US Forecast: April 28, 2006
Forecast Period

2006:2--2009:4 (15 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 28, 2006.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2006:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in The US Model Appendix A: April 28, 2006, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). Beginning with the previous forecast (dated October 31, 2005), a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Finally, beginning with the current version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2006:1.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2006:1-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.7       
COG           3.0                  4.3       
JG            1.0                 -1.0       
TRGS          8.0                  6.2       
TRSH         10.0                  6.2       
COS           3.0                  4.2       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  5.4
PIM           2.5                  0.8

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 3.6, 2.9, 2.7, and 2.5 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate at the end of 2006 is 4.5 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 2.5, 2.4, 2.3, and 2.0 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 4.4, 4.3, 4.2, and 4.1 percent, respectively. These predicted values are higher than the actual values in the past few years and probably higher than most others are predicting. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 5.0 percent by the second quarter of 2007.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $265 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) By the end of 2009 it is predicted to be $357.0 billion.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $890 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards to say the least.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or a depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period. (If you increase PIM, inflation will be even higher than is currently forecast.)

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1310. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1110, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: April 28, 2006
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10138.6 1.7 4146.5 1.9 2069.5 3.2 979.1 3.6 20032 10230.4 3.7 4169.7 2.3 2079.1 1.9 1014.0 15.0 20033 10410.9 7.2 4190.2 2.0 2121.2 8.3 1060.9 19.8 20034 10502.6 3.6 4229.4 3.8 2137.3 3.1 1060.0 -0.3 20041 10612.5 4.3 4269.0 3.8 2171.9 6.6 1071.6 4.4 20042 10704.1 3.5 4288.6 1.8 2186.1 2.6 1072.5 0.3 20043 10808.9 4.0 4324.1 3.4 2206.9 3.9 1100.4 10.8 20044 10897.1 3.3 4362.1 3.6 2236.5 5.5 1115.1 5.5 20051 10999.3 3.8 4392.0 2.8 2265.6 5.3 1122.3 2.6 20052 11089.2 3.3 4417.6 2.4 2285.9 3.6 1143.9 7.9 20053 11202.3 4.1 4453.5 3.3 2305.7 3.5 1169.7 9.3 20054 11248.3 1.7 4482.6 2.6 2334.2 5.0 1117.7 -16.6 20061 11381.4 4.8 4514.0 2.8 2365.3 5.4 1171.2 20.6 20062 11482.5 3.6 4538.8 2.2 2382.9 3.0 1187.0 5.5 20063 11565.3 2.9 4565.6 2.4 2396.9 2.4 1200.8 4.7 20064 11643.3 2.7 4593.7 2.5 2409.5 2.1 1213.1 4.2 20071 11714.4 2.5 4622.4 2.5 2421.3 2.0 1224.1 3.7 20072 11783.6 2.4 4651.7 2.6 2432.4 1.9 1234.0 3.3 20073 11853.5 2.4 4681.8 2.6 2443.2 1.8 1243.3 3.0 20074 11924.9 2.4 4712.6 2.7 2453.9 1.8 1252.3 2.9 20081 11998.5 2.5 4744.1 2.7 2464.7 1.8 1261.3 2.9 20082 12074.3 2.6 4776.3 2.7 2475.6 1.8 1270.5 2.9 20083 12152.4 2.6 4809.2 2.8 2486.9 1.8 1280.0 3.0 20084 12232.7 2.7 4842.9 2.8 2498.6 1.9 1290.0 3.1 20091 12315.1 2.7 4877.4 2.9 2510.7 2.0 1300.4 3.3 20092 12399.7 2.8 4912.5 2.9 2523.2 2.0 1311.4 3.4 20093 12486.2 2.8 4948.4 3.0 2536.2 2.1 1322.9 3.6 20094 12574.7 2.9 4985.0 3.0 2549.6 2.1 1334.9 3.7
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20011 378.5 12.9 1042.9 -10.9 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 385.9 8.1 1012.9 -11.0 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 382.7 -3.3 995.1 -6.8 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 375.5 -7.3 945.3 -18.6 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 386.8 12.6 908.4 -14.7 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 860.9 -19.3 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 875.3 6.9 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 866.0 -4.2 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 415.4 6.1 882.6 7.9 24.0 1520.4 -2.5 20032 425.8 10.4 890.7 3.8 -0.4 1532.9 3.3 20033 452.5 27.6 903.1 5.7 9.3 1548.4 4.1 20034 460.6 7.3 896.0 -3.1 29.0 1608.6 16.5 20041 453.0 -6.4 921.1 11.7 41.9 1654.8 12.0 20042 486.3 32.8 969.9 22.9 65.6 1711.9 14.5 20043 484.3 -1.7 971.6 0.7 50.4 1731.5 4.7 20044 485.6 1.1 994.0 9.5 50.1 1778.5 11.3 20051 499.2 11.7 1013.1 7.9 58.2 1810.7 7.4 20052 518.8 16.6 1037.8 10.1 -1.7 1809.6 -0.2 20053 519.8 0.8 1064.2 10.6 -13.3 1820.2 2.4 20054 523.1 2.5 1074.8 4.0 37.9 1872.8 12.1 20061 526.5 2.6 1111.4 14.3 21.9 1931.0 13.0 20062 525.4 -0.8 1137.9 9.9 42.6 1970.1 8.3 20063 521.0 -3.3 1149.3 4.1 52.5 1995.4 5.2 20064 514.8 -4.7 1166.8 6.2 52.9 2019.2 4.9 20071 508.3 -5.0 1179.8 4.5 49.8 2040.5 4.3 20072 501.6 -5.2 1189.0 3.2 47.0 2059.5 3.8 20073 495.3 -4.9 1197.5 2.9 44.1 2077.8 3.6 20074 489.8 -4.3 1204.4 2.3 42.3 2095.8 3.5 20081 485.4 -3.6 1210.5 2.0 41.3 2114.1 3.5 20082 482.0 -2.8 1216.0 1.8 41.1 2133.0 3.6 20083 479.5 -2.0 1221.2 1.7 41.2 2152.8 3.8 20084 478.0 -1.3 1226.2 1.6 41.7 2173.5 3.9 20091 477.4 -0.5 1231.1 1.6 42.3 2195.4 4.1 20092 477.6 0.2 1236.0 1.6 43.1 2218.6 4.3 20093 478.5 0.8 1241.0 1.6 43.8 2242.9 4.5 20094 480.1 1.3 1246.1 1.7 44.6 2268.4 4.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20011 3.3 3.2 8.1 4.8 20012 3.3 3.4 3.1 -0.3 20013 1.5 1.1 2.3 1.2 20014 2.0 1.2 3.4 2.1 20021 1.5 0.6 4.7 4.1 20022 1.4 2.1 2.1 0.0 20023 1.5 0.9 1.8 0.9 20024 2.2 1.9 0.3 -1.6 20031 3.1 2.4 5.1 2.6 20032 1.1 0.5 9.5 8.9 20033 1.9 1.2 3.6 2.4 20034 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.2 20041 3.7 2.8 5.0 2.2 20042 3.9 3.7 5.5 1.7 20043 1.3 2.2 3.7 1.4 20044 2.7 2.8 11.2 8.2 20051 3.0 3.1 4.5 1.4 20052 2.7 2.6 2.4 -0.2 20053 3.3 3.8 4.9 1.0 20054 3.4 3.9 4.9 0.9 20061 3.2 2.7 4.8 2.0 20062 4.4 4.4 6.1 1.7 20063 4.3 4.3 6.1 1.7 20064 4.2 4.2 6.1 1.8 20071 4.1 4.1 6.0 1.8 20072 4.0 4.0 5.9 1.8 20073 3.9 3.9 5.8 1.9 20074 3.8 3.7 5.7 1.9 20081 3.7 3.6 5.6 2.0 20082 3.6 3.5 5.5 2.0 20083 3.5 3.4 5.5 2.0 20084 3.4 3.3 5.4 2.0 20091 3.3 3.2 5.4 2.1 20092 3.3 3.2 5.3 2.1 20093 3.2 3.1 5.3 2.1 20094 3.2 3.1 5.3 2.1
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1191.6 -0.2 63.9 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1207.5 5.5 64.8 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1241.5 11.7 69.9 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1302.2 21.0 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1266.9 -10.4 66.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1274.9 2.5 66.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1292.6 5.7 68.2 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1311.9 6.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1336.7 7.8 74.0 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1369.6 10.2 73.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1359.3 -3.0 75.6 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1393.3 10.4 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1419.9 7.9 74.1 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1434.7 4.2 79.1 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1449.9 4.3 72.1 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1486.1 10.4 65.6 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1487.9 0.5 74.7 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1490.1 0.6 73.7 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1466.7 -6.1 66.9 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1482.8 4.5 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1499.2 4.5 69.8 20062 4.6 5.5 6.5 1505.4 1.7 68.0 20063 4.7 5.6 6.7 1514.7 2.5 67.0 20064 4.8 5.8 6.9 1526.1 3.1 66.4 20071 4.9 6.0 7.0 1539.2 3.5 65.9 20072 5.0 6.1 7.2 1553.7 3.8 65.7 20073 5.0 6.2 7.3 1569.6 4.1 65.7 20074 5.0 6.3 7.4 1586.6 4.4 65.8 20081 5.0 6.4 7.5 1604.7 4.6 66.0 20082 5.0 6.5 7.6 1623.6 4.8 66.3 20083 5.0 6.5 7.6 1643.3 4.9 66.7 20084 4.9 6.6 7.7 1663.7 5.1 67.1 20091 4.9 6.6 7.7 1684.7 5.2 67.6 20092 4.8 6.7 7.7 1706.3 5.2 68.1 20093 4.8 6.7 7.7 1728.4 5.3 68.7 20094 4.8 6.7 7.7 1751.0 5.3 69.3
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20011 4.2 1.6 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.1 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.6 -0.3 -2.5 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 -0.1 -0.4 3.0 -1.9 -1.0 6.9 20014 5.5 0.6 0.3 4.3 -2.4 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.4 0.1 0.6 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.5 4.8 -0.1 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.4 -0.5 1.4 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.3 0.9 0.9 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.7 1.3 1.7 -0.7 0.6 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.5 2.7 -1.3 0.6 9.0 20033 6.1 0.4 -1.3 -0.5 1.2 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 1.1 -0.7 2.4 1.2 2.1 8.5 20041 5.7 -1.1 -0.5 5.1 1.2 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 8.2 20043 5.5 0.9 0.5 3.0 2.0 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 0.2 -0.1 4.0 1.4 1.5 8.0 20051 5.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 2.2 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 0.9 0.8 6.3 1.7 3.2 7.6 20053 5.0 1.5 1.9 2.6 0.3 2.3 7.5 20054 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.8 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.2 7.1 20062 4.6 0.4 0.8 2.4 2.5 1.5 7.0 20063 4.6 0.5 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.5 6.9 20064 4.5 0.5 0.9 2.5 2.3 1.4 6.9 20071 4.5 0.5 0.9 2.5 2.0 1.2 6.9 20072 4.6 0.5 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.1 7.0 20073 4.7 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.5 1.0 7.1 20074 4.7 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.3 0.9 7.3 20081 4.8 0.5 1.0 2.4 1.1 0.8 7.5 20082 4.9 0.5 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 7.6 20083 5.0 0.5 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 7.8 20084 5.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.8 8.0 20091 5.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 0.9 0.9 8.1 20092 5.3 0.4 1.1 2.2 0.9 0.9 8.2 20093 5.3 0.4 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 8.4 20094 5.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.9 8.5
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20011 -8005.2 523.9 -12.9 2.0 -2.5 410.9 156.6 32.6 20012 3089.3 534.9 8.7 1.2 5.3 376.3 123.7 25.8 20013 -9006.5 459.2 -45.7 3.6 1.8 352.5 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5641.6 407.1 -38.3 0.6 3.1 341.9 -4.9 -30.6 20021 2.8 415.7 8.8 3.0 4.0 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6735.2 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.9 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -8045.2 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.0 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3817.9 576.5 61.4 1.8 -0.9 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1293.6 578.3 1.2 2.0 2.8 529.1 -295.8 -67.9 20032 6300.7 584.0 4.0 2.2 5.5 503.0 -373.8 -26.2 20033 1760.4 629.1 34.6 2.6 7.2 499.0 -456.1 -13.9 20034 7293.9 705.7 58.3 2.0 1.5 486.5 -404.8 12.4 20041 1221.6 706.2 0.3 1.9 2.9 566.0 -429.4 -6.5 20042 971.5 748.8 26.4 1.7 5.1 649.1 -413.5 -1.6 20043 -609.8 775.4 14.9 1.3 5.0 653.1 -411.6 -19.3 20044 6533.7 804.8 16.1 2.4 -0.3 738.6 -371.7 3.9 20051 -711.0 1001.2 139.5 0.5 2.1 766.8 -298.2 7.4 20052 1487.5 1064.8 27.9 -0.2 2.9 746.8 -297.2 21.1 20053 2841.3 1117.6 21.3 -1.7 8.6 741.2 -407.9 -6.3 20054 2450.6 1187.3 27.4 -0.2 -3.1 874.4 -288.4 -10.3 20061 1880.0 1271.0 31.3 -0.6 4.1 874.7 -265.7 17.0 20062 968.0 1268.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.1 891.5 -261.6 17.4 20063 1073.1 1277.8 2.9 0.1 0.7 892.1 -262.4 15.4 20064 1041.6 1287.3 3.0 0.3 0.7 890.6 -264.9 12.6 20071 1046.6 1296.3 2.8 0.4 0.8 885.4 -269.9 9.0 20072 1137.6 1308.4 3.8 0.5 1.0 877.2 -276.4 4.7 20073 1239.3 1324.6 5.0 0.7 1.3 867.7 -283.7 0.0 20074 1322.6 1344.6 6.2 0.7 1.5 857.5 -291.6 -4.9 20081 1398.7 1368.1 7.2 0.8 1.7 847.2 -299.8 -9.8 20082 1473.5 1394.6 8.0 0.9 1.8 837.0 -308.2 -14.7 20083 1545.8 1423.5 8.6 1.0 2.0 827.4 -316.7 -19.4 20084 1612.2 1454.6 9.0 1.0 2.0 818.4 -325.1 -24.0 20091 1673.5 1487.6 9.4 1.1 2.1 810.1 -333.5 -28.3 20092 1731.8 1522.3 9.7 1.2 2.2 802.6 -341.6 -32.4 20093 1787.9 1558.7 9.9 1.2 2.2 795.9 -349.5 -36.3 20094 1841.8 1596.5 10.1 1.2 2.2 789.9 -357.0 -40.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.2 -3.8 -2.9 933.3 6.4 11.3 20032 43.1 -1.8 -2.0 948.7 6.8 -4.4 20033 -3.9 4.8 11.5 957.1 3.6 2.6 20034 6.1 -4.2 19.1 965.7 3.6 1.1 20041 19.2 -2.8 5.1 988.1 9.6 9.5 20042 6.5 3.4 6.9 994.9 2.8 6.5 20043 5.4 0.0 5.4 1004.3 3.8 5.7 20044 -3.2 1.9 7.1 1018.8 5.9 6.8 20051 4.2 3.1 7.5 1047.9 11.9 2.8 20052 5.4 5.8 10.7 1061.5 5.3 8.2 20053 14.5 -2.8 2.5 1077.9 6.3 9.4 20054 -5.7 -1.0 5.0 1091.6 5.2 4.4 20061 23.8 -1.0 12.1 1162.3 28.5 -0.5 20062 3.0 3.0 8.0 1184.9 8.0 2.5 20063 3.0 3.0 8.0 1207.9 8.0 2.5 20064 3.0 3.0 8.0 1231.4 8.0 2.5 20071 3.0 3.0 8.0 1255.3 8.0 2.5 20072 3.0 3.0 8.0 1279.7 8.0 2.5 20073 3.0 3.0 8.0 1304.5 8.0 2.5 20074 3.0 3.0 8.0 1329.9 8.0 2.5 20081 3.0 3.0 8.0 1355.7 8.0 2.5 20082 3.0 3.0 8.0 1382.0 8.0 2.5 20083 3.0 3.0 8.0 1408.9 8.0 2.5 20084 3.0 3.0 8.0 1436.3 8.0 2.5 20091 3.0 3.0 8.0 1464.2 8.0 2.5 20092 3.0 3.0 8.0 1492.6 8.0 2.5 20093 3.0 3.0 8.0 1521.6 8.0 2.5 20094 3.0 3.0 8.0 1551.2 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 94.8 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 96.1 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 96.1 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 97.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 100.3 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 99.9 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 100.3 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 101.7 823.4 20051 2160.9 908.3 291.7 102.5 841.1 20052 2193.5 924.3 300.8 106.2 845.1 20053 2121.1 945.0 290.7 104.6 855.4 20054 2286.0 962.3 338.0 104.5 863.5 20061 2352.3 986.1 354.6 105.5 887.1 20062 2407.7 1021.3 354.1 107.3 906.0 20063 2458.7 1050.0 355.9 109.0 924.6 20064 2508.6 1078.3 357.8 110.8 942.7 20071 2556.9 1105.9 359.6 112.5 960.0 20072 2604.5 1132.8 362.0 114.2 976.6 20073 2652.1 1159.3 365.2 115.9 992.7 20074 2699.8 1185.5 369.2 117.5 1008.5 20081 2747.9 1211.8 373.8 119.2 1024.1 20082 2796.7 1238.1 379.1 120.9 1039.6 20083 2846.2 1264.7 384.8 122.6 1055.0 20084 2896.5 1291.6 391.0 124.4 1070.6 20091 2947.8 1319.0 397.5 126.1 1086.2 20092 3000.2 1346.9 404.4 127.9 1102.0 20093 3053.7 1375.3 411.6 129.7 1118.1 20094 3108.5 1404.5 419.1 131.5 1134.4
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -298.2 20052 2490.7 762.8 1061.5 18.2 358.6 234.4 55.2 -297.2 20053 2529.0 782.9 1077.9 19.2 354.1 235.0 59.9 -407.9 20054 2574.4 773.1 1091.6 29.9 361.7 252.6 65.5 -288.4 20061 2618.0 806.4 1162.3 11.6 349.1 230.4 58.2 -265.7 20062 2669.3 820.6 1184.9 11.6 355.9 238.1 58.2 -261.6 20063 2721.1 834.8 1207.9 11.6 362.8 245.8 58.2 -262.4 20064 2773.6 849.2 1231.4 11.6 369.8 253.4 58.2 -264.9 20071 2826.9 863.6 1255.3 11.6 377.0 261.2 58.2 -269.9 20072 2880.9 878.0 1279.7 11.6 384.4 269.1 58.2 -276.4 20073 2935.7 892.4 1304.5 11.6 391.8 277.2 58.2 -283.7 20074 2991.3 906.8 1329.9 11.6 399.4 285.4 58.2 -291.6 20081 3047.7 921.2 1355.7 11.6 407.2 293.8 58.2 -299.8 20082 3104.8 935.5 1382.0 11.6 415.1 302.3 58.2 -308.2 20083 3162.8 949.9 1408.9 11.6 423.2 311.0 58.2 -316.7 20084 3221.6 964.4 1436.3 11.6 431.4 319.8 58.2 -325.1 20091 3281.3 978.9 1464.2 11.6 439.8 328.6 58.2 -333.5 20092 3341.8 993.5 1492.6 11.6 448.3 337.5 58.2 -341.6 20093 3403.2 1008.3 1521.6 11.6 457.0 346.5 58.2 -349.5 20094 3465.5 1023.1 1551.2 11.6 465.9 355.5 58.2 -357.0
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 700.8 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 712.2 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 725.2 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 738.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 751.3 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 762.0 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 769.3 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 783.7 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 796.5 19.9 356.1 20052 1566.9 281.8 57.7 810.0 19.8 358.6 20053 1569.6 275.4 55.5 820.4 19.9 354.1 20054 1591.1 278.7 64.6 830.0 20.1 361.7 20061 1618.2 293.4 67.8 846.4 20.4 349.1 20062 1648.7 302.8 67.7 860.7 20.6 355.9 20063 1677.9 310.5 68.0 874.8 20.7 362.8 20064 1706.9 318.0 68.4 888.7 20.9 369.8 20071 1735.6 325.3 68.7 902.4 21.0 377.0 20072 1764.3 332.4 69.2 916.0 21.2 384.4 20073 1793.1 339.5 69.8 929.5 21.3 391.8 20074 1822.0 346.4 70.6 943.0 21.5 399.4 20081 1851.3 353.3 71.4 956.5 21.6 407.2 20082 1880.9 360.3 72.5 970.1 21.8 415.1 20083 1910.9 367.3 73.5 983.8 22.0 423.2 20084 1941.3 374.4 74.7 997.6 22.1 431.4 20091 1972.4 381.5 76.0 1011.7 22.3 439.8 20092 2004.0 388.8 77.3 1026.0 22.5 448.3 20093 2036.2 396.3 78.7 1040.5 22.6 457.0 20094 2069.1 403.9 80.1 1055.3 22.8 465.9
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 7.4 20052 1545.8 1175.7 344.9 23.7 2.5 4.0 21.1 20053 1575.9 1205.7 329.8 23.9 2.5 19.0 -6.3 20054 1601.4 1231.7 342.5 24.2 2.5 5.5 -10.3 20061 1601.2 1246.9 326.5 24.2 2.6 6.2 17.0 20062 1631.3 1270.3 333.0 24.4 2.6 6.2 17.4 20063 1662.4 1293.9 340.4 24.6 2.6 6.2 15.4 20064 1694.2 1317.7 348.2 24.7 2.6 6.2 12.6 20071 1726.6 1341.6 356.5 24.9 2.6 6.2 9.0 20072 1759.6 1365.6 365.3 25.1 2.6 6.2 4.7 20073 1793.1 1389.6 374.6 25.3 2.6 6.2 0.0 20074 1826.9 1413.6 384.3 25.5 2.6 6.2 -4.9 20081 1861.1 1437.5 394.2 25.7 2.6 6.2 -9.8 20082 1895.5 1461.6 404.5 25.9 2.6 6.2 -14.7 20083 1930.3 1485.7 414.9 26.1 2.6 6.2 -19.4 20084 1965.3 1509.9 425.6 26.2 2.6 6.2 -24.0 20091 2000.7 1534.2 436.4 26.4 2.6 6.2 -28.3 20092 2036.4 1558.7 447.4 26.6 2.6 6.2 -32.4 20093 2072.5 1583.5 458.6 26.8 2.6 6.2 -36.3 20094 2109.1 1608.5 469.9 27.0 2.6 6.2 -40.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20011 -152.2 -365.4 36.3 410.9 159.1 -88.7 20012 -203.9 -241.4 56.7 376.3 121.8 -109.5 20013 -47.0 -158.4 56.6 352.5 -83.6 -120.2 20014 -252.3 8.1 71.3 341.9 -5.8 -163.2 20021 -78.3 -64.3 101.8 421.0 -209.7 -170.4 20022 -101.1 -17.9 71.1 459.5 -244.8 -166.9 20023 -173.3 34.5 88.3 463.5 -249.0 -163.9 20024 -209.8 83.0 95.4 489.3 -288.5 -169.3 20031 -200.4 32.0 136.0 529.1 -295.7 -201.0 20032 -197.1 100.7 129.5 503.0 -378.3 -157.8 20033 -194.0 172.8 132.5 499.0 -458.5 -151.7 20034 -244.4 181.7 113.2 486.5 -415.9 -121.2 20041 -250.2 146.8 114.6 566.0 -439.5 -137.8 20042 -320.3 107.1 125.0 649.1 -422.5 -138.5 20043 -309.8 186.4 44.9 653.1 -419.7 -154.9 20044 -256.5 -41.0 80.5 738.6 -388.0 -133.5 20051 -432.8 -19.3 130.4 766.8 -310.4 -134.7 20052 -540.6 119.8 110.2 746.8 -307.8 -128.3 20053 -487.4 240.6 61.9 741.2 -416.3 -140.0 20054 -545.1 46.5 94.8 874.4 -311.5 -159.1 20061 -591.7 49.9 88.9 874.7 -290.3 -131.6 20062 -549.8 -13.8 90.7 891.5 -286.2 -132.5 20063 -531.5 -30.2 92.5 892.1 -287.0 -136.0 20064 -512.2 -42.8 94.3 890.6 -289.5 -140.3 20071 -494.2 -47.3 96.0 885.4 -294.5 -145.5 20072 -476.9 -45.7 97.6 877.2 -300.9 -151.3 20073 -460.9 -40.3 99.1 867.7 -308.2 -157.5 20074 -446.4 -31.7 100.5 857.5 -316.1 -163.9 20081 -433.6 -20.8 101.8 847.2 -324.2 -170.3 20082 -422.4 -8.3 103.0 837.0 -332.6 -176.7 20083 -412.9 5.5 104.1 827.4 -341.0 -183.0 20084 -405.1 20.2 105.1 818.4 -349.4 -189.2 20091 -399.1 35.7 106.1 810.1 -357.7 -195.1 20092 -394.8 51.8 107.0 802.6 -365.8 -200.9 20093 -392.1 68.4 107.9 795.9 -373.6 -206.4 20094 -391.0 85.2 108.7 789.9 -381.0 -211.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10717.0 7555.2 919.7 2156.0 4479.5 20032 10844.6 7635.3 942.2 2153.1 4540.0 20033 11087.6 7782.4 974.7 2213.5 4594.2 20034 11236.2 7866.7 963.6 2233.6 4669.5 20041 11457.2 8032.3 974.2 2302.7 4755.4 20042 11666.1 8145.7 974.6 2355.2 4815.9 20043 11818.8 8263.2 993.8 2378.4 4891.0 20044 11995.1 8416.1 1008.6 2437.1 4970.4 20051 12198.7 8535.7 1017.3 2476.6 5041.8 20052 12380.0 8677.0 1035.5 2533.7 5107.8 20053 12609.4 8844.1 1050.9 2604.9 5188.3 20054 12766.2 8926.2 1002.1 2642.5 5281.6 20061 13020.9 9091.2 1048.0 2684.8 5358.4 20062 13277.2 9245.3 1072.6 2731.5 5441.2 20063 13513.4 9395.9 1095.6 2774.1 5526.2 20064 13745.2 9545.3 1117.3 2815.1 5612.8 20071 13969.7 9693.0 1137.9 2855.0 5700.1 20072 14191.4 9839.1 1157.4 2893.9 5787.8 20073 14412.9 9984.3 1176.2 2932.1 5876.0 20074 14634.9 10129.2 1194.8 2969.8 5964.6 20081 14858.4 10274.2 1213.2 3007.3 6053.7 20082 15083.8 10420.0 1231.8 3044.8 6143.4 20083 15311.3 10567.0 1250.7 3082.4 6233.9 20084 15541.5 10715.8 1270.0 3120.5 6325.3 20091 15774.6 10866.7 1289.9 3159.0 6417.8 20092 16011.1 11020.0 1310.3 3198.1 6511.6 20093 16251.1 11176.0 1331.4 3237.9 6606.7 20094 16495.2 11334.8 1353.1 3278.4 6703.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1610.0 1588.2 1048.2 540.0 21.8 20032 1619.3 1619.7 1066.8 552.9 -0.4 20033 1694.3 1683.7 1098.8 584.9 10.6 20034 1758.0 1728.2 1116.0 612.2 29.8 20041 1818.2 1772.7 1140.7 632.0 45.5 20042 1928.5 1856.6 1182.7 673.9 71.9 20043 1961.2 1908.7 1219.0 689.7 52.5 20044 2004.5 1952.6 1252.9 699.7 51.9 20051 2058.5 1998.6 1280.1 718.5 59.9 20052 2056.5 2058.5 1313.5 745.0 -2.0 20053 2103.2 2119.2 1348.9 770.3 -16.0 20054 2207.5 2168.1 1376.7 791.4 39.4 20061 2260.3 2239.1 1434.7 804.4 21.2 20062 2335.9 2290.8 1479.0 811.8 45.0 20063 2378.3 2322.3 1507.6 814.7 56.0 20064 2414.9 2357.8 1542.9 815.0 57.0 20071 2442.1 2388.0 1573.4 814.6 54.1 20072 2465.1 2413.5 1599.7 813.7 51.6 20073 2487.2 2438.3 1625.2 813.1 48.9 20074 2509.4 2462.2 1648.9 813.3 47.2 20081 2532.8 2486.2 1671.5 814.7 46.5 20082 2557.3 2510.7 1693.4 817.3 46.6 20083 2583.1 2536.0 1714.8 821.2 47.2 20084 2610.2 2562.2 1735.9 826.3 48.1 20091 2638.6 2589.5 1756.9 832.6 49.1 20092 2668.3 2617.9 1777.9 840.0 50.3 20093 2699.3 2647.6 1799.1 848.5 51.6 20094 2731.5 2678.6 1820.6 858.0 52.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -502.6 1018.8 1521.4 2054.4 724.0 1330.4 20032 -500.5 1016.1 1516.6 2090.5 763.4 1327.1 20033 -495.3 1046.6 1541.9 2106.2 761.8 1344.4 20034 -505.0 1101.1 1606.1 2116.5 770.0 1346.5 20041 -559.5 1130.8 1690.3 2166.2 808.3 1357.9 20042 -613.1 1163.3 1776.4 2205.0 824.6 1380.4 20043 -638.0 1183.8 1821.8 2232.4 836.5 1395.9 20044 -685.4 1217.1 1902.5 2259.9 840.8 1419.1 20051 -697.4 1253.2 1950.6 2301.9 860.2 1441.7 20052 -691.0 1297.1 1988.1 2337.5 869.8 1467.7 20053 -730.5 1314.6 2045.1 2392.6 892.2 1500.4 20054 -787.1 1339.8 2126.9 2419.6 888.5 1531.1 20061 -803.4 1387.1 2190.5 2472.8 924.6 1548.2 20062 -819.5 1429.2 2248.7 2515.5 940.2 1575.3 20063 -819.4 1472.3 2291.6 2558.6 955.9 1602.6 20064 -817.0 1516.4 2333.4 2602.0 971.8 1630.2 20071 -811.2 1561.4 2372.6 2645.7 987.7 1658.0 20072 -802.2 1607.3 2409.5 2689.5 1003.6 1685.8 20073 -791.9 1654.0 2445.9 2733.3 1019.6 1713.8 20074 -780.9 1701.5 2482.4 2777.2 1035.5 1741.7 20081 -769.8 1749.9 2519.6 2821.2 1051.5 1769.7 20082 -758.8 1799.1 2557.9 2865.3 1067.5 1797.8 20083 -748.3 1849.2 2597.6 2909.5 1083.5 1826.0 20084 -738.5 1900.4 2638.9 2954.0 1099.6 1854.4 20091 -729.4 1952.6 2682.0 2998.7 1115.7 1883.0 20092 -721.0 2005.9 2727.0 3043.8 1132.0 1911.8 20093 -713.5 2060.5 2774.0 3089.4 1148.5 1940.9 20094 -706.6 2116.4 2822.9 3135.4 1165.1 1970.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10138.6 7195.1 979.1 2069.5 4146.5 20032 10230.4 7262.8 1014.0 2079.1 4169.7 20033 10410.9 7372.3 1060.9 2121.2 4190.2 20034 10502.6 7426.7 1060.0 2137.3 4229.4 20041 10612.5 7512.5 1071.6 2171.9 4269.0 20042 10704.1 7547.2 1072.5 2186.1 4288.6 20043 10808.9 7631.4 1100.4 2206.9 4324.1 20044 10897.1 7713.7 1115.1 2236.5 4362.1 20051 10999.3 7779.9 1122.3 2265.6 4392.0 20052 11089.2 7847.4 1143.9 2285.9 4417.6 20053 11202.3 7928.9 1169.7 2305.7 4453.5 20054 11248.3 7934.5 1117.7 2334.2 4482.6 20061 11381.4 8050.5 1171.2 2365.3 4514.0 20062 11482.5 8108.6 1187.0 2382.9 4538.8 20063 11565.3 8163.3 1200.8 2396.9 4565.6 20064 11643.3 8216.4 1213.1 2409.5 4593.7 20071 11714.4 8267.8 1224.1 2421.3 4622.4 20072 11783.6 8318.1 1234.0 2432.4 4651.7 20073 11853.5 8368.3 1243.3 2443.2 4681.8 20074 11924.9 8418.8 1252.3 2453.9 4712.6 20081 11998.5 8470.1 1261.3 2464.7 4744.1 20082 12074.3 8522.4 1270.5 2475.6 4776.3 20083 12152.4 8576.2 1280.0 2486.9 4809.2 20084 12232.7 8631.5 1290.0 2498.6 4842.9 20091 12315.1 8688.4 1300.4 2510.7 4877.4 20092 12399.7 8747.1 1311.4 2523.2 4912.5 20093 12486.2 8807.5 1322.9 2536.2 4948.4 20094 12574.7 8869.5 1334.9 2549.6 4985.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1560.4 1536.4 1051.6 484.8 24.0 20032 1568.5 1568.9 1072.9 496.0 -0.4 20033 1632.2 1622.9 1101.7 521.2 9.3 20034 1678.4 1649.4 1113.7 535.7 29.0 20041 1719.3 1677.4 1135.0 542.4 41.9 20042 1802.3 1736.7 1171.6 565.1 65.6 20043 1824.0 1773.6 1204.8 568.8 50.4 20044 1856.2 1806.1 1235.1 571.0 50.1 20051 1894.5 1836.3 1252.2 584.1 58.2 20052 1876.5 1878.2 1278.9 599.3 -1.7 20053 1901.8 1915.1 1305.2 609.9 -13.3 20054 1971.8 1933.9 1319.7 614.2 37.9 20061 2004.7 1982.8 1364.6 618.2 21.9 20062 2053.3 2010.8 1393.0 617.8 42.6 20063 2072.8 2020.3 1406.3 614.0 52.5 20064 2087.1 2034.2 1425.7 608.5 52.9 20071 2093.0 2043.2 1440.6 602.7 49.8 20072 2095.3 2048.3 1451.7 596.6 47.0 20073 2097.2 2053.1 1462.1 591.0 44.1 20074 2099.4 2057.2 1471.0 586.2 42.3 20081 2102.8 2061.4 1479.0 582.5 41.3 20082 2107.3 2066.2 1486.5 579.7 41.1 20083 2112.8 2071.6 1493.6 578.0 41.2 20084 2119.5 2077.8 1500.6 577.1 41.7 20091 2127.1 2084.7 1507.5 577.2 42.3 20092 2135.6 2092.6 1514.4 578.1 43.1 20093 2145.1 2101.2 1521.4 579.8 43.8 20094 2155.4 2110.8 1528.7 582.1 44.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -510.7 1009.7 1520.4 1884.4 20032 -528.4 1004.5 1532.9 1917.4 20033 -516.2 1032.2 1548.4 1920.0 20034 -530.2 1078.4 1608.6 1922.5 20041 -563.0 1091.8 1654.8 1938.3 20042 -601.7 1110.2 1711.9 1949.3 20043 -606.5 1125.0 1731.5 1958.2 20044 -634.0 1144.5 1778.5 1962.5 20051 -645.4 1165.3 1810.7 1971.6 20052 -614.3 1195.3 1809.6 1983.8 20053 -617.5 1202.7 1820.2 1998.0 20054 -655.2 1217.6 1872.8 1993.8 20061 -678.2 1252.8 1931.0 2013.2 20062 -692.9 1277.1 1970.1 2022.3 20063 -693.4 1301.9 1995.4 2031.4 20064 -692.0 1327.2 2019.2 2040.6 20071 -687.5 1353.0 2040.5 2049.8 20072 -680.2 1379.3 2059.5 2059.1 20073 -671.7 1406.1 2077.8 2068.4 20074 -662.4 1433.4 2095.8 2077.8 20081 -652.8 1461.3 2114.1 2087.3 20082 -643.4 1489.7 2133.0 2096.8 20083 -634.2 1518.6 2152.8 2106.4 20084 -625.4 1548.1 2173.5 2116.0 20091 -617.3 1578.2 2195.4 2125.7 20092 -609.7 1608.8 2218.6 2135.4 20093 -602.8 1640.1 2242.9 2145.2 20094 -596.5 1671.9 2268.4 2155.1
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1845.4 806.7 180.7 94.8 749.0 20032 1857.2 811.2 178.8 96.1 756.4 20033 1772.0 708.8 189.1 96.1 762.9 20034 1849.5 770.6 198.1 97.8 768.0 20041 1881.2 771.3 206.9 100.3 787.2 20042 1915.2 786.3 219.9 99.9 793.5 20043 1939.7 810.0 207.5 100.3 806.0 20044 2017.1 839.7 235.3 101.7 823.4 20051 2160.9 908.3 291.7 102.5 841.1 20052 2193.5 924.3 300.8 106.2 845.1 20053 2121.1 945.0 290.7 104.6 855.4 20054 2286.0 962.3 338.0 104.5 863.5 20061 2352.3 986.1 354.6 105.5 887.1 20062 2407.7 1021.3 354.1 107.3 906.0 20063 2458.7 1050.0 355.9 109.0 924.6 20064 2508.6 1078.3 357.8 110.8 942.7 20071 2556.9 1105.9 359.6 112.5 960.0 20072 2604.5 1132.8 362.0 114.2 976.6 20073 2652.1 1159.3 365.2 115.9 992.7 20074 2699.8 1185.5 369.2 117.5 1008.5 20081 2747.9 1211.8 373.8 119.2 1024.1 20082 2796.7 1238.1 379.1 120.9 1039.6 20083 2846.2 1264.7 384.8 122.6 1055.0 20084 2896.5 1291.6 391.0 124.4 1070.6 20091 2947.8 1319.0 397.5 126.1 1086.2 20092 3000.2 1346.9 404.4 127.9 1102.0 20093 3053.7 1375.3 411.6 129.7 1118.1 20094 3108.5 1404.5 419.1 131.5 1134.4
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.2 634.7 954.2 933.3 20.9 313.2 202.2 38.3 -295.8 20032 2231.0 667.6 966.8 948.7 18.1 344.6 198.5 52.1 -373.8 20033 2228.1 668.4 975.7 957.1 18.6 344.4 195.5 44.1 -456.1 20034 2254.3 676.8 979.9 965.7 14.2 354.0 199.8 43.8 -404.8 20041 2310.6 710.7 1015.4 988.1 27.3 342.6 201.9 41.5 -429.4 20042 2328.7 721.1 1011.8 994.9 16.9 349.9 203.4 41.0 -413.5 20043 2351.3 735.7 1021.5 1004.3 17.2 341.9 209.0 43.2 -411.6 20044 2388.8 735.1 1036.1 1018.8 17.3 358.7 210.5 48.4 -371.7 20051 2459.1 759.6 1079.7 1047.9 31.8 356.1 210.7 53.0 -298.2 20052 2490.7 762.8 1079.7 1061.5 18.2 358.6 234.4 55.2 -297.2 20053 2529.0 782.9 1097.1 1077.9 19.2 354.1 235.0 59.9 -407.9 20054 2574.4 773.1 1121.5 1091.6 29.9 361.7 252.6 65.5 -288.4 20061 2618.0 806.4 1173.9 1162.3 11.6 349.1 230.4 58.2 -265.7 20062 2669.3 820.6 1196.5 1184.9 11.6 355.9 238.1 58.2 -261.6 20063 2721.1 834.8 1219.5 1207.9 11.6 362.8 245.8 58.2 -262.4 20064 2773.6 849.2 1243.0 1231.4 11.6 369.8 253.4 58.2 -264.9 20071 2826.9 863.6 1266.9 1255.3 11.6 377.0 261.2 58.2 -269.9 20072 2880.9 878.0 1291.3 1279.7 11.6 384.4 269.1 58.2 -276.4 20073 2935.7 892.4 1316.1 1304.5 11.6 391.8 277.2 58.2 -283.7 20074 2991.3 906.8 1341.5 1329.9 11.6 399.4 285.4 58.2 -291.6 20081 3047.7 921.2 1367.3 1355.7 11.6 407.2 293.8 58.2 -299.8 20082 3104.8 935.5 1393.6 1382.0 11.6 415.1 302.3 58.2 -308.2 20083 3162.8 949.9 1420.5 1408.9 11.6 423.2 311.0 58.2 -316.7 20084 3221.6 964.4 1447.9 1436.3 11.6 431.4 319.8 58.2 -325.1 20091 3281.3 978.9 1475.8 1464.2 11.6 439.8 328.6 58.2 -333.5 20092 3341.8 993.5 1504.2 1492.6 11.6 448.3 337.5 58.2 -341.6 20093 3403.2 1008.3 1533.2 1521.6 11.6 457.0 346.5 58.2 -349.5 20094 3465.5 1023.1 1562.8 1551.2 11.6 465.9 355.5 58.2 -357.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1315.1 217.7 33.4 700.8 16.7 313.2 20032 1357.0 215.8 33.4 712.2 17.2 344.6 20033 1389.6 231.9 36.0 725.2 17.7 344.4 20034 1420.5 237.0 38.2 738.0 18.3 354.0 20041 1426.6 238.3 39.5 751.3 19.1 342.6 20042 1457.9 247.7 42.2 762.0 19.6 349.9 20043 1450.8 248.4 39.4 769.3 19.9 341.9 20044 1499.6 254.6 44.8 783.7 20.1 358.7 20051 1530.4 263.1 56.4 796.5 19.9 356.1 20052 1566.9 281.8 57.7 810.0 19.8 358.6 20053 1569.6 275.4 55.5 820.4 19.9 354.1 20054 1591.1 278.7 64.6 830.0 20.1 361.7 20061 1618.2 293.4 67.8 846.4 20.4 349.1 20062 1648.7 302.8 67.7 860.7 20.6 355.9 20063 1677.9 310.5 68.0 874.8 20.7 362.8 20064 1706.9 318.0 68.4 888.7 20.9 369.8 20071 1735.6 325.3 68.7 902.4 21.0 377.0 20072 1764.3 332.4 69.2 916.0 21.2 384.4 20073 1793.1 339.5 69.8 929.5 21.3 391.8 20074 1822.0 346.4 70.6 943.0 21.5 399.4 20081 1851.3 353.3 71.4 956.5 21.6 407.2 20082 1880.9 360.3 72.5 970.1 21.8 415.1 20083 1910.9 367.3 73.5 983.8 22.0 423.2 20084 1941.3 374.4 74.7 997.6 22.1 431.4 20091 1972.4 381.5 76.0 1011.7 22.3 439.8 20092 2004.0 388.8 77.3 1026.0 22.5 448.3 20093 2036.2 396.3 78.7 1040.5 22.6 457.0 20094 2069.1 403.9 80.1 1055.3 22.8 465.9
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1383.0 1070.8 294.8 20.0 2.3 -0.3 0.0 -67.9 20032 1383.2 1067.8 296.2 20.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 -26.2 20033 1403.5 1077.7 306.9 21.0 2.2 0.1 0.0 -13.9 20034 1408.1 1082.9 303.1 21.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 12.4 20041 1433.1 1095.1 316.3 21.3 2.0 2.4 0.0 -6.5 20042 1459.5 1108.9 328.1 21.6 2.1 3.0 0.0 -1.6 20043 1470.1 1123.9 323.5 22.0 2.4 3.1 0.0 -19.3 20044 1495.7 1143.1 329.7 22.6 3.1 3.4 0.0 3.9 20051 1523.0 1159.0 339.2 23.5 2.4 3.7 0.0 7.4 20052 1545.8 1175.7 344.9 23.7 2.5 4.0 0.0 21.1 20053 1575.9 1205.7 329.8 23.9 2.5 19.0 0.0 -6.3 20054 1601.4 1231.7 342.5 24.2 2.5 5.5 0.0 -10.3 20061 1601.2 1246.9 326.5 24.2 2.6 6.2 0.0 17.0 20062 1631.3 1270.3 333.0 24.4 2.6 6.2 0.0 17.4 20063 1662.4 1293.9 340.4 24.6 2.6 6.2 0.0 15.4 20064 1694.2 1317.7 348.2 24.7 2.6 6.2 0.0 12.6 20071 1726.6 1341.6 356.5 24.9 2.6 6.2 0.0 9.0 20072 1759.6 1365.6 365.3 25.1 2.6 6.2 0.0 4.7 20073 1793.1 1389.6 374.6 25.3 2.6 6.2 0.0 0.0 20074 1826.9 1413.6 384.3 25.5 2.6 6.2 0.0 -4.9 20081 1861.1 1437.5 394.2 25.7 2.6 6.2 0.0 -9.8 20082 1895.5 1461.6 404.5 25.9 2.6 6.2 0.0 -14.7 20083 1930.3 1485.7 414.9 26.1 2.6 6.2 0.0 -19.4 20084 1965.3 1509.9 425.6 26.2 2.6 6.2 0.0 -24.0 20091 2000.7 1534.2 436.4 26.4 2.6 6.2 0.0 -28.3 20092 2036.4 1558.7 447.4 26.6 2.6 6.2 0.0 -32.4 20093 2072.5 1583.5 458.6 26.8 2.6 6.2 0.0 -36.3 20094 2109.1 1608.5 469.9 27.0 2.6 6.2 0.0 -40.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.9 104.2 108.0 20032 106.0 105.1 92.9 103.6 108.9 20033 106.5 105.6 91.9 104.4 109.6 20034 107.0 105.9 90.9 104.5 110.4 20041 108.0 106.9 90.9 106.0 111.4 20042 109.0 107.9 90.9 107.7 112.3 20043 109.3 108.3 90.3 107.8 113.1 20044 110.1 109.1 90.4 109.0 113.9 20051 110.9 109.7 90.6 109.3 114.8 20052 111.6 110.6 90.5 110.8 115.6 20053 112.6 111.5 89.8 113.0 116.5 20054 113.5 112.5 89.7 113.2 117.8 20061 114.4 112.9 89.5 113.5 118.7 20062 115.6 114.0 90.4 114.6 119.9 20063 116.8 115.1 91.2 115.7 121.0 20064 118.1 116.2 92.1 116.8 122.2 20071 119.3 117.2 93.0 117.9 123.3 20072 120.4 118.3 93.8 119.0 124.4 20073 121.6 119.3 94.6 120.0 125.5 20074 122.7 120.3 95.4 121.0 126.6 20081 123.8 121.3 96.2 122.0 127.6 20082 124.9 122.3 97.0 123.0 128.6 20083 126.0 123.2 97.7 123.9 129.6 20084 127.0 124.1 98.5 124.9 130.6 20091 128.1 125.1 99.2 125.8 131.6 20092 129.1 126.0 99.9 126.7 132.6 20093 130.2 126.9 100.6 127.7 133.5 20094 131.2 127.8 101.4 128.6 134.5
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.0 20032 103.2 99.4 111.5 101.2 98.9 109.0 20033 103.8 99.7 112.2 101.4 99.6 109.7 20034 104.8 100.2 114.3 102.1 99.8 110.1 20041 105.7 100.5 116.5 103.6 102.1 111.8 20042 106.9 100.9 119.3 104.8 103.8 113.1 20043 107.6 101.2 121.3 105.2 105.2 114.0 20044 108.1 101.4 122.5 106.3 107.0 115.2 20051 108.8 102.2 123.0 107.5 107.7 116.8 20052 109.6 102.7 124.3 108.5 109.9 117.8 20053 110.7 103.3 126.3 109.3 112.4 119.7 20054 112.1 104.3 128.9 110.0 113.6 121.4 20061 112.9 105.1 130.1 110.7 113.4 122.8 20062 113.9 106.2 131.4 111.9 114.1 124.4 20063 115.0 107.2 132.7 113.1 114.8 126.0 20064 115.9 108.2 133.9 114.3 115.6 127.5 20071 116.9 109.2 135.2 115.4 116.3 129.1 20072 117.8 110.2 136.4 116.5 117.0 130.6 20073 118.8 111.2 137.6 117.6 117.7 132.1 20074 119.7 112.1 138.7 118.7 118.4 133.7 20081 120.6 113.0 139.9 119.8 119.2 135.2 20082 121.5 113.9 141.0 120.8 119.9 136.7 20083 122.4 114.8 142.1 121.8 120.7 138.1 20084 123.3 115.7 143.2 122.8 121.4 139.6 20091 124.2 116.5 144.2 123.7 122.2 141.1 20092 125.1 117.4 145.3 124.7 122.9 142.5 20093 126.0 118.3 146.3 125.6 123.7 144.0 20094 126.9 119.1 147.4 126.6 124.4 145.5
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment