US Forecast: April 28, 2000
Forecast Period

2000:2--2004:4 (20 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 27, 2000.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2000:1. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. Since the November 3, 1998, version the NIPA data have been completely revised, and the revised data have been used. A few specification changes were made in the process of updating the model using the revised data. The following is a list of the changes that have been made from the November 3, 1998, version. (No specification changes were made for the current version, April 28, 2000, from the previous version, January 29, 2000.)

  1. Equation 1 (CS, service consumption): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on service consumption. This change began with the July 30, 1999, version.
  2. Equation 3 (CD, durable expenditures): The lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. This change began with the May 1, 1999, version.
  3. Equation 5 (L1, labor force--men 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  4. Equation 6 (L2, labor force--women 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  5. Equation 7 (L3, labor force--all others 16+): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999.
  6. Equation 8 (LM, number of moonlighters): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  7. Equation 10 (PF, private nonfarm price deflator): The gap variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  8. Equation 12 (KK, stock of capital): This equation replaces the old equation 12, which explained IKF, nonresidential fixed investment. IKF is now explained by the identity 92, which before determined KK. Identity 92 now is: IKF = KK - (1 - DELK)*KK-1. The new equation 12 has on the left hand side logKK and on the right hand side logKK-1, logKK-2, logY, logY-1, logY-2, logY-3, logY-4, logY-5, and RB*(1-D2G-D2S). This change began with the November 5, 1999, version. (Equation 12 for the January 30, 1999, May 1, 1999, and July 30, 1999, versions of the model differed from the equation in the November 3, 1998, version in that the interest rate variable was dropped.)
  9. Equation 21 (CCF, capital consumption of the firm sector): This equation is now estimated under the assumption of first order serial correlation of the error term. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  10. Equation 27 (IM, imports): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on imports. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  11. Equation 30 (RS, three month Treasury bill rate): The variable JJS has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. The variable PCGDPR (percentage change in real GDP) has been replaced by the change in UR. The first change began with the November 5, 1999, version, and the second change began with the January 29, 2000, version.
  12. Equation 89 (AA, total net wealth): This identity is now: AA = (AH + MH)/PH + (PIH*KH)/PH. This change allows capital gains on housing to affect AA. PIH*KH is an estimate of the nominal value of the housing stock. When housing prices increase faster than the overall price level, PIH increases relative to PH, and so (PIH*KH)/PH increases. Before the second term was only KH, which was in effect multiplying KH by PH instead of PIH. This change began with the January 29, 2000, version.

Some of the above changes have lessened the reliance of the model on peak to peak interpolations. Variables Z, JJS, and the output gap variable have been replaced by UR. This means that the variables JJ, JJP, JJS, YS, and Z are no longer needed in the model. UR and JHMIN are now the only two capacity-like variables in the model. JJP had been created by peak to peak interpolations of JJ. This change also eliminates equations 95-98. In addition, the excess capital variable is no longer used in equation 12, and this means that variables EXKK and MUH are no longer needed in the model. MUH had been created by peak to peak interpolations of Y/KK. This change eliminates equation 93. All these variables and equations have been retained in the software, but they play no role in the solution of the model.

See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

To put in perspective the current assumptions that have been made about fiscal policy, it may be helpful to review an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996: An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that was eventually worked out by the Democrats and Republicans was closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts were not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2000:1.

                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast         Clinton          Actual     
          Assumptions         Plan       2000:1-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.3       
COG           2.0            -4.8             0.0       
JG            0.0            -4.8            -1.0       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             5.5       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             5.5       
COS           3.0             1.0             6.6       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 

Comparing the Clinton plan to the actual outcome so far, the plan was exactly right transfer payments (TRGH), but way off for purchases of goods (COG) and federal civilian jobs (JG). The current forecast assumptions about the growth of COG and JG in the future are closer to the historical values than they are to the original Clinton plan values.

It is assumed for the current forecast that all tax rates remain unchanged.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) for the remaining three quarters of 2000 are 5.4, 3.8, and 2.4. The growth rate is thus forecast to remain high in the second quarter of 2000 and to be fairly large in the third quarter. The unemployment rate falls to 3.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2000. Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises substantially. It is predicted to be 3.5 percent in the second quarter, 3.6 percent in the third, and 3.7 percent in the fourth. The Fed is predicted (through the interest rate rule) to increase the bill rate (RS) to 6.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2000, which is in response to the lower unemployment rate and higher inflation rate. The household saving rate (variable SRZ in the model) is close to zero throughout the forecast period. The federal government budget surplus (SGP) is forecast to be between \$203.6 and \$268.3 billion throughout the forecast period. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be large throughout the period (over \$400 billion for most of the period).

After 2000 the growth rate slows to about 2 percent, the unemployment rate gradually rises, and the inflation rate gradually falls. In general, this is a forecast of a soft landing. Inflation increases in 2000, but the Fed cuts it off without too much harm. There are two main uncertainties in this story. The first concerns inflation. The unemployment rate enters linearly in the price equation (equation 10), but at some point one would expect to see large (i.e., nonlinear) price increases in response to a falling unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this nonlinearity, and so there are no nonlinear effects in the model. It could thus be that inflation will be even worse in the future than the model is predicting if the economy is close to the point where the price response is nonlinear. This is especially likely if the unemployment rate does fall to 3.3 percent, as it is predicted to do. The second main uncertainty concerns the stock market. There is a stock price equation in the model (equation 25, explaining CG), but it cannot pick up booms and crashes. The equation is predicting that stock prices will grow modestly in the future. If, on the other hand, inflation increases, the Fed tightens, and the stock market crashes, the effect on the economy through the wealth effect could be substantial. If you want to see this, you can run an experiment in which you crash the stock market (see Chapter 7 of The US Model Workbook for how to do this). You will see that a large sustained crash leads to a recession even if you assume that the Fed substantially lowers the interest rate in response to the crash. In other words, the model has the property that the Fed does not have the power to prevent a recession if there is a large crash.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2004:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the rosy government budget picture. For example, there is currently considerable uncertainty about possible future tax cuts, and you can experiment with alternative tax-cut plans. Remember that the current forecast assumes that there are no tax cuts.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to what is happening in the economy?

Given the above discussion about nonlinearities and inflation, you may want to experiment with the price equation (equation 10). Will inflation be higher than predicted because of the very low unemployment rates?

Related to the inflation question, the current forecast is based on the assumption that the price of imports (PIM) grows at a rate of 3 percent per year throughout the forecast period. A strong dollar helps keep PIM down, but oil price increases push it up. It may be that the assumption of 3 percent is too optimistic, and you may want to experiment with higher values. This will, of course, make inflation even worse in the future.

Finally, as discussed above, you may want to crash the stock market.

US Forecast Tables: April 28, 2000
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19961 7676.4 2.9 3018.8 3.6 1553.9 2.4 601.7 4.1 19962 7802.9 6.8 3039.2 2.7 1569.9 4.2 620.4 13.0 19963 7841.9 2.0 3057.7 2.5 1578.6 2.2 618.1 -1.5 19964 7931.3 4.6 3072.2 1.9 1593.9 3.9 625.7 5.0 19971 8018.7 4.5 3098.2 3.4 1609.0 3.8 642.1 10.9 19972 8115.4 4.9 3121.3 3.0 1608.2 -0.2 639.7 -1.5 19973 8192.2 3.8 3153.5 4.2 1630.7 5.7 669.7 20.1 19974 8253.2 3.0 3188.1 4.5 1631.8 0.3 678.0 5.1 19981 8391.1 6.9 3217.2 3.7 1654.9 5.8 704.9 16.8 19982 8436.3 2.2 3255.6 4.9 1681.9 6.7 723.9 11.2 19983 8515.7 3.8 3293.3 4.7 1692.0 2.4 731.2 4.1 19984 8639.5 5.9 3305.9 1.5 1712.6 5.0 766.0 20.4 19991 8717.6 3.7 3339.8 4.2 1749.5 8.9 788.8 12.4 19992 8758.3 1.9 3382.3 5.2 1763.7 3.3 806.1 9.1 19993 8879.8 5.7 3423.4 4.9 1779.3 3.6 821.2 7.7 19994 9037.2 7.3 3454.7 3.7 1812.0 7.6 846.7 13.0 20001 9156.6 5.4 3500.6 5.4 1842.4 6.9 898.1 26.6 20002 9276.7 5.4 3537.9 4.3 1865.0 5.0 911.8 6.2 20003 9363.4 3.8 3573.3 4.1 1882.0 3.7 921.9 4.5 20004 9418.9 2.4 3608.3 4.0 1895.5 2.9 928.3 2.8 20011 9472.1 2.3 3641.1 3.7 1906.1 2.3 931.1 1.2 20012 9517.6 1.9 3671.8 3.4 1914.5 1.8 931.1 0.0 20013 9556.4 1.6 3700.6 3.2 1921.4 1.4 928.9 -1.0 20014 9595.4 1.6 3727.6 2.9 1927.2 1.2 925.1 -1.6 20021 9634.8 1.7 3753.1 2.8 1932.3 1.1 920.5 -2.0 20022 9675.7 1.7 3777.3 2.6 1937.2 1.0 915.5 -2.2 20023 9719.5 1.8 3800.6 2.5 1942.0 1.0 910.5 -2.2 20024 9765.9 1.9 3823.1 2.4 1946.8 1.0 905.9 -2.0 20031 9815.0 2.0 3844.9 2.3 1951.8 1.0 901.8 -1.8 20032 9866.7 2.1 3866.3 2.2 1957.1 1.1 898.3 -1.5 20033 9920.5 2.2 3887.4 2.2 1962.5 1.1 895.6 -1.2 20034 9976.2 2.3 3908.2 2.2 1968.2 1.2 893.6 -0.9 20041 10033.1 2.3 3928.8 2.1 1974.1 1.2 892.2 -0.6 20042 10091.2 2.3 3949.3 2.1 1980.2 1.2 891.5 -0.3 20043 10150.2 2.4 3969.7 2.1 1986.4 1.3 891.4 -0.1 20044 10209.9 2.4 3990.1 2.1 1992.9 1.3 891.8 0.2
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19961 266.2 12.3 734.2 14.2 5.6 921.1 10.8 19962 279.0 20.7 756.9 12.9 30.3 950.4 13.3 19963 278.4 -0.9 784.3 15.3 51.2 982.9 14.4 19964 275.5 -4.1 804.5 10.7 32.9 998.1 6.3 19971 279.3 5.6 822.8 9.4 51.5 1034.7 15.5 19972 282.4 4.6 844.8 11.1 93.1 1080.8 19.0 19973 283.0 0.8 880.1 17.8 59.2 1125.5 17.6 19974 287.4 6.4 887.4 3.4 72.7 1139.9 5.2 19981 296.8 13.8 947.9 30.2 107.3 1179.0 14.4 19982 306.4 13.6 978.1 13.4 43.1 1215.6 13.0 19983 312.3 7.9 978.0 -0.1 76.1 1231.0 5.2 19984 319.8 9.9 1016.7 16.8 70.7 1263.1 10.8 19991 329.6 12.8 1037.4 8.4 50.1 1300.9 12.5 19992 333.9 5.4 1056.4 7.5 14.0 1345.4 14.4 19993 328.9 -5.9 1086.7 12.0 38.0 1393.0 14.9 19994 330.4 1.8 1095.4 3.3 66.7 1422.3 8.7 20001 335.7 6.6 1149.5 21.3 31.1 1454.8 9.5 20002 329.7 -7.0 1179.3 10.8 71.4 1492.8 10.9 20003 323.5 -7.3 1209.1 10.5 83.1 1524.7 8.8 20004 317.2 -7.6 1234.1 8.5 69.8 1550.6 7.0 20011 310.8 -7.8 1253.7 6.5 62.9 1571.1 5.4 20012 304.7 -7.6 1269.4 5.1 54.2 1587.1 4.1 20013 299.2 -7.1 1280.3 3.5 44.5 1599.0 3.0 20014 294.4 -6.2 1288.2 2.5 38.3 1607.7 2.2 20021 290.5 -5.1 1294.6 2.0 33.2 1613.8 1.5 20022 287.6 -3.9 1299.8 1.6 29.5 1618.0 1.0 20023 285.7 -2.7 1304.3 1.4 27.8 1620.7 0.7 20024 284.7 -1.4 1308.8 1.4 27.2 1622.5 0.4 20031 284.5 -0.3 1313.3 1.4 27.4 1623.6 0.3 20032 284.9 0.6 1318.0 1.4 28.3 1624.3 0.2 20033 285.9 1.4 1322.9 1.5 29.5 1624.9 0.1 20034 287.3 2.0 1328.1 1.6 30.9 1625.3 0.1 20041 289.0 2.4 1333.4 1.6 32.3 1625.8 0.1 20042 290.9 2.7 1338.8 1.6 33.5 1626.3 0.1 20043 293.1 3.0 1344.3 1.6 34.7 1627.0 0.2 20044 295.3 3.1 1349.7 1.6 35.7 1627.7 0.2
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19961 2.5 2.2 4.5 2.2 19962 1.4 1.9 4.5 2.6 19963 1.9 1.7 3.3 1.5 19964 1.6 1.2 2.3 1.0 19971 2.8 4.3 2.2 -2.0 19972 1.7 2.1 3.2 1.1 19973 1.3 1.8 5.9 4.0 19974 1.2 1.4 5.5 4.0 19981 0.8 1.4 4.0 2.6 19982 1.2 1.1 6.9 5.7 19983 1.5 1.0 7.4 6.3 19984 1.0 -0.7 6.5 7.2 19991 2.0 2.7 4.8 2.0 19992 1.4 1.7 4.9 3.1 19993 1.1 0.9 3.2 2.3 19994 1.9 1.5 6.3 4.7 20001 2.7 2.6 2.9 0.2 20002 3.5 3.4 4.3 0.9 20003 3.6 3.6 4.5 0.9 20004 3.7 3.7 4.6 0.9 20011 3.7 3.7 4.6 0.9 20012 3.6 3.6 4.6 1.0 20013 3.5 3.5 4.6 1.0 20014 3.4 3.4 4.5 1.1 20021 3.3 3.2 4.4 1.1 20022 3.2 3.1 4.3 1.2 20023 3.1 3.0 4.3 1.2 20024 3.1 3.0 4.3 1.2 20031 3.0 2.9 4.2 1.3 20032 3.0 2.9 4.2 1.3 20033 3.0 2.9 4.2 1.3 20034 2.9 2.8 4.2 1.3 20041 2.9 2.8 4.2 1.3 20042 2.9 2.8 4.2 1.3 20043 2.9 2.8 4.2 1.4 20044 2.9 2.8 4.3 1.4
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1192.8 -2.6 68.1 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1196.8 1.4 69.3 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1214.8 6.2 68.8 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1205.0 -3.2 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1221.8 5.7 65.5 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1235.2 4.5 70.3 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1231.2 -1.3 71.6 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.7 6.1 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.9 4.3 73.4 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1272.6 3.1 72.0 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1285.2 4.0 75.4 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1311.4 8.4 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1319.2 2.4 73.3 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1321.3 0.6 74.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1339.0 5.5 74.0 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1404.3 21.0 90.3 20001 5.5 7.7 8.6 1390.0 -4.0 89.4 20002 5.9 7.8 8.7 1409.7 5.8 88.5 20003 6.3 8.0 8.9 1428.9 5.6 88.9 20004 6.6 8.1 9.1 1447.6 5.3 89.3 20011 6.7 8.2 9.2 1465.9 5.2 89.8 20012 6.8 8.3 9.3 1483.9 5.0 90.3 20013 6.8 8.4 9.4 1501.4 4.8 90.8 20014 6.8 8.4 9.5 1518.4 4.6 91.3 20021 6.8 8.5 9.5 1535.1 4.5 91.7 20022 6.8 8.5 9.6 1551.4 4.3 92.1 20023 6.7 8.6 9.6 1567.4 4.2 92.4 20024 6.7 8.6 9.6 1583.2 4.1 92.7 20031 6.6 8.6 9.6 1598.7 4.0 93.0 20032 6.6 8.6 9.6 1614.0 3.9 93.2 20033 6.5 8.6 9.6 1629.1 3.8 93.4 20034 6.4 8.6 9.5 1644.1 3.7 93.5 20041 6.4 8.6 9.5 1659.1 3.7 93.6 20042 6.3 8.5 9.5 1673.9 3.6 93.7 20043 6.3 8.5 9.4 1688.7 3.6 93.7 20044 6.2 8.5 9.4 1703.5 3.6 93.8
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19961 5.6 2.2 0.9 -0.6 2.1 1.0 7.4 19962 5.5 2.0 2.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.9 3.1 0.9 2.6 3.0 7.1 19964 5.3 1.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.8 7.2 19971 5.3 1.8 0.7 4.0 3.4 2.3 7.1 19972 5.0 0.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.4 6.8 19973 4.8 1.4 3.0 -0.8 1.3 1.9 6.6 19974 4.7 -0.3 -1.9 5.8 2.9 1.6 6.4 19981 4.7 0.6 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.2 6.4 19982 4.4 0.1 -0.8 1.2 2.5 1.1 6.1 19983 4.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.8 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 0.7 3.7 1.7 2.0 6.1 19991 4.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.3 2.4 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.9 -0.2 2.2 2.1 0.4 5.9 19993 4.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 2.2 1.0 5.9 19994 4.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 5.7 20001 4.1 1.9 3.0 4.9 2.5 3.2 5.7 20002 3.7 0.8 2.2 2.7 4.0 3.2 5.3 20003 3.4 0.8 2.2 2.7 3.9 3.0 4.9 20004 3.3 0.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 2.3 4.8 20011 3.3 0.9 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.0 4.7 20012 3.3 0.9 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.6 4.8 20013 3.5 0.9 2.2 2.6 1.8 1.4 5.0 20014 3.6 0.9 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.2 5.2 20021 3.7 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.2 5.5 20022 3.9 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.2 1.1 5.7 20023 4.0 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.2 5.9 20024 4.1 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.2 6.1 20031 4.2 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.2 6.3 20032 4.3 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.3 6.5 20033 4.4 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.3 6.6 20034 4.5 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.3 6.8 20041 4.6 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.4 6.9 20042 4.6 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.4 7.1 20043 4.7 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.4 7.2 20044 4.8 0.9 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.4 7.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19961 2135.7 544.5 14.2 5.3 3.0 90.7 -176.4 16.9 19962 1578.0 556.2 8.9 4.7 4.3 106.8 -137.0 27.2 19963 1042.3 558.8 1.9 5.2 0.1 134.3 -130.1 22.2 19964 3026.6 585.0 20.1 4.8 2.2 111.0 -103.9 19.4 19971 643.8 586.8 1.2 4.6 -0.5 117.3 -87.3 25.7 19972 6456.5 604.5 12.6 5.1 2.3 103.8 -63.1 23.7 19973 3771.4 635.8 22.4 4.3 2.5 126.7 -27.8 30.8 19974 1625.6 619.6 -9.8 4.5 0.4 147.0 -16.7 29.7 19981 6813.2 594.0 -15.5 4.2 3.8 152.1 24.8 32.0 19982 604.1 599.7 3.9 3.7 0.5 191.2 43.7 30.9 19983 -6348.3 590.5 -6.0 3.7 3.6 232.7 59.6 50.0 19984 8940.7 578.0 -8.2 3.7 3.9 230.0 59.8 54.1 19991 2355.3 612.9 26.4 3.1 1.9 255.8 97.6 48.6 19992 4153.7 637.3 16.9 2.6 0.6 303.7 118.2 37.7 19993 -2976.7 650.2 8.3 2.2 3.8 336.4 133.7 48.8 19994 11907.1 661.5 7.1 1.9 5.5 378.2 112.3 68.9 20001 800.0 702.4 27.1 0.7 3.3 412.4 174.5 55.0 20002 411.3 760.5 37.4 0.0 1.7 437.5 203.6 64.7 20003 387.1 761.5 0.5 -0.2 0.4 456.5 221.8 72.4 20004 409.1 744.5 -8.6 -0.4 -0.3 469.5 233.7 76.7 20011 426.0 735.6 -4.7 -0.5 0.1 477.3 239.1 80.4 20012 441.1 726.7 -4.8 -0.6 0.2 480.7 242.2 82.3 20013 455.3 717.6 -4.9 -0.7 0.3 480.2 243.7 82.8 20014 467.1 712.7 -2.7 -0.7 0.6 476.6 245.0 82.5 20021 479.2 710.0 -1.5 -0.7 0.8 470.4 245.2 81.8 20022 490.6 710.1 0.1 -0.7 0.9 462.3 244.9 80.8 20023 499.5 713.4 1.9 -0.6 1.1 452.6 244.9 79.7 20024 507.2 719.4 3.4 -0.5 1.2 441.8 245.0 78.8 20031 514.2 727.6 4.7 -0.4 1.3 430.1 245.4 78.0 20032 520.3 737.9 5.8 -0.3 1.4 417.8 246.1 77.4 20033 525.5 749.7 6.5 -0.2 1.4 404.9 247.7 77.0 20034 530.1 762.5 7.0 -0.1 1.5 391.6 250.4 76.8 20041 534.3 776.2 7.4 0.0 1.5 377.9 254.3 76.7 20042 538.6 790.8 7.7 0.1 1.5 363.9 258.5 76.7 20043 542.4 806.0 7.9 0.2 1.5 349.5 262.8 76.9 20044 546.3 822.2 8.3 0.3 1.5 334.9 268.3 77.1
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19961 21.5 2.9 2.3 670.0 11.2 -1.6 19962 14.3 7.4 6.8 676.1 3.7 -1.7 19963 -14.4 3.3 3.2 680.2 2.4 -4.4 19964 2.0 11.4 28.7 685.9 3.4 0.6 19971 -5.4 9.9 8.3 702.6 10.1 -4.5 19972 24.5 5.5 15.9 705.6 1.7 -7.3 19973 -2.1 7.6 11.3 708.3 1.5 -2.5 19974 -4.8 4.8 1.7 709.8 0.8 -2.5 19981 -20.8 8.9 -1.5 716.8 4.0 -10.8 19982 28.0 5.0 -3.9 718.0 0.7 -4.1 19983 -5.6 7.4 -1.6 721.9 2.2 -4.6 19984 8.7 2.8 16.3 723.5 0.9 -0.3 19991 -0.2 20.0 -5.5 736.6 7.4 -3.0 19992 6.5 -1.9 4.0 740.5 2.1 5.2 19993 8.9 7.8 11.5 746.4 3.2 6.2 19994 32.3 14.5 10.1 752.4 3.3 4.9 20001 -31.4 17.6 -0.2 766.7 7.8 5.6 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 776.1 5.0 3.0 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 785.6 5.0 3.0 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 795.3 5.0 3.0 20011 2.0 3.0 5.0 810.7 8.0 3.0 20012 2.0 3.0 5.0 826.5 8.0 3.0 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 842.5 8.0 3.0 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 858.9 8.0 3.0 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 875.6 8.0 3.0 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 892.6 8.0 3.0 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 909.9 8.0 3.0 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 927.6 8.0 3.0 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 945.6 8.0 3.0 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 964.0 8.0 3.0 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 982.7 8.0 3.0 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1001.8 8.0 3.0 20041 2.0 3.0 5.0 1021.3 8.0 3.0 20042 2.0 3.0 5.0 1041.1 8.0 3.0 20043 2.0 3.0 5.0 1061.3 8.0 3.0 20044 2.0 3.0 5.0 1082.0 8.0 3.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1883.1 908.0 222.4 101.5 651.2 19994 1922.3 922.7 236.7 105.0 657.9 20001 1961.1 935.6 246.0 107.7 671.8 20002 2007.4 953.3 259.3 109.8 685.0 20003 2045.7 976.3 259.6 111.9 697.9 20004 2075.6 996.7 255.7 113.8 709.4 20011 2105.2 1015.6 253.6 115.7 720.3 20012 2132.7 1033.3 251.6 117.4 730.4 20013 2157.9 1049.5 249.5 119.0 739.9 20014 2182.9 1065.0 248.4 120.5 749.1 20021 2207.9 1080.2 247.8 121.9 758.0 20022 2233.2 1095.3 247.8 123.3 766.8 20023 2259.3 1110.3 248.6 124.7 775.6 20024 2286.2 1125.6 249.9 126.1 784.6 20031 2314.1 1141.1 251.8 127.5 793.7 20032 2343.0 1157.0 254.2 128.8 803.0 20033 2372.9 1173.2 256.9 130.2 812.6 20034 2403.4 1189.7 259.8 131.6 822.3 20041 2434.6 1206.4 262.9 133.1 832.3 20042 2466.7 1223.5 266.2 134.6 842.4 20043 2499.5 1241.0 269.7 136.0 852.8 20044 2532.9 1258.6 273.4 137.6 863.4
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19961 1623.4 441.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1749.4 475.0 746.4 8.5 230.6 259.9 29.0 133.7 19994 1810.0 491.9 752.4 17.7 235.6 260.6 51.8 112.3 20001 1786.6 482.5 766.7 6.6 231.9 263.9 35.0 174.5 20002 1803.8 488.1 776.1 6.6 235.2 262.8 35.0 203.6 20003 1823.8 494.1 785.6 6.6 238.5 264.0 35.0 221.8 20004 1841.9 500.2 795.3 6.6 241.9 262.9 35.0 233.7 20011 1866.1 506.4 810.7 6.6 246.6 260.7 35.0 239.1 20012 1890.5 512.7 826.5 6.6 251.4 258.3 35.0 242.2 20013 1914.2 518.9 842.5 6.6 256.3 254.9 35.0 243.7 20014 1937.9 525.0 858.9 6.6 261.3 251.1 35.0 245.0 20021 1962.6 531.2 875.6 6.6 266.3 248.0 35.0 245.2 20022 1988.3 537.2 892.6 6.6 271.5 245.4 35.0 244.9 20023 2014.4 543.3 909.9 6.6 276.8 242.8 35.0 244.9 20024 2041.2 549.3 927.6 6.6 282.2 240.5 35.0 245.0 20031 2068.7 555.4 945.6 6.6 287.7 238.4 35.0 245.4 20032 2096.9 561.5 964.0 6.6 293.2 236.6 35.0 246.1 20033 2125.2 567.6 982.7 6.6 298.9 234.3 35.0 247.7 20034 2153.0 573.8 1001.8 6.6 304.7 231.0 35.0 250.4 20041 2180.3 580.1 1021.3 6.6 310.7 226.7 35.0 254.3 20042 2208.2 586.4 1041.1 6.6 316.7 222.4 35.0 258.5 20043 2236.7 592.9 1061.3 6.6 322.9 218.0 35.0 262.8 20044 2264.6 599.4 1082.0 6.6 329.1 212.6 35.0 268.3
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1148.0 252.4 37.0 616.8 11.2 230.6 19994 1185.9 261.1 39.1 638.6 11.5 235.6 20001 1194.1 263.5 40.6 646.2 11.9 231.9 20002 1218.0 268.7 42.8 659.1 12.1 235.2 20003 1240.6 275.5 42.9 671.3 12.4 238.5 20004 1261.3 281.5 42.2 683.0 12.6 241.9 20011 1282.4 287.0 41.9 693.9 12.9 246.6 20012 1302.5 292.2 41.6 704.2 13.1 251.4 20013 1321.7 297.0 41.2 713.8 13.4 256.3 20014 1340.4 301.5 41.0 722.9 13.7 261.3 20021 1358.8 306.0 40.9 731.6 13.9 266.3 20022 1377.1 310.4 40.9 740.0 14.2 271.5 20023 1395.5 314.9 41.1 748.3 14.5 276.8 20024 1414.1 319.3 41.3 756.5 14.7 282.2 20031 1432.9 323.9 41.6 764.7 15.0 287.7 20032 1452.1 328.6 42.0 773.0 15.3 293.2 20033 1471.7 333.4 42.4 781.4 15.6 298.9 20034 1491.6 338.2 42.9 789.9 15.8 304.7 20041 1511.9 343.1 43.4 798.5 16.1 310.7 20042 1532.6 348.2 44.0 807.3 16.4 316.7 20043 1553.7 353.4 44.6 816.3 16.7 322.9 20044 1575.2 358.6 45.2 825.4 17.0 329.1
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 37.7 19993 1099.2 866.5 245.3 -0.6 0.3 -11.7 48.8 19994 1117.0 882.4 247.8 -0.6 0.4 -12.2 68.9 20001 1139.1 902.3 250.2 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 55.0 20002 1153.3 915.3 251.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 64.7 20003 1168.2 929.1 252.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 72.4 20004 1184.6 943.3 254.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 76.7 20011 1202.0 957.7 257.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 80.4 20012 1220.2 972.2 261.4 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 82.3 20013 1238.9 986.7 265.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 82.8 20014 1257.9 1001.3 270.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 82.5 20021 1277.0 1015.8 274.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 81.8 20022 1296.4 1030.3 279.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 80.8 20023 1315.8 1044.8 284.4 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 79.7 20024 1335.3 1059.4 289.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 78.8 20031 1354.9 1074.1 294.2 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 78.0 20032 1374.7 1089.0 299.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 77.4 20033 1394.6 1104.0 304.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 77.0 20034 1414.8 1119.2 309.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 76.8 20041 1435.2 1134.6 314.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 76.7 20042 1455.9 1150.2 319.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 76.7 20043 1476.9 1166.1 324.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 76.9 20044 1498.1 1182.3 329.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 77.1
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19961 248.9 44.4 3.0 90.7 -270.4 -116.6 19962 177.7 23.7 4.4 106.8 -189.2 -123.4 19963 168.3 -36.8 -0.3 134.3 -170.6 -94.9 19964 178.0 -13.6 -8.0 111.0 -146.6 -120.8 19971 158.0 -47.7 8.0 117.3 -116.6 -119.0 19972 215.1 -85.1 11.8 103.8 -96.5 -149.1 19973 182.2 -107.4 15.2 126.7 -72.4 -144.3 19974 160.8 -152.4 18.6 147.0 -57.3 -116.7 19981 123.7 -171.0 19.1 152.1 -1.3 -122.6 19982 85.3 -182.1 19.2 191.2 0.4 -114.0 19983 78.0 -253.9 20.4 232.7 14.5 -91.7 19984 78.3 -248.8 18.8 230.0 10.1 -88.4 19991 20.9 -266.7 38.8 255.8 58.8 -107.5 19992 -6.0 -280.0 28.3 303.7 69.3 -115.3 19993 -40.4 -319.0 39.1 336.4 86.4 -102.5 19994 -55.1 -330.2 44.4 378.2 54.1 -91.3 20001 -141.6 -313.2 39.9 412.4 121.3 -118.8 20002 -180.0 -338.5 42.3 437.5 149.2 -110.6 20003 -187.9 -375.2 44.8 456.5 166.2 -104.4 20004 -200.5 -391.6 47.3 469.5 176.8 -101.5 20011 -205.1 -403.8 49.9 477.3 181.0 -99.4 20012 -207.5 -409.7 52.6 480.7 182.8 -98.9 20013 -208.9 -409.6 55.1 480.2 183.1 -99.9 20014 -208.4 -407.2 57.7 476.6 183.1 -101.8 20021 -205.4 -403.1 60.2 470.4 182.0 -104.1 20022 -201.1 -397.5 62.7 462.3 180.4 -106.7 20023 -196.0 -391.4 65.2 452.6 179.0 -109.4 20024 -190.2 -385.0 67.6 441.8 177.8 -112.0 20031 -184.2 -378.5 70.1 430.1 176.8 -114.4 20032 -178.1 -371.9 72.6 417.8 176.2 -116.7 20033 -172.3 -365.3 75.1 404.9 176.4 -118.7 20034 -167.2 -359.0 77.6 391.6 177.7 -120.7 20041 -162.9 -352.8 80.2 377.9 180.2 -122.5 20042 -158.9 -346.3 82.8 363.9 182.8 -124.3 20043 -155.1 -339.7 85.4 349.5 185.7 -125.9 20044 -152.5 -332.7 88.1 334.9 189.7 -127.5 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7629.6 5130.4 606.4 1539.6 2984.4 19962 7782.7 5218.1 621.3 1569.4 3027.4 19963 7859.2 5263.7 616.7 1578.8 3068.2 19964 7981.3 5337.8 621.5 1608.4 3107.9 19971 8125.9 5430.8 636.1 1630.5 3164.2 19972 8259.5 5466.3 627.8 1627.1 3211.4 19973 8364.7 5569.2 651.9 1652.3 3265.0 19974 8453.0 5631.4 655.8 1657.1 3318.5 19981 8610.6 5714.7 679.2 1674.6 3360.9 19982 8683.7 5816.2 693.9 1701.2 3421.1 19983 8798.0 5889.6 696.9 1716.6 3476.1 19984 8947.5 5973.7 722.8 1742.9 3508.0 19991 9072.7 6090.8 739.0 1787.8 3564.0 19992 9146.2 6200.7 751.6 1824.8 3624.3 19993 9297.9 6303.7 761.8 1853.9 3688.0 19994 9507.8 6434.1 782.1 1905.8 3746.2 20001 9697.2 6615.3 825.5 1963.3 3826.5 20002 9909.4 6747.3 844.9 2003.6 3898.8 20003 10091.6 6872.4 861.6 2039.2 3971.6 20004 10242.9 6992.2 875.2 2071.6 4045.4 20011 10393.9 7104.1 885.4 2101.2 4117.5 20012 10536.9 7209.0 892.9 2128.5 4187.6 20013 10671.8 7307.4 898.2 2153.8 4255.4 20014 10805.8 7400.5 901.8 2177.8 4321.0 20021 10939.1 7489.6 904.3 2200.7 4384.6 20022 11073.0 7576.1 906.2 2223.1 4446.7 20023 11209.4 7660.8 908.1 2245.3 4507.5 20024 11348.6 7744.9 910.1 2267.4 4567.4 20031 11490.9 7828.9 912.5 2289.7 4626.7 20032 11636.7 7913.6 915.5 2312.3 4685.8 20033 11785.8 7999.4 919.2 2335.2 4744.9 20034 11938.1 8086.4 923.7 2358.6 4804.1 20041 12093.3 8174.8 928.8 2382.4 4863.6 20042 12251.4 8264.8 934.6 2406.6 4923.6 20043 12412.2 8356.5 941.1 2431.3 4984.1 20044 12575.5 8449.7 948.1 2456.5 5045.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1172.4 1165.6 865.1 300.5 6.8 19962 1231.5 1201.7 885.4 316.3 29.8 19963 1282.6 1232.6 913.6 319.0 50.0 19964 1284.4 1250.9 933.7 317.2 33.5 19971 1327.0 1274.1 952.7 321.4 52.9 19972 1392.1 1299.5 972.7 326.8 92.6 19973 1396.0 1338.4 1007.7 330.7 57.6 19974 1419.6 1349.4 1011.4 338.0 70.2 19981 1514.3 1415.4 1065.9 349.5 98.9 19982 1495.0 1454.2 1090.8 363.4 40.8 19983 1535.4 1461.7 1087.2 374.5 73.7 19984 1580.3 1508.9 1121.4 387.5 71.4 19991 1594.3 1543.3 1139.9 403.4 51.0 19992 1585.4 1567.8 1155.4 412.4 17.6 19993 1635.1 1594.3 1181.6 412.7 40.8 19994 1675.8 1606.7 1190.0 416.7 69.1 20001 1709.8 1675.4 1248.6 426.8 34.4 20002 1792.2 1712.6 1288.5 424.1 79.6 20003 1844.3 1750.8 1329.6 421.2 93.4 20004 1864.1 1784.9 1366.7 418.2 79.2 20011 1885.9 1814.0 1399.0 415.0 71.9 20012 1902.1 1839.6 1427.6 412.0 62.5 20013 1912.9 1861.1 1451.6 409.5 51.8 20014 1924.9 1880.0 1472.3 407.7 44.9 20021 1937.6 1898.4 1491.5 406.9 39.2 20022 1951.7 1916.6 1509.4 407.2 35.1 20023 1968.4 1935.1 1526.6 408.5 33.3 20024 1987.3 1954.5 1543.6 410.9 32.8 20031 2008.2 1974.9 1560.7 414.2 33.3 20032 2031.1 1996.4 1578.0 418.3 34.7 20033 2055.4 2019.0 1595.8 423.2 36.4 20034 2080.9 2042.5 1613.9 428.7 38.4 20041 2107.3 2066.8 1632.3 434.5 40.4 20042 2134.1 2091.8 1651.0 440.7 42.3 20043 2161.3 2117.3 1670.0 447.3 44.0 20044 2188.7 2143.1 1689.1 454.0 45.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19961 -75.8 853.3 929.1 1402.6 530.6 872.0 19962 -89.8 864.7 954.5 1422.9 537.2 885.7 19963 -110.5 865.6 976.1 1423.4 529.1 894.3 19964 -79.7 913.1 992.8 1438.8 529.4 909.4 19971 -87.7 929.6 1017.3 1455.8 530.2 925.6 19972 -77.5 965.3 1042.8 1478.6 543.0 935.6 19973 -90.6 988.6 1079.2 1490.1 540.9 949.2 19974 -97.4 988.6 1086.0 1499.4 537.1 962.3 19981 -117.4 974.3 1091.7 1499.0 526.1 972.9 19982 -153.9 960.1 1114.0 1526.4 542.2 984.2 19983 -165.7 949.1 1114.8 1538.7 539.7 999.0 19984 -161.3 981.8 1143.1 1554.8 546.7 1008.1 19991 -201.6 966.9 1168.5 1589.2 557.4 1031.8 19992 -245.8 978.2 1224.0 1605.9 561.6 1044.3 19993 -278.1 1008.5 1286.6 1637.2 569.8 1067.4 19994 -290.1 1039.5 1329.6 1688.0 593.6 1094.4 20001 -335.0 1043.7 1378.7 1707.1 579.2 1127.9 20002 -359.8 1065.4 1425.2 1729.7 586.0 1143.7 20003 -378.5 1088.0 1466.5 1753.4 593.2 1160.3 20004 -391.2 1111.2 1502.4 1777.8 600.5 1177.3 20011 -398.7 1135.0 1533.6 1802.5 608.0 1194.5 20012 -401.7 1159.0 1560.7 1827.4 615.5 1212.0 20013 -400.9 1183.2 1584.1 1852.4 622.9 1229.5 20014 -396.9 1207.5 1604.5 1877.3 630.4 1247.0 20021 -390.5 1232.1 1622.5 1902.3 637.8 1264.5 20022 -382.0 1256.8 1638.8 1927.2 645.2 1282.1 20023 -372.0 1281.7 1653.7 1952.2 652.5 1299.7 20024 -360.9 1307.0 1667.8 1977.3 659.9 1317.4 20031 -348.8 1332.5 1681.3 2002.6 667.3 1335.3 20032 -336.1 1358.4 1694.6 2028.1 674.8 1353.3 20033 -322.9 1384.8 1707.7 2053.9 682.3 1371.6 20034 -309.2 1411.6 1720.9 2080.0 689.9 1390.1 20041 -295.2 1438.9 1734.1 2106.4 697.6 1408.8 20042 -280.8 1466.8 1747.5 2133.2 705.4 1427.8 20043 -266.0 1495.2 1761.2 2160.4 713.3 1447.1 20044 -251.0 1524.1 1775.1 2188.0 721.3 1466.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7676.4 5174.4 601.7 1553.9 3018.8 19962 7802.9 5229.5 620.4 1569.9 3039.2 19963 7841.9 5254.4 618.1 1578.6 3057.7 19964 7931.3 5291.8 625.7 1593.9 3072.2 19971 8018.7 5349.3 642.1 1609.0 3098.2 19972 8115.4 5369.2 639.7 1608.2 3121.3 19973 8192.2 5453.9 669.7 1630.7 3153.5 19974 8253.2 5497.9 678.0 1631.8 3188.1 19981 8391.1 5577.0 704.9 1654.9 3217.2 19982 8436.3 5661.4 723.9 1681.9 3255.6 19983 8515.7 5716.5 731.2 1692.0 3293.3 19984 8639.5 5784.5 766.0 1712.6 3305.9 19991 8717.6 5878.1 788.8 1749.5 3339.8 19992 8758.3 5952.1 806.1 1763.7 3382.3 19993 8879.8 6023.9 821.2 1779.3 3423.4 19994 9037.2 6113.4 846.7 1812.0 3454.7 20001 9156.6 6241.1 898.1 1842.4 3500.6 20002 9276.7 6314.6 911.8 1865.0 3537.9 20003 9363.4 6377.1 921.9 1882.0 3573.3 20004 9418.9 6432.1 928.3 1895.5 3608.3 20011 9472.1 6478.3 931.1 1906.1 3641.1 20012 9517.6 6517.5 931.1 1914.5 3671.8 20013 9556.4 6550.9 928.9 1921.4 3700.6 20014 9595.4 6579.9 925.1 1927.2 3727.6 20021 9634.8 6605.9 920.5 1932.3 3753.1 20022 9675.7 6630.1 915.5 1937.2 3777.3 20023 9719.5 6653.1 910.5 1942.0 3800.6 20024 9765.9 6675.8 905.9 1946.8 3823.1 20031 9815.0 6698.6 901.8 1951.8 3844.9 20032 9866.7 6721.8 898.3 1957.1 3866.3 20033 9920.5 6745.6 895.6 1962.5 3887.4 20034 9976.2 6770.0 893.6 1968.2 3908.2 20041 10033.1 6795.1 892.2 1974.1 3928.8 20042 10091.2 6821.0 891.5 1980.2 3949.3 20043 10150.2 6847.6 891.4 1986.4 3969.7 20044 10209.9 6874.7 891.8 1992.9 3990.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1170.8 1165.2 861.6 303.6 5.6 19962 1234.0 1203.7 885.6 318.1 30.3 19963 1282.8 1231.6 914.3 317.3 51.2 19964 1283.1 1250.2 936.2 314.0 32.9 19971 1325.7 1274.2 957.9 316.3 51.5 19972 1393.9 1300.8 980.8 320.0 93.1 19973 1397.7 1338.5 1018.0 320.5 59.2 19974 1424.5 1351.8 1026.1 325.7 72.7 19981 1532.4 1425.1 1088.6 336.5 107.3 19982 1510.7 1467.6 1120.2 347.4 43.1 19983 1550.6 1474.5 1120.3 354.2 76.1 19984 1594.1 1523.4 1160.8 362.6 70.7 19991 1606.5 1556.4 1182.7 373.7 50.1 19992 1595.7 1581.7 1202.9 378.8 14.0 19993 1647.4 1609.4 1234.3 375.1 38.0 19994 1686.7 1620.0 1243.2 376.8 66.7 20001 1718.6 1687.5 1304.6 382.9 31.1 20002 1784.1 1712.7 1335.4 377.4 71.4 20003 1821.0 1737.9 1366.2 371.7 83.1 20004 1827.9 1758.1 1392.3 365.8 69.8 20011 1835.7 1772.9 1413.0 359.9 62.9 20012 1838.2 1784.0 1429.7 354.3 54.2 20013 1835.5 1791.0 1441.8 349.2 44.5 20014 1833.8 1795.6 1450.6 344.9 38.3 20021 1832.9 1799.7 1458.1 341.6 33.2 20022 1833.1 1803.6 1464.4 339.2 29.5 20023 1835.7 1807.9 1470.1 337.8 27.8 20024 1840.1 1812.9 1475.7 337.3 27.2 20031 1846.2 1818.8 1481.3 337.5 27.4 20032 1853.9 1825.6 1487.1 338.5 28.3 20033 1862.7 1833.2 1493.2 340.0 29.5 20034 1872.3 1841.5 1499.5 342.0 30.9 20041 1882.5 1850.2 1506.0 344.2 32.3 20042 1892.8 1859.2 1512.6 346.7 33.5 20043 1903.2 1868.5 1519.2 349.4 34.7 20044 1913.5 1877.9 1525.7 352.1 35.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19961 -75.0 846.1 921.1 1404.8 19962 -90.3 860.1 950.4 1430.4 19963 -115.9 867.0 982.9 1422.0 19964 -74.6 923.5 998.1 1430.6 19971 -92.6 942.1 1034.7 1436.0 19972 -103.2 977.6 1080.8 1455.8 19973 -121.3 1004.2 1125.5 1461.7 19974 -131.5 1008.4 1139.9 1461.3 19981 -174.5 1004.5 1179.0 1457.4 19982 -221.1 994.5 1215.6 1478.9 19983 -240.4 990.6 1231.0 1483.7 19984 -234.4 1028.7 1263.1 1494.5 19991 -286.6 1014.3 1300.9 1513.0 19992 -321.1 1024.3 1345.4 1518.1 19993 -340.4 1052.6 1393.0 1535.0 19994 -344.1 1078.2 1422.3 1569.4 20001 -377.1 1077.7 1454.8 1564.6 20002 -401.8 1090.9 1492.8 1570.4 20003 -420.4 1104.3 1524.7 1576.3 20004 -432.7 1117.9 1550.6 1582.2 20011 -439.6 1131.6 1571.1 1588.2 20012 -441.6 1145.5 1587.1 1594.1 20013 -439.5 1159.5 1599.0 1600.1 20014 -433.9 1173.8 1607.7 1606.2 20021 -425.6 1188.2 1613.8 1612.3 20022 -415.2 1202.7 1618.0 1618.4 20023 -403.2 1217.5 1620.7 1624.5 20024 -390.0 1232.4 1622.5 1630.7 20031 -376.0 1247.6 1623.6 1636.8 20032 -361.4 1262.9 1624.3 1643.1 20033 -346.5 1278.4 1624.9 1649.3 20034 -331.3 1294.1 1625.3 1655.6 20041 -315.8 1310.0 1625.8 1662.0 20042 -300.3 1326.0 1626.3 1668.3 20043 -284.7 1342.3 1627.0 1674.7 20044 -268.9 1358.8 1627.7 1681.2
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1883.1 908.0 222.4 101.5 651.2 19994 1922.3 922.7 236.7 105.0 657.9 20001 1961.1 935.6 246.0 107.7 671.8 20002 2007.4 953.3 259.3 109.8 685.0 20003 2045.7 976.3 259.6 111.9 697.9 20004 2075.6 996.7 255.7 113.8 709.4 20011 2105.2 1015.6 253.6 115.7 720.3 20012 2132.7 1033.3 251.6 117.4 730.4 20013 2157.9 1049.5 249.5 119.0 739.9 20014 2182.9 1065.0 248.4 120.5 749.1 20021 2207.9 1080.2 247.8 121.9 758.0 20022 2233.2 1095.3 247.8 123.3 766.8 20023 2259.3 1110.3 248.6 124.7 775.6 20024 2286.2 1125.6 249.9 126.1 784.6 20031 2314.1 1141.1 251.8 127.5 793.7 20032 2343.0 1157.0 254.2 128.8 803.0 20033 2372.9 1173.2 256.9 130.2 812.6 20034 2403.4 1189.7 259.8 131.6 822.3 20041 2434.6 1206.4 262.9 133.1 832.3 20042 2466.7 1223.5 266.2 134.6 842.4 20043 2499.5 1241.0 269.7 136.0 852.8 20044 2532.9 1258.6 273.4 137.6 863.4
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19961 1623.4 441.8 686.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 684.7 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 689.2 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 705.8 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 709.3 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 712.7 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 715.7 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 728.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 724.4 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 724.2 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 731.0 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 742.2 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 743.4 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 749.7 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1749.4 475.0 754.9 746.4 8.5 230.6 259.9 29.0 133.7 19994 1810.0 491.9 770.1 752.4 17.7 235.6 260.6 51.8 112.3 20001 1786.6 482.5 773.3 766.7 6.6 231.9 263.9 35.0 174.5 20002 1803.8 488.1 782.7 776.1 6.6 235.2 262.8 35.0 203.6 20003 1823.8 494.1 792.2 785.6 6.6 238.5 264.0 35.0 221.8 20004 1841.9 500.2 801.9 795.3 6.6 241.9 262.9 35.0 233.7 20011 1866.1 506.4 817.3 810.7 6.6 246.6 260.7 35.0 239.1 20012 1890.5 512.7 833.1 826.5 6.6 251.4 258.3 35.0 242.2 20013 1914.2 518.9 849.1 842.5 6.6 256.3 254.9 35.0 243.7 20014 1937.9 525.0 865.5 858.9 6.6 261.3 251.1 35.0 245.0 20021 1962.6 531.2 882.2 875.6 6.6 266.3 248.0 35.0 245.2 20022 1988.3 537.2 899.2 892.6 6.6 271.5 245.4 35.0 244.9 20023 2014.4 543.3 916.5 909.9 6.6 276.8 242.8 35.0 244.9 20024 2041.2 549.3 934.2 927.6 6.6 282.2 240.5 35.0 245.0 20031 2068.7 555.4 952.2 945.6 6.6 287.7 238.4 35.0 245.4 20032 2096.9 561.5 970.6 964.0 6.6 293.2 236.6 35.0 246.1 20033 2125.2 567.6 989.3 982.7 6.6 298.9 234.3 35.0 247.7 20034 2153.0 573.8 1008.4 1001.8 6.6 304.7 231.0 35.0 250.4 20041 2180.3 580.1 1027.9 1021.3 6.6 310.7 226.7 35.0 254.3 20042 2208.2 586.4 1047.7 1041.1 6.6 316.7 222.4 35.0 258.5 20043 2236.7 592.9 1067.9 1061.3 6.6 322.9 218.0 35.0 262.8 20044 2264.6 599.4 1088.6 1082.0 6.6 329.1 212.6 35.0 268.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1148.0 252.4 37.0 616.8 11.2 230.6 19994 1185.9 261.1 39.1 638.6 11.5 235.6 20001 1194.1 263.5 40.6 646.2 11.9 231.9 20002 1218.0 268.7 42.8 659.1 12.1 235.2 20003 1240.6 275.5 42.9 671.3 12.4 238.5 20004 1261.3 281.5 42.2 683.0 12.6 241.9 20011 1282.4 287.0 41.9 693.9 12.9 246.6 20012 1302.5 292.2 41.6 704.2 13.1 251.4 20013 1321.7 297.0 41.2 713.8 13.4 256.3 20014 1340.4 301.5 41.0 722.9 13.7 261.3 20021 1358.8 306.0 40.9 731.6 13.9 266.3 20022 1377.1 310.4 40.9 740.0 14.2 271.5 20023 1395.5 314.9 41.1 748.3 14.5 276.8 20024 1414.1 319.3 41.3 756.5 14.7 282.2 20031 1432.9 323.9 41.6 764.7 15.0 287.7 20032 1452.1 328.6 42.0 773.0 15.3 293.2 20033 1471.7 333.4 42.4 781.4 15.6 298.9 20034 1491.6 338.2 42.9 789.9 15.8 304.7 20041 1511.9 343.1 43.4 798.5 16.1 310.7 20042 1532.6 348.2 44.0 807.3 16.4 316.7 20043 1553.7 353.4 44.6 816.3 16.7 322.9 20044 1575.2 358.6 45.2 825.4 17.0 329.1
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 0.0 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 0.0 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 0.0 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 0.0 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 0.0 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 0.0 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 0.0 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 0.0 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 0.0 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 0.0 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 0.0 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 0.0 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 0.0 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 0.0 37.7 19993 1099.2 866.5 245.3 -0.6 0.3 -11.7 0.0 48.8 19994 1117.0 882.4 247.8 -0.6 0.4 -12.2 0.0 68.9 20001 1139.1 902.3 250.2 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 55.0 20002 1153.3 915.3 251.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 64.7 20003 1168.2 929.1 252.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 72.4 20004 1184.6 943.3 254.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 76.7 20011 1202.0 957.7 257.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 80.4 20012 1220.2 972.2 261.4 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 82.3 20013 1238.9 986.7 265.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 82.8 20014 1257.9 1001.3 270.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 82.5 20021 1277.0 1015.8 274.7 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 81.8 20022 1296.4 1030.3 279.5 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 80.8 20023 1315.8 1044.8 284.4 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 79.7 20024 1335.3 1059.4 289.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 78.8 20031 1354.9 1074.1 294.2 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 78.0 20032 1374.7 1089.0 299.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 77.4 20033 1394.6 1104.0 304.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 77.0 20034 1414.8 1119.2 309.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 76.8 20041 1435.2 1134.6 314.0 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 76.7 20042 1455.9 1150.2 319.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 76.7 20043 1476.9 1166.1 324.1 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 76.9 20044 1498.1 1182.3 329.3 -0.4 0.4 -12.6 0.0 77.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19961 99.4 99.1 100.8 99.1 98.9 19962 99.7 99.8 100.1 100.0 99.6 19963 100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.3 19964 100.6 100.9 99.3 100.9 101.2 19971 101.3 101.5 99.1 101.3 102.1 19972 101.8 101.8 98.1 101.2 102.9 19973 102.1 102.1 97.3 101.3 103.5 19974 102.4 102.4 96.7 101.6 104.1 19981 102.6 102.5 96.4 101.2 104.5 19982 102.9 102.7 95.9 101.1 105.1 19983 103.3 103.0 95.3 101.5 105.6 19984 103.6 103.3 94.4 101.8 106.1 19991 104.1 103.6 93.7 102.2 106.7 19992 104.4 104.2 93.2 103.5 107.2 19993 104.7 104.6 92.8 104.2 107.7 19994 105.2 105.2 92.4 105.2 108.4 20001 105.9 106.0 91.9 106.6 109.3 20002 106.8 106.9 92.7 107.4 110.2 20003 107.8 107.8 93.5 108.4 111.1 20004 108.7 108.7 94.3 109.3 112.1 20011 109.7 109.7 95.1 110.2 113.1 20012 110.7 110.6 95.9 111.2 114.0 20013 111.7 111.5 96.7 112.1 115.0 20014 112.6 112.5 97.5 113.0 115.9 20021 113.5 113.4 98.2 113.9 116.8 20022 114.4 114.3 99.0 114.8 117.7 20023 115.3 115.1 99.7 115.6 118.6 20024 116.2 116.0 100.5 116.5 119.5 20031 117.1 116.9 101.2 117.3 120.3 20032 117.9 117.7 101.9 118.1 121.2 20033 118.8 118.6 102.6 119.0 122.1 20034 119.7 119.4 103.4 119.8 122.9 20041 120.5 120.3 104.1 120.7 123.8 20042 121.4 121.2 104.8 121.5 124.7 20043 122.3 122.0 105.6 122.4 125.6 20044 123.2 122.9 106.3 123.3 126.4
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19961 100.0 100.4 99.0 100.9 100.9 99.8 19962 99.8 100.0 99.4 100.5 100.4 99.5 19963 100.1 99.9 100.5 99.8 99.3 100.1 19964 100.1 99.7 101.0 98.9 99.5 100.6 19971 100.0 99.5 101.6 98.7 98.3 101.4 19972 99.9 99.2 102.1 98.7 96.5 101.6 19973 100.0 99.0 103.2 98.4 95.9 101.9 19974 99.8 98.6 103.8 98.0 95.3 102.6 19981 99.3 97.9 103.9 97.0 92.6 102.9 19982 99.1 97.4 104.6 96.5 91.6 103.2 19983 99.1 97.0 105.7 95.8 90.6 103.7 19984 99.0 96.6 106.9 95.4 90.5 104.0 19991 99.2 96.4 107.9 95.3 89.8 105.0 19992 99.1 96.1 108.9 95.5 91.0 105.8 19993 99.1 95.7 110.0 95.8 92.4 106.7 19994 99.2 95.7 110.6 96.4 93.5 107.6 20001 99.3 95.7 111.5 96.8 94.8 109.1 20002 100.0 96.5 112.4 97.7 95.5 110.1 20003 100.7 97.3 113.3 98.5 96.2 111.2 20004 101.5 98.2 114.3 99.4 96.9 112.4 20011 102.3 99.0 115.3 100.3 97.6 113.5 20012 103.1 99.9 116.3 101.2 98.3 114.6 20013 103.9 100.7 117.3 102.0 99.1 115.8 20014 104.7 101.5 118.2 102.9 99.8 116.9 20021 105.5 102.3 119.1 103.7 100.5 118.0 20022 106.3 103.1 120.0 104.5 101.3 119.1 20023 107.0 103.8 120.9 105.3 102.0 120.2 20024 107.8 104.6 121.8 106.0 102.8 121.3 20031 108.6 105.4 122.7 106.8 103.6 122.3 20032 109.4 106.1 123.6 107.6 104.3 123.4 20033 110.1 106.9 124.5 108.3 105.1 124.5 20034 110.9 107.6 125.3 109.1 105.9 125.6 20041 111.7 108.4 126.2 109.8 106.7 126.7 20042 112.5 109.2 127.1 110.6 107.5 127.9 20043 113.3 109.9 128.0 111.4 108.3 129.0 20044 114.1 110.7 128.9 112.2 109.1 130.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment