Downloading the MCE Model
The documentation for the MCE model is in The MCE Model Workbook: January 30, 2010 (pdf), Appendix A: The US Part of the MCE Model: January 30, 2010 (pdf), and Appendix B: The ROW Part of the MCE Model: January 30, 2010 (pdf). You should also read Chapter 2 of Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works.

Data from the MCE model can be downloaded online by going to the output phase when working with the MCE model and downloading from there.

If you want to download the MCE model for use on your own machine, this can be done by downloading the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the MCE model files that go with the FP program. One of the files that needs to be downloaded is about 21 MB in size.

The following are the downloadable files:

FP.ZIP    757 KB   Contains FP.EXE, the FP compiled program.

MC.ZIP    304 KB    Contains the following:

  • SP6.INP    Main input dataset
  • SP6US.DAT    Read by SP6.INP
  • EST.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR1.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • SHR2.INP    Read by SP6.INP
  • XX00.INP    Read by SP6.IN6
  • FORBIG.VAR    Read by SP6.INP

SP6BIN.ZIP    20,937 KB    Contains SP6.BIN: all the data (1960.1-2020.4).

SP6OUT.ZIP    2,551 KB    Contains SP6.OUT: the output file from executing SP6.INP. (This has the stimulus experiment in it.)

FPCOD.ZIP    224 KB    Contains FP code if you want to compile yourself (optional).

To work with the MCE model once you have downloaded the files and unzipped them, run at the DOS prompt:


This job loads all the data, estimates the model, and runs a test job. The output from the test job is in the file SP6.OUT, and your OUT file should match SP6.OUT subject to rounding error. If so, then everything is probably working properly.

You need to know how to use the FP program in order to work with the MC model. You may want to download the FP test examples from the website and run these first in order to get familiar with the program. (See The Fair-Parke Program.)

There are many comments in SP6.INP and in the .INP files that it calls. You should read these carefully to make sure you know what is going on. You should note the following:

  1. A number of "tricks" have to be used in SP6.INP to link the quarterly and annual data. These are noted in the file. The annual data are stored in the first quarter, with the remaining three quarters having "missing" values. A lag of 4 for an annual country is a lag of one year, not four years.
  2. There are two sets of trade share variables (the alphas): A____ and AA____. The AA____'s are the ones predicted by the trade share equations, and the A____'s are the ones that are constrained to sum to 1. The trade flow variables are denoted X____.
  3. A solution period must begin in the first quarter of a year and end in the fourth quarter of a year. Otherwise the tricks of linking the quarterly and annual data do not work.
  4. The stochastic equations are numbered 1 through 305 (before getting to the trade share equations). The PRINTMODEL command allows you to see the numbering of the equations.
  5. Note the different treatment before and after 1999.1 regarding the EMU countries (dummy variables EU1 and EU2). This is explained in comments in SP6.INP.
  6. Once you learn how to work with the MC model in the FP program, all the FP commands are at your disposal, and so much experimentation can be done.
  7. Some of the data for 2009 do not match exactly the data used for the coefficient estimates. This is because some of the data are predicted data that differ slightly from the actual data when the actual data are available. Actual data were used for the coefficient estimates for the website version of the model, whereas predicted data are used for the downloaded version of the model. This only concerns a few countries and only for at most the first three quarters of 2009, and the coefficient differences are small. This is nothing one need worry about.