US Forecast: July 31, 2003
Forecast Period

2003:3--2006:4 (14 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 31, 2003.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2003:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: July 31, 2003, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2003). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2003).

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2003:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2003:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.3       
COG           3.0                  3.8       
JG            1.0                 -1.1       
TRGS          8.0                  7.7       
TRSH          7.0                  6.2       
COS           3.0                  5.1       
JS            1.0                  1.7       
EX            3.0/5.0/6.0          4.9
PIM           1.5                 -0.2

3.0/5.0/6.0 means 3.0 for 2003:3 and 2003:4, 5.0 for 2004:1-2004:4, 
  and 6.0 thereafter.

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

The tax cut package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in May 2001 has been incorporated into the forecast. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimates of the tax reductions by fiscal year, and these estimates were used as a guide in choosing values for D1G, the personal income tax parameter in the model. D1G was adjusted in the manner discussed in Section 5.2 of The US Model Workbook, experiment 5.5. You can examine the values for D1G to see what was done.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve" in the left menu under "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model, including, as noted above, an exogenous variable like D1G.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 4.1, 3.6, 3.5, and 3.4 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate is predicted to fall to 5.6 percent by the middle of 2004.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to rise to 2.5 percent by the middle of 2004.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, 2001:3, and 2001:4 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.3 percent by the middle of 2004.

Other Variables: The federal government is now running a large budget deficit, and the model is predicting that the deficit will continue to be large throughout the forecast period (see the predicted values for SGP). By the end of 2004 the deficit is about $400 billion (remember this is the deficit as measured in the NIPA accounts). This $400 billion is smaller than the federal government is projecting the deficit to be, and so the model is more optimistic about the government's budget than is the government.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period (between $595.0 and $744.9 billion).

Possible Experiments to Run

The current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending (if you think that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed for the forecast, perhaps because of increased defense spending). You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate (if you think that the model has overpredicted the bill rate). You can also lower the tax rate D1G if you think that the values used for the forecast are too high.

On the contractionary side, if you think there will be an oil price shock you can increase PIM. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. You may also want to use lower values for exports, EX, than the forecast uses if you think that the values used for the forecast are too high.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index increased about 120 points in the second quarter of 2003, which is a gain in household wealth of about $1.2 trillion. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1000. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 800, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: July 31, 2003
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19981 8396.3 6.1 3228.4 4.5 1656.3 5.5 692.5 7.0 19982 8442.9 2.2 3262.3 4.3 1680.5 6.0 719.7 16.7 19983 8528.5 4.1 3295.2 4.1 1693.6 3.2 727.1 4.2 19984 8667.9 6.7 3307.6 1.5 1715.3 5.2 767.3 24.0 19991 8733.2 3.0 3343.6 4.4 1736.1 4.9 777.6 5.5 19992 8775.5 2.0 3379.7 4.4 1756.7 4.8 804.2 14.4 19993 8886.9 5.2 3417.4 4.5 1767.7 2.5 824.1 10.3 19994 9040.1 7.1 3440.7 2.8 1799.9 7.5 844.2 10.1 20001 9097.4 2.6 3477.7 4.4 1809.7 2.2 879.5 17.8 20002 9205.7 4.8 3508.2 3.6 1831.6 4.9 871.3 -3.7 20003 9218.7 0.6 3541.7 3.9 1840.9 2.0 888.5 8.1 20004 9243.8 1.1 3570.6 3.3 1853.1 2.7 876.5 -5.3 20011 9229.9 -0.6 3576.3 0.6 1863.7 2.3 900.6 11.5 20012 9193.1 -1.6 3589.3 1.5 1862.3 -0.3 912.4 5.3 20013 9186.4 -0.3 3597.5 0.9 1868.3 1.3 922.6 4.5 20014 9248.8 2.7 3616.6 2.1 1885.0 3.6 992.0 33.7 20021 9363.2 5.0 3642.2 2.9 1921.4 8.0 975.9 -6.3 20022 9392.4 1.3 3666.2 2.7 1920.9 -0.1 980.7 2.0 20023 9485.6 4.0 3687.0 2.3 1925.8 1.0 1032.4 22.8 20024 9518.2 1.4 3707.0 2.2 1950.0 5.1 1010.6 -8.2 20031 9552.0 1.4 3714.9 0.9 1978.9 6.1 1005.4 -2.0 20032 9608.1 2.4 3729.0 1.5 1979.2 0.1 1057.9 22.6 20033 9705.0 4.1 3763.2 3.7 1991.2 2.4 1073.7 6.1 20034 9791.2 3.6 3797.0 3.6 2006.1 3.0 1090.1 6.2 20041 9875.4 3.5 3829.9 3.5 2021.6 3.1 1105.8 5.9 20042 9957.7 3.4 3862.2 3.4 2036.9 3.1 1120.8 5.5 20043 10031.8 3.0 3894.1 3.3 2051.9 3.0 1135.0 5.2 20044 10102.7 2.9 3926.0 3.3 2066.7 2.9 1149.1 5.1 20051 10173.4 2.8 3957.4 3.2 2081.0 2.8 1162.3 4.7 20052 10243.3 2.8 3988.6 3.2 2095.0 2.7 1174.8 4.4 20053 10312.8 2.7 4019.6 3.1 2108.6 2.6 1186.8 4.1 20054 10383.8 2.8 4050.9 3.2 2122.1 2.6 1199.1 4.2 20061 10455.3 2.8 4082.3 3.1 2135.6 2.6 1211.2 4.1 20062 10527.0 2.8 4113.7 3.1 2148.9 2.5 1223.0 4.0 20063 10599.1 2.8 4145.2 3.1 2162.3 2.5 1234.8 3.9 20064 10673.4 2.8 4177.4 3.1 2175.9 2.5 1247.5 4.2
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19981 294.5 16.7 945.7 23.9 113.1 1184.2 15.9 19982 301.1 9.3 975.7 13.3 42.0 1216.2 11.3 19983 309.1 11.0 979.4 1.5 71.8 1228.9 4.2 19984 316.1 9.3 1016.1 15.9 80.0 1264.8 12.2 19991 309.7 -7.8 1039.8 9.7 80.0 1290.7 8.4 19992 313.4 4.8 1061.7 8.7 31.2 1337.7 15.4 19993 314.1 0.9 1083.6 8.5 47.6 1383.7 14.5 19994 316.2 2.7 1091.8 3.0 92.2 1415.2 9.4 20001 320.0 4.9 1133.8 16.3 45.3 1464.6 14.7 20002 317.5 -3.0 1164.2 11.1 91.5 1528.5 18.6 20003 309.9 -9.2 1174.7 3.7 63.1 1578.6 13.8 20004 309.9 0.0 1163.9 -3.6 59.9 1572.2 -1.6 20011 321.1 15.2 1143.1 -7.0 -26.9 1540.3 -7.9 20012 320.6 -0.5 1094.8 -15.9 -58.3 1513.6 -6.8 20013 320.9 0.3 1075.7 -6.8 -61.8 1467.0 -11.8 20014 318.1 -3.5 1043.4 -11.5 -98.4 1447.2 -5.3 20021 328.9 14.3 1026.5 -6.3 -28.9 1477.1 8.5 20022 331.0 2.6 1020.0 -2.5 4.9 1552.9 22.2 20023 331.9 1.0 1018.5 -0.6 18.8 1565.7 3.3 20024 339.4 9.4 1025.4 2.7 25.8 1593.8 7.4 20031 347.6 10.0 1012.3 -5.0 4.8 1568.4 -6.2 20032 352.7 6.1 1029.2 6.9 -17.9 1603.3 9.2 20033 358.6 6.9 1032.9 1.5 14.0 1626.1 5.8 20034 365.7 8.1 1042.4 3.7 30.5 1654.2 7.1 20041 371.3 6.3 1054.5 4.7 39.8 1682.7 7.1 20042 375.5 4.6 1070.6 6.2 47.0 1712.4 7.3 20043 378.4 3.2 1084.1 5.1 49.9 1740.6 6.7 20044 381.3 3.1 1097.5 5.0 49.5 1768.6 6.6 20051 382.9 1.7 1111.0 5.0 48.0 1795.7 6.3 20052 383.8 0.9 1124.3 4.9 46.9 1821.8 6.0 20053 384.2 0.4 1137.6 4.8 46.0 1847.3 5.7 20054 385.5 1.4 1151.3 4.9 45.0 1873.6 5.8 20061 386.2 0.8 1165.2 4.9 44.8 1899.7 5.7 20062 386.9 0.7 1179.3 4.9 44.7 1925.9 5.6 20063 387.6 0.8 1193.6 4.9 44.6 1952.3 5.6 20064 389.6 2.1 1208.4 5.0 44.2 1980.2 5.8
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19981 1.1 1.0 7.9 6.8 19982 1.0 1.1 7.1 5.9 19983 1.4 1.6 5.9 4.3 19984 1.1 0.1 4.1 4.0 19991 1.8 2.6 9.4 6.6 19992 1.5 2.0 1.4 -0.6 19993 1.2 1.2 3.0 1.8 19994 1.7 1.7 6.1 4.3 20001 3.1 2.9 12.4 9.3 20002 2.3 2.4 5.4 2.9 20003 1.6 1.8 8.4 6.5 20004 2.1 2.1 4.5 2.4 20011 3.6 3.3 3.3 0.0 20012 2.5 2.3 1.6 -0.7 20013 2.2 2.4 2.2 -0.1 20014 -0.5 -0.4 1.7 2.1 20021 1.4 0.7 3.7 2.9 20022 1.3 1.8 2.7 0.9 20023 1.0 0.1 1.6 1.5 20024 1.8 2.4 0.6 -1.8 20031 2.5 1.8 4.3 2.4 20032 0.8 0.3 6.0 5.7 20033 1.9 1.7 3.4 1.6 20034 2.0 1.9 3.5 1.6 20041 2.2 2.1 3.7 1.6 20042 2.3 2.2 3.9 1.6 20043 2.5 2.4 4.0 1.6 20044 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20051 2.5 2.5 4.1 1.6 20052 2.5 2.5 4.1 1.6 20053 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20054 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20061 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20062 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.7 20063 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.7 20064 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.8 4.4 73.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1275.7 4.2 71.4 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1287.9 3.9 74.0 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1310.6 7.2 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1318.3 2.4 72.2 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1330.0 3.6 73.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1345.2 4.6 72.1 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.0 18.3 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1381.4 -6.0 64.4 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1385.1 1.1 65.7 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1383.2 -0.6 61.6 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.3 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1409.5 6.4 65.0 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1437.1 8.1 66.5 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.6 14.2 71.5 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.1 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1535.9 -2.4 68.5 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1562.8 7.2 69.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1593.8 8.2 70.9 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1610.0 4.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1667.3 15.0 76.4 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1712.5 11.3 78.5 20033 1.3 5.1 5.3 1734.7 5.3 78.7 20034 1.6 4.9 5.3 1772.9 9.1 80.3 20041 1.9 4.9 5.3 1799.3 6.1 80.9 20042 2.1 4.9 5.3 1822.0 5.1 81.3 20043 2.3 4.8 5.4 1839.6 3.9 81.1 20044 2.5 4.8 5.4 1862.4 5.1 81.5 20051 2.6 4.8 5.5 1883.4 4.6 81.7 20052 2.7 4.9 5.5 1904.9 4.6 82.0 20053 2.7 4.9 5.6 1925.0 4.3 82.1 20054 2.8 4.9 5.6 1947.0 4.7 82.4 20061 2.8 4.9 5.7 1969.0 4.6 82.7 20062 2.8 4.9 5.7 1991.7 4.7 83.1 20063 2.9 4.9 5.7 2014.3 4.6 83.4 20064 2.9 4.9 5.8 2037.8 4.7 83.8
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19981 4.6 0.8 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.0 6.5 19982 4.4 0.5 -0.6 2.5 2.8 1.6 6.2 19983 4.5 0.3 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.2 6.3 19984 4.4 1.0 1.4 4.0 2.0 2.4 6.2 19991 4.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.0 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.5 0.1 3.8 2.5 0.9 6.0 19993 4.3 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.3 1.3 6.0 19994 4.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 5.8 20001 4.0 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 2.5 0.8 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.3 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.9 5.7 20003 4.0 0.3 -2.0 0.6 0.6 -0.7 5.8 20004 3.9 0.9 0.8 3.0 0.7 1.9 5.7 20011 4.2 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.0 1.3 6.0 20012 4.4 -0.2 -2.0 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 6.4 20013 4.8 0.0 -0.4 2.8 -1.3 -1.0 7.0 20014 5.6 0.5 0.4 4.8 -2.8 -1.4 8.1 20021 5.6 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -2.6 -0.2 8.1 20022 5.9 0.5 0.3 4.9 -0.3 0.7 8.5 20023 5.8 -0.2 -0.7 4.4 0.9 1.4 8.4 20024 5.9 -1.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 -0.4 8.6 20031 5.8 -0.9 0.1 0.9 -1.4 0.6 8.4 20032 6.2 2.3 1.7 3.1 -0.7 0.6 9.0 20033 6.2 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.5 9.1 20034 6.0 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 8.9 20041 5.9 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.4 8.7 20042 5.7 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.4 8.5 20043 5.6 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 8.3 20044 5.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 8.3 20051 5.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 8.3 20052 5.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7 8.3 20053 5.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 8.4 20054 5.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 8.5 20061 5.6 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 8.6 20062 5.6 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 8.7 20063 5.7 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 8.8 20064 5.7 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 8.9
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19981 6440.5 565.0 -31.3 5.1 5.2 155.6 19.6 36.8 19982 638.6 566.4 1.0 5.0 0.8 192.5 33.0 32.0 19983 -6673.1 568.4 1.4 5.0 2.5 222.8 65.7 35.7 19984 8883.9 550.8 -11.8 4.4 4.1 227.9 57.1 58.4 19991 2273.0 569.4 14.2 4.1 2.2 220.9 88.8 48.3 19992 3849.7 582.6 9.6 2.9 -0.6 264.3 113.0 31.1 19993 -3421.3 570.1 -8.3 2.2 2.6 304.2 117.4 33.7 19994 13467.4 599.4 22.2 2.0 5.0 314.7 128.8 39.6 20001 3032.7 595.3 -2.7 2.7 -0.1 356.9 223.4 32.4 20002 -3259.1 607.7 8.6 3.0 6.9 376.9 197.2 20.2 20003 -401.3 576.0 -19.3 3.0 0.4 419.2 213.1 19.1 20004 -5327.2 546.5 -19.0 3.0 1.4 429.8 193.8 -0.1 20011 -7925.6 498.8 -30.6 2.5 -2.6 409.6 173.8 -16.6 20012 2859.8 528.4 25.9 2.0 0.4 382.4 144.6 -32.4 20013 -8956.0 491.7 -25.0 4.1 2.4 350.8 -51.7 -46.1 20014 5817.4 399.0 -56.6 0.9 3.7 363.9 21.3 -30.2 20021 114.8 421.5 24.5 3.6 6.7 421.6 -145.8 -55.7 20022 -6946.1 440.8 19.6 4.2 1.5 497.2 -195.7 -44.9 20023 -7843.5 452.4 10.9 3.6 5.0 495.5 -210.5 -54.8 20024 3151.2 478.3 24.9 3.7 -0.6 541.2 -256.5 -52.4 20031 -1203.7 502.1 21.4 3.7 1.3 559.9 -275.4 -67.1 20032 4800.0 477.5 -18.2 3.4 4.6 579.0 -368.0 -33.0 20033 1766.1 557.3 85.5 3.3 2.5 595.0 -359.3 -25.4 20034 1354.1 571.8 10.8 3.4 1.2 615.9 -371.0 -17.2 20041 1246.7 582.6 7.8 3.4 0.8 631.5 -374.6 -8.2 20042 1216.9 592.7 7.1 3.4 0.8 647.8 -378.1 0.4 20043 1197.1 599.9 5.0 3.4 0.7 662.2 -383.9 7.6 20044 1198.1 608.9 6.1 3.4 0.8 676.1 -399.4 13.6 20051 1195.5 620.8 8.1 3.4 1.0 686.2 -406.8 18.7 20052 1206.6 634.7 9.2 3.4 1.2 695.1 -414.8 23.1 20053 1224.8 649.9 10.0 3.3 1.3 703.0 -423.6 26.8 20054 1246.9 667.3 11.1 3.4 1.4 711.5 -441.8 30.5 20061 1260.1 685.1 11.1 3.4 1.5 719.7 -451.5 33.9 20062 1276.8 703.1 10.9 3.4 1.6 727.7 -461.8 37.2 20063 1296.3 721.2 10.7 3.4 1.6 735.7 -472.6 40.5 20064 1318.8 740.3 11.0 3.5 1.7 744.9 -493.1 44.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19981 -20.9 2.1 0.5 719.8 5.8 -10.6 19982 28.9 10.4 -4.0 719.2 -0.3 -4.3 19983 -9.2 11.5 -2.2 720.3 0.6 -4.8 19984 11.5 7.2 16.3 719.3 -0.6 -0.2 19991 -7.6 18.5 -6.9 730.8 6.6 -3.9 19992 9.1 5.9 4.3 733.4 1.4 4.9 19993 16.9 7.3 10.6 735.3 1.0 5.8 19994 23.6 11.2 12.6 738.2 1.6 5.5 20001 -30.0 10.9 7.7 749.9 6.5 6.8 20002 25.0 -5.1 14.6 765.1 8.4 1.1 20003 -8.0 2.8 11.6 769.7 2.4 4.7 20004 6.1 5.4 -4.0 779.0 4.9 0.9 20011 15.9 7.6 -6.1 809.9 16.8 -2.5 20012 12.0 8.9 -12.4 824.5 7.4 -5.9 20013 1.7 -13.8 -17.2 840.4 7.9 -17.0 20014 28.4 20.1 -9.6 855.6 7.4 4.7 20021 11.7 9.5 3.5 894.1 19.3 -1.6 20022 12.7 -6.4 14.2 917.0 10.6 11.1 20023 5.1 3.3 4.7 924.4 3.3 4.4 20024 18.2 1.3 -5.8 934.0 4.2 0.9 20031 -2.8 0.0 -1.3 950.7 7.3 11.7 20032 46.3 -3.3 -3.1 970.1 8.4 -3.9 20033 3.0 3.0 3.0 988.9 8.0 1.5 20034 3.0 3.0 3.0 1008.2 8.0 1.5 20041 3.0 3.0 5.0 1027.7 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 5.0 1047.7 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 5.0 1068.1 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 5.0 1088.8 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 6.0 1110.0 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 6.0 1131.5 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 6.0 1153.5 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 6.0 1175.9 8.0 1.5 20061 3.0 3.0 6.0 1198.8 8.0 1.5 20062 3.0 3.0 6.0 1222.0 8.0 1.5 20063 3.0 3.0 6.0 1245.8 8.0 1.5 20064 3.0 3.0 6.0 1270.0 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1860.9 820.5 187.5 111.5 741.4 20031 1869.8 803.3 200.7 111.2 754.6 20032 1872.8 808.7 194.4 111.6 758.1 20033 1918.8 822.4 214.9 113.1 768.4 20034 1944.8 830.6 218.7 114.6 781.0 20041 1980.1 848.1 221.5 116.2 794.4 20042 2016.1 866.2 224.0 117.8 808.0 20043 2050.8 884.1 225.9 119.5 821.3 20044 2076.4 892.9 228.2 121.2 834.1 20051 2110.9 910.2 231.3 122.8 846.6 20052 2145.4 927.3 234.9 124.5 858.8 20053 2180.1 944.4 238.8 126.1 870.7 20054 2206.2 952.4 243.3 127.8 882.7 20061 2241.7 969.7 247.9 129.5 894.6 20062 2277.4 987.2 252.5 131.2 906.5 20063 2313.5 1005.0 257.2 132.9 918.5 20064 2340.9 1013.5 262.1 134.6 930.7
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19981 1688.4 444.2 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -256.5 20031 2145.2 626.6 950.7 20.1 313.0 192.7 43.5 -275.4 20032 2240.8 662.9 970.1 15.8 336.6 195.0 59.0 -368.0 20033 2278.0 671.2 988.9 15.8 343.1 199.9 59.0 -359.3 20034 2315.9 678.5 1008.2 15.8 349.8 204.7 59.0 -371.0 20041 2354.7 686.1 1027.7 15.8 356.6 209.4 59.0 -374.6 20042 2394.3 694.1 1047.7 15.8 363.5 214.1 59.0 -378.1 20043 2434.6 702.5 1068.1 15.8 370.6 218.7 59.0 -383.9 20044 2475.8 711.0 1088.8 15.8 377.8 223.3 59.0 -399.4 20051 2517.6 719.8 1110.0 15.8 385.1 228.0 59.0 -406.8 20052 2560.3 728.6 1131.5 15.8 392.6 232.7 59.0 -414.8 20053 2603.7 737.6 1153.5 15.8 400.2 237.6 59.0 -423.6 20054 2648.0 746.6 1175.9 15.8 408.0 242.7 59.0 -441.8 20061 2693.2 755.7 1198.8 15.8 415.9 247.9 59.0 -451.5 20062 2739.2 764.9 1222.0 15.8 424.0 253.4 59.0 -461.8 20063 2786.1 774.2 1245.8 15.8 432.3 259.0 59.0 -472.6 20064 2834.0 783.6 1270.0 15.8 440.7 264.9 59.0 -493.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1331.6 269.6 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1344.0 273.9 37.2 710.4 9.5 313.0 20032 1378.0 276.8 36.0 719.0 9.6 336.6 20033 1402.1 281.1 39.8 728.4 9.6 343.1 20034 1424.7 286.3 40.5 738.4 9.6 349.8 20041 1447.9 291.9 41.0 748.7 9.6 356.6 20042 1471.6 297.7 41.5 759.2 9.6 363.5 20043 1495.3 303.4 41.9 769.8 9.6 370.6 20044 1519.2 309.0 42.3 780.6 9.6 377.8 20051 1543.4 314.5 42.9 791.3 9.6 385.1 20052 1567.7 320.0 43.5 802.0 9.6 392.6 20053 1592.2 325.4 44.3 812.7 9.6 400.2 20054 1617.2 330.9 45.1 823.5 9.6 408.0 20061 1642.3 336.5 45.9 834.3 9.6 415.9 20062 1667.7 342.1 46.8 845.2 9.6 424.0 20063 1693.4 347.8 47.7 856.1 9.6 432.3 20064 1719.7 353.6 48.6 867.3 9.6 440.7
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 -52.4 20031 1411.1 1071.8 354.2 -1.8 0.4 -12.7 -67.1 20032 1411.0 1067.4 358.4 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 -33.0 20033 1427.5 1079.0 363.4 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 -25.4 20034 1441.9 1091.1 365.6 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 -17.2 20041 1456.1 1104.0 366.9 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 -8.2 20042 1471.2 1117.5 368.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.4 20043 1487.7 1131.5 371.0 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 7.6 20044 1505.6 1145.9 374.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 13.6 20051 1524.7 1160.7 378.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 18.7 20052 1544.7 1175.6 383.9 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 23.1 20053 1565.4 1190.7 389.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 26.8 20054 1586.7 1206.0 395.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 30.5 20061 1608.4 1221.5 401.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 33.9 20062 1630.5 1237.0 408.3 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 37.2 20063 1653.0 1252.8 415.0 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 40.5 20064 1675.7 1268.7 421.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 44.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19981 78.0 -189.3 -16.8 155.6 21.8 -49.3 19982 76.0 -215.1 -21.4 192.5 25.3 -57.3 19983 62.6 -270.0 -18.9 222.8 62.1 -58.6 19984 22.2 -250.8 -15.7 227.9 54.3 -38.0 19991 5.7 -276.3 16.7 220.9 89.4 -56.4 19992 -73.6 -239.9 17.1 264.3 104.0 -71.8 19993 -121.2 -252.1 28.4 304.2 110.2 -69.5 19994 -129.3 -263.1 29.0 314.7 118.0 -69.3 20001 -95.4 -422.0 22.8 356.9 220.5 -82.9 20002 -64.8 -429.6 11.4 376.9 192.1 -86.0 20003 -54.7 -496.1 6.3 419.2 211.9 -86.6 20004 -57.2 -457.5 1.6 429.8 191.6 -108.3 20011 -108.4 -355.6 15.3 409.6 171.4 -132.2 20012 -133.7 -241.0 10.5 382.4 135.8 -154.0 20013 27.3 -180.2 -2.9 350.8 -53.6 -141.4 20014 -213.1 -55.2 38.0 363.9 13.7 -147.3 20021 -13.8 -121.9 46.8 421.6 -153.1 -179.6 20022 30.4 -216.6 51.8 497.2 -204.2 -158.6 20023 -12.4 -155.4 53.4 495.5 -210.9 -170.2 20024 -16.9 -146.3 48.9 541.2 -259.3 -167.6 20031 -21.4 -131.6 55.6 559.9 -281.4 -181.1 20032 -43.9 -70.3 54.4 579.0 -379.7 -139.6 20033 -54.9 -90.2 55.5 595.0 -371.5 -133.9 20034 -53.4 -107.6 56.7 615.9 -384.0 -127.7 20041 -56.9 -123.8 58.1 631.5 -388.1 -120.7 20042 -58.2 -142.6 59.5 647.8 -392.4 -114.2 20043 -59.3 -156.1 61.1 662.2 -398.8 -109.1 20044 -53.9 -164.7 62.7 676.1 -415.1 -105.1 20051 -55.4 -169.9 64.3 686.2 -423.1 -102.1 20052 -55.3 -173.8 65.9 695.1 -431.9 -100.0 20053 -54.2 -176.5 67.5 703.0 -441.4 -98.4 20054 -45.5 -177.8 69.2 711.5 -460.4 -97.0 20061 -44.1 -179.8 70.8 719.7 -470.8 -95.8 20062 -41.7 -181.8 72.4 727.7 -481.8 -94.8 20063 -38.7 -183.7 74.0 735.7 -493.4 -93.9 20064 -28.2 -184.9 75.6 744.9 -514.8 -92.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8627.9 5719.9 666.8 1675.8 3377.3 19982 8697.3 5820.0 689.3 1697.2 3433.5 19983 8816.5 5895.1 691.7 1716.7 3486.7 19984 8984.6 5989.1 725.1 1744.4 3519.6 19991 9092.7 6076.6 728.7 1773.1 3574.8 19992 9171.7 6195.6 749.9 1814.4 3631.3 19993 9316.5 6299.5 765.1 1841.3 3693.1 19994 9516.5 6414.5 779.9 1891.7 3742.9 20001 9649.5 6552.2 808.4 1926.9 3816.9 20002 9820.7 6638.7 799.3 1964.9 3874.5 20003 9874.6 6736.1 810.6 1988.9 3936.6 20004 9953.7 6808.0 797.2 2011.1 3999.7 20011 10028.0 6904.7 816.8 2031.5 4056.4 20012 10049.8 6959.8 820.3 2044.8 4094.7 20013 10097.7 6983.7 824.0 2044.3 4115.4 20014 10152.8 7099.9 882.6 2044.4 4172.9 20021 10313.2 7174.2 859.0 2085.1 4230.1 20022 10378.2 7254.6 856.9 2108.2 4289.5 20023 10506.1 7360.7 897.8 2116.9 4346.0 20024 10588.8 7425.4 873.9 2150.0 4401.5 20031 10692.9 7512.6 861.2 2206.8 4444.6 20032 10777.3 7591.2 897.5 2196.4 4497.3 20033 10937.8 7690.6 914.7 2218.8 4557.2 20034 11090.7 7796.5 932.7 2245.3 4618.5 20041 11246.7 7905.3 950.7 2273.5 4681.0 20042 11405.8 8016.0 968.6 2302.6 4744.8 20043 11560.6 8127.9 986.1 2332.0 4809.7 20044 11715.1 8241.5 1003.9 2361.8 4875.8 20051 11871.4 8354.9 1021.1 2391.4 4942.3 20052 12028.4 8467.8 1037.8 2420.9 5009.1 20053 12186.1 8580.5 1054.2 2450.2 5076.1 20054 12346.7 8694.7 1071.1 2479.6 5144.0 20061 12508.5 8808.9 1087.8 2509.0 5212.2 20062 12671.5 8923.5 1104.4 2538.4 5280.7 20063 12835.9 9038.8 1121.1 2567.9 5349.9 20064 13004.1 9156.6 1138.6 2597.8 5420.2
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1528.7 1422.0 1074.8 347.2 106.7 19982 1498.4 1457.5 1099.9 357.6 40.9 19983 1538.6 1469.1 1098.6 370.5 69.5 19984 1589.3 1513.9 1131.7 382.2 75.4 19991 1618.0 1543.3 1150.0 393.3 74.7 19992 1597.8 1570.1 1167.7 402.4 27.7 19993 1637.8 1591.0 1184.5 406.5 46.8 19994 1693.3 1604.4 1191.9 412.5 88.9 20001 1711.4 1664.6 1236.6 428.0 46.8 20002 1786.3 1697.1 1268.3 428.8 89.2 20003 1766.3 1705.2 1283.4 421.8 61.1 20004 1757.5 1700.4 1274.8 425.6 57.1 20011 1671.1 1698.3 1258.3 440.0 -27.2 20012 1597.1 1654.2 1210.0 444.2 -57.1 20013 1574.9 1635.5 1188.1 447.4 -60.6 20014 1500.7 1597.2 1149.8 447.4 -96.5 20021 1559.5 1589.4 1126.8 462.6 -29.9 20022 1589.4 1584.5 1115.8 468.7 4.9 20023 1597.3 1579.7 1109.8 469.9 17.6 20024 1628.1 1603.6 1117.1 486.5 24.5 20031 1615.5 1610.7 1103.4 507.3 4.8 20032 1611.4 1630.6 1117.3 513.3 -19.2 20033 1663.9 1648.8 1125.4 523.4 15.1 20034 1707.5 1674.5 1139.4 535.1 33.0 20041 1744.9 1701.7 1156.4 545.3 43.2 20042 1783.1 1731.7 1177.7 554.0 51.4 20043 1813.1 1758.3 1196.9 561.3 54.8 20044 1839.9 1785.2 1216.5 568.7 54.7 20051 1864.3 1810.9 1236.4 574.5 53.3 20052 1888.2 1835.8 1256.3 579.4 52.4 20053 1911.9 1860.2 1276.4 583.8 51.7 20054 1937.1 1886.3 1296.9 589.4 50.8 20061 1962.9 1912.1 1317.8 594.2 50.8 20062 1989.0 1938.0 1339.1 598.9 51.0 20063 2015.6 1964.4 1360.7 603.8 51.1 20064 2044.2 1993.2 1382.9 610.3 51.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19981 -122.6 974.1 1096.7 1501.9 526.1 975.8 19982 -154.9 959.2 1114.1 1533.8 542.9 990.9 19983 -165.3 946.7 1112.0 1548.1 539.5 1008.6 19984 -164.1 979.7 1143.8 1570.3 548.4 1021.9 19991 -196.4 959.2 1155.6 1594.5 550.0 1044.5 19992 -241.8 970.2 1212.0 1620.1 556.1 1064.0 19993 -274.6 996.8 1271.4 1653.8 569.0 1084.8 19994 -286.7 1031.2 1317.9 1695.4 584.9 1110.5 20001 -330.6 1055.9 1386.5 1716.5 575.7 1140.8 20002 -353.1 1098.0 1451.1 1748.8 598.5 1150.3 20003 -384.9 1130.9 1515.8 1757.1 589.7 1167.4 20004 -393.2 1119.8 1513.0 1781.4 592.9 1188.5 20011 -372.8 1100.0 1472.8 1825.0 613.3 1211.7 20012 -365.6 1059.7 1425.3 1858.5 624.8 1233.7 20013 -312.6 1005.8 1318.4 1851.7 627.4 1224.3 20014 -344.5 971.1 1315.6 1896.7 646.9 1249.8 20021 -360.0 977.5 1337.5 1939.5 672.0 1267.5 20022 -425.6 1018.1 1443.7 1959.8 688.2 1271.6 20023 -432.9 1038.6 1471.5 1981.0 697.7 1283.3 20024 -476.0 1025.4 1501.4 2011.3 716.9 1294.4 20031 -487.2 1031.8 1519.0 2052.0 735.2 1316.8 20032 -510.9 1026.7 1537.6 2085.6 778.7 1306.9 20033 -526.5 1038.7 1565.2 2109.8 788.4 1321.4 20034 -547.0 1051.3 1598.3 2133.7 797.1 1336.6 20041 -562.1 1069.7 1631.9 2158.7 806.2 1352.4 20042 -578.0 1088.9 1666.9 2184.7 815.7 1369.0 20043 -592.0 1108.6 1700.6 2211.7 825.6 1386.1 20044 -605.5 1129.0 1734.4 2239.3 835.6 1403.6 20051 -615.1 1152.5 1767.6 2267.4 845.9 1421.5 20052 -623.5 1176.5 1800.0 2295.9 856.3 1439.7 20053 -631.0 1200.9 1832.0 2324.8 866.8 1458.0 20054 -639.1 1225.9 1864.9 2354.0 877.4 1476.6 20061 -646.8 1251.2 1898.0 2383.5 888.2 1495.3 20062 -654.3 1277.1 1931.4 2413.3 899.0 1514.3 20063 -661.8 1303.3 1965.2 2443.4 909.9 1533.4 20064 -670.5 1330.1 2000.6 2473.7 921.0 1552.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19981 8396.3 5577.2 692.5 1656.3 3228.4 19982 8442.9 5662.5 719.7 1680.5 3262.3 19983 8528.5 5715.9 727.1 1693.6 3295.2 19984 8667.9 5790.2 767.3 1715.3 3307.6 19991 8733.2 5857.3 777.6 1736.1 3343.6 19992 8775.5 5940.6 804.2 1756.7 3379.7 19993 8886.9 6009.2 824.1 1767.7 3417.4 19994 9040.1 6084.8 844.2 1799.9 3440.7 20001 9097.4 6166.9 879.5 1809.7 3477.7 20002 9205.7 6211.1 871.3 1831.6 3508.2 20003 9218.7 6271.1 888.5 1840.9 3541.7 20004 9243.8 6300.2 876.5 1853.1 3570.6 20011 9229.9 6340.6 900.6 1863.7 3576.3 20012 9193.1 6364.0 912.4 1862.3 3589.3 20013 9186.4 6388.4 922.6 1868.3 3597.5 20014 9248.8 6493.6 992.0 1885.0 3616.6 20021 9363.2 6539.5 975.9 1921.4 3642.2 20022 9392.4 6567.8 980.7 1920.9 3666.2 20023 9485.6 6645.2 1032.4 1925.8 3687.0 20024 9518.2 6667.6 1010.6 1950.0 3707.0 20031 9552.0 6699.2 1005.4 1978.9 3714.9 20032 9608.1 6766.1 1057.9 1979.2 3729.0 20033 9705.0 6828.0 1073.7 1991.2 3763.2 20034 9791.2 6893.1 1090.1 2006.1 3797.0 20041 9875.4 6957.2 1105.8 2021.6 3829.9 20042 9957.7 7019.9 1120.8 2036.9 3862.2 20043 10031.8 7081.0 1135.0 2051.9 3894.1 20044 10102.7 7141.8 1149.1 2066.7 3926.0 20051 10173.4 7200.8 1162.3 2081.0 3957.4 20052 10243.3 7258.3 1174.8 2095.0 3988.6 20053 10312.8 7314.9 1186.8 2108.6 4019.6 20054 10383.8 7372.2 1199.1 2122.1 4050.9 20061 10455.3 7429.0 1211.2 2135.6 4082.3 20062 10527.0 7485.6 1223.0 2148.9 4113.7 20063 10599.1 7542.3 1234.8 2162.3 4145.2 20064 10673.4 7600.7 1247.5 2175.9 4177.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19981 1545.6 1432.5 1099.5 333.0 113.1 19982 1514.8 1472.8 1132.3 340.5 42.0 19983 1557.9 1486.1 1136.6 349.5 71.8 19984 1612.8 1532.8 1175.4 357.4 80.0 19991 1641.6 1561.6 1197.5 364.1 80.0 19992 1620.0 1588.8 1220.4 368.4 31.2 19993 1660.1 1612.5 1243.3 369.2 47.6 19994 1716.3 1624.1 1252.4 371.7 92.2 20001 1721.5 1676.2 1297.1 379.1 45.3 20002 1796.8 1705.3 1329.1 376.2 91.5 20003 1771.0 1707.9 1340.7 367.2 63.1 20004 1757.0 1697.1 1329.9 367.2 59.9 20011 1659.0 1685.9 1311.4 374.5 -26.9 20012 1576.7 1635.0 1261.0 374.0 -58.3 20013 1554.2 1616.0 1241.7 374.3 -61.8 20014 1479.0 1577.4 1206.4 371.0 -98.4 20021 1543.1 1572.0 1188.4 383.6 -28.9 20022 1572.1 1567.2 1181.1 386.1 4.9 20023 1584.6 1565.8 1178.7 387.1 18.8 20024 1607.0 1581.2 1185.3 395.9 25.8 20031 1582.4 1577.6 1172.1 405.5 4.8 20032 1585.3 1603.2 1191.7 411.5 -17.9 20033 1627.3 1613.3 1195.5 417.9 14.0 20034 1660.8 1630.2 1204.9 425.3 30.5 20041 1688.1 1648.4 1217.0 431.3 39.8 20042 1716.1 1669.1 1233.1 436.0 47.0 20043 1735.9 1686.0 1246.6 439.4 49.9 20044 1752.2 1702.7 1260.0 442.7 49.5 20051 1766.3 1718.3 1273.5 444.8 48.0 20052 1779.9 1732.9 1286.8 446.1 46.9 20053 1793.1 1747.1 1300.1 447.0 46.0 20054 1807.5 1762.5 1313.8 448.7 45.0 20061 1822.5 1777.7 1327.7 450.0 44.8 20062 1837.6 1792.9 1341.8 451.1 44.7 20063 1853.0 1808.5 1356.2 452.3 44.6 20064 1870.0 1825.7 1370.9 454.8 44.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19981 -180.8 1003.4 1184.2 1455.8 19982 -223.1 993.1 1216.2 1482.5 19983 -241.3 987.6 1228.9 1489.6 19984 -239.2 1025.6 1264.8 1504.5 19991 -283.2 1007.5 1290.7 1515.5 19992 -319.6 1018.1 1337.7 1526.3 19993 -339.6 1044.1 1383.7 1546.1 19994 -339.6 1075.6 1415.2 1572.8 20001 -368.8 1095.8 1464.6 1567.6 20002 -394.6 1133.9 1528.5 1585.8 20003 -413.1 1165.5 1578.6 1581.5 20004 -418.5 1153.7 1572.2 1592.7 20011 -404.5 1135.8 1540.3 1615.2 20012 -414.8 1098.8 1513.6 1637.4 20013 -419.0 1048.0 1467.0 1633.0 20014 -425.4 1021.8 1447.2 1674.3 20021 -446.5 1030.6 1477.1 1697.1 20022 -487.4 1065.5 1552.9 1703.4 20023 -488.0 1077.7 1565.7 1715.7 20024 -532.2 1061.6 1593.8 1735.4 20031 -510.3 1058.1 1568.4 1737.1 20032 -553.6 1049.7 1603.3 1769.4 20033 -568.6 1057.5 1626.1 1777.4 20034 -588.9 1065.3 1654.2 1785.3 20041 -604.3 1078.4 1682.7 1793.4 20042 -620.8 1091.6 1712.4 1801.5 20043 -635.6 1105.0 1740.6 1809.6 20044 -650.0 1118.6 1768.6 1817.8 20051 -660.7 1135.0 1795.7 1826.1 20052 -670.2 1151.7 1821.8 1834.4 20053 -678.8 1168.6 1847.3 1842.7 20054 -687.8 1185.7 1873.6 1851.1 20061 -696.6 1203.1 1899.7 1859.5 20062 -705.2 1220.8 1925.9 1868.0 20063 -713.7 1238.7 1952.3 1876.6 20064 -723.3 1256.9 1980.2 1885.1
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19981 1708.0 805.8 205.1 96.0 601.1 19982 1733.8 825.0 203.4 96.5 608.9 19983 1768.9 844.8 208.3 98.6 617.2 19984 1788.2 864.1 200.3 98.5 625.3 19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1860.9 820.5 187.5 111.5 741.4 20031 1869.8 803.3 200.7 111.2 754.6 20032 1872.8 808.7 194.4 111.6 758.1 20033 1918.8 822.4 214.9 113.1 768.4 20034 1944.8 830.6 218.7 114.6 781.0 20041 1980.1 848.1 221.5 116.2 794.4 20042 2016.1 866.2 224.0 117.8 808.0 20043 2050.8 884.1 225.9 119.5 821.3 20044 2076.4 892.9 228.2 121.2 834.1 20051 2110.9 910.2 231.3 122.8 846.6 20052 2145.4 927.3 234.9 124.5 858.8 20053 2180.1 944.4 238.8 126.1 870.7 20054 2206.2 952.4 243.3 127.8 882.7 20061 2241.7 969.7 247.9 129.5 894.6 20062 2277.4 987.2 252.5 131.2 906.5 20063 2313.5 1005.0 257.2 132.9 918.5 20064 2340.9 1013.5 262.1 134.6 930.7
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19981 1688.4 444.2 727.9 719.8 8.1 205.2 280.8 30.3 19.6 19982 1700.8 456.5 726.3 719.2 7.1 206.4 280.0 31.6 33.0 19983 1703.2 449.9 729.7 720.3 9.4 209.9 279.7 34.0 65.7 19984 1731.1 461.8 738.5 719.3 19.2 219.6 273.3 37.9 57.1 19991 1734.4 465.5 739.1 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 743.3 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 743.9 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 756.9 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 758.5 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 774.6 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 781.3 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 803.5 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 816.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 832.2 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 849.3 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 870.9 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 916.9 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 927.6 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 934.1 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 948.5 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -256.5 20031 2145.2 626.6 970.8 950.7 20.1 313.0 192.7 43.5 -275.4 20032 2240.8 662.9 985.9 970.1 15.8 336.6 195.0 59.0 -368.0 20033 2278.0 671.2 1004.7 988.9 15.8 343.1 199.9 59.0 -359.3 20034 2315.9 678.5 1024.0 1008.2 15.8 349.8 204.7 59.0 -371.0 20041 2354.7 686.1 1043.5 1027.7 15.8 356.6 209.4 59.0 -374.6 20042 2394.3 694.1 1063.5 1047.7 15.8 363.5 214.1 59.0 -378.1 20043 2434.6 702.5 1083.9 1068.1 15.8 370.6 218.7 59.0 -383.9 20044 2475.8 711.0 1104.6 1088.8 15.8 377.8 223.3 59.0 -399.4 20051 2517.6 719.8 1125.8 1110.0 15.8 385.1 228.0 59.0 -406.8 20052 2560.3 728.6 1147.3 1131.5 15.8 392.6 232.7 59.0 -414.8 20053 2603.7 737.6 1169.3 1153.5 15.8 400.2 237.6 59.0 -423.6 20054 2648.0 746.6 1191.7 1175.9 15.8 408.0 242.7 59.0 -441.8 20061 2693.2 755.7 1214.6 1198.8 15.8 415.9 247.9 59.0 -451.5 20062 2739.2 764.9 1237.8 1222.0 15.8 424.0 253.4 59.0 -461.8 20063 2786.1 774.2 1261.6 1245.8 15.8 432.3 259.0 59.0 -472.6 20064 2834.0 783.6 1285.8 1270.0 15.8 440.7 264.9 59.0 -493.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19981 1048.8 228.3 34.8 570.2 10.3 205.2 19982 1058.6 230.5 34.5 577.0 10.2 206.4 19983 1077.0 238.9 35.3 582.8 10.1 209.9 19984 1113.2 244.4 33.8 605.4 10.0 219.6 19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1331.6 269.6 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1344.0 273.9 37.2 710.4 9.5 313.0 20032 1378.0 276.8 36.0 719.0 9.6 336.6 20033 1402.1 281.1 39.8 728.4 9.6 343.1 20034 1424.7 286.3 40.5 738.4 9.6 349.8 20041 1447.9 291.9 41.0 748.7 9.6 356.6 20042 1471.6 297.7 41.5 759.2 9.6 363.5 20043 1495.3 303.4 41.9 769.8 9.6 370.6 20044 1519.2 309.0 42.3 780.6 9.6 377.8 20051 1543.4 314.5 42.9 791.3 9.6 385.1 20052 1567.7 320.0 43.5 802.0 9.6 392.6 20053 1592.2 325.4 44.3 812.7 9.6 400.2 20054 1617.2 330.9 45.1 823.5 9.6 408.0 20061 1642.3 336.5 45.9 834.3 9.6 415.9 20062 1667.7 342.1 46.8 845.2 9.6 424.0 20063 1693.4 347.8 47.7 856.1 9.6 432.3 20064 1719.7 353.6 48.6 867.3 9.6 440.7
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19981 1012.0 792.3 230.9 -0.2 0.4 -10.6 0.0 36.8 19982 1026.6 803.2 233.3 0.4 0.3 -10.0 0.0 32.0 19983 1041.3 814.1 236.5 0.6 0.4 -9.5 0.0 35.7 19984 1054.8 823.6 240.4 0.7 0.4 -9.5 0.0 58.4 19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 0.0 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 0.0 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 0.0 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 0.0 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 0.0 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 0.0 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 0.0 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 0.0 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 0.0 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 0.0 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 0.0 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 0.0 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 0.0 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 0.0 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 0.0 -52.4 20031 1411.1 1071.8 354.2 -1.8 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -67.1 20032 1411.0 1067.4 358.4 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 -33.0 20033 1427.5 1079.0 363.4 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 -25.4 20034 1441.9 1091.1 365.6 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 -17.2 20041 1456.1 1104.0 366.9 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 -8.2 20042 1471.2 1117.5 368.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 0.4 20043 1487.7 1131.5 371.0 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 7.6 20044 1505.6 1145.9 374.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 13.6 20051 1524.7 1160.7 378.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 18.7 20052 1544.7 1175.6 383.9 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 23.1 20053 1565.4 1190.7 389.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 26.8 20054 1586.7 1206.0 395.5 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 30.5 20061 1608.4 1221.5 401.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 33.9 20062 1630.5 1237.0 408.3 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 37.2 20063 1653.0 1252.8 415.0 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 40.5 20064 1675.7 1268.7 421.8 -1.8 0.5 -12.5 0.0 44.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19981 102.8 102.6 96.3 101.2 104.6 19982 103.0 102.8 95.8 101.0 105.2 19983 103.4 103.1 95.1 101.4 105.8 19984 103.7 103.4 94.5 101.7 106.4 19991 104.1 103.7 93.7 102.1 106.9 19992 104.5 104.3 93.2 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.2 108.1 19994 105.3 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.1 106.2 91.9 106.5 109.8 20002 106.7 106.9 91.7 107.3 110.4 20003 107.1 107.4 91.2 108.0 111.2 20004 107.7 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.0 20011 108.6 108.9 90.7 109.0 113.4 20012 109.3 109.4 89.9 109.8 114.1 20013 109.9 109.3 89.3 109.4 114.4 20014 109.8 109.3 89.0 108.5 115.4 20021 110.1 109.7 88.0 108.5 116.1 20022 110.5 110.5 87.4 109.8 117.0 20023 110.8 110.8 87.0 109.9 117.9 20024 111.2 111.4 86.5 110.3 118.7 20031 111.9 112.1 85.7 111.5 119.6 20032 112.2 112.2 84.8 111.0 120.6 20033 112.7 112.6 85.2 111.4 121.1 20034 113.3 113.1 85.6 111.9 121.6 20041 113.9 113.6 86.0 112.5 122.2 20042 114.5 114.2 86.4 113.0 122.9 20043 115.2 114.8 86.9 113.7 123.5 20044 116.0 115.4 87.4 114.3 124.2 20051 116.7 116.0 87.9 114.9 124.9 20052 117.4 116.7 88.3 115.6 125.6 20053 118.2 117.3 88.8 116.2 126.3 20054 118.9 117.9 89.3 116.8 127.0 20061 119.6 118.6 89.8 117.5 127.7 20062 120.4 119.2 90.3 118.1 128.4 20063 121.1 119.8 90.8 118.8 129.1 20064 121.8 120.5 91.3 119.4 129.8
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19981 99.3 97.8 104.3 97.1 92.6 103.2 19982 99.0 97.1 105.0 96.6 91.6 103.5 19983 98.9 96.7 106.0 95.9 90.5 103.9 19984 98.8 96.3 106.9 95.5 90.4 104.4 19991 98.8 96.0 108.0 95.2 89.5 105.2 19992 98.8 95.7 109.2 95.3 90.6 106.1 19993 98.7 95.3 110.1 95.5 91.9 107.0 19994 98.8 95.2 111.0 95.9 93.1 107.8 20001 99.3 95.3 112.9 96.4 94.7 109.5 20002 99.5 95.4 114.0 96.8 94.9 110.3 20003 99.8 95.7 114.9 97.0 96.0 111.1 20004 100.2 95.9 115.9 97.1 96.2 111.8 20011 100.7 96.0 117.5 96.8 95.6 113.0 20012 101.2 96.0 118.8 96.4 94.2 113.5 20013 101.2 95.7 119.5 96.0 89.9 113.4 20014 101.3 95.3 120.6 95.0 90.9 113.3 20021 101.1 94.8 120.6 94.8 90.5 114.3 20022 101.1 94.5 121.4 95.6 93.0 115.1 20023 100.9 94.2 121.4 96.4 94.0 115.5 20024 101.4 94.2 122.9 96.6 94.2 115.9 20031 102.1 94.1 125.1 97.5 96.9 118.1 20032 101.7 93.8 124.7 97.8 95.9 117.9 20033 102.2 94.1 125.3 98.2 96.3 118.7 20034 102.7 94.6 125.8 98.7 96.6 119.5 20041 103.2 95.0 126.4 99.2 97.0 120.4 20042 103.8 95.5 127.1 99.7 97.3 121.3 20043 104.3 96.0 127.7 100.3 97.7 122.2 20044 104.8 96.5 128.5 100.9 98.1 123.2 20051 105.4 97.1 129.2 101.5 98.4 124.2 20052 105.9 97.6 129.9 102.2 98.8 125.2 20053 106.5 98.2 130.6 102.8 99.2 126.2 20054 107.0 98.7 131.3 103.4 99.5 127.2 20061 107.6 99.3 132.1 104.0 99.9 128.2 20062 108.1 99.8 132.8 104.6 100.3 129.2 20063 108.6 100.3 133.5 105.2 100.7 130.2 20064 109.2 100.9 134.2 105.8 101.0 131.2
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment