US Forecast: July 27, 2007
Forecast Period

2007:3--2010:4 (14 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 27, 2007. The data have been revised back to 2004:1.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2007:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: July 27, 2007, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004). Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Finally, beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2007:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:2-1993.3  

TRGH          8.0                  5.8       
COG           3.0                  3.6       
JG            1.0                 -0.9       
TRGS          5.0                  6.2       
TRSH          5.0                  6.1       
COS           3.0                  3.9       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            7.0                  5.7
PIM           1.5                  1.0

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This is a useful base case around which experiments can be made.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for the next four quarters are 4.1, 3.7, 3.4, and 3.1 percent, respectively. The higher growth rates in the next two quarters are primarily due to a predicted inventory correction---see variable IVF. The unemployment rate falls slightly to 4.1 percent by the beginning of 2009. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.5, 2.1, 2.3, and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 4.4, 4.4, 4.3, and 4.3 percent, respectively. These predicted values are probably higher than most others are predicting. The model has been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters except for 2007:1, and so the current predictions should be interpreted with some caution. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem in the next year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will rise to 5.9 percent by the beginning of 2009.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to fall to about $150 billion by 2009 (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.)

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be around $745 billion in the next four quarters (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards. It falls to $688 billion by the end of 2010, which is still a very large deficit.

Possible Experiments to Run

As noted above, the current forecast is a good base from which to make alternative assumptions. On the side of stimulus, you can increase government spending. It may be, for example, that COG will grow more rapidly than assumed above, perhaps because of increased defense spending. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. (Will the Fed do something different than equation 30 is predicting, which is a small increase in the bill rate?) You can also change tax rates, either up or down, from the base case of no change.

Regarding prices, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or a depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent throughout the forecast period. (If you increase PIM, inflation will be even higher than is currently forecast.)

Regarding the stock market, the S&P 500 index is currently high relative to earnings. Each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1480. If you think this is too high and that the index will fall to, say, 1280, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$2,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$8,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook.

US Forecast Tables: July 27, 2007
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10126.0 1.2 4143.3 1.5 2072.5 3.8 971.4 0.4 20032 10212.7 3.5 4161.3 1.7 2084.1 2.3 1009.8 16.8 20033 10398.7 7.5 4190.7 2.9 2123.0 7.7 1049.6 16.7 20034 10467.0 2.7 4220.2 2.8 2132.4 1.8 1051.4 0.7 20041 10543.6 3.0 4262.9 4.1 2156.7 4.6 1066.2 5.8 20042 10634.2 3.5 4294.6 3.0 2164.9 1.5 1071.3 1.9 20043 10728.7 3.6 4325.2 2.9 2181.4 3.1 1091.5 7.8 20044 10796.4 2.5 4361.1 3.4 2207.5 4.9 1110.1 7.0 20051 10878.4 3.1 4381.3 1.9 2226.8 3.5 1116.0 2.1 20052 10954.1 2.8 4401.3 1.8 2247.1 3.7 1146.3 11.3 20053 11074.3 4.5 4449.1 4.4 2260.9 2.5 1163.5 6.1 20054 11107.2 1.2 4477.5 2.6 2286.8 4.7 1123.8 -13.0 20061 11238.7 4.8 4501.0 2.1 2312.3 4.5 1167.8 16.6 20062 11306.7 2.4 4531.6 2.7 2325.6 2.3 1170.2 0.8 20063 11336.7 1.1 4554.0 2.0 2343.8 3.2 1186.3 5.6 20064 11395.5 2.1 4595.5 3.7 2368.8 4.3 1197.6 3.9 20071 11412.6 0.6 4630.7 3.1 2386.5 3.0 1223.2 8.8 20072 11507.9 3.4 4655.9 2.2 2381.8 -0.8 1228.2 1.6 20073 11624.7 4.1 4689.1 2.9 2401.0 3.3 1246.6 6.1 20074 11730.6 3.7 4721.6 2.8 2421.6 3.5 1262.1 5.1 20081 11827.7 3.4 4753.5 2.7 2439.8 3.0 1275.0 4.2 20082 11917.2 3.1 4785.3 2.7 2455.6 2.6 1286.1 3.5 20083 12000.0 2.8 4817.2 2.7 2469.5 2.3 1296.0 3.1 20084 12079.0 2.7 4849.1 2.7 2482.2 2.1 1304.9 2.8 20091 12156.2 2.6 4881.2 2.7 2494.0 1.9 1313.3 2.6 20092 12232.9 2.5 4913.6 2.7 2505.3 1.8 1321.4 2.5 20093 12310.1 2.5 4946.4 2.7 2516.3 1.8 1329.6 2.5 20094 12388.5 2.6 4979.8 2.7 2527.4 1.8 1337.9 2.5 20101 12468.2 2.6 5013.7 2.8 2538.5 1.8 1346.6 2.6 20102 12549.4 2.6 5048.2 2.8 2550.0 1.8 1355.8 2.8 20103 12632.2 2.7 5083.4 2.8 2561.8 1.9 1365.5 2.9 20104 12716.3 2.7 5119.2 2.9 2574.0 1.9 1375.8 3.1
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20021 386.8 12.6 908.6 -14.6 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 856.8 -20.9 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 879.6 11.1 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 864.6 -6.7 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 414.7 5.4 881.8 8.2 24.3 1510.5 -5.1 20032 426.0 11.4 894.2 5.8 -2.7 1525.9 4.1 20033 453.1 27.9 902.0 3.5 10.5 1540.0 3.7 20034 460.1 6.3 888.9 -5.7 25.0 1603.6 17.6 20041 451.5 -7.3 884.2 -2.1 35.0 1650.9 12.3 20042 483.2 31.1 919.8 17.1 64.9 1710.4 15.2 20043 483.5 0.3 923.4 1.6 60.1 1730.7 4.8 20044 486.3 2.4 927.9 2.0 57.2 1787.6 13.8 20051 495.2 7.5 966.1 17.5 63.4 1796.8 2.1 20052 517.1 18.9 983.1 7.2 10.1 1800.3 0.8 20053 518.5 1.1 1012.7 12.6 5.9 1809.7 2.1 20054 525.0 5.2 1026.1 5.4 53.6 1878.9 16.2 20061 516.1 -6.6 1062.2 14.8 38.4 1910.7 6.9 20062 499.8 -12.0 1075.7 5.2 51.4 1915.0 0.9 20063 454.3 -31.8 1091.9 6.2 53.9 1940.4 5.4 20064 435.5 -15.5 1092.5 0.2 17.4 1948.2 1.6 20071 406.5 -24.0 1102.0 3.5 0.1 1966.8 3.9 20072 396.8 -9.2 1123.6 8.1 3.6 1953.7 -2.6 20073 392.8 -4.0 1142.0 6.7 27.0 1980.3 5.5 20074 395.5 2.8 1160.3 6.6 40.3 2012.6 6.7 20081 399.6 4.2 1180.2 7.0 49.0 2047.0 7.0 20082 403.9 4.4 1201.7 7.5 51.8 2081.0 6.8 20083 408.1 4.2 1220.6 6.4 51.2 2113.2 6.3 20084 412.3 4.2 1236.8 5.4 49.3 2143.4 5.8 20091 416.4 4.0 1250.8 4.6 46.9 2172.1 5.4 20092 420.4 3.9 1263.0 4.0 44.7 2199.5 5.1 20093 424.5 3.9 1273.8 3.5 43.1 2226.2 5.0 20094 428.7 4.1 1283.4 3.1 42.1 2252.8 4.9 20101 433.3 4.3 1292.2 2.8 41.7 2279.6 4.8 20102 438.1 4.5 1300.2 2.5 41.6 2306.7 4.9 20103 443.2 4.8 1307.7 2.3 41.8 2334.5 4.9 20104 448.6 5.0 1314.7 2.2 42.1 2362.9 5.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20021 1.5 0.6 4.9 4.2 20022 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.3 20023 1.5 0.9 2.2 1.3 20024 2.2 1.9 -0.2 -2.1 20031 3.2 2.1 4.1 1.9 20032 1.3 0.3 9.2 8.9 20033 2.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 20034 2.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 20041 3.7 2.8 3.7 1.0 20042 3.8 3.5 7.6 4.0 20043 2.3 2.8 4.4 1.5 20044 3.2 3.1 6.7 3.5 20051 3.9 3.7 0.7 -2.9 20052 2.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 20053 3.5 4.0 4.8 0.8 20054 3.5 3.8 3.0 -0.8 20061 3.4 3.0 8.1 5.0 20062 3.5 3.6 -0.5 -4.0 20063 2.4 1.4 0.9 -0.5 20064 1.7 1.0 8.5 7.4 20071 4.3 3.3 9.9 6.5 20072 2.7 2.5 1.5 -1.0 20073 4.4 4.6 6.2 1.6 20074 4.4 4.4 6.1 1.6 20081 4.3 4.4 6.0 1.6 20082 4.3 4.3 6.0 1.6 20083 4.2 4.2 5.9 1.7 20084 4.1 4.1 5.8 1.7 20091 4.0 3.9 5.7 1.7 20092 3.8 3.8 5.6 1.8 20093 3.7 3.6 5.5 1.8 20094 3.6 3.5 5.4 1.8 20101 3.5 3.4 5.3 1.9 20102 3.4 3.3 5.2 1.9 20103 3.3 3.2 5.1 1.9 20104 3.2 3.1 5.1 1.9
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1268.5 -10.0 66.7 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1274.3 1.8 66.6 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1299.5 8.1 68.1 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1312.6 4.1 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1339.5 8.4 73.8 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1371.6 9.9 72.9 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1368.7 -0.9 75.3 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1392.4 7.1 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1422.1 8.8 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1436.4 4.1 77.8 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1459.0 6.4 71.5 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1485.3 7.4 65.6 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1491.0 1.5 74.3 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1493.9 0.8 72.7 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1479.5 -3.8 66.7 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1482.9 0.9 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1514.8 8.9 66.9 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1504.8 -2.6 66.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1473.2 -8.1 60.9 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1473.4 0.1 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1509.7 10.2 65.4 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1506.3 -0.9 65.3 20073 4.7 5.7 6.5 1522.4 4.3 65.0 20074 5.1 6.0 6.8 1538.1 4.2 65.5 20081 5.4 6.2 7.1 1553.7 4.1 65.8 20082 5.6 6.4 7.3 1569.4 4.1 66.2 20083 5.7 6.5 7.5 1585.5 4.2 66.7 20084 5.8 6.7 7.7 1602.0 4.2 67.3 20091 5.9 6.8 7.9 1619.0 4.3 67.8 20092 5.9 7.0 8.0 1636.3 4.4 68.4 20093 5.9 7.1 8.2 1654.2 4.4 69.1 20094 6.0 7.2 8.3 1672.5 4.5 69.8 20101 6.0 7.3 8.4 1691.3 4.6 70.6 20102 5.9 7.4 8.4 1710.6 4.6 71.3 20103 5.9 7.4 8.5 1730.2 4.7 72.1 20104 5.9 7.5 8.6 1750.3 4.7 73.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20021 5.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.5 4.9 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.2 -1.2 4.6 -0.6 1.4 8.3 20024 5.8 -1.1 0.2 1.3 1.0 -0.4 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.4 1.8 1.3 -0.8 0.7 8.5 20032 6.1 2.3 0.7 3.0 -1.2 0.9 9.0 20033 6.1 0.5 -1.7 -0.4 1.2 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 0.7 -0.7 2.8 1.2 2.1 8.5 20041 5.7 -0.9 -0.1 4.9 1.0 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 2.0 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 2.1 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.1 -0.1 4.4 1.4 1.5 8.0 20051 5.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 0.9 1.1 5.5 2.4 3.1 7.6 20053 5.0 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.3 7.5 20054 4.9 -0.3 0.4 2.5 1.3 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.5 0.6 1.3 3.1 2.2 7.0 20062 4.6 0.2 0.6 4.7 1.7 1.9 7.0 20063 4.7 0.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 7.1 20064 4.4 2.2 -0.2 3.7 1.4 2.8 6.8 20071 4.5 1.8 -0.7 1.2 1.3 0.6 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.2 6.9 20073 4.5 0.3 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 6.9 20074 4.4 0.3 0.5 2.2 2.1 1.3 6.8 20081 4.3 0.3 0.5 2.3 2.3 1.5 6.7 20082 4.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 2.2 1.5 6.5 20083 4.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 2.0 1.4 6.4 20084 4.1 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.8 1.3 6.4 20091 4.1 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.6 1.1 6.4 20092 4.1 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.5 1.0 6.5 20093 4.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.3 1.0 6.5 20094 4.2 0.4 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.9 6.6 20101 4.3 0.4 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.9 6.7 20102 4.3 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.9 6.8 20103 4.4 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.9 6.9 20104 4.4 0.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 1.0 7.0
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20021 12.8 415.7 8.8 3.0 3.9 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6782.1 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.6 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -8037.4 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.4 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3726.9 576.5 61.4 1.8 -1.1 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1256.3 558.0 -12.2 1.9 2.6 530.8 -290.3 -61.3 20032 6241.7 543.9 -9.8 2.2 5.1 512.7 -365.5 -27.1 20033 1783.0 591.9 40.3 2.4 7.3 509.9 -451.3 -8.2 20034 7432.4 669.6 63.7 2.3 0.3 495.6 -381.5 15.1 20041 1384.2 780.8 85.0 2.1 1.5 539.3 -411.0 -8.0 20042 851.0 848.6 39.5 2.1 4.6 616.2 -374.1 -1.9 20043 -742.0 906.1 30.0 1.8 3.9 619.3 -361.8 -12.2 20044 6602.9 885.3 -8.8 2.6 -2.0 721.7 -335.5 28.0 20051 -540.7 1093.2 132.4 1.0 1.7 714.4 -298.0 32.1 20052 1469.6 1149.1 22.1 0.8 2.4 710.1 -287.6 25.7 20053 3013.3 1163.5 5.1 -0.6 8.4 674.6 -394.2 5.6 20054 3305.9 1218.5 20.3 0.8 -3.3 840.9 -293.3 -2.4 20061 3923.7 1262.2 15.1 0.9 -0.3 786.3 -219.6 35.6 20062 -761.6 1323.9 21.0 0.3 -0.4 811.8 -239.9 43.1 20063 2856.2 1353.3 9.2 0.0 -0.1 850.1 -239.1 12.5 20064 5161.7 1270.0 -22.4 0.4 1.1 728.3 -181.4 7.7 20071 1460.8 1327.3 19.3 1.1 1.8 756.0 -210.0 -6.0 20072 3400.0 1389.2 20.0 0.6 3.4 746.0 -211.5 6.8 20073 1555.5 1459.0 21.7 0.5 2.7 742.0 -195.2 8.5 20074 1216.9 1494.3 10.0 0.4 1.8 744.3 -183.4 10.2 20081 1170.7 1519.6 6.9 0.5 1.3 748.5 -173.3 11.4 20082 1205.9 1539.1 5.2 0.5 1.2 751.6 -165.2 11.9 20083 1231.1 1555.3 4.3 0.6 1.1 752.0 -159.3 11.5 20084 1259.4 1571.4 4.2 0.7 1.2 749.6 -155.4 10.2 20091 1306.8 1588.4 4.4 0.8 1.3 744.8 -153.0 8.4 20092 1370.4 1606.9 4.7 0.8 1.5 738.2 -151.8 6.2 20093 1434.4 1627.0 5.1 0.9 1.6 730.3 -151.4 3.8 20094 1492.5 1648.7 5.4 1.0 1.7 721.9 -151.5 1.3 20101 1547.0 1671.8 5.7 1.1 1.8 713.2 -151.9 -1.1 20102 1599.9 1695.9 5.9 1.1 1.9 704.5 -152.4 -3.3 20103 1650.5 1721.0 6.0 1.2 1.9 696.0 -152.8 -5.3 20104 1698.4 1746.8 6.1 1.3 1.9 687.9 -153.2 -7.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.6 -7.4 -5.4 935.2 7.3 11.4 20032 37.9 -2.1 -1.7 950.7 6.8 -3.9 20033 0.6 6.2 11.3 958.9 3.5 2.6 20034 6.1 -2.5 20.8 967.2 3.5 0.4 20041 10.0 -2.3 10.0 992.4 10.8 9.0 20042 5.0 1.1 6.5 994.2 0.7 7.3 20043 10.4 -4.3 3.1 999.2 2.0 5.2 20044 -10.5 -2.7 10.0 1011.5 5.0 6.8 20051 4.9 -0.6 6.1 1045.4 14.1 2.3 20052 2.2 2.5 9.5 1057.9 4.9 9.7 20053 16.9 -2.0 2.1 1072.9 5.8 10.4 20054 -12.5 0.9 10.6 1084.1 4.2 4.4 20061 19.4 7.1 11.5 1141.6 23.0 -1.5 20062 -3.0 5.0 5.7 1162.9 7.7 10.1 20063 -1.2 -0.7 5.8 1178.0 5.3 4.7 20064 13.8 1.1 14.3 1194.9 5.9 -9.3 20071 -10.3 5.8 1.1 1229.1 11.9 1.0 20072 12.9 4.4 6.4 1251.5 7.5 12.2 20073 3.0 3.0 7.0 1275.8 8.0 1.5 20074 3.0 3.0 7.0 1300.6 8.0 1.5 20081 3.0 3.0 7.0 1325.9 8.0 1.5 20082 3.0 3.0 7.0 1351.6 8.0 1.5 20083 3.0 3.0 7.0 1377.9 8.0 1.5 20084 3.0 3.0 7.0 1404.6 8.0 1.5 20091 3.0 3.0 7.0 1431.9 8.0 1.5 20092 3.0 3.0 7.0 1459.7 8.0 1.5 20093 3.0 3.0 7.0 1488.1 8.0 1.5 20094 3.0 3.0 7.0 1517.0 8.0 1.5 20101 3.0 3.0 7.0 1546.5 8.0 1.5 20102 3.0 3.0 7.0 1576.5 8.0 1.5 20103 3.0 3.0 7.0 1607.2 8.0 1.5 20104 3.0 3.0 7.0 1638.4 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2589.0 1143.2 370.3 105.0 948.3 20072 2623.2 1161.4 382.2 104.0 953.3 20073 2691.6 1195.8 395.7 105.9 972.0 20074 2756.5 1232.3 402.5 107.7 991.7 20081 2820.5 1269.7 407.4 109.5 1011.6 20082 2883.1 1307.2 411.1 111.3 1031.3 20083 2944.2 1344.3 414.3 113.0 1050.3 20084 3004.1 1381.0 417.4 114.7 1068.8 20091 3063.4 1417.3 420.6 116.3 1086.8 20092 3122.2 1453.4 424.2 117.9 1104.4 20093 3180.9 1489.4 428.1 119.6 1121.7 20094 3239.9 1525.4 432.3 121.2 1138.7 20101 3299.3 1561.7 436.7 122.8 1155.8 20102 3359.3 1598.4 441.4 124.4 1172.8 20103 3419.9 1635.5 446.2 126.1 1189.8 20104 3481.5 1673.2 451.2 127.7 1207.0
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -210.0 20072 2834.7 850.8 1251.5 15.2 376.1 291.6 49.5 -211.5 20073 2886.8 865.6 1275.8 15.2 380.7 300.0 49.5 -195.2 20074 2939.9 880.4 1300.6 15.2 385.4 308.8 49.5 -183.4 20081 2993.7 895.4 1325.9 15.2 390.1 317.7 49.5 -173.3 20082 3048.3 910.4 1351.6 15.2 394.9 326.6 49.5 -165.2 20083 3103.5 925.5 1377.9 15.2 399.8 335.7 49.5 -159.3 20084 3159.5 940.6 1404.6 15.2 404.7 345.0 49.5 -155.4 20091 3216.4 955.6 1431.9 15.2 409.6 354.5 49.5 -153.0 20092 3274.0 970.6 1459.7 15.2 414.7 364.3 49.5 -151.8 20093 3332.3 985.5 1488.1 15.2 419.7 374.3 49.5 -151.4 20094 3391.4 1000.4 1517.0 15.2 424.9 384.4 49.5 -151.5 20101 3451.2 1015.2 1546.5 15.2 430.1 394.6 49.5 -151.9 20102 3511.6 1030.0 1576.5 15.2 435.4 405.0 49.5 -152.4 20103 3572.8 1044.8 1607.2 15.2 440.7 415.3 49.5 -152.8 20104 3634.6 1059.7 1638.4 15.2 446.1 425.7 49.5 -153.2
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1749.6 325.3 63.8 915.6 26.0 376.1 20073 1781.2 333.5 66.0 932.0 26.2 380.7 20074 1812.2 342.1 67.2 948.3 26.4 385.4 20081 1842.5 350.9 68.0 964.1 26.6 390.1 20082 1872.3 359.7 68.6 979.5 26.8 394.9 20083 1901.6 368.4 69.1 994.6 27.0 399.8 20084 1930.6 376.9 69.7 1009.4 27.2 404.7 20091 1959.3 385.4 70.2 1023.9 27.4 409.6 20092 1987.9 393.8 70.8 1038.3 27.6 414.7 20093 2016.5 402.1 71.4 1052.6 27.8 419.7 20094 2045.1 410.4 72.1 1066.8 28.0 424.9 20101 2073.9 418.8 72.9 1081.1 28.2 430.1 20102 2103.0 427.3 73.7 1095.5 28.4 435.4 20103 2132.3 435.8 74.5 1109.9 28.6 440.7 20104 2162.0 444.4 75.3 1124.6 28.8 446.1
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 -6.0 20072 1742.8 1357.9 352.5 22.5 2.5 12.4 6.8 20073 1772.7 1383.4 356.7 22.7 2.5 12.4 8.5 20074 1802.0 1409.0 360.3 22.8 2.5 12.4 10.2 20081 1831.1 1434.8 363.4 23.0 2.5 12.4 11.4 20082 1860.4 1460.7 366.6 23.2 2.5 12.4 11.9 20083 1890.2 1486.8 370.2 23.3 2.5 12.4 11.5 20084 1920.4 1512.9 374.1 23.5 2.5 12.4 10.2 20091 1950.9 1538.9 378.4 23.7 2.5 12.4 8.4 20092 1981.7 1564.9 383.0 23.9 2.5 12.4 6.2 20093 2012.7 1590.8 387.9 24.0 2.5 12.4 3.8 20094 2043.8 1616.7 393.0 24.2 2.5 12.4 1.3 20101 2075.0 1642.5 398.2 24.4 2.5 12.4 -1.1 20102 2106.3 1668.3 403.5 24.6 2.5 12.4 -3.3 20103 2137.6 1694.1 408.9 24.8 2.5 12.4 -5.3 20104 2169.1 1720.0 414.3 25.0 2.5 12.4 -7.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20021 -78.7 -64.7 102.2 421.0 -209.3 -170.4 20022 -100.5 -14.6 67.8 459.5 -245.4 -166.9 20023 -172.7 30.9 91.9 463.5 -249.6 -163.9 20024 -210.6 84.4 94.0 489.3 -287.7 -169.3 20031 -205.0 30.8 127.0 530.8 -289.2 -194.3 20032 -191.8 68.7 138.1 512.7 -368.9 -158.7 20033 -203.9 164.9 132.8 509.9 -456.7 -147.0 20034 -222.4 126.2 114.7 495.6 -394.7 -119.4 20041 -227.3 141.1 107.3 539.3 -419.8 -140.5 20042 -279.2 83.1 100.1 616.2 -381.8 -138.4 20043 -255.5 133.4 24.7 619.3 -375.2 -146.7 20044 -242.2 -78.9 54.9 721.7 -350.0 -105.5 20051 -391.8 -11.0 104.8 714.4 -313.3 -103.0 20052 -445.7 87.7 62.9 710.1 -301.4 -113.6 20053 -387.5 256.7 -19.5 674.6 -406.0 -118.3 20054 -458.8 38.7 33.8 840.9 -312.3 -142.4 20061 -451.8 -67.9 85.6 786.3 -241.3 -110.9 20062 -491.1 -62.5 113.4 811.8 -258.3 -113.4 20063 -465.0 -77.2 87.1 850.1 -253.6 -141.4 20064 -391.4 -97.1 109.5 728.3 -203.2 -146.1 20071 -284.6 -187.2 112.8 756.0 -227.7 -169.3 20072 -322.3 -142.5 110.5 746.0 -230.0 -161.7 20073 -329.3 -151.8 114.3 742.0 -213.7 -161.6 20074 -338.8 -160.2 118.1 744.3 -201.7 -161.6 20081 -343.7 -173.1 121.8 748.5 -191.5 -162.1 20082 -345.5 -185.0 125.4 751.6 -183.3 -163.3 20083 -345.9 -192.3 128.9 752.0 -177.3 -165.4 20084 -345.4 -195.0 132.4 749.6 -173.3 -168.3 20091 -343.9 -193.9 135.7 744.8 -170.8 -171.9 20092 -341.8 -189.9 138.8 738.2 -169.4 -175.9 20093 -339.5 -183.9 141.9 730.3 -168.8 -180.0 20094 -337.4 -176.3 144.8 721.9 -168.8 -184.3 20101 -335.7 -167.6 147.6 713.2 -169.0 -188.5 20102 -334.6 -158.3 150.2 704.5 -169.3 -192.5 20103 -334.5 -148.4 152.8 696.0 -169.6 -196.3 20104 -335.3 -138.2 155.3 687.9 -169.8 -199.9 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10705.5 7548.2 911.5 2159.0 4477.7 20032 10831.8 7628.3 937.3 2155.4 4535.6 20033 11086.0 7782.6 964.4 2216.8 4601.4 20034 11219.5 7855.3 957.4 2229.5 4668.4 20041 11405.6 8010.1 969.6 2284.2 4756.3 20042 11610.4 8134.9 974.8 2327.7 4832.4 20043 11779.3 8245.0 986.9 2353.5 4904.6 20044 11948.4 8393.3 1004.1 2409.3 4979.9 20051 12154.1 8488.8 1009.7 2432.1 5047.0 20052 12317.4 8632.6 1036.0 2484.3 5112.3 20053 12558.7 8810.5 1044.1 2557.0 5209.4 20054 12705.6 8899.4 1005.7 2591.3 5302.4 20061 12964.5 9034.7 1042.6 2622.1 5370.0 20062 13155.0 9183.9 1042.8 2692.2 5448.9 20063 13266.8 9305.7 1053.8 2732.4 5519.5 20064 13392.2 9373.7 1056.5 2705.4 5611.8 20071 13553.7 9540.5 1074.0 2759.4 5707.1 20072 13757.6 9672.0 1074.6 2820.6 5776.8 20073 14047.0 9845.5 1101.2 2870.6 5873.7 20074 14327.0 10017.7 1125.3 2922.4 5970.0 20081 14599.2 10184.8 1147.3 2971.6 6065.9 20082 14864.1 10347.4 1167.8 3017.9 6161.7 20083 15121.6 10506.6 1187.1 3061.9 6257.6 20084 15374.3 10662.8 1205.6 3104.0 6353.2 20091 15623.7 10816.4 1223.4 3144.6 6448.3 20092 15871.0 10968.2 1240.9 3184.2 6543.2 20093 16117.3 11119.1 1258.2 3223.0 6637.9 20094 16363.4 11269.6 1275.5 3261.4 6732.7 20101 16609.9 11420.4 1293.2 3299.6 6827.7 20102 16857.2 11572.0 1311.2 3337.8 6923.1 20103 17105.7 11724.8 1329.6 3376.2 7019.1 20104 17355.7 11879.3 1348.6 3414.9 7115.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1606.3 1583.3 1044.0 539.3 23.0 20032 1617.1 1620.6 1067.4 553.2 -3.5 20033 1690.5 1678.7 1093.3 585.4 11.8 20034 1742.3 1716.4 1104.8 611.6 25.9 20041 1769.6 1732.6 1100.4 632.2 37.0 20042 1875.6 1806.6 1135.5 671.1 69.0 20043 1929.7 1864.7 1172.7 692.0 65.0 20044 1979.5 1916.1 1209.5 706.6 63.4 20051 2029.7 1960.4 1233.1 727.3 69.3 20052 2024.7 2012.5 1255.7 756.8 12.2 20053 2078.5 2072.7 1287.0 785.7 5.8 20054 2176.1 2115.6 1312.6 803.0 60.5 20061 2221.0 2176.7 1367.3 809.4 44.3 20062 2238.9 2179.4 1391.2 788.2 59.5 20063 2224.1 2161.3 1415.2 746.1 62.8 20064 2152.4 2132.4 1417.1 715.3 20.0 20071 2119.0 2118.9 1431.4 687.5 0.1 20072 2136.6 2132.5 1460.6 671.9 4.1 20073 2201.6 2170.3 1496.5 673.8 31.4 20074 2264.6 2217.4 1532.6 684.8 47.2 20081 2326.6 2268.7 1570.8 697.9 58.0 20082 2384.1 2322.3 1611.1 711.2 61.8 20083 2434.8 2373.1 1648.6 724.5 61.7 20084 2480.8 2421.0 1683.3 737.7 59.8 20091 2523.6 2466.2 1715.4 750.8 57.4 20092 2564.3 2509.1 1745.3 763.8 55.2 20093 2603.9 2550.2 1773.5 776.7 53.7 20094 2643.0 2590.2 1800.3 789.9 52.8 20101 2681.9 2629.4 1825.8 803.5 52.6 20102 2720.9 2668.0 1850.5 817.5 52.8 20103 2759.8 2706.3 1874.3 832.0 53.4 20104 2798.8 2744.5 1897.5 847.0 54.3
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -499.3 1012.4 1511.7 2050.3 725.9 1324.4 20032 -501.3 1010.8 1512.1 2087.7 762.2 1325.5 20033 -495.2 1040.7 1535.9 2108.1 764.8 1343.3 20034 -501.8 1099.1 1600.9 2123.7 772.8 1350.9 20041 -543.2 1140.9 1684.1 2169.1 806.2 1362.9 20042 -603.0 1172.8 1775.8 2202.9 821.9 1381.0 20043 -632.7 1187.3 1820.0 2237.3 839.4 1397.9 20044 -682.6 1228.6 1911.2 2258.2 835.0 1423.2 20051 -671.1 1260.8 1931.9 2306.7 864.0 1442.7 20052 -679.8 1301.2 1981.0 2339.9 870.4 1469.5 20053 -725.0 1316.0 2041.0 2394.7 896.0 1498.7 20054 -782.3 1359.6 2141.9 2412.4 883.4 1529.0 20061 -763.3 1406.6 2169.9 2472.1 921.5 1550.6 20062 -780.4 1447.4 2227.8 2512.6 926.9 1585.7 20063 -799.1 1484.5 2283.6 2536.1 932.0 1604.1 20064 -705.3 1531.9 2237.2 2571.4 949.7 1621.7 20071 -714.1 1549.9 2264.0 2608.3 946.6 1661.7 20072 -721.5 1593.1 2314.6 2670.5 969.9 1700.6 20073 -716.6 1638.2 2354.8 2716.4 986.2 1730.3 20074 -718.0 1684.2 2402.1 2762.6 1002.5 1760.1 20081 -721.3 1731.1 2452.4 2809.2 1018.9 1790.2 20082 -723.5 1778.9 2502.4 2856.0 1035.5 1820.6 20083 -723.0 1827.6 2550.6 2903.1 1052.1 1851.0 20084 -719.6 1877.1 2596.7 2950.3 1068.7 1881.6 20091 -713.8 1927.4 2641.2 2997.5 1085.3 1912.2 20092 -706.2 1978.3 2684.5 3044.6 1101.9 1942.7 20093 -697.4 2029.9 2727.3 3091.7 1118.4 1973.3 20094 -687.9 2082.3 2770.2 3138.8 1134.9 2003.8 20101 -678.2 2135.3 2813.5 3185.8 1151.4 2034.4 20102 -668.5 2189.1 2857.7 3232.9 1167.9 2065.0 20103 -659.0 2243.8 2902.8 3280.1 1184.4 2095.7 20104 -649.8 2299.4 2949.2 3327.4 1201.0 2126.5
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10126.0 7187.2 971.4 2072.5 4143.3 20032 10212.7 7255.2 1009.8 2084.1 4161.3 20033 10398.7 7363.3 1049.6 2123.0 4190.7 20034 10467.0 7404.0 1051.4 2132.4 4220.2 20041 10543.6 7485.8 1066.2 2156.7 4262.9 20042 10634.2 7530.8 1071.3 2164.9 4294.6 20043 10728.7 7598.1 1091.5 2181.4 4325.2 20044 10796.4 7678.7 1110.1 2207.5 4361.1 20051 10878.4 7724.1 1116.0 2226.8 4381.3 20052 10954.1 7794.7 1146.3 2247.1 4401.3 20053 11074.3 7873.5 1163.5 2260.9 4449.1 20054 11107.2 7888.1 1123.8 2286.8 4477.5 20061 11238.7 7981.1 1167.8 2312.3 4501.0 20062 11306.7 8027.4 1170.2 2325.6 4531.6 20063 11336.7 8084.1 1186.3 2343.8 4554.0 20064 11395.5 8161.9 1197.6 2368.8 4595.5 20071 11412.6 8240.4 1223.2 2386.5 4630.7 20072 11507.9 8265.9 1228.2 2381.8 4655.9 20073 11624.7 8336.7 1246.6 2401.0 4689.1 20074 11730.6 8405.3 1262.1 2421.6 4721.6 20081 11827.7 8468.3 1275.0 2439.8 4753.5 20082 11917.2 8527.0 1286.1 2455.6 4785.3 20083 12000.0 8582.7 1296.0 2469.5 4817.2 20084 12079.0 8636.3 1304.9 2482.2 4849.1 20091 12156.2 8688.6 1313.3 2494.0 4881.2 20092 12232.9 8740.3 1321.4 2505.3 4913.6 20093 12310.1 8792.3 1329.6 2516.3 4946.4 20094 12388.5 8845.0 1337.9 2527.4 4979.8 20101 12468.2 8898.8 1346.6 2538.5 5013.7 20102 12549.4 8954.0 1355.8 2550.0 5048.2 20103 12632.2 9010.7 1365.5 2561.8 5083.4 20104 12716.3 9069.0 1375.8 2574.0 5119.2
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1555.9 1531.6 1047.5 484.1 24.3 20032 1568.0 1570.7 1074.4 496.3 -2.7 20033 1631.0 1620.5 1098.7 521.8 10.5 20034 1666.7 1641.7 1106.5 535.2 25.0 20041 1674.6 1639.6 1099.1 540.5 35.0 20042 1754.1 1689.2 1127.5 561.7 64.9 20043 1788.3 1728.2 1160.7 567.5 60.1 20044 1817.7 1760.5 1189.6 570.9 57.2 20051 1841.2 1777.8 1199.5 578.3 63.4 20052 1820.6 1810.5 1214.1 596.4 10.1 20053 1851.8 1845.9 1239.5 606.4 5.9 20054 1910.8 1857.2 1250.0 607.2 53.6 20061 1934.2 1895.8 1289.7 606.1 38.4 20062 1942.0 1890.6 1303.1 587.5 51.4 20063 1928.3 1874.4 1319.4 555.0 53.9 20064 1861.5 1844.1 1314.7 529.4 17.4 20071 1828.1 1828.0 1321.7 506.3 0.1 20072 1845.4 1841.8 1347.6 494.2 3.6 20073 1885.5 1858.5 1367.6 490.9 27.0 20074 1922.1 1881.9 1387.6 494.3 40.3 20081 1957.2 1908.2 1409.1 499.1 49.0 20082 1988.2 1936.4 1432.3 504.1 51.8 20083 2013.1 1961.8 1452.9 509.0 51.2 20084 2033.9 1984.6 1470.8 513.9 49.3 20091 2052.1 2005.2 1486.5 518.7 46.9 20092 2068.6 2023.8 1500.4 523.4 44.7 20093 2084.3 2041.1 1512.9 528.2 43.1 20094 2099.6 2057.5 1524.3 533.2 42.1 20101 2115.0 2073.3 1534.8 538.5 41.7 20102 2130.3 2088.7 1544.7 544.0 41.6 20103 2145.6 2103.8 1553.9 549.9 41.8 20104 2160.9 2118.8 1562.7 556.1 42.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -507.2 1003.3 1510.5 1879.3 20032 -526.9 999.0 1525.9 1907.4 20033 -513.8 1026.2 1540.0 1914.4 20034 -527.8 1075.8 1603.6 1917.9 20041 -549.1 1101.8 1650.9 1925.4 20042 -591.0 1119.4 1710.4 1931.8 20043 -602.7 1128.0 1730.7 1939.2 20044 -632.3 1155.3 1787.6 1930.4 20051 -624.4 1172.4 1796.8 1936.7 20052 -601.0 1199.3 1800.3 1942.3 20053 -604.1 1205.6 1809.7 1957.5 20054 -642.5 1236.4 1878.9 1947.9 20061 -640.1 1270.6 1910.7 1971.7 20062 -626.6 1288.4 1915.0 1976.3 20063 -633.8 1306.6 1940.4 1980.0 20064 -597.3 1350.9 1948.2 1997.2 20071 -612.2 1354.6 1966.8 1994.4 20072 -577.9 1375.8 1953.7 2015.3 20073 -581.0 1399.3 1980.3 2024.3 20074 -589.4 1423.1 2012.6 2033.4 20081 -599.6 1447.4 2047.0 2042.6 20082 -608.9 1472.1 2081.0 2051.8 20083 -616.0 1497.2 2113.2 2061.0 20084 -620.7 1522.8 2143.4 2070.3 20091 -623.3 1548.7 2172.1 2079.7 20092 -624.3 1575.2 2199.5 2089.1 20093 -624.2 1602.0 2226.2 2098.6 20094 -623.5 1629.4 2252.8 2108.1 20101 -622.4 1657.1 2279.6 2117.7 20102 -621.3 1685.4 2306.7 2127.3 20103 -620.3 1714.2 2334.5 2137.0 20104 -619.5 1743.4 2362.9 2146.8
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2589.0 1143.2 370.3 105.0 948.3 20072 2623.2 1161.4 382.2 104.0 953.3 20073 2691.6 1195.8 395.7 105.9 972.0 20074 2756.5 1232.3 402.5 107.7 991.7 20081 2820.5 1269.7 407.4 109.5 1011.6 20082 2883.1 1307.2 411.1 111.3 1031.3 20083 2944.2 1344.3 414.3 113.0 1050.3 20084 3004.1 1381.0 417.4 114.7 1068.8 20091 3063.4 1417.3 420.6 116.3 1086.8 20092 3122.2 1453.4 424.2 117.9 1104.4 20093 3180.9 1489.4 428.1 119.6 1121.7 20094 3239.9 1525.4 432.3 121.2 1138.7 20101 3299.3 1561.7 436.7 122.8 1155.8 20102 3359.3 1598.4 441.4 124.4 1172.8 20103 3419.9 1635.5 446.2 126.1 1189.8 20104 3481.5 1673.2 451.2 127.7 1207.0
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 955.6 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 968.2 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 977.3 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 981.1 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 1019.5 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 1010.7 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 1016.3 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1027.7 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1077.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1077.4 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1096.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1118.2 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1159.9 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1187.1 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1203.4 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1208.5 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1263.6 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -210.0 20072 2834.7 850.8 1266.7 1251.5 15.2 376.1 291.6 49.5 -211.5 20073 2886.8 865.6 1291.0 1275.8 15.2 380.7 300.0 49.5 -195.2 20074 2939.9 880.4 1315.8 1300.6 15.2 385.4 308.8 49.5 -183.4 20081 2993.7 895.4 1341.1 1325.9 15.2 390.1 317.7 49.5 -173.3 20082 3048.3 910.4 1366.8 1351.6 15.2 394.9 326.6 49.5 -165.2 20083 3103.5 925.5 1393.1 1377.9 15.2 399.8 335.7 49.5 -159.3 20084 3159.5 940.6 1419.8 1404.6 15.2 404.7 345.0 49.5 -155.4 20091 3216.4 955.6 1447.1 1431.9 15.2 409.6 354.5 49.5 -153.0 20092 3274.0 970.6 1474.9 1459.7 15.2 414.7 364.3 49.5 -151.8 20093 3332.3 985.5 1503.3 1488.1 15.2 419.7 374.3 49.5 -151.4 20094 3391.4 1000.4 1532.2 1517.0 15.2 424.9 384.4 49.5 -151.5 20101 3451.2 1015.2 1561.7 1546.5 15.2 430.1 394.6 49.5 -151.9 20102 3511.6 1030.0 1591.7 1576.5 15.2 435.4 405.0 49.5 -152.4 20103 3572.8 1044.8 1622.4 1607.2 15.2 440.7 415.3 49.5 -152.8 20104 3634.6 1059.7 1653.6 1638.4 15.2 446.1 425.7 49.5 -153.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1749.6 325.3 63.8 915.6 26.0 376.1 20073 1781.2 333.5 66.0 932.0 26.2 380.7 20074 1812.2 342.1 67.2 948.3 26.4 385.4 20081 1842.5 350.9 68.0 964.1 26.6 390.1 20082 1872.3 359.7 68.6 979.5 26.8 394.9 20083 1901.6 368.4 69.1 994.6 27.0 399.8 20084 1930.6 376.9 69.7 1009.4 27.2 404.7 20091 1959.3 385.4 70.2 1023.9 27.4 409.6 20092 1987.9 393.8 70.8 1038.3 27.6 414.7 20093 2016.5 402.1 71.4 1052.6 27.8 419.7 20094 2045.1 410.4 72.1 1066.8 28.0 424.9 20101 2073.9 418.8 72.9 1081.1 28.2 430.1 20102 2103.0 427.3 73.7 1095.5 28.4 435.4 20103 2132.3 435.8 74.5 1109.9 28.6 440.7 20104 2162.0 444.4 75.3 1124.6 28.8 446.1
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 0.0 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 0.0 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 0.0 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 0.0 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 0.0 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 0.0 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 0.0 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 0.0 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 0.0 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 0.0 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 0.0 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 0.0 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 0.0 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 0.0 -6.0 20072 1742.8 1357.9 352.5 22.5 2.5 12.4 0.0 6.8 20073 1772.7 1383.4 356.7 22.7 2.5 12.4 0.0 8.5 20074 1802.0 1409.0 360.3 22.8 2.5 12.4 0.0 10.2 20081 1831.1 1434.8 363.4 23.0 2.5 12.4 0.0 11.4 20082 1860.4 1460.7 366.6 23.2 2.5 12.4 0.0 11.9 20083 1890.2 1486.8 370.2 23.3 2.5 12.4 0.0 11.5 20084 1920.4 1512.9 374.1 23.5 2.5 12.4 0.0 10.2 20091 1950.9 1538.9 378.4 23.7 2.5 12.4 0.0 8.4 20092 1981.7 1564.9 383.0 23.9 2.5 12.4 0.0 6.2 20093 2012.7 1590.8 387.9 24.0 2.5 12.4 0.0 3.8 20094 2043.8 1616.7 393.0 24.2 2.5 12.4 0.0 1.3 20101 2075.0 1642.5 398.2 24.4 2.5 12.4 0.0 -1.1 20102 2106.3 1668.3 403.5 24.6 2.5 12.4 0.0 -3.3 20103 2137.6 1694.1 408.9 24.8 2.5 12.4 0.0 -5.3 20104 2169.1 1720.0 414.3 25.0 2.5 12.4 0.0 -7.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.8 104.2 108.1 20032 106.1 105.1 92.8 103.4 109.0 20033 106.6 105.7 91.9 104.4 109.8 20034 107.2 106.1 91.1 104.6 110.6 20041 108.2 107.0 90.9 105.9 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.0 107.5 112.5 20043 109.8 108.5 90.4 107.9 113.4 20044 110.7 109.3 90.5 109.1 114.2 20051 111.7 109.9 90.5 109.2 115.2 20052 112.4 110.7 90.4 110.6 116.2 20053 113.4 111.9 89.7 113.1 117.1 20054 114.4 112.8 89.5 113.3 118.4 20061 115.4 113.2 89.3 113.4 119.3 20062 116.3 114.4 89.1 115.8 120.2 20063 117.0 115.1 88.8 116.6 121.2 20064 117.5 114.8 88.2 114.2 122.1 20071 118.8 115.8 87.8 115.6 123.2 20072 119.5 117.0 87.5 118.4 124.1 20073 120.8 118.1 88.3 119.6 125.3 20074 122.1 119.2 89.2 120.7 126.4 20081 123.4 120.3 90.0 121.8 127.6 20082 124.7 121.3 90.8 122.9 128.8 20083 126.0 122.4 91.6 124.0 129.9 20084 127.3 123.5 92.4 125.0 131.0 20091 128.5 124.5 93.2 126.1 132.1 20092 129.7 125.5 93.9 127.1 133.2 20093 130.9 126.5 94.6 128.1 134.2 20094 132.1 127.4 95.3 129.0 135.2 20101 133.2 128.3 96.0 130.0 136.2 20102 134.3 129.2 96.7 130.9 137.1 20103 135.4 130.1 97.4 131.8 138.1 20104 136.5 131.0 98.0 132.7 139.0
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.1 20032 103.2 99.3 111.5 101.2 99.1 109.5 20033 103.6 99.5 112.2 101.4 99.7 110.1 20034 104.6 99.8 114.3 102.2 99.8 110.7 20041 105.7 100.1 117.0 103.5 102.0 112.7 20042 107.0 100.7 119.5 104.8 103.8 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.3 105.2 115.4 20044 108.9 101.7 123.8 106.3 106.9 117.0 20051 110.3 102.8 125.8 107.5 107.5 119.1 20052 111.2 103.4 126.9 108.5 110.0 120.5 20053 112.3 103.8 129.6 109.2 112.8 122.3 20054 113.9 105.0 132.2 110.0 114.0 123.8 20061 114.8 106.0 133.5 110.7 113.6 125.4 20062 115.3 106.8 134.2 112.3 116.3 127.1 20063 115.3 107.3 134.4 113.6 117.7 128.1 20064 115.6 107.8 135.1 113.4 114.8 128.8 20071 115.9 108.3 135.8 114.4 115.1 130.8 20072 115.8 108.4 136.0 115.8 118.5 132.5 20073 116.8 109.4 137.3 117.1 118.9 134.2 20074 117.8 110.5 138.5 118.3 119.4 135.9 20081 118.9 111.5 139.8 119.6 119.8 137.5 20082 119.9 112.5 141.1 120.8 120.2 139.2 20083 121.0 113.5 142.3 122.1 120.7 140.9 20084 122.0 114.4 143.6 123.3 121.1 142.5 20091 123.0 115.4 144.8 124.4 121.6 144.1 20092 124.0 116.3 145.9 125.6 122.1 145.7 20093 125.0 117.2 147.0 126.7 122.5 147.3 20094 125.9 118.1 148.1 127.8 123.0 148.9 20101 126.8 119.0 149.2 128.9 123.4 150.4 20102 127.7 119.8 150.3 129.9 123.9 152.0 20103 128.7 120.6 151.3 130.9 124.3 153.5 20104 129.5 121.4 152.3 131.9 124.8 155.0
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment