US Forecast: October 31, 2005
Forecast Period

2005:4--2009:4 (17 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 28, 2005.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2005:3. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: October 31, 2005, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). Beginning with this forecast, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2005:3.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2005:3-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.3       
COG           3.0                  4.1       
JG            1.0                 -1.0       
TRGS          8.0                  6.6       
TRSH         10.0                  6.4       
COS           3.0                  4.4       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  5.3
PIM           2.5                  0.8

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The hurricanes in 2005:3 will have a large effect on capital consumption and thus on corporate profits. At the time of this forecast sufficient data are not available to account for these effects, and for the present forecast the increases in capital consumption have essentially been ignored. (The effects have essentially been put in the discrepancy variable DISBA.) This will be changed in the next forecast.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 5.2, 2.9, 2.3, and 2.2 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate at the end of 2006 is 4.6 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 2.7, 2.8, 2.4, and 2.0 percent, respectively. The reason for the large change in 2005:4 is a large predicted increase in inventory investment. In the last two quarters real final sales have grown more rapidly than real output, and the model is predicting a positive inventory correction.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be 4.6 percent in 2005:4 and then 4.4, 4.4, and 4.3 percent in the next three quarters. These predicted values are higher than the actual values in the past few years and probably higher than most others are predicting. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 4.4 percent by the end of 2006.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $310 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) By the end of 2009 it is predicted to be $395.7 billion.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $790 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is large by historical standards.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending or hurricane relief. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or further depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period. (If you increase PIM, inflation will be even higher than is currently forecast.)

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1200. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1000, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: October 31, 2005
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10138.6 1.7 4146.5 1.9 2069.5 3.2 979.1 3.6 20032 10230.4 3.7 4169.7 2.3 2079.1 1.9 1014.0 15.0 20033 10410.9 7.2 4190.2 2.0 2121.2 8.3 1060.9 19.8 20034 10502.6 3.6 4229.4 3.8 2137.3 3.1 1060.0 -0.3 20041 10612.5 4.3 4269.0 3.8 2171.9 6.6 1071.6 4.4 20042 10704.1 3.5 4288.6 1.8 2186.1 2.6 1072.5 0.3 20043 10808.9 4.0 4324.1 3.4 2206.9 3.9 1100.4 10.8 20044 10897.1 3.3 4362.1 3.6 2236.5 5.5 1115.1 5.5 20051 10999.3 3.8 4392.0 2.8 2265.6 5.3 1122.3 2.6 20052 11089.2 3.3 4417.6 2.4 2285.9 3.6 1143.9 7.9 20053 11193.2 3.8 4452.5 3.2 2300.6 2.6 1173.5 10.8 20054 11336.4 5.2 4473.7 1.9 2314.9 2.5 1183.4 3.4 20061 11417.8 2.9 4496.8 2.1 2328.1 2.3 1193.0 3.3 20062 11482.2 2.3 4520.9 2.2 2340.1 2.1 1201.9 3.0 20063 11543.5 2.2 4545.9 2.2 2351.2 1.9 1209.9 2.7 20064 11599.6 2.0 4571.6 2.3 2361.3 1.7 1217.3 2.5 20071 11657.8 2.0 4598.1 2.3 2371.0 1.6 1224.3 2.3 20072 11719.2 2.1 4625.3 2.4 2380.5 1.6 1231.0 2.2 20073 11783.9 2.2 4653.4 2.4 2389.9 1.6 1237.8 2.2 20074 11852.2 2.3 4682.3 2.5 2399.6 1.6 1244.9 2.3 20081 11923.6 2.4 4712.0 2.6 2409.5 1.7 1252.4 2.4 20082 11997.8 2.5 4742.7 2.6 2419.9 1.7 1260.4 2.6 20083 12074.8 2.6 4774.2 2.7 2430.7 1.8 1269.0 2.8 20084 12154.3 2.7 4806.6 2.7 2442.0 1.9 1278.2 2.9 20091 12236.2 2.7 4839.8 2.8 2453.8 2.0 1288.1 3.1 20092 12320.4 2.8 4873.9 2.8 2466.2 2.0 1298.6 3.3 20093 12406.9 2.8 4908.7 2.9 2478.9 2.1 1309.7 3.5 20094 12495.5 2.9 4944.3 2.9 2492.2 2.2 1321.5 3.6
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20011 378.5 12.9 1042.9 -10.9 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 385.9 8.1 1012.9 -11.0 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 382.7 -3.3 995.1 -6.8 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 375.5 -7.3 947.2 -17.9 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 386.8 12.6 908.4 -15.4 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 860.9 -19.3 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 875.3 6.9 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 866.0 -4.2 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 415.8 6.6 882.6 7.9 24.0 1520.4 -2.5 20032 425.8 9.9 890.7 3.8 -0.4 1532.9 3.3 20033 452.5 27.6 903.1 5.7 9.3 1548.4 4.1 20034 460.2 6.9 896.0 -3.1 29.0 1608.6 16.5 20041 453.0 -6.1 920.2 11.2 41.9 1654.8 12.0 20042 486.3 32.8 969.9 23.4 65.6 1711.9 14.5 20043 484.3 -1.7 971.6 0.7 50.4 1731.5 4.7 20044 485.6 1.1 994.0 9.5 50.1 1778.5 11.3 20051 499.2 11.7 1016.1 9.2 58.2 1810.7 7.4 20052 518.8 16.7 1044.4 11.6 -1.7 1809.6 -0.2 20053 524.2 4.3 1058.9 5.7 -16.6 1809.4 0.0 20054 526.3 1.6 1087.8 11.4 47.5 1845.9 8.3 20061 523.5 -2.1 1111.0 8.8 56.6 1875.0 6.5 20062 517.8 -4.3 1129.5 6.8 54.3 1901.9 5.9 20063 510.5 -5.5 1146.6 6.2 49.3 1925.7 5.1 20064 502.7 -6.0 1157.8 4.0 42.3 1946.0 4.3 20071 495.0 -6.0 1165.8 2.8 37.6 1963.9 3.7 20072 488.1 -5.4 1172.4 2.3 34.7 1980.7 3.5 20073 482.3 -4.7 1178.0 1.9 33.4 1997.2 3.4 20074 477.6 -3.9 1183.1 1.8 33.3 2013.9 3.4 20081 473.9 -3.0 1188.0 1.7 33.9 2031.3 3.5 20082 471.4 -2.1 1192.7 1.6 34.9 2049.5 3.6 20083 470.0 -1.2 1197.3 1.6 36.0 2068.7 3.8 20084 469.4 -0.4 1202.0 1.6 37.2 2089.1 4.0 20091 469.8 0.3 1206.8 1.6 38.3 2110.6 4.2 20092 470.9 1.0 1211.7 1.7 39.4 2133.3 4.4 20093 472.7 1.5 1217.0 1.7 40.5 2157.3 4.6 20094 475.1 2.1 1222.5 1.8 41.5 2182.5 4.8
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20011 3.3 3.2 8.5 5.1 20012 3.3 3.4 2.9 -0.5 20013 1.5 1.1 2.1 0.9 20014 2.0 1.2 3.7 2.4 20021 1.5 0.6 4.7 4.0 20022 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.3 20023 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.0 20024 2.2 1.9 0.5 -1.4 20031 3.1 2.4 4.3 1.8 20032 1.1 0.5 9.8 9.2 20033 1.9 1.2 3.3 2.1 20034 1.8 1.1 1.7 0.7 20041 3.7 2.8 4.6 1.8 20042 3.9 3.7 5.5 1.7 20043 1.3 2.2 3.1 0.9 20044 2.7 2.8 11.5 8.5 20051 3.0 3.1 4.4 1.3 20052 2.7 2.6 4.4 1.7 20053 3.0 3.5 2.8 -0.7 20054 4.6 4.5 6.2 1.6 20061 4.4 4.5 6.2 1.7 20062 4.4 4.4 6.2 1.7 20063 4.3 4.3 6.1 1.7 20064 4.2 4.1 6.0 1.8 20071 4.0 4.0 5.9 1.8 20072 3.9 3.8 5.8 1.9 20073 3.7 3.6 5.6 1.9 20074 3.6 3.5 5.5 2.0 20081 3.4 3.3 5.4 2.0 20082 3.3 3.2 5.4 2.1 20083 3.2 3.1 5.3 2.1 20084 3.2 3.0 5.2 2.1 20091 3.1 3.0 5.2 2.2 20092 3.1 2.9 5.2 2.2 20093 3.0 2.9 5.2 2.2 20094 3.0 2.9 5.1 2.2
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1398.0 3.0 63.9 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1426.0 8.3 64.8 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1472.0 13.6 69.9 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1545.3 21.4 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1521.2 -6.1 66.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1544.0 6.1 66.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1575.3 8.4 68.2 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1607.5 8.4 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1645.6 9.8 74.0 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1692.8 12.0 73.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1695.4 0.6 75.6 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1741.0 11.2 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1783.5 10.1 74.1 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1814.0 7.0 79.1 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1843.3 6.6 72.1 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1893.4 11.3 65.6 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1910.0 3.5 74.7 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1929.1 4.1 73.8 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1914.5 -3.0 73.2 20054 3.6 5.2 6.0 1927.4 2.7 71.5 20061 3.9 5.3 6.1 1943.3 3.3 70.6 20062 4.1 5.4 6.3 1961.6 3.8 69.7 20063 4.3 5.6 6.5 1981.7 4.2 69.1 20064 4.4 5.7 6.7 2003.6 4.5 68.7 20071 4.4 5.8 6.8 2027.2 4.8 68.4 20072 4.4 5.9 6.9 2052.5 5.1 68.2 20073 4.4 5.9 6.9 2079.4 5.3 68.1 20074 4.3 6.0 7.0 2107.8 5.6 68.2 20081 4.3 6.0 7.0 2137.5 5.8 68.3 20082 4.2 6.1 7.1 2168.6 5.9 68.5 20083 4.2 6.1 7.1 2200.8 6.1 68.8 20084 4.1 6.1 7.1 2234.3 6.2 69.2 20091 4.0 6.1 7.1 2268.8 6.3 69.6 20092 4.0 6.1 7.1 2304.3 6.4 70.1 20093 3.9 6.1 7.0 2340.8 6.5 70.6 20094 3.9 6.1 7.0 2378.2 6.5 71.2
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20011 4.2 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.1 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.6 -0.1 -2.3 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 -0.2 -0.4 3.1 -1.9 -1.0 6.9 20014 5.5 0.7 0.4 4.2 -2.6 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -3.0 -0.4 8.2 20022 5.8 0.2 -0.5 5.2 -0.1 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.7 -0.4 1.4 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.8 -0.6 1.0 1.1 -0.1 0.5 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.6 3.2 -1.3 0.7 9.0 20033 6.1 0.4 -1.2 0.0 1.4 -0.2 8.9 20034 5.9 1.2 -0.4 2.0 0.9 2.1 8.6 20041 5.6 -1.1 -0.9 4.2 1.3 1.5 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 2.1 1.4 8.2 20043 5.5 0.9 0.7 3.7 2.3 2.1 8.1 20044 5.4 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.1 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.8 2.5 0.6 7.8 20052 5.1 1.0 0.6 6.2 2.1 3.2 7.6 20053 5.0 1.5 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.6 7.5 20054 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.4 2.8 1.9 7.3 20061 4.7 0.5 1.0 2.5 2.8 1.9 7.1 20062 4.6 0.5 1.0 2.5 2.4 1.7 7.0 20063 4.6 0.5 1.0 2.6 2.0 1.4 7.0 20064 4.6 0.5 1.1 2.5 1.6 1.1 7.1 20071 4.7 0.5 1.1 2.5 1.3 0.9 7.3 20072 4.9 0.5 1.1 2.4 1.0 0.8 7.5 20073 5.0 0.5 1.2 2.4 0.8 0.7 7.7 20074 5.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 0.7 0.7 7.9 20081 5.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.7 8.2 20082 5.4 0.5 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.7 8.4 20083 5.5 0.5 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.7 8.6 20084 5.6 0.5 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.8 8.8 20091 5.7 0.5 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.8 9.0 20092 5.8 0.4 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.8 9.2 20093 5.9 0.4 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.9 9.3 20094 6.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.9 9.4
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20011 -8007.6 523.8 -13.0 2.0 -2.3 410.9 156.6 32.6 20012 3111.0 534.9 8.7 1.2 5.4 376.3 123.7 25.8 20013 -8983.3 459.3 -45.6 3.6 1.6 352.5 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5656.5 407.1 -38.3 0.6 3.4 341.9 -4.9 -30.6 20021 28.3 415.7 8.7 3.0 3.6 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6650.9 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.7 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -7921.5 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.1 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3209.9 576.5 61.4 1.8 -0.8 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1283.3 578.3 1.2 2.0 2.0 529.1 -295.8 -67.9 20032 6349.0 584.0 4.0 2.2 5.6 503.0 -373.8 -26.2 20033 1819.1 629.1 34.6 2.6 7.1 499.0 -456.1 -13.9 20034 6841.1 705.7 58.3 2.0 1.8 486.5 -404.8 12.4 20041 1276.1 706.2 0.3 1.9 2.5 566.0 -429.4 -6.5 20042 1016.9 748.8 26.4 1.7 4.8 649.1 -413.5 -1.6 20043 -523.8 775.4 14.9 1.3 4.7 653.1 -411.6 -19.3 20044 6519.5 804.8 16.1 2.4 0.2 738.6 -371.7 3.9 20051 -345.1 1001.2 139.5 0.5 1.6 766.8 -298.2 7.4 20052 1405.9 1065.2 28.1 0.1 2.2 746.8 -285.5 21.1 20053 1200.0 1032.4 -11.8 -1.1 3.8 747.6 -387.9 -0.4 20054 535.6 946.6 -29.3 -0.3 2.0 783.7 -309.4 -3.3 20061 999.1 944.2 -1.0 0.1 0.0 789.0 -305.1 -5.5 20062 939.5 935.5 -3.6 0.3 -0.1 791.2 -305.6 -9.0 20063 996.4 931.1 -1.9 0.4 0.2 789.4 -308.1 -13.5 20064 1068.9 928.5 -1.1 0.6 0.5 783.2 -313.3 -19.1 20071 1165.9 932.5 1.7 0.7 1.0 774.0 -319.4 -25.2 20072 1248.2 942.0 4.2 0.8 1.3 763.2 -326.2 -31.7 20073 1323.3 955.9 6.1 0.8 1.6 751.7 -333.3 -38.4 20074 1395.8 973.5 7.5 0.9 1.8 740.2 -340.7 -44.9 20081 1461.6 993.6 8.5 1.0 2.0 729.0 -348.1 -51.4 20082 1521.0 1015.7 9.2 1.0 2.1 718.4 -355.6 -57.7 20083 1575.7 1039.5 9.7 1.1 2.1 708.5 -363.0 -63.7 20084 1627.5 1064.6 10.0 1.1 2.2 699.4 -370.2 -69.5 20091 1677.0 1091.0 10.3 1.2 2.2 691.0 -377.2 -75.0 20092 1724.2 1118.5 10.5 1.2 2.3 683.5 -383.8 -80.3 20093 1769.4 1147.1 10.6 1.2 2.3 676.8 -390.0 -85.4 20094 1812.8 1176.8 10.8 1.3 2.3 670.7 -395.7 -90.2
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.2 -3.8 -2.9 933.3 6.4 11.3 20032 43.1 -1.8 -2.0 948.7 6.8 -4.4 20033 -3.9 4.8 11.5 957.1 3.6 2.6 20034 6.1 -4.2 19.1 965.7 3.6 1.1 20041 19.2 -2.8 5.1 988.1 9.6 9.5 20042 6.5 3.4 6.9 994.9 2.8 6.5 20043 5.4 0.0 5.4 1004.3 3.8 5.7 20044 -3.2 1.9 7.1 1018.8 5.9 6.8 20051 4.2 3.1 7.5 1047.9 11.9 2.8 20052 5.4 5.8 10.7 1061.5 5.3 8.2 20053 15.0 -1.7 0.8 1077.3 6.1 9.3 20054 3.0 3.0 8.0 1098.2 8.0 2.5 20061 3.0 3.0 8.0 1119.6 8.0 2.5 20062 3.0 3.0 8.0 1141.3 8.0 2.5 20063 3.0 3.0 8.0 1163.5 8.0 2.5 20064 3.0 3.0 8.0 1186.1 8.0 2.5 20071 3.0 3.0 8.0 1209.1 8.0 2.5 20072 3.0 3.0 8.0 1232.6 8.0 2.5 20073 3.0 3.0 8.0 1256.6 8.0 2.5 20074 3.0 3.0 8.0 1281.0 8.0 2.5 20081 3.0 3.0 8.0 1305.9 8.0 2.5 20082 3.0 3.0 8.0 1331.2 8.0 2.5 20083 3.0 3.0 8.0 1357.1 8.0 2.5 20084 3.0 3.0 8.0 1383.5 8.0 2.5 20091 3.0 3.0 8.0 1410.3 8.0 2.5 20092 3.0 3.0 8.0 1437.7 8.0 2.5 20093 3.0 3.0 8.0 1465.7 8.0 2.5 20094 3.0 3.0 8.0 1494.1 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 94.8 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 96.1 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 96.1 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 97.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 100.3 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 99.9 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 100.3 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 101.7 823.4 20051 2160.9 908.3 291.7 102.5 841.1 20052 2205.2 930.8 300.8 106.2 850.3 20053 2142.2 948.0 294.4 105.1 857.3 20054 2266.7 986.9 278.3 106.8 877.6 20061 2318.0 1016.6 278.5 108.4 897.3 20062 2365.0 1044.7 277.5 110.1 915.5 20063 2410.6 1071.6 277.3 111.8 932.7 20064 2454.0 1097.2 277.5 113.4 948.7 20071 2497.1 1121.8 279.0 115.0 964.0 20072 2540.1 1146.0 281.6 116.7 978.7 20073 2583.3 1169.8 285.0 118.3 993.1 20074 2627.0 1193.5 289.2 119.8 1007.3 20081 2671.3 1217.4 293.8 121.5 1021.4 20082 2716.2 1241.5 298.9 123.1 1035.5 20083 2761.9 1265.9 304.3 124.7 1049.7 20084 2808.4 1290.7 310.0 126.4 1064.1 20091 2856.0 1316.1 315.9 128.1 1078.7 20092 2904.7 1342.1 322.0 129.8 1093.6 20093 2954.6 1368.7 328.4 131.6 1108.7 20094 3005.8 1396.1 335.0 133.4 1124.1
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -298.2 20052 2490.7 762.8 1061.5 18.2 358.6 234.4 55.2 -285.5 20053 2530.1 783.1 1077.3 22.8 354.1 235.1 57.7 -387.9 20054 2576.1 797.0 1098.2 22.8 361.0 239.4 57.7 -309.4 20061 2623.1 811.1 1119.6 22.8 368.0 244.0 57.7 -305.1 20062 2670.6 825.3 1141.3 22.8 375.1 248.3 57.7 -305.6 20063 2718.7 839.6 1163.5 22.8 382.4 252.7 57.7 -308.1 20064 2767.3 853.8 1186.1 22.8 389.9 257.0 57.7 -313.3 20071 2816.5 868.0 1209.1 22.8 397.4 261.4 57.7 -319.4 20072 2866.2 882.1 1232.6 22.8 405.2 265.9 57.7 -326.2 20073 2916.6 896.1 1256.6 22.8 413.0 270.4 57.7 -333.3 20074 2967.7 910.1 1281.0 22.8 421.0 275.1 57.7 -340.7 20081 3019.4 924.0 1305.9 22.8 429.2 279.8 57.7 -348.1 20082 3071.8 937.9 1331.2 22.8 437.6 284.6 57.7 -355.6 20083 3124.8 951.8 1357.1 22.8 446.1 289.4 57.7 -363.0 20084 3178.6 965.8 1383.5 22.8 454.7 294.2 57.7 -370.2 20091 3233.2 979.8 1410.3 22.8 463.6 299.0 57.7 -377.2 20092 3288.5 994.0 1437.7 22.8 472.6 303.7 57.7 -383.8 20093 3344.6 1008.3 1465.7 22.8 481.7 308.4 57.7 -390.0 20094 3401.6 1022.7 1494.1 22.8 491.1 313.1 57.7 -395.7
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 700.8 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 712.2 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 725.2 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 738.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 751.3 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 762.0 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 769.3 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 783.7 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 796.5 19.9 356.1 20052 1566.9 281.8 57.7 810.0 19.8 358.6 20053 1571.5 274.7 56.5 822.0 19.9 354.1 20054 1598.4 284.7 53.4 835.0 20.0 361.0 20061 1626.3 292.3 53.4 848.1 20.2 368.0 20062 1653.8 299.5 53.2 861.3 20.3 375.1 20063 1681.1 306.3 53.2 874.3 20.5 382.4 20064 1708.0 312.9 53.2 887.1 20.6 389.9 20071 1735.0 319.1 53.5 899.8 20.8 397.4 20072 1762.1 325.3 54.0 912.4 21.0 405.2 20073 1789.3 331.3 54.7 924.9 21.1 413.0 20074 1816.8 337.4 55.5 937.4 21.3 421.0 20081 1844.7 343.4 56.4 949.9 21.4 429.2 20082 1872.9 349.5 57.3 962.6 21.6 437.6 20083 1901.6 355.7 58.4 975.5 21.7 446.1 20084 1930.9 361.9 59.5 988.6 21.9 454.7 20091 1960.7 368.3 60.6 1001.9 22.1 463.6 20092 1991.2 374.8 61.8 1015.5 22.2 472.6 20093 2022.3 381.5 63.0 1029.3 22.4 481.7 20094 2054.0 388.3 64.3 1043.5 22.6 491.1
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 7.4 20052 1545.8 1175.7 344.9 23.7 2.5 4.0 21.1 20053 1571.9 1204.1 328.2 24.1 2.5 18.0 -0.4 20054 1601.7 1226.9 335.0 24.3 2.5 18.0 -3.3 20061 1631.8 1250.1 341.7 24.5 2.5 18.0 -5.5 20062 1662.8 1273.7 349.0 24.6 2.5 18.0 -9.0 20063 1694.6 1297.3 356.9 24.8 2.5 18.0 -13.5 20064 1727.1 1320.9 365.7 25.0 2.5 18.0 -19.1 20071 1760.2 1344.5 375.1 25.2 2.5 18.0 -25.2 20072 1793.8 1367.9 385.0 25.4 2.5 18.0 -31.7 20073 1827.7 1391.2 395.4 25.6 2.5 18.0 -38.4 20074 1861.7 1414.5 406.0 25.8 2.5 18.0 -44.9 20081 1896.0 1437.7 416.9 25.9 2.5 18.0 -51.4 20082 1930.6 1460.9 428.0 26.1 2.5 18.0 -57.7 20083 1965.3 1484.2 439.3 26.3 2.5 18.0 -63.7 20084 2000.4 1507.6 450.8 26.5 2.5 18.0 -69.5 20091 2035.7 1531.2 462.4 26.7 2.5 18.0 -75.0 20092 2071.5 1554.9 474.1 26.9 2.5 18.0 -80.3 20093 2107.6 1579.0 486.0 27.1 2.5 18.0 -85.4 20094 2144.2 1603.3 498.1 27.3 2.5 18.0 -90.2
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20011 -152.2 -365.4 36.3 410.9 159.1 -88.7 20012 -203.9 -241.5 56.8 376.3 121.8 -109.5 20013 -47.0 -158.3 56.6 352.5 -83.6 -120.2 20014 -252.3 6.7 72.7 341.9 -5.9 -163.2 20021 -78.3 -65.2 102.7 421.0 -209.7 -170.4 20022 -101.1 -18.9 72.1 459.5 -244.8 -166.9 20023 -173.3 33.7 89.1 463.5 -249.0 -163.9 20024 -209.8 82.4 95.9 489.3 -288.5 -169.3 20031 -200.9 30.8 137.7 529.1 -295.7 -201.0 20032 -197.0 99.7 130.5 503.0 -378.3 -157.8 20033 -194.0 171.6 133.6 499.0 -458.5 -151.7 20034 -243.9 180.7 113.8 486.5 -415.9 -121.2 20041 -250.2 143.2 118.2 566.0 -439.5 -137.8 20042 -320.3 102.0 130.2 649.1 -422.5 -138.5 20043 -309.8 181.7 49.6 653.1 -419.7 -154.9 20044 -256.5 -45.6 85.1 738.6 -388.0 -133.5 20051 -432.8 -26.4 137.5 766.8 -310.4 -134.7 20052 -511.9 58.8 130.8 746.8 -296.1 -128.4 20053 -632.3 308.7 127.5 747.6 -399.9 -151.6 20054 -563.6 130.9 126.4 783.7 -321.3 -156.0 20061 -536.8 93.3 131.2 789.0 -316.9 -159.7 20062 -514.1 68.9 136.1 791.2 -317.3 -164.8 20063 -493.0 53.1 141.0 789.4 -319.8 -170.8 20064 -474.4 48.0 145.9 783.2 -324.8 -177.9 20071 -457.7 49.4 150.8 774.0 -330.9 -185.7 20072 -442.6 55.0 155.6 763.2 -337.5 -193.8 20073 -429.1 63.4 160.4 751.7 -344.5 -202.0 20074 -417.1 73.7 165.2 740.2 -351.7 -210.2 20081 -406.8 85.2 169.9 729.0 -359.1 -218.3 20082 -398.2 97.9 174.6 718.4 -366.4 -226.2 20083 -391.5 111.3 179.3 708.5 -373.7 -233.9 20084 -386.6 125.3 184.0 699.4 -380.7 -241.3 20091 -383.4 139.7 188.8 691.0 -387.5 -248.6 20092 -381.9 154.4 193.5 683.5 -394.0 -255.6 20093 -381.9 169.1 198.4 676.8 -400.0 -262.3 20094 -383.3 183.8 203.3 670.7 -405.6 -268.9 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10717.0 7555.2 919.7 2156.0 4479.5 20032 10844.6 7635.3 942.2 2153.1 4540.0 20033 11087.6 7782.4 974.7 2213.5 4594.2 20034 11236.2 7866.7 963.6 2233.6 4669.5 20041 11457.2 8032.3 974.2 2302.7 4755.4 20042 11666.1 8145.7 974.6 2355.2 4815.9 20043 11818.8 8263.2 993.8 2378.4 4891.0 20044 11995.1 8416.1 1008.6 2437.1 4970.4 20051 12198.7 8535.7 1017.3 2476.6 5041.8 20052 12380.3 8677.0 1035.5 2533.7 5107.8 20053 12589.6 8840.0 1054.1 2599.1 5186.8 20054 12893.7 8979.7 1073.8 2641.7 5264.2 20061 13128.3 9121.1 1093.3 2683.4 5344.4 20062 13345.8 9262.5 1112.3 2724.0 5426.2 20063 13559.5 9402.5 1130.6 2763.1 5508.7 20064 13766.0 9540.4 1148.1 2800.9 5591.5 20071 13972.4 9676.7 1164.9 2837.6 5674.2 20072 14179.7 9811.7 1181.5 2873.4 5756.9 20073 14388.5 9946.1 1197.8 2908.6 5839.7 20074 14599.2 10080.6 1214.2 2943.6 5922.7 20081 14811.9 10215.8 1230.9 2978.6 6006.3 20082 15026.8 10352.4 1248.1 3013.8 6090.6 20083 15244.5 10490.8 1265.7 3049.3 6175.7 20084 15465.0 10631.4 1284.0 3085.4 6262.0 20091 15689.0 10774.5 1303.0 3122.1 6349.5 20092 15916.7 10920.5 1322.7 3159.4 6438.4 20093 16148.5 11069.5 1343.2 3197.5 6528.7 20094 16384.6 11221.6 1364.5 3236.4 6620.7
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1610.0 1588.2 1048.2 540.0 21.8 20032 1619.3 1619.7 1066.8 552.9 -0.4 20033 1694.3 1683.7 1098.8 584.9 10.6 20034 1758.0 1728.2 1116.0 612.2 29.8 20041 1818.2 1772.7 1140.7 632.0 45.5 20042 1928.5 1856.6 1182.7 673.9 71.9 20043 1961.2 1908.7 1219.0 689.7 52.5 20044 2004.5 1952.6 1252.9 699.7 51.9 20051 2058.5 1998.6 1280.1 718.5 59.9 20052 2056.8 2058.5 1313.5 745.0 -1.7 20053 2078.6 2102.2 1340.7 761.5 -23.6 20054 2215.2 2164.7 1386.2 778.6 50.4 20061 2270.7 2210.0 1426.4 783.6 60.7 20062 2305.6 2246.8 1462.1 784.7 58.8 20063 2334.0 2280.1 1496.5 783.7 53.8 20064 2352.6 2305.9 1524.4 781.5 46.7 20071 2369.8 2328.0 1548.8 779.2 41.9 20072 2387.9 2349.0 1571.5 777.5 39.0 20073 2407.5 2369.7 1592.7 777.0 37.8 20074 2428.9 2390.9 1613.2 777.6 38.0 20081 2451.9 2412.9 1633.3 779.6 39.0 20082 2476.3 2435.9 1653.0 782.9 40.4 20083 2502.1 2460.1 1672.6 787.5 42.0 20084 2529.2 2485.6 1692.1 793.4 43.7 20091 2557.6 2512.3 1711.8 800.5 45.3 20092 2587.3 2540.3 1731.7 808.6 46.9 20093 2618.3 2569.8 1752.0 817.8 48.6 20094 2650.8 2600.7 1772.8 827.9 50.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -502.6 1018.8 1521.4 2054.4 724.0 1330.4 20032 -500.5 1016.1 1516.6 2090.5 763.4 1327.1 20033 -495.3 1046.6 1541.9 2106.2 761.8 1344.4 20034 -505.0 1101.1 1606.1 2116.5 770.0 1346.5 20041 -559.5 1130.8 1690.3 2166.2 808.3 1357.9 20042 -613.1 1163.3 1776.4 2205.0 824.6 1380.4 20043 -638.0 1183.8 1821.8 2232.4 836.5 1395.9 20044 -685.4 1217.1 1902.5 2259.9 840.8 1419.1 20051 -697.4 1253.2 1950.6 2301.9 860.2 1441.7 20052 -691.0 1297.1 1988.1 2337.5 869.8 1467.7 20053 -721.7 1311.1 2032.8 2392.7 892.8 1499.9 20054 -735.5 1351.2 2086.7 2434.4 908.0 1526.3 20061 -740.3 1392.4 2132.7 2476.7 923.5 1553.3 20062 -741.9 1434.8 2176.7 2519.6 939.1 1580.5 20063 -739.6 1478.0 2217.6 2562.7 954.8 1607.9 20064 -732.8 1522.0 2254.8 2605.8 970.4 1635.3 20071 -723.0 1566.6 2289.6 2648.8 986.0 1662.7 20072 -711.6 1611.9 2323.5 2691.7 1001.6 1690.1 20073 -699.5 1657.8 2357.4 2734.4 1017.1 1717.4 20074 -687.4 1704.4 2391.8 2777.1 1032.5 1744.6 20081 -675.6 1751.8 2427.4 2819.7 1047.9 1771.8 20082 -664.4 1799.9 2464.3 2862.5 1063.3 1799.2 20083 -653.8 1849.0 2502.8 2905.4 1078.8 1826.6 20084 -644.1 1899.0 2543.1 2948.5 1094.3 1854.2 20091 -635.1 1950.1 2585.2 2992.0 1109.9 1882.0 20092 -626.9 2002.3 2629.2 3035.8 1125.7 1910.1 20093 -619.5 2055.7 2675.2 3080.1 1141.6 1938.5 20094 -612.8 2110.4 2723.2 3125.0 1157.7 1967.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10138.6 7195.1 979.1 2069.5 4146.5 20032 10230.4 7262.8 1014.0 2079.1 4169.7 20033 10410.9 7372.3 1060.9 2121.2 4190.2 20034 10502.6 7426.7 1060.0 2137.3 4229.4 20041 10612.5 7512.5 1071.6 2171.9 4269.0 20042 10704.1 7547.2 1072.5 2186.1 4288.6 20043 10808.9 7631.4 1100.4 2206.9 4324.1 20044 10897.1 7713.7 1115.1 2236.5 4362.1 20051 10999.3 7779.9 1122.3 2265.6 4392.0 20052 11089.2 7847.4 1143.9 2285.9 4417.6 20053 11193.2 7926.6 1173.5 2300.6 4452.5 20054 11336.4 7972.0 1183.4 2314.9 4473.7 20061 11417.8 8017.8 1193.0 2328.1 4496.8 20062 11482.2 8062.9 1201.9 2340.1 4520.9 20063 11543.5 8107.0 1209.9 2351.2 4545.9 20064 11599.6 8150.3 1217.3 2361.3 4571.6 20071 11657.8 8193.4 1224.3 2371.0 4598.1 20072 11719.2 8236.8 1231.0 2380.5 4625.3 20073 11783.9 8281.2 1237.8 2389.9 4653.4 20074 11852.2 8326.7 1244.9 2399.6 4682.3 20081 11923.6 8373.9 1252.4 2409.5 4712.0 20082 11997.8 8422.9 1260.4 2419.9 4742.7 20083 12074.8 8473.8 1269.0 2430.7 4774.2 20084 12154.3 8526.8 1278.2 2442.0 4806.6 20091 12236.2 8581.7 1288.1 2453.8 4839.8 20092 12320.4 8638.6 1298.6 2466.2 4873.9 20093 12406.9 8697.4 1309.7 2478.9 4908.7 20094 12495.5 8758.0 1321.5 2492.2 4944.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1560.4 1536.4 1051.6 484.8 24.0 20032 1568.5 1568.9 1072.9 496.0 -0.4 20033 1632.2 1622.9 1101.7 521.2 9.3 20034 1678.4 1649.4 1113.7 535.7 29.0 20041 1719.3 1677.4 1135.0 542.4 41.9 20042 1802.3 1736.7 1171.6 565.1 65.6 20043 1824.0 1773.6 1204.8 568.8 50.4 20044 1856.2 1806.1 1235.1 571.0 50.1 20051 1894.5 1836.3 1252.2 584.1 58.2 20052 1876.5 1878.2 1278.9 599.3 -1.7 20053 1888.1 1904.7 1298.4 606.3 -16.6 20054 1990.2 1942.7 1329.0 613.7 47.5 20061 2022.1 1965.5 1354.0 611.5 56.6 20062 2035.0 1980.7 1374.3 606.4 54.3 20063 2042.2 1993.0 1393.2 599.8 49.3 20064 2041.1 1998.7 1406.1 592.6 42.3 20071 2039.2 2001.6 1416.0 585.6 37.6 20072 2038.5 2003.8 1424.4 579.4 34.7 20073 2039.5 2006.1 1431.8 574.3 33.4 20074 2042.3 2009.0 1438.8 570.2 33.3 20081 2046.7 2012.8 1445.6 567.3 33.9 20082 2052.5 2017.6 1452.2 565.5 34.9 20083 2059.4 2023.4 1458.7 564.7 36.0 20084 2067.3 2030.2 1465.3 564.9 37.2 20091 2076.2 2037.9 1472.0 565.9 38.3 20092 2086.1 2046.7 1478.9 567.8 39.4 20093 2096.9 2056.4 1486.1 570.3 40.5 20094 2108.6 2067.0 1493.6 573.4 41.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -510.7 1009.7 1520.4 1884.4 20032 -528.4 1004.5 1532.9 1917.4 20033 -516.2 1032.2 1548.4 1920.0 20034 -530.2 1078.4 1608.6 1922.5 20041 -563.0 1091.8 1654.8 1938.3 20042 -601.7 1110.2 1711.9 1949.3 20043 -606.5 1125.0 1731.5 1958.2 20044 -634.0 1144.5 1778.5 1962.5 20051 -645.4 1165.3 1810.7 1971.6 20052 -614.3 1195.3 1809.6 1983.8 20053 -611.8 1197.6 1809.4 1999.7 20054 -625.1 1220.9 1845.9 2008.7 20061 -630.4 1244.6 1875.0 2017.7 20062 -633.2 1268.8 1901.9 2026.8 20063 -632.3 1293.4 1925.7 2035.9 20064 -627.4 1318.5 1946.0 2045.1 20071 -619.7 1344.1 1963.9 2054.4 20072 -610.4 1370.3 1980.7 2063.7 20073 -600.3 1396.9 1997.2 2073.0 20074 -589.9 1424.0 2013.9 2082.4 20081 -579.6 1451.7 2031.3 2091.9 20082 -569.6 1479.9 2049.5 2101.4 20083 -560.1 1508.6 2068.7 2111.0 20084 -551.1 1537.9 2089.1 2120.7 20091 -542.8 1567.8 2110.6 2130.4 20092 -535.0 1598.3 2133.3 2140.1 20093 -527.9 1629.3 2157.3 2149.9 20094 -521.5 1661.0 2182.5 2159.8
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 94.8 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 96.1 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 96.1 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 97.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 100.3 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 99.9 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 100.3 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 101.7 823.4 20051 2160.9 908.3 291.7 102.5 841.1 20052 2205.2 930.8 300.8 106.2 850.3 20053 2142.2 948.0 294.4 105.1 857.3 20054 2266.7 986.9 278.3 106.8 877.6 20061 2318.0 1016.6 278.5 108.4 897.3 20062 2365.0 1044.7 277.5 110.1 915.5 20063 2410.6 1071.6 277.3 111.8 932.7 20064 2454.0 1097.2 277.5 113.4 948.7 20071 2497.1 1121.8 279.0 115.0 964.0 20072 2540.1 1146.0 281.6 116.7 978.7 20073 2583.3 1169.8 285.0 118.3 993.1 20074 2627.0 1193.5 289.2 119.8 1007.3 20081 2671.3 1217.4 293.8 121.5 1021.4 20082 2716.2 1241.5 298.9 123.1 1035.5 20083 2761.9 1265.9 304.3 124.7 1049.7 20084 2808.4 1290.7 310.0 126.4 1064.1 20091 2856.0 1316.1 315.9 128.1 1078.7 20092 2904.7 1342.1 322.0 129.8 1093.6 20093 2954.6 1368.7 328.4 131.6 1108.7 20094 3005.8 1396.1 335.0 133.4 1124.1
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 954.2 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 966.8 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 975.7 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 979.9 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 1015.4 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 1011.8 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1021.5 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1036.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1079.7 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -298.2 20052 2490.7 762.8 1079.7 1061.5 18.2 358.6 234.4 55.2 -285.5 20053 2530.1 783.1 1100.1 1077.3 22.8 354.1 235.1 57.7 -387.9 20054 2576.1 797.0 1121.0 1098.2 22.8 361.0 239.4 57.7 -309.4 20061 2623.1 811.1 1142.4 1119.6 22.8 368.0 244.0 57.7 -305.1 20062 2670.6 825.3 1164.1 1141.3 22.8 375.1 248.3 57.7 -305.6 20063 2718.7 839.6 1186.3 1163.5 22.8 382.4 252.7 57.7 -308.1 20064 2767.3 853.8 1208.9 1186.1 22.8 389.9 257.0 57.7 -313.3 20071 2816.5 868.0 1231.9 1209.1 22.8 397.4 261.4 57.7 -319.4 20072 2866.2 882.1 1255.4 1232.6 22.8 405.2 265.9 57.7 -326.2 20073 2916.6 896.1 1279.4 1256.6 22.8 413.0 270.4 57.7 -333.3 20074 2967.7 910.1 1303.8 1281.0 22.8 421.0 275.1 57.7 -340.7 20081 3019.4 924.0 1328.7 1305.9 22.8 429.2 279.8 57.7 -348.1 20082 3071.8 937.9 1354.0 1331.2 22.8 437.6 284.6 57.7 -355.6 20083 3124.8 951.8 1379.9 1357.1 22.8 446.1 289.4 57.7 -363.0 20084 3178.6 965.8 1406.3 1383.5 22.8 454.7 294.2 57.7 -370.2 20091 3233.2 979.8 1433.1 1410.3 22.8 463.6 299.0 57.7 -377.2 20092 3288.5 994.0 1460.5 1437.7 22.8 472.6 303.7 57.7 -383.8 20093 3344.6 1008.3 1488.5 1465.7 22.8 481.7 308.4 57.7 -390.0 20094 3401.6 1022.7 1516.9 1494.1 22.8 491.1 313.1 57.7 -395.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 700.8 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 712.2 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 725.2 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 738.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 751.3 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 762.0 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 769.3 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 783.7 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 796.5 19.9 356.1 20052 1566.9 281.8 57.7 810.0 19.8 358.6 20053 1571.5 274.7 56.5 822.0 19.9 354.1 20054 1598.4 284.7 53.4 835.0 20.0 361.0 20061 1626.3 292.3 53.4 848.1 20.2 368.0 20062 1653.8 299.5 53.2 861.3 20.3 375.1 20063 1681.1 306.3 53.2 874.3 20.5 382.4 20064 1708.0 312.9 53.2 887.1 20.6 389.9 20071 1735.0 319.1 53.5 899.8 20.8 397.4 20072 1762.1 325.3 54.0 912.4 21.0 405.2 20073 1789.3 331.3 54.7 924.9 21.1 413.0 20074 1816.8 337.4 55.5 937.4 21.3 421.0 20081 1844.7 343.4 56.4 949.9 21.4 429.2 20082 1872.9 349.5 57.3 962.6 21.6 437.6 20083 1901.6 355.7 58.4 975.5 21.7 446.1 20084 1930.9 361.9 59.5 988.6 21.9 454.7 20091 1960.7 368.3 60.6 1001.9 22.1 463.6 20092 1991.2 374.8 61.8 1015.5 22.2 472.6 20093 2022.3 381.5 63.0 1029.3 22.4 481.7 20094 2054.0 388.3 64.3 1043.5 22.6 491.1
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 0.0 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 0.0 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 0.0 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 0.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 0.0 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 0.0 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 0.0 7.4 20052 1545.8 1175.7 344.9 23.7 2.5 4.0 0.0 21.1 20053 1571.9 1204.1 328.2 24.1 2.5 18.0 0.0 -0.4 20054 1601.7 1226.9 335.0 24.3 2.5 18.0 0.0 -3.3 20061 1631.8 1250.1 341.7 24.5 2.5 18.0 0.0 -5.5 20062 1662.8 1273.7 349.0 24.6 2.5 18.0 0.0 -9.0 20063 1694.6 1297.3 356.9 24.8 2.5 18.0 0.0 -13.5 20064 1727.1 1320.9 365.7 25.0 2.5 18.0 0.0 -19.1 20071 1760.2 1344.5 375.1 25.2 2.5 18.0 0.0 -25.2 20072 1793.8 1367.9 385.0 25.4 2.5 18.0 0.0 -31.7 20073 1827.7 1391.2 395.4 25.6 2.5 18.0 0.0 -38.4 20074 1861.7 1414.5 406.0 25.8 2.5 18.0 0.0 -44.9 20081 1896.0 1437.7 416.9 25.9 2.5 18.0 0.0 -51.4 20082 1930.6 1460.9 428.0 26.1 2.5 18.0 0.0 -57.7 20083 1965.3 1484.2 439.3 26.3 2.5 18.0 0.0 -63.7 20084 2000.4 1507.6 450.8 26.5 2.5 18.0 0.0 -69.5 20091 2035.7 1531.2 462.4 26.7 2.5 18.0 0.0 -75.0 20092 2071.5 1554.9 474.1 26.9 2.5 18.0 0.0 -80.3 20093 2107.6 1579.0 486.0 27.1 2.5 18.0 0.0 -85.4 20094 2144.2 1603.3 498.1 27.3 2.5 18.0 0.0 -90.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.9 104.2 108.0 20032 106.0 105.1 92.9 103.6 108.9 20033 106.5 105.6 91.9 104.4 109.6 20034 107.0 105.9 90.9 104.5 110.4 20041 108.0 106.9 90.9 106.0 111.4 20042 109.0 107.9 90.9 107.7 112.3 20043 109.3 108.3 90.3 107.8 113.1 20044 110.1 109.1 90.4 109.0 113.9 20051 110.9 109.7 90.6 109.3 114.8 20052 111.6 110.6 90.5 110.8 115.6 20053 112.5 111.5 89.8 113.0 116.5 20054 113.7 112.6 90.7 114.1 117.7 20061 115.0 113.8 91.6 115.3 118.9 20062 116.2 114.9 92.5 116.4 120.0 20063 117.5 116.0 93.4 117.5 121.2 20064 118.7 117.1 94.3 118.6 122.3 20071 119.9 118.1 95.2 119.7 123.4 20072 121.0 119.1 96.0 120.7 124.5 20073 122.1 120.1 96.8 121.7 125.5 20074 123.2 121.1 97.5 122.7 126.5 20081 124.2 122.0 98.3 123.6 127.5 20082 125.2 122.9 99.0 124.5 128.4 20083 126.3 123.8 99.7 125.5 129.4 20084 127.2 124.7 100.5 126.3 130.3 20091 128.2 125.6 101.2 127.2 131.2 20092 129.2 126.4 101.9 128.1 132.1 20093 130.2 127.3 102.6 129.0 133.0 20094 131.1 128.1 103.3 129.9 133.9
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.0 20032 103.2 99.4 111.5 101.2 98.9 109.0 20033 103.8 99.7 112.2 101.4 99.6 109.7 20034 104.8 100.2 114.3 102.1 99.8 110.1 20041 105.7 100.5 116.5 103.6 102.1 111.8 20042 106.9 100.9 119.3 104.8 103.8 113.1 20043 107.6 101.2 121.3 105.2 105.2 114.0 20044 108.1 101.4 122.5 106.3 107.0 115.2 20051 108.8 102.2 123.0 107.5 107.7 116.8 20052 109.6 102.7 124.3 108.5 109.9 117.8 20053 110.4 103.3 125.6 109.5 112.3 119.7 20054 111.4 104.3 126.9 110.7 113.0 121.2 20061 112.5 105.3 128.1 111.9 113.7 122.7 20062 113.4 106.4 129.4 113.1 114.4 124.3 20063 114.4 107.4 130.7 114.3 115.2 125.9 20064 115.4 108.4 131.9 115.4 115.9 127.4 20071 116.3 109.4 133.0 116.5 116.6 128.9 20072 117.2 110.3 134.2 117.6 117.3 130.4 20073 118.1 111.2 135.3 118.7 118.0 131.9 20074 119.0 112.1 136.4 119.7 118.8 133.4 20081 119.9 113.0 137.4 120.7 119.5 134.8 20082 120.7 113.8 138.5 121.6 120.2 136.2 20083 121.6 114.7 139.5 122.6 121.0 137.6 20084 122.4 115.5 140.5 123.5 121.7 139.0 20091 123.3 116.3 141.4 124.4 122.5 140.4 20092 124.1 117.1 142.4 125.3 123.2 141.9 20093 125.0 117.9 143.4 126.2 124.0 143.3 20094 125.8 118.7 144.4 127.1 124.8 144.7
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment