US Forecast: July 31, 2000
Forecast Period

2000:3--2004:4 (19 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 28, 2000.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2000:2. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. Since the November 3, 1998, version the NIPA data have been completely revised, and the revised data have been used. A few specification changes were made in the process of updating the model using the revised data. The following is a list of the changes that have been made from the November 3, 1998, version.

  1. Equation 1 (CS, service consumption): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on service consumption. This change began with the July 30, 1999, version.
  2. Equation 3 (CD, durable expenditures): The lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. This change began with the May 1, 1999, version.
  3. Equation 5 (L1, labor force--men 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  4. Equation 6 (L2, labor force--women 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  5. Equation 7 (L3, labor force--all others 16+): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999.
  6. Equation 8 (LM, number of moonlighters): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  7. Equation 10 (PF, private nonfarm price deflator): The gap variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  8. Equation 11 (Y, production of the firm sector): The constant term is now dropped from the equation. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version.
  9. Equation 12 (KK, stock of capital): This equation replaces the old equation 12, which explained IKF, nonresidential fixed investment. IKF is now explained by the identity 92, which before determined KK. Identity 92 now is: IKF = KK - (1 - DELK)*KK-1. The new equation 12 has on the left hand side logKK and on the right hand side logKK-1, logKK-2, logY, logY-1, logY-2, logY-3, logY-4, logY-5, and RB*(1-D2G-D2S). This change began with the November 5, 1999, version. (Equation 12 for the January 30, 1999, May 1, 1999, and July 30, 1999, versions of the model differed from the equation in the November 3, 1998, version in that the interest rate variable was dropped.)
  10. Equation 19 (INTF, interest payments of the firm sector): There is now a simpler specification for INTF. INTF equals (1/400)*RB*(-AF) plus an exogenous variable (DINTF) that makes the equation fit perfectly within the estimation period. It is difficult to link INTF, which is from the NIPA accounts, to AF, which is from the Flow of Funds accounts, and the current specification seems about as good as any. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version.
  11. Equation 20 (IVA, inventory valuation adjustment): The constant term is now dropped from the equation. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version.
  12. Equation 21 (CCF, capital consumption of the firm sector): This equation is now estimated under the assumption of first order serial correlation of the error term. This change began with the November 5, 1999, version.
  13. Equation 25 (CG, capital gains or losses on corporate stocks held by the household sector): The left hand side variable is now CG/GDP-1 instead of just CG, and the cash flow explanatory variable is now also divided by GDP-1: [<>(CF-TFG-TFS)]/GDP-1. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version.
  14. Equation 27 (IM, imports): The income variable has been replaced by consumption plus fixed investment: log[(CS+CN+CD+IHH+IKF+IHB+IHF+IKB+IKH)/POP]. The interest rate variable has been dropped. IM is now in effect run off of consumption plus fixed investment rather than being determined by a separate demand equation. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version. (Equation 27 for the November 5, 1999, January 29, 2000, and April 28, 2000, versions of the model differed from the equation in the November 3, 1998, version in that the lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, was added.)
  15. Equation 29 (INTG, interest payments of the government sector): There is now a simpler specification for INTG. INTG equals (1/400)*(.2*RS + .8*RB)*(-AG) plus an exogenous variable (DINTG) that makes the equation fit perfectly within the estimation period. It is also difficult to link INTG, which is from the NIPA accounts, to AG, which is from the Flow of Funds accounts, and again the current specification seems about as good as any. This change began with the July 31, 2000, version.
  16. Equation 30 (RS, three month Treasury bill rate): The variable JJS has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. The variable PCGDPR (percentage change in real GDP) has been replaced by the change in UR. The first change began with the November 5, 1999, version, and the second change began with the January 29, 2000, version.
  17. Equation 89 (AA, total net wealth): This identity is now: AA = (AH + MH)/PH + (PIH*KH)/PH. This change allows capital gains on housing to affect AA. PIH*KH is an estimate of the nominal value of the housing stock. When housing prices increase faster than the overall price level, PIH increases relative to PH, and so (PIH*KH)/PH increases. Before the second term was only KH, which was in effect multiplying KH by PH instead of PIH. This change began with the January 29, 2000, version.

Some of the above changes have lessened the reliance of the model on peak to peak interpolations. Variables Z, JJS, and the output gap variable have been replaced by UR. This means that the variables JJ, JJP, JJS, YS, and Z are no longer needed in the model. UR and JHMIN are now the only two capacity-like variables in the model. JJP had been created by peak to peak interpolations of JJ. This change also eliminates equations 95-98. In addition, the excess capital variable is no longer used in equation 12, and this means that variables EXKK and MUH are no longer needed in the model. MUH had been created by peak to peak interpolations of Y/KK. This change eliminates equation 93. All these variables and equations have been retained in the software, but they play no role in the solution of the model.

The different treatment of INTF and INTG means that three variables have been dropped from the model---BF, BG, and TI---and two have been added---DINTF and DINTG.

See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2000:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2000:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  4.2       
COG           2.0 (beg. 2000:4)    0.9       
JG            0.0 (beg. 2000:4)    0.7       
TRGS          8.0                  5.9       
TRSH          7.0                  6.4       
COS           3.0                  6.1       
JS            1.0                  1.6       
EX            9/8/7/6/5            7.9
PIM           3.0                 -0.5

Notes: 9/8/7/6/5 means 9.0% in 2000:3, 8.0% in 2000:4, 
       7.0% in 2001:1, 6.0% in 2001:2, and 5.0% thereafter.

       COG and JG were adjusted down in 2000:3 to reflect the 
       end of the Census work.

The first six variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. All tax rates were assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast except for a slight downward adjustment to D1G in 2000:3.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) for the next four quarters are 3.4, 2.4, 2.3, and 2.0 respectively. The growth rate is thus forecast to moderate from its high values in the last year. The unemployment rate, however, falls to 3.6 percent by the first quarter of 2001. Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises. It is predicted to be 2.7 percent in the third quarter and then about 3.5 percent for the next two years. The Fed is predicted (through the interest rate rule) to increase the bill rate (RS) to 6.5 percent by the second quarter of 2001, which is in response to the lower unemployment rate and higher inflation rate. The household saving rate (variable SRZ in the model) is close to zero throughout the forecast period. The federal government budget surplus (SGP) is forecast to be between \$274.3 and \$312.7 billion throughout the forecast period. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (rising to about \$600 billion by the end of 2004).

In 2003 and 2004 the growth rate is about 2.4 percent, the unemployment rate is about 4.3 percent, and inflation is about 3.1 percent. In general, this is a forecast of a soft landing. Inflation increases in 2000, but the Fed cuts it off without too much harm. There are two main uncertainties in this story. The first concerns inflation. The unemployment rate enters linearly in the price equation (equation 10), but at some point one would expect to see large (i.e., nonlinear) price increases in response to a falling unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this nonlinearity, and so there are no nonlinear effects in the model. It could thus be that inflation will be even worse in the future than the model is predicting if the economy is close to the point where the price response is nonlinear. This is especially likely if the unemployment rate does fall to 3.6 percent, as it is predicted to do. The second main uncertainty concerns the stock market. There is a stock price equation in the model (equation 25, explaining CG), but it cannot pick up booms and crashes. The equation is predicting that stock prices will grow modestly in the future. If, on the other hand, inflation increases, the Fed tightens, and the stock market crashes, the effect on the economy through the wealth effect could be substantial. If you want to see this, you can run an experiment in which you crash the stock market (see Chapter 7 of The US Model Workbook for how to do this). You will see that a large sustained crash leads to a recession even if you assume that the Fed substantially lowers the interest rate in response to the crash. In other words, the model has the property that the Fed does not have the power to prevent a recession if there is a large crash.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2004:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the rosy government budget picture. For example, there is currently considerable uncertainty about possible future tax cuts, and you can experiment with alternative tax-cut plans. Remember that the current forecast assumes that there are no tax cuts.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to what is happening in the economy?

Given the above discussion about nonlinearities and inflation, you may want to experiment with the price equation (equation 10). Will inflation be higher than predicted because of the very low unemployment rates?

Related to the inflation question, the current forecast is based on the assumption that the price of imports (PIM) grows at a rate of 3 percent per year throughout the forecast period. A strong dollar helps keep PIM down, but oil price increases push it up. It may be that the assumption of 3 percent is too optimistic, and you may want to experiment with higher values. This will, of course, make inflation even worse in the future.

Finally, as discussed above, you may want to crash the stock market.

US Forecast Tables: July 31, 2000
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19961 7676.4 2.9 3018.8 3.6 1553.9 2.4 601.7 4.1 19962 7802.9 6.8 3039.2 2.7 1569.9 4.2 620.4 13.0 19963 7841.9 2.0 3057.7 2.5 1578.6 2.2 618.1 -1.5 19964 7931.3 4.6 3072.2 1.9 1593.9 3.9 625.7 5.0 19971 8016.4 4.4 3103.7 4.2 1605.6 3.0 641.5 10.5 19972 8131.9 5.9 3130.6 3.5 1608.2 0.6 636.5 -3.1 19973 8216.6 4.2 3160.6 3.9 1631.7 6.0 670.5 23.1 19974 8272.9 2.8 3193.0 4.2 1634.1 0.6 680.9 6.4 19981 8404.9 6.5 3224.5 4.0 1652.8 4.7 696.4 9.4 19982 8465.6 2.9 3258.2 4.2 1676.3 5.8 719.4 13.9 19983 8537.6 3.4 3292.4 4.3 1694.2 4.3 726.7 4.1 19984 8654.5 5.6 3302.8 1.3 1716.0 5.2 766.7 23.9 19991 8730.0 3.5 3335.8 4.1 1748.5 7.8 782.7 8.6 19992 8783.2 2.5 3373.4 4.6 1765.0 3.8 810.5 15.0 19993 8905.8 5.7 3411.1 4.5 1786.1 4.9 826.2 8.0 19994 9084.1 8.3 3443.0 3.8 1818.1 7.4 851.8 13.0 20001 9191.8 4.8 3487.2 5.2 1844.8 6.0 898.2 23.6 20002 9308.8 5.2 3523.6 4.2 1860.9 3.5 889.4 -3.9 20003 9385.9 3.4 3557.0 3.8 1875.6 3.2 897.4 3.6 20004 9441.8 2.4 3589.1 3.7 1888.3 2.7 903.5 2.8 20011 9495.0 2.3 3619.3 3.4 1899.0 2.3 907.4 1.7 20012 9542.2 2.0 3647.8 3.2 1908.1 1.9 909.3 0.8 20013 9579.4 1.6 3675.1 3.0 1915.9 1.7 909.5 0.1 20014 9617.6 1.6 3701.2 2.9 1923.0 1.5 908.6 -0.4 20021 9658.8 1.7 3726.2 2.7 1929.7 1.4 907.2 -0.6 20022 9702.9 1.8 3750.4 2.6 1936.2 1.3 905.6 -0.7 20023 9751.3 2.0 3773.8 2.5 1942.6 1.3 904.1 -0.7 20024 9803.3 2.2 3796.8 2.5 1949.1 1.3 902.9 -0.5 20031 9858.2 2.3 3819.3 2.4 1955.7 1.4 902.2 -0.3 20032 9915.6 2.3 3841.5 2.3 1962.5 1.4 902.1 -0.1 20033 9974.6 2.4 3863.6 2.3 1969.5 1.4 902.5 0.2 20034 10034.7 2.4 3885.5 2.3 1976.7 1.5 903.6 0.5 20041 10095.5 2.4 3907.3 2.3 1984.0 1.5 905.1 0.7 20042 10156.9 2.5 3929.0 2.2 1991.6 1.5 907.2 0.9 20043 10218.5 2.4 3950.8 2.2 1999.3 1.6 909.7 1.1 20044 10280.3 2.4 3972.5 2.2 2007.3 1.6 912.7 1.3
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19961 254.9 7.7 728.4 15.5 5.6 921.1 10.8 19962 267.1 20.5 750.7 12.8 30.3 950.4 13.3 19963 266.4 -1.0 778.1 15.4 51.2 982.9 14.4 19964 263.7 -4.1 798.0 10.7 32.9 998.1 6.3 19971 272.9 14.8 817.9 10.3 49.3 1034.3 15.3 19972 276.4 5.2 848.7 16.0 88.3 1079.8 18.8 19973 277.9 2.1 890.8 21.3 51.3 1123.8 17.3 19974 281.9 5.9 899.6 4.0 66.1 1141.2 6.3 19981 289.1 10.5 946.4 22.5 117.3 1179.8 14.2 19982 297.6 12.4 984.5 17.1 60.9 1216.6 13.1 19983 305.2 10.5 994.1 3.9 73.1 1232.9 5.5 19984 311.6 8.7 1027.8 14.3 69.4 1269.0 12.2 19991 317.4 7.6 1054.5 10.8 48.1 1283.1 4.5 19992 322.1 6.0 1081.7 10.7 13.1 1332.2 16.2 19993 319.6 -3.1 1115.3 13.0 39.1 1385.2 16.9 19994 319.9 0.4 1143.9 10.6 80.9 1420.9 10.7 20001 322.3 3.1 1204.5 22.9 36.6 1461.7 12.0 20002 325.5 3.9 1258.2 19.1 60.3 1520.3 17.0 20003 318.4 -8.4 1295.6 12.4 80.8 1559.6 10.8 20004 313.3 -6.3 1328.4 10.5 66.1 1597.0 9.9 20011 308.1 -6.5 1357.4 9.0 58.4 1631.9 9.0 20012 302.6 -7.0 1384.0 8.1 52.4 1664.0 8.1 20013 297.0 -7.2 1407.3 6.9 43.3 1693.2 7.2 20014 292.1 -6.4 1428.8 6.2 36.5 1719.5 6.4 20021 288.3 -5.2 1449.5 5.9 31.7 1743.4 5.7 20022 285.3 -4.1 1469.8 5.7 28.6 1765.4 5.1 20023 283.1 -3.0 1490.1 5.6 27.8 1785.8 4.7 20024 281.7 -2.0 1510.7 5.7 28.3 1805.1 4.4 20031 281.0 -1.0 1531.7 5.7 29.4 1823.8 4.2 20032 280.9 -0.1 1553.0 5.7 31.1 1842.1 4.1 20033 281.2 0.5 1574.5 5.6 32.7 1860.2 4.0 20034 282.0 1.1 1596.0 5.6 34.3 1878.3 4.0 20041 283.1 1.5 1617.4 5.5 35.6 1896.6 3.9 20042 284.4 1.9 1638.6 5.3 36.6 1915.0 3.9 20043 285.9 2.1 1659.4 5.2 37.4 1933.6 3.9 20044 287.5 2.3 1679.7 5.0 38.0 1952.3 3.9
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19961 2.5 2.2 3.9 1.6 19962 1.4 1.9 4.5 2.6 19963 1.9 1.7 3.7 1.9 19964 1.6 1.2 2.3 1.0 19971 2.9 4.4 0.6 -3.6 19972 1.9 2.0 1.7 -0.3 19973 1.2 1.6 5.9 4.2 19974 1.4 1.6 5.3 3.7 19981 1.0 1.0 6.2 5.2 19982 1.2 1.3 6.6 5.2 19983 1.5 1.8 6.0 4.2 19984 1.1 0.0 5.9 5.9 19991 2.3 3.2 4.4 1.2 19992 1.4 1.7 5.1 3.4 19993 0.9 0.8 3.9 3.1 19994 1.3 0.8 5.8 5.0 20001 3.3 3.4 1.9 -1.4 20002 2.5 2.6 5.8 3.1 20003 2.7 3.0 4.4 1.3 20004 3.4 3.2 4.6 1.3 20011 3.4 3.3 4.7 1.3 20012 3.5 3.4 4.7 1.3 20013 3.5 3.3 4.7 1.3 20014 3.4 3.3 4.7 1.4 20021 3.4 3.2 4.7 1.4 20022 3.3 3.2 4.6 1.4 20023 3.2 3.1 4.6 1.4 20024 3.2 3.1 4.6 1.5 20031 3.1 3.1 4.6 1.5 20032 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20033 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20034 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20041 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20042 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20043 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5 20044 3.1 3.0 4.6 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1192.8 -2.6 68.1 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1196.8 1.4 69.3 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1214.8 6.2 68.8 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1205.0 -3.2 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1221.8 5.7 65.5 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1235.2 4.5 70.3 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1231.2 -1.3 71.6 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.7 6.1 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.9 4.3 73.4 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1272.6 3.1 72.0 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1285.2 4.0 75.4 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1311.4 8.4 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1319.2 2.4 73.3 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1321.3 0.6 74.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1339.0 5.5 74.0 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1404.3 21.0 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1380.1 -6.7 66.5 20002 5.7 7.8 8.3 1367.8 -3.5 65.9 20003 5.7 7.8 8.4 1386.2 5.5 65.5 20004 6.0 7.9 8.5 1404.3 5.3 66.0 20011 6.3 8.0 8.7 1421.9 5.1 66.4 20012 6.5 8.1 8.9 1439.2 5.0 66.9 20013 6.6 8.1 9.0 1456.3 4.8 67.5 20014 6.6 8.2 9.1 1473.0 4.7 68.0 20021 6.6 8.3 9.2 1489.4 4.5 68.6 20022 6.7 8.3 9.3 1505.6 4.4 69.1 20023 6.7 8.4 9.3 1521.5 4.3 69.6 20024 6.7 8.4 9.4 1537.2 4.2 70.0 20031 6.7 8.5 9.4 1552.8 4.1 70.5 20032 6.7 8.5 9.5 1568.2 4.0 70.9 20033 6.7 8.6 9.5 1583.5 4.0 71.3 20034 6.7 8.6 9.6 1598.7 3.9 71.7 20041 6.7 8.6 9.6 1613.9 3.8 72.1 20042 6.7 8.6 9.6 1629.0 3.8 72.4 20043 6.7 8.6 9.6 1644.1 3.8 72.8 20044 6.6 8.7 9.6 1659.2 3.7 73.1
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19961 5.6 2.2 0.9 -0.6 2.1 1.0 7.4 19962 5.5 2.0 2.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.9 3.1 0.9 2.6 3.0 7.1 19964 5.3 1.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.8 7.2 19971 5.3 1.8 0.7 4.0 3.4 2.3 7.1 19972 5.0 0.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.4 6.8 19973 4.8 1.4 3.0 -0.8 1.3 1.9 6.6 19974 4.7 -0.3 -1.9 5.8 2.9 1.6 6.4 19981 4.7 0.6 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.2 6.4 19982 4.4 0.1 -0.8 1.2 2.5 1.1 6.1 19983 4.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.8 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 0.7 3.7 1.7 2.0 6.1 19991 4.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.3 2.4 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.9 -0.2 2.2 2.1 0.4 5.9 19993 4.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 2.2 1.0 5.9 19994 4.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 5.7 20001 4.1 1.9 3.0 4.9 3.0 3.2 5.7 20002 4.0 -1.3 0.1 0.1 1.5 -0.2 5.6 20003 4.0 0.9 2.0 2.0 2.9 1.7 5.6 20004 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.4 5.3 20011 3.6 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.1 5.2 20012 3.6 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.8 5.1 20013 3.6 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 5.2 20014 3.7 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.3 5.3 20021 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.2 5.5 20022 3.9 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 5.6 20023 3.9 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 5.8 20024 4.0 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 5.9 20031 4.1 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 6.0 20032 4.1 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.3 6.1 20033 4.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.3 6.2 20034 4.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.3 6.3 20041 4.3 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.3 6.4 20042 4.3 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.3 6.4 20043 4.3 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 6.5 20044 4.4 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 6.6
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19961 2143.6 544.5 14.2 5.3 2.7 90.7 -176.4 16.9 19962 1594.8 556.2 8.9 4.7 4.4 106.8 -137.0 27.2 19963 1081.4 558.8 1.9 5.2 0.2 134.3 -130.1 22.2 19964 3046.5 585.0 20.1 4.8 2.4 111.0 -103.9 19.4 19971 625.6 578.6 -4.3 4.3 -0.8 117.5 -86.5 23.5 19972 6450.8 596.7 13.1 4.7 3.5 100.1 -68.2 26.6 19973 3773.6 631.9 25.8 4.0 2.9 120.2 -33.8 35.4 19974 1600.0 621.4 -6.5 4.3 0.2 154.6 -25.0 38.3 19981 6870.1 590.9 -18.2 4.8 3.0 151.5 26.0 38.2 19982 613.8 600.6 6.7 4.5 1.6 189.3 41.9 33.2 19983 -6282.3 601.0 0.3 4.3 2.9 224.6 72.1 37.6 19984 8969.8 588.2 -8.3 4.0 3.7 231.2 56.4 57.7 19991 2515.7 627.2 29.3 3.3 1.7 246.8 89.8 47.8 19992 4009.2 647.2 13.4 2.6 1.7 296.5 117.4 38.1 19993 -2992.1 655.9 5.5 2.0 4.1 339.8 147.3 47.4 19994 11510.3 688.4 21.3 1.6 6.3 369.5 143.4 66.6 20001 2662.0 735.4 30.2 0.2 0.9 390.6 236.0 52.0 20002 -2800.0 783.1 28.6 0.2 4.5 421.0 244.9 55.4 20003 1045.1 793.1 5.2 -0.1 1.4 438.0 274.3 59.1 20004 1047.9 780.6 -6.2 -0.2 0.2 455.0 276.9 63.2 20011 1011.8 767.4 -6.6 -0.2 0.3 471.9 277.4 66.4 20012 1062.0 753.5 -7.1 -0.2 0.3 488.5 278.4 68.0 20013 1131.1 736.6 -8.7 -0.2 0.3 505.1 278.0 68.0 20014 1162.1 722.9 -7.2 -0.2 0.6 519.1 277.4 67.4 20021 1180.8 712.0 -5.9 -0.2 0.9 530.9 276.8 66.3 20022 1209.0 703.6 -4.7 -0.2 1.0 540.7 276.6 65.1 20023 1234.8 698.0 -3.1 -0.1 1.2 549.1 277.6 63.9 20024 1256.6 694.6 -2.0 0.0 1.3 556.4 279.4 62.8 20031 1277.7 692.6 -1.1 0.0 1.4 563.0 281.9 61.8 20032 1300.6 691.9 -0.4 0.1 1.5 569.0 285.1 61.0 20033 1326.1 691.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 574.7 288.9 60.3 20034 1353.3 692.5 0.3 0.3 1.6 580.4 293.1 59.6 20041 1381.4 693.4 0.6 0.4 1.6 585.9 297.6 59.0 20042 1410.8 694.7 0.7 0.4 1.6 591.5 302.4 58.4 20043 1441.4 696.1 0.9 0.5 1.6 597.1 307.5 57.8 20044 1473.0 697.9 1.0 0.5 1.6 602.7 312.7 57.2
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19961 21.5 2.9 2.3 670.0 11.2 -1.6 19962 14.3 7.4 6.8 676.1 3.7 -1.7 19963 -14.4 3.3 3.2 680.2 2.4 -4.4 19964 2.0 11.4 28.7 685.9 3.4 0.6 19971 -8.9 11.1 7.5 702.1 9.8 -4.5 19972 26.2 7.8 17.6 706.3 2.4 -7.4 19973 -1.6 7.5 10.6 709.2 1.7 -2.5 19974 -3.5 3.0 -0.8 709.8 0.3 -2.5 19981 -19.7 8.5 1.0 718.8 5.2 -10.6 19982 30.4 8.8 -3.0 719.6 0.4 -4.2 19983 -7.9 7.7 -3.2 721.7 1.2 -4.9 19984 7.9 3.7 15.1 720.5 -0.7 -0.3 19991 -4.2 16.5 -7.9 730.3 5.6 -2.3 19992 5.5 -2.8 5.8 732.9 1.4 5.4 19993 14.7 6.5 10.2 735.9 1.6 5.9 19994 28.4 14.5 10.3 738.8 1.6 5.3 20001 -30.0 14.6 6.3 754.9 9.0 5.6 20002 30.4 -2.7 7.3 769.9 8.2 -0.2 20003 -10.2 3.0 9.0 784.9 8.0 3.0 20004 2.0 3.0 8.0 800.1 8.0 3.0 20011 2.0 3.0 7.0 815.6 8.0 3.0 20012 2.0 3.0 6.0 831.5 8.0 3.0 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 847.6 8.0 3.0 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 864.1 8.0 3.0 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 880.9 8.0 3.0 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 898.0 8.0 3.0 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 915.5 8.0 3.0 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 933.2 8.0 3.0 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 951.4 8.0 3.0 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 969.9 8.0 3.0 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 988.7 8.0 3.0 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1007.9 8.0 3.0 20041 2.0 3.0 5.0 1027.5 8.0 3.0 20042 2.0 3.0 5.0 1047.4 8.0 3.0 20043 2.0 3.0 5.0 1067.8 8.0 3.0 20044 2.0 3.0 5.0 1088.5 8.0 3.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1711.7 807.0 209.1 95.1 600.5 19982 1740.3 826.2 210.6 95.8 607.7 19983 1772.6 845.9 213.3 97.5 615.9 19984 1791.4 864.8 205.1 97.3 624.2 19991 1817.5 868.7 212.3 97.9 638.6 19992 1849.7 888.5 214.9 98.9 647.4 19993 1890.3 913.7 217.8 101.4 657.4 19994 1941.0 938.2 232.3 103.9 666.6 20001 2012.0 978.0 245.7 106.8 681.5 20002 2059.7 1003.8 256.1 108.6 691.2 20003 2081.9 1010.9 258.2 110.4 702.4 20004 2113.3 1032.4 255.5 112.1 713.3 20011 2144.8 1054.5 252.6 113.8 723.9 20012 2174.7 1075.4 249.6 115.5 734.2 20013 2201.6 1094.8 246.0 117.0 743.8 20014 2228.5 1113.8 243.0 118.5 753.2 20021 2256.0 1132.8 240.6 120.0 762.5 20022 2284.1 1151.9 238.8 121.5 771.9 20023 2313.3 1171.3 237.6 123.0 781.4 20024 2343.6 1191.1 236.8 124.4 791.2 20031 2374.9 1211.4 236.4 125.9 801.2 20032 2407.3 1232.2 236.3 127.4 811.4 20033 2440.5 1253.5 236.3 129.0 821.8 20034 2474.4 1275.1 236.4 130.5 832.4 20041 2509.0 1297.2 236.6 132.1 843.2 20042 2544.2 1319.5 236.9 133.7 854.2 20043 2579.9 1342.2 237.2 135.3 865.2 20044 2616.1 1365.2 237.6 137.0 876.4
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19961 1623.4 441.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1659.2 451.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1685.7 445.5 718.8 8.1 205.0 279.6 28.7 26.0 19982 1698.4 457.5 719.6 7.0 205.4 280.2 28.7 41.9 19983 1700.5 451.0 721.7 9.1 209.9 280.0 28.8 72.1 19984 1735.0 460.7 720.5 19.1 216.1 275.4 43.2 56.4 19991 1727.7 464.5 730.3 8.3 223.0 267.7 33.9 89.8 19992 1732.3 460.2 732.9 10.0 221.4 267.1 40.7 117.4 19993 1743.0 471.3 735.9 9.1 234.0 262.2 30.5 147.3 19994 1797.6 487.0 738.8 18.9 238.8 261.8 52.3 143.4 20001 1776.0 478.7 754.9 8.3 235.0 265.0 34.1 236.0 20002 1814.8 499.9 769.9 7.3 240.7 262.0 35.0 244.9 20003 1807.7 476.4 784.9 7.3 245.4 258.8 35.0 274.3 20004 1836.4 482.0 800.1 7.3 250.1 261.8 35.0 276.9 20011 1867.4 487.9 815.6 7.3 255.0 266.6 35.0 277.4 20012 1896.3 493.9 831.5 7.3 260.0 268.7 35.0 278.4 20013 1923.6 499.9 847.6 7.3 265.0 268.8 35.0 278.0 20014 1951.1 505.9 864.1 7.3 270.2 268.6 35.0 277.4 20021 1979.2 512.0 880.9 7.3 275.4 268.6 35.0 276.8 20022 2007.4 518.1 898.0 7.3 280.8 268.3 35.0 276.6 20023 2035.7 524.2 915.5 7.3 286.2 267.5 35.0 277.6 20024 2064.2 530.4 933.2 7.3 291.8 266.5 35.0 279.4 20031 2093.0 536.6 951.4 7.3 297.4 265.3 35.0 281.9 20032 2122.2 542.9 969.9 7.3 303.2 263.9 35.0 285.1 20033 2151.6 549.2 988.7 7.3 309.1 262.3 35.0 288.9 20034 2181.4 555.6 1007.9 7.3 315.1 260.4 35.0 293.1 20041 2211.4 562.1 1027.5 7.3 321.2 258.3 35.0 297.6 20042 2241.8 568.7 1047.4 7.3 327.5 255.9 35.0 302.4 20043 2272.5 575.4 1067.8 7.3 333.8 253.2 35.0 307.5 20044 2303.5 582.1 1088.5 7.3 340.3 250.2 35.0 312.7
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.5 228.8 35.1 569.3 10.3 205.0 19982 1057.1 230.2 35.3 576.1 10.1 205.4 19983 1075.4 238.1 35.8 581.7 9.9 209.9 19984 1108.2 242.7 34.3 605.3 9.8 216.1 19991 1111.9 244.5 35.5 599.3 9.6 223.0 19992 1120.9 244.9 35.9 609.1 9.6 221.4 19993 1150.3 250.3 36.3 620.2 9.5 234.0 19994 1187.6 259.2 38.5 641.6 9.5 238.8 20001 1195.9 261.4 40.6 649.2 9.7 235.0 20002 1216.9 268.4 42.3 655.6 9.9 240.7 20003 1237.1 272.5 42.7 666.3 10.1 245.4 20004 1257.7 278.1 42.2 676.9 10.4 250.1 20011 1278.3 283.7 41.7 687.1 10.7 255.0 20012 1298.2 289.1 41.2 697.0 10.9 260.0 20013 1317.3 294.1 40.6 706.5 11.2 265.0 20014 1336.3 298.9 40.2 715.7 11.4 270.2 20021 1355.3 303.8 39.8 724.7 11.7 275.4 20022 1374.4 308.7 39.5 733.5 12.0 280.8 20023 1393.8 313.7 39.3 742.4 12.2 286.2 20024 1413.4 318.8 39.1 751.3 12.5 291.8 20031 1433.4 323.9 39.1 760.2 12.8 297.4 20032 1453.8 329.3 39.0 769.3 13.1 303.2 20033 1474.6 334.7 39.0 778.5 13.3 309.1 20034 1495.8 340.2 39.1 787.8 13.6 315.1 20041 1517.4 345.8 39.1 797.3 13.9 321.2 20042 1539.4 351.5 39.1 807.0 14.2 327.5 20043 1561.7 357.3 39.2 816.9 14.5 333.8 20044 1584.4 363.2 39.3 826.9 14.8 340.3
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 19.4 19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 38.3 19981 1010.3 792.2 229.8 -0.4 0.4 -10.9 38.2 19982 1023.9 803.5 232.1 -0.4 0.4 -10.9 33.2 19983 1037.8 814.5 235.2 -0.6 0.4 -10.9 37.6 19984 1050.5 823.4 239.3 -1.0 0.4 -10.8 57.7 19991 1064.1 832.1 245.4 -2.1 0.3 -11.0 47.8 19992 1082.8 847.2 249.7 -2.7 0.4 -11.0 38.1 19993 1102.9 863.1 254.5 -3.3 0.4 -11.0 47.4 19994 1121.0 877.4 258.5 -3.6 0.4 -10.9 66.6 20001 1143.9 897.5 261.6 -4.2 0.4 -10.6 52.0 20002 1161.5 911.3 265.6 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 55.4 20003 1178.0 924.3 269.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 59.1 20004 1194.5 937.9 272.0 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 63.2 20011 1211.9 952.0 275.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 66.4 20012 1230.2 966.4 279.2 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 68.0 20013 1249.3 981.1 283.6 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 68.0 20014 1269.0 995.8 288.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 67.4 20021 1289.0 1010.7 293.7 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 66.3 20022 1309.3 1025.6 299.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 65.1 20023 1329.8 1040.7 304.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 63.9 20024 1350.6 1056.0 310.0 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 62.8 20031 1371.6 1071.5 315.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 61.8 20032 1392.8 1087.1 321.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 61.0 20033 1414.4 1103.0 326.8 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 60.3 20034 1436.2 1119.1 332.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 59.6 20041 1458.4 1135.5 338.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 59.0 20042 1481.0 1152.1 344.2 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 58.4 20043 1503.9 1169.0 350.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 57.8 20044 1527.2 1186.1 356.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 57.2
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19961 258.4 44.4 -6.2 90.7 -270.3 -117.0 19962 187.8 24.1 -5.8 106.8 -189.1 -123.9 19963 178.8 -35.9 -11.4 134.3 -170.5 -95.3 19964 188.5 -9.7 -22.1 111.0 -146.5 -121.3 19971 145.4 -17.3 -4.5 117.5 -116.1 -125.0 19972 191.6 -35.4 -1.5 100.1 -101.9 -152.9 19973 165.4 -60.3 1.2 120.2 -79.2 -147.2 19974 150.6 -125.8 1.2 154.6 -65.6 -115.0 19981 163.3 -194.3 4.0 151.5 -1.5 -123.1 19982 142.0 -208.4 2.0 189.3 -3.8 -121.1 19983 118.7 -257.4 3.0 224.6 25.1 -114.0 19984 100.7 -244.0 1.2 231.2 6.3 -95.4 19991 41.2 -240.2 19.1 246.8 52.0 -118.9 19992 0.1 -246.4 7.8 296.5 67.0 -125.1 19993 -42.4 -294.4 13.7 339.8 95.9 -112.6 19994 -66.4 -313.4 23.8 369.5 82.5 -96.1 20001 -166.5 -309.7 25.6 390.6 190.6 -130.6 20002 -166.0 -348.0 21.2 421.0 196.0 -124.2 20003 -180.2 -382.2 23.6 438.0 224.1 -123.4 20004 -183.8 -400.8 26.1 455.0 225.5 -122.1 20011 -181.5 -422.0 28.8 471.9 224.7 -121.8 20012 -178.5 -442.5 31.5 488.5 224.3 -123.1 20013 -176.9 -458.9 34.2 505.1 222.6 -126.0 20014 -174.1 -472.8 36.9 519.1 220.6 -129.7 20021 -169.7 -485.6 39.6 530.9 218.5 -133.8 20022 -164.7 -497.4 42.4 540.7 217.0 -138.1 20023 -159.2 -509.2 45.2 549.1 216.5 -142.4 20024 -153.6 -521.1 48.0 556.4 216.9 -146.6 20031 -148.0 -533.0 50.8 563.0 218.0 -150.8 20032 -142.7 -544.8 53.7 569.0 219.7 -154.9 20033 -138.1 -556.3 56.6 574.7 221.9 -158.9 20034 -134.3 -567.4 59.6 580.4 224.6 -162.8 20041 -131.4 -578.0 62.6 585.9 227.7 -166.8 20042 -129.4 -587.9 65.6 591.5 230.9 -170.8 20043 -128.4 -597.0 68.7 597.1 234.4 -174.8 20044 -128.3 -605.4 71.9 602.7 238.0 -178.9 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7629.6 5130.4 606.4 1539.6 2984.4 19962 7782.7 5218.1 621.3 1569.4 3027.4 19963 7859.2 5263.7 616.7 1578.8 3068.2 19964 7981.3 5337.8 621.5 1608.4 3107.9 19971 8124.1 5429.9 635.1 1626.8 3168.0 19972 8279.9 5470.8 624.4 1627.3 3219.1 19973 8390.9 5575.9 652.4 1653.1 3270.4 19974 8478.6 5640.6 658.3 1659.0 3323.3 19981 8634.8 5712.7 670.5 1672.5 3369.7 19982 8722.1 5811.5 689.3 1694.8 3427.4 19983 8828.9 5893.3 692.5 1717.9 3482.9 19984 8974.9 5986.0 723.4 1745.2 3517.4 19991 9104.5 6095.3 733.9 1786.4 3575.0 19992 9191.5 6213.1 756.3 1825.3 3631.5 19993 9341.0 6319.9 767.2 1860.0 3692.7 19994 9559.8 6446.3 787.6 1910.2 3748.5 20001 9752.8 6621.8 826.3 1963.9 3831.6 20002 9937.2 6708.9 816.8 1997.6 3894.5 20003 10085.9 6818.8 830.2 2028.2 3960.4 20004 10230.1 6927.0 842.4 2057.7 4027.0 20011 10375.0 7031.5 852.7 2085.8 4093.0 20012 10516.1 7132.2 861.3 2112.5 4158.4 20013 10648.1 7229.3 868.3 2138.1 4222.8 20014 10781.1 7323.5 874.3 2162.9 4286.2 20021 10917.0 7415.7 879.7 2187.3 4348.7 20022 11056.0 7506.5 884.9 2211.4 4410.3 20023 11199.6 7597.0 890.1 2235.5 4471.4 20024 11347.7 7687.7 895.6 2259.7 4532.4 20031 11500.1 7779.3 901.6 2284.3 4593.3 20032 11656.4 7872.0 908.2 2309.4 4654.5 20033 11816.1 7966.2 915.4 2334.8 4716.0 20034 11978.8 8061.9 923.2 2360.7 4777.9 20041 12144.2 8159.3 931.7 2387.2 4840.4 20042 12312.0 8258.4 940.8 2414.1 4903.6 20043 12482.0 8359.2 950.4 2441.4 4967.3 20044 12654.1 8461.6 960.5 2469.3 5031.7
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1172.4 1165.6 865.1 300.5 6.8 19962 1231.5 1201.7 885.4 316.3 29.8 19963 1282.6 1232.6 913.6 319.0 50.0 19964 1284.4 1250.9 933.7 317.2 33.5 19971 1324.3 1275.5 955.5 320.0 48.8 19972 1397.7 1310.0 984.3 325.7 87.7 19973 1405.7 1355.8 1026.0 329.8 49.9 19974 1434.4 1369.3 1031.8 337.5 65.1 19981 1532.1 1419.7 1073.0 346.7 112.4 19982 1523.9 1465.4 1105.8 359.6 58.5 19983 1552.9 1482.4 1110.5 371.9 70.5 19984 1590.7 1524.1 1140.7 383.4 66.6 19991 1609.8 1560.6 1165.3 395.3 49.2 19992 1607.9 1593.4 1188.0 405.4 14.5 19993 1659.1 1622.4 1216.8 405.6 36.7 19994 1723.7 1651.0 1242.2 408.8 72.7 20001 1755.7 1725.8 1308.5 417.3 29.9 20002 1848.9 1795.2 1371.6 423.6 53.7 20003 1910.8 1838.3 1419.0 419.3 72.5 20004 1940.1 1880.3 1463.1 417.2 59.7 20011 1972.8 1919.5 1504.5 415.0 53.3 20012 2004.7 1956.6 1544.1 412.5 48.1 20013 2030.9 1990.8 1580.9 409.9 40.1 20014 2058.2 2024.2 1616.2 408.0 34.0 20021 2087.9 2058.1 1651.0 407.1 29.8 20022 2120.0 2092.9 1685.6 407.3 27.1 20023 2155.4 2128.9 1720.5 408.3 26.5 20024 2193.7 2166.5 1756.2 410.3 27.2 20031 2234.3 2205.8 1792.6 413.2 28.5 20032 2276.8 2246.5 1829.7 416.8 30.3 20033 2320.8 2288.6 1867.5 421.0 32.2 20034 2365.5 2331.6 1905.8 425.8 34.0 20041 2410.9 2375.4 1944.4 431.0 35.5 20042 2456.7 2419.8 1983.2 436.6 36.8 20043 2502.5 2464.7 2022.1 442.5 37.9 20044 2548.4 2509.7 2061.0 448.7 38.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19961 -75.8 853.3 929.1 1402.6 530.6 872.0 19962 -89.8 864.7 954.5 1422.9 537.2 885.7 19963 -110.5 865.6 976.1 1423.4 529.1 894.3 19964 -79.7 913.1 992.8 1438.8 529.4 909.4 19971 -89.3 927.8 1017.1 1459.2 529.2 930.0 19972 -74.9 966.8 1041.7 1486.3 543.4 942.9 19973 -88.6 988.7 1077.3 1497.9 541.3 956.6 19974 -104.6 982.4 1087.0 1508.2 538.9 969.3 19981 -117.6 975.0 1092.6 1507.6 528.0 979.6 19982 -151.9 962.8 1114.7 1538.6 544.9 993.7 19983 -167.6 947.8 1115.4 1550.3 541.4 1008.9 19984 -169.0 978.3 1147.3 1567.2 548.0 1019.2 19991 -196.1 957.3 1153.4 1595.5 554.1 1041.4 19992 -240.4 973.0 1213.4 1610.9 558.3 1052.6 19993 -280.5 999.5 1280.0 1642.5 570.4 1072.1 19994 -299.1 1031.0 1330.1 1688.9 591.6 1097.3 20001 -335.2 1051.9 1387.1 1710.5 580.1 1130.4 20002 -366.5 1075.5 1442.0 1745.9 604.7 1141.2 20003 -383.2 1107.1 1490.3 1739.5 582.5 1157.0 20004 -399.8 1137.5 1537.3 1762.9 589.4 1173.5 20011 -416.3 1166.3 1582.6 1787.0 596.6 1190.4 20012 -432.6 1193.1 1625.7 1811.7 603.9 1207.8 20013 -448.8 1217.6 1666.4 1836.7 611.3 1225.4 20014 -462.4 1242.5 1704.9 1861.9 618.7 1243.2 20021 -473.8 1267.6 1741.4 1887.2 626.2 1261.1 20022 -483.3 1293.1 1776.4 1912.8 633.7 1279.1 20023 -491.3 1319.0 1810.3 1938.5 641.2 1297.3 20024 -498.2 1345.3 1843.5 1964.5 648.8 1315.7 20031 -504.3 1372.0 1876.3 1990.8 656.4 1334.4 20032 -509.9 1399.3 1909.2 2017.4 664.2 1353.3 20033 -515.3 1427.0 1942.3 2044.4 672.0 1372.4 20034 -520.5 1455.3 1975.8 2071.8 680.0 1391.8 20041 -525.6 1484.2 2009.8 2099.6 688.0 1411.6 20042 -530.8 1513.6 2044.3 2127.7 696.1 1431.6 20043 -535.9 1543.6 2079.5 2156.2 704.3 1451.9 20044 -541.1 1574.2 2115.2 2185.1 712.7 1472.5
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7676.4 5174.4 601.7 1553.9 3018.8 19962 7802.9 5229.5 620.4 1569.9 3039.2 19963 7841.9 5254.4 618.1 1578.6 3057.7 19964 7931.3 5291.8 625.7 1593.9 3072.2 19971 8016.4 5350.8 641.5 1605.6 3103.7 19972 8131.9 5375.3 636.5 1608.2 3130.6 19973 8216.6 5462.8 670.5 1631.7 3160.6 19974 8272.9 5508.0 680.9 1634.1 3193.0 19981 8404.9 5573.7 696.4 1652.8 3224.5 19982 8465.6 5653.9 719.4 1676.3 3258.2 19983 8537.6 5713.3 726.7 1694.2 3292.4 19984 8654.5 5785.5 766.7 1716.0 3302.8 19991 8730.0 5867.0 782.7 1748.5 3335.8 19992 8783.2 5948.9 810.5 1765.0 3373.4 19993 8905.8 6023.4 826.2 1786.1 3411.1 19994 9084.1 6112.9 851.8 1818.1 3443.0 20001 9191.8 6230.2 898.2 1844.8 3487.2 20002 9308.8 6273.9 889.4 1860.9 3523.6 20003 9385.9 6330.0 897.4 1875.6 3557.0 20004 9441.8 6380.9 903.5 1888.3 3589.1 20011 9495.0 6425.7 907.4 1899.0 3619.3 20012 9542.2 6465.2 909.3 1908.1 3647.8 20013 9579.4 6500.5 909.5 1915.9 3675.1 20014 9617.6 6532.9 908.6 1923.0 3701.2 20021 9658.8 6563.2 907.2 1929.7 3726.2 20022 9702.9 6592.2 905.6 1936.2 3750.4 20023 9751.3 6620.5 904.1 1942.6 3773.8 20024 9803.3 6648.8 902.9 1949.1 3796.8 20031 9858.2 6677.2 902.2 1955.7 3819.3 20032 9915.6 6706.1 902.1 1962.5 3841.5 20033 9974.6 6735.6 902.5 1969.5 3863.6 20034 10034.7 6765.7 903.6 1976.7 3885.5 20041 10095.5 6796.5 905.1 1984.0 3907.3 20042 10156.9 6827.9 907.2 1991.6 3929.0 20043 10218.5 6859.9 909.7 1999.3 3950.8 20044 10280.3 6892.4 912.7 2007.3 3972.5
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1170.8 1165.2 861.6 303.6 5.6 19962 1234.0 1203.7 885.6 318.1 30.3 19963 1282.8 1231.6 914.3 317.3 51.2 19964 1283.1 1250.2 936.2 314.0 32.9 19971 1324.8 1275.5 960.8 314.7 49.3 19972 1399.7 1311.4 992.7 318.7 88.3 19973 1408.6 1357.3 1037.0 320.3 51.3 19974 1438.0 1371.9 1047.0 324.9 66.1 19981 1545.7 1428.4 1096.0 332.4 117.3 19982 1539.7 1478.8 1136.4 342.4 60.9 19983 1570.3 1497.2 1146.3 350.9 73.1 19984 1610.2 1540.8 1182.3 358.5 69.4 19991 1623.2 1575.1 1209.4 365.7 48.1 19992 1621.5 1608.4 1237.5 370.9 13.1 19993 1679.6 1640.5 1272.5 368.0 39.1 19994 1751.2 1670.3 1301.8 368.5 80.9 20001 1773.3 1736.7 1365.3 371.4 36.6 20002 1861.5 1801.2 1426.2 375.0 60.3 20003 1914.0 1833.2 1464.8 368.5 80.8 20004 1928.6 1862.5 1498.7 363.8 66.1 20011 1946.5 1888.0 1528.9 359.1 58.4 20012 1963.2 1910.7 1556.7 354.1 52.4 20013 1973.6 1930.2 1581.2 349.0 43.3 20014 1985.1 1948.6 1603.9 344.7 36.5 20021 1998.9 1967.2 1625.8 341.3 31.7 20022 2014.8 1986.2 1647.3 338.9 28.6 20023 2033.8 2006.0 1668.9 337.2 27.8 20024 2055.3 2027.1 1690.7 336.3 28.3 20031 2078.6 2049.2 1713.0 336.2 29.4 20032 2103.2 2072.2 1735.6 336.6 31.1 20033 2128.6 2095.8 1758.3 337.5 32.7 20034 2154.2 2119.9 1781.1 338.8 34.3 20041 2179.8 2144.3 1803.8 340.4 35.6 20042 2205.2 2168.6 1826.3 342.3 36.6 20043 2230.1 2192.7 1848.4 344.4 37.4 20044 2254.6 2216.6 1870.0 346.6 38.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19961 -75.0 846.1 921.1 1404.8 19962 -90.3 860.1 950.4 1430.4 19963 -115.9 867.0 982.9 1422.0 19964 -74.6 923.5 998.1 1430.6 19971 -94.0 940.3 1034.3 1434.5 19972 -100.6 979.2 1079.8 1457.0 19973 -119.6 1004.2 1123.8 1464.8 19974 -139.1 1002.1 1141.2 1465.2 19981 -175.3 1004.5 1179.8 1461.4 19982 -219.8 996.8 1216.6 1487.5 19983 -244.1 988.8 1232.9 1492.6 19984 -244.9 1024.1 1269.0 1503.1 19991 -279.8 1003.3 1283.1 1516.7 19992 -314.6 1017.6 1332.2 1519.6 19993 -342.6 1042.6 1385.2 1537.4 19994 -352.5 1068.4 1420.9 1569.3 20001 -376.9 1084.8 1461.7 1564.5 20002 -416.1 1104.2 1520.3 1587.8 20003 -431.4 1128.2 1559.6 1571.5 20004 -446.8 1150.2 1597.0 1577.4 20011 -462.1 1169.8 1631.9 1583.3 20012 -477.1 1187.0 1664.0 1589.3 20013 -491.7 1201.5 1693.2 1595.2 20014 -503.2 1216.3 1719.5 1601.2 20021 -512.2 1231.2 1743.4 1607.3 20022 -519.1 1246.3 1765.4 1613.3 20023 -524.2 1261.6 1785.8 1619.5 20024 -528.0 1277.1 1805.1 1625.6 20031 -531.0 1292.7 1823.8 1631.8 20032 -533.4 1308.6 1842.1 1638.0 20033 -535.5 1324.7 1860.2 1644.2 20034 -537.4 1340.9 1878.3 1650.5 20041 -539.2 1357.4 1896.6 1656.8 20042 -540.9 1374.0 1915.0 1663.1 20043 -542.7 1390.9 1933.6 1669.5 20044 -544.3 1408.0 1952.3 1675.9
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1711.7 807.0 209.1 95.1 600.5 19982 1740.3 826.2 210.6 95.8 607.7 19983 1772.6 845.9 213.3 97.5 615.9 19984 1791.4 864.8 205.1 97.3 624.2 19991 1817.5 868.7 212.3 97.9 638.6 19992 1849.7 888.5 214.9 98.9 647.4 19993 1890.3 913.7 217.8 101.4 657.4 19994 1941.0 938.2 232.3 103.9 666.6 20001 2012.0 978.0 245.7 106.8 681.5 20002 2059.7 1003.8 256.1 108.6 691.2 20003 2081.9 1010.9 258.2 110.4 702.4 20004 2113.3 1032.4 255.5 112.1 713.3 20011 2144.8 1054.5 252.6 113.8 723.9 20012 2174.7 1075.4 249.6 115.5 734.2 20013 2201.6 1094.8 246.0 117.0 743.8 20014 2228.5 1113.8 243.0 118.5 753.2 20021 2256.0 1132.8 240.6 120.0 762.5 20022 2284.1 1151.9 238.8 121.5 771.9 20023 2313.3 1171.3 237.6 123.0 781.4 20024 2343.6 1191.1 236.8 124.4 791.2 20031 2374.9 1211.4 236.4 125.9 801.2 20032 2407.3 1232.2 236.3 127.4 811.4 20033 2440.5 1253.5 236.3 129.0 821.8 20034 2474.4 1275.1 236.4 130.5 832.4 20041 2509.0 1297.2 236.6 132.1 843.2 20042 2544.2 1319.5 236.9 133.7 854.2 20043 2579.9 1342.2 237.2 135.3 865.2 20044 2616.1 1365.2 237.6 137.0 876.4
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19961 1623.4 441.8 686.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 684.7 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 689.2 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 705.8 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1659.2 451.3 709.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 714.1 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 717.2 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 729.4 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1685.7 445.5 726.9 718.8 8.1 205.0 279.6 28.7 26.0 19982 1698.4 457.5 726.6 719.6 7.0 205.4 280.2 28.7 41.9 19983 1700.5 451.0 730.8 721.7 9.1 209.9 280.0 28.8 72.1 19984 1735.0 460.7 739.6 720.5 19.1 216.1 275.4 43.2 56.4 19991 1727.7 464.5 738.6 730.3 8.3 223.0 267.7 33.9 89.8 19992 1732.3 460.2 742.9 732.9 10.0 221.4 267.1 40.7 117.4 19993 1743.0 471.3 745.0 735.9 9.1 234.0 262.2 30.5 147.3 19994 1797.6 487.0 757.7 738.8 18.9 238.8 261.8 52.3 143.4 20001 1776.0 478.7 763.2 754.9 8.3 235.0 265.0 34.1 236.0 20002 1814.8 499.9 777.2 769.9 7.3 240.7 262.0 35.0 244.9 20003 1807.7 476.4 792.2 784.9 7.3 245.4 258.8 35.0 274.3 20004 1836.4 482.0 807.4 800.1 7.3 250.1 261.8 35.0 276.9 20011 1867.4 487.9 822.9 815.6 7.3 255.0 266.6 35.0 277.4 20012 1896.3 493.9 838.8 831.5 7.3 260.0 268.7 35.0 278.4 20013 1923.6 499.9 854.9 847.6 7.3 265.0 268.8 35.0 278.0 20014 1951.1 505.9 871.4 864.1 7.3 270.2 268.6 35.0 277.4 20021 1979.2 512.0 888.2 880.9 7.3 275.4 268.6 35.0 276.8 20022 2007.4 518.1 905.3 898.0 7.3 280.8 268.3 35.0 276.6 20023 2035.7 524.2 922.8 915.5 7.3 286.2 267.5 35.0 277.6 20024 2064.2 530.4 940.5 933.2 7.3 291.8 266.5 35.0 279.4 20031 2093.0 536.6 958.7 951.4 7.3 297.4 265.3 35.0 281.9 20032 2122.2 542.9 977.2 969.9 7.3 303.2 263.9 35.0 285.1 20033 2151.6 549.2 996.0 988.7 7.3 309.1 262.3 35.0 288.9 20034 2181.4 555.6 1015.2 1007.9 7.3 315.1 260.4 35.0 293.1 20041 2211.4 562.1 1034.8 1027.5 7.3 321.2 258.3 35.0 297.6 20042 2241.8 568.7 1054.7 1047.4 7.3 327.5 255.9 35.0 302.4 20043 2272.5 575.4 1075.1 1067.8 7.3 333.8 253.2 35.0 307.5 20044 2303.5 582.1 1095.8 1088.5 7.3 340.3 250.2 35.0 312.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.5 228.8 35.1 569.3 10.3 205.0 19982 1057.1 230.2 35.3 576.1 10.1 205.4 19983 1075.4 238.1 35.8 581.7 9.9 209.9 19984 1108.2 242.7 34.3 605.3 9.8 216.1 19991 1111.9 244.5 35.5 599.3 9.6 223.0 19992 1120.9 244.9 35.9 609.1 9.6 221.4 19993 1150.3 250.3 36.3 620.2 9.5 234.0 19994 1187.6 259.2 38.5 641.6 9.5 238.8 20001 1195.9 261.4 40.6 649.2 9.7 235.0 20002 1216.9 268.4 42.3 655.6 9.9 240.7 20003 1237.1 272.5 42.7 666.3 10.1 245.4 20004 1257.7 278.1 42.2 676.9 10.4 250.1 20011 1278.3 283.7 41.7 687.1 10.7 255.0 20012 1298.2 289.1 41.2 697.0 10.9 260.0 20013 1317.3 294.1 40.6 706.5 11.2 265.0 20014 1336.3 298.9 40.2 715.7 11.4 270.2 20021 1355.3 303.8 39.8 724.7 11.7 275.4 20022 1374.4 308.7 39.5 733.5 12.0 280.8 20023 1393.8 313.7 39.3 742.4 12.2 286.2 20024 1413.4 318.8 39.1 751.3 12.5 291.8 20031 1433.4 323.9 39.1 760.2 12.8 297.4 20032 1453.8 329.3 39.0 769.3 13.1 303.2 20033 1474.6 334.7 39.0 778.5 13.3 309.1 20034 1495.8 340.2 39.1 787.8 13.6 315.1 20041 1517.4 345.8 39.1 797.3 13.9 321.2 20042 1539.4 351.5 39.1 807.0 14.2 327.5 20043 1561.7 357.3 39.2 816.9 14.5 333.8 20044 1584.4 363.2 39.3 826.9 14.8 340.3
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 0.0 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 0.0 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 0.0 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 0.0 19.4 19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 0.0 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 0.0 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 0.0 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 0.0 38.3 19981 1010.3 792.2 229.8 -0.4 0.4 -10.9 0.0 38.2 19982 1023.9 803.5 232.1 -0.4 0.4 -10.9 0.0 33.2 19983 1037.8 814.5 235.2 -0.6 0.4 -10.9 0.0 37.6 19984 1050.5 823.4 239.3 -1.0 0.4 -10.8 0.0 57.7 19991 1064.1 832.1 245.4 -2.1 0.3 -11.0 0.0 47.8 19992 1082.8 847.2 249.7 -2.7 0.4 -11.0 0.0 38.1 19993 1102.9 863.1 254.5 -3.3 0.4 -11.0 0.0 47.4 19994 1121.0 877.4 258.5 -3.6 0.4 -10.9 0.0 66.6 20001 1143.9 897.5 261.6 -4.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 52.0 20002 1161.5 911.3 265.6 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 55.4 20003 1178.0 924.3 269.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 59.1 20004 1194.5 937.9 272.0 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 63.2 20011 1211.9 952.0 275.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 66.4 20012 1230.2 966.4 279.2 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 68.0 20013 1249.3 981.1 283.6 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 68.0 20014 1269.0 995.8 288.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 67.4 20021 1289.0 1010.7 293.7 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 66.3 20022 1309.3 1025.6 299.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 65.1 20023 1329.8 1040.7 304.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 63.9 20024 1350.6 1056.0 310.0 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 62.8 20031 1371.6 1071.5 315.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 61.8 20032 1392.8 1087.1 321.1 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 61.0 20033 1414.4 1103.0 326.8 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 60.3 20034 1436.2 1119.1 332.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 59.6 20041 1458.4 1135.5 338.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 59.0 20042 1481.0 1152.1 344.2 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 58.4 20043 1503.9 1169.0 350.3 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 57.8 20044 1527.2 1186.1 356.5 -4.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 57.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19961 99.4 99.1 100.8 99.1 98.9 19962 99.7 99.8 100.1 100.0 99.6 19963 100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.3 19964 100.6 100.9 99.3 100.9 101.2 19971 101.3 101.5 99.0 101.3 102.1 19972 101.8 101.8 98.1 101.2 102.8 19973 102.1 102.1 97.3 101.3 103.5 19974 102.5 102.4 96.7 101.5 104.1 19981 102.7 102.5 96.3 101.2 104.5 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.1 105.2 19983 103.4 103.2 95.3 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.5 94.4 101.7 106.5 19991 104.3 103.9 93.8 102.2 107.2 19992 104.6 104.4 93.3 103.4 107.7 19993 104.9 104.9 92.9 104.1 108.3 19994 105.2 105.5 92.5 105.1 108.9 20001 106.1 106.3 92.0 106.5 109.9 20002 106.8 106.9 91.8 107.3 110.5 20003 107.5 107.7 92.5 108.1 111.3 20004 108.3 108.6 93.2 109.0 112.2 20011 109.3 109.4 94.0 109.8 113.1 20012 110.2 110.3 94.7 110.7 114.0 20013 111.2 111.2 95.5 111.6 114.9 20014 112.1 112.1 96.2 112.5 115.8 20021 113.0 113.0 97.0 113.3 116.7 20022 113.9 113.9 97.7 114.2 117.6 20023 114.9 114.7 98.5 115.1 118.5 20024 115.8 115.6 99.2 115.9 119.4 20031 116.7 116.5 99.9 116.8 120.3 20032 117.6 117.4 100.7 117.7 121.2 20033 118.5 118.3 101.4 118.6 122.1 20034 119.4 119.2 102.2 119.4 123.0 20041 120.3 120.1 102.9 120.3 123.9 20042 121.2 121.0 103.7 121.2 124.8 20043 122.2 121.9 104.5 122.1 125.7 20044 123.1 122.8 105.2 123.0 126.7
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19961 100.0 100.4 99.0 100.9 100.9 99.8 19962 99.8 100.0 99.4 100.5 100.4 99.5 19963 100.1 99.9 100.5 99.8 99.3 100.1 19964 100.1 99.7 101.0 98.9 99.5 100.6 19971 100.0 99.4 101.7 98.7 98.3 101.7 19972 99.9 99.2 102.2 98.7 96.5 102.0 19973 99.9 98.9 103.0 98.5 95.9 102.3 19974 99.8 98.5 103.9 98.0 95.3 102.9 19981 99.4 97.9 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.1 97.3 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.4 19983 99.0 96.9 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.9 96.5 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.3 19991 99.1 96.4 108.1 95.4 89.9 105.2 19992 99.1 96.0 109.3 95.6 91.1 106.0 19993 98.9 95.6 110.2 95.9 92.4 106.8 19994 98.8 95.4 110.9 96.5 93.6 107.6 20001 99.4 95.8 112.4 97.0 94.9 109.3 20002 99.7 96.2 113.0 97.4 94.8 110.0 20003 100.3 96.9 113.8 98.1 95.6 110.7 20004 101.0 97.6 114.7 98.9 96.3 111.8 20011 101.7 98.4 115.6 99.7 97.0 112.9 20012 102.4 99.2 116.5 100.5 97.7 114.0 20013 103.1 100.0 117.4 101.3 98.4 115.1 20014 103.9 100.8 118.4 102.2 99.1 116.3 20021 104.6 101.5 119.3 103.0 99.9 117.4 20022 105.4 102.3 120.2 103.8 100.6 118.6 20023 106.1 103.1 121.1 104.5 101.4 119.7 20024 106.9 103.9 122.0 105.3 102.1 120.8 20031 107.6 104.6 122.9 106.1 102.9 122.0 20032 108.4 105.4 123.8 106.9 103.6 123.2 20033 109.2 106.2 124.8 107.7 104.4 124.3 20034 110.0 107.0 125.7 108.5 105.2 125.5 20041 110.8 107.8 126.6 109.3 106.0 126.7 20042 111.6 108.6 127.6 110.2 106.8 127.9 20043 112.4 109.4 128.5 111.0 107.5 129.2 20044 113.2 110.2 129.5 111.8 108.3 130.4
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment