US Forecast: October 31, 2003
Forecast Period

2003:4--2007:4 (17 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 30, 2003.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2003:3. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: October 31, 2003, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2003). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2003).

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2003:3.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2003:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.3       
COG           3.0                  3.8       
JG            1.0                 -1.1       
TRGS          8.0                  7.7       
TRSH          7.0                  6.2       
COS           3.0                  5.2       
JS            1.0                  1.6       
EX            3.0/6.0              5.0
PIM           1.5                 -0.1

3.0/6.0 means 3.0 for 2003:4 and 6.0 thereafter.

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

Regarding fiscal policy, no further tax cuts are assumed for this forecast. No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve" in the left menu under "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model, including, as noted above, an exogenous variable like D1G.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 5.8, 3.9, 3.1, and 2.9 percent, respectively. The large increase for the current quarter is because of a large predicted increase in inventory investment. These growth rates are high enough to drive the unemployment rate to 5.0 percent by the end of 2004.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to rise to 3.0 percent by the end of 2004.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, 2001:3, and 2001:4 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.8 percent by the end of 2004.

Other Variables: The federal government is now running a large budget deficit, and the model is predicting that the deficit will continue to be large throughout the forecast period (see the predicted values for SGP). By the end of 2004 the deficit is about $400 billion (remember this is the deficit as measured in the NIPA accounts).

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period. It is predicted to be $674.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004.

Possible Experiments to Run

The current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending (if you think that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed for the forecast, perhaps because of increased defense spending). You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate (if you think that the model has overpredicted the bill rate). You can also lower the tax rate D1G if you think that the values used for the forecast are too high.

On the contractionary side, if you think there will be an oil price shock you can increase PIM. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. You may also want to use lower values for exports, EX, than the forecast uses if you think that the values used for the forecast are too high.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1000. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 800, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: October 31, 2003
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19991 8733.2 3.0 3343.6 4.4 1736.1 4.9 777.6 5.5 19992 8775.5 2.0 3379.7 4.4 1756.7 4.8 804.2 14.4 19993 8886.9 5.2 3417.4 4.5 1767.7 2.5 824.1 10.3 19994 9040.1 7.1 3440.7 2.8 1799.9 7.5 844.2 10.1 20001 9097.4 2.6 3477.7 4.4 1809.7 2.2 879.5 17.8 20002 9205.7 4.8 3508.2 3.6 1831.6 4.9 871.3 -3.7 20003 9218.7 0.6 3541.7 3.9 1840.9 2.0 888.5 8.1 20004 9243.8 1.1 3570.6 3.3 1853.1 2.7 876.5 -5.3 20011 9229.9 -0.6 3576.3 0.6 1863.7 2.3 900.6 11.5 20012 9193.1 -1.6 3589.3 1.5 1862.3 -0.3 912.4 5.3 20013 9186.4 -0.3 3597.5 0.9 1868.3 1.3 922.6 4.5 20014 9248.8 2.7 3616.6 2.1 1885.0 3.6 992.0 33.7 20021 9363.2 5.0 3642.2 2.9 1921.4 8.0 975.9 -6.3 20022 9392.4 1.3 3666.2 2.7 1920.9 -0.1 980.7 2.0 20023 9485.6 4.0 3687.0 2.3 1925.8 1.0 1032.4 22.8 20024 9518.2 1.4 3707.0 2.2 1950.0 5.1 1010.6 -8.2 20031 9552.0 1.4 3714.9 0.9 1978.9 6.1 1005.4 -2.0 20032 9629.4 3.3 3728.0 1.4 1985.6 1.4 1061.5 24.3 20033 9797.2 7.2 3748.5 2.2 2023.7 7.9 1126.6 26.9 20034 9936.5 5.8 3782.1 3.6 2041.7 3.6 1136.6 3.6 20041 10032.7 3.9 3814.9 3.5 2057.0 3.0 1150.3 4.9 20042 10109.9 3.1 3847.3 3.4 2072.1 3.0 1165.6 5.4 20043 10182.6 2.9 3879.6 3.4 2087.4 3.0 1181.7 5.6 20044 10251.6 2.7 3912.0 3.4 2102.8 3.0 1198.1 5.7 20051 10321.1 2.7 3944.4 3.3 2118.1 3.0 1214.3 5.5 20052 10392.0 2.8 3976.7 3.3 2133.3 2.9 1230.2 5.4 20053 10464.3 2.8 4009.1 3.3 2148.4 2.8 1245.9 5.2 20054 10537.7 2.8 4041.7 3.3 2163.3 2.8 1261.3 5.0 20061 10612.0 2.8 4074.4 3.3 2178.1 2.8 1276.6 4.9 20062 10686.8 2.9 4107.3 3.3 2192.9 2.7 1291.8 4.8 20063 10762.2 2.9 4140.5 3.3 2207.6 2.7 1306.9 4.8 20064 10838.1 2.8 4173.9 3.3 2222.5 2.7 1322.0 4.7 20071 10914.5 2.8 4207.7 3.3 2237.4 2.7 1337.3 4.7 20072 10991.5 2.9 4241.7 3.3 2252.4 2.7 1352.6 4.7 20073 11069.1 2.9 4276.1 3.3 2267.5 2.7 1368.2 4.7 20074 11147.4 2.9 4310.8 3.3 2282.8 2.7 1383.9 4.7
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19991 309.7 -7.8 1039.8 9.7 80.0 1290.7 8.4 19992 313.4 4.8 1048.5 3.4 31.2 1337.7 15.4 19993 314.1 0.9 1030.7 -6.6 47.6 1383.7 14.5 19994 316.2 2.7 1045.1 5.7 92.2 1415.2 9.4 20001 320.0 4.9 1092.1 19.2 45.3 1464.6 14.7 20002 317.5 -3.0 1116.6 9.3 91.5 1528.5 18.6 20003 309.9 -9.2 1129.5 4.7 63.1 1578.6 13.8 20004 309.9 0.0 1137.5 2.9 59.9 1572.2 -1.6 20011 321.1 15.2 1108.5 -9.8 -26.9 1540.3 -7.9 20012 320.6 -0.5 1071.4 -12.8 -58.3 1513.6 -6.8 20013 320.9 0.3 1053.0 -6.7 -61.8 1467.0 -11.8 20014 318.1 -3.5 1009.7 -15.5 -98.4 1447.2 -5.3 20021 328.9 14.3 997.7 -4.6 -28.9 1477.1 8.5 20022 331.0 2.6 985.8 -4.7 4.9 1552.9 22.2 20023 331.9 1.0 979.6 -2.5 18.8 1565.7 3.3 20024 339.4 9.4 992.6 5.4 25.8 1593.8 7.4 20031 347.6 10.1 988.0 -1.8 4.8 1568.4 -6.2 20032 353.7 7.1 999.4 4.7 -17.6 1601.7 8.8 20033 370.5 20.4 1026.1 11.1 -35.8 1602.0 0.1 20034 366.9 -3.8 1053.8 11.2 50.5 1651.3 12.9 20041 371.7 5.4 1077.5 9.3 67.1 1686.3 8.8 20042 377.8 6.7 1103.4 10.0 66.4 1727.9 10.2 20043 383.3 6.1 1125.3 8.2 61.9 1767.1 9.4 20044 388.2 5.2 1144.1 6.9 55.9 1805.3 8.9 20051 392.4 4.4 1161.0 6.0 51.3 1841.8 8.3 20052 395.8 3.6 1177.3 5.7 48.5 1877.2 7.9 20053 398.7 2.9 1193.5 5.6 46.9 1911.8 7.6 20054 401.1 2.5 1209.8 5.6 46.3 1945.9 7.3 20061 403.3 2.2 1226.1 5.5 46.1 1979.7 7.1 20062 405.4 2.1 1242.4 5.4 46.1 2013.3 7.0 20063 407.4 2.0 1258.6 5.3 46.2 2046.8 6.8 20064 409.4 2.0 1274.6 5.2 46.2 2080.2 6.7 20071 411.5 2.1 1290.3 5.0 46.3 2113.7 6.6 20072 413.7 2.2 1305.8 4.9 46.3 2147.4 6.5 20073 416.1 2.3 1321.0 4.7 46.4 2181.3 6.5 20074 418.6 2.4 1336.0 4.6 46.5 2215.6 6.4
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19991 1.8 2.6 9.3 6.5 19992 1.5 2.0 1.3 -0.7 19993 1.2 1.2 2.9 1.7 19994 1.7 1.7 6.2 4.4 20001 3.1 2.9 12.7 9.6 20002 2.3 2.4 5.0 2.6 20003 1.6 1.8 8.6 6.7 20004 2.1 2.1 5.2 3.0 20011 3.6 3.3 4.3 0.9 20012 2.5 2.3 3.0 0.7 20013 2.2 2.4 3.4 1.0 20014 -0.5 -0.4 2.2 2.6 20021 1.4 0.7 3.9 3.1 20022 1.3 1.8 2.3 0.5 20023 1.0 0.1 1.9 1.8 20024 1.8 2.4 1.7 -0.7 20031 2.5 1.8 3.5 1.7 20032 0.9 0.2 6.3 6.1 20033 1.7 1.0 4.2 3.2 20034 2.0 2.2 3.8 1.6 20041 2.5 2.5 4.1 1.5 20042 2.8 2.7 4.3 1.5 20043 2.9 2.9 4.4 1.5 20044 3.0 2.9 4.5 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 4.5 1.5 20052 3.0 2.9 4.5 1.5 20053 3.0 2.9 4.5 1.5 20054 2.9 2.9 4.5 1.6 20061 2.9 2.8 4.4 1.6 20062 2.8 2.7 4.4 1.6 20063 2.8 2.7 4.4 1.6 20064 2.7 2.6 4.3 1.6 20071 2.7 2.6 4.3 1.7 20072 2.6 2.6 4.3 1.7 20073 2.6 2.5 4.3 1.7 20074 2.6 2.5 4.2 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1318.3 2.4 72.2 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1330.0 3.6 73.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1345.2 4.6 72.1 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.0 18.3 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1381.4 -6.0 64.4 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1385.1 1.1 65.7 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1383.2 -0.6 61.6 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.3 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1409.5 6.4 65.0 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1437.1 8.1 66.5 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.6 14.2 71.5 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.1 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1535.9 -2.4 68.5 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1562.8 7.2 69.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1593.8 8.2 70.9 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.4 3.5 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1664.4 14.9 76.4 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1718.0 13.5 77.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1739.1 5.0 78.6 20034 1.3 5.7 5.8 1776.1 8.8 81.1 20041 1.9 5.7 5.8 1795.1 4.4 81.7 20042 2.3 5.6 5.8 1820.2 5.7 82.7 20043 2.6 5.6 5.9 1832.6 2.8 82.6 20044 2.8 5.5 5.9 1850.7 4.0 83.1 20051 3.0 5.5 6.0 1864.2 3.0 83.1 20052 3.1 5.5 6.0 1881.3 3.7 83.5 20053 3.2 5.5 6.1 1895.8 3.1 83.6 20054 3.3 5.6 6.2 1912.7 3.6 84.0 20061 3.4 5.6 6.2 1928.6 3.4 84.2 20062 3.4 5.6 6.3 1946.2 3.7 84.6 20063 3.5 5.6 6.3 1963.4 3.6 85.0 20064 3.5 5.6 6.4 1981.7 3.8 85.5 20071 3.5 5.6 6.4 2000.0 3.7 85.9 20072 3.6 5.7 6.4 2019.1 3.9 86.4 20073 3.6 5.7 6.5 2038.5 3.9 86.9 20074 3.6 5.7 6.5 2058.5 4.0 87.5
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19991 4.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.0 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.5 0.1 3.8 2.7 0.9 6.0 19993 4.3 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.3 1.3 6.0 19994 4.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 5.8 20001 4.0 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 2.4 0.8 5.7 20002 4.0 -0.3 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 5.7 20003 4.0 0.3 -2.0 0.6 0.5 -0.7 5.8 20004 3.9 0.9 0.8 3.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 20011 4.2 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.0 1.3 6.0 20012 4.4 -0.2 -2.0 -0.5 -2.0 -1.9 6.4 20013 4.8 0.0 -0.4 2.8 -1.9 -1.0 7.0 20014 5.6 0.5 0.4 4.8 -3.0 -1.4 8.1 20021 5.6 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -2.5 -0.2 8.1 20022 5.9 0.5 0.3 4.9 -0.2 0.7 8.5 20023 5.8 -0.2 -0.7 4.4 -0.1 1.4 8.4 20024 5.9 -1.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 -0.4 8.6 20031 5.8 -0.9 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.6 8.4 20032 6.2 2.3 1.7 3.1 -0.5 0.6 9.0 20033 6.1 0.5 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 9.0 20034 5.9 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.4 8.7 20041 5.6 1.1 2.0 2.1 3.7 3.0 8.3 20042 5.3 1.1 2.0 2.2 3.7 3.0 7.9 20043 5.1 1.1 2.0 2.3 3.5 2.7 7.6 20044 5.0 1.1 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.4 7.5 20051 4.9 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.1 7.4 20052 4.9 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.5 1.9 7.4 20053 4.9 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.7 7.4 20054 4.9 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.6 7.5 20061 4.9 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.6 7.6 20062 5.0 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.5 7.7 20063 5.0 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.5 7.8 20064 5.1 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.5 7.9 20071 5.1 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 8.0 20072 5.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 8.1 20073 5.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 8.2 20074 5.2 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.5 8.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19991 2643.8 569.4 14.2 4.1 2.1 220.9 88.8 48.3 19992 3996.6 582.6 9.6 2.9 -0.7 264.3 113.0 31.1 19993 -3277.4 570.1 -8.3 2.2 2.5 304.2 117.4 33.7 19994 12719.0 599.4 22.2 2.0 5.1 314.7 128.8 39.6 20001 3930.0 595.3 -2.7 2.7 0.1 356.9 223.4 32.4 20002 -3458.9 607.7 8.6 3.0 6.5 376.9 197.2 20.2 20003 -674.3 576.0 -19.3 3.0 0.6 419.2 213.1 19.1 20004 -5658.6 546.5 -19.0 3.0 2.1 429.8 193.8 -0.1 20011 -8029.7 498.8 -30.6 2.5 -1.6 409.6 173.8 -16.6 20012 2815.6 528.4 25.9 2.0 1.8 382.4 144.6 -32.4 20013 -9031.6 491.7 -25.0 4.1 3.6 350.8 -51.7 -46.1 20014 6141.1 399.0 -56.6 0.9 4.3 363.9 21.3 -30.2 20021 -316.4 421.5 24.5 3.6 6.9 421.6 -145.8 -55.7 20022 -6951.8 440.8 19.6 4.2 1.0 497.2 -195.7 -44.9 20023 -7787.4 452.4 10.9 3.6 5.3 495.5 -210.5 -54.8 20024 3863.8 478.3 24.9 3.7 0.5 541.2 -256.5 -52.4 20031 -1289.9 502.5 21.8 3.6 1.7 559.9 -280.1 -68.1 20032 5809.8 473.9 -20.9 3.3 5.8 569.9 -390.1 -14.8 20033 800.0 576.1 118.4 3.4 9.4 551.9 -451.6 -8.7 20034 1328.3 641.2 53.4 2.6 2.2 592.2 -350.9 4.0 20041 1189.4 643.8 1.6 2.9 -0.2 610.3 -354.9 15.8 20042 1209.3 633.2 -6.4 3.1 -0.8 634.1 -363.7 26.5 20043 1229.8 623.5 -6.0 3.3 -0.6 654.8 -373.8 35.8 20044 1224.4 616.0 -4.7 3.4 -0.4 674.1 -385.4 43.7 20051 1206.3 613.5 -1.6 3.4 0.0 691.5 -397.4 50.5 20052 1218.0 615.7 1.4 3.5 0.4 707.6 -409.8 56.5 20053 1234.9 621.4 3.8 3.6 0.7 722.7 -422.8 62.0 20054 1255.7 629.9 5.5 3.6 0.9 737.1 -436.3 67.2 20061 1269.0 640.1 6.7 3.7 1.1 751.1 -450.5 72.2 20062 1286.5 651.5 7.3 3.7 1.2 764.8 -465.4 77.1 20063 1304.7 663.8 7.7 3.7 1.3 778.2 -481.0 82.0 20064 1326.1 676.5 7.9 3.8 1.4 791.4 -497.3 86.9 20071 1346.5 689.6 8.0 3.8 1.5 804.5 -514.2 91.9 20072 1368.2 703.0 8.0 3.8 1.5 817.5 -531.8 97.0 20073 1389.9 716.5 7.9 3.9 1.6 830.6 -549.9 102.3 20074 1412.8 730.0 7.8 3.9 1.6 843.7 -568.6 107.7
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19991 -7.6 18.5 -6.9 730.8 6.6 -3.9 19992 9.1 5.9 4.3 733.4 1.4 4.9 19993 16.9 7.3 10.6 735.3 1.0 5.8 19994 23.6 11.2 12.6 738.2 1.6 5.5 20001 -30.0 10.9 7.7 749.9 6.5 6.8 20002 25.0 -5.1 14.6 765.1 8.4 1.1 20003 -8.0 2.8 11.6 769.7 2.4 4.7 20004 6.1 5.4 -4.0 779.0 4.9 0.9 20011 15.9 7.6 -6.1 809.9 16.8 -2.5 20012 12.0 8.9 -12.4 824.5 7.4 -5.9 20013 1.7 -13.8 -17.2 840.4 7.9 -17.0 20014 28.4 20.1 -9.6 855.6 7.4 4.7 20021 11.7 9.5 3.5 894.1 19.3 -1.6 20022 12.7 -6.4 14.2 917.0 10.6 11.1 20023 5.1 3.3 4.7 924.4 3.3 4.4 20024 18.2 1.3 -5.8 934.0 4.2 0.9 20031 -2.8 0.0 -1.3 950.7 7.3 11.7 20032 46.8 0.7 -1.0 970.8 8.7 -3.8 20033 2.0 4.0 9.3 982.8 5.0 3.1 20034 3.0 3.0 3.0 1001.9 8.0 1.5 20041 3.0 3.0 6.0 1021.4 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 6.0 1041.2 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 6.0 1061.4 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 6.0 1082.0 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 6.0 1103.1 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 6.0 1124.5 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 6.0 1146.3 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 6.0 1168.6 8.0 1.5 20061 3.0 3.0 6.0 1191.3 8.0 1.5 20062 3.0 3.0 6.0 1214.5 8.0 1.5 20063 3.0 3.0 6.0 1238.0 8.0 1.5 20064 3.0 3.0 6.0 1262.1 8.0 1.5 20071 3.0 3.0 6.0 1286.6 8.0 1.5 20072 3.0 3.0 6.0 1311.6 8.0 1.5 20073 3.0 3.0 6.0 1337.1 8.0 1.5 20074 3.0 3.0 6.0 1363.1 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1860.9 820.5 187.5 111.5 741.4 20031 1865.1 800.7 200.7 111.2 752.5 20032 1871.3 806.7 196.5 111.9 756.2 20033 1798.9 703.3 223.7 111.3 760.6 20034 1945.7 815.0 241.1 112.9 776.7 20041 1989.4 838.9 241.8 114.5 794.2 20042 2029.5 862.9 239.0 116.2 811.4 20043 2069.4 886.9 236.4 117.9 828.2 20044 2109.1 910.6 234.4 119.7 844.4 20051 2149.2 934.0 233.7 121.6 860.0 20052 2189.9 957.1 234.3 123.4 875.1 20053 2231.1 980.2 235.8 125.2 889.9 20054 2272.6 1003.1 238.1 127.1 904.3 20061 2314.3 1026.1 240.8 128.9 918.5 20062 2356.3 1049.2 243.8 130.7 932.5 20063 2398.5 1072.4 247.1 132.6 946.4 20064 2441.0 1095.8 250.5 134.5 960.2 20071 2483.8 1119.5 254.0 136.3 974.0 20072 2527.1 1143.5 257.6 138.2 987.8 20073 2570.9 1167.9 261.1 140.1 1001.7 20074 2615.2 1192.7 264.8 142.1 1015.7
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19991 1734.4 465.5 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -256.5 20031 2145.2 626.6 950.7 20.1 313.0 192.7 43.5 -280.1 20032 2261.4 664.3 970.8 20.0 351.4 194.9 58.6 -390.1 20033 2250.5 667.9 982.8 17.0 341.7 188.8 52.3 -451.6 20034 2296.6 675.6 1001.9 17.0 348.3 201.5 52.3 -350.9 20041 2344.3 683.9 1021.4 17.0 355.1 214.6 52.3 -354.9 20042 2393.2 692.6 1041.2 17.0 362.0 228.1 52.3 -363.7 20043 2443.3 701.7 1061.4 17.0 369.0 241.8 52.3 -373.8 20044 2494.4 711.1 1082.0 17.0 376.2 255.8 52.3 -385.4 20051 2546.6 720.7 1103.1 17.0 383.5 270.0 52.3 -397.4 20052 2599.7 730.3 1124.5 17.0 391.0 284.6 52.3 -409.8 20053 2653.9 740.1 1146.3 17.0 398.6 299.6 52.3 -422.8 20054 2708.9 749.9 1168.6 17.0 406.3 314.8 52.3 -436.3 20061 2764.8 759.7 1191.3 17.0 414.2 330.3 52.3 -450.5 20062 2821.7 769.6 1214.5 17.0 422.2 346.0 52.3 -465.4 20063 2879.5 779.5 1238.0 17.0 430.4 362.1 52.3 -481.0 20064 2938.3 789.5 1262.1 17.0 438.8 378.5 52.3 -497.3 20071 2998.1 799.6 1286.6 17.0 447.3 395.3 52.3 -514.2 20072 3058.9 809.7 1311.6 17.0 456.0 412.3 52.3 -531.8 20073 3120.8 819.8 1337.1 17.0 464.9 429.7 52.3 -549.9 20074 3183.8 830.1 1363.1 17.0 473.9 447.5 52.3 -568.6
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1331.6 269.6 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1343.0 272.9 37.2 710.4 9.5 313.0 20032 1396.5 276.0 37.8 721.7 9.6 351.4 20033 1409.9 279.3 43.0 736.2 9.7 341.7 20034 1437.1 286.3 46.4 746.5 9.7 348.3 20041 1462.4 293.9 46.5 757.2 9.7 355.1 20042 1487.6 301.5 46.0 768.4 9.7 362.0 20043 1513.4 309.1 45.5 780.1 9.7 369.0 20044 1539.6 316.6 45.1 792.0 9.7 376.2 20051 1566.2 324.0 45.0 804.0 9.7 383.5 20052 1593.2 331.3 45.1 816.1 9.7 391.0 20053 1620.5 338.6 45.4 828.3 9.7 398.6 20054 1648.0 345.8 45.8 840.4 9.7 406.3 20061 1675.9 353.1 46.3 852.6 9.7 414.2 20062 1703.9 360.3 46.9 864.8 9.7 422.2 20063 1732.3 367.6 47.5 877.0 9.7 430.4 20064 1761.0 374.9 48.2 889.4 9.7 438.8 20071 1790.0 382.3 48.9 901.8 9.7 447.3 20072 1819.4 389.8 49.5 914.3 9.7 456.0 20073 1849.2 397.4 50.2 927.0 9.7 464.9 20074 1879.5 405.2 50.9 939.8 9.7 473.9
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 -52.4 20031 1411.1 1071.8 354.2 -1.8 0.4 -12.7 -68.1 20032 1411.3 1068.0 358.4 -1.9 0.5 -12.7 -14.8 20033 1418.6 1071.6 363.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 -8.7 20034 1433.2 1084.5 365.5 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 4.0 20041 1446.6 1098.4 365.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 15.8 20042 1461.1 1113.1 364.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 26.5 20043 1477.6 1128.4 365.9 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 35.8 20044 1495.9 1144.2 368.4 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 43.7 20051 1515.7 1160.4 372.2 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 50.5 20052 1536.7 1176.7 376.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 56.5 20053 1558.5 1193.1 382.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 62.0 20054 1580.9 1209.7 387.9 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 67.2 20061 1603.7 1226.4 394.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 72.2 20062 1626.9 1243.1 400.5 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 77.1 20063 1650.3 1259.9 407.2 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 82.0 20064 1674.1 1276.9 414.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 86.9 20071 1698.1 1293.9 421.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 91.9 20072 1722.4 1311.1 428.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 97.0 20073 1747.0 1328.4 435.4 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 102.3 20074 1771.8 1345.9 442.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 107.7
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19991 5.7 -276.3 16.7 220.9 89.4 -56.4 19992 -73.6 -227.2 4.4 264.3 104.0 -71.8 19993 -121.2 -201.7 -22.0 304.2 110.2 -69.5 19994 -129.3 -218.7 -15.4 314.7 118.0 -69.3 20001 -95.4 -382.2 -17.0 356.9 220.5 -82.9 20002 -64.8 -384.2 -34.1 376.9 192.1 -86.0 20003 -54.7 -452.8 -36.9 419.2 211.9 -86.6 20004 -57.2 -432.3 -23.6 429.8 191.6 -108.3 20011 -108.4 -322.5 -17.9 409.6 171.4 -132.2 20012 -133.7 -218.5 -12.0 382.4 135.8 -154.0 20013 27.3 -158.5 -24.6 350.8 -53.6 -141.4 20014 -213.1 -23.1 5.8 363.9 13.7 -147.3 20021 -13.8 -94.6 19.5 421.6 -153.1 -179.6 20022 30.4 -184.3 19.5 497.2 -204.2 -158.6 20023 -6.7 -118.7 16.7 495.5 -216.6 -170.2 20024 -23.9 -115.3 17.9 541.2 -252.3 -167.6 20031 -39.3 -94.4 35.8 559.9 -279.8 -182.3 20032 -64.1 -14.1 35.9 569.9 -399.8 -127.7 20033 -69.3 69.3 32.5 551.9 -460.7 -123.7 20034 -129.4 -22.7 33.8 592.2 -360.7 -113.2 20041 -109.0 -67.9 35.3 610.3 -365.3 -103.4 20042 -95.4 -105.9 36.9 634.1 -374.8 -94.9 20043 -85.5 -134.7 38.7 654.8 -385.6 -87.7 20044 -78.7 -156.1 40.5 674.1 -397.8 -82.0 20051 -73.1 -172.7 42.3 691.5 -410.5 -77.4 20052 -67.6 -186.7 44.1 707.6 -423.7 -73.6 20053 -62.1 -198.7 46.0 722.7 -437.4 -70.4 20054 -56.4 -209.3 47.8 737.1 -451.7 -67.5 20061 -50.6 -218.6 49.6 751.1 -466.6 -64.9 20062 -44.8 -226.7 51.3 764.8 -482.2 -62.4 20063 -38.9 -233.8 53.1 778.2 -498.6 -59.9 20064 -33.0 -240.0 54.8 791.4 -515.7 -57.4 20071 -27.2 -245.4 56.5 804.5 -533.5 -54.9 20072 -21.5 -250.0 58.2 817.5 -551.9 -52.3 20073 -15.9 -254.1 59.8 830.6 -570.8 -49.6 20074 -10.4 -257.7 61.5 843.7 -590.3 -46.8 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19991 9092.7 6076.6 728.7 1773.1 3574.8 19992 9171.7 6195.6 749.9 1814.4 3631.3 19993 9316.5 6299.5 765.1 1841.3 3693.1 19994 9516.5 6414.5 779.9 1891.7 3742.9 20001 9649.5 6552.2 808.4 1926.9 3816.9 20002 9820.7 6638.7 799.3 1964.9 3874.5 20003 9874.6 6736.1 810.6 1988.9 3936.6 20004 9953.7 6808.0 797.2 2011.1 3999.7 20011 10028.0 6904.7 816.8 2031.5 4056.4 20012 10049.8 6959.8 820.3 2044.8 4094.7 20013 10097.7 6983.7 824.0 2044.3 4115.4 20014 10152.8 7099.9 882.6 2044.4 4172.9 20021 10313.2 7174.2 859.0 2085.1 4230.1 20022 10378.2 7254.6 856.9 2108.2 4289.5 20023 10506.1 7360.7 897.8 2116.9 4346.0 20024 10588.8 7425.4 873.9 2150.0 4401.5 20031 10692.9 7512.6 861.2 2206.8 4444.6 20032 10802.8 7598.6 900.5 2203.3 4494.8 20033 11038.6 7766.6 947.0 2265.8 4553.8 20034 11251.9 7874.8 960.2 2297.3 4617.3 20041 11430.7 7988.1 977.2 2327.4 4683.5 20042 11597.1 8106.4 996.1 2358.6 4751.7 20043 11764.7 8229.2 1016.3 2391.0 4821.9 20044 11932.5 8355.0 1037.0 2424.3 4893.7 20051 12103.3 8482.1 1057.9 2457.9 4966.3 20052 12277.1 8609.7 1078.7 2491.6 5039.4 20053 12453.0 8737.7 1099.5 2525.2 5113.0 20054 12630.6 8865.9 1120.1 2558.8 5187.1 20061 12809.5 8994.3 1140.7 2592.2 5261.4 20062 12989.4 9123.2 1161.2 2625.7 5336.2 20063 13170.2 9252.5 1181.8 2659.2 5411.5 20064 13352.2 9382.6 1202.6 2692.8 5487.2 20071 13535.3 9513.6 1223.5 2726.5 5563.6 20072 13720.0 9645.8 1244.6 2760.5 5640.7 20073 13906.3 9779.3 1266.0 2794.8 5718.5 20074 14094.5 9914.2 1287.7 2829.4 5797.2
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19991 1618.0 1543.3 1150.0 393.3 74.7 19992 1597.8 1570.1 1167.7 402.4 27.7 19993 1637.8 1591.0 1184.5 406.5 46.8 19994 1693.3 1604.4 1191.9 412.5 88.9 20001 1711.4 1664.6 1236.6 428.0 46.8 20002 1786.3 1697.1 1268.3 428.8 89.2 20003 1766.3 1705.2 1283.4 421.8 61.1 20004 1757.5 1700.4 1274.8 425.6 57.1 20011 1671.1 1698.3 1258.3 440.0 -27.2 20012 1597.1 1654.2 1210.0 444.2 -57.1 20013 1574.9 1635.5 1188.1 447.4 -60.6 20014 1500.7 1597.2 1149.8 447.4 -96.5 20021 1559.5 1589.4 1126.8 462.6 -29.9 20022 1589.4 1584.5 1115.8 468.7 4.9 20023 1597.3 1579.7 1109.8 469.9 17.6 20024 1628.1 1603.6 1117.1 486.5 24.5 20031 1615.5 1610.7 1103.4 507.3 4.8 20032 1616.5 1635.0 1119.0 516.0 -18.5 20033 1656.0 1693.0 1149.8 543.2 -37.0 20034 1775.9 1723.5 1181.6 541.9 52.4 20041 1832.4 1762.4 1210.7 551.7 70.0 20042 1875.8 1806.1 1242.8 563.3 69.7 20043 1911.8 1846.3 1271.6 574.7 65.5 20044 1942.8 1883.4 1298.1 585.3 59.5 20051 1973.0 1918.0 1322.9 595.2 55.0 20052 2003.9 1951.6 1347.4 604.2 52.3 20053 2035.4 1984.5 1372.1 612.4 50.9 20054 2067.6 2017.0 1396.9 620.2 50.5 20061 2100.0 2049.4 1421.8 627.6 50.6 20062 2132.6 2081.7 1446.8 634.9 50.9 20063 2165.2 2113.8 1471.8 642.1 51.3 20064 2197.6 2145.9 1496.6 649.3 51.7 20071 2230.0 2178.0 1521.4 656.6 52.1 20072 2262.5 2210.1 1546.0 664.1 52.4 20073 2295.0 2242.2 1570.4 671.8 52.8 20074 2327.7 2274.5 1594.8 679.7 53.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19991 -196.4 959.2 1155.6 1594.5 550.0 1044.5 19992 -241.8 970.2 1212.0 1620.1 556.1 1064.0 19993 -274.6 996.8 1271.4 1653.8 569.0 1084.8 19994 -286.7 1031.2 1317.9 1695.4 584.9 1110.5 20001 -330.6 1055.9 1386.5 1716.5 575.7 1140.8 20002 -353.1 1098.0 1451.1 1748.8 598.5 1150.3 20003 -384.9 1130.9 1515.8 1757.1 589.7 1167.4 20004 -393.2 1119.8 1513.0 1781.4 592.9 1188.5 20011 -372.8 1100.0 1472.8 1825.0 613.3 1211.7 20012 -365.6 1059.7 1425.3 1858.5 624.8 1233.7 20013 -312.6 1005.8 1318.4 1851.7 627.4 1224.3 20014 -344.5 971.1 1315.6 1896.7 646.9 1249.8 20021 -360.0 977.5 1337.5 1939.5 672.0 1267.5 20022 -425.6 1018.1 1443.7 1959.8 688.2 1271.6 20023 -432.9 1038.6 1471.5 1981.0 697.7 1283.3 20024 -476.0 1025.4 1501.4 2011.3 716.9 1294.4 20031 -487.2 1031.8 1519.0 2052.0 735.2 1316.8 20032 -504.6 1031.5 1536.1 2092.3 779.8 1312.5 20033 -488.6 1059.7 1548.3 2104.6 784.4 1320.2 20034 -528.5 1073.4 1601.9 2129.7 793.5 1336.1 20041 -546.2 1095.8 1642.0 2156.4 803.2 1353.1 20042 -569.5 1119.3 1688.8 2184.4 813.4 1370.9 20043 -589.8 1143.7 1733.5 2213.5 824.1 1389.5 20044 -608.7 1168.8 1777.6 2243.4 834.9 1408.5 20051 -625.6 1194.6 1820.2 2273.8 846.0 1427.8 20052 -641.2 1220.9 1862.2 2304.7 857.2 1447.4 20053 -655.9 1247.7 1903.6 2335.8 868.5 1467.2 20054 -669.9 1274.8 1944.8 2367.1 879.9 1487.2 20061 -683.5 1302.5 1985.9 2398.6 891.3 1507.2 20062 -696.6 1330.5 2027.1 2430.2 902.8 1527.4 20063 -709.6 1359.0 2068.5 2462.1 914.4 1547.7 20064 -722.3 1387.9 2110.2 2494.2 926.0 1568.2 20071 -734.9 1417.3 2152.2 2526.6 937.8 1588.8 20072 -747.4 1447.2 2194.6 2559.1 949.5 1609.6 20073 -760.0 1477.6 2237.6 2592.0 961.4 1630.6 20074 -772.7 1508.5 2281.2 2625.2 973.4 1651.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19991 8733.2 5857.3 777.6 1736.1 3343.6 19992 8775.5 5940.6 804.2 1756.7 3379.7 19993 8886.9 6009.2 824.1 1767.7 3417.4 19994 9040.1 6084.8 844.2 1799.9 3440.7 20001 9097.4 6166.9 879.5 1809.7 3477.7 20002 9205.7 6211.1 871.3 1831.6 3508.2 20003 9218.7 6271.1 888.5 1840.9 3541.7 20004 9243.8 6300.2 876.5 1853.1 3570.6 20011 9229.9 6340.6 900.6 1863.7 3576.3 20012 9193.1 6364.0 912.4 1862.3 3589.3 20013 9186.4 6388.4 922.6 1868.3 3597.5 20014 9248.8 6493.6 992.0 1885.0 3616.6 20021 9363.2 6539.5 975.9 1921.4 3642.2 20022 9392.4 6567.8 980.7 1920.9 3666.2 20023 9485.6 6645.2 1032.4 1925.8 3687.0 20024 9518.2 6667.6 1010.6 1950.0 3707.0 20031 9552.0 6699.2 1005.4 1978.9 3714.9 20032 9629.4 6775.1 1061.5 1985.6 3728.0 20033 9797.2 6898.8 1126.6 2023.7 3748.5 20034 9936.5 6960.5 1136.6 2041.7 3782.1 20041 10032.7 7022.2 1150.3 2057.0 3814.9 20042 10109.9 7084.9 1165.6 2072.1 3847.3 20043 10182.6 7148.7 1181.7 2087.4 3879.6 20044 10251.6 7212.8 1198.1 2102.8 3912.0 20051 10321.1 7276.8 1214.3 2118.1 3944.4 20052 10392.0 7340.2 1230.2 2133.3 3976.7 20053 10464.3 7403.3 1245.9 2148.4 4009.1 20054 10537.7 7466.2 1261.3 2163.3 4041.7 20061 10612.0 7529.1 1276.6 2178.1 4074.4 20062 10686.8 7592.0 1291.8 2192.9 4107.3 20063 10762.2 7655.0 1306.9 2207.6 4140.5 20064 10838.1 7718.4 1322.0 2222.5 4173.9 20071 10914.5 7782.3 1337.3 2237.4 4207.7 20072 10991.5 7846.7 1352.6 2252.4 4241.7 20073 11069.1 7911.8 1368.2 2267.5 4276.1 20074 11147.4 7977.5 1383.9 2282.8 4310.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19991 1641.6 1561.6 1197.5 364.1 80.0 19992 1620.0 1588.8 1220.4 368.4 31.2 19993 1660.1 1612.5 1243.3 369.2 47.6 19994 1716.3 1624.1 1252.4 371.7 92.2 20001 1721.5 1676.2 1297.1 379.1 45.3 20002 1796.8 1705.3 1329.1 376.2 91.5 20003 1771.0 1707.9 1340.7 367.2 63.1 20004 1757.0 1697.1 1329.9 367.2 59.9 20011 1659.0 1685.9 1311.4 374.5 -26.9 20012 1576.7 1635.0 1261.0 374.0 -58.3 20013 1554.2 1616.0 1241.7 374.3 -61.8 20014 1479.0 1577.4 1206.4 371.0 -98.4 20021 1543.1 1572.0 1188.4 383.6 -28.9 20022 1572.1 1567.2 1181.1 386.1 4.9 20023 1584.6 1565.8 1178.7 387.1 18.8 20024 1607.0 1581.2 1185.3 395.9 25.8 20031 1582.4 1577.6 1172.1 405.5 4.8 20032 1587.4 1605.0 1193.0 412.0 -17.6 20033 1620.7 1656.5 1224.9 431.6 -35.8 20034 1731.5 1681.1 1252.6 428.5 50.5 20041 1777.1 1710.0 1276.3 433.7 67.1 20042 1808.8 1742.5 1302.2 440.2 66.4 20043 1832.3 1770.4 1324.1 446.3 61.9 20044 1850.4 1794.6 1342.9 451.6 55.9 20051 1867.3 1816.0 1359.7 456.3 51.3 20052 1884.8 1836.3 1376.1 460.2 48.5 20053 1902.8 1855.8 1392.3 463.5 46.9 20054 1921.3 1875.0 1408.6 466.4 46.3 20061 1940.1 1894.0 1424.9 469.1 46.1 20062 1959.0 1912.9 1441.2 471.7 46.1 20063 1977.7 1931.6 1457.4 474.2 46.2 20064 1996.3 1950.1 1473.3 476.7 46.2 20071 2014.7 1968.4 1489.1 479.3 46.3 20072 2032.9 1986.6 1504.6 482.0 46.3 20073 2051.1 2004.7 1519.8 484.9 46.4 20074 2069.2 2022.6 1534.8 487.9 46.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19991 -283.2 1007.5 1290.7 1515.5 19992 -319.6 1018.1 1337.7 1526.3 19993 -339.6 1044.1 1383.7 1546.1 19994 -339.6 1075.6 1415.2 1572.8 20001 -368.8 1095.8 1464.6 1567.6 20002 -394.6 1133.9 1528.5 1585.8 20003 -413.1 1165.5 1578.6 1581.5 20004 -418.5 1153.7 1572.2 1592.7 20011 -404.5 1135.8 1540.3 1615.2 20012 -414.8 1098.8 1513.6 1637.4 20013 -419.0 1048.0 1467.0 1633.0 20014 -425.4 1021.8 1447.2 1674.3 20021 -446.5 1030.6 1477.1 1697.1 20022 -487.4 1065.5 1552.9 1703.4 20023 -488.0 1077.7 1565.7 1715.7 20024 -532.2 1061.6 1593.8 1735.4 20031 -510.3 1058.1 1568.4 1737.1 20032 -546.2 1055.5 1601.7 1773.6 20033 -522.7 1079.3 1602.0 1779.3 20034 -564.0 1087.3 1651.3 1787.3 20041 -583.1 1103.3 1686.3 1795.4 20042 -608.5 1119.4 1727.9 1803.5 20043 -631.3 1135.9 1767.1 1811.7 20044 -652.8 1152.5 1805.3 1819.9 20051 -672.3 1169.5 1841.8 1828.2 20052 -690.6 1186.6 1877.2 1836.5 20053 -707.8 1204.0 1911.8 1844.9 20054 -724.2 1221.7 1945.9 1853.3 20061 -740.1 1239.6 1979.7 1861.8 20062 -755.5 1257.8 2013.3 1870.3 20063 -770.5 1276.3 2046.8 1878.9 20064 -785.2 1295.0 2080.2 1887.5 20071 -799.7 1314.0 2113.7 1896.2 20072 -814.1 1333.3 2147.4 1904.9 20073 -828.5 1352.8 2181.3 1913.7 20074 -842.9 1372.7 2215.6 1922.5
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19991 1823.2 875.0 208.9 97.5 641.8 19992 1847.1 891.2 211.4 98.2 646.3 19993 1876.3 911.2 211.7 100.8 652.6 19994 1922.3 935.8 219.9 104.4 662.2 20001 2009.7 984.5 233.7 107.0 684.5 20002 2022.9 997.2 230.5 109.5 685.7 20003 2049.0 1020.5 222.1 109.8 696.6 20004 2054.1 1033.6 208.9 110.1 701.5 20011 2072.9 1057.9 186.9 112.3 715.8 20012 2072.3 1059.8 183.2 112.2 717.1 20013 1896.0 900.4 168.0 109.5 718.1 20014 1992.3 1025.5 142.9 107.3 716.6 20021 1884.8 874.8 170.5 108.4 731.1 20022 1883.7 856.6 180.2 110.2 736.7 20023 1864.1 831.3 181.1 112.4 739.3 20024 1860.9 820.5 187.5 111.5 741.4 20031 1865.1 800.7 200.7 111.2 752.5 20032 1871.3 806.7 196.5 111.9 756.2 20033 1798.9 703.3 223.7 111.3 760.6 20034 1945.7 815.0 241.1 112.9 776.7 20041 1989.4 838.9 241.8 114.5 794.2 20042 2029.5 862.9 239.0 116.2 811.4 20043 2069.4 886.9 236.4 117.9 828.2 20044 2109.1 910.6 234.4 119.7 844.4 20051 2149.2 934.0 233.7 121.6 860.0 20052 2189.9 957.1 234.3 123.4 875.1 20053 2231.1 980.2 235.8 125.2 889.9 20054 2272.6 1003.1 238.1 127.1 904.3 20061 2314.3 1026.1 240.8 128.9 918.5 20062 2356.3 1049.2 243.8 130.7 932.5 20063 2398.5 1072.4 247.1 132.6 946.4 20064 2441.0 1095.8 250.5 134.5 960.2 20071 2483.8 1119.5 254.0 136.3 974.0 20072 2527.1 1143.5 257.6 138.2 987.8 20073 2570.9 1167.9 261.1 140.1 1001.7 20074 2615.2 1192.7 264.8 142.1 1015.7
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19991 1734.4 465.5 739.1 730.8 8.3 224.9 265.3 39.6 88.8 19992 1734.1 461.6 743.3 733.4 9.9 222.2 264.2 42.8 113.0 19993 1758.9 473.4 743.9 735.3 8.6 234.9 262.1 44.6 117.4 19994 1793.5 486.0 756.9 738.2 18.7 242.0 263.7 44.9 128.8 20001 1786.3 480.0 758.5 749.9 8.6 239.4 264.2 44.2 223.4 20002 1825.7 501.3 774.6 765.1 9.5 242.2 264.1 43.5 197.2 20003 1835.9 494.2 781.3 769.7 11.6 253.8 263.0 43.6 213.1 20004 1860.3 497.7 803.5 779.0 24.5 254.6 260.5 44.0 193.8 20011 1899.1 517.3 816.3 809.9 6.4 266.8 254.1 44.6 173.8 20012 1927.7 524.9 832.2 824.5 7.7 281.9 243.1 45.6 144.6 20013 1947.7 527.9 849.3 840.4 8.9 271.4 233.6 65.5 -51.7 20014 1971.0 543.6 870.9 855.6 15.3 289.4 221.6 45.5 21.3 20021 2030.6 566.3 916.9 894.1 22.8 292.3 208.5 46.6 -145.8 20022 2079.4 581.0 927.6 917.0 10.6 309.6 214.9 46.3 -195.7 20023 2074.6 589.8 934.1 924.4 9.7 305.0 205.8 39.9 -210.5 20024 2117.4 608.9 948.5 934.0 14.5 315.8 202.1 42.1 -256.5 20031 2145.2 626.6 970.8 950.7 20.1 313.0 192.7 43.5 -280.1 20032 2261.4 664.3 990.8 970.8 20.0 351.4 194.9 58.6 -390.1 20033 2250.5 667.9 999.8 982.8 17.0 341.7 188.8 52.3 -451.6 20034 2296.6 675.6 1018.9 1001.9 17.0 348.3 201.5 52.3 -350.9 20041 2344.3 683.9 1038.4 1021.4 17.0 355.1 214.6 52.3 -354.9 20042 2393.2 692.6 1058.2 1041.2 17.0 362.0 228.1 52.3 -363.7 20043 2443.3 701.7 1078.4 1061.4 17.0 369.0 241.8 52.3 -373.8 20044 2494.4 711.1 1099.0 1082.0 17.0 376.2 255.8 52.3 -385.4 20051 2546.6 720.7 1120.1 1103.1 17.0 383.5 270.0 52.3 -397.4 20052 2599.7 730.3 1141.5 1124.5 17.0 391.0 284.6 52.3 -409.8 20053 2653.9 740.1 1163.3 1146.3 17.0 398.6 299.6 52.3 -422.8 20054 2708.9 749.9 1185.6 1168.6 17.0 406.3 314.8 52.3 -436.3 20061 2764.8 759.7 1208.3 1191.3 17.0 414.2 330.3 52.3 -450.5 20062 2821.7 769.6 1231.5 1214.5 17.0 422.2 346.0 52.3 -465.4 20063 2879.5 779.5 1255.0 1238.0 17.0 430.4 362.1 52.3 -481.0 20064 2938.3 789.5 1279.1 1262.1 17.0 438.8 378.5 52.3 -497.3 20071 2998.1 799.6 1303.6 1286.6 17.0 447.3 395.3 52.3 -514.2 20072 3058.9 809.7 1328.6 1311.6 17.0 456.0 412.3 52.3 -531.8 20073 3120.8 819.8 1354.1 1337.1 17.0 464.9 429.7 52.3 -549.9 20074 3183.8 830.1 1380.1 1363.1 17.0 473.9 447.5 52.3 -568.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19991 1119.9 250.5 34.3 600.3 9.9 224.9 19992 1125.9 250.8 34.6 608.5 9.8 222.2 19993 1151.4 256.0 34.6 616.3 9.6 234.9 19994 1179.0 265.9 35.8 625.8 9.5 242.0 20001 1195.8 271.8 37.1 638.1 9.4 239.4 20002 1204.7 275.7 36.8 640.8 9.2 242.2 20003 1225.3 279.1 35.3 648.0 9.1 253.8 20004 1230.9 283.2 33.0 650.9 9.2 254.6 20011 1247.3 282.6 30.4 658.3 9.2 266.8 20012 1261.1 276.3 29.9 663.8 9.2 281.9 20013 1253.7 281.6 28.2 663.2 9.3 271.4 20014 1283.1 284.3 27.7 672.5 9.2 289.4 20021 1273.4 262.0 32.0 677.8 9.3 292.3 20022 1302.7 265.3 33.5 684.9 9.4 309.6 20023 1310.3 267.7 33.7 694.5 9.4 305.0 20024 1331.6 269.6 34.9 701.8 9.5 315.8 20031 1343.0 272.9 37.2 710.4 9.5 313.0 20032 1396.5 276.0 37.8 721.7 9.6 351.4 20033 1409.9 279.3 43.0 736.2 9.7 341.7 20034 1437.1 286.3 46.4 746.5 9.7 348.3 20041 1462.4 293.9 46.5 757.2 9.7 355.1 20042 1487.6 301.5 46.0 768.4 9.7 362.0 20043 1513.4 309.1 45.5 780.1 9.7 369.0 20044 1539.6 316.6 45.1 792.0 9.7 376.2 20051 1566.2 324.0 45.0 804.0 9.7 383.5 20052 1593.2 331.3 45.1 816.1 9.7 391.0 20053 1620.5 338.6 45.4 828.3 9.7 398.6 20054 1648.0 345.8 45.8 840.4 9.7 406.3 20061 1675.9 353.1 46.3 852.6 9.7 414.2 20062 1703.9 360.3 46.9 864.8 9.7 422.2 20063 1732.3 367.6 47.5 877.0 9.7 430.4 20064 1761.0 374.9 48.2 889.4 9.7 438.8 20071 1790.0 382.3 48.9 901.8 9.7 447.3 20072 1819.4 389.8 49.5 914.3 9.7 456.0 20073 1849.2 397.4 50.2 927.0 9.7 464.9 20074 1879.5 405.2 50.9 939.8 9.7 473.9
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19991 1071.6 836.3 245.8 0.1 0.3 -10.3 0.0 48.3 19992 1094.8 855.6 250.4 -0.4 0.3 -10.5 0.0 31.1 19993 1117.7 874.4 255.3 -1.1 0.3 -10.6 0.0 33.7 19994 1139.4 892.3 259.5 -1.5 0.4 -10.5 0.0 39.6 20001 1163.4 914.0 262.0 -2.4 0.3 -9.9 0.0 32.4 20002 1184.5 930.0 267.4 -2.9 0.4 -9.6 0.0 20.2 20003 1206.2 945.4 273.8 -3.0 0.4 -9.6 0.0 19.1 20004 1231.0 962.2 282.1 -3.1 0.4 -9.8 0.0 -0.1 20011 1263.9 976.2 292.4 -2.4 0.4 -1.9 0.0 -16.6 20012 1293.5 990.6 301.5 -2.2 0.5 4.1 0.0 -32.4 20013 1299.8 1000.1 308.5 -2.0 0.4 -6.4 0.0 -46.1 20014 1313.3 1008.2 315.4 -1.8 0.4 -8.1 0.0 -30.2 20021 1329.1 1017.7 323.4 -1.9 0.5 -9.6 0.0 -55.7 20022 1347.6 1030.6 330.7 -2.0 0.5 -11.2 0.0 -44.9 20023 1365.1 1039.6 338.7 -2.0 0.4 -10.8 0.0 -54.8 20024 1384.0 1050.1 349.5 -1.9 0.5 -13.2 0.0 -52.4 20031 1411.1 1071.8 354.2 -1.8 0.4 -12.7 0.0 -68.1 20032 1411.3 1068.0 358.4 -1.9 0.5 -12.7 0.0 -14.8 20033 1418.6 1071.6 363.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 -8.7 20034 1433.2 1084.5 365.5 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 4.0 20041 1446.6 1098.4 365.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 15.8 20042 1461.1 1113.1 364.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 26.5 20043 1477.6 1128.4 365.9 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 35.8 20044 1495.9 1144.2 368.4 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 43.7 20051 1515.7 1160.4 372.2 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 50.5 20052 1536.7 1176.7 376.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 56.5 20053 1558.5 1193.1 382.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 62.0 20054 1580.9 1209.7 387.9 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 67.2 20061 1603.7 1226.4 394.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 72.2 20062 1626.9 1243.1 400.5 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 77.1 20063 1650.3 1259.9 407.2 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 82.0 20064 1674.1 1276.9 414.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 86.9 20071 1698.1 1293.9 421.0 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 91.9 20072 1722.4 1311.1 428.1 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 97.0 20073 1747.0 1328.4 435.4 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 102.3 20074 1771.8 1345.9 442.8 -1.9 0.5 -14.4 0.0 107.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19991 104.1 103.7 93.7 102.1 106.9 19992 104.5 104.3 93.2 103.3 107.4 19993 104.8 104.8 92.8 104.2 108.1 19994 105.3 105.4 92.4 105.1 108.8 20001 106.1 106.2 91.9 106.5 109.8 20002 106.7 106.9 91.7 107.3 110.4 20003 107.1 107.4 91.2 108.0 111.2 20004 107.7 108.1 91.0 108.5 112.0 20011 108.6 108.9 90.7 109.0 113.4 20012 109.3 109.4 89.9 109.8 114.1 20013 109.9 109.3 89.3 109.4 114.4 20014 109.8 109.3 89.0 108.5 115.4 20021 110.1 109.7 88.0 108.5 116.1 20022 110.5 110.5 87.4 109.8 117.0 20023 110.8 110.8 87.0 109.9 117.9 20024 111.2 111.4 86.5 110.3 118.7 20031 111.9 112.1 85.7 111.5 119.6 20032 112.2 112.2 84.8 111.0 120.6 20033 112.7 112.6 84.1 112.0 121.5 20034 113.2 113.1 84.5 112.5 122.1 20041 113.9 113.8 84.9 113.1 122.8 20042 114.7 114.4 85.5 113.8 123.5 20043 115.5 115.1 86.0 114.5 124.3 20044 116.4 115.8 86.6 115.3 125.1 20051 117.3 116.6 87.1 116.0 125.9 20052 118.1 117.3 87.7 116.8 126.7 20053 119.0 118.0 88.2 117.5 127.5 20054 119.9 118.7 88.8 118.3 128.3 20061 120.7 119.5 89.4 119.0 129.1 20062 121.5 120.2 89.9 119.7 129.9 20063 122.4 120.9 90.4 120.5 130.7 20064 123.2 121.6 91.0 121.2 131.5 20071 124.0 122.2 91.5 121.9 132.2 20072 124.8 122.9 92.0 122.6 133.0 20073 125.6 123.6 92.5 123.3 133.7 20074 126.4 124.3 93.1 123.9 134.5
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19991 98.8 96.0 108.0 95.2 89.5 105.2 19992 98.8 95.7 109.2 95.3 90.6 106.1 19993 98.7 95.3 110.1 95.5 91.9 107.0 19994 98.8 95.2 111.0 95.9 93.1 107.8 20001 99.3 95.3 112.9 96.4 94.7 109.5 20002 99.5 95.4 114.0 96.8 94.9 110.3 20003 99.8 95.7 114.9 97.0 96.0 111.1 20004 100.2 95.9 115.9 97.1 96.2 111.8 20011 100.7 96.0 117.5 96.8 95.6 113.0 20012 101.2 96.0 118.8 96.4 94.2 113.5 20013 101.2 95.7 119.5 96.0 89.9 113.4 20014 101.3 95.3 120.6 95.0 90.9 113.3 20021 101.1 94.8 120.6 94.8 90.5 114.3 20022 101.1 94.5 121.4 95.6 93.0 115.1 20023 100.9 94.2 121.4 96.4 94.0 115.5 20024 101.4 94.2 122.9 96.6 94.2 115.9 20031 102.1 94.1 125.1 97.5 96.9 118.1 20032 101.9 93.8 125.2 97.7 95.9 118.0 20033 102.2 93.9 125.9 98.2 96.6 118.3 20034 102.5 94.3 126.5 98.7 97.0 119.2 20041 103.1 94.9 127.2 99.3 97.4 120.1 20042 103.7 95.4 128.0 100.0 97.7 121.1 20043 104.3 96.0 128.8 100.7 98.1 122.2 20044 105.0 96.7 129.6 101.4 98.5 123.3 20051 105.6 97.3 130.4 102.2 98.8 124.4 20052 106.3 97.9 131.3 102.9 99.2 125.5 20053 106.9 98.5 132.1 103.6 99.6 126.6 20054 107.6 99.2 133.0 104.4 99.9 127.7 20061 108.2 99.8 133.8 105.1 100.3 128.8 20062 108.8 100.4 134.6 105.8 100.7 129.9 20063 109.4 101.0 135.4 106.5 101.1 131.0 20064 110.0 101.6 136.2 107.2 101.4 132.1 20071 110.7 102.2 137.0 107.9 101.8 133.2 20072 111.3 102.8 137.8 108.5 102.2 134.3 20073 111.9 103.3 138.5 109.2 102.6 135.4 20074 112.5 103.9 139.3 109.9 103.0 136.6
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment