Downloading the MCA Model
The documentation for the MCA model is in Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works. You should read at least Chapter 2 of this book before downloading and working with the model.

Data from the MCA model can be downloaded online by going to the output phase when working with the MCA model and downloading from there.

If you want to download the MCA model for use on your own machine, this can be done by downloading the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the MCA model files that go with the FP program. You should have a computer with at least 128 MB of memory. One of the files that needs to be downloaded is about 13 MB in size, and this will take a while to download.

The following are the downloadable files:

FP.ZIP    746 KB   Contains FP.EXE, the FP compiled program.

MC.ZIP    272 KB    Contains the following:

  • SP6.INP    Main input dataset
  • SP6US.DAT    Read by SP6.INP
  • EST.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR1.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR2.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • XX95.INP    Read by SP6.IN6
  • FORBIG.VAR    Read by SP6.INP

SP6BIN.ZIP    13,366 KB    Contains SP6.BIN: all the data (1960.1-2006.4).

FPCOD.ZIP    221 KB    Contains FP code if you want to compile yourself (optional).

To work with the MCA model once you have downloaded the files and unzipped them, run at the DOS prompt:

FP > OUT
INPUT FILE=SP6.INP;

This job loads all the data, estimates the model, and runs a test job. The test job is the experiment in Table 7.1 in Chapter 7 in Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works. When the job is done, examine OUT to check that everything is working properly.

You need to know how to use the FP program in order to work with the MCA model. You may want to download the FP test examples from the website and run these first in order to get familiar with the program. (See The Fair-Parke Program.)

There are many comments in SP6.INP and in the .INP files that it calls. You should read these carefully to make sure you know what is going on. You should note the following:

  1. A number of "tricks" have to be used in SP6.INP to link the quarterly and annual data. These are noted in the file. The annual data are stored in the first quarter, with the remaining three quarters having "missing" values. A lag of 4 for an annual country is a lag of one year, not four years.
  2. There are two sets of trade share variables (the alphas): A____ and AA____. The AA____'s are the ones predicted by the trade share equations, and the A____'s are the ones that are constrained to sum to 1. The trade flow variables are denoted X____.
  3. A solution period must begin in the first quarter of a year and end in the fourth quarter of a year. Otherwise the tricks of linking the quarterly and annual data do not work.
  4. The stochastic equations are numbered 1 through 362 (before getting to the trade share equations). The PRINTMODEL command allows you to see the numbering of the equations.
  5. Note the different treatment before and after 1999.1 regarding the EMU countries (dummy variables EU1 and EU2). This is explained in comments in SP6.INP.
  6. Once you learn how to work with the MCA model in the FP program, all the FP commands are at your disposal, and so much experimentation can be done.