|MC1 Model Forecast: May 21, 1997|
|The MC1 model forecasts are contained in the dataset MCBASE. The last year
forecast is 2002. You can thus examine any of the forecasts by copying MCBASE to your
dataset and then examining the output.
This memo contains tables of forecasts of the main variables in the model. The first set of tables is by variable, and the second set is by country. The values presented are percentage changes at annual rates (in percentage points) except for variables UR, RS, RB, S, ZZ, and Z, which are in levels (in percentage points). The first set of tables presents only yearly values, but the second set also presents quarterly values for the quarterly countries. When a value is marked with a ~, this denotes the last observed value of the variable; all the values after than are forecast values. A value of 99.9 in a table indicates that data do not exist for that variable for the particular country.
The US forecast values differ somewhat from the values presented in the US Forecast Memo: May 9, 1997 because the predicted values of the US variables PIM and EX differ from the (exogenous) values used for the May 9, 1997, memo. Also, as discussed in Chapter 1 in The MC1 Model Workbook, the price and wage equations used for the United States in the MC1 model differ from those used in the US model alone.
The tables are self explanatory, and it will be left to the reader to pour over them. If you want more details for a particular country than are in the tables, just examine them as discussed in the first paragraph above. If you disagree with the choices of some of the exogenous-variable values, you can change them and then solve for a new forecast. It is thus easy to examine the sensitivity of the forecasts to alternative exogenous-variable assumptions. You can also add factor the equations if desired. Any comments that you would like to leave at the Message Center are welcome.