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"Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, April 1998, 90-99.
pfd file (1,030 KB).


A multicountry econometric model and stochastic simulation are used to estimate the stabilization costs of the European Monetary Union (EMU). A measure of the variability of output and other variables is computed for the current regime and for the EMU regime. The results show that Germany is hurt the most in terms of increased output variability in moving from the current regime to the EMU regime.


It is interesting that Germany is hurt and France is helped according to the stability estimates. I hope this paper may stimulate others to perform similar experiments.