US Forecast: July 27, 2001
Forecast Period

2001:3--2005:4 (18 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 27, 2001.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2001:2. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the previous version of the US model (April 27, 2001) is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. The only change made for the current version (July 27, 2001) is that equation 9, which explains the demand for money of the household sector, is now estimated under the assumption of a fourth order autoregressive error. For discussion of the various versions of the models on this site, see Current Versions and References and Previous Versions and References.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2001:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2001:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  4.4       
COG           3.0                  0.7       
JG            1.0                 -1.4       
TRGS          8.0                  7.1       
TRSH          7.0                  6.5       
COS           3.0  (beg. 2001:4)   6.2       
JS            1.0                  1.7       
EX            5.0  (beg. 2001:4)   7.0
PIM           2.0                 -0.5

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

The tax cut package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in May of this year has been incorporated into the current forecast. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimates of the tax reductions by fiscal year, and these estimates were used as a guide in choosing values for D1G, the personal income tax parameter in the model. D1G was adjusted in the manner discussed in Section 5.2 of The US Model Workbook, experiment 5.5. You can examine the values for D1G to see what was done. Of the $38 billion rebate, half was put in 2001:3 and half in 2001:4. The tax reduction in each of the fiscal years 2003, 2004, and 2005 is roughly $100 billion.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click in the left menu "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2005:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2003. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions out a number of years.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The main feature of the forecast is that the economy is not predicted to grow at a rate greater than 2 percent for the forseeable future. This leads the unemployment rate to rise to 5.5 percent by the middle of 2004.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be less than 3 percent throughout the forecast period. It falls slightly over time, which is due to the rising unemployment rate.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1 and 2001:2 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be around 4 percent for the next three years. If the Fed cuts the rate in August, this will be another example of the Fed being more aggressive than the interest rate rule predicts.

Other Variables: The household saving rate (variable SRZ in the model) remains low throughout the forecast period. The federal government budget surplus (SGP) is forecast to be between $178.5 and $205.3 billion throughout the forecast period. These values are down sharply from the values for the April 27, 2000, forecast (before the tax cut), which were $263.9 and $339.5 billion, respectively. Most of these changes are due to the tax cut. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (between $434.7 and $521.5 billion).

Stimulus Needed in 2002 and 2003? If the aim for 2002 and 2003 is to get growth above 2 percent and to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, then the forecast says that more stimulus is needed. One possibility is for the Fed to keep interest rates lower than the model is predicting it will do. You can do this in the model by dropping equation 30 and exogenously lowering RS. The other possibility is for there to be a further tax cut or a government spending increase. According to the model, the current tax cut is not large enough (through 2005) to do the job.

Two reasons the model is predicting sluggish growth are 1) the recent drop in household wealth from the fall in the stock market and 2) the currently large stocks of durable goods and housing due to large past values of durable goods spending and housing investment. Other things equal, large stocks of durable goods and housing have negative effects on future durable goods spending and housing investment. In other words, these "initial conditions" are negative regarding future demand.

Uncertainties

There are two main uncertainties regarding the current forecast. The first concerns inflation. The unemployment rate enters linearly in the price equation (equation 10), but at some point one would expect to see large (i.e., nonlinear) price increases in response to a low unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this nonlinearity, and so there are no nonlinear effects in the model. It could thus be that inflation will be even worse in the future than the model is predicting if the economy has been in this nonlinear zone and is about to feel the effects.

The second main uncertainty concerns the stock market. Even though the stock market has fallen substantially in the past few months, price/earnings ratios are still very high by historical standards, and it may be that a further correction will take place. There is a stock price equation in the model (equation 25, explaining CG), but it cannot pick up booms and crashes. The equation is predicting that stock prices will grow modestly in the future. If, on the other hand, the stock market crashes, the effect on the economy through the wealth effect could be substantial. If you want to see this, you can run an experiment in which you crash the stock market (see Chapter 7 of The US Model Workbook for how to do this). You will see that a large sustained crash leads to a recession even if you assume that the Fed substantially lowers the interest rate in response to the crash. In other words, the model has the property that the Fed does not have the power to prevent a recession if there is a large crash.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do if the economy remains sluggish.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits or surpluses than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit or surplus that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will keep RS low, contrary to what equation 30 is predicting?

Given the above discussion about nonlinearities and inflation, you may want to experiment with the price equation (equation 10). Will inflation be higher than predicted because of the low unemployment rates?

Related to the inflation question, the current forecast is based on the assumption that the price of imports (PIM) grows at a rate of 2 percent per year throughout the forecast period. A strong dollar helps keep PIM down, but oil price increases push it up. It may be that the assumption of 2 percent is too optimistic, and you may want to experiment with higher values. This will, of course, make inflation even worse in the future.

The real value of exports (EX) has been assumed to remain unchanged in 2001:3 and than to grow at an annual rate of 5 percent after that. Given that the world economy is not doing real well, a 5 percent value may be too high. You may want to try lower values. This will, of course, make the U.S. economy even more sluggish than is predicted.

Finally, as discussed above, you may want to crash the stock market.

US Forecast Tables: July 27, 2001
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19971 8016.4 4.4 3103.7 4.2 1605.6 3.0 641.5 10.5 19972 8131.9 5.9 3130.6 3.5 1608.2 0.6 636.5 -3.1 19973 8216.6 4.2 3160.6 3.9 1631.7 6.0 670.5 23.1 19974 8272.9 2.8 3193.0 4.2 1634.1 0.6 680.9 6.4 19981 8396.3 6.1 3228.4 4.5 1656.3 5.5 692.5 7.0 19982 8442.9 2.2 3262.3 4.3 1680.5 6.0 719.7 16.7 19983 8528.5 4.1 3295.2 4.1 1693.6 3.2 727.1 4.2 19984 8667.9 6.7 3307.6 1.5 1715.3 5.2 767.3 24.0 19991 8733.5 3.1 3340.8 4.1 1738.8 5.6 780.5 7.1 19992 8771.2 1.7 3377.8 4.5 1757.2 4.3 809.5 15.7 19993 8871.5 4.7 3413.7 4.3 1768.6 2.6 827.2 9.0 19994 9049.9 8.3 3440.5 3.2 1801.1 7.6 854.2 13.7 20001 9102.5 2.3 3472.2 3.7 1823.8 5.1 892.1 19.0 20002 9229.4 5.7 3509.6 4.4 1844.9 4.7 886.5 -2.5 20003 9260.1 1.3 3540.2 3.5 1864.1 4.2 904.1 8.2 20004 9303.9 1.9 3588.8 5.6 1866.8 0.6 899.4 -2.1 20011 9334.5 1.3 3605.1 1.8 1878.0 2.4 922.4 10.6 20012 9351.6 0.7 3625.2 2.2 1880.1 0.4 935.9 6.0 20013 9397.5 2.0 3659.3 3.8 1884.8 1.0 935.8 0.0 20014 9429.5 1.4 3690.1 3.4 1890.0 1.1 935.5 -0.1 20021 9468.4 1.7 3718.6 3.1 1895.5 1.2 934.4 -0.5 20022 9513.5 1.9 3746.1 3.0 1901.7 1.3 933.9 -0.2 20023 9556.5 1.8 3772.3 2.8 1908.6 1.5 934.0 0.0 20024 9602.0 1.9 3797.5 2.7 1915.9 1.5 934.6 0.2 20031 9649.0 2.0 3821.9 2.6 1923.5 1.6 935.7 0.5 20032 9696.6 2.0 3845.8 2.5 1931.5 1.7 937.4 0.7 20033 9745.7 2.0 3869.3 2.5 1939.8 1.7 939.6 1.0 20034 9796.1 2.1 3892.4 2.4 1948.3 1.8 942.4 1.2 20041 9847.7 2.1 3915.4 2.4 1957.1 1.8 945.7 1.4 20042 9900.8 2.2 3938.3 2.4 1966.1 1.9 949.6 1.6 20043 9955.0 2.2 3961.1 2.3 1975.4 1.9 953.9 1.8 20044 10010.4 2.2 3984.1 2.3 1984.9 1.9 958.7 2.0 20051 10067.1 2.3 4007.2 2.3 1994.7 2.0 964.1 2.2 20052 10124.8 2.3 4030.4 2.3 2004.6 2.0 969.8 2.4 20053 10183.5 2.3 4053.9 2.4 2014.8 2.0 976.0 2.6 20054 10243.2 2.4 4077.7 2.4 2025.2 2.1 982.5 2.7
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19971 274.5 9.8 814.6 9.2 49.3 1034.3 15.3 19972 278.0 5.2 845.1 15.8 88.3 1079.8 18.8 19973 279.4 2.0 886.5 21.1 51.3 1123.8 17.3 19974 283.4 5.9 895.1 3.9 66.1 1141.2 6.3 19981 294.3 16.4 943.8 23.6 113.1 1184.2 15.9 19982 300.7 8.9 973.5 13.2 42.0 1216.2 11.3 19983 308.7 11.1 977.1 1.5 71.8 1228.9 4.2 19984 315.7 9.4 1013.8 15.9 80.0 1264.8 12.2 19991 314.3 -1.8 1031.4 7.1 83.4 1290.6 8.4 19992 316.1 2.3 1052.8 8.5 32.7 1331.4 13.3 19993 315.8 -0.3 1081.1 11.2 39.6 1375.1 13.8 19994 317.3 1.9 1097.1 6.0 92.7 1409.8 10.5 20001 324.9 9.9 1140.5 16.8 28.9 1466.6 17.1 20002 323.9 -1.2 1176.7 13.3 78.9 1523.4 16.4 20003 315.3 -10.2 1198.2 7.5 51.7 1570.6 13.0 20004 314.6 -0.8 1200.5 0.8 42.8 1568.5 -0.5 20011 321.7 9.3 1197.2 -1.1 -27.1 1548.6 -5.0 20012 327.5 7.4 1154.1 -13.6 -26.9 1522.0 -6.7 20013 327.9 0.4 1158.0 1.4 9.2 1552.2 8.2 20014 327.6 -0.4 1161.8 1.3 5.2 1578.6 7.0 20021 323.9 -4.4 1165.8 1.4 10.7 1601.7 6.0 20022 320.3 -4.4 1171.2 1.9 18.1 1622.6 5.3 20023 317.6 -3.4 1177.3 2.1 19.9 1642.0 4.9 20024 315.5 -2.6 1183.6 2.1 22.7 1660.4 4.6 20031 313.8 -2.1 1190.4 2.3 24.8 1678.3 4.4 20032 312.6 -1.5 1197.4 2.4 25.9 1695.8 4.2 20033 311.9 -0.9 1204.6 2.4 27.1 1713.2 4.2 20034 311.8 -0.2 1212.1 2.5 28.1 1730.7 4.1 20041 312.1 0.4 1219.9 2.6 29.0 1748.4 4.2 20042 312.8 0.9 1227.9 2.7 29.9 1766.4 4.2 20043 313.8 1.3 1236.3 2.7 30.7 1784.7 4.2 20044 315.1 1.7 1244.9 2.8 31.5 1803.5 4.3 20051 316.8 2.1 1253.8 2.9 32.3 1822.8 4.3 20052 318.6 2.3 1263.1 3.0 33.1 1842.6 4.4 20053 320.6 2.5 1272.6 3.0 33.9 1862.9 4.5 20054 322.7 2.7 1282.3 3.1 34.6 1883.8 4.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19971 2.9 4.4 1.4 -2.9 19972 1.9 2.0 1.8 -0.2 19973 1.2 1.6 5.6 4.0 19974 1.4 1.6 5.5 3.8 19981 1.1 1.0 7.1 6.1 19982 1.0 1.1 7.2 6.1 19983 1.4 1.6 5.3 3.6 19984 1.1 0.1 5.3 5.2 19991 1.8 2.6 4.9 2.2 19992 1.3 1.6 4.7 3.1 19993 1.4 1.1 4.8 3.6 19994 1.6 1.8 4.8 3.0 20001 3.8 3.5 4.8 1.3 20002 2.2 2.0 9.7 7.6 20003 1.9 2.0 7.8 5.7 20004 1.7 2.1 11.3 9.0 20011 3.3 2.9 4.5 1.6 20012 2.3 2.3 6.3 4.0 20013 2.7 2.6 4.0 1.4 20014 2.8 2.5 4.0 1.5 20021 2.7 2.5 4.0 1.5 20022 2.6 2.5 4.0 1.5 20023 2.6 2.4 4.1 1.6 20024 2.6 2.4 4.1 1.6 20031 2.6 2.4 4.1 1.6 20032 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.7 20033 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.7 20034 2.5 2.3 4.1 1.7 20041 2.5 2.3 4.1 1.7 20042 2.5 2.3 4.1 1.8 20043 2.5 2.3 4.1 1.8 20044 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.8 20051 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.8 20052 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.8 20053 2.4 2.3 4.2 1.8 20054 2.4 2.3 4.2 1.8
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1222.9 6.2 65.1 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1239.3 5.5 69.8 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1235.3 -1.3 70.4 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.2 4.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1263.9 4.8 72.8 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1277.6 4.4 71.6 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1290.2 4.0 74.1 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1310.7 6.5 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1321.1 3.2 71.7 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1328.5 2.3 73.0 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1345.6 5.2 72.2 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.3 18.3 90.3 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1382.8 -5.7 64.4 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1378.3 -1.3 65.8 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1383.0 1.4 61.5 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1388.1 1.5 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1407.4 5.7 70.0 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1421.2 4.0 70.7 20013 3.8 7.3 7.0 1433.4 3.5 69.9 20014 4.3 7.3 7.1 1431.6 -0.5 68.4 20021 4.3 7.2 7.2 1448.7 4.8 68.9 20022 4.2 7.1 7.1 1457.8 2.5 68.8 20023 4.1 7.0 7.1 1468.9 3.1 68.8 20024 4.2 6.9 7.1 1474.4 1.5 68.4 20031 4.2 6.8 7.1 1488.1 3.8 68.7 20032 4.1 6.7 7.1 1497.5 2.5 68.6 20033 4.0 6.7 7.1 1509.0 3.1 68.8 20034 4.0 6.6 7.1 1518.2 2.5 68.7 20041 3.9 6.5 7.0 1531.1 3.4 68.9 20042 3.9 6.5 7.0 1541.9 2.9 68.9 20043 3.8 6.4 6.9 1554.3 3.3 69.1 20044 3.7 6.3 6.9 1565.7 3.0 69.2 20051 3.7 6.2 6.8 1579.0 3.4 69.4 20052 3.6 6.2 6.8 1591.4 3.2 69.6 20053 3.5 6.1 6.7 1604.9 3.4 69.8 20054 3.4 6.0 6.7 1618.0 3.3 70.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19971 5.2 1.6 0.5 3.2 3.2 2.0 7.1 19972 5.0 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.1 2.5 6.8 19973 4.9 1.4 3.4 -0.9 1.4 2.0 6.6 19974 4.7 -0.3 -1.8 6.0 3.0 1.7 6.4 19981 4.7 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.5 0.7 6.4 19982 4.4 0.4 -0.9 2.3 2.6 1.4 6.1 19983 4.5 0.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.1 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 0.8 3.9 1.9 2.1 6.1 19991 4.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 5.9 19992 4.3 -0.5 -0.3 3.5 2.2 0.8 5.9 19993 4.2 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.4 5.9 19994 4.1 0.7 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.9 5.7 20001 4.1 1.4 1.9 3.1 2.9 2.3 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.8 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 5.6 20003 4.0 0.5 -2.2 0.8 0.6 -0.4 5.7 20004 4.0 0.5 0.4 3.7 0.4 1.6 5.6 20011 4.2 0.9 3.6 1.1 1.7 0.8 6.0 20012 4.5 0.3 -2.2 -1.6 -0.7 -2.1 6.3 20013 4.7 1.0 2.3 2.0 0.6 1.0 6.6 20014 4.8 1.0 2.3 2.0 0.9 1.2 6.8 20021 4.8 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.4 6.9 20022 4.9 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.5 7.0 20023 4.9 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.4 7.1 20024 5.0 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.4 7.3 20031 5.1 0.9 2.3 1.8 1.0 1.3 7.4 20032 5.2 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.9 1.3 7.5 20033 5.2 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.9 1.3 7.7 20034 5.3 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.9 1.3 7.8 20041 5.4 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.9 1.2 8.0 20042 5.5 0.9 2.3 1.7 0.9 1.2 8.1 20043 5.6 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 8.3 20044 5.6 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 8.4 20051 5.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 8.6 20052 5.8 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 8.7 20053 5.8 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 8.9 20054 5.9 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.9 1.3 9.0
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19971 376.6 578.4 -4.4 4.3 -0.4 117.5 -86.5 23.5 19972 6364.9 596.4 13.0 4.7 3.1 100.1 -68.2 26.6 19973 3589.6 631.4 25.6 4.0 2.8 120.2 -33.8 35.4 19974 1692.8 620.6 -6.7 4.3 0.5 154.6 -25.0 38.3 19981 6535.1 564.9 -31.4 5.1 4.4 155.6 19.6 36.8 19982 611.0 566.2 0.9 5.0 0.5 192.5 33.0 32.0 19983 -6475.0 568.1 1.3 5.0 3.1 222.8 65.7 35.7 19984 9203.8 550.2 -12.0 4.4 4.9 227.9 57.1 58.4 19991 2357.4 570.8 15.8 3.7 2.6 247.8 85.1 49.0 19992 3943.6 577.8 5.0 2.8 -0.1 292.0 116.5 36.2 19993 -3164.5 572.7 -3.5 2.3 2.7 334.7 132.0 38.4 19994 13290.2 613.8 31.9 1.6 6.4 352.2 143.2 45.0 20001 2757.3 631.3 11.9 0.8 -1.6 399.8 212.8 33.2 20002 -3969.2 657.3 17.5 1.3 7.5 417.5 209.0 34.7 20003 -670.0 649.1 -4.9 0.8 1.4 451.4 229.9 34.8 20004 -6551.2 605.1 -24.5 1.1 3.2 453.3 222.4 28.7 20011 -7194.6 545.1 -34.1 1.1 -1.9 420.2 205.4 22.3 20012 1200.0 527.4 -12.4 1.2 2.0 405.4 193.5 19.7 20013 1122.1 546.1 14.9 1.1 1.6 434.7 187.6 31.8 20014 1015.4 549.6 2.6 1.0 0.8 447.3 178.5 30.8 20021 1229.8 555.6 4.5 0.8 0.9 456.8 186.1 29.8 20022 1287.8 564.6 6.6 0.7 1.1 464.0 187.6 29.3 20023 1231.0 571.9 5.3 0.7 1.0 469.7 188.2 28.5 20024 1244.8 581.6 6.9 0.6 1.2 474.4 189.3 27.7 20031 1285.5 592.3 7.6 0.6 1.3 478.3 189.0 26.7 20032 1302.8 603.8 7.9 0.6 1.3 481.8 190.0 25.7 20033 1328.6 616.5 8.7 0.5 1.4 485.1 191.1 24.6 20034 1348.7 630.2 9.2 0.5 1.4 488.4 192.4 23.5 20041 1376.3 644.9 9.6 0.5 1.5 491.6 193.4 22.5 20042 1397.7 660.4 10.0 0.5 1.5 495.1 194.8 21.5 20043 1422.9 676.7 10.3 0.5 1.6 498.7 196.4 20.5 20044 1445.4 693.7 10.4 0.4 1.6 502.6 198.1 19.6 20051 1470.8 711.5 10.6 0.4 1.6 506.8 199.1 18.8 20052 1491.5 729.8 10.7 0.4 1.7 511.3 201.1 18.1 20053 1514.4 748.7 10.7 0.4 1.7 516.2 203.2 17.5 20054 1535.9 767.9 10.7 0.4 1.7 521.5 205.3 17.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19971 -8.9 11.1 7.5 702.1 9.8 -4.5 19972 26.2 7.8 17.6 706.3 2.4 -7.4 19973 -1.6 7.5 10.6 709.2 1.7 -2.5 19974 -3.5 3.0 -0.8 709.8 0.3 -2.5 19981 -20.9 2.1 0.5 719.8 5.8 -10.6 19982 28.9 10.4 -4.0 719.2 -0.3 -4.3 19983 -9.2 11.5 -2.2 720.3 0.6 -4.8 19984 11.5 7.2 16.3 719.3 -0.6 -0.2 19991 -7.3 14.6 -6.8 731.6 7.0 -2.4 19992 3.0 1.0 4.2 734.0 1.3 5.4 19993 16.1 3.4 9.7 735.1 0.6 6.0 19994 32.3 11.0 12.2 737.3 1.2 5.4 20001 -27.0 11.6 9.0 750.0 7.1 6.2 20002 26.7 -6.7 13.4 765.2 8.4 0.8 20003 -18.3 4.3 10.5 768.7 1.8 4.5 20004 11.1 3.8 -4.0 777.4 4.6 0.5 20011 6.7 13.4 -1.2 805.8 15.4 -3.0 20012 2.9 17.0 -9.9 816.0 5.2 -5.2 20013 3.0 -8.4 0.0 831.9 8.0 2.0 20014 3.0 3.0 5.0 848.0 8.0 2.0 20021 3.0 3.0 5.0 864.5 8.0 2.0 20022 3.0 3.0 5.0 881.3 8.0 2.0 20023 3.0 3.0 5.0 898.4 8.0 2.0 20024 3.0 3.0 5.0 915.9 8.0 2.0 20031 3.0 3.0 5.0 933.6 8.0 2.0 20032 3.0 3.0 5.0 951.8 8.0 2.0 20033 3.0 3.0 5.0 970.3 8.0 2.0 20034 3.0 3.0 5.0 989.1 8.0 2.0 20041 3.0 3.0 5.0 1008.3 8.0 2.0 20042 3.0 3.0 5.0 1027.9 8.0 2.0 20043 3.0 3.0 5.0 1047.9 8.0 2.0 20044 3.0 3.0 5.0 1068.3 8.0 2.0 20051 3.0 3.0 5.0 1089.0 8.0 2.0 20052 3.0 3.0 5.0 1110.2 8.0 2.0 20053 3.0 3.0 5.0 1131.7 8.0 2.0 20054 3.0 3.0 5.0 1153.7 8.0 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1818.2 871.3 212.2 97.2 637.5 19992 1849.5 891.8 213.8 97.9 646.0 19993 1887.0 914.3 216.3 101.0 655.4 19994 1936.5 935.9 230.8 106.1 663.7 20001 2003.0 976.6 239.3 108.6 678.5 20002 2042.5 1001.1 242.3 111.5 687.6 20003 2064.3 1019.8 237.6 111.9 695.0 20004 2077.5 1040.5 219.4 112.7 704.9 20011 2087.4 1051.4 205.0 112.2 718.8 20012 2093.2 1059.0 200.7 111.3 722.2 20013 2110.2 1062.7 205.2 112.7 729.6 20014 2125.0 1067.5 206.1 114.0 737.4 20021 2156.5 1088.1 207.5 115.2 745.7 20022 2182.4 1101.7 209.7 116.5 754.5 20023 2207.9 1115.4 211.5 117.8 763.3 20024 2234.4 1129.3 213.8 119.1 772.2 20031 2260.0 1142.0 216.4 120.4 781.2 20032 2287.4 1156.3 219.2 121.7 790.2 20033 2315.5 1170.8 222.3 123.0 799.4 20034 2344.1 1185.5 225.6 124.3 808.7 20041 2373.0 1200.1 229.2 125.7 818.1 20042 2403.0 1215.4 232.9 127.0 827.6 20043 2433.6 1231.0 236.9 128.4 837.3 20044 2464.9 1246.9 241.0 129.8 847.2 20051 2496.1 1262.3 245.3 131.2 857.2 20052 2528.9 1278.9 249.7 132.7 867.5 20053 2562.4 1296.0 254.3 134.2 877.9 20054 2596.6 1313.4 259.0 135.7 888.5
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19971 1659.2 451.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1688.4 444.2 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1733.1 462.3 731.6 8.5 225.5 265.3 39.9 85.1 19992 1733.0 457.9 734.0 10.1 223.8 264.6 42.6 116.5 19993 1755.0 470.6 735.1 8.9 233.4 262.1 44.9 132.0 19994 1793.3 487.6 737.3 19.1 239.3 263.7 46.3 143.2 20001 1790.2 483.4 750.0 8.7 237.2 264.2 46.7 212.8 20002 1833.5 503.8 765.2 9.9 244.2 264.4 46.0 209.0 20003 1834.4 493.6 768.7 11.8 250.9 262.9 46.5 229.9 20004 1855.1 494.1 777.4 25.5 250.1 259.9 48.1 222.4 20011 1882.0 507.5 805.8 5.8 264.0 253.5 45.4 205.4 20012 1899.7 511.4 816.0 6.0 277.6 242.5 46.2 193.5 20013 1922.6 517.7 831.9 6.0 283.0 237.8 46.2 187.6 20014 1946.4 524.0 848.0 6.0 288.5 233.7 46.2 178.5 20021 1970.4 530.4 864.5 6.0 294.1 229.2 46.2 186.1 20022 1994.8 536.9 881.3 6.0 299.8 224.6 46.2 187.6 20023 2019.7 543.5 898.4 6.0 305.6 219.9 46.2 188.2 20024 2045.1 550.2 915.9 6.0 311.6 215.3 46.2 189.3 20031 2071.0 556.9 933.6 6.0 317.6 210.6 46.2 189.0 20032 2097.4 563.7 951.8 6.0 323.8 205.9 46.2 190.0 20033 2124.3 570.6 970.3 6.0 330.1 201.1 46.2 191.1 20034 2151.7 577.6 989.1 6.0 336.5 196.3 46.2 192.4 20041 2179.7 584.7 1008.3 6.0 343.0 191.4 46.2 193.4 20042 2208.1 591.8 1027.9 6.0 349.7 186.5 46.2 194.8 20043 2237.2 599.0 1047.9 6.0 356.5 181.6 46.2 196.4 20044 2266.8 606.3 1068.3 6.0 363.4 176.6 46.2 198.1 20051 2297.0 613.7 1089.0 6.0 370.5 171.6 46.2 199.1 20052 2327.8 621.3 1110.2 6.0 377.7 166.5 46.2 201.1 20053 2359.2 628.9 1131.7 6.0 385.0 161.4 46.2 203.2 20054 2391.3 636.6 1153.7 6.0 392.5 156.3 46.2 205.3
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1118.5 249.1 34.0 599.8 10.1 225.5 19992 1126.5 250.9 34.1 607.6 10.1 223.8 19993 1151.4 257.1 34.4 616.4 10.1 233.4 19994 1178.8 266.6 36.5 626.3 10.1 239.3 20001 1194.5 268.7 37.7 640.8 10.1 237.2 20002 1215.4 276.2 38.2 646.8 10.0 244.2 20003 1234.3 280.4 37.3 655.7 10.0 250.9 20004 1246.5 289.3 34.1 662.9 10.1 250.1 20011 1273.4 293.8 31.8 673.5 10.3 264.0 20012 1290.9 291.4 31.1 680.2 10.6 277.6 20013 1308.4 294.5 31.8 688.5 10.6 283.0 20014 1325.3 297.8 32.0 696.5 10.6 288.5 20021 1342.3 301.2 32.2 704.2 10.6 294.1 20022 1359.9 304.9 32.5 712.0 10.6 299.8 20023 1377.5 308.6 32.8 719.9 10.6 305.6 20024 1395.5 312.4 33.2 727.7 10.6 311.6 20031 1413.7 316.2 33.6 735.6 10.6 317.6 20032 1432.1 320.1 34.0 743.6 10.6 323.8 20033 1450.8 324.0 34.5 751.6 10.6 330.1 20034 1469.8 328.0 35.0 759.7 10.6 336.5 20041 1489.2 332.1 35.5 767.9 10.6 343.0 20042 1508.9 336.2 36.1 776.3 10.6 349.7 20043 1529.0 340.4 36.7 784.7 10.6 356.5 20044 1549.4 344.7 37.4 793.3 10.6 363.4 20051 1570.3 349.1 38.1 802.1 10.6 370.5 20052 1591.6 353.6 38.7 810.9 10.6 377.7 20053 1613.3 358.2 39.4 820.0 10.6 385.0 20054 1635.4 362.9 40.2 829.2 10.6 392.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 38.3 19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 58.4 19991 1069.5 832.9 247.0 0.0 0.4 -10.0 49.0 19992 1090.3 849.2 251.6 0.0 0.3 -10.2 36.2 19993 1113.0 867.3 256.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.2 38.4 19994 1133.8 883.9 260.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.0 45.0 20001 1161.3 907.2 263.9 -0.3 0.3 -9.2 33.2 20002 1180.7 922.3 268.3 -0.4 0.4 -9.1 34.7 20003 1199.5 936.6 272.7 -0.2 0.4 -9.2 34.8 20004 1217.8 950.0 277.8 -0.2 0.4 -9.4 28.7 20011 1251.1 966.7 282.9 -0.5 0.4 2.4 22.3 20012 1271.2 980.4 287.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 19.7 20013 1276.6 980.4 292.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 31.8 20014 1294.6 993.0 298.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 30.8 20021 1312.5 1005.7 303.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 29.8 20022 1330.6 1018.7 308.6 -0.9 0.4 4.6 29.3 20023 1349.0 1031.8 313.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 28.5 20024 1367.8 1045.1 319.4 -0.9 0.4 4.6 27.7 20031 1386.9 1058.6 325.1 -0.9 0.4 4.6 26.7 20032 1406.4 1072.2 330.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 25.7 20033 1426.2 1086.0 336.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 24.6 20034 1446.3 1100.0 343.0 -0.9 0.4 4.6 23.5 20041 1466.7 1114.1 349.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 22.5 20042 1487.4 1128.5 355.7 -0.9 0.4 4.6 21.5 20043 1508.4 1143.0 362.2 -0.9 0.4 4.6 20.5 20044 1529.8 1157.7 368.8 -0.9 0.4 4.6 19.6 20051 1551.4 1172.6 375.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 18.8 20052 1573.4 1187.8 382.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 18.1 20053 1595.8 1203.1 389.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 17.5 20054 1618.4 1218.8 396.4 -0.9 0.4 4.6 17.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19971 46.7 -12.6 -4.6 117.5 -84.5 -62.5 19972 62.3 -31.9 -0.3 100.1 -67.5 -62.7 19973 22.5 -56.5 2.1 120.2 -32.6 -55.8 19974 40.0 -121.6 1.5 154.6 -22.9 -51.5 19981 75.9 -190.7 -13.8 155.6 22.3 -49.3 19982 74.7 -219.8 -15.6 192.5 25.4 -57.2 19983 61.3 -270.2 -17.8 222.8 62.3 -58.5 19984 21.7 -245.2 -20.9 227.9 54.3 -37.8 19991 -26.1 -239.9 -10.8 247.8 84.6 -55.5 19992 -82.2 -228.9 -23.5 292.0 107.9 -65.3 19993 -117.9 -264.3 -17.4 334.7 127.1 -62.2 19994 -165.1 -248.2 -9.7 352.2 132.7 -61.9 20001 -229.6 -296.3 -8.2 399.8 214.4 -80.1 20002 -191.5 -355.7 -10.1 417.5 207.3 -67.5 20003 -219.1 -393.1 -7.2 451.4 235.6 -67.6 20004 -196.2 -397.5 -6.2 453.3 219.9 -73.3 20011 -205.3 -331.1 -4.5 420.2 208.3 -87.6 20012 -198.6 -297.2 -1.2 405.4 195.8 -104.3 20013 -210.8 -317.6 0.2 434.7 188.7 -95.3 20014 -216.3 -310.6 0.5 447.3 178.4 -99.3 20021 -227.7 -311.3 0.8 456.8 184.8 -103.4 20022 -229.4 -313.5 1.0 464.0 185.0 -107.1 20023 -231.9 -312.3 1.2 469.7 184.4 -111.0 20024 -234.1 -310.7 1.4 474.4 184.1 -115.1 20031 -234.8 -308.3 1.6 478.3 182.5 -119.3 20032 -237.1 -305.0 1.7 481.8 182.2 -123.6 20033 -239.8 -301.1 1.8 485.1 182.0 -128.1 20034 -242.9 -296.7 1.9 488.4 181.9 -132.5 20041 -246.1 -292.0 2.0 491.6 181.5 -137.0 20042 -249.9 -287.2 2.0 495.1 181.6 -141.5 20043 -254.2 -282.3 2.0 498.7 181.8 -146.0 20044 -258.8 -277.4 2.0 502.6 182.0 -150.4 20051 -263.2 -272.4 2.0 506.8 181.6 -154.8 20052 -268.7 -267.5 1.9 511.3 182.1 -159.1 20053 -274.6 -262.7 1.9 516.2 182.7 -163.4 20054 -280.8 -258.0 1.8 521.5 183.4 -167.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19971 8124.1 5429.9 635.1 1626.8 3168.0 19972 8279.9 5470.8 624.4 1627.3 3219.1 19973 8390.9 5575.9 652.4 1653.1 3270.4 19974 8478.6 5640.6 658.3 1659.0 3323.3 19981 8627.9 5719.9 666.8 1675.8 3377.3 19982 8697.3 5820.0 689.3 1697.2 3433.5 19983 8816.5 5895.1 691.7 1716.7 3486.7 19984 8984.6 5989.1 725.1 1744.4 3519.6 19991 9093.2 6080.8 731.6 1776.4 3572.8 19992 9161.3 6197.1 754.9 1814.7 3627.5 19993 9297.5 6298.4 767.9 1841.4 3689.1 19994 9522.4 6424.7 789.4 1892.9 3742.4 20001 9668.6 6581.9 820.7 1942.5 3818.7 20002 9857.7 6674.9 813.8 1978.3 3882.8 20003 9937.4 6785.5 825.4 2012.4 3947.7 20004 10027.8 6871.3 818.7 2025.1 4027.5 20011 10141.6 6977.6 838.1 2047.1 4092.4 20012 10217.6 7044.9 842.7 2063.1 4139.1 20013 10335.5 7130.8 847.6 2080.5 4202.7 20014 10441.3 7213.7 852.3 2098.5 4262.9 20021 10553.3 7293.6 856.2 2116.7 4320.7 20022 10672.1 7374.5 860.7 2135.9 4377.8 20023 10789.6 7455.8 865.8 2156.0 4434.0 20024 10910.5 7537.1 871.3 2176.7 4489.1 20031 11033.4 7619.0 877.3 2197.9 4543.8 20032 11157.7 7701.4 883.9 2219.5 4598.1 20033 11284.1 7784.6 890.9 2241.5 4652.2 20034 11412.7 7868.6 898.6 2263.9 4706.1 20041 11543.4 7953.7 906.7 2286.8 4760.2 20042 11676.5 8039.9 915.5 2310.0 4814.4 20043 11811.9 8127.4 924.7 2333.7 4869.0 20044 11949.7 8216.3 934.5 2357.8 4924.1 20051 12090.1 8306.9 944.8 2382.3 4979.8 20052 12232.9 8399.1 955.7 2407.3 5036.1 20053 12378.2 8492.9 967.0 2432.8 5093.1 20054 12525.8 8588.3 978.8 2458.7 5150.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19971 1324.3 1275.5 955.5 320.0 48.8 19972 1397.7 1310.0 984.3 325.7 87.7 19973 1405.7 1355.8 1026.0 329.8 49.9 19974 1434.4 1369.3 1031.8 337.5 65.1 19981 1528.7 1422.0 1074.8 347.2 106.7 19982 1498.4 1457.5 1099.9 357.6 40.9 19983 1538.6 1469.1 1098.6 370.5 69.5 19984 1589.3 1513.9 1131.7 382.2 75.4 19991 1621.3 1541.1 1145.3 395.8 80.2 19992 1595.7 1565.7 1163.1 402.6 30.0 19993 1631.8 1592.7 1187.2 405.5 39.1 19994 1698.1 1613.2 1202.9 410.3 84.9 20001 1708.9 1678.0 1250.9 427.1 30.9 20002 1792.4 1717.0 1288.3 428.7 75.4 20003 1788.4 1735.9 1314.9 421.0 52.5 20004 1780.3 1741.6 1318.2 423.4 38.7 20011 1722.7 1748.2 1311.2 437.0 -25.5 20012 1684.4 1710.3 1263.1 447.2 -25.9 20013 1734.8 1725.9 1275.0 450.9 8.9 20014 1746.8 1741.7 1288.0 453.8 5.1 20021 1764.3 1753.8 1301.2 452.7 10.5 20022 1785.3 1767.5 1315.9 451.6 17.8 20023 1802.7 1782.9 1331.5 451.5 19.8 20024 1822.0 1799.4 1347.2 452.2 22.6 20031 1841.9 1817.0 1363.7 453.4 24.8 20032 1861.7 1835.5 1380.4 455.1 26.2 20033 1882.5 1855.0 1397.5 457.5 27.5 20034 1904.2 1875.6 1415.0 460.6 28.7 20041 1926.8 1897.1 1432.8 464.2 29.7 20042 1950.3 1919.5 1451.1 468.4 30.8 20043 1974.8 1942.9 1469.9 473.0 31.8 20044 2000.0 1967.2 1489.1 478.0 32.9 20051 2026.2 1992.4 1508.8 483.5 33.9 20052 2053.2 2018.3 1529.0 489.3 34.9 20053 2081.0 2045.1 1549.7 495.3 35.9 20054 2109.4 2072.5 1570.9 501.6 36.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19971 -89.3 927.8 1017.1 1459.2 529.2 930.0 19972 -74.9 966.8 1041.7 1486.3 543.4 942.9 19973 -88.6 988.7 1077.3 1497.9 541.3 956.6 19974 -104.6 982.4 1087.0 1508.2 538.9 969.3 19981 -122.6 974.1 1096.7 1501.9 526.1 975.8 19982 -154.9 959.2 1114.1 1533.8 542.9 990.9 19983 -165.3 946.7 1112.0 1548.1 539.5 1008.6 19984 -164.1 979.7 1143.8 1570.3 548.4 1021.9 19991 -199.8 960.2 1160.0 1590.9 549.8 1041.1 19992 -241.1 971.3 1212.4 1609.6 553.1 1056.5 19993 -273.9 996.6 1270.5 1641.2 565.6 1075.6 19994 -288.7 1031.0 1319.7 1688.3 587.6 1100.7 20001 -333.9 1059.7 1393.6 1711.7 578.5 1133.2 20002 -350.7 1099.7 1450.4 1741.1 601.0 1140.1 20003 -380.7 1131.1 1511.8 1744.2 587.0 1157.2 20004 -390.6 1121.0 1511.6 1766.8 594.2 1172.6 20011 -363.8 1117.4 1481.2 1805.1 605.3 1199.8 20012 -349.1 1087.2 1436.3 1837.4 609.8 1227.6 20013 -378.1 1094.0 1472.1 1847.9 617.3 1230.6 20014 -390.3 1114.3 1504.6 1871.1 624.9 1246.3 20021 -399.4 1134.8 1534.2 1894.7 632.5 1262.1 20022 -406.2 1155.7 1561.9 1918.5 640.3 1278.2 20023 -411.5 1176.9 1588.4 1942.7 648.1 1294.5 20024 -415.8 1198.4 1614.2 1967.1 656.1 1311.1 20031 -419.3 1220.3 1639.6 1991.9 664.1 1327.8 20032 -422.4 1242.5 1665.0 2017.0 672.2 1344.7 20033 -425.3 1265.1 1690.4 2042.3 680.5 1361.9 20034 -428.1 1288.0 1716.1 2068.0 688.8 1379.2 20041 -431.0 1311.3 1742.3 2094.0 697.2 1396.8 20042 -434.0 1334.9 1769.0 2120.3 705.7 1414.6 20043 -437.2 1359.0 1796.2 2147.0 714.3 1432.7 20044 -440.7 1383.4 1824.1 2174.0 723.1 1450.9 20051 -444.4 1408.3 1852.8 2201.4 731.9 1469.5 20052 -448.5 1433.6 1882.2 2229.1 740.9 1488.2 20053 -453.0 1459.4 1912.4 2257.3 749.9 1507.3 20054 -457.7 1485.7 1943.4 2285.8 759.2 1526.6
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19971 8016.4 5350.8 641.5 1605.6 3103.7 19972 8131.9 5375.3 636.5 1608.2 3130.6 19973 8216.6 5462.8 670.5 1631.7 3160.6 19974 8272.9 5508.0 680.9 1634.1 3193.0 19981 8396.3 5577.2 692.5 1656.3 3228.4 19982 8442.9 5662.5 719.7 1680.5 3262.3 19983 8528.5 5715.9 727.1 1693.6 3295.2 19984 8667.9 5790.2 767.3 1715.3 3307.6 19991 8733.5 5860.1 780.5 1738.8 3340.8 19992 8771.2 5944.5 809.5 1757.2 3377.8 19993 8871.5 6009.5 827.2 1768.6 3413.7 19994 9049.9 6095.8 854.2 1801.1 3440.5 20001 9102.5 6188.1 892.1 1823.8 3472.2 20002 9229.4 6241.0 886.5 1844.9 3509.6 20003 9260.1 6308.4 904.1 1864.1 3540.2 20004 9303.9 6355.0 899.4 1866.8 3588.8 20011 9334.5 6405.5 922.4 1878.0 3605.1 20012 9351.6 6441.2 935.9 1880.1 3625.2 20013 9397.5 6479.9 935.8 1884.8 3659.3 20014 9429.5 6515.7 935.5 1890.0 3690.1 20021 9468.4 6548.5 934.4 1895.5 3718.6 20022 9513.5 6581.7 933.9 1901.7 3746.1 20023 9556.5 6614.9 934.0 1908.6 3772.3 20024 9602.0 6647.9 934.6 1915.9 3797.5 20031 9649.0 6681.2 935.7 1923.5 3821.9 20032 9696.6 6714.7 937.4 1931.5 3845.8 20033 9745.7 6748.7 939.6 1939.8 3869.3 20034 9796.1 6783.1 942.4 1948.3 3892.4 20041 9847.7 6818.2 945.7 1957.1 3915.4 20042 9900.8 6854.0 949.6 1966.1 3938.3 20043 9955.0 6890.5 953.9 1975.4 3961.1 20044 10010.4 6927.7 958.7 1984.9 3984.1 20051 10067.1 6965.9 964.1 1994.7 4007.2 20052 10124.8 7004.9 969.8 2004.6 4030.4 20053 10183.5 7044.7 976.0 2014.8 4053.9 20054 10243.2 7085.3 982.5 2025.2 4077.7
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19971 1324.8 1275.5 960.8 314.7 49.3 19972 1399.7 1311.4 992.7 318.7 88.3 19973 1408.6 1357.3 1037.0 320.3 51.3 19974 1438.0 1371.9 1047.0 324.9 66.1 19981 1545.6 1432.5 1099.5 333.0 113.1 19982 1514.8 1472.8 1132.3 340.5 42.0 19983 1557.9 1486.1 1136.6 349.5 71.8 19984 1612.8 1532.8 1175.4 357.4 80.0 19991 1642.3 1558.9 1192.6 366.3 83.4 19992 1616.5 1583.8 1214.9 368.9 32.7 19993 1652.4 1612.8 1244.6 368.2 39.6 19994 1724.8 1632.1 1262.4 369.7 92.7 20001 1715.6 1686.7 1309.4 377.3 28.9 20002 1803.1 1724.2 1347.7 376.5 78.9 20003 1789.1 1737.4 1371.1 366.3 51.7 20004 1782.6 1739.8 1374.5 365.3 42.8 20011 1719.7 1746.8 1373.9 372.9 -27.1 20012 1677.2 1704.1 1324.5 379.6 -26.9 20013 1718.8 1709.6 1329.2 380.5 9.2 20014 1720.7 1715.5 1334.8 380.7 5.2 20021 1729.0 1718.3 1340.7 377.6 10.7 20022 1740.7 1722.6 1348.1 374.5 18.1 20023 1748.4 1728.5 1356.2 372.3 19.9 20024 1757.8 1735.2 1364.5 370.7 22.7 20031 1767.6 1742.9 1373.3 369.6 24.8 20032 1777.2 1751.2 1382.3 368.9 25.9 20033 1787.5 1760.4 1391.6 368.8 27.1 20034 1798.5 1770.4 1401.2 369.2 28.1 20041 1810.1 1781.1 1411.0 370.1 29.0 20042 1822.4 1792.6 1421.2 371.3 29.9 20043 1835.4 1804.7 1431.7 372.9 30.7 20044 1848.9 1817.4 1442.5 374.9 31.5 20051 1863.1 1830.7 1453.7 377.1 32.3 20052 1877.7 1844.6 1465.1 379.5 33.1 20053 1892.9 1859.0 1476.9 382.1 33.9 20054 1908.4 1873.7 1488.9 384.8 34.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19971 -94.0 940.3 1034.3 1434.5 19972 -100.6 979.2 1079.8 1457.0 19973 -119.6 1004.2 1123.8 1464.8 19974 -139.1 1002.1 1141.2 1465.2 19981 -180.8 1003.4 1184.2 1455.8 19982 -223.1 993.1 1216.2 1482.5 19983 -241.3 987.6 1228.9 1489.6 19984 -239.2 1025.6 1264.8 1504.5 19991 -283.0 1007.6 1290.6 1511.9 19992 -313.4 1018.0 1331.4 1516.3 19993 -333.3 1041.8 1375.1 1532.8 19994 -337.7 1072.1 1409.8 1564.6 20001 -371.1 1095.5 1466.6 1559.8 20002 -392.8 1130.6 1523.4 1577.0 20003 -411.3 1159.3 1570.6 1569.4 20004 -421.0 1147.5 1568.5 1582.2 20011 -404.5 1144.1 1548.6 1602.7 20012 -407.4 1114.6 1522.0 1624.1 20013 -437.6 1114.6 1552.2 1619.9 20014 -450.4 1128.3 1578.6 1626.9 20021 -459.6 1142.1 1601.7 1634.0 20022 -466.5 1156.1 1622.6 1641.1 20023 -471.7 1170.3 1642.0 1648.3 20024 -475.7 1184.7 1660.4 1655.5 20031 -479.0 1199.2 1678.3 1662.7 20032 -481.8 1213.9 1695.8 1670.0 20033 -484.4 1228.8 1713.2 1677.4 20034 -486.8 1243.9 1730.7 1684.7 20041 -489.2 1259.2 1748.4 1692.1 20042 -491.7 1274.6 1766.4 1699.6 20043 -494.4 1290.3 1784.7 1707.1 20044 -497.4 1306.1 1803.5 1714.7 20051 -500.6 1322.2 1822.8 1722.2 20052 -504.2 1338.4 1842.6 1729.9 20053 -508.1 1354.8 1862.9 1737.6 20054 -512.3 1371.4 1883.8 1745.3
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19971 1572.7 724.9 194.3 88.5 565.0 19972 1607.7 741.5 198.4 95.6 572.2 19973 1645.5 759.6 209.8 95.9 580.2 19974 1676.0 781.3 209.5 94.7 590.5 19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1818.2 871.3 212.2 97.2 637.5 19992 1849.5 891.8 213.8 97.9 646.0 19993 1887.0 914.3 216.3 101.0 655.4 19994 1936.5 935.9 230.8 106.1 663.7 20001 2003.0 976.6 239.3 108.6 678.5 20002 2042.5 1001.1 242.3 111.5 687.6 20003 2064.3 1019.8 237.6 111.9 695.0 20004 2077.5 1040.5 219.4 112.7 704.9 20011 2087.4 1051.4 205.0 112.2 718.8 20012 2093.2 1059.0 200.7 111.3 722.2 20013 2110.2 1062.7 205.2 112.7 729.6 20014 2125.0 1067.5 206.1 114.0 737.4 20021 2156.5 1088.1 207.5 115.2 745.7 20022 2182.4 1101.7 209.7 116.5 754.5 20023 2207.9 1115.4 211.5 117.8 763.3 20024 2234.4 1129.3 213.8 119.1 772.2 20031 2260.0 1142.0 216.4 120.4 781.2 20032 2287.4 1156.3 219.2 121.7 790.2 20033 2315.5 1170.8 222.3 123.0 799.4 20034 2344.1 1185.5 225.6 124.3 808.7 20041 2373.0 1200.1 229.2 125.7 818.1 20042 2403.0 1215.4 232.9 127.0 827.6 20043 2433.6 1231.0 236.9 128.4 837.3 20044 2464.9 1246.9 241.0 129.8 847.2 20051 2496.1 1262.3 245.3 131.2 857.2 20052 2528.9 1278.9 249.7 132.7 867.5 20053 2562.4 1296.0 254.3 134.2 877.9 20054 2596.6 1313.4 259.0 135.7 888.5
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19971 1659.2 451.3 709.3 702.1 7.2 191.1 273.8 33.7 -86.5 19972 1675.9 461.5 714.1 706.3 7.8 193.8 274.8 31.7 -68.2 19973 1679.3 457.5 717.2 709.2 8.0 196.7 277.5 30.4 -33.8 19974 1701.0 457.2 729.4 709.8 19.6 205.6 278.5 30.3 -25.0 19981 1688.4 444.2 727.9 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 726.3 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 729.7 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 738.5 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1733.1 462.3 740.1 731.6 8.5 225.5 265.3 39.9 85.1 19992 1733.0 457.9 744.1 734.0 10.1 223.8 264.6 42.6 116.5 19993 1755.0 470.6 744.0 735.1 8.9 233.4 262.1 44.9 132.0 19994 1793.3 487.6 756.4 737.3 19.1 239.3 263.7 46.3 143.2 20001 1790.2 483.4 758.7 750.0 8.7 237.2 264.2 46.7 212.8 20002 1833.5 503.8 775.1 765.2 9.9 244.2 264.4 46.0 209.0 20003 1834.4 493.6 780.5 768.7 11.8 250.9 262.9 46.5 229.9 20004 1855.1 494.1 802.9 777.4 25.5 250.1 259.9 48.1 222.4 20011 1882.0 507.5 811.6 805.8 5.8 264.0 253.5 45.4 205.4 20012 1899.7 511.4 822.0 816.0 6.0 277.6 242.5 46.2 193.5 20013 1922.6 517.7 837.9 831.9 6.0 283.0 237.8 46.2 187.6 20014 1946.4 524.0 854.0 848.0 6.0 288.5 233.7 46.2 178.5 20021 1970.4 530.4 870.5 864.5 6.0 294.1 229.2 46.2 186.1 20022 1994.8 536.9 887.3 881.3 6.0 299.8 224.6 46.2 187.6 20023 2019.7 543.5 904.4 898.4 6.0 305.6 219.9 46.2 188.2 20024 2045.1 550.2 921.9 915.9 6.0 311.6 215.3 46.2 189.3 20031 2071.0 556.9 939.6 933.6 6.0 317.6 210.6 46.2 189.0 20032 2097.4 563.7 957.8 951.8 6.0 323.8 205.9 46.2 190.0 20033 2124.3 570.6 976.3 970.3 6.0 330.1 201.1 46.2 191.1 20034 2151.7 577.6 995.1 989.1 6.0 336.5 196.3 46.2 192.4 20041 2179.7 584.7 1014.3 1008.3 6.0 343.0 191.4 46.2 193.4 20042 2208.1 591.8 1033.9 1027.9 6.0 349.7 186.5 46.2 194.8 20043 2237.2 599.0 1053.9 1047.9 6.0 356.5 181.6 46.2 196.4 20044 2266.8 606.3 1074.3 1068.3 6.0 363.4 176.6 46.2 198.1 20051 2297.0 613.7 1095.0 1089.0 6.0 370.5 171.6 46.2 199.1 20052 2327.8 621.3 1116.2 1110.2 6.0 377.7 166.5 46.2 201.1 20053 2359.2 628.9 1137.7 1131.7 6.0 385.0 161.4 46.2 203.2 20054 2391.3 636.6 1159.7 1153.7 6.0 392.5 156.3 46.2 205.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19971 989.0 210.2 32.8 543.5 11.4 191.1 19972 999.8 213.4 33.4 548.2 11.0 193.8 19973 1020.1 219.2 35.4 558.2 10.6 196.7 19974 1036.5 225.0 35.2 560.3 10.4 205.6 19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1118.5 249.1 34.0 599.8 10.1 225.5 19992 1126.5 250.9 34.1 607.6 10.1 223.8 19993 1151.4 257.1 34.4 616.4 10.1 233.4 19994 1178.8 266.6 36.5 626.3 10.1 239.3 20001 1194.5 268.7 37.7 640.8 10.1 237.2 20002 1215.4 276.2 38.2 646.8 10.0 244.2 20003 1234.3 280.4 37.3 655.7 10.0 250.9 20004 1246.5 289.3 34.1 662.9 10.1 250.1 20011 1273.4 293.8 31.8 673.5 10.3 264.0 20012 1290.9 291.4 31.1 680.2 10.6 277.6 20013 1308.4 294.5 31.8 688.5 10.6 283.0 20014 1325.3 297.8 32.0 696.5 10.6 288.5 20021 1342.3 301.2 32.2 704.2 10.6 294.1 20022 1359.9 304.9 32.5 712.0 10.6 299.8 20023 1377.5 308.6 32.8 719.9 10.6 305.6 20024 1395.5 312.4 33.2 727.7 10.6 311.6 20031 1413.7 316.2 33.6 735.6 10.6 317.6 20032 1432.1 320.1 34.0 743.6 10.6 323.8 20033 1450.8 324.0 34.5 751.6 10.6 330.1 20034 1469.8 328.0 35.0 759.7 10.6 336.5 20041 1489.2 332.1 35.5 767.9 10.6 343.0 20042 1508.9 336.2 36.1 776.3 10.6 349.7 20043 1529.0 340.4 36.7 784.7 10.6 356.5 20044 1549.4 344.7 37.4 793.3 10.6 363.4 20051 1570.3 349.1 38.1 802.1 10.6 370.5 20052 1591.6 353.6 38.7 810.9 10.6 377.7 20053 1613.3 358.2 39.4 820.0 10.6 385.0 20054 1635.4 362.9 40.2 829.2 10.6 392.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19971 965.5 751.9 226.6 -0.2 0.3 -12.5 0.0 23.5 19972 973.2 760.0 227.0 -1.0 0.3 -12.5 0.0 26.6 19973 984.7 770.7 227.9 -1.1 0.3 -12.5 0.0 35.4 19974 998.2 783.2 228.7 -1.2 0.4 -12.1 0.0 38.3 19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 0.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 0.0 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 0.0 58.4 19991 1069.5 832.9 247.0 0.0 0.4 -10.0 0.0 49.0 19992 1090.3 849.2 251.6 0.0 0.3 -10.2 0.0 36.2 19993 1113.0 867.3 256.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.2 0.0 38.4 19994 1133.8 883.9 260.6 -0.3 0.4 -10.0 0.0 45.0 20001 1161.3 907.2 263.9 -0.3 0.3 -9.2 0.0 33.2 20002 1180.7 922.3 268.3 -0.4 0.4 -9.1 0.0 34.7 20003 1199.5 936.6 272.7 -0.2 0.4 -9.2 0.0 34.8 20004 1217.8 950.0 277.8 -0.2 0.4 -9.4 0.0 28.7 20011 1251.1 966.7 282.9 -0.5 0.4 2.4 0.0 22.3 20012 1271.2 980.4 287.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 19.7 20013 1276.6 980.4 292.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 31.8 20014 1294.6 993.0 298.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 30.8 20021 1312.5 1005.7 303.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 29.8 20022 1330.6 1018.7 308.6 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 29.3 20023 1349.0 1031.8 313.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 28.5 20024 1367.8 1045.1 319.4 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 27.7 20031 1386.9 1058.6 325.1 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 26.7 20032 1406.4 1072.2 330.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 25.7 20033 1426.2 1086.0 336.9 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 24.6 20034 1446.3 1100.0 343.0 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 23.5 20041 1466.7 1114.1 349.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 22.5 20042 1487.4 1128.5 355.7 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 21.5 20043 1508.4 1143.0 362.2 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 20.5 20044 1529.8 1157.7 368.8 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 19.6 20051 1551.4 1172.6 375.5 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 18.8 20052 1573.4 1187.8 382.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 18.1 20053 1595.8 1203.1 389.3 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 17.5 20054 1618.4 1218.8 396.4 -0.9 0.4 4.6 0.0 17.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19971 101.3 101.5 99.0 101.3 102.1 19972 101.8 101.8 98.1 101.2 102.8 19973 102.1 102.1 97.3 101.3 103.5 19974 102.5 102.4 96.7 101.5 104.1 19981 102.8 102.6 96.3 101.2 104.6 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.0 105.2 19983 103.4 103.1 95.1 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.4 94.5 101.7 106.4 19991 104.1 103.8 93.7 102.2 106.9 19992 104.4 104.2 93.3 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.1 108.1 19994 105.2 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.2 106.4 92.0 106.5 110.0 20002 106.8 107.0 91.8 107.2 110.6 20003 107.3 107.6 91.3 108.0 111.5 20004 107.8 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.2 20011 108.6 108.9 90.9 109.0 113.5 20012 109.3 109.4 90.0 109.7 114.2 20013 110.0 110.0 90.6 110.4 114.9 20014 110.7 110.7 91.1 111.0 115.5 20021 111.5 111.4 91.6 111.7 116.2 20022 112.2 112.0 92.2 112.3 116.9 20023 112.9 112.7 92.7 113.0 117.5 20024 113.6 113.4 93.2 113.6 118.2 20031 114.3 114.0 93.8 114.3 118.9 20032 115.1 114.7 94.3 114.9 119.6 20033 115.8 115.3 94.8 115.6 120.2 20034 116.5 116.0 95.3 116.2 120.9 20041 117.2 116.7 95.9 116.8 121.6 20042 117.9 117.3 96.4 117.5 122.2 20043 118.7 118.0 96.9 118.1 122.9 20044 119.4 118.6 97.5 118.8 123.6 20051 120.1 119.3 98.0 119.4 124.3 20052 120.8 119.9 98.5 120.1 125.0 20053 121.6 120.6 99.1 120.7 125.6 20054 122.3 121.2 99.6 121.4 126.3
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19971 100.0 99.4 101.7 98.7 98.3 101.7 19972 99.9 99.2 102.2 98.7 96.5 102.0 19973 99.9 98.9 103.0 98.5 95.9 102.3 19974 99.8 98.5 103.9 98.0 95.3 102.9 19981 99.3 97.8 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.0 97.1 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.5 19983 98.9 96.7 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.8 96.3 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.4 19991 98.9 96.0 108.1 95.3 89.9 105.2 19992 98.9 95.7 109.1 95.4 91.1 106.2 19993 98.8 95.4 110.1 95.7 92.4 107.1 19994 98.8 95.3 111.0 96.2 93.6 107.9 20001 99.5 95.5 113.2 96.7 95.0 109.7 20002 99.6 95.6 113.9 97.3 95.2 110.4 20003 99.9 95.9 114.9 97.6 96.3 111.1 20004 100.1 95.9 115.9 97.7 96.4 111.7 20011 100.1 95.4 117.2 97.7 95.6 112.6 20012 100.4 95.4 117.8 97.5 94.4 113.1 20013 101.0 95.9 118.5 98.2 94.8 114.1 20014 101.5 96.5 119.2 98.8 95.3 115.0 20021 102.1 97.0 119.9 99.4 95.8 116.0 20022 102.6 97.6 120.6 100.0 96.3 116.9 20023 103.2 98.2 121.3 100.6 96.7 117.9 20024 103.7 98.7 122.0 101.2 97.2 118.8 20031 104.3 99.3 122.7 101.8 97.7 119.8 20032 104.8 99.9 123.4 102.4 98.2 120.8 20033 105.4 100.4 124.1 102.9 98.7 121.8 20034 105.9 101.0 124.8 103.5 99.2 122.8 20041 106.5 101.5 125.4 104.1 99.7 123.7 20042 107.1 102.1 126.1 104.7 100.1 124.8 20043 107.7 102.7 126.8 105.3 100.6 125.8 20044 108.2 103.2 127.5 105.9 101.1 126.8 20051 108.8 103.8 128.2 106.5 101.6 127.8 20052 109.4 104.4 128.9 107.1 102.1 128.9 20053 110.0 104.9 129.6 107.7 102.7 129.9 20054 110.6 105.5 130.3 108.3 103.2 131.0
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment