stability test: 1954.1-1979.3 versus 1982.4-2001.1. Wald statistic is 10.81 (8 degrees of freedom) (p-value = .2127).