US Forecast: January 28, 2005
Forecast Period

2005:1--2008:4 (16 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 28, 2005.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2004:4. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: January 28, 2005, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). Even though all the NIPA data were revised at the end of 2003, no specification changes to the model seemed to be needed after reestimation. The NIPA tables at the end of this forecast memo are still in the old format (although using the revised data), but Appendix A has been completely updated using the new table formats.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2004:4.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2004:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.1       
COG           3.0                  3.9       
JG            1.0                 -1.1       
TRGS          8.0                  7.2       
TRSH         10.0                  6.5       
COS           3.0                  4.5       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0/7.0              5.0
PIM           2.5                  0.4

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. 8.0/7.0 for EX means an annual growth rate of 8.0 percent for 2005:1-2005:4 and 7.0 percent after that.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "solve" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 4.1, 3.2, 2.9, and 2.8 percent, respectively. These growth rates are enough to keep the unemployment rate roughly unchanged. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.9, 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be 3.5 percent in 2005 and 3.4 percent in 2006. These predicted values are higher than the consensus view as of this writing, and so the model is more pessimistic about inflation than is the current consensus view.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 2.8 percent by the end of 2005. It then rises to 3.3 percent by the end of 2006.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $420 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) This is smaller than many others expect. This is where experimenting may be useful. In particular, it may be that the above assumptions have underestimated future federal government spending. It could also mean, however, that people are too pessimistic about the deficit.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be extremely large throughout the period. It is predicted to rise to over $800 billion in 2006.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be an oil price shock or further depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1170. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 970, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: Janaury 28, 2005
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20001 9695.6 1.0 3871.1 6.0 1917.2 0.3 872.8 24.4 20002 9847.9 6.4 3908.2 3.9 1944.0 5.7 851.3 -9.5 20003 9836.6 -0.5 3949.3 4.3 1954.9 2.3 863.8 6.0 20004 9887.8 2.1 3986.8 3.9 1972.7 3.7 865.4 0.7 20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9993.5 3.4 4084.1 3.3 2029.3 3.8 937.8 -8.4 20022 10052.6 2.4 4119.8 3.5 2033.2 0.8 947.8 4.3 20023 10117.3 2.6 4143.8 2.4 2030.2 -0.6 979.3 14.0 20024 10135.9 0.7 4166.9 2.2 2056.7 5.3 973.4 -2.4 20031 10184.4 1.9 4188.7 2.1 2082.0 5.0 973.2 -0.1 20032 10287.4 4.1 4207.8 1.8 2090.1 1.6 1020.0 20.7 20033 10472.8 7.4 4228.0 1.9 2125.3 6.9 1059.6 16.5 20034 10580.7 4.2 4256.8 2.8 2152.0 5.1 1069.7 3.9 20041 10697.5 4.5 4291.8 3.3 2187.3 6.7 1075.5 2.2 20042 10784.7 3.3 4320.0 2.7 2188.0 0.1 1074.7 -0.3 20043 10891.1 4.0 4352.5 3.0 2213.2 4.7 1118.3 17.2 20044 10975.7 3.1 4391.8 3.7 2244.6 5.8 1136.6 6.7 20051 11086.1 4.1 4428.0 3.3 2266.6 4.0 1157.5 7.6 20052 11173.6 3.2 4463.6 3.3 2285.6 3.4 1176.0 6.6 20053 11254.3 2.9 4498.0 3.1 2302.8 3.1 1192.3 5.6 20054 11332.3 2.8 4531.3 3.0 2318.6 2.8 1206.5 4.9 20061 11403.6 2.5 4563.9 2.9 2333.2 2.5 1219.1 4.2 20062 11473.2 2.5 4596.1 2.9 2346.9 2.4 1230.4 3.8 20063 11542.6 2.4 4628.0 2.8 2360.0 2.2 1240.8 3.4 20064 11612.5 2.4 4659.8 2.8 2372.5 2.1 1250.5 3.2 20071 11683.5 2.5 4691.7 2.8 2384.8 2.1 1259.8 3.0 20072 11755.6 2.5 4723.6 2.8 2396.8 2.0 1269.0 2.9 20073 11829.0 2.5 4755.8 2.8 2408.8 2.0 1278.1 2.9 20074 11903.6 2.5 4788.4 2.8 2420.8 2.0 1287.4 2.9 20081 11979.5 2.6 4821.3 2.8 2432.9 2.0 1296.9 3.0 20082 12056.7 2.6 4854.7 2.8 2445.1 2.0 1306.6 3.0 20083 12135.2 2.6 4888.6 2.8 2457.4 2.0 1316.6 3.1 20084 12215.0 2.7 4922.9 2.8 2470.0 2.1 1327.0 3.2
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20001 383.7 1.0 999.1 16.4 26.9 1411.5 16.7 20002 380.3 -3.5 1038.0 16.5 99.3 1466.5 16.5 20003 372.5 -7.9 1058.6 8.2 56.2 1515.6 14.1 20004 372.8 0.3 1054.9 -1.4 43.5 1509.5 -1.6 20011 380.5 8.5 1035.7 -7.1 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 386.0 5.9 1004.8 -11.4 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 387.5 1.6 981.9 -8.8 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 383.6 -3.9 936.3 -17.3 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 392.2 9.2 913.3 -9.5 -7.4 1436.5 12.5 20022 403.4 12.0 866.7 -18.9 7.9 1475.9 11.4 20023 406.2 2.8 879.9 6.2 22.7 1495.3 5.4 20024 410.5 4.3 879.2 -0.3 23.8 1529.8 9.6 20031 418.5 8.1 882.7 1.6 9.6 1522.3 -1.9 20032 428.3 9.6 904.2 10.1 -17.6 1531.7 2.5 20033 450.6 22.6 925.7 9.8 -3.5 1542.5 2.9 20034 460.9 9.4 934.3 3.7 8.6 1604.5 17.1 20041 465.5 4.1 934.7 0.2 40.0 1645.5 10.6 20042 485.0 17.9 993.5 27.6 61.1 1695.1 12.6 20043 485.9 0.7 1010.9 7.2 34.5 1714.3 4.6 20044 486.2 0.3 1036.1 10.3 45.8 1751.9 9.1 20051 488.2 1.6 1057.9 8.7 60.8 1792.2 9.5 20052 487.4 -0.6 1081.5 9.2 58.7 1831.8 9.1 20053 486.0 -1.2 1101.1 7.4 55.3 1867.6 8.0 20054 483.7 -1.8 1119.6 6.9 52.1 1900.3 7.2 20061 480.7 -2.5 1135.0 5.6 48.6 1929.6 6.3 20062 477.4 -2.7 1148.8 4.9 44.9 1956.5 5.7 20063 474.2 -2.7 1161.4 4.5 41.9 1981.6 5.2 20064 471.2 -2.5 1173.0 4.1 39.8 2005.6 4.9 20071 468.6 -2.2 1184.0 3.8 38.5 2028.8 4.7 20072 466.5 -1.8 1194.4 3.6 37.8 2051.6 4.6 20073 464.8 -1.4 1204.6 3.5 37.6 2074.5 4.5 20074 463.6 -1.0 1214.6 3.4 37.6 2097.5 4.5 20081 463.0 -0.6 1224.4 3.3 37.7 2121.0 4.5 20082 462.8 -0.2 1234.1 3.2 38.0 2144.9 4.6 20083 463.0 0.2 1243.8 3.2 38.4 2169.3 4.6 20084 463.7 0.6 1253.4 3.1 38.8 2194.5 4.7
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20001 3.6 3.1 13.5 10.1 20002 1.7 2.1 3.9 1.8 20003 2.1 1.5 9.2 7.6 20004 1.6 1.8 5.5 3.7 20011 3.3 3.1 8.1 4.8 20012 3.3 3.4 2.7 -0.6 20013 1.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 20014 2.0 1.4 4.5 3.0 20021 1.0 0.7 3.4 2.7 20022 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.2 20023 1.5 1.6 1.2 -0.4 20024 2.0 1.9 1.5 -0.4 20031 2.9 2.0 5.7 3.6 20032 1.1 0.5 9.2 8.7 20033 1.3 1.2 5.3 4.0 20034 1.6 1.2 2.8 1.6 20041 2.6 2.6 2.0 -0.6 20042 3.2 3.1 6.5 3.3 20043 1.4 2.2 2.1 -0.1 20044 2.0 1.3 5.8 4.5 20051 3.5 3.6 4.8 1.2 20052 3.5 3.6 4.9 1.2 20053 3.5 3.5 4.9 1.3 20054 3.5 3.5 4.8 1.3 20061 3.5 3.4 4.8 1.3 20062 3.4 3.4 4.8 1.4 20063 3.4 3.3 4.8 1.4 20064 3.3 3.3 4.7 1.5 20071 3.2 3.2 4.7 1.5 20072 3.2 3.2 4.7 1.5 20073 3.2 3.1 4.7 1.5 20074 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 20081 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 20082 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20083 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6 20084 3.1 3.0 4.7 1.6
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1378.1 -6.9 64.6 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1381.2 0.9 66.1 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1381.8 0.2 61.7 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.7 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1402.5 4.3 65.4 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1429.2 7.8 66.9 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.0 16.6 71.2 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.3 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1525.6 -5.0 68.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1549.0 6.3 69.9 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1591.9 11.6 70.3 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.5 4.0 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1650.9 11.3 76.7 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1700.2 12.5 77.7 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1714.4 3.4 78.4 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1741.0 6.4 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1787.2 11.0 77.2 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1821.4 7.9 83.9 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1863.9 9.7 75.3 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1885.9 4.8 76.2 20051 2.2 5.4 5.7 1930.2 9.7 76.2 20052 2.4 5.3 5.7 1974.5 9.5 76.3 20053 2.6 5.3 5.8 2020.6 9.7 76.5 20054 2.8 5.3 5.9 2063.7 8.8 76.5 20061 3.0 5.4 5.9 2106.2 8.5 76.4 20062 3.1 5.4 6.0 2148.4 8.3 76.3 20063 3.2 5.4 6.0 2191.6 8.3 76.3 20064 3.3 5.4 6.1 2234.8 8.1 76.3 20071 3.4 5.4 6.2 2278.5 8.1 76.3 20072 3.4 5.5 6.2 2322.4 7.9 76.3 20073 3.5 5.5 6.3 2366.9 7.9 76.4 20074 3.5 5.5 6.3 2411.8 7.8 76.5 20081 3.5 5.6 6.4 2457.2 7.7 76.6 20082 3.6 5.6 6.4 2503.1 7.7 76.8 20083 3.6 5.6 6.5 2549.4 7.6 77.0 20084 3.6 5.7 6.5 2596.2 7.5 77.2
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20001 4.1 -0.4 -0.2 2.8 2.4 0.7 5.8 20002 3.9 -0.5 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.9 5.6 20003 4.0 0.2 -2.0 1.0 0.4 -0.6 5.7 20004 3.9 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.0 1.9 5.6 20011 4.2 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.0 1.1 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.6 -0.1 -1.9 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 -0.2 -0.4 3.1 -1.9 -1.0 6.9 20014 5.5 0.7 0.4 4.2 -3.3 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -2.4 -0.4 8.2 20022 5.8 0.2 -0.5 5.2 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.7 -0.3 1.4 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.8 -0.6 1.0 1.1 -0.9 0.5 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.6 3.2 -0.3 0.7 9.0 20033 6.1 0.4 -1.2 0.0 0.7 -0.2 8.9 20034 5.9 1.1 -0.4 2.2 0.7 2.1 8.6 20041 5.6 -0.9 -0.8 4.1 0.7 1.5 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.4 8.2 20043 5.5 0.8 0.7 3.6 1.9 2.1 8.1 20044 5.4 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.4 1.4 8.0 20051 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.2 8.1 20052 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 8.0 20053 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 8.0 20054 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.7 1.2 8.0 20061 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 8.1 20062 5.4 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.3 1.0 8.2 20063 5.5 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.2 0.9 8.3 20064 5.5 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.9 8.4 20071 5.6 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 8.5 20072 5.6 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 8.6 20073 5.7 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 8.6 20074 5.7 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 8.7 20081 5.7 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 8.8 20082 5.8 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 8.9 20083 5.8 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 8.9 20084 5.8 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 9.0
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20001 3201.6 585.7 -8.2 2.5 -0.8 352.9 212.8 56.0 20002 -2973.2 589.7 2.8 2.5 8.3 370.8 181.5 59.8 20003 -190.0 560.4 -18.4 2.7 -0.6 413.7 191.3 48.9 20004 -5149.0 542.4 -12.2 2.0 3.7 408.5 172.6 35.4 20011 -7915.3 552.0 7.3 2.0 -1.7 401.5 156.6 32.6 20012 3085.2 562.0 7.4 1.2 5.2 366.9 123.7 25.8 20013 -9003.0 484.7 -44.7 3.6 1.4 343.7 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5981.5 518.8 31.3 0.6 4.7 332.4 -4.9 -30.6 20021 242.0 547.3 23.9 2.8 3.9 413.8 -208.5 -28.8 20022 -6700.9 581.1 27.1 2.8 1.6 444.9 -251.7 -23.7 20023 -7855.1 610.8 22.1 1.7 3.9 450.7 -255.1 -21.3 20024 3425.2 652.9 30.6 1.2 0.9 484.1 -302.7 -26.1 20031 -1199.1 646.9 -3.6 1.0 2.5 525.1 -281.6 -48.8 20032 6206.3 691.9 30.9 1.2 6.2 509.8 -364.3 -5.6 20033 1759.9 754.7 41.6 2.0 7.2 495.1 -433.0 6.4 20034 7115.2 852.8 63.1 1.4 3.4 476.8 -379.2 35.3 20041 1449.5 889.1 18.1 1.1 3.0 547.1 -391.1 11.7 20042 619.1 915.2 12.3 1.4 3.4 618.9 -379.9 18.3 20043 -894.7 918.4 1.4 0.5 5.0 623.0 -384.2 4.5 20044 4000.0 798.8 -42.8 1.4 2.1 712.8 -424.7 22.3 20051 1685.8 844.9 25.1 1.1 1.8 734.7 -411.8 26.7 20052 1508.4 866.8 10.8 0.9 1.1 755.5 -415.6 29.4 20053 1438.1 888.1 10.2 0.8 1.0 771.9 -421.1 31.2 20054 1420.2 910.4 10.4 0.8 1.1 784.6 -427.7 32.2 20061 1431.6 930.4 9.1 0.7 1.1 796.5 -436.2 32.4 20062 1458.0 951.6 9.4 0.7 1.2 805.4 -445.8 32.0 20063 1474.6 974.2 9.9 0.6 1.3 812.2 -456.2 31.2 20064 1490.6 998.3 10.3 0.6 1.4 817.4 -467.1 30.1 20071 1514.3 1023.6 10.5 0.6 1.5 821.5 -478.4 28.8 20072 1539.9 1050.0 10.7 0.7 1.6 824.8 -490.1 27.4 20073 1564.5 1077.1 10.8 0.7 1.6 827.8 -502.0 26.1 20074 1588.1 1105.0 10.8 0.7 1.7 830.6 -514.2 24.7 20081 1612.8 1133.5 10.7 0.8 1.7 833.3 -526.6 23.4 20082 1638.5 1162.4 10.6 0.8 1.7 836.2 -539.1 22.2 20083 1664.8 1191.9 10.5 0.8 1.7 839.2 -551.7 21.0 20084 1691.3 1221.9 10.5 0.9 1.7 842.5 -564.4 20.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20001 -30.2 5.2 6.6 743.2 7.2 6.0 20002 28.8 -3.4 12.3 758.6 8.5 0.7 20003 -9.7 1.1 10.7 763.3 2.5 4.2 20004 0.3 2.5 -2.7 771.5 4.4 0.7 20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 12.2 7.5 4.7 884.3 14.9 -1.8 20022 24.1 -1.0 11.0 910.7 12.5 10.5 20023 3.3 3.9 3.1 913.9 1.4 3.5 20024 17.8 2.2 -4.3 915.7 0.8 0.5 20031 -4.3 0.4 -1.5 927.6 5.3 11.3 20032 42.7 -1.8 -1.6 943.3 6.9 -4.3 20033 -6.6 5.4 11.3 950.6 3.1 2.6 20034 9.5 -2.8 17.4 958.4 3.3 1.0 20041 12.1 -0.9 7.3 972.0 5.8 9.6 20042 5.7 4.7 7.3 978.7 2.8 6.4 20043 8.0 -7.9 6.0 989.8 4.6 5.1 20044 0.7 -2.0 -3.9 1008.9 7.9 8.1 20051 3.0 3.0 8.0 1028.5 8.0 2.5 20052 3.0 3.0 8.0 1048.5 8.0 2.5 20053 3.0 3.0 8.0 1068.8 8.0 2.5 20054 3.0 3.0 8.0 1089.6 8.0 2.5 20061 3.0 3.0 7.0 1110.8 8.0 2.5 20062 3.0 3.0 7.0 1132.4 8.0 2.5 20063 3.0 3.0 7.0 1154.4 8.0 2.5 20064 3.0 3.0 7.0 1176.8 8.0 2.5 20071 3.0 3.0 7.0 1199.6 8.0 2.5 20072 3.0 3.0 7.0 1222.9 8.0 2.5 20073 3.0 3.0 7.0 1246.7 8.0 2.5 20074 3.0 3.0 7.0 1270.9 8.0 2.5 20081 3.0 3.0 7.0 1295.6 8.0 2.5 20082 3.0 3.0 7.0 1320.8 8.0 2.5 20083 3.0 3.0 7.0 1346.4 8.0 2.5 20084 3.0 3.0 7.0 1372.6 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1814.6 846.9 131.4 105.0 731.3 20022 1820.4 835.6 143.2 107.0 734.6 20023 1812.3 824.4 146.9 106.7 734.3 20024 1810.6 817.7 152.2 105.8 734.9 20031 1849.5 809.6 183.1 109.1 747.7 20032 1859.1 811.6 183.1 110.4 754.0 20033 1775.1 709.2 194.3 110.0 761.6 20034 1858.5 772.5 204.9 111.6 769.5 20041 1874.7 768.3 207.9 110.6 787.9 20042 1909.2 781.5 219.5 110.6 797.6 20043 1916.0 794.3 204.9 110.6 806.2 20044 1924.2 809.5 186.5 112.9 815.3 20051 1981.0 841.9 194.0 115.0 830.0 20052 2021.7 862.3 197.9 117.0 844.5 20053 2061.5 882.2 201.7 118.9 858.7 20054 2101.0 902.0 205.6 120.8 872.5 20061 2139.2 921.5 209.1 122.7 885.9 20062 2177.1 940.7 212.9 124.5 899.0 20063 2214.8 959.8 216.9 126.3 911.8 20064 2252.8 979.1 221.1 128.1 924.6 20071 2291.2 998.6 225.5 129.9 937.3 20072 2330.1 1018.4 230.0 131.7 950.0 20073 2369.7 1038.6 234.7 133.5 962.9 20074 2409.9 1059.2 239.5 135.3 975.9 20081 2450.9 1080.3 244.4 137.2 989.0 20082 2492.8 1102.0 249.4 139.0 1002.4 20083 2535.6 1124.2 254.5 140.9 1015.9 20084 2579.4 1147.1 259.6 142.9 1029.7
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20001 1786.4 485.7 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2023.1 570.7 884.3 23.0 291.9 212.5 40.7 -208.5 20022 2072.1 586.3 910.7 10.1 304.2 221.4 39.4 -251.7 20023 2067.4 593.4 913.9 9.6 305.4 210.9 34.2 -255.1 20024 2113.3 620.3 915.7 15.0 316.3 209.3 36.7 -302.7 20031 2131.1 634.3 927.6 21.2 314.3 199.2 35.9 -281.6 20032 2223.4 665.7 943.3 18.0 345.1 201.3 48.6 -364.3 20033 2208.1 663.0 950.6 18.6 343.0 193.1 39.8 -433.0 20034 2237.7 671.3 958.4 15.8 357.2 196.8 38.2 -379.2 20041 2265.8 691.1 972.0 28.0 346.0 195.1 35.1 -391.1 20042 2289.1 700.3 978.7 17.6 351.9 204.9 34.2 -379.9 20043 2300.2 713.0 989.8 17.2 342.1 203.4 34.7 -384.2 20044 2348.9 714.7 1008.9 16.9 361.6 210.4 36.4 -424.7 20051 2392.7 725.4 1028.5 16.9 368.6 216.9 36.4 -411.8 20052 2437.3 736.2 1048.5 16.9 375.8 223.6 36.4 -415.6 20053 2482.6 747.1 1068.8 16.9 383.1 230.3 36.4 -421.1 20054 2528.7 758.2 1089.6 16.9 390.5 237.1 36.4 -427.7 20061 2575.5 769.3 1110.8 16.9 398.1 244.0 36.4 -436.2 20062 2622.9 780.5 1132.4 16.9 405.8 250.9 36.4 -445.8 20063 2671.0 791.8 1154.4 16.9 413.7 257.9 36.4 -456.2 20064 2719.9 803.1 1176.8 16.9 421.8 264.9 36.4 -467.1 20071 2769.6 814.5 1199.6 16.9 430.0 272.2 36.4 -478.4 20072 2820.2 826.1 1222.9 16.9 438.3 279.6 36.4 -490.1 20073 2871.7 837.7 1246.7 16.9 446.8 287.2 36.4 -502.0 20074 2924.1 849.5 1270.9 16.9 455.5 294.9 36.4 -514.2 20081 2977.5 861.4 1295.6 16.9 464.4 302.9 36.4 -526.6 20082 3031.9 873.4 1320.8 16.9 473.4 311.0 36.4 -539.1 20083 3087.3 885.6 1346.4 16.9 482.6 319.3 36.4 -551.7 20084 3143.7 898.0 1372.6 16.9 492.0 327.9 36.4 -564.4
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1254.2 218.8 28.5 700.6 14.4 291.9 20022 1277.0 216.5 30.9 710.9 14.5 304.2 20023 1296.3 222.3 31.9 722.1 14.6 305.4 20024 1310.5 222.6 33.3 723.6 14.7 316.3 20031 1308.2 216.1 31.9 731.2 14.7 314.3 20032 1354.1 219.0 32.9 742.2 14.9 345.1 20033 1379.8 232.5 35.4 753.8 15.1 343.0 20034 1412.2 236.9 37.6 765.0 15.5 357.2 20041 1415.4 238.3 38.5 776.6 16.0 346.0 20042 1447.6 249.1 40.5 789.7 16.4 351.9 20043 1437.0 249.3 37.7 791.1 16.8 342.1 20044 1479.9 255.0 34.3 812.0 17.0 361.6 20051 1509.0 260.6 35.7 826.9 17.1 368.6 20052 1537.0 266.1 36.4 841.4 17.3 375.8 20053 1564.6 271.5 37.1 855.5 17.4 383.1 20054 1591.9 276.9 37.8 869.1 17.5 390.5 20061 1618.8 282.1 38.5 882.5 17.6 398.1 20062 1645.7 287.3 39.2 895.6 17.8 405.8 20063 1672.6 292.4 39.9 908.6 17.9 413.7 20064 1699.6 297.6 40.7 921.5 18.0 421.8 20071 1726.8 302.8 41.5 934.3 18.2 430.0 20072 1754.2 308.1 42.3 947.2 18.3 438.3 20073 1782.1 313.5 43.2 960.2 18.4 446.8 20074 1810.4 319.0 44.1 973.3 18.6 455.5 20081 1839.1 324.6 45.0 986.5 18.7 464.4 20082 1868.4 330.3 45.9 1000.0 18.9 473.4 20083 1898.2 336.2 46.8 1013.6 19.0 482.6 20084 1928.6 342.2 47.8 1027.6 19.1 492.0
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1283.0 996.2 278.1 11.7 2.1 -0.9 -28.8 20022 1300.7 1011.5 280.2 13.6 2.1 -2.5 -23.7 20023 1317.6 1023.8 282.6 15.1 2.1 -1.8 -21.3 20024 1336.6 1034.6 291.9 16.4 2.3 -4.0 -26.1 20031 1357.0 1054.8 291.8 16.2 2.5 -3.3 -48.8 20032 1359.7 1051.8 296.6 16.9 2.4 -3.2 -5.6 20033 1373.4 1061.0 301.3 18.1 2.5 -4.5 6.4 20034 1376.9 1066.3 296.5 19.2 2.6 -2.5 35.3 20041 1403.7 1079.8 309.0 20.2 2.5 -2.8 11.7 20042 1429.3 1091.8 322.2 20.1 2.6 -2.2 18.3 20043 1432.5 1105.5 310.8 20.4 2.7 -1.5 4.5 20044 1457.6 1122.0 318.6 21.2 3.3 -0.9 22.3 20051 1482.3 1139.5 325.6 21.4 3.3 -0.9 26.7 20052 1507.6 1157.2 333.1 21.5 3.3 -0.9 29.4 20053 1533.4 1175.1 340.8 21.7 3.3 -0.9 31.2 20054 1559.6 1193.3 348.7 21.8 3.3 -0.9 32.2 20061 1586.4 1211.6 357.0 22.0 3.3 -0.9 32.4 20062 1613.7 1230.0 365.7 22.2 3.3 -0.9 32.0 20063 1641.4 1248.6 374.6 22.3 3.3 -0.9 31.2 20064 1669.5 1267.4 383.8 22.5 3.3 -0.9 30.1 20071 1698.0 1286.3 393.2 22.7 3.3 -0.9 28.8 20072 1726.8 1305.4 402.8 22.8 3.3 -0.9 27.4 20073 1756.0 1324.7 412.6 23.0 3.3 -0.9 26.1 20074 1785.7 1344.2 422.5 23.2 3.3 -0.9 24.7 20081 1815.7 1363.9 432.7 23.3 3.3 -0.9 23.4 20082 1846.2 1384.0 443.0 23.5 3.3 -0.9 22.2 20083 1877.2 1404.3 453.5 23.7 3.3 -0.9 21.0 20084 1908.7 1424.9 464.2 23.9 3.3 -0.9 20.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20001 -115.5 -367.6 -26.8 352.9 217.8 -60.9 20002 -115.1 -342.5 -44.2 370.8 184.8 -53.8 20003 -89.6 -423.8 -32.2 413.7 197.3 -65.4 20004 -134.9 -342.5 -27.8 408.5 177.4 -80.7 20011 -147.5 -335.4 8.6 401.5 161.4 -88.7 20012 -197.0 -208.6 24.0 366.9 124.2 -109.5 20013 -43.0 -123.9 25.6 343.7 -82.2 -120.2 20014 -249.7 51.1 34.9 332.4 -5.4 -163.2 20021 -91.4 -23.5 76.1 413.8 -207.4 -167.6 20022 -106.8 16.5 56.4 444.9 -252.0 -159.0 20023 -193.0 79.3 77.3 450.7 -255.8 -158.5 20024 -241.0 140.9 76.2 484.1 -296.9 -163.3 20031 -262.5 106.9 95.7 525.1 -279.2 -186.0 20032 -263.5 177.3 81.5 509.8 -365.5 -139.6 20033 -219.3 200.8 91.9 495.1 -434.8 -133.8 20034 -273.6 221.6 71.1 476.8 -394.5 -101.3 20041 -320.6 230.6 70.9 547.1 -404.3 -123.8 20042 -336.1 134.4 93.8 618.9 -385.6 -125.5 20043 -372.7 232.0 39.9 623.0 -390.1 -132.1 20044 -300.8 103.2 35.3 712.8 -435.0 -115.5 20051 -330.6 93.9 38.1 734.7 -422.7 -113.4 20052 -342.3 86.2 41.0 755.5 -427.2 -113.1 20053 -351.0 82.3 44.0 771.9 -433.4 -113.8 20054 -355.5 79.8 47.0 784.6 -440.6 -115.2 20061 -357.9 78.8 50.0 796.5 -449.9 -117.5 20062 -358.4 80.6 53.1 805.4 -460.2 -120.5 20063 -357.3 84.1 56.2 812.2 -471.3 -123.9 20064 -355.0 88.8 59.4 817.4 -482.9 -127.6 20071 -351.7 94.2 62.6 821.5 -495.0 -131.6 20072 -347.7 100.0 65.9 824.8 -507.4 -135.6 20073 -343.3 106.3 69.2 827.8 -520.2 -139.7 20074 -338.9 112.8 72.5 830.6 -533.2 -143.9 20081 -334.6 119.6 76.0 833.3 -546.3 -148.0 20082 -330.6 126.7 79.4 836.2 -559.6 -152.1 20083 -326.9 133.9 83.0 839.2 -573.1 -156.1 20084 -323.7 141.3 86.6 842.5 -586.6 -160.1 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9629.4 6613.9 876.9 1894.2 3842.8 20002 9822.8 6688.1 854.2 1938.3 3895.6 20003 9861.9 6783.8 861.3 1965.8 3956.7 20004 9953.6 6871.7 860.9 1990.5 4020.3 20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10338.2 7236.8 903.5 2046.8 4286.5 20022 10439.8 7339.2 907.5 2077.7 4354.0 20023 10546.5 7428.0 932.8 2081.3 4413.9 20024 10617.6 7500.1 920.8 2114.6 4464.7 20031 10744.6 7609.8 912.1 2167.5 4530.2 20032 10884.1 7696.3 946.8 2163.6 4585.9 20033 11116.7 7822.5 972.7 2219.2 4630.6 20034 11275.8 7914.8 971.1 2250.1 4693.6 20041 11472.5 8060.2 976.3 2316.6 4767.3 20042 11657.6 8153.9 975.5 2354.6 4823.8 20043 11815.0 8282.4 1007.0 2387.2 4888.2 20044 11966.9 8428.0 1023.9 2447.6 4956.5 20051 12192.4 8583.2 1051.5 2492.3 5039.4 20052 12396.3 8733.4 1077.2 2534.1 5122.1 20053 12594.5 8879.2 1101.0 2574.2 5204.0 20054 12791.3 9021.0 1123.2 2612.9 5284.9 20061 12981.8 9159.8 1144.0 2650.3 5365.5 20062 13170.8 9296.1 1163.7 2686.8 5445.7 20063 13360.2 9430.8 1182.5 2722.5 5525.8 20064 13550.6 9564.4 1200.8 2757.7 5605.9 20071 13742.8 9697.7 1218.8 2792.7 5686.3 20072 13937.3 9831.4 1236.7 2827.4 5767.2 20073 14134.2 9965.9 1254.7 2862.3 5848.9 20074 14334.0 10101.8 1272.9 2897.3 5931.5 20081 14536.9 10239.4 1291.5 2932.7 6015.2 20082 14743.1 10379.0 1310.5 2968.5 6100.1 20083 14952.9 10521.0 1329.9 3004.7 6186.3 20084 15166.4 10665.5 1350.0 3041.5 6274.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1672.3 1642.4 1193.9 448.5 29.9 20002 1781.6 1685.3 1236.5 448.8 96.3 20003 1749.0 1690.6 1247.5 443.1 58.4 20004 1738.9 1697.5 1250.3 447.2 41.4 20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1568.5 1577.4 1091.4 486.0 -8.9 20022 1571.1 1563.0 1061.2 501.8 8.1 20023 1581.3 1562.2 1055.0 507.2 19.1 20024 1589.9 1569.5 1048.1 521.4 20.4 20031 1596.6 1586.0 1046.4 539.6 10.6 20032 1611.2 1626.5 1072.7 553.8 -15.3 20033 1696.5 1700.2 1113.3 586.9 -3.7 20034 1763.7 1755.3 1146.3 609.0 8.4 20041 1819.6 1783.4 1158.8 624.6 36.2 20042 1920.7 1861.7 1198.5 663.2 59.0 20043 1947.1 1915.5 1238.5 677.0 31.6 20044 2002.1 1956.6 1274.7 681.9 45.5 20051 2060.8 1999.9 1309.2 690.7 61.0 20052 2101.4 2042.1 1345.8 696.3 59.3 20053 2136.1 2079.7 1378.8 701.0 56.3 20054 2169.0 2115.5 1410.9 704.6 53.5 20061 2197.6 2147.4 1440.1 707.2 50.3 20062 2224.0 2177.1 1467.8 709.3 46.9 20063 2249.9 2205.9 1494.4 711.5 44.0 20064 2276.0 2233.9 1520.0 713.9 42.1 20071 2302.9 2261.8 1545.1 716.7 41.1 20072 2330.5 2289.9 1569.9 720.0 40.7 20073 2359.0 2318.4 1594.5 723.9 40.7 20074 2388.4 2347.5 1619.1 728.4 41.0 20081 2418.7 2377.3 1643.7 733.6 41.4 20082 2449.9 2407.8 1668.4 739.4 42.0 20083 2481.9 2439.2 1693.2 745.9 42.7 20084 2514.8 2471.4 1718.3 753.1 43.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20001 -346.4 1055.1 1401.5 1689.6 565.3 1124.3 20002 -366.9 1091.8 1458.7 1720.0 586.6 1133.4 20003 -400.7 1122.4 1523.1 1729.8 581.2 1148.6 20004 -403.9 1115.8 1519.7 1746.9 582.0 1164.9 20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -376.3 975.0 1351.3 1909.2 654.2 1255.0 20022 -415.4 1008.1 1423.5 1944.9 676.6 1268.3 20023 -431.1 1023.4 1454.5 1968.3 684.4 1283.9 20024 -476.6 1013.5 1490.1 2004.2 708.2 1296.0 20031 -503.2 1019.8 1523.0 2041.4 723.4 1318.0 20032 -497.6 1018.1 1515.7 2074.2 761.1 1313.1 20033 -488.7 1047.7 1536.4 2086.4 756.7 1329.7 20034 -502.8 1099.2 1602.0 2100.1 767.5 1332.6 20041 -546.9 1134.3 1681.2 2139.6 793.3 1346.3 20042 -591.3 1167.6 1758.9 2174.3 804.4 1369.9 20043 -611.7 1189.5 1801.2 2197.2 817.4 1379.8 20044 -687.5 1189.6 1877.1 2224.3 824.8 1399.5 20051 -708.8 1223.4 1932.2 2257.2 836.8 1420.4 20052 -729.1 1258.0 1987.1 2290.5 849.0 1441.5 20053 -745.0 1293.5 2038.5 2324.3 861.3 1463.0 20054 -757.2 1329.8 2087.0 2358.4 873.8 1484.6 20061 -768.5 1363.9 2132.3 2392.8 886.3 1506.5 20062 -776.8 1398.6 2175.4 2427.6 899.0 1528.6 20063 -783.1 1433.9 2217.0 2462.6 911.7 1550.9 20064 -787.7 1470.0 2257.7 2497.8 924.5 1573.3 20071 -791.2 1506.8 2298.0 2533.4 937.4 1596.0 20072 -794.0 1544.3 2338.2 2569.3 950.4 1618.9 20073 -796.3 1582.6 2378.9 2605.6 963.6 1642.0 20074 -798.5 1621.7 2420.2 2642.3 976.9 1665.4 20081 -800.7 1661.8 2462.4 2679.5 990.4 1689.1 20082 -802.9 1702.7 2505.6 2717.1 1004.0 1713.1 20083 -805.3 1744.6 2549.9 2755.3 1017.8 1737.5 20084 -807.9 1787.5 2595.4 2794.0 1031.8 1762.2
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9695.6 6661.1 872.8 1917.2 3871.1 20002 9847.9 6703.5 851.3 1944.0 3908.2 20003 9836.6 6768.0 863.8 1954.9 3949.3 20004 9887.8 6824.9 865.4 1972.7 3986.8 20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9993.5 7051.2 937.8 2029.3 4084.1 20022 10052.6 7100.8 947.8 2033.2 4119.8 20023 10117.3 7153.3 979.3 2030.2 4143.8 20024 10135.9 7197.0 973.4 2056.7 4166.9 20031 10184.4 7243.9 973.2 2082.0 4188.7 20032 10287.4 7317.9 1020.0 2090.1 4207.8 20033 10472.8 7412.9 1059.6 2125.3 4228.0 20034 10580.7 7478.5 1069.7 2152.0 4256.8 20041 10697.5 7554.6 1075.5 2187.3 4291.8 20042 10784.7 7582.7 1074.7 2188.0 4320.0 20043 10891.1 7684.0 1118.3 2213.2 4352.5 20044 10975.7 7773.0 1136.6 2244.6 4391.8 20051 11086.1 7852.1 1157.5 2266.6 4428.0 20052 11173.6 7925.2 1176.0 2285.6 4463.6 20053 11254.3 7993.1 1192.3 2302.8 4498.0 20054 11332.3 8056.4 1206.5 2318.6 4531.3 20061 11403.6 8116.2 1219.1 2333.2 4563.9 20062 11473.2 8173.4 1230.4 2346.9 4596.1 20063 11542.6 8228.8 1240.8 2360.0 4628.0 20064 11612.5 8282.9 1250.5 2372.5 4659.8 20071 11683.5 8336.3 1259.8 2384.8 4691.7 20072 11755.6 8389.4 1269.0 2396.8 4723.6 20073 11829.0 8442.8 1278.1 2408.8 4755.8 20074 11903.6 8496.6 1287.4 2420.8 4788.4 20081 11979.5 8551.1 1296.9 2432.9 4821.3 20082 12056.7 8606.4 1306.6 2445.1 4854.7 20083 12135.2 8662.6 1316.6 2457.4 4888.6 20084 12215.0 8719.9 1327.0 2470.0 4922.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1677.9 1651.0 1196.6 454.4 26.9 20002 1788.2 1688.9 1238.5 450.4 99.3 20003 1742.6 1686.4 1245.2 441.2 56.2 20004 1732.9 1689.4 1247.8 441.6 43.5 20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1550.2 1557.6 1099.8 457.8 -7.4 20022 1550.5 1542.6 1072.3 470.3 7.9 20023 1565.8 1543.1 1069.5 473.6 22.7 20024 1563.1 1539.3 1060.8 478.5 23.8 20031 1557.4 1547.8 1060.5 487.3 9.6 20032 1570.9 1588.5 1090.6 497.9 -17.6 20033 1651.3 1654.8 1131.0 523.8 -3.5 20034 1705.5 1696.9 1161.0 535.9 8.6 20041 1755.5 1715.5 1173.0 542.5 40.0 20042 1832.6 1771.5 1207.9 563.6 61.1 20043 1845.7 1811.2 1245.3 565.9 34.5 20044 1888.4 1842.6 1276.3 566.3 45.8 20051 1929.6 1868.7 1299.9 568.8 60.8 20052 1952.7 1894.0 1325.3 568.7 58.7 20053 1969.8 1914.5 1346.7 567.9 55.3 20054 1985.3 1933.2 1367.0 566.2 52.1 20061 1996.6 1948.1 1384.2 563.8 48.6 20062 2005.9 1961.0 1399.9 561.1 44.9 20063 2014.7 1972.8 1414.3 558.5 41.9 20064 2023.7 1984.0 1427.8 556.2 39.8 20071 2033.3 1994.8 1440.6 554.2 38.5 20072 2043.5 2005.7 1453.0 552.7 37.8 20073 2054.3 2016.7 1465.1 551.7 37.6 20074 2065.7 2028.1 1477.0 551.1 37.6 20081 2077.6 2039.8 1488.7 551.1 37.7 20082 2090.0 2051.9 1500.4 551.6 38.0 20083 2102.8 2064.4 1512.0 552.5 38.4 20084 2116.1 2077.4 1523.5 553.8 38.8
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20001 -350.6 1060.9 1411.5 1707.3 20002 -374.5 1092.0 1466.5 1730.5 20003 -395.6 1120.0 1515.6 1721.5 20004 -397.2 1112.3 1509.5 1727.1 20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -444.9 991.6 1436.5 1833.6 20022 -458.1 1017.8 1475.9 1853.5 20023 -469.8 1025.5 1495.3 1863.2 20024 -515.4 1014.4 1529.8 1881.7 20031 -511.7 1010.6 1522.3 1882.7 20032 -525.2 1006.5 1531.7 1915.3 20033 -508.7 1033.8 1542.5 1916.0 20034 -528.3 1076.2 1604.5 1923.6 20041 -550.1 1095.4 1645.5 1935.7 20042 -580.3 1114.8 1695.1 1946.4 20043 -583.2 1131.1 1714.3 1949.8 20044 -632.0 1119.9 1751.9 1954.4 20051 -650.6 1141.7 1792.2 1963.1 20052 -668.0 1163.8 1831.8 1971.8 20053 -681.2 1186.4 1867.6 1980.6 20054 -690.8 1209.5 1900.3 1989.5 20061 -699.5 1230.1 1929.6 1998.4 20062 -705.4 1251.1 1956.5 2007.4 20063 -709.2 1272.5 1981.6 2016.4 20064 -711.4 1294.2 2005.6 2025.4 20071 -712.5 1316.2 2028.8 2034.6 20072 -713.0 1338.7 2051.6 2043.7 20073 -713.0 1361.5 2074.5 2053.0 20074 -712.8 1384.7 2097.5 2062.2 20081 -712.6 1408.4 2121.0 2071.6 20082 -712.5 1432.4 2144.9 2081.0 20083 -712.5 1456.8 2169.3 2090.4 20084 -712.8 1481.7 2194.5 2099.9
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1814.6 846.9 131.4 105.0 731.3 20022 1820.4 835.6 143.2 107.0 734.6 20023 1812.3 824.4 146.9 106.7 734.3 20024 1810.6 817.7 152.2 105.8 734.9 20031 1849.5 809.6 183.1 109.1 747.7 20032 1859.1 811.6 183.1 110.4 754.0 20033 1775.1 709.2 194.3 110.0 761.6 20034 1858.5 772.5 204.9 111.6 769.5 20041 1874.7 768.3 207.9 110.6 787.9 20042 1909.2 781.5 219.5 110.6 797.6 20043 1916.0 794.3 204.9 110.6 806.2 20044 1924.2 809.5 186.5 112.9 815.3 20051 1981.0 841.9 194.0 115.0 830.0 20052 2021.7 862.3 197.9 117.0 844.5 20053 2061.5 882.2 201.7 118.9 858.7 20054 2101.0 902.0 205.6 120.8 872.5 20061 2139.2 921.5 209.1 122.7 885.9 20062 2177.1 940.7 212.9 124.5 899.0 20063 2214.8 959.8 216.9 126.3 911.8 20064 2252.8 979.1 221.1 128.1 924.6 20071 2291.2 998.6 225.5 129.9 937.3 20072 2330.1 1018.4 230.0 131.7 950.0 20073 2369.7 1038.6 234.7 133.5 962.9 20074 2409.9 1059.2 239.5 135.3 975.9 20081 2450.9 1080.3 244.4 137.2 989.0 20082 2492.8 1102.0 249.4 139.0 1002.4 20083 2535.6 1124.2 254.5 140.9 1015.9 20084 2579.4 1147.1 259.6 142.9 1029.7
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20001 1786.4 485.7 752.0 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 767.7 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 774.7 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 796.1 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2023.1 570.7 907.3 884.3 23.0 291.9 212.5 40.7 -208.5 20022 2072.1 586.3 920.8 910.7 10.1 304.2 221.4 39.4 -251.7 20023 2067.4 593.4 923.5 913.9 9.6 305.4 210.9 34.2 -255.1 20024 2113.3 620.3 930.7 915.7 15.0 316.3 209.3 36.7 -302.7 20031 2131.1 634.3 948.8 927.6 21.2 314.3 199.2 35.9 -281.6 20032 2223.4 665.7 961.3 943.3 18.0 345.1 201.3 48.6 -364.3 20033 2208.1 663.0 969.2 950.6 18.6 343.0 193.1 39.8 -433.0 20034 2237.7 671.3 974.2 958.4 15.8 357.2 196.8 38.2 -379.2 20041 2265.8 691.1 1000.0 972.0 28.0 346.0 195.1 35.1 -391.1 20042 2289.1 700.3 996.3 978.7 17.6 351.9 204.9 34.2 -379.9 20043 2300.2 713.0 1007.0 989.8 17.2 342.1 203.4 34.7 -384.2 20044 2348.9 714.7 1025.8 1008.9 16.9 361.6 210.4 36.4 -424.7 20051 2392.7 725.4 1045.4 1028.5 16.9 368.6 216.9 36.4 -411.8 20052 2437.3 736.2 1065.4 1048.5 16.9 375.8 223.6 36.4 -415.6 20053 2482.6 747.1 1085.7 1068.8 16.9 383.1 230.3 36.4 -421.1 20054 2528.7 758.2 1106.5 1089.6 16.9 390.5 237.1 36.4 -427.7 20061 2575.5 769.3 1127.7 1110.8 16.9 398.1 244.0 36.4 -436.2 20062 2622.9 780.5 1149.3 1132.4 16.9 405.8 250.9 36.4 -445.8 20063 2671.0 791.8 1171.3 1154.4 16.9 413.7 257.9 36.4 -456.2 20064 2719.9 803.1 1193.7 1176.8 16.9 421.8 264.9 36.4 -467.1 20071 2769.6 814.5 1216.5 1199.6 16.9 430.0 272.2 36.4 -478.4 20072 2820.2 826.1 1239.8 1222.9 16.9 438.3 279.6 36.4 -490.1 20073 2871.7 837.7 1263.6 1246.7 16.9 446.8 287.2 36.4 -502.0 20074 2924.1 849.5 1287.8 1270.9 16.9 455.5 294.9 36.4 -514.2 20081 2977.5 861.4 1312.5 1295.6 16.9 464.4 302.9 36.4 -526.6 20082 3031.9 873.4 1337.7 1320.8 16.9 473.4 311.0 36.4 -539.1 20083 3087.3 885.6 1363.3 1346.4 16.9 482.6 319.3 36.4 -551.7 20084 3143.7 898.0 1389.5 1372.6 16.9 492.0 327.9 36.4 -564.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1254.2 218.8 28.5 700.6 14.4 291.9 20022 1277.0 216.5 30.9 710.9 14.5 304.2 20023 1296.3 222.3 31.9 722.1 14.6 305.4 20024 1310.5 222.6 33.3 723.6 14.7 316.3 20031 1308.2 216.1 31.9 731.2 14.7 314.3 20032 1354.1 219.0 32.9 742.2 14.9 345.1 20033 1379.8 232.5 35.4 753.8 15.1 343.0 20034 1412.2 236.9 37.6 765.0 15.5 357.2 20041 1415.4 238.3 38.5 776.6 16.0 346.0 20042 1447.6 249.1 40.5 789.7 16.4 351.9 20043 1437.0 249.3 37.7 791.1 16.8 342.1 20044 1479.9 255.0 34.3 812.0 17.0 361.6 20051 1509.0 260.6 35.7 826.9 17.1 368.6 20052 1537.0 266.1 36.4 841.4 17.3 375.8 20053 1564.6 271.5 37.1 855.5 17.4 383.1 20054 1591.9 276.9 37.8 869.1 17.5 390.5 20061 1618.8 282.1 38.5 882.5 17.6 398.1 20062 1645.7 287.3 39.2 895.6 17.8 405.8 20063 1672.6 292.4 39.9 908.6 17.9 413.7 20064 1699.6 297.6 40.7 921.5 18.0 421.8 20071 1726.8 302.8 41.5 934.3 18.2 430.0 20072 1754.2 308.1 42.3 947.2 18.3 438.3 20073 1782.1 313.5 43.2 960.2 18.4 446.8 20074 1810.4 319.0 44.1 973.3 18.6 455.5 20081 1839.1 324.6 45.0 986.5 18.7 464.4 20082 1868.4 330.3 45.9 1000.0 18.9 473.4 20083 1898.2 336.2 46.8 1013.6 19.0 482.6 20084 1928.6 342.2 47.8 1027.6 19.1 492.0
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 0.0 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 0.0 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 0.0 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 0.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1283.0 996.2 278.1 11.7 2.1 -0.9 0.0 -28.8 20022 1300.7 1011.5 280.2 13.6 2.1 -2.5 0.0 -23.7 20023 1317.6 1023.8 282.6 15.1 2.1 -1.8 0.0 -21.3 20024 1336.6 1034.6 291.9 16.4 2.3 -4.0 0.0 -26.1 20031 1357.0 1054.8 291.8 16.2 2.5 -3.3 0.0 -48.8 20032 1359.7 1051.8 296.6 16.9 2.4 -3.2 0.0 -5.6 20033 1373.4 1061.0 301.3 18.1 2.5 -4.5 0.0 6.4 20034 1376.9 1066.3 296.5 19.2 2.6 -2.5 0.0 35.3 20041 1403.7 1079.8 309.0 20.2 2.5 -2.8 0.0 11.7 20042 1429.3 1091.8 322.2 20.1 2.6 -2.2 0.0 18.3 20043 1432.5 1105.5 310.8 20.4 2.7 -1.5 0.0 4.5 20044 1457.6 1122.0 318.6 21.2 3.3 -0.9 0.0 22.3 20051 1482.3 1139.5 325.6 21.4 3.3 -0.9 0.0 26.7 20052 1507.6 1157.2 333.1 21.5 3.3 -0.9 0.0 29.4 20053 1533.4 1175.1 340.8 21.7 3.3 -0.9 0.0 31.2 20054 1559.6 1193.3 348.7 21.8 3.3 -0.9 0.0 32.2 20061 1586.4 1211.6 357.0 22.0 3.3 -0.9 0.0 32.4 20062 1613.7 1230.0 365.7 22.2 3.3 -0.9 0.0 32.0 20063 1641.4 1248.6 374.6 22.3 3.3 -0.9 0.0 31.2 20064 1669.5 1267.4 383.8 22.5 3.3 -0.9 0.0 30.1 20071 1698.0 1286.3 393.2 22.7 3.3 -0.9 0.0 28.8 20072 1726.8 1305.4 402.8 22.8 3.3 -0.9 0.0 27.4 20073 1756.0 1324.7 412.6 23.0 3.3 -0.9 0.0 26.1 20074 1785.7 1344.2 422.5 23.2 3.3 -0.9 0.0 24.7 20081 1815.7 1363.9 432.7 23.3 3.3 -0.9 0.0 23.4 20082 1846.2 1384.0 443.0 23.5 3.3 -0.9 0.0 22.2 20083 1877.2 1404.3 453.5 23.7 3.3 -0.9 0.0 21.0 20084 1908.7 1424.9 464.2 23.9 3.3 -0.9 0.0 20.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
20001 99.3 99.3 100.5 98.8 99.3 20002 99.7 99.8 100.3 99.7 99.7 20003 100.3 100.2 99.7 100.6 100.2 20004 100.7 100.7 99.5 100.9 100.8 20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.4 102.6 96.3 100.9 105.0 20022 103.9 103.4 95.7 102.2 105.7 20023 104.2 103.8 95.3 102.5 106.5 20024 104.8 104.2 94.6 102.8 107.1 20031 105.5 105.1 93.7 104.1 108.2 20032 105.8 105.2 92.8 103.5 109.0 20033 106.1 105.5 91.8 104.4 109.5 20034 106.6 105.8 90.8 104.6 110.3 20041 107.2 106.7 90.8 105.9 111.1 20042 108.1 107.5 90.8 107.6 111.7 20043 108.5 107.8 90.0 107.9 112.3 20044 109.0 108.4 90.1 109.0 112.9 20051 110.0 109.3 90.8 110.0 113.8 20052 110.9 110.2 91.6 110.9 114.8 20053 111.9 111.1 92.3 111.8 115.7 20054 112.9 112.0 93.1 112.7 116.6 20061 113.8 112.9 93.8 113.6 117.6 20062 114.8 113.7 94.6 114.5 118.5 20063 115.7 114.6 95.3 115.4 119.4 20064 116.7 115.5 96.0 116.2 120.3 20071 117.6 116.3 96.7 117.1 121.2 20072 118.6 117.2 97.5 118.0 122.1 20073 119.5 118.0 98.2 118.8 123.0 20074 120.4 118.9 98.9 119.7 123.9 20081 121.3 119.7 99.6 120.5 124.8 20082 122.3 120.6 100.3 121.4 125.7 20083 123.2 121.5 101.0 122.3 126.5 20084 124.2 122.3 101.7 123.1 127.4
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
20001 99.5 99.8 98.7 99.5 99.3 99.0 20002 99.8 99.8 99.6 100.0 99.5 99.4 20003 100.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.5 100.5 20004 100.5 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.7 101.1 20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.3 99.2 106.2 98.3 94.1 104.1 20022 101.3 99.0 106.7 99.0 96.4 104.9 20023 101.2 98.6 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.6 20024 102.0 98.8 109.0 99.9 97.4 106.5 20031 102.5 98.7 110.7 100.9 100.0 108.4 20032 102.4 98.4 111.2 101.2 99.0 108.3 20033 102.7 98.4 112.0 101.3 99.6 108.9 20034 103.4 98.7 113.6 102.1 99.8 109.2 20041 104.0 98.8 115.1 103.6 102.2 110.5 20042 105.1 99.2 117.7 104.7 103.8 111.7 20043 105.8 99.5 119.6 105.2 105.1 112.7 20044 106.2 99.9 120.4 106.2 107.1 113.8 20051 107.0 100.7 121.4 107.2 107.8 115.0 20052 107.8 101.6 122.4 108.1 108.5 116.2 20053 108.6 102.4 123.4 109.0 109.1 117.3 20054 109.4 103.2 124.4 110.0 109.8 118.5 20061 110.2 104.0 125.4 110.9 110.5 119.7 20062 111.0 104.9 126.4 111.8 111.2 120.9 20063 111.8 105.7 127.4 112.7 111.9 122.1 20064 112.6 106.5 128.4 113.6 112.6 123.3 20071 113.4 107.3 129.3 114.5 113.3 124.5 20072 114.2 108.0 130.3 115.4 114.0 125.7 20073 115.0 108.8 131.2 116.2 114.7 126.9 20074 115.8 109.6 132.2 117.1 115.4 128.1 20081 116.5 110.4 133.1 118.0 116.1 129.3 20082 117.3 111.2 134.1 118.9 116.8 130.6 20083 118.2 112.0 135.0 119.8 117.5 131.8 20084 119.0 112.8 136.0 120.6 118.3 133.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment