US Forecast: July 30, 2005
Forecast Period

2005:3--2008:4 (14 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 29, 2005.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2005:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: July 30, 2005, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). No specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). Even though all the NIPA data were revised at the end of 2003, no specification changes to the model seemed to be needed after reestimation. The NIPA tables at the end of this forecast memo are still in the old format (although using the revised data), but Appendix A has been completely updated using the new table formats.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2005:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2005:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.3       
COG           3.0                  3.9       
JG            1.0                 -1.0       
TRGS          8.0                  6.8       
TRSH         10.0                  7.1       
COS           3.0                  4.6       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  5.4
PIM           2.5                  0.6

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "solve" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 4.0, 2.9, 2.3, and 2.4 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate at the end of 2006 is 5.0 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 2.7, 2.5, 2.2, and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be around 4.0 percent in 2005 and 2006. The predicted values are higher than the actual values in the past few years, and so inflation is predicted to increase.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 3.8 percent by the end of 2006.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $260 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) By the end of 2008 it is predicted to be $358.8 billion.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $720 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). By the end of 2008 it is predicted to be down to $613.2 billion.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or further depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1230. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1030, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: July 30, 2005
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20001 9695.6 1.0 3871.1 6.0 1917.2 0.3 872.8 24.4 20002 9847.9 6.4 3908.2 3.9 1944.0 5.7 851.3 -9.5 20003 9836.6 -0.5 3949.3 4.3 1954.9 2.3 863.8 6.0 20004 9887.8 2.1 3986.8 3.9 1972.7 3.7 865.4 0.7 20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10138.6 1.7 4146.5 1.9 2069.5 3.2 979.1 3.6 20032 10230.4 3.7 4169.7 2.3 2079.1 1.9 1014.0 15.0 20033 10410.9 7.2 4190.2 2.0 2121.2 8.3 1060.9 19.8 20034 10502.6 3.6 4229.4 3.8 2137.3 3.1 1060.0 -0.3 20041 10612.5 4.3 4269.0 3.8 2171.9 6.6 1071.6 4.4 20042 10704.1 3.5 4288.6 1.8 2186.1 2.6 1072.5 0.3 20043 10808.9 4.0 4324.1 3.4 2206.9 3.9 1100.4 10.8 20044 10897.1 3.3 4362.1 3.6 2236.5 5.5 1115.1 5.5 20051 10999.3 3.8 4392.0 2.8 2265.6 5.3 1122.3 2.6 20052 11092.0 3.4 4417.4 2.3 2283.9 3.3 1144.9 8.3 20053 11201.4 4.0 4441.3 2.2 2295.4 2.0 1154.1 3.2 20054 11281.4 2.9 4466.4 2.3 2305.8 1.8 1163.1 3.2 20061 11346.9 2.3 4491.7 2.3 2315.7 1.7 1171.4 2.9 20062 11413.3 2.4 4517.6 2.3 2325.3 1.7 1179.1 2.6 20063 11476.7 2.2 4544.1 2.4 2334.8 1.6 1186.4 2.5 20064 11541.4 2.3 4571.2 2.4 2344.2 1.6 1193.5 2.4 20071 11608.4 2.3 4599.0 2.5 2353.8 1.6 1200.7 2.4 20072 11677.7 2.4 4627.6 2.5 2363.6 1.7 1208.2 2.5 20073 11749.7 2.5 4656.9 2.6 2373.7 1.7 1216.0 2.6 20074 11824.4 2.6 4687.2 2.6 2384.2 1.8 1224.3 2.8 20081 11901.7 2.6 4718.2 2.7 2395.1 1.8 1233.3 3.0 20082 11981.3 2.7 4750.2 2.7 2406.4 1.9 1242.8 3.1 20083 12063.2 2.8 4783.0 2.8 2418.2 2.0 1253.0 3.3 20084 12147.3 2.8 4816.6 2.8 2430.4 2.0 1263.9 3.5
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20001 383.8 1.0 1016.1 16.7 26.9 1411.5 16.7 20002 380.4 -3.5 1048.2 13.3 99.3 1466.5 16.5 20003 372.6 -7.9 1073.3 9.9 56.2 1515.6 14.1 20004 372.9 0.3 1073.6 0.1 43.5 1509.5 -1.6 20011 380.6 8.5 1042.9 -10.9 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 386.1 5.9 1012.9 -11.0 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 387.6 1.6 995.1 -6.8 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 383.8 -3.9 947.2 -17.9 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 393.5 10.5 913.9 -13.3 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 402.8 9.8 871.2 -17.4 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 404.6 1.8 886.2 7.0 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 411.4 6.9 874.3 -5.2 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 416.6 5.1 887.8 6.3 24.0 1520.4 -2.5 20032 426.7 10.1 892.5 2.1 -0.4 1532.9 3.3 20033 448.3 21.9 903.0 4.8 9.3 1548.4 4.1 20034 461.3 12.1 894.8 -3.6 29.0 1608.6 16.5 20041 466.5 4.6 918.1 10.8 41.9 1654.8 12.0 20042 487.8 19.5 968.6 23.9 65.6 1711.9 14.5 20043 490.1 1.9 970.2 0.7 50.4 1731.5 4.7 20044 490.2 0.1 991.0 8.9 50.1 1778.5 11.3 20051 500.8 9.0 1034.9 18.9 58.2 1810.7 7.4 20052 512.7 9.8 1057.5 9.0 -6.4 1801.6 -2.0 20053 514.6 1.5 1076.0 7.2 33.8 1831.9 6.9 20054 512.9 -1.3 1091.3 5.8 41.9 1853.1 4.7 20061 508.2 -3.6 1103.4 4.5 41.8 1873.8 4.6 20062 502.0 -4.8 1116.7 4.9 40.9 1892.8 4.1 20063 495.3 -5.2 1128.2 4.2 37.6 1910.8 3.9 20064 489.0 -5.0 1137.5 3.3 35.5 1927.8 3.6 20071 483.4 -4.5 1145.7 2.9 34.2 1944.5 3.5 20072 478.7 -3.8 1153.1 2.6 33.7 1961.5 3.5 20073 475.0 -3.1 1160.1 2.5 33.9 1979.0 3.6 20074 472.1 -2.4 1167.0 2.4 34.5 1997.5 3.8 20081 470.3 -1.6 1173.7 2.3 35.4 2017.0 4.0 20082 469.2 -0.9 1180.4 2.3 36.4 2037.6 4.2 20083 469.0 -0.2 1187.2 2.3 37.4 2059.5 4.4 20084 469.5 0.4 1194.1 2.3 38.5 2082.5 4.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20001 3.6 3.1 13.5 10.1 20002 1.7 2.1 4.2 2.1 20003 2.1 1.5 9.1 7.5 20004 1.6 1.8 5.0 3.2 20011 3.3 3.1 8.4 5.1 20012 3.3 3.4 2.9 -0.5 20013 1.5 1.0 1.8 0.8 20014 2.0 1.4 4.2 2.8 20021 1.5 0.7 4.4 3.7 20022 1.4 2.1 2.0 -0.2 20023 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.6 20024 2.2 1.9 0.9 -1.0 20031 3.1 2.4 5.0 2.5 20032 1.1 0.5 9.0 8.5 20033 1.9 1.2 3.6 2.4 20034 1.8 1.1 2.0 0.9 20041 3.7 2.8 4.9 2.1 20042 3.9 3.7 5.0 1.3 20043 1.3 2.4 3.6 1.1 20044 2.7 2.5 11.4 8.7 20051 3.0 3.1 5.6 2.4 20052 2.6 2.4 4.8 2.3 20053 4.2 4.3 5.7 1.3 20054 4.2 4.3 5.7 1.3 20061 4.2 4.2 5.6 1.4 20062 4.0 4.1 5.5 1.4 20063 3.9 3.9 5.5 1.5 20064 3.8 3.8 5.4 1.5 20071 3.7 3.7 5.3 1.6 20072 3.6 3.5 5.2 1.6 20073 3.5 3.4 5.1 1.7 20074 3.4 3.3 5.1 1.7 20081 3.3 3.3 5.1 1.7 20082 3.3 3.2 5.0 1.8 20083 3.2 3.2 5.0 1.8 20084 3.2 3.1 5.0 1.8
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20001 5.5 7.7 8.5 1378.1 -6.9 64.6 20002 5.7 7.8 8.4 1381.2 0.9 66.1 20003 6.0 7.6 8.2 1381.8 0.2 61.7 20004 6.0 7.4 7.9 1387.7 1.7 63.3 20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1402.5 4.3 65.4 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1429.2 7.8 66.9 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1485.0 16.6 71.2 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 17.3 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1525.6 -5.0 68.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1549.0 6.3 69.9 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1591.9 11.6 70.3 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.5 4.0 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1650.9 11.3 76.7 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1700.2 12.5 77.7 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1714.4 3.4 78.4 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1741.0 6.4 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1787.2 11.0 77.2 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1821.4 7.9 83.9 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1863.2 9.5 75.3 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1893.4 6.6 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1916.0 4.9 78.4 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1906.8 -1.9 78.0 20053 3.0 5.1 5.8 1937.6 6.6 77.7 20054 3.3 5.2 5.9 1963.4 5.4 77.5 20061 3.5 5.3 6.1 1987.1 4.9 77.1 20062 3.7 5.4 6.2 2013.0 5.3 76.9 20063 3.8 5.4 6.3 2040.4 5.6 76.9 20064 3.8 5.5 6.4 2068.5 5.6 77.0 20071 3.9 5.6 6.5 2096.9 5.6 77.0 20072 3.9 5.6 6.6 2126.2 5.7 77.2 20073 3.9 5.7 6.6 2156.4 5.8 77.4 20074 3.9 5.7 6.7 2187.3 5.9 77.6 20081 3.9 5.8 6.7 2218.8 5.9 77.9 20082 3.9 5.8 6.8 2250.9 5.9 78.2 20083 3.9 5.9 6.8 2283.6 5.9 78.5 20084 4.0 5.9 6.8 2316.9 6.0 78.9
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20001 4.1 -0.4 -0.2 2.8 2.5 0.7 5.8 20002 3.9 -0.5 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.9 5.6 20003 4.0 0.2 -2.0 1.0 0.5 -0.6 5.7 20004 3.9 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.1 1.9 5.6 20011 4.2 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.0 1.1 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.6 -0.1 -2.1 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 -0.2 -0.4 3.1 -1.8 -1.0 6.9 20014 5.5 0.7 0.4 4.2 -3.2 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -2.3 -0.4 8.2 20022 5.8 0.2 -0.5 5.2 -0.4 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.7 -0.1 1.4 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.8 -0.6 1.0 1.1 -0.8 0.5 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.6 3.2 -0.6 0.7 9.0 20033 6.1 0.4 -1.2 0.0 1.1 -0.2 8.9 20034 5.9 1.1 -0.4 2.2 1.1 2.1 8.6 20041 5.6 -0.9 -0.8 4.1 0.8 1.5 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.4 8.2 20043 5.5 0.8 0.7 3.6 1.9 2.1 8.1 20044 5.4 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.0 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.8 2.1 0.6 7.8 20052 5.1 1.0 0.6 6.2 2.2 3.2 7.6 20053 5.0 0.5 1.0 2.4 2.7 1.7 7.5 20054 4.9 0.5 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.6 7.4 20061 4.9 0.5 1.0 2.4 2.2 1.4 7.3 20062 4.9 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.9 1.2 7.4 20063 5.0 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.0 7.5 20064 5.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 7.7 20071 5.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 1.2 0.9 7.8 20072 5.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.9 8.0 20073 5.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.9 8.1 20074 5.4 0.5 1.1 2.2 0.9 0.9 8.3 20081 5.4 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 8.4 20082 5.5 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 8.5 20083 5.5 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.9 1.0 8.6 20084 5.6 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.0 1.0 8.7
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20001 3179.8 585.7 -8.2 2.5 -0.4 352.9 212.8 56.0 20002 -2993.5 589.7 2.8 2.5 8.1 370.8 181.5 59.8 20003 -180.9 560.4 -18.4 2.7 -0.7 413.7 191.3 48.9 20004 -5165.5 542.4 -12.2 2.0 3.3 408.5 172.6 35.4 20011 -7959.3 552.0 7.3 2.0 -2.4 401.5 156.6 32.6 20012 3031.6 562.0 7.4 1.2 5.3 366.9 123.7 25.8 20013 -9053.9 484.7 -44.7 3.6 1.3 343.7 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5929.8 518.8 31.3 0.6 4.0 332.4 -4.9 -30.6 20021 132.9 538.3 15.9 3.0 3.3 411.5 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6745.1 588.4 42.8 2.9 1.7 449.6 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -7919.9 632.9 33.9 2.0 3.7 453.3 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3449.3 690.3 41.5 1.8 -0.3 479.0 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1202.1 672.1 -10.1 2.0 3.3 519.2 -295.8 -67.9 20032 6188.1 698.8 16.9 2.2 4.8 493.6 -373.8 -26.2 20033 1781.1 742.9 27.7 2.6 7.0 488.9 -456.1 -13.9 20034 7044.3 816.4 45.8 2.0 1.8 475.2 -404.8 12.4 20041 1407.5 853.0 19.2 1.9 2.8 554.6 -429.4 -6.5 20042 723.8 895.3 21.3 1.7 4.3 636.5 -413.5 -1.6 20043 -791.9 910.7 7.1 1.3 5.2 641.0 -411.6 -19.3 20044 6583.8 943.6 15.3 2.4 -0.3 725.6 -371.7 3.9 20051 -996.0 947.5 1.7 0.7 1.6 752.3 -293.3 7.4 20052 400.0 1138.3 108.3 0.2 0.1 718.0 -256.9 26.7 20053 1561.1 1182.7 16.5 0.5 1.7 725.0 -250.1 27.5 20054 1194.6 1201.6 6.5 0.7 0.9 721.4 -252.2 26.2 20061 1128.5 1215.5 4.7 0.8 0.8 716.9 -258.5 23.7 20062 1206.1 1233.3 6.0 0.9 1.0 709.9 -265.4 20.7 20063 1246.4 1251.2 5.9 1.0 1.2 701.3 -274.0 17.0 20064 1290.1 1271.6 6.7 1.1 1.4 691.2 -283.1 13.1 20071 1332.1 1294.1 7.3 1.2 1.6 680.4 -292.7 9.2 20072 1377.3 1318.1 7.6 1.3 1.7 669.3 -302.4 5.2 20073 1421.0 1343.4 7.9 1.4 1.9 658.5 -312.2 1.4 20074 1457.9 1369.7 8.1 1.5 1.9 648.2 -322.0 -2.1 20081 1491.2 1396.6 8.1 1.6 2.0 638.4 -331.5 -5.4 20082 1523.4 1424.0 8.1 1.7 2.0 629.3 -340.9 -8.5 20083 1554.3 1451.7 8.0 1.7 2.0 620.9 -350.0 -11.2 20084 1583.9 1479.8 8.0 1.8 2.1 613.2 -358.8 -13.7
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20001 -30.2 5.2 6.6 743.2 7.2 6.0 20002 28.8 -3.4 12.3 758.6 8.5 0.7 20003 -9.7 1.1 10.7 763.3 2.5 4.2 20004 0.3 2.5 -2.7 771.5 4.4 0.7 20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.2 -3.8 -2.9 933.3 6.4 11.3 20032 43.1 -1.8 -2.0 948.7 6.8 -4.4 20033 -3.9 4.8 11.5 957.1 3.6 2.6 20034 6.1 -4.2 19.1 965.7 3.6 1.1 20041 19.2 -2.8 5.1 988.1 9.6 9.5 20042 6.5 3.4 6.9 994.9 2.8 6.5 20043 5.4 0.0 5.4 1004.3 3.8 5.7 20044 -3.2 1.9 7.1 1018.8 5.9 6.8 20051 4.2 3.1 7.5 1047.9 11.9 2.8 20052 3.7 5.4 12.6 1061.8 5.4 8.8 20053 3.0 3.0 8.0 1082.4 8.0 2.5 20054 3.0 3.0 8.0 1103.5 8.0 2.5 20061 3.0 3.0 8.0 1124.9 8.0 2.5 20062 3.0 3.0 8.0 1146.7 8.0 2.5 20063 3.0 3.0 8.0 1169.0 8.0 2.5 20064 3.0 3.0 8.0 1191.7 8.0 2.5 20071 3.0 3.0 8.0 1214.9 8.0 2.5 20072 3.0 3.0 8.0 1238.5 8.0 2.5 20073 3.0 3.0 8.0 1262.5 8.0 2.5 20074 3.0 3.0 8.0 1287.1 8.0 2.5 20081 3.0 3.0 8.0 1312.1 8.0 2.5 20082 3.0 3.0 8.0 1337.6 8.0 2.5 20083 3.0 3.0 8.0 1363.5 8.0 2.5 20084 3.0 3.0 8.0 1390.0 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 105.0 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 106.9 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 107.0 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 105.8 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 109.0 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 110.8 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 111.2 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 112.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 115.8 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 115.5 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 116.2 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 118.7 823.4 20051 2165.8 910.9 291.7 119.8 843.4 20052 2234.3 930.3 330.8 122.2 851.0 20053 2289.7 957.3 340.7 124.1 867.6 20054 2337.2 982.9 345.3 126.0 883.1 20061 2381.1 1007.0 348.8 127.8 897.4 20062 2425.0 1030.8 353.2 129.7 911.3 20063 2467.9 1054.0 357.7 131.5 924.7 20064 2510.8 1077.0 362.6 133.4 937.8 20071 2554.0 1100.1 367.9 135.2 950.8 20072 2597.8 1123.4 373.6 137.1 963.7 20073 2642.4 1147.2 379.6 139.0 976.7 20074 2687.9 1171.5 385.7 140.9 989.8 20081 2734.5 1196.4 392.0 142.8 1003.2 20082 2782.2 1222.1 398.4 144.8 1016.9 20083 2831.1 1248.6 404.9 146.8 1030.8 20084 2881.3 1275.9 411.5 148.8 1045.1
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20001 1786.4 485.7 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -293.3 20052 2491.2 763.0 1061.8 17.0 358.6 234.6 56.2 -256.9 20053 2539.8 775.8 1082.4 17.0 365.6 242.8 56.2 -250.1 20054 2589.4 788.7 1103.5 17.0 372.7 251.3 56.2 -252.2 20061 2639.6 801.7 1124.9 17.0 379.9 259.9 56.2 -258.5 20062 2690.4 814.7 1146.7 17.0 387.3 268.5 56.2 -265.4 20063 2741.8 827.7 1169.0 17.0 394.8 277.1 56.2 -274.0 20064 2793.9 840.7 1191.7 17.0 402.5 285.8 56.2 -283.1 20071 2846.7 853.7 1214.9 17.0 410.3 294.6 56.2 -292.7 20072 2900.2 866.6 1238.5 17.0 418.3 303.6 56.2 -302.4 20073 2954.6 879.6 1262.5 17.0 426.4 312.9 56.2 -312.2 20074 3009.9 892.6 1287.1 17.0 434.7 322.3 56.2 -322.0 20081 3066.0 905.7 1312.1 17.0 443.1 331.9 56.2 -331.5 20082 3123.1 918.9 1337.6 17.0 451.7 341.7 56.2 -340.9 20083 3181.1 932.2 1363.5 17.0 460.5 351.6 56.2 -350.0 20084 3240.0 945.7 1390.0 17.0 469.5 361.7 56.2 -358.8
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 699.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 709.1 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 722.7 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 727.6 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 734.1 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 746.0 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 759.6 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 773.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 787.1 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 798.5 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 801.2 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 821.4 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 834.9 19.9 356.1 20052 1573.1 281.8 64.0 848.9 19.8 358.6 20053 1602.2 288.8 65.9 862.0 19.9 365.6 20054 1630.0 295.5 66.8 875.1 20.1 372.7 20061 1657.4 301.7 67.4 888.1 20.2 379.9 20062 1684.8 307.8 68.3 901.0 20.4 387.3 20063 1712.1 313.8 69.2 913.8 20.5 394.8 20064 1739.7 319.7 70.1 926.6 20.7 402.5 20071 1767.4 325.7 71.1 939.4 20.9 410.3 20072 1795.5 331.6 72.2 952.3 21.0 418.3 20073 1824.0 337.7 73.4 965.3 21.2 426.4 20074 1853.0 343.9 74.6 978.5 21.3 434.7 20081 1882.6 350.2 75.8 991.9 21.5 443.1 20082 1912.7 356.8 77.0 1005.6 21.6 451.7 20083 1943.6 363.4 78.3 1019.5 21.8 460.5 20084 1975.1 370.3 79.6 1033.8 22.0 469.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 7.4 20052 1546.4 1175.9 344.9 24.0 2.5 4.1 26.7 20053 1574.7 1196.8 352.1 24.2 2.5 4.1 27.5 20054 1603.8 1218.0 359.9 24.4 2.5 4.1 26.2 20061 1633.7 1239.3 368.2 24.5 2.5 4.1 23.7 20062 1664.1 1260.7 377.1 24.7 2.5 4.1 20.7 20063 1695.1 1282.1 386.5 24.9 2.5 4.1 17.0 20064 1726.5 1303.4 396.4 25.1 2.5 4.1 13.1 20071 1758.2 1324.8 406.6 25.3 2.5 4.1 9.2 20072 1790.3 1346.1 417.1 25.5 2.5 4.1 5.2 20073 1822.6 1367.5 427.8 25.7 2.5 4.1 1.4 20074 1855.1 1389.0 438.6 25.8 2.5 4.1 -2.1 20081 1888.0 1410.7 449.7 26.0 2.5 4.1 -5.4 20082 1921.2 1432.5 460.8 26.2 2.5 4.1 -8.5 20083 1954.8 1454.6 472.1 26.4 2.5 4.1 -11.2 20084 1988.8 1477.0 483.6 26.6 2.5 4.1 -13.7
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20001 -119.9 -377.7 -10.0 352.9 215.6 -60.9 20002 -119.8 -349.9 -30.1 370.8 182.8 -53.8 20003 -94.3 -435.6 -14.0 413.7 195.6 -65.4 20004 -139.4 -363.4 -0.7 408.5 175.6 -80.7 20011 -155.0 -356.0 38.5 401.5 159.7 -88.7 20012 -204.8 -232.1 56.9 366.9 122.6 -109.5 20013 -52.0 -149.5 61.8 343.7 -83.8 -120.2 20014 -260.0 16.1 81.6 332.4 -6.9 -163.2 20021 -85.4 -59.3 112.8 411.5 -209.0 -170.7 20022 -103.5 -20.9 85.4 449.6 -243.1 -167.5 20023 -173.5 29.5 104.2 453.3 -248.9 -164.7 20024 -203.3 80.3 104.5 479.0 -290.4 -170.0 20031 -197.3 45.8 128.8 519.2 -295.0 -201.5 20032 -195.2 116.7 120.1 493.6 -376.9 -158.2 20033 -184.1 183.6 122.9 488.9 -459.2 -152.1 20034 -238.9 190.1 113.9 475.2 -418.8 -121.5 20041 -272.7 163.6 132.4 554.6 -439.7 -138.3 20042 -333.4 123.1 133.0 636.5 -420.4 -138.8 20043 -332.2 209.7 56.1 641.0 -420.9 -153.6 20044 -276.1 -23.9 98.7 725.6 -393.3 -131.1 20051 -439.1 -44.4 168.8 752.3 -306.9 -130.6 20052 -499.2 7.3 165.7 718.0 -273.3 -118.5 20053 -480.7 -30.6 171.8 725.0 -266.4 -119.1 20054 -464.8 -44.6 178.0 721.4 -268.4 -121.8 20061 -450.2 -50.7 184.3 716.9 -274.5 -125.7 20062 -434.5 -54.4 190.6 709.9 -281.3 -130.2 20063 -419.6 -53.5 196.9 701.3 -289.8 -135.3 20064 -405.2 -49.7 203.2 691.2 -298.8 -140.7 20071 -391.2 -44.2 209.5 680.4 -308.2 -146.2 20072 -377.9 -37.7 215.8 669.3 -317.8 -151.7 20073 -365.3 -30.8 222.1 658.5 -327.5 -157.0 20074 -353.6 -23.8 228.4 648.2 -337.1 -162.1 20081 -342.9 -16.9 234.8 638.4 -346.5 -166.9 20082 -333.2 -10.1 241.2 629.3 -355.7 -171.5 20083 -324.6 -3.5 247.7 620.9 -364.6 -175.9 20084 -317.1 2.7 254.3 613.2 -373.2 -180.0 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9629.4 6613.9 876.9 1894.2 3842.8 20002 9822.8 6688.1 854.2 1938.3 3895.6 20003 9861.9 6783.8 861.3 1965.8 3956.7 20004 9953.6 6871.7 860.9 1990.5 4020.3 20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10717.0 7555.2 919.7 2156.0 4479.5 20032 10844.6 7635.3 942.2 2153.1 4540.0 20033 11087.6 7782.4 974.7 2213.5 4594.2 20034 11236.2 7866.7 963.6 2233.6 4669.5 20041 11457.2 8032.3 974.2 2302.7 4755.4 20042 11666.1 8145.7 974.6 2355.2 4815.9 20043 11818.8 8263.2 993.8 2378.4 4891.0 20044 11995.1 8416.1 1008.6 2437.1 4970.4 20051 12198.7 8535.7 1017.3 2476.6 5041.8 20052 12379.6 8676.3 1036.6 2531.8 5107.9 20053 12631.4 8810.1 1055.1 2569.4 5185.6 20054 12853.5 8943.8 1073.5 2605.7 5264.7 20061 13060.5 9076.7 1091.3 2641.3 5344.1 20062 13267.3 9208.6 1108.4 2676.4 5423.7 20063 13469.8 9339.8 1125.1 2711.0 5503.7 20064 13672.4 9470.7 1141.6 2745.3 5583.9 20071 13876.2 9601.7 1158.0 2779.3 5664.4 20072 14081.6 9733.3 1174.5 2813.3 5745.5 20073 14289.7 9866.2 1191.4 2847.5 5827.3 20074 14500.8 10000.9 1208.8 2882.1 5910.1 20081 14715.2 10138.0 1226.8 2917.1 5994.1 20082 14933.3 10277.6 1245.5 2952.6 6079.5 20083 15155.5 10420.1 1264.9 2988.8 6166.4 20084 15381.8 10565.8 1285.2 3025.8 6254.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1672.3 1642.4 1193.9 448.5 29.9 20002 1781.6 1685.3 1236.5 448.8 96.3 20003 1749.0 1690.6 1247.5 443.1 58.4 20004 1738.9 1697.5 1250.3 447.2 41.4 20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1610.0 1588.2 1048.2 540.0 21.8 20032 1619.3 1619.7 1066.8 552.9 -0.4 20033 1694.3 1683.7 1098.8 584.9 10.6 20034 1758.0 1728.2 1116.0 612.2 29.8 20041 1818.2 1772.7 1140.7 632.0 45.5 20042 1928.5 1856.6 1182.7 673.9 71.9 20043 1961.2 1908.7 1219.0 689.7 52.5 20044 2004.5 1952.6 1252.9 699.7 51.9 20051 2058.5 1998.6 1280.1 718.5 59.9 20052 2047.6 2054.2 1314.1 740.1 -6.6 20053 2133.4 2098.3 1347.8 750.5 35.1 20054 2178.7 2134.7 1378.4 756.4 44.0 20061 2208.3 2164.1 1405.8 758.3 44.3 20062 2236.3 2192.6 1434.6 758.0 43.6 20063 2258.9 2218.3 1461.4 756.9 40.5 20064 2280.3 2241.8 1485.8 756.0 38.5 20071 2302.2 2264.7 1508.9 755.8 37.5 20072 2324.9 2287.6 1531.2 756.5 37.2 20073 2348.8 2311.1 1552.9 758.2 37.7 20074 2374.2 2335.5 1574.4 761.2 38.7 20081 2401.0 2361.1 1595.8 765.3 40.0 20082 2429.2 2387.8 1617.3 770.5 41.4 20083 2458.7 2415.8 1639.0 776.8 43.0 20084 2489.5 2445.0 1661.0 784.0 44.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20001 -346.4 1055.1 1401.5 1689.6 565.3 1124.3 20002 -366.9 1091.8 1458.7 1720.0 586.6 1133.4 20003 -400.7 1122.4 1523.1 1729.8 581.2 1148.6 20004 -403.9 1115.8 1519.7 1746.9 582.0 1164.9 20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -502.6 1018.8 1521.4 2054.4 724.0 1330.4 20032 -500.5 1016.1 1516.6 2090.5 763.4 1327.1 20033 -495.3 1046.6 1541.9 2106.2 761.8 1344.4 20034 -505.0 1101.1 1606.1 2116.5 770.0 1346.5 20041 -559.5 1130.8 1690.3 2166.2 808.3 1357.9 20042 -613.1 1163.3 1776.4 2205.0 824.6 1380.4 20043 -638.0 1183.8 1821.8 2232.4 836.5 1395.9 20044 -685.4 1217.1 1902.5 2259.9 840.8 1419.1 20051 -697.4 1253.2 1950.6 2301.9 860.2 1441.7 20052 -679.8 1302.5 1982.3 2335.5 867.7 1467.8 20053 -686.3 1341.8 2028.1 2374.1 881.8 1492.3 20054 -682.1 1382.1 2064.3 2413.1 896.0 1517.1 20061 -677.0 1423.3 2100.3 2452.4 910.3 1542.1 20062 -669.4 1465.4 2134.8 2491.9 924.7 1567.2 20063 -660.2 1508.1 2168.4 2531.3 939.0 1592.3 20064 -649.5 1551.6 2201.2 2570.8 953.4 1617.5 20071 -638.1 1595.9 2234.0 2610.4 967.7 1642.7 20072 -626.5 1641.0 2267.5 2650.0 982.1 1667.9 20073 -615.1 1686.9 2301.9 2689.7 996.4 1693.3 20074 -604.1 1733.7 2337.8 2729.7 1010.9 1718.8 20081 -593.7 1781.5 2375.2 2769.9 1025.4 1744.5 20082 -584.0 1830.4 2414.4 2810.5 1040.1 1770.4 20083 -575.0 1880.4 2455.4 2851.6 1054.9 1796.7 20084 -566.6 1931.6 2498.2 2893.1 1069.9 1823.2
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20001 9695.6 6661.1 872.8 1917.2 3871.1 20002 9847.9 6703.5 851.3 1944.0 3908.2 20003 9836.6 6768.0 863.8 1954.9 3949.3 20004 9887.8 6824.9 865.4 1972.7 3986.8 20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10138.6 7195.1 979.1 2069.5 4146.5 20032 10230.4 7262.8 1014.0 2079.1 4169.7 20033 10410.9 7372.3 1060.9 2121.2 4190.2 20034 10502.6 7426.7 1060.0 2137.3 4229.4 20041 10612.5 7512.5 1071.6 2171.9 4269.0 20042 10704.1 7547.2 1072.5 2186.1 4288.6 20043 10808.9 7631.4 1100.4 2206.9 4324.1 20044 10897.1 7713.7 1115.1 2236.5 4362.1 20051 10999.3 7779.9 1122.3 2265.6 4392.0 20052 11092.0 7846.2 1144.9 2283.9 4417.4 20053 11201.4 7890.8 1154.1 2295.4 4441.3 20054 11281.4 7935.3 1163.1 2305.8 4466.4 20061 11346.9 7978.9 1171.4 2315.7 4491.7 20062 11413.3 8022.0 1179.1 2325.3 4517.6 20063 11476.7 8065.2 1186.4 2334.8 4544.1 20064 11541.4 8109.0 1193.5 2344.2 4571.2 20071 11608.4 8153.6 1200.7 2353.8 4599.0 20072 11677.7 8199.3 1208.2 2363.6 4627.6 20073 11749.7 8246.6 1216.0 2373.7 4656.9 20074 11824.4 8295.7 1224.3 2384.2 4687.2 20081 11901.7 8346.6 1233.3 2395.1 4718.2 20082 11981.3 8399.5 1242.8 2406.4 4750.2 20083 12063.2 8454.2 1253.0 2418.2 4783.0 20084 12147.3 8510.9 1263.9 2430.4 4816.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20001 1677.9 1651.0 1196.6 454.4 26.9 20002 1788.2 1688.9 1238.5 450.4 99.3 20003 1742.6 1686.4 1245.2 441.2 56.2 20004 1732.9 1689.4 1247.8 441.6 43.5 20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1560.4 1536.4 1051.6 484.8 24.0 20032 1568.5 1568.9 1072.9 496.0 -0.4 20033 1632.2 1622.9 1101.7 521.2 9.3 20034 1678.4 1649.4 1113.7 535.7 29.0 20041 1719.3 1677.4 1135.0 542.4 41.9 20042 1802.3 1736.7 1171.6 565.1 65.6 20043 1824.0 1773.6 1204.8 568.8 50.4 20044 1856.2 1806.1 1235.1 571.0 50.1 20051 1894.5 1836.3 1252.2 584.1 58.2 20052 1871.0 1877.4 1279.5 597.9 -6.4 20053 1933.9 1900.1 1299.6 600.5 33.8 20054 1957.9 1916.0 1316.5 599.4 41.9 20061 1967.5 1925.7 1330.3 595.4 41.8 20062 1976.0 1935.1 1345.3 589.8 40.9 20063 1979.9 1942.3 1358.5 583.8 37.6 20064 1983.0 1947.5 1369.4 578.1 35.5 20071 1986.7 1952.5 1379.3 573.2 34.2 20072 1991.3 1957.6 1388.5 569.2 33.7 20073 1997.1 1963.3 1397.2 566.1 33.9 20074 2004.2 1969.7 1405.8 563.9 34.5 20081 2012.3 1977.0 1414.3 562.7 35.4 20082 2021.5 1985.1 1422.8 562.4 36.4 20083 2031.6 1994.1 1431.3 562.8 37.4 20084 2042.5 2004.0 1440.0 564.0 38.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20001 -350.6 1060.9 1411.5 1707.3 20002 -374.5 1092.0 1466.5 1730.5 20003 -395.6 1120.0 1515.6 1721.5 20004 -397.2 1112.3 1509.5 1727.1 20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -510.7 1009.7 1520.4 1884.4 20032 -528.4 1004.5 1532.9 1917.4 20033 -516.2 1032.2 1548.4 1920.0 20034 -530.2 1078.4 1608.6 1922.5 20041 -563.0 1091.8 1654.8 1938.3 20042 -601.7 1110.2 1711.9 1949.3 20043 -606.5 1125.0 1731.5 1958.2 20044 -634.0 1144.5 1778.5 1962.5 20051 -645.4 1165.3 1810.7 1971.6 20052 -601.3 1200.3 1801.6 1981.3 20053 -608.2 1223.6 1831.9 1990.2 20054 -605.7 1247.4 1853.1 1999.1 20061 -602.2 1271.6 1873.8 2008.0 20062 -596.5 1296.3 1892.8 2017.1 20063 -589.3 1321.5 1910.8 2026.1 20064 -580.6 1347.2 1927.8 2035.3 20071 -571.2 1373.4 1944.5 2044.4 20072 -561.4 1400.0 1961.5 2053.7 20073 -551.8 1427.2 1979.0 2063.0 20074 -542.5 1455.0 1997.5 2072.3 20081 -533.8 1483.2 2017.0 2081.7 20082 -525.6 1512.0 2037.6 2091.2 20083 -518.0 1541.4 2059.5 2100.7 20084 -511.1 1571.4 2082.5 2110.2
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20001 1999.2 975.4 233.0 105.5 685.3 20002 2006.8 987.4 225.5 108.3 685.6 20003 2032.2 1011.7 215.6 108.4 696.5 20004 2034.0 1021.7 203.7 109.2 699.4 20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 110.4 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 110.0 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 107.0 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 106.6 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 105.0 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 106.9 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 107.0 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 105.8 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 109.0 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 110.8 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 111.2 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 112.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 115.8 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 115.5 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 116.2 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 118.7 823.4 20051 2165.8 910.9 291.7 119.8 843.4 20052 2234.3 930.3 330.8 122.2 851.0 20053 2289.7 957.3 340.7 124.1 867.6 20054 2337.2 982.9 345.3 126.0 883.1 20061 2381.1 1007.0 348.8 127.8 897.4 20062 2425.0 1030.8 353.2 129.7 911.3 20063 2467.9 1054.0 357.7 131.5 924.7 20064 2510.8 1077.0 362.6 133.4 937.8 20071 2554.0 1100.1 367.9 135.2 950.8 20072 2597.8 1123.4 373.6 137.1 963.7 20073 2642.4 1147.2 379.6 139.0 976.7 20074 2687.9 1171.5 385.7 140.9 989.8 20081 2734.5 1196.4 392.0 142.8 1003.2 20082 2782.2 1222.1 398.4 144.8 1016.9 20083 2831.1 1248.6 404.9 146.8 1030.8 20084 2881.3 1275.9 411.5 148.8 1045.1
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20001 1786.4 485.7 752.0 743.2 8.8 239.0 265.0 44.7 212.8 20002 1825.3 505.1 767.7 758.6 9.1 242.8 265.0 44.7 181.5 20003 1840.9 501.5 774.7 763.3 11.4 255.0 262.9 46.8 191.3 20004 1861.4 505.0 796.1 771.5 24.6 252.6 259.7 48.0 172.6 20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 954.2 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 966.8 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 975.7 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 979.9 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 1015.4 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 1011.8 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1021.5 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1036.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1079.7 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -293.3 20052 2491.2 763.0 1078.8 1061.8 17.0 358.6 234.6 56.2 -256.9 20053 2539.8 775.8 1099.4 1082.4 17.0 365.6 242.8 56.2 -250.1 20054 2589.4 788.7 1120.5 1103.5 17.0 372.7 251.3 56.2 -252.2 20061 2639.6 801.7 1141.9 1124.9 17.0 379.9 259.9 56.2 -258.5 20062 2690.4 814.7 1163.7 1146.7 17.0 387.3 268.5 56.2 -265.4 20063 2741.8 827.7 1186.0 1169.0 17.0 394.8 277.1 56.2 -274.0 20064 2793.9 840.7 1208.7 1191.7 17.0 402.5 285.8 56.2 -283.1 20071 2846.7 853.7 1231.9 1214.9 17.0 410.3 294.6 56.2 -292.7 20072 2900.2 866.6 1255.5 1238.5 17.0 418.3 303.6 56.2 -302.4 20073 2954.6 879.6 1279.5 1262.5 17.0 426.4 312.9 56.2 -312.2 20074 3009.9 892.6 1304.1 1287.1 17.0 434.7 322.3 56.2 -322.0 20081 3066.0 905.7 1329.1 1312.1 17.0 443.1 331.9 56.2 -331.5 20082 3123.1 918.9 1354.6 1337.6 17.0 451.7 341.7 56.2 -340.9 20083 3181.1 932.2 1380.5 1363.5 17.0 460.5 351.6 56.2 -350.0 20084 3240.0 945.7 1407.0 1390.0 17.0 469.5 361.7 56.2 -358.8
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20001 1163.5 231.6 37.8 644.8 10.3 239.0 20002 1186.7 243.7 36.7 652.8 10.7 242.8 20003 1197.1 236.3 35.0 659.6 11.2 255.0 20004 1199.5 234.8 32.8 667.5 11.8 252.6 20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 674.2 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 676.5 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 681.2 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 690.8 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 699.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 709.1 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 722.7 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 727.6 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 734.1 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 746.0 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 759.6 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 773.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 787.1 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 798.5 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 801.2 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 821.4 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 834.9 19.9 356.1 20052 1573.1 281.8 64.0 848.9 19.8 358.6 20053 1602.2 288.8 65.9 862.0 19.9 365.6 20054 1630.0 295.5 66.8 875.1 20.1 372.7 20061 1657.4 301.7 67.4 888.1 20.2 379.9 20062 1684.8 307.8 68.3 901.0 20.4 387.3 20063 1712.1 313.8 69.2 913.8 20.5 394.8 20064 1739.7 319.7 70.1 926.6 20.7 402.5 20071 1767.4 325.7 71.1 939.4 20.9 410.3 20072 1795.5 331.6 72.2 952.3 21.0 418.3 20073 1824.0 337.7 73.4 965.3 21.2 426.4 20074 1853.0 343.9 74.6 978.5 21.3 434.7 20081 1882.6 350.2 75.8 991.9 21.5 443.1 20082 1912.7 356.8 77.0 1005.6 21.6 451.7 20083 1943.6 363.4 78.3 1019.5 21.8 460.5 20084 1975.1 370.3 79.6 1033.8 22.0 469.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20001 1107.5 900.6 222.8 -5.7 1.9 -8.3 0.0 56.0 20002 1126.9 910.8 230.9 -5.4 1.9 -7.5 0.0 59.8 20003 1148.2 923.4 237.6 -4.2 1.9 -6.7 0.0 48.9 20004 1164.1 936.3 238.4 -2.7 1.9 -6.0 0.0 35.4 20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 0.0 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 0.0 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 0.0 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 0.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 0.0 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 0.0 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 0.0 7.4 20052 1546.4 1175.9 344.9 24.0 2.5 4.1 0.0 26.7 20053 1574.7 1196.8 352.1 24.2 2.5 4.1 0.0 27.5 20054 1603.8 1218.0 359.9 24.4 2.5 4.1 0.0 26.2 20061 1633.7 1239.3 368.2 24.5 2.5 4.1 0.0 23.7 20062 1664.1 1260.7 377.1 24.7 2.5 4.1 0.0 20.7 20063 1695.1 1282.1 386.5 24.9 2.5 4.1 0.0 17.0 20064 1726.5 1303.4 396.4 25.1 2.5 4.1 0.0 13.1 20071 1758.2 1324.8 406.6 25.3 2.5 4.1 0.0 9.2 20072 1790.3 1346.1 417.1 25.5 2.5 4.1 0.0 5.2 20073 1822.6 1367.5 427.8 25.7 2.5 4.1 0.0 1.4 20074 1855.1 1389.0 438.6 25.8 2.5 4.1 0.0 -2.1 20081 1888.0 1410.7 449.7 26.0 2.5 4.1 0.0 -5.4 20082 1921.2 1432.5 460.8 26.2 2.5 4.1 0.0 -8.5 20083 1954.8 1454.6 472.1 26.4 2.5 4.1 0.0 -11.2 20084 1988.8 1477.0 483.6 26.6 2.5 4.1 0.0 -13.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
20001 99.3 99.3 100.5 98.8 99.3 20002 99.7 99.8 100.3 99.7 99.7 20003 100.3 100.2 99.7 100.6 100.2 20004 100.7 100.7 99.5 100.9 100.8 20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.9 104.2 108.0 20032 106.0 105.1 92.9 103.6 108.9 20033 106.5 105.6 91.9 104.4 109.6 20034 107.0 105.9 90.9 104.5 110.4 20041 108.0 106.9 90.9 106.0 111.4 20042 109.0 107.9 90.9 107.7 112.3 20043 109.3 108.3 90.3 107.8 113.1 20044 110.1 109.1 90.4 109.0 113.9 20051 110.9 109.7 90.6 109.3 114.8 20052 111.6 110.6 90.5 110.9 115.6 20053 112.8 111.6 91.4 111.9 116.8 20054 113.9 112.7 92.3 113.0 117.9 20061 115.1 113.8 93.2 114.1 119.0 20062 116.2 114.8 94.0 115.1 120.1 20063 117.4 115.8 94.8 116.1 121.1 20064 118.5 116.8 95.6 117.1 122.2 20071 119.5 117.8 96.4 118.1 123.2 20072 120.6 118.7 97.2 119.0 124.2 20073 121.6 119.6 98.0 120.0 125.1 20074 122.6 120.6 98.7 120.9 126.1 20081 123.6 121.5 99.5 121.8 127.0 20082 124.6 122.4 100.2 122.7 128.0 20083 125.6 123.3 100.9 123.6 128.9 20084 126.6 124.1 101.7 124.5 129.9
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
20001 99.5 99.8 98.7 99.5 99.3 99.0 20002 99.8 99.8 99.6 100.0 99.5 99.4 20003 100.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.5 100.5 20004 100.5 100.2 101.3 100.3 100.7 101.1 20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.0 20032 103.2 99.4 111.5 101.2 98.9 109.0 20033 103.8 99.7 112.2 101.4 99.6 109.7 20034 104.8 100.2 114.3 102.1 99.8 110.1 20041 105.7 100.5 116.5 103.6 102.1 111.8 20042 106.9 100.9 119.3 104.8 103.8 113.1 20043 107.6 101.2 121.3 105.2 105.2 114.0 20044 108.1 101.4 122.5 106.3 107.0 115.2 20051 108.9 102.2 123.0 107.5 107.7 116.8 20052 109.4 102.7 123.8 108.5 110.0 117.9 20053 110.4 103.7 125.0 109.7 110.7 119.3 20054 111.4 104.7 126.2 110.8 111.4 120.7 20061 112.4 105.7 127.4 111.9 112.1 122.1 20062 113.3 106.6 128.5 113.0 112.8 123.5 20063 114.2 107.6 129.7 114.1 113.5 124.9 20064 115.1 108.5 130.8 115.2 114.2 126.3 20071 116.0 109.4 131.8 116.2 114.9 127.7 20072 116.9 110.3 132.9 117.2 115.6 129.0 20073 117.7 111.1 134.0 118.2 116.3 130.4 20074 118.6 112.0 135.0 119.2 117.0 131.7 20081 119.4 112.8 136.0 120.1 117.8 133.1 20082 120.3 113.7 137.0 121.1 118.5 134.4 20083 121.2 114.5 138.0 122.0 119.2 135.7 20084 122.0 115.3 139.0 122.9 120.0 137.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment