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"Information Content of DSGE Forecasts: Preliminary Results," July 2016.
pdf file.


This paper is a preliminary examination of the question whether information is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged values. Three sets of forecasts have been examined so far. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP, but not of the GDP deflator. The hope is that this paper will stimulate more sets of forecasts to analyze. On a personal note, I am concerned, as discussed in Section 5, that the results for real GDP may be too good to be true. Further results should help address this concern, especially forecasts of the components of GDP.