US Forecast: April 27, 2007
Forecast Period

2007:2--2010:4 (15 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 27, 2007.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2007:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: April 27, 2007, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Finally, beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2007:1.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:1-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.5       
COG           3.0                  3.5       
JG            1.0                 -0.9       
TRGS          5.0                  6.2       
TRSH          5.0                  6.7       
COS           3.0                  4.3       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  5.6
PIM           1.5                  0.9

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, and 2.8 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate rises slightly to 4.8 percent by the beginning of 2009. stays roughly unchanged throughout the forecast period. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.7, 1.7, 1.6, and 1.5 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 4.2, 4.0, 3.9, and 3.8 percent, respectively. These predicted values are probably higher than most others are predicting. The model had been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters prior to 2007:1, but the actual inflation rate was 4.0 percent in 2007:1, which is close to the model's prediction last forecast of 4.4 percent. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise slightly to 5.3 percent by the beginning of 2008.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to be around $130 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) By the end of 2010 it is predicted to be $115 billion.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $745 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards. It falls to $653 billion by the end of 2010, which is still a very large deficit.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed do something different than equation 30 is predicting, which is a small increase in the bill rate?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or a depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. (If you increase PIM, inflation will be even higher than is currently forecast.)

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1490. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1290, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: April 27, 2007
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10126.0 1.2 4143.3 1.5 2072.5 3.8 971.4 0.4 20032 10212.7 3.5 4161.3 1.7 2084.1 2.3 1009.8 16.8 20033 10398.7 7.5 4190.7 2.9 2123.0 7.7 1049.6 16.7 20034 10467.0 2.7 4220.2 2.8 2132.4 1.8 1051.4 0.7 20041 10566.3 3.8 4268.2 4.6 2155.3 4.4 1067.0 6.1 20042 10671.5 4.0 4308.5 3.8 2164.3 1.7 1071.4 1.7 20043 10753.3 3.1 4341.5 3.1 2184.0 3.7 1093.9 8.7 20044 10822.9 2.6 4377.4 3.3 2213.1 5.4 1110.3 6.1 20051 10913.8 3.4 4395.4 1.7 2241.5 5.2 1116.8 2.4 20052 11001.8 3.3 4420.0 2.3 2268.4 4.9 1150.8 12.7 20053 11115.1 4.2 4454.5 3.2 2287.6 3.4 1175.9 9.0 20054 11163.8 1.8 4476.7 2.0 2309.5 3.9 1137.9 -12.3 20061 11316.4 5.6 4494.5 1.6 2342.7 5.9 1190.5 19.8 20062 11388.1 2.6 4535.5 3.7 2351.1 1.4 1190.2 -0.1 20063 11443.5 2.0 4566.7 2.8 2360.1 1.5 1208.8 6.4 20064 11513.1 2.5 4605.2 3.4 2394.0 5.9 1221.9 4.4 20071 11549.1 1.3 4646.8 3.7 2411.2 2.9 1243.5 7.3 20072 11640.2 3.2 4675.7 2.5 2430.6 3.3 1260.5 5.6 20073 11726.2 3.0 4705.0 2.5 2447.7 2.8 1274.2 4.4 20074 11811.6 2.9 4734.6 2.5 2462.5 2.4 1285.6 3.6 20081 11894.7 2.8 4764.7 2.6 2475.6 2.1 1295.4 3.1 20082 11975.9 2.8 4795.3 2.6 2487.6 2.0 1304.4 2.8 20083 12056.7 2.7 4826.4 2.6 2498.9 1.8 1312.9 2.6 20084 12137.4 2.7 4858.1 2.7 2509.9 1.8 1321.3 2.6 20091 12218.9 2.7 4890.5 2.7 2520.8 1.7 1329.8 2.6 20092 12302.0 2.7 4923.5 2.7 2531.8 1.8 1338.7 2.7 20093 12386.9 2.8 4957.2 2.8 2543.0 1.8 1348.0 2.8 20094 12473.8 2.8 4991.6 2.8 2554.6 1.8 1357.8 3.0 20101 12562.7 2.9 5026.8 2.8 2566.5 1.9 1368.2 3.1 20102 12653.5 2.9 5062.6 2.9 2578.9 1.9 1379.3 3.3 20103 12746.1 3.0 5099.2 2.9 2591.6 2.0 1390.9 3.4 20104 12840.4 3.0 5136.4 3.0 2604.8 2.0 1403.0 3.5
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20021 386.8 12.6 908.6 -14.6 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 859.9 -19.8 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 876.5 8.0 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 865.2 -5.1 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 414.7 5.4 881.2 7.6 24.3 1510.5 -5.1 20032 426.0 11.4 894.2 6.1 -2.7 1525.9 4.1 20033 453.1 27.9 902.0 3.5 10.5 1540.0 3.7 20034 460.1 6.3 888.9 -5.7 25.0 1603.6 17.6 20041 450.4 -8.2 896.2 3.3 35.9 1643.2 10.2 20042 485.7 35.3 927.7 14.8 74.7 1705.2 16.0 20043 484.5 -1.0 923.9 -1.7 50.8 1723.7 4.4 20044 483.0 -1.3 946.1 10.0 52.0 1773.1 12.0 20051 498.7 13.7 965.6 8.5 55.2 1790.9 4.1 20052 529.7 27.2 983.0 7.4 -7.4 1797.1 1.4 20053 531.1 1.1 1005.1 9.3 -12.7 1808.1 2.5 20054 535.0 3.0 1019.3 5.8 43.5 1865.0 13.2 20061 526.6 -6.2 1052.5 13.7 41.2 1905.9 9.1 20062 511.1 -11.2 1074.3 8.5 53.7 1912.7 1.4 20063 467.3 -30.1 1105.1 12.0 55.4 1938.8 5.6 20064 441.4 -20.4 1100.5 -1.7 22.4 1926.1 -2.6 20071 421.2 -17.0 1105.9 2.0 14.8 1937.0 2.3 20072 420.4 -0.7 1116.2 3.8 23.0 1966.5 6.2 20073 420.1 -0.4 1126.6 3.8 30.5 1995.9 6.1 20074 421.7 1.6 1137.6 4.0 38.2 2025.1 6.0 20081 423.9 2.1 1150.6 4.7 42.5 2053.8 5.8 20082 426.6 2.6 1165.2 5.2 43.7 2082.5 5.7 20083 429.6 2.9 1179.1 4.9 44.3 2110.6 5.5 20084 433.0 3.2 1192.2 4.5 44.2 2138.3 5.4 20091 436.7 3.5 1204.5 4.2 43.9 2165.9 5.3 20092 440.7 3.8 1216.3 4.0 43.7 2193.8 5.2 20093 445.2 4.1 1227.9 3.9 43.8 2222.1 5.3 20094 449.9 4.4 1239.3 3.8 44.1 2251.2 5.3 20101 455.0 4.6 1250.7 3.7 44.6 2281.2 5.4 20102 460.4 4.8 1262.1 3.7 45.3 2312.1 5.5 20103 466.0 5.0 1273.6 3.7 46.0 2344.0 5.6 20104 471.9 5.1 1285.2 3.7 46.7 2376.9 5.7
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20021 1.5 0.6 4.9 4.2 20022 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.3 20023 1.5 0.9 2.2 1.3 20024 2.2 1.9 -0.2 -2.1 20031 3.2 2.1 4.1 1.9 20032 1.3 0.3 9.2 8.9 20033 2.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 20034 2.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 20041 3.8 2.9 4.9 1.9 20042 3.7 3.4 6.2 2.7 20043 2.1 2.7 3.4 0.7 20044 3.2 3.0 6.7 3.5 20051 3.4 3.1 2.0 -1.1 20052 2.5 2.5 1.6 -0.8 20053 3.3 3.7 6.0 2.3 20054 3.3 3.7 4.5 0.8 20061 3.3 2.8 10.0 7.0 20062 3.3 3.5 -0.7 -4.1 20063 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.1 20064 1.6 1.2 5.4 4.1 20071 4.0 3.1 6.9 3.7 20072 4.2 4.3 5.9 1.6 20073 4.0 4.1 5.8 1.6 20074 3.9 3.9 5.7 1.7 20081 3.8 3.8 5.6 1.7 20082 3.7 3.7 5.5 1.7 20083 3.6 3.5 5.4 1.8 20084 3.5 3.4 5.3 1.8 20091 3.4 3.3 5.2 1.8 20092 3.3 3.2 5.1 1.9 20093 3.2 3.1 5.1 1.9 20094 3.1 3.0 5.0 1.9 20101 3.1 3.0 5.0 1.9 20102 3.0 2.9 4.9 1.9 20103 3.0 2.9 4.9 1.9 20104 2.9 2.9 4.9 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1268.5 -10.0 66.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1274.3 1.8 66.6 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1299.5 8.1 68.1 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1312.6 4.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1339.5 8.4 73.8 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1371.6 9.9 72.9 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1368.7 -0.9 75.3 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1392.4 7.1 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1422.1 8.8 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1436.4 4.1 77.8 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1459.0 6.4 71.5 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1485.3 7.4 65.6 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1491.0 1.5 74.3 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1493.9 0.8 72.7 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1479.5 -3.8 66.7 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1482.9 0.9 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1514.8 8.9 66.9 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1504.8 -2.6 66.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1473.4 -8.1 60.9 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1474.6 0.3 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1475.3 0.2 70.4 20072 5.1 5.5 6.5 1492.7 4.8 70.4 20073 5.2 5.7 6.7 1510.7 4.9 71.5 20074 5.2 5.9 6.9 1529.2 5.0 72.6 20081 5.3 6.0 7.1 1548.0 5.0 73.7 20082 5.3 6.2 7.3 1567.1 5.0 74.9 20083 5.3 6.3 7.4 1586.5 5.0 76.1 20084 5.4 6.4 7.6 1606.1 5.0 77.4 20091 5.3 6.5 7.7 1625.9 5.0 78.6 20092 5.3 6.6 7.8 1645.9 5.0 79.8 20093 5.3 6.7 7.8 1666.0 5.0 81.0 20094 5.3 6.8 7.9 1686.4 5.0 82.1 20101 5.3 6.9 7.9 1706.9 4.9 83.3 20102 5.3 6.9 8.0 1727.5 4.9 84.4 20103 5.3 7.0 8.0 1748.3 4.9 85.5 20104 5.3 7.0 8.1 1769.3 4.9 86.6
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20021 5.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.2 -0.5 4.9 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.2 -1.2 4.6 -0.6 1.4 8.3 20024 5.8 -1.1 0.2 1.3 1.0 -0.5 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.6 1.7 1.1 -0.8 0.6 8.5 20032 6.1 1.9 0.6 2.7 -1.2 0.6 9.0 20033 6.1 0.6 -1.7 -0.4 1.2 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 0.9 -0.7 2.7 1.2 2.1 8.5 20041 5.7 -1.1 -0.1 5.0 1.0 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.0 1.2 8.2 20043 5.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 2.1 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 1.4 1.4 8.0 20051 5.2 0.7 0.2 -0.1 1.8 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 1.0 1.1 5.6 2.4 3.1 7.6 20053 5.0 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.3 7.5 20054 4.9 -0.3 0.4 2.5 1.3 0.9 7.4 20061 4.7 1.7 0.6 1.4 3.1 2.3 7.0 20062 4.6 0.3 0.6 4.8 1.7 2.0 7.0 20063 4.7 0.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.5 7.1 20064 4.4 2.2 -0.2 3.7 1.4 2.8 6.8 20071 4.5 1.8 -0.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 6.9 20072 4.5 0.3 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.9 6.9 20073 4.6 0.3 0.7 2.3 1.7 1.0 7.0 20074 4.6 0.3 0.7 2.3 1.6 1.0 7.1 20081 4.6 0.3 0.7 2.3 1.5 1.0 7.1 20082 4.6 0.4 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.0 7.2 20083 4.7 0.4 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.0 7.3 20084 4.7 0.4 0.8 2.3 1.3 1.0 7.4 20091 4.8 0.4 0.8 2.3 1.2 1.0 7.5 20092 4.8 0.4 0.9 2.3 1.2 1.0 7.5 20093 4.8 0.4 0.9 2.3 1.2 1.0 7.6 20094 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.3 1.2 1.0 7.7 20101 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.1 7.7 20102 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.1 7.8 20103 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.1 7.8 20104 4.9 0.4 0.9 2.2 1.3 1.2 7.8
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20021 -17.3 415.7 8.8 3.0 3.9 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6730.3 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.7 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -8056.0 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.3 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3725.5 576.5 61.4 1.8 -1.1 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1317.0 558.0 -12.2 1.9 2.6 530.8 -290.3 -61.3 20032 6316.1 543.9 -9.8 2.2 5.1 512.7 -365.5 -27.1 20033 1782.9 591.9 40.3 2.4 7.3 509.9 -451.3 -8.2 20034 7426.2 669.6 63.7 2.3 0.3 495.6 -381.5 15.1 20041 1288.1 737.4 47.1 2.2 2.0 563.7 -401.0 -14.6 20042 949.7 790.9 32.3 2.0 5.6 649.8 -380.8 -13.6 20043 -726.5 837.2 25.6 1.7 3.5 651.2 -380.5 -22.3 20044 6565.7 835.3 -0.9 2.4 -1.7 731.5 -365.7 -1.1 20051 -670.2 1058.3 157.6 0.6 2.0 751.3 -287.4 11.0 20052 1606.9 1116.7 24.0 -0.4 3.4 751.3 -289.7 12.4 20053 3035.5 1158.4 15.8 -1.5 8.4 715.0 -395.9 -19.2 20054 3172.4 1185.0 9.5 -0.3 -3.0 868.1 -263.6 -17.2 20061 3785.4 1276.5 34.6 -0.3 -0.4 816.1 -146.8 12.6 20062 -531.3 1303.4 8.7 -1.4 -0.3 842.5 -162.9 26.0 20063 2699.6 1353.7 16.4 -1.4 0.9 867.1 -173.1 -10.2 20064 5061.8 1314.9 -11.0 -1.3 -0.1 723.0 -131.4 -18.6 20071 0.0 1388.5 24.3 -1.1 0.3 753.9 -142.1 -31.0 20072 923.2 1381.1 -2.1 -1.1 1.9 751.4 -142.6 -33.4 20073 1195.6 1412.7 9.5 -1.2 1.7 748.4 -137.1 -35.2 20074 1217.7 1444.0 9.1 -1.1 1.7 744.7 -132.3 -37.4 20081 1249.6 1473.2 8.4 -1.1 1.7 740.0 -128.7 -40.0 20082 1289.2 1501.2 7.8 -1.0 1.7 734.7 -126.2 -42.9 20083 1334.6 1528.9 7.6 -0.9 1.8 728.2 -124.5 -46.0 20084 1381.1 1556.3 7.4 -0.8 1.8 720.7 -123.5 -49.2 20091 1431.2 1584.0 7.3 -0.7 1.9 712.4 -122.9 -52.3 20092 1482.1 1612.2 7.3 -0.6 1.9 703.7 -122.5 -55.3 20093 1530.7 1641.1 7.4 -0.5 2.0 694.8 -122.0 -58.1 20094 1577.1 1670.7 7.4 -0.4 2.0 686.1 -121.4 -60.5 20101 1621.1 1700.9 7.4 -0.3 2.0 677.6 -120.4 -62.8 20102 1662.8 1731.6 7.4 -0.2 2.0 669.3 -118.9 -64.7 20103 1702.4 1762.9 7.4 -0.1 2.0 661.2 -117.0 -66.3 20104 1740.4 1794.6 7.4 -0.1 2.0 653.4 -114.6 -67.6
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.6 -7.4 -5.4 935.2 7.3 11.4 20032 37.9 -2.1 -1.7 950.7 6.8 -3.9 20033 0.6 6.2 11.3 958.9 3.5 2.6 20034 6.1 -2.5 20.8 967.2 3.5 0.4 20041 12.2 1.0 7.3 988.9 9.3 9.6 20042 5.2 4.6 6.2 996.9 3.3 7.2 20043 8.0 -3.7 4.8 1006.4 3.9 5.5 20044 -11.5 -3.0 10.0 1019.3 5.2 6.7 20051 5.8 0.8 4.7 1049.6 12.4 2.7 20052 1.7 2.8 9.4 1059.7 3.9 9.3 20053 18.9 -3.0 3.2 1070.7 4.2 10.2 20054 -9.4 1.7 9.6 1079.2 3.2 4.3 20061 20.2 6.9 14.0 1130.8 20.5 -0.7 20062 -7.9 9.4 6.2 1147.9 6.2 9.8 20063 -0.3 1.5 6.8 1156.5 3.0 5.4 20064 8.5 3.4 10.6 1172.9 5.8 -8.7 20071 -4.7 6.1 -1.2 1199.2 9.3 1.3 20072 3.0 3.0 8.0 1222.5 8.0 1.5 20073 3.0 3.0 8.0 1246.2 8.0 1.5 20074 3.0 3.0 8.0 1270.5 8.0 1.5 20081 3.0 3.0 8.0 1295.1 8.0 1.5 20082 3.0 3.0 8.0 1320.3 8.0 1.5 20083 3.0 3.0 8.0 1345.9 8.0 1.5 20084 3.0 3.0 8.0 1372.1 8.0 1.5 20091 3.0 3.0 8.0 1398.7 8.0 1.5 20092 3.0 3.0 8.0 1425.9 8.0 1.5 20093 3.0 3.0 8.0 1453.6 8.0 1.5 20094 3.0 3.0 8.0 1481.9 8.0 1.5 20101 3.0 3.0 8.0 1510.6 8.0 1.5 20102 3.0 3.0 8.0 1540.0 8.0 1.5 20103 3.0 3.0 8.0 1569.9 8.0 1.5 20104 3.0 3.0 8.0 1600.4 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1908.6 776.0 229.4 100.6 787.8 20042 1949.2 791.4 246.5 100.5 795.8 20043 1977.5 810.8 242.8 101.4 807.1 20044 2022.4 827.5 259.3 102.3 817.9 20051 2177.5 891.2 327.6 104.6 838.3 20052 2205.6 910.9 321.4 110.3 846.1 20053 2147.5 941.0 309.5 109.5 863.2 20054 2314.1 968.4 347.1 108.5 873.8 20061 2452.3 1039.2 374.3 109.4 911.9 20062 2483.0 1049.9 389.4 111.9 914.1 20063 2515.6 1064.7 401.8 110.6 920.5 20064 2531.8 1086.2 388.5 107.2 932.4 20071 2614.0 1126.9 401.7 107.0 961.1 20072 2660.2 1155.3 400.4 108.8 978.4 20073 2712.9 1183.5 406.1 110.5 995.4 20074 2765.2 1211.7 411.7 112.2 1012.4 20081 2816.9 1239.8 416.9 113.8 1029.1 20082 2867.9 1267.8 422.0 115.4 1045.5 20083 2918.6 1295.7 426.9 116.9 1061.7 20084 2969.2 1323.7 431.9 118.5 1077.9 20091 3020.1 1352.0 436.8 120.0 1094.0 20092 3071.5 1380.6 441.9 121.6 1110.1 20093 3123.6 1409.7 447.1 123.1 1126.4 20094 3176.7 1439.4 452.4 124.7 1142.9 20101 3230.7 1469.7 457.8 126.4 1159.6 20102 3285.9 1500.7 463.4 128.0 1176.6 20103 3342.2 1532.4 469.0 129.7 1193.8 20104 3399.7 1564.9 474.7 131.4 1211.4
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2309.6 712.2 988.9 26.9 339.5 200.3 43.3 -401.0 20042 2330.0 722.6 996.9 16.4 349.8 200.1 42.7 -380.8 20043 2358.0 734.8 1006.4 16.8 345.7 209.1 45.2 -380.5 20044 2388.1 728.3 1019.3 16.7 361.2 211.8 50.8 -365.7 20051 2464.9 758.0 1049.6 31.1 355.9 214.7 55.6 -287.4 20052 2495.3 760.8 1059.7 19.4 359.8 235.9 59.7 -289.7 20053 2543.4 784.3 1070.7 23.3 361.9 239.5 63.7 -395.9 20054 2577.7 771.1 1079.2 30.7 366.8 261.8 68.1 -263.6 20061 2599.1 803.6 1130.8 14.8 351.3 242.5 56.1 -146.8 20062 2645.9 802.3 1147.9 15.6 357.0 270.1 53.0 -162.9 20063 2688.7 809.1 1156.5 15.8 365.6 288.8 52.9 -173.1 20064 2663.2 817.1 1172.9 6.6 358.2 256.2 52.2 -131.4 20071 2756.1 826.9 1199.2 21.7 370.5 284.5 53.3 -142.1 20072 2802.7 840.7 1222.5 21.7 375.0 289.5 53.3 -142.6 20073 2850.0 854.5 1246.2 21.7 379.6 294.6 53.3 -137.1 20074 2897.5 868.1 1270.5 21.7 384.3 299.6 53.3 -132.3 20081 2945.6 881.7 1295.1 21.7 389.0 304.7 53.3 -128.7 20082 2994.1 895.3 1320.3 21.7 393.8 309.7 53.3 -126.2 20083 3043.1 908.8 1345.9 21.7 398.6 314.7 53.3 -124.5 20084 3092.7 922.2 1372.1 21.7 403.5 319.9 53.3 -123.5 20091 3143.0 935.7 1398.7 21.7 408.5 325.1 53.3 -122.9 20092 3194.0 949.1 1425.9 21.7 413.5 330.5 53.3 -122.5 20093 3245.7 962.6 1453.6 21.7 418.6 335.9 53.3 -122.0 20094 3298.0 976.1 1481.9 21.7 423.7 341.3 53.3 -121.4 20101 3351.1 989.7 1510.6 21.7 428.9 346.8 53.3 -120.4 20102 3404.8 1003.4 1540.0 21.7 434.2 352.3 53.3 -118.9 20103 3459.2 1017.1 1569.9 21.7 439.5 357.7 53.3 -117.0 20104 3514.3 1031.0 1600.4 21.7 444.9 363.0 53.3 -114.6
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.7 240.1 40.4 760.3 23.1 339.5 20042 1468.1 242.0 43.7 772.7 24.0 349.8 20043 1475.8 250.8 42.7 780.9 24.7 345.7 20044 1527.5 260.7 45.6 798.4 25.2 361.2 20051 1555.7 266.7 58.7 813.0 25.3 355.9 20052 1586.3 280.9 57.1 826.9 25.3 359.8 20053 1594.8 274.0 54.7 837.5 25.3 361.9 20054 1611.2 279.3 61.3 845.5 25.2 366.8 20061 1635.6 293.4 66.4 861.5 24.8 351.3 20062 1674.3 311.1 68.8 873.6 24.7 357.0 20063 1676.7 297.8 70.9 877.8 24.7 365.6 20064 1678.1 300.2 68.5 885.8 24.8 358.2 20071 1719.9 317.4 70.8 894.7 25.1 370.5 20072 1746.7 324.7 70.6 909.7 25.3 375.0 20073 1774.1 331.9 71.6 924.0 25.5 379.6 20074 1801.0 339.1 72.6 937.9 25.7 384.3 20081 1827.4 346.3 73.5 951.3 25.9 389.0 20082 1853.6 353.4 74.4 964.6 26.0 393.8 20083 1879.7 360.5 75.3 977.6 26.2 398.6 20084 1905.8 367.7 76.1 990.6 26.4 403.5 20091 1931.9 374.8 77.0 1003.6 26.6 408.5 20092 1958.3 382.1 77.9 1016.6 26.8 413.5 20093 1985.0 389.5 78.8 1029.7 27.0 418.6 20094 2012.1 397.0 79.8 1043.0 27.2 423.7 20101 2039.6 404.6 80.7 1056.5 27.4 428.9 20102 2067.5 412.4 81.7 1070.2 27.6 434.2 20103 2096.0 420.4 82.7 1084.2 27.8 439.5 20104 2125.0 428.6 83.7 1098.4 28.0 444.9
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 15.1 20041 1453.3 1103.9 320.1 28.7 2.1 2.7 -14.6 20042 1481.7 1120.9 329.9 29.4 2.2 3.7 -13.6 20043 1498.1 1136.6 329.2 30.0 2.4 4.7 -22.3 20044 1528.6 1160.0 335.5 30.5 3.0 5.6 -1.1 20051 1544.7 1174.6 336.7 29.9 2.3 5.8 11.0 20052 1573.9 1192.8 346.1 30.3 2.5 7.2 12.4 20053 1614.0 1217.8 345.7 30.9 2.5 22.1 -19.2 20054 1628.4 1243.4 347.4 31.8 2.5 8.3 -17.2 20061 1623.0 1256.2 329.4 31.7 2.5 8.2 12.6 20062 1648.3 1280.7 329.5 32.1 2.6 8.6 26.0 20063 1686.9 1300.0 347.7 32.7 2.6 9.1 -10.2 20064 1696.7 1316.5 341.0 32.0 2.6 9.8 -18.6 20071 1750.9 1341.6 369.3 32.3 2.6 10.3 -31.0 20072 1780.1 1365.7 374.2 32.5 2.6 10.3 -33.4 20073 1809.3 1389.7 379.2 32.8 2.6 10.3 -35.2 20074 1838.4 1413.5 384.1 33.0 2.6 10.3 -37.4 20081 1867.5 1437.3 389.2 33.3 2.6 10.3 -40.0 20082 1896.6 1461.0 394.3 33.5 2.6 10.3 -42.9 20083 1925.7 1484.7 399.6 33.8 2.6 10.3 -46.0 20084 1955.0 1508.3 405.0 34.0 2.6 10.3 -49.2 20091 1984.3 1531.9 410.4 34.3 2.6 10.3 -52.3 20092 2013.6 1555.5 415.9 34.5 2.6 10.3 -55.3 20093 2043.1 1579.2 421.4 34.8 2.6 10.3 -58.1 20094 2072.6 1603.0 426.9 35.0 2.6 10.3 -60.5 20101 2102.3 1626.9 432.4 35.3 2.6 10.3 -62.8 20102 2132.2 1651.0 437.9 35.6 2.6 10.3 -64.7 20103 2162.3 1675.3 443.4 35.8 2.6 10.3 -66.3 20104 2192.6 1699.9 448.9 36.1 2.6 10.3 -67.6
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20021 -78.7 -64.7 102.2 421.0 -209.3 -170.4 20022 -100.5 -17.0 70.2 459.5 -245.4 -166.9 20023 -172.7 33.2 89.6 463.5 -249.6 -163.9 20024 -210.6 83.9 94.5 489.3 -287.7 -169.3 20031 -205.0 31.3 126.5 530.8 -289.2 -194.3 20032 -191.8 68.7 138.1 512.7 -368.9 -158.7 20033 -203.9 164.9 132.8 509.9 -456.7 -147.0 20034 -222.4 126.2 114.7 495.6 -394.7 -119.4 20041 -223.2 107.3 107.3 563.7 -409.2 -145.8 20042 -287.3 71.6 104.6 649.8 -389.0 -149.8 20043 -270.4 141.8 26.2 651.2 -392.7 -156.1 20044 -252.3 -48.6 82.3 731.5 -379.7 -133.2 20051 -424.7 -5.6 104.8 751.3 -302.7 -123.0 20052 -552.5 168.1 62.9 751.3 -302.4 -127.4 20053 -477.1 331.0 -19.5 715.0 -407.3 -142.1 20054 -556.5 99.6 28.9 868.1 -283.3 -156.9 20061 -565.1 -27.1 78.4 816.1 -169.9 -132.4 20062 -654.0 4.7 113.4 842.5 -178.4 -128.3 20063 -601.1 -3.5 87.2 867.1 -187.0 -162.6 20064 -548.6 35.5 113.6 723.0 -151.1 -172.5 20071 -506.9 -8.7 112.7 753.9 -158.6 -192.5 20072 -516.8 4.0 116.9 751.4 -159.0 -196.5 20073 -521.6 5.6 121.0 748.4 -153.4 -199.9 20074 -524.5 7.1 124.9 744.7 -148.5 -203.7 20081 -524.9 9.0 128.6 740.0 -144.8 -207.9 20082 -524.1 11.9 132.2 734.7 -142.2 -212.5 20083 -522.4 16.2 135.6 728.2 -140.4 -217.2 20084 -520.3 22.0 138.9 720.7 -139.2 -222.0 20091 -518.1 28.9 142.1 712.4 -138.5 -226.8 20092 -515.9 36.5 145.2 703.7 -138.0 -231.5 20093 -514.1 44.5 148.1 694.8 -137.4 -235.9 20094 -512.9 52.4 151.0 686.1 -136.6 -240.1 20101 -512.3 60.3 153.8 677.6 -135.4 -244.0 20102 -512.4 68.0 156.6 669.3 -133.8 -247.7 20103 -513.2 75.5 159.3 661.2 -131.7 -251.1 20104 -514.9 82.8 162.0 653.4 -129.1 -254.2 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10705.5 7548.2 911.5 2159.0 4477.7 20032 10831.8 7628.3 937.3 2155.4 4535.6 20033 11086.0 7782.6 964.4 2216.8 4601.4 20034 11219.5 7855.3 957.4 2229.5 4668.4 20041 11431.0 8018.0 971.5 2284.7 4761.8 20042 11649.3 8148.2 976.2 2327.8 4844.2 20043 11799.5 8265.0 990.9 2355.5 4918.6 20044 11970.3 8414.8 1006.4 2412.7 4995.7 20051 12173.2 8519.7 1013.1 2450.2 5056.4 20052 12346.2 8674.6 1042.3 2508.6 5123.7 20053 12573.5 8847.3 1057.3 2584.9 5205.1 20054 12730.4 8927.8 1019.6 2613.5 5294.7 20061 13008.4 9079.1 1064.1 2658.2 5356.8 20062 13197.5 9228.1 1061.8 2721.4 5444.9 20063 13322.5 9346.7 1075.5 2747.7 5523.5 20064 13458.1 9421.7 1079.8 2732.1 5609.8 20071 13632.7 9589.8 1093.8 2785.9 5710.1 20072 13881.2 9750.4 1118.8 2833.8 5797.8 20073 14122.8 9904.2 1140.8 2878.6 5884.8 20074 14363.0 10052.5 1160.7 2920.3 5971.6 20081 14599.5 10196.9 1179.1 2959.6 6058.2 20082 14832.8 10338.5 1196.5 2997.2 6144.8 20083 15064.4 10478.5 1213.4 3033.6 6231.4 20084 15295.0 10617.6 1230.1 3069.2 6318.2 20091 15525.7 10756.6 1246.8 3104.4 6405.4 20092 15757.6 10896.3 1263.8 3139.5 6493.1 20093 15991.4 11037.2 1281.1 3174.6 6581.5 20094 16227.8 11179.8 1298.9 3210.0 6670.9 20101 16467.2 11324.4 1317.4 3245.8 6761.2 20102 16709.7 11471.4 1336.4 3282.2 6852.8 20103 16955.7 11620.8 1356.1 3319.1 6945.6 20104 17205.4 11773.0 1376.5 3356.7 7039.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1606.3 1583.3 1044.0 539.3 23.0 20032 1617.1 1620.6 1067.4 553.2 -3.5 20033 1690.5 1678.7 1093.3 585.4 11.8 20034 1742.3 1716.4 1104.8 611.6 25.9 20041 1781.9 1743.9 1112.1 631.8 38.0 20042 1892.1 1812.8 1137.6 675.2 79.3 20043 1917.7 1862.9 1170.0 692.9 54.8 20044 1960.2 1902.9 1201.5 701.4 57.3 20051 2013.5 1954.1 1230.0 724.1 59.4 20052 2009.1 2016.7 1251.8 764.9 -7.6 20053 2052.6 2067.9 1276.7 791.2 -15.3 20054 2154.4 2105.8 1304.3 801.5 48.6 20061 2214.9 2167.7 1359.2 808.5 47.2 20062 2237.2 2174.9 1384.3 790.6 62.3 20063 2235.5 2171.3 1420.8 750.5 64.2 20064 2162.5 2137.6 1420.5 717.1 24.9 20071 2136.7 2121.0 1433.8 687.2 15.7 20072 2177.7 2153.1 1459.8 693.3 24.6 20073 2218.4 2185.5 1485.8 699.7 33.0 20074 2262.5 2221.0 1512.2 708.7 41.5 20081 2306.0 2259.3 1540.9 718.4 46.6 20082 2348.3 2300.0 1571.2 728.8 48.4 20083 2389.6 2340.3 1600.8 739.5 49.3 20084 2429.6 2380.0 1629.3 750.6 49.6 20091 2468.9 2419.2 1657.0 762.2 49.6 20092 2508.3 2458.5 1684.1 774.3 49.8 20093 2548.1 2497.9 1711.0 786.9 50.2 20094 2588.7 2537.8 1737.7 800.1 50.9 20101 2630.0 2578.2 1764.4 813.7 51.8 20102 2672.2 2619.3 1791.4 827.9 52.9 20103 2715.1 2661.0 1818.5 842.5 54.1 20104 2758.8 2703.5 1845.9 857.6 55.3
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -499.3 1012.4 1511.7 2050.3 725.9 1324.4 20032 -501.3 1010.8 1512.1 2087.7 762.2 1325.5 20033 -495.2 1040.7 1535.9 2108.1 764.8 1343.3 20034 -501.8 1099.1 1600.9 2123.7 772.8 1350.9 20041 -543.4 1135.1 1678.5 2174.5 808.2 1366.3 20042 -606.2 1166.3 1772.5 2215.2 823.8 1391.4 20043 -630.6 1185.3 1815.9 2247.4 838.4 1409.0 20044 -672.7 1225.8 1898.5 2268.0 833.2 1434.8 20051 -676.2 1254.0 1930.2 2316.2 862.9 1453.3 20052 -686.4 1293.8 1980.2 2348.9 868.4 1480.5 20053 -728.8 1312.4 2041.2 2402.4 895.8 1506.6 20054 -775.4 1352.4 2127.8 2423.6 886.2 1537.4 20061 -765.2 1405.4 2170.6 2479.6 921.7 1557.9 20062 -781.7 1448.1 2229.8 2513.9 919.7 1594.2 20063 -801.8 1488.3 2290.1 2542.1 927.2 1614.9 20064 -701.2 1523.0 2224.2 2575.1 937.7 1637.4 20071 -712.2 1531.7 2243.9 2618.4 945.8 1672.6 20072 -708.8 1577.7 2286.5 2661.9 961.1 1700.8 20073 -704.9 1624.4 2329.4 2705.1 976.3 1728.8 20074 -700.4 1671.9 2372.3 2748.3 991.5 1756.9 20081 -694.8 1720.1 2414.9 2791.4 1006.6 1784.8 20082 -688.5 1769.2 2457.7 2834.5 1021.7 1812.8 20083 -681.1 1819.1 2500.2 2877.5 1036.7 1840.8 20084 -672.7 1869.9 2542.5 2920.5 1051.7 1868.8 20091 -663.4 1921.5 2584.9 2963.6 1066.8 1896.8 20092 -653.7 1974.2 2627.9 3006.8 1081.8 1924.9 20093 -643.9 2027.9 2671.8 3050.1 1096.9 1953.1 20094 -634.2 2082.6 2716.9 3093.6 1112.1 1981.5 20101 -624.7 2138.6 2763.3 3137.4 1127.3 2010.1 20102 -615.4 2195.8 2811.2 3181.6 1142.7 2038.9 20103 -606.3 2254.3 2860.6 3226.1 1158.2 2068.0 20104 -597.4 2314.2 2911.7 3271.1 1173.8 2097.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10126.0 7187.2 971.4 2072.5 4143.3 20032 10212.7 7255.2 1009.8 2084.1 4161.3 20033 10398.7 7363.3 1049.6 2123.0 4190.7 20034 10467.0 7404.0 1051.4 2132.4 4220.2 20041 10566.3 7490.5 1067.0 2155.3 4268.2 20042 10671.5 7544.2 1071.4 2164.3 4308.5 20043 10753.3 7619.4 1093.9 2184.0 4341.5 20044 10822.9 7700.8 1110.3 2213.1 4377.4 20051 10913.8 7753.7 1116.8 2241.5 4395.4 20052 11001.8 7839.2 1150.8 2268.4 4420.0 20053 11115.1 7918.0 1175.9 2287.6 4454.5 20054 11163.8 7924.1 1137.9 2309.5 4476.7 20061 11316.4 8027.7 1190.5 2342.7 4494.5 20062 11388.1 8076.8 1190.2 2351.1 4535.5 20063 11443.5 8135.6 1208.8 2360.1 4566.7 20064 11513.1 8221.1 1221.9 2394.0 4605.2 20071 11549.1 8301.5 1243.5 2411.2 4646.8 20072 11640.2 8366.9 1260.5 2430.6 4675.7 20073 11726.2 8426.8 1274.2 2447.7 4705.0 20074 11811.6 8482.6 1285.6 2462.5 4734.6 20081 11894.7 8535.7 1295.4 2475.6 4764.7 20082 11975.9 8587.3 1304.4 2487.6 4795.3 20083 12056.7 8638.3 1312.9 2498.9 4826.4 20084 12137.4 8689.4 1321.3 2509.9 4858.1 20091 12218.9 8741.1 1329.8 2520.8 4890.5 20092 12302.0 8794.0 1338.7 2531.8 4923.5 20093 12386.9 8848.2 1348.0 2543.0 4957.2 20094 12473.8 8904.0 1357.8 2554.6 4991.6 20101 12562.7 8961.5 1368.2 2566.5 5026.8 20102 12653.5 9020.7 1379.3 2578.9 5062.6 20103 12746.1 9081.7 1390.9 2591.6 5099.2 20104 12840.4 9144.2 1403.0 2604.8 5136.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1555.9 1531.6 1047.5 484.1 24.3 20032 1568.0 1570.7 1074.4 496.3 -2.7 20033 1631.0 1620.5 1098.7 521.8 10.5 20034 1666.7 1641.7 1106.5 535.2 25.0 20041 1686.3 1650.4 1111.2 539.2 35.9 20042 1769.5 1694.8 1130.7 564.1 74.7 20043 1778.2 1727.4 1158.8 568.6 50.8 20044 1802.0 1750.0 1182.3 567.7 52.0 20051 1837.6 1782.4 1199.6 582.8 55.2 20052 1817.3 1824.7 1214.8 609.9 -7.4 20053 1840.1 1852.8 1232.4 620.4 -12.7 20054 1910.6 1867.1 1248.2 618.9 43.5 20061 1948.5 1907.3 1288.8 618.5 41.2 20062 1956.9 1903.2 1302.7 600.5 53.7 20063 1959.8 1904.4 1334.2 570.2 55.4 20064 1885.8 1863.4 1323.7 539.7 22.4 20071 1860.1 1845.3 1330.2 515.1 14.8 20072 1880.2 1857.1 1342.1 515.0 23.0 20073 1900.0 1869.5 1354.2 515.3 30.5 20074 1922.6 1884.5 1366.9 517.6 38.2 20081 1944.5 1902.0 1381.6 520.4 42.5 20082 1965.4 1921.7 1397.8 523.8 43.7 20083 1985.3 1941.0 1413.5 527.5 44.3 20084 2004.0 1959.8 1428.2 531.6 44.2 20091 2022.2 1978.3 1442.3 536.0 43.9 20092 2040.4 1996.6 1455.8 540.8 43.7 20093 2058.9 2015.1 1469.2 545.9 43.8 20094 2077.9 2033.8 1482.3 551.4 44.1 20101 2097.4 2052.8 1495.5 557.2 44.6 20102 2117.4 2072.1 1508.7 563.4 45.3 20103 2137.8 2091.8 1522.0 569.7 46.0 20104 2158.5 2111.8 1535.4 576.3 46.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -507.2 1003.3 1510.5 1879.3 20032 -526.9 999.0 1525.9 1907.4 20033 -513.8 1026.2 1540.0 1914.4 20034 -527.8 1075.8 1603.6 1917.9 20041 -548.4 1094.8 1643.2 1931.7 20042 -593.9 1111.3 1705.2 1942.4 20043 -599.4 1124.3 1723.7 1948.6 20044 -621.8 1151.3 1773.1 1939.2 20051 -626.4 1164.5 1790.9 1947.0 20052 -606.1 1191.0 1797.1 1952.4 20053 -607.6 1200.5 1808.1 1968.7 20054 -636.6 1228.4 1865.0 1963.3 20061 -636.6 1269.3 1905.9 1987.0 20062 -624.2 1288.5 1912.7 1991.0 20063 -628.8 1310.0 1938.8 1999.1 20064 -582.6 1343.5 1926.1 2015.9 20071 -597.7 1339.3 1937.0 2020.4 20072 -601.1 1365.3 1966.5 2029.5 20073 -604.0 1391.8 1995.9 2038.6 20074 -606.2 1418.9 2025.1 2047.8 20081 -607.4 1446.4 2053.8 2057.0 20082 -607.9 1474.5 2082.5 2066.3 20083 -607.4 1503.2 2110.6 2075.7 20084 -605.9 1532.4 2138.3 2085.1 20091 -603.8 1562.2 2165.9 2094.6 20092 -601.3 1592.5 2193.8 2104.1 20093 -598.7 1623.4 2222.1 2113.7 20094 -596.2 1655.0 2251.2 2123.3 20101 -594.0 1687.1 2281.2 2133.0 20102 -592.2 1719.9 2312.1 2142.8 20103 -590.7 1753.3 2344.0 2152.6 20104 -589.6 1787.4 2376.9 2162.5
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1908.6 776.0 229.4 100.6 787.8 20042 1949.2 791.4 246.5 100.5 795.8 20043 1977.5 810.8 242.8 101.4 807.1 20044 2022.4 827.5 259.3 102.3 817.9 20051 2177.5 891.2 327.6 104.6 838.3 20052 2205.6 910.9 321.4 110.3 846.1 20053 2147.5 941.0 309.5 109.5 863.2 20054 2314.1 968.4 347.1 108.5 873.8 20061 2452.3 1039.2 374.3 109.4 911.9 20062 2483.0 1049.9 389.4 111.9 914.1 20063 2515.6 1064.7 401.8 110.6 920.5 20064 2531.8 1086.2 388.5 107.2 932.4 20071 2614.0 1126.9 401.7 107.0 961.1 20072 2660.2 1155.3 400.4 108.8 978.4 20073 2712.9 1183.5 406.1 110.5 995.4 20074 2765.2 1211.7 411.7 112.2 1012.4 20081 2816.9 1239.8 416.9 113.8 1029.1 20082 2867.9 1267.8 422.0 115.4 1045.5 20083 2918.6 1295.7 426.9 116.9 1061.7 20084 2969.2 1323.7 431.9 118.5 1077.9 20091 3020.1 1352.0 436.8 120.0 1094.0 20092 3071.5 1380.6 441.9 121.6 1110.1 20093 3123.6 1409.7 447.1 123.1 1126.4 20094 3176.7 1439.4 452.4 124.7 1142.9 20101 3230.7 1469.7 457.8 126.4 1159.6 20102 3285.9 1500.7 463.4 128.0 1176.6 20103 3342.2 1532.4 469.0 129.7 1193.8 20104 3399.7 1564.9 474.7 131.4 1211.4
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 955.6 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 968.2 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 977.3 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 981.1 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2309.6 712.2 1015.8 988.9 26.9 339.5 200.3 43.3 -401.0 20042 2330.0 722.6 1013.3 996.9 16.4 349.8 200.1 42.7 -380.8 20043 2358.0 734.8 1023.2 1006.4 16.8 345.7 209.1 45.2 -380.5 20044 2388.1 728.3 1036.0 1019.3 16.7 361.2 211.8 50.8 -365.7 20051 2464.9 758.0 1080.7 1049.6 31.1 355.9 214.7 55.6 -287.4 20052 2495.3 760.8 1079.1 1059.7 19.4 359.8 235.9 59.7 -289.7 20053 2543.4 784.3 1094.0 1070.7 23.3 361.9 239.5 63.7 -395.9 20054 2577.7 771.1 1109.9 1079.2 30.7 366.8 261.8 68.1 -263.6 20061 2599.1 803.6 1145.6 1130.8 14.8 351.3 242.5 56.1 -146.8 20062 2645.9 802.3 1163.5 1147.9 15.6 357.0 270.1 53.0 -162.9 20063 2688.7 809.1 1172.3 1156.5 15.8 365.6 288.8 52.9 -173.1 20064 2663.2 817.1 1179.5 1172.9 6.6 358.2 256.2 52.2 -131.4 20071 2756.1 826.9 1220.9 1199.2 21.7 370.5 284.5 53.3 -142.1 20072 2802.7 840.7 1244.2 1222.5 21.7 375.0 289.5 53.3 -142.6 20073 2850.0 854.5 1267.9 1246.2 21.7 379.6 294.6 53.3 -137.1 20074 2897.5 868.1 1292.2 1270.5 21.7 384.3 299.6 53.3 -132.3 20081 2945.6 881.7 1316.8 1295.1 21.7 389.0 304.7 53.3 -128.7 20082 2994.1 895.3 1342.0 1320.3 21.7 393.8 309.7 53.3 -126.2 20083 3043.1 908.8 1367.6 1345.9 21.7 398.6 314.7 53.3 -124.5 20084 3092.7 922.2 1393.8 1372.1 21.7 403.5 319.9 53.3 -123.5 20091 3143.0 935.7 1420.4 1398.7 21.7 408.5 325.1 53.3 -122.9 20092 3194.0 949.1 1447.6 1425.9 21.7 413.5 330.5 53.3 -122.5 20093 3245.7 962.6 1475.3 1453.6 21.7 418.6 335.9 53.3 -122.0 20094 3298.0 976.1 1503.6 1481.9 21.7 423.7 341.3 53.3 -121.4 20101 3351.1 989.7 1532.3 1510.6 21.7 428.9 346.8 53.3 -120.4 20102 3404.8 1003.4 1561.7 1540.0 21.7 434.2 352.3 53.3 -118.9 20103 3459.2 1017.1 1591.6 1569.9 21.7 439.5 357.7 53.3 -117.0 20104 3514.3 1031.0 1622.1 1600.4 21.7 444.9 363.0 53.3 -114.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.7 240.1 40.4 760.3 23.1 339.5 20042 1468.1 242.0 43.7 772.7 24.0 349.8 20043 1475.8 250.8 42.7 780.9 24.7 345.7 20044 1527.5 260.7 45.6 798.4 25.2 361.2 20051 1555.7 266.7 58.7 813.0 25.3 355.9 20052 1586.3 280.9 57.1 826.9 25.3 359.8 20053 1594.8 274.0 54.7 837.5 25.3 361.9 20054 1611.2 279.3 61.3 845.5 25.2 366.8 20061 1635.6 293.4 66.4 861.5 24.8 351.3 20062 1674.3 311.1 68.8 873.6 24.7 357.0 20063 1676.7 297.8 70.9 877.8 24.7 365.6 20064 1678.1 300.2 68.5 885.8 24.8 358.2 20071 1719.9 317.4 70.8 894.7 25.1 370.5 20072 1746.7 324.7 70.6 909.7 25.3 375.0 20073 1774.1 331.9 71.6 924.0 25.5 379.6 20074 1801.0 339.1 72.6 937.9 25.7 384.3 20081 1827.4 346.3 73.5 951.3 25.9 389.0 20082 1853.6 353.4 74.4 964.6 26.0 393.8 20083 1879.7 360.5 75.3 977.6 26.2 398.6 20084 1905.8 367.7 76.1 990.6 26.4 403.5 20091 1931.9 374.8 77.0 1003.6 26.6 408.5 20092 1958.3 382.1 77.9 1016.6 26.8 413.5 20093 1985.0 389.5 78.8 1029.7 27.0 418.6 20094 2012.1 397.0 79.8 1043.0 27.2 423.7 20101 2039.6 404.6 80.7 1056.5 27.4 428.9 20102 2067.5 412.4 81.7 1070.2 27.6 434.2 20103 2096.0 420.4 82.7 1084.2 27.8 439.5 20104 2125.0 428.6 83.7 1098.4 28.0 444.9
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 0.0 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 15.1 20041 1453.3 1103.9 320.1 28.7 2.1 2.7 0.0 -14.6 20042 1481.7 1120.9 329.9 29.4 2.2 3.7 0.0 -13.6 20043 1498.1 1136.6 329.2 30.0 2.4 4.7 0.0 -22.3 20044 1528.6 1160.0 335.5 30.5 3.0 5.6 0.0 -1.1 20051 1544.7 1174.6 336.7 29.9 2.3 5.8 0.0 11.0 20052 1573.9 1192.8 346.1 30.3 2.5 7.2 0.0 12.4 20053 1614.0 1217.8 345.7 30.9 2.5 22.1 0.0 -19.2 20054 1628.4 1243.4 347.4 31.8 2.5 8.3 0.0 -17.2 20061 1623.0 1256.2 329.4 31.7 2.5 8.2 0.0 12.6 20062 1648.3 1280.7 329.5 32.1 2.6 8.6 0.0 26.0 20063 1686.9 1300.0 347.7 32.7 2.6 9.1 0.0 -10.2 20064 1696.7 1316.5 341.0 32.0 2.6 9.8 0.0 -18.6 20071 1750.9 1341.6 369.3 32.3 2.6 10.3 0.0 -31.0 20072 1780.1 1365.7 374.2 32.5 2.6 10.3 0.0 -33.4 20073 1809.3 1389.7 379.2 32.8 2.6 10.3 0.0 -35.2 20074 1838.4 1413.5 384.1 33.0 2.6 10.3 0.0 -37.4 20081 1867.5 1437.3 389.2 33.3 2.6 10.3 0.0 -40.0 20082 1896.6 1461.0 394.3 33.5 2.6 10.3 0.0 -42.9 20083 1925.7 1484.7 399.6 33.8 2.6 10.3 0.0 -46.0 20084 1955.0 1508.3 405.0 34.0 2.6 10.3 0.0 -49.2 20091 1984.3 1531.9 410.4 34.3 2.6 10.3 0.0 -52.3 20092 2013.6 1555.5 415.9 34.5 2.6 10.3 0.0 -55.3 20093 2043.1 1579.2 421.4 34.8 2.6 10.3 0.0 -58.1 20094 2072.6 1603.0 426.9 35.0 2.6 10.3 0.0 -60.5 20101 2102.3 1626.9 432.4 35.3 2.6 10.3 0.0 -62.8 20102 2132.2 1651.0 437.9 35.6 2.6 10.3 0.0 -64.7 20103 2162.3 1675.3 443.4 35.8 2.6 10.3 0.0 -66.3 20104 2192.6 1699.9 448.9 36.1 2.6 10.3 0.0 -67.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.8 104.2 108.1 20032 106.1 105.1 92.8 103.4 109.0 20033 106.6 105.7 91.9 104.4 109.8 20034 107.2 106.1 91.1 104.6 110.6 20041 108.2 107.0 91.0 106.0 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.1 107.6 112.4 20043 109.7 108.5 90.6 107.9 113.3 20044 110.6 109.3 90.6 109.0 114.1 20051 111.5 109.9 90.7 109.3 115.0 20052 112.2 110.7 90.6 110.6 115.9 20053 113.1 111.7 89.9 113.0 116.9 20054 114.0 112.7 89.6 113.2 118.3 20061 115.0 113.1 89.4 113.5 119.2 20062 115.9 114.3 89.2 115.8 120.1 20063 116.4 114.9 89.0 116.4 121.0 20064 116.9 114.6 88.4 114.1 121.8 20071 118.0 115.5 88.0 115.5 122.9 20072 119.3 116.5 88.8 116.6 124.0 20073 120.4 117.5 89.5 117.6 125.1 20074 121.6 118.5 90.3 118.6 126.1 20081 122.7 119.5 91.0 119.6 127.1 20082 123.9 120.4 91.7 120.5 128.1 20083 124.9 121.3 92.4 121.4 129.1 20084 126.0 122.2 93.1 122.3 130.1 20091 127.1 123.1 93.8 123.2 131.0 20092 128.1 123.9 94.4 124.0 131.9 20093 129.1 124.7 95.0 124.8 132.8 20094 130.1 125.6 95.7 125.7 133.6 20101 131.1 126.4 96.3 126.5 134.5 20102 132.1 127.2 96.9 127.3 135.4 20103 133.0 128.0 97.5 128.1 136.2 20104 134.0 128.7 98.1 128.9 137.1
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.1 20032 103.2 99.3 111.5 101.2 99.1 109.5 20033 103.6 99.5 112.2 101.4 99.7 110.1 20034 104.6 99.8 114.3 102.2 99.8 110.7 20041 105.7 100.1 117.2 103.7 102.1 112.6 20042 107.0 100.6 119.7 104.9 103.9 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.4 105.3 115.3 20044 108.8 101.6 123.6 106.5 107.1 117.0 20051 109.6 102.5 124.2 107.7 107.8 119.0 20052 110.5 103.0 125.4 108.6 110.2 120.3 20053 111.6 103.6 127.5 109.3 112.9 122.0 20054 112.8 104.5 129.5 110.1 114.1 123.4 20061 113.7 105.5 130.7 110.7 113.9 124.8 20062 114.3 106.3 131.7 112.4 116.6 126.3 20063 114.0 106.5 131.6 113.6 118.1 127.2 20064 114.7 107.3 132.9 113.4 115.5 127.7 20071 115.0 107.8 133.4 114.4 115.8 129.6 20072 115.9 108.8 134.6 115.6 116.3 131.2 20073 116.9 109.7 135.8 116.7 116.7 132.7 20074 117.9 110.6 136.9 117.8 117.1 134.2 20081 118.8 111.5 138.0 118.9 117.6 135.7 20082 119.7 112.4 139.1 120.0 118.0 137.2 20083 120.6 113.3 140.2 121.0 118.5 138.6 20084 121.4 114.1 141.2 122.0 118.9 140.1 20091 122.3 114.9 142.2 123.0 119.3 141.5 20092 123.1 115.7 143.2 124.0 119.8 142.9 20093 124.0 116.5 144.1 124.9 120.2 144.3 20094 124.8 117.2 145.1 125.8 120.7 145.7 20101 125.6 118.0 146.0 126.8 121.1 147.1 20102 126.4 118.7 147.0 127.7 121.6 148.5 20103 127.2 119.5 147.9 128.6 122.0 149.9 20104 128.0 120.2 148.8 129.5 122.5 151.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment