Appendix B: Tables for the ROW Model (MC3 Version):
April 27, 2001
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This is an update of Appendix B in the
1994 book. It presents the ROW
model that is part of the MC3 model. The date of the ROW model
presented here is April 27, 2001.
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Table B.1: The Countries and Variables in the MC Model
Table B.2: The Variables for a Given Country in Alphabetical Order
Table B.3: The Equations for a Given Country
Table B.4: Equations the Pertain to the Trade and Price Links Among
Countries
Table B.5: Links Between the US and ROW Models
Table B.6: Construction of the Balance of Payments Data: Data for S
and TT |
Table B.1: The Countries
and Variables in the MC Model |
Table B.1
The Countries and Variables in the MC Model
Quarterly Countries Local Currency
1. US United States U.S. Dollar (mil.)
2. CA Canada Can. Dollar (mil.)
3. JA Japan Yen (bil.)
4. AU Austria Schilling (bil.)
5. FR France Fr. Franc (bil.)
6. GE Germany D. Mark (bil.)
7. IT Italy Lire (bil.)
8. NE Netherlands Guilder (bil.)
9. ST Switzerland Swiss Franc (bil.)
10. UK United Kingdom Pound Sterling (mil.)
11. FI Finland Markka (mil.)
12. AS Australia Aust. Dollar (mil.)
13. SO South Africa Rand (mil.)
14. KO Rep. of Korea Won (bil.)
Annual Countries
15. BE Belgium Bel. Franc (bil.)
16. DE Denmark Den. Kroner (bil.)
17. NO Norway Nor. Kroner (bil.)
18. SW Sweden Swe. Kroner (bil.)
19. GR Greece Drachmae (bil.)
20. IR Ireland Irish Pound (mil.)
21. PO Portugal Escudos (bil.)
22. SP Spain Pesetas (bil.)
23. NZ New Zealand N.Z. Dollar (mil.)
24. SA Saudi Arabia Riyals (bil.)
25. VE Venezuela Bolivares (bil.)
26. CO Colombia Col. Pesos (bil.)
27. JO Jordan Jor. Dinars (mil.)
28. SY Syria Syr. Pound (mil.)
29. ID India Ind. Rupee (bil.)
30. MA Malaysia Ringgit (mil.)
31. PA Pakistan Pak. Rupee (bil.)
32. PH Philippines Phil. Peso (bil.)
33. TH Thailand Baht (bil.)
34. CH China Yuan (bil.)
35. AR Argentina Arg. Peso (mil.)
36. BR Brazil Reais (mil.)
37. CE Chile Chi. Peso (bil.)
38. ME Mexico New Peso (mil.)
39. PE Peru Nuevos Soles (mil.)
Trade Share Equations Only
40. TU Turkey
41. PD Poland
42. RU Russia
43. UE Ukraine
44. EG Egypt
45. IS Israel
46. KE Kenya
47. BA Bangladesh
48. HK Hong Kong
49. SI Singapore
50. VI Vietnam
51. NI Nigeria
52. AL Algeria
53. IA Indonesia
54. IN Iran
55. IQ Iraq
56. KU Kuwait
57. LI Libya
58. UA United Arab Emirates
59. AO All Other
Note: The countries that make up the EMU, denoted EU in the model, are
AU, FR, GE, IT, NE, FI, BE, IR, PO, SP, GR. (GR begins in 2001.)
(Luxembourg, which is also part of the EMU, is not in the model.)
A Brief Listing of the Variables per Country
Variables Determined by Stochastic Equations:
1. IM Total Imports (NIPA), constant lc
2. C Consumption, constant lc
3. I Fixed Investment, constant lc
4. Y Real GDP, constant lc
5. PY GDP Deflator, base year = 1.0
6. M1 Money Supply, lc
7. RS Three Month Interest Rate, percentage points
8. RB Long Term Interest Rate, percentage points
9. E or H Exchange Rate: E is lc per $, H is lc per DM
10. F Three Month Forward Rate, lc per $
11. PX Export Price Index, 1995 = 1.0
12. W Nominal Wage Rate, base year = 1.0
13. J Employment, thousands
14. L1 Labor Force---men, thousands
15. L2 Labor Force---women, thousands
Variables Determined by Identities:
I-1 M Merchandise Imports, 95 lc
I-2. EX Total Exports (NIPA), constant lc
I-3. X Final Sales, constant lc
I-4. V1 Inventory Investment, constant lc
I-5. V Inventory Stock, constant lc
I-6. S Current Account Balance, lc
I-7. A Net Stock of Foreign Security and Reserve Holdings, lc
I-8. M95$A Merchandise Imports from the Trade Share Calculations, 95 $
I-9. EE Exchange Rate, end of period, lc per $
I-12. UR Unemployment Rate
I-13. JMIN Minimum Required Employment, thousands
I-14. JJ Employment Population Ratio
I-15. JJS Peak to Peak Interpolation of JJ
I-16. Z Labor Constraint Variable
I-17. YS Potential Y
I-18. ZZ Demand Pressure Variable
I-19. PM Import Price Index, 1995 = 1.0
I-20. E or H Exchange Rate: E is lc per $, H is lc per DM
I-21. NW National Wealth, constant lc
I-22. PX$ Export Price Index, $/95$
Variables Determined by the Trade Share Calculations:
L-1 aij Trade Share Coefficients
L-2 XX95$ij Merchandise Exports from i to j, 95$
L-3. X95$ Total Merchandise Exports, 95$
L-4. PMP Import Price Index, 1995 = 1.0
L-5. PW$ World Price Index, $/95$
Exogenous Variables:
AF Level of the Armed Forces, thousands
EXDS Export Discrepancy, constant lc
E95 E in 1995, 95 lc per 95 $
G Government Expenditures, constant lc
IMDS Import Discrepancy, constant lc
JJP Peak to Peak Interpolation of JJ
LAM Peak to Peak Interpolation of Y/J
MS Non Merchandise Imports, 95 lc
M95$B Merchandise Imports from Countries other than
the 58 in the Trade Share Matrix, 95 $
PM95 PM in Base Year divided by PM in 1995
POP Population, millions
POP1 Population of men, thousands
POP2 Population of women, thousands
PSI1 Ratio of (EE + EE-1)/2 to E
PSI2 Ratio of PM to PMP
PX95 PX in Base Year divided by PX in 1995
STAT NIPA Statistical Discrepancy
T Time Trend
TT Total Net Transfers, lc
XS Non Merchandise Exports, 95 lc
Notation:
lc local currency
95 lc 1995 local currency
constant lc local currency in the NIPA base year
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Table B.2: The Variables
for a Given Country in Alphabetical Order |
Table B.2
The Variables for a Given Country in Alphabetical Order
Variable Eq.No. Description
aij L-1 Share of i's merchandise exports to j out of total merchandise
imports of j. [See below.]
A I-7 Net stock of foreign security and reserve holdings, end of
quarter, in lc. [A-1 + S. Base value of zero used for the
quarter prior to the beginning of the data.]
AF exog Level of the armed forces in thousands. [OECD data.]
C 2 Personal consumption in constant lc. [OECD data or IFS96F/CPI.]
E 9 Exchange rate, average for the period, lc per $ . [IFSRF.]
EE I-9 Exchange rate, end of period, lc per $ . [IFSAE.]
EX I-2 Total exports (NIPA) in constant lc. [OECD data or (IFS90C
or IFS90N)/ PX.]
EXDS exog Discrepancy between NIPA export data and other export data
in constant lc. [ EX - PX95(E95*X95$ + XS).]
E95 exog E in 1995, 95 lc per 95 $. [IFSRF in 1995.]
F 10 Three month forward exchnage rate, lc per $. [IFSB.]
G exog Government purchases of goods and services in constant lc.
[OECD data or (IFS91F or IFS91FF)/PY.] (Denoted GZ for
countries CO and TH.)
H 9 Exchange rate, average for the period, lc per DM. [E/EGE]
I 3 Gross fixed investment in constant lc. [OECD data or IFS93/PY.]
IM I-1 Total imports (NIPA) in constant lc. [OECD data or IFS98C/PM.]
IMDS exog Discrepancy between NIPA import data and other import data
in constant lc. [IM - PM95(M + MS).]
J 13 Total employment in thousands. [OECD data or IFS67 or
IFS67E or IFS67EY or IFS67EYC.]
JJ I-14 Employment population ratio. [J/POP.]
JJP exog Peak to peak interpolation of JJ. [See Section 3.3.3.]
JJS I-15 Ratio of JJ to JJP. [JJ/JJP.]
JMIN I-13 Minimum amount of employment needed to produce Y in thousands.
[Y/LAM.]
LAM exog Peak to peak interpolation of Y/J . [See Section 3.3.3.]
L1 14 Labor force of men in thousands. [OECD data.]
L2 15 Labor force of women in thousands. [OECD data.]
M 1 Total merchandise imports (fob) in 95 lc. [IFS71V/PM.]
MS exog Other goods, services, and income (debit) in 95 lc, BOP data.
[(IFS77AED*E)/PM.]
M95$A I-8 Merchandise imports (fob) from the trade share matrix in 95 $ .
[See below.]
M95$B exog Difference between total merchandise imports and merchandise
imports from the trade share matrix in 95 $ (i.e., imports
from countries other than the 44 in the trade share matrix).
[M/E95 - M95$A.]
M1 6 Money supply in lc. [IFS34 or IFS34A.N+IFS34B.N or IFS35L.B
or IFS39MAC or IFS59MA or IFS59MC.]
NW I-21 National Wealth in constant lc.
[NW-1 + I + V1 + EX - IM. Base value of zero used
for the quarter prior to the beginning of the data.]
PM I-19 Import price index, 1995 = 1.0. [IFS75/100.]
PMP L-4 Import price index from DOT data, 1995 = 1.0. [See below.]
PM95 exog PM in the NIPA base year divided by PM in 1995.
POP exog Population in millions. [IFS99Z.]
POP1 exog Population of labor-force-age men in thousands. [OECD data.]
POP2 exog Population of labor-force-age women in thousands. [OECD data.]
PSI1 exog [(EE + EE-1)/2]/E.]
PSI2 exog [PM/PMP.]
PW$ L-5 World price index, $/95$. [See below.]
PX 11 Export price index, 1995 = 1.0. [IFS74/100. If no IFS74 data
for t, then PXt = PX$t*(Et/E95t, where
PX$t is defined next.]
PX$ I-22 Export price index, $/95$, 1995 = 1.0. [(E95*PX)/E. If no
IFS74 data at all, then PX$t = PXUSt for all t.
If IFS74 data only from t through t+h, then for i>0,
PX$t-i = PX$t*(PXUSt-i/PXUSt
and PX$t+h+i = PX$t+h*(PXUSt+k+i/PXUSt.
PX95 exog PX in the NIPA base year divided by PX in 1995.
PY 5 GDP or GNP deflator, equals 1.0 in the NIPA base year.
[OECD data or (IFS99B/IFS99B.P.]
RB 8 Long term interest rate, percentage points. [IFS61.]
RS 7 Three month interest rate, percentage points. [IFS60 or
IFS60B or IFS60C or IFS60L or IFS60P.]
S I-6 Total net goods, services, and transfers in lc. Current
account balance. [See Table B.7.] (Denoted SZ for
countries CO and TH.)
STAT exog Statistical discrepancy in constant lc. [Y-C-I-G-EX+IM-V1.]
T exog Time trend. [For quarterly data, 1 in 1952.1, 2 in 1952.2, etc.;
for annual data, 1 in 1952, 2 in 1953, etc.]
TT exog Total net transfers in lc. [See Table B.7.]
UR I-12 Unemployment rate. [(L1 + L2 - J)/(L1 + L2 - AF).]
V I-5 Stock of inventories, end of period, in constant lc. [V-1 + V1.
Base value of zero was used for the period (quarter or year)
prior to the beginning of the data.]
V1 I-4 Inventory investment in constant lc. [OECD data or IFS93I/PY.]
W 12 Nominal wage rate. [IFS65..C or IFS65A or IFS65EY or IFS65UMC.]
X I-3 Final sales in constant lc. [Y - V1.] (Denoted XZ for
country PE.)
XS exog Other goods, services, and income (credit) in 95 lc. BOP data.
[(IFS77ADD*E)/PX.]
X95$ L-3 Merchandise exports from the trade share matrix in 95 $.
[See below.]
XX95$ijL-2 Merchandise exports from i to j in 95$.
[See below.]
Y 4 Real GDP or GNP in constant lc. [OECD data or IFS99B.P
or IFS99B.R.]
YS I-17 Potential value of Y. [LAM*JJP*POP.]
Z I-16 Labor constraint variable. [min(0, 1 - JJP/JJ).]
ZZ I-18 Demand pressure variable. [(YS-Y)/YS .]
Construction of variables related to the trade share matrix:
The raw data are:
XX$ij Merchandise exports from i to j in $, i,j = 1,...,58
[DOT data. 0 value used if no data.]
X$i Total merchandise exports (fob) in $. i = 1,...,39
[IFS70/E or IFS70D.]
The constructed variables are:
XX$i59 = X$i - Sum58j=1XX$ij, i = 1,...,39
XX95$ij = XX$ij/PX$i, i = 1,...,39, j = 1,...,59
and i = 40,...,58, j = 1,...,58
M95$Ai = Sum58j=1XX95$ji, i = 1,...,58; M95$A59 = Sum39j=1XX95$j59
aij = XX95$ij/M95$Aj, i = 1,...,39, j = 1,...,59 and i= 40,...,58,j= 1,...,58
X95$i = Sum59j=1XX95$ij, i = 1,...,39; X95$i = Sum58j=1XX95$ij, i=40,...,58
PMPi = (Ei/E95i)Sum58j=1ajiPX$j, i = 1,...,39
PW$i = (Sum58j=1PX$jX95$j)/(Sum58j=1X95$j), i = 1,...,39
An element in this summation is skipped if j = i. This
summation also excludes the oil exporting countries, which are
SA, VE, NI, AL, IA, IN, IQ, KU, LI, UA.
lc = local currency.
NIPA = national income and product accounts.
IFSxxxxx = variable number xxxxx from the IFS data.
Note: Variables available for trade share only countries are M95$A, PX$, X95$.
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Table B.3 The Equations for a Given Country
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Table B.3
The Equations for a Given Country
Stochastic Equations
LHS Var. Explanatory Variables
1. log(IM/POP)
cnst, log(IM/POP)-1, log(PY/PM), log[(C+I+G)/POP]
2. log(C/POP)
cnst, log(C/POP)-1, RS or RB, log(Y/POP), [A/(PY*YS)]-1
3. logI
cnst, logI-1, logY, RS or RB
4. Y
Y-1, X, V-1
5. logPY
cnst, logPY-1, logW, logPM, DP, T
6. log[M1/(POP*PY)]
cnst, log[M1/(POP*PY)]-1 or log[M1-1/(POP-1*PY)], RS, log(Y/POP)
7. RS
cnst, RS-1, 100[(PY/PY-1 )4 - 1], ZZ or JJS, [S/(PY*YS)]-1,
RSGE, RSUS
8. RB - RS-2
cnst, RB-1 - RS-2, RS - RS-2, RS-1 - RS-2
9. <>logE
cnst, logp - logE-1, logr
9. <>logH
cnst, logp' - logH-1, logr'
10. logF
logEE, logr
11. log[PX/(PW$*(E/E95))]
logPY - log(PW$*(E/E95))
12. logW
cnst, logW-1, logPY, DW, T, logPY-1,
13. <>logJ
cnst, T, log(J/JMIN)-1, <>logY, <>logY-1
14. log(L1/POP1)
cnst, T, log(L1/POP1)-1, log(W/PY), Z
15. log(L2/POP2)
cnst, T, log(L2/POP2)-1, log(W/PY), Z
Notes:
i) The variables in equation 9 are:
p = PY/PYUS, p' = PY/PYGE,
r = [(1 + RS/100)/(1 + RSUS/100)].25, r' = [(1 + RS/100)/(1 + RSGE/100)].25
ii) In equation 10 r is the same variable as in equation 9.
iii) In equations 5 and 12 DP and DW are demand pressure variables.
See the discussion in Chapter 6 in Macroeconometric Modeling.
The following gives for each country the type of gap variable used
for DP and the functional form:
CA (gap1, linear), JA (gap2, nonlinear), AU (gap2, linear),
FR (gap2, linear), GE (gap1, linear), IT (gap2, linear),
ST (gap2, linear), UK (UKUR, linear), FI (gap2, linear),
AS (gap2, linear), BE (gap2, linear), DE (gap2, linear),
NO (gap2, linear), SW (gap2, linear), GR (gap1, linear),
IR (gap2, linear), PO (gap2, linear), SP (gap1, linear),
NZ (gap2, linear), CO (gap1, linear), MA (gap2, linear),
PA (gap1, linear), PH (gap1, linear), TH (gap2, linear),
CH (gap2, linear), CE (gap1, linear), ME (gap2, linear).
The following gives for each country the type of gap variable used
for DW and the functional form:
JA (gap2, linear), FR (gap1, linear), IT (ITUR, linear),
UK (gap2, linear), AS (gap2, linear), KO (gap2, linear),
SW (gap1, linear), GR (gap2, linear), SP (gap2, linear).
Identities
I-1. M = (IM - IMDS)/PM95 - MS
I-2. EX = PX95(E95*X95$ + XS) + EXDS
I-3. X = C + I + G + EX - IM + STAT
I-4. V1 = Y - X
I-5. V = V-1 + V1
I-6. S = PX(E95*X95$ + XS) - PM(M + MS) + TT
I-7. A = A-1 + S
I-8. M95$A = M/E95 - M95$B
I-9. EE = 2*PSI1*E - EE-1
I-12. UR = (L1 + L2 - J)/(L1 + L2 - AF)
I-13. JMIN = Y/LAM
I-14. JJ = J/POP
I-15. JJS = JJ/JJP
I-16. Z = min(0, 1 - JJP/JJ)
I-17. YS = LAM*JJP*POP
I-18. ZZ = (YS - Y)/YS
I-19. PM = PSI2*PMP
I-20. E = H*EGE or H = E/EGE
I-21. NW = NW-1 + I + V1 + EX - IM
I-22. PX$ = (E95/E)*PX
Note: PX$ and M95$A are exogenous for trade share only countries
Variables Explained When the Countries are Linked Together (Table B.4)
L-1. aij
L-2 XX95$ij
L-3. X95$
L-4. PMP
L-5. PW$
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Table B.4 Equations that Pertain to the Trade and Price
Links Among Countries
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Table B.4
Equations that Pertain to the Trade and Price Links Among Countries
L-1. aij = computed from trade share equations
L-2. XX95$ij= aijM95$Aj, i = 1,...,39, j = 1,...,59 and i = 40,...,58, j = 1,...,58
L-3. X95$i = Sum59j=1XX95$ij, i = 1,...,39
X95$i = Sum58j=1XX95$ij, i = 40,...,58
L-4. PMPi = (Ei/E95i)Sum58j=1ajiPX$j, i = 1,...,39
L-5. PW$i = (Sum58j=1PX$jX95$j)/(Sum58j=1X95$j), i = 1,...,39
An element in this summation is skipped if j = i. This
summation also excludes the oil exporting countries, which are
SA, VE, NI, AL, IA, IN, IQ, KU, LI, UA.
Linking of the Annual and Quarterly Data
Quarterly data exist for all the trade share calculations, and all
these calculations are quarterly. Feeding into these calculations from
the annual models are predicted annual values of PX$i, M95$Ai,
and Ei. For each of these three variables the predicted value
for a given quarter was taken to be the predicted annual value multiplied
by the ratio of the actual quarterly value to the actual annual value.
This means in effect that the distribution of an annual value into its
quarterly values is taken to be exogenous.
Once the quarterly values have been computed from the trade share
calculations, the annual values of X95$i that are needed for the
annual models are taken to be the sums of the quarterly values. Similarly,
the annual values of PMPi and PW$i are taken to be
the averages of the quarterly values.
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Table B.5 Links Between
the US and ROW Models |
Table B.5
Links Between the US and ROW Models
The data on the variables for the United States that are needed when the
US model is imbedded in the MC model were collected as described in Table B.2.
These variables are (with the US subscript dropped): EXDS, IMDS, M, MS, M95$A,
M95$B, PM, PMP, PSI2, PW$, PX (= PX$), S, TT, XS, and X95$. The PXUS variable
here is not the same as the PX variable for the United States in Appendix A.
The variable here is denoted USPX in the MC3 model. The PX variable for
the United States is the price index of total sales of the firm sector.
Variable Determination
X95$US Determined in Table B.4
PMPUS Determined in Table B.4
PW$US Determined in Table B.4
PXUS Determined by an equation that is equivalent
to equation 11 for the other countries. See the discussion
in Section 1.4 of The MC3 Model Workbook.
PEX = DEL3*PXUS. In the US model by itself, PEX
is determined as PSI1*PX, which is equation 32 in Table A.2.
This equation is dropped when the US model is linked to
the ROW model. DEL3 is constructed from the data as
PEX/PXUS and is taken to be exogenous.
PMUS = PSI2US*PMPUS. This is the same as equation I-19
for the other countries.
PIM = DEL4*PMUS. PIM is an exogenous variable in the
US model by itself. DEL4 is constructed from the data as
PIM/PMUS and is taken to be exogenous.
EX = (X95$US + XSUS + EXDSUS)/1000.
This is the same as equation I-2 for the other countries.
EX is an exogenous variable in the US model by itself. EXDSUS
is constructed from the data as 1000*EX-X95$US - XSUS
and is taken to be exogenous.
MUS = 1000*IM - MSUS - IMDSUS. This is the
same as equation I-1 for the other countries. IMDSUS is
constructed from the data as 1000*IM - MUS - MSUS
and is taken to be exogenous.
M95$AUS = MUS - M95$BUS. This is the same as
equation I-8 for the other countries.
SUS = PXUS(X95$US + XSUS) - PMUS(MUS + MSUS) + TTUS.
This is the same as equation I-6 for the other countries.
Note:
The new exogenous variables for the US model when it is linked to the
ROW model are DEL3, DEL4, EXDSUS, IMDSUS, M95$BUS, MSUS, PSI2US, TTUS, and XSUS.
EX and PIM are exogenous in the US model by itself, but endogenous when the US model
is linked to the ROW model.
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Table B.6 Construction of the Balance of Payments Data:
Data for S and TT
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Table B.6
Construction of the Balance of Payments Data: Data for S and TT
The relevant raw data variables are:
M$' Goods imports (fob) in $, BOP data. [IFS78ABD.]
M$ Goods imports (fob) in $. [IFS71V/E.]
X$' Goods exports (fob) in $, BOP data. [IFS78AAD.]
X$ Goods exports (fob) in $. [IFS70/E.]
MS$ Services and income (debit) in $, BOP data. [IFS78AED + IFS78AHD.]
XS$ Services and income (credit) in $, BOP data. [IFS78ADD + IFS78AGD.]
XT$ Current transfers, n.i.e., (credit) in $ BOP data. [IFS78AJD.]
MT$ Current transfers, n.i.e., (debit) in $ BOP data. [IFS78AKD.]
- When quarterly data on all the above variables were available,
then S$ and TT$ were constructed as:
(i) S$ = X$' + XS$ - M$' - MS$ + XT$ - MT$
(ii) TT$ = S$ - X$ - XS$ + M$ + MS$
where S$ is total net goods, services, and transfers in $ (balance of
payments on current account) and TT$ is total net transfers in $.
- When only annual data on M$' were available and quarterly
data were needed, interpolated quarterly data were constructed using
M$. Similarly for MS$.
When only annual data on X$' were available and quarterly data
were needed, interpolated quarterly data were constructed using X$.
Similarly for XS$, XT$, and MT$.
When no data on M$' were available, then M$' was taken to be
q.M$, where q is the last observed value of M$'/M$.
Similarly for MS$ (where q is the last observed annual value of MS$/M$.)
When no data on X$' were available, then X$' was taken to be q.X$,
where q is the last observed value of X$'/X$. Similarly for XS$ (where
q is the last observed annual value of XS$/X$), for XT$ (where q is the
last observed annual value of XT$/X$), and for MT$ (where q is the last
observed annual value of MT$/X$).
Equations i and ii were then used to construct quarterly data for S$ and TT$.
-
After data on S$ and TT$ were constructed, data on S and TT were
constructed as:
(iii) S = E*S$
(iv) TT = E*TT$
-
Note from MS and XS in Table B.2 and from MS$ and XS$ above that
(v) MS$ = (PM*MS)/E
(vi) XS$ = (PX*XS)/E
Note also from Table B.2 that
(vii) M$ = (PM*M)/E
(viii) X$ = (E95*PX*X95$)/E
Therefore, from equations ii-vii, the equation for S can be written
S = PX(E95*X95$ + XS) - PM(M + MS) + TT
which is equation I-6 in Table B.3.
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