Chapter 5 Tables: November 3, 1998
This is an update of the tables in Chapter 5 in the 1994 book. It presents the US model that is part of the MC2 model. The date of the US model presented here is November 3, 1998. The latest Chapter 5 tables are are presented in The US Model Workbook.
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
Equation 5
Equation 6
Equation 7
Equation 8
Equation 9
Equation 10
Equation 11
Equation 12
Equation 13
Equation 14
Equation 15
Equation 16
Equation 17
Equation 18
Equation 20
Equation 21
Equation 22
Equation 23
Equation 24
Equation 25
Equation 26
Equation 27
Equation 28
Equation 30
Table 5.1: Equation 1
                            Table 5.1
                           Equation  1
                    LHS Variable is  log(CS/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0563 1.59 Lags 12.80 3 0.0051 AG1 -0.2196 -3.00 RHO=4 3.57 4 0.4677 AG2 0.3005 1.36 T 23.74 1 0.0000 AG3 0.1781 0.91 Leads +1 17.63 1 0.0000 log(CS/POP){-1} 0.9206 27.77 Leads +4 45.86 4 0.0000 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.0931 2.86 Leads +8 40.32 2 0.0000 RSA -0.0011 -5.08 p4e 7.50 1 0.0062 p8e 4.07 1 0.0437 Other a 27.60 5 0.0000 Spread 1.95 4 0.7454 SE 0.00396 R2 1.000 DW 1.80 Chi Square (AGE) = 9.45 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0239) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
11.57* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1977.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), log(PCS/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.2: Equation 2
                            Table 5.2
                           Equation  2
                    LHS Variable is  log(CN/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2763 -3.42 Lags 26.48 4 0.0000 AG1 -0.1631 -1.65 RHO=4 37.38 4 0.0000 AG2 0.8111 2.82 T 0.51 1 0.4750 AG3 -0.4849 -2.68 Leads +1 14.94 1 0.0001 log(CN/POP){-1} 0.6298 14.48 Leads +4 15.99 4 0.0030 <>log(CN/POP){-1} 0.1795 2.94 Leads +8 16.68 2 0.0002 log(AA/POP){-1} 0.0497 4.93 p4e 3.50 1 0.0613 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2349 7.82 p8e 0.29 1 0.5920 RMA -0.0012 -2.41 Other a 12.23 4 0.0157 Spread 11.70 4 0.0198 SE 0.00564 R2 0.998 DW 1.86 Chi Square (AGE) = 45.72 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0000) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
27.19* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1973.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(WA/PH), log(PCN/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.3: Equation 3
                            Table 5.3
                           Equation  3
                    LHS Variable is  CD/POP                  

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.2952 -1.65 Lags 9.64 3 0.0219 AG1 0.2709 0.85 RHO=4 32.72 4 0.0000 AG2 1.3227 1.44 T 36.84 1 0.0000 AG3 -1.2406 -2.57 Leads +1 31.71 1 0.0000 (CD/POP){-1} 0.7737 13.83 Leads +4 42.19 4 0.0000 (KD/POP){-1} -0.0064 -1.14 Leads +8 35.88 2 0.0000 YD/(POP*PH) 0.0992 4.42 p4e*CDA 17.91 1 0.0000 RMA*CDA -0.0057 -3.26 p8e*CDA 17.52 1 0.0000 Other a 40.50 5 0.0000 Spread 15.02 4 0.0047 SE 0.01323 R2 0.995 DW 1.92 Chi Square (AGE) = 14.99 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0018) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
14.02* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1975.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 a(AA/POP)-1, WA/PH, PCD/PH, Z, YNL/(POP*PH)
Table 5.4: Equation 4
                            Table 5.4
                           Equation  4
                    LHS Variable is  IHH/POP                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.2507 1.19 Lags 2.24 4 0.6913 (IHH/POP){-1} 0.5116 8.80 RHO=4 3.50 2 0.1739 (KH/POP){-1} -0.0650 -4.59 T 9.13 1 0.0025 (AA/POP){-1} 0.0022 3.40 Leads +1 2.19 1 0.1386 YD/(POP*PH) 0.0605 2.61 Leads +4 6.85 4 0.1439 RMA{-1}*IHHA -0.0276 -4.90 Leads +8 2.46 2 0.2920 RHO1 0.6669 7.91 p4e{-1}*IHHA 3.57 1 0.0587 RHO2 0.3303 3.92 p8e{-1}*IHHA 4.34 1 0.0372 Other a 7.11 4 0.1303 Spread 2.06 4 0.7243 SE 0.00814 R2 0.958 DW 2.04 Chi Square (AGE) = 1.89 (df = 3, p-value = 0.5966) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.39 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1976.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 a(WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, 'Z-1, [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.5: Equation 5
                            Table 5.5
                           Equation  5
                    LHS Variable is  log(L1/POP1)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0022 -2.34 Lags 2.40 3 0.4935 log(L1/POP1){-1} 0.8412 21.15 RHO=4 33.10 4 0.0000 log(WA/PH) 0.0015 0.60 Leads +1 0.77 1 0.3812 Z 0.0108 1.22 Leads +4 8.65 4 0.0704 T -0.0001 -3.65 Leads +8 0.41 2 0.8161 logPH 1.27 1 0.2591 Other a 2.36 2 0.3070 SE 0.00207 R2 0.988 DW 2.12 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.01 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1970.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(YNL-1/(POP-1*PH-1))
Table 5.6: Equation 6
                            Table 5.6
                           Equation  6
                    LHS Variable is  log(L2/POP2)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0026 -1.19 Lags 11.78 3 0.0082 log(L2/POP2){-1} 0.9863 236.46 RHO=4 5.15 4 0.2727 log(WA/PH) 0.0188 2.83 T 1.44 1 0.2308 Z 0.0344 1.44 Leads +1 2.62 1 0.1058 Leads +4 14.84 4 0.0050 Leads +8 0.04 2 0.9793 logPH 5.68 1 0.0172 Other a 14.58 2 0.0007 SE 0.00588 R2 0.999 DW 2.15 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
11.85* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1973.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.7: Equation 7
                            Table 5.7
                           Equation  7
                    LHS Variable is  log(L3/POP3)            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0307 -2.45 Lags 7.97 3 0.0467 log(L3/POP3){-1} 0.9433 44.56 RHO=4 1.26 4 0.8680 log(WA/PH) 0.0223 2.42 Leads +1 3.21 1 0.0734 Z 0.0440 1.93 Leads +4 7.85 4 0.0974 T -0.0001 -2.88 Leads +8 6.00 2 0.0497 logPH 0.52 1 0.4701 Other a 4.21 1 0.0401 SE 0.00552 R2 0.983 DW 1.93 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.77 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.8: Equation 8
                            Table 5.8
                           Equation  8
                    LHS Variable is  log(LM/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.1927 -2.34 Lags 11.03 3 0.0115 log(LM/POP){-1} 0.9398 40.90 RHO=4 3.70 4 0.4487 log(WA/PH) 0.0469 1.32 T 2.18 1 0.1396 Z 1.1468 3.88 Leads +1 1.98 1 0.1590 Leads +4 6.20 4 0.1845 Leads +8 1.99 2 0.3693 logPH 0.66 1 0.4181 Other a 12.02 2 0.0025 SE 0.06770 R2 0.925 DW 1.96 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.06* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1978.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.9: Equation 9
                            Table 5.9
                           Equation  9
                    LHS Variable is  log[MH/(POP*PH)]        

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.1655 -2.66 logMH/POP*PH-1 1.14 1 0.2852 log[MH{-1}/(POP{-1}*PH)] 0.9284 30.84 Lags 6.81 3 0.0783 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2669 3.45 RHO=4 63.20 4 0.0000 RSA -0.0024 -1.71 T -0.0013 -3.57 SE 0.03096 R2 0.917 DW 2.19 Chi Square (AGE) = 14.06 (df = 3, p-value = 0.0028) Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
28.34* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.10: Equation 10
                            Table 5.10
                           Equation 10
                    LHS Variable is  logPF                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logPF{-1} 0.8876 54.43 Lags 20.34 4 0.0004 log[WF*(1+D5G)]-logLAM 0.0465 2.42 RHO=4 29.21 4 0.0000 cnst -0.0408 -3.10 Leads +1 16.58 1 0.0000 logPIM 0.0381 17.81 Leads +4 13.94 4 0.0075 log[((YS-Y)/YS)+.04] -0.0037 -3.54 Leads +8 13.51 2 0.0012 T 0.0003 9.84 UR 43.85 1 0.0000 (YS-Y)/YS 3.26 1 0.0708 SE 0.00356 R2 1.000 DW 1.41 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
29.78* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1972.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.11: Equation 11
                            Table 5.11
                           Equation 11
                    LHS Variable is  Y                       

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 25.5782 2.20 Lags 4.31 2 0.1162 Y{-1} 0.3594 7.70 RHO=4 2.15 1 0.1424 X 0.8607 16.98 T 1.40 1 0.2372 V{-1} -0.2834 -8.16 Leads +1 7.09 1 0.0077 RHO1 0.4204 5.36 Leads +8 4.87 2 0.0878 RHO2 0.2296 2.88 Spread 6.08 4 0.1931 RHO3 0.2776 3.65 SE 3.73224 R2 1.000 DW 2.01 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
10.09* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.12: Equation 12
                            Table 5.12
                           Equation 12
                    LHS Variable is  <>IKF                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
(KK-KKMIN){-1} -0.0054 -3.10 Lags 10.24 4 0.0365 IKF{-1}-DELK*KK{-1} -0.0122 -1.31 RHO=4 8.39 4 0.0785 <>Y 0.0980 3.69 T 0.55 1 0.4605 <>Y{-1} 0.0618 3.09 Leads +1 0.12 1 0.7282 <>Y{-2} 0.0299 1.51 Leads +4 3.05 4 0.5491 <>Y{-3} 0.0372 1.89 Leads +8 0.51 2 0.7768 <>Y{-4} 0.0159 0.81 cnst 1.16 1 0.2811 RB'{-3}*IKFA -0.0002 -0.42 Spread 3.80 4 0.4341 SE 1.74805 R2 0.477 DW 1.90 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
1.26 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1978.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.13: Equation 13
                            Table 5.13
                           Equation 13
                    LHS Variable is  <>logJF                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.5343 -3.93 Lags 27.64 5 0.0000 DD772 -0.1082 -0.41 RHO=4 13.01 4 0.0112 log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0859 -3.91 Leads +1 2.19 1 0.1386 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0198 -0.46 Leads +4 15.10 4 0.0045 <>logJF{-1} 0.4140 7.72 Leads +8 2.81 2 0.2458 DD772*<>logJF{-1} -0.0723 -0.66 T 0.0001 4.05 DD772*T -0.0001 -2.53 <>logY 0.3321 9.32 SE 0.00318 R2 0.746 DW 2.04
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.14: Equation 14
                            Table 5.14
                           Equation 14
                    LHS Variable is  <>logHF                 

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.5818 4.23 Lags 4.09 4 0.3939 DD772 0.3896 2.78 RHO=4 3.26 3 0.3538 logHF{-1} -0.1811 -5.85 Leads +1 0.28 1 0.5963 log(JF/JHMIN){-1} -0.0873 -4.54 Leads +4 3.40 4 0.4933 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1} 0.0660 2.88 Leads +8 0.34 2 0.8432 T -0.0001 -4.56 DD772*T 0.0001 3.80 <>logY 0.1631 6.07 RHO1 -0.1639 -1.96 SE 0.00255 R2 0.444 DW 2.01
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.15: Equation 15
                            Table 5.15
                           Equation 15
                    LHS Variable is  logHO                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 3.9512 42.90 Lags 1.34 2 0.5115 HFF 0.0198 8.50 RHO=4 3.50 3 0.3205 HFF{-1} 0.0115 4.93 T 5.57 1 0.0183 RHO1 0.9595 39.08 SE 0.04559 R2 0.952 DW 1.82 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.79 1970.1 1979.4 2.56 1975.4
Estimation period is 1956.1-1998.3
Table 5.16: Equation 16
                            Table 5.16
                           Equation 16
                    LHS Variable is  logWF-logLAM            

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
logWF{-1}-logLAM{-1} 0.8723 28.66 RealWageRestr b 0.20 1 0.6577 logPF 0.7337 12.28 Lags 3.40 1 0.0653 cnst -0.0847 -5.30 RHO=4 5.38 4 0.2507 T 0.0001 2.26 UR 0.04 1 0.8385 logPF{-1}a -0.6244 - SE 0.00683 R2 0.838 DW 1.70 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.34* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1970.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 aCoefficient constrained. See the discussion in the text. bEquation estimated with no restrictions on the coefficients.
Table 5.17: Equation 17
                            Table 5.17
                           Equation 17
                    LHS Variable is  log(MF/PF)              

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0695 1.03 log(MF/PF){-1} 1.95 1 0.1631 log(MF{-1}/PF) 0.9667 52.96 Lags 5.96 3 0.1134 log(X-FA) 0.0202 2.24 RHO=4 20.48 4 0.0004 RS*(1-D2G-D2S) -0.0011 -0.56 T 0.76 1 0.3831 SE 0.02465 R2 0.982 DW 2.37 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
6.31 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.18: Equation 18
                            Table 5.18
                           Equation 18
                    LHS Variable is  log(DF/DF{-1})          

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF-1 0.0277 11.68 Restriction 4.16 1 0.0415 Lags 2.99 2 0.2239 RHO=4 9.36 4 0.0527 T 5.12 1 0.0237 cnst 0.00 1 0.9830 SE 0.02332 R2 0.062 DW 1.76 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
4.25* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1976.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.20: Equation 20
                            Table 5.20
                           Equation 20
                    LHS Variable is  IVA                     

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.9512 -1.44 Lags 4.85 2 0.0885 (PX-PX{-1})*V{-1} -0.3138 -3.19 RHO=4 15.34 3 0.0015 RHO1 0.6751 11.54 T 0.11 1 0.7445 SE 2.26866 R2 0.598 DW 2.12 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.51 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1974.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.21: Equation 21
                            Table 5.21
                           Equation 21
                    LHS Variable is  log(CCF/CCF{-1})        

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF{-1}] 0.0679 15.34 Restriction 2.58 1 0.1086 D811824 0.0183 3.12 Lags 30.66 2 0.0000 D831834 0.0175 2.17 RHO=4 24.46 4 0.0001 T 2.79 1 0.0949 cnst 1.38 1 0.2405 SE 0.01613 R2 0.242 DW 2.61
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.22: Equation 22
                            Table 5.22
                           Equation 22
                    LHS Variable is  BO/BR                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.0027 0.81 Lags 6.20 3 0.1025 (BO/BR){-1} 0.3232 4.57 RHO=4 24.88 4 0.0001 RS 0.0051 1.76 T 2.38 1 0.1225 RD -0.0029 -1.04 SE 0.01974 R2 0.308 DW 2.07 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.04* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1975.2
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.23: Equation 23
                            Table 5.23
                           Equation 23
                    LHS Variable is  RB-RS{-2}               

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.2363 4.86 Restriction 0.98 1 0.3217 RB{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8856 41.92 Lags 1.61 2 0.4462 RS-RS{-2} 0.2983 8.50 RHO=4 8.92 3 0.0304 RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.2254 -5.15 T 2.20 1 0.1379 RHO1 0.2464 3.21 Leads +1 0.00 1 0.9709 Leads +4 4.36 4 0.3597 p4e 2.87 1 0.0901 p8e 3.01 1 0.0826 SE 0.26072 R2 0.957 DW 2.03 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.98 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.24: Equation 24
                            Table 5.24
                           Equation 24
                    LHS Variable is  RM-RS{-2}               

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.4392 5.59 Restriction 1.68 1 0.1955 RM{-1}-RS{-2} 0.8534 34.24 Lags 1.47 2 0.4785 RS-RS{-2} 0.2543 5.32 RHO=4 2.06 4 0.7255 RS{-1}-RS{-2} -0.0153 -0.23 T 0.86 1 0.3550 Leads +1 1.43 1 0.2318 Leads +4 12.81 4 0.0122 Leads +8 5.78 2 0.0556 p4e 1.63 1 0.2023 p8e 2.46 1 0.1172 SE 0.35832 R2 0.892 DW 1.93 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
2.66 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.25: Equation 25
                            Table 5.25
                           Equation 25
                    LHS Variable is  CG                      

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 46.2946 5.00 Lags 32.81 3 0.0000 <>RB -124.3692 -3.26 RHO=4 45.46 4 0.0000 <>(CF-TFG-TFS) 1.5832 0.82 T 25.30 1 0.0000 Leads +1 5.60 2 0.0608 Leads +4 8.56 8 0.3806 Leads +8 5.14 4 0.2736 <>RS 2.86 1 0.0908 SE 123.38279 R2 0.121 DW 1.54 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
8.31* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1979.4
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.26: Equation 26
                            Table 5.26
                           Equation 26
                    LHS Variable is  log[CUR/(POP*PF)]       

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.0537 -8.42 logCUR/POP*PF-1 7.83 1 0.0052 logCUR{-1}/(POP{-1}*PF) 0.9572 126.11 Lags 6.49 3 0.0900 log[(X-FA)/POP] 0.0503 8.60 RHO=4 10.13 3 0.0175 RSA -0.0011 -2.61 T 0.04 1 0.8397 RHO1 -0.2786 -3.83 SE 0.00966 R2 0.997 DW 1.97 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
7.72* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1977.3
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.27: Equation 27
                            Table 5.27
                           Equation 27
                    LHS Variable is  log(IM/POP)             

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -0.4415 -3.59 Lags 12.94 4 0.0116 log(IM/POP){-1} 0.8955 30.73 RHO=4 31.94 4 0.0000 log[YD/(POP*PH)] 0.2895 3.77 T 17.91 1 0.0000 log(PF/PIM) 0.0525 2.30 Leads +1 0.05 1 0.8229 RMA{-1} -0.0034 -1.75 Leads +4 13.13 4 0.0107 D691 -0.1208 -3.91 Leads +8 1.05 2 0.5916 D692 0.1453 4.66 p4e 32.75 1 0.0000 D714 -0.0943 -3.06 p8e 15.36 1 0.0001 D721 0.1063 3.44 logPF 22.99 1 0.0000 log[(X-FA)/POP] 1.48 1 0.2238 Other a 22.31 4 0.0002 Spread 37.95 4 0.0000 SE 0.03051 R2 0.997 DW 1.76
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3 alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.28: Equation 28
                            Table 5.28
                           Equation 28
                    LHS Variable is  logUB                   

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst 0.3910 1.10 Lags 9.64 3 0.0219 logUB{-1} 0.2628 3.89 RHO=4 4.77 3 0.1892 logU 1.1500 9.87 T 4.09 1 0.0433 logWF 0.3660 5.81 RHO1 0.8099 15.16 SE 0.06270 R2 0.996 DW 2.10 Stability Test: AP T1 T2 lambda Break
11.74* 1970.1 1979.4 2.43 1975.1
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3
Table 5.30: Equation 30
                            Table 5.30
                           Equation 30
                    LHS Variable is  RS                      

Equation Chi Square Tests RHS Variable Est. t-stat. Test ChiSq df p-val
cnst -15.5616 -6.62 Lags 7.98 6 0.2396 RS{-1} 0.8894 49.38 RHO=4 2.32 4 0.6777 100*[(PD/PD{-1})^4-1] 0.0757 4.15 T 0.53 1 0.4661 JJS 15.7983 6.68 Leads +1 3.11 3 0.3747 PCGDPR 0.0756 5.27 Leads +4 12.13 12 0.4353 PCM1{-1} 0.0194 3.20 Leads +8 3.33 6 0.7660 D794823*PCM1{-1} 0.2266 9.79 p4e 1.06 1 0.3026 <>RS{-1} 0.2138 3.81 p8e 1.87 1 0.1712 <>RS{-2} -0.3040 -5.73 SE 0.48642 R2 0.970 DW 1.92
Estimation period is 1954.1-1998.3