Table A.2
The Variables in the US Model in Alphabetical Order
Var. Eq. Description
AA 89 Total net wealth, h, B92$.
AB 73 Net financial assets, b, B$.
AF 70 Net financial assets, f, B$.
AG 77 Net financial assets, g, B$.
AG1 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 26-55 minus percent 16-25.
AG2 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 56-65 minus percent 16-25.
AG3 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 66+ minus percent 16-25.
AH 66 Net financial assets, h, B$.
AR 75 Net financial assets, r, B$.
AS 79 Net financial assets, s, B$.
BF 55 Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, f, B$.
BG 56 Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, g, B$.
BO 22 Bank borrowing from the Fed, B$.
BR 57 Total bank reserves, B$.
CCB Exog. Capital consumption, b, B92$.
CCF 21 Capital consumption, f, B$.
CCG Exog. Capital consumption, g, B$.
CCH Exog. Capital consumption, h, B$.
CCS Exog. Capital consumption, s, B$.
CD 3 Consumer expenditures for durable goods, B92$.
CDA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of CD/POP.
CF 68 Cash flow, f, B$.
CG 25 Capital gains(+) or losses(-) on corporate stocks held by h, B$
CN 2 Consumer expenditures for nondurable goods, B92$.
COG Exog. Purchases of consumption and investment goods, g, B92$.
COS Exog. Purchases of consumption and investment goods, s, B92$.
CS 1 Consumer expenditures for services, B92$.
CUR 26 Currency held outside banks, B$.
D1G Exog. Personal income tax parameter, g.
D1GM 90 Marginal personal income tax rate, g.
D1S Exog. Personal income tax parameter, s.
D1SM 91 Marginal personal income tax rate, s.
D2G Exog. Profit tax rate, g.
D2S Exog. Profit tax rate, s.
D3G Exog. Indirect business tax rate, g.
D3S Exog. Indirect business tax rate, s.
D4G Exog. Employee social security tax rate, g.
D5G Exog. Employer social security tax rate, g.
D691 Exog. 1 in 1969:1; 0 otherwise.
D692 Exog. 1 in 1969:2; 0 otherwise.
D714 Exog. 1 in 1971:4; 0 otherwise.
D721 Exog. 1 in 1972:1; 0 otherwise.
D794823 Exog. 1 from 1979:4 through 1982:3; 0 otherwise.
D811824 Exog. 1 from 1981:1 through 1982:4; 0 otherwise.
D831834 Exog. 1 from 1983:1 through 1983:4; 0 otherwise.
DB Exog. Dividends paid, b, B$.
DD772 Exog. 1 from 1977:2 on; 0 otherwise.
DELD Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of durable goods,
rate per quarter.
DELH Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of housing,
rate per quarter.
DELK Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of capital,
rate per quarter.
DF 18 Dividends paid, f, B$.
DISB Exog. Discrepancy for b, B$.
DISBA Exog. Discrepancy between NIPA and FFA data on capital consumption,
nonfinancial corporate business, B$.
DISF Exog. Discrepancy for f, B$.
DISG Exog. Discrepancy for g, B$.
DISH Exog. Discrepancy for h, B$.
DISR Exog. Discrepancy for r, B$.
DISS Exog. Discrepancy for s, B$.
DRS Exog. Dividends received by s, B$.
E 85 Total employment, civilian and military, millions.
EX Exog. Exports, B92$.
EXPG 106 Total expenditures, g, B$.
EXPS 113 Total expenditures, s, B$.
FA Exog. Farm gross product, B92$.
FIROW Exog. Payments of factor income to the rest of the world, B$.
FIROWD Exog. FIROW price index.
FIUS Exog. Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world, B$.
FIUSD Exog. FIUS price index.
G1 Exog. Reserve requirement ratio.
GDP 82 Gross Domestic Product, B$.
GDPD 84 GDP chain price index.
GDPR 83 Gross Domestic Product, B92$.
GNP 129 Gross National Product, B$.
GNPD 131 GNP chain price index.
GNPR 130 Gross National Product, B92$.
HF 14 Average number of hours paid per job, f, hours per quarter.
HFF 100 Deviation of HF from its peak to peak interpolation.
HFS Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of HF.
HG Exog. Average number of hours paid per civilian job, g, hours
per quarter.
HM Exog. Average number of hours paid per military job, g, hours
per quarter.
HN 62 Average number of non overtime hours paid per job, f, hours
per quarter.
HO 15 Average number of overtime hours paid per job, f, hours
per quarter.
HS Exog. Average number of hours paid per job, s, hours per quarter.
IBTG 51 Indirect business taxes, g, B$.
IBTS 52 Indirect business taxes, s, B$.
IGZ Exog. Gross investment, g, B$.
IHB Exog. Residential investment, b, B92$.
IHF Exog. Residential investment, f, B92$.
IHH 4 Residential investment, h, B92$.
IHHA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of IHH/POP.
IKB Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, b, B92$.
IKF 12 Nonresidential fixed investment, f, B92$.
IKFA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of IKF.
IKG Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, g, B92$.
IKH Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, h, B92$.
IM 27 Imports, B92$.
INS Exog. Insurance and pension reserves to h from g, B$.
INTF 19 Net interest payments, f, B$.
INTG 29 Net interest payments, g, B$.
INTOTH Exog. Net interest payments, sole proprietorships and partnerships
and other private business, B$.
INTROW Exog. Net interest payments, r, B$.
INTS Exog. Net interest payments, s, B$.
ISZ Exog. Gross investment, s, B$.
IVA 20 Inventory valuation adjustment, B$.
IVF 117 Inventory investment, f, B92$.
JF 13 Number of jobs, f, millions.
JG Exog. Number of civilian jobs, g, millions.
JHMIN 94 Number of worker hours required to produce Y, millions.
JJ 95 Ratio of the total number of worker hours paid for to the
total population 16 and over.
JJP Exog. Potential value of JJ.
JJS 96 Ratio of actual to potential JJ.
JM Exog. Number of military jobs, g, millions.
JS Exog. Number of jobs, s, millions.
KD 58 Stock of durable goods, B92$.
KH 59 Stock of housing, h, B92$.
KK 92 Stock of capital, f, B92$.
KKMIN 93 Amount of capital required to produce Y, B92$.
L1 5 Labor force of men 25-54, millions.
L2 6 Labor force of women 25-54, millions.
L3 7 Labor force of all others, 16+, millions.
LAM Exog. Amount of output capable of being produced per worker hour.
LM 8 Number of "moonlighters": difference between the total
number of jobs (establishment data) and the total number of
people employed (household survey data), millions.
M1 81 Money supply, end of quarter, B$.
MB 71 Net demand deposits and currency, b, B$.
MDIF Exog. Net increase in demand deposits and currency of banks in
U.S. possessions plus change in demand deposits and currency
of private nonbank financial institutions plus change in demand
deposits and currency of federally sponsored credit agencies
and mortgage pools minus mail float, U.S. government, B$.
MF 17 Demand deposits and currency, f, B$.
MG Exog. Demand deposits and currency, g, B$.
MH 9 Demand deposits and currency, h, B$.
MR Exog. Demand deposits and currency, r, B$.
MS Exog. Demand deposits and currency, s, B$.
MUH Exog. Amount of output capable of being produced per unit of capital.
P2554 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 25-54.
PCD 37 Price index for CD.
PCGDPD 122 Percentage change in GDPD, annual rate, percentage points.
PCGDPR 123 Percentage change in GDPR, annual rate, percentage points.
PCM1 124 Percentage change in M1, annual rate, percentage points.
PCN 36 Price index for CN.
PCS 35 Price index for CS.
PD 33 Price index for X - EX + IM (domestic sales).
PEX 32 Price index for EX.
PF 10 Price index for X - FA.
PFA Exog. Price index for FA.
PG 40 Price index for COG.
PH 34 Price index for CS + CN + CD + IHH inclusive of indirect
business taxes.
PIEB Exog. Before tax profits, b, B92$.
PIEF 67 Before tax profits, f, B$.
PIH 38 Price index for residential investment.
PIK 39 Price index for nonresidential fixed investment.
PIM Exog. Price index for IM.
PIV 42 Price index for inventory investment, adjusted.
POP 120 Noninstitutional population 16+, millions.
POP1 Exog. Noninstitutional population of men 25-54, millions.
POP2 Exog. Noninstitutional population of women 25-54, millions.
POP3 Exog. Noninstitutional population of all others, 16+, millions.
PROD 118 Output per paid for worker hour ("productivity").
PS 41 Price index for COS.
PSI1 Exog. Ratio of PEX to PX.
PSI2 Exog. Ratio of PCS to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI3 Exog. Ratio of PCN to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI4 Exog. Ratio of PCD to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI5 Exog. Ratio of PIH to PD.
PSI6 Exog. Ratio of PIK to PD.
PSI7 Exog. Ratio of PG to PD.
PSI8 Exog. Ratio of PS to PD.
PSI9 Exog. Ratio of PIV to PD.
PSI10 Exog. Ratio of WG to WF.
PSI11 Exog. Ratio of WM to WF.
PSI12 Exog. Ratio of WS to WF.
PSI13 Exog. Ratio of gross product of g and s to total employee hours
of g and s.
PUG 104 Purchases of goods and services, g, B$.
PUS 110 Purchases of goods and services, s, B$.
PX 31 Price index for X.
Q Exog. Gold and foreign exchange, g, B$.
RB 23 Bond rate, percentage points.
RD Exog. Discount rate, percentage points.
RECG 105 Total receipts, g, B$.
RECS 112 Total receipts, s, B$.
RET Exog. Pension fund reserves to h from s, B$.
RM 24 Mortgage rate, percentage points.
RMA 128 After tax mortgage rate, percentage points.
RNT Exog. Rental income, h, B$.
RS 30 Three month Treasury bill rate, percentage points.
RSA 130 After tax bill rate, percentage points.
SB 72 Saving, b, B$.
SF 69 Saving, f, B$.
SG 76 Saving, g, B$.
SGP 107 NIA surplus (+) or deficit (-), g, B$.
SH 65 Saving, h, B$.
SHRPIE 121 Ratio of after tax profits to the wage bill net of employer
social security taxes.
SIFG 54 Employer social insurance contributions, f to g, B$.
SIFS Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, f to s, B$.
SIG 103 Total employer and employee social insurance contributions
to g, B$.
SIGG Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, g to g, B$.
SIHG 53 Employee social insurance contributions, h to g, B$.
SIHS Exog. Employee social insurance contributions, h to s, B$.
SIS 109 Total employer and employee social insurance contributions
to s, B$.
SISS Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, s to s, B$.
SR 74 Saving, r, B$.
SRZ 116 Saving rate, h.
SS 78 Saving, s, B$.
SSP 114 NIA surplus (+) or deficit (-), s, B$.
STAT Exog. Statistical discrepancy, B$.
STATP Exog. Statistical discrepancy relating to the use of chain type
price indices, B92$.
SUBG Exog. Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises,
g, B$.
SUBS Exog. Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises,
s, B$.
T Exog. 1 in 1952:1, 2 in 1952:2, etc.
TAUG Exog. Progressivity tax parameter in personal income tax equation
for g.
TAUS Exog. Progressivity tax parameter in personal income tax equation
for s.
TBG Exog. Corporate profit taxes, b to g, B$.
TBS Exog. Corporate profit taxes, b to s, B$.
TCG 102 Corporate profit tax receipts, g, B$.
TCS 108 Corporate profit tax receipts, s, B$.
TFG 49 Corporate profit taxes, f to g, B$.
TFS 50 Corporate profit taxes, f to s, B$.
THG 47 Personal income taxes, h to g, B$.
THS 48 Personal income taxes, h to s, B$.
TI Exog. 0 through 1996:2, .5 for 1996:3 and 1996:4, 1 for 1997:1
and 1997:2, and 2 thereafter.
TPG 101 Personal income tax receipts, g, B$.
TRFH Exog. Transfer payments, f to h, B$.
TRFR Exog. Transfer payments, f to r, B$.
TRGH Exog. Transfer payments, g to h, B$.
TRGR Exog. Transfer payments, g to r, B$.
TRGS Exog. Transfer payments, g to s, B$.
TRHR Exog. Transfer payments, h to r, B$.
TRRSH 111 Total transfer payments, s to h, B$.
TRSH Exog. Transfer payments, s to h, excluding unemployment insurance
benefits, B$.
TXCR Exog. Dummy variable for the investment tax credit.
U 86 Number of people unemployed, millions.
UB 28 Unemployment insurance benefits, B$.
UBR 128 Unborrowed reserves, B$.
UR 87 Civilian unemployment rate.
V 63 Stock of inventories, f, B92$.
WA 126 After tax wage rate. (Includes supplements to wages and
salaries except employer contributions for social insurance.)
WF 16 Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of workers in f.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WG 44 Average hourly earnings of civilian workers in g.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WH 43 Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of all workers.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WLDF Exog. Wage accruals less disbursements, f, B$.
WLDG Exog. Wage accruals less disbursements, g, B$.
WLDS Exog. Wage accruals less disbursements, s, B$.
WM 45 Average hourly earnings of military workers.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WR 119 Real wage rate of workers in f.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WS 46 Average hourly earnings of workers in s.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
X 60 Total sales f, B92$.
XX 61 Total sales, f, B$.
Y 11 Production, f, B92$.
YD 115 Disposable income, h, B$.
YNL 99 After tax nonlabor income, h, B$.
YS 98 Potential output of the firm sector.
YT 64 Taxable income, h, B$.
Z 97 Labor constraint variable.
B$ = Billions of dollars, B92$ = Billions of 1992 dollars.
|
Table A.3
The Equations of the US Model
STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS
LHS Var. Explanatory Variables
Household Sector
1. log(CS/POP)
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, log(CS/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], RSA
[Consumer expenditures: services]
2. log(CN/POP)
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, log(CN/POP)-1,<>log(CN/POP)-1,
log(AA/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], RMA
[Consumer expenditures: nondurables]
3. CD/POP
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, (CD/POP)-1, (KD/POP)-1, YD/(POP*PH),
RMA*CDA
[Consumer expenditures: durables]
4. IHH/POP
cnst, (IHH/POP)-1, (KH/POP)-1, (AA/POP)-1, YD/(POP*PH),
RMA-1*IHHA, RHO=2
[Residential investment--h]
5. log(L1/POP1)
cnst, log(L1/POP1)-1, log(WA/PH), Z, T
[Labor force--men 25-54]
6. log(L2/POP2)
cnst, log(L2/POP2)-1, log(WA/PH), Z
[Labor force--women 25-54]
7. log(L3/POP3)
cnst, log(L3/POP1)-1), log(WA/PH), Z, T
[Labor force--all others 16+]
8. log(LM/POP)
cnst, log(LM/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), Z
[Number of moonlighters]
9. log[MH/(POP*PH)]
cnst, log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)], log[YD/(POP*PH)], RSA, T
[Demand deposits and currency--h]
Firm Sector
10. logPF
logPF-1, log[WF(1+D5G)]-logLAM, cnst, logPIM,
log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04], T
[Price index for X-FA]
11. Y
cnst, Y-1, X, V-1, RHO=3
[Production--f]
12. <>IKF
(KK-KKMIN)-1, IKF-1-DELK*KK-1, <>Y, <>Y-1, <>Y-2, <>Y-3, <>Y-4
RB'-3*IKFA
[Nonresidential fixed investment--f]
13. <>logJF
cnst, DD772, log(JF/JHMIN)-1,DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1,
<>logJF-1, DD772*<>logJF-1, T, DD772*T, <>logY
[Number of jobs--f]
14. <>logHF
cnst, logHF-1, log(JF/JHMIN)-1, T, <>logY, RHO=1
[Average number of hours paid per job--f]
15. logHO
cnst, HFF, HFF-1, RHO=1
[Average number of overtime hours paid per job--f]
16. logWF-logLAM
logWF-1-logLAM-1, logPF, cnst, T, logPF-1
[Average hourly earnings excluding overtime--f]
17. log(MF/PF)
cnst, T, log(MF-1/PF), log(X-FA), RS(1-D2G-D2S)
[Demand deposits and currency--f]
18. <>logDF
log[(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF-1]
[Dividends paid--f]
19. INTF
5.5*TI + Sum0i=-33(1/400)RBiBFi+(1/400)RS*.35*|AF|
[Interest payments--f]
20. IVA
cnst, (PX-PX-1)V-1, RHO=1
[Inventory valuation adjustment]
21. <>logCCF
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF-1], D811824, D831834
[Capital consumption--f]
Financial Sector
22. BO/BR
cnst, (BO/BR)-1, RS, RD
[Bank borrowing from the Fed]
23. RB-RS-2
cnst, RB-1-RS-2, RS-RS-2, RS-1-RS-2, RHO=1
[Bond rate]
24. RM-RS-2
cnst, RM-1-RS-2, RS-RS-2, RS-1-RS-2
[Mortgage rate]
25. CG
cnst, <>RB, <>(CF-TFG-TFS)
[Capital gains or losses on corporate stocks held by h]
26. log[CUR/(POP*PF)]
cnst, log[CUR-1/(POP-1*PF)], log[(X-FA)/POP], RSA, RHO=1
[Currency held outside banks]
Import Equation
27. log(IM/POP)
cnst, log(IM/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], log(PF/PIM), RMA-1,
D691, D692, D714, D721
[Imports]
Government Sectors
28. logUB
cnst, logUB-1, logU, logWF, RHO=1
[Unemployment insurance benefits]
29. INTG
Sum0i=-17(1/400)(RBi-.4)BGi+(1/400)RS*.35*|AG|
[Interest payments--g]
30. RS
cnst, RS-1, 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1], JJS, PCGDPR, PCM1-1,
D794823*PCM1-1, <>RS-1, <>RS-2
[Three month Treasury bill rate]
IDENTITIES
31. PX = [PF(X - FA) + PFA*FA]/X
[Price index for X]
32. PEX = PSI1*PX
[Price index for EX]
33. PD = (PX*X - PEX*EX + PIM*IM)/(X - EX + IM)
[Price index for domestic sales]
34. PH = (PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD + PIH*IHH + IBTG + IBTS)/(CS + CN
+ CD + IHH)
[Price index for (CS + CN + CD + IHH) inclusive of
indirect business taxes]
35. PCS = PSI2(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price index for CS]
36. PCN = PSI3(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price index for CN]
37. PCD = PSI4(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price index for CD]
38. PIH = PSI5*PD
[Price index for residential investment]
39. PIK = PSI6*PD
[Price index for nonresidential fixed investment]
40. PG = PSI7*PD
[Price index for COG]
41. PS = PSI8*PD
[Price index for COS]
42. PIV = PSI9*PD
[Price index for inventory investment]
43. WH = 100[(WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS
- SIGG - SISS)/(JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS)]
[Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of all workers]
44. WG = PSI10*WF
[Average hourly earnings of civilian workers--g]
45. WM = PSI11*WF
[Average hourly earnings of military workers]
46. WS = PSI12*WF
[Average hourly earnings of workers--s]
47. THG = [D1G + ((TAUG*YT)/POP)]YT
[Personal income taxes--h to g]
48. THS = [D1S + ((TAUS*YT)/POP)]YT
[Personal income taxes--h to s]
49. TFG = D2G(PIEF - TFS)
[Corporate profits taxes--f to g]
50. TFS = D2S*PIEF
[Corporate profits taxes--f to s]
51. IBTG = [D3G/(1 + D3G)](PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD - IBTS)
[Indirect business taxes--g]
52. IBTS = [D3S/(1 + D3S)](PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD - IBTG)
[Indirect business taxes--s]
53. SIHG = D4G[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Employee social insurance contributions--h to g]
54. SIFG = D5G[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Employer social insurance contributions--f to g]
55. BF = -.50(AF-AF-1)+BF-34
[Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, f]
56. BG = -.65(AG-AG-1)+BG-18
[Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, g]
57. BR = -G1*MB
[Total bank reserves]
58. KD = (1 - DELD)KD-1 + CD
[Stock of durable goods]
59. KH = (1 - DELH)KH-1 + IHH
[Stock of housing--h]
60. X = CS + CN + CD + IHH + IKF + EX - IM + COG + COS + IKH + IKB + IKG
+ IHF + IHB - PIEB - CCB
[Total sales--f]
61. XX = PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD + PIH*IHH + PIK*IKF + PEX*EX - PIM*IM
+ PG*COG + PS*COS + PIK(IKH + IKB + IKG) + PIH(IHF + IHB)
- PX(PIEB + CCB) - IBTG - IBTS
[Total nominal sales--f]
62. HN = HF - HO
[Average number of non overtime hours paid per job--f]
63. V = V-1 + Y - X
[Stock of inventories--f]
64. YT = WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS + DF + DB
- DRS + INTF + INTG + INTS + INTOTH + INTROW + RNT + TRFH
- SIGG - SISS
[Taxable income--h]
65. SH = YT + CCH - PCS*CS - PCN*CN - PCD*CD - PIH*IHH - PIK*IKH - TRHR
- THG - SIHG + TRGH - THS - SIHS + TRSH + UB + INS + RET - WLDF
[Saving--h]
66. 0 = SH - <>AH - <>MH + CG - DISH
[Budget constraint--h; (determines AH)]
67. PIEF = XX + PIV(V - V-1) - WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) - RNT - TRFH
- TRFR - CCH + SUBG + SUBS - INTF -INTOTH - INTROW
- CCF - IVA - STAT - SIFG - SIFS + FIUS - FIROW - CCG - CCS
+ WLDG + WLDS + DISBA
[Before tax profits--f]
68. CF = XX - WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) - RNT - TRFH - TRFR - CCH + SUBG
+ SUBS - INTF -INTOTH - INTROW - PIK*IKF - PIH*IHF - SIFG
- SIFS + FIUS - FIROW - CCG - CCS + WLDF
[Cash flow--f]
69. SF = CF - TFG - TFS - DF
[Saving--f]
70. 0 = SF - <>AF - <>MF - DISF - STAT - WLDF + WLDG + WLDS + DISBA
[Budget constraint--f; (determines AF)]
71. 0 = <>MB + <>MH + <>MF + <>MR + <>MG + <>MS - <>CUR
[Demand deposit identity; (determines MB)]
72. SB = PX(PIEB + CCB) - PIK*IKB - PIH*IHB - DB - TBG - TBS
[Saving--b]
73. 0 = SB - <>AB - <>MB - <>(BR - BO) - DISB
[Budget constraint--b; (determines AB)]
74. SR = PIM*IM + TRHR + TRGR + TRFR - PEX*EX + FIROW - FIUS
[Saving--r]
75. 0 = SR - <>AR - <>MR + <>Q - DISR
[Budget constraint--r; (determines AR)]
76. SG = THG + IBTG + TFG + TBG + SIHG + SIFG - PG*COG - WG*JG*HG
- WM*JM*HM - INTG - TRGR - TRGH - TRGS - SUBG -INS + SIGG
- PIK*IKG + CCG
[Saving--g]
77. 0 = SG - <>AG - <>MG + <>CUR + <>(BR - BO) - <>Q - DISG
[Budget constraint--g; (determines AG unless AG is
exogenous)]
78. SS = THS + IBTS + TFS + TBS + SIHS + SIFS + TRGS + DRS - PS*COS
- WS*JS*HS - INTS - SUBS - TRSH - UB - RET + SISS + CCS
[Saving--s]
79. 0 = SS - <>AS - <>MS - DISS
[Budget constraint--s; (determines AS)]
80. 0 = <>AH + <>AF + <>AB + <>AG + <>AS + <>AR - CG + DISH
+ DISF + DISB + DISG + DISS + DISR + STAT
+ WLDF - WLDG - WLDS - DISBA
[Asset identity (redundant equation)]
81. M1 = M1-1 + <>MH + <>MF + <>MR + <>MS + MDIF
[Money supply]
82. GDP = XX + PIV(V - V-1) + IBTG + IBTS + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM
+ WS*JS*HS + WLDG + WLDS + PX(PIEB + CCB)
[Nominal GDP]
83. GDPR = Y + PIEB + CCB + PSI13(JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS) + STATP
[Real GDP]
84. GDPD = GDP/GDPR
[GDP chain price index]
85. E = JF + JG + JM + JS - LM
[Total employment, civilian and military]
86. U = L1 + L2 +L3 - E
[Number of people unemployed]
87. UR = U/(L1 + L2 + L3 - JM)
[Civilian unemployment rate]
89. AA = (AH + MH)/PH + KH
[Total net wealth--h]
90. D1GM = D1G + (2*TAUG*YT)/POP
[Marginal personal income tax rate--g]
91. D1SM = D1S + (2*TAUS*YT)/POP
[Marginal personal income tax rate--s]
92. KK = (1 - DELK)KK-1 + IKF
[Stock of capital--f]
93. KKMIN = Y/MUH
[Amount of capital required to produce Y]
94. JHMIN = Y/LAM
[Number of worker hours required to produce Y]
95. JJ = (JF*HF + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS)/POP
[Ratio of the total number of worker hours paid for to
the total population 16 and over]
96. JJS = JJ/JJP
[Ratio of actual to potential JJ]
97. Z = min(0,1 - JJP/JJ)
[Labor constraint variable]
98. YS = LAM(JJP*POP - JG*HG - JM*HM - JS*HS)
[Potential output of the firm sector]
99. YNL = [1-D1G-D1S-(TAUG+TAUS)(YT/POP)](RNT+DF+DB-DRS+INTF+INTG+INTS
+INTOTH+INTROW+TRFH)+TRGH+TRSH+UB
[After-tax nonlabor income--h]
100. HFF = HF - HFS
[Deviation of HF from its peak to peak interpolation]
101. TPG = THG
[Personal income tax receipts--g]
102. TCG = TFG + TBG
[Corporate profit tax receipts--g]
103. SIG = SIHG + SIFG + SIGG
[Total social insurance contributions to g]
104. PUG = PG*COG + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WLDG
[Purchases of goods and services--g]
105. RECG = TPG + TCG + IBTG + SIG
[Total receipts--g]
106. EXPG = PUG + TRGH + TRGR + TRGS + INTG + SUBG - WLDG - IGZ
[Total expenditures--g]
107. SGP = RECG - EXPG
[NIPA surplus or deficit--g]
108. TCS = TFS + TBS
[Corporate profit tax receipts--s]
109. SIS = SIHS + SIFS + SISS
[Total social insurance contributions to s]
110. PUS = PS*COS + WS*JS*HS + WLDS
[Purchases of goods and services--s]
111. TRRSH = TRSH + UB
[Total transfer payments--s to h]
112. RECS = THS + TCS + IBTS + SIS + TRGS
[Total receipts--s]
113. EXPS = PUS + TRRSH + INTS - DRS + SUBS - WLDS - ISZ
[Total expenditures--s]
114. SSP = RECS - EXPS
[NIPA surplus or deficit--s]
115. YD = WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS + RNT + DF
+ DB - DRS + INTF + INTG + INTS + INTOTH + INTROW + TRFH
+ TRGH + TRSH + UB - SIHG - SIHS - THG - THS - TRHR
- SIGG - SISS
[Disposable income--h]
116. SRZ = (YD - PCS*CS - PCN*CN - PCD*CD)/YD
[Saving rate--h]
117. IVF = V - V-1
[Inventory investment--f]
118. PROD = Y/(JF*HF)
[Output per paid for worker hour: "productivity"]
119. WR = WF/PF
[Real wage rate of workers in f]
120. POP = POP1 + POP2 + POP3
[Noninstitutional population 16 and over]
121. SHRPIE = [(1 - D2G - D2S)PIEF]/[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Ratio of after tax profits to the wage bill net of
employer social security taxes]
122. PCGDPR = 100[(GDPR/GDPR-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in GDPR]
123. PCGDPD = 100[(GDPD/GDPD-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in GDPD]
124. PCM1 = 100[(M1/M1-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in M1]
125. UBR = BR - BO
[Unborrowed reserves]
126. WA = 100[(1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
+ (1-D1GM-D1SM)(WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS - SIGG - SISS)]/
[JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS]
[After tax wage rate]
127. RSA = RS(1 - D1GM - D1SM)
[After tax bill rate]
128. RMA = RM(1 - D1GM - D1SM)
[After tax mortgage rate]
129. GNP = GDP + FIUS - FIROW
[Nominal GNP]
130. GNPR = GDPR + FIUS/FIUSD - FIROW/FIROWD
[Real GNP]
131. GNPD = GNP/GNPR
[GNP chain price index]
Sector definitions:
b = financial sector
f = firm sector
g = federal government sector
h = household sector
r = foreign sector
s = state and local government sector
|
Table A.4
The Raw Data Variables for the US Model
NIPA Data from the Survey of Current Business
Real variables are in 1992 dollars
Variable Table Line Description
R1 GDP 1.1 1 Gross Domestic Product
R2 CDZ 1.1 3 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods
R3 CNZ 1.1 4 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods
R4 CSZ 1.1 5 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services
R5 IKZ 1.1 8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment
R6 IHZ 1.1 11 Residential Fixed Investment
R7 IVZ 1.1 12 Change in Business Inventories
R9 EXZ 1.1 14 Exports
R10 IMZ 1.1 17 Imports
R61 PURGZ 1.1 21 Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, Federal
Government
R72 PURSZ 1.1 24 Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, S&L
R11 GDPR 1.2 1 Real Gross Domestic Product
R12 CD 1.2 3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods
R13 CN 1.2 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods
R14 CS 1.2 5 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services
R15 IK 1.2 8 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
R16 IH 1.2 11 Real Residential Fixed Investment
R17 IV 1.2 12 Real Change in Business Inventories
R19 EX 1.2 14 Real Exports
R20 IM 1.2 17 Real Imports
R21 PURG 1.2 21 Real Federal Government Purchases
R22 PURS 1.2 24 Real State and Local Government Purchases
R23 FAZ 1.7 6 Farm Gross Domestic Product
R24 PROGZ 1.7 11 Federal Government Gross Domestic Product
R25 PROSZ 1.7 12 State and Local Government Domestic Gross Product
R26 FA 1.8 6 Real Farm Gross Domestic Product
R27 PROG 1.8 11 Real Federal Government Gross Domestic Product
R28 PROS 1.8 12 Real State and Local Government Gross Domestic Product
R29 FIUS 1.9 2 Receipts of Factor Income from the Rest of the World
R30 FIROW 1.9 3 Payments of Factor Income to the Rest of the World
R31 CCT 1.9 6 Private Consumption of Fixed Capital
R32 TRF 1.9 14 Business Transfer Payments
R33 STAT 1.9 15 Statistical Discrepancy
R34 WLDF 1.9 21 Wage Accruals less Disbursements
R35 DPER 1.9 23 Personal Dividend Income
R36 TRFH 1.9 25 Business Transfer Payments to Persons
R94 FIUSR 1.10 2 Real Receipts of Factor Income from the Rest of
the World
R95 FIROWR 1.10 3 Real Payments of Factor Income to the Rest of the World
R37 COMPT 1.14 2 Compensation of Employees
R38 SIT 1.14 7 Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
R39 DC 1.14 25 Dividends
R41 PIECB 1.16 10 Profits Before Tax, Corporate Business
R42 DCB 1.16 13 Dividends, Corporate Business
R43 IVA 1.16 15 Inventory Valuation Adjustment, Corporate Business
R44 CCADCB 1.16 16 Capital Consumption Adjustment, Corporate Business
R45 INTF1 1.16 17 Net Interest, Corporate Business
R47 PIECBN 1.16 28 Profits Before Tax, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R48 TCBN 1.16 29 Profits Tax Liability, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R49 DCBN 1.16 31 Dividends, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R50 CCADCBN 1.16 34 Capital Consumption Adjustment, Nonfinancial Corporate
Business
R51 PRI 2.1 10 Proprietors'Income with Inventory Valuation and Capital
Consumption Adjustments
R52 RNT 2.1 13 Rental Income of Persons with Capital Consumption Adjustment
R53 PII 2.1 15 Personal Interest Income
R54 UB 2.1 18 Government Unemployment Insurance Benefits
R55 IPP 2.1 29 Interest Paid by Persons
R56 TRHR 2.1 30 Personal Transfer Payments to Rest of the World (net)
R57 TPG 3.2 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts, Federal Government
(see below for adjustments)
R58 TCG 3.2 6 Corporate Profits Tax Accruals, Federal Government
R59 IBTG 3.2 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals, Federal
Government
R60 SIG 3.2 13 Contributions for Social Insurance, Federal Government
R204 CONGZ 3.2 15 Consumption Expenditures, Federal Government
R62 TRGH 3.2 17 Transfer Payments (net) to Persons, Federal Government
(see below for adjustments)
R63 TRGR 3.2 18 Transfer Payments (net) to Rest of the World, Federal
Government
R64 TRGS 3.2 19 Grants in Aid to State and Local Governments, Federal
Government
R65 INTG 3.2 20 Net Interest Paid, Federal Government
R66 SUBG 3.2 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government
Enterprises, Federal Government
R67 WLDG 3.2 28 Wage Accruals less Disbursements, Federal Government
R68 TPS 3.3 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts, State and Local
Government (S&L)
R69 TCS 3.3 6 Corporate Profits Tax Accruals, S&L
R70 IBTS 3.3 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals, S&L
R71 SIS 3.3 11 Contributions for Social Insurance, S&L
R205 CONSZ 3.3 14 Consumption Expenditures, S&L
R73 TRRSH 3.3 15 Transfer Payments to Persons, S&L
R74 INTS 3.3 16 Net Interest Paid, S&L
R75 SUBS 3.3 20 Subsidies Less Current Surplus of Government
Enterprises, S&L
R76 WLDS 3.3 23 Wage Accruals less Disbursements, S&L
R77 COMPMIL 3.7b 8 Compensation of Employees, Military, Federal Government
R78 SIHGA 3.14 3 Personal Contributions for Social Insurance to the
Federal Government, annual data only
R79 SIQGA 3.14 5 Government Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
to the Federal Government, annual data only
R80 SIFGA 3.14 6 Other Employer Contributions for Social Insurance to
the Federal Government, annual data only
R81 SIHSA 3.14 14 Personal Contributions for Social Insurance to the
S&L Governments, annual data only
R82 SIQSA 3.14 16 Government Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
to the S&L Governments, annual data only
R83 SIFSA 3.14 17 Other Employer Contributions for Social Insurance to
the S&L Governments, annual data only
R8 IVFAZ 5.10 2 Change in Farm Business Inventories
R18 IVFA 5.11 2 Real Change in Farm Business Inventories
R96a INTPRIA 8.18 59 Net Interest, Sole Proprietorships and Partnerships,
annual data only
R96 INTROWA 8.18 61 Net Interest, Rest of the World, annual data only
Flow of Funds Data
Variable Code Description
R97 CDDCF 103020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, F
R98 NFIF 105000005 Net Financial Investment, F
R99 IHFZ 105012003 Residential Construction, F
R100 ACR 105030003 Access Rights from Federal Government
R101 PIEF 106060005 Profits before Tax, F
R102 CCNF 106300015 Depreciation Charges, NIPA, F
R103 DISF1 107005005 Discrepancy, F
R104 CDDCNN 113020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, NN
R105 NFINN 115000005 Net Financial Investment, NN
R105aIHNN 115012003 Residential Construction, NN
R108 CCNN 116300005 Consumption of Fixed Capital, NN.
Also, Current Surplus = Gross Saving, NN
R109 CDDCFA 133020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, FA
R110 NFIFA 135000005 Net Financial Investment, FA
R115 CCFAT 136300005 Consumption of Fixed Capital, FA
R112 PIEFA 136060005 Corporate Profits, FA
R116 CCADFA 136310103 Capital Consumption Adjustment, FA
R117 CDDCH1 153020005 Change in Checkable Deposits and Currency, H1
R118 MVCE, CCE 153064105 Net Purchases of Corporate Equities of Households,
MVCE is the market value of the stock. CCE is the
change in the stock excluding capital gains and
losses
R119 NFIH1 155000005 Net Financial Investment, H1
R119aCCHFF 156300005 Total Consumption of Fixed Capital, H1
R119bCCCD 156300103 Consumption of Fixed Capital, Consumer Durables, H1
R121 DISH1 157005005 Discrepancy, H1
R120 IKH1 165013003 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Nonprofit
Institutions
R122 NFIS 205000005 Net Financial Investment, S
R207 CCS 206300001 Consumption if Fixed Capital, S
R123 DISS 217005005 Discrepancy, S
R124 CDDCS 213020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, S
R125 RET 223150005 Pension Fund Reserves, S
R126 CGLDR 263011005 Change in Gold and SDR's, R
R127 CDDCR 263020005 Change in U.S. Demand Deposits, R
R128 CFXUS 263111005 Change in U.S. Official Foreign Exchange and Net
IMF Position
R129 NFIR 265000005 Net Financial Investment, R
R130 PIEF2 266060005 Corporate Profits of Foreign Subsidiaries, F
R131 DISR1 267005005 Discrepancy, R
R132 CGLDFXUS 313011005 Change in Gold, SDRs, and Foreign Exchange, US
R134 NGRR 313011301 Net Capital Grants from R, US
R133 CDDCUS 313020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, US
R135 INS 313154005 Insurance and Pension Reserves, US
R136 NFIUS 315000005 Net Financial Investment, US
R206 CCG 316300001 Consumption of Fixed Capital, G
R137 DISUS 317005005 Discrepancy, US
R138 CDDCCA 403020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, CA
R139 NIACA 404090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, CA
R140 NILCA 404190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, CA
R141 IKCAZ 405013003 Fixed Nonresidential Investment, CA
R142 GSCA 406000105 Gross Saving, CA
R143 DISCA 407005005 Discrepancy, CA
R144 NIDDLB2 443127005 Net Increase in Liabilities in the form of
+473127003 Checkable Deposits, B2
R145 CBRB2 443013053 Change in Reserves at Federal Reserve, B2
R146 IHBZ 645012205 Residential Construction, Multi Family Units, Reits
R147 CGD 656120000 Capital Gains Dividend
R148 CDDCB2 793020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, B2
-NIDDAB1
-CDDCCA
R149 NIAB2 444090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, B2
+474090005
+604090005
+544090005
+514090005
+574090005
+224090005
+634000005
+654090005
+554090005
+674190005
+614090005
+623065003
+644090005
+664090005
+504090005
R150 NILB2 444190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, B2
+474190005
+604090005
+544190005
+514190005
+573150005
+223150005
+634000005
+653164005
+554090005
+674190005
+614190005
+624190005
+644190005
+664190005
+504190005
R151 IKB2Z 795013005 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, B2
-IKB1Z
-IKCAZ
-IKMAZ
R152 DISB2 447005005 Discrepancy, B2
+477005005
+607005005
+547005005
+517005005
+657005005
+677005005
+617005005
+647005005
+667005005
R152aGSB2 446000105 Gross Saving, B2
+476000105
+546000105
+516000105
+576330063
+226330063
+656006003
+676330023
+616000105
+646000105
+666000105
R153 CGLDFXMA 713011005 Change in Gold and Foreign Exchange, MA
R154 CFRLMA 713068003 Change in Federal Reserve Loans to Domestic
Banks, MA
R155 NILBRMA 713113000 Change in Member Bank Reserves, MA
R156 NIDDLRMA 713122605 Change in Liabilities in the form of Demand Deposits
and Currency due to Foreign of the MA
R157 NIDDLGMA 713123105 Change in Liabilities in the form of Demand Deposits
and Currency due to U.S. Government of the MA
R158 NILCMA 713125005 Change in Liabilities in the form of Currency
Outside Banks of the MA
R159 NIAMA 714090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, MA
R160 NILMA 714190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, MA
R161 IKMAZ 715013003 Fixed Nonresidential Investment, MA
R162 GSMA 716000105 Gross Savings, MA
R163 DISMA 717005005 Discrepancy, MA
R164 CVCBRB1 723020005 Change in Vault Cash and Member Bank Reserves,
U.S. Chartered Commercial Banks
R165 NILVCMA 723025000 Change in Liabilities in the form of Vault Cash
of Commercial Banks of the MA
R166 NIDDAB1 743020003 Net increase in Financial Assets in the form of
Demand Deposits and Currency of Banks in U.S.
Possessions
R167 CBRB1A 753013003 Change in Reserves at Federal Reserve, Foreign
Banking Offices in U.S.
R168 NIDDLB1 763120005 Net Increase in Liabilities in the form of Checkable
Deposits, B1
R169 NIAB1 764090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, B1
R170 NILB1 764190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, B1
R171 IKB1Z 765013005 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, B1
R171aGSB1 766000105 Gross Saving, B1
R172 DISB1 767005005 Discrepancy, B1
R173 MAILFLT1 903023105 Mail Float, U.S. Government
R174 MAILFLT2 903029205 Mail Float, Private Domestic Nonfinancial
Interest Rate Data
Variable Description
R175 RS Three Month Treasury Bill Rate (Auction Average), percentage points
[FRB, Table 1.35. Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R176 RM Mortgage Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.53. FHA mortgages,
secondary markets. Quarterly average of monthly data.
Linear interpolation for missing monthly observations.
R177 RB Aaa Corporate Bond Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.35.
Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R178 RD Discount Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.14. Rate at
F.R. Bank of N.Y. Quarterly average, inclusive of any surcharge.]
Employment and Population Data
Variable Description
R179 CE Civilian Employment, SA in millions. [EE, A-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R180 U Unemployment, SA in millions. [EE, A-1. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R181 CL1 Civilian Labor Force of Males 25-54, SA in millions. [EE, A-8
and A-9. Sum of Employed and Unemployed. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R182 CL2 Civilian Labor Force of Females 25-54, SA in millions. [EE, A-8
and A-9. Sum of Employed and Unemployed. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R183 TL Total Labor Force, SA in millions. [BLS, unpublished, "Labor
Force Level--Total Noninstitutional Population." Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R184 AF1 Armed Forces of Males 25-54, millions. [BLS, unpublished, "Armed
Forces, Males 25-54." Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R185 AF2 Armed Forces of Females 25-54, millions. [BLS, unpublished,"Armed
Forces, Females 25-54." Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R186 POP Total noninstitutional population 16 and over, millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R187 POP1 Noninstitutional population of males 25-54, millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R188 POP2 Noninstitutional population of females 25-54,millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R189 JF Employment, Total Private Sector, All Persons, SA in millions.
[BLS, unpublished, "Basic Industry Data for the Economy less
General Government, All Persons."]
R190 HF Average Weekly Hours, Total Private Sector, All Persons, SA.
[BLS, unpublished, "Basic Industry Data for the Economy less
General Government, All Persons."]
R191 HO Average Weekly Overtime Hours in Manufacturing, SA. [EE, B-8.
Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R192 JQ Total Government Employment, SA in millions. [EE, B-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R193 JG Federal Government Employment, SA in millions. [EE, B-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R194 JHQ Total Government Employee Hours, SA in millions of hours per
quarter. [EE, B-10. Quarterly average of monthly data.]
Adjustments to the Raw Data
R195 SIHG = [SIHGA/(SIHGA + SIHSA)](SIG + SIS - SIT)
[Employee Contributions for Social Insurance, h to g.]
R196 SIHS = SIG + SIS - SIT - SIHG
[Employee Contributions for Social Insurance, h to s.]
R197 SIFG = [SIFGA/(SIFGA + SIQGA)](SIG - SIHG)
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, f to g.]
R198 SIGG = SIG - SIHG - SIFG
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, g to g.]
R199 SIFS = [SIFSA/(SIFSA + SIQSA)](SIS - SIHS)
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, f to s.]
R200 SISS = SIS - SIHS - SIFS
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, s to s.]
R201 TBG = [TCG/(TCG + TCS)](TCG + TCS - TCBN)
[Corporate Profit Tax Accruals, b to g.]
R202 TBS = TCG + TCS - TCBN - TBG
[Corporate Profit Tax Accruals, b to s.]
R202aINTPRI = [PII/(PII annual)]INTPRIA
[Net Interest Payments, Sole Proprietorships and Partnerships.]
R203 INTROW = [PII/(PII annual)]INTROWA
[Net Interest Payments of r.]
R57 TPG = TPG from raw data - TAXADJ
R62 TRGH = TRGH from raw data - TAXADJ
[TAXADJ: 1968:3 = 1.525, 1968:4 = 1.775, 1969:1 = 2.675,
1969:2 = 2.725, 1969:3 = 1.775, 1969:4 = 1.825, 1970:1 = 1.25,
1970:2 = 1.25, 1970:3 = 0.1, 1975:2 = -7.8.]
Multiplication factors (see the discussion in Section 3.2.2 in Fair (1994).)
Variable 1952:1- 1952:1- 1973:1 1952:1- 1970:1-1989:4
1971:4 1972:4 1977:4
POP 1.00547 1.00009 1.00006 - 1.0058886-.0000736075*TPOP90
POP1 0.99880 1.00084 1.00056 - 1.0054512 -.00006814*TPOP90
POP2 1.00251 1.00042 1.00028 - 1.00091654-.000011457*TPOP90
(CE+U) 1.00391 1.00069 1.00046 1.00239 1.0107312-.00013414*TPOP90
CL1 0.99878 1.00078 1.00052 1.00014 1.00697786-.00008722*TPOP90
CL2 1.00297 1.00107 1.00071 1.00123 -
CE 1.00375 1.00069 1.00046 1.00268 1.010617-.00013271*TPOP90
TPOP90 is 0 before 1970:1, 79 in 1970:1, 78 in 1970:2, ..., 1 in 1989:3,
0 in 1989:4, and 0 thereafter.
Abbreviations:
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
EE Employment and Earnings, October 1998
FRB Federal Reserve Bulletin, October 1998
SA Seasonally Adjusted
Notes:
1. For the construction of variables R195, R197, R199, and R203, the
annual observation was used for each quarter of the year.
2. See Table A.1 for abbreviations: B1, B2, CA, F, FA, H1, MA, NN, R,
S, US.
The Raw Data Variables in Alphabetical Order
Variable No. Variable No. Variable No. Variable No.
AF1 R184 DISF1 R103 JG R193 PROSZ R25
AF2 R185 DISH1 R121 JHQ R194 PSA R93
CBRB1A R167 DISMA R163 JQ R192 PURG R21
CBRB2 R145 DISR1 R131 MAILFLT1 R173 PURGZ R61
CCADCB R44 DISS R123 MAILFLT2 R174 PURS R22
CCADCBN R50 DISUS R137 PURSZ R72
CCADFA R116 DPER R35 MVCE R118 PYA R84
CCCB R40 EX R19 NFIF R98 RB R177
CCCBN R46 EXZ R9 NFIFA R110 RD R178
CCCD R119b
CCE R118 FA R26 NFIH1 R119 RET R125
CCFAT R115 FAZ R23 NFINN R105 RM R176
CCG R206 FIROW R30 NFIR R129 RNT R52
CCHFF R119a
CCNF R102 FIROWR R95 NFIS R122 RS R175
CCNN R108 FIUS R29 NFIUS R136 SIFG R197
CCS R207 FIUSR R94 NGRR R134 SIFGA R80
CCT R31 GDP R1 NIAB1 R169 SIFS R199
CD R12 GDPR R11 NIAB2 R149 SIFSA R83
GSB1 R171a
GSB2 R152a
CDDCB2 R148 GSCA R142 NIACA R139 SIG R60
CDDCCA R138 GSMA R162 NIAMA R159 SIGG R198
CDDCF R97 HF R190 NIDDAB1 R166 SIHG R195
CDDCFA R109 HO R191 NIDDLB1 R168 SIHGA R78
CDDCH1 R117 IBTG R59 NIDDLB2 R144 SIHS R196
CDDCNN R104 IBTS R70 NIDDLGMA R157 SIHSA R81
CDDCR R127 IH R16 NIDDLRMA R156 SIQGA R79
CDDCS R124 IHBZ R146 NILBRMA R155 SIQSA R82
CDDCUS R133 IHFZ R99 NILB1 R170 SIS R71
IHNN R105a
CDZ R2 IHZ R6 NILB2 R150 SISS R200
CE R179 IK R15 NILCA R140 SIT R38
CFRLMA R154 IKB1Z R171 NILCMA R158 STAT R33
CFXUS R128 IKB2Z R151 NILMA R160 SUBG R66
CGD R147 IKCAZ R141 NILVCMA R165 SUBS R75
CGLDFXMA R153 IKFA R111 TBG R201
CGLDFXUS R132 IKH1 R120 TBS R202
CGLDR R126 IKMAZ R161 TCBN R48
CL1 R181 IKNN R106 TCG R58
CL2 R182 IKZ R5 TCS R69
CN R13 IM R20 PIECB R41
CNZ R3 IMZ R10 PIECBN R47 TL R183
COMPMIL R77 INS R135 PIEFA R112 TPG R57
COMPT R37 INTF R45 PIEF1 R101 TPS R68
CONGZ R204 INTG R65 PIEF2 R130 TRF R32
INTPRI R202a
INTPRIA R96a
CONSZ R205 INTROW R203 TRFH R36
CS R14 INTROWA R96 PII R53 TRGH R62
CSZ R4 INTS R74 TRGR R63
CVCBRB1 R164 IPP R55 TRGS R64
DC R39 IV R17 POP R186 TRHR R56
DCB R42 IVA R43 POP1 R187 TRRSH R73
DCBN R49 IVFA R18 POP2 R188 U R180
DFA R113 IVFAZ R8 PRI R51 UB R54
DISB1 R172 IVNN R107 PROG R27 WLDF R34
DISB2 R152 IVZ R7 PROGZ R24 WLDG R67
DISCA R143 JF R189 PROS R28 WLDS R76
|
Table A.6
Construction of the Variables for the US Model
Variable in Construction
US Model
AA Def., Eq. 89.
AB Def., Eq. 73. Base Period=1971:4, Value=482.67
AF Def., Eq. 70. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-385.64
AG Def., Eq. 77. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-219.59
AH Def., Eq. 66. Base Period=1971:4, Value=2203.01
AR Def., Eq. 75. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-18.36
AS Def., Eq. 79. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-108.31
BF Def., Eq. 55. Value for 1952.1 taken to be 0.0; values before 1952.1
taken to be the same as the value for 1952.1
BG Def., Eq. 56. Value for 1952.1 taken to be 7.1; values before 1952.1
taken to be the same as the value for 1952.1
BO Sum of CFRLMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=.04
BR Sum of CVCBRB1 + CBRB1A + CBRB2. Base Period=1971:4, Value=35.33
CCB [GSB1+GSB2-(PIECB-PIECBN)-(DCB-DCBN)-TPG-TBS]/PX. See below for PX.
CCF CCNF+CCNN+CCFAT
CCG CCG
CCH CCHFF-CCCD
CCS CCS
CD CD
CDA Peak to peak interpolation of CD/POP. Peak quarters are 1953:1,
1955:3, 1960:2, 1963:2, 1965:4, 1968:3, 1973:2, 1978:4, 1985:1,
1988:4, 1994:1, and 1995:4.
CF Def., Eq. 68
CG MVCE-MVCE-1-CCE
CN CN
COG PURG-PROG
COS PURS-PROS
CS CS
CUR Sum of NILCMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=53.52
D1G Def., Eq. 47
D1GM Def., Eq. 90
D1S Def., Eq. 48
D1SM Def., Eq. 91
D2G Def., Eq. 49
D2S Def., Eq. 50
D3G Def., Eq. 51
D3S Def., Eq. 52
D4G Def., Eq. 53
D5G Def., Eq. 55
DB DCB-DCBN
DELD .056624
DELH .003967
DELK .010452 for 1952:1-1974:4, .013780 for 1975:1-1981:4, .016575
for 1982:1-1993:4, .019069 for 1994:1 on
DF DC-(DCB-DCBN)
DISB DISB1+DISB2
DISBA GSB1+GSB2-(PIECB-PIECBN)-(DCB-DCBN)-TBG-TBS-CCT+(CCHFF-CCCB)
+CCNF+CCNN+CCFAT-CCADCB
DISF DISF1-CCADFA+ACR
DISG DISUS+DISCA+DISMA-GSCA-GSMA-ACR
DISH DISH1
DISR DISR+NGRR
DISS DISS
DRS DC-DPER
E TL-U
EX EX
EXPG Def., Eq. 106
EXPS Def., Eq. 113
FA FA
FIROW FIROW
FIROWD FIROW/FIROWR
FIUS FIUS
FIUSD FIUS/FIUSR
G1 Def., Eq. 57
GDP Def., Eq. 82, or GDP
GDPD Def., Eq. 84
GDPR GDPR
GNP Def., Eq. 129
GNPD Def., Eq. 131
GNPR Def., Eq. 130
HF 13*HF
HFF Def., Eq. 100
HFS Peak to peak interpolation of HF. The peaks are 1952:4, 1966:1,
1977:2, and 1989:3. Flat end.
HG JHQ/JQ
HM 520
HN Def., Eq. 62
HO 13*HO. Constructed values for 1952:1-1955:4.
HS JHQ/JQ
IBTG IBTG
IBTS IBTS
IGZ PURGZ-CONGZ
IHB IHBZ/(IHZ/IH)
IHF (IHFZ+IHNN)/(IHZ/IH)
IHH (IHZ-IHFZ-IHBZ-IHNN)/(IHZ/IH)
IHHA Peak to peak interpolation of IHH/POP. Peak quarters are 1955:2,
1963:4, 1978:3, 1986:3, and 1994:2. Flat end.
IKB (IKB1Z+IKB2Z)/(IKZ/IK)
IKF (IKZ-IKH1-IKBZ)/(IKZ/IK)
IKFA Peak to peak interpolation of IKF. Peak quarters are 1957:3, 1964:3,
1966:1, 1969:3, 1974:1, 1980:1, 1985:2, 1993:2, and 1994:4.
IKG ((IKCAZ+IKMAZ)/(IKZ/IK)
IKH IKH1/(IKZ/IK)
IM IM
INS INS
INTF INTF1+INTPRI
INTG INTG
INTOTH PII-INTF1-INTG-INTS-IPP-INTROW-INTPRI;
INTROW INTROW
INTS INTS
ISZ PURSZ-CONSZ
IVA IVA
IVF IV
JF JF
JG JG
JHMIN Def., Eq. 94
JJ Def., Eq. 95
JJP Peak to peak interpolation of JJ. The peaks are 1952:4, 1955:4,
1959:3, 1969:1, 1973:3, 1979:3, 1985:4, 1990:1, 1995:1, and 1998:3.
JJS Def., Eq. 96
JM TL-CE-U
JS JQ-JG
KD Def., Eq. 58. Base Period=1952:4, Value=295.0, Dep. Rate=DELD
KH Def., Eq. 59. Base Period=1952:4, Value=1502.8, Dep. Rate=DELH
KK Def., Eq. 92. Base Period=1952:4, Value=1662.8, Dep. Rate=DELK
KKMIN Def., Eq. 93
L1 CL1+AF1
L2 CL2+AF2
L3 Def., Eq. 86
LAM Peak to peak interpolation of Y/(JF*HF). Peak quarters are 1953:4,
1961:4, 1965:4, 1973:2, 1977:3, and 1992:4.
LM Def., Eq. 85
M1 Def., Eq. 81. Base Period=1971:4, Value=250.13
MB Def., Eq. 71. Also sum of -NIDDLB1+NIDDAB1+CDDCB2-NIDDLB2.
Base Period=1971:4, Value=-191.73
MDIF NIDDAB1+CDDCB2+CDDCCA-MAILFLT1
MF Sum of CDDCF+MAILFLT1+MAILFLT2+CDDCFA+CDDCNN, Base Period= 1971:4,
Value=84.07
MG Sum of CDDCUS+CDDCCA-NIDDLRMA-NIDDLGMA, Base Period=1971:4,
Value=10.53
MH Sum of CDDCH1. Base Period=1971:4, Value=132.03
MR Sum of CDDCR. Base Period=1971:4, Value=6.50
MS Sum of CDDCS. Base Period=1971:4, Value=12.11
MUH Peak to peak interpolation of Y/KK. Peak quarters are 1953:2, 1955:3,
1959:2, 1962:3, 1965:4, 1969:1, 1973:1, 1977:3, 1981:1, 1984:2,
1988:4, 1993:4, and 1998:1. Flat beginning and flat end.
PCD CDZ/CD
PCGNPD Def., Eq. 122
PCGNPR Def., Eq. 123
PCM1 Def., Eq. 124
PCN CNZ/CN
PCS CSZ/CS
PD Def., Eq. 33
PEX EXZ/EX
PF Def., Eq. 31
PFA FAZ/FA
PG (PURGZ-PROGZ)/(PURG-PROG)
PH Def., Eq. 34
PIEB (PIECB-PIECBN)/PX. See below for PX.
PIEF Def., Eq. 67, or PIEF1+PIEF2+PIEFA (for checking only)
PIH IHZ/IH
PIK IKZ/IK
PIM IMZ/IM
PIV IVZ/IV, with the following adjustments: 1954:4 = .2917,
1959:3 = .2945, 1971:4 = .3802, 1975:3 = .5694, 1975:4 = .5694,
1979:4 = .9333, 1980:2 = .7717, 1982:3 = .8860, 1983:3 = .8966,
1987:3 = .9649, 1992:1 = .9273
POP POP
POP1 POP1
POP2 POP2
POP3 POP-POP1-POP2
PROD Def., Eq. 118
PS (PURSZ-PROSZ)/(PURS-PROS)
PSI1 Def., Eq. 32
PSI2 Def., Eq. 35
PSI3 Def., Eq. 36
PSI4 Def., Eq. 37
PSI5 Def., Eq. 38
PSI6 Def., Eq. 39
PSI7 Def., Eq. 40
PSI8 Def., Eq. 41
PSI9 Def., Eq. 42
PSI10 Def., Eq. 44
PSI11 Def., Eq. 45
PSI12 Def., Eq. 46
PSI13 (PROG+PROS)/(JHQ + 520*AF)
PUG Def., Eq. 104 or PURGZ
PUS Def., Eq. 110 or PURSZ
PX (CDZ+CNZ+CSZ+IHZ+IKZ+PURGZ-PROGZ+PURSZ-PROSZ+EXZ-IMZ-IBTG-IBTS)/
(CD+CN+CS+IH+IK+PURG-PROG+PURS-PROS+EX-IM)
Q Sum of CGLDFXUS+CGLDFXMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=12.26.
RB RB
RD RD
RECG Def., Eq. 105
RECS Def., Eq. 112
RET RET
RM RM
RMA Def., Eq. 128
RNT RNT
RS RS
RSA Def., Eq. 130
SB Def., Eq. 72
SF Def., Eq. 69
SG Def., Eq. 76
SGP Def., Eq. 107
SH Def., Eq. 65
SHRPIE Def., Eq. 121
SIFG SIFG
SIFS SIFS
SIG SIG
SIGG SIGG
SIHG SIHG
SIHS SIHS
SIS SIS
SISS SISS
SR Def., Eq. 74
SRZ Def., Eq. 116
SS Def., Eq. 78
SSP Def., Eq. 114
STAT STAT
STATP Def., Eq. 83
SUBG SUBG
SUBS SUBS
TAUG Determined from a regression. See Section 3.2.3 in Fair (1994).
TAUS Determined from a regression. See Section 3.2.3 in Fair (1994).
TBG TBG
TBS TBS
TCG TCG
TCS TCS
TFG Def., Eq. 102
TFS Def., Eq. 108
THG Def., Eq. 101
THS TPS
TI 0 through 1996:2, .5 for 1996:3 and 1996:4, 1 for 1997:1
and 1997:2, and 2 thereafter.
TPG TPG
TRFH TRFH
TRFR TRF-TRFH
TRGH TRGH
TRGR TRGR
TRGS TRGS
TRHR TRHR
TRRSH TRRSH
TRSH Def., Eq. 111
TXCR .5 in 1962:3-1963:4 and 1971:3, 1.0 in 1964:1-1966:3 and 1967:3-1969:1
and 1971:4-1975:1, 1.43 in 1975:2-1986:1, and 0 otherwise
U (CE+U)-CE
UB UB
UBR Def., Eq. 125
UR Def., Eq. 87
V Def., Eq. 117. Base Period=1993:4, Value=1096.0
WA Def., Eq. 126
WF [COMPT-(PROGZ-WLDG)-(PROSZ-WLDS)-(SIT-SIGG-SISS)+PRI]/
[JF(HF+.5*HO)]
WG (PROGZ-COMPMIL-WLDG)/[JG(JHQ/JQ)]
WH Def., Eq. 43
WLDF WLDF
WLDG WLDG
WLDS WLDS
WM COMPMIL/[520(TL-CE-U)]
WR Def., Eq. 119
WS (PROSZ-WLDS)/[(JQ-JG)(JHQ/JQ)]
X Def., Eq. 60
XX Def., Eq. 61
Y Def., Eq. 63
YD Def., Eq. 115
YNL Def., Eq. 99
YS Def., Eq. 98
YT Def., Eq. 64
Z Def., Eq. 97
Variables in the model in the first column are defined in terms of the raw data variables
in Table A.4 or by the identities in Table A.3.
|
Table A.7
First Stage Regressors for the US Model for 2SLS and 3SLS
Basic Sets
Linear Log
1 constant constant
2 (AA/POP)-1 log(AA/POP)-1
3 COG+COS log(COG+COS)
4 (CD/POP)-1 log(CD/POP)-1
5 (CN/POP)-1 log(CN/POP)-1
6 (CS/POP)-1 log(CS/POP)-1
7 (1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1 log(1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1
8 EX logEX
9 HF-1 logHF-1
10 (IHH/POP)-1 log(IHH/POP)-1
11 (IM/POP)-1 log(IM/POP)-1
12 (JF-JHMIN)-1 log(JF/JHMIN)-1
13 (JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP log[(JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP]
14 (KH/POP)-1 log(KH/POP)-1
15 (KK-KKMIN)-1 log(KK/KKMIN)-1
16 PCM1-1 PCM1-1
17 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1
18 PF-1 logPF-1
19 PIM-1 logPIM-1
20 RB-1 RB-1
21 RS-1 RS-1
22 RS-2 RS-2
23 T T
24 (TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1) log[(TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1)]
25 V-1 logV-1
26 WF-1 logWF-1
27 Y-1 logY-1
28 Y-2 logY-2
29 Y-3 logY-3
30 Y-4 logY-4
31 [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
32 Z-1 Z-1
33 UR-1 UR-1
Additional First Stage Regressors for Each Equation
Basic
Eq. Set Additional
1 log log(WA/PH)-1, log(PCS/PH)-1, RSA-1, AG1, AG2, AG3,
log(CS/POP)-2, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
2 log log(WA/PH)-1, log(PCN/PH)-1, RSA-1, RMA-1, AG1, AG2, AG3,
log(CN/POP)-2, log(CN/POP)-3, log(AA/POP)-2,
log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
3 linear (WA/PH)-1, (PCD/PH)-1, RMA-1*CDA, (KD/POP)-1, AG1, AG2,
AG3, (CD/POP)-2, [YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
4 linear (WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, RMA-1*IHHA, (IHH/POP)-2,
(AA/POP)-2, [YD/(POP*PH)]-1, [YD/(POP*PH)]-2,
RMA-2*IHHA-1, (KH/POP)-2, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1, (IHH/POP)-3,
(AA/POP)-3,(KH/POP)-3
5 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L1/POP1)-1, log(L1/POP1)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
6 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L2/POP2)-1, log(L2/POP2)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
7 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L3/POP3)-1, log(L3/POP1)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
8 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(LM/POP)-1, log(LM/POP)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
9 log log[MH/(POP*PH)]-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)]-1,
AG1, AG2, AG3, AG1-1, AG2-1, AG3-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2,
RSA-2
10 log log(1+D5G), log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1, logPF-2, log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-2,
log(1+D5G)-1, logPIM-1, logPIM-2, log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-3,
log(1+D5G)-2, logWF-2-logLAM-2 logPF-3,
logWF-1-logLAM-1 in place of logWF-1,
no logPIM
11 linear V-2, V-3, V-4
12 linear IKF-1, DELK*KK-1, [RB(1-D2G-D2S)]-1, (KK-KKMIN)-2,
TXCR*IKFA, Y-5, RB'-3*IKFA, IKF-2
13 log <>logJF-1, log(JF/JHMIN)-2, <>logJF-2, DD772, DD772*T,
DD772*<>logJF-1, DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1, DD772-1*log(JF/JHMIN)-2,
DD772-1*<>logJF-2
14 log logHF-2, log(JF/JHMIN)-2, DD772, DD772*T,
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1, DD772-1*log(JF/JHMIN)-2
16 log log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1, logPF-1,logPF-2, logPF-3, logPF-4, logPF-5,
logPF-6,logWF-2-logLAM-2, logWF-3-logLAM-3, logWF-4-logLAM-4,
logWF-5-logLAM-5, logWF-6-logLAM-6, logPIM-1, logPIM-2,
log(1+D5G), log(1+D5G)-1, log(1+D5G)-2,
logWF-1-logLAM-1 in place of logWF-1,
no logPIM
17 log log(MF/PF)-1, 1-D2G-D2S, RS-1(1-D2G-D2S)-1, log(MF-2/PF-1),
RS-2(1-D2G-D2S)-2
18 log log(PIEF-TFG-TFS)-1, log(D2G+D2S), logDF-1, logDF-2
22 linear (BO/BR)-1, RD-1, (BO/BR)-2, RD-2
23 linear RB-2, RB-3, RS-3, RS-4, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
24 linear RM-1, RM-2, RS-3, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
25 linear <>(CF-TFG-TFS)-1, CF-1, D2G+D2S, TFG+TFS
26 log log[CUR/(POP*PF)]-1, log[(X-FA)/POP]-1, log[CUR-2/(POP-2*PF-1)]
27 log D691, D692, D714, D721, RSA-1, RSA-2, log(IM/POP)-1,
log(IM/POP)-2, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1,
log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2, log(PF/PIM)-2
28 log logUB-1, logU-1, logU-2, logUB-2
30 linear D794823*PCM1-1, JJS-1, RS-3, RS-4, RS-5, RS-6,
100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
3SLS First Stage Regressors
1 constant
2 (AA/POP)-1
3 COG+COS
4 (CD/POP)-1
5 log(CN/POP)-1
6 log(CS/POP)-1
7 (1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1
8 EX
9 logHF-1
10 (IHH/POP)-1
11 log(IM/POP)-1
12 log(JF/JHMIN)-1
13 (JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP
14 (KH/POP)-1
15 (KK-KKMIN)-1
16 PCM1-1
17 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1
18 logPF-1
19 logPIM-1
20 RB-1
21 RS-1
22 RS-2
23 T
24 (TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1)
25 V-1
26 logWF-1
27 Y-1
28 Y-2
29 Y-3
30 Y-4
31 Z-1
32 UR-1
33 log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1
34 log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2
35 AG1
36 AG2
37 AG3
38 (KD/POP)-1
39 log(CN/POP)-2
40 log(L1/POP1)-1
41 log(L2/POP2)-1
42 log(L3/POP3)-1
43 log(LM/POP)-1
44 log(WA/PH)-1
45 log(WA/PH)-2
46 log(WA/PH)-3
47 log(WA/PH)-4
48 RM-1
49 RM-2
50 RS-3
51 RS-4
52 RS-5
53 RD-1
54 (BO/BR)-1
55 log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)]
56 log(MF-1/PF)
57 log[CUR-1/(POP-1*PF)]
58 D794823*PMC1-1
59 log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1
60 IKF-1-DELK*KK-1
61 log(JF-1/JF-2)
62 DD772
63 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1
64 DD772*<>logJF-2
65 DD772*T
66 JJS-1
67 (IHH/POP)-2
68 TXCR*IKFA
69 RB'-3*IKFA
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Table A.9
Cross-Reference Chart for the US Model
Variable Eq. Used in Equation
AA 89 2, 4
AB 73 80
AF 70 19, 55, 80
AG 77 29, 56, 80
AG1 Exog 1, 2, 3
AG2 Exog 1, 2, 3
AG3 Exog 1, 2, 3
AH 66 80, 89
AR 75 80
AS 79 80
BF 55 19
BG 56 29
BO 22 73, 77, 125
BR 57 22, 73, 77, 125
CCB Exog 60, 61, 72, 82, 83
CCF 21 67
CCG Exog 67, 68, 76
CCH Exog 65, 67, 68
CCS Exog 67, 68, 77
CD 3 34, 51, 52, 58, 60, 61, 65, 116
CDA Exog 3
CF 68 25, 69
CG 25 66, 80
CN 2 34, 51, 52, 60, 61, 65, 116
COG Exog 60, 61, 76, 104
COS Exog 60, 61, 78, 110
CS 1 34, 51, 52, 60, 61, 65, 116
CUR 26 71, 77
D1G Exog 47, 90, 99
D1GM 90 126, 127, 128
D1S Exog 48, 91, 99
D1SM 91 126, 127, 128
D2G Exog 17, 49, 121
D2S Exog 17, 50, 121
D3G Exog 35, 36, 37, 51
D3S Exog 35, 36, 37, 52
D4G Exog 53, 126
D5G Exog 10, 54
D691 Exog 27
D692 Exog 27
D714 Exog 27
D721 Exog 27
D794823 Exog 30
D811824 Exog 21
D831834 Exog 21
DB Exog 64, 72, 99, 115
DD772 Exog 13, 14
DELD Exog 58
DELH Exog 59
DELK Exog 12, 92
DF 18 64, 69, 99, 115
DISB Exog 73, 80
DISBA Exog 70, 73
DISF Exog 70, 80
DISG Exog 77, 80
DISH Exog 66, 80
DISR Exog 75, 80
DISS Exog 79, 80
DRS Exog 64, 78, 99, 113, 115
E 85 86
EX Exog 33, 60, 61, 74
EXPG 106 107
EXPS 113 114
FA Exog 17, 26, 31
FIROW Exog 67, 68, 74, 129, 130
FIROWD Exog 130
FIUS Exog 67, 68, 74, 129, 130
FIUSD Exog 130
G1 Exog 57
GDP 82 84, 129
GDPD 84 123
GDPR 83 84, 122, 130
GNP 129 131
GNPD 131 -
GNPR 130 131
HF 14 62, 95, 100, 118
HFF 100 15
HFS Exog 100
HG Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 95, 98, 104, 115, 126
HM Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 95, 98, 104, 115, 126
HN 62 43, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 115, 121, 126
HO 15 43, 53, 54, 62, 64, 67, 68, 115, 121, 126
HS Exog 43, 64, 78, 82, 83, 95, 98, 110, 115, 126
IBTG 51 34, 52, 61, 76, 82, 105
IBTS 52 34, 51, 61, 78, 82, 112
IGZ Exog 106
IHB Exog 60, 61, 72
IHF Exog 60, 61, 68
IHH 4 34, 59, 60, 61, 65
IHHA Exog 4
IKB Exog 60, 61, 72
IKF 12 21, 60, 61, 68, 92
IKFA Exog 12
IKG Exog 60, 61, 76
IKH Exog 60, 61, 65
IM 27 33, 60, 61, 74
INS Exog 65, 76
INTF 19 64, 67, 68, 99, 115
INTG 29 64, 76, 99, 106, 115
INTOTH Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115
INTROW Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115
INTS Exog 64, 78, 99, 113, 115
ISZ Exog 113
IVA 20 67
IVF 117 -
JF 13 14, 43, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 85, 95, 115, 118,
JG Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 85, 95, 98, 104, 115, 12
JHMIN 94 13, 14
JJ 95 96, 97
JJP Exog 96, 97, 98
JJS 96 30
JM Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 85, 87, 95, 98, 104, 115
JS Exog 43, 64, 78, 82, 83, 85, 95, 98, 110, 115, 12
KD 58 3
KH 59 4, 89
KK 92 12
KKMIN 93 12
L1 5 86, 87
L2 6 86, 87
L3 7 86, 87
LAM Exog 10, 16, 94, 98
LM 8 85
M1 81 124
MB 71 57, 73
MDIF Exog 81
MF 17 70, 71, 81
MG Exog 71, 77
MH 9 66, 71, 81, 89
MR Exog 71, 75, 81
MRS Exog 68, 76
MS Exog 71, 79, 81
MUH Exog 93
P2554 Exog -
PCD 37 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116
PCGDPD 122 -
PCGDPR 123 30
PCM1 124 30
PCN 36 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116
PCS 35 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116
PD 33 12, 30, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42
PEX 32 33, 61, 74
PF 10 16, 17, 26, 27, 31, 119
PFA Exog 31
PG 40 61, 76, 104
PH 34 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 27, 89
PIEB Exog 60, 61, 72, 82, 83
PIEF 67 18, 49, 50, 121
PIH 38 34, 61, 65, 68, 72
PIK 39 21, 61, 65, 68, 72, 76
PIM Exog 10, 27, 33, 61, 74
PIV 42 67, 82
POP 120 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 26, 27, 47, 48, 90, 91,
POP1 Exog 5, 120
POP2 Exog 6, 120
POP3 Exog 7, 120
PROD 118 -
PS 41 61, 78, 110
PSI1 Exog 32
PSI2 Exog 35
PSI3 Exog 36
PSI4 Exog 37
PSI5 Exog 38
PSI6 Exog 39
PSI7 Exog 40
PSI8 Exog 41
PSI9 Exog 42
PSI10 Exog 44
PSI11 Exog 45
PSI12 Exog 46
PSI13 Exog 83
PUG 104 106
PUS 110 113
PX 31 20, 32, 33, 61, 72, 82, 119
Q Exog 75, 77
RB 23 12, 19, 25, 29
RD Exog 22
RECG 105 107
RECS 112 114
RET Exog 65, 78
RM 24 128
RMA 12 82, 3, 4, 27
RNT Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115
RS 30 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 29, 127
RSA 130 1, 9, 26
SB 72 73
SF 69 70
SG 76 77
SGP 107 -
SH 65 66
SHRPIE 121 -
SIFG 54 67, 68, 76, 103
SIFS Exog 67, 68, 78, 109
SIG 103 105
SIGG Exog 43, 64, 76, 103, 115, 126
SIHG 53 65, 76, 103, 115
SIHS Exog 65, 78, 109, 115
SIS 109 112
SISS Exog 43, 64, 78, 109, 115, 126
SR 74 75
SRZ 116 -
SS 78 79
SSP 114 -
STAT Exog 67, 70, 80
STATP Exog 83
SUBG Exog 67, 68, 76, 106
SUBS Exog 67, 68, 78, 113
T Exog 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16
TAUG Exog 47, 90, 99
TAUS Exog 48, 91, 99
TBG Exog 72, 76, 102
TBS Exog 72, 78, 108
TCG 102 105
TCS 108 112
TFG 49 18, 25, 69, 76, 102
TFS 50 18, 25, 49, 69, 78, 108
THG 47 65, 76, 101, 115
THS 48 65, 78, 112, 115
TI Exog 29
TPG 101 105
TRFH Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115
TRFR Exog 67, 68, 74
TRGH Exog 65, 76, 99, 106, 115
TRGR Exog 74, 76, 106
TRGS Exog 76, 78, 106, 112
TRHR Exog 65, 74, 115
TRRSH 111 113
TRSH Exog 65, 78, 99, 111, 115
TXCR Exog 12
U 86 28, 87
UB 28 65, 78, 99, 111, 115
UBR 128 -
UR 87 -
V 63 11, 20, 67, 82, 117
WA 126 5, 6, 7, 8
WF 16 10, 28, 43, 44, 45, 46, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 11
WG 44 43, 64, 76, 82, 104, 115, 126
WH 43 -
WLDF Exog 65, 68, 70
WLDG Exog 82, 104, 106
WLDS Exog 82, 110, 113
WM 45 43, 64, 76, 82, 104, 115, 126
WR 119 -
WS 46 43, 64, 78, 82, 110, 115, 126
X 60 11, 17, 26, 31, 33, 63
XX 61 67, 68, 82
Y 11 10, 12, 13, 14, 63, 83, 93, 94, 118
YD 115 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 27, 116
YNL 99 -
YS 98 10
YT 64 47, 48, 65, 90, 91, 99
Z 97 5, 6, 7, 8
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