US Forecast: October 29, 2004
Forecast Period

2004:4--2008:4 (17 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 29, 2004.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2004:3. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: October 29, 2004, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). Even though all the NIPA data were revised at the end of 2003, no specification changes to the model seemed to be needed after reestimation. The NIPA tables at the end of this forecast memo are still in the old format (although using the revised data), but Appendix A has been completely updated using the new table formats.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2004:3.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2004:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.0       
COG           5.0                  4.0       
JG            1.0                 -1.1       
TRGS          8.0                  6.9       
TRSH         10.0                  6.3       
COS           3.0                  4.7       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0/6.0              5.2
PIM           2.5                  0.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. 8.0/6.0 for EX means an annual growth rate of 8.0 percent for 2004:4-2005:4 and 6.0 percent after that.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "solve" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 3.6, 3.1, 2.9, and 2.9 percent, respectively. These growth rates are enough to keep the unemployment rate roughly unchanged. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.5, 1.7, 1.8, and 1.8 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be around 3.1 percent for the entire forecast period.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.3 percent by the middle of 2005. It then rises to 3 percent by the end of 2006.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $400 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) This is smaller than many others expect. This is where experimenting may be useful. In particular, it may be that the above assumptions have underestimated future federal government spending. It could also mean, however, that people are too pessimistic about the deficit.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period. It is predicted to rise to over $700 billion in 2006.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change. At the time of this writing the election is 5 days away. What you do with tax rates will obviously depend on who wins.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be an oil price shock or further depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1130. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 930, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: October 29, 2004
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20001 9695.6 1.0 3871.1 6.0 1917.2 0.3 872.8 24.4 20002 9847.9 6.4 3908.2 3.9 1944.0 5.7 851.3 -9.5 20003 9836.6 -0.5 3949.3 4.3 1954.9 2.3 863.8 6.0 20004 9887.8 2.1 3986.8 3.9 1972.7 3.7 865.4 0.7 20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9993.5 3.4 4084.1 3.3 2029.3 3.8 937.8 -8.4 20022 10052.6 2.4 4119.8 3.5 2033.2 0.8 947.8 4.3 20023 10117.3 2.6 4143.8 2.4 2030.2 -0.6 979.3 14.0 20024 10135.9 0.7 4166.9 2.2 2056.7 5.3 973.4 -2.4 20031 10184.4 1.9 4188.7 2.1 2082.0 5.0 973.2 -0.1 20032 10287.4 4.1 4207.8 1.8 2090.1 1.6 1020.0 20.7 20033 10472.8 7.4 4228.0 1.9 2125.3 6.9 1059.6 16.5 20034 10580.7 4.2 4256.8 2.8 2152.0 5.1 1069.7 3.9 20041 10697.5 4.5 4291.8 3.3 2187.3 6.7 1075.5 2.2 20042 10784.7 3.3 4320.0 2.7 2188.0 0.1 1074.7 -0.3 20043 10883.4 3.7 4348.5 2.7 2209.2 3.9 1117.3 16.8 20044 10978.9 3.6 4380.6 3.0 2226.4 3.1 1130.2 4.7 20051 11062.6 3.1 4413.1 3.0 2242.8 3.0 1143.6 4.8 20052 11142.4 2.9 4445.5 3.0 2258.8 2.9 1157.0 4.8 20053 11222.8 2.9 4477.5 2.9 2274.2 2.8 1170.0 4.6 20054 11303.6 2.9 4509.4 2.9 2289.2 2.6 1182.6 4.4 20061 11379.5 2.7 4541.4 2.9 2303.5 2.5 1194.7 4.2 20062 11453.3 2.6 4573.4 2.8 2317.5 2.4 1206.3 3.9 20063 11526.9 2.6 4605.4 2.8 2331.0 2.4 1217.5 3.8 20064 11600.8 2.6 4637.5 2.8 2344.1 2.3 1228.3 3.6 20071 11675.4 2.6 4669.9 2.8 2357.0 2.2 1238.9 3.5 20072 11750.7 2.6 4702.5 2.8 2369.8 2.2 1249.4 3.4 20073 11827.0 2.6 4735.4 2.8 2382.5 2.2 1259.9 3.4 20074 11904.1 2.6 4768.7 2.8 2395.1 2.1 1270.5 3.4 20081 11982.1 2.6 4802.4 2.9 2407.8 2.1 1281.1 3.4 20082 12061.1 2.7 4836.5 2.9 2420.5 2.1 1292.0 3.4 20083 12141.0 2.7 4871.0 2.9 2433.4 2.1 1303.0 3.5 20084 12221.9 2.7 4906.0 2.9 2446.3 2.1 1314.3 3.5
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20001 383.7 1.0 998.6 16.2 26.9 1411.5 16.7 20002 380.3 -3.5 1036.3 16.0 99.3 1466.5 16.5 20003 372.5 -7.9 1048.2 4.7 56.2 1515.6 14.1 20004 372.8 0.3 1067.1 7.4 43.5 1509.5 -1.6 20011 380.5 8.5 1036.9 -10.9 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 386.0 5.9 1004.1 -12.0 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 387.5 1.6 984.6 -7.5 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 383.6 -3.9 938.0 -17.7 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 392.2 9.2 915.8 -9.1 -7.4 1436.5 12.5 20022 403.4 12.0 887.4 -11.8 7.9 1475.9 11.4 20023 406.2 2.8 880.8 -2.9 22.7 1495.3 5.4 20024 410.5 4.3 880.7 0.0 23.8 1529.8 9.6 20031 418.5 8.1 886.5 2.7 9.6 1522.3 -1.9 20032 428.3 9.6 905.6 8.9 -17.6 1531.7 2.5 20033 450.6 22.6 935.3 13.8 -3.5 1542.5 2.9 20034 460.9 9.4 949.5 6.2 8.6 1604.5 17.1 20041 465.5 4.1 953.0 1.5 40.0 1645.5 10.6 20042 485.1 17.9 993.1 17.9 61.1 1695.1 12.6 20043 488.8 3.1 1020.8 11.7 48.1 1726.8 7.7 20044 489.7 0.7 1044.0 9.4 58.4 1762.5 8.5 20051 489.4 -0.2 1060.9 6.7 57.2 1791.9 6.8 20052 488.3 -0.9 1078.0 6.6 52.4 1821.0 6.6 20053 486.7 -1.3 1094.6 6.3 48.8 1848.9 6.3 20054 484.6 -1.7 1110.9 6.1 46.2 1876.1 6.0 20061 482.1 -2.0 1126.2 5.6 45.5 1902.4 5.7 20062 479.6 -2.1 1140.5 5.2 43.6 1927.8 5.5 20063 477.1 -2.0 1154.3 4.9 41.6 1952.7 5.3 20064 474.9 -1.9 1167.4 4.6 40.2 1977.1 5.1 20071 472.9 -1.7 1180.0 4.4 39.3 2001.3 5.0 20072 471.2 -1.4 1192.2 4.2 38.7 2025.4 4.9 20073 470.0 -1.1 1204.2 4.1 38.5 2049.7 4.9 20074 469.1 -0.7 1215.9 4.0 38.5 2074.3 4.9 20081 468.7 -0.4 1227.5 3.8 38.6 2099.2 4.9 20082 468.7 0.0 1238.8 3.7 38.7 2124.6 4.9 20083 469.0 0.3 1250.0 3.7 38.9 2150.5 5.0 20084 469.7 0.6 1261.0 3.6 39.2 2176.9 5.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20001 3.6 3.1 13.5 10.1 20002 1.7 2.1 3.9 1.8 20003 2.1 1.5 9.2 7.6 20004 1.6 1.8 5.5 3.7 20011 3.3 3.1 8.1 4.8 20012 3.3 3.4 2.7 -0.6 20013 1.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 20014 2.0 1.4 4.5 3.1 20021 1.0 0.7 3.4 2.7 20022 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.2 20023 1.5 1.6 1.2 -0.4 20024 2.0 1.9 1.5 -0.4 20031 2.9 2.0 5.7 3.6 20032 1.1 0.5 9.2 8.7 20033 1.3 1.2 5.3 4.0 20034 1.6 1.2 2.8 1.6 20041 2.6 2.6 2.0 -0.6 20042 3.2 3.1 5.2 2.0 20043 1.3 1.9 2.4 0.5 20044 3.1 3.1 4.5 1.4 20051 3.1 3.1 4.5 1.4 20052 3.1 3.1 4.6 1.4 20053 3.1 3.1 4.6 1.4 20054 3.1 3.1 4.6 1.5 20061 3.2 3.1 4.6 1.5 20062 3.2 3.1 4.7 1.5 20063 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.5 20064 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 20071 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 20072 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20073 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20074 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20081 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20082 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20083 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.7 20084 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1378.1 -6.9 64.6 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1381.2 0.9 66.1 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1381.8 0.2 61.7 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.7 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1402.5 4.3 65.4 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1429.2 7.8 66.9 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.0 16.6 71.2 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.3 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1525.6 -5.0 68.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1549.0 6.3 69.9 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1591.9 11.6 70.3 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.5 4.0 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1650.9 11.3 76.7 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1700.2 12.5 77.7 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1714.4 3.4 78.4 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1741.0 6.4 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1787.2 11.0 77.2 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1821.3 7.9 83.9 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1834.8 3.0 84.6 20044 1.7 5.5 5.8 1877.0 9.5 84.4 20051 1.8 5.3 5.7 1920.3 9.6 84.5 20052 2.0 5.3 5.7 1966.3 9.9 84.7 20053 2.3 5.2 5.7 2009.5 9.1 84.7 20054 2.5 5.2 5.7 2051.5 8.6 84.6 20061 2.6 5.2 5.7 2093.1 8.4 84.4 20062 2.7 5.2 5.8 2135.5 8.3 84.4 20063 2.9 5.2 5.8 2177.7 8.1 84.3 20064 3.0 5.2 5.9 2220.1 8.0 84.2 20071 3.1 5.3 5.9 2262.7 7.9 84.1 20072 3.1 5.3 6.0 2305.8 7.8 84.1 20073 3.2 5.3 6.1 2349.2 7.7 84.1 20074 3.3 5.3 6.1 2393.0 7.7 84.1 20081 3.3 5.4 6.2 2437.1 7.6 84.1 20082 3.4 5.4 6.2 2481.7 7.5 84.2 20083 3.4 5.4 6.3 2526.7 7.5 84.3 20084 3.5 5.5 6.3 2572.1 7.4 84.4
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20001 4.0 -0.5 -0.4 2.9 2.4 0.6 5.8 20002 3.9 -0.5 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 5.6 20003 4.0 0.3 -1.9 1.0 0.4 -0.6 5.8 20004 3.9 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.0 1.9 5.6 20011 4.2 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.0 1.0 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.4 -0.4 -1.9 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 0.1 -0.2 3.2 -1.9 -0.8 6.9 20014 5.6 0.6 0.5 4.2 -3.3 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.2 -0.7 0.5 -2.4 -0.6 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.2 4.9 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 0.0 -0.5 4.9 -0.3 1.7 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.5 8.6 20031 5.8 -1.0 0.1 1.2 -0.9 0.2 8.5 20032 6.1 2.0 1.0 2.9 -0.3 0.6 9.0 20033 6.1 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.7 0.2 9.0 20034 5.9 1.0 -0.4 2.3 0.7 2.1 8.6 20041 5.6 -1.1 -1.6 4.2 0.7 1.2 8.3 20042 5.6 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.4 1.2 8.2 20043 5.5 1.2 1.1 3.5 0.9 2.3 8.1 20044 5.6 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.5 0.8 8.2 20051 5.6 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.7 1.1 8.3 20052 5.6 0.5 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 8.3 20053 5.5 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.2 8.3 20054 5.5 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.7 1.2 8.3 20061 5.5 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 8.3 20062 5.5 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.5 1.1 8.3 20063 5.5 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.1 8.4 20064 5.6 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.0 8.4 20071 5.6 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.2 1.0 8.5 20072 5.6 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.2 1.0 8.6 20073 5.7 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 8.6 20074 5.7 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 8.7 20081 5.7 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.0 8.8 20082 5.7 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.0 8.8 20083 5.7 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.0 8.9 20084 5.8 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.0 8.9
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20001 3124.2 585.7 -8.2 2.5 -0.8 352.9 212.8 56.0 20002 -2961.3 589.7 2.8 2.5 8.2 370.8 181.5 59.8 20003 -228.6 560.4 -18.4 2.7 -0.6 413.7 191.3 48.9 20004 -5198.3 542.4 -12.2 2.0 3.7 408.5 172.6 35.4 20011 -7949.3 552.0 7.3 2.0 -1.7 401.5 156.6 32.6 20012 3003.6 562.0 7.4 1.2 5.1 366.9 123.7 25.8 20013 -8943.8 484.7 -44.7 3.6 1.4 343.7 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5623.4 518.8 31.3 0.6 4.7 332.4 -4.9 -30.6 20021 172.0 547.3 23.9 2.8 3.9 413.8 -208.5 -28.8 20022 -6680.8 581.1 27.1 2.8 1.6 444.9 -251.7 -23.7 20023 -7858.1 610.8 22.1 1.7 3.9 450.7 -255.1 -21.3 20024 3379.8 652.9 30.6 1.2 0.9 484.1 -302.7 -26.1 20031 -1217.9 646.9 -3.6 1.0 2.5 525.1 -281.6 -48.8 20032 6007.8 691.9 30.9 1.2 6.1 509.8 -364.3 -5.6 20033 1800.7 754.7 41.6 2.0 7.2 495.1 -433.0 6.4 20034 6993.5 852.8 63.1 1.4 3.4 476.8 -379.2 35.3 20041 1455.9 889.1 18.1 1.1 3.0 547.1 -391.1 11.7 20042 623.1 915.5 12.4 1.3 2.7 618.9 -382.7 18.3 20043 -1040.0 882.7 -13.6 0.4 2.8 640.7 -374.4 16.7 20044 1714.0 914.4 15.1 0.5 1.8 658.0 -380.3 18.4 20051 1566.5 933.9 8.8 0.5 1.2 668.3 -388.8 19.6 20052 1482.6 952.8 8.3 0.5 1.1 677.8 -398.3 20.7 20053 1453.5 973.7 9.1 0.5 1.1 685.6 -408.0 21.6 20054 1459.8 996.0 9.5 0.5 1.2 692.0 -417.8 22.5 20061 1452.2 1016.3 8.4 0.5 1.1 703.4 -429.1 22.9 20062 1454.3 1037.1 8.4 0.5 1.2 713.7 -441.3 22.9 20063 1461.9 1059.0 8.7 0.5 1.3 723.2 -454.1 22.6 20064 1477.0 1082.3 9.1 0.6 1.4 731.9 -467.4 22.1 20071 1495.4 1106.6 9.3 0.6 1.5 740.1 -481.3 21.3 20072 1514.2 1131.9 9.5 0.6 1.5 748.0 -495.5 20.5 20073 1532.9 1158.0 9.5 0.6 1.6 755.8 -510.1 19.7 20074 1552.8 1184.7 9.6 0.7 1.6 763.7 -525.0 18.8 20081 1574.0 1212.0 9.5 0.7 1.7 771.6 -540.2 17.9 20082 1596.2 1239.7 9.5 0.8 1.7 779.8 -555.7 17.0 20083 1619.1 1267.9 9.4 0.8 1.7 788.2 -571.5 16.2 20084 1642.9 1296.4 9.3 0.8 1.7 796.8 -587.6 15.4
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20001 -30.2 5.2 6.6 743.2 7.2 6.0 20002 28.8 -3.4 12.3 758.6 8.5 0.7 20003 -9.7 1.1 10.7 763.3 2.5 4.2 20004 0.3 2.5 -2.7 771.5 4.4 0.7 20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 12.2 7.5 4.7 884.3 14.9 -1.8 20022 24.1 -1.0 11.0 910.7 12.5 10.5 20023 3.3 3.9 3.1 913.9 1.4 3.5 20024 17.8 2.2 -4.3 915.7 0.8 0.5 20031 -4.3 0.4 -1.5 927.6 5.3 11.3 20032 42.7 -1.8 -1.6 943.3 6.9 -4.3 20033 -6.6 5.4 11.3 950.6 3.1 2.6 20034 9.5 -2.8 17.4 958.4 3.3 1.0 20041 12.1 -0.9 7.3 972.0 5.8 9.6 20042 5.7 4.7 7.3 978.7 2.8 6.4 20043 8.1 -4.2 5.1 988.1 3.9 5.5 20044 5.0 3.0 8.0 1007.3 8.0 2.5 20051 5.0 3.0 8.0 1026.9 8.0 2.5 20052 5.0 3.0 8.0 1046.8 8.0 2.5 20053 5.0 3.0 8.0 1067.1 8.0 2.5 20054 5.0 3.0 8.0 1087.9 8.0 2.5 20061 5.0 3.0 6.0 1109.0 8.0 2.5 20062 5.0 3.0 6.0 1130.6 8.0 2.5 20063 5.0 3.0 6.0 1152.5 8.0 2.5 20064 5.0 3.0 6.0 1174.9 8.0 2.5 20071 5.0 3.0 6.0 1197.7 8.0 2.5 20072 5.0 3.0 6.0 1221.0 8.0 2.5 20073 5.0 3.0 6.0 1244.7 8.0 2.5 20074 5.0 3.0 6.0 1268.9 8.0 2.5 20081 5.0 3.0 6.0 1293.6 8.0 2.5 20082 5.0 3.0 6.0 1318.7 8.0 2.5 20083 5.0 3.0 6.0 1344.3 8.0 2.5 20084 5.0 3.0 6.0 1370.4 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1814.6 846.9 131.4 105.0 731.3 20022 1820.4 835.6 143.2 107.0 734.6 20023 1812.3 824.4 146.9 106.7 734.3 20024 1810.6 817.7 152.2 105.8 734.9 20031 1849.5 809.6 183.1 109.1 747.7 20032 1859.1 811.6 183.1 110.4 754.0 20033 1775.1 709.2 194.3 110.0 761.6 20034 1858.5 772.5 204.9 111.6 769.5 20041 1874.7 768.3 207.9 110.6 787.9 20042 1906.4 779.9 219.5 110.6 796.4 20043 1923.0 793.1 214.5 110.9 804.5 20044 1962.8 812.6 219.9 112.6 817.6 20051 2000.6 832.0 223.5 114.3 830.7 20052 2038.5 851.5 227.0 116.1 843.9 20053 2077.1 871.3 230.8 117.8 857.2 20054 2116.5 891.5 234.8 119.5 870.6 20061 2155.3 911.7 238.5 121.3 883.8 20062 2194.1 932.0 242.2 123.0 896.8 20063 2233.2 952.4 246.2 124.8 909.7 20064 2272.7 973.1 250.4 126.6 922.6 20071 2312.7 994.1 254.7 128.3 935.5 20072 2353.3 1015.5 259.2 130.1 948.4 20073 2394.7 1037.5 263.8 131.9 961.5 20074 2436.8 1059.9 268.5 133.8 974.6 20081 2479.8 1082.9 273.3 135.6 988.0 20082 2523.7 1106.5 278.2 137.5 1001.4 20083 2568.5 1130.7 283.2 139.4 1015.1 20084 2614.2 1155.7 288.2 141.4 1029.0
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20001 1786.4 485.7 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2023.1 570.7 884.3 23.0 291.9 212.5 40.7 -208.5 20022 2072.1 586.3 910.7 10.1 304.2 221.4 39.4 -251.7 20023 2067.4 593.4 913.9 9.6 305.4 210.9 34.2 -255.1 20024 2113.3 620.3 915.7 15.0 316.3 209.3 36.7 -302.7 20031 2131.1 634.3 927.6 21.2 314.3 199.2 35.9 -281.6 20032 2223.4 665.7 943.3 18.0 345.1 201.3 48.6 -364.3 20033 2208.1 663.0 950.6 18.6 343.0 193.1 39.8 -433.0 20034 2237.7 671.3 958.4 15.8 357.2 196.8 38.2 -379.2 20041 2265.8 691.1 972.0 28.0 346.0 195.1 35.1 -391.1 20042 2289.1 700.3 978.7 17.6 351.9 204.9 34.2 -382.7 20043 2297.4 713.0 988.1 16.8 342.1 203.5 33.9 -374.4 20044 2343.0 725.0 1007.3 16.8 348.7 211.3 33.9 -380.3 20051 2389.5 737.1 1026.9 16.8 355.5 219.3 33.9 -388.8 20052 2436.8 749.5 1046.8 16.8 362.4 227.4 33.9 -398.3 20053 2485.1 762.1 1067.1 16.8 369.5 235.6 33.9 -408.0 20054 2534.3 775.0 1087.9 16.8 376.6 244.0 33.9 -417.8 20061 2584.4 788.2 1109.0 16.8 384.0 252.6 33.9 -429.1 20062 2635.4 801.6 1130.6 16.8 391.4 261.1 33.9 -441.3 20063 2687.3 815.2 1152.5 16.8 399.0 269.8 33.9 -454.1 20064 2740.1 829.1 1174.9 16.8 406.8 278.6 33.9 -467.4 20071 2793.9 843.2 1197.7 16.8 414.7 287.6 33.9 -481.3 20072 2848.8 857.5 1221.0 16.8 422.7 296.9 33.9 -495.5 20073 2904.7 872.1 1244.7 16.8 430.9 306.3 33.9 -510.1 20074 2961.8 886.9 1268.9 16.8 439.3 316.0 33.9 -525.0 20081 3020.0 901.9 1293.6 16.8 447.9 326.0 33.9 -540.2 20082 3079.4 917.3 1318.7 16.8 456.6 336.2 33.9 -555.7 20083 3140.0 932.9 1344.3 16.8 465.4 346.7 33.9 -571.5 20084 3201.8 948.7 1370.4 16.8 474.5 357.5 33.9 -587.6
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1254.2 218.8 28.5 700.6 14.4 291.9 20022 1277.0 216.5 30.9 710.9 14.5 304.2 20023 1296.3 222.3 31.9 722.1 14.6 305.4 20024 1310.5 222.6 33.3 723.6 14.7 316.3 20031 1308.2 216.1 31.9 731.2 14.7 314.3 20032 1354.1 219.0 32.9 742.2 14.9 345.1 20033 1379.8 232.5 35.4 753.8 15.1 343.0 20034 1412.2 236.9 37.6 765.0 15.5 357.2 20041 1415.4 238.3 38.5 776.6 16.0 346.0 20042 1447.6 249.1 40.5 789.7 16.4 351.9 20043 1446.1 254.3 39.6 793.3 16.8 342.1 20044 1471.3 259.5 40.6 805.5 16.9 348.7 20051 1496.3 264.6 41.2 817.9 17.1 355.5 20052 1521.5 269.8 41.9 830.3 17.2 362.4 20053 1547.0 275.0 42.6 842.7 17.3 369.5 20054 1572.8 280.3 43.3 855.1 17.4 376.6 20061 1598.7 285.6 44.0 867.6 17.6 384.0 20062 1624.8 290.8 44.7 880.2 17.7 391.4 20063 1651.2 296.1 45.4 892.8 17.8 399.0 20064 1677.8 301.5 46.2 905.4 18.0 406.8 20071 1704.8 306.9 47.0 918.1 18.1 414.7 20072 1732.1 312.5 47.8 930.9 18.2 422.7 20073 1759.9 318.1 48.7 943.8 18.4 430.9 20074 1788.1 323.8 49.5 956.9 18.5 439.3 20081 1816.8 329.7 50.4 970.2 18.6 447.9 20082 1846.0 335.7 51.3 983.7 18.8 456.6 20083 1875.8 341.8 52.2 997.4 18.9 465.4 20084 1906.2 348.1 53.2 1011.3 19.0 474.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1283.0 996.2 278.1 11.7 2.1 -0.9 -28.8 20022 1300.7 1011.5 280.2 13.6 2.1 -2.5 -23.7 20023 1317.6 1023.8 282.6 15.1 2.1 -1.8 -21.3 20024 1336.6 1034.6 291.9 16.4 2.3 -4.0 -26.1 20031 1357.0 1054.8 291.8 16.2 2.5 -3.3 -48.8 20032 1359.7 1051.8 296.6 16.9 2.4 -3.2 -5.6 20033 1373.4 1061.0 301.3 18.1 2.5 -4.5 6.4 20034 1376.9 1066.3 296.5 19.2 2.6 -2.5 35.3 20041 1403.7 1079.8 309.0 20.2 2.5 -2.8 11.7 20042 1429.3 1091.8 322.2 20.1 2.6 -2.2 18.3 20043 1429.4 1103.5 309.3 20.7 2.7 -1.4 16.7 20044 1452.9 1119.5 316.6 20.9 2.7 -1.4 18.4 20051 1476.7 1135.6 324.2 21.0 2.7 -1.4 19.6 20052 1500.8 1152.1 331.7 21.2 2.7 -1.4 20.7 20053 1525.4 1168.9 339.2 21.3 2.7 -1.4 21.6 20054 1550.3 1186.0 346.9 21.5 2.7 -1.4 22.5 20061 1575.8 1203.5 354.8 21.6 2.7 -1.4 22.9 20062 1601.9 1221.2 363.0 21.8 2.7 -1.4 22.9 20063 1628.6 1239.2 371.5 22.0 2.7 -1.4 22.6 20064 1655.8 1257.5 380.3 22.1 2.7 -1.4 22.1 20071 1683.4 1276.0 389.3 22.3 2.7 -1.4 21.3 20072 1711.6 1294.7 398.5 22.5 2.7 -1.4 20.5 20073 1740.2 1313.7 407.9 22.6 2.7 -1.4 19.7 20074 1769.3 1333.0 417.6 22.8 2.7 -1.4 18.8 20081 1798.9 1352.6 427.4 23.0 2.7 -1.4 17.9 20082 1829.0 1372.5 437.5 23.1 2.7 -1.4 17.0 20083 1859.6 1392.6 447.8 23.3 2.7 -1.4 16.2 20084 1890.8 1413.1 458.3 23.5 2.7 -1.4 15.4
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20001 -115.5 -367.1 -27.3 352.9 217.8 -60.9 20002 -115.1 -340.8 -45.9 370.8 184.8 -53.8 20003 -89.6 -413.4 -42.6 413.7 197.3 -65.4 20004 -134.9 -354.8 -15.5 408.5 177.4 -80.7 20011 -147.5 -336.6 9.9 401.5 161.4 -88.7 20012 -197.0 -207.9 23.4 366.9 124.2 -109.5 20013 -43.0 -126.7 28.4 343.7 -82.2 -120.2 20014 -249.7 49.4 36.6 332.4 -5.4 -163.2 20021 -91.4 -25.9 78.6 413.8 -207.4 -167.6 20022 -106.8 -4.0 76.9 444.9 -252.0 -159.0 20023 -193.0 78.4 78.2 450.7 -255.8 -158.5 20024 -241.0 139.3 77.7 484.1 -296.9 -163.3 20031 -262.5 103.1 99.5 525.1 -279.2 -186.0 20032 -263.5 176.0 82.9 509.8 -365.5 -139.6 20033 -219.3 191.4 101.4 495.1 -434.8 -133.8 20034 -273.6 206.5 86.2 476.8 -394.5 -101.3 20041 -320.6 212.5 89.0 547.1 -404.3 -123.8 20042 -344.0 145.0 94.2 618.9 -388.5 -125.7 20043 -427.9 202.1 90.0 640.7 -378.3 -126.6 20044 -427.5 188.1 93.4 658.0 -384.8 -127.2 20051 -427.9 185.2 96.9 668.3 -394.0 -128.5 20052 -428.2 183.9 100.4 677.8 -404.0 -129.9 20053 -427.0 183.1 104.0 685.6 -414.3 -131.5 20054 -424.2 182.4 107.8 692.0 -424.8 -133.2 20061 -421.8 178.8 111.6 703.4 -436.7 -135.4 20062 -419.4 177.7 115.5 713.7 -449.5 -138.0 20063 -416.7 178.1 119.4 723.2 -463.0 -141.0 20064 -413.6 179.5 123.5 731.9 -477.0 -144.2 20071 -410.2 181.7 127.6 740.1 -491.5 -147.7 20072 -406.6 184.6 131.7 748.0 -506.4 -151.3 20073 -403.0 187.9 136.0 755.8 -521.7 -155.0 20074 -399.4 191.5 140.3 763.7 -537.4 -158.7 20081 -396.1 195.6 144.7 771.6 -553.3 -162.5 20082 -393.0 199.9 149.2 779.8 -569.6 -166.3 20083 -390.3 204.6 153.8 788.2 -586.2 -170.2 20084 -387.9 209.5 158.5 796.8 -603.0 -174.0 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9629.4 6613.9 876.9 1894.2 3842.8 20002 9822.8 6688.1 854.2 1938.3 3895.6 20003 9861.9 6783.8 861.3 1965.8 3956.7 20004 9953.6 6871.7 860.9 1990.5 4020.3 20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10338.2 7236.8 903.5 2046.8 4286.5 20022 10439.8 7339.2 907.5 2077.7 4354.0 20023 10546.5 7428.0 932.8 2081.3 4413.9 20024 10617.6 7500.1 920.8 2114.6 4464.7 20031 10744.6 7609.8 912.1 2167.5 4530.2 20032 10884.1 7696.3 946.8 2163.6 4585.9 20033 11116.7 7822.5 972.7 2219.2 4630.6 20034 11275.8 7914.8 971.1 2250.1 4693.6 20041 11472.5 8060.2 976.3 2316.6 4767.3 20042 11657.6 8153.9 975.5 2354.6 4823.8 20043 11803.5 8269.7 1006.1 2382.9 4880.7 20044 11998.2 8397.2 1025.2 2419.1 4952.9 20051 12182.6 8525.7 1044.9 2454.7 5026.1 20052 12365.0 8654.9 1064.9 2490.2 5099.8 20053 12550.4 8784.3 1084.7 2525.6 5174.0 20054 12738.7 8914.1 1104.4 2560.7 5249.0 20061 12924.2 9044.6 1123.9 2595.7 5325.0 20062 13109.7 9175.4 1143.1 2630.5 5401.8 20063 13296.5 9306.5 1162.1 2665.1 5479.3 20064 13485.5 9438.1 1181.0 2699.6 5557.5 20071 13676.9 9570.4 1199.7 2734.1 5636.6 20072 13871.0 9703.9 1218.6 2768.6 5716.7 20073 14067.9 9838.8 1237.6 2803.3 5797.9 20074 14267.9 9975.3 1256.9 2838.3 5880.2 20081 14471.0 10113.8 1276.4 2873.6 5963.8 20082 14677.4 10254.4 1296.3 2909.2 6048.8 20083 14887.2 10397.2 1316.7 2945.4 6135.2 20084 15100.7 10542.6 1337.5 2982.0 6223.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1672.3 1642.4 1193.9 448.5 29.9 20002 1781.6 1685.3 1236.5 448.8 96.3 20003 1749.0 1690.6 1247.5 443.1 58.4 20004 1738.9 1697.5 1250.3 447.2 41.4 20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1568.5 1577.4 1091.4 486.0 -8.9 20022 1571.1 1563.0 1061.2 501.8 8.1 20023 1581.3 1562.2 1055.0 507.2 19.1 20024 1589.9 1569.5 1048.1 521.4 20.4 20031 1596.6 1586.0 1046.4 539.6 10.6 20032 1611.2 1626.5 1072.7 553.8 -15.3 20033 1696.5 1700.2 1113.3 586.9 -3.7 20034 1763.7 1755.3 1146.3 609.0 8.4 20041 1819.6 1783.4 1158.8 624.6 36.2 20042 1920.7 1861.7 1198.5 663.2 59.0 20043 1962.2 1914.7 1235.2 679.5 47.5 20044 2013.5 1955.4 1269.1 686.3 58.1 20051 2046.1 1988.8 1297.1 691.7 57.3 20052 2074.7 2021.8 1325.6 696.1 52.9 20053 2103.6 2054.0 1354.0 700.0 49.6 20054 2133.0 2085.7 1382.4 703.2 47.3 20061 2163.2 2116.3 1410.2 706.1 46.9 20062 2191.4 2146.1 1437.3 708.8 45.3 20063 2219.3 2175.8 1464.1 711.6 43.5 20064 2247.6 2205.2 1490.6 714.7 42.3 20071 2276.4 2234.7 1516.6 718.1 41.7 20072 2305.9 2264.5 1542.6 721.9 41.4 20073 2336.3 2294.8 1568.5 726.3 41.5 20074 2367.4 2325.6 1594.4 731.2 41.7 20081 2399.2 2357.1 1620.4 736.7 42.1 20082 2431.8 2389.2 1646.5 742.7 42.6 20083 2465.1 2422.0 1672.7 749.3 43.1 20084 2499.2 2455.5 1698.9 756.5 43.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20001 -346.4 1055.1 1401.5 1689.6 565.3 1124.3 20002 -366.9 1091.8 1458.7 1720.0 586.6 1133.4 20003 -400.7 1122.4 1523.1 1729.8 581.2 1148.6 20004 -403.9 1115.8 1519.7 1746.9 582.0 1164.9 20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -376.3 975.0 1351.3 1909.2 654.2 1255.0 20022 -415.4 1008.1 1423.5 1944.9 676.6 1268.3 20023 -431.1 1023.4 1454.5 1968.3 684.4 1283.9 20024 -476.6 1013.5 1490.1 2004.2 708.2 1296.0 20031 -503.2 1019.8 1523.0 2041.4 723.4 1318.0 20032 -497.6 1018.1 1515.7 2074.2 761.1 1313.1 20033 -488.7 1047.7 1536.4 2086.4 756.7 1329.7 20034 -502.8 1099.2 1602.0 2100.1 767.5 1332.6 20041 -546.9 1134.3 1681.2 2139.6 793.3 1346.3 20042 -591.3 1167.6 1758.9 2174.3 804.4 1369.9 20043 -627.8 1188.2 1816.0 2199.4 816.6 1382.8 20044 -644.6 1220.5 1865.0 2232.0 829.8 1402.2 20051 -654.4 1253.5 1907.9 2265.1 843.3 1421.8 20052 -663.3 1287.5 1950.8 2298.8 856.9 1441.8 20053 -670.5 1322.5 1993.0 2333.1 870.9 1462.2 20054 -676.5 1358.4 2034.9 2368.0 885.1 1482.9 20061 -687.3 1388.8 2076.1 2403.7 899.7 1504.0 20062 -697.0 1419.9 2116.9 2439.9 914.4 1525.4 20063 -705.9 1451.6 2157.5 2476.6 929.5 1547.2 20064 -714.0 1484.0 2198.0 2513.9 944.7 1569.2 20071 -721.6 1517.0 2238.7 2551.7 960.2 1591.5 20072 -729.0 1550.7 2279.7 2590.1 976.0 1614.1 20073 -736.2 1585.2 2321.3 2629.1 992.0 1637.1 20074 -743.4 1620.3 2363.7 2668.6 1008.3 1660.3 20081 -750.8 1656.2 2406.9 2708.7 1024.8 1683.9 20082 -758.3 1692.8 2451.1 2749.5 1041.7 1707.8 20083 -766.1 1730.3 2496.3 2790.9 1058.8 1732.1 20084 -774.1 1768.6 2542.7 2833.0 1076.2 1756.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9695.6 6661.1 872.8 1917.2 3871.1 20002 9847.9 6703.5 851.3 1944.0 3908.2 20003 9836.6 6768.0 863.8 1954.9 3949.3 20004 9887.8 6824.9 865.4 1972.7 3986.8 20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9993.5 7051.2 937.8 2029.3 4084.1 20022 10052.6 7100.8 947.8 2033.2 4119.8 20023 10117.3 7153.3 979.3 2030.2 4143.8 20024 10135.9 7197.0 973.4 2056.7 4166.9 20031 10184.4 7243.9 973.2 2082.0 4188.7 20032 10287.4 7317.9 1020.0 2090.1 4207.8 20033 10472.8 7412.9 1059.6 2125.3 4228.0 20034 10580.7 7478.5 1069.7 2152.0 4256.8 20041 10697.5 7554.6 1075.5 2187.3 4291.8 20042 10784.7 7582.7 1074.7 2188.0 4320.0 20043 10883.4 7675.0 1117.3 2209.2 4348.5 20044 10978.9 7737.1 1130.2 2226.4 4380.6 20051 11062.6 7799.5 1143.6 2242.8 4413.1 20052 11142.4 7861.3 1157.0 2258.8 4445.5 20053 11222.8 7921.8 1170.0 2274.2 4477.5 20054 11303.6 7981.2 1182.6 2289.2 4509.4 20061 11379.5 8039.6 1194.7 2303.5 4541.4 20062 11453.3 8097.1 1206.3 2317.5 4573.4 20063 11526.9 8153.8 1217.5 2331.0 4605.4 20064 11600.8 8210.0 1228.3 2344.1 4637.5 20071 11675.4 8265.8 1238.9 2357.0 4669.9 20072 11750.7 8321.7 1249.4 2369.8 4702.5 20073 11827.0 8377.8 1259.9 2382.5 4735.4 20074 11904.1 8434.3 1270.5 2395.1 4768.7 20081 11982.1 8491.3 1281.1 2407.8 4802.4 20082 12061.1 8548.9 1292.0 2420.5 4836.5 20083 12141.0 8607.4 1303.0 2433.4 4871.0 20084 12221.9 8666.6 1314.3 2446.3 4906.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1677.9 1651.0 1196.6 454.4 26.9 20002 1788.2 1688.9 1238.5 450.4 99.3 20003 1742.6 1686.4 1245.2 441.2 56.2 20004 1732.9 1689.4 1247.8 441.6 43.5 20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1550.2 1557.6 1099.8 457.8 -7.4 20022 1550.5 1542.6 1072.3 470.3 7.9 20023 1565.8 1543.1 1069.5 473.6 22.7 20024 1563.1 1539.3 1060.8 478.5 23.8 20031 1557.4 1547.8 1060.5 487.3 9.6 20032 1570.9 1588.5 1090.6 497.9 -17.6 20033 1651.3 1654.8 1131.0 523.8 -3.5 20034 1705.5 1696.9 1161.0 535.9 8.6 20041 1755.5 1715.5 1173.0 542.5 40.0 20042 1832.6 1771.5 1207.9 563.6 61.1 20043 1857.7 1809.6 1241.7 567.9 48.1 20044 1894.2 1835.8 1266.5 569.4 58.4 20051 1911.9 1854.7 1285.0 569.7 57.2 20052 1925.4 1873.0 1303.8 569.2 52.4 20053 1939.0 1890.3 1322.0 568.2 48.8 20054 1952.9 1906.7 1340.0 566.7 46.2 20061 1967.3 1921.8 1357.0 564.9 45.5 20062 1979.5 1935.9 1373.0 562.9 43.6 20063 1991.2 1949.6 1388.5 561.1 41.6 20064 2003.0 1962.8 1403.4 559.4 40.2 20071 2015.0 1975.8 1417.7 558.1 39.3 20072 2027.5 1988.7 1431.7 557.1 38.7 20073 2040.4 2001.9 1445.4 556.5 38.5 20074 2053.6 2015.2 1458.9 556.3 38.5 20081 2067.3 2028.7 1472.2 556.5 38.6 20082 2081.2 2042.5 1485.4 557.1 38.7 20083 2095.4 2056.4 1498.4 558.1 38.9 20084 2109.8 2070.7 1511.2 559.5 39.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20001 -350.6 1060.9 1411.5 1707.3 20002 -374.5 1092.0 1466.5 1730.5 20003 -395.6 1120.0 1515.6 1721.5 20004 -397.2 1112.3 1509.5 1727.1 20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -444.9 991.6 1436.5 1833.6 20022 -458.1 1017.8 1475.9 1853.5 20023 -469.8 1025.5 1495.3 1863.2 20024 -515.4 1014.4 1529.8 1881.7 20031 -511.7 1010.6 1522.3 1882.7 20032 -525.2 1006.5 1531.7 1915.3 20033 -508.7 1033.8 1542.5 1916.0 20034 -528.3 1076.2 1604.5 1923.6 20041 -550.1 1095.4 1645.5 1935.7 20042 -580.3 1114.8 1695.1 1946.4 20043 -598.0 1128.8 1726.8 1953.0 20044 -611.8 1150.7 1762.5 1963.6 20051 -618.8 1173.1 1791.9 1974.3 20052 -625.1 1195.9 1821.0 1985.1 20053 -629.8 1219.1 1848.9 1996.0 20054 -633.3 1242.8 1876.1 2007.0 20061 -641.3 1261.0 1902.4 2018.1 20062 -648.3 1279.5 1927.8 2029.3 20063 -654.4 1298.3 1952.7 2040.6 20064 -659.8 1317.4 1977.1 2051.9 20071 -664.6 1336.7 2001.3 2063.4 20072 -669.1 1356.3 2025.4 2075.0 20073 -673.5 1376.2 2049.7 2086.6 20074 -677.9 1396.4 2074.3 2098.4 20081 -682.3 1416.9 2099.2 2110.2 20082 -686.9 1437.7 2124.6 2122.2 20083 -691.7 1458.8 2150.5 2134.3 20084 -696.7 1480.2 2176.9 2146.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1814.6 846.9 131.4 105.0 731.3 20022 1820.4 835.6 143.2 107.0 734.6 20023 1812.3 824.4 146.9 106.7 734.3 20024 1810.6 817.7 152.2 105.8 734.9 20031 1849.5 809.6 183.1 109.1 747.7 20032 1859.1 811.6 183.1 110.4 754.0 20033 1775.1 709.2 194.3 110.0 761.6 20034 1858.5 772.5 204.9 111.6 769.5 20041 1874.7 768.3 207.9 110.6 787.9 20042 1906.4 779.9 219.5 110.6 796.4 20043 1923.0 793.1 214.5 110.9 804.5 20044 1962.8 812.6 219.9 112.6 817.6 20051 2000.6 832.0 223.5 114.3 830.7 20052 2038.5 851.5 227.0 116.1 843.9 20053 2077.1 871.3 230.8 117.8 857.2 20054 2116.5 891.5 234.8 119.5 870.6 20061 2155.3 911.7 238.5 121.3 883.8 20062 2194.1 932.0 242.2 123.0 896.8 20063 2233.2 952.4 246.2 124.8 909.7 20064 2272.7 973.1 250.4 126.6 922.6 20071 2312.7 994.1 254.7 128.3 935.5 20072 2353.3 1015.5 259.2 130.1 948.4 20073 2394.7 1037.5 263.8 131.9 961.5 20074 2436.8 1059.9 268.5 133.8 974.6 20081 2479.8 1082.9 273.3 135.6 988.0 20082 2523.7 1106.5 278.2 137.5 1001.4 20083 2568.5 1130.7 283.2 139.4 1015.1 20084 2614.2 1155.7 288.2 141.4 1029.0
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20001 1786.4 485.7 752.0 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 767.7 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 774.7 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 796.1 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2023.1 570.7 907.3 884.3 23.0 291.9 212.5 40.7 -208.5 20022 2072.1 586.3 920.8 910.7 10.1 304.2 221.4 39.4 -251.7 20023 2067.4 593.4 923.5 913.9 9.6 305.4 210.9 34.2 -255.1 20024 2113.3 620.3 930.7 915.7 15.0 316.3 209.3 36.7 -302.7 20031 2131.1 634.3 948.8 927.6 21.2 314.3 199.2 35.9 -281.6 20032 2223.4 665.7 961.3 943.3 18.0 345.1 201.3 48.6 -364.3 20033 2208.1 663.0 969.2 950.6 18.6 343.0 193.1 39.8 -433.0 20034 2237.7 671.3 974.2 958.4 15.8 357.2 196.8 38.2 -379.2 20041 2265.8 691.1 1000.0 972.0 28.0 346.0 195.1 35.1 -391.1 20042 2289.1 700.3 996.3 978.7 17.6 351.9 204.9 34.2 -382.7 20043 2297.4 713.0 1004.9 988.1 16.8 342.1 203.5 33.9 -374.4 20044 2343.0 725.0 1024.1 1007.3 16.8 348.7 211.3 33.9 -380.3 20051 2389.5 737.1 1043.7 1026.9 16.8 355.5 219.3 33.9 -388.8 20052 2436.8 749.5 1063.6 1046.8 16.8 362.4 227.4 33.9 -398.3 20053 2485.1 762.1 1083.9 1067.1 16.8 369.5 235.6 33.9 -408.0 20054 2534.3 775.0 1104.7 1087.9 16.8 376.6 244.0 33.9 -417.8 20061 2584.4 788.2 1125.8 1109.0 16.8 384.0 252.6 33.9 -429.1 20062 2635.4 801.6 1147.4 1130.6 16.8 391.4 261.1 33.9 -441.3 20063 2687.3 815.2 1169.3 1152.5 16.8 399.0 269.8 33.9 -454.1 20064 2740.1 829.1 1191.7 1174.9 16.8 406.8 278.6 33.9 -467.4 20071 2793.9 843.2 1214.5 1197.7 16.8 414.7 287.6 33.9 -481.3 20072 2848.8 857.5 1237.8 1221.0 16.8 422.7 296.9 33.9 -495.5 20073 2904.7 872.1 1261.5 1244.7 16.8 430.9 306.3 33.9 -510.1 20074 2961.8 886.9 1285.7 1268.9 16.8 439.3 316.0 33.9 -525.0 20081 3020.0 901.9 1310.4 1293.6 16.8 447.9 326.0 33.9 -540.2 20082 3079.4 917.3 1335.5 1318.7 16.8 456.6 336.2 33.9 -555.7 20083 3140.0 932.9 1361.1 1344.3 16.8 465.4 346.7 33.9 -571.5 20084 3201.8 948.7 1387.2 1370.4 16.8 474.5 357.5 33.9 -587.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1254.2 218.8 28.5 700.6 14.4 291.9 20022 1277.0 216.5 30.9 710.9 14.5 304.2 20023 1296.3 222.3 31.9 722.1 14.6 305.4 20024 1310.5 222.6 33.3 723.6 14.7 316.3 20031 1308.2 216.1 31.9 731.2 14.7 314.3 20032 1354.1 219.0 32.9 742.2 14.9 345.1 20033 1379.8 232.5 35.4 753.8 15.1 343.0 20034 1412.2 236.9 37.6 765.0 15.5 357.2 20041 1415.4 238.3 38.5 776.6 16.0 346.0 20042 1447.6 249.1 40.5 789.7 16.4 351.9 20043 1446.1 254.3 39.6 793.3 16.8 342.1 20044 1471.3 259.5 40.6 805.5 16.9 348.7 20051 1496.3 264.6 41.2 817.9 17.1 355.5 20052 1521.5 269.8 41.9 830.3 17.2 362.4 20053 1547.0 275.0 42.6 842.7 17.3 369.5 20054 1572.8 280.3 43.3 855.1 17.4 376.6 20061 1598.7 285.6 44.0 867.6 17.6 384.0 20062 1624.8 290.8 44.7 880.2 17.7 391.4 20063 1651.2 296.1 45.4 892.8 17.8 399.0 20064 1677.8 301.5 46.2 905.4 18.0 406.8 20071 1704.8 306.9 47.0 918.1 18.1 414.7 20072 1732.1 312.5 47.8 930.9 18.2 422.7 20073 1759.9 318.1 48.7 943.8 18.4 430.9 20074 1788.1 323.8 49.5 956.9 18.5 439.3 20081 1816.8 329.7 50.4 970.2 18.6 447.9 20082 1846.0 335.7 51.3 983.7 18.8 456.6 20083 1875.8 341.8 52.2 997.4 18.9 465.4 20084 1906.2 348.1 53.2 1011.3 19.0 474.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 0.0 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 0.0 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 0.0 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 0.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1283.0 996.2 278.1 11.7 2.1 -0.9 0.0 -28.8 20022 1300.7 1011.5 280.2 13.6 2.1 -2.5 0.0 -23.7 20023 1317.6 1023.8 282.6 15.1 2.1 -1.8 0.0 -21.3 20024 1336.6 1034.6 291.9 16.4 2.3 -4.0 0.0 -26.1 20031 1357.0 1054.8 291.8 16.2 2.5 -3.3 0.0 -48.8 20032 1359.7 1051.8 296.6 16.9 2.4 -3.2 0.0 -5.6 20033 1373.4 1061.0 301.3 18.1 2.5 -4.5 0.0 6.4 20034 1376.9 1066.3 296.5 19.2 2.6 -2.5 0.0 35.3 20041 1403.7 1079.8 309.0 20.2 2.5 -2.8 0.0 11.7 20042 1429.3 1091.8 322.2 20.1 2.6 -2.2 0.0 18.3 20043 1429.4 1103.5 309.3 20.7 2.7 -1.4 0.0 16.7 20044 1452.9 1119.5 316.6 20.9 2.7 -1.4 0.0 18.4 20051 1476.7 1135.6 324.2 21.0 2.7 -1.4 0.0 19.6 20052 1500.8 1152.1 331.7 21.2 2.7 -1.4 0.0 20.7 20053 1525.4 1168.9 339.2 21.3 2.7 -1.4 0.0 21.6 20054 1550.3 1186.0 346.9 21.5 2.7 -1.4 0.0 22.5 20061 1575.8 1203.5 354.8 21.6 2.7 -1.4 0.0 22.9 20062 1601.9 1221.2 363.0 21.8 2.7 -1.4 0.0 22.9 20063 1628.6 1239.2 371.5 22.0 2.7 -1.4 0.0 22.6 20064 1655.8 1257.5 380.3 22.1 2.7 -1.4 0.0 22.1 20071 1683.4 1276.0 389.3 22.3 2.7 -1.4 0.0 21.3 20072 1711.6 1294.7 398.5 22.5 2.7 -1.4 0.0 20.5 20073 1740.2 1313.7 407.9 22.6 2.7 -1.4 0.0 19.7 20074 1769.3 1333.0 417.6 22.8 2.7 -1.4 0.0 18.8 20081 1798.9 1352.6 427.4 23.0 2.7 -1.4 0.0 17.9 20082 1829.0 1372.5 437.5 23.1 2.7 -1.4 0.0 17.0 20083 1859.6 1392.6 447.8 23.3 2.7 -1.4 0.0 16.2 20084 1890.8 1413.1 458.3 23.5 2.7 -1.4 0.0 15.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
20001 99.3 99.3 100.5 98.8 99.3 20002 99.7 99.8 100.3 99.7 99.7 20003 100.3 100.2 99.7 100.6 100.2 20004 100.7 100.7 99.5 100.9 100.8 20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.4 102.6 96.3 100.9 105.0 20022 103.9 103.4 95.7 102.2 105.7 20023 104.2 103.8 95.3 102.5 106.5 20024 104.8 104.2 94.6 102.8 107.1 20031 105.5 105.1 93.7 104.1 108.2 20032 105.8 105.2 92.8 103.5 109.0 20033 106.1 105.5 91.8 104.4 109.5 20034 106.6 105.8 90.8 104.6 110.3 20041 107.2 106.7 90.8 105.9 111.1 20042 108.1 107.5 90.8 107.6 111.7 20043 108.5 107.7 90.0 107.9 112.2 20044 109.3 108.5 90.7 108.7 113.1 20051 110.1 109.3 91.4 109.4 113.9 20052 111.0 110.1 92.0 110.2 114.7 20053 111.8 110.9 92.7 111.1 115.6 20054 112.7 111.7 93.4 111.9 116.4 20061 113.6 112.5 94.1 112.7 117.3 20062 114.5 113.3 94.8 113.5 118.1 20063 115.4 114.1 95.5 114.3 119.0 20064 116.2 115.0 96.1 115.2 119.8 20071 117.1 115.8 96.8 116.0 120.7 20072 118.0 116.6 97.5 116.8 121.6 20073 118.9 117.4 98.2 117.7 122.4 20074 119.9 118.3 98.9 118.5 123.3 20081 120.8 119.1 99.6 119.3 124.2 20082 121.7 119.9 100.3 120.2 125.1 20083 122.6 120.8 101.1 121.0 126.0 20084 123.6 121.6 101.8 121.9 126.8
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
20001 99.5 99.8 98.7 99.5 99.3 99.0 20002 99.8 99.8 99.6 100.0 99.5 99.4 20003 100.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.5 100.5 20004 100.5 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.7 101.1 20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.3 99.2 106.2 98.3 94.1 104.1 20022 101.3 99.0 106.7 99.0 96.4 104.9 20023 101.2 98.6 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.6 20024 102.0 98.8 109.0 99.9 97.4 106.5 20031 102.5 98.7 110.7 100.9 100.0 108.4 20032 102.4 98.4 111.2 101.2 99.0 108.3 20033 102.7 98.4 112.0 101.3 99.6 108.9 20034 103.4 98.7 113.6 102.1 99.8 109.2 20041 104.0 98.8 115.1 103.6 102.2 110.5 20042 105.1 99.2 117.7 104.7 103.8 111.7 20043 105.8 99.5 119.7 105.3 105.2 112.6 20044 106.5 100.2 120.5 106.1 105.8 113.7 20051 107.2 100.9 121.4 106.9 106.5 114.7 20052 107.9 101.7 122.3 107.7 107.1 115.8 20053 108.7 102.4 123.2 108.5 107.8 116.9 20054 109.4 103.2 124.1 109.3 108.5 118.0 20061 110.1 103.9 125.0 110.1 109.1 119.1 20062 110.9 104.7 125.9 111.0 109.8 120.2 20063 111.6 105.4 126.8 111.8 110.5 121.4 20064 112.4 106.2 127.8 112.6 111.2 122.5 20071 113.1 107.0 128.7 113.5 111.9 123.7 20072 113.9 107.7 129.6 114.3 112.6 124.8 20073 114.6 108.5 130.5 115.2 113.3 126.0 20074 115.4 109.3 131.5 116.0 114.0 127.2 20081 116.2 110.1 132.4 116.9 114.7 128.4 20082 117.0 110.8 133.3 117.7 115.4 129.6 20083 117.8 111.6 134.3 118.6 116.1 130.8 20084 118.6 112.4 135.2 119.5 116.8 132.0
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment