US Forecast: January 31, 2008
Forecast Period

2008:1--2010:4 (12 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 30, 2008.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2007:4. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: January 31, 2008, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Finally, beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2007:4.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:4-1993.3  

TRGH          6.0                  5.7       
COG           3.0                  3.6       
JG            0.0                 -0.9       
TRGS          5.0                  6.0       
TRSH          5.0                  6.2       
COS           3.0                  4.0       
JS            0.0                  1.5       
EX            3.0/8.0              5.9
PIM           1.0                  1.4

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. 3.0/8.0 for EX means that the growth rate of EX was taken to be 3.0 percent (at an annual rate) for 2008:1-2008:4 and 8.0 percent (at an annual rate) after that.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates and tax rebates. Will a tax rebate bill be passed? Will the Bush tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This "no-tax-change" case is thus a base case around which experiments can be made. The user can put in his or her own assumptions about the government's tax and rebate policies.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for real GDP for the next four quarters are 3.1, 2.5, 2.7, and 2.6 percent, respectively. The slightly higher growth rate for 2008:1 is due in part to a fairly larage increase in inventory investment. The unemployment rate is between 4.9 and 5.2 percent over the forecast period. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.3, 1.2, 1.3, and 1.3 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 3.3, 4.5, 4.3, and 4.0 percent, respectively. These predicted values are higher than most others are predicting. The model, however, has been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters except for 2007:1, and so the current predictions should be interpreted with some caution. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem this year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be 3.3 percent in 2008:1, 3.8 percent in 2008:2, and then 4.0 percent for the rest of 2008. In other words, the equation is predicting that the Fed will reverse course and begin raising interest rates.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to fall to $50 billion by the end of 2010 (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.)

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to rise to around $800 billion by the end of 2008 (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards. It remains at roughly this level in 2009 and 2010.

Evaluation of the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

It is obvious that the US Model's forecast is much different from what most people are expecting. No recession is forecast, and inflation is predicted to be a problem. Also, this forecast is based on higher interest rates than the Fed is currently setting and on the assumption of no tax rebates or other stimulative fiscal policies. If lower interest rates were used and/or tax rebates, the forecasts of real output and inflation would be even higher. The model could, of course, be completely wrong, but there is nothing in the initial conditions and likely paths of the exogenous variables that suggests there is going to be a recession.

There are many experiments that can be run from this base forecast. These include various fiscal stimulus packages. Tax rebates are best modeled by increasing transfer payments from the federal government to households, variable TRGH. Remember that the timing is important here. If, say, $100 billion is all rebated in the third quarter of 2008, this is an increase at an annual rate of $400 billion in the third quarter.

You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. As noted above, the Fed is currently much more expansive than equation 30 is predictng, and you may want to use lower values of the bill rate (RS).

Regarding inflation, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent throughout the forecast period, which may be low. If you increase PIM, inflation will, of course, be even higher than is currently forecast.

If you think housing prices will fall further, you can decrease PSI5, which will lower PIH relative to PD. This will affect consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3).

Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1380. If you think that the index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

US Forecast Tables: January 31, 2008
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10126.0 1.2 4143.3 1.5 2072.5 3.8 971.4 0.4 20032 10212.7 3.5 4161.3 1.7 2084.1 2.3 1009.8 16.8 20033 10398.7 7.5 4190.7 2.9 2123.0 7.7 1049.6 16.7 20034 10467.0 2.7 4220.2 2.8 2132.4 1.8 1051.4 0.7 20041 10543.6 3.0 4262.9 4.1 2156.7 4.6 1066.2 5.8 20042 10634.2 3.5 4294.6 3.0 2164.9 1.5 1071.3 1.9 20043 10728.7 3.6 4325.2 2.9 2181.4 3.1 1091.5 7.8 20044 10796.4 2.5 4361.1 3.4 2207.5 4.9 1110.1 7.0 20051 10878.4 3.1 4381.3 1.9 2226.8 3.5 1116.0 2.1 20052 10954.1 2.8 4401.3 1.8 2247.1 3.7 1146.3 11.3 20053 11074.3 4.5 4449.1 4.4 2260.9 2.5 1163.5 6.1 20054 11107.2 1.2 4477.5 2.6 2286.8 4.7 1123.8 -13.0 20061 11238.7 4.8 4501.0 2.1 2312.3 4.5 1167.8 16.6 20062 11306.7 2.4 4531.6 2.7 2325.6 2.3 1170.2 0.8 20063 11336.7 1.1 4554.0 2.0 2343.8 3.2 1186.3 5.6 20064 11395.5 2.1 4595.5 3.7 2368.8 4.3 1197.6 3.9 20071 11412.6 0.6 4630.7 3.1 2386.5 3.0 1223.2 8.8 20072 11520.1 3.8 4656.7 2.3 2383.7 -0.5 1228.4 1.7 20073 11658.9 4.9 4689.5 2.8 2396.8 2.2 1241.9 4.5 20074 11677.4 0.6 4708.2 1.6 2408.0 1.9 1254.7 4.2 20081 11765.5 3.1 4745.5 3.2 2427.6 3.3 1272.4 5.8 20082 11838.5 2.5 4781.3 3.1 2447.0 3.2 1288.4 5.1 20083 11916.6 2.7 4816.3 3.0 2464.6 2.9 1302.7 4.5 20084 11994.1 2.6 4851.7 3.0 2480.6 2.6 1316.2 4.2 20091 12089.4 3.2 4887.5 3.0 2495.9 2.5 1329.5 4.1 20092 12174.8 2.9 4923.5 3.0 2510.5 2.4 1342.5 4.0 20093 12255.1 2.7 4959.6 3.0 2524.6 2.3 1355.2 3.8 20094 12332.8 2.6 4995.9 3.0 2538.4 2.2 1367.7 3.7 20101 12409.3 2.5 5032.5 3.0 2552.0 2.2 1380.1 3.7 20102 12485.3 2.5 5069.5 3.0 2565.5 2.1 1392.5 3.6 20103 12561.4 2.5 5106.8 3.0 2579.0 2.1 1405.0 3.6 20104 12638.0 2.5 5144.6 3.0 2592.5 2.1 1417.6 3.6
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20021 386.8 12.6 908.6 -14.6 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 856.8 -20.9 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 879.6 11.1 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 864.6 -6.6 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 414.7 5.4 881.8 8.2 24.3 1510.5 -5.1 20032 426.0 11.4 894.3 5.8 -2.7 1525.9 4.1 20033 453.1 27.9 902.0 3.5 10.5 1540.0 3.7 20034 460.1 6.3 888.8 -5.7 25.0 1603.6 17.6 20041 451.5 -7.3 884.8 -1.8 35.0 1650.9 12.3 20042 483.2 31.2 918.5 16.1 64.9 1710.4 15.2 20043 483.5 0.3 921.9 1.5 60.1 1730.7 4.8 20044 486.5 2.4 927.2 2.3 57.2 1787.6 13.8 20051 495.5 7.6 969.7 19.6 63.4 1796.8 2.1 20052 517.5 19.0 989.1 8.2 10.1 1800.3 0.8 20053 518.9 1.1 1018.7 12.5 5.9 1809.7 2.1 20054 525.3 5.1 1031.6 5.2 53.6 1878.9 16.2 20061 516.3 -6.7 1067.8 14.8 38.4 1910.7 6.9 20062 499.9 -12.1 1082.6 5.6 51.4 1915.0 0.9 20063 454.3 -31.8 1101.8 7.3 53.9 1940.4 5.4 20064 435.4 -15.6 1103.0 0.4 17.4 1948.2 1.6 20071 395.3 -32.1 1112.7 3.6 0.1 1966.8 3.9 20072 395.3 0.0 1129.1 6.0 5.8 1953.3 -2.7 20073 395.9 0.6 1144.6 5.6 30.6 1974.3 4.4 20074 369.8 -23.9 1165.5 7.5 -3.4 1975.9 0.3 20081 374.4 5.1 1181.6 5.6 37.0 1989.3 2.7 20082 380.9 7.2 1202.8 7.4 38.4 2022.2 6.8 20083 389.5 9.3 1217.5 5.0 39.3 2064.8 8.7 20084 397.3 8.2 1234.6 5.7 47.6 2107.1 8.5 20091 405.8 8.9 1256.6 7.3 45.2 2156.0 9.6 20092 414.6 8.9 1277.5 6.8 52.8 2196.0 7.6 20093 422.8 8.2 1297.5 6.4 54.4 2233.4 7.0 20094 430.3 7.3 1316.6 6.0 53.6 2269.8 6.7 20101 437.2 6.6 1333.9 5.3 52.5 2305.3 6.4 20102 443.7 6.1 1349.3 4.7 51.2 2339.9 6.1 20103 449.8 5.7 1363.4 4.2 50.2 2374.1 6.0 20104 455.7 5.3 1376.4 3.9 49.5 2407.9 5.8
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20021 1.5 0.6 4.9 4.2 20022 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.3 20023 1.5 0.9 2.2 1.3 20024 2.2 1.9 -0.2 -2.1 20031 3.2 2.1 4.1 1.9 20032 1.3 0.3 9.2 8.8 20033 2.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 20034 2.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 20041 3.7 2.8 3.7 0.9 20042 3.8 3.5 7.6 4.0 20043 2.3 2.8 4.4 1.5 20044 3.2 3.1 6.7 3.5 20051 3.9 3.7 0.7 -2.8 20052 2.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 20053 3.5 4.0 4.8 0.8 20054 3.5 3.8 3.0 -0.8 20061 3.4 3.0 8.2 5.0 20062 3.5 3.6 -0.4 -3.9 20063 2.4 1.4 0.9 -0.5 20064 1.7 1.0 8.5 7.4 20071 4.3 3.3 8.7 5.3 20072 2.6 2.3 0.5 -1.8 20073 1.0 0.3 5.7 5.4 20074 2.7 1.6 3.4 1.8 20081 3.3 5.2 6.5 1.3 20082 4.5 4.8 6.3 1.4 20083 4.3 4.6 6.0 1.4 20084 4.0 4.3 5.9 1.5 20091 3.8 4.1 5.7 1.5 20092 3.6 4.0 5.6 1.6 20093 3.4 3.8 5.5 1.6 20094 3.3 3.7 5.4 1.6 20101 3.2 3.5 5.3 1.7 20102 3.1 3.4 5.2 1.7 20103 2.9 3.3 5.1 1.7 20104 2.8 3.2 5.0 1.8
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1264.4 -11.1 66.8 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1270.8 2.0 66.4 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1299.3 9.3 68.3 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1312.7 4.2 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1333.9 6.6 73.7 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1372.1 12.0 72.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1373.3 0.3 76.0 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1397.3 7.2 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1422.9 7.5 73.3 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1438.0 4.3 77.3 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1459.1 6.0 72.6 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1485.2 7.3 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1485.1 0.0 74.0 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1489.0 1.0 71.8 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1479.5 -2.5 68.4 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1483.2 1.0 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1508.8 7.1 67.2 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1498.4 -2.7 66.5 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1471.5 -7.0 63.5 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1470.1 -0.4 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1503.1 9.3 65.8 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1478.9 -6.3 62.9 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1459.4 -5.2 70.9 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1458.0 -0.4 70.8 20081 3.3 5.5 6.2 1468.1 2.8 69.3 20082 3.8 5.7 6.3 1478.0 2.7 68.7 20083 4.0 5.8 6.5 1488.4 2.8 68.0 20084 4.0 5.8 6.5 1499.8 3.1 67.7 20091 4.0 5.8 6.6 1511.9 3.3 67.4 20092 4.1 5.9 6.7 1524.5 3.4 67.1 20093 4.2 6.0 6.8 1537.5 3.5 66.8 20094 4.3 6.0 6.9 1551.0 3.6 66.6 20101 4.3 6.1 6.9 1565.1 3.7 66.5 20102 4.3 6.1 7.0 1579.6 3.8 66.4 20103 4.3 6.2 7.0 1594.7 3.9 66.3 20104 4.3 6.2 7.1 1610.2 3.9 66.3
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20021 5.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.5 4.9 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.2 -1.2 4.6 -0.6 1.4 8.3 20024 5.8 -1.1 0.2 1.3 1.0 -0.4 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.5 1.8 1.4 -0.8 0.7 8.5 20032 6.1 2.5 0.8 2.9 -1.2 0.9 9.0 20033 6.1 0.6 -1.9 -0.6 1.3 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 0.6 -0.8 2.7 1.2 2.0 8.5 20041 5.7 -1.2 0.0 5.4 1.0 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.2 8.2 20043 5.4 1.4 -0.1 2.6 2.1 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 -0.1 4.3 1.4 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 1.2 1.3 5.2 2.4 3.1 7.6 20053 5.0 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.1 2.2 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.4 0.5 2.6 1.3 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.1 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.2 7.1 20062 4.7 0.6 0.8 4.4 1.7 2.0 7.0 20063 4.6 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.5 7.0 20064 4.4 2.0 -0.2 4.1 1.4 2.9 6.8 20071 4.5 1.6 -0.7 1.1 1.3 0.4 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 -0.2 6.9 20073 4.7 0.2 1.8 1.3 -0.2 0.3 7.2 20074 4.8 1.2 0.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 7.4 20081 4.9 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.6 7.6 20082 5.0 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.7 7.7 20083 5.1 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.8 7.9 20084 5.1 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 8.0 20091 5.1 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 8.0 20092 5.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 8.0 20093 5.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 8.0 20094 5.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 1.5 1.2 8.0 20101 5.1 0.5 0.9 2.2 1.5 1.2 8.1 20102 5.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 1.5 1.1 8.1 20103 5.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.1 8.2 20104 5.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.1 8.2
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20021 -26.9 415.7 8.8 3.0 3.9 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6694.2 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.6 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -8062.7 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.4 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3700.1 576.5 61.4 1.8 -1.1 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1045.5 558.0 -12.2 1.9 2.6 530.8 -290.3 -61.3 20032 6323.9 543.9 -9.8 2.2 5.1 512.7 -365.5 -27.1 20033 1759.1 591.9 40.3 2.4 7.3 509.9 -451.3 -8.2 20034 7386.8 669.6 63.7 2.3 0.3 495.6 -381.5 15.1 20041 1361.5 781.1 85.2 2.1 1.5 539.3 -411.0 -8.0 20042 954.1 849.3 39.8 2.1 4.6 616.2 -374.1 -1.9 20043 -757.1 906.8 30.0 1.8 3.7 619.3 -361.8 -12.2 20044 6506.7 886.0 -8.9 2.6 -2.6 721.7 -335.5 28.0 20051 -509.9 1093.5 132.1 1.0 1.2 714.4 -298.0 32.1 20052 1695.3 1149.4 22.0 0.8 2.5 710.1 -287.6 25.7 20053 3256.3 1163.2 4.9 -0.6 8.2 674.6 -394.2 5.6 20054 3733.7 1217.5 20.0 0.8 -1.8 840.9 -293.3 -2.4 20061 4136.5 1261.2 15.2 0.9 -1.7 786.3 -219.6 35.6 20062 -495.7 1321.2 20.4 0.3 -0.2 811.8 -239.9 43.1 20063 3202.9 1350.8 9.3 0.0 0.4 850.1 -239.1 12.5 20064 5384.6 1268.0 -22.4 0.4 0.2 728.3 -181.4 7.7 20071 1801.8 1324.7 19.1 1.0 2.4 756.0 -218.7 -6.0 20072 4400.2 1385.1 19.5 0.3 1.8 730.4 -206.6 13.4 20073 1419.3 1365.3 -5.6 0.6 8.0 690.9 -232.6 -12.9 20074 -8000.0 1336.6 -8.1 0.3 -0.2 734.8 -219.7 -37.0 20081 1509.5 1367.7 9.6 0.4 1.1 730.7 -201.8 -38.2 20082 1139.2 1370.8 0.9 0.3 0.9 745.0 -184.0 -38.7 20083 1250.0 1371.4 0.2 0.3 1.3 772.3 -168.1 -39.4 20084 1356.1 1369.7 -0.5 0.3 1.4 800.0 -153.7 -40.3 20091 1431.6 1381.8 3.6 0.4 1.8 814.0 -135.0 -40.1 20092 1323.4 1381.1 -0.2 0.4 1.5 816.2 -119.5 -40.1 20093 1326.2 1376.3 -1.4 0.5 1.5 814.6 -106.1 -40.5 20094 1364.6 1369.8 -1.9 0.5 1.5 811.0 -94.0 -41.0 20101 1399.3 1362.8 -2.0 0.6 1.5 805.4 -82.8 -41.7 20102 1429.0 1355.9 -2.0 0.6 1.6 798.1 -72.3 -42.5 20103 1464.7 1349.2 -1.9 0.7 1.7 789.4 -62.2 -43.3 20104 1505.6 1342.9 -1.8 0.7 1.7 779.4 -52.3 -44.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.6 -7.4 -5.4 935.2 7.3 11.4 20032 37.9 -2.1 -1.7 950.7 6.8 -3.9 20033 0.6 6.2 11.3 958.9 3.5 2.6 20034 6.1 -2.5 20.8 967.2 3.5 0.4 20041 10.0 -2.3 10.0 992.4 10.8 9.0 20042 5.0 1.1 6.5 994.2 0.7 7.3 20043 10.4 -4.3 3.1 999.2 2.0 5.2 20044 -10.5 -2.7 10.0 1011.5 5.0 6.8 20051 4.9 -0.6 6.1 1045.4 14.1 2.3 20052 2.2 2.5 9.5 1057.9 4.9 9.7 20053 16.9 -2.0 2.1 1072.9 5.8 10.4 20054 -12.5 0.9 10.6 1084.1 4.2 4.4 20061 19.4 7.1 11.5 1141.6 23.0 -1.5 20062 -3.0 5.0 5.7 1162.9 7.7 10.1 20063 -1.2 -0.7 5.8 1178.0 5.3 4.7 20064 13.8 1.1 14.3 1194.9 5.9 -9.3 20071 -10.3 5.8 1.1 1229.1 11.9 1.0 20072 11.8 5.7 7.6 1251.5 7.5 12.0 20073 9.9 4.1 19.1 1266.0 4.7 7.5 20074 -0.2 7.0 3.9 1270.1 1.3 12.7 20081 3.0 3.0 3.0 1288.7 6.0 1.0 20082 3.0 3.0 3.0 1307.6 6.0 1.0 20083 3.0 3.0 3.0 1326.8 6.0 1.0 20084 3.0 3.0 3.0 1346.3 6.0 1.0 20091 3.0 3.0 8.0 1366.1 6.0 1.0 20092 3.0 3.0 8.0 1386.1 6.0 1.0 20093 3.0 3.0 8.0 1406.4 6.0 1.0 20094 3.0 3.0 8.0 1427.1 6.0 1.0 20101 3.0 3.0 8.0 1448.0 6.0 1.0 20102 3.0 3.0 8.0 1469.3 6.0 1.0 20103 3.0 3.0 8.0 1490.8 6.0 1.0 20104 3.0 3.0 8.0 1512.7 6.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2580.3 1138.8 370.3 105.0 944.0 20072 2627.1 1151.7 401.3 105.5 946.3 20073 2639.7 1170.1 382.5 108.7 955.6 20074 2662.8 1186.8 376.9 110.1 964.1 20081 2723.0 1220.2 383.0 111.7 983.2 20082 2784.0 1257.2 383.6 113.6 1004.7 20083 2843.1 1293.5 383.7 115.4 1025.5 20084 2900.3 1329.1 383.4 117.2 1045.8 20091 2961.8 1365.8 385.7 118.9 1066.5 20092 3020.0 1402.1 385.6 120.6 1086.8 20093 3076.2 1437.8 384.6 122.2 1106.6 20094 3131.1 1473.0 383.4 123.8 1125.9 20101 3185.1 1507.8 382.0 125.5 1144.9 20102 3238.6 1542.4 380.7 127.0 1163.6 20103 3291.7 1576.8 379.4 128.6 1182.0 20104 3344.8 1611.1 378.2 130.2 1200.4
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -218.7 20072 2833.7 849.8 1251.5 14.9 376.1 291.5 49.9 -206.6 20073 2872.3 867.7 1266.0 22.2 379.1 291.3 46.0 -232.6 20074 2882.5 876.4 1270.1 31.7 380.7 276.8 46.8 -219.7 20081 2924.8 891.1 1288.7 31.7 385.4 281.1 46.8 -201.8 20082 2968.1 906.3 1307.6 31.7 390.1 285.5 46.8 -184.0 20083 3011.1 921.2 1326.8 31.7 394.9 289.7 46.8 -168.1 20084 3054.0 935.8 1346.3 31.7 399.7 293.7 46.8 -153.7 20091 3096.8 950.3 1366.1 31.7 404.6 297.3 46.8 -135.0 20092 3139.5 964.6 1386.1 31.7 409.6 300.7 46.8 -119.5 20093 3182.2 978.8 1406.4 31.7 414.6 303.9 46.8 -106.1 20094 3225.0 992.8 1427.1 31.7 419.7 306.9 46.8 -94.0 20101 3267.9 1006.8 1448.0 31.7 424.9 309.7 46.8 -82.8 20102 3310.9 1020.7 1469.3 31.7 430.1 312.3 46.8 -72.3 20103 3353.9 1034.6 1490.8 31.7 435.4 314.7 46.8 -62.2 20104 3397.1 1048.3 1512.7 31.7 440.7 316.8 46.8 -52.3
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1754.7 325.9 67.4 916.6 25.9 376.1 20073 1755.7 319.1 64.1 924.0 25.9 379.1 20074 1774.6 324.7 63.2 935.7 26.0 380.7 20081 1802.0 332.5 64.2 949.4 26.2 385.4 20082 1831.8 341.2 64.3 965.5 26.4 390.1 20083 1860.6 349.6 64.3 981.0 26.6 394.9 20084 1888.8 357.9 64.2 995.9 26.8 399.7 20091 1917.4 366.3 64.6 1010.5 27.0 404.6 20092 1945.1 374.7 64.6 1024.7 27.2 409.6 20093 1972.4 382.9 64.5 1038.7 27.4 414.6 20094 1999.4 391.0 64.2 1052.5 27.6 419.7 20101 2026.2 399.0 64.0 1066.2 27.8 424.9 20102 2052.8 406.9 63.8 1079.7 28.0 430.1 20103 2079.4 414.8 63.6 1093.2 28.2 435.4 20104 2106.0 422.6 63.4 1106.6 28.4 440.7
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 -6.0 20072 1741.3 1355.9 352.5 23.1 2.6 12.4 13.4 20073 1768.6 1374.3 361.2 23.0 2.7 12.8 -12.9 20074 1811.6 1409.3 368.9 23.1 2.8 13.1 -37.0 20081 1840.2 1432.4 374.3 23.3 2.8 13.1 -38.2 20082 1870.4 1456.9 379.8 23.4 2.8 13.1 -38.7 20083 1900.1 1480.9 385.3 23.6 2.8 13.1 -39.4 20084 1929.1 1504.3 390.7 23.8 2.8 13.1 -40.3 20091 1957.4 1527.5 395.7 24.0 2.8 13.1 -40.1 20092 1985.3 1550.3 400.5 24.1 2.8 13.1 -40.1 20093 2012.9 1572.9 405.4 24.3 2.8 13.1 -40.5 20094 2040.4 1595.3 410.3 24.5 2.8 13.1 -41.0 20101 2067.9 1617.5 415.4 24.7 2.8 13.1 -41.7 20102 2095.3 1639.5 420.6 24.9 2.8 13.1 -42.5 20103 2122.7 1661.4 426.0 25.1 2.8 13.1 -43.3 20104 2150.1 1683.1 431.4 25.2 2.8 13.1 -44.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20021 -79.4 -64.7 102.2 421.0 -208.7 -170.4 20022 -100.3 -14.6 67.8 459.5 -245.5 -166.9 20023 -172.2 30.9 91.9 463.5 -250.1 -163.9 20024 -210.6 84.4 94.0 489.3 -287.8 -169.3 20031 -206.1 30.7 127.0 530.8 -288.1 -194.3 20032 -191.4 68.6 138.1 512.7 -369.2 -158.7 20033 -203.2 164.9 132.8 509.9 -457.4 -147.0 20034 -222.4 126.1 114.8 495.6 -394.8 -119.4 20041 -230.0 141.3 108.3 539.3 -418.0 -140.9 20042 -280.3 84.7 101.0 616.2 -382.6 -139.0 20043 -256.4 129.4 31.4 619.3 -376.3 -147.4 20044 -244.4 -98.4 77.0 721.7 -349.8 -106.1 20051 -392.7 -48.5 140.8 714.4 -310.7 -103.2 20052 -442.7 49.5 98.7 710.1 -301.9 -113.6 20053 -384.6 211.0 23.2 674.6 -406.2 -118.0 20054 -456.4 30.7 37.4 840.9 -310.8 -141.8 20061 -450.8 -112.6 124.7 786.3 -237.0 -110.7 20062 -485.1 -106.6 149.5 811.8 -257.9 -111.7 20063 -453.3 -115.6 111.7 850.1 -252.8 -140.1 20064 -378.9 -158.7 155.8 728.3 -201.0 -145.6 20071 -271.1 -212.0 126.2 756.0 -230.9 -168.3 20072 -339.3 -184.0 167.4 730.4 -219.1 -155.3 20073 -317.3 -118.6 176.2 690.9 -245.4 -185.8 20074 -311.9 -144.5 170.3 734.8 -229.0 -219.7 20081 -304.8 -200.4 208.2 730.7 -211.0 -222.7 20082 -315.8 -225.9 214.6 745.0 -193.0 -225.0 20083 -326.4 -242.5 201.0 772.3 -176.9 -227.6 20084 -334.3 -260.2 187.1 800.0 -162.3 -230.3 20091 -337.2 -259.0 157.5 814.0 -143.4 -231.9 20092 -339.6 -277.9 162.9 816.2 -127.8 -233.9 20093 -341.4 -291.3 168.2 814.6 -114.1 -236.1 20094 -342.4 -301.5 173.4 811.0 -101.8 -238.6 20101 -343.1 -309.1 178.4 805.4 -90.4 -241.2 20102 -343.5 -314.3 183.4 798.1 -79.7 -243.9 20103 -343.5 -317.9 188.2 789.4 -69.4 -246.7 20104 -343.4 -320.3 193.0 779.4 -59.2 -249.4 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10705.5 7548.2 911.5 2159.0 4477.7 20032 10831.8 7628.3 937.3 2155.4 4535.6 20033 11086.0 7782.6 964.4 2216.8 4601.4 20034 11219.5 7855.3 957.4 2229.5 4668.4 20041 11405.6 8010.1 969.6 2284.2 4756.3 20042 11610.4 8134.9 974.8 2327.7 4832.4 20043 11779.3 8245.0 986.9 2353.5 4904.6 20044 11948.4 8393.3 1004.1 2409.3 4979.9 20051 12154.1 8488.8 1009.7 2432.1 5047.0 20052 12317.4 8632.6 1036.0 2484.3 5112.3 20053 12558.7 8810.5 1044.1 2557.0 5209.4 20054 12705.6 8899.4 1005.7 2591.3 5302.4 20061 12964.5 9034.7 1042.6 2622.1 5370.0 20062 13155.0 9183.9 1042.8 2692.2 5448.9 20063 13266.8 9305.7 1053.8 2732.4 5519.5 20064 13392.2 9373.7 1056.5 2705.4 5611.8 20071 13553.7 9540.5 1074.0 2759.4 5707.1 20072 13768.7 9673.9 1074.7 2822.7 5776.5 20073 13970.3 9785.7 1081.6 2846.3 5857.8 20074 14085.5 9927.9 1087.9 2903.7 5936.3 20081 14308.4 10073.6 1097.7 2948.8 6027.1 20082 14554.9 10244.5 1108.9 3002.2 6133.5 20083 14805.3 10408.1 1118.0 3052.6 6237.5 20084 15048.3 10566.5 1125.8 3100.4 6340.3 20091 15308.8 10721.1 1132.9 3146.2 6442.0 20092 15552.8 10872.3 1139.2 3190.6 6542.5 20093 15788.2 11020.8 1144.8 3233.7 6642.2 20094 16017.9 11167.2 1149.8 3276.0 6741.5 20101 16243.8 11312.2 1154.3 3317.5 6840.4 20102 16466.9 11456.0 1158.5 3358.4 6939.1 20103 16688.1 11599.0 1162.4 3399.0 7037.6 20104 16908.1 11741.4 1166.0 3439.3 7136.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1606.3 1583.3 1044.0 539.3 23.0 20032 1617.1 1620.6 1067.4 553.2 -3.5 20033 1690.5 1678.7 1093.3 585.4 11.8 20034 1742.3 1716.4 1104.8 611.6 25.9 20041 1769.6 1732.6 1100.4 632.2 37.0 20042 1875.6 1806.6 1135.5 671.1 69.0 20043 1929.7 1864.7 1172.7 692.0 65.0 20044 1979.5 1916.1 1209.5 706.6 63.4 20051 2029.7 1960.4 1233.1 727.3 69.3 20052 2024.7 2012.5 1255.7 756.8 12.2 20053 2078.5 2072.7 1287.0 785.7 5.8 20054 2176.1 2115.6 1312.6 803.0 60.5 20061 2221.0 2176.7 1367.3 809.4 44.3 20062 2238.9 2179.4 1391.2 788.2 59.5 20063 2224.1 2161.3 1415.2 746.1 62.8 20064 2152.4 2132.4 1417.1 715.3 20.0 20071 2119.0 2118.9 1431.4 687.5 0.1 20072 2139.0 2133.9 1469.1 664.8 5.1 20073 2162.8 2127.4 1500.1 627.3 35.4 20074 2114.4 2118.3 1532.1 586.2 -3.9 20081 2142.9 2099.8 1522.2 577.6 43.1 20082 2186.1 2140.9 1553.0 587.9 45.2 20083 2254.3 2207.6 1585.0 622.6 46.7 20084 2321.3 2264.1 1619.1 645.0 57.1 20091 2396.3 2341.7 1662.4 679.3 54.6 20092 2446.9 2382.6 1690.9 691.7 64.3 20093 2488.1 2421.2 1718.0 703.2 66.9 20094 2523.7 2457.3 1743.8 713.5 66.4 20101 2555.2 2489.8 1767.0 722.8 65.4 20102 2583.6 2519.2 1787.9 731.3 64.4 20103 2609.6 2546.1 1806.9 739.2 63.5 20104 2633.8 2570.8 1824.3 746.5 63.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -499.3 1012.4 1511.7 2050.3 725.9 1324.4 20032 -501.3 1010.8 1512.1 2087.7 762.2 1325.5 20033 -495.2 1040.7 1535.9 2108.1 764.8 1343.3 20034 -501.8 1099.1 1600.9 2123.7 772.8 1350.9 20041 -543.2 1140.9 1684.1 2169.1 806.2 1362.9 20042 -603.0 1172.8 1775.8 2202.9 821.9 1381.0 20043 -632.7 1187.3 1820.0 2237.3 839.4 1397.9 20044 -682.6 1228.6 1911.2 2258.2 835.0 1423.2 20051 -671.1 1260.8 1931.9 2306.7 864.0 1442.7 20052 -679.8 1301.2 1981.0 2339.9 870.4 1469.5 20053 -725.0 1316.0 2041.0 2394.7 896.0 1498.7 20054 -782.3 1359.6 2141.9 2412.4 883.4 1529.0 20061 -763.3 1406.6 2169.9 2472.1 921.5 1550.6 20062 -780.4 1447.4 2227.8 2512.6 926.9 1585.7 20063 -799.1 1484.5 2283.6 2536.1 932.0 1604.1 20064 -705.3 1531.9 2237.2 2571.4 949.7 1621.7 20071 -714.1 1549.9 2264.0 2608.3 946.6 1661.7 20072 -714.2 1598.7 2312.9 2670.0 969.5 1700.5 20073 -694.7 1685.7 2380.4 2716.5 990.3 1726.2 20074 -727.5 1727.1 2454.6 2770.7 997.1 1773.6 20081 -722.5 1754.9 2477.4 2814.4 1013.3 1801.1 20082 -735.8 1788.8 2524.6 2860.1 1029.9 1830.2 20083 -762.1 1822.1 2584.2 2905.1 1046.4 1858.7 20084 -788.9 1854.9 2643.8 2949.4 1062.6 1886.9 20091 -801.9 1909.9 2711.8 2993.3 1078.6 1914.7 20092 -803.1 1965.9 2769.0 3036.7 1094.5 1942.3 20093 -800.5 2022.8 2823.3 3079.9 1110.2 1969.7 20094 -795.9 2080.6 2876.4 3122.9 1125.9 1996.9 20101 -789.2 2139.4 2928.6 3165.6 1141.5 2024.1 20102 -780.9 2199.1 2980.0 3208.2 1157.1 2051.1 20103 -771.1 2260.0 3031.0 3250.6 1172.6 2078.0 20104 -760.0 2321.8 3081.8 3292.9 1188.0 2104.8
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10126.0 7187.2 971.4 2072.5 4143.3 20032 10212.7 7255.2 1009.8 2084.1 4161.3 20033 10398.7 7363.3 1049.6 2123.0 4190.7 20034 10467.0 7404.0 1051.4 2132.4 4220.2 20041 10543.6 7485.8 1066.2 2156.7 4262.9 20042 10634.2 7530.8 1071.3 2164.9 4294.6 20043 10728.7 7598.1 1091.5 2181.4 4325.2 20044 10796.4 7678.7 1110.1 2207.5 4361.1 20051 10878.4 7724.1 1116.0 2226.8 4381.3 20052 10954.1 7794.7 1146.3 2247.1 4401.3 20053 11074.3 7873.5 1163.5 2260.9 4449.1 20054 11107.2 7888.1 1123.8 2286.8 4477.5 20061 11238.7 7981.1 1167.8 2312.3 4501.0 20062 11306.7 8027.4 1170.2 2325.6 4531.6 20063 11336.7 8084.1 1186.3 2343.8 4554.0 20064 11395.5 8161.9 1197.6 2368.8 4595.5 20071 11412.6 8240.4 1223.2 2386.5 4630.7 20072 11520.1 8268.8 1228.4 2383.7 4656.7 20073 11658.9 8328.2 1241.9 2396.8 4689.5 20074 11677.4 8370.9 1254.7 2408.0 4708.2 20081 11765.5 8445.4 1272.4 2427.6 4745.5 20082 11838.5 8516.7 1288.4 2447.0 4781.3 20083 11916.6 8583.6 1302.7 2464.6 4816.3 20084 11994.1 8648.5 1316.2 2480.6 4851.7 20091 12089.4 8712.9 1329.5 2495.9 4887.5 20092 12174.8 8776.5 1342.5 2510.5 4923.5 20093 12255.1 8839.4 1355.2 2524.6 4959.6 20094 12332.8 8901.9 1367.7 2538.4 4995.9 20101 12409.3 8964.6 1380.1 2552.0 5032.5 20102 12485.3 9027.4 1392.5 2565.5 5069.5 20103 12561.4 9090.7 1405.0 2579.0 5106.8 20104 12638.0 9154.7 1417.6 2592.5 5144.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1555.9 1531.6 1047.5 484.1 24.3 20032 1568.0 1570.7 1074.4 496.3 -2.7 20033 1631.0 1620.5 1098.7 521.8 10.5 20034 1666.7 1641.7 1106.5 535.2 25.0 20041 1674.6 1639.6 1099.1 540.5 35.0 20042 1754.1 1689.2 1127.5 561.7 64.9 20043 1788.3 1728.2 1160.7 567.5 60.1 20044 1817.7 1760.5 1189.6 570.9 57.2 20051 1841.2 1777.8 1199.5 578.3 63.4 20052 1820.6 1810.5 1214.1 596.4 10.1 20053 1851.8 1845.9 1239.5 606.4 5.9 20054 1910.8 1857.2 1250.0 607.2 53.6 20061 1934.2 1895.8 1289.7 606.1 38.4 20062 1942.0 1890.6 1303.1 587.5 51.4 20063 1928.3 1874.4 1319.4 555.0 53.9 20064 1861.5 1844.1 1314.7 529.4 17.4 20071 1828.1 1828.0 1321.7 506.3 0.1 20072 1853.1 1847.3 1356.6 490.7 5.8 20073 1881.2 1850.6 1387.3 463.3 30.6 20074 1842.0 1845.4 1412.7 432.7 -3.4 20081 1863.7 1826.7 1400.3 426.4 37.0 20082 1892.8 1854.4 1421.5 432.9 38.4 20083 1941.0 1901.7 1444.2 457.5 39.3 20084 1990.2 1942.6 1469.3 473.3 47.6 20091 2046.3 2001.1 1503.3 497.8 45.2 20092 2083.5 2030.8 1524.2 506.6 52.8 20093 2113.4 2059.0 1544.2 514.8 54.4 20094 2139.3 2085.6 1563.3 522.3 53.6 20101 2162.2 2109.7 1580.6 529.2 52.5 20102 2182.9 2131.7 1596.0 535.7 51.2 20103 2202.1 2151.9 1610.1 541.8 50.2 20104 2220.2 2170.7 1623.1 547.7 49.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -507.2 1003.3 1510.5 1879.3 20032 -526.9 999.0 1525.9 1907.4 20033 -513.8 1026.2 1540.0 1914.4 20034 -527.8 1075.8 1603.6 1917.9 20041 -549.1 1101.8 1650.9 1925.4 20042 -591.0 1119.4 1710.4 1931.8 20043 -602.7 1128.0 1730.7 1939.2 20044 -632.3 1155.3 1787.6 1930.4 20051 -624.4 1172.4 1796.8 1936.7 20052 -601.0 1199.3 1800.3 1942.3 20053 -604.1 1205.6 1809.7 1957.5 20054 -642.5 1236.4 1878.9 1947.9 20061 -640.1 1270.6 1910.7 1971.7 20062 -626.6 1288.4 1915.0 1976.3 20063 -633.8 1306.6 1940.4 1980.0 20064 -597.3 1350.9 1948.2 1997.2 20071 -612.2 1354.6 1966.8 1994.4 20072 -573.8 1379.5 1953.3 2014.5 20073 -533.2 1441.1 1974.3 2033.6 20074 -520.9 1455.0 1975.9 2046.5 20081 -523.5 1465.8 1989.3 2053.0 20082 -545.5 1476.7 2022.2 2059.6 20083 -577.1 1487.6 2064.8 2066.2 20084 -608.4 1498.7 2107.1 2072.9 20091 -628.2 1527.8 2156.0 2079.6 20092 -638.5 1557.4 2196.0 2086.4 20093 -645.7 1587.7 2233.4 2093.2 20094 -651.3 1618.5 2269.8 2100.0 20101 -655.3 1650.0 2305.3 2107.0 20102 -657.9 1682.0 2339.9 2113.9 20103 -659.3 1714.7 2374.1 2121.0 20104 -659.8 1748.0 2407.9 2128.0
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2580.3 1138.8 370.3 105.0 944.0 20072 2627.1 1151.7 401.3 105.5 946.3 20073 2639.7 1170.1 382.5 108.7 955.6 20074 2662.8 1186.8 376.9 110.1 964.1 20081 2723.0 1220.2 383.0 111.7 983.2 20082 2784.0 1257.2 383.6 113.6 1004.7 20083 2843.1 1293.5 383.7 115.4 1025.5 20084 2900.3 1329.1 383.4 117.2 1045.8 20091 2961.8 1365.8 385.7 118.9 1066.5 20092 3020.0 1402.1 385.6 120.6 1086.8 20093 3076.2 1437.8 384.6 122.2 1106.6 20094 3131.1 1473.0 383.4 123.8 1125.9 20101 3185.1 1507.8 382.0 125.5 1144.9 20102 3238.6 1542.4 380.7 127.0 1163.6 20103 3291.7 1576.8 379.4 128.6 1182.0 20104 3344.8 1611.1 378.2 130.2 1200.4
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 955.6 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 968.2 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 977.3 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 981.1 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 1019.5 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 1010.7 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 1016.3 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1027.7 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1077.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1077.4 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1096.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1118.2 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1159.9 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1187.1 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1203.4 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1208.5 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1263.6 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -218.7 20072 2833.7 849.8 1266.4 1251.5 14.9 376.1 291.5 49.9 -206.6 20073 2872.3 867.7 1288.2 1266.0 22.2 379.1 291.3 46.0 -232.6 20074 2882.5 876.4 1301.8 1270.1 31.7 380.7 276.8 46.8 -219.7 20081 2924.8 891.1 1320.4 1288.7 31.7 385.4 281.1 46.8 -201.8 20082 2968.1 906.3 1339.3 1307.6 31.7 390.1 285.5 46.8 -184.0 20083 3011.1 921.2 1358.5 1326.8 31.7 394.9 289.7 46.8 -168.1 20084 3054.0 935.8 1378.0 1346.3 31.7 399.7 293.7 46.8 -153.7 20091 3096.8 950.3 1397.8 1366.1 31.7 404.6 297.3 46.8 -135.0 20092 3139.5 964.6 1417.8 1386.1 31.7 409.6 300.7 46.8 -119.5 20093 3182.2 978.8 1438.1 1406.4 31.7 414.6 303.9 46.8 -106.1 20094 3225.0 992.8 1458.8 1427.1 31.7 419.7 306.9 46.8 -94.0 20101 3267.9 1006.8 1479.7 1448.0 31.7 424.9 309.7 46.8 -82.8 20102 3310.9 1020.7 1501.0 1469.3 31.7 430.1 312.3 46.8 -72.3 20103 3353.9 1034.6 1522.5 1490.8 31.7 435.4 314.7 46.8 -62.2 20104 3397.1 1048.3 1544.4 1512.7 31.7 440.7 316.8 46.8 -52.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1754.7 325.9 67.4 916.6 25.9 376.1 20073 1755.7 319.1 64.1 924.0 25.9 379.1 20074 1774.6 324.7 63.2 935.7 26.0 380.7 20081 1802.0 332.5 64.2 949.4 26.2 385.4 20082 1831.8 341.2 64.3 965.5 26.4 390.1 20083 1860.6 349.6 64.3 981.0 26.6 394.9 20084 1888.8 357.9 64.2 995.9 26.8 399.7 20091 1917.4 366.3 64.6 1010.5 27.0 404.6 20092 1945.1 374.7 64.6 1024.7 27.2 409.6 20093 1972.4 382.9 64.5 1038.7 27.4 414.6 20094 1999.4 391.0 64.2 1052.5 27.6 419.7 20101 2026.2 399.0 64.0 1066.2 27.8 424.9 20102 2052.8 406.9 63.8 1079.7 28.0 430.1 20103 2079.4 414.8 63.6 1093.2 28.2 435.4 20104 2106.0 422.6 63.4 1106.6 28.4 440.7
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 0.0 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 0.0 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 0.0 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 0.0 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 0.0 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 0.0 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 0.0 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 0.0 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 0.0 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 0.0 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 0.0 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 0.0 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 0.0 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 0.0 -6.0 20072 1741.3 1355.9 352.5 23.1 2.6 12.4 0.0 13.4 20073 1768.6 1374.3 361.2 23.0 2.7 12.8 0.0 -12.9 20074 1811.6 1409.3 368.9 23.1 2.8 13.1 0.0 -37.0 20081 1840.2 1432.4 374.3 23.3 2.8 13.1 0.0 -38.2 20082 1870.4 1456.9 379.8 23.4 2.8 13.1 0.0 -38.7 20083 1900.1 1480.9 385.3 23.6 2.8 13.1 0.0 -39.4 20084 1929.1 1504.3 390.7 23.8 2.8 13.1 0.0 -40.3 20091 1957.4 1527.5 395.7 24.0 2.8 13.1 0.0 -40.1 20092 1985.3 1550.3 400.5 24.1 2.8 13.1 0.0 -40.1 20093 2012.9 1572.9 405.4 24.3 2.8 13.1 0.0 -40.5 20094 2040.4 1595.3 410.3 24.5 2.8 13.1 0.0 -41.0 20101 2067.9 1617.5 415.4 24.7 2.8 13.1 0.0 -41.7 20102 2095.3 1639.5 420.6 24.9 2.8 13.1 0.0 -42.5 20103 2122.7 1661.4 426.0 25.1 2.8 13.1 0.0 -43.3 20104 2150.1 1683.1 431.4 25.2 2.8 13.1 0.0 -44.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.8 104.2 108.1 20032 106.1 105.1 92.8 103.4 109.0 20033 106.6 105.7 91.9 104.4 109.8 20034 107.2 106.1 91.1 104.6 110.6 20041 108.2 107.0 90.9 105.9 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.0 107.5 112.5 20043 109.8 108.5 90.4 107.9 113.4 20044 110.7 109.3 90.5 109.1 114.2 20051 111.7 109.9 90.5 109.2 115.2 20052 112.4 110.7 90.4 110.6 116.2 20053 113.4 111.9 89.7 113.1 117.1 20054 114.4 112.8 89.5 113.3 118.4 20061 115.4 113.2 89.3 113.4 119.3 20062 116.3 114.4 89.1 115.8 120.2 20063 117.0 115.1 88.8 116.6 121.2 20064 117.5 114.8 88.2 114.2 122.1 20071 118.8 115.8 87.8 115.6 123.2 20072 119.5 117.0 87.5 118.4 124.0 20073 119.8 117.5 87.1 118.8 124.9 20074 120.6 118.6 86.7 120.6 126.1 20081 121.6 119.3 86.3 121.5 127.0 20082 122.9 120.3 86.1 122.7 128.3 20083 124.2 121.3 85.8 123.9 129.5 20084 125.5 122.2 85.5 125.0 130.7 20091 126.6 123.0 85.2 126.1 131.8 20092 127.7 123.9 84.9 127.1 132.9 20093 128.8 124.7 84.5 128.1 133.9 20094 129.9 125.4 84.1 129.1 134.9 20101 130.9 126.2 83.6 130.0 135.9 20102 131.9 126.9 83.2 130.9 136.9 20103 132.9 127.6 82.7 131.8 137.8 20104 133.8 128.3 82.3 132.7 138.7
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.1 20032 103.2 99.3 111.5 101.2 99.1 109.5 20033 103.6 99.5 112.2 101.4 99.7 110.1 20034 104.6 99.8 114.3 102.2 99.8 110.7 20041 105.7 100.1 117.0 103.5 102.0 112.7 20042 107.0 100.7 119.5 104.8 103.8 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.3 105.2 115.4 20044 108.9 101.7 123.8 106.3 106.9 117.0 20051 110.3 102.8 125.8 107.5 107.5 119.1 20052 111.2 103.4 126.9 108.5 110.0 120.5 20053 112.3 103.8 129.6 109.2 112.8 122.3 20054 113.9 105.0 132.2 110.0 114.0 123.8 20061 114.8 106.0 133.5 110.7 113.6 125.4 20062 115.3 106.8 134.2 112.3 116.3 127.1 20063 115.3 107.3 134.4 113.6 117.7 128.1 20064 115.6 107.8 135.1 113.4 114.8 128.8 20071 115.9 108.3 135.8 114.4 115.1 130.8 20072 115.5 108.3 135.5 115.9 118.4 132.5 20073 115.0 108.1 135.4 117.0 120.6 133.6 20074 114.8 108.5 135.5 118.7 124.2 135.4 20081 115.0 108.7 135.5 119.7 124.5 137.1 20082 115.5 109.2 135.8 121.1 124.8 138.9 20083 116.1 109.7 136.1 122.5 125.2 140.6 20084 116.6 110.2 136.3 123.8 125.5 142.3 20091 117.0 110.6 136.4 125.0 125.8 143.9 20092 117.3 110.9 136.5 126.2 126.1 145.6 20093 117.6 111.3 136.6 127.4 126.4 147.1 20094 117.8 111.5 136.6 128.5 126.7 148.7 20101 118.0 111.8 136.6 129.7 127.0 150.2 20102 118.2 112.0 136.5 130.7 127.4 151.8 20103 118.3 112.2 136.4 131.8 127.7 153.3 20104 118.4 112.4 136.3 132.8 128.0 154.7
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment