| Appendix A: Tables for the US Model |
| Table A.1: The Six Sectors Table A.2: Variables in Alphabetical Order Table A.3: The Equations Table A.4: The Raw Data Variables Table A.5: Links between NIPA and FFA Table A.6: Construction of the Variables Table A.7: First Stage Regressors Table A.8: Solution under Alternative Monetary Policy Assumptions Table A.9: Cross Reference Chart |
| Table A.1: The Six Sectors |
Table A.1
The Six Sectors of the US Model
Sector in the Model Corresponding Sector(s) in the Flow of Funds Accounts 1. Household (h) 1a. Households and Nonprofit Organizations (H1)
1b. Farm Business (FA)
1c. Nonfarm Noncorporate Business (NN)
2. Firm (f) 2. Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business (F)
3. Financial (b) 3a. Commercial Banking (B1):
(1) U.S.-Chartered Commercial Banks
(2) Foreign Banking Offices in U.S.
(3) Bank Holding Companies
(4) Banks in U.S.-Affiliated Areas
3b. Private Nonbank Financial Institutions (B2):
(1) Funding Corporations
(2) Savings Institutions
(3) Credit Unions
(4) Life Insurance Companies
(5) Other Insurance Companies
(6) Private Pension Funds
(7) State and Local Government Employee Retirement Funds
(8) Finance Companies
(9) Mortgage Companies
(10) Mutual Funds
(11) Closed-End Funds
(12) Money Market Mutual Funds
(13) Real Estate Investment Trusts
(14) Security Brokers and Dealers
(15) Issuers of Asset Backed Securities
(16) Bank Personal Trusts and Estates
4. Foreign (r) 4. Foreign (R)
5. Fed. Gov. (g) 5a. U.S. Government (US)
5b. Government-Sponsored Enterprises (CA)
5c. Federally Related Mortgage Pools
5d. Monetary Authority (MA)
6. S & L Gov. (s) 6. State and Local Governments General Funds (S)
|
| Table A.2: Variables in Alphabetical Order |
Table A.2
The Variables in the US Model in Alphabetical Order
Var. Eq. Description AA 89 Total net wealth, h, B92$.
AB 73 Net financial assets, b, B$.
AF 70 Net financial assets, f, B$.
AG 77 Net financial assets, g, B$.
AG1 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 26-55 minus percent 16-25.
AG2 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 56-65 minus percent 16-25.
AG3 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 66+ minus percent 16-25.
AH 66 Net financial assets, h, B$.
AR 75 Net financial assets, r, B$.
AS 79 Net financial assets, s, B$.
BF 55 Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, f, B$.
BG 56 Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, g, B$.
BO 22 Bank borrowing from the Fed, B$.
BR 57 Total bank reserves, B$.
CCB Exog. Capital consumption, b, B92$.
CCF 21 Capital consumption, f, B$.
CCG Exog. Capital consumption, g, B$.
CCH Exog. Capital consumption, h, B$.
CCS Exog. Capital consumption, s, B$.
CD 3 Consumer expenditures for durable goods, B92$.
CDA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of CD/POP.
CF 68 Cash flow, f, B$.
CG 25 Capital gains(+) or losses(-) on corporate stocks held by h, B$
CN 2 Consumer expenditures for nondurable goods, B92$.
COG Exog. Purchases of consumption and investment goods, g, B92$.
COS Exog. Purchases of consumption and investment goods, s, B92$.
CS 1 Consumer expenditures for services, B92$.
CUR 26 Currency held outside banks, B$.
D1G Exog. Personal income tax parameter, g.
D1GM 90 Marginal personal income tax rate, g.
D1S Exog. Personal income tax parameter, s.
D1SM 91 Marginal personal income tax rate, s.
D2G Exog. Profit tax rate, g.
D2S Exog. Profit tax rate, s.
D3G Exog. Indirect business tax rate, g.
D3S Exog. Indirect business tax rate, s.
D4G Exog. Employee social security tax rate, g.
D5G Exog. Employer social security tax rate, g.
D691 Exog. 1 in 1969:1; 0 otherwise.
D692 Exog. 1 in 1969:2; 0 otherwise.
D714 Exog. 1 in 1971:4; 0 otherwise.
D721 Exog. 1 in 1972:1; 0 otherwise.
D794823 Exog. 1 from 1979:4 through 1982:3; 0 otherwise.
D811824 Exog. 1 from 1981:1 through 1982:4; 0 otherwise.
D831834 Exog. 1 from 1983:1 through 1983:4; 0 otherwise.
DB Exog. Dividends paid, b, B$.
DD772 Exog. 1 from 1977:2 on; 0 otherwise.
DELD Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of durable goods,
rate per quarter.
DELH Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of housing,
rate per quarter.
DELK Exog. Physical depreciation rate of the stock of capital,
rate per quarter.
DF 18 Dividends paid, f, B$.
DISB Exog. Discrepancy for b, B$.
DISBA Exog. Discrepancy between NIPA and FFA data on capital consumption,
nonfinancial corporate business, B$.
DISF Exog. Discrepancy for f, B$.
DISG Exog. Discrepancy for g, B$.
DISH Exog. Discrepancy for h, B$.
DISR Exog. Discrepancy for r, B$.
DISS Exog. Discrepancy for s, B$.
DRS Exog. Dividends received by s, B$.
E 85 Total employment, civilian and military, millions.
EX Exog. Exports, B92$.
EXPG 106 Total expenditures, g, B$.
EXPS 113 Total expenditures, s, B$.
FA Exog. Farm gross product, B92$.
FIROW Exog. Payments of factor income to the rest of the world, B$.
FIROWD Exog. FIROW price index.
FIUS Exog. Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world, B$.
FIUSD Exog. FIUS price index.
G1 Exog. Reserve requirement ratio.
GDP 82 Gross Domestic Product, B$.
GDPD 84 GDP chain price index.
GDPR 83 Gross Domestic Product, B92$.
GNP 129 Gross National Product, B$.
GNPD 131 GNP chain price index.
GNPR 130 Gross National Product, B92$.
HF 14 Average number of hours paid per job, f, hours per quarter.
HFF 100 Deviation of HF from its peak to peak interpolation.
HFS Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of HF.
HG Exog. Average number of hours paid per civilian job, g, hours
per quarter.
HM Exog. Average number of hours paid per military job, g, hours
per quarter.
HN 62 Average number of non overtime hours paid per job, f, hours
per quarter.
HO 15 Average number of overtime hours paid per job, f, hours
per quarter.
HS Exog. Average number of hours paid per job, s, hours per quarter.
IBTG 51 Indirect business taxes, g, B$.
IBTS 52 Indirect business taxes, s, B$.
IGZ Exog. Gross investment, g, B$.
IHB Exog. Residential investment, b, B92$.
IHF Exog. Residential investment, f, B92$.
IHH 4 Residential investment, h, B92$.
IHHA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of IHH/POP.
IKB Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, b, B92$.
IKF 12 Nonresidential fixed investment, f, B92$.
IKFA Exog. Peak to peak interpolation of IKF.
IKG Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, g, B92$.
IKH Exog. Nonresidential fixed investment, h, B92$.
IM 27 Imports, B92$.
INS Exog. Insurance credits to households from g, B$.
INTF 19 Net interest payments, f, B$.
INTG 29 Net interest payments, g, B$.
INTOTH Exog. Net interest payments, sole proprietorships and partnerships
and other private business, B$.
INTROW 88 Net interest receipts, r, B$.
INTS Exog. Net interest payments, s, B$.
ISZ Exog. Gross investment, s, B$.
IVA 20 Inventory valuation adjustment, B$.
IVF 117 Inventory investment, f, B92$.
IVH Exog. Inventory investment, h, B92$.
IVVH Exog. Inventory investment, h, B$.
JF 13 Number of jobs, f, millions.
JG Exog. Number of civilian jobs, g, millions.
JHMIN 94 Number of worker hours required to produce Y, millions.
JJ 95 Ratio of the total number of worker hours paid for to the
total population 16 and over.
JJP Exog. Potential value of JJ.
JJS 96 Ratio of actual to potential JJ.
JM Exog. Number of military jobs, g, millions.
JS Exog. Number of jobs, s, millions.
KD 58 Stock of durable goods, B92$.
KH 59 Stock of housing, h, B92$.
KK 92 Stock of capital, f, B92$.
KKMIN 93 Amount of capital required to produce Y, B92$.
L1 5 Labor force of men 25-54, millions.
L2 6 Labor force of women 25-54, millions.
L3 7 Labor force of all others, 16+, millions.
LAM Exog. Amount of output capable of being produced per worker hour.
LM 8 Number of "moonlighters": difference between the total
number of jobs (establishment data) and the total number of
people employed (household survey data), millions.
M1 81 Money supply, end of quarter, B$.
MB 71 Net demand deposits and currency, b, B$.
MDIF Exog. Net increase in demand deposits and currency of banks in
U.S. possessions plus change in demand deposits and currency
of private nonbank financial institutions plus change in demand
deposits and currency of federally sponsored credit agencies
and mortgage pools minus mail float, U.S. government, B$.
MF 17 Demand deposits and currency, f, B$.
MG Exog. Demand deposits and currency, g, B$.
MH 9 Demand deposits and currency, h, B$.
MR Exog. Demand deposits and currency, r, B$.
MRS Exog. Mineral rights sales, B$.
MS Exog. Demand deposits and currency, s, B$.
MUH Exog. Amount of output capable of being produced per unit of capital.
P2554 Exog. Percent of 16+ population 25-54.
PCD 37 Price index for CD.
PCGDPD 122 Percentage change in GDPD, annual rate, percentage points.
PCGDPR 123 Percentage change in GDPR, annual rate, percentage points.
PCM1 124 Percentage change in M1, annual rate, percentage points.
PCN 36 Price price index for CN.
PCS 35 Price price index for CS.
PD 33 Price price index for X - EX + IM (domestic sales).
PEX 32 Price price index for EX.
PF 10 Price price index for X - FA.
PFA Exog. Price price index for FA.
PG 40 Price price index for COG.
PH 34 Price price index for CS + CN + CD + IHH inclusive of indirect
business taxes.
PIEB Exog. Before tax profits, b, B92$.
PIEF 67 Before tax profits, f, B$.
PIEH Exog. Before tax profits, h, B$.
PIH 38 Price price index for residential investment.
PIK 39 Price price index for nonresidential fixed investment.
PIM Exog. Price price index for IM.
PIV 42 Price price index for inventory investment, adjusted.
POP 120 Noninstitutional population 16+, millions.
POP1 Exog. Noninstitutional population of men 25-54, millions.
POP2 Exog. Noninstitutional population of women 25-54, millions.
POP3 Exog. Noninstitutional population of all others, 16+, millions.
PROD 118 Output per paid for worker hour ("productivity").
PS 41 Price price index for COS.
PSI1 Exog. Ratio of PEX to PX.
PSI2 Exog. Ratio of PCS to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI3 Exog. Ratio of PCN to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI4 Exog. Ratio of PCD to (1 + D3G + D3S)PD.
PSI5 Exog. Ratio of PIH to PD.
PSI6 Exog. Ratio of PIK to PD.
PSI7 Exog. Ratio of PG to PD.
PSI8 Exog. Ratio of PS to PD.
PSI9 Exog. Ratio of PIV to PD.
PSI10 Exog. Ratio of WG to WF.
PSI11 Exog. Ratio of WM to WF.
PSI12 Exog. Ratio of WS to WF.
PSI13 Exog. Ratio of gross product of g and s to total employee hours
of g and s.
PSI14 Exog. Ratio of INTROW to INTF+INTG.
PUG 104 Purchases of goods and services, g, B$.
PUS 110 Purchases of goods and services, s, B$.
PX 31 Price price index for X.
Q Exog. Gold and foreign exchange, g, B$.
RB 23 Bond rate, percentage points.
RD Exog. Discount rate, percentage points.
RECG 105 Total receipts, g, B$.
RECS 112 Total receipts, s, B$.
RET Exog. Retirement credits to households from s, B$.
RM 24 Mortgage rate, percentage points.
RMA 128 After tax mortgage rate, percentage points.
RNT Exog. Rental income, h, B$.
RS 30 Three month Treasury bill rate, percentage points.
RSA 130 After tax bill rate, percentage points.
SB 72 Saving, b, B$.
SF 69 Saving, f, B$.
SG 76 Saving, g, B$.
SGP 107 NIA surplus (+) or deficit (-), g, B$.
SH 65 Saving, h, B$.
SHRPIE 121 Ratio of after tax profits to the wage bill net of employer
social security taxes.
SIFG 54 Employer social insurance contributions, f to g, B$.
SIFS Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, f to s, B$.
SIG 103 Total employer and employee social insurance contributions
to g, B$.
SIGG Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, g to g, B$.
SIHG 53 Employee social insurance contributions, h to g, B$.
SIHS Exog. Employee social insurance contributions, h to s, B$.
SIS 109 Total employer and employee social insurance contributions
to s, B$.
SISS Exog. Employer social insurance contributions, s to s, B$.
SR 74 Saving, r, B$.
SRZ 116 Saving rate, h.
SS 78 Saving, s, B$.
SSP 114 NIA surplus (+) or deficit (-), s, B$.
STAT Exog. Statistical discrepancy, B$.
STATP Exog. Statistical discrepancy relating to the use of chain type
price indices, B92$.
SUBG Exog. Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises,
g, B$.
SUBS Exog. Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises,
s, B$.
SUR Exog. Current surplus of federally sponsored credit agencies and
mortgage pools and of the monetary authority, B$.
T Exog. 1 in 1952:1, 2 in 1952:2, etc.
TAUG Exog. Progressivity tax parameter in personal income tax equation
for g.
TAUS Exog. Progressivity tax parameter in personal income tax equation
for s.
TBG Exog. Corporate profit taxes, b to g, B$.
TBS Exog. Corporate profit taxes, b to s, B$.
TCG 102 Corporate profit tax receipts, g, B$.
TCS 108 Corporate profit tax receipts, s, B$.
TFA Exog. Farm taxes, B$.
TFG 49 Corporate profit taxes, f to g, B$.
TFS 50 Corporate profit taxes, f to s, B$.
THG 47 Personal income taxes, h to g, B$.
THS 48 Personal income taxes, h to s, B$.
TI Exog. 0 through 1981:2, 1 in 1981:3, 2 in 1981:4,...,40 in 1991:2
and thereafter.
TPG 101 Personal income tax receipts, g, B$.
TRFH Exog. Transfer payments, f to h, B$.
TRFR Exog. Transfer payments, f to r, B$.
TRGH Exog. Transfer payments, g to h, B$.
TRGR Exog. Transfer payments, g to r, B$.
TRGS Exog. Transfer payments, g to s, B$.
TRHR Exog. Transfer payments, h to r, B$.
TRRSH 111 Total transfer payments, s to h, B$.
TRSH Exog. Transfer payments, s to h, excluding unemployment insurance
benefits, B$.
TXCR Exog. Dummy variable for the investment tax credit.
U 86 Number of people unemployed, millions.
UB 28 Unemployment insurance benefits, B$.
UBR 128 Unborrowed reserves, B$.
UR 87 Civilian unemployment rate.
V 63 Stock of inventories, f, B92$.
WA 126 After tax wage rate. (Includes supplements to wages and
salaries except employer contributions for social insurance.)
WF 16 Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of workers in f.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WG 44 Average hourly earnings of civilian workers in g.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WH 43 Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of all workers.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WLDG Exog. Wage accruals less disbursements, g, B$.
WLDS Exog. Wage accruals less disbursements, s, B$.
WM 45 Average hourly earnings of military workers.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WR 119 Real wage rate of workers in f.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries except employer
contributions for social insurance.)
WS 46 Average hourly earnings of workers in s.
(Includes supplements to wages and salaries including employer
contributions for social insurance.)
X 60 Total sales f, B92$.
XX 61 Total sales, f, B$.
Y 11 Production, f, B92$.
YD 115 Disposable income, h, B$.
YNL 99 After tax nonlabor income, h, B$.
YS 98 Potential output of the firm sector.
YT 64 Taxable income, h, B$.
Z 97 Labor constraint variable.
B$ = Billions of dollars, B92$ = Billions of 1992 dollars. |
| Table A.3: The Equations |
Table A.3
The Equations of the US Model
STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS LHS Var. Explanatory Variables Household Sector 1. log(CS/POP)
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, log(CS/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], RSA
[Consumer expenditures: services]
2. log(CN/POP)
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, log(CN/POP)-1,<>log(CN/POP)-1,
log(AA/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], RMA
[Consumer expenditures: nondurables]
3. CD/POP
cnst, AG1, AG2, AG3, (CD/POP)-1, (KD/POP)-1, YD/(POP*PH),
RMA*CDA
[Consumer expenditures: durables]
4. IHH/POP
cnst, (IHH/POP)-1, (KH/POP)-1, (AA/POP)-1, YD/(POP*PH),
RMA-1*IHHA, RHO=2
[Residential investment--h]
5. log(L1/POP1)
cnst, log(L1/POP1)-1, log(WA/PH), Z, T
[Labor force--men 25-54]
6. log(L2/POP2)
cnst, log(L2/POP2)-1, log(WA/PH), Z
[Labor force--women 25-54]
7. log(L3/POP3)
cnst, log(L3/POP1)-1), log(WA/PH), Z, log(AA/POP)-1, T
[Labor force--all others 16+]
8. log(LM/POP)
cnst, log(LM/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), Z
[Number of moonlighters]
9. log[MH/(POP*PH)]
cnst, log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)], log[YD/(POP*PH)], RSA, RHO=1
[Demand deposits and currency--h]
Firm Sector
10. logPF
logPF-1, log[WF(1+D5G)], cnst, logPIM, log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1, RHO=1
[Price price index for X-FA]
11. Y
cnst, Y-1, X, V-1, RHO=3
[Production--f]
12. <>IKF
(KK-KKMIN)-1, IKF-1-DELK*KK-1, <>Y, <>Y-1, <>Y-2, <>Y-3, <>Y-4, TXCR*IKFA, RB'-3*IKFA
[Nonresidential fixed investment--f]
13. <>logJF
cnst, DD772, log(JF/JHMIN)-1,DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1,
<>logJF-1, DD772*<>logJF-1, T, DD772*T, <>logY
[Number of jobs--f]
14. <>logHF
cnst, logHF-1, log(JF/JHMIN)-1, T, <>logY, RHO=1
[Average number of hours paid per job--f]
15. logHO
cnst, HFF, HFF-1, RHO=1
[Average number of overtime hours paid per job--f]
16. logWF
logWF-1, logPF, logWF-2, logWF-3, logWF-4, cnst, T,
logPF-1, logPF-2, logPF-3, logPF-4, RHO=1
[Average hourly earnings excluding overtime--f]
17. log(MF/PF)
cnst, T, log(MF-1/PF), log(X-FA), RS(1-D2G-D2S)
[Demand deposits and currency--f]
18. <>logDF
log[(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF-1]
[Dividends paid--f]
19. INTF
.24*TI + Sum0i=-33(1/400)RBiBFi+(1/400)RS*.50*|AF|
[Interest payments--f]
20. IVA
cnst, (PX-PX-1)V-1, RHO=1
[Inventory valuation adjustment]
21. <>logCCF
log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF-1], D811824, D831834
[Capital consumption--f]
Financial Sector
22. BO/BR
cnst, (BO/BR)-1, RS, RD
[Bank borrowing from the Fed]
23. RB-RS-2
cnst, RB-1-RS-2, RS-RS-2, RS-1-RS-2, RHO=1
[Bond rate]
24. RM-RS-2
cnst, RM-1-RS-2, RS-RS-2, RS-1-RS-2
[Mortgage rate]
25. CG
cnst, <>RB, <>(CF-TFG-TFS)
[Capital gains or losses on corporate stocks held by h]
26. log[CUR/(POP*PF)]
cnst, log[CUR-1/(POP-1*PF)], log[(X-FA)/POP], RSA, RHO=1
[Currency held outside banks]
Import Equation
27. log(IM/POP)
cnst, log(IM/POP)-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)], log(PF/PIM), RMA-1,
D691, D692, D714, D721
[Imports]
Government Sectors
28. logUB
cnst, logUB-1, logU, logWF, RHO=1
[Unemployment insurance benefits]
29. INTG
Sum0i=-17(1/400)(RBi-.3)BGi+(1/400)RS*.30*|AG|
[Interest payments--g]
30. RS
cnst, RS-1, 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1], JJS, PCGDPR, PCM1-1,
D794823*PCM1-1, <>RS-1, <>RS-2
[Three month Treasury bill rate]
IDENTITIES
31. PX = [PF(X - FA) + PFA*FA]/X
[Price price index for X]
32. PEX = PSI1*PX
[Price price index for EX]
33. PD = (PX*X - PEX*EX + PIM*IM)/(X - EX + IM)
[Price price index for domestic sales]
34. PH = (PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD + PIH*IHH + IBTG + IBTS)/(CS + CN
+ CD + IHH)
[Price price index for (CS + CN + CD + IHH) inclusive of
indirect business taxes]
35. PCS = PSI2(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price price index for CS]
36. PCN = PSI3(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price price index for CN]
37. PCD = PSI4(1 + D3G + D3S)PD
[Price price index for CD]
38. PIH = PSI5*PD
[Price price index for residential investment]
39. PIK = PSI6*PD
[Price price index for nonresidential fixed investment]
40. PG = PSI7*PD
[Price price index for COG]
41. PS = PSI8*PD
[Price price index for COS]
42. PIV = PSI9*PD
[Price price index for inventory investment]
43. WH = 100[(WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS
- SIGG - SISS)/(JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS)]
[Average hourly earnings excluding overtime of all workers]
44. WG = PSI10*WF
[Average hourly earnings of civilian workers--g]
45. WM = PSI11*WF
[Average hourly earnings of military workers]
46. WS = PSI12*WF
[Average hourly earnings of workers--s]
47. THG = [D1G + ((TAUG*YT)/POP)]YT
[Personal income taxes--h to g]
48. THS = [D1S + ((TAUS*YT)/POP)]YT
[Personal income taxes--h to s]
49. TFG = D2G(PIEF - TFS)
[Corporate profits taxes--f to g]
50. TFS = D2S*PIEF
[Corporate profits taxes--f to s]
51. IBTG = [D3G/(1 + D3G)](PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD - IBTS)
[Indirect business taxes--g]
52. IBTS = [D3S/(1 + D3S)](PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD - IBTG)
[Indirect business taxes--s]
53. SIHG = D4G[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Employee social insurance contributions--h to g]
54. SIFG = D5G[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Employer social insurance contributions--f to g]
55. BF = -.50(AF-AF-1)+BF-34
[Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, f]
56. BG = -.70(AG-AG-1)+BG-18
[Estimated long term bond issues in the current period, g]
57. BR = -G1*MB
[Total bank reserves]
58. KD = (1 - DELD)KD-1 + CD
[Stock of durable goods]
59. KH = (1 - DELH)KH-1 + IHH
[Stock of housing--h]
60. X = CS + CN + CD + IHH + IKF + EX - IM + COG + COS + IKH + IKB + IKG
+ IHF + IHB + IVH - PIEB - CCB
[Total sales--f]
61. XX = PCS*CS + PCN*CN + PCD*CD + PIH*IHH + PIK*IKF + PEX*EX - PIM*IM
+ PG*COG + PS*COS + PIK(IKH + IKB + IKG) + PIH(IHF + IHB)
+ IVVH - PX(PIEB + CCB) - IBTG - IBTS
[Total nominal sales--f]
62. HN = HF - HO
[Average number of non overtime hours paid per job--f]
63. V = V-1 + Y - X
[Stock of inventories--f]
64. YT = WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS + DF + DB
- DRS + INTF + INTG + INTS + INTOTH - INTROW + RNT + TRFH
+ PIEH - SIGG - SISS
[Taxable income--h]
65. SH = YT + CCH - PCS*CS - PCN*CN - PCD*CD - PIH*IHH - PIK*IKH - IVVH
- TRHR - THG - SIHG + TRGH - THS - SIHS + TRSH + UB + INS + RET
[Saving--h]
66. 0 = SH - <>AH - <>MH + CG - DISH
[Budget constraint--h; (determines AH)]
67. PIEF = XX + PIV(V - V-1) - WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) - RNT - TRFH
- TRFR - PIEH - CCH + SUBG + SUBS - INTF -INTOTH + INTROW
- CCF - IVA - STAT - SIFG - SIFS + FIUS - FIROW - CCG - CCS
[Before tax profits--f]
68. CF = XX - WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) - RNT - TRFH - TRFR - PIEH - CCH + SUBG
+ SUBS - INTF -INTOTH + INTROW - PIK*IKF - PIH*IHF - MRS -SIFG
- SIFS + FIUS - FIROW - CCG - CCS
[Cash flow--f]
69. SF = CF - TFG - TFS - DF
[Saving--f]
70. 0 = SF - <>AF - <>MF - DISF - STAT + DISBA
[Budget constraint--f; (determines AF)]
71. 0 = <>MB + <>MH + <>MF + <>MR + <>MG + <>MS - <>CUR
[Demand deposit identity; (determines MB)]
72. SB = PX(PIEB + CCB) - PIK*IKB - PIH*IHB - DB - TBG - TBS - SUR
[Saving--b]
73. 0 = SB - <>AB - <>MB - <>(BR - BO) - DISB - DISBA
[Budget constraint--b; (determines AB)]
74. SR = PIM*IM + TRHR + TRGR + TRFR - PEX*EX + FIROW - FIUS
[Saving--r]
75. 0 = SR - <>AR - <>MR + <>Q - DISR
[Budget constraint--r; (determines AR)]
76. SG = THG + IBTG + TFG + TBG + SUR + SIHG + SIFG + MRS - PG*COG
- WG*JG*HG - WM*JM*HM - INTG - TRGR - TRGH - TRGS - SUBG
- INS + SIGG - PIK*IKG + CCG
[Saving--g]
77. 0 = SG - <>AG - <>MG + <>CUR + <>(BR - BO) - <>Q - DISG
[Budget constraint--g; (determines AG unless AG is
exogenous)]
78. SS = THS + IBTS + TFS + TBS + SIHS + SIFS + TRGS + DRS - PS*COS
- WS*JS*HS - INTS - SUBS - TRSH - UB - RET + SISS + CCS
[Saving--s]
79. 0 = SS - <>AS - <>MS - DISS
[Budget constraint--s; (determines AS)]
80. 0 = <>AH + <>AF + <>AB + <>AG + <>AS + <>AR - CG + DISH
+ DISF + DISB + DISG + DISS + DISR + STAT
[Asset identity (redundant equation)]
81. M1 = M1-1 + <>MH + <>MF + <>MR + <>MS + MDIF
[Money supply]
82. GDP = XX + PIV(V - V-1) + IBTG + IBTS + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM
+ WS*JS*HS + WLDG + WLDS + PX(PIEB + CCB)
[Nominal GDP]
83. GDPR = Y + PIEB + CCB + PSI13(JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS) + STATP
[Real GDP]
84. GDPD = GDP/GDPR
[GDP chain price index]
85. E = JF + JG + JM + JS - LM
[Total employment, civilian and military]
86. U = L1 + L2 +L3 - E
[Number of people unemployed]
87. UR = U/(L1 + L2 + L3 - JM)
[Civilian unemployment rate]
88. INTROW = PSI14(INTF+INTG)
[Net interest receipts--r]
89. AA = (AH + MH)/PH + KH
[Total net wealth--h]
90. D1GM = D1G + (2*TAUG*YT)/POP
[Marginal personal income tax rate--g]
91. D1SM = D1S + (2*TAUS*YT)/POP
[Marginal personal income tax rate--s]
92. KK = (1 - DELK)KK-1 + IKF
[Stock of capital--f]
93. KKMIN = Y/MUH
[Amount of capital required to produce Y]
94. JHMIN = Y/LAM
[Number of worker hours required to produce Y]
95. JJ = (JF*HF + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS)/POP
[Ratio of the total number of worker hours paid for to
the total population 16 and over]
96. JJS = JJ/JJP
[Ratio of actual to potential JJ]
97. Z = min(0,1 - JJP/JJ)
[Labor constraint variable]
98. YS = LAM(JJP*POP - JG*HG - JM*HM - JS*HS)
[Potential output of the firm sector]
99. YNL = [1-D1G-D1S-(TAUG+TAUS)(YT/POP)](RNT+DF+DB-DRS+INTF+INTG+INTS
+INTOTH-INTROW+TRFH+PIEH)+TRGH+TRSH+UB
[After-tax nonlabor income--h]
100. HFF = HF - HFS
[Deviation of HF from its peak to peak interpolation]
101. TPG = THG - TFA
[Personal income tax receipts--g]
102. TCG = TFG + TFA + TBG
[Corporate profit tax receipts--g]
103. SIG = SIHG + SIFG + SIGG
[Total social insurance contributions to g]
104. PUG = PG*COG + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WLDG
[Purchases of goods and services--g]
105. RECG = TPG + TCG + IBTG + SIG
[Total receipts--g]
106. EXPG = PUG + TRGH + TRGR + TRGS + INTG + SUBG - WLDG - IGZ
[Total expenditures--g]
107. SGP = RECG - EXPG
[NIPA surplus or deficit--g]
108. TCS = TFS + TBS
[Corporate profit tax receipts--s]
109. SIS = SIHS + SIFS + SISS
[Total social insurance contributions to s]
110. PUS = PS*COS + WS*JS*HS + WLDS
[Purchases of goods and services--s]
111. TRRSH = TRSH + UB
[Total transfer payments--s to h]
112. RECS = THS + TCS + IBTS + SIS + TRGS
[Total receipts--s]
113. EXPS = PUS + TRRSH + INTS - DRS + SUBS - WLDS - ISZ
[Total expenditures--s]
114. SSP = RECS - EXPS
[NIPA surplus or deficit--s]
115. YD = WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS + RNT + DF
+ DB - DRS + INTF + INTG + INTS + INTOTH - INTROW + TRFH
+ TRGH + TRSH + UB - SIHG - SIHS - THG + TFA - THS - TRHR
- SIGG - SISS
[Disposable income--h]
116. SRZ = (YD - PCS*CS - PCN*CN - PCD*CD)/YD
[Saving rate--h]
117. IVF = V - V-1
[Inventory investment--f]
118. PROD = Y/(JF*HF)
[Output per paid for worker hour: "productivity"]
119. WR = WF/PF
[Real wage rate of workers in f]
120. POP = POP1 + POP2 + POP3
[Noninstitutional population 16 and over]
121. SHRPIE = [(1 - D2G - D2S)PIEF]/[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
[Ratio of after tax profits to the wage bill net of
employer social security taxes]
122. PCGDPR = 100[(GDPR/GDPR-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in GDPR]
123. PCGDPD = 100[(GDPD/GDPD-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in GDPD]
124. PCM1 = 100[(M1/M1-1)4 -1]
[Percentage change in M1]
125. UBR = BR - BO
[Unborrowed reserves]
126. WA = 100[(1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)[WF*JF(HN + 1.5*HO)]
+ (1-D1GM-D1SM)(WG*JG*HG + WM*JM*HM + WS*JS*HS - SIGG - SISS)]/
[JF(HN + 1.5*HO) + JG*HG + JM*HM + JS*HS]
[After tax wage rate]
127. RSA = RS(1 - D1GM - D1SM)
[After tax bill rate]
128. RMA = RM(1 - D1GM - D1SM)
[After tax mortgage rate]
129. GNP = GDP + FIUS - FIROW
[Nominal GNP]
130. GNPR = GDPR + FIUS/FIUSD - FIROW/FIROWD
[Real GNP]
131. GNPD = GNP/GNPR
[GNP chain price index]
Sector definitions: b = financial sector f = firm sector g = federal government sector h = household sector r = foreign sector s = state and local government sector |
| Table A.4: The Raw Data Variables |
Table A.4
The Raw Data Variables for the US Model
NIPA Data from the Survey of Current Business Real variables are in 1992 dollars Variable Table Line Description R1 GDP 1.1 1 Gross Domestic Product
R2 CDZ 1.1 3 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods
R3 CNZ 1.1 4 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods
R4 CSZ 1.1 5 Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services
R5 IKZ 1.1 8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment
R6 IHZ 1.1 11 Residential Fixed Investment
R7 IVZ 1.1 12 Change in Business Inventories
R9 EXZ 1.1 14 Exports
R10 IMZ 1.1 17 Imports
R61 PURGZ 1.1 21 Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, Federal
Government
R72 PURSZ 1.1 24 Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, S&L
R11 GDPR 1.2 1 Real Gross Domestic Product
R12 CD 1.2 3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods
R13 CN 1.2 4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods
R14 CS 1.2 5 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services
R15 IK 1.2 8 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
R16 IH 1.2 11 Real Residential Fixed Investment
R17 IV 1.2 12 Real Change in Business Inventories
R19 EX 1.2 14 Real Exports
R20 IM 1.2 17 Real Imports
R21 PURG 1.2 21 Real Federal Government Purchases
R22 PURS 1.2 24 Real State and Local Government Purchases
R23 FAZ 1.7 6 Farm Gross Domestic Product
R24 PROGZ 1.7 11 Federal Government Gross Domestic Product
R25 PROSZ 1.7 12 State and Local Government Domestic Gross Product
R26 FA 1.8 6 Real Farm Gross Domestic Product
R27 PROG 1.8 11 Real Federal Government Gross Domestic Product
R28 PROS 1.8 12 Real State and Local Government Gross Domestic Product
R29 FIUS 1.9 2 Receipts of Factor Income from the Rest of the World
R30 FIROW 1.9 3 Payments of Factor Income to the Rest of the World
R31 CCT 1.9 6 Private Consumption of Fixed Capital
R32 TRF 1.9 14 Business Transfer Payments
R33 STAT 1.9 15 Statistical Discrepancy
R34 WLDF 1.9 21 Wage Accruals less Disbursements
R35 DPER 1.9 23 Personal Dividend Income
R36 TRFH 1.9 25 Business Transfer Payments to Persons
R94 FIUSR 1.10 2 Real Receipts of Factor Income from the Rest of
the World
R95 FIROWR 1.10 3 Real Payments of Factor Income to the Rest of the World
R37 COMPT 1.14 2 Compensation of Employees
R38 SIT 1.14 7 Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
R39 DC 1.14 25 Dividends
R40 CCCB 1.16 2 Consumption of Fixed Capital, Corporate Business
R41 PIECB 1.16 10 Profits Before Tax, Corporate Business
R42 DCB 1.16 13 Dividends, Corporate Business
R43 IVA 1.16 15 Inventory Valuation Adjustment, Corporate Business
R44 CCADCB 1.16 16 Capital Consumption Adjustment, Corporate Business
R45 INTF 1.16 17 Net Interest, Corporate Business
R46 CCCBN 1.16 20 Consumption of Fixed Capital, Nonfinancial Corporate
Business
R47 PIECBN 1.16 28 Profits Before Tax, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R48 TCBN 1.16 29 Profits Tax Liability, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R49 DCBN 1.16 31 Dividends, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
R50 CCADCBN 1.16 34 Capital Consumption Adjustment, Nonfinancial Corporate
Business
R51 PRI 2.1 10 Proprietors'Income with Inventory Valuation and Capital
Consumption Adjustments
R52 RNT 2.1 13 Rental Income of Persons with Capital Consumption Adjustment
R53 PII 2.1 15 Personal Interest Income
R54 UB 2.1 18 Government Unemployment Insurance Benefits
R55 IPP 2.1 29 Interest Paid by Persons
R56 TRHR 2.1 30 Personal Transfer Payments to Rest of the World (net)
R57 TPG 3.2 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts, Federal Government
(see below for adjustments)
R58 TCG 3.2 6 Corporate Profits Tax Accruals, Federal Government
R59 IBTG 3.2 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals, Federal
Government
R60 SIG 3.2 13 Contributions for Social Insurance, Federal Government
R204 CONGZ 3.2 15 Consumption Expenditures, Federal Government
R62 TRGH 3.2 17 Transfer Payments (net) to Persons, Federal Government
(see below for adjustments)
R63 TRGR 3.2 18 Transfer Payments (net) to Rest of the World, Federal
Government
R64 TRGS 3.2 19 Grants in Aid to State and Local Governments, Federal
Government
R65 INTG 3.2 20 Net Interest Paid, Federal Government
R66 SUBG 3.2 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government
Enterprises, Federal Government
R67 WLDG 3.2 28 Wage Accruals less Disbursements, Federal Government
R68 TPS 3.3 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts, State and Local
Government (S&L)
R69 TCS 3.3 6 Corporate Profits Tax Accruals, S&L
R70 IBTS 3.3 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals, S&L
R71 SIS 3.3 11 Contributions for Social Insurance, S&L
R205 CONGS 3.3 14 Consumption Expenditures, S&L
R73 TRRSH 3.3 15 Transfer Payments to Persons, S&L
R74 INTS 3.3 16 Net Interest Paid, S&L
R75 SUBS 3.3 20 Subsidies Less Current Surplus of Government
Enterprises, S&L
R76 WLDS 3.3 23 Wage Accruals less Disbursements, S&L
R77 COMPMIL 3.7b 8 Compensation of Employees, Military, Federal Government
R78 SIHGA 3.14 3 Personal Contributions for Social Insurance to the
Federal Government, annual data only
R79 SIQGA 3.14 5 Government Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
to the Federal Government, annual data only
R80 SIFGA 3.14 6 Other Employer Contributions for Social Insurance to
the Federal Government, annual data only
R81 SIHSA 3.14 14 Personal Contributions for Social Insurance to the
S&L Governments, annual data only
R82 SIQSA 3.14 16 Government Employer Contributions for Social Insurance
to the S&L Governments, annual data only
R83 SIFSA 3.14 17 Other Employer Contributions for Social Insurance to
the S&L Governments, annual data only
R8 IVFAZ 5.10 2 Change in Farm Business Inventories
R18 IVFA 5.11 2 Real Change in Farm Business Inventories
R96 INTROWA 8.17 61 Net Interest, Rest of the World, annual data only
Flow of Funds Data Variable Code Description R97 CDDCF 103020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, F
R98 NFIF 105000005 Net Financial Investment, F
R99 IHFZ 105012001 Residential Construction, F
R100 MRS 105030003 Mineral Rights Sales
R101 PIEF 106060005 Profits before Tax, F
R102 CCNF 106300015 Depreciation Charges, NIPA, F
R103 DISF1 107005005 Discrepancy, F
R104 CDDCNN 113020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, NN
R105 NFINN 115000005 Net Financial Investment, NN
R106 IKNN 115013005 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, NN
R107 IVNN 115020003 Inventory Investment, NN
R108 CCNN 116300005 Capital Consumption, NN. Also, Current Surplus
= Gross Saving, NN
R109 CDDCFA 133020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, FA
R110 NFIFA 135000005 Net Financial Investment, FA
R111 IKFA 135013003 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, FA
R112 PIEFA 136060005 Corporate Profits, FA
R113 DFA 136120003 Dividends, FA
R114 TFA 136231003 Tax Accruals, FA
R115 CCFA 136300183 Capital Consumption, FA
R116 CCADFA 136310103 Capital Consumption Adjustment, FA
R117 CDDCH1 153020005 Change in Checkable Deposits and Currency, H1
R118 MVCE, CCE 153064105 Net Purchases of Corporate Equities of Households,
MVCE is the market value of the stock. CCE is the
change in the stock excluding capital gains and
losses
R119 NFIH1 155000005 Net Financial Investment, H1
R120 IKH1 155013003 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Nonprofit
Institutions
R121 DISH1 157005005 Discrepancy, H1
R122 NFIS 205000005 Net Financial Investment, S
R207 CCS 206300001 Capital Consumption, S
R123 DISS 217005005 Discrepancy, S
R124 CDDCS 213020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, S
R125 RET 224090005 Retirement Credits to Households, S
R126 CGLDR 263011005 Change in Gold and SDR's, R
R127 CDDCR 263020003 Change in U.S. Demand Deposits, R
R128 CFXUS 263111005 Change in U.S. Official Foreign Exchange and Net
IMF Position
R129 NFIR 265000005 Net Financial Investment, R
R130 PIEF2 266060005 Net Corporate Earnings Retained Abroad
R131 DISR1 267005005 Discrepancy, R
R132 CGLDFXUS 313011005 Change in Gold, SDR’s, and Foreign Exchange, US
R134 NGRR 313011301 Net Capital Grants from R, US
R133 CDDCUS 313020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, US
R135 INS 313154005 Insurance Credits to Households, US
R136 NFIUS 315000005 Net Financial Investment, US
R206 CCG 316300001 Capital Consumption, G
R137 DISUS 317005005 Discrepancy, US
R138 CDDCCA 403020003 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, CA
R139 NIACA 404090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, CA
R140 NILCA 404190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, CA
R141 IKCAZ 405013003 Fixed Nonresidential Investment, CA
R142 GSCA 406000105 Gross Saving, CA
R143 DISCA 407005005 Discrepancy, CA
R144 NIDDLB2 443127005 Net Increase in Liabilities in the form of
+473127003 Checkable Deposits, B2
R145 CBRB2 443013053 Change in Reserves at Federal Reserve, B2
R146 IHBZ6 45012205 Residential Construction, Multi Family Units, Reits
R147 CGD 656120000 Capital Gains Dividend
R148 CDDCB2 793020005 Change in Demand Deposits and Currency, B2
-NIDDAB1
-CDDCCA
R149 NIAB2 444090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, B2
+474090005
+604090005
+544090005
+514090005
+574090005
+224090005
+634000005
+654090005
+554090005
+674190005
+614090005
+623065003
+644090005
+664090005
+504090005
R150 NILB2 444190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, B2
+474190005
+604090005
+544190005
+514190005
+573150005
+224090005
+634000005
+653164005
+554090005
+674190005
+614190005
+624190005
+644190005
+664190005
+504190005
R151 IKB2Z 795013005 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, B2
-IKB1Z
-IKCAZ
-IKMAZ
R152 DISB2 447005005 Discrepancy, B2
+477005005
+547005005
+517005005
+617005005
+647005005
+667005005
R153 CGLDFXMA 713011005 Change in Gold and Foreign Exchange, MA
R154 CFRLMA 713068003 Change in Federal Reserve Loans to Domestic
Banks, MA
R155 NILBRMA 713113000 Change in Member Bank Reserves, MA
R156 NIDDLRMA 713122605 Change in Liabilities in the form of Demand Deposits
and Currency due to Foreign of the MA
R157 NIDDLGMA 713123105 Change in Liabilities in the form of Demand Deposits
and Currency due to U.S. Government of the MA
R158 NILCMA 713125005 Change in Liabilities in the form of Currency
Outside Banks of the MA
R159 NIAMA 714090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, MA
R160 NILMA 714190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, MA
R161 IKMAZ 715013003 Fixed Nonresidential Investment, MA
R162 GSMA 716000105 Gross Savings, MA
R163 DISMA 717005005 Discrepancy, MA
R164 CVCBRB1 723020005 Change in Vault Cash and Member Bank Reserves,
U.S. Chartered Commercial Banks
R165 NILVCMA 723025000 Change in Liabilities in the form of Vault Cash
of Commercial Banks of the MA
R166 NIDDAB1 743020003 Net increase in Financial Assets in the form of
Demand Deposits and Currency of Banks in U.S.
Possessions
R167 CBRB1A 753013003 Change in Reserves at Federal Reserve, Foreign
Banking Offices in U.S.
R168 NIDDLB1 763120005 Net Increase in Liabilities in the form of Checkable
Deposits, B1
R169 NIAB1 764090005 Net Increase in Financial Assets, B1
R170 NILB1 764190005 Net Increase in Liabilities, B1
R171 IKB1Z 765013005 Nonresidential Fixed Investment, B1
R172 DISB1 767005005 Discrepancy, B1
R173 MAILFLT1 903023105 Mail Float, U.S. Government
R174 MAILFLT2 903029205 Mail Float, Private Domestic Nonfinancial
Interest Rate Data Variable Description R175 RS Three Month Treasury Bill Rate (Auction Average), percentage points
[FRB, Table 1.35. Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R176 RM Mortgage Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.53. FHA mortgages,
secondary markets. Quarterly average of monthly data.
Linear interpolation for missing monthly observations.
R177 RB Aaa Corporate Bond Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.35.
Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R178 RD Discount Rate, percentage points. [FRB, Table 1.14. Rate at
F.R. Bank of N.Y. Quarterly average, inclusive of any surcharge.]
Employment and Population Data Variable Description R179 CE Civilian Employment, SA in millions. [EE, A-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R180 U Unemployment, SA in millions. [EE, A-1. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R181 CL1 Civilian Labor Force of Males 25-54, SA in millions. [EE, A-7
and A-8. Sum of Employed and Unemployed. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R182 CL2 Civilian Labor Force of Females 25-54, SA in millions. [EE, A-7
and A-8. Sum of Employed and Unemployed. Quarterly average of
monthly data. See below for adjustments.]
R183 TL Total Labor Force, SA in millions. [BLS, unpublished, "Labor
Force Level--Total Noninstitutional Population." Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R184 AF1 Armed Forces of Males 25-54, millions. [BLS, unpublished, "Armed
Forces, Males 25-54." Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R185 AF2 Armed Forces of Females 25-54, millions. [BLS, unpublished,"Armed
Forces, Females 25-54." Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R186 POP Total noninstitutional population 16 and over, millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R187 POP1 Noninstitutional population of males 25-54, millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R188 POP2 Noninstitutional population of females 25-54,millions. [BLS,
unpublished. Quarterly average of monthly data. See below for
adjustments.]
R189 JF Employment, Total Private Sector, All Persons, SA in millions.
[BLS, unpublished, "Basic Industry Data for the Economy less
General Government, All Persons."]
R190 HF Average Weekly Hours, Total Private Sector, All Persons, SA.
[BLS, unpublished, "Basic Industry Data for the Economy less
General Government, All Persons."]
R191 HO Average Weekly Overtime Hours in Manufacturing, SA. [EE, B-8.
Quarterly average of monthly data.]
R192 JQ Total Government Employment, SA in millions. [EE, B-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R193 JG Federal Government Employment, SA in millions. [EE, B-1. Quarterly
average of monthly data.]
R194 JHQ Total Government Employee Hours, SA in millions of hours per
quarter. [EE, B-10. Quarterly average of monthly data.]
Adjustments to the Raw Data R195 SIHG = [SIHGA/(SIHGA + SIHSA)](SIG + SIS - SIT)
[Employee Contributions for Social Insurance, h to g.]
R196 SIHS = SIG + SIS - SIT - SIHG
[Employee Contributions for Social Insurance, h to s.]
R197 SIFG = [SIFGA/(SIFGA + SIQGA)](SIG - SIHG)
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, f to g.]
R198 SIGG = SIG - SIHG - SIFG
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, g to g.]
R199 SIFS = [SIFSA/(SIFSA + SIQSA)](SIS - SIHS)
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, f to s.]
R200 SISS = SIS - SIHS - SIFS
[Employer Contributions for Social Insurance, s to s.]
R201 TBG = [TCG/(TCG + TCS)](TCG + TCS - TCBN)
[Corporate Profit Tax Accruals, b to g.]
R202 TBS = TCG + TCS - TCBN - TBG
[Corporate Profit Tax Accruals, b to s.]
R203 INTROW = -[(INTF+INTG)/(INTF annual + INTG annual)]INTROWA
[Net Interest Receipts of r.]
R57 TPG = TPG from raw data - TAXADJ
R62 TRGH = TRGH from raw data - TAXADJ
[TAXADJ: 1968:3 = 1.525, 1968:4 = 1.775, 1969:1 = 2.675,
1969:2 = 2.725, 1969:3 = 1.775, 1969:4 = 1.825, 1970:1 = 1.25,
1970:2 = 1.25, 1970:3 = 0.1, 1975:2 = -7.8.]
Multiplication factors (see the discussion in Section 3.2.2 in Testing Macroeconometric Models (MC1 Version). Variable 1952:1- 1952:1- 1973:1 1952:1- 1970:1-1989:4 1971:4 1972:4 1977:4 POP 1.00547 1.00009 1.00006 - 1.0058886-.0000736075*TPOP90 POP1 0.99880 1.00084 1.00056 - 1.0054512 -.00006814*TPOP90 POP2 1.00251 1.00042 1.00028 - 1.00091654-.000011457*TPOP90 (CE+U) 1.00391 1.00069 1.00046 1.00239 1.0107312-.00013414*TPOP90 CL1 0.99878 1.00078 1.00052 1.00014 1.00697786-.00008722*TPOP90 CL2 1.00297 1.00107 1.00071 1.00123 - CE 1.00375 1.00069 1.00046 1.00268 1.010617-.00013271*TPOP90 TPOP90 is 0 before 1970:1, 79 in 1970:1, 78 in 1970:2, ..., 1 in 1989:3, 0 in 1989:4, and 0 thereafter. Abbreviations:
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
EE Employment and Earnings, June 1996
FRB Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1996
SA Seasonally Adjusted
Notes:
1. For the construction of variables R195, R197, R199, and R203, the
annual observation was used for each quarter of the year.
2. See Table A.1 for abbreviations: B1, B2, CA, F, FA, H1, MA, NN, R,
S, US.
The Raw Data Variables in Alphabetical Order
Variable No. Variable No. Variable No. Variable No. AF1 R184 DISF1 R103 JG R193 PROSZ R25 AF2 R185 DISH1 R121 JHQ R194 PSA R93 CBRB1A R167 DISMA R163 JQ R192 PURG R21 CBRB2 R145 DISR1 R131 MAILFLT1 R173 PURGZ R61 CCADCB R44 DISS R123 MAILFLT2 R174 PURS R22 CCADCBN R50 DISUS R137 MRS R100 PURSZ R72 CCADFA R116 DPER R35 MVCE R118 PYA R84 CCCB R40 EX R19 NFIF R98 RB R177 CCCBN R46 EXZ R9 NFIFA R110 RD R178 CCE R118 FA R26 NFIH1 R119 RET R125 CCFA R115 FAZ R23 NFINN R105 RM R176 CCG R206 FIROW R30 NFIR R129 RNT R52 CCNF R102 FIROWR R95 NFIS R122 RS R175 CCNN R108 FIUS R29 NFIUS R136 SIFG R197 CCS R207 FIUSR R94 NGRR R134 SIFGA R80 CCT R31 GDP R1 NIAB1 R169 SIFS R199 CD R12 GDPR R11 NIAB2 R149 SIFSA R83 CDDCB2 R148 GSCA R142 NIACA R139 SIG R60 CDDCCA R138 GSMA R162 NIAMA R159 SIGG R198 CDDCF R97 HF R190 NIDDAB1 R166 SIHG R195 CDDCFA R109 HO R191 NIDDLB1 R168 SIHGA R78 CDDCH1 R117 IBTG R59 NIDDLB2 R144 SIHS R196 CDDCNN R104 IBTS R70 NIDDLGMA R157 SIHSA R81 CDDCR R127 IH R16 NIDDLRMA R156 SIQGA R79 CDDCS R124 IHBZ R146 NILBRMA R155 SIQSA R82 CDDCUS R133 IHFZ R99 NILB1 R170 SIS R71 CDZ R2 IHZ R6 NILB2 R150 SISS R200 CE R179 IK R15 NILCA R140 SIT R38 CFRLMA R154 IKB1Z R171 NILCMA R158 STAT R33 CFXUS R128 IKB2Z R151 NILMA R160 SUBG R66 CGD R147 IKCAZ R141 NILVCMA R165 SUBS R75 CGLDFXMA R153 IKFA R111 PCDA R85 TBG R201 CGLDFXUS R132 IKH1 R120 PCNA R86 TBS R202 CGLDR R126 IKMAZ R161 PCSA R87 TCBN R48 CL1 R181 IKNN R106 PEXA R90 TCG R58 CL2 R182 IKZ R5 PGA R92 TCS R69 CN R13 IM R20 PIECB R41 TFA R114 CNZ R3 IMZ R10 PIECBN R47 TL R183 COMPMIL R77 INS R135 PIEFA R112 TPG R57 COMPT R37 INTF R45 PIEF1 R101 TPS R68 CONGZ R204 INTG R65 PIEF2 R130 TRF R32 CONSZ R205 INTROW R203 PIHA R89 TRFH R36 CS R14 INTROWA R96 PII R53 TRGH R62 CSZ R4 INTS R74 PIKA R88 TRGR R63 CVCBRB1 R164 IPP R55 PIMA R91 TRGS R64 DC R39 IV R17 POP R186 TRHR R56 DCB R42 IVA R43 POP1 R187 TRRSH R73 DCBN R49 IVFA R18 POP2 R188 U R180 DFA R113 IVFAZ R8 PRI R51 UB R54 DISB1 R172 IVNN R107 PROG R27 WLDF R34 DISB2 R152 IVZ R7 PROGZ R24 WLDG R67 DISCA R143 JF R189 PROS R28 WLDS R76 |
| Table A.5: Links between NIPA and FFA |
Table A.5
Links Between the National Income and Product Accounts
and the Flow of Funds Accounts
Receipts from i to j: (i,j = h, f, b, r, g, s) hh = 0
fh = COMPT - PROGZ - PROSZ - (SIT - SIGG - SISS) - SUBG - SUBS + PRI + RNT
+ INTF + TRFH + DCBN + DC - DFA - DCB + PIEFA + CCT - CCCB + CCFA
+ CCADFA - WLDF
bh = DCB - DCBN
rh = 0
gh = PROGZ - SIGG - WLDG + TRGH + INS + INTG + SUBG
sh = PROSZ - SISS - WLDS + TRRSH + RET + INTS + DPER - DC + SUBS
hf = CSZ + CNZ + CDZ - IBTG - IBTS - IMZ - FIROW - PIECB + PIECBN - CCCB
+ CCCBN - CCADCB + CCADCBN + IHZ - IHFZ - IHBZ + IKH1 + IKFA + IKNN
+ IVFAZ + IVNN
ff = IHFZ + IKZ - IKH1 - IKFA - IKNN - IKBZ - IKGZ +IVZ -IVFAZ -IVNN
bf = IHBZ + IKBZ
rf = EXZ + FIUS
gf = PURGZ - PROGZ + IKGZ - CCG
sf = PURSZ - PROSZ - CCS
hb = PIECB - PIECBN + CCCB - CCCBN + CCADCB - CCADCBN
fb = 0
bb = 0
rb = 0
gb = 0
sb = 0
hr = IMZ + TRHR + FIROW
fr = TRFR
br = 0
rr = 0
gr = TRGR
sr = 0
hg = TPG + TFA + IBTG + SIHG
fg = TCG - TFA - TBG + MRS + SIFG
bg = TBG + GSCA + GSMA
rg = 0
gg = SIGG
sg = 0
hs = TPS + IBTS + SIHS
fs = TCS - TBS + SIFS
bs = TBS
rs = 0
gs = TRGS
ss = SISS
Saving of the Sectors
SH = fh + bh + gh + sh - (hf + hb + hr + hg + hs) SF = hf + ff + bf + rf + gf + sf - (fh + ff + fg + fs + fr) SB = hb - (bh + bf + bs + bg) SR = hr + gr - rf + fr SG = hg + fg + bg + gg - (gh + gf + gr + gs + gg) SS = hs + fs + bs + gs + ss - (sh + sf + ss) Checks 0 = SH + SF + SB + SR + SG + SS
SH = NFIH1 + NFIFA + NFINN + DISH1
SF = NFIF + DISF1 + STAT - DISBA + WLDF
SB = NIAB1 - NILB1 + NIAB2 - NILB2 + DISB1 + DISB2 + DISBA
SR = NFIR + DISR1 + NGRR
SG = NFIUS + NIACA - NILCA + NIAMA - NILMA + DISUS + DISCA + DISMA
SS = NFIS + DISS
0 = -NIDDLB1 + NIDDAB1 + CDDCB2 - NIDDLB2 + CDDCF + MAILFLT1 + MAILFLT2
+ CDDCUS + CDDCCA - NIDDLRMA - NIDDLGMA + CDDCH1 + CDDCFA + CDDCNN
+ CDDCR + CDDCS - NILCMA
0 = CVCBRB1 + CBRB1A + CBRB2 - NILBRMA - NILVCMA
0 = CGLDR - CFXUS + CGLDFXUS + CGLDFXMA
See Table A.4 for the definitions of the raw data variables. |
| Table A.6: Construction of the Variables |
Table A.6
Construction of the Variables for the US Model
Variable in Construction US Model AA Def., Eq. 89.
AB Def., Eq. 73. Base Period=1971:4, Value=244.977
AF Def., Eq. 70. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-230.421
AG Def., Eq. 77. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-215.665
AH Def., Eq. 66. Base Period=1971:4, Value=1926.964
AR Def., Eq. 75. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-.394
AS Def., Eq. 79. Base Period=1971:4, Value=-108.310
BF Def., Eq. 55. Value for 1952.1 taken to be 0.0; values before 1952.1
taken to be the same as the value for 1952.1
BG Def., Eq. 56. Value for 1952.1 taken to be 7.1; values before 1952.1
taken to be the same as the value for 1952.1
BO Sum of CFRLMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=.039
BR Sum of CVCBRB1 + CBRB1A + CBRB2. Base Period=1971:4, Value=35.329
CCB (CCCB+CCADCB-CCCBN-CCADCBN)/PX. See below for PX.
CCF CCCBN+CCADCBN-CCFA-CCADFA
CCG CCG
CCH CCT-CCCB+CCFA+CCADFA
CCS CCS
CD CD
CDA Peak to peak interpolation of CD/POP. Peak quarters are 1953:1,
1955:3, 1960:2, 1963:2, 1965:4, 1968:3, 1973:2, 1978:4, 1985:1,
1988:4, 1994:1, and 1995:4.
CF Def., Eq. 68
CG MVCE-MVCE-1-CCE
CN CN
COG PURG-PROG
COS PURS-PROS
CS CS
CUR Sum of NILCMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=53.521
D1G Def., Eq. 47
D1GM Def., Eq. 90
D1S Def., Eq. 48
D1SM Def., Eq. 91
D2G Def., Eq. 49
D2S Def., Eq. 50
D3G Def., Eq. 51
D3S Def., Eq. 52
D4G Def., Eq. 53
D5G Def., Eq. 55
DB DCB-DCBN
DELD .049511
DELH .006716
DELK .014574 for 1952:1-1970:4, .018428 for 1971:1-1980:4, .023068 for
1981:1-1993:2.
DF DC-DFA-(DCB-DCBN)
DISB DISB1+DISB2
DISBA 0
DISF DISF1 + WLDF
DISG DISUS+DISCA+DISMA
DISH DISH1
DISR DISR+NGRR
DISS DISS
DRS DC-DPER
E TL-U
EX EX
EXPG Def., Eq. 106
EXPS Def., Eq. 113
FA FA
FIROW FIROW
FIROWD FIROW/FIROWR
FIUS FIUS
FIUSD FIUS/FIUSR
G1 Def., Eq. 57
GDP Def., Eq. 82, or GDP
GDPD Def., Eq. 84
GDPR GDPR
GNP Def., Eq. 129
GNPD Def., Eq. 131
GNPR Def., Eq. 130
HF 13*HF
HFF Def., Eq. 100
HFS Peak to peak interpolation of HF. The peaks are 1952:4, 1966:1,
1977:2, and 1989:3. Flat end.
HG JHQ/JQ
HM 520
HN Def., Eq. 62
HO 13*HO. Constructed values for 1952:1-1955:4.
HS JHQ/JQ
IBTG IBTG
IBTS IBTS
IGZ PURGZ-CONGZ
IHB IHBZ/(IHZ/IH)
IHF IHFZ/(IHZ/IH)
IHH (IHZ-IHFZ-IHBZ)/(IHZ/IH)
IHHA Peak to peak interpolation of IHH/POP. Peak quarters are 1955:2,
1963:4, 1978:3, 1986:3, and 1994:2. Flat end.
IKB (IKB1Z+IKB2Z)/(IKZ/IK)
IKF (IKZ-IKH1-IKFA-IKNN-IKBZ)/(IKZ/IK)
IKFA Peak to peak interpolation of IKF. Peak quarters are 1957:3, 1964:3,
1966:1, 1969:3, 1974:1, 1980:1, 1985:2, 1993:2, and 1994:4.
IKG ((IKCAZ+IKMAZ)/(IKZ/IK)
IKH (IKH1+IKNN+IKFA)/(IKZ/IK)
IM IM
INS INS
INTF INTF
INTG INTG
INTOTH PII-INTF-INTG-INTS-IPP+INTROW
INTROW INTROW
INTS INTS
ISZ PURSZ-CONSZ
IVA IVA
IVF IV-IVFA-IVNN/PIV
IVH IVFA+IVNN/PIV
IVVH IVFAZ+IVNN
JF JF
JG JG
JHMIN Def., Eq. 94
JJ Def., Eq. 95
JJP Peak to peak interpolation of JJ. The peaks are 1952:4, 1955:4,
1959:3, 1969:1, 1973:3, 1979:3, 1985:4, 1990:1, 1995:1, and 1996:3.
JJS Def., Eq. 96
JM TL-CE-U
JS JQ-JG
KD Def., Eq. 58. Base Period=1952:4, Value=448.1, Dep. Rate=DELD
KH Def., Eq. 59. Base Period=1952:4, Value=1814.7, Dep. Rate=DELH
KK Def., Eq. 92. Base Period=1952:4, Value=1268.0, Dep. Rate=DELK
KKMIN Def., Eq. 93
L1 CL1+AF1
L2 CL2+AF2
L3 Def., Eq. 86
LAM Peak to peak interpolation of Y/(JF*HF). Peak quarters are 1953:4,
1961:4, 1965:4, 1973:2, 1977:3, and 1992:4.
LM Def., Eq. 85
M1 Def., Eq. 81. Base Period=1971:4, Value=247.219
MB Def., Eq. 71. Also sum of -NIDDLB1+NIDDAB1+CDDCB2-NIDDLB2.
Base Period=1971:4, Value=-189.610
MDIF NIDDAB1+CDDCB2+CDDCCA-MAILFLT1
MF Sum of CDDCF+MAILFLT1+MAILFLT2, Base Period= 1971:4, Value=64.909
MG Sum of CDDCUS+CDDCCA-NIDDLRMA-NIDDLGMA, Base Period=1971:4,
Value=10.526
MH Sum of CDDCH1+CDDCFA+CDDCNN. Base Period=1971:4, Value=149.079
MR Sum of CDDCR. Base Period=1971:4, Value=6.503
MRS MRS
MS Sum of CDDCS. Base Period=1971:4, Value=12.114
MUH Peak to peak interpolation of Y/KK. Peak quarters are 1953:2, 1955:3,
1959:2, 1962:3, 1965:4, 1969:1, 1978:2, 1984:2, 1989:2, and 1992:4.
Flat beginning and flat end.
PCD CDZ/CD
PCGNPD Def., Eq. 122
PCGNPR Def., Eq. 123
PCM1 Def., Eq. 124
PCN CNZ/CN
PCS CSZ/CS
PD Def., Eq. 33
PEX EXZ/EX
PF Def., Eq. 31
PFA FAZ/FA
PG (PURGZ-PROGZ)/(PURG-PROG)
PH Def., Eq. 34
PIEB (PIECB-PIECBN)/PX. See below for PX.
PIEF Def., Eq. 67, or PIEF1+PIEF2
PIEH PIEFA
PIH IHZ/IH
PIK IKZ/IK
PIM IMZ/IM
PIV (IVZ-IVFAZ)/(IV-IVFA), with the following adjustments: 1954:4 = .24,
1958:3 = .28, 1959:3 and 1959:4 = .32, 1970:4 = .38, 1975:3
and 1975:4 = .70, 1979:3 = .70, 1980:2 = .8, 1980:4 = .85,
1981:2 = .80
POP POP
POP1 POP1
POP2 POP2
POP3 POP-POP1-POP2
PROD Def., Eq. 118
PS (PURSZ-PROSZ)/(PURS-PROS)
PSI1 Def., Eq. 32
PSI2 Def., Eq. 35
PSI3 Def., Eq. 36
PSI4 Def., Eq. 37
PSI5 Def., Eq. 38
PSI6 Def., Eq. 39
PSI7 Def., Eq. 40
PSI8 Def., Eq. 41
PSI9 Def., Eq. 42
PSI10 Def., Eq. 44
PSI11 Def., Eq. 45
PSI12 Def., Eq. 46
PSI13 (PROG+PROS)/(JHQ + 520*AF)
PSI14 Def., Eq. 88
PUG Def., Eq. 104 or PURGZ
PUS Def., Eq. 110 or PURSZ
PX (CDZ+CNZ+CSZ+IHZ+IKZ+PURGZ-PROGZ+PURSZ-PROSZ+EXZ-IMZ-IBTG-IBTS+IVFAZ
+IVNN)/(CD+CN+CS+IH+IK+PURG-PROG+PURS-PROS+EX-IM+IVFA+IVNN/PIV)
Q Sum of CGLDFXUS+CGLDFXMA. Base Period=1971:4, Value=30.867.
RB RB
RD RD
RECG Def., Eq. 105
RECS Def., Eq. 112
RET RET
RM RM
RMA Def., Eq. 128
RNT RNT
RS RS
RSA Def., Eq. 130
SB Def., Eq. 72
SF Def., Eq. 69
SG Def., Eq. 76
SGP Def., Eq. 107
SH Def., Eq. 65
SHRPIE Def., Eq. 121
SIFG SIFG
SIFS SIFS
SIG SIG
SIGG SIGG
SIHG SIHG
SIHS SIHS
SIS SIS
SISS SISS
SR Def., Eq. 74
SRZ Def., Eq. 116
SS Def., Eq. 78
SSP Def., Eq. 114
STAT STAT
STATP Def., Eq. 83
SUBG SUBG
SUBS SUBS
SUR GSCA+GSKA
TAUG Determined from a regression. See Section 3.2.3 in
Testing Macroeconometric Models (MC1 Version).
TAUS Determined from a regression. See Section 3.2.3 in
Testing Macroeconometric Models (MC1 Version).
TBG TBG
TBS TBS
TCG TCG
TCS TCS
TFA TFA
TFG Def., Eq. 102
TFS Def., Eq. 108
THG Def., Eq. 101
THS TPS
TI 0 through 1981:2, 1 in 1981:3, 2 in 1981:4, ... , 40 in 1991:2
and thereafter.
TPG TPG
TRFH TRFH
TRFR TRF-TRFH
TRGH TRGH
TRGR TRGR
TRGS TRGS
TRHR TRHR
TRRSH TRRSH
TRSH Def., Eq. 111
TXCR .5 in 1962:3-1963:4 and 1971:3, 1.0 in 1964:1-1966:3 and 1967:3-1969:1
and 1971:4-1975:1, 1.43 in 1975:2-1986:1, and 0 otherwise
U (CE+U)-CE
UB UB
UBR Def., Eq. 125
UR Def., Eq. 87
V Def., Eq. 117. Base Period=1988:4, Value=1242.9
WA Def., Eq. 126
WF [COMPT-PROGZ-PROSZ-(SIT-SIGG-SISS)+PRI]/[JF(HF+.5*HO)]
WG (PROGZ-COMPMIL-WLDG)/[JG(JHQ/JQ)]
WH Def., Eq. 43
WLDF WLDF
WLDG WLDG
WLDS WLDS
WM COMPMIL/[520(TL-CE-U)]
WR Def., Eq. 119
WS (PROSZ-WLDS)/[(JQ-JG)(JHQ/JQ)]
X Def., Eq. 60
XX Def., Eq. 61
Y Def., Eq. 63
YD Def., Eq. 115
YNL Def., Eq. 99
YS Def., Eq. 98
YT Def., Eq. 64
Z Def., Eq. 97
Variables in the model in the first column are defined in terms of the raw data variables in Table A.4 or by the identities in Table A.3. |
| Table A.7: First Stage Regressors |
Table A.7
First Stage Regressors for the US Model for 2SLS and 3SLS
Basic Sets
Linear Log
1 constant constant 2 (AA/POP)-1 log(AA/POP)-1 3 COG+COS log(COG+COS) 4 (CD/POP)-1 log(CD/POP)-1 5 (CN/POP)-1 log(CN/POP)-1 6 (CS/POP)-1 log(CS/POP)-1 7 (1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1 log(1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1 8 EX logEX 9 HF-1 logHF-1 10 (IHH/POP)-1 log(IHH/POP)-1 11 (IM/POP)-1 log(IM/POP)-1 12 (JF-JHMIN)-1 log(JF/JHMIN)-1 13 (JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP log[(JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP] 14 (KH/POP)-1 log(KH/POP)-1 15 (KK-KKMIN)-1 log(KK/KKMIN)-1 16 PCM1-1 PCM1-1 17 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1 18 PF-1 logPF-1 19 PIM logPIM 20 RB-1 RB-1 21 RS-1 RS-1 22 RS-2 RS-2 23 T T 24 (TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1) log[(TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1)] 25 V-1 logV-1 26 WF-1 logWF-1 27 Y-1 logY-1 28 Y-2 logY-2 29 Y-3 logY-3 30 Y-4 logY-4 31 [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1 32 Z-1 Z-1 33 UR-1 UR-1 Additional First Stage Regressors for Each Equation Basic Eq. Set Additional 1 log log(WA/PH)-1, log(PCS/PH)-1, RSA-1, AG1, AG2, AG3,
log(CS/POP)-2, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
2 log log(WA/PH)-1, log(PCN/PH)-1, RSA-1, RMA-1, AG1, AG2, AG3,
log(CN/POP)-2, log(CN/POP)-3, log(AA/POP)-2,
log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
3 linear (WA/PH)-1, (PCD/PH)-1, RMA-1*CDA, (KD/POP)-1, AG1, AG2,
AG3, (CD/POP)-2, [YD/(POP*PH)]-1, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
4 linear (WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, RMA-1*IHHA, (IHH/POP)-2,
(AA/POP)-2, [YD/(POP*PH)]-1, [YD/(POP*PH)]-2,
RMA-2*IHHA-1, (KH/POP)-2, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1, (IHH/POP)-3,
(AA/POP)-3,(KH/POP)-3
5 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L1/POP1)-1, log(L1/POP1)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
6 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L2/POP2)-1, log(L2/POP2)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
7 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(L3/POP3)-1, log(L3/POP1)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
8 log log(WA-1/PH-1), log(LM/POP)-1, log(LM/POP)-2, log(AA/POP)-2
9 log log[MH/(POP*PH)]-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1, log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)]-1,
AG1, AG2, AG3, AG1-1, AG2-1, AG3-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2,
RSA-2
10 log log(1+D5G), log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1, logPF-2, log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-2,
log(1+D5G)-1, logPIM-1, logPIM-2, log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-3,
log(1+D5G)-2, logWF-2, logPF-3
11 linear V-2, V-3, V-4
12 linear IKF-1, DELK*KK-1, [RB(1-D2G-D2S)]-1, (KK-KKMIN)-2,
TXCR*IKFA, Y-5, RB'-3*IKFA, IKF-2
13 log <>logJF-1, log(JF/JHMIN)-2, <>logJF-2, DD772, DD772*T,
DD772*<>logJF-1, DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1, DD772-1*log(JF/JHMIN)-2,
DD772-1*<>logJF-2
14 log logHF-2, log(JF/JHMIN)-2, DD772, DD772*T,
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1, DD772-1*log(JF/JHMIN)-2
16 log log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1, logPF-1,logPF-2, logPF-3, logPF-4, logPF-5,
logPF-6,logWF-2, logWF-3, logWF-4, logWF-5, logWF-6
17 log log(MF/PF)-1, 1-D2G-D2S, RS-1(1-D2G-D2S)-1, log(MF-2/PF-1),
RS-2(1-D2G-D2S)-2
18 log log(PIEF-TFG-TFS)-1, log(D2G+D2S), logDF-1, logDF-2
22 linear (BO/BR)-1, RD-1, (BO/BR)-2, RD-2
23 linear RB-2, RB-3, RS-3, RS-4, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
24 linear RM-1, RM-2, RS-3, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
25 linear <>(CF-TFG-TFS)-1, CF-1, D2G+D2S, TFG+TFS
26 log log[CUR/(POP*PF)]-1, log[(X-FA)/POP]-1, log[CUR-2/(POP-2*PF-1)]
27 log D691, D692, D714, D721, RSA-1, RSA-2, log(IM/POP)-1,
log(IM/POP)-2, 100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1, log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1,
log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2, log(PF/PIM)-2
28 log logUB-1, logU-1, logU-2, logUB-2
30 linear D794823*PCM1-1, JJS-1, RS-3, RS-4, RS-5, RS-6,
100[(PD/PD-4)-1]-1
3SLS First Stage Regressors
1 constant 2 (AA/POP)-1 3 COG+COS 4 (CD/POP)-1 5 log(CN/POP)-1 6 log(CS/POP)-1 7 (1-D1GM-D1SM-D4G)-1 8 EX 9 logHF-1 10 (IHH/POP)-1 11 log(IM/POP)-1 12 log(JF/JHMIN)-1 13 (JG*HG+JM*HM+JS*HS)/POP 14 (KH/POP)-1 15 (KK-KKMIN)-1 16 PCM1-1 17 100[(PD/PD-1)4-1]-1 18 logPF-1 19 logPIM 20 RB-1 21 RS-1 22 RS-2 23 T 24 (TRGH+TRSH)/(POP*PH-1) 25 V-1 26 logWF-1 27 Y-1 28 Y-2 29 Y-3 30 Y-4 31 Z-1 32 UR-1 33 log[YD/(POP*PH)]-1 34 log[YD/(POP*PH)]-2 35 AG1 36 AG2 37 AG3 38 (KD/POP)-1 39 log(CN/POP)-2 40 log(L1/POP1)-1 41 log(L2/POP2)-1 42 log(L3/POP3)-1 43 log(LM/POP)-1 44 log(WA/PH)-1 45 log(WA/PH)-2 46 log(WA/PH)-3 47 log(WA/PH)-4 48 RM-1 49 RM-2 50 RS-3 51 RS-4 52 RS-5 53 RD-1 54 (BO/BR)-1 55 log[MH-1/(POP-1*PH)] 56 log(MF-1/PF) 57 log[CUR-1/(POP-1*PF)] 58 D794823*PMC1-1 59 log[(YS-Y)/YS+.04]-1 60 IKF-1-DELK*KK-1 61 log(JF-1/JF-2) 62 DD772 63 DD772*log(JF/JHMIN)-1 64 DD772*<>logJF-2 65 DD772*T 66 JJS-1 67 (IHH/POP)-2 68 TXCR*IKFA 69 RB'-3*IKFA |
| Table A.8: Solution under Alternative Monetary Policy Assumptions |
Table A.8
Solution of the US Model Under Alternative Monetary Policy Assumptions
There are five possible assumptions that can be made with respect to monetary policy in the US model. In the standard version monetary policy is endogenous; it is explained by equation 30--the interest rate reaction function. Under alternative assumptions, where monetary policy is exogenous, equation 30 is dropped and some of the other equations are rearranged for purposes of solving the model. For example, in the standard version equation 125 is used to solve for the level of nonborrowed reserves (UBR): (125) UBR = BR - BO When, however, the level of nonborrowed reserves is set exogenously, the equation is rearranged and used to solve for total bank reserves (BR): (125) BR = UBR+BO The following shows the arrangement of the equations for each of the five monetary policy assumptions. The variable listed is the one that is put on the left hand side of the equation and "solved for." Eq. RS RS M1 UBR AG No. Eq.30 Exog. Exog. Exog. Exog. 9 MH MH RSA RSA RSA 30 RS Out Out Out Out 57 BR BR BR MB MB 71 MB MB MB MH MH 77 AG AG AG AG BR 81 M1 M1 MH M1 M1 125 UBR UBR UBR BR UBR 127 RSA RSA RS RS RS |
| Table A.9: Cross Reference Chart |
Table A.9
Cross-Reference Chart for the US Model
Variable Eq. Used in Equation AA 89 2, 4, 7 AB 73 80 AF 70 19, 55, 80 AG 77 29, 56, 80 AG1 Exog 1, 2, 3 AG2 Exog 1, 2, 3 AG3 Exog 1, 2, 3 AH 66 80, 89 AR 75 80 AS 79 80 BF 55 19 BG 56 29 BO 22 73, 77, 125 BR 57 22, 73, 77, 125 CCB Exog 60, 61, 72, 82, 83 CCF 21 67 CCG Exog 67, 68, 76 CCH Exog 65, 67, 68 CCS Exog 67, 68, 77 CD 3 34, 51, 52, 58, 60, 61, 65, 116 CDA Exog 3 CF 68 25, 69 CG 25 66, 80 CN 2 34, 51, 52, 60, 61, 65, 116 COG Exog 60, 61, 76, 104 COS Exog 60, 61, 78, 110 CS 1 34, 51, 52, 60, 61, 65, 116 CUR 26 71, 77 D1G Exog 47, 90, 99 D1GM 90 126, 127, 128 D1S Exog 48, 91, 99 D1SM 91 126, 127, 128 D2G Exog 17, 49, 121 D2S Exog 17, 50, 121 D3G Exog 35, 36, 37, 51 D3S Exog 35, 36, 37, 52 D4G Exog 53, 126 D5G Exog 10, 54 D691 Exog 27 D692 Exog 27 D714 Exog 27 D721 Exog 27 D794823 Exog 30 D811824 Exog 21 D831834 Exog 21 DB Exog 64, 72, 99, 115 DD772 Exog 13, 14 DELD Exog 58 DELH Exog 59 DELK Exog 12, 92 DF 18 64, 69, 99, 115 DISB Exog 73, 80 DISBA Exog 70, 73 DISF Exog 70, 80 DISG Exog 77, 80 DISH Exog 66, 80 DISR Exog 75, 80 DISS Exog 79, 80 DRS Exog 64, 78, 99, 113, 115 E 85 86 EX Exog 33, 60, 61, 74 EXPG 106 107 EXPS 113 114 FA Exog 17, 26, 31 FIROW Exog 67, 68, 74, 129, 130 FIROWD Exog 130 FIUS Exog 67, 68, 74, 129, 130 FIUSD Exog 130 G1 Exog 57 GDP 82 84, 129 GDPD 84 123 GDPR 83 84, 122, 130 GNP 129 131 GNPD 131 - GNPR 130 131 HF 14 62, 95, 100, 118 HFF 100 15 HFS Exog 100 HG Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 95, 98, 104, 115, 126 HM Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 95, 98, 104, 115, 126 HN 62 43, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 115, 121, 126 HO 15 43, 53, 54, 62, 64, 67, 68, 115, 121, 126 HS Exog 43, 64, 78, 82, 83, 95, 98, 110, 115, 126 IBTG 51 34, 52, 61, 76, 82, 105 IBTS 52 34, 51, 61, 78, 82, 112 IGZ Exog 106 IHB Exog 60, 61, 72 IHF Exog 60, 61, 68 IHH 4 34, 59, 60, 61, 65 IHHA Exog 4 IKB Exog 60, 61, 72 IKF 12 21, 60, 61, 68, 92 IKFA Exog 12 IKG Exog 60, 61, 76 IKH Exog 60, 61, 65 IM 27 33, 60, 61, 74 INS Exog 65, 76 INTF 19 64, 67, 68, 88, 99, 115 INTG 29 64, 76, 88, 99, 106, 115 INTOTH Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115 INTROW 88 64, 67, 68, 99, 115 INTS Exog 64, 78, 99, 113, 115 ISZ Exog 113 IVA 20 67 IVF 117 - IVH Exog 60 IVVH Exog 61, 65 JF 13 14, 43, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 85, 95, 115, 118, JG Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 85, 95, 98, 104, 115, 12 JHMIN 94 13, 14 JJ 95 96, 97 JJP Exog 96, 97, 98 JJS 96 30 JM Exog 43, 64, 76, 82, 83, 85, 87, 95, 98, 104, 115 JS Exog 43, 64, 78, 82, 83, 85, 95, 98, 110, 115, 12 KD 58 3 KH 59 4, 89 KK 92 12 KKMIN 93 12 L1 5 86, 87 L2 6 86, 87 L3 7 86, 87 LAM Exog 94, 98 LM 8 85 M1 81 124 MB 71 57, 73 MDIF Exog 81 MF 17 70, 71, 81 MG Exog 71, 77 MH 9 66, 71, 81, 89 MR Exog 71, 75, 81 MRS Exog 68, 76 MS Exog 71, 79, 81 MUH Exog 93 P2554 Exog - PCD 37 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116 PCGDPD 122 - PCGDPR 123 30 PCM1 124 30 PCN 36 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116 PCS 35 34, 51, 52, 61, 65, 116 PD 33 12, 30, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42 PEX 32 33, 61, 74 PF 10 16, 17, 26, 27, 31, 119 PFA Exog 31 PG 40 61, 76, 104 PH 34 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 27, 89 PIEB Exog 60, 61, 72, 82, 83 PIEF 67 18, 49, 50, 121 PIEH Exog 64, 67, 68, 99 PIH 38 34, 61, 65, 68, 72 PIK 39 21, 61, 65, 68, 72, 76 PIM Exog 10, 27, 33, 61, 74 PIV 42 67, 82 POP 120 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 26, 27, 47, 48, 90, 91, POP1 Exog 5, 120 POP2 Exog 6, 120 POP3 Exog 7, 120 PROD 118 - PS 41 61, 78, 110 PSI1 Exog 32 PSI2 Exog 35 PSI3 Exog 36 PSI4 Exog 37 PSI5 Exog 38 PSI6 Exog 39 PSI7 Exog 40 PSI8 Exog 41 PSI9 Exog 42 PSI10 Exog 44 PSI11 Exog 45 PSI12 Exog 46 PSI13 Exog 83 PSI14 Exog 88 PUG 104 106 PUS 110 113 PX 31 20, 32, 33, 61, 72, 82, 119 Q Exog 75, 77 RB 23 12, 19, 25, 29 RD Exog 22 RECG 105 107 RECS 112 114 RET Exog 65, 78 RM 24 128 RMA 12 82, 3, 4, 27 RNT Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115 RS 30 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 29, 127 RSA 130 1, 9, 26 SB 72 73 SF 69 70 SG 76 77 SGP 107 - SH 65 66 SHRPIE 121 - SIFG 54 67, 68, 76, 103 SIFS Exog 67, 68, 78, 109 SIG 103 105 SIGG Exog 43, 64, 76, 103, 115, 126 SIHG 53 65, 76, 103, 115 SIHS Exog 65, 78, 109, 115 SIS 109 112 SISS Exog 43, 64, 78, 109, 115, 126 SR 74 75 SRZ 116 - SS 78 79 SSP 114 - STAT Exog 67, 70, 80 STATP Exog 83 SUBG Exog 67, 68, 76, 106 SUBS Exog 67, 68, 78, 113 SUR Exog 72, 76 T Exog 5, 7, 13, 14, 16 TAUG Exog 47, 90, 99 TAUS Exog 48, 91, 99 TBG Exog 72, 76, 102 TBS Exog 72, 78, 108 TCG 102 105 TCS 108 112 TFA Exog 101, 102, 115 TFG 49 18, 25, 69, 76, 102 TFS 50 18, 25, 49, 69, 78, 108 THG 47 65, 76, 101, 115 THS 48 65, 78, 112, 115 TI Exog 29 TPG 101 105 TRFH Exog 64, 67, 68, 99, 115 TRFR Exog 67, 68, 74 TRGH Exog 65, 76, 99, 106, 115 TRGR Exog 74, 76, 106 TRGS Exog 76, 78, 106, 112 TRHR Exog 65, 74, 115 TRRSH 111 113 TRSH Exog 65, 78, 99, 111, 115 TXCR Exog 12 U 86 28, 87 UB 28 65, 78, 99, 111, 115 UBR 128 - UR 87 - V 63 11, 20, 67, 82, 117 WA 126 5, 6, 7, 8 WF 16 10, 28, 43, 44, 45, 46, 53, 54, 64, 67, 68, 11 WG 44 43, 64, 76, 82, 104, 115, 126 WH 43 - WLDG Exog 82, 104, 106 WLDS Exog 82, 110, 113 WM 45 43, 64, 76, 82, 104, 115, 126 WR 119 - WS 46 43, 64, 78, 82, 110, 115, 126 X 60 11, 17, 26, 31, 33, 63 XX 61 67, 68, 82 Y 11 10, 12, 13, 14, 63, 83, 93, 94, 118 YD 115 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 27, 116 YNL 99 - YS 98 10 YT 64 47, 48, 65, 90, 91, 99 Z 97 5, 6, 7, 8 |