US Forecast: July 31, 2008
Forecast Period

2008:3--2012:4 (18 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 31, 2008.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2008:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: July 31, 2008, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few minor specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are: 1) in equation 9, which explains MH, the time trend T has been replaced by a time trend T951Z that begins in 1995:1, with zero values prior to 1995:1, and the equation is estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term, 2) in equation 14, which explains HF, the time trend T has been added, 3) in equation 21, which explains CCF, some of the dummy variables have been changed and some new dummy variables have been added to try to account for different tax law changes, and 4) three new exogenous variables have been added to reflect data changes, TAXFR, TRFG, and TRFS. The three new exogenous variables required changes to the identities 67, 68, 69, 74, 76, 78, 105, and 112. Also, beginning with the January 28, 2006, version, one more dummy variable has been added to equation 21. Beginning with the April 28, 2006, version, the interest rate variable in equation 17 is unlagged rather than lagged once. Finally, beginning with the April 30, 2008, version, the dummy variable D981 has been dropped from equations 9 and 17, and the dummy variable DD074 has been added to equation 22. No changes were made for the current forecast (July 31, 2008).

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The following table gives the growth rates that were assumed for the current forecast for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2008:2.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2008:2-1993.3  

TRGH       see below               5.7       
COG           2.0                  3.7       
JG            0.0                 -0.8       
TRGS          5.0                  5.9       
TRSH          4.0                  6.2       
COS           1.0                  3.7       
JS            0.0                  1.4       
EX            2.0/8.0              6.0
PIM           1.0                  2.0

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. 2.0/8.0 for EX means that the growth rate of EX was taken to be 2.0 percent (at an annual rate) for 2008:3-2008:4 and 8.0 percent (at an annual rate) after that. The BEA put some of the tax rebate in personal income taxes and some in transfer payments, but I put all the rebate in transfer payments, variable TRGH. The rebate added $75 billion to TRGH in 2008:2. The rest of the rebate, assumed to be $31 billion, was added to TRGH for 2008:3. These additions are at quarterly rates.

A key question for the forecast is what to assume about future tax rates. Will the Bush tax cuts be allowed to be phased out, which is currently the law, or will the cuts be made permanent? For this forecast the tax rates in the model have been assumed to be unchanged from their current values. This "no-tax-change" case is thus a base case around which experiments can be made. The user can put in his or her own assumptions about the government's future tax and rebate policies.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

Selected forecast results are present in the tables that follow this memo. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The predicted growth rates for real GDP for the next four quarters are 2.8, 3.5, 3.2, and 3.2 percent, respectively. The respective unemployment rate values are 5.5, 5.4, 5.2, and 5.0 percent. The jobs variable, JF, is predicted to increase in the four quarters by 1.0, 2.2, 2.7, and 2.9 percent, respectively.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted for the next four quarters to be large: 5.6, 5.3, 5.0, and 4.8 percent, respectively. These predicted values are clearly higher than most others are predicting. The model, however, has been overpredicting inflation for the past few quarters, and so the current predictions should be interpreted with some caution. If the model is right, inflation is going to be a problem this year. (For the past forecasting record of the model, see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be 2.1 percent in 2008:3, 2.7 percent in 2008:4, 3.1 percent in 2009:1, and 3.4 percent in 2009:2. It rises to 4.7 percent by the end of 2010. In other words, the equation is predicting that the Fed will reverse course and begin raising interest rates, driven, of course, by the high inflation predictions.

Other Variables: The federal government budget deficit is predicted to fall to close to zero by 2011 (on a NIPA bases). (See the predicted values for SGP.) It is high in 2008:3 because of the remaining tax rebate. Remember that the assumption about tax rates is that they remain roughly unchanged.

The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to remain high, although gradually falling.

Evaluation of the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

It is obvious that the US Model's forecast is different from what many people are expecting. No recession is forecast, and inflation is predicted to be a problem. Also, this forecast is based on higher interest rates than the Fed is currently setting and on the assumption of no other stimulative fiscal policies. If lower interest rates were used and/or further fiscal stimulus was used, the forecasts of real output and inflation would be even higher. The model could, of course, be completely wrong, but there is nothing in the initial conditions and likely paths of the exogenous variables that suggests there is going to be a recession.

There are many experiments that can be run from this base forecast. These include various fiscal stimulus packages. You can also drop the interest rate rule (equation 30) and put in different values for the bill rate. As noted above, the Fed is currently much more expansive than equation 30 is predictng, and you may want to use lower values of the bill rate (RS).

Regarding inflation, you may want to increase PIM if you think there will be further oil price increases or depreciation of the dollar. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent throughout the forecast period, which may be low. If you increase PIM, inflation will, of course, be even higher than is currently forecast.

If you think housing prices will fall further, you can decrease PSI5, which will lower PIH relative to PD. This will affect consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3).

Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. At the time of this writing the S&P 500 index is about 1270. If you think that the index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

US Forecast Tables: July 31, 2008
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.6
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 1.1.4
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 10543.6 3.0 4262.9 4.1 2156.7 4.6 1066.2 5.8 20042 10634.2 3.5 4294.6 3.0 2164.9 1.5 1071.3 1.9 20043 10728.7 3.6 4325.2 2.9 2181.4 3.1 1091.5 7.8 20044 10796.4 2.5 4361.1 3.4 2207.5 4.9 1110.1 7.0 20051 10875.8 3.0 4379.3 1.7 2220.6 2.4 1111.6 0.5 20052 10946.1 2.6 4398.2 1.7 2243.7 4.2 1143.7 12.1 20053 11050.0 3.9 4439.4 3.8 2260.1 3.0 1158.9 5.4 20054 11086.1 1.3 4466.9 2.5 2286.2 4.7 1123.3 -11.7 20061 11217.3 4.8 4484.7 1.6 2310.7 4.4 1173.1 18.9 20062 11291.7 2.7 4515.7 2.8 2328.7 3.2 1178.3 1.8 20063 11314.1 0.8 4537.6 2.0 2342.0 2.3 1188.4 3.5 20064 11356.4 1.5 4581.5 3.9 2359.8 3.1 1200.7 4.2 20071 11357.8 0.0 4616.2 3.1 2380.1 3.5 1227.3 9.2 20072 11491.4 4.8 4632.7 1.4 2391.5 1.9 1242.3 5.0 20073 11625.8 4.8 4659.8 2.4 2398.6 1.2 1249.4 2.3 20074 11620.7 -0.2 4676.1 1.4 2400.1 0.3 1250.6 0.4 20081 11646.0 0.9 4704.4 2.4 2397.9 -0.4 1237.0 -4.3 20082 11700.7 1.9 4717.4 1.1 2421.7 4.0 1227.7 -3.0 20083 11781.3 2.8 4755.8 3.3 2441.3 3.3 1248.1 6.8 20084 11882.5 3.5 4784.6 2.4 2455.2 2.3 1259.0 3.5 20091 11975.2 3.2 4813.2 2.4 2467.6 2.0 1270.0 3.5 20092 12069.9 3.2 4842.1 2.4 2479.6 2.0 1281.1 3.5 20093 12160.2 3.0 4871.1 2.4 2491.3 1.9 1292.2 3.5 20094 12248.1 2.9 4900.3 2.4 2502.8 1.9 1303.0 3.4 20101 12333.4 2.8 4929.7 2.4 2514.0 1.8 1313.6 3.3 20102 12416.0 2.7 4959.7 2.5 2525.0 1.8 1323.9 3.2 20103 12497.0 2.6 4990.3 2.5 2535.9 1.7 1334.2 3.1 20104 12577.0 2.6 5021.6 2.5 2546.8 1.7 1344.5 3.1 20111 12656.6 2.6 5053.6 2.6 2558.0 1.8 1354.8 3.1 20112 12736.2 2.5 5086.6 2.6 2569.3 1.8 1365.4 3.2 20113 12816.2 2.5 5120.4 2.7 2581.0 1.8 1376.2 3.2 20114 12897.1 2.5 5155.1 2.7 2593.0 1.9 1387.5 3.3 20121 12979.0 2.6 5190.7 2.8 2605.5 1.9 1399.3 3.4 20122 13062.2 2.6 5227.3 2.8 2618.4 2.0 1411.5 3.5 20123 13146.7 2.6 5264.7 2.9 2631.8 2.1 1424.3 3.7 20124 13232.8 2.6 5303.1 2.9 2645.7 2.1 1437.7 3.8
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 451.5 -7.3 884.8 -1.8 35.0 1650.9 12.3 20042 483.2 31.2 918.5 16.1 64.9 1710.4 15.2 20043 483.5 0.3 921.9 1.5 60.1 1730.7 4.8 20044 486.5 2.4 927.2 2.3 57.2 1787.6 13.8 20051 499.0 10.7 970.5 20.0 74.6 1801.6 3.2 20052 517.2 15.4 993.9 10.0 16.7 1804.4 0.6 20053 515.0 -1.7 1016.6 9.4 11.0 1807.9 0.8 20054 520.8 4.6 1029.9 5.4 53.5 1873.5 15.3 20061 508.0 -9.5 1073.7 18.1 45.9 1920.2 10.3 20062 484.2 -17.5 1095.5 8.4 56.9 1920.9 0.1 20063 438.0 -33.0 1115.5 7.5 53.3 1935.7 3.1 20064 416.7 -18.1 1118.5 1.1 13.1 1945.3 2.0 20071 378.1 -32.2 1132.1 4.9 -15.0 1981.8 7.7 20072 378.6 0.5 1147.2 5.5 -2.8 1963.4 -3.7 20073 383.0 4.7 1152.2 1.8 16.0 1978.0 3.0 20074 311.2 -56.4 1170.8 6.6 -8.1 1966.5 -2.3 20081 280.1 -34.4 1205.1 12.2 -10.2 1962.6 -0.8 20082 268.5 -15.6 1212.0 2.3 -62.2 1929.2 -6.6 20083 259.2 -13.2 1225.9 4.7 7.7 1926.7 -0.5 20084 250.2 -13.2 1239.4 4.5 20.8 1959.7 7.0 20091 255.7 9.1 1255.4 5.3 39.0 1987.9 5.9 20092 268.7 22.0 1276.4 6.9 49.4 2019.7 6.6 20093 285.9 28.3 1297.6 6.8 53.4 2054.3 7.0 20094 304.7 28.9 1317.2 6.2 55.7 2089.8 7.1 20101 323.2 26.7 1335.8 5.8 56.2 2125.2 6.9 20102 340.7 23.5 1352.3 5.0 55.6 2159.7 6.7 20103 356.8 20.3 1366.9 4.4 54.5 2193.2 6.4 20104 371.4 17.5 1379.6 3.8 53.2 2225.7 6.1 20111 384.7 15.0 1390.7 3.2 52.0 2257.3 5.8 20112 396.6 13.0 1400.1 2.8 50.9 2288.0 5.6 20113 407.5 11.4 1408.2 2.3 50.1 2318.3 5.4 20114 417.5 10.2 1415.0 1.9 49.5 2348.3 5.3 20121 426.7 9.2 1420.8 1.6 49.1 2378.2 5.2 20122 435.4 8.4 1425.7 1.4 48.8 2408.2 5.1 20123 443.5 7.7 1429.8 1.2 48.8 2438.5 5.1 20124 451.4 7.2 1433.5 1.0 48.9 2469.4 5.2
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.7 2.8 3.8 1.0 20042 3.8 3.5 7.3 3.7 20043 2.3 2.8 4.5 1.6 20044 3.2 3.1 6.7 3.5 20051 4.0 3.4 -0.5 -3.8 20052 2.1 1.8 2.3 0.5 20053 4.1 4.5 6.1 1.6 20054 3.8 4.2 4.3 0.1 20061 3.6 2.9 6.9 3.9 20062 2.7 2.8 0.3 -2.5 20063 2.7 2.0 1.4 -0.5 20064 2.2 1.4 7.8 6.3 20071 4.2 2.7 8.3 5.4 20072 1.9 1.6 0.3 -1.2 20073 1.6 1.1 4.9 3.8 20074 2.8 2.7 6.1 3.3 20081 2.6 3.0 4.8 1.8 20082 0.8 1.2 4.3 3.0 20083 5.6 6.5 7.5 1.0 20084 5.3 6.1 7.3 1.1 20091 5.0 5.9 7.1 1.1 20092 4.8 5.7 7.0 1.2 20093 4.6 5.6 6.8 1.2 20094 4.4 5.4 6.7 1.2 20101 4.2 5.2 6.5 1.3 20102 4.0 5.0 6.4 1.3 20103 3.8 4.7 6.2 1.4 20104 3.6 4.5 6.0 1.4 20111 3.4 4.3 5.8 1.5 20112 3.2 4.1 5.7 1.5 20113 3.0 3.9 5.5 1.6 20114 2.8 3.7 5.4 1.6 20121 2.7 3.5 5.2 1.7 20122 2.5 3.3 5.1 1.7 20123 2.4 3.2 5.0 1.8 20124 2.3 3.1 4.9 1.8
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1422.9 7.5 73.3 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1438.0 4.3 77.3 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1459.1 6.0 72.6 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1485.2 7.3 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1485.1 0.0 74.0 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1489.0 1.0 71.8 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1479.5 -2.5 68.4 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1483.2 1.0 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1508.8 7.1 67.2 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1498.4 -2.7 66.5 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1473.3 -6.5 63.5 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1470.1 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1503.2 9.3 65.8 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1478.9 -6.3 62.9 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1458.9 -5.3 70.9 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1473.2 4.0 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1487.4 3.9 -35.7 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1499.2 3.2 -35.1 20083 2.1 5.7 6.0 1510.9 3.2 -44.0 20084 2.7 5.7 6.1 1521.9 2.9 -48.7 20091 3.1 5.8 6.2 1532.8 2.9 -50.9 20092 3.4 5.8 6.3 1544.1 3.0 -52.0 20093 3.8 5.9 6.5 1555.4 3.0 -52.3 20094 4.1 6.0 6.6 1567.0 3.0 -52.4 20101 4.3 6.1 6.8 1578.9 3.1 -52.2 20102 4.5 6.2 6.9 1591.2 3.2 -52.0 20103 4.6 6.2 7.0 1604.1 3.3 -51.7 20104 4.7 6.3 7.2 1617.5 3.4 -51.4 20111 4.8 6.4 7.3 1631.5 3.5 -51.1 20112 4.8 6.5 7.3 1646.1 3.6 -50.9 20113 4.8 6.5 7.4 1661.4 3.8 -50.6 20114 4.8 6.6 7.5 1677.2 3.9 -50.4 20121 4.7 6.6 7.5 1693.7 4.0 -50.2 20122 4.7 6.6 7.5 1710.7 4.1 -50.1 20123 4.7 6.6 7.5 1728.2 4.2 -49.9 20124 4.6 6.6 7.5 1746.2 4.2 -49.8
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.2 0.0 5.4 0.9 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.2 8.2 20043 5.4 1.4 -0.1 2.6 2.0 1.9 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 -0.1 4.3 1.5 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.9 7.8 20052 5.1 1.2 1.3 5.2 2.1 3.1 7.6 20053 5.0 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.2 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.4 0.5 2.6 1.4 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.2 7.1 20062 4.7 0.6 0.8 4.4 1.7 2.0 7.0 20063 4.6 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.5 7.0 20064 4.4 2.0 -0.2 4.1 1.2 2.9 6.8 20071 4.5 1.6 -0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 -0.2 6.9 20073 4.7 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.0 0.4 7.2 20074 4.8 1.2 0.0 2.5 0.5 0.7 7.4 20081 4.9 -2.2 -0.2 2.8 -1.1 -0.6 7.6 20082 5.3 -0.6 2.1 3.8 -1.1 0.1 8.2 20083 5.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 8.5 20084 5.4 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 8.4 20091 5.2 0.6 0.9 2.1 2.7 1.9 8.2 20092 5.0 0.6 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.1 7.9 20093 4.9 0.6 1.0 2.3 2.9 2.0 7.6 20094 4.7 0.7 1.0 2.4 2.7 1.9 7.4 20101 4.6 0.7 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.8 7.3 20102 4.6 0.7 1.0 2.5 2.3 1.6 7.2 20103 4.5 0.7 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.5 7.2 20104 4.6 0.7 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.3 7.3 20111 4.6 0.7 1.1 2.5 1.8 1.3 7.3 20112 4.6 0.7 1.1 2.4 1.6 1.2 7.4 20113 4.7 0.7 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.1 7.6 20114 4.8 0.6 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.1 7.7 20121 4.8 0.6 1.2 2.4 1.4 1.1 7.8 20122 4.9 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.1 8.0 20123 5.0 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.1 8.1 20124 5.0 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.1 8.2
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 1408.9 781.1 85.2 2.1 1.6 539.3 -411.0 -8.0 20042 924.2 849.3 39.8 2.1 4.3 616.2 -374.1 -1.9 20043 -793.4 906.8 30.0 1.8 3.7 619.3 -361.8 -12.2 20044 6906.4 886.0 -8.9 2.6 -2.5 721.7 -335.5 28.0 20051 -530.5 1130.9 165.5 0.8 0.9 683.1 -278.7 41.1 20052 1620.5 1175.4 16.7 0.5 2.5 689.1 -269.6 38.1 20053 3196.8 1174.0 -0.5 -0.7 7.7 658.9 -364.8 19.1 20054 3813.3 1301.4 51.0 0.8 -1.7 812.5 -253.7 19.1 20061 4058.8 1343.1 13.5 1.0 -0.7 768.8 -208.0 57.6 20062 -589.6 1407.1 20.5 0.6 0.5 788.9 -224.7 63.0 20063 3117.4 1457.2 15.0 0.5 -0.3 825.6 -218.5 32.1 20064 5566.3 1373.4 -21.1 0.9 -0.4 703.0 -153.2 31.8 20071 1869.3 1385.5 3.6 1.1 2.6 777.7 -225.1 23.2 20072 4357.7 1420.7 10.5 0.3 3.2 763.7 -211.3 35.7 20073 1343.5 1438.8 5.2 0.5 7.0 682.0 -244.4 4.8 20074 -1606.7 1512.8 22.2 0.4 2.7 651.0 -236.3 -22.4 20081 -6193.9 1349.6 -36.7 0.4 2.2 693.0 -325.4 -52.5 20082 -2000.0 1338.3 -3.3 2.7 3.1 712.6 -629.3 -75.4 20083 1596.7 1394.4 17.9 0.7 2.4 682.8 -400.7 -65.0 20084 1485.9 1427.0 9.7 -0.4 1.3 697.3 -250.1 -53.4 20091 1414.9 1432.4 1.5 -0.3 0.6 676.6 -223.4 -40.7 20092 1384.9 1433.4 0.3 -0.1 0.5 659.6 -195.8 -27.0 20093 1274.4 1427.6 -1.6 0.0 0.5 645.5 -169.4 -13.3 20094 1237.1 1420.2 -2.0 0.2 0.6 631.4 -144.2 0.1 20101 1250.4 1411.3 -2.5 0.3 0.7 616.2 -120.5 13.2 20102 1282.2 1401.3 -2.8 0.4 0.9 599.1 -98.6 25.8 20103 1317.5 1390.9 -2.9 0.4 1.1 579.7 -78.2 38.1 20104 1357.8 1380.3 -3.0 0.5 1.2 558.2 -59.3 50.3 20111 1407.6 1369.8 -3.0 0.6 1.3 534.7 -41.6 62.4 20112 1463.2 1359.2 -3.1 0.6 1.5 509.5 -24.9 74.5 20113 1519.9 1348.6 -3.1 0.7 1.6 482.8 -8.9 86.9 20114 1576.3 1338.0 -3.1 0.7 1.6 455.0 6.6 99.5 20121 1632.3 1327.3 -3.1 0.7 1.7 426.3 21.8 112.5 20122 1687.7 1316.6 -3.2 0.7 1.7 397.0 37.0 125.9 20123 1741.8 1305.9 -3.2 0.7 1.8 367.1 52.4 139.7 20124 1794.3 1295.1 -3.3 0.7 1.8 336.8 68.1 154.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 10.0 -2.3 10.0 992.4 10.8 9.0 20042 5.0 1.1 6.5 994.2 0.7 7.3 20043 10.4 -4.3 3.1 999.2 2.0 5.2 20044 -10.5 -2.7 10.0 1011.5 5.0 6.8 20051 1.6 -4.1 8.1 1042.6 12.9 2.4 20052 3.1 0.9 8.8 1056.6 5.5 9.7 20053 19.0 -1.4 0.4 1072.0 6.0 10.4 20054 -14.1 3.7 10.8 1083.0 4.2 4.6 20061 22.6 0.0 16.7 1137.1 21.5 -1.1 20062 -2.9 7.0 5.4 1157.1 7.2 10.3 20063 0.4 1.4 3.5 1168.6 4.0 5.0 20064 3.2 1.1 15.6 1181.5 4.5 -9.1 20071 -6.1 7.0 0.6 1211.8 10.7 0.9 20072 13.2 4.2 8.8 1229.9 6.1 12.8 20073 10.0 3.0 23.0 1243.3 4.4 7.4 20074 -2.1 1.4 4.4 1249.0 1.8 12.8 20081 7.6 -3.6 5.1 1284.0 11.7 12.8 20082 9.0 1.9 9.2 1618.6 152.5 28.6 20083 2.0 1.0 2.0 1434.6 -38.3 1.0 20084 2.0 1.0 2.0 1332.0 -25.7 1.0 20091 2.0 1.0 8.0 1351.5 6.0 1.0 20092 2.0 1.0 8.0 1371.4 6.0 1.0 20093 2.0 1.0 8.0 1391.5 6.0 1.0 20094 2.0 1.0 8.0 1411.9 6.0 1.0 20101 2.0 1.0 8.0 1432.6 6.0 1.0 20102 2.0 1.0 8.0 1453.7 6.0 1.0 20103 2.0 1.0 8.0 1475.0 6.0 1.0 20104 2.0 1.0 8.0 1496.6 6.0 1.0 20111 2.0 1.0 8.0 1518.6 6.0 1.0 20112 2.0 1.0 8.0 1540.9 6.0 1.0 20113 2.0 1.0 8.0 1563.5 6.0 1.0 20114 2.0 1.0 8.0 1586.4 6.0 1.0 20121 2.0 1.0 8.0 1609.7 6.0 1.0 20122 2.0 1.0 8.0 1633.3 6.0 1.0 20123 2.0 1.0 8.0 1657.3 6.0 1.0 20124 2.0 1.0 8.0 1681.6 6.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2185.9 894.9 335.4 104.0 835.0 20052 2226.0 917.8 339.8 108.9 842.5 20053 2175.4 944.2 318.0 107.0 857.0 20054 2324.7 965.8 370.6 105.2 865.7 20061 2413.8 1018.8 377.3 105.1 893.6 20062 2447.3 1031.6 394.4 106.0 895.7 20063 2489.6 1056.0 404.6 106.5 902.6 20064 2515.6 1093.2 379.5 105.1 917.7 20071 2567.4 1139.5 365.6 104.8 937.1 20072 2599.0 1157.1 381.5 103.7 936.4 20073 2612.4 1178.1 365.1 105.5 943.3 20074 2623.1 1194.7 349.5 105.9 952.3 20081 2623.7 1207.5 322.5 104.0 968.0 20082 2640.9 1218.0 320.5 107.4 973.0 20083 2715.2 1258.6 330.5 109.3 994.7 20084 2792.7 1304.0 336.3 111.3 1019.2 20091 2868.0 1351.3 337.2 113.1 1044.3 20092 2944.3 1400.1 337.4 114.9 1069.9 20093 3019.4 1449.1 336.4 116.8 1095.2 20094 3093.5 1497.9 335.1 118.6 1120.0 20101 3166.1 1546.1 333.5 120.3 1144.2 20102 3236.8 1593.4 331.7 122.1 1167.6 20103 3305.8 1639.9 329.9 123.8 1190.2 20104 3373.1 1685.4 328.0 125.5 1212.2 20111 3439.0 1730.1 326.1 127.2 1233.7 20112 3503.8 1774.1 324.2 128.9 1254.6 20113 3567.5 1817.6 322.3 130.5 1275.1 20114 3630.6 1860.6 320.4 132.1 1295.4 20121 3693.2 1903.4 318.5 133.8 1315.5 20122 3755.5 1946.0 316.6 135.4 1335.4 20123 3817.8 1988.6 314.7 137.0 1355.3 20124 3880.2 2031.4 312.8 138.7 1375.3
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2312.4 709.6 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2464.6 758.2 1042.6 31.7 358.5 216.2 57.4 -278.7 20052 2495.6 760.3 1056.6 18.8 361.1 236.2 62.6 -269.6 20053 2540.2 782.1 1072.0 22.6 359.7 237.0 66.8 -364.8 20054 2578.4 764.5 1083.0 32.9 364.3 264.6 69.1 -253.7 20061 2621.8 805.9 1137.1 17.7 354.2 250.0 56.9 -208.0 20062 2672.0 809.2 1157.1 23.8 358.7 270.3 52.9 -224.7 20063 2708.1 816.2 1168.6 25.1 363.0 283.8 51.4 -218.5 20064 2668.8 816.0 1181.5 11.8 356.2 252.8 50.5 -153.2 20071 2792.5 832.5 1211.8 36.4 372.9 288.2 50.7 -225.1 20072 2810.3 851.1 1229.9 16.3 376.8 288.2 48.0 -211.3 20073 2856.8 869.1 1243.3 22.1 375.9 301.4 45.0 -244.4 20074 2859.4 871.6 1249.0 28.5 379.6 284.8 45.9 -236.3 20081 2949.1 898.0 1284.0 32.4 379.9 307.7 47.1 -325.4 20082 3270.2 918.1 1618.6 20.1 384.4 280.6 48.4 -629.3 20083 3115.9 934.1 1434.6 20.1 389.1 289.6 48.4 -400.7 20084 3042.8 951.3 1332.0 20.1 393.9 297.1 48.4 -250.1 20091 3091.4 968.2 1351.5 20.1 398.7 304.4 48.4 -223.4 20092 3140.1 985.1 1371.4 20.1 403.6 311.5 48.4 -195.8 20093 3188.9 1001.9 1391.5 20.1 408.6 318.4 48.4 -169.4 20094 3237.7 1018.5 1411.9 20.1 413.6 325.2 48.4 -144.2 20101 3286.6 1035.0 1432.6 20.1 418.7 331.8 48.4 -120.5 20102 3335.4 1051.3 1453.7 20.1 423.8 338.1 48.4 -98.6 20103 3384.0 1067.3 1475.0 20.1 429.0 344.2 48.4 -78.2 20104 3432.4 1082.9 1496.6 20.1 434.3 350.1 48.4 -59.3 20111 3480.7 1098.3 1518.6 20.1 439.6 355.6 48.4 -41.6 20112 3528.7 1113.4 1540.9 20.1 445.0 360.9 48.4 -24.9 20113 3576.4 1128.1 1563.5 20.1 450.5 365.9 48.4 -8.9 20114 3624.0 1142.6 1586.4 20.1 456.0 370.5 48.4 6.6 20121 3671.3 1156.9 1609.7 20.1 461.6 374.7 48.4 21.8 20122 3718.5 1170.9 1633.3 20.1 467.2 378.5 48.4 37.0 20123 3765.4 1184.7 1657.3 20.1 473.0 381.9 48.4 52.4 20124 3812.1 1198.3 1681.6 20.1 478.8 384.9 48.4 68.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1560.2 268.9 55.8 816.8 24.6 358.5 20052 1584.0 274.9 56.2 832.6 24.4 361.1 20053 1601.1 278.0 52.2 847.6 24.1 359.7 20054 1611.3 286.7 60.8 858.8 23.8 364.3 20061 1646.4 297.2 59.2 875.7 23.5 354.2 20062 1677.6 309.5 61.7 886.6 23.2 358.7 20063 1681.1 300.2 63.1 893.0 22.9 363.0 20064 1687.0 306.4 59.0 902.9 22.8 356.2 20071 1734.3 320.0 60.8 917.5 22.7 372.9 20072 1764.5 332.3 63.7 928.2 22.7 376.8 20073 1758.2 323.5 60.9 934.0 22.8 375.9 20074 1770.5 325.8 58.2 942.7 22.9 379.6 20081 1774.3 333.7 53.3 942.7 23.3 379.9 20082 1796.2 344.2 53.0 949.4 23.6 384.4 20083 1829.4 353.7 54.6 966.6 23.8 389.1 20084 1862.9 364.3 55.6 983.5 24.0 393.9 20091 1895.3 375.3 55.7 999.8 24.1 398.7 20092 1927.9 386.6 55.8 1016.0 24.3 403.6 20093 1960.3 397.9 55.6 1032.1 24.5 408.6 20094 1992.4 409.1 55.4 1048.1 24.7 413.6 20101 2024.1 420.1 55.1 1063.8 24.9 418.7 20102 2055.4 430.9 54.8 1079.3 25.0 423.8 20103 2086.3 441.4 54.5 1094.5 25.2 429.0 20104 2116.8 451.8 54.2 1109.6 25.4 434.3 20111 2147.0 461.9 53.9 1124.4 25.6 439.6 20112 2176.9 471.8 53.6 1139.1 25.8 445.0 20113 2206.6 481.6 53.3 1153.7 26.0 450.5 20114 2236.2 491.3 53.0 1168.1 26.2 456.0 20121 2265.7 500.9 52.6 1182.6 26.4 461.6 20122 2295.2 510.5 52.3 1197.0 26.6 467.2 20123 2324.9 520.0 52.0 1211.5 26.8 473.0 20124 2354.6 529.6 51.7 1226.0 27.0 478.8
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 28.0 20051 1519.1 1159.1 338.7 19.4 2.4 4.3 41.1 20052 1545.9 1174.1 352.0 17.0 2.5 5.3 38.1 20053 1582.0 1203.1 346.1 15.4 2.5 19.9 19.1 20054 1592.2 1228.4 346.5 14.2 2.5 5.6 19.1 20061 1588.8 1240.8 331.5 14.0 2.6 5.1 57.6 20062 1614.6 1260.2 338.1 13.8 2.7 5.2 63.0 20063 1649.0 1281.8 350.0 14.0 2.7 5.9 32.1 20064 1655.2 1295.8 343.6 13.0 2.8 5.6 31.8 20071 1711.1 1318.7 373.8 13.7 2.8 7.7 23.2 20072 1728.8 1344.4 356.8 13.9 2.7 16.4 35.7 20073 1753.4 1365.3 363.0 13.9 2.9 14.1 4.8 20074 1792.9 1395.2 373.3 14.1 2.9 13.2 -22.4 20081 1826.8 1426.3 379.0 13.9 3.0 10.6 -52.5 20082 1871.6 1461.9 388.6 13.9 2.9 10.1 -75.4 20083 1894.4 1478.9 394.5 13.9 2.9 10.1 -65.0 20084 1916.2 1496.9 398.2 13.9 2.9 10.1 -53.4 20091 1936.0 1514.4 400.5 13.9 2.9 10.1 -40.7 20092 1954.9 1531.5 402.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 -27.0 20093 1973.6 1548.4 404.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 -13.3 20094 1992.3 1564.9 406.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.1 20101 2010.9 1580.9 408.9 13.9 2.9 10.1 13.2 20102 2029.6 1596.4 412.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 25.8 20103 2048.2 1611.3 415.8 13.9 2.9 10.1 38.1 20104 2066.5 1625.5 419.9 13.9 2.9 10.1 50.3 20111 2084.6 1639.2 424.4 13.9 2.9 10.1 62.4 20112 2102.4 1652.2 429.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 74.5 20113 2119.7 1664.6 434.0 13.9 2.9 10.1 86.9 20114 2136.7 1676.4 439.2 13.9 2.9 10.1 99.5 20121 2153.2 1687.7 444.4 13.9 2.9 10.1 112.5 20122 2169.4 1698.6 449.6 13.9 2.9 10.1 125.9 20123 2185.2 1709.1 455.0 13.9 2.9 10.1 139.7 20124 2200.6 1719.3 460.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 154.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -230.0 141.3 108.3 539.3 -418.0 -140.9 20042 -280.3 84.7 101.0 616.2 -382.6 -139.0 20043 -256.4 129.4 31.4 619.3 -376.3 -147.4 20044 -244.4 -98.4 77.0 721.7 -349.8 -106.1 20051 -411.2 -29.8 140.8 683.1 -289.3 -93.5 20052 -467.5 62.6 98.7 689.1 -282.0 -100.8 20053 -400.0 200.3 23.2 658.9 -377.0 -105.4 20054 -452.3 -1.8 37.4 812.5 -271.8 -124.0 20061 -439.7 -148.1 124.7 768.8 -225.6 -80.2 20062 -452.2 -161.4 149.5 788.9 -241.7 -83.1 20063 -393.9 -196.9 111.7 825.6 -232.8 -113.7 20064 -323.5 -245.7 155.8 703.0 -175.2 -114.5 20071 -248.4 -285.1 126.2 777.7 -238.3 -132.2 20072 -328.0 -250.7 167.9 763.7 -227.6 -125.3 20073 -322.7 -110.4 170.9 682.0 -259.4 -160.4 20074 -225.1 -64.8 83.6 651.0 -255.3 -189.4 20081 -188.2 -66.8 116.9 693.0 -342.9 -212.0 20082 82.5 -17.5 115.6 712.6 -654.6 -238.6 20083 -104.1 -91.1 168.2 682.8 -426.0 -229.7 20084 -215.6 -115.2 128.6 697.3 -275.4 -219.6 20091 -206.5 -147.6 135.0 676.6 -248.8 -208.6 20092 -205.8 -177.5 141.3 659.6 -221.2 -196.5 20093 -211.5 -202.4 147.5 645.5 -194.8 -184.4 20094 -219.5 -223.5 153.7 631.4 -169.6 -172.5 20101 -228.1 -240.9 159.7 616.2 -145.9 -161.1 20102 -236.4 -254.3 165.6 599.1 -123.9 -150.1 20103 -243.9 -264.1 171.3 579.7 -103.6 -139.4 20104 -250.5 -271.0 176.9 558.2 -84.6 -128.9 20111 -256.0 -275.5 182.2 534.7 -66.9 -118.5 20112 -260.6 -278.0 187.4 509.5 -50.2 -108.1 20113 -264.7 -279.1 192.4 482.8 -34.1 -97.4 20114 -268.3 -278.9 197.3 455.0 -18.6 -86.5 20121 -271.8 -278.0 202.0 426.3 -3.3 -75.3 20122 -275.3 -276.5 206.5 397.0 12.0 -63.6 20123 -279.1 -274.8 210.9 367.1 27.4 -51.5 20124 -283.3 -273.0 215.2 336.8 43.2 -39.0 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11405.6 8010.1 969.6 2284.2 4756.3 20042 11610.4 8134.9 974.8 2327.7 4832.4 20043 11779.3 8245.0 986.9 2353.5 4904.6 20044 11948.4 8393.3 1004.1 2409.3 4979.9 20051 12155.3 8480.9 1006.6 2432.4 5041.9 20052 12297.6 8610.8 1033.3 2469.9 5107.6 20053 12538.2 8791.1 1038.7 2554.8 5197.6 20054 12696.4 8893.7 1004.4 2599.4 5289.9 20061 12959.6 9026.3 1046.5 2629.3 5350.5 20062 13134.2 9161.9 1049.1 2681.5 5431.3 20063 13249.5 9283.6 1054.4 2726.3 5502.9 20064 13370.1 9357.0 1058.2 2703.8 5595.0 20071 13510.9 9524.9 1076.6 2761.5 5686.8 20072 13735.4 9657.4 1085.3 2817.7 5754.4 20073 13950.5 9765.6 1086.2 2846.6 5832.8 20074 14040.2 9892.7 1083.0 2906.2 5903.5 20081 14161.3 10002.3 1071.0 2950.7 5980.6 20082 14256.4 10144.2 1058.7 3027.8 6057.7 20083 14551.0 10327.7 1074.1 3083.8 6169.9 20084 14866.6 10508.6 1083.6 3140.1 6285.0 20091 15168.0 10682.6 1092.3 3193.2 6397.1 20092 15468.7 10855.9 1100.8 3245.6 6509.5 20093 15761.1 11028.3 1109.0 3297.5 6621.8 20094 16047.9 11198.7 1116.5 3348.5 6733.6 20101 16327.8 11366.6 1123.4 3398.5 6844.7 20102 16600.0 11532.0 1129.5 3447.5 6955.0 20103 16865.2 11695.0 1135.0 3495.4 7064.6 20104 17123.8 11855.6 1139.9 3542.3 7173.4 20111 17376.5 12014.2 1144.4 3588.4 7281.4 20112 17623.9 12171.1 1148.5 3633.8 7388.8 20113 17866.9 12326.6 1152.3 3678.7 7495.7 20114 18106.0 12481.4 1156.0 3723.2 7602.2 20121 18342.2 12635.7 1159.6 3767.4 7708.7 20122 18576.0 12790.0 1163.1 3811.6 7815.2 20123 18808.1 12944.6 1166.7 3855.8 7922.0 20124 19039.2 13099.8 1170.4 3900.2 8029.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1769.6 1732.6 1100.4 632.2 37.0 20042 1875.6 1806.6 1135.5 671.1 69.0 20043 1929.7 1864.7 1172.7 692.0 65.0 20044 1979.5 1916.1 1209.5 706.6 63.4 20051 2045.9 1963.3 1233.6 729.7 82.6 20052 2039.7 2020.3 1261.0 759.3 19.4 20053 2084.2 2073.2 1286.1 787.1 11.0 20054 2174.6 2114.3 1311.8 802.5 60.3 20061 2236.7 2183.6 1375.5 808.1 53.1 20062 2253.8 2187.9 1408.3 779.6 65.9 20063 2231.7 2169.2 1433.0 736.2 62.5 20064 2159.4 2143.6 1439.6 704.0 15.8 20071 2117.8 2133.4 1456.4 677.0 -15.6 20072 2145.2 2148.1 1493.7 654.4 -2.9 20073 2164.0 2141.0 1522.9 618.1 23.0 20074 2101.4 2113.4 1542.1 571.3 -12.0 20081 2066.6 2081.7 1553.6 528.1 -15.1 20082 1979.9 2074.9 1571.5 503.4 -95.0 20083 2021.2 2009.3 1572.5 436.8 11.9 20084 2127.9 2095.3 1621.6 473.8 32.5 20091 2193.1 2131.4 1650.5 481.0 61.6 20092 2262.2 2183.1 1684.8 498.3 79.0 20093 2326.9 2240.5 1719.3 521.3 86.3 20094 2388.6 2297.6 1751.7 545.9 91.0 20101 2445.3 2352.5 1782.4 570.1 92.8 20102 2495.4 2402.7 1810.2 592.4 92.8 20103 2539.6 2447.8 1835.3 612.5 91.8 20104 2578.3 2487.8 1857.6 630.2 90.4 20111 2611.9 2522.8 1877.2 645.6 89.1 20112 2641.1 2553.2 1894.2 658.9 88.0 20113 2666.5 2579.3 1908.9 670.4 87.2 20114 2688.5 2601.7 1921.5 680.2 86.7 20121 2707.7 2621.0 1932.2 688.8 86.6 20122 2724.5 2637.6 1941.3 696.3 86.9 20123 2739.3 2651.9 1949.1 702.8 87.3 20124 2752.4 2664.4 1955.8 708.6 88.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -543.2 1140.9 1684.1 2169.1 806.2 1362.9 20042 -603.0 1172.8 1775.8 2202.9 821.9 1381.0 20043 -632.7 1187.3 1820.0 2237.3 839.4 1397.9 20044 -682.6 1228.6 1911.2 2258.2 835.0 1423.2 20051 -670.7 1266.8 1937.5 2299.2 861.0 1438.2 20052 -680.9 1305.1 1986.0 2328.0 867.1 1460.9 20053 -725.1 1314.5 2039.6 2388.0 894.2 1493.8 20054 -777.8 1359.6 2137.4 2405.9 879.5 1526.4 20061 -761.7 1423.2 2184.9 2458.3 922.8 1535.5 20062 -777.2 1462.8 2240.0 2495.7 928.5 1567.2 20063 -792.7 1492.5 2285.2 2526.9 935.5 1591.4 20064 -697.7 1544.5 2242.2 2551.4 941.7 1609.7 20071 -728.9 1560.5 2289.4 2597.1 950.3 1646.8 20072 -723.1 1614.4 2337.5 2655.9 974.6 1681.3 20073 -682.6 1714.9 2397.5 2703.5 994.0 1709.5 20074 -696.8 1759.7 2456.5 2742.9 998.3 1744.6 20081 -705.7 1820.8 2526.5 2798.1 1026.5 1771.6 20082 -737.3 1907.5 2644.8 2869.6 1056.0 1813.6 20083 -706.4 1941.5 2648.0 2908.6 1073.7 1834.9 20084 -719.8 1980.2 2700.0 2949.9 1092.6 1857.3 20091 -698.1 2047.7 2745.7 2990.4 1111.3 1879.2 20092 -680.0 2116.5 2796.6 3030.7 1129.9 1900.8 20093 -664.8 2186.8 2851.6 3070.7 1148.4 1922.2 20094 -649.5 2258.5 2908.0 3110.2 1166.9 1943.3 20101 -633.2 2331.4 2964.6 3149.2 1185.2 1964.0 20102 -614.9 2405.4 3020.3 3187.5 1203.3 1984.1 20103 -594.4 2480.4 3074.9 3225.0 1221.2 2003.8 20104 -571.7 2556.5 3128.2 3261.6 1238.7 2022.9 20111 -547.0 2633.4 3180.4 3297.4 1256.0 2041.4 20112 -520.6 2711.2 3231.8 3332.3 1273.0 2059.3 20113 -492.7 2790.0 3282.7 3366.4 1289.7 2076.7 20114 -463.6 2869.8 3333.4 3399.8 1306.2 2093.6 20121 -433.7 2950.5 3384.2 3432.5 1322.4 2110.1 20122 -403.1 3032.5 3435.5 3464.6 1338.5 2126.1 20123 -371.9 3115.6 3487.5 3496.2 1354.3 2141.9 20124 -340.4 3200.0 3540.4 3527.4 1370.1 2157.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 10543.6 7485.8 1066.2 2156.7 4262.9 20042 10634.2 7530.8 1071.3 2164.9 4294.6 20043 10728.7 7598.1 1091.5 2181.4 4325.2 20044 10796.4 7678.7 1110.1 2207.5 4361.1 20051 10875.8 7711.5 1111.6 2220.6 4379.3 20052 10946.1 7785.6 1143.7 2243.7 4398.2 20053 11050.0 7858.4 1158.9 2260.1 4439.4 20054 11086.1 7876.4 1123.3 2286.2 4466.9 20061 11217.3 7968.5 1173.1 2310.7 4484.7 20062 11291.7 8022.7 1178.3 2328.7 4515.7 20063 11314.1 8068.0 1188.4 2342.0 4537.6 20064 11356.4 8142.0 1200.7 2359.8 4581.5 20071 11357.8 8223.6 1227.3 2380.1 4616.2 20072 11491.4 8266.5 1242.3 2391.5 4632.7 20073 11625.8 8307.8 1249.4 2398.6 4659.8 20074 11620.7 8326.8 1250.6 2400.1 4676.1 20081 11646.0 8339.3 1237.0 2397.9 4704.4 20082 11700.7 8366.8 1227.7 2421.7 4717.4 20083 11781.3 8445.2 1248.1 2441.3 4755.8 20084 11882.5 8498.8 1259.0 2455.2 4784.6 20091 11975.2 8550.7 1270.0 2467.6 4813.2 20092 12069.9 8602.7 1281.1 2479.6 4842.1 20093 12160.2 8654.6 1292.2 2491.3 4871.1 20094 12248.1 8706.1 1303.0 2502.8 4900.3 20101 12333.4 8757.3 1313.6 2514.0 4929.7 20102 12416.0 8808.6 1323.9 2525.0 4959.7 20103 12497.0 8860.3 1334.2 2535.9 4990.3 20104 12577.0 8912.9 1344.5 2546.8 5021.6 20111 12656.6 8966.4 1354.8 2558.0 5053.6 20112 12736.2 9021.2 1365.4 2569.3 5086.6 20113 12816.2 9077.6 1376.2 2581.0 5120.4 20114 12897.1 9135.6 1387.5 2593.0 5155.1 20121 12979.0 9195.4 1399.3 2605.5 5190.7 20122 13062.2 9257.2 1411.5 2618.4 5227.3 20123 13146.7 9320.9 1424.3 2631.8 5264.7 20124 13232.8 9386.5 1437.7 2645.7 5303.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1674.6 1639.6 1099.1 540.5 35.0 20042 1754.1 1689.2 1127.5 561.7 64.9 20043 1788.3 1728.2 1160.7 567.5 60.1 20044 1817.7 1760.5 1189.6 570.9 57.2 20051 1857.1 1782.5 1200.4 582.1 74.6 20052 1831.4 1814.7 1218.9 595.8 16.7 20053 1849.8 1838.8 1237.1 601.7 11.0 20054 1903.7 1850.2 1248.2 602.0 53.5 20061 1937.6 1891.7 1295.2 596.5 45.9 20062 1942.4 1885.5 1315.4 570.1 56.9 20063 1922.6 1869.3 1332.6 536.7 53.3 20064 1850.8 1837.7 1329.3 508.4 13.1 20071 1811.8 1826.8 1340.4 486.4 -15.0 20072 1842.7 1845.5 1373.8 471.7 -2.8 20073 1864.1 1848.1 1402.8 445.3 16.0 20074 1818.1 1826.2 1414.6 411.6 -8.1 20081 1795.9 1806.1 1423.1 383.0 -10.2 20082 1736.2 1798.4 1431.3 367.1 -62.2 20083 1751.6 1743.9 1424.7 319.2 7.7 20084 1825.2 1804.4 1458.2 346.2 20.8 20091 1864.8 1825.8 1474.2 351.7 39.0 20092 1909.3 1859.9 1495.2 364.7 49.4 20093 1951.8 1898.4 1516.4 381.9 53.4 20094 1992.4 1936.7 1536.1 400.7 55.7 20101 2030.0 1973.8 1554.6 419.2 56.2 20102 2063.4 2007.8 1571.1 436.7 55.6 20103 2093.0 2038.5 1585.7 452.8 54.5 20104 2119.1 2065.9 1598.4 467.4 53.2 20111 2142.2 2090.2 1609.5 480.7 52.0 20112 2162.5 2111.6 1619.0 492.6 50.9 20113 2180.6 2130.5 1627.0 503.5 50.1 20114 2196.7 2147.3 1633.8 513.5 49.5 20121 2211.3 2162.3 1639.6 522.7 49.1 20122 2224.7 2175.8 1644.5 531.4 48.8 20123 2237.0 2188.2 1648.7 539.5 48.8 20124 2248.6 2199.7 1652.3 547.4 48.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -549.1 1101.8 1650.9 1925.4 20042 -591.0 1119.4 1710.4 1931.8 20043 -602.7 1128.0 1730.7 1939.2 20044 -632.3 1155.3 1787.6 1930.4 20051 -623.7 1177.9 1801.6 1929.4 20052 -601.3 1203.1 1804.4 1933.8 20053 -603.6 1204.3 1807.9 1950.3 20054 -637.8 1235.7 1873.5 1941.7 20061 -635.9 1284.3 1920.2 1960.5 20062 -619.5 1301.4 1920.9 1966.4 20063 -623.1 1312.6 1935.7 1974.8 20064 -584.2 1361.1 1945.3 1982.6 20071 -618.7 1363.1 1981.8 1986.7 20072 -571.2 1392.2 1963.4 2006.2 20073 -511.8 1466.2 1978.0 2025.3 20074 -484.5 1482.0 1966.5 2029.2 20081 -462.0 1500.6 1962.6 2039.3 20082 -395.1 1534.1 1929.2 2056.8 20083 -385.0 1541.7 1926.7 2049.6 20084 -410.3 1549.4 1959.7 2052.8 20091 -408.4 1579.5 1987.9 2056.1 20092 -409.6 1610.1 2019.7 2059.4 20093 -412.9 1641.4 2054.3 2062.8 20094 -416.5 1673.3 2089.8 2066.1 20101 -419.3 1705.8 2125.2 2069.4 20102 -420.8 1739.0 2159.7 2072.8 20103 -420.5 1772.7 2193.2 2076.2 20104 -418.5 1807.2 2225.7 2079.6 20111 -415.0 1842.3 2257.3 2083.0 20112 -410.0 1878.1 2288.0 2086.4 20113 -403.7 1914.6 2318.3 2089.8 20114 -396.5 1951.8 2348.3 2093.3 20121 -388.5 1989.7 2378.2 2096.7 20122 -379.9 2028.3 2408.2 2100.2 20123 -370.8 2067.7 2438.5 2103.7 20124 -361.5 2107.9 2469.4 2107.2
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2185.9 894.9 335.4 104.0 835.0 20052 2226.0 917.8 339.8 108.9 842.5 20053 2175.4 944.2 318.0 107.0 857.0 20054 2324.7 965.8 370.6 105.2 865.7 20061 2413.8 1018.8 377.3 105.1 893.6 20062 2447.3 1031.6 394.4 106.0 895.7 20063 2489.6 1056.0 404.6 106.5 902.6 20064 2515.6 1093.2 379.5 105.1 917.7 20071 2567.4 1139.5 365.6 104.8 937.1 20072 2599.0 1157.1 381.5 103.7 936.4 20073 2612.4 1178.1 365.1 105.5 943.3 20074 2623.1 1194.7 349.5 105.9 952.3 20081 2623.7 1207.5 322.5 104.0 968.0 20082 2640.9 1218.0 320.5 107.4 973.0 20083 2715.2 1258.6 330.5 109.3 994.7 20084 2792.7 1304.0 336.3 111.3 1019.2 20091 2868.0 1351.3 337.2 113.1 1044.3 20092 2944.3 1400.1 337.4 114.9 1069.9 20093 3019.4 1449.1 336.4 116.8 1095.2 20094 3093.5 1497.9 335.1 118.6 1120.0 20101 3166.1 1546.1 333.5 120.3 1144.2 20102 3236.8 1593.4 331.7 122.1 1167.6 20103 3305.8 1639.9 329.9 123.8 1190.2 20104 3373.1 1685.4 328.0 125.5 1212.2 20111 3439.0 1730.1 326.1 127.2 1233.7 20112 3503.8 1774.1 324.2 128.9 1254.6 20113 3567.5 1817.6 322.3 130.5 1275.1 20114 3630.6 1860.6 320.4 132.1 1295.4 20121 3693.2 1903.4 318.5 133.8 1315.5 20122 3755.5 1946.0 316.6 135.4 1335.4 20123 3817.8 1988.6 314.7 137.0 1355.3 20124 3880.2 2031.4 312.8 138.7 1375.3
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2312.4 709.6 1019.5 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 1010.7 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 1016.3 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1027.7 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2464.6 758.2 1074.3 1042.6 31.7 358.5 216.2 57.4 -278.7 20052 2495.6 760.3 1075.4 1056.6 18.8 361.1 236.2 62.6 -269.6 20053 2540.2 782.1 1094.6 1072.0 22.6 359.7 237.0 66.8 -364.8 20054 2578.4 764.5 1115.9 1083.0 32.9 364.3 264.6 69.1 -253.7 20061 2621.8 805.9 1154.8 1137.1 17.7 354.2 250.0 56.9 -208.0 20062 2672.0 809.2 1180.9 1157.1 23.8 358.7 270.3 52.9 -224.7 20063 2708.1 816.2 1193.7 1168.6 25.1 363.0 283.8 51.4 -218.5 20064 2668.8 816.0 1193.3 1181.5 11.8 356.2 252.8 50.5 -153.2 20071 2792.5 832.5 1248.2 1211.8 36.4 372.9 288.2 50.7 -225.1 20072 2810.3 851.1 1246.2 1229.9 16.3 376.8 288.2 48.0 -211.3 20073 2856.8 869.1 1265.4 1243.3 22.1 375.9 301.4 45.0 -244.4 20074 2859.4 871.6 1277.5 1249.0 28.5 379.6 284.8 45.9 -236.3 20081 2949.1 898.0 1316.4 1284.0 32.4 379.9 307.7 47.1 -325.4 20082 3270.2 918.1 1638.7 1618.6 20.1 384.4 280.6 48.4 -629.3 20083 3115.9 934.1 1454.7 1434.6 20.1 389.1 289.6 48.4 -400.7 20084 3042.8 951.3 1352.1 1332.0 20.1 393.9 297.1 48.4 -250.1 20091 3091.4 968.2 1371.6 1351.5 20.1 398.7 304.4 48.4 -223.4 20092 3140.1 985.1 1391.5 1371.4 20.1 403.6 311.5 48.4 -195.8 20093 3188.9 1001.9 1411.6 1391.5 20.1 408.6 318.4 48.4 -169.4 20094 3237.7 1018.5 1432.0 1411.9 20.1 413.6 325.2 48.4 -144.2 20101 3286.6 1035.0 1452.7 1432.6 20.1 418.7 331.8 48.4 -120.5 20102 3335.4 1051.3 1473.8 1453.7 20.1 423.8 338.1 48.4 -98.6 20103 3384.0 1067.3 1495.1 1475.0 20.1 429.0 344.2 48.4 -78.2 20104 3432.4 1082.9 1516.7 1496.6 20.1 434.3 350.1 48.4 -59.3 20111 3480.7 1098.3 1538.7 1518.6 20.1 439.6 355.6 48.4 -41.6 20112 3528.7 1113.4 1561.0 1540.9 20.1 445.0 360.9 48.4 -24.9 20113 3576.4 1128.1 1583.6 1563.5 20.1 450.5 365.9 48.4 -8.9 20114 3624.0 1142.6 1606.5 1586.4 20.1 456.0 370.5 48.4 6.6 20121 3671.3 1156.9 1629.8 1609.7 20.1 461.6 374.7 48.4 21.8 20122 3718.5 1170.9 1653.4 1633.3 20.1 467.2 378.5 48.4 37.0 20123 3765.4 1184.7 1677.4 1657.3 20.1 473.0 381.9 48.4 52.4 20124 3812.1 1198.3 1701.7 1681.6 20.1 478.8 384.9 48.4 68.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1560.2 268.9 55.8 816.8 24.6 358.5 20052 1584.0 274.9 56.2 832.6 24.4 361.1 20053 1601.1 278.0 52.2 847.6 24.1 359.7 20054 1611.3 286.7 60.8 858.8 23.8 364.3 20061 1646.4 297.2 59.2 875.7 23.5 354.2 20062 1677.6 309.5 61.7 886.6 23.2 358.7 20063 1681.1 300.2 63.1 893.0 22.9 363.0 20064 1687.0 306.4 59.0 902.9 22.8 356.2 20071 1734.3 320.0 60.8 917.5 22.7 372.9 20072 1764.5 332.3 63.7 928.2 22.7 376.8 20073 1758.2 323.5 60.9 934.0 22.8 375.9 20074 1770.5 325.8 58.2 942.7 22.9 379.6 20081 1774.3 333.7 53.3 942.7 23.3 379.9 20082 1796.2 344.2 53.0 949.4 23.6 384.4 20083 1829.4 353.7 54.6 966.6 23.8 389.1 20084 1862.9 364.3 55.6 983.5 24.0 393.9 20091 1895.3 375.3 55.7 999.8 24.1 398.7 20092 1927.9 386.6 55.8 1016.0 24.3 403.6 20093 1960.3 397.9 55.6 1032.1 24.5 408.6 20094 1992.4 409.1 55.4 1048.1 24.7 413.6 20101 2024.1 420.1 55.1 1063.8 24.9 418.7 20102 2055.4 430.9 54.8 1079.3 25.0 423.8 20103 2086.3 441.4 54.5 1094.5 25.2 429.0 20104 2116.8 451.8 54.2 1109.6 25.4 434.3 20111 2147.0 461.9 53.9 1124.4 25.6 439.6 20112 2176.9 471.8 53.6 1139.1 25.8 445.0 20113 2206.6 481.6 53.3 1153.7 26.0 450.5 20114 2236.2 491.3 53.0 1168.1 26.2 456.0 20121 2265.7 500.9 52.6 1182.6 26.4 461.6 20122 2295.2 510.5 52.3 1197.0 26.6 467.2 20123 2324.9 520.0 52.0 1211.5 26.8 473.0 20124 2354.6 529.6 51.7 1226.0 27.0 478.8
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 0.0 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 0.0 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 0.0 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 0.0 28.0 20051 1519.1 1159.1 338.7 19.4 2.4 4.3 0.0 41.1 20052 1545.9 1174.1 352.0 17.0 2.5 5.3 0.0 38.1 20053 1582.0 1203.1 346.1 15.4 2.5 19.9 0.0 19.1 20054 1592.2 1228.4 346.5 14.2 2.5 5.6 0.0 19.1 20061 1588.8 1240.8 331.5 14.0 2.6 5.1 0.0 57.6 20062 1614.6 1260.2 338.1 13.8 2.7 5.2 0.0 63.0 20063 1649.0 1281.8 350.0 14.0 2.7 5.9 0.0 32.1 20064 1655.2 1295.8 343.6 13.0 2.8 5.6 0.0 31.8 20071 1711.1 1318.7 373.8 13.7 2.8 7.7 0.0 23.2 20072 1728.8 1344.4 356.8 13.9 2.7 16.4 0.0 35.7 20073 1753.4 1365.3 363.0 13.9 2.9 14.1 0.0 4.8 20074 1792.9 1395.2 373.3 14.1 2.9 13.2 0.0 -22.4 20081 1826.8 1426.3 379.0 13.9 3.0 10.6 0.0 -52.5 20082 1871.6 1461.9 388.6 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -75.4 20083 1894.4 1478.9 394.5 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -65.0 20084 1916.2 1496.9 398.2 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -53.4 20091 1936.0 1514.4 400.5 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -40.7 20092 1954.9 1531.5 402.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -27.0 20093 1973.6 1548.4 404.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 -13.3 20094 1992.3 1564.9 406.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 0.1 20101 2010.9 1580.9 408.9 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 13.2 20102 2029.6 1596.4 412.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 25.8 20103 2048.2 1611.3 415.8 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 38.1 20104 2066.5 1625.5 419.9 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 50.3 20111 2084.6 1639.2 424.4 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 62.4 20112 2102.4 1652.2 429.1 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 74.5 20113 2119.7 1664.6 434.0 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 86.9 20114 2136.7 1676.4 439.2 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 99.5 20121 2153.2 1687.7 444.4 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 112.5 20122 2169.4 1698.6 449.6 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 125.9 20123 2185.2 1709.1 455.0 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 139.7 20124 2200.6 1719.3 460.3 13.9 2.9 10.1 0.0 154.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 108.2 107.0 90.9 105.9 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.0 107.5 112.5 20043 109.8 108.5 90.4 107.9 113.4 20044 110.7 109.3 90.5 109.1 114.2 20051 111.8 110.0 90.6 109.5 115.1 20052 112.3 110.6 90.3 110.1 116.1 20053 113.5 111.9 89.6 113.0 117.1 20054 114.5 112.9 89.4 113.7 118.4 20061 115.5 113.3 89.2 113.8 119.3 20062 116.3 114.2 89.0 115.2 120.3 20063 117.1 115.1 88.7 116.4 121.3 20064 117.7 114.9 88.1 114.6 122.1 20071 119.0 115.8 87.7 116.0 123.2 20072 119.5 116.8 87.4 117.8 124.2 20073 120.0 117.5 86.9 118.7 125.2 20074 120.8 118.8 86.6 121.1 126.2 20081 121.6 119.9 86.6 123.1 127.1 20082 121.8 121.2 86.2 125.0 128.4 20083 123.5 122.3 86.1 126.3 129.7 20084 125.1 123.6 86.1 127.9 131.4 20091 126.7 124.9 86.0 129.4 132.9 20092 128.2 126.2 85.9 130.9 134.4 20093 129.6 127.4 85.8 132.4 135.9 20094 131.0 128.6 85.7 133.8 137.4 20101 132.4 129.8 85.5 135.2 138.8 20102 133.7 130.9 85.3 136.5 140.2 20103 135.0 132.0 85.1 137.8 141.6 20104 136.2 133.0 84.8 139.1 142.9 20111 137.3 134.0 84.5 140.3 144.1 20112 138.4 134.9 84.1 141.4 145.3 20113 139.4 135.8 83.7 142.5 146.4 20114 140.4 136.6 83.3 143.6 147.5 20121 141.3 137.4 82.9 144.6 148.5 20122 142.2 138.2 82.4 145.6 149.5 20123 143.1 138.9 81.9 146.5 150.5 20124 143.9 139.6 81.4 147.4 151.4
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 105.7 100.1 117.0 103.5 102.0 112.7 20042 107.0 100.7 119.5 104.8 103.8 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.3 105.2 115.4 20044 108.9 101.7 123.8 106.3 106.9 117.0 20051 110.2 102.8 125.4 107.5 107.5 119.2 20052 111.3 103.5 127.4 108.5 110.1 120.4 20053 112.8 104.0 130.8 109.2 112.8 122.4 20054 114.3 105.1 133.3 110.0 114.1 123.9 20061 115.4 106.2 135.5 110.8 113.8 125.4 20062 116.1 107.1 136.7 112.4 116.6 126.9 20063 116.1 107.5 137.2 113.7 118.1 128.0 20064 116.7 108.3 138.5 113.5 115.3 128.7 20071 116.8 108.7 139.2 114.5 115.5 130.7 20072 116.4 108.7 138.7 116.0 119.1 132.4 20073 115.9 108.6 138.8 117.0 121.2 133.5 20074 115.7 109.0 138.8 118.7 124.9 135.2 20081 115.3 109.2 137.9 121.3 128.7 137.2 20082 115.4 109.8 137.1 124.3 137.1 139.5 20083 115.2 110.4 136.8 125.9 137.4 141.9 20084 116.1 111.2 136.9 127.8 137.8 143.7 20091 116.7 112.0 136.8 129.6 138.1 145.4 20092 117.4 112.7 136.6 131.4 138.5 147.2 20093 118.0 113.4 136.5 133.2 138.8 148.9 20094 118.6 114.0 136.3 135.0 139.2 150.5 20101 119.2 114.7 136.0 136.7 139.5 152.2 20102 119.7 115.2 135.7 138.3 139.8 153.8 20103 120.1 115.7 135.3 139.9 140.2 155.3 20104 120.4 116.2 134.8 141.5 140.5 156.8 20111 120.7 116.6 134.3 142.9 140.9 158.3 20112 120.9 117.0 133.8 144.4 141.2 159.7 20113 121.1 117.3 133.1 145.7 141.6 161.1 20114 121.2 117.6 132.5 147.0 142.0 162.4 20121 121.2 117.8 131.8 148.3 142.3 163.7 20122 121.2 118.1 131.0 149.5 142.7 165.0 20123 121.2 118.2 130.3 150.7 143.0 166.2 20124 121.1 118.4 129.5 151.8 143.4 167.4
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment