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Chapter 5 Tables: April 27, 2001 |
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
Equation 5
Equation 6
Equation 7
Equation 8
Equation 9
Equation 10
Equation 11
Equation 12
Equation 13
Equation 14
Equation 15
Equation 16
Equation 17
Equation 18
Equation 19
Equation 20
Equation 21
Equation 22
Equation 23
Equation 24
Equation 25
Equation 26
Equation 27
Equation 28
Equation 29
Equation 30
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Table 5.1: Equation 1
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Table 5.1
Equation 1
LHS Variable is log(CS/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0331 0.81 Lags 9.68 4 0.0461
AG1 -0.2798 -3.84 RHO=4 1.32 4 0.8579
AG2 0.1679 1.04 T 24.58 1 0.0000
AG3 0.3617 2.46 Leads +1 9.08 1 0.0026
log(CS/POP){-1} 0.8743 27.60 Leads +4 37.05 4 0.0000
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.1222 3.93 Leads +8 38.73 2 0.0000
RSA -0.0011 -4.95 p4e 1.22 1 0.2696
log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0103 1.94 p8e 0.15 1 0.6994
Other a 19.40 4 0.0007
Spread 2.49 4 0.6468
SE 0.00407
R2 1.000
DW 2.04
Chi Square (AGE) = 17.52 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0006)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*11.43 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(WA/PH), log(PCS/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
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Table 5.2: Equation 2
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Table 5.2
Equation 2
LHS Variable is log(CN/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2994 -3.62 Lags 30.06 4 0.0000
AG1 -0.0230 -0.22 RHO=4 32.26 4 0.0000
AG2 0.5227 2.15 T 0.00 1 0.9762
AG3 -0.4157 -2.49 Leads +1 13.05 1 0.0003
log(CN/POP){-1} 0.7507 21.20 Leads +4 15.67 4 0.0035
<>log(CN/POP){-1} 0.1491 2.35 Leads +8 13.80 2 0.0010
log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0656 5.31 p4e 7.15 1 0.0075
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.1156 5.07 p8e 3.47 1 0.0625
RMA -0.0019 -4.54 Other a 22.02 4 0.0002
Spread 8.99 4 0.0615
SE 0.00601
R2 0.999
DW 1.87
Chi Square (AGE) = 15.08 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0017)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*16.65 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(WA/PH), log(PCN/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
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Table 5.3: Equation 3
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Table 5.3
Equation 3
LHS Variable is CD/POP
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2467 -1.83 Lags 12.99 4 0.0113
AG1 0.1113 0.46 RHO=4 25.02 4 0.0000
AG2 2.5356 3.37 T 27.56 1 0.0000
AG3 -2.0577 -4.26 Leads +1 16.24 1 0.0001
(CD/POP){-1} 0.7241 13.69 Leads +4 23.82 4 0.0001
(KD/POP){-1} -0.0090 -1.91 Leads +8 26.95 2 0.0000
YD/(POP*PH) 0.0926 5.22 p4e*CDA 4.98 1 0.0257
RMA*CDA -0.0044 -2.53 p8e*CDA 5.59 1 0.0180
(AA/POP){-1} 0.0011 4.69 Other a 27.77 4 0.0000
Spread 14.75 4 0.0053
SE 0.01320
R2 0.996
DW 2.05
Chi Square (AGE) = 20.81 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0001)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*23.48 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
aWA/PH, PCD/PH, Z, YNL/(POP*PH)
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Table 5.4: Equation 4
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Table 5.4
Equation 4
LHS Variable is IHH/POP
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.5182 0.69 Lags 3.32 4 0.5062
(IHH/POP){-1} 0.5261 8.93 RHO=4 1.65 2 0.4388
(KH/POP){-1} -0.0519 -3.89 T 17.21 1 0.0000
(AA/POP){-1} 0.0008 2.39 Leads +1 1.05 1 0.3064
YD/(POP*PH) 0.0577 2.16 Leads +4 8.09 4 0.0882
RMA{-1}*IHHA -0.0313 -6.17 p4e{-1}*IHHA 9.89 1 0.0017
RHO1 0.6777 8.00 p8e{-1}*IHHA 8.87 1 0.0029
RHO2 0.3201 3.78 Other a 26.93 4 0.0000
Spread 2.38 4 0.6669
SE 0.00913
R2 0.967
DW 2.01
Chi Square (AGE) = 4.76 (df = 3, p-value = 0.1900)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
8.76 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
a(WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, Z-1, [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
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Table 5.5: Equation 5
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Table 5.5
Equation 5
LHS Variable is log(L1/POP1)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0026 -3.26 Lags 2.14 2 0.3427
log(L1/POP1){-1} 0.8506 22.39 RHO=4 35.47 4 0.0000
log(WA/PH) 0.0005 0.20 Leads +1 0.05 1 0.8191
T -0.0001 -3.47 Leads +4 5.07 4 0.2800
Leads +8 1.76 2 0.4143
logPH 0.41 1 0.5209
Other a 1.29 3 0.7313
SE 0.00207
R2 0.989
DW 2.14
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.03 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1970.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1, UR
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Table 5.6: Equation 6
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Table 5.6
Equation 6
LHS Variable is log(L2/POP2)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0056 -1.94 Lags 10.79 2 0.0045
log(L2/POP2){-1} 0.9853 218.87 RHO=4 5.38 4 0.2502
log(WA/PH) 0.0176 2.67 T 1.76 1 0.1852
Leads +1 2.32 1 0.1280
Leads +4 13.38 4 0.0096
Leads +8 0.58 2 0.7476
logPH 1.82 1 0.1774
Other a 7.03 3 0.0710
SE 0.00587
R2 0.999
DW 2.11
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.43 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1973.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1, UR
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Table 5.7: Equation 7
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Table 5.7
Equation 7
LHS Variable is log(L3/POP3)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0149 -1.21 Lags 2.83 3 0.4194
log(L3/POP3){-1} 0.9656 49.19 RHO=4 2.35 4 0.6719
log(WA/PH) 0.0150 1.79 Leads +1 0.36 1 0.5513
UR -0.0985 -3.42 Leads +4 2.30 4 0.6803
T -0.0001 -1.80 Leads +8 0.97 2 0.6163
logPH 0.02 1 0.8825
Other a 3.35 2 0.1872
SE 0.00538
R2 0.985
DW 2.03
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
5.79 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
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Table 5.8: Equation 8
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Table 5.8
Equation 8
LHS Variable is log(LM/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2333 -3.27 Lags 9.13 3 0.0276
log(LM/POP){-1} 0.9008 38.58 RHO=4 4.72 4 0.3177
log(WA/PH) 0.1325 3.72 T 10.52 1 0.0012
UR -2.3010 -4.99 Leads +1 2.36 1 0.1247
Leads +4 6.80 4 0.1470
Leads +8 5.60 2 0.0610
logPH 8.24 1 0.0041
Other a 10.91 2 0.0043
SE 0.06545
R2 0.947
DW 1.97
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*9.41 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
alog(AA/POP)-1, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
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Table 5.9: Equation 9
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Table 5.9
Equation 9
LHS Variable is log[MH/(POP*PH)]
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2059 -2.58 logMH/POP*PH-1 0.46 1 0.4981
log[MH{-1}/(POP{-1}*PH)] 0.9648 36.54 Lags 9.92 3 0.0193
log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2591 2.86 RHO=4 53.96 4 0.0000
RSA -0.0011 -0.79
T -0.0013 -3.00
SE 0.03393
R2 0.913
DW 2.18
Chi Square (AGE) = 9.50 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0234)
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*28.19 1970.1 1979.4 2.38 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1999.4
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Table 5.10: Equation 10
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Table 5.10
Equation 10
LHS Variable is logPF
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logPF{-1} 0.8783 68.81 Lags 5.58 4 0.2329
log[WF*(1+D5G)]-logLAM 0.0471 2.99 RHO=4 5.89 4 0.2075
cnst -0.0219 -1.86 Leads +1 5.07 1 0.0244
logPIM 0.0480 18.96 Leads +4 8.55 4 0.0735
UR -0.1814 -7.54 Leads +8 6.20 2 0.0450
T 0.0003 9.64 ln[(YS-Y)/YS+.04] 1.41 1 0.2349
(YS-Y)/YS 1.89 1 0.1687
SE 0.00339
R2 1.000
DW 1.77
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*13.41 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1972.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.11: Equation 11
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Table 5.11
Equation 11
LHS Variable is Y
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
Y{-1} 0.3682 8.69 Lags 0.59 2 0.7435
X 0.8355 15.72 RHO=4 0.59 1 0.4423
V{-1} -0.3432 -9.39 T 1.78 1 0.1828
RHO1 0.3892 5.07 Leads +1 3.80 1 0.0512
RHO2 0.3117 4.29 Leads +8 3.16 2 0.2065
RHO3 0.3042 4.05 Spread 4.52 4 0.3406
SE 4.04365
R2 1.000
DW 1.98
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.49 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.12: Equation 12
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Table 5.12
Equation 12
LHS Variable is logKK
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logKK{-1} 1.9778 159.89 Lags 5.25 3 0.1547
logKK{-2} -0.9788 -79.11 RHO=4 4.85 4 0.3030
logY 0.0250 4.31 T 1.10 1 0.2950
logY{-1} -0.0109 -1.28 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5616
logY{-2} -0.0052 -0.78 Leads +4 3.56 4 0.4685
logY{-3} -0.0013 -0.20 Leads +8 0.13 2 0.9369
logY{-4} -0.0017 -0.26 cnst 4.51 1 0.0336
logY{-5} -0.0047 -1.14 Spread 6.90 4 0.1412
RB*(1-D2G-D2S) -0.0000311 -1.38
SE 0.00049
R2 1.000
DW 1.94
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.63 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.13: Equation 13
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Table 5.13
Equation 13
LHS Variable is <>logJF
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.6258 -4.33 Lags 23.18 5 0.0003
DD772 0.3033 1.38 RHO=4 15.46 4 0.0038
log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.1005 -4.31 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5604
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0472 1.32 Leads +4 7.16 4 0.1275
<>logJF{-1} 0.4069 7.59 Leads +8 0.75 2 0.6874
DD772*<>logJF{-1} 0.0099 0.10
T 0.0001 4.44
DD772*T -0.0001 -3.96
<>logY 0.3359 9.66
SE 0.00315
R2 0.738
DW 2.01
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.14: Equation 14
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Table 5.14
Equation 14
LHS Variable is <>logHF
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.4822 3.63 Lags 4.59 4 0.3325
DD772 0.4672 3.62 RHO=4 5.32 3 0.1498
logHF{-1} -0.1626 -5.77 Leads +1 0.34 1 0.5597
log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0847 -4.45 Leads +4 1.94 4 0.7462
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0784 3.72 Leads +8 0.08 2 0.9607
T -0.0001 -3.87
DD772*T 0.0001 2.95
<>logY 0.1726 6.68
RHO1 -0.1848 -2.33
SE 0.00258
R2 0.424
DW 2.02
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.15: Equation 15
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Table 5.15
Equation 15
LHS Variable is logHO
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.9437 50.11 Lags 1.54 2 0.4630
HFF 0.0195 8.66 RHO=4 3.63 3 0.3048
HFF{-1} 0.0119 5.30 T 5.59 1 0.0180
RHO1 0.9562 42.17
SE 0.04471
R2 0.957
DW 1.82
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.97 1970.1 1979.4 2.46 1975.4
Estimation period is 1956.1-2001.1
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Table 5.16: Equation 16
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Table 5.16
Equation 16
LHS Variable is logWF-logLAM
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logWF{-1}-logLAM{-1} 0.9210 33.73 RealWageRestr b 0.74 1 0.3903
logPF 0.7988 16.04 Lags 3.40 1 0.0653
cnst -0.0614 -4.37 RHO=4 25.61 4 0.0000
T 0.0001 2.23 UR 0.14 1 0.7041
logPF{-1}a -0.7356
SE 0.00693
R2 0.892
DW 1.68
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.05 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1970.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
aCoefficient constrained. See the discussion in the text.
bEquation estimated with no restrictions on the coefficients.
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Table 5.17: Equation 17
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Table 5.17
Equation 17
LHS Variable is log(MF/PF)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0069 -0.14 log(MF/PF){-1} 1.10 1 0.2953
log(MF{-1}/PF) 0.9825 66.51 Lags 7.51 3 0.0573
log(X-FA) 0.0180 2.13 RHO=4 19.40 4 0.0007
RS*(1-D2G-D2S)-1 -0.0003 -0.18 T 0.17 1 0.6842
SE 0.02448
R2 0.990
DW 2.37
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*9.03 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1976.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.18: Equation 18
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Table 5.18
Equation 18
LHS Variable is log(DF/DF{-1})
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF-1 0.0274 12.42 Restriction 4.74 1 0.0294
Lags 2.45 2 0.2940
RHO=4 11.06 4 0.0260
T 5.63 1 0.0177
cnst 0.07 1 0.7890
SE 0.02223
R2 0.058
DW 1.74
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*4.23 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1976.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.19: Equation 19
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Table 5.19
Equation 19
LHS Variable is <>INTF/(-AF)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0001 1.67 Restriction 2.76 1 0.0970
.75*RQ-[INTF/(-AF)]{-1} 0.0398 2.34 Lags 18.90 2 0.0001
RHO1 0.4355 6.07 RHO=4 3.19 3 0.3626
T 27.98 1 0.0000
SE 0.00065
R2 0.193
DW 2.08
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*21.04 1970.1 1979.4 2.46 1976.4
Estimation period is 1956.1-2001.1
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Table 5.20: Equation 20
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Table 5.20
Equation 20
LHS Variable is IVA
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
(PX-PX{-1})*V{-1} -0.2087 -3.18 Lags 2.71 2 0.2579
RHO1 0.8272 19.22 RHO=4 6.85 3 0.0769
T 2.07 1 0.1504
SE 1.75909
R2 0.706
DW 2.02
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.90 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.21: Equation 21
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Table 5.21
Equation 21
LHS Variable is log(CCF/CCF{-1})
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF{-1}] 0.0687 21.02 Restriction 8.97 1 0.0027
D811824 0.0176 3.84 Lags 6.43 2 0.0401
D831834 0.0088 1.37 RHO=4 4.21 3 0.2401
RHO1 -0.2140 -3.01 T 7.86 1 0.0051
cnst 7.43 1 0.0064
SE 0.01501
R2 0.235
DW 1.97
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.22: Equation 22
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Table 5.22
Equation 22
LHS Variable is BO/BR
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0022 0.69 Lags 6.21 3 0.1021
(BO/BR){-1} 0.3522 5.13 RHO=4 28.00 4 0.0000
RS 0.0044 1.51 T 4.62 1 0.0315
RD -0.0023 -0.83
SE 0.01946
R2 0.312
DW 2.10
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*8.17 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.23: Equation 23
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Table 5.23
Equation 23
LHS Variable is RB-RS{-2}
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.2389 4.90 Restriction 0.76 1 0.3848
RB{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8860 41.66 Lags 1.24 2 0.5372
RS-RS{-2} 0.2993 8.54 RHO=4 8.80 3 0.0320
RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.2263 -5.24 T 2.44 1 0.1185
RHO1 0.2602 3.49 Leads +1 0.10 1 0.7551
Leads +4 5.38 4 0.2509
p4e 2.16 1 0.1417
p8e 2.18 1 0.1399
SE 0.25800
R2 0.957
DW 2.03
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.31 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.24: Equation 24
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Table 5.24
Equation 24
LHS Variable is RM-RS{-2}
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.4307 5.55 Restriction 1.72 1 0.1894
RM{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8555 34.58 Lags 1.42 2 0.4914
RS-RS{-2} 0.2766 5.72 RHO=4 2.53 4 0.6399
RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.0444 -0.66 T 0.46 1 0.4974
Leads +1 1.54 1 0.2141
Leads +4 15.73 4 0.0034
Leads +8 6.57 2 0.0375
p4e 1.48 1 0.2238
p8e 2.18 1 0.1396
SE 0.35814
R2 0.890
DW 1.89
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.45 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.25: Equation 25
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Table 5.25
Equation 25
LHS Variable is CG/GDP(-1)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.1005 4.75 Lags 1.68 3 0.6409
<>RB -0.1476 -2.08 RHO=4 1.94 4 0.7467
[<>(PIEF-TFG-TFS+...)]/G 15.0628 1.62 T 1.08 1 0.2999
Leads +1 0.29 2 0.8663
Leads +4 6.00 8 0.6475
Leads +8 10.94 4 0.0272
<>RS 0.68 1 0.4089
SE 0.25572
R2 0.035
DW 2.05
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.59 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.26: Equation 26
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Table 5.26
Equation 26
LHS Variable is log[CUR/(POP*PF)]
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0539 -7.29 logCUR/POP*PF-1 5.02 1 0.0251
logCUR{-1}/(POP{-1}*PF) 0.9593 122.56 Lags 4.11 3 0.2501
log[(X-FA)/POP] 0.0500 7.46 RHO=4 3.52 3 0.3183
RSA -0.0012 -2.35 T 0.02 1 0.8927
RHO1 -0.3000 -4.31
SE 0.01157
R2 0.997
DW 2.01
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
3.58 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1977.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.27: Equation 27
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Table 5.27
Equation 27
LHS Variable is log(IM/POP)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -1.0848 -6.37 Lags 15.72 3 0.0013
log(IM/POP){-1} 0.7108 17.62 RHO=4 32.63 4 0.0000
log[(CS+...)/POP] 0.4715 5.27 Leads +1 5.67 1 0.0172
log(PF/PIM) 0.1177 6.45 Leads +4 9.70 4 0.0459
D691 -0.1230 -4.38 Leads +8 2.75 2 0.2528
D692 0.1225 4.30 logPF 12.63 1 0.0004
D714 -0.0880 -3.15
D721 0.0894 3.17
T 0.0010 3.10
SE 0.02772
R2 0.998
DW 1.70
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.28: Equation 28
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Table 5.28
Equation 28
LHS Variable is logUB
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.6592 1.96 Lags 11.40 3 0.0098
logUB{-1} 0.2525 3.83 RHO=4 4.92 3 0.1775
logU 1.1319 9.66 T 6.58 1 0.0103
logWF 0.4093 6.64
RHO1 0.8379 17.81
SE 0.06184
R2 0.996
DW 2.10
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
*12.90 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.29: Equation 29
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Table 5.29
Equation 29
LHS Variable is <>INTG/(-AG)
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0003 3.07 Restriction 23.79 1 0.0000
.75*RQ-[INTG/(-AG)]{-1} 0.0393 2.73 Lags 107.79 2 0.0000
RHO=4 138.24 4 0.0000
T 0.00 1 0.9981
SE 0.00078
R2 0.038
DW 1.15
Stability Test:
AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.15 1970.1 1979.4 2.34 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
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Table 5.30: Equation 30
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Table 5.30
Equation 30
LHS Variable is RS
Equation Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.8856 5.72 Lags 10.19 5 0.0701
RS{-1} 0.9255 47.18 RHO=4 3.85 4 0.4261
100*[(PD/PD{-1})^4-1] 0.0658 3.79 T 0.16 1 0.6855
UR -14.1006 -4.52 Leads +1 0.58 2 0.7482
<>UR -88.6890 -6.58 Leads +4 5.03 8 0.7549
PCM1{-1} 0.0120 2.00 Leads +8 1.04 4 0.9037
D794823*PCM1{-1} 0.2175 9.53 p4e 2.95 1 0.0859
<>RS{-1} 0.1877 3.26 p8e 0.25 1 0.6161
<>RS{-2} -0.3506 -6.74
SE 0.47538
R2 0.970
DW 1.82
Estimation period is 1954.1-2001.1
Stability test: 1954.1-1979.3 versus 1982.4-2001.1.
Wald statistic is 10.81 (8 degrees of freedom) (p-value = .2127).
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