US Forecast: April 25, 2003
Forecast Period

2003:2--2006:4 (15 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 25, 2003.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2002:4. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the April 27, 2001, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. The changes that have been made to the model since the April 27, 2001, version are discussed in Current Versions and References and Previous Versions and References.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2003:1.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2003:1-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.3       
COG           3.0                  3.0       
JG            1.0                 -0.9       
TRGS          8.0                  7.1       
TRSH          7.0                  6.4       
COS           3.0                  5.3       
JS            1.0                  1.7       
EX            1.0                  5.0
PIM           1.5                 -0.1

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

The tax cut package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in May 2001 has been incorporated into the forecast. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimates of the tax reductions by fiscal year, and these estimates were used as a guide in choosing values for D1G, the personal income tax parameter in the model. D1G was adjusted in the manner discussed in Section 5.2 of The US Model Workbook, experiment 5.5. You can examine the values for D1G to see what was done. The tax reduction in each quarter of the current fiscal year is about $90 billion at an annual rate, and this rises to a little over $100 billion by 2004.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve" in the left menu under "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2006:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2004. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions out a number of years.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the three remaining quarters of 2003 are 2.7, 2.8, and 3.0 percent respectively. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain roughly unchanged throughout the forecast period.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be about 2.1 percent in 2003 and 2.4 percent in 2004.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, 2001:3, and 2001:4 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2 percent by the middle of 2004.

Other Variables: The federal government is now running a fairly large budget deficit, and the model is predicting that the deficit will continue to be large throughout the forecast period (see the predicted values for SGP).

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (between $560.3 and $685.5 billion).

Possible Experiments to Run

The current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending (if you think that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed for the forecast, perhaps because of increased defense spending). You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate (if you think that the model has overpredicted the bill rate). You can also lower the tax rate D1G if you think that a tax rate cut will be passed. (The present forecasts assumes no further tax cuts from those already passed.) On the contractionary side, if you think there will be an oil price shock you can increase PIM. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. You may also want to use lower values for exports (EX) than the forecast uses if you think there will be a serious slowdown abroad, due perhaps to SARS.

Regarding the stock market, the large fall in equity prices in the second and third quarters of 2002 is incorporated into the current forecast. (The value of CG (at a quarterly rate) was -$1,738 billion in 2002:2, -$1,976 billion in 2002:3, $720 billion in 2002:4, and -$300 billion in 2003:1..) Each fall in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG of about -$100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 900, and if you think it will go to, say, 700 before the stock market correction is over, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: April 25, 2003
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19981 8396.3 6.1 3228.4 4.5 1656.3 5.5 692.5 7.0 19982 8442.9 2.2 3262.3 4.3 1680.5 6.0 719.7 16.7 19983 8528.5 4.1 3295.2 4.1 1693.6 3.2 727.1 4.2 19984 8667.9 6.7 3307.6 1.5 1715.3 5.2 767.3 24.0 19991 8733.2 3.0 3343.6 4.4 1736.1 4.9 777.6 5.5 19992 8775.5 2.0 3379.7 4.4 1756.7 4.8 804.2 14.4 19993 8886.9 5.2 3417.4 4.5 1767.7 2.5 824.1 10.3 19994 9040.1 7.1 3440.7 2.8 1799.9 7.5 844.2 10.1 20001 9097.4 2.6 3477.7 4.4 1809.7 2.2 879.5 17.8 20002 9205.7 4.8 3508.2 3.6 1831.6 4.9 871.3 -3.7 20003 9218.7 0.6 3541.7 3.9 1840.9 2.0 888.5 8.1 20004 9243.8 1.1 3570.6 3.3 1853.1 2.7 876.5 -5.3 20011 9229.9 -0.6 3576.3 0.6 1863.7 2.3 900.6 11.5 20012 9193.1 -1.6 3589.3 1.5 1862.3 -0.3 912.4 5.3 20013 9186.4 -0.3 3597.5 0.9 1868.3 1.3 922.6 4.5 20014 9248.8 2.7 3616.6 2.1 1885.0 3.6 992.0 33.7 20021 9363.2 5.0 3642.2 2.9 1921.4 8.0 975.9 -6.3 20022 9392.4 1.3 3666.2 2.7 1920.9 -0.1 980.7 2.0 20023 9485.6 4.0 3687.0 2.3 1925.8 1.0 1032.4 22.8 20024 9518.2 1.4 3707.0 2.2 1950.0 5.1 1010.6 -8.2 20031 9556.0 1.6 3711.8 0.5 1969.9 4.1 1007.7 -1.1 20032 9620.3 2.7 3743.7 3.5 1978.5 1.8 1021.5 5.6 20033 9687.8 2.8 3774.7 3.3 1986.6 1.6 1034.5 5.2 20034 9759.4 3.0 3805.4 3.3 1996.2 2.0 1047.6 5.2 20041 9831.2 3.0 3835.8 3.2 2007.1 2.2 1060.3 4.9 20042 9901.2 2.9 3865.9 3.2 2018.9 2.4 1072.4 4.7 20043 9969.1 2.8 3895.8 3.1 2031.1 2.4 1084.1 4.4 20044 10036.9 2.8 3925.9 3.1 2043.8 2.5 1095.9 4.5 20051 10103.9 2.7 3955.9 3.1 2056.7 2.5 1107.2 4.2 20052 10170.2 2.7 3985.8 3.1 2069.6 2.5 1118.1 4.0 20053 10236.5 2.6 4015.8 3.0 2082.5 2.5 1128.7 3.8 20054 10304.7 2.7 4046.3 3.1 2095.7 2.6 1139.9 4.0 20061 10373.5 2.7 4076.9 3.1 2108.9 2.5 1150.8 3.9 20062 10442.7 2.7 4107.7 3.1 2122.1 2.5 1161.7 3.8 20063 10512.3 2.7 4138.7 3.1 2135.4 2.5 1172.5 3.8 20064 10584.2 2.8 4170.4 3.1 2149.0 2.6 1184.2 4.0
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19981 294.5 16.7 945.7 23.9 113.1 1184.2 15.9 19982 301.1 9.3 975.7 13.3 42.0 1216.2 11.3 19983 309.1 11.0 979.4 1.5 71.8 1228.9 4.2 19984 316.1 9.3 1016.1 15.9 80.0 1264.8 12.2 19991 309.7 -7.8 1039.8 9.7 80.0 1290.7 8.4 19992 313.4 4.8 1061.7 8.7 31.2 1337.7 15.4 19993 314.1 0.9 1083.6 8.5 47.6 1383.7 14.5 19994 316.2 2.7 1091.8 3.0 92.2 1415.2 9.4 20001 320.0 4.9 1133.8 16.3 45.3 1464.6 14.7 20002 317.5 -3.0 1164.2 11.1 91.5 1528.5 18.6 20003 309.9 -9.2 1174.7 3.7 63.1 1578.6 13.8 20004 309.9 0.0 1163.9 -3.6 59.9 1572.2 -1.6 20011 321.1 15.2 1143.1 -7.0 -26.9 1540.3 -7.9 20012 320.6 -0.5 1094.8 -15.9 -58.3 1513.6 -6.8 20013 320.9 0.3 1075.7 -6.8 -61.8 1467.0 -11.8 20014 318.1 -3.5 1043.4 -11.5 -98.4 1447.2 -5.3 20021 328.9 14.3 1026.5 -6.3 -28.9 1477.1 8.5 20022 331.0 2.6 1020.0 -2.5 4.9 1552.9 22.2 20023 331.9 1.0 1018.5 -0.6 18.8 1565.7 3.3 20024 339.5 9.5 1025.4 2.7 25.8 1593.8 7.4 20031 349.2 12.0 1014.5 -4.2 12.8 1561.3 -7.9 20032 352.3 3.6 1006.7 -3.0 21.2 1576.1 3.9 20033 356.4 4.7 1005.6 -0.4 25.9 1589.6 3.5 20034 360.7 4.9 1011.6 2.4 32.5 1610.0 5.2 20041 363.9 3.7 1020.1 3.4 38.3 1631.4 5.4 20042 366.4 2.8 1031.7 4.6 41.3 1654.4 5.8 20043 368.2 2.0 1043.3 4.6 43.0 1677.4 5.7 20044 370.5 2.5 1055.5 4.8 43.2 1701.4 5.8 20051 371.7 1.4 1068.1 4.8 43.3 1725.1 5.7 20052 372.6 0.9 1080.9 4.9 43.0 1748.7 5.6 20053 373.2 0.7 1094.1 5.0 42.5 1772.3 5.5 20054 374.8 1.7 1107.8 5.1 41.9 1797.0 5.7 20061 375.9 1.2 1122.1 5.2 42.0 1821.9 5.7 20062 376.9 1.1 1136.6 5.3 42.2 1847.1 5.7 20063 378.0 1.2 1151.6 5.4 42.3 1872.7 5.7 20064 380.3 2.4 1167.1 5.5 42.2 1899.8 5.9
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19981 1.1 1.0 7.7 6.6 19982 1.0 1.1 6.9 5.8 19983 1.4 1.6 5.3 3.7 19984 1.1 0.1 4.5 4.4 19991 1.8 2.6 9.4 6.6 19992 1.5 2.0 1.0 -1.0 19993 1.2 1.2 2.8 1.6 19994 1.7 1.7 6.1 4.3 20001 3.1 2.9 12.0 8.9 20002 2.3 2.4 4.8 2.4 20003 1.6 1.8 9.1 7.1 20004 2.1 2.1 4.3 2.2 20011 3.6 3.3 3.3 0.0 20012 2.5 2.3 2.4 0.1 20013 2.2 2.4 1.3 -1.1 20014 -0.5 -0.4 1.5 1.9 20021 1.4 0.7 3.9 3.1 20022 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.4 20023 1.0 0.1 2.6 2.5 20024 1.8 2.4 3.3 0.9 20031 2.5 2.2 5.1 2.8 20032 2.0 2.0 3.6 1.6 20033 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.6 20034 2.2 2.1 3.7 1.6 20041 2.2 2.2 3.8 1.6 20042 2.3 2.3 3.9 1.6 20043 2.4 2.3 3.9 1.6 20044 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.6 20051 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.6 20052 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.6 20053 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.6 20054 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20061 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20062 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20063 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7 20064 2.4 2.2 4.0 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.8 4.4 73.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1275.7 4.2 71.4 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1287.9 3.9 74.0 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1310.6 7.2 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1318.3 2.4 72.2 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1330.0 3.6 73.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1345.2 4.6 72.1 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.0 18.3 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1381.4 -6.0 64.4 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1385.1 1.1 65.7 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1383.2 -0.6 61.6 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.3 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1409.5 6.4 65.0 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1437.1 8.1 66.5 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.6 14.2 71.5 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.1 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1543.1 -0.6 68.5 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1561.9 5.0 69.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1593.8 8.4 70.9 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1609.4 4.0 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1640.6 8.0 71.7 20032 1.3 5.8 5.6 1656.5 3.9 71.8 20033 1.5 5.6 5.5 1668.3 2.9 71.7 20034 1.6 5.4 5.4 1681.7 3.2 71.8 20041 1.8 5.3 5.4 1689.6 1.9 71.4 20042 1.9 5.2 5.3 1698.2 2.0 71.1 20043 2.0 5.1 5.3 1704.7 1.6 70.6 20044 2.1 5.0 5.3 1712.4 1.8 70.2 20051 2.2 5.0 5.3 1718.2 1.4 69.7 20052 2.2 4.9 5.3 1724.8 1.5 69.2 20053 2.2 4.9 5.3 1730.7 1.4 68.7 20054 2.2 4.8 5.3 1737.4 1.6 68.2 20061 2.2 4.8 5.3 1743.6 1.4 67.7 20062 2.2 4.7 5.3 1750.3 1.6 67.2 20063 2.2 4.7 5.3 1756.9 1.5 66.7 20064 2.2 4.7 5.3 1764.0 1.6 66.3
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19981 4.6 0.8 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.0 6.5 19982 4.4 0.5 -0.6 2.5 2.8 1.6 6.2 19983 4.5 0.3 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.2 6.3 19984 4.4 1.0 1.4 4.0 2.0 2.4 6.2 19991 4.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.0 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.5 0.1 3.8 2.5 0.9 6.0 19993 4.3 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.3 1.3 6.0 19994 4.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 5.8 20001 4.0 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 2.5 0.8 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.3 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.9 5.7 20003 4.0 0.3 -2.0 0.6 0.6 -0.7 5.8 20004 3.9 0.9 0.8 3.0 0.7 1.9 5.7 20011 4.2 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.0 1.3 6.0 20012 4.4 -0.2 -2.0 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 6.4 20013 4.8 0.0 -0.4 2.8 -1.3 -1.0 7.0 20014 5.6 0.5 0.4 4.8 -2.8 -1.4 8.1 20021 5.6 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -2.6 -0.2 8.1 20022 5.9 0.5 0.3 4.9 -0.3 0.7 8.5 20023 5.8 -0.2 -0.7 4.4 0.9 1.4 8.4 20024 5.9 -1.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 -0.4 8.6 20031 5.8 -0.9 0.1 0.9 -1.1 0.6 8.4 20032 5.9 1.2 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.9 8.7 20033 6.0 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.6 8.8 20034 5.9 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 8.7 20041 5.8 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.7 20042 5.8 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.6 20043 5.7 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 8.6 20044 5.7 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 8.6 20051 5.7 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 8.7 20052 5.8 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 8.8 20053 5.8 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.5 8.9 20054 5.9 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.4 9.0 20061 5.9 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.4 9.1 20062 6.0 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 9.2 20063 6.0 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 9.3 20064 6.1 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 9.4
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19981 6392.0 565.0 -31.3 5.1 5.2 155.6 19.6 36.8 19982 568.4 566.4 1.0 5.0 0.8 192.5 33.0 32.0 19983 -6736.0 568.4 1.4 5.0 2.5 222.8 65.7 35.7 19984 9171.2 550.8 -11.8 4.4 4.1 227.9 57.1 58.4 19991 2264.0 569.4 14.2 4.1 2.2 220.9 88.8 48.3 19992 3839.9 582.6 9.6 2.9 -0.6 264.3 113.0 31.1 19993 -3429.4 570.1 -8.3 2.2 2.6 304.2 117.4 33.7 19994 13549.7 599.4 22.2 2.0 5.0 314.7 128.8 39.6 20001 2954.0 595.3 -2.7 2.7 -0.1 356.9 223.4 32.4 20002 -3306.9 607.7 8.6 3.0 6.9 376.9 197.2 20.2 20003 -441.0 576.0 -19.3 3.0 0.4 419.2 213.1 19.1 20004 -5330.5 546.5 -19.0 3.0 1.4 429.8 193.8 -0.1 20011 -7921.4 498.8 -30.6 2.5 -2.6 409.6 173.8 -16.6 20012 2859.9 528.4 25.9 2.0 0.4 382.4 144.6 -32.4 20013 -9002.2 491.7 -25.0 4.1 2.4 350.8 -51.7 -46.1 20014 5766.1 399.0 -56.6 0.9 3.7 363.9 21.3 -30.2 20021 90.8 421.5 24.5 3.6 6.7 421.6 -145.8 -55.7 20022 -6950.4 440.8 19.6 4.2 1.5 497.2 -195.7 -44.9 20023 -7905.2 452.4 10.9 3.6 5.0 495.5 -210.5 -54.8 20024 2882.0 478.4 25.0 3.9 -0.8 541.2 -247.7 -50.6 20031 -1200.0 487.5 7.8 3.8 2.3 557.6 -253.6 -66.4 20032 1528.2 510.8 20.6 3.7 2.2 560.3 -260.8 -64.3 20033 1464.2 531.7 17.4 3.6 1.5 561.5 -265.4 -60.7 20034 1433.8 550.3 14.8 3.7 1.2 569.0 -276.9 -55.8 20041 1394.4 567.4 13.0 3.6 1.1 577.2 -279.9 -50.7 20042 1364.5 583.8 12.0 3.6 1.1 586.6 -283.3 -45.9 20043 1345.6 600.2 11.7 3.6 1.1 595.7 -287.4 -41.8 20044 1344.7 618.2 12.6 3.6 1.2 605.5 -300.5 -38.1 20051 1342.7 636.6 12.4 3.6 1.3 614.9 -305.7 -35.1 20052 1348.2 655.4 12.3 3.5 1.4 624.0 -311.5 -32.5 20053 1355.0 674.6 12.2 3.5 1.5 633.0 -317.9 -30.2 20054 1367.0 695.2 12.8 3.5 1.6 642.9 -333.5 -28.0 20061 1373.5 715.3 12.1 3.5 1.6 653.0 -340.5 -25.8 20062 1384.0 735.1 11.5 3.4 1.6 663.2 -348.0 -23.8 20063 1395.7 754.5 11.0 3.4 1.6 673.7 -355.8 -21.7 20064 1411.0 774.7 11.2 3.5 1.7 685.5 -373.2 -19.4
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19981 -20.9 2.1 0.5 719.8 5.8 -10.6 19982 28.9 10.4 -4.0 719.2 -0.3 -4.3 19983 -9.2 11.5 -2.2 720.3 0.6 -4.8 19984 11.5 7.2 16.3 719.3 -0.6 -0.2 19991 -7.6 18.5 -6.9 730.8 6.6 -3.9 19992 9.1 5.9 4.3 733.4 1.4 4.9 19993 16.9 7.3 10.6 735.3 1.0 5.8 19994 23.6 11.2 12.6 738.2 1.6 5.5 20001 -30.0 10.9 7.7 749.9 6.5 6.8 20002 25.0 -5.1 14.6 765.1 8.4 1.1 20003 -8.0 2.8 11.6 769.7 2.4 4.7 20004 6.1 5.4 -4.0 779.0 4.9 0.9 20011 15.9 7.6 -6.1 809.9 16.8 -2.5 20012 12.0 8.9 -12.4 824.5 7.4 -5.9 20013 1.7 -13.8 -17.2 840.4 7.9 -17.0 20014 28.4 20.1 -9.6 855.6 7.4 4.7 20021 11.7 9.5 3.5 894.1 19.3 -1.6 20022 12.7 -6.4 14.2 917.0 10.6 11.1 20023 5.1 3.3 4.7 924.4 3.3 4.4 20024 18.2 1.3 -5.8 934.0 4.2 0.9 20031 0.4 -0.4 -3.2 951.3 7.6 11.6 20032 3.0 3.0 5.0 969.8 8.0 1.5 20033 3.0 3.0 5.0 988.6 8.0 1.5 20034 3.0 3.0 5.0 1007.8 8.0 1.5 20041 3.0 3.0 5.0 1027.4 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 5.0 1047.4 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 5.0 1067.7 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 5.0 1088.5 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 5.0 1109.6 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 5.0 1131.2 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 5.0 1153.1 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 5.0 1175.5 8.0 1.5 20061 3.0 3.0 5.0 1198.4 8.0 1.5 20062 3.0 3.0 5.0 1221.6 8.0 1.5 20063 3.0 3.0 5.0 1245.4 8.0 1.5 20064 3.0 3.0 5.0 1269.6 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1869.7 825.3 187.5 111.5 745.4 20031 1892.8 832.2 189.8 111.3 759.5 20032 1920.4 844.1 195.6 112.7 768.0 20033 1951.0 857.9 200.9 114.1 778.1 20034 1975.4 865.0 205.5 115.6 789.3 20041 2009.0 881.0 209.8 117.0 801.1 20042 2042.7 897.4 213.9 118.6 812.9 20043 2076.4 913.7 218.0 120.1 824.5 20044 2101.7 921.4 222.5 121.7 836.0 20051 2135.5 937.7 227.1 123.3 847.4 20052 2169.3 954.0 231.9 124.8 858.6 20053 2203.2 970.3 236.7 126.4 869.8 20054 2228.6 977.7 241.8 128.1 881.0 20061 2263.3 994.5 246.9 129.7 892.3 20062 2298.3 1011.5 251.8 131.3 903.6 20063 2333.6 1028.9 256.7 133.0 915.1 20064 2360.3 1037.1 261.8 134.7 926.8
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19981 1688.4 444.2 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -247.7 20031 2146.4 628.4 951.3 20.8 312.9 193.5 40.9 -253.6 20032 2181.2 633.9 969.8 20.8 319.0 196.8 40.9 -260.8 20033 2216.4 640.9 988.6 20.8 325.2 200.0 40.9 -265.4 20034 2252.3 648.2 1007.8 20.8 331.5 203.1 40.9 -276.9 20041 2288.9 655.7 1027.4 20.8 337.9 206.2 40.9 -279.9 20042 2326.0 663.4 1047.4 20.8 344.5 209.1 40.9 -283.3 20043 2363.7 671.2 1067.7 20.8 351.2 211.9 40.9 -287.4 20044 2402.2 679.3 1088.5 20.8 358.0 214.7 40.9 -300.5 20051 2441.2 687.4 1109.6 20.8 365.0 217.5 40.9 -305.7 20052 2480.8 695.6 1131.2 20.8 372.1 220.3 40.9 -311.5 20053 2521.1 703.9 1153.1 20.8 379.3 223.0 40.9 -317.9 20054 2562.1 712.3 1175.5 20.8 386.7 225.9 40.9 -333.5 20061 2603.8 720.8 1198.4 20.8 394.2 228.8 40.9 -340.5 20062 2646.2 729.4 1221.6 20.8 401.8 231.7 40.9 -348.0 20063 2689.4 738.0 1245.4 20.8 409.6 234.7 40.9 -355.8 20064 2733.5 746.8 1269.6 20.8 417.6 237.8 40.9 -373.2
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1333.4 271.4 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1343.2 276.0 35.3 709.5 9.5 312.9 20032 1363.0 279.6 36.4 718.5 9.5 319.0 20033 1383.2 283.8 37.4 727.4 9.5 325.2 20034 1404.3 288.4 38.3 736.7 9.5 331.5 20041 1425.9 293.3 39.1 746.1 9.5 337.9 20042 1447.8 298.2 39.8 755.8 9.5 344.5 20043 1470.1 303.2 40.6 765.6 9.5 351.2 20044 1492.7 308.1 41.4 775.6 9.5 358.0 20051 1515.5 313.1 42.3 785.7 9.5 365.0 20052 1538.6 318.0 43.2 795.8 9.5 372.1 20053 1561.8 323.0 44.1 805.9 9.5 379.3 20054 1585.5 328.0 45.0 816.3 9.5 386.7 20061 1609.4 333.1 46.0 826.7 9.5 394.2 20062 1633.6 338.3 46.9 837.1 9.5 401.8 20063 1658.2 343.6 47.8 847.7 9.5 409.6 20064 1683.3 349.0 48.7 858.5 9.5 417.6
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 -50.6 20031 1409.6 1070.4 354.2 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -66.4 20032 1427.2 1082.7 359.5 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -64.3 20033 1444.0 1095.3 363.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -60.7 20034 1460.2 1108.2 366.9 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -55.8 20041 1476.6 1121.6 370.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -50.7 20042 1493.8 1135.4 373.4 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -45.9 20043 1511.9 1149.5 377.4 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -41.8 20044 1530.9 1163.9 382.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -38.1 20051 1550.6 1178.5 387.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -35.1 20052 1571.0 1193.3 392.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -32.5 20053 1592.0 1208.3 398.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -30.2 20054 1613.4 1223.4 405.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -28.0 20061 1635.2 1238.7 411.5 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -25.8 20062 1657.4 1254.2 418.2 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -23.8 20063 1679.9 1269.8 425.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -21.7 20064 1702.7 1285.6 432.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 -19.4
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19981 78.0 -189.3 -16.8 155.6 21.8 -49.3 19982 76.0 -215.1 -21.4 192.5 25.3 -57.3 19983 62.6 -270.0 -18.9 222.8 62.1 -58.6 19984 22.2 -250.8 -15.7 227.9 54.3 -38.0 19991 5.7 -276.3 16.7 220.9 89.4 -56.4 19992 -73.6 -239.9 17.1 264.3 104.0 -71.8 19993 -121.2 -252.1 28.4 304.2 110.2 -69.5 19994 -129.3 -263.1 29.0 314.7 118.0 -69.3 20001 -95.4 -422.0 22.8 356.9 220.5 -82.9 20002 -64.8 -429.6 11.4 376.9 192.1 -86.0 20003 -54.7 -496.1 6.3 419.2 211.9 -86.6 20004 -57.2 -457.5 1.6 429.8 191.6 -108.3 20011 -108.4 -355.6 15.3 409.6 171.4 -132.2 20012 -133.7 -241.0 10.5 382.4 135.8 -154.0 20013 27.3 -180.2 -2.9 350.8 -53.6 -141.4 20014 -213.1 -55.2 38.0 363.9 13.7 -147.3 20021 -13.8 -121.9 46.8 421.6 -153.1 -179.6 20022 30.4 -216.6 51.8 497.2 -204.2 -158.6 20023 -12.4 -155.4 53.4 495.5 -210.9 -170.2 20024 3.8 -181.2 52.6 541.2 -250.6 -165.8 20031 -18.0 -155.7 53.4 557.6 -257.1 -180.2 20032 -30.6 -139.5 54.7 560.3 -264.8 -180.1 20033 -36.1 -132.7 55.9 561.5 -270.0 -178.6 20034 -31.6 -136.7 57.2 569.0 -282.2 -175.8 20041 -33.5 -143.7 58.6 577.2 -285.8 -172.8 20042 -35.0 -151.7 60.0 586.6 -289.8 -170.2 20043 -36.3 -158.1 61.5 595.7 -294.5 -168.3 20044 -31.0 -162.4 63.0 605.5 -308.2 -166.8 20051 -33.1 -166.2 64.5 614.9 -314.1 -166.0 20052 -34.5 -169.2 66.0 624.0 -320.6 -165.7 20053 -35.3 -171.7 67.5 633.0 -327.7 -165.7 20054 -28.8 -173.3 69.0 642.9 -344.0 -165.8 20061 -29.9 -175.8 70.5 653.0 -351.7 -166.1 20062 -30.2 -178.7 72.0 663.2 -359.8 -166.4 20063 -30.1 -181.8 73.5 673.7 -368.4 -166.8 20064 -22.4 -184.5 75.0 685.5 -386.5 -167.0 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8627.9 5719.9 666.8 1675.8 3377.3 19982 8697.3 5820.0 689.3 1697.2 3433.5 19983 8816.5 5895.1 691.7 1716.7 3486.7 19984 8984.6 5989.1 725.1 1744.4 3519.6 19991 9092.7 6076.6 728.7 1773.1 3574.8 19992 9171.7 6195.6 749.9 1814.4 3631.3 19993 9316.5 6299.5 765.1 1841.3 3693.1 19994 9516.5 6414.5 779.9 1891.7 3742.9 20001 9649.5 6552.2 808.4 1926.9 3816.9 20002 9820.7 6638.7 799.3 1964.9 3874.5 20003 9874.6 6736.1 810.6 1988.9 3936.6 20004 9953.7 6808.0 797.2 2011.1 3999.7 20011 10028.0 6904.7 816.8 2031.5 4056.4 20012 10049.8 6959.8 820.3 2044.8 4094.7 20013 10097.7 6983.7 824.0 2044.3 4115.4 20014 10152.8 7099.9 882.6 2044.4 4172.9 20021 10313.2 7174.2 859.0 2085.1 4230.1 20022 10378.2 7254.6 856.9 2108.2 4289.5 20023 10506.1 7360.7 897.8 2116.9 4346.0 20024 10588.8 7425.4 873.9 2150.0 4401.5 20031 10697.6 7502.7 863.2 2196.6 4442.9 20032 10824.2 7598.1 879.2 2216.6 4502.3 20033 10957.9 7692.3 894.6 2236.4 4561.3 20034 11098.1 7789.9 910.4 2258.3 4621.2 20041 11242.1 7890.2 926.1 2282.2 4681.8 20042 11387.7 7992.4 941.6 2307.6 4743.2 20043 11534.0 8096.0 956.9 2333.9 4805.2 20044 11682.8 8202.0 972.6 2361.1 4868.3 20051 11832.0 8308.4 987.9 2388.7 4931.9 20052 11981.8 8415.3 1002.9 2416.5 4995.8 20053 12132.6 8522.5 1017.8 2444.6 5060.1 20054 12286.6 8631.8 1033.3 2473.0 5125.5 20061 12441.9 8741.7 1048.7 2501.6 5191.4 20062 12598.7 8852.4 1064.1 2530.5 5257.8 20063 12757.1 8964.0 1079.6 2559.5 5324.9 20064 12919.5 9078.3 1096.0 2589.1 5393.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1528.7 1422.0 1074.8 347.2 106.7 19982 1498.4 1457.5 1099.9 357.6 40.9 19983 1538.6 1469.1 1098.6 370.5 69.5 19984 1589.3 1513.9 1131.7 382.2 75.4 19991 1618.0 1543.3 1150.0 393.3 74.7 19992 1597.8 1570.1 1167.7 402.4 27.7 19993 1637.8 1591.0 1184.5 406.5 46.8 19994 1693.3 1604.4 1191.9 412.5 88.9 20001 1711.4 1664.6 1236.6 428.0 46.8 20002 1786.3 1697.1 1268.3 428.8 89.2 20003 1766.3 1705.2 1283.4 421.8 61.1 20004 1757.5 1700.4 1274.8 425.6 57.1 20011 1671.1 1698.3 1258.3 440.0 -27.2 20012 1597.1 1654.2 1210.0 444.2 -57.1 20013 1574.9 1635.5 1188.1 447.4 -60.6 20014 1500.7 1597.2 1149.8 447.4 -96.5 20021 1559.5 1589.4 1126.8 462.6 -29.9 20022 1589.4 1584.5 1115.8 468.7 4.9 20023 1597.3 1579.7 1109.8 469.9 17.6 20024 1628.1 1603.6 1117.1 486.5 24.5 20031 1626.9 1616.9 1107.1 509.8 10.0 20032 1638.3 1621.6 1104.9 516.7 16.7 20033 1654.5 1634.1 1109.3 524.8 20.4 20034 1679.6 1653.8 1120.5 533.4 25.7 20041 1705.7 1675.1 1134.3 540.8 30.5 20042 1731.9 1698.9 1151.5 547.4 33.1 20043 1756.7 1722.1 1168.8 553.2 34.6 20044 1781.7 1746.8 1187.1 559.7 35.0 20051 1806.0 1770.8 1205.8 565.0 35.2 20052 1829.8 1794.6 1225.0 569.7 35.2 20053 1853.6 1818.6 1244.5 574.1 35.0 20054 1879.4 1844.7 1264.9 579.9 34.6 20061 1905.7 1870.8 1285.8 585.0 34.9 20062 1932.6 1897.3 1307.2 590.1 35.3 20063 1959.9 1924.4 1329.1 595.2 35.6 20064 1989.5 1953.9 1351.8 602.0 35.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19981 -122.6 974.1 1096.7 1501.9 526.1 975.8 19982 -154.9 959.2 1114.1 1533.8 542.9 990.9 19983 -165.3 946.7 1112.0 1548.1 539.5 1008.6 19984 -164.1 979.7 1143.8 1570.3 548.4 1021.9 19991 -196.4 959.2 1155.6 1594.5 550.0 1044.5 19992 -241.8 970.2 1212.0 1620.1 556.1 1064.0 19993 -274.6 996.8 1271.4 1653.8 569.0 1084.8 19994 -286.7 1031.2 1317.9 1695.4 584.9 1110.5 20001 -330.6 1055.9 1386.5 1716.5 575.7 1140.8 20002 -353.1 1098.0 1451.1 1748.8 598.5 1150.3 20003 -384.9 1130.9 1515.8 1757.1 589.7 1167.4 20004 -393.2 1119.8 1513.0 1781.4 592.9 1188.5 20011 -372.8 1100.0 1472.8 1825.0 613.3 1211.7 20012 -365.6 1059.7 1425.3 1858.5 624.8 1233.7 20013 -312.6 1005.8 1318.4 1851.7 627.4 1224.3 20014 -344.5 971.1 1315.6 1896.7 646.9 1249.8 20021 -360.0 977.5 1337.5 1939.5 672.0 1267.5 20022 -425.6 1018.1 1443.7 1959.8 688.2 1271.6 20023 -432.9 1038.6 1471.5 1981.0 697.7 1283.3 20024 -476.0 1025.4 1501.4 2011.3 716.9 1294.4 20031 -485.7 1026.0 1511.7 2053.7 738.5 1315.2 20032 -488.0 1043.7 1531.7 2075.9 745.4 1330.5 20033 -488.8 1061.8 1550.6 2099.9 753.8 1346.1 20034 -495.9 1080.4 1576.4 2124.6 762.4 1362.2 20041 -503.7 1099.6 1603.3 2149.9 771.3 1378.7 20042 -512.6 1119.3 1632.0 2176.0 780.4 1395.6 20043 -521.3 1139.5 1660.8 2202.6 789.7 1412.9 20044 -530.6 1160.2 1690.8 2229.7 799.2 1430.5 20051 -539.6 1181.2 1720.8 2257.2 808.8 1448.4 20052 -548.3 1202.6 1750.8 2285.0 818.5 1466.5 20053 -556.8 1224.3 1781.1 2313.2 828.3 1484.8 20054 -566.3 1246.3 1812.6 2341.6 838.3 1503.4 20061 -575.9 1268.7 1844.6 2370.4 848.3 1522.1 20062 -585.6 1291.5 1877.1 2399.4 858.4 1541.0 20063 -595.6 1314.6 1910.2 2428.8 868.6 1560.2 20064 -606.9 1338.1 1945.1 2458.5 879.0 1579.5
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8396.3 5577.2 692.5 1656.3 3228.4 19982 8442.9 5662.5 719.7 1680.5 3262.3 19983 8528.5 5715.9 727.1 1693.6 3295.2 19984 8667.9 5790.2 767.3 1715.3 3307.6 19991 8733.2 5857.3 777.6 1736.1 3343.6 19992 8775.5 5940.6 804.2 1756.7 3379.7 19993 8886.9 6009.2 824.1 1767.7 3417.4 19994 9040.1 6084.8 844.2 1799.9 3440.7 20001 9097.4 6166.9 879.5 1809.7 3477.7 20002 9205.7 6211.1 871.3 1831.6 3508.2 20003 9218.7 6271.1 888.5 1840.9 3541.7 20004 9243.8 6300.2 876.5 1853.1 3570.6 20011 9229.9 6340.6 900.6 1863.7 3576.3 20012 9193.1 6364.0 912.4 1862.3 3589.3 20013 9186.4 6388.4 922.6 1868.3 3597.5 20014 9248.8 6493.6 992.0 1885.0 3616.6 20021 9363.2 6539.5 975.9 1921.4 3642.2 20022 9392.4 6567.8 980.7 1920.9 3666.2 20023 9485.6 6645.2 1032.4 1925.8 3687.0 20024 9518.2 6667.6 1010.6 1950.0 3707.0 20031 9556.0 6689.4 1007.7 1969.9 3711.8 20032 9620.3 6743.7 1021.5 1978.5 3743.7 20033 9687.8 6795.7 1034.5 1986.6 3774.7 20034 9759.4 6849.3 1047.6 1996.2 3805.4 20041 9831.2 6903.2 1060.3 2007.1 3835.8 20042 9901.2 6957.2 1072.4 2018.9 3865.9 20043 9969.1 7010.9 1084.1 2031.1 3895.8 20044 10036.9 7065.6 1095.9 2043.8 3925.9 20051 10103.9 7119.8 1107.2 2056.7 3955.9 20052 10170.2 7173.5 1118.1 2069.6 3985.8 20053 10236.5 7227.0 1128.7 2082.5 4015.8 20054 10304.7 7281.9 1139.9 2095.7 4046.3 20061 10373.5 7336.7 1150.8 2108.9 4076.9 20062 10442.7 7391.5 1161.7 2122.1 4107.7 20063 10512.3 7446.6 1172.5 2135.4 4138.7 20064 10584.2 7503.6 1184.2 2149.0 4170.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1545.6 1432.5 1099.5 333.0 113.1 19982 1514.8 1472.8 1132.3 340.5 42.0 19983 1557.9 1486.1 1136.6 349.5 71.8 19984 1612.8 1532.8 1175.4 357.4 80.0 19991 1641.6 1561.6 1197.5 364.1 80.0 19992 1620.0 1588.8 1220.4 368.4 31.2 19993 1660.1 1612.5 1243.3 369.2 47.6 19994 1716.3 1624.1 1252.4 371.7 92.2 20001 1721.5 1676.2 1297.1 379.1 45.3 20002 1796.8 1705.3 1329.1 376.2 91.5 20003 1771.0 1707.9 1340.7 367.2 63.1 20004 1757.0 1697.1 1329.9 367.2 59.9 20011 1659.0 1685.9 1311.4 374.5 -26.9 20012 1576.7 1635.0 1261.0 374.0 -58.3 20013 1554.2 1616.0 1241.7 374.3 -61.8 20014 1479.0 1577.4 1206.4 371.0 -98.4 20021 1543.1 1572.0 1188.4 383.6 -28.9 20022 1572.1 1567.2 1181.1 386.1 4.9 20023 1584.6 1565.8 1178.7 387.1 18.8 20024 1607.0 1581.2 1185.3 395.9 25.8 20031 1592.8 1580.0 1172.7 407.3 12.8 20032 1597.0 1575.7 1164.9 410.8 21.2 20033 1605.1 1579.2 1163.9 415.3 25.9 20034 1622.4 1589.9 1169.9 420.0 32.5 20041 1640.4 1602.0 1178.3 423.7 38.3 20042 1657.9 1616.6 1189.9 426.7 41.3 20043 1673.4 1630.4 1201.5 428.9 43.0 20044 1688.5 1645.3 1213.7 431.6 43.2 20051 1702.9 1659.6 1226.3 433.4 43.3 20052 1716.8 1673.8 1239.1 434.6 43.0 20053 1730.5 1688.0 1252.3 435.7 42.5 20054 1745.7 1703.8 1266.1 437.8 41.9 20061 1761.7 1719.6 1280.3 439.4 42.0 20062 1777.9 1735.7 1294.9 440.9 42.2 20063 1794.6 1752.2 1309.8 442.4 42.3 20064 1812.8 1770.5 1325.4 445.2 42.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19981 -180.8 1003.4 1184.2 1455.8 19982 -223.1 993.1 1216.2 1482.5 19983 -241.3 987.6 1228.9 1489.6 19984 -239.2 1025.6 1264.8 1504.5 19991 -283.2 1007.5 1290.7 1515.5 19992 -319.6 1018.1 1337.7 1526.3 19993 -339.6 1044.1 1383.7 1546.1 19994 -339.6 1075.6 1415.2 1572.8 20001 -368.8 1095.8 1464.6 1567.6 20002 -394.6 1133.9 1528.5 1585.8 20003 -413.1 1165.5 1578.6 1581.5 20004 -418.5 1153.7 1572.2 1592.7 20011 -404.5 1135.8 1540.3 1615.2 20012 -414.8 1098.8 1513.6 1637.4 20013 -419.0 1048.0 1467.0 1633.0 20014 -425.4 1021.8 1447.2 1674.3 20021 -446.5 1030.6 1477.1 1697.1 20022 -487.4 1065.5 1552.9 1703.4 20023 -488.0 1077.7 1565.7 1715.7 20024 -532.2 1061.6 1593.8 1735.4 20031 -508.3 1053.0 1561.3 1739.3 20032 -510.2 1065.9 1576.1 1747.0 20033 -510.6 1079.0 1589.6 1754.8 20034 -517.8 1092.2 1610.0 1762.7 20041 -525.8 1105.7 1631.4 1770.6 20042 -535.2 1119.2 1654.4 1778.5 20043 -544.5 1133.0 1677.4 1786.5 20044 -554.5 1146.9 1701.4 1794.5 20051 -564.2 1160.9 1725.1 1802.6 20052 -573.5 1175.2 1748.7 1810.7 20053 -582.7 1189.6 1772.3 1818.8 20054 -592.8 1204.2 1797.0 1827.1 20061 -603.0 1219.0 1821.9 1835.3 20062 -613.2 1233.9 1847.1 1843.6 20063 -623.6 1249.1 1872.7 1852.0 20064 -635.4 1264.4 1899.8 1860.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1869.7 825.3 187.5 111.5 745.4 20031 1892.8 832.2 189.8 111.3 759.5 20032 1920.4 844.1 195.6 112.7 768.0 20033 1951.0 857.9 200.9 114.1 778.1 20034 1975.4 865.0 205.5 115.6 789.3 20041 2009.0 881.0 209.8 117.0 801.1 20042 2042.7 897.4 213.9 118.6 812.9 20043 2076.4 913.7 218.0 120.1 824.5 20044 2101.7 921.4 222.5 121.7 836.0 20051 2135.5 937.7 227.1 123.3 847.4 20052 2169.3 954.0 231.9 124.8 858.6 20053 2203.2 970.3 236.7 126.4 869.8 20054 2228.6 977.7 241.8 128.1 881.0 20061 2263.3 994.5 246.9 129.7 892.3 20062 2298.3 1011.5 251.8 131.3 903.6 20063 2333.6 1028.9 256.7 133.0 915.1 20064 2360.3 1037.1 261.8 134.7 926.8
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19981 1688.4 444.2 727.9 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 726.3 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 729.7 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 738.5 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 739.1 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 743.3 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 743.9 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 756.9 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 758.5 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 774.6 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 781.3 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 803.5 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 816.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 832.2 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 849.3 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 870.9 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 916.9 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 927.6 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 934.1 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 948.5 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -247.7 20031 2146.4 628.4 972.1 951.3 20.8 312.9 193.5 40.9 -253.6 20032 2181.2 633.9 990.6 969.8 20.8 319.0 196.8 40.9 -260.8 20033 2216.4 640.9 1009.4 988.6 20.8 325.2 200.0 40.9 -265.4 20034 2252.3 648.2 1028.6 1007.8 20.8 331.5 203.1 40.9 -276.9 20041 2288.9 655.7 1048.2 1027.4 20.8 337.9 206.2 40.9 -279.9 20042 2326.0 663.4 1068.2 1047.4 20.8 344.5 209.1 40.9 -283.3 20043 2363.7 671.2 1088.5 1067.7 20.8 351.2 211.9 40.9 -287.4 20044 2402.2 679.3 1109.3 1088.5 20.8 358.0 214.7 40.9 -300.5 20051 2441.2 687.4 1130.4 1109.6 20.8 365.0 217.5 40.9 -305.7 20052 2480.8 695.6 1152.0 1131.2 20.8 372.1 220.3 40.9 -311.5 20053 2521.1 703.9 1173.9 1153.1 20.8 379.3 223.0 40.9 -317.9 20054 2562.1 712.3 1196.3 1175.5 20.8 386.7 225.9 40.9 -333.5 20061 2603.8 720.8 1219.2 1198.4 20.8 394.2 228.8 40.9 -340.5 20062 2646.2 729.4 1242.4 1221.6 20.8 401.8 231.7 40.9 -348.0 20063 2689.4 738.0 1266.2 1245.4 20.8 409.6 234.7 40.9 -355.8 20064 2733.5 746.8 1290.4 1269.6 20.8 417.6 237.8 40.9 -373.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1333.4 271.4 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1343.2 276.0 35.3 709.5 9.5 312.9 20032 1363.0 279.6 36.4 718.5 9.5 319.0 20033 1383.2 283.8 37.4 727.4 9.5 325.2 20034 1404.3 288.4 38.3 736.7 9.5 331.5 20041 1425.9 293.3 39.1 746.1 9.5 337.9 20042 1447.8 298.2 39.8 755.8 9.5 344.5 20043 1470.1 303.2 40.6 765.6 9.5 351.2 20044 1492.7 308.1 41.4 775.6 9.5 358.0 20051 1515.5 313.1 42.3 785.7 9.5 365.0 20052 1538.6 318.0 43.2 795.8 9.5 372.1 20053 1561.8 323.0 44.1 805.9 9.5 379.3 20054 1585.5 328.0 45.0 816.3 9.5 386.7 20061 1609.4 333.1 46.0 826.7 9.5 394.2 20062 1633.6 338.3 46.9 837.1 9.5 401.8 20063 1658.2 343.6 47.8 847.7 9.5 409.6 20064 1683.3 349.0 48.7 858.5 9.5 417.6
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 0.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 0.0 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 0.0 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 0.0 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 0.0 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 0.0 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 0.0 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 0.0 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 0.0 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 0.0 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 0.0 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 0.0 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 0.0 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 0.0 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 0.0 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 0.0 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 0.0 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 0.0 -50.6 20031 1409.6 1070.4 354.2 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -66.4 20032 1427.2 1082.7 359.5 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -64.3 20033 1444.0 1095.3 363.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -60.7 20034 1460.2 1108.2 366.9 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -55.8 20041 1476.6 1121.6 370.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -50.7 20042 1493.8 1135.4 373.4 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -45.9 20043 1511.9 1149.5 377.4 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -41.8 20044 1530.9 1163.9 382.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -38.1 20051 1550.6 1178.5 387.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -35.1 20052 1571.0 1193.3 392.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -32.5 20053 1592.0 1208.3 398.7 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -30.2 20054 1613.4 1223.4 405.0 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -28.0 20061 1635.2 1238.7 411.5 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -25.8 20062 1657.4 1254.2 418.2 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -23.8 20063 1679.9 1269.8 425.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -21.7 20064 1702.7 1285.6 432.1 -1.9 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -19.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19981 102.8 102.6 96.3 101.2 104.6 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.0 105.2 19983 103.4 103.1 95.1 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.4 94.5 101.7 106.4 19991 104.1 103.7 93.7 102.1 106.9 19992 104.5 104.3 93.2 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.2 108.1 19994 105.3 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.1 106.2 91.9 106.5 109.8 20002 106.7 106.9 91.7 107.3 110.4 20003 107.1 107.4 91.2 108.0 111.2 20004 107.7 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.0 20011 108.6 108.9 90.7 109.0 113.4 20012 109.3 109.4 89.9 109.8 114.1 20013 109.9 109.3 89.3 109.4 114.4 20014 109.8 109.3 89.0 108.5 115.4 20021 110.1 109.7 88.0 108.5 116.1 20022 110.5 110.5 87.4 109.8 117.0 20023 110.8 110.8 87.0 109.9 117.9 20024 111.2 111.4 86.5 110.3 118.7 20031 111.9 112.2 85.7 111.5 119.7 20032 112.5 112.7 86.1 112.0 120.3 20033 113.1 113.2 86.5 112.6 120.8 20034 113.7 113.7 86.9 113.1 121.4 20041 114.4 114.3 87.3 113.7 122.1 20042 115.0 114.9 87.8 114.3 122.7 20043 115.7 115.5 88.3 114.9 123.3 20044 116.4 116.1 88.7 115.5 124.0 20051 117.1 116.7 89.2 116.1 124.7 20052 117.8 117.3 89.7 116.8 125.3 20053 118.5 117.9 90.2 117.4 126.0 20054 119.2 118.5 90.7 118.0 126.7 20061 119.9 119.2 91.1 118.6 127.3 20062 120.6 119.8 91.6 119.2 128.0 20063 121.4 120.4 92.1 119.9 128.7 20064 122.1 121.0 92.6 120.5 129.3
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19981 99.3 97.8 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.0 97.1 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.5 19983 98.9 96.7 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.8 96.3 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.4 19991 98.8 96.0 108.0 95.2 89.5 105.2 19992 98.8 95.7 109.2 95.3 90.6 106.1 19993 98.7 95.3 110.1 95.5 91.9 107.0 19994 98.8 95.2 111.0 95.9 93.1 107.8 20001 99.3 95.3 112.9 96.4 94.7 109.5 20002 99.5 95.4 114.0 96.8 94.9 110.3 20003 99.8 95.7 114.9 97.0 96.0 111.1 20004 100.2 95.9 115.9 97.1 96.2 111.8 20011 100.7 96.0 117.5 96.8 95.6 113.0 20012 101.2 96.0 118.8 96.4 94.2 113.5 20013 101.2 95.7 119.5 96.0 89.9 113.4 20014 101.3 95.3 120.6 95.0 90.9 113.3 20021 101.1 94.8 120.6 94.8 90.5 114.3 20022 101.1 94.5 121.4 95.6 93.0 115.1 20023 100.9 94.2 121.4 96.4 94.0 115.5 20024 101.4 94.2 122.9 96.6 94.2 115.9 20031 102.3 94.4 125.2 97.4 96.8 118.1 20032 102.9 94.9 125.8 97.9 97.2 118.8 20033 103.5 95.3 126.4 98.4 97.5 119.7 20034 104.0 95.8 127.0 98.9 97.9 120.5 20041 104.6 96.3 127.6 99.5 98.3 121.4 20042 105.1 96.8 128.3 100.0 98.6 122.4 20043 105.6 97.3 129.0 100.6 99.0 123.3 20044 106.2 97.8 129.7 101.2 99.4 124.3 20051 106.7 98.3 130.4 101.7 99.7 125.2 20052 107.2 98.9 131.1 102.3 100.1 126.2 20053 107.7 99.4 131.8 102.9 100.5 127.2 20054 108.3 99.9 132.5 103.5 100.9 128.2 20061 108.8 100.4 133.2 104.1 101.2 129.2 20062 109.3 101.0 133.8 104.7 101.6 130.1 20063 109.8 101.5 134.5 105.2 102.0 131.1 20064 110.4 102.0 135.2 105.8 102.4 132.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment