US Forecast: October 31, 2002
Forecast Period

2002:4--2006:4 (17 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 31, 2002.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2002:2. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the April 27, 2001, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. The changes that have been made to the model since the April 27, 2001, version are discussed in Current Versions and References and Previous Versions and References.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2002:3.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2002:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.2       
COG           3.0 (beg. 2003:1)    2.6       
JG            1.0                 -1.2       
TRGS          8.0                  7.2       
TRSH          7.0                  5.9       
COS           3.0                  5.6       
JS            1.0                  1.8       
EX            2.0/5.0              5.5
PIM           1.5                 -0.5

2.0/5.0 means 2.0 for 2002:4 and 5.0 thereafter.

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

The tax cut package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in May 2001 has been incorporated into the forecast. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimates of the tax reductions by fiscal year, and these estimates were used as a guide in choosing values for D1G, the personal income tax parameter in the model. D1G was adjusted in the manner discussed in Section 5.2 of The US Model Workbook, experiment 5.5. You can examine the values for D1G to see what was done. The tax reduction in each quarter of the current fiscal year is about $90 billion at an annual rate, and this rises to a little over $100 billion by 2004.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve" in the left menu under "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2006:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2004. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions out a number of years.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rate for 2002:4 is 2.4 percent, and the predicted growth rates for the four quarters of 2003 are 2.4, 2.4, 2.7, and 3.0 percent respectively. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain roughly unchanged throughout the forecast period.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be 1.9 percent in 2002:4 and about 2.2 percent in 2003.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, 2001:3, and 2001:4 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.4 percent by the end of 2003.

Other Variables: The federal government is now running a fairly large budget deficit, and the model is predicting that the deficit will continue to be large throughout the forecast period (see the predicted values for SGP).

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (between $524.3 and $645.6 billion).

Possible Experiments to Run

The current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending (if you think that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed for the forecast, perhaps because of increased defense spending). You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate (if you think that the model has overpredicted the bill rate). On the contractionary side, if you think there will be an oil price shock (perhaps because of a U.S. invasion of Iraq), you can increase PIM. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. You may also want to use lower values for exports (EX) than the forecast uses if you think there will be a serious slowdown abroad.

Regarding the stock market, the large fall in equity prices in the second and third quarters of 2002 is incorporated into the current forecast. (The value of CG was -$1,763 billion in 2002:2 and -$1,750 billion 2002:3.) Each fall in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG of about -$100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 900, and if you think it will go to, say, 700 before the stock market correction is over, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: October 31, 2002
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19981 8396.3 6.1 3228.4 4.5 1656.3 5.5 692.5 7.0 19982 8442.9 2.2 3262.3 4.3 1680.5 6.0 719.7 16.7 19983 8528.5 4.1 3295.2 4.1 1693.6 3.2 727.1 4.2 19984 8667.9 6.7 3307.6 1.5 1715.3 5.2 767.3 24.0 19991 8733.2 3.0 3343.6 4.4 1736.1 4.9 777.6 5.5 19992 8775.5 2.0 3379.7 4.4 1756.7 4.8 804.2 14.4 19993 8886.9 5.2 3417.4 4.5 1767.7 2.5 824.1 10.3 19994 9040.1 7.1 3440.7 2.8 1799.9 7.5 844.2 10.1 20001 9097.4 2.6 3477.7 4.4 1809.7 2.2 879.5 17.8 20002 9205.7 4.8 3508.2 3.6 1831.6 4.9 871.3 -3.7 20003 9218.7 0.6 3541.7 3.9 1840.9 2.0 888.5 8.1 20004 9243.8 1.1 3570.6 3.3 1853.1 2.7 876.5 -5.3 20011 9229.9 -0.6 3576.3 0.6 1863.7 2.3 900.6 11.5 20012 9193.1 -1.6 3589.3 1.5 1862.3 -0.3 912.4 5.3 20013 9186.4 -0.3 3597.5 0.9 1868.3 1.3 922.6 4.5 20014 9248.8 2.7 3616.6 2.1 1885.0 3.6 992.0 33.7 20021 9363.2 5.0 3642.2 2.9 1921.4 8.0 975.9 -6.3 20022 9392.4 1.3 3666.2 2.7 1920.9 -0.1 980.7 2.0 20023 9465.2 3.1 3686.9 2.3 1927.2 1.3 1032.0 22.6 20024 9521.4 2.4 3722.8 4.0 1928.3 0.2 1040.6 3.4 20031 9577.1 2.4 3757.0 3.7 1931.5 0.7 1050.4 3.8 20032 9634.1 2.4 3790.1 3.6 1937.5 1.2 1060.8 4.0 20033 9698.0 2.7 3822.5 3.5 1945.6 1.7 1071.6 4.1 20034 9769.1 3.0 3854.8 3.4 1955.6 2.1 1083.4 4.5 20041 9841.4 3.0 3886.7 3.3 1966.6 2.3 1095.3 4.4 20042 9912.3 2.9 3918.2 3.3 1978.3 2.4 1107.0 4.4 20043 9981.5 2.8 3949.6 3.2 1990.4 2.5 1118.5 4.2 20044 10050.6 2.8 3981.3 3.3 2002.9 2.5 1130.6 4.4 20051 10118.7 2.7 4012.9 3.2 2015.6 2.6 1142.4 4.2 20052 10185.9 2.7 4044.6 3.2 2028.4 2.6 1154.0 4.1 20053 10252.6 2.6 4076.2 3.2 2041.2 2.5 1165.3 4.0 20054 10320.6 2.7 4108.5 3.2 2054.2 2.6 1177.4 4.2 20061 10388.8 2.7 4140.9 3.2 2067.3 2.6 1189.2 4.1 20062 10457.0 2.7 4173.4 3.2 2080.4 2.6 1201.1 4.0 20063 10525.4 2.6 4206.1 3.2 2093.6 2.6 1212.9 4.0 20064 10595.7 2.7 4239.6 3.2 2107.0 2.6 1225.5 4.2
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19981 294.5 16.7 945.7 23.9 113.1 1184.2 15.9 19982 301.1 9.3 975.7 13.3 42.0 1216.2 11.3 19983 309.1 11.0 979.4 1.5 71.8 1228.9 4.2 19984 316.1 9.3 1016.1 15.9 80.0 1264.8 12.2 19991 309.7 -7.8 1039.8 9.7 80.0 1290.7 8.4 19992 313.4 4.8 1061.7 8.7 31.2 1337.7 15.4 19993 314.1 0.9 1083.6 8.5 47.6 1383.7 14.5 19994 316.2 2.7 1091.8 3.0 92.2 1415.2 9.4 20001 320.0 4.9 1133.8 16.3 45.3 1464.6 14.7 20002 317.5 -3.0 1164.2 11.1 91.5 1528.5 18.6 20003 309.9 -9.2 1174.8 3.7 63.1 1578.6 13.8 20004 309.9 0.0 1163.9 -3.6 59.9 1572.2 -1.6 20011 321.1 15.2 1143.1 -7.0 -26.9 1540.3 -7.9 20012 320.6 -0.5 1094.8 -15.9 -58.3 1513.6 -6.8 20013 320.9 0.3 1075.7 -6.8 -61.8 1467.0 -11.8 20014 318.1 -3.5 1043.4 -11.5 -98.4 1447.2 -5.3 20021 328.9 14.3 1026.5 -6.3 -28.9 1477.1 8.5 20022 331.1 2.8 1020.1 -2.5 4.9 1552.9 22.2 20023 330.5 -0.7 1021.5 0.6 1.9 1562.4 2.5 20024 333.7 3.9 1021.6 0.0 25.9 1583.4 5.5 20031 338.5 6.0 1011.1 -4.0 29.5 1594.1 2.7 20032 343.5 6.0 1002.4 -3.4 32.5 1607.2 3.3 20033 348.1 5.4 1004.6 0.9 33.8 1624.2 4.3 20034 353.3 6.1 1014.9 4.2 35.8 1646.6 5.6 20041 357.6 5.0 1026.0 4.5 39.6 1670.4 5.9 20042 361.2 4.1 1037.6 4.6 42.4 1694.6 5.9 20043 364.1 3.3 1049.3 4.6 43.7 1718.9 5.9 20044 367.4 3.7 1061.0 4.5 43.8 1743.9 5.9 20051 369.9 2.7 1072.1 4.3 44.0 1768.6 5.8 20052 371.9 2.2 1082.8 4.0 43.7 1792.9 5.6 20053 373.7 1.9 1093.0 3.8 43.2 1816.9 5.5 20054 376.2 2.7 1103.1 3.7 42.4 1841.7 5.6 20061 378.2 2.1 1112.9 3.6 42.4 1866.5 5.5 20062 380.0 1.9 1122.5 3.5 42.3 1891.2 5.4 20063 381.7 1.8 1132.1 3.4 42.2 1916.0 5.3 20064 384.4 2.9 1141.8 3.5 41.9 1941.9 5.5
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19981 1.1 1.0 7.7 6.6 19982 1.0 1.1 6.9 5.8 19983 1.4 1.6 5.3 3.7 19984 1.1 0.1 4.5 4.4 19991 1.8 2.6 9.4 6.6 19992 1.5 2.0 1.0 -1.0 19993 1.2 1.2 2.8 1.6 19994 1.7 1.7 6.1 4.3 20001 3.1 2.9 12.0 8.9 20002 2.3 2.4 4.8 2.4 20003 1.6 1.8 9.1 7.1 20004 2.1 2.1 4.3 2.2 20011 3.6 3.3 3.3 0.0 20012 2.5 2.3 2.4 0.1 20013 2.2 2.4 1.3 -1.1 20014 -0.5 -0.4 1.5 1.9 20021 1.4 0.7 3.9 3.1 20022 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.3 20023 1.1 0.1 5.8 5.7 20024 1.9 1.8 3.3 1.5 20031 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.5 20032 2.2 1.9 3.5 1.6 20033 2.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 20034 2.2 2.1 3.7 1.6 20041 2.3 2.2 3.8 1.6 20042 2.3 2.2 3.8 1.6 20043 2.4 2.2 3.9 1.6 20044 2.4 2.3 3.9 1.6 20051 2.4 2.3 3.9 1.6 20052 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.6 20053 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20054 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20061 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20062 2.4 2.2 4.0 1.7 20063 2.4 2.2 4.0 1.7 20064 2.4 2.2 4.0 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.8 4.4 73.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1275.7 4.2 71.4 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1287.9 3.9 74.0 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1310.6 7.2 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1318.3 2.4 72.2 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1330.0 3.6 73.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1345.2 4.6 72.1 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.0 18.3 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1381.4 -6.0 64.4 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1385.1 1.1 65.7 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1383.2 -0.6 61.6 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.3 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1409.5 6.4 65.0 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1437.1 8.1 66.5 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.6 14.2 71.5 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.1 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1543.0 -0.6 68.5 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1562.2 5.1 69.8 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1566.1 1.0 69.9 20024 1.8 6.1 6.1 1584.4 4.7 69.9 20031 2.0 5.9 6.0 1591.3 1.8 69.4 20032 2.2 5.8 5.9 1604.1 3.2 69.4 20033 2.3 5.6 5.8 1609.2 1.3 68.8 20034 2.4 5.5 5.8 1618.9 2.4 68.6 20041 2.5 5.5 5.8 1623.7 1.2 68.0 20042 2.6 5.4 5.8 1631.7 2.0 67.7 20043 2.7 5.4 5.8 1636.4 1.2 67.1 20044 2.7 5.3 5.8 1643.6 1.8 66.7 20051 2.8 5.3 5.8 1648.8 1.3 66.1 20052 2.8 5.2 5.8 1655.8 1.7 65.7 20053 2.8 5.2 5.8 1661.4 1.4 65.1 20054 2.8 5.2 5.8 1668.5 1.7 64.7 20061 2.9 5.2 5.8 1674.7 1.5 64.2 20062 2.9 5.2 5.9 1682.0 1.7 63.7 20063 2.9 5.1 5.9 1688.7 1.6 63.2 20064 2.8 5.1 5.9 1696.2 1.8 62.8
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19981 4.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 2.2 0.7 6.4 19982 4.4 0.3 -0.7 2.6 2.8 1.5 6.1 19983 4.5 0.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 0.9 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 1.1 3.7 2.0 2.2 6.1 19991 4.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.6 5.9 19992 4.3 -0.6 0.1 4.1 2.5 1.0 5.9 19993 4.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.1 5.9 19994 4.1 0.8 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.1 5.7 20001 4.0 1.4 0.8 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.9 0.7 2.5 0.7 0.7 5.6 20003 4.1 0.5 -2.0 -0.1 0.6 -0.7 5.7 20004 4.0 0.6 0.8 3.7 0.7 1.9 5.6 20011 4.2 1.0 2.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 5.9 20012 4.5 0.1 -1.6 -0.3 -1.7 -1.7 6.3 20013 4.8 0.7 0.0 0.5 -1.3 -1.1 6.9 20014 5.6 0.0 -0.2 6.1 -2.8 -1.6 8.0 20021 5.6 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 -2.6 -1.2 8.0 20022 5.9 0.5 0.4 6.0 -0.3 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -1.1 3.0 0.7 1.2 8.2 20024 5.7 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.8 8.2 20031 5.7 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.8 8.1 20032 5.6 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.8 8.1 20033 5.6 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.8 8.1 20034 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 8.1 20041 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 8.0 20042 5.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7 8.0 20043 5.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7 8.0 20044 5.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.6 8.1 20051 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.5 8.1 20052 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 8.2 20053 5.5 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.4 8.3 20054 5.6 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.4 8.4 20061 5.6 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 8.5 20062 5.6 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.4 8.6 20063 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.3 8.7 20064 5.7 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.3 8.7
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19981 6420.7 565.0 -31.3 5.1 5.2 155.6 19.6 36.8 19982 561.1 566.4 1.0 5.0 0.8 192.5 33.0 32.0 19983 -6677.5 568.4 1.4 5.0 2.5 222.8 65.7 35.7 19984 9299.5 550.8 -11.8 4.4 4.1 227.9 57.1 58.4 19991 2256.8 569.4 14.2 4.1 2.2 220.9 88.8 48.3 19992 3799.4 582.6 9.6 2.9 -0.6 264.3 113.0 31.1 19993 -3385.2 570.1 -8.3 2.2 2.6 304.2 117.4 33.7 19994 13681.4 599.4 22.2 2.0 5.0 314.7 128.8 39.6 20001 2977.8 595.3 -2.7 2.7 -0.1 356.9 223.4 32.4 20002 -3341.0 607.7 8.6 3.0 6.9 376.9 197.2 20.2 20003 -436.3 576.0 -19.3 3.0 0.4 419.2 213.1 19.1 20004 -5079.9 546.5 -19.0 3.0 1.4 429.8 193.8 -0.1 20011 -8014.7 498.8 -30.6 2.5 -2.6 409.6 173.8 -16.6 20012 2784.3 528.4 25.9 2.0 0.4 382.4 144.6 -32.4 20013 -8946.0 491.7 -25.0 4.1 2.4 350.8 -51.7 -46.1 20014 5834.6 399.0 -56.6 0.9 3.7 363.9 21.3 -30.2 20021 113.1 421.5 24.5 3.6 6.7 421.6 -145.8 -55.7 20022 -7050.5 440.7 19.5 4.1 1.5 497.2 -190.4 -45.0 20023 -7000.0 454.3 13.0 3.8 4.4 509.7 -185.9 -50.9 20024 1534.6 474.8 19.2 3.6 0.8 525.8 -162.1 -46.1 20031 1399.1 484.8 8.8 3.6 0.7 524.3 -168.4 -40.7 20032 1400.7 498.1 11.4 3.6 0.8 524.6 -174.0 -35.3 20033 1385.3 516.8 15.9 3.6 1.1 528.3 -177.8 -29.8 20034 1357.4 539.7 19.0 3.7 1.3 536.8 -188.2 -23.9 20041 1315.1 562.6 18.0 3.6 1.4 546.3 -190.1 -18.2 20042 1302.4 584.4 16.5 3.6 1.4 555.9 -192.5 -13.0 20043 1293.9 605.4 15.1 3.6 1.4 565.2 -195.6 -8.3 20044 1297.0 626.8 14.9 3.6 1.4 575.1 -207.9 -3.9 20051 1293.1 647.7 14.0 3.5 1.5 584.5 -212.3 0.1 20052 1300.1 668.1 13.2 3.5 1.5 593.3 -217.3 3.7 20053 1308.3 688.4 12.7 3.4 1.5 601.6 -222.9 7.0 20054 1323.6 709.6 12.9 3.5 1.6 610.6 -238.0 10.4 20061 1332.5 730.4 12.3 3.4 1.6 619.3 -244.2 13.7 20062 1346.1 750.8 11.7 3.4 1.6 627.8 -250.8 16.9 20063 1360.1 771.0 11.2 3.3 1.6 636.2 -257.8 20.1 20064 1378.5 792.0 11.4 3.4 1.7 645.6 -274.5 23.5
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19981 -20.9 2.1 0.5 719.8 5.8 -10.6 19982 28.9 10.4 -4.0 719.2 -0.3 -4.3 19983 -9.2 11.5 -2.2 720.3 0.6 -4.8 19984 11.5 7.2 16.3 719.3 -0.6 -0.2 19991 -7.6 18.5 -6.9 730.8 6.6 -3.9 19992 9.1 5.9 4.3 733.4 1.4 4.9 19993 16.9 7.3 10.6 735.3 1.0 5.8 19994 23.6 11.2 12.6 738.2 1.6 5.5 20001 -30.0 10.9 7.7 749.9 6.5 6.8 20002 25.0 -5.1 14.6 765.1 8.4 1.1 20003 -8.0 2.8 11.6 769.7 2.4 4.7 20004 6.1 5.4 -4.0 779.0 4.9 0.9 20011 15.9 7.6 -6.1 809.9 16.8 -2.5 20012 12.0 8.9 -12.4 824.5 7.4 -5.9 20013 1.7 -13.8 -17.2 840.4 7.9 -17.0 20014 28.4 20.1 -9.6 855.6 7.4 4.7 20021 11.7 9.5 3.5 894.1 19.3 -1.6 20022 12.7 -6.4 14.2 917.0 10.6 11.1 20023 2.5 1.0 2.2 924.1 3.1 4.8 20024 -8.1 3.0 2.0 942.1 8.0 1.5 20031 3.0 3.0 5.0 960.4 8.0 1.5 20032 3.0 3.0 5.0 979.0 8.0 1.5 20033 3.0 3.0 5.0 998.0 8.0 1.5 20034 3.0 3.0 5.0 1017.4 8.0 1.5 20041 3.0 3.0 5.0 1037.2 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 5.0 1057.3 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 5.0 1077.9 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 5.0 1098.8 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 5.0 1120.2 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 5.0 1141.9 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 5.0 1164.1 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 5.0 1186.7 8.0 1.5 20061 3.0 3.0 5.0 1209.8 8.0 1.5 20062 3.0 3.0 5.0 1233.3 8.0 1.5 20063 3.0 3.0 5.0 1257.2 8.0 1.5 20064 3.0 3.0 5.0 1281.7 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1889.0 861.9 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1887.0 848.1 183.6 112.6 742.7 20024 1936.5 882.4 188.7 113.8 751.5 20031 1966.5 898.5 191.2 115.2 761.6 20032 1997.7 914.8 194.6 116.5 771.8 20033 2031.3 931.8 199.2 118.0 782.3 20034 2058.9 941.2 205.0 119.5 793.3 20041 2095.7 959.5 210.7 121.0 804.5 20042 2132.6 978.1 216.2 122.6 815.7 20043 2169.4 996.9 221.4 124.2 826.9 20044 2197.6 1007.0 226.8 125.8 838.0 20051 2234.5 1025.9 232.0 127.5 849.1 20052 2271.4 1045.0 237.1 129.1 860.1 20053 2308.4 1064.3 242.2 130.8 871.1 20054 2336.7 1074.6 247.5 132.5 882.2 20061 2374.7 1094.5 252.7 134.2 893.3 20062 2413.0 1114.6 257.8 135.9 904.6 20063 2451.7 1135.2 262.9 137.7 915.9 20064 2481.7 1146.6 268.1 139.5 927.5
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19981 1688.4 444.2 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -190.4 20023 2072.9 586.8 924.1 11.3 305.0 205.7 40.0 -185.9 20024 2098.6 583.2 942.1 11.3 310.9 211.2 40.0 -162.1 20031 2134.9 589.3 960.4 11.3 317.0 216.9 40.0 -168.4 20032 2171.7 595.7 979.0 11.3 323.1 222.5 40.0 -174.0 20033 2209.1 602.3 998.0 11.3 329.4 228.1 40.0 -177.8 20034 2247.1 609.0 1017.4 11.3 335.8 233.6 40.0 -188.2 20041 2285.8 616.0 1037.2 11.3 342.3 239.0 40.0 -190.1 20042 2325.1 623.1 1057.3 11.3 349.0 244.3 40.0 -192.5 20043 2364.9 630.4 1077.9 11.3 355.8 249.6 40.0 -195.6 20044 2405.5 637.8 1098.8 11.3 362.7 254.9 40.0 -207.9 20051 2446.8 645.3 1120.2 11.3 369.7 260.3 40.0 -212.3 20052 2488.7 653.0 1141.9 11.3 376.9 265.6 40.0 -217.3 20053 2531.3 660.7 1164.1 11.3 384.2 270.9 40.0 -222.9 20054 2574.7 668.5 1186.7 11.3 391.7 276.5 40.0 -238.0 20061 2618.9 676.4 1209.8 11.3 399.3 282.1 40.0 -244.2 20062 2663.8 684.5 1233.3 11.3 407.0 287.8 40.0 -250.8 20063 2709.5 692.6 1257.2 11.3 414.9 293.5 40.0 -257.8 20064 2756.2 700.8 1281.7 11.3 423.0 299.5 40.0 -274.5
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.6 265.2 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1313.6 269.8 34.1 695.3 9.4 305.0 20024 1332.1 273.7 35.1 703.0 9.4 310.9 20031 1351.1 278.0 35.6 711.1 9.4 317.0 20032 1370.7 282.4 36.2 719.6 9.4 323.1 20033 1391.3 287.0 37.0 728.5 9.4 329.4 20034 1412.9 291.8 38.1 737.8 9.4 335.8 20041 1434.9 296.7 39.2 747.3 9.4 342.3 20042 1457.2 301.7 40.2 757.0 9.4 349.0 20043 1479.9 306.7 41.2 766.8 9.4 355.8 20044 1502.9 311.8 42.2 776.9 9.4 362.7 20051 1526.2 316.9 43.1 787.0 9.4 369.7 20052 1549.7 322.0 44.1 797.3 9.4 376.9 20053 1573.4 327.2 45.0 807.6 9.4 384.2 20054 1597.6 332.4 46.0 818.1 9.4 391.7 20061 1622.1 337.8 47.0 828.7 9.4 399.3 20062 1646.9 343.2 47.9 839.4 9.4 407.0 20063 1672.1 348.7 48.9 850.2 9.4 414.9 20064 1697.8 354.3 49.8 861.2 9.4 423.0
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 -45.0 20023 1364.5 1038.9 338.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -50.9 20024 1378.2 1050.0 341.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -46.1 20031 1391.8 1061.6 343.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -40.7 20032 1406.1 1073.6 345.7 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -35.3 20033 1421.1 1086.0 348.3 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -29.8 20034 1436.8 1098.7 351.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -23.9 20041 1453.1 1111.9 354.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -18.2 20042 1470.3 1125.4 358.1 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -13.0 20043 1488.2 1139.2 362.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -8.3 20044 1506.8 1153.2 366.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 -3.9 20051 1526.1 1167.5 371.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.1 20052 1546.0 1182.1 377.1 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 3.7 20053 1566.4 1196.8 382.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 7.0 20054 1587.2 1211.7 388.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 10.4 20061 1608.4 1226.7 394.9 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 13.7 20062 1630.0 1242.0 401.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 16.9 20063 1652.0 1257.5 407.7 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 20.1 20064 1674.3 1273.2 414.3 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 23.5
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19981 78.0 -189.3 -16.8 155.6 21.8 -49.3 19982 76.0 -215.1 -21.4 192.5 25.3 -57.3 19983 62.6 -270.0 -18.9 222.8 62.1 -58.6 19984 22.2 -250.8 -15.7 227.9 54.3 -38.0 19991 5.7 -276.3 16.7 220.9 89.4 -56.4 19992 -73.6 -239.9 17.1 264.3 104.0 -71.8 19993 -121.2 -252.1 28.4 304.2 110.2 -69.5 19994 -129.3 -263.1 29.0 314.7 118.0 -69.3 20001 -95.4 -422.0 22.8 356.9 220.5 -82.9 20002 -64.8 -429.6 11.4 376.9 192.1 -86.0 20003 -54.7 -496.1 6.3 419.2 211.9 -86.6 20004 -57.2 -457.5 1.6 429.8 191.6 -108.3 20011 -108.4 -355.6 15.3 409.6 171.4 -132.2 20012 -133.7 -241.0 10.5 382.4 135.8 -154.0 20013 27.3 -180.2 -2.9 350.8 -53.6 -141.4 20014 -213.1 -55.2 38.0 363.9 13.7 -147.3 20021 -13.8 -121.9 46.8 421.6 -153.1 -179.6 20022 24.6 -216.2 51.9 497.2 -198.8 -158.7 20023 8.9 -213.5 52.0 509.7 -193.9 -163.2 20024 -10.0 -236.1 51.5 525.8 -170.7 -160.4 20031 -8.9 -231.7 51.0 524.3 -177.5 -157.1 20032 -11.0 -226.7 50.6 524.6 -183.7 -153.8 20033 -13.8 -226.3 50.2 528.3 -188.2 -150.3 20034 -10.2 -230.7 49.9 536.8 -199.2 -146.6 20041 -13.9 -237.3 49.6 546.3 -201.7 -143.0 20042 -17.2 -243.3 49.3 555.9 -204.7 -140.0 20043 -20.3 -248.0 49.0 565.2 -208.4 -137.5 20044 -16.5 -250.5 48.7 575.1 -221.5 -135.4 20051 -20.4 -252.3 48.4 584.5 -226.5 -133.7 20052 -23.7 -253.1 48.1 593.3 -232.2 -132.4 20053 -26.6 -252.9 47.7 601.6 -238.5 -131.4 20054 -22.0 -251.3 47.4 610.6 -254.2 -130.4 20061 -25.3 -250.2 47.0 619.3 -261.2 -129.6 20062 -28.0 -249.0 46.6 627.8 -268.6 -128.8 20063 -30.4 -247.6 46.1 636.2 -276.3 -128.1 20064 -25.1 -245.3 45.7 645.6 -293.8 -127.2 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8627.9 5719.9 666.8 1675.8 3377.3 19982 8697.3 5820.0 689.3 1697.2 3433.5 19983 8816.5 5895.1 691.7 1716.7 3486.7 19984 8984.6 5989.1 725.1 1744.4 3519.6 19991 9092.7 6076.6 728.7 1773.1 3574.8 19992 9171.7 6195.6 749.9 1814.4 3631.3 19993 9316.5 6299.5 765.1 1841.3 3693.1 19994 9516.5 6414.5 779.9 1891.7 3742.9 20001 9649.5 6552.2 808.4 1926.9 3816.9 20002 9820.7 6638.7 799.3 1964.9 3874.5 20003 9874.6 6736.1 810.6 1988.9 3936.6 20004 9953.7 6808.0 797.2 2011.1 3999.7 20011 10028.0 6904.7 816.8 2031.5 4056.4 20012 10049.8 6959.8 820.3 2044.8 4094.7 20013 10097.7 6983.7 824.0 2044.3 4115.4 20014 10152.8 7099.9 882.6 2044.4 4172.9 20021 10313.2 7174.2 859.0 2085.1 4230.1 20022 10378.2 7254.6 856.9 2108.2 4289.5 20023 10487.8 7364.4 897.5 2118.4 4348.5 20024 10600.6 7446.1 908.7 2128.4 4409.0 20031 10718.0 7532.1 921.4 2141.4 4469.3 20032 10839.8 7622.1 934.7 2157.9 4529.4 20033 10971.0 7715.9 948.8 2177.3 4589.8 20034 11112.4 7814.2 963.9 2199.1 4651.3 20041 11257.7 7915.0 979.3 2222.5 4713.1 20042 11404.3 8017.6 994.9 2247.2 4775.6 20043 11551.3 8121.7 1010.4 2272.6 4838.7 20044 11700.4 8228.5 1026.7 2298.8 4903.0 20051 11849.9 8336.0 1042.8 2325.5 4967.7 20052 11999.7 8444.3 1058.8 2352.4 5033.1 20053 12150.3 8553.4 1074.8 2379.6 5098.9 20054 12303.7 8664.8 1091.6 2407.2 5166.0 20061 12458.5 8777.1 1108.3 2435.1 5233.7 20062 12614.6 8890.3 1125.1 2463.2 5302.0 20063 12772.2 9004.7 1142.0 2491.5 5371.1 20064 12933.4 9121.9 1159.9 2520.4 5441.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1528.7 1422.0 1074.8 347.2 106.7 19982 1498.4 1457.5 1099.9 357.6 40.9 19983 1538.6 1469.1 1098.6 370.5 69.5 19984 1589.3 1513.9 1131.7 382.2 75.4 19991 1618.0 1543.3 1150.0 393.3 74.7 19992 1597.8 1570.1 1167.7 402.4 27.7 19993 1637.8 1591.0 1184.5 406.5 46.8 19994 1693.3 1604.4 1191.9 412.5 88.9 20001 1711.4 1664.6 1236.6 428.0 46.8 20002 1786.3 1697.1 1268.3 428.8 89.2 20003 1766.3 1705.2 1283.4 421.8 61.1 20004 1757.5 1700.4 1274.8 425.6 57.1 20011 1671.1 1698.3 1258.3 440.0 -27.2 20012 1597.1 1654.2 1210.0 444.2 -57.1 20013 1574.9 1635.5 1188.1 447.4 -60.6 20014 1500.7 1597.2 1149.8 447.4 -96.5 20021 1559.5 1589.4 1126.8 462.6 -29.9 20022 1589.4 1584.5 1115.8 468.7 4.9 20023 1585.2 1583.3 1114.9 468.4 1.9 20024 1620.2 1594.2 1119.6 474.7 26.0 20031 1627.6 1597.9 1114.6 483.3 29.7 20032 1636.5 1603.6 1111.5 492.1 32.9 20033 1653.9 1619.4 1118.8 500.6 34.4 20034 1680.9 1644.2 1134.2 510.0 36.7 20041 1709.9 1669.2 1150.7 518.5 40.7 20042 1737.8 1694.0 1167.8 526.2 43.8 20043 1763.9 1718.5 1185.3 533.2 45.4 20044 1789.4 1743.7 1202.9 540.7 45.8 20051 1813.7 1767.5 1220.3 547.3 46.2 20052 1836.6 1790.5 1237.2 553.3 46.1 20053 1858.7 1812.9 1253.9 559.0 45.8 20054 1881.5 1836.2 1270.5 565.7 45.2 20061 1904.2 1858.8 1287.0 571.8 45.4 20062 1926.8 1881.2 1303.5 577.7 45.6 20063 1949.2 1903.5 1319.9 583.6 45.7 20064 1973.0 1927.4 1336.6 590.8 45.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19981 -122.6 974.1 1096.7 1501.9 526.1 975.8 19982 -154.9 959.2 1114.1 1533.8 542.9 990.9 19983 -165.3 946.7 1112.0 1548.1 539.5 1008.6 19984 -164.1 979.7 1143.8 1570.3 548.4 1021.9 19991 -196.4 959.2 1155.6 1594.5 550.0 1044.5 19992 -241.8 970.2 1212.0 1620.1 556.1 1064.0 19993 -274.6 996.8 1271.4 1653.8 569.0 1084.8 19994 -286.7 1031.2 1317.9 1695.4 584.9 1110.5 20001 -330.6 1055.9 1386.5 1716.5 575.7 1140.8 20002 -353.1 1098.0 1451.1 1748.8 598.5 1150.3 20003 -384.9 1130.9 1515.8 1757.1 589.7 1167.4 20004 -393.2 1119.8 1513.0 1781.4 592.9 1188.5 20011 -372.8 1100.0 1472.8 1825.0 613.3 1211.7 20012 -365.6 1059.7 1425.3 1858.5 624.8 1233.7 20013 -312.6 1005.8 1318.4 1851.7 627.4 1224.3 20014 -344.5 971.1 1315.6 1896.7 646.9 1249.8 20021 -360.0 977.5 1337.5 1939.5 672.0 1267.5 20022 -425.6 1018.1 1443.7 1959.8 688.2 1271.6 20023 -437.3 1032.4 1469.7 1975.5 695.1 1280.4 20024 -453.0 1042.0 1495.0 1987.3 692.8 1294.5 20031 -451.1 1059.6 1510.7 2009.4 700.3 1309.1 20032 -451.0 1077.8 1528.8 2032.2 708.1 1324.1 20033 -454.3 1096.4 1550.8 2055.6 716.0 1339.6 20034 -462.4 1115.6 1578.0 2079.6 724.2 1355.4 20041 -471.4 1135.4 1606.8 2104.2 732.5 1371.7 20042 -480.6 1155.6 1636.2 2129.5 741.1 1388.4 20043 -489.5 1176.2 1665.8 2155.2 749.8 1405.4 20044 -499.0 1197.3 1696.3 2181.4 758.7 1422.8 20051 -507.9 1218.9 1726.8 2208.1 767.7 1440.4 20052 -516.3 1240.8 1757.0 2235.1 776.8 1458.2 20053 -524.2 1263.0 1787.2 2262.4 786.1 1476.3 20054 -532.7 1285.7 1818.3 2290.1 795.4 1494.7 20061 -540.9 1308.7 1849.6 2318.1 804.9 1513.2 20062 -549.0 1332.2 1881.1 2346.5 814.5 1532.0 20063 -556.9 1356.0 1912.9 2375.2 824.2 1551.0 20064 -565.8 1380.2 1946.0 2404.3 834.0 1570.3
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8396.3 5577.2 692.5 1656.3 3228.4 19982 8442.9 5662.5 719.7 1680.5 3262.3 19983 8528.5 5715.9 727.1 1693.6 3295.2 19984 8667.9 5790.2 767.3 1715.3 3307.6 19991 8733.2 5857.3 777.6 1736.1 3343.6 19992 8775.5 5940.6 804.2 1756.7 3379.7 19993 8886.9 6009.2 824.1 1767.7 3417.4 19994 9040.1 6084.8 844.2 1799.9 3440.7 20001 9097.4 6166.9 879.5 1809.7 3477.7 20002 9205.7 6211.1 871.3 1831.6 3508.2 20003 9218.7 6271.1 888.5 1840.9 3541.7 20004 9243.8 6300.2 876.5 1853.1 3570.6 20011 9229.9 6340.6 900.6 1863.7 3576.3 20012 9193.1 6364.0 912.4 1862.3 3589.3 20013 9186.4 6388.4 922.6 1868.3 3597.5 20014 9248.8 6493.6 992.0 1885.0 3616.6 20021 9363.2 6539.5 975.9 1921.4 3642.2 20022 9392.4 6567.8 980.7 1920.9 3666.2 20023 9465.2 6646.1 1032.0 1927.2 3686.9 20024 9521.4 6691.7 1040.6 1928.3 3722.8 20031 9577.1 6738.9 1050.4 1931.5 3757.0 20032 9634.1 6788.3 1060.8 1937.5 3790.1 20033 9698.0 6839.6 1071.6 1945.6 3822.5 20034 9769.1 6893.8 1083.4 1955.6 3854.8 20041 9841.4 6948.6 1095.3 1966.6 3886.7 20042 9912.3 7003.5 1107.0 1978.3 3918.2 20043 9981.5 7058.5 1118.5 1990.4 3949.6 20044 10050.6 7114.9 1130.6 2002.9 3981.3 20051 10118.7 7171.0 1142.4 2015.6 4012.9 20052 10185.9 7226.9 1154.0 2028.4 4044.6 20053 10252.6 7282.7 1165.3 2041.2 4076.2 20054 10320.6 7340.1 1177.4 2054.2 4108.5 20061 10388.8 7397.4 1189.2 2067.3 4140.9 20062 10457.0 7454.9 1201.1 2080.4 4173.4 20063 10525.4 7512.6 1212.9 2093.6 4206.1 20064 10595.7 7572.1 1225.5 2107.0 4239.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1545.6 1432.5 1099.5 333.0 113.1 19982 1514.8 1472.8 1132.3 340.5 42.0 19983 1557.9 1486.1 1136.6 349.5 71.8 19984 1612.8 1532.8 1175.4 357.4 80.0 19991 1641.6 1561.6 1197.5 364.1 80.0 19992 1620.0 1588.8 1220.4 368.4 31.2 19993 1660.1 1612.5 1243.3 369.2 47.6 19994 1716.3 1624.1 1252.4 371.7 92.2 20001 1721.5 1676.2 1297.1 379.1 45.3 20002 1796.8 1705.3 1329.1 376.2 91.5 20003 1771.0 1707.9 1340.7 367.2 63.1 20004 1757.0 1697.1 1329.9 367.2 59.9 20011 1659.0 1685.9 1311.4 374.5 -26.9 20012 1576.7 1635.0 1261.0 374.0 -58.3 20013 1554.2 1616.0 1241.7 374.3 -61.8 20014 1479.0 1577.4 1206.4 371.0 -98.4 20021 1543.1 1572.0 1188.4 383.6 -28.9 20022 1572.1 1567.2 1181.1 386.1 4.9 20023 1570.1 1568.2 1182.8 385.4 1.9 20024 1597.7 1571.8 1182.9 389.0 25.9 20031 1596.1 1566.6 1172.4 394.2 29.5 20032 1595.9 1563.3 1163.7 399.6 32.5 20033 1604.3 1570.5 1165.9 404.6 33.8 20034 1622.2 1586.4 1176.2 410.2 35.8 20041 1641.9 1602.3 1187.3 415.0 39.6 20042 1660.2 1617.9 1198.9 419.0 42.4 20043 1676.7 1632.9 1210.6 422.3 43.7 20044 1692.2 1648.4 1222.3 426.1 43.8 20051 1706.4 1662.4 1233.4 429.0 44.0 20052 1719.2 1675.5 1244.1 431.5 43.7 20053 1731.1 1687.9 1254.3 433.7 43.2 20054 1743.4 1701.0 1264.3 436.6 42.4 20061 1755.6 1713.2 1274.2 439.1 42.4 20062 1767.4 1725.1 1283.8 441.3 42.3 20063 1779.1 1736.9 1293.4 443.5 42.2 20064 1791.6 1749.7 1303.0 446.7 41.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19981 -180.8 1003.4 1184.2 1455.8 19982 -223.1 993.1 1216.2 1482.5 19983 -241.3 987.6 1228.9 1489.6 19984 -239.2 1025.6 1264.8 1504.5 19991 -283.2 1007.5 1290.7 1515.5 19992 -319.6 1018.1 1337.7 1526.3 19993 -339.6 1044.1 1383.7 1546.1 19994 -339.6 1075.6 1415.2 1572.8 20001 -368.8 1095.8 1464.6 1567.6 20002 -394.6 1133.9 1528.5 1585.8 20003 -413.1 1165.5 1578.6 1581.5 20004 -418.5 1153.7 1572.2 1592.7 20011 -404.5 1135.8 1540.3 1615.2 20012 -414.8 1098.8 1513.6 1637.4 20013 -419.0 1048.0 1467.0 1633.0 20014 -425.4 1021.8 1447.2 1674.3 20021 -446.5 1030.6 1477.1 1697.1 20022 -487.4 1065.5 1552.9 1703.4 20023 -491.2 1071.2 1562.4 1711.2 20024 -506.9 1076.5 1583.4 1709.9 20031 -504.4 1089.7 1594.1 1717.4 20032 -504.1 1103.1 1607.2 1725.0 20033 -507.6 1116.6 1624.2 1732.7 20034 -516.3 1130.3 1646.6 1740.4 20041 -526.2 1144.2 1670.4 1748.1 20042 -536.4 1158.3 1694.6 1755.9 20043 -546.4 1172.5 1718.9 1763.7 20044 -557.1 1186.9 1743.9 1771.6 20051 -567.2 1201.4 1768.6 1779.5 20052 -576.8 1216.2 1792.9 1787.5 20053 -585.8 1231.1 1816.9 1795.5 20054 -595.5 1246.2 1841.7 1803.6 20061 -605.0 1261.5 1866.5 1811.7 20062 -614.2 1277.0 1891.2 1819.9 20063 -623.3 1292.6 1916.0 1828.1 20064 -633.4 1308.5 1941.9 1836.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1889.0 861.9 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1887.0 848.1 183.6 112.6 742.7 20024 1936.5 882.4 188.7 113.8 751.5 20031 1966.5 898.5 191.2 115.2 761.6 20032 1997.7 914.8 194.6 116.5 771.8 20033 2031.3 931.8 199.2 118.0 782.3 20034 2058.9 941.2 205.0 119.5 793.3 20041 2095.7 959.5 210.7 121.0 804.5 20042 2132.6 978.1 216.2 122.6 815.7 20043 2169.4 996.9 221.4 124.2 826.9 20044 2197.6 1007.0 226.8 125.8 838.0 20051 2234.5 1025.9 232.0 127.5 849.1 20052 2271.4 1045.0 237.1 129.1 860.1 20053 2308.4 1064.3 242.2 130.8 871.1 20054 2336.7 1074.6 247.5 132.5 882.2 20061 2374.7 1094.5 252.7 134.2 893.3 20062 2413.0 1114.6 257.8 135.9 904.6 20063 2451.7 1135.2 262.9 137.7 915.9 20064 2481.7 1146.6 268.1 139.5 927.5
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19981 1688.4 444.2 727.9 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 726.3 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 729.7 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 738.5 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 739.1 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 743.3 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 743.9 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 756.9 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 758.5 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 774.6 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 781.3 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 803.5 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 816.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 832.2 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 849.3 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 870.9 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 916.9 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 927.6 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -190.4 20023 2072.9 586.8 935.4 924.1 11.3 305.0 205.7 40.0 -185.9 20024 2098.6 583.2 953.4 942.1 11.3 310.9 211.2 40.0 -162.1 20031 2134.9 589.3 971.7 960.4 11.3 317.0 216.9 40.0 -168.4 20032 2171.7 595.7 990.3 979.0 11.3 323.1 222.5 40.0 -174.0 20033 2209.1 602.3 1009.3 998.0 11.3 329.4 228.1 40.0 -177.8 20034 2247.1 609.0 1028.7 1017.4 11.3 335.8 233.6 40.0 -188.2 20041 2285.8 616.0 1048.5 1037.2 11.3 342.3 239.0 40.0 -190.1 20042 2325.1 623.1 1068.6 1057.3 11.3 349.0 244.3 40.0 -192.5 20043 2364.9 630.4 1089.2 1077.9 11.3 355.8 249.6 40.0 -195.6 20044 2405.5 637.8 1110.1 1098.8 11.3 362.7 254.9 40.0 -207.9 20051 2446.8 645.3 1131.5 1120.2 11.3 369.7 260.3 40.0 -212.3 20052 2488.7 653.0 1153.2 1141.9 11.3 376.9 265.6 40.0 -217.3 20053 2531.3 660.7 1175.4 1164.1 11.3 384.2 270.9 40.0 -222.9 20054 2574.7 668.5 1198.0 1186.7 11.3 391.7 276.5 40.0 -238.0 20061 2618.9 676.4 1221.1 1209.8 11.3 399.3 282.1 40.0 -244.2 20062 2663.8 684.5 1244.6 1233.3 11.3 407.0 287.8 40.0 -250.8 20063 2709.5 692.6 1268.5 1257.2 11.3 414.9 293.5 40.0 -257.8 20064 2756.2 700.8 1293.0 1281.7 11.3 423.0 299.5 40.0 -274.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.6 265.2 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1313.6 269.8 34.1 695.3 9.4 305.0 20024 1332.1 273.7 35.1 703.0 9.4 310.9 20031 1351.1 278.0 35.6 711.1 9.4 317.0 20032 1370.7 282.4 36.2 719.6 9.4 323.1 20033 1391.3 287.0 37.0 728.5 9.4 329.4 20034 1412.9 291.8 38.1 737.8 9.4 335.8 20041 1434.9 296.7 39.2 747.3 9.4 342.3 20042 1457.2 301.7 40.2 757.0 9.4 349.0 20043 1479.9 306.7 41.2 766.8 9.4 355.8 20044 1502.9 311.8 42.2 776.9 9.4 362.7 20051 1526.2 316.9 43.1 787.0 9.4 369.7 20052 1549.7 322.0 44.1 797.3 9.4 376.9 20053 1573.4 327.2 45.0 807.6 9.4 384.2 20054 1597.6 332.4 46.0 818.1 9.4 391.7 20061 1622.1 337.8 47.0 828.7 9.4 399.3 20062 1646.9 343.2 47.9 839.4 9.4 407.0 20063 1672.1 348.7 48.9 850.2 9.4 414.9 20064 1697.8 354.3 49.8 861.2 9.4 423.0
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 0.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 0.0 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 0.0 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 0.0 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 0.0 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 0.0 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 0.0 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 0.0 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 0.0 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 0.0 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 0.0 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 0.0 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 0.0 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 0.0 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 0.0 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 0.0 -45.0 20023 1364.5 1038.9 338.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -50.9 20024 1378.2 1050.0 341.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -46.1 20031 1391.8 1061.6 343.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -40.7 20032 1406.1 1073.6 345.7 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -35.3 20033 1421.1 1086.0 348.3 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -29.8 20034 1436.8 1098.7 351.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -23.9 20041 1453.1 1111.9 354.4 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -18.2 20042 1470.3 1125.4 358.1 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -13.0 20043 1488.2 1139.2 362.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -8.3 20044 1506.8 1153.2 366.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 -3.9 20051 1526.1 1167.5 371.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 0.1 20052 1546.0 1182.1 377.1 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 3.7 20053 1566.4 1196.8 382.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 7.0 20054 1587.2 1211.7 388.8 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 10.4 20061 1608.4 1226.7 394.9 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 13.7 20062 1630.0 1242.0 401.2 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 16.9 20063 1652.0 1257.5 407.7 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 20.1 20064 1674.3 1273.2 414.3 -1.9 0.4 -10.9 0.0 23.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19981 102.8 102.6 96.3 101.2 104.6 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.0 105.2 19983 103.4 103.1 95.1 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.4 94.5 101.7 106.4 19991 104.1 103.7 93.7 102.1 106.9 19992 104.5 104.3 93.2 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.2 108.1 19994 105.3 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.1 106.2 91.9 106.5 109.8 20002 106.7 106.9 91.7 107.3 110.4 20003 107.1 107.4 91.2 108.0 111.2 20004 107.7 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.0 20011 108.6 108.9 90.7 109.0 113.4 20012 109.3 109.4 89.9 109.8 114.1 20013 109.9 109.3 89.3 109.4 114.4 20014 109.8 109.3 89.0 108.5 115.4 20021 110.1 109.7 88.0 108.5 116.1 20022 110.5 110.5 87.4 109.8 117.0 20023 110.8 110.8 87.0 109.9 117.9 20024 111.3 111.3 87.3 110.4 118.4 20031 111.9 111.8 87.7 110.9 119.0 20032 112.5 112.3 88.1 111.4 119.5 20033 113.1 112.8 88.5 111.9 120.1 20034 113.7 113.4 89.0 112.5 120.7 20041 114.4 113.9 89.4 113.0 121.3 20042 115.1 114.5 89.9 113.6 121.9 20043 115.7 115.1 90.3 114.2 122.5 20044 116.4 115.7 90.8 114.8 123.2 20051 117.1 116.2 91.3 115.4 123.8 20052 117.8 116.8 91.8 116.0 124.4 20053 118.5 117.4 92.2 116.6 125.1 20054 119.2 118.0 92.7 117.2 125.7 20061 119.9 118.7 93.2 117.8 126.4 20062 120.6 119.3 93.7 118.4 127.0 20063 121.3 119.9 94.2 119.0 127.7 20064 122.1 120.5 94.6 119.6 128.4
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19981 99.3 97.8 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.0 97.1 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.5 19983 98.9 96.7 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.8 96.3 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.4 19991 98.8 96.0 108.0 95.2 89.5 105.2 19992 98.8 95.7 109.2 95.3 90.6 106.1 19993 98.7 95.3 110.1 95.5 91.9 107.0 19994 98.8 95.2 111.0 95.9 93.1 107.8 20001 99.3 95.3 112.9 96.4 94.7 109.5 20002 99.5 95.4 114.0 96.8 94.9 110.3 20003 99.8 95.7 114.9 97.0 96.0 111.1 20004 100.2 95.9 115.9 97.1 96.2 111.8 20011 100.7 96.0 117.5 96.8 95.6 113.0 20012 101.2 96.0 118.8 96.4 94.2 113.5 20013 101.2 95.7 119.5 96.0 89.9 113.4 20014 101.3 95.3 120.6 95.0 90.9 113.3 20021 101.1 94.8 120.6 94.8 90.5 114.3 20022 101.1 94.5 121.4 95.6 93.0 115.1 20023 101.0 94.3 121.5 96.4 94.1 115.4 20024 101.4 94.6 122.0 96.8 94.4 116.2 20031 102.0 95.1 122.6 97.2 94.8 117.0 20032 102.6 95.5 123.1 97.7 95.1 117.8 20033 103.1 96.0 123.7 98.2 95.5 118.6 20034 103.7 96.4 124.3 98.7 95.8 119.5 20041 104.2 96.9 125.0 99.2 96.2 120.4 20042 104.7 97.4 125.6 99.8 96.5 121.3 20043 105.2 97.9 126.2 100.3 96.9 122.2 20044 105.8 98.4 126.9 100.9 97.3 123.1 20051 106.3 98.9 127.6 101.5 97.6 124.1 20052 106.9 99.5 128.2 102.0 98.0 125.0 20053 107.4 100.0 128.9 102.6 98.4 126.0 20054 108.0 100.5 129.6 103.2 98.7 127.0 20061 108.5 101.0 130.2 103.7 99.1 128.0 20062 109.1 101.5 130.9 104.3 99.5 128.9 20063 109.6 102.1 131.6 104.9 99.8 129.9 20064 110.2 102.6 132.3 105.5 100.2 130.9
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment