US Forecast: April 30, 2008
Forecast Period

2008:2--2010:4 (11 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 30, 2008.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2008:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: April 30, 2008, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once. Finally, beginning with the current version (April 30, 2008), the dummy variable D981 has been dropped from equations 9 and 17, and the dummy variable DD074 has been added to equation 22.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2008:1.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2008:1-1993.3  

TRGH       see below               5.7       
COG           2.0                  3.7       
JG            0.0                 -0.8       
TRGS          5.0                  5.9       
TRSH          4.0                  6.0       
COS           2.0                  3.9       
JS            0.0                  1.4       
EX            3.0/8.0              5.9
PIM           1.0                  1.6

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. 3.0/8.0 for EX means that the growth rate of EX was taken to be 3.0 percent (at an annual rate) for 2008:2-2008:4 and 8.0 percent (at an annual rate) after that. The tax rebate was put in TRGH. TRGH was increased by $50 billion in 2008:2 from its 2008:1 value, and it was also increased by $50 billion in 2008:3 from its 2008:1 value. The value in 2008:4 was taken to be the value in 2008:1, and then from this value as a base TRGH was increased at an annual rate of 6.0 percent from 2009:1 on. The $50 billion number is at a quarterly rate. So the assumption is that the rebate adds $50 billion in each of 2008:2 and 2008:3.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the Bush tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This "no-tax-change" case is thus a base case around which experiments can be made. The user can put in his or her own assumptions about the government's tax and rebate policies.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for real GDP for the next four quarters are 3.2, 3.5, 2.6, and 3.3 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate is between 5.2 and 5.3 percent over the forecast period. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 0.5, 1.2, 1.4, and 1.7 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be 3.3, 4.4, 4.1, and 3.9 percent, respectively. These predicted values are higher than most others are predicting. The model, however, has been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters except for 2007:1, and so the current predictions should be interpreted with some caution. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem this year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be 2.0 percent in 2008:2, 2.7 percent in 2008:3, and then 3.1 percent in 2008:4 and 2009:1. It rises to 3.8 percent by the end of the forecast period. In other words, the equation is predicting that the Fed will reverse course and begin raising interest rates.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to fall to $72 billion by the end of 2010 (on a NIPA basis). (See the predicted values for SGP.) It is high in 2008:2 and 2008:3 because of the tax rebate.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to rise to around $750 billion by the end of 2008 (on a NIPA basis), which is very large by historical standards. It falls slightly to $700 billion by the end of 2010.

Evaluation of the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

It is obvious that the US Model's forecast is different from what many people are expecting. No recession is forecast, and inflation is predicted to be a problem. Also, this forecast is based on higher interest rates than the Fed is currently setting and on the assumption of no other stimulative fiscal policies. If lower interest rates were used and/or further fiscal stimulus was used, the forecasts of real output and inflation would be even higher. The model could, of course, be completely wrong, but there is nothing in the initial conditions and likely paths of the exogenous variables that suggests there is going to be a recession.

There are many experiments that can be run from this base forecast. These include various fiscal stimulus packages. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. As noted above, the Fed is currently much more expansive than equation 30 is predictng, and you may want to use lower values of the bill rate (RS).

Regarding inflation, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent throughout the forecast period, which may be low. If you increase PIM, inflation will, of course, be even higher than is currently forecast.

If you think housing prices will fall further, you can decrease PSI5, which will lower PIH relative to PD. This will affect consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3).

Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1400. If you think that the index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

US Forecast Tables: April 30, 2008
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20021 9977.3 2.7 4069.5 1.8 2026.7 3.3 948.4 -4.2 20022 10031.6 2.2 4095.7 2.6 2033.4 1.3 956.9 3.6 20023 10090.7 2.4 4109.0 1.3 2035.0 0.3 983.4 11.5 20024 10095.8 0.2 4127.5 1.8 2053.1 3.6 970.4 -5.2 20031 10126.0 1.2 4143.3 1.5 2072.5 3.8 971.4 0.4 20032 10212.7 3.5 4161.3 1.7 2084.1 2.3 1009.8 16.8 20033 10398.7 7.5 4190.7 2.9 2123.0 7.7 1049.6 16.7 20034 10467.0 2.7 4220.2 2.8 2132.4 1.8 1051.4 0.7 20041 10543.6 3.0 4262.9 4.1 2156.7 4.6 1066.2 5.8 20042 10634.2 3.5 4294.6 3.0 2164.9 1.5 1071.3 1.9 20043 10728.7 3.6 4325.2 2.9 2181.4 3.1 1091.5 7.8 20044 10796.4 2.5 4361.1 3.4 2207.5 4.9 1110.1 7.0 20051 10878.4 3.1 4381.3 1.9 2226.8 3.5 1116.0 2.1 20052 10954.1 2.8 4401.3 1.8 2247.1 3.7 1146.3 11.3 20053 11074.3 4.5 4449.1 4.4 2260.9 2.5 1163.5 6.1 20054 11107.2 1.2 4477.5 2.6 2286.8 4.7 1123.8 -13.0 20061 11238.7 4.8 4501.0 2.1 2312.3 4.5 1167.8 16.6 20062 11306.7 2.4 4531.6 2.7 2325.6 2.3 1170.2 0.8 20063 11336.7 1.1 4554.0 2.0 2343.8 3.2 1186.3 5.6 20064 11395.5 2.1 4595.5 3.7 2368.8 4.3 1197.6 3.9 20071 11412.6 0.6 4630.7 3.1 2386.5 3.0 1223.2 8.8 20072 11520.1 3.8 4656.7 2.3 2383.7 -0.5 1228.4 1.7 20073 11658.9 4.9 4689.5 2.8 2396.8 2.2 1241.9 4.5 20074 11675.7 0.6 4722.4 2.8 2404.1 1.2 1248.1 2.0 20081 11693.1 0.6 4762.2 3.4 2396.3 -1.3 1228.7 -6.1 20082 11784.6 3.2 4808.8 4.0 2421.3 4.2 1264.4 12.1 20083 11887.6 3.5 4850.9 3.6 2447.8 4.5 1293.8 9.6 20084 11965.4 2.6 4878.2 2.3 2465.6 2.9 1304.1 3.2 20091 12062.0 3.3 4907.5 2.4 2480.9 2.5 1315.2 3.4 20092 12146.5 2.8 4938.4 2.5 2495.4 2.4 1327.0 3.6 20093 12227.1 2.7 4970.1 2.6 2509.3 2.2 1339.0 3.7 20094 12306.0 2.6 5002.5 2.6 2522.7 2.2 1351.1 3.6 20101 12383.4 2.5 5035.7 2.7 2535.8 2.1 1363.1 3.6 20102 12460.1 2.5 5069.7 2.7 2548.7 2.1 1375.3 3.6 20103 12536.3 2.5 5104.5 2.8 2561.5 2.0 1387.6 3.6 20104 12612.6 2.5 5140.0 2.8 2574.4 2.0 1400.0 3.6
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20021 386.8 12.6 908.6 -14.6 -10.2 1434.0 11.7 20022 399.2 13.4 856.8 -20.9 2.6 1476.9 12.5 20023 400.0 0.8 879.6 11.1 28.0 1497.4 5.7 20024 409.2 9.6 864.6 -6.6 29.5 1530.2 9.1 20031 414.7 5.4 881.8 8.2 24.3 1510.5 -5.1 20032 426.0 11.4 894.3 5.8 -2.7 1525.9 4.1 20033 453.1 27.9 902.0 3.5 10.5 1540.0 3.7 20034 460.1 6.3 888.8 -5.7 25.0 1603.6 17.6 20041 451.5 -7.3 884.8 -1.8 35.0 1650.9 12.3 20042 483.2 31.2 918.5 16.1 64.9 1710.4 15.2 20043 483.5 0.3 921.9 1.5 60.1 1730.7 4.8 20044 486.5 2.4 927.2 2.3 57.2 1787.6 13.8 20051 495.5 7.6 969.7 19.6 63.4 1796.8 2.1 20052 517.5 19.0 989.1 8.2 10.1 1800.3 0.8 20053 518.9 1.1 1018.7 12.5 5.9 1809.7 2.1 20054 525.3 5.1 1031.6 5.2 53.6 1878.9 16.2 20061 516.3 -6.7 1067.8 14.8 38.4 1910.7 6.9 20062 499.9 -12.1 1082.6 5.6 51.4 1915.0 0.9 20063 454.3 -31.8 1101.8 7.3 53.9 1940.4 5.4 20064 435.4 -15.6 1103.0 0.4 17.4 1948.2 1.6 20071 395.3 -32.1 1112.7 3.6 0.1 1966.8 3.9 20072 395.3 0.0 1129.1 6.0 5.8 1953.3 -2.7 20073 395.9 0.6 1143.2 5.1 30.6 1974.3 4.4 20074 346.0 -41.7 1166.0 8.2 -18.3 1967.3 -1.4 20081 320.2 -26.6 1158.5 -2.5 1.8 1979.7 2.5 20082 335.8 20.9 1178.9 7.2 11.0 1999.9 4.1 20083 354.6 24.4 1196.5 6.1 18.9 2050.7 10.6 20084 352.7 -2.1 1209.3 4.3 43.9 2083.9 6.6 20091 358.1 6.2 1231.9 7.7 45.9 2126.7 8.5 20092 368.1 11.7 1255.1 7.8 53.7 2162.9 7.0 20093 380.3 14.0 1276.3 6.9 55.7 2198.3 6.7 20094 392.9 13.9 1297.3 6.8 55.2 2234.2 6.7 20101 404.9 12.8 1316.3 6.0 54.4 2269.7 6.5 20102 416.1 11.5 1333.7 5.4 53.5 2304.8 6.3 20103 426.5 10.4 1349.7 4.9 52.4 2339.5 6.2 20104 436.2 9.4 1364.5 4.5 51.6 2374.0 6.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20021 1.5 0.6 4.9 4.2 20022 1.4 2.1 1.8 -0.3 20023 1.5 0.9 2.2 1.3 20024 2.2 1.9 -0.2 -2.1 20031 3.2 2.1 4.1 1.9 20032 1.3 0.3 9.2 8.8 20033 2.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 20034 2.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 20041 3.7 2.8 3.7 0.9 20042 3.8 3.5 7.6 4.0 20043 2.3 2.8 4.4 1.5 20044 3.2 3.1 6.7 3.5 20051 3.9 3.7 0.7 -2.8 20052 2.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 20053 3.5 4.0 4.8 0.8 20054 3.5 3.8 3.0 -0.8 20061 3.4 3.0 8.2 5.0 20062 3.5 3.6 -0.4 -3.9 20063 2.4 1.4 0.9 -0.5 20064 1.7 1.0 8.5 7.4 20071 4.3 3.3 8.7 5.3 20072 2.6 2.3 0.5 -1.8 20073 1.0 0.3 4.8 4.5 20074 2.6 1.9 4.0 2.1 20081 2.5 2.4 5.6 3.1 20082 3.4 5.5 6.7 1.2 20083 4.4 5.1 6.5 1.3 20084 4.1 4.8 6.3 1.4 20091 3.9 4.6 6.1 1.4 20092 3.7 4.4 5.9 1.4 20093 3.6 4.3 5.8 1.5 20094 3.4 4.1 5.7 1.5 20101 3.3 3.9 5.6 1.6 20102 3.1 3.8 5.4 1.6 20103 3.0 3.6 5.3 1.6 20104 2.8 3.5 5.2 1.7
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20021 1.8 6.6 7.0 1264.4 -11.1 66.8 20022 1.7 6.7 6.8 1270.8 2.0 66.4 20023 1.6 6.3 6.3 1299.3 9.3 68.3 20024 1.3 6.3 6.1 1312.7 4.2 70.3 20031 1.2 6.0 5.8 1333.9 6.6 73.7 20032 1.0 5.3 5.5 1372.1 12.0 72.6 20033 0.9 5.7 6.0 1373.3 0.3 76.0 20034 0.9 5.7 5.9 1397.3 7.2 71.0 20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1422.9 7.5 73.3 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1438.0 4.3 77.3 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1459.1 6.0 72.6 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1485.2 7.3 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1485.1 0.0 74.0 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1489.0 1.0 71.8 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1479.5 -2.5 68.4 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1483.2 1.0 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1508.8 7.1 67.2 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1498.4 -2.7 66.5 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1473.3 -6.5 63.5 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1470.1 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1503.1 9.3 65.8 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1478.9 -6.3 62.9 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1456.9 -5.8 70.9 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1469.3 3.5 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1475.6 1.7 27.4 20082 2.0 5.5 5.7 1487.4 3.2 24.3 20083 2.7 5.6 5.8 1498.3 3.0 23.5 20084 3.1 5.6 5.9 1509.1 2.9 23.0 20091 3.1 5.6 6.0 1520.6 3.1 22.7 20092 3.2 5.6 6.0 1532.7 3.2 22.5 20093 3.4 5.6 6.1 1545.1 3.3 22.3 20094 3.5 5.6 6.2 1557.9 3.3 22.0 20101 3.6 5.7 6.3 1571.0 3.4 21.8 20102 3.7 5.7 6.4 1584.7 3.5 21.7 20103 3.7 5.7 6.4 1598.9 3.6 21.6 20104 3.8 5.8 6.5 1613.5 3.7 21.5
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20021 5.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 -3.1 -0.3 8.2 20022 5.8 0.3 -0.5 4.9 0.0 0.8 8.5 20023 5.7 -0.2 -1.2 4.6 -0.6 1.4 8.3 20024 5.8 -1.1 0.2 1.3 1.0 -0.4 8.5 20031 5.9 -0.5 1.8 1.4 -0.8 0.7 8.5 20032 6.1 2.5 0.8 2.9 -1.2 0.9 9.0 20033 6.1 0.6 -1.9 -0.6 1.3 -0.3 8.9 20034 5.8 0.6 -0.8 2.7 1.2 2.0 8.5 20041 5.7 -1.2 0.0 5.4 1.0 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.2 8.2 20043 5.4 1.4 -0.1 2.6 2.1 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 -0.1 4.3 1.4 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 1.2 1.3 5.2 2.4 3.1 7.6 20053 5.0 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.1 2.2 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.4 0.5 2.6 1.3 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.1 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.2 7.1 20062 4.7 0.6 0.8 4.4 1.7 2.0 7.0 20063 4.6 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.5 7.0 20064 4.4 2.0 -0.2 4.1 1.4 2.9 6.8 20071 4.5 1.6 -0.7 1.1 1.3 0.4 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 -0.2 6.9 20073 4.7 0.2 1.8 1.3 -0.2 0.3 7.2 20074 4.8 1.2 0.0 2.5 0.4 0.7 7.4 20081 4.9 -2.2 -0.2 2.8 -0.4 -0.6 7.6 20082 5.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.0 20083 5.3 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 8.2 20084 5.3 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.4 1.0 8.2 20091 5.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 8.2 20092 5.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.3 8.2 20093 5.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.3 8.2 20094 5.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 8.1 20101 5.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 8.2 20102 5.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.6 1.2 8.2 20103 5.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.5 1.2 8.3 20104 5.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.5 1.2 8.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20021 57.4 415.7 8.8 3.0 3.9 421.0 -208.5 -35.3 20022 -6579.4 464.1 55.4 2.9 1.6 459.5 -241.5 -35.3 20023 -7973.4 511.5 47.5 2.0 4.4 463.5 -247.2 -31.4 20024 3743.2 576.5 61.4 1.8 -1.1 489.3 -294.7 -35.0 20031 -1027.6 558.0 -12.2 1.9 2.6 530.8 -290.3 -61.3 20032 6303.0 543.9 -9.8 2.2 5.1 512.7 -365.5 -27.1 20033 1610.8 591.9 40.3 2.4 7.3 509.9 -451.3 -8.2 20034 7317.6 669.6 63.7 2.3 0.3 495.6 -381.5 15.1 20041 1393.7 781.1 85.2 2.1 1.5 539.3 -411.0 -8.0 20042 1032.2 849.3 39.8 2.1 4.6 616.2 -374.1 -1.9 20043 -783.4 906.8 30.0 1.8 3.7 619.3 -361.8 -12.2 20044 6455.2 886.0 -8.9 2.6 -2.6 721.7 -335.5 28.0 20051 -526.8 1093.5 132.1 1.0 1.2 714.4 -298.0 32.1 20052 1697.7 1149.4 22.0 0.8 2.5 710.1 -287.6 25.7 20053 3296.6 1163.2 4.9 -0.6 8.2 674.6 -394.2 5.6 20054 3777.9 1217.5 20.0 0.8 -1.8 840.9 -293.3 -2.4 20061 4157.8 1261.2 15.2 0.9 -1.7 786.3 -219.6 35.6 20062 -487.2 1321.2 20.4 0.3 -0.2 811.8 -239.9 43.1 20063 3132.0 1350.8 9.3 0.0 0.4 850.1 -239.1 12.5 20064 5440.9 1268.0 -22.4 0.4 0.2 728.3 -181.4 7.7 20071 1604.1 1324.7 19.1 1.0 2.4 756.0 -218.7 -6.0 20072 4460.0 1386.7 20.0 0.3 1.7 730.4 -206.6 13.4 20073 1268.0 1365.2 -6.0 0.5 7.8 690.9 -230.3 -12.9 20074 -1614.5 1446.0 25.8 0.0 1.6 665.6 -226.6 -41.9 20081 -6000.0 1288.8 -36.9 0.2 1.5 701.7 -317.2 -60.9 20082 2696.5 1489.3 78.3 1.5 1.8 703.0 -454.5 -45.4 20083 1272.1 1502.4 3.6 1.1 1.7 739.3 -414.4 -32.2 20084 1250.1 1482.8 -5.1 -0.9 0.9 753.7 -180.3 -23.9 20091 1482.6 1479.2 -1.0 -0.7 1.4 757.9 -160.2 -13.8 20092 1357.2 1461.8 -4.6 -0.5 1.1 753.0 -143.9 -3.6 20093 1299.0 1442.7 -5.1 -0.4 1.1 746.4 -129.3 6.6 20094 1311.9 1423.4 -5.3 -0.2 1.2 739.6 -115.9 16.9 20101 1352.7 1403.8 -5.4 -0.1 1.3 731.7 -103.7 27.1 20102 1385.3 1384.4 -5.4 0.0 1.4 722.5 -92.5 37.4 20103 1410.4 1365.1 -5.5 0.0 1.5 712.0 -82.1 47.8 20104 1441.0 1345.9 -5.5 0.1 1.6 700.5 -72.4 58.3
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20021 7.5 7.4 5.2 882.8 14.1 -1.7 20022 23.5 0.2 10.5 909.3 12.6 10.3 20023 3.6 3.8 2.9 913.6 1.9 3.5 20024 19.6 3.6 -3.1 918.9 2.3 0.6 20031 -4.6 -7.4 -5.4 935.2 7.3 11.4 20032 37.9 -2.1 -1.7 950.7 6.8 -3.9 20033 0.6 6.2 11.3 958.9 3.5 2.6 20034 6.1 -2.5 20.8 967.2 3.5 0.4 20041 10.0 -2.3 10.0 992.4 10.8 9.0 20042 5.0 1.1 6.5 994.2 0.7 7.3 20043 10.4 -4.3 3.1 999.2 2.0 5.2 20044 -10.5 -2.7 10.0 1011.5 5.0 6.8 20051 4.9 -0.6 6.1 1045.4 14.1 2.3 20052 2.2 2.5 9.5 1057.9 4.9 9.7 20053 16.9 -2.0 2.1 1072.9 5.8 10.4 20054 -12.5 0.9 10.6 1084.1 4.2 4.4 20061 19.4 7.1 11.5 1141.6 23.0 -1.5 20062 -3.0 5.0 5.7 1162.9 7.7 10.1 20063 -1.2 -0.7 5.8 1178.0 5.3 4.7 20064 13.8 1.1 14.3 1194.9 5.9 -9.3 20071 -10.3 5.8 1.1 1229.1 11.9 1.0 20072 11.8 5.7 7.6 1251.5 7.5 12.0 20073 9.9 4.1 19.1 1266.0 4.7 7.5 20074 0.0 4.4 6.5 1271.0 1.6 13.2 20081 5.3 -1.8 5.5 1299.5 9.3 12.7 20082 2.0 2.0 3.0 1499.5 77.3 1.0 20083 2.0 2.0 3.0 1499.5 0.0 1.0 20084 2.0 2.0 3.0 1299.5 -43.6 1.0 20091 2.0 2.0 8.0 1318.6 6.0 1.0 20092 2.0 2.0 8.0 1337.9 6.0 1.0 20093 2.0 2.0 8.0 1357.5 6.0 1.0 20094 2.0 2.0 8.0 1377.5 6.0 1.0 20101 2.0 2.0 8.0 1397.7 6.0 1.0 20102 2.0 2.0 8.0 1418.2 6.0 1.0 20103 2.0 2.0 8.0 1439.0 6.0 1.0 20104 2.0 2.0 8.0 1460.1 6.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2580.3 1138.8 370.3 105.0 944.0 20072 2627.1 1151.7 401.3 105.5 946.3 20073 2642.0 1170.7 382.5 108.7 957.3 20074 2655.5 1187.2 369.1 109.7 964.6 20081 2644.2 1180.9 339.8 112.0 985.2 20082 2732.8 1211.5 377.2 114.2 1003.6 20083 2799.8 1250.0 379.6 116.5 1027.4 20084 2857.6 1286.9 376.0 118.3 1050.1 20091 2919.7 1324.8 375.3 120.0 1073.4 20092 2978.1 1362.2 372.0 121.7 1095.9 20093 3034.8 1398.8 368.5 123.4 1117.8 20094 3090.3 1434.9 364.9 125.0 1139.2 20101 3144.6 1470.4 361.2 126.7 1160.0 20102 3198.0 1505.5 357.6 128.3 1180.3 20103 3250.6 1540.1 354.0 130.0 1200.3 20104 3302.6 1574.4 350.4 131.6 1219.9
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20021 2025.0 571.3 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -218.7 20072 2833.7 849.8 1251.5 14.9 376.1 291.5 49.9 -206.6 20073 2872.3 867.7 1266.0 22.2 379.1 291.3 46.0 -230.3 20074 2882.1 876.9 1271.0 29.2 380.7 276.8 47.5 -226.6 20081 2961.4 901.1 1299.5 33.8 381.4 296.4 49.2 -317.2 20082 3187.3 914.9 1499.5 33.8 386.1 303.8 49.2 -454.5 20083 3214.3 929.8 1499.5 33.8 390.8 311.1 49.2 -414.4 20084 3037.8 944.2 1299.5 33.8 395.6 315.5 49.2 -180.3 20091 3080.0 958.4 1318.6 33.8 400.5 319.6 49.2 -160.2 20092 3122.0 972.3 1337.9 33.8 405.4 323.4 49.2 -143.9 20093 3164.1 986.1 1357.5 33.8 410.4 327.1 49.2 -129.3 20094 3206.2 999.7 1377.5 33.8 415.4 330.6 49.2 -115.9 20101 3248.3 1013.2 1397.7 33.8 420.5 334.0 49.2 -103.7 20102 3290.5 1026.5 1418.2 33.8 425.7 337.2 49.2 -92.5 20103 3332.7 1039.6 1439.0 33.8 430.9 340.3 49.2 -82.1 20104 3375.0 1052.5 1460.1 33.8 436.2 343.2 49.2 -72.4
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1754.7 325.9 67.4 916.6 25.9 376.1 20073 1755.7 319.1 64.1 924.0 25.9 379.1 20074 1767.3 320.9 61.7 933.7 26.0 380.7 20081 1783.2 329.5 56.8 943.4 26.2 381.4 20082 1820.2 337.1 63.1 961.7 26.4 386.1 20083 1854.6 346.5 63.5 981.3 26.6 390.8 20084 1882.8 355.6 62.8 996.1 26.8 395.6 20091 1911.5 364.8 62.7 1010.6 27.0 400.5 20092 1939.6 374.0 62.2 1025.0 27.2 405.4 20093 1967.3 382.9 61.6 1039.2 27.4 410.4 20094 1994.8 391.7 61.0 1053.3 27.6 415.4 20101 2022.0 400.3 60.4 1067.2 27.8 420.5 20102 2049.1 408.8 59.8 1081.0 28.0 425.7 20103 2076.1 417.1 59.2 1094.8 28.2 430.9 20104 2103.0 425.4 58.6 1108.5 28.4 436.2
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 -6.0 20072 1741.3 1355.9 352.5 23.1 2.6 12.4 13.4 20073 1768.6 1374.3 361.2 23.0 2.7 12.8 -12.9 20074 1809.2 1406.4 368.9 23.6 2.8 13.1 -41.9 20081 1844.1 1443.2 366.9 23.5 3.1 13.6 -60.9 20082 1865.6 1458.4 373.0 23.7 3.1 13.6 -45.4 20083 1886.9 1474.5 378.0 23.8 3.1 13.6 -32.2 20084 1906.7 1489.8 382.3 24.0 3.1 13.6 -23.9 20091 1925.3 1504.5 386.1 24.2 3.1 13.6 -13.8 20092 1943.2 1518.7 389.6 24.4 3.1 13.6 -3.6 20093 1960.7 1532.5 393.2 24.6 3.1 13.6 6.6 20094 1977.9 1545.8 396.9 24.7 3.1 13.6 16.9 20101 1994.9 1558.8 400.7 24.9 3.1 13.6 27.1 20102 2011.7 1571.3 404.8 25.1 3.1 13.6 37.4 20103 2028.3 1583.5 409.0 25.3 3.1 13.6 47.8 20104 2044.6 1595.3 413.3 25.5 3.1 13.6 58.3
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20021 -79.4 -64.7 102.2 421.0 -208.7 -170.4 20022 -100.3 -14.6 67.8 459.5 -245.5 -166.9 20023 -172.2 30.9 91.9 463.5 -250.1 -163.9 20024 -210.6 84.4 94.0 489.3 -287.8 -169.3 20031 -206.1 30.7 127.0 530.8 -288.1 -194.3 20032 -191.4 68.6 138.1 512.7 -369.2 -158.7 20033 -203.2 164.9 132.8 509.9 -457.4 -147.0 20034 -222.4 126.1 114.8 495.6 -394.8 -119.4 20041 -230.0 141.3 108.3 539.3 -418.0 -140.9 20042 -280.3 84.7 101.0 616.2 -382.6 -139.0 20043 -256.4 129.4 31.4 619.3 -376.3 -147.4 20044 -244.4 -98.4 77.0 721.7 -349.8 -106.1 20051 -392.7 -48.5 140.8 714.4 -310.7 -103.2 20052 -442.7 49.5 98.7 710.1 -301.9 -113.6 20053 -384.6 211.0 23.2 674.6 -406.2 -118.0 20054 -456.4 30.7 37.4 840.9 -310.8 -141.8 20061 -450.8 -112.6 124.7 786.3 -237.0 -110.7 20062 -485.1 -106.6 149.5 811.8 -257.9 -111.7 20063 -453.3 -115.6 111.7 850.1 -252.8 -140.1 20064 -378.9 -158.7 155.8 728.3 -201.0 -145.6 20071 -271.1 -212.0 126.2 756.0 -230.9 -168.3 20072 -339.3 -184.6 167.9 730.4 -219.1 -155.3 20073 -329.6 -106.7 174.2 690.9 -243.0 -185.8 20074 -304.5 -56.6 155.0 665.6 -239.7 -219.8 20081 -241.7 -49.9 154.1 701.7 -330.5 -233.7 20082 -117.4 -91.5 193.5 703.0 -467.7 -219.8 20083 -186.6 -106.1 189.1 739.3 -427.4 -208.4 20084 -384.6 -160.7 186.4 753.7 -193.1 -201.7 20091 -368.3 -181.2 157.8 757.9 -172.9 -193.3 20092 -360.8 -214.5 163.6 753.0 -156.4 -184.9 20093 -358.2 -239.5 169.2 746.4 -141.6 -176.4 20094 -357.1 -261.3 174.8 739.6 -128.0 -167.9 20101 -356.6 -280.1 180.1 731.7 -115.7 -159.5 20102 -356.1 -296.5 185.4 722.5 -104.2 -150.9 20103 -355.6 -311.0 190.5 712.0 -93.6 -142.3 20104 -354.8 -323.9 195.5 700.5 -83.7 -133.6 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 10333.4 7230.3 915.2 2044.9 4270.2 20022 10426.6 7323.0 918.9 2078.9 4325.2 20023 10527.4 7396.6 940.1 2085.1 4371.4 20024 10591.0 7453.0 921.5 2109.7 4421.8 20031 10705.5 7548.2 911.5 2159.0 4477.7 20032 10831.8 7628.3 937.3 2155.4 4535.6 20033 11086.0 7782.6 964.4 2216.8 4601.4 20034 11219.5 7855.3 957.4 2229.5 4668.4 20041 11405.6 8010.1 969.6 2284.2 4756.3 20042 11610.4 8134.9 974.8 2327.7 4832.4 20043 11779.3 8245.0 986.9 2353.5 4904.6 20044 11948.4 8393.3 1004.1 2409.3 4979.9 20051 12154.1 8488.8 1009.7 2432.1 5047.0 20052 12317.4 8632.6 1036.0 2484.3 5112.3 20053 12558.7 8810.5 1044.1 2557.0 5209.4 20054 12705.6 8899.4 1005.7 2591.3 5302.4 20061 12964.5 9034.7 1042.6 2622.1 5370.0 20062 13155.0 9183.9 1042.8 2692.2 5448.9 20063 13266.8 9305.7 1053.8 2732.4 5519.5 20064 13392.2 9373.7 1056.5 2705.4 5611.8 20071 13553.7 9540.5 1074.0 2759.4 5707.1 20072 13770.3 9673.9 1074.7 2822.7 5776.5 20073 13970.3 9785.7 1081.6 2846.3 5857.8 20074 14080.4 9936.7 1082.5 2904.5 5949.7 20081 14189.2 10046.9 1065.1 2941.6 6040.2 20082 14421.8 10241.4 1091.9 2997.8 6151.7 20083 14705.1 10450.8 1115.4 3063.2 6272.2 20084 14952.4 10608.2 1121.6 3116.2 6370.4 20091 15218.4 10762.3 1127.8 3165.2 6469.3 20092 15465.2 10915.4 1134.1 3212.4 6568.8 20093 15704.6 11066.9 1140.2 3258.4 6668.4 20094 15938.8 11216.8 1145.8 3303.1 6767.9 20101 16168.1 11365.3 1151.0 3346.9 6867.4 20102 16393.2 11512.8 1155.9 3389.8 6967.1 20103 16614.8 11659.2 1160.4 3432.1 7066.7 20104 16833.3 11804.9 1164.6 3473.9 7166.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1564.1 1572.4 1085.2 487.2 -8.3 20022 1571.4 1568.8 1067.8 501.0 2.6 20023 1592.8 1566.8 1061.4 505.4 26.0 20024 1600.1 1572.8 1050.7 522.1 27.3 20031 1606.3 1583.3 1044.0 539.3 23.0 20032 1617.1 1620.6 1067.4 553.2 -3.5 20033 1690.5 1678.7 1093.3 585.4 11.8 20034 1742.3 1716.4 1104.8 611.6 25.9 20041 1769.6 1732.6 1100.4 632.2 37.0 20042 1875.6 1806.6 1135.5 671.1 69.0 20043 1929.7 1864.7 1172.7 692.0 65.0 20044 1979.5 1916.1 1209.5 706.6 63.4 20051 2029.7 1960.4 1233.1 727.3 69.3 20052 2024.7 2012.5 1255.7 756.8 12.2 20053 2078.5 2072.7 1287.0 785.7 5.8 20054 2176.1 2115.6 1312.6 803.0 60.5 20061 2221.0 2176.7 1367.3 809.4 44.3 20062 2238.9 2179.4 1391.2 788.2 59.5 20063 2224.1 2161.3 1415.2 746.1 62.8 20064 2152.4 2132.4 1417.1 715.3 20.0 20071 2119.0 2118.9 1431.4 687.5 0.1 20072 2140.6 2133.9 1469.1 664.8 6.7 20073 2162.8 2127.4 1500.1 627.3 35.4 20074 2088.2 2109.4 1526.5 582.9 -21.2 20081 2054.8 2052.7 1516.3 536.4 2.1 20082 2058.3 2045.4 1520.5 525.0 12.8 20083 2130.6 2108.3 1548.4 559.9 22.3 20084 2198.1 2145.7 1578.9 566.8 52.3 20091 2278.3 2223.0 1624.1 598.9 55.3 20092 2331.8 2266.6 1656.5 610.2 65.2 20093 2378.3 2310.1 1686.1 624.1 68.1 20094 2421.4 2353.2 1715.2 638.1 68.2 20101 2460.4 2392.6 1741.7 651.0 67.7 20102 2495.4 2428.4 1765.9 662.5 67.0 20103 2527.2 2460.9 1788.2 672.8 66.2 20104 2555.9 2490.3 1808.6 681.7 65.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20021 -373.1 976.4 1349.5 1912.1 654.9 1257.2 20022 -416.1 1008.2 1424.3 1948.3 675.2 1273.1 20023 -433.8 1022.9 1456.7 1971.8 682.0 1289.8 20024 -474.6 1016.2 1490.8 2012.5 706.6 1305.9 20031 -499.3 1012.4 1511.7 2050.3 725.9 1324.4 20032 -501.3 1010.8 1512.1 2087.7 762.2 1325.5 20033 -495.2 1040.7 1535.9 2108.1 764.8 1343.3 20034 -501.8 1099.1 1600.9 2123.7 772.8 1350.9 20041 -543.2 1140.9 1684.1 2169.1 806.2 1362.9 20042 -603.0 1172.8 1775.8 2202.9 821.9 1381.0 20043 -632.7 1187.3 1820.0 2237.3 839.4 1397.9 20044 -682.6 1228.6 1911.2 2258.2 835.0 1423.2 20051 -671.1 1260.8 1931.9 2306.7 864.0 1442.7 20052 -679.8 1301.2 1981.0 2339.9 870.4 1469.5 20053 -725.0 1316.0 2041.0 2394.7 896.0 1498.7 20054 -782.3 1359.6 2141.9 2412.4 883.4 1529.0 20061 -763.3 1406.6 2169.9 2472.1 921.5 1550.6 20062 -780.4 1447.4 2227.8 2512.6 926.9 1585.7 20063 -799.1 1484.5 2283.6 2536.1 932.0 1604.1 20064 -705.3 1531.9 2237.2 2571.4 949.7 1621.7 20071 -714.1 1549.9 2264.0 2608.3 946.6 1661.7 20072 -714.2 1598.7 2312.9 2670.0 969.5 1700.5 20073 -694.7 1685.7 2380.4 2716.5 990.3 1726.2 20074 -708.9 1737.7 2446.6 2764.4 997.7 1766.7 20081 -737.3 1799.2 2536.5 2824.8 1023.8 1801.0 20082 -737.6 1831.1 2568.7 2859.8 1039.1 1820.6 20083 -773.0 1867.6 2640.6 2896.7 1055.5 1841.2 20084 -786.4 1903.6 2690.0 2932.4 1071.5 1860.9 20091 -789.7 1962.4 2752.1 2967.4 1087.2 1880.2 20092 -783.7 2022.1 2805.9 3001.7 1102.8 1899.0 20093 -776.1 2082.9 2859.0 3035.6 1118.1 1917.4 20094 -768.3 2144.5 2912.8 3068.9 1133.4 1935.5 20101 -759.3 2207.2 2966.5 3101.7 1148.5 1953.3 20102 -749.1 2270.8 3019.9 3134.1 1163.4 1970.7 20103 -737.6 2335.5 3073.0 3165.9 1178.2 1987.7 20104 -724.9 2401.1 3126.0 3197.3 1192.9 2004.5
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 9977.3 7044.6 948.4 2026.7 4069.5 20022 10031.6 7086.0 956.9 2033.4 4095.7 20023 10090.7 7127.4 983.4 2035.0 4109.0 20024 10095.8 7151.0 970.4 2053.1 4127.5 20031 10126.0 7187.2 971.4 2072.5 4143.3 20032 10212.7 7255.2 1009.8 2084.1 4161.3 20033 10398.7 7363.3 1049.6 2123.0 4190.7 20034 10467.0 7404.0 1051.4 2132.4 4220.2 20041 10543.6 7485.8 1066.2 2156.7 4262.9 20042 10634.2 7530.8 1071.3 2164.9 4294.6 20043 10728.7 7598.1 1091.5 2181.4 4325.2 20044 10796.4 7678.7 1110.1 2207.5 4361.1 20051 10878.4 7724.1 1116.0 2226.8 4381.3 20052 10954.1 7794.7 1146.3 2247.1 4401.3 20053 11074.3 7873.5 1163.5 2260.9 4449.1 20054 11107.2 7888.1 1123.8 2286.8 4477.5 20061 11238.7 7981.1 1167.8 2312.3 4501.0 20062 11306.7 8027.4 1170.2 2325.6 4531.6 20063 11336.7 8084.1 1186.3 2343.8 4554.0 20064 11395.5 8161.9 1197.6 2368.8 4595.5 20071 11412.6 8240.4 1223.2 2386.5 4630.7 20072 11520.1 8268.8 1228.4 2383.7 4656.7 20073 11658.9 8328.2 1241.9 2396.8 4689.5 20074 11675.7 8374.6 1248.1 2404.1 4722.4 20081 11693.1 8387.2 1228.7 2396.3 4762.2 20082 11784.6 8494.5 1264.4 2421.3 4808.8 20083 11887.6 8592.6 1293.8 2447.8 4850.9 20084 11965.4 8647.9 1304.1 2465.6 4878.2 20091 12062.0 8703.6 1315.2 2480.9 4907.5 20092 12146.5 8760.7 1327.0 2495.4 4938.4 20093 12227.1 8818.3 1339.0 2509.3 4970.1 20094 12306.0 8876.2 1351.1 2522.7 5002.5 20101 12383.4 8934.6 1363.1 2535.8 5035.7 20102 12460.1 8993.7 1375.3 2548.7 5069.7 20103 12536.3 9053.7 1387.6 2561.5 5104.5 20104 12612.6 9114.5 1400.0 2574.4 5140.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20021 1539.0 1549.2 1090.2 459.0 -10.2 20022 1545.4 1542.8 1073.3 469.5 2.6 20023 1567.8 1539.8 1068.0 471.8 28.0 20024 1563.2 1533.7 1054.4 479.3 29.5 20031 1555.9 1531.6 1047.5 484.1 24.3 20032 1568.0 1570.7 1074.4 496.3 -2.7 20033 1631.0 1620.5 1098.7 521.8 10.5 20034 1666.7 1641.7 1106.5 535.2 25.0 20041 1674.6 1639.6 1099.1 540.5 35.0 20042 1754.1 1689.2 1127.5 561.7 64.9 20043 1788.3 1728.2 1160.7 567.5 60.1 20044 1817.7 1760.5 1189.6 570.9 57.2 20051 1841.2 1777.8 1199.5 578.3 63.4 20052 1820.6 1810.5 1214.1 596.4 10.1 20053 1851.8 1845.9 1239.5 606.4 5.9 20054 1910.8 1857.2 1250.0 607.2 53.6 20061 1934.2 1895.8 1289.7 606.1 38.4 20062 1942.0 1890.6 1303.1 587.5 51.4 20063 1928.3 1874.4 1319.4 555.0 53.9 20064 1861.5 1844.1 1314.7 529.4 17.4 20071 1828.1 1828.0 1321.7 506.3 0.1 20072 1853.1 1847.3 1356.6 490.7 5.8 20073 1881.2 1850.6 1387.3 463.3 30.6 20074 1820.4 1838.7 1407.8 430.9 -18.3 20081 1799.4 1797.6 1398.8 398.8 1.8 20082 1800.4 1789.4 1397.6 391.8 11.0 20083 1852.7 1833.8 1415.2 418.6 18.9 20084 1904.7 1860.7 1436.0 424.7 43.9 20091 1966.6 1920.7 1470.5 450.1 45.9 20092 2007.6 1953.9 1493.8 460.1 53.7 20093 2043.0 1987.3 1514.9 472.3 55.7 20094 2076.1 2020.9 1536.0 484.9 55.2 20101 2106.3 2051.9 1555.0 496.9 54.4 20102 2133.9 2080.5 1572.4 508.1 53.5 20103 2159.4 2106.9 1588.4 518.5 52.4 20104 2183.0 2131.4 1603.2 528.2 51.6
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20021 -441.2 992.8 1434.0 1832.0 20022 -458.9 1018.0 1476.9 1853.4 20023 -472.2 1025.2 1497.4 1863.9 20024 -513.0 1017.2 1530.2 1885.9 20031 -507.2 1003.3 1510.5 1879.3 20032 -526.9 999.0 1525.9 1907.4 20033 -513.8 1026.2 1540.0 1914.4 20034 -527.8 1075.8 1603.6 1917.9 20041 -549.1 1101.8 1650.9 1925.4 20042 -591.0 1119.4 1710.4 1931.8 20043 -602.7 1128.0 1730.7 1939.2 20044 -632.3 1155.3 1787.6 1930.4 20051 -624.4 1172.4 1796.8 1936.7 20052 -601.0 1199.3 1800.3 1942.3 20053 -604.1 1205.6 1809.7 1957.5 20054 -642.5 1236.4 1878.9 1947.9 20061 -640.1 1270.6 1910.7 1971.7 20062 -626.6 1288.4 1915.0 1976.3 20063 -633.8 1306.6 1940.4 1980.0 20064 -597.3 1350.9 1948.2 1997.2 20071 -612.2 1354.6 1966.8 1994.4 20072 -573.8 1379.5 1953.3 2014.5 20073 -533.2 1441.1 1974.3 2033.6 20074 -503.2 1464.1 1967.3 2043.3 20081 -495.9 1483.8 1979.7 2053.7 20082 -505.1 1494.8 1999.9 2058.1 20083 -544.8 1505.9 2050.7 2062.5 20084 -566.8 1517.1 2083.9 2066.9 20091 -580.1 1546.5 2126.7 2071.3 20092 -586.3 1576.6 2162.9 2075.8 20093 -591.1 1607.2 2198.3 2080.2 20094 -595.8 1638.4 2234.2 2084.7 20101 -599.4 1670.3 2269.7 2089.3 20102 -602.1 1702.7 2304.8 2093.8 20103 -603.8 1735.8 2339.5 2098.4 20104 -604.5 1769.5 2374.0 2103.0
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20021 1816.5 843.1 136.3 90.2 732.1 20022 1825.0 835.2 147.4 92.8 735.5 20023 1821.7 825.8 153.9 93.2 735.0 20024 1822.4 818.0 164.2 92.4 734.4 20031 1851.6 804.4 190.8 94.7 747.6 20032 1863.0 810.4 186.5 95.9 755.9 20033 1780.1 708.2 199.6 96.1 761.7 20034 1871.6 774.7 214.3 97.9 770.3 20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2169.6 897.1 316.4 103.4 836.0 20052 2210.1 920.4 320.9 108.4 842.6 20053 2149.9 946.1 303.5 106.8 856.1 20054 2290.0 966.1 338.3 105.4 862.6 20061 2397.0 1022.7 356.4 106.1 892.8 20062 2431.9 1032.9 378.6 106.7 894.1 20063 2472.7 1057.4 387.1 107.1 900.9 20064 2514.7 1099.8 370.1 105.0 918.8 20071 2580.3 1138.8 370.3 105.0 944.0 20072 2627.1 1151.7 401.3 105.5 946.3 20073 2642.0 1170.7 382.5 108.7 957.3 20074 2655.5 1187.2 369.1 109.7 964.6 20081 2644.2 1180.9 339.8 112.0 985.2 20082 2732.8 1211.5 377.2 114.2 1003.6 20083 2799.8 1250.0 379.6 116.5 1027.4 20084 2857.6 1286.9 376.0 118.3 1050.1 20091 2919.7 1324.8 375.3 120.0 1073.4 20092 2978.1 1362.2 372.0 121.7 1095.9 20093 3034.8 1398.8 368.5 123.4 1117.8 20094 3090.3 1434.9 364.9 125.0 1139.2 20101 3144.6 1470.4 361.2 126.7 1160.0 20102 3198.0 1505.5 357.6 128.3 1180.3 20103 3250.6 1540.1 354.0 130.0 1200.3 20104 3302.6 1574.4 350.4 131.6 1219.9
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20021 2025.0 571.3 905.8 882.8 23.0 291.4 214.1 42.4 -208.5 20022 2066.5 585.0 919.7 909.3 10.4 303.1 218.3 40.4 -241.5 20023 2068.9 591.4 923.1 913.6 9.5 306.6 212.5 35.3 -247.2 20024 2117.1 618.5 933.1 918.9 14.2 317.2 209.9 38.4 -294.7 20031 2141.9 636.9 955.6 935.2 20.4 311.9 201.6 37.3 -290.3 20032 2228.5 668.4 968.2 950.7 17.5 342.2 195.8 52.5 -365.5 20033 2231.4 669.1 977.3 958.9 18.4 345.9 193.1 46.0 -451.3 20034 2253.1 676.5 981.1 967.2 13.9 354.2 195.3 46.0 -381.5 20041 2312.4 709.6 1019.5 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 1010.7 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 1016.3 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1027.7 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2467.6 759.1 1077.1 1045.4 31.7 358.3 215.8 57.3 -298.0 20052 2497.7 761.7 1077.4 1057.9 19.5 360.8 235.9 61.9 -287.6 20053 2544.1 784.1 1096.1 1072.9 23.2 360.2 238.5 65.2 -394.2 20054 2583.3 769.0 1118.2 1084.1 34.1 365.4 263.3 67.4 -293.3 20061 2616.6 804.8 1159.9 1141.6 18.3 354.6 242.2 55.1 -219.6 20062 2671.8 806.6 1187.1 1162.9 24.2 358.4 267.5 52.2 -239.9 20063 2711.8 813.3 1203.4 1178.0 25.4 364.2 279.7 51.2 -239.1 20064 2696.1 826.4 1208.5 1194.9 13.6 357.1 252.4 51.7 -181.4 20071 2799.0 829.8 1263.6 1229.1 34.5 374.0 278.9 52.7 -218.7 20072 2833.7 849.8 1266.4 1251.5 14.9 376.1 291.5 49.9 -206.6 20073 2872.3 867.7 1288.2 1266.0 22.2 379.1 291.3 46.0 -230.3 20074 2882.1 876.9 1300.2 1271.0 29.2 380.7 276.8 47.5 -226.6 20081 2961.4 901.1 1333.3 1299.5 33.8 381.4 296.4 49.2 -317.2 20082 3187.3 914.9 1533.3 1499.5 33.8 386.1 303.8 49.2 -454.5 20083 3214.3 929.8 1533.3 1499.5 33.8 390.8 311.1 49.2 -414.4 20084 3037.8 944.2 1333.3 1299.5 33.8 395.6 315.5 49.2 -180.3 20091 3080.0 958.4 1352.4 1318.6 33.8 400.5 319.6 49.2 -160.2 20092 3122.0 972.3 1371.7 1337.9 33.8 405.4 323.4 49.2 -143.9 20093 3164.1 986.1 1391.3 1357.5 33.8 410.4 327.1 49.2 -129.3 20094 3206.2 999.7 1411.3 1377.5 33.8 415.4 330.6 49.2 -115.9 20101 3248.3 1013.2 1431.5 1397.7 33.8 420.5 334.0 49.2 -103.7 20102 3290.5 1026.5 1452.0 1418.2 33.8 425.7 337.2 49.2 -92.5 20103 3332.7 1039.6 1472.8 1439.0 33.8 430.9 340.3 49.2 -82.1 20104 3375.0 1052.5 1493.9 1460.1 33.8 436.2 343.2 49.2 -72.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20021 1255.1 220.1 29.1 667.5 15.0 291.4 20022 1274.1 215.1 31.2 676.7 15.6 303.1 20023 1302.4 224.2 32.8 689.8 16.1 306.6 20024 1322.7 225.8 35.6 694.3 16.5 317.2 20031 1318.7 218.3 33.3 704.8 17.8 311.9 20032 1359.0 213.2 32.9 718.4 19.1 342.2 20033 1402.6 234.4 35.9 732.2 20.4 345.9 20034 1436.1 240.6 39.1 746.0 21.7 354.2 20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1557.9 269.3 56.7 812.2 25.0 358.3 20052 1581.2 275.1 57.0 826.5 25.4 360.8 20053 1598.2 277.4 53.5 840.0 25.6 360.2 20054 1605.1 284.9 59.6 850.4 25.8 365.4 20061 1639.9 295.9 59.4 865.0 26.0 354.6 20062 1675.1 309.7 63.2 877.6 26.0 358.4 20063 1676.7 297.7 64.8 882.8 26.0 364.2 20064 1681.2 301.3 62.4 892.5 25.9 357.1 20071 1723.3 315.9 61.8 903.7 25.8 374.0 20072 1754.7 325.9 67.4 916.6 25.9 376.1 20073 1755.7 319.1 64.1 924.0 25.9 379.1 20074 1767.3 320.9 61.7 933.7 26.0 380.7 20081 1783.2 329.5 56.8 943.4 26.2 381.4 20082 1820.2 337.1 63.1 961.7 26.4 386.1 20083 1854.6 346.5 63.5 981.3 26.6 390.8 20084 1882.8 355.6 62.8 996.1 26.8 395.6 20091 1911.5 364.8 62.7 1010.6 27.0 400.5 20092 1939.6 374.0 62.2 1025.0 27.2 405.4 20093 1967.3 382.9 61.6 1039.2 27.4 410.4 20094 1994.8 391.7 61.0 1053.3 27.6 415.4 20101 2022.0 400.3 60.4 1067.2 27.8 420.5 20102 2049.1 408.8 59.8 1081.0 28.0 425.7 20103 2076.1 417.1 59.2 1094.8 28.2 430.9 20104 2103.0 425.4 58.6 1108.5 28.4 436.2
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20021 1290.4 1001.8 278.8 12.7 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -35.3 20022 1309.4 1019.4 278.4 15.7 2.0 -2.1 0.0 -35.3 20023 1333.8 1033.6 285.1 18.0 2.0 -0.9 0.0 -31.4 20024 1357.7 1046.7 295.9 19.5 2.0 -2.4 0.0 -35.0 20031 1380.0 1065.2 295.8 21.9 2.3 -0.6 0.0 -61.3 20032 1386.1 1066.7 297.0 24.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 -27.1 20033 1410.8 1076.2 310.8 25.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 -8.2 20034 1421.0 1086.9 306.0 27.5 2.1 2.7 0.0 15.1 20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 0.0 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 0.0 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 0.0 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 0.0 28.0 20051 1525.8 1162.9 337.8 22.0 2.4 5.5 0.0 32.1 20052 1555.5 1182.3 347.5 21.5 2.4 6.6 0.0 25.7 20053 1592.6 1208.9 343.0 21.1 2.5 22.1 0.0 5.6 20054 1607.5 1234.7 345.5 21.1 2.5 8.7 0.0 -2.4 20061 1604.3 1247.4 328.3 21.4 2.6 9.8 0.0 35.6 20062 1632.0 1270.0 332.2 21.6 2.7 10.9 0.0 43.1 20063 1664.2 1287.7 345.7 22.0 2.7 11.5 0.0 12.5 20064 1673.5 1300.8 341.9 21.3 2.6 12.1 0.0 7.7 20071 1729.3 1326.7 370.7 22.3 2.6 12.2 0.0 -6.0 20072 1741.3 1355.9 352.5 23.1 2.6 12.4 0.0 13.4 20073 1768.6 1374.3 361.2 23.0 2.7 12.8 0.0 -12.9 20074 1809.2 1406.4 368.9 23.6 2.8 13.1 0.0 -41.9 20081 1844.1 1443.2 366.9 23.5 3.1 13.6 0.0 -60.9 20082 1865.6 1458.4 373.0 23.7 3.1 13.6 0.0 -45.4 20083 1886.9 1474.5 378.0 23.8 3.1 13.6 0.0 -32.2 20084 1906.7 1489.8 382.3 24.0 3.1 13.6 0.0 -23.9 20091 1925.3 1504.5 386.1 24.2 3.1 13.6 0.0 -13.8 20092 1943.2 1518.7 389.6 24.4 3.1 13.6 0.0 -3.6 20093 1960.7 1532.5 393.2 24.6 3.1 13.6 0.0 6.6 20094 1977.9 1545.8 396.9 24.7 3.1 13.6 0.0 16.9 20101 1994.9 1558.8 400.7 24.9 3.1 13.6 0.0 27.1 20102 2011.7 1571.3 404.8 25.1 3.1 13.6 0.0 37.4 20103 2028.3 1583.5 409.0 25.3 3.1 13.6 0.0 47.8 20104 2044.6 1595.3 413.3 25.5 3.1 13.6 0.0 58.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20021 103.6 102.6 96.5 100.9 104.9 20022 103.9 103.3 96.0 102.2 105.6 20023 104.3 103.8 95.6 102.5 106.4 20024 104.9 104.2 95.0 102.8 107.1 20031 105.7 105.0 93.8 104.2 108.1 20032 106.1 105.1 92.8 103.4 109.0 20033 106.6 105.7 91.9 104.4 109.8 20034 107.2 106.1 91.1 104.6 110.6 20041 108.2 107.0 90.9 105.9 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.0 107.5 112.5 20043 109.8 108.5 90.4 107.9 113.4 20044 110.7 109.3 90.5 109.1 114.2 20051 111.7 109.9 90.5 109.2 115.2 20052 112.4 110.7 90.4 110.6 116.2 20053 113.4 111.9 89.7 113.1 117.1 20054 114.4 112.8 89.5 113.3 118.4 20061 115.4 113.2 89.3 113.4 119.3 20062 116.3 114.4 89.1 115.8 120.2 20063 117.0 115.1 88.8 116.6 121.2 20064 117.5 114.8 88.2 114.2 122.1 20071 118.8 115.8 87.8 115.6 123.2 20072 119.5 117.0 87.5 118.4 124.0 20073 119.8 117.5 87.1 118.8 124.9 20074 120.6 118.7 86.7 120.8 126.0 20081 121.3 119.8 86.7 122.8 126.8 20082 122.4 120.6 86.4 123.8 127.9 20083 123.7 121.6 86.2 125.1 129.3 20084 125.0 122.7 86.0 126.4 130.6 20091 126.2 123.7 85.8 127.6 131.8 20092 127.3 124.6 85.5 128.7 133.0 20093 128.4 125.5 85.1 129.9 134.2 20094 129.5 126.4 84.8 130.9 135.3 20101 130.6 127.2 84.4 132.0 136.4 20102 131.6 128.0 84.0 133.0 137.4 20103 132.5 128.8 83.6 134.0 138.4 20104 133.5 129.5 83.2 134.9 139.4
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20021 101.5 99.5 106.1 98.3 94.1 104.4 20022 101.7 99.5 106.7 99.0 96.4 105.1 20023 101.8 99.4 107.1 99.8 97.3 105.8 20024 102.6 99.6 108.9 99.9 97.4 106.7 20031 103.4 99.7 111.4 100.9 100.1 109.1 20032 103.2 99.3 111.5 101.2 99.1 109.5 20033 103.6 99.5 112.2 101.4 99.7 110.1 20034 104.6 99.8 114.3 102.2 99.8 110.7 20041 105.7 100.1 117.0 103.5 102.0 112.7 20042 107.0 100.7 119.5 104.8 103.8 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.3 105.2 115.4 20044 108.9 101.7 123.8 106.3 106.9 117.0 20051 110.3 102.8 125.8 107.5 107.5 119.1 20052 111.2 103.4 126.9 108.5 110.0 120.5 20053 112.3 103.8 129.6 109.2 112.8 122.3 20054 113.9 105.0 132.2 110.0 114.0 123.8 20061 114.8 106.0 133.5 110.7 113.6 125.4 20062 115.3 106.8 134.2 112.3 116.3 127.1 20063 115.3 107.3 134.4 113.6 117.7 128.1 20064 115.6 107.8 135.1 113.4 114.8 128.8 20071 115.9 108.3 135.8 114.4 115.1 130.8 20072 115.5 108.3 135.5 115.9 118.4 132.5 20073 115.0 108.1 135.4 117.0 120.6 133.6 20074 114.7 108.4 135.3 118.7 124.4 135.3 20081 114.2 108.4 134.5 121.3 128.1 137.5 20082 114.3 108.8 134.0 122.5 128.4 139.0 20083 115.0 109.4 133.8 124.0 128.8 140.4 20084 115.3 110.0 133.4 125.5 129.1 141.9 20091 115.8 110.4 133.1 126.9 129.4 143.3 20092 116.0 110.9 132.6 128.3 129.7 144.6 20093 116.3 111.3 132.1 129.6 130.1 145.9 20094 116.5 111.7 131.6 130.9 130.4 147.2 20101 116.6 112.0 131.0 132.1 130.7 148.5 20102 116.7 112.3 130.4 133.4 131.0 149.7 20103 116.8 112.6 129.8 134.5 131.4 150.9 20104 116.8 112.8 129.1 135.7 131.7 152.0
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment