US Forecast: February 5, 2004
Forecast Period

2004:1--2007:4 (16 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 30, 2004. The data have been revised back to 1929, and these data have been used (beginning in 1952:1).

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2003:4. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: February 5, 2004, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). Even though all the NIPA data have been revised, no specification changes to the model seemed to be needed after reestimation. The NIPA tables at the end of this forecast memo are still in the old format (although using the revised data), but Appendix A has been completely updated using the new table format.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2003:4.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2003:4-1993.3  

TRGH         10.0                  5.2       
COG           3.0                  4.1       
JG            1.0                 -1.2       
TRGS         10.0                  7.7       
TRSH          7.0                  6.2       
COS           3.0                  4.6       
JS            1.0                  1.6       
EX            6.0                  5.1
PIM           1.5                 -0.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "solve" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the four quarters of 2004 are 5.2, 3.7, 3.2, and 3.0 percent, respectively. The large increase for the current quarter is because of a large predicted increase in inventory investment. These growth rates are high enough to drive the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent by the end of 2004. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters of 2004 by 2.5, 3.0, 3.1, and 2.9 percent, respectively. This is fairly substantial job growth.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to rise to 2.6 percent by the end of 2004.

Monetary Policy: The Fed lowered the short term interest rate more in 2001:1, 2001:2, 2001:3, and 2001:4 than the model predicted. (You can see this by estimating the model in Eviews or the FP program and examining the estimated residuals for equation 30.) The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.1 percent by the end of 2004.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $400 billion in 2004 (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) This is smaller than many others expect. This is where experimenting may be useful. In particular, it may be that the above assumptions have underestimated future federal government spending. It could also mean, however, that people are too pessimistic about the deficit.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period. It is predicted to be $591.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in lower values for the bill rate (if you think that the model has overpredicted the bill rate). You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be an oil price shock or further depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1150. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 950, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: February 5, 2004
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19991 9315.5 3.4 3696.4 4.7 1849.2 5.3 767.4 -1.5 19992 9392.6 3.4 3738.5 4.6 1867.9 4.1 803.6 20.2 19993 9502.2 4.7 3782.3 4.8 1873.7 1.2 820.7 8.8 19994 9671.1 7.3 3815.0 3.5 1915.7 9.3 826.4 2.8 20001 9695.6 1.0 3871.1 6.0 1917.2 0.3 872.8 24.4 20002 9847.9 6.4 3908.2 3.9 1944.0 5.7 851.3 -9.5 20003 9836.6 -0.5 3949.3 4.3 1954.9 2.3 863.8 6.0 20004 9887.8 2.1 3986.8 3.9 1972.7 3.7 865.4 0.7 20011 9882.2 -0.2 3989.6 0.3 1974.5 0.4 869.1 1.7 20012 9866.4 -0.6 4013.3 2.4 1969.1 -1.1 889.6 9.8 20013 9834.6 -1.3 4029.3 1.6 1983.4 2.9 891.1 0.7 20014 9883.6 2.0 4057.4 2.8 2006.2 4.7 946.6 27.3 20021 9997.9 4.7 4095.3 3.8 2035.9 6.1 950.3 1.6 20022 10045.1 1.9 4137.0 4.1 2037.8 0.4 951.4 0.5 20023 10128.4 3.4 4159.4 2.2 2038.8 0.2 963.1 5.0 20024 10160.8 1.3 4175.4 1.5 2061.8 4.6 963.8 0.3 20031 10210.4 2.0 4190.7 1.5 2090.5 5.7 965.0 0.5 20032 10288.3 3.1 4208.4 1.7 2096.8 1.2 1005.1 17.7 20033 10493.1 8.2 4237.2 2.8 2134.3 7.3 1069.1 28.0 20034 10597.1 4.0 4259.0 2.1 2157.6 4.4 1071.4 0.9 20041 10732.1 5.2 4299.4 3.9 2176.3 3.5 1085.2 5.3 20042 10829.0 3.7 4338.7 3.7 2194.1 3.3 1100.2 5.6 20043 10913.4 3.2 4376.7 3.6 2211.5 3.2 1115.3 5.6 20044 10993.4 3.0 4414.1 3.5 2228.4 3.1 1130.3 5.5 20051 11068.1 2.7 4451.0 3.4 2244.8 3.0 1144.8 5.2 20052 11142.3 2.7 4487.4 3.3 2260.7 2.9 1158.9 5.0 20053 11216.9 2.7 4523.4 3.3 2276.2 2.8 1172.4 4.8 20054 11292.2 2.7 4559.4 3.2 2291.2 2.7 1185.6 4.6 20061 11368.4 2.7 4595.3 3.2 2305.8 2.6 1198.5 4.4 20062 11445.5 2.7 4631.3 3.2 2320.3 2.5 1211.3 4.3 20063 11523.4 2.8 4667.6 3.2 2334.6 2.5 1223.9 4.2 20064 11602.2 2.8 4704.1 3.2 2348.9 2.5 1236.5 4.2 20071 11681.9 2.8 4740.9 3.2 2363.2 2.5 1249.2 4.2 20072 11762.4 2.8 4778.1 3.2 2377.5 2.4 1262.0 4.2 20073 11843.9 2.8 4815.8 3.2 2391.9 2.4 1275.0 4.2 20074 11926.4 2.8 4853.9 3.2 2406.4 2.5 1288.1 4.2
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19991 372.7 -11.4 945.6 9.5 79.5 1242.2 10.7 19992 375.8 3.4 970.5 10.9 41.7 1286.4 15.0 19993 378.1 2.5 957.9 -5.1 50.8 1331.3 14.7 19994 382.7 5.0 966.9 3.8 103.5 1357.9 8.2 20001 383.5 0.9 1008.5 18.3 26.9 1411.5 16.7 20002 380.2 -3.5 1041.2 13.6 99.3 1466.5 16.5 20003 372.4 -7.9 1050.0 3.4 56.2 1515.6 14.1 20004 372.7 0.4 1068.2 7.1 43.5 1509.5 -1.6 20011 381.0 9.2 1043.5 -9.0 4.3 1485.5 -6.2 20012 384.5 3.7 1011.3 -11.8 -28.8 1452.6 -8.6 20013 387.4 3.1 987.6 -9.0 -44.0 1411.9 -10.7 20014 384.9 -2.5 938.5 -18.5 -75.5 1398.1 -3.9 20021 393.1 8.7 924.6 -5.8 -23.5 1426.7 8.4 20022 401.6 8.9 912.1 -5.3 -8.0 1484.1 17.1 20023 405.7 4.2 905.6 -2.8 32.8 1499.2 4.1 20024 412.4 6.8 912.8 3.2 21.5 1529.0 8.2 20031 417.0 4.6 917.4 2.0 1.6 1502.5 -6.8 20032 421.6 4.4 927.2 4.3 -4.5 1535.7 9.1 20033 443.0 21.9 953.5 11.9 -9.1 1538.9 0.8 20034 454.2 10.5 969.5 6.9 6.1 1580.6 11.3 20041 454.4 0.2 995.0 10.9 52.1 1616.5 9.4 20042 459.0 4.1 1024.7 12.5 59.0 1659.3 11.0 20043 462.7 3.2 1048.3 9.5 58.3 1699.0 9.9 20044 465.5 2.4 1069.5 8.4 55.8 1736.9 9.2 20051 467.3 1.6 1086.8 6.6 50.9 1772.0 8.3 20052 468.4 1.0 1102.5 5.9 47.1 1804.9 7.6 20053 469.1 0.5 1117.4 5.5 44.3 1836.2 7.1 20054 469.4 0.3 1131.9 5.3 42.5 1866.5 6.7 20061 469.5 0.2 1146.0 5.1 41.5 1895.9 6.5 20062 469.8 0.2 1160.0 5.0 40.9 1924.8 6.2 20063 470.2 0.4 1173.8 4.8 40.7 1953.5 6.1 20064 470.9 0.6 1187.4 4.7 40.6 1982.1 6.0 20071 471.9 0.8 1200.8 4.6 40.7 2010.8 5.9 20072 473.2 1.1 1214.0 4.5 40.8 2039.7 5.9 20073 474.9 1.4 1227.0 4.3 40.9 2068.8 5.8 20074 477.0 1.7 1239.8 4.2 41.1 2098.4 5.8
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19991 1.6 1.7 7.8 5.9 19992 1.4 2.7 1.6 -1.1 19993 1.4 1.2 3.4 2.1 19994 1.7 1.8 8.0 6.1 20001 3.6 3.1 13.5 10.1 20002 1.7 2.1 4.6 2.4 20003 2.1 1.5 9.5 7.9 20004 1.6 1.8 4.5 2.6 20011 3.2 3.1 6.6 3.4 20012 3.1 3.3 3.1 -0.2 20013 1.6 0.9 3.3 2.4 20014 1.9 1.2 5.4 4.2 20021 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.3 20022 1.6 1.2 2.3 1.0 20023 1.4 1.7 0.8 -0.9 20024 1.8 1.8 0.8 -1.0 20031 2.4 2.0 3.3 1.2 20032 1.0 0.5 8.3 7.8 20033 1.6 1.5 2.3 0.8 20034 1.2 0.5 -1.3 -1.7 20041 2.3 2.0 3.6 1.5 20042 2.3 2.2 3.7 1.5 20043 2.5 2.4 3.9 1.5 20044 2.6 2.5 4.0 1.5 20051 2.6 2.5 4.1 1.5 20052 2.6 2.6 4.1 1.5 20053 2.6 2.6 4.1 1.5 20054 2.6 2.5 4.1 1.6 20061 2.6 2.5 4.1 1.6 20062 2.5 2.5 4.1 1.6 20063 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20064 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 20071 2.5 2.4 4.1 1.7 20072 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.7 20073 2.4 2.3 4.1 1.7 20074 2.4 2.3 4.0 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1318.4 2.4 72.8 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1332.9 4.5 73.9 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1337.2 1.3 72.8 19994 5.0 7.5 8.0 1403.0 21.2 90.4 20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1378.4 -6.8 65.3 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1381.1 0.8 67.0 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1372.5 -2.5 62.7 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 4.5 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1401.9 4.2 66.5 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1429.0 7.9 68.2 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1476.6 14.0 72.8 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 20.0 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1526.3 -4.8 70.2 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1551.2 6.7 71.5 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1583.8 8.7 72.5 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.4 6.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1651.0 11.3 78.6 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1702.0 13.0 79.7 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1711.3 2.2 81.4 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1724.0 3.0 82.0 20041 1.2 5.5 5.7 1728.1 1.0 80.9 20042 1.5 5.4 5.6 1749.8 5.1 81.8 20043 1.9 5.3 5.6 1755.8 1.4 81.0 20044 2.1 5.3 5.6 1771.2 3.6 81.3 20051 2.2 5.2 5.6 1780.1 2.0 80.8 20052 2.4 5.2 5.6 1795.2 3.4 81.1 20053 2.5 5.1 5.6 1805.8 2.4 80.8 20054 2.6 5.1 5.6 1819.9 3.2 81.0 20061 2.6 5.1 5.7 1831.9 2.7 80.9 20062 2.7 5.1 5.7 1846.3 3.2 81.1 20063 2.7 5.1 5.7 1859.5 2.9 81.1 20064 2.7 5.1 5.7 1874.2 3.2 81.3 20071 2.8 5.1 5.7 1888.5 3.1 81.4 20072 2.8 5.0 5.8 1903.8 3.3 81.7 20073 2.8 5.0 5.8 1919.0 3.2 81.9 20074 2.8 5.0 5.8 1935.1 3.4 82.1
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19991 4.3 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.9 6.1 19992 4.3 -0.6 0.1 3.7 2.7 1.0 6.0 19993 4.2 0.1 1.4 2.8 2.3 1.3 6.0 19994 4.1 1.1 2.2 1.5 2.1 2.3 5.8 20001 4.0 -0.5 -0.3 2.9 2.4 0.7 5.8 20002 4.0 -0.4 0.6 1.8 1.1 1.0 5.7 20003 4.0 0.3 -1.8 0.8 0.5 -0.6 5.8 20004 3.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.2 1.9 5.6 20011 4.2 1.6 2.9 2.5 1.0 1.0 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.3 -0.4 -2.0 -1.8 6.4 20013 4.8 0.1 -0.1 3.1 -1.9 -0.8 7.0 20014 5.6 0.7 0.5 4.1 -3.0 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.2 -0.7 0.6 -2.5 -0.5 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.2 4.9 -0.2 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.1 -0.4 4.8 -0.1 1.7 8.4 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 -0.5 8.6 20031 5.8 -1.0 0.1 1.3 -0.8 0.2 8.5 20032 6.1 2.0 1.0 3.0 -0.5 0.7 9.0 20033 6.1 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.9 0.2 9.0 20034 5.9 1.0 -0.3 2.3 0.8 2.1 8.6 20041 5.8 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.0 8.5 20042 5.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 3.0 2.3 8.3 20043 5.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.1 2.3 8.0 20044 5.3 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.2 7.9 20051 5.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.0 7.8 20052 5.2 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.8 7.8 20053 5.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 7.8 20054 5.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 7.9 20061 5.2 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 8.0 20062 5.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.4 8.1 20063 5.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.3 8.2 20064 5.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.3 8.3 20071 5.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.3 8.4 20072 5.5 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.3 8.6 20073 5.6 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 8.7 20074 5.6 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.3 8.8
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19991 2687.1 562.4 18.9 3.8 2.5 211.1 79.4 48.9 19992 3995.7 582.9 15.4 2.3 1.0 252.7 104.7 45.4 19993 -3250.6 574.1 -5.9 1.8 1.9 289.7 107.6 51.9 19994 12672.9 598.4 18.0 2.0 5.2 302.8 122.6 55.5 20001 4019.3 585.7 -8.2 2.5 -1.0 352.9 212.8 56.0 20002 -3423.2 589.7 2.8 2.5 8.6 370.8 181.5 59.8 20003 -640.3 560.4 -18.4 2.7 -0.3 413.7 191.3 48.9 20004 -5657.8 542.4 -12.2 2.0 3.2 408.5 172.6 35.4 20011 -7950.4 509.8 -22.0 2.0 -1.5 391.0 156.0 36.0 20012 2858.9 513.1 2.6 1.1 3.1 377.3 128.9 24.6 20013 -9063.7 460.1 -35.3 2.9 1.6 390.2 -80.1 11.7 20014 6147.2 403.6 -40.8 1.1 3.6 318.9 -2.8 -3.1 20021 -242.6 423.0 20.7 2.6 6.5 398.7 -188.9 -7.5 20022 -6874.0 468.9 51.0 2.9 2.2 464.9 -232.1 -12.0 20023 -7834.9 507.3 37.0 2.2 4.7 464.7 -243.0 6.6 20024 3882.9 551.5 39.7 1.9 1.0 491.8 -296.4 -0.3 20031 -1141.7 550.0 -1.1 1.9 2.3 520.3 -320.5 -40.6 20032 5886.3 531.5 -12.8 2.4 5.3 531.7 -424.5 -14.6 20033 1156.3 591.4 53.3 2.3 7.3 509.3 -499.4 13.1 20034 4400.0 628.0 27.2 1.6 2.2 498.8 -423.7 32.5 20041 1606.0 682.8 39.7 1.4 2.2 519.5 -392.1 43.8 20042 1440.2 699.6 10.2 1.4 0.5 546.6 -394.0 53.5 20043 1378.6 707.8 4.8 1.4 0.1 569.9 -398.7 62.2 20044 1383.0 715.1 4.2 1.4 0.1 591.0 -404.6 69.8 20051 1356.0 721.5 3.6 1.4 0.2 608.7 -412.4 76.2 20052 1359.2 730.9 5.3 1.3 0.5 624.0 -421.0 81.8 20053 1362.7 743.2 6.9 1.3 0.7 637.4 -430.5 86.6 20054 1383.7 758.0 8.2 1.3 0.9 649.4 -440.7 91.0 20061 1398.3 774.9 9.2 1.3 1.1 660.5 -451.4 95.1 20062 1416.1 793.2 9.8 1.3 1.3 670.8 -462.8 99.0 20063 1430.6 812.6 10.1 1.3 1.4 680.7 -474.9 102.7 20064 1449.9 832.6 10.3 1.3 1.5 690.3 -487.5 106.5 20071 1467.7 853.2 10.2 1.3 1.5 699.7 -500.7 110.3 20072 1487.7 874.1 10.2 1.3 1.6 709.1 -514.4 114.1 20073 1506.5 895.2 10.0 1.3 1.6 718.5 -528.7 118.1 20074 1527.2 916.5 9.9 1.3 1.6 728.1 -543.3 122.2
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19991 -5.2 13.8 -3.4 721.7 6.7 -2.2 19992 8.5 5.2 4.6 724.5 1.6 5.3 19993 20.6 6.2 11.0 726.9 1.3 5.8 19994 21.5 9.8 10.9 730.4 1.9 5.4 20001 -30.2 5.2 6.6 743.2 7.2 6.0 20002 28.8 -3.4 12.3 758.6 8.5 0.7 20003 -9.7 1.1 10.7 763.3 2.5 4.2 20004 0.3 2.5 -2.7 771.5 4.4 0.7 20011 15.0 6.8 -4.5 803.0 17.4 -2.9 20012 14.8 10.7 -13.4 816.3 6.8 -6.0 20013 -0.4 -19.7 -17.7 834.6 9.3 -5.3 20014 21.8 14.0 -9.8 850.5 7.8 -9.8 20021 14.7 6.6 4.4 879.7 14.5 -1.6 20022 19.8 -1.1 8.8 907.8 13.4 10.5 20023 5.6 2.5 4.3 914.0 2.8 3.7 20024 32.7 1.7 -3.8 920.9 3.1 0.8 20031 -4.3 -2.5 -2.0 936.9 7.1 11.7 20032 43.1 -1.5 -1.1 954.9 7.9 -4.1 20033 2.2 6.0 9.9 965.0 4.3 2.7 20034 1.8 0.8 19.1 971.0 2.5 1.1 20041 3.0 3.0 6.0 989.9 8.0 1.5 20042 3.0 3.0 6.0 1009.1 8.0 1.5 20043 3.0 3.0 6.0 1028.7 8.0 1.5 20044 3.0 3.0 6.0 1048.7 8.0 1.5 20051 3.0 3.0 6.0 1069.1 8.0 1.5 20052 3.0 3.0 6.0 1089.8 8.0 1.5 20053 3.0 3.0 6.0 1111.0 8.0 1.5 20054 3.0 3.0 6.0 1132.6 8.0 1.5 20061 3.0 3.0 6.0 1154.6 8.0 1.5 20062 3.0 3.0 6.0 1177.0 8.0 1.5 20063 3.0 3.0 6.0 1199.9 8.0 1.5 20064 3.0 3.0 6.0 1223.2 8.0 1.5 20071 3.0 3.0 6.0 1246.9 8.0 1.5 20072 3.0 3.0 6.0 1271.2 8.0 1.5 20073 3.0 3.0 6.0 1295.9 8.0 1.5 20074 3.0 3.0 6.0 1321.0 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19991 1810.9 864.1 206.3 97.5 643.0 19992 1836.2 879.7 211.4 98.0 647.1 19993 1866.2 899.5 213.9 100.2 652.6 19994 1918.1 928.7 220.2 105.3 663.9 20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2053.6 1051.2 178.1 110.6 713.7 20012 2050.8 1050.2 176.5 109.6 714.5 20013 1869.7 887.0 160.2 106.8 715.7 20014 1968.0 1011.5 132.4 106.6 717.5 20021 1827.9 849.0 143.4 105.2 730.3 20022 1836.5 836.6 156.4 107.4 736.1 20023 1826.3 823.6 157.5 106.6 738.6 20024 1825.4 815.4 161.7 106.4 741.9 20031 1826.5 794.3 171.0 106.1 755.1 20032 1827.6 794.6 167.9 106.6 758.5 20033 1748.5 696.3 182.8 106.3 763.1 20034 1830.0 764.3 189.6 109.9 766.2 20041 1901.3 808.5 200.4 111.5 780.9 20042 1940.1 827.4 204.0 113.1 795.5 20043 1976.9 846.2 206.1 114.8 809.9 20044 2013.4 864.9 208.0 116.5 824.0 20051 2048.9 883.2 209.8 118.2 837.7 20052 2084.2 901.4 212.1 119.8 851.0 20053 2119.7 919.3 214.9 121.5 863.9 20054 2155.1 937.1 218.3 123.2 876.6 20061 2190.8 954.9 222.0 124.9 889.0 20062 2226.6 972.7 226.0 126.5 901.4 20063 2262.6 990.6 230.2 128.2 913.6 20064 2298.9 1008.7 234.5 129.9 925.8 20071 2335.6 1027.0 238.9 131.6 938.1 20072 2372.6 1045.6 243.4 133.3 950.3 20073 2410.2 1064.5 247.9 135.0 962.7 20074 2448.3 1083.8 252.5 136.8 975.2
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19991 1731.5 467.0 721.7 8.6 227.0 266.7 40.5 79.4 19992 1731.5 463.9 724.5 10.2 223.7 265.4 43.8 104.7 19993 1758.6 477.6 726.9 8.8 237.6 262.1 45.6 107.6 19994 1795.5 491.8 730.4 19.1 243.2 264.4 46.6 122.6 20001 1786.4 485.7 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1897.6 520.0 803.0 7.1 265.7 254.2 47.6 156.0 20012 1921.9 527.0 816.3 8.0 278.5 244.1 48.0 128.9 20013 1949.8 531.1 834.6 8.7 273.7 235.1 66.6 -80.1 20014 1970.8 548.6 850.5 14.2 287.3 225.3 44.9 -2.8 20021 2016.8 569.4 879.7 22.7 290.6 212.2 42.2 -188.9 20022 2068.6 582.6 907.8 9.9 304.6 221.3 42.4 -232.1 20023 2069.3 590.4 914.0 9.7 306.8 210.9 37.5 -243.0 20024 2121.8 620.7 920.9 15.2 316.4 209.3 39.3 -296.4 20031 2147.0 635.9 936.9 21.1 310.8 198.8 44.9 -320.5 20032 2252.1 668.9 954.9 20.2 345.5 203.3 57.9 -424.5 20033 2247.9 672.3 965.0 19.0 346.3 195.8 49.5 -499.4 20034 2253.7 675.2 971.0 16.2 353.3 188.8 49.2 -423.7 20041 2293.4 682.7 989.9 16.2 361.8 193.6 49.2 -392.1 20042 2334.0 690.6 1009.1 16.2 370.5 198.4 49.2 -394.0 20043 2375.6 698.9 1028.7 16.2 379.5 203.2 49.2 -398.7 20044 2418.0 707.4 1048.7 16.2 388.6 207.9 49.2 -404.6 20051 2461.2 716.2 1069.1 16.2 398.0 212.6 49.2 -412.4 20052 2505.3 725.1 1089.8 16.2 407.6 217.4 49.2 -421.0 20053 2550.2 734.1 1111.0 16.2 417.4 222.2 49.2 -430.5 20054 2595.8 743.3 1132.6 16.2 427.5 227.1 49.2 -440.7 20061 2642.2 752.5 1154.6 16.2 437.8 232.0 49.2 -451.4 20062 2689.4 761.7 1177.0 16.2 448.4 236.9 49.2 -462.8 20063 2737.5 771.0 1199.9 16.2 459.2 242.0 49.2 -474.9 20064 2786.4 780.4 1223.2 16.2 470.2 247.2 49.2 -487.5 20071 2836.3 789.9 1246.9 16.2 481.6 252.4 49.2 -500.7 20072 2887.1 799.4 1271.2 16.2 493.2 257.9 49.2 -514.4 20073 2938.8 809.1 1295.9 16.2 505.1 263.4 49.2 -528.7 20074 2991.6 818.8 1321.0 16.2 517.3 269.2 49.2 -543.3
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19991 1082.6 207.6 34.9 603.3 9.8 227.0 19992 1092.6 210.4 35.6 613.2 9.7 223.7 19993 1123.0 216.0 35.9 623.8 9.7 237.6 19994 1146.6 223.8 36.8 632.9 9.9 243.2 20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 250.9 31.6 674.2 12.6 265.7 20012 1259.4 258.4 31.3 678.1 13.1 278.5 20013 1233.9 233.9 29.3 683.6 13.4 273.7 20014 1254.2 231.6 28.5 693.2 13.6 287.3 20021 1253.5 220.9 29.0 699.5 13.5 290.6 20022 1265.8 207.1 31.3 709.3 13.5 304.6 20023 1301.1 229.4 31.6 719.8 13.5 306.8 20024 1314.2 230.3 32.5 721.4 13.6 316.4 20031 1298.3 215.1 33.9 724.8 13.7 310.8 20032 1333.8 205.6 35.0 733.9 13.8 345.5 20033 1384.0 239.7 38.8 745.3 13.9 346.3 20034 1402.8 240.0 40.2 755.3 14.0 353.3 20041 1429.6 244.9 42.5 766.3 14.1 361.8 20042 1455.3 249.7 43.3 777.5 14.2 370.5 20043 1481.0 254.5 43.7 788.9 14.3 379.5 20044 1507.0 259.3 44.2 800.5 14.4 388.6 20051 1533.1 264.0 44.5 812.1 14.5 398.0 20052 1559.5 268.6 45.0 823.6 14.6 407.6 20053 1586.1 273.2 45.6 835.1 14.7 417.4 20054 1613.0 277.7 46.3 846.6 14.9 427.5 20061 1640.2 282.2 47.1 858.1 15.0 437.8 20062 1667.7 286.7 48.0 869.6 15.1 448.4 20063 1695.5 291.2 48.9 881.1 15.2 459.2 20064 1723.7 295.8 49.8 892.6 15.3 470.2 20071 1752.4 300.4 50.7 904.3 15.4 481.6 20072 1781.5 305.1 51.7 916.0 15.5 493.2 20073 1811.1 309.8 52.6 927.9 15.6 505.1 20074 1841.2 314.6 53.6 940.0 15.8 517.3
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19991 1033.7 834.3 214.2 -2.7 1.7 -10.4 48.9 19992 1047.2 850.8 212.0 -3.5 1.8 -10.3 45.4 19993 1071.1 867.3 219.8 -4.2 1.8 -10.0 51.9 19994 1091.1 883.3 223.9 -4.8 1.9 -9.4 55.5 20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 35.4 20011 1199.0 951.1 248.7 -0.9 1.9 2.0 36.0 20012 1234.8 963.3 265.2 -0.5 1.9 8.7 24.6 20013 1222.2 971.1 253.0 0.2 2.0 -0.1 11.7 20014 1257.3 978.8 280.9 1.0 2.0 -1.4 -3.1 20021 1261.0 984.8 279.5 2.1 2.1 -3.3 -7.5 20022 1277.8 999.5 282.0 3.4 2.1 -5.0 -12.0 20023 1294.5 1010.1 286.5 4.5 2.1 -4.5 6.6 20024 1314.5 1024.2 293.7 5.7 2.3 -6.8 -0.3 20031 1338.9 1045.8 294.2 7.5 2.3 -6.3 -40.6 20032 1348.4 1040.9 307.8 8.7 2.2 -6.8 -14.6 20033 1370.9 1046.3 324.0 9.6 2.1 -6.9 13.1 20034 1370.3 1048.4 317.3 11.0 2.0 -4.4 32.5 20041 1385.8 1060.4 320.7 11.1 2.0 -4.4 43.8 20042 1401.8 1073.1 323.9 11.2 2.0 -4.4 53.5 20043 1418.8 1086.5 327.5 11.2 2.0 -4.4 62.2 20044 1437.2 1100.3 331.9 11.3 2.0 -4.4 69.8 20051 1456.9 1114.5 337.3 11.4 2.0 -4.4 76.2 20052 1477.7 1129.0 343.6 11.5 2.0 -4.4 81.8 20053 1499.5 1143.7 350.6 11.6 2.0 -4.4 86.6 20054 1522.0 1158.6 358.1 11.7 2.0 -4.4 91.0 20061 1545.1 1173.6 366.1 11.8 2.0 -4.4 95.1 20062 1568.7 1188.7 374.5 11.8 2.0 -4.4 99.0 20063 1592.8 1204.0 383.3 11.9 2.0 -4.4 102.7 20064 1617.2 1219.4 392.3 12.0 2.0 -4.4 106.5 20071 1642.1 1234.9 401.5 12.1 2.0 -4.4 110.3 20072 1667.3 1250.5 411.0 12.2 2.0 -4.4 114.1 20073 1693.0 1266.3 420.8 12.3 2.0 -4.4 118.1 20074 1719.0 1282.3 430.7 12.4 2.0 -4.4 122.2
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19991 -28.4 -238.6 23.0 211.1 85.1 -52.2 19992 -125.1 -186.5 12.4 252.7 102.1 -55.7 19993 -161.7 -173.5 -10.0 289.7 106.7 -51.2 19994 -152.2 -207.0 -6.5 302.8 117.8 -54.9 20001 -123.7 -369.9 -16.9 352.9 218.5 -60.9 20002 -122.0 -338.2 -40.9 370.8 184.1 -53.8 20003 -97.1 -407.2 -40.9 413.7 196.9 -65.4 20004 -144.0 -347.2 -14.7 408.5 178.1 -80.7 20011 -158.2 -316.3 5.7 391.0 162.6 -84.7 20012 -220.6 -199.6 20.9 377.3 127.7 -105.7 20013 -96.5 -150.6 21.6 390.2 -75.0 -89.8 20014 -229.8 -13.6 49.6 318.9 -1.9 -123.2 20021 -120.2 -30.0 72.4 398.7 -185.5 -135.4 20022 -101.0 -48.1 57.3 464.9 -235.7 -137.4 20023 -158.6 9.7 50.1 464.7 -245.4 -120.5 20024 -199.7 76.8 46.4 491.8 -288.8 -126.5 20031 -204.5 93.9 67.0 520.3 -312.8 -164.0 20032 -171.6 137.9 67.2 531.7 -428.8 -136.4 20033 -198.4 231.8 79.2 509.3 -506.8 -115.2 20034 -278.2 228.3 76.5 498.8 -428.7 -96.7 20041 -296.6 183.2 79.1 519.5 -397.6 -87.6 20042 -298.7 150.4 81.9 546.6 -400.0 -80.2 20043 -301.8 126.1 84.9 569.9 -405.2 -73.8 20044 -305.3 106.5 88.0 591.0 -411.7 -68.5 20051 -309.1 93.6 91.2 608.7 -420.0 -64.4 20052 -312.4 84.4 94.5 624.0 -429.2 -61.3 20053 -314.8 77.6 97.9 637.4 -439.3 -58.8 20054 -316.5 72.6 101.3 649.4 -450.0 -56.9 20061 -317.6 69.0 104.7 660.5 -461.3 -55.3 20062 -318.3 66.5 108.3 670.8 -473.3 -53.9 20063 -318.8 65.0 111.8 680.7 -486.0 -52.7 20064 -319.2 64.3 115.4 690.3 -499.2 -51.5 20071 -319.6 64.2 119.0 699.7 -513.0 -50.4 20072 -320.0 64.8 122.7 709.1 -527.4 -49.2 20073 -320.6 65.8 126.5 718.5 -542.3 -47.9 20074 -321.5 67.2 130.3 728.1 -557.6 -46.5 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19991 9066.5 6101.7 785.2 1748.5 3568.0 19992 9174.2 6237.3 818.5 1789.2 3629.6 19993 9313.6 6337.2 832.8 1812.5 3691.9 19994 9519.6 6453.8 834.1 1869.0 3750.7 20001 9629.4 6613.9 876.9 1894.2 3842.8 20002 9822.8 6688.1 854.2 1938.3 3895.6 20003 9861.9 6783.8 861.3 1965.8 3956.7 20004 9953.6 6871.7 860.9 1990.5 4020.3 20011 10027.2 6934.4 862.0 1998.6 4073.8 20012 10088.2 7017.3 875.3 2011.5 4130.5 20013 10096.1 7058.1 870.6 2021.8 4165.7 20014 10193.9 7171.6 919.6 2022.6 4229.4 20021 10329.3 7256.4 914.9 2051.8 4289.7 20022 10419.6 7355.4 909.3 2082.5 4363.6 20023 10542.0 7428.2 913.6 2090.5 4424.1 20024 10623.8 7501.2 907.3 2119.2 4474.7 20031 10738.7 7600.7 898.2 2175.7 4526.8 20032 10846.7 7673.6 926.2 2170.8 4576.6 20033 11106.9 7836.3 975.1 2230.0 4631.2 20034 11249.5 7898.5 967.8 2256.9 4673.8 20041 11457.3 8013.3 985.0 2287.4 4740.9 20042 11627.9 8130.8 1003.8 2318.1 4809.0 20043 11790.0 8250.2 1023.1 2349.3 4877.8 20044 11951.9 8370.9 1042.8 2380.7 4947.4 20051 12110.8 8492.0 1062.3 2412.1 5017.6 20052 12271.6 8612.9 1081.6 2443.4 5088.0 20053 12434.2 8733.4 1100.6 2474.3 5158.6 20054 12598.5 8853.5 1119.3 2504.8 5229.3 20061 12764.7 8973.4 1137.9 2535.1 5300.3 20062 12932.3 9093.4 1156.4 2565.3 5371.7 20063 13101.6 9213.7 1174.9 2595.3 5443.5 20064 13272.4 9334.7 1193.5 2625.3 5515.9 20071 13444.9 9456.5 1212.2 2655.4 5588.9 20072 13619.3 9579.4 1231.1 2685.7 5662.6 20073 13795.8 9703.7 1250.3 2716.2 5737.3 20074 13974.6 9829.6 1269.8 2747.0 5812.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19991 1596.7 1514.5 1101.0 413.5 82.2 19992 1589.9 1551.8 1130.1 421.7 38.1 19993 1628.4 1579.3 1151.5 427.8 49.1 19994 1687.7 1589.5 1153.0 436.5 98.2 20001 1672.3 1642.4 1193.9 448.5 29.9 20002 1781.6 1685.3 1236.5 448.8 96.3 20003 1749.0 1690.6 1247.5 443.1 58.4 20004 1738.9 1697.5 1250.3 447.2 41.4 20011 1690.7 1686.2 1230.3 455.9 4.5 20012 1620.3 1652.7 1186.9 465.8 -32.4 20013 1594.3 1640.3 1162.9 477.4 -46.0 20014 1526.1 1594.2 1116.4 477.8 -68.1 20021 1553.1 1580.9 1092.7 488.2 -27.8 20022 1572.2 1580.4 1080.4 500.0 -8.2 20023 1608.3 1579.7 1073.4 506.3 28.6 20024 1614.8 1594.6 1074.3 520.3 20.2 20031 1608.0 1606.2 1071.8 534.4 1.8 20032 1624.3 1630.1 1086.9 543.2 -5.8 20033 1689.0 1699.5 1124.4 575.1 -10.5 20034 1754.5 1747.5 1148.9 598.6 7.0 20041 1843.9 1783.6 1181.2 602.3 60.4 20042 1898.6 1829.9 1218.5 611.4 68.7 20043 1938.3 1869.9 1250.4 619.5 68.4 20044 1973.1 1907.4 1280.5 627.0 65.7 20051 2000.7 1940.4 1307.0 633.4 60.4 20052 2027.3 1971.2 1332.1 639.1 56.1 20053 2054.0 2000.9 1356.7 644.2 53.1 20054 2081.1 2029.9 1381.0 649.0 51.2 20061 2108.9 2058.6 1405.1 653.6 50.3 20062 2137.2 2087.3 1429.1 658.2 49.9 20063 2166.1 2116.2 1453.1 663.1 49.9 20064 2195.4 2145.3 1477.0 668.2 50.1 20071 2225.0 2174.6 1500.8 673.8 50.4 20072 2255.1 2204.3 1524.6 679.7 50.8 20073 2285.6 2234.4 1548.3 686.1 51.3 20074 2316.6 2264.9 1571.9 693.0 51.8
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19991 -207.5 960.1 1167.6 1575.6 540.6 1035.0 19992 -252.1 972.8 1224.9 1599.1 545.9 1053.2 19993 -285.2 1000.5 1285.7 1633.2 560.0 1073.2 19994 -297.2 1031.6 1328.8 1675.3 576.8 1098.5 20001 -346.4 1055.1 1401.5 1689.6 565.3 1124.3 20002 -366.9 1091.8 1458.7 1720.0 586.6 1133.4 20003 -400.7 1122.4 1523.1 1729.8 581.2 1148.6 20004 -403.9 1115.8 1519.7 1746.9 582.0 1164.9 20011 -381.3 1103.1 1484.4 1783.4 597.5 1185.9 20012 -368.2 1061.1 1429.3 1818.8 609.8 1209.0 20013 -365.0 1005.4 1370.4 1808.7 613.3 1195.4 20014 -351.7 970.8 1322.5 1847.9 630.8 1217.1 20021 -365.6 978.5 1344.1 1885.4 652.9 1232.5 20022 -427.3 1006.3 1433.6 1919.3 673.2 1246.1 20023 -436.0 1025.3 1461.3 1941.5 681.8 1259.7 20024 -476.1 1017.2 1493.3 1983.9 710.0 1273.9 20031 -487.5 1021.0 1508.5 2017.5 723.0 1294.5 20032 -505.5 1020.2 1525.7 2054.3 764.7 1289.6 20033 -490.5 1048.5 1539.0 2072.1 769.6 1302.5 20034 -482.4 1102.6 1585.0 2078.9 771.5 1307.4 20041 -502.7 1124.4 1627.0 2102.8 780.2 1322.6 20042 -529.4 1147.0 1676.4 2127.8 789.3 1338.5 20043 -552.3 1170.6 1722.9 2153.9 798.8 1355.1 20044 -572.9 1195.0 1767.9 2180.8 808.5 1372.2 20051 -590.2 1220.0 1810.3 2208.3 818.5 1389.8 20052 -605.1 1245.7 1850.8 2236.4 828.7 1407.7 20053 -618.1 1271.9 1890.0 2264.8 839.0 1425.8 20054 -629.7 1298.5 1928.2 2293.6 849.4 1444.1 20061 -640.3 1325.7 1965.9 2322.6 859.9 1462.7 20062 -650.2 1353.2 2003.4 2351.8 870.5 1481.3 20063 -659.6 1381.2 2040.8 2381.3 881.2 1500.2 20064 -668.7 1409.7 2078.4 2411.1 891.9 1519.2 20071 -677.7 1438.7 2116.4 2441.1 902.7 1538.4 20072 -686.6 1468.2 2154.7 2471.4 913.7 1557.7 20073 -695.6 1498.2 2193.7 2502.0 924.7 1577.3 20074 -704.7 1528.7 2233.4 2532.9 935.8 1597.1
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19991 9315.5 6313.0 767.4 1849.2 3696.4 19992 9392.6 6410.0 803.6 1867.9 3738.5 19993 9502.2 6476.7 820.7 1873.7 3782.3 19994 9671.1 6557.1 826.4 1915.7 3815.0 20001 9695.6 6661.1 872.8 1917.2 3871.1 20002 9847.9 6703.5 851.3 1944.0 3908.2 20003 9836.6 6768.0 863.8 1954.9 3949.3 20004 9887.8 6824.9 865.4 1972.7 3986.8 20011 9882.2 6833.2 869.1 1974.5 3989.6 20012 9866.4 6872.0 889.6 1969.1 4013.3 20013 9834.6 6903.8 891.1 1983.4 4029.3 20014 9883.6 7010.2 946.6 2006.2 4057.4 20021 9997.9 7081.5 950.3 2035.9 4095.3 20022 10045.1 7126.2 951.4 2037.8 4137.0 20023 10128.4 7161.3 963.1 2038.8 4159.4 20024 10160.8 7201.0 963.8 2061.8 4175.4 20031 10210.4 7246.2 965.0 2090.5 4190.7 20032 10288.3 7310.3 1005.1 2096.8 4208.4 20033 10493.1 7440.6 1069.1 2134.3 4237.2 20034 10597.1 7488.0 1071.4 2157.6 4259.0 20041 10732.1 7560.9 1085.2 2176.3 4299.4 20042 10829.0 7632.9 1100.2 2194.1 4338.7 20043 10913.4 7703.5 1115.3 2211.5 4376.7 20044 10993.4 7772.8 1130.3 2228.4 4414.1 20051 11068.1 7840.6 1144.8 2244.8 4451.0 20052 11142.3 7907.0 1158.9 2260.7 4487.4 20053 11216.9 7972.0 1172.4 2276.2 4523.4 20054 11292.2 8036.1 1185.6 2291.2 4559.4 20061 11368.4 8099.7 1198.5 2305.8 4595.3 20062 11445.5 8162.9 1211.3 2320.3 4631.3 20063 11523.4 8226.1 1223.9 2334.6 4667.6 20064 11602.2 8289.5 1236.5 2348.9 4704.1 20071 11681.9 8353.3 1249.2 2363.2 4740.9 20072 11762.4 8417.6 1262.0 2377.5 4778.1 20073 11843.9 8482.6 1275.0 2391.9 4815.8 20074 11926.4 8548.5 1288.1 2406.4 4853.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19991 1611.6 1532.1 1094.0 438.1 79.5 19992 1610.8 1569.1 1127.3 441.8 41.7 19993 1649.7 1598.9 1154.4 444.5 50.8 19994 1710.7 1607.2 1157.3 449.9 103.5 20001 1677.9 1651.0 1196.6 454.4 26.9 20002 1788.2 1688.9 1238.5 450.4 99.3 20003 1742.6 1686.4 1245.2 441.2 56.2 20004 1732.9 1689.4 1247.8 441.6 43.5 20011 1682.3 1678.0 1233.6 444.4 4.3 20012 1609.1 1637.9 1189.4 448.5 -28.8 20013 1571.6 1615.6 1163.7 451.9 -44.0 20014 1494.1 1569.6 1120.6 449.0 -75.5 20021 1535.4 1558.9 1100.4 458.5 -23.5 20022 1552.5 1560.5 1092.1 468.4 -8.0 20023 1595.1 1562.3 1089.1 473.2 32.8 20024 1591.4 1569.9 1088.9 481.0 21.5 20031 1575.3 1573.7 1087.3 486.4 1.6 20032 1593.0 1597.5 1105.8 491.7 -4.5 20033 1647.1 1656.2 1139.5 516.7 -9.1 20034 1694.5 1688.4 1158.6 529.8 6.1 20041 1768.1 1716.0 1185.5 530.6 52.1 20042 1811.3 1752.4 1216.6 535.7 59.0 20043 1839.9 1781.5 1241.6 539.9 58.3 20044 1863.4 1807.6 1264.3 543.3 55.8 20051 1879.7 1828.8 1283.0 545.7 50.9 20052 1894.7 1847.6 1300.2 547.4 47.1 20053 1909.5 1865.2 1316.5 548.7 44.3 20054 1924.5 1882.0 1332.5 549.5 42.5 20061 1939.9 1898.4 1348.1 550.3 41.5 20062 1955.7 1914.8 1363.6 551.2 40.9 20063 1971.8 1931.1 1378.9 552.2 40.7 20064 1988.1 1947.5 1394.0 553.5 40.6 20071 2004.7 1964.0 1408.9 555.1 40.7 20072 2021.5 1980.7 1423.7 557.1 40.8 20073 2038.5 1997.6 1438.2 559.4 40.9 20074 2055.7 2014.6 1452.6 562.0 41.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19991 -262.1 980.1 1242.2 1662.1 19992 -295.2 991.2 1286.4 1672.3 19993 -313.9 1017.4 1331.3 1693.0 19994 -313.8 1044.1 1357.9 1720.1 20001 -350.6 1060.9 1411.5 1707.3 20002 -374.5 1092.0 1466.5 1730.5 20003 -395.6 1120.0 1515.6 1721.5 20004 -397.2 1112.3 1509.5 1727.1 20011 -385.9 1099.6 1485.5 1751.5 20012 -391.7 1060.9 1452.6 1776.4 20013 -401.3 1010.6 1411.9 1758.1 20014 -413.3 984.8 1398.1 1789.7 20021 -431.3 995.4 1426.7 1810.2 20022 -467.6 1016.5 1484.1 1827.9 20023 -471.9 1027.3 1499.2 1839.0 20024 -511.5 1017.5 1529.0 1871.1 20031 -490.1 1012.4 1502.5 1869.3 20032 -526.1 1009.6 1535.7 1903.3 20033 -505.2 1033.7 1538.9 1911.6 20034 -500.7 1079.9 1580.6 1915.6 20041 -520.8 1095.7 1616.5 1924.1 20042 -547.5 1111.8 1659.3 1932.6 20043 -570.9 1128.1 1699.0 1941.2 20044 -592.3 1144.7 1736.9 1949.8 20051 -610.5 1161.5 1772.0 1958.5 20052 -626.4 1178.5 1804.9 1967.3 20053 -640.4 1195.8 1836.2 1976.1 20054 -653.1 1213.4 1866.5 1984.9 20061 -664.7 1231.2 1895.9 1993.8 20062 -675.6 1249.2 1924.8 2002.7 20063 -685.9 1267.6 1953.5 2011.7 20064 -695.9 1286.2 1982.1 2020.8 20071 -705.7 1305.1 2010.8 2029.9 20072 -715.5 1324.2 2039.7 2039.1 20073 -725.2 1343.6 2068.8 2048.3 20074 -735.1 1363.3 2098.4 2057.6
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19991 1810.9 864.1 206.3 97.5 643.0 19992 1836.2 879.7 211.4 98.0 647.1 19993 1866.2 899.5 213.9 100.2 652.6 19994 1918.1 928.7 220.2 105.3 663.9 20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2053.6 1051.2 178.1 110.6 713.7 20012 2050.8 1050.2 176.5 109.6 714.5 20013 1869.7 887.0 160.2 106.8 715.7 20014 1968.0 1011.5 132.4 106.6 717.5 20021 1827.9 849.0 143.4 105.2 730.3 20022 1836.5 836.6 156.4 107.4 736.1 20023 1826.3 823.6 157.5 106.6 738.6 20024 1825.4 815.4 161.7 106.4 741.9 20031 1826.5 794.3 171.0 106.1 755.1 20032 1827.6 794.6 167.9 106.6 758.5 20033 1748.5 696.3 182.8 106.3 763.1 20034 1830.0 764.3 189.6 109.9 766.2 20041 1901.3 808.5 200.4 111.5 780.9 20042 1940.1 827.4 204.0 113.1 795.5 20043 1976.9 846.2 206.1 114.8 809.9 20044 2013.4 864.9 208.0 116.5 824.0 20051 2048.9 883.2 209.8 118.2 837.7 20052 2084.2 901.4 212.1 119.8 851.0 20053 2119.7 919.3 214.9 121.5 863.9 20054 2155.1 937.1 218.3 123.2 876.6 20061 2190.8 954.9 222.0 124.9 889.0 20062 2226.6 972.7 226.0 126.5 901.4 20063 2262.6 990.6 230.2 128.2 913.6 20064 2298.9 1008.7 234.5 129.9 925.8 20071 2335.6 1027.0 238.9 131.6 938.1 20072 2372.6 1045.6 243.4 133.3 950.3 20073 2410.2 1064.5 247.9 135.0 962.7 20074 2448.3 1083.8 252.5 136.8 975.2
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19991 1731.5 467.0 730.3 721.7 8.6 227.0 266.7 40.5 79.4 19992 1731.5 463.9 734.7 724.5 10.2 223.7 265.4 43.8 104.7 19993 1758.6 477.6 735.7 726.9 8.8 237.6 262.1 45.6 107.6 19994 1795.5 491.8 749.5 730.4 19.1 243.2 264.4 46.6 122.6 20001 1786.4 485.7 752.0 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 767.7 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 774.7 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 796.1 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1897.6 520.0 810.1 803.0 7.1 265.7 254.2 47.6 156.0 20012 1921.9 527.0 824.3 816.3 8.0 278.5 244.1 48.0 128.9 20013 1949.8 531.1 843.3 834.6 8.7 273.7 235.1 66.6 -80.1 20014 1970.8 548.6 864.7 850.5 14.2 287.3 225.3 44.9 -2.8 20021 2016.8 569.4 902.4 879.7 22.7 290.6 212.2 42.2 -188.9 20022 2068.6 582.6 917.7 907.8 9.9 304.6 221.3 42.4 -232.1 20023 2069.3 590.4 923.7 914.0 9.7 306.8 210.9 37.5 -243.0 20024 2121.8 620.7 936.1 920.9 15.2 316.4 209.3 39.3 -296.4 20031 2147.0 635.9 958.0 936.9 21.1 310.8 198.8 44.9 -320.5 20032 2252.1 668.9 975.1 954.9 20.2 345.5 203.3 57.9 -424.5 20033 2247.9 672.3 984.0 965.0 19.0 346.3 195.8 49.5 -499.4 20034 2253.7 675.2 987.2 971.0 16.2 353.3 188.8 49.2 -423.7 20041 2293.4 682.7 1006.1 989.9 16.2 361.8 193.6 49.2 -392.1 20042 2334.0 690.6 1025.3 1009.1 16.2 370.5 198.4 49.2 -394.0 20043 2375.6 698.9 1044.9 1028.7 16.2 379.5 203.2 49.2 -398.7 20044 2418.0 707.4 1064.9 1048.7 16.2 388.6 207.9 49.2 -404.6 20051 2461.2 716.2 1085.3 1069.1 16.2 398.0 212.6 49.2 -412.4 20052 2505.3 725.1 1106.0 1089.8 16.2 407.6 217.4 49.2 -421.0 20053 2550.2 734.1 1127.2 1111.0 16.2 417.4 222.2 49.2 -430.5 20054 2595.8 743.3 1148.8 1132.6 16.2 427.5 227.1 49.2 -440.7 20061 2642.2 752.5 1170.8 1154.6 16.2 437.8 232.0 49.2 -451.4 20062 2689.4 761.7 1193.2 1177.0 16.2 448.4 236.9 49.2 -462.8 20063 2737.5 771.0 1216.1 1199.9 16.2 459.2 242.0 49.2 -474.9 20064 2786.4 780.4 1239.4 1223.2 16.2 470.2 247.2 49.2 -487.5 20071 2836.3 789.9 1263.1 1246.9 16.2 481.6 252.4 49.2 -500.7 20072 2887.1 799.4 1287.4 1271.2 16.2 493.2 257.9 49.2 -514.4 20073 2938.8 809.1 1312.1 1295.9 16.2 505.1 263.4 49.2 -528.7 20074 2991.6 818.8 1337.2 1321.0 16.2 517.3 269.2 49.2 -543.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19991 1082.6 207.6 34.9 603.3 9.8 227.0 19992 1092.6 210.4 35.6 613.2 9.7 223.7 19993 1123.0 216.0 35.9 623.8 9.7 237.6 19994 1146.6 223.8 36.8 632.9 9.9 243.2 20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 250.9 31.6 674.2 12.6 265.7 20012 1259.4 258.4 31.3 678.1 13.1 278.5 20013 1233.9 233.9 29.3 683.6 13.4 273.7 20014 1254.2 231.6 28.5 693.2 13.6 287.3 20021 1253.5 220.9 29.0 699.5 13.5 290.6 20022 1265.8 207.1 31.3 709.3 13.5 304.6 20023 1301.1 229.4 31.6 719.8 13.5 306.8 20024 1314.2 230.3 32.5 721.4 13.6 316.4 20031 1298.3 215.1 33.9 724.8 13.7 310.8 20032 1333.8 205.6 35.0 733.9 13.8 345.5 20033 1384.0 239.7 38.8 745.3 13.9 346.3 20034 1402.8 240.0 40.2 755.3 14.0 353.3 20041 1429.6 244.9 42.5 766.3 14.1 361.8 20042 1455.3 249.7 43.3 777.5 14.2 370.5 20043 1481.0 254.5 43.7 788.9 14.3 379.5 20044 1507.0 259.3 44.2 800.5 14.4 388.6 20051 1533.1 264.0 44.5 812.1 14.5 398.0 20052 1559.5 268.6 45.0 823.6 14.6 407.6 20053 1586.1 273.2 45.6 835.1 14.7 417.4 20054 1613.0 277.7 46.3 846.6 14.9 427.5 20061 1640.2 282.2 47.1 858.1 15.0 437.8 20062 1667.7 286.7 48.0 869.6 15.1 448.4 20063 1695.5 291.2 48.9 881.1 15.2 459.2 20064 1723.7 295.8 49.8 892.6 15.3 470.2 20071 1752.4 300.4 50.7 904.3 15.4 481.6 20072 1781.5 305.1 51.7 916.0 15.5 493.2 20073 1811.1 309.8 52.6 927.9 15.6 505.1 20074 1841.2 314.6 53.6 940.0 15.8 517.3
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19991 1033.7 834.3 214.2 -2.7 1.7 -10.4 0.0 48.9 19992 1047.2 850.8 212.0 -3.5 1.8 -10.3 0.0 45.4 19993 1071.1 867.3 219.8 -4.2 1.8 -10.0 0.0 51.9 19994 1091.1 883.3 223.9 -4.8 1.9 -9.4 0.0 55.5 20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 0.0 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 0.0 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 0.0 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 0.0 35.4 20011 1199.0 951.1 248.7 -0.9 1.9 2.0 0.0 36.0 20012 1234.8 963.3 265.2 -0.5 1.9 8.7 0.0 24.6 20013 1222.2 971.1 253.0 0.2 2.0 -0.1 0.0 11.7 20014 1257.3 978.8 280.9 1.0 2.0 -1.4 0.0 -3.1 20021 1261.0 984.8 279.5 2.1 2.1 -3.3 0.0 -7.5 20022 1277.8 999.5 282.0 3.4 2.1 -5.0 0.0 -12.0 20023 1294.5 1010.1 286.5 4.5 2.1 -4.5 0.0 6.6 20024 1314.5 1024.2 293.7 5.7 2.3 -6.8 0.0 -0.3 20031 1338.9 1045.8 294.2 7.5 2.3 -6.3 0.0 -40.6 20032 1348.4 1040.9 307.8 8.7 2.2 -6.8 0.0 -14.6 20033 1370.9 1046.3 324.0 9.6 2.1 -6.9 0.0 13.1 20034 1370.3 1048.4 317.3 11.0 2.0 -4.4 0.0 32.5 20041 1385.8 1060.4 320.7 11.1 2.0 -4.4 0.0 43.8 20042 1401.8 1073.1 323.9 11.2 2.0 -4.4 0.0 53.5 20043 1418.8 1086.5 327.5 11.2 2.0 -4.4 0.0 62.2 20044 1437.2 1100.3 331.9 11.3 2.0 -4.4 0.0 69.8 20051 1456.9 1114.5 337.3 11.4 2.0 -4.4 0.0 76.2 20052 1477.7 1129.0 343.6 11.5 2.0 -4.4 0.0 81.8 20053 1499.5 1143.7 350.6 11.6 2.0 -4.4 0.0 86.6 20054 1522.0 1158.6 358.1 11.7 2.0 -4.4 0.0 91.0 20061 1545.1 1173.6 366.1 11.8 2.0 -4.4 0.0 95.1 20062 1568.7 1188.7 374.5 11.8 2.0 -4.4 0.0 99.0 20063 1592.8 1204.0 383.3 11.9 2.0 -4.4 0.0 102.7 20064 1617.2 1219.4 392.3 12.0 2.0 -4.4 0.0 106.5 20071 1642.1 1234.9 401.5 12.1 2.0 -4.4 0.0 110.3 20072 1667.3 1250.5 411.0 12.2 2.0 -4.4 0.0 114.1 20073 1693.0 1266.3 420.8 12.3 2.0 -4.4 0.0 118.1 20074 1719.0 1282.3 430.7 12.4 2.0 -4.4 0.0 122.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19991 97.3 96.7 102.3 94.6 96.5 19992 97.7 97.3 101.9 95.8 97.1 19993 98.0 97.8 101.5 96.7 97.6 19994 98.4 98.4 100.9 97.6 98.3 20001 99.3 99.3 100.5 98.8 99.3 20002 99.7 99.8 100.3 99.7 99.7 20003 100.3 100.2 99.7 100.6 100.2 20004 100.7 100.7 99.5 100.9 100.8 20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.2 102.1 20012 102.2 102.1 98.4 102.2 102.9 20013 102.7 102.2 97.7 101.9 103.4 20014 103.1 102.3 97.1 100.8 104.2 20021 103.3 102.5 96.3 100.8 104.7 20022 103.7 103.2 95.6 102.2 105.5 20023 104.1 103.7 94.9 102.5 106.4 20024 104.6 104.2 94.1 102.8 107.2 20031 105.2 104.9 93.1 104.1 108.0 20032 105.4 105.0 92.2 103.5 108.7 20033 105.8 105.3 91.2 104.5 109.3 20034 106.2 105.5 90.3 104.6 109.7 20041 106.8 106.0 90.8 105.1 110.3 20042 107.4 106.5 91.2 105.7 110.8 20043 108.0 107.1 91.7 106.2 111.4 20044 108.7 107.7 92.3 106.8 112.1 20051 109.4 108.3 92.8 107.5 112.7 20052 110.1 108.9 93.3 108.1 113.4 20053 110.9 109.6 93.9 108.7 114.0 20054 111.6 110.2 94.4 109.3 114.7 20061 112.3 110.8 94.9 109.9 115.3 20062 113.0 111.4 95.5 110.6 116.0 20063 113.7 112.0 96.0 111.2 116.6 20064 114.4 112.6 96.5 111.8 117.3 20071 115.1 113.2 97.0 112.4 117.9 20072 115.8 113.8 97.6 113.0 118.5 20073 116.5 114.4 98.1 113.6 119.1 20074 117.2 115.0 98.6 114.2 119.8
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19991 98.9 100.6 94.4 98.0 94.0 94.8 19992 98.9 100.2 95.5 98.1 95.2 95.6 19993 98.8 99.7 96.2 98.3 96.6 96.5 19994 98.9 99.6 97.0 98.8 97.9 97.4 20001 99.5 99.8 98.7 99.5 99.3 99.0 20002 99.8 99.8 99.6 100.0 99.5 99.4 20003 100.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.5 100.5 20004 100.5 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.7 101.1 20011 100.5 99.7 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.8 20012 100.9 99.8 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.5 99.9 105.6 99.5 97.1 102.9 20014 101.6 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.6 103.3 20021 101.4 99.3 106.5 98.3 94.2 104.2 20022 101.3 98.9 106.7 99.0 96.6 105.0 20023 101.1 98.6 107.0 99.8 97.5 105.6 20024 101.6 98.7 108.2 100.0 97.7 106.0 20031 102.1 98.6 109.9 100.8 100.4 107.9 20032 102.0 98.3 110.5 101.0 99.3 107.9 20033 102.6 98.7 111.3 101.4 100.0 108.4 20034 103.5 99.2 113.0 102.1 100.3 108.5 20041 103.9 99.6 113.5 102.6 100.7 109.3 20042 104.4 100.2 114.1 103.2 101.0 110.1 20043 105.0 100.7 114.7 103.8 101.4 111.0 20044 105.5 101.3 115.4 104.4 101.8 111.8 20051 106.1 101.9 116.1 105.0 102.2 112.8 20052 106.7 102.5 116.7 105.7 102.5 113.7 20053 107.3 103.0 117.4 106.4 102.9 114.6 20054 107.9 103.6 118.1 107.0 103.3 115.6 20061 108.4 104.2 118.8 107.7 103.7 116.5 20062 109.0 104.8 119.4 108.3 104.1 117.4 20063 109.6 105.4 120.1 109.0 104.5 118.4 20064 110.2 106.0 120.7 109.6 104.9 119.3 20071 110.7 106.5 121.4 110.2 105.2 120.3 20072 111.3 107.1 122.0 110.9 105.6 121.2 20073 111.9 107.7 122.7 111.5 106.0 122.2 20074 112.4 108.2 123.3 112.1 106.4 123.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment