US Forecast: July 28, 2006
Forecast Period

2006:3--2009:4 (14 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 28, 2006.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2006:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: July 28, 2006, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Finally, beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2006:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2006:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.5       
COG           3.0                  3.7       
JG            1.0                 -1.0       
TRGS          8.0                  6.2       
TRSH         10.0                  6.1       
COS           3.0                  4.2       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  5.5
PIM           2.5                  1.0

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 1.6, 2.3, 2.4, and 2.4 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate stays roughly unchanged throughout the forecast period. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.4, 1.8, 1.8, and 1.8 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, and 4.2 percent, respectively. These predicted values are higher than the actual values in the past few years and probably higher than most others are predicting. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 5.0 percent by the end of 2007.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $170 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) By the end of 2009 it is predicted to be $226.8 billion.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $800 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards. It falls to $685.5 billion by the end of 2009.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed tighten more than equation 30 is predicting?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or a depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period. (If you increase PIM, inflation will be even higher than is currently forecast.)

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1280. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1080, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: July 28, 2006
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20011 9875.6 -0.5 3997.9 1.1 1975.2 0.5 879.5 6.7 20012 9905.9 1.2 4016.0 1.8 1974.6 -0.1 878.9 -0.3 20013 9871.1 -1.4 4027.8 1.2 1986.5 2.4 885.6 3.1 20014 9910.0 1.6 4051.2 2.3 2010.3 4.9 958.7 37.3 20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10126.0 1.2 4143.3 1.5 2072.5 3.8 971.4 0.4 20032 10212.7 3.5 4161.3 1.7 2084.1 2.3 1009.8 16.8 20033 10398.7 7.5 4190.7 2.9 2123.0 7.7 1049.6 16.7 20034 10467.0 2.7 4220.2 2.8 2132.4 1.8 1051.4 0.7 20041 10566.3 3.8 4268.2 4.6 2155.3 4.4 1067.0 6.1 20042 10671.5 4.0 4308.5 3.8 2164.3 1.7 1071.4 1.7 20043 10753.3 3.1 4341.5 3.1 2184.0 3.7 1093.9 8.7 20044 10822.9 2.6 4377.4 3.3 2213.1 5.4 1110.3 6.1 20051 10913.8 3.4 4395.4 1.7 2241.5 5.2 1116.8 2.4 20052 11001.8 3.3 4420.0 2.3 2268.4 4.9 1150.8 12.7 20053 11115.1 4.2 4454.5 3.2 2287.6 3.4 1175.9 9.0 20054 11163.8 1.8 4476.7 2.0 2309.5 3.9 1137.9 -12.3 20061 11316.4 5.6 4494.5 1.6 2342.7 5.9 1190.5 19.8 20062 11385.3 2.5 4533.2 3.5 2352.4 1.7 1189.0 -0.5 20063 11431.3 1.6 4553.7 1.8 2363.0 1.8 1196.8 2.6 20064 11497.8 2.3 4576.7 2.0 2373.6 1.8 1204.7 2.7 20071 11566.0 2.4 4601.3 2.2 2384.0 1.8 1212.7 2.7 20072 11635.6 2.4 4627.0 2.3 2394.3 1.7 1220.6 2.6 20073 11709.1 2.6 4654.1 2.4 2404.5 1.7 1228.6 2.7 20074 11784.5 2.6 4682.5 2.5 2414.8 1.7 1236.9 2.7 20081 11861.9 2.7 4712.0 2.5 2425.3 1.8 1245.6 2.8 20082 11941.0 2.7 4742.4 2.6 2436.1 1.8 1254.6 2.9 20083 12021.6 2.7 4773.7 2.7 2447.0 1.8 1263.9 3.0 20084 12103.8 2.8 4805.8 2.7 2458.3 1.9 1273.6 3.1 20091 12187.6 2.8 4838.7 2.8 2469.8 1.9 1283.8 3.2 20092 12273.1 2.8 4872.4 2.8 2481.7 1.9 1294.3 3.3 20093 12360.2 2.9 4906.7 2.9 2493.8 2.0 1305.2 3.4 20094 12448.9 2.9 4941.8 2.9 2506.3 2.0 1316.5 3.5
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20011 378.5 12.9 1043.7 -10.8 -7.8 1495.4 -3.7 20012 385.9 8.1 1014.0 -10.9 -2.5 1445.8 -12.6 20013 382.7 -3.3 995.3 -7.2 -29.9 1407.1 -10.3 20014 375.5 -7.3 945.2 -18.7 -86.7 1394.8 -3.5 20021 386.8 12.6 908.4 -14.7 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 860.9 -19.3 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 875.3 6.9 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 866.0 -4.2 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 414.7 5.4 878.5 5.9 24.3 1510.5 -5.1 20032 426.1 11.4 892.1 6.3 -2.7 1525.9 4.1 20033 453.1 27.9 899.7 3.4 10.5 1540.0 3.7 20034 460.1 6.3 888.0 -5.1 25.0 1603.6 17.6 20041 450.3 -8.2 896.4 3.8 35.9 1643.2 10.2 20042 485.6 35.3 928.3 15.0 74.7 1705.2 16.0 20043 484.5 -0.9 925.2 -1.3 50.8 1723.7 4.4 20044 483.0 -1.2 941.7 7.3 52.0 1773.1 12.0 20051 498.8 13.7 961.2 8.6 55.2 1790.9 4.1 20052 530.1 27.6 974.5 5.6 -7.4 1797.1 1.4 20053 531.2 0.8 992.0 7.4 -12.7 1808.1 2.5 20054 528.2 -2.2 1004.2 5.0 43.5 1865.0 13.2 20061 525.9 -1.7 1037.3 13.9 41.2 1905.9 9.1 20062 517.3 -6.4 1044.3 2.7 52.6 1906.7 0.2 20063 508.8 -6.5 1048.7 1.7 39.0 1918.0 2.4 20064 501.0 -6.0 1060.2 4.5 36.5 1931.2 2.8 20071 494.8 -4.8 1071.2 4.2 35.3 1946.9 3.3 20072 489.2 -4.5 1080.4 3.5 35.2 1962.7 3.3 20073 483.8 -4.3 1092.1 4.4 36.1 1980.1 3.6 20074 479.1 -3.8 1103.7 4.3 37.0 1998.8 3.8 20081 475.2 -3.2 1115.2 4.2 38.0 2018.5 4.0 20082 472.2 -2.5 1126.6 4.2 39.1 2039.3 4.2 20083 469.8 -2.0 1137.8 4.1 40.0 2061.1 4.3 20084 468.1 -1.5 1148.9 3.9 40.8 2083.8 4.5 20091 467.0 -0.9 1159.8 3.9 41.6 2107.4 4.6 20092 466.5 -0.4 1170.6 3.8 42.3 2132.0 4.8 20093 466.6 0.1 1181.3 3.7 43.1 2157.6 4.9 20094 467.3 0.5 1191.9 3.6 43.8 2184.0 5.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20011 3.3 3.2 8.1 4.8 20012 3.3 3.4 3.1 -0.3 20013 1.5 1.1 2.3 1.2 20014 2.0 1.2 3.4 2.1 20021 1.5 0.6 4.7 4.1 20022 1.4 2.1 2.1 0.0 20023 1.5 0.9 1.8 0.9 20024 2.2 1.9 0.3 -1.6 20031 3.2 2.1 3.7 1.6 20032 1.3 0.3 9.4 9.1 20033 2.1 1.5 3.3 1.8 20034 2.2 1.4 2.7 1.3 20041 3.8 2.9 4.8 1.9 20042 3.7 3.4 6.4 2.8 20043 2.1 2.7 3.4 0.7 20044 3.2 3.0 6.7 3.6 20051 3.4 3.1 1.9 -1.2 20052 2.5 2.5 2.3 -0.2 20053 3.3 3.7 6.8 3.0 20054 3.3 3.7 5.1 1.4 20061 3.3 2.8 5.1 2.2 20062 3.3 3.6 4.0 0.3 20063 4.5 4.6 6.2 1.5 20064 4.4 4.4 6.1 1.6 20071 4.3 4.3 6.0 1.6 20072 4.2 4.2 5.9 1.6 20073 4.1 4.1 5.8 1.6 20074 4.0 4.0 5.8 1.7 20081 3.9 3.9 5.7 1.7 20082 3.9 3.9 5.6 1.7 20083 3.8 3.8 5.6 1.7 20084 3.8 3.7 5.5 1.8 20091 3.7 3.7 5.5 1.8 20092 3.6 3.6 5.5 1.8 20093 3.6 3.5 5.4 1.8 20094 3.6 3.5 5.4 1.8
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20011 4.8 7.1 7.3 1191.6 -0.2 63.9 20012 3.7 7.2 7.1 1207.5 5.5 64.8 20013 3.2 7.1 7.0 1241.5 11.7 69.9 20014 1.9 6.9 6.8 1302.2 21.0 64.8 20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1266.9 -10.4 66.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1274.9 2.5 66.7 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1292.6 5.7 68.2 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1311.9 6.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1336.7 7.8 74.0 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1369.6 10.2 73.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1359.3 -3.0 75.6 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1393.3 10.4 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1419.9 7.9 74.1 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1434.7 4.2 79.1 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1449.9 4.3 72.1 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1486.1 10.4 65.6 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1488.0 0.5 74.7 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1490.1 0.6 73.7 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1466.7 -6.1 66.9 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1481.6 4.1 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1506.2 6.8 67.6 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1487.4 -4.9 66.8 20063 4.5 6.0 6.7 1493.2 1.6 65.2 20064 4.5 6.1 6.8 1501.5 2.3 65.0 20071 4.7 6.2 7.0 1511.6 2.7 64.7 20072 4.8 6.3 7.1 1523.1 3.1 64.7 20073 4.9 6.4 7.3 1535.8 3.4 64.8 20074 5.0 6.5 7.4 1549.7 3.7 65.0 20081 5.0 6.6 7.5 1564.5 3.9 65.3 20082 5.1 6.7 7.6 1580.2 4.1 65.7 20083 5.1 6.8 7.7 1596.5 4.2 66.1 20084 5.2 6.8 7.8 1613.5 4.3 66.6 20091 5.2 6.9 7.9 1631.0 4.4 67.2 20092 5.3 7.0 7.9 1649.1 4.5 67.7 20093 5.3 7.0 8.0 1667.7 4.6 68.3 20094 5.3 7.1 8.0 1686.7 4.6 68.9
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20011 4.2 1.6 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.1 6.1 20012 4.4 -0.4 -2.6 -0.3 -2.5 -1.8 6.3 20013 4.8 -0.1 -0.4 3.0 -1.9 -1.0 6.9 20014 5.5 0.6 0.3 4.3 -2.4 -1.4 8.0 20021 5.7 0.4 0.1 0.6 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.5 4.8 -0.1 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.3 -0.8 4.4 -0.5 1.4 8.3 20024 5.9 -0.9 0.3 0.9 0.9 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.7 1.3 1.7 -0.7 0.6 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.5 2.7 -1.3 0.6 9.0 20033 6.1 0.4 -1.3 -0.5 1.2 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 1.1 -0.7 2.4 1.2 2.1 8.5 20041 5.7 -1.1 -0.5 5.1 1.2 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 8.2 20043 5.5 0.9 0.5 3.0 2.0 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 0.2 -0.1 4.0 1.4 1.5 8.0 20051 5.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 2.2 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 0.9 0.8 6.3 1.7 3.2 7.6 20053 5.0 1.5 1.9 2.6 0.3 2.3 7.5 20054 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.8 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.7 2.2 7.1 20062 4.7 0.2 0.1 5.0 1.1 1.9 7.0 20063 4.8 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.6 7.2 20064 4.8 0.4 0.8 2.3 1.8 1.0 7.3 20071 4.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.8 1.1 7.3 20072 4.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.8 1.2 7.4 20073 4.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.8 1.2 7.4 20074 4.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.7 1.2 7.4 20081 4.8 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.2 7.4 20082 4.8 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.5 1.1 7.5 20083 4.8 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.5 1.1 7.5 20084 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.4 1.1 7.6 20091 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.4 1.1 7.6 20092 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.4 1.1 7.6 20093 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.3 1.1 7.7 20094 4.9 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.3 1.2 7.7
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20011 -7520.8 523.9 -12.9 2.0 -2.5 410.9 156.6 32.6 20012 3099.7 534.9 8.7 1.2 5.3 376.3 123.7 25.8 20013 -9024.9 459.2 -45.7 3.6 1.8 352.5 -88.7 -8.5 20014 5655.2 407.1 -38.3 0.6 3.1 341.9 -4.9 -30.6 20021 7.8 415.7 8.8 3.0 4.0 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6735.6 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.9 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -8045.3 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.0 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3817.7 576.5 61.4 1.8 -0.9 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1293.8 557.8 -12.4 1.9 1.8 530.8 -290.3 -61.3 20032 6300.2 543.5 -9.8 2.2 6.2 512.7 -365.5 -27.1 20033 1760.5 591.6 40.3 2.4 6.7 509.9 -451.3 -8.2 20034 7292.3 669.2 63.7 2.3 0.4 495.6 -381.5 15.1 20041 1221.6 737.1 47.2 2.2 1.6 563.7 -401.0 -14.6 20042 969.4 790.9 32.6 2.0 5.2 649.8 -380.8 -13.6 20043 -614.4 839.6 27.0 1.7 3.6 651.2 -380.5 -22.3 20044 6609.8 839.7 0.1 2.4 -1.0 731.5 -365.7 -1.1 20051 -717.2 1062.9 156.7 0.6 0.6 751.3 -287.4 11.0 20052 1414.3 1122.5 24.4 -0.4 3.1 751.3 -289.7 12.4 20053 2793.7 1163.9 15.6 -1.5 7.6 715.0 -395.9 -19.2 20054 2501.7 1189.9 9.2 -0.3 -3.3 868.1 -263.6 -17.2 20061 3442.3 1280.9 34.3 -1.1 0.9 816.1 -164.6 12.6 20062 -1000.0 1334.5 17.8 -1.6 1.0 836.3 -155.7 24.7 20063 811.0 1302.9 -9.1 -1.0 0.5 819.8 -162.9 20.1 20064 1229.1 1321.2 5.8 -0.8 0.9 804.9 -167.1 15.7 20071 1172.4 1339.4 5.6 -0.6 0.8 792.3 -171.1 11.8 20072 1210.4 1359.1 6.0 -0.4 0.9 779.3 -175.7 8.0 20073 1298.5 1382.6 7.1 -0.2 1.1 767.5 -180.0 4.5 20074 1348.4 1408.3 7.6 0.0 1.3 756.5 -184.7 1.2 20081 1382.3 1436.3 8.2 0.1 1.4 746.1 -189.6 -2.0 20082 1421.4 1466.3 8.6 0.3 1.5 736.3 -194.8 -5.1 20083 1467.0 1497.9 8.9 0.4 1.6 726.8 -200.1 -8.1 20084 1511.7 1530.9 9.1 0.5 1.7 717.8 -205.6 -11.0 20091 1552.2 1565.4 9.3 0.6 1.8 709.2 -211.0 -13.8 20092 1590.9 1601.0 9.4 0.7 1.8 701.0 -216.4 -16.5 20093 1629.6 1637.8 9.5 0.8 1.9 693.1 -221.7 -19.0 20094 1667.6 1675.5 9.5 0.8 1.9 685.5 -226.8 -21.3
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20011 13.2 8.3 -5.3 803.6 17.7 -3.1 20012 17.8 14.8 -12.7 817.6 7.2 -5.9 20013 -0.6 -12.1 -18.2 835.9 9.3 -5.3 20014 20.8 20.2 -10.8 854.2 9.0 -10.0 20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.6 -7.4 -5.4 935.2 7.3 11.4 20032 37.9 -2.1 -1.7 950.7 6.8 -3.9 20033 0.6 6.2 11.3 958.9 3.5 2.6 20034 6.1 -2.5 20.8 967.2 3.5 0.4 20041 12.2 1.0 7.3 988.9 9.3 9.6 20042 5.2 4.6 6.2 996.9 3.3 7.2 20043 8.0 -3.7 4.8 1006.4 3.9 5.5 20044 -11.5 -3.0 10.0 1019.3 5.2 6.7 20051 5.8 0.8 4.7 1049.6 12.4 2.7 20052 1.7 2.8 9.4 1059.7 3.9 9.3 20053 18.9 -3.0 3.2 1070.7 4.2 10.2 20054 -9.4 1.7 9.6 1079.2 3.2 4.3 20061 20.2 6.9 14.0 1130.8 20.5 -0.7 20062 -5.5 5.8 3.3 1148.1 6.3 9.4 20063 3.0 3.0 8.0 1170.4 8.0 2.5 20064 3.0 3.0 8.0 1193.1 8.0 2.5 20071 3.0 3.0 8.0 1216.3 8.0 2.5 20072 3.0 3.0 8.0 1239.9 8.0 2.5 20073 3.0 3.0 8.0 1264.0 8.0 2.5 20074 3.0 3.0 8.0 1288.6 8.0 2.5 20081 3.0 3.0 8.0 1313.6 8.0 2.5 20082 3.0 3.0 8.0 1339.1 8.0 2.5 20083 3.0 3.0 8.0 1365.2 8.0 2.5 20084 3.0 3.0 8.0 1391.7 8.0 2.5 20091 3.0 3.0 8.0 1418.7 8.0 2.5 20092 3.0 3.0 8.0 1446.3 8.0 2.5 20093 3.0 3.0 8.0 1474.4 8.0 2.5 20094 3.0 3.0 8.0 1503.0 8.0 2.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1908.6 776.0 229.4 100.6 787.8 20042 1949.2 791.4 246.5 100.5 795.8 20043 1977.5 810.8 242.8 101.4 807.1 20044 2022.4 827.5 259.3 102.3 817.9 20051 2177.5 891.2 327.6 104.6 838.3 20052 2205.6 910.9 321.4 110.3 846.1 20053 2147.5 941.0 309.5 109.5 863.2 20054 2314.1 968.4 347.1 108.5 873.8 20061 2434.5 1032.5 374.3 109.4 900.8 20062 2490.0 1061.8 384.3 112.0 914.2 20063 2535.6 1095.3 378.4 113.7 930.5 20064 2585.2 1122.9 381.8 115.4 947.4 20071 2635.8 1151.2 385.2 117.1 964.6 20072 2687.0 1179.8 388.9 118.8 981.8 20073 2739.3 1208.8 393.2 120.5 999.1 20074 2792.4 1238.1 398.0 122.3 1016.3 20081 2846.3 1267.8 403.2 124.1 1033.4 20082 2901.0 1297.9 408.8 125.9 1050.6 20083 2956.4 1328.4 414.7 127.8 1067.8 20084 3012.6 1359.3 420.9 129.7 1085.1 20091 3069.8 1390.8 427.3 131.6 1102.5 20092 3128.1 1422.9 433.9 133.5 1120.0 20093 3187.5 1455.8 440.8 135.5 1137.8 20094 3248.1 1489.3 447.8 137.5 1155.8
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20011 1898.2 518.4 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2309.6 712.2 988.9 26.9 339.5 200.3 43.3 -401.0 20042 2330.0 722.6 996.9 16.4 349.8 200.1 42.7 -380.8 20043 2358.0 734.8 1006.4 16.8 345.7 209.1 45.2 -380.5 20044 2388.1 728.3 1019.3 16.7 361.2 211.8 50.8 -365.7 20051 2464.9 758.0 1049.6 31.1 355.9 214.7 55.6 -287.4 20052 2495.3 760.8 1059.7 19.4 359.8 235.9 59.7 -289.7 20053 2543.4 784.3 1070.7 23.3 361.9 239.5 63.7 -395.9 20054 2577.7 771.1 1079.2 30.7 366.8 261.8 68.1 -263.6 20061 2599.1 803.6 1130.8 14.8 351.3 242.5 56.1 -164.6 20062 2645.7 802.5 1148.1 14.3 357.0 270.4 53.4 -155.7 20063 2698.5 816.7 1170.4 14.3 363.9 279.8 53.4 -162.9 20064 2752.3 830.9 1193.1 14.3 371.0 289.5 53.4 -167.1 20071 2806.9 845.1 1216.3 14.3 378.2 299.6 53.4 -171.1 20072 2862.6 859.4 1239.9 14.3 385.6 310.0 53.4 -175.7 20073 2919.4 873.7 1264.0 14.3 393.1 320.9 53.4 -180.0 20074 2977.1 888.1 1288.6 14.3 400.7 332.0 53.4 -184.7 20081 3036.0 902.6 1313.6 14.3 408.5 343.5 53.4 -189.6 20082 3095.7 917.2 1339.1 14.3 416.4 355.2 53.4 -194.8 20083 3156.5 931.9 1365.2 14.3 424.5 367.2 53.4 -200.1 20084 3218.2 946.7 1391.7 14.3 432.7 379.4 53.4 -205.6 20091 3280.9 961.6 1418.7 14.3 441.1 391.7 53.4 -211.0 20092 3344.6 976.6 1446.3 14.3 449.7 404.2 53.4 -216.4 20093 3409.2 991.8 1474.4 14.3 458.5 416.9 53.4 -221.7 20094 3474.9 1007.1 1503.0 14.3 467.4 429.7 53.4 -226.8
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.7 240.1 40.4 760.3 23.1 339.5 20042 1468.1 242.0 43.7 772.7 24.0 349.8 20043 1475.8 250.8 42.7 780.9 24.7 345.7 20044 1527.5 260.7 45.6 798.4 25.2 361.2 20051 1555.7 266.7 58.7 813.0 25.3 355.9 20052 1586.3 280.9 57.1 826.9 25.3 359.8 20053 1594.8 274.0 54.7 837.5 25.3 361.9 20054 1611.2 279.3 61.3 845.5 25.2 366.8 20061 1635.6 293.4 66.4 861.5 24.8 351.3 20062 1673.3 311.4 68.2 872.9 24.7 357.0 20063 1701.4 320.4 67.1 885.9 24.9 363.9 20064 1729.9 327.9 67.7 899.1 25.1 371.0 20071 1758.8 335.5 68.3 912.4 25.3 378.2 20072 1788.1 343.2 69.0 925.8 25.4 385.6 20073 1818.0 351.0 69.8 939.5 25.6 393.1 20074 1848.3 358.8 70.6 953.3 25.8 400.7 20081 1879.2 366.8 71.5 967.3 26.0 408.5 20082 1910.6 374.8 72.5 981.6 26.2 416.4 20083 1942.5 382.9 73.6 996.0 26.4 424.5 20084 1974.9 391.2 74.7 1010.6 26.6 432.7 20091 2007.9 399.6 75.8 1025.5 26.8 441.1 20092 2041.5 408.1 77.0 1040.6 27.0 449.7 20093 2075.7 416.8 78.2 1056.0 27.2 458.5 20094 2110.5 425.7 79.4 1071.6 27.4 467.4
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 15.1 20041 1453.3 1103.9 320.1 28.7 2.1 2.7 -14.6 20042 1481.7 1120.9 329.9 29.4 2.2 3.7 -13.6 20043 1498.1 1136.6 329.2 30.0 2.4 4.7 -22.3 20044 1528.6 1160.0 335.5 30.5 3.0 5.6 -1.1 20051 1544.7 1174.6 336.7 29.9 2.3 5.8 11.0 20052 1573.9 1192.8 346.1 30.3 2.5 7.2 12.4 20053 1614.0 1217.8 345.7 30.9 2.5 22.1 -19.2 20054 1628.4 1243.4 347.4 31.8 2.5 8.3 -17.2 20061 1623.0 1256.2 329.4 31.7 2.5 8.2 12.6 20062 1648.6 1281.1 329.5 32.0 2.6 8.6 24.7 20063 1681.3 1305.3 337.8 32.2 2.6 8.6 20.1 20064 1714.2 1329.5 346.2 32.5 2.6 8.6 15.7 20071 1747.0 1353.7 354.6 32.7 2.6 8.6 11.8 20072 1780.1 1378.1 363.0 33.0 2.6 8.6 8.0 20073 1813.4 1402.6 371.6 33.2 2.6 8.6 4.5 20074 1847.1 1427.3 380.4 33.5 2.6 8.6 1.2 20081 1881.2 1452.1 389.4 33.7 2.6 8.6 -2.0 20082 1915.7 1477.1 398.6 33.9 2.6 8.6 -5.1 20083 1950.6 1502.3 408.1 34.2 2.6 8.6 -8.1 20084 1986.0 1527.7 417.8 34.5 2.6 8.6 -11.0 20091 2021.7 1553.3 427.7 34.7 2.6 8.6 -13.8 20092 2058.0 1579.2 437.8 35.0 2.6 8.6 -16.5 20093 2094.7 1605.3 448.2 35.2 2.6 8.6 -19.0 20094 2131.8 1631.6 458.7 35.5 2.6 8.6 -21.3
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20011 -152.2 -365.8 36.8 410.9 159.1 -88.7 20012 -203.9 -242.1 57.4 376.3 121.8 -109.5 20013 -47.0 -158.5 56.7 352.5 -83.5 -120.2 20014 -252.3 7.9 71.5 341.9 -5.8 -163.2 20021 -78.3 -64.4 101.8 421.0 -209.7 -170.4 20022 -101.1 -17.9 71.1 459.5 -244.8 -166.9 20023 -173.3 34.6 88.2 463.5 -249.0 -163.9 20024 -209.8 83.0 95.3 489.3 -288.5 -169.3 20031 -204.6 21.7 136.0 530.8 -289.9 -194.0 20032 -192.9 76.9 129.5 512.7 -368.0 -158.2 20033 -205.7 165.7 132.5 509.9 -456.0 -146.4 20034 -223.8 129.5 113.3 495.6 -395.7 -118.9 20041 -227.0 103.6 114.6 563.7 -409.5 -145.5 20042 -294.3 56.4 125.0 649.8 -387.5 -149.5 20043 -276.4 130.0 44.9 651.2 -391.4 -158.3 20044 -254.7 -38.7 80.5 731.5 -381.2 -137.3 20051 -433.1 -17.6 130.4 751.3 -303.9 -127.1 20052 -569.6 141.8 110.2 751.3 -300.9 -132.7 20053 -497.1 273.7 61.9 715.0 -406.5 -147.0 20054 -567.4 26.5 119.8 868.1 -286.5 -160.6 20061 -650.1 3.8 156.8 816.1 -191.1 -135.4 20062 -684.5 3.2 154.8 836.3 -182.0 -127.8 20063 -628.8 -27.0 159.1 819.8 -189.2 -133.9 20064 -604.7 -30.4 163.3 804.9 -193.3 -139.8 20071 -582.3 -34.7 167.3 792.3 -197.4 -145.2 20072 -560.7 -37.4 171.2 779.3 -201.9 -150.5 20073 -540.1 -40.6 175.0 767.5 -206.3 -155.5 20074 -521.7 -42.3 178.7 756.5 -210.9 -160.4 20081 -505.4 -42.1 182.4 746.1 -215.8 -165.2 20082 -491.1 -40.3 185.9 736.3 -220.9 -169.9 20083 -478.5 -37.0 189.4 726.8 -226.2 -174.5 20084 -467.6 -32.4 192.8 717.8 -231.6 -179.1 20091 -458.3 -26.6 196.1 709.2 -237.0 -183.5 20092 -450.4 -19.9 199.4 701.0 -242.4 -187.8 20093 -443.7 -12.5 202.6 693.1 -247.6 -191.9 20094 -438.3 -4.4 205.8 685.5 -252.6 -195.9 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 10021.5 6955.8 872.1 2000.0 4083.7 20012 10133.0 7017.5 864.7 2016.6 4136.2 20013 10135.1 7058.4 865.1 2024.2 4169.1 20014 10226.2 7188.3 932.8 2027.5 4228.0 20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10705.5 7548.2 911.5 2159.0 4477.7 20032 10831.8 7628.3 937.3 2155.4 4535.6 20033 11086.0 7782.6 964.4 2216.8 4601.4 20034 11219.5 7855.3 957.4 2229.5 4668.4 20041 11431.0 8018.0 971.5 2284.7 4761.8 20042 11649.3 8148.2 976.2 2327.8 4844.2 20043 11799.5 8265.0 990.9 2355.5 4918.6 20044 11970.3 8414.8 1006.4 2412.7 4995.7 20051 12173.2 8519.7 1013.1 2450.2 5056.4 20052 12346.2 8674.6 1042.3 2508.6 5123.7 20053 12573.5 8847.3 1057.3 2584.9 5205.1 20054 12730.4 8927.8 1019.6 2613.5 5294.7 20061 13008.4 9079.1 1064.1 2658.2 5356.8 20062 13193.8 9228.3 1060.8 2722.9 5444.6 20063 13395.1 9365.6 1078.5 2762.8 5524.3 20064 13617.9 9505.0 1096.2 2802.2 5606.5 20071 13843.0 9646.0 1114.0 2841.5 5690.5 20072 14069.8 9788.1 1131.8 2880.4 5775.9 20073 14301.7 9932.1 1149.7 2919.3 5863.1 20074 14536.4 10078.3 1168.0 2958.2 5952.1 20081 14774.2 10226.7 1186.6 2997.5 6042.6 20082 15014.9 10377.1 1205.5 3036.9 6134.6 20083 15258.3 10529.6 1224.9 3076.7 6228.0 20084 15504.7 10684.5 1244.7 3116.9 6322.8 20091 15754.3 10841.7 1265.1 3157.6 6419.0 20092 16007.5 11001.4 1285.9 3198.8 6516.7 20093 16264.4 11163.8 1307.3 3240.6 6615.9 20094 16525.2 11328.9 1329.2 3283.0 6716.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1675.3 1685.2 1229.6 455.6 -9.9 20012 1651.8 1654.7 1187.1 467.6 -2.9 20013 1613.0 1644.8 1167.2 477.6 -31.8 20014 1521.3 1599.5 1123.2 476.3 -78.2 20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1606.3 1583.3 1044.0 539.3 23.0 20032 1617.1 1620.6 1067.4 553.2 -3.5 20033 1690.5 1678.7 1093.3 585.4 11.8 20034 1742.3 1716.4 1104.8 611.6 25.9 20041 1781.9 1743.9 1112.1 631.8 38.0 20042 1892.1 1812.8 1137.6 675.2 79.3 20043 1917.7 1862.9 1170.0 692.9 54.8 20044 1960.2 1902.9 1201.5 701.4 57.3 20051 2013.5 1954.1 1230.0 724.1 59.4 20052 2009.1 2016.7 1251.8 764.9 -7.6 20053 2052.6 2067.9 1276.7 791.2 -15.3 20054 2154.4 2105.8 1304.3 801.5 48.6 20061 2214.9 2167.7 1359.2 808.5 47.2 20062 2237.4 2177.7 1378.3 799.4 59.7 20063 2240.5 2195.8 1398.8 796.9 44.7 20064 2264.5 2222.2 1427.1 795.1 42.3 20071 2291.3 2250.0 1454.7 795.3 41.3 20072 2318.2 2276.6 1480.6 795.9 41.6 20073 2349.1 2306.1 1509.4 796.8 42.9 20074 2381.0 2336.5 1538.2 798.3 44.4 20081 2414.1 2368.0 1567.0 801.0 46.1 20082 2448.3 2400.6 1596.0 804.6 47.8 20083 2483.3 2433.9 1624.9 809.1 49.3 20084 2518.9 2468.2 1653.8 814.4 50.8 20091 2555.4 2503.3 1682.7 820.6 52.1 20092 2592.8 2539.4 1711.6 827.7 53.5 20093 2631.2 2576.3 1740.7 835.6 54.9 20094 2670.5 2614.2 1769.9 844.4 56.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20011 -393.0 1100.7 1493.7 1783.4 596.2 1187.2 20012 -361.7 1060.5 1422.2 1825.4 610.9 1214.5 20013 -361.8 1003.5 1365.3 1825.5 614.3 1211.2 20014 -351.6 966.6 1318.2 1868.2 630.1 1238.1 20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -499.3 1012.4 1511.7 2050.3 725.9 1324.4 20032 -501.3 1010.8 1512.1 2087.7 762.2 1325.5 20033 -495.2 1040.7 1535.9 2108.1 764.8 1343.3 20034 -501.8 1099.1 1600.9 2123.7 772.8 1350.9 20041 -543.4 1135.1 1678.5 2174.5 808.2 1366.3 20042 -606.2 1166.3 1772.5 2215.2 823.8 1391.4 20043 -630.6 1185.3 1815.9 2247.4 838.4 1409.0 20044 -672.7 1225.8 1898.5 2268.0 833.2 1434.8 20051 -676.2 1254.0 1930.2 2316.2 862.9 1453.3 20052 -686.4 1293.8 1980.2 2348.9 868.4 1480.5 20053 -728.8 1312.4 2041.2 2402.4 895.8 1506.6 20054 -775.4 1352.4 2127.8 2423.6 886.2 1537.4 20061 -765.2 1405.4 2170.6 2479.6 921.7 1557.9 20062 -783.2 1437.4 2220.6 2511.3 921.8 1589.5 20063 -765.9 1481.8 2247.6 2555.0 937.5 1617.5 20064 -750.2 1526.9 2277.1 2598.6 953.1 1645.5 20071 -736.8 1572.9 2309.7 2642.5 968.8 1673.6 20072 -723.0 1620.0 2343.0 2686.5 984.6 1701.9 20073 -710.4 1668.1 2378.4 2730.9 1000.5 1730.4 20074 -698.5 1717.2 2415.7 2775.6 1016.5 1759.1 20081 -687.2 1767.4 2454.6 2820.6 1032.6 1788.0 20082 -676.5 1818.8 2495.3 2865.9 1048.8 1817.1 20083 -666.2 1871.3 2537.5 2911.6 1065.1 1846.5 20084 -656.3 1925.0 2581.3 2957.6 1081.5 1876.1 20091 -646.8 1980.0 2626.8 3004.0 1098.0 1906.0 20092 -637.7 2036.3 2673.9 3050.9 1114.7 1936.2 20093 -628.8 2093.9 2722.7 3098.2 1131.6 1966.6 20094 -620.3 2152.9 2773.2 3146.1 1148.6 1997.5
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 9875.6 6852.6 879.5 1975.2 3997.9 20012 9905.9 6869.5 878.9 1974.6 4016.0 20013 9871.1 6899.9 885.6 1986.5 4027.8 20014 9910.0 7020.2 958.7 2010.3 4051.2 20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10126.0 7187.2 971.4 2072.5 4143.3 20032 10212.7 7255.2 1009.8 2084.1 4161.3 20033 10398.7 7363.3 1049.6 2123.0 4190.7 20034 10467.0 7404.0 1051.4 2132.4 4220.2 20041 10566.3 7490.5 1067.0 2155.3 4268.2 20042 10671.5 7544.2 1071.4 2164.3 4308.5 20043 10753.3 7619.4 1093.9 2184.0 4341.5 20044 10822.9 7700.8 1110.3 2213.1 4377.4 20051 10913.8 7753.7 1116.8 2241.5 4395.4 20052 11001.8 7839.2 1150.8 2268.4 4420.0 20053 11115.1 7918.0 1175.9 2287.6 4454.5 20054 11163.8 7924.1 1137.9 2309.5 4476.7 20061 11316.4 8027.7 1190.5 2342.7 4494.5 20062 11385.3 8074.6 1189.0 2352.4 4533.2 20063 11431.3 8113.5 1196.8 2363.0 4553.7 20064 11497.8 8155.0 1204.7 2373.6 4576.7 20071 11566.0 8198.0 1212.7 2384.0 4601.3 20072 11635.6 8241.8 1220.6 2394.3 4627.0 20073 11709.1 8287.2 1228.6 2404.5 4654.1 20074 11784.5 8334.2 1236.9 2414.8 4682.5 20081 11861.9 8382.9 1245.6 2425.3 4712.0 20082 11941.0 8433.0 1254.6 2436.1 4742.4 20083 12021.6 8484.6 1263.9 2447.0 4773.7 20084 12103.8 8537.7 1273.6 2458.3 4805.8 20091 12187.6 8592.3 1283.8 2469.8 4838.7 20092 12273.1 8648.3 1294.3 2481.7 4872.4 20093 12360.2 8705.8 1305.2 2493.8 4906.7 20094 12448.9 8764.7 1316.5 2506.3 4941.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20011 1670.6 1678.4 1234.4 444.0 -7.8 20012 1637.8 1640.3 1190.2 450.1 -2.5 20013 1591.5 1621.4 1169.3 452.1 -29.9 20014 1489.3 1576.0 1128.2 447.8 -86.7 20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1555.9 1531.6 1047.5 484.1 24.3 20032 1568.0 1570.7 1074.4 496.3 -2.7 20033 1631.0 1620.5 1098.7 521.8 10.5 20034 1666.7 1641.7 1106.5 535.2 25.0 20041 1686.3 1650.4 1111.2 539.2 35.9 20042 1769.5 1694.8 1130.7 564.1 74.7 20043 1778.2 1727.4 1158.8 568.6 50.8 20044 1802.0 1750.0 1182.3 567.7 52.0 20051 1837.6 1782.4 1199.6 582.8 55.2 20052 1817.3 1824.7 1214.8 609.9 -7.4 20053 1840.1 1852.8 1232.4 620.4 -12.7 20054 1910.6 1867.1 1248.2 618.9 43.5 20061 1948.5 1907.3 1288.8 618.5 41.2 20062 1958.5 1905.9 1297.5 608.4 52.6 20063 1943.2 1904.2 1303.7 600.5 39.0 20064 1947.0 1910.4 1317.1 593.3 36.5 20071 1953.1 1917.8 1329.9 587.8 35.3 20072 1959.2 1923.9 1341.1 582.8 35.2 20073 1968.8 1932.8 1354.7 578.1 36.1 20074 1979.3 1942.3 1368.2 574.1 37.0 20081 1990.6 1952.5 1381.6 570.9 38.0 20082 2002.6 1963.5 1395.0 568.6 39.1 20083 2015.0 1975.0 1408.2 566.9 40.0 20084 2027.9 1987.0 1421.2 565.8 40.8 20091 2041.2 1999.6 1434.1 565.4 41.6 20092 2055.0 2012.6 1446.9 565.7 42.3 20093 2069.2 2026.2 1459.6 566.5 43.1 20094 2084.0 2040.2 1472.3 567.9 43.8
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20011 -398.2 1097.2 1495.4 1749.6 20012 -385.2 1060.6 1445.8 1783.0 20013 -398.4 1008.7 1407.1 1776.1 20014 -414.5 980.3 1394.8 1812.6 20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -507.2 1003.3 1510.5 1879.3 20032 -526.9 999.0 1525.9 1907.4 20033 -513.8 1026.2 1540.0 1914.4 20034 -527.8 1075.8 1603.6 1917.9 20041 -548.4 1094.8 1643.2 1931.7 20042 -593.9 1111.3 1705.2 1942.4 20043 -599.4 1124.3 1723.7 1948.6 20044 -621.8 1151.3 1773.1 1939.2 20051 -626.4 1164.5 1790.9 1947.0 20052 -606.1 1191.0 1797.1 1952.4 20053 -607.6 1200.5 1808.1 1968.7 20054 -636.6 1228.4 1865.0 1963.3 20061 -636.6 1269.3 1905.9 1987.0 20062 -627.1 1279.6 1906.7 1989.8 20063 -613.6 1304.5 1918.0 1998.7 20064 -601.4 1329.8 1931.2 2007.7 20071 -591.2 1355.6 1946.9 2016.7 20072 -580.7 1382.0 1962.7 2025.8 20073 -571.3 1408.8 1980.1 2034.9 20074 -562.6 1436.2 1998.8 2044.1 20081 -554.4 1464.1 2018.5 2053.4 20082 -546.8 1492.5 2039.3 2062.7 20083 -539.5 1521.5 2061.1 2072.0 20084 -532.7 1551.1 2083.8 2081.4 20091 -526.2 1581.2 2107.4 2090.9 20092 -520.1 1611.9 2132.0 2100.4 20093 -514.3 1643.2 2157.6 2110.0 20094 -508.9 1675.2 2184.0 2119.6
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20011 2054.8 1047.3 180.7 94.2 716.4 20012 2050.4 1045.7 176.6 93.6 718.1 20013 1865.6 881.0 159.7 90.7 717.9 20014 1969.9 1004.1 141.6 90.8 717.6 20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1908.6 776.0 229.4 100.6 787.8 20042 1949.2 791.4 246.5 100.5 795.8 20043 1977.5 810.8 242.8 101.4 807.1 20044 2022.4 827.5 259.3 102.3 817.9 20051 2177.5 891.2 327.6 104.6 838.3 20052 2205.6 910.9 321.4 110.3 846.1 20053 2147.5 941.0 309.5 109.5 863.2 20054 2314.1 968.4 347.1 108.5 873.8 20061 2434.5 1032.5 374.3 109.4 900.8 20062 2490.0 1061.8 384.3 112.0 914.2 20063 2535.6 1095.3 378.4 113.7 930.5 20064 2585.2 1122.9 381.8 115.4 947.4 20071 2635.8 1151.2 385.2 117.1 964.6 20072 2687.0 1179.8 388.9 118.8 981.8 20073 2739.3 1208.8 393.2 120.5 999.1 20074 2792.4 1238.1 398.0 122.3 1016.3 20081 2846.3 1267.8 403.2 124.1 1033.4 20082 2901.0 1297.9 408.8 125.9 1050.6 20083 2956.4 1328.4 414.7 127.8 1067.8 20084 3012.6 1359.3 420.9 129.7 1085.1 20091 3069.8 1390.8 427.3 131.6 1102.5 20092 3128.1 1422.9 433.9 133.5 1120.0 20093 3187.5 1455.8 440.8 135.5 1137.8 20094 3248.1 1489.3 447.8 137.5 1155.8
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20011 1898.2 518.4 810.5 803.6 6.9 266.5 254.7 48.1 156.6 20012 1926.7 528.0 825.6 817.6 8.0 278.3 245.1 49.7 123.7 20013 1954.3 532.7 844.8 835.9 8.9 272.8 235.4 68.6 -88.7 20014 1974.8 548.4 868.4 854.2 14.2 286.6 225.5 45.9 -4.9 20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 955.6 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 968.2 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 977.3 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 981.1 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2309.6 712.2 1015.8 988.9 26.9 339.5 200.3 43.3 -401.0 20042 2330.0 722.6 1013.3 996.9 16.4 349.8 200.1 42.7 -380.8 20043 2358.0 734.8 1023.2 1006.4 16.8 345.7 209.1 45.2 -380.5 20044 2388.1 728.3 1036.0 1019.3 16.7 361.2 211.8 50.8 -365.7 20051 2464.9 758.0 1080.7 1049.6 31.1 355.9 214.7 55.6 -287.4 20052 2495.3 760.8 1079.1 1059.7 19.4 359.8 235.9 59.7 -289.7 20053 2543.4 784.3 1094.0 1070.7 23.3 361.9 239.5 63.7 -395.9 20054 2577.7 771.1 1109.9 1079.2 30.7 366.8 261.8 68.1 -263.6 20061 2599.1 803.6 1145.6 1130.8 14.8 351.3 242.5 56.1 -164.6 20062 2645.7 802.5 1162.4 1148.1 14.3 357.0 270.4 53.4 -155.7 20063 2698.5 816.7 1184.7 1170.4 14.3 363.9 279.8 53.4 -162.9 20064 2752.3 830.9 1207.4 1193.1 14.3 371.0 289.5 53.4 -167.1 20071 2806.9 845.1 1230.6 1216.3 14.3 378.2 299.6 53.4 -171.1 20072 2862.6 859.4 1254.2 1239.9 14.3 385.6 310.0 53.4 -175.7 20073 2919.4 873.7 1278.3 1264.0 14.3 393.1 320.9 53.4 -180.0 20074 2977.1 888.1 1302.9 1288.6 14.3 400.7 332.0 53.4 -184.7 20081 3036.0 902.6 1327.9 1313.6 14.3 408.5 343.5 53.4 -189.6 20082 3095.7 917.2 1353.4 1339.1 14.3 416.4 355.2 53.4 -194.8 20083 3156.5 931.9 1379.5 1365.2 14.3 424.5 367.2 53.4 -200.1 20084 3218.2 946.7 1406.0 1391.7 14.3 432.7 379.4 53.4 -205.6 20091 3280.9 961.6 1433.0 1418.7 14.3 441.1 391.7 53.4 -211.0 20092 3344.6 976.6 1460.6 1446.3 14.3 449.7 404.2 53.4 -216.4 20093 3409.2 991.8 1488.7 1474.4 14.3 458.5 416.9 53.4 -221.7 20094 3474.9 1007.1 1517.3 1503.0 14.3 467.4 429.7 53.4 -226.8
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20011 1235.0 249.2 32.4 644.1 12.7 266.5 20012 1266.8 266.6 31.9 646.0 13.5 278.3 20013 1226.5 229.3 29.2 647.9 14.0 272.8 20014 1245.0 225.8 27.4 659.3 14.4 286.6 20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.7 240.1 40.4 760.3 23.1 339.5 20042 1468.1 242.0 43.7 772.7 24.0 349.8 20043 1475.8 250.8 42.7 780.9 24.7 345.7 20044 1527.5 260.7 45.6 798.4 25.2 361.2 20051 1555.7 266.7 58.7 813.0 25.3 355.9 20052 1586.3 280.9 57.1 826.9 25.3 359.8 20053 1594.8 274.0 54.7 837.5 25.3 361.9 20054 1611.2 279.3 61.3 845.5 25.2 366.8 20061 1635.6 293.4 66.4 861.5 24.8 351.3 20062 1673.3 311.4 68.2 872.9 24.7 357.0 20063 1701.4 320.4 67.1 885.9 24.9 363.9 20064 1729.9 327.9 67.7 899.1 25.1 371.0 20071 1758.8 335.5 68.3 912.4 25.3 378.2 20072 1788.1 343.2 69.0 925.8 25.4 385.6 20073 1818.0 351.0 69.8 939.5 25.6 393.1 20074 1848.3 358.8 70.6 953.3 25.8 400.7 20081 1879.2 366.8 71.5 967.3 26.0 408.5 20082 1910.6 374.8 72.5 981.6 26.2 416.4 20083 1942.5 382.9 73.6 996.0 26.4 424.5 20084 1974.9 391.2 74.7 1010.6 26.6 432.7 20091 2007.9 399.6 75.8 1025.5 26.8 441.1 20092 2041.5 408.1 77.0 1040.6 27.0 449.7 20093 2075.7 416.8 78.2 1056.0 27.2 458.5 20094 2110.5 425.7 79.4 1071.6 27.4 467.4
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20011 1202.4 951.7 249.1 1.1 2.0 2.5 0.0 32.6 20012 1241.0 963.6 265.6 3.9 1.9 9.8 0.0 25.8 20013 1235.0 976.6 252.0 6.7 1.9 1.6 0.0 -8.5 20014 1275.6 987.1 280.8 9.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 -30.6 20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 0.0 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 15.1 20041 1453.3 1103.9 320.1 28.7 2.1 2.7 0.0 -14.6 20042 1481.7 1120.9 329.9 29.4 2.2 3.7 0.0 -13.6 20043 1498.1 1136.6 329.2 30.0 2.4 4.7 0.0 -22.3 20044 1528.6 1160.0 335.5 30.5 3.0 5.6 0.0 -1.1 20051 1544.7 1174.6 336.7 29.9 2.3 5.8 0.0 11.0 20052 1573.9 1192.8 346.1 30.3 2.5 7.2 0.0 12.4 20053 1614.0 1217.8 345.7 30.9 2.5 22.1 0.0 -19.2 20054 1628.4 1243.4 347.4 31.8 2.5 8.3 0.0 -17.2 20061 1623.0 1256.2 329.4 31.7 2.5 8.2 0.0 12.6 20062 1648.6 1281.1 329.5 32.0 2.6 8.6 0.0 24.7 20063 1681.3 1305.3 337.8 32.2 2.6 8.6 0.0 20.1 20064 1714.2 1329.5 346.2 32.5 2.6 8.6 0.0 15.7 20071 1747.0 1353.7 354.6 32.7 2.6 8.6 0.0 11.8 20072 1780.1 1378.1 363.0 33.0 2.6 8.6 0.0 8.0 20073 1813.4 1402.6 371.6 33.2 2.6 8.6 0.0 4.5 20074 1847.1 1427.3 380.4 33.5 2.6 8.6 0.0 1.2 20081 1881.2 1452.1 389.4 33.7 2.6 8.6 0.0 -2.0 20082 1915.7 1477.1 398.6 33.9 2.6 8.6 0.0 -5.1 20083 1950.6 1502.3 408.1 34.2 2.6 8.6 0.0 -8.1 20084 1986.0 1527.7 417.8 34.5 2.6 8.6 0.0 -11.0 20091 2021.7 1553.3 427.7 34.7 2.6 8.6 0.0 -13.8 20092 2058.0 1579.2 437.8 35.0 2.6 8.6 0.0 -16.5 20093 2094.7 1605.3 448.2 35.2 2.6 8.6 0.0 -19.0 20094 2131.8 1631.6 458.7 35.5 2.6 8.6 0.0 -21.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20011 101.5 101.5 99.2 101.3 102.1 20012 102.3 102.2 98.4 102.1 103.0 20013 102.7 102.3 97.7 101.9 103.5 20014 103.2 102.4 97.3 100.9 104.4 20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.8 104.2 108.1 20032 106.1 105.1 92.8 103.4 109.0 20033 106.6 105.7 91.9 104.4 109.8 20034 107.2 106.1 91.1 104.6 110.6 20041 108.2 107.0 91.0 106.0 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.1 107.6 112.4 20043 109.7 108.5 90.6 107.9 113.3 20044 110.6 109.3 90.6 109.0 114.1 20051 111.5 109.9 90.7 109.3 115.0 20052 112.2 110.7 90.6 110.6 115.9 20053 113.1 111.7 89.9 113.0 116.9 20054 114.0 112.7 89.6 113.2 118.3 20061 115.0 113.1 89.4 113.5 119.2 20062 115.9 114.3 89.2 115.7 120.1 20063 117.2 115.4 90.1 116.9 121.3 20064 118.4 116.6 91.0 118.1 122.5 20071 119.7 117.7 91.9 119.2 123.7 20072 120.9 118.8 92.7 120.3 124.8 20073 122.1 119.8 93.6 121.4 126.0 20074 123.4 120.9 94.4 122.5 127.1 20081 124.6 122.0 95.3 123.6 128.2 20082 125.7 123.1 96.1 124.7 129.4 20083 126.9 124.1 96.9 125.7 130.5 20084 128.1 125.1 97.7 126.8 131.6 20091 129.3 126.2 98.5 127.8 132.7 20092 130.4 127.2 99.4 128.9 133.7 20093 131.6 128.2 100.2 129.9 134.8 20094 132.7 129.3 101.0 131.0 135.9
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20011 100.4 99.6 102.6 100.3 99.9 101.9 20012 100.9 99.7 103.9 100.0 98.4 102.4 20013 101.4 99.8 105.6 99.5 97.0 102.8 20014 101.5 99.6 106.4 98.6 94.5 103.1 20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.1 20032 103.2 99.3 111.5 101.2 99.1 109.5 20033 103.6 99.5 112.2 101.4 99.7 110.1 20034 104.6 99.8 114.3 102.2 99.8 110.7 20041 105.7 100.1 117.2 103.7 102.1 112.6 20042 107.0 100.6 119.7 104.9 103.9 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.4 105.3 115.3 20044 108.7 101.6 123.6 106.5 107.1 117.0 20051 109.6 102.5 124.2 107.7 107.8 119.0 20052 110.5 103.0 125.4 108.6 110.2 120.3 20053 111.6 103.6 127.5 109.3 112.9 122.0 20054 112.8 104.5 129.5 110.1 114.1 123.4 20061 113.7 105.5 130.7 110.7 113.9 124.8 20062 114.3 106.2 131.4 112.3 116.5 126.2 20063 115.3 107.3 132.7 113.6 117.2 127.8 20064 116.3 108.3 134.0 114.8 117.9 129.4 20071 117.3 109.4 135.3 116.0 118.6 131.0 20072 118.3 110.4 136.6 117.2 119.4 132.6 20073 119.3 111.4 137.8 118.4 120.1 134.2 20074 120.3 112.4 139.1 119.6 120.9 135.8 20081 121.3 113.4 140.3 120.7 121.6 137.4 20082 122.3 114.4 141.5 121.9 122.4 138.9 20083 123.2 115.4 142.7 123.0 123.1 140.5 20084 124.2 116.4 143.9 124.1 123.9 142.1 20091 125.2 117.3 145.1 125.2 124.6 143.7 20092 126.2 118.3 146.3 126.3 125.4 145.3 20093 127.2 119.3 147.5 127.4 126.2 146.8 20094 128.2 120.2 148.7 128.5 127.0 148.4
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment