US Forecast: April 30, 2009
Forecast Period

2009:2--2012:4 (15 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 29, 2009.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2009:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: April 30, 2009, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2009:1.

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2009:1-1993.3  

TRGH          6.0                  6.2       
COG           2.0                  3.8       
JG            0.0                 -0.6       
TRGS          5.0                  6.5       
TRSH          2.0                  5.1       
COS          -3.0/1.0              3.2       
JS           -2.0/0.0              1.4       
EX           -4.0/3.0/7.0          4.8
PIM           4.0                  0.7

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGH is nominal federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGS is nominal federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSH is nominal state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator.

-3.0/1.0 for COS means that COS was assumed to fall at a 3 percent annual rate for the first three quarters, 2009:2--2009:4, and then to grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent after that. -2.0/0.0 for JS means that JS was assumed to fall at an annual rate of 2.0 percent for the first three quarters and then to remain unchanged after that. -4.0/3.0/7.0 for EX means that EX was assumed to fall at an annual rate of 4.0 percent for the first three quarters, then to grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent for the next four, 2010:1--2010:4, and then to grow at an annual rate of 7.0 percent after that. All tax rates for the baseline forecast were taken to remain unchanged from their 2009:1 values.

The above assumptions have state and local governments contracting some for 2009 and then returning to normal. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions. Exports are assumed to fall in 2009 and then begin growing again in 2010.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGH) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGS) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSH). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGH. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGS was increased and then TRSH increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGH rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGH. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGH and COG.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGH is $172 billion larger in fiscal 2009, $370 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $103 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $12 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $11 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. For nominal government spending on goods (PG*COG) I have assumed it to be $21 billion larger at an annual rate in 2009:2, $29 billion larger at an annual rate in 2009:3, $29 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $31 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $24 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $17 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. To get the increases for COG, which is in real terms, I have divided the above increases by values of PG that are close to the predicted values in the forecast. The total nominal increase over the four-year period of the forecast is $762 billion, of which $660 billion is in transfer payments and $102 billion is in purchases of goods.

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGH and COG from their above baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGH     COG

2009:2  320.0    16.4
2009:3  370.0    23.2 
2009:4  370.0    22.8
2010:1  370.0    22.8
2010:2  370.0    22.8
2010:3  370.0    22.4
2010:4  102.8    24.0
2011:1  102.8    24.0
2011:2  102.8    23.6
2011:3  102.8    23.6
2011:4   11.6    18.0
2012:1   11.6    18.0
2012:2   11.6    17.6
2012:3   11.6    17.6
2012:4   11.6    12.0

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $271.6 billion, and the value for 2009:1 is $217.0 billion (both at an annual rate). For the forecast the value of CTGB in each of the three remaining quarters of 2009 was taken to be $200 billion (again, at an annual rate) and then zero after that.

The Forecast

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing modestly in the rest of 2009 (0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 percent, respectively, for the three quarters) and then picking up in 2010. (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) It falls back down in 2011 as the stimulus measures subside. The unemployment rate rises to 9.4 percent by 2009:4 and then begins falling slightly. It is 8.4 percent in 2012:4. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs falling by 1.72 million in the rest of 2009.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is predicted to be about 1.0 percent in the next four quarters. It then gradually rises to 3.1 percent by the end of 2012.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be essentially zero throughout the forecast period. This prediction is driven by the high unemployment rates and the low rates of inflation.

Federal Government Budget: The federal government budget deficit, variable SGP, is predicted to be about $1.2 trillion for the next six quarters and then about $1 trillion after that. Variable SGP does not reflect the bailout spending (variable CTGB) since this is counted as capital transfers. Because CTGB is positive (see above), the debt of the federal government is increasing somewhat faster than the values of SGP would imply. The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $10.306 trillion at the end of 2012, which is 62.8 percent of nominal GDP (variable GDP). This is up from 41.3 percent in 2009:1. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, remain modest, however, because of the low interest rates. The value of INTG in 2012:4 is $438.2 billion (at an annual rate), up from $223.4 billion in 2009:1.

U.S. Current Account: The U.S. current account deficit, variable SR, is forecast to rise from $371.1 billion in 2009:2 to $780.1 billion in 2012:4.

Comments on the Baseline Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

One of the reasons the model is predicting slow growth for the rest of 2009 in spite of the stimulus measures is the negative wealth effect from the past fall in stock prices and housing prices. Why, however, is the economy predicted to be no worse? Why no predicted further large decreases in real GDP? One reason is that model is predicting a large inventory correction in 2009:2. Inventory investent (variable IVF) was very low in 2009:1, and it is not predicted to remain this low. The predicted change in IVF in 2009:2 is large. Also, there were two large negative residuals in 2009:1. One in the housing investment equation (IHH), and one in the plant and equipment investment equation (IKF). (The residual in the IHH equation is after correcting for serial correlation of the error term.) For the forecast the future error terms are assumed to be zero, and this, other things being equal, results in positive predicted changes in IHH and IKF in 2009:2. In the model the error terms are random shocks with means zero, and so zero is used for the future values. In order for the model to predict a much worse economy, one would have to put in some large future negative shocks, like the observed shocks to the IHH and IKF equations 2009:1, which has not been done. It may be, of course, that there will be large future negative shocks to the investment and consumption equations, due, say, to financial issues that are not in the model. The model, for example, does not account for possible credit rationing on consumers and investors from the financial distress. If there are large future negative shocks, the current forecast will turn out to be too optimistic. If you have views about the size of possible shocks to some of the equations, you can put these shocks into the model and examine the results. The following are other experiments that might also be of interest.

Regarding inflation, you may want to increase PIM if you think oil prices will begin to rise again or the dollar to depreciate. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 4.0 percent throughout the forecast period, which may be low. If you increase PIM, inflation will, of course, be higher than is currently forecast.

If you think housing prices will fall further, you can decrease PSI14, which will lower PKH relative to PD and decrease housing wealth, PIH*KH. This will affect consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3).

Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

If you have different views about the stimulus bill than those used for the forecast, it is easy to run alternative experiments. The simplest thing to do, as discussed above, is to put all the changes in TRGH and COG. Remember that TRGH is in nominal terms and COG is in real terms.

You may also want to raise tax rates in 2011 and 2012, say the federal personal income tax rate D1G. There is current discussion that some taxes will have to be raised in 2011 and 2012 to keep the federal government deficit under control.

Another change is to change the assumptions about the bailout measures, namely the values of CTGB. If you think the bailout will cost more than the values used for CTGB, you can increase CTGB. The main effect of increase CTGB is to increase the federal government debt, variable -AG.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2000 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 10543.6 3.0 4262.9 4.1 2156.7 4.6 1066.2 5.8 20042 10634.2 3.5 4294.6 3.0 2164.9 1.5 1071.3 1.9 20043 10728.7 3.6 4325.2 2.9 2181.4 3.1 1091.5 7.8 20044 10796.4 2.5 4361.1 3.4 2207.5 4.9 1110.1 7.0 20051 10875.8 3.0 4379.3 1.7 2220.6 2.4 1111.6 0.5 20052 10946.1 2.6 4398.2 1.7 2243.7 4.2 1143.7 12.1 20053 11050.0 3.9 4439.4 3.8 2260.1 3.0 1158.9 5.4 20054 11086.1 1.3 4466.9 2.5 2286.2 4.7 1123.3 -11.7 20061 11217.3 4.8 4484.7 1.6 2310.7 4.4 1173.1 18.9 20062 11291.7 2.7 4515.7 2.8 2328.7 3.2 1178.3 1.8 20063 11314.1 0.8 4537.6 2.0 2342.0 2.3 1188.4 3.5 20064 11356.4 1.5 4581.5 3.9 2359.8 3.1 1200.7 4.2 20071 11357.8 0.0 4616.2 3.1 2380.1 3.5 1227.3 9.2 20072 11491.4 4.8 4632.7 1.4 2391.5 1.9 1242.3 5.0 20073 11625.8 4.8 4659.8 2.4 2398.6 1.2 1249.4 2.3 20074 11620.7 -0.2 4676.1 1.4 2400.1 0.3 1250.6 0.4 20081 11646.0 0.9 4704.4 2.4 2397.9 -0.4 1237.0 -4.3 20082 11727.4 2.8 4712.1 0.7 2420.7 3.9 1228.3 -2.8 20083 11712.4 -0.5 4711.3 -0.1 2376.3 -7.1 1180.1 -14.8 20084 11522.1 -6.3 4729.4 1.5 2318.6 -9.4 1108.6 -22.1 20091 11340.9 -6.1 4746.5 1.5 2326.2 1.3 1133.9 9.4 20092 11356.7 0.6 4772.0 2.2 2335.1 1.5 1146.7 4.6 20093 11378.3 0.8 4800.7 2.4 2345.9 1.9 1162.7 5.7 20094 11406.7 1.0 4830.1 2.5 2357.8 2.1 1179.1 5.8 20101 11483.5 2.7 4861.2 2.6 2371.3 2.3 1196.6 6.1 20102 11581.7 3.5 4894.2 2.7 2386.2 2.5 1215.3 6.4 20103 11687.5 3.7 4928.1 2.8 2402.1 2.7 1234.7 6.5 20104 11736.4 1.7 4949.0 1.7 2411.6 1.6 1241.4 2.2 20111 11780.2 1.5 4971.8 1.9 2420.4 1.5 1248.9 2.4 20112 11834.2 1.8 4996.0 2.0 2429.6 1.5 1256.8 2.6 20113 11899.5 2.2 5021.5 2.1 2439.4 1.6 1265.3 2.7 20114 11949.6 1.7 5043.5 1.8 2447.5 1.3 1269.8 1.4 20121 12006.4 1.9 5066.9 1.9 2455.7 1.4 1274.8 1.6 20122 12073.7 2.3 5091.5 2.0 2464.5 1.4 1280.5 1.8 20123 12150.0 2.5 5117.1 2.0 2473.8 1.5 1286.8 2.0 20124 12226.2 2.5 5143.6 2.1 2483.6 1.6 1293.6 2.1
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 465.0 3.7 884.7 -1.8 35.0 1650.9 12.3 20042 484.8 18.1 918.4 16.1 64.9 1710.4 15.2 20043 489.5 3.9 921.9 1.5 60.1 1730.7 4.8 20044 491.2 1.4 927.5 2.5 57.2 1787.6 13.8 20051 500.8 8.0 971.1 20.2 74.6 1801.6 3.2 20052 513.1 10.2 994.2 9.9 16.7 1804.4 0.6 20053 518.5 4.3 1017.5 9.7 11.0 1807.9 0.8 20054 517.7 -0.6 1030.2 5.1 53.5 1873.5 15.3 20061 511.0 -5.1 1072.6 17.5 45.9 1920.2 10.3 20062 488.3 -16.6 1092.5 7.7 56.9 1920.9 0.1 20063 459.6 -21.5 1112.3 7.4 53.3 1935.7 3.1 20064 435.2 -19.6 1115.2 1.0 13.1 1945.3 2.0 20071 416.2 -16.3 1127.0 4.3 -15.0 1981.8 7.7 20072 403.5 -11.7 1142.5 5.6 -2.8 1963.4 -3.7 20073 380.8 -20.7 1148.0 1.9 16.0 1978.0 3.0 20074 351.9 -27.1 1168.0 7.1 -8.1 1966.5 -2.3 20081 327.4 -25.0 1200.7 11.7 -10.2 1962.6 -0.8 20082 316.0 -13.3 1216.9 5.5 -50.6 1926.0 -7.3 20083 302.4 -16.1 1206.3 -3.4 -29.6 1909.1 -3.5 20084 282.4 -24.0 1143.7 -19.2 -25.8 1819.3 -17.5 20091 250.5 -38.0 1015.4 -37.9 -103.7 1639.4 -34.1 20092 272.7 40.4 985.2 -11.4 -79.9 1683.6 11.2 20093 297.8 42.2 947.4 -14.5 -52.0 1720.2 9.0 20094 323.2 38.8 913.1 -13.7 -22.0 1751.1 7.4 20101 347.8 34.1 904.2 -3.8 -6.6 1780.6 6.9 20102 371.8 30.5 911.2 3.1 11.4 1810.8 7.0 20103 394.4 26.7 926.4 6.9 29.5 1842.8 7.3 20104 388.4 -5.9 935.5 4.0 50.4 1869.9 6.0 20111 387.5 -0.9 946.1 4.6 43.6 1893.9 5.3 20112 389.6 2.2 960.5 6.2 36.4 1916.7 4.9 20113 393.4 4.0 976.1 6.7 33.9 1938.9 4.7 20114 389.2 -4.2 989.7 5.7 38.4 1958.9 4.2 20121 387.8 -1.4 1006.3 6.9 34.7 1978.0 4.0 20122 388.3 0.5 1027.0 8.5 33.3 1997.3 4.0 20123 390.2 1.9 1050.3 9.4 34.6 2017.3 4.1 20124 392.6 2.5 1075.1 9.8 38.3 2038.4 4.2
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.7 2.8 3.7 0.9 20042 3.8 3.5 7.6 4.0 20043 2.3 2.8 5.1 2.2 20044 3.2 3.1 5.6 2.4 20051 4.0 3.4 -0.5 -3.8 20052 2.1 1.8 2.8 1.0 20053 4.1 4.5 6.5 1.9 20054 3.8 4.2 3.8 -0.4 20061 3.6 2.9 6.0 3.0 20062 2.7 2.8 0.9 -1.9 20063 2.7 2.0 2.2 0.2 20064 2.2 1.4 7.2 5.7 20071 4.2 2.7 7.7 4.9 20072 1.9 1.6 1.0 -0.6 20073 1.6 1.1 6.2 5.0 20074 2.8 2.7 4.3 1.6 20081 2.6 3.0 3.4 0.4 20082 1.0 1.3 2.7 1.4 20083 3.9 5.1 7.2 2.0 20084 0.6 1.4 7.4 5.9 20091 2.8 2.9 4.7 1.7 20092 0.7 0.1 2.5 2.4 20093 0.8 0.2 2.6 2.4 20094 0.9 0.4 2.8 2.4 20101 1.1 0.7 3.1 2.3 20102 1.4 1.1 3.4 2.3 20103 1.8 1.6 3.8 2.2 20104 2.2 1.9 4.1 2.1 20111 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.1 20112 2.5 2.4 4.5 2.1 20113 2.7 2.5 4.6 2.0 20114 2.8 2.7 4.7 2.0 20121 2.9 2.8 4.8 2.0 20122 3.0 2.9 4.9 2.0 20123 3.0 2.9 5.0 2.0 20124 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1487.9 6.1 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1501.9 3.8 78.2 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.7 6.8 73.7 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.5 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1545.8 -2.3 74.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1551.8 1.6 73.4 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1548.4 -0.9 70.2 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 1.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1567.1 3.5 68.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1561.2 -1.5 68.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1542.7 -4.7 65.7 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1556.4 4.5 67.3 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1537.8 -4.7 66.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1521.8 -4.1 73.4 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1548.0 7.0 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1547.4 -0.1 -33.7 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1558.3 2.9 -89.2 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1683.1 36.1 79.8 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1812.9 34.6 371.6 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1774.0 -8.3 361.0 20092 0.0 4.9 4.8 1782.5 1.9 341.4 20093 0.0 4.6 4.5 1790.5 1.8 322.9 20094 0.0 4.4 4.3 1798.2 1.7 305.4 20101 0.0 4.2 4.2 1805.6 1.7 288.8 20102 0.0 4.0 4.0 1813.0 1.6 273.2 20103 0.2 3.9 4.0 1820.0 1.5 258.3 20104 0.3 3.8 3.9 1826.6 1.5 244.3 20111 0.4 3.7 3.9 1833.2 1.5 231.1 20112 0.4 3.6 3.8 1839.9 1.5 218.5 20113 0.4 3.5 3.8 1846.8 1.5 206.7 20114 0.4 3.4 3.7 1853.9 1.5 195.5 20121 0.4 3.3 3.7 1861.3 1.6 184.8 20122 0.4 3.3 3.7 1868.9 1.6 174.8 20123 0.4 3.2 3.7 1876.8 1.7 165.3 20124 0.4 3.2 3.6 1884.8 1.7 156.4
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.0 0.1 5.3 0.9 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 1.2 -0.2 2.6 2.0 1.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 0.0 4.3 1.5 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.1 7.8 20052 5.1 1.1 1.0 5.3 2.0 3.0 7.6 20053 5.0 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 2.1 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.6 0.6 2.6 1.5 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 2.5 7.1 20062 4.7 0.5 0.4 4.2 1.5 1.8 7.1 20063 4.6 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 7.0 20064 4.4 1.8 0.1 4.2 1.6 2.9 6.7 20071 4.5 2.4 -0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 6.9 20073 4.7 -0.3 1.5 1.8 -0.8 0.3 7.2 20074 4.8 0.9 0.3 2.7 1.2 0.8 7.3 20081 4.9 -1.6 -0.1 2.9 -0.9 -0.4 7.6 20082 5.4 -0.4 1.9 3.1 -1.2 -0.4 8.3 20083 6.0 1.7 -0.6 1.6 -2.0 -1.9 9.4 20084 6.9 -1.8 0.5 1.5 -5.3 -3.4 10.6 20091 8.1 -4.4 -1.0 0.8 -6.4 -6.6 12.4 20092 8.9 0.0 1.4 0.8 -3.4 -2.8 13.7 20093 9.3 -0.1 1.4 0.6 -1.6 -1.1 14.3 20094 9.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 14.6 20101 9.3 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 14.5 20102 9.1 -0.1 1.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 14.2 20103 8.8 -0.1 1.3 0.9 2.1 2.0 13.7 20104 8.6 -0.1 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 13.4 20111 8.5 -0.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 13.2 20112 8.4 -0.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 13.1 20113 8.4 -0.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 13.1 20114 8.4 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 13.1 20121 8.4 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 13.2 20122 8.4 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 13.2 20123 8.4 -0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 13.2 20124 8.4 -0.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 13.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2294.3 781.1 85.2 2.1 1.4 539.3 -411.0 -8.0 20042 758.7 849.3 39.8 2.1 4.5 616.2 -374.1 -1.9 20043 -251.5 906.8 30.0 1.8 4.4 619.3 -361.8 -12.2 20044 8305.0 886.0 -8.9 2.6 -3.0 721.7 -335.5 28.0 20051 932.2 1130.8 165.3 0.8 0.2 683.1 -278.7 41.1 20052 2887.6 1175.2 16.7 0.5 2.8 689.1 -269.6 38.1 20053 5424.4 1174.1 -0.4 -0.7 8.3 658.9 -364.8 19.1 20054 3870.6 1302.0 51.2 0.8 -2.0 812.5 -253.7 19.1 20061 6662.1 1343.7 13.4 1.0 -1.9 768.8 -208.0 57.6 20062 -1811.0 1406.9 20.2 0.6 1.6 788.9 -224.7 63.0 20063 3152.3 1456.8 14.9 0.5 0.1 825.6 -218.5 32.1 20064 7160.6 1372.6 -21.2 0.9 -0.7 703.0 -153.2 31.8 20071 3669.7 1384.6 3.6 1.1 1.7 777.7 -225.1 23.2 20072 5629.3 1419.7 10.5 0.3 4.3 763.7 -211.3 35.7 20073 896.0 1437.0 5.0 0.5 8.2 682.0 -244.4 4.8 20074 -3852.4 1511.0 22.2 0.4 1.2 651.0 -236.3 -22.4 20081 -8008.8 1348.6 -36.5 0.2 1.0 693.0 -330.8 -52.5 20082 -3542.7 1366.9 5.5 2.6 5.7 722.6 -649.7 -66.8 20083 -8704.4 1385.4 5.5 1.4 4.6 696.4 -544.1 -103.5 20084 -17216.5 1063.5 -65.3 3.3 1.0 502.6 -561.4 -97.4 20091 -6000.0 1277.9 108.5 4.4 1.0 285.6 -806.0 -69.5 20092 2493.4 1308.8 10.0 6.2 3.6 371.1 -1109.8 -66.1 20093 1809.0 1310.4 0.5 6.5 1.9 448.4 -1206.4 -57.7 20094 1658.0 1304.1 -1.9 6.4 1.1 519.3 -1239.8 -42.6 20101 1960.1 1322.9 5.9 6.4 1.5 561.6 -1258.6 -32.6 20102 2031.9 1351.4 8.9 6.3 1.5 604.1 -1269.3 -18.7 20103 1940.2 1381.4 9.2 6.3 1.3 647.8 -1274.7 -3.3 20104 1334.4 1368.4 -3.7 4.2 -0.1 685.0 -1024.8 5.3 20111 1383.2 1356.8 -3.3 4.2 0.2 703.1 -1041.9 11.8 20112 1607.0 1361.3 1.3 4.2 0.8 718.7 -1055.7 17.4 20113 1783.8 1380.4 5.7 4.2 1.3 733.0 -1066.7 22.7 20114 1678.4 1391.1 3.2 3.5 1.1 743.8 -981.6 25.4 20121 1816.1 1410.8 5.8 3.5 1.4 752.8 -993.3 27.7 20122 1959.1 1440.7 8.8 3.5 1.8 761.5 -1001.5 30.4 20123 2047.1 1478.1 10.8 3.4 2.0 770.4 -1007.3 33.7 20124 2022.7 1514.0 10.1 3.4 1.9 780.1 -1004.4 37.2
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 10.0 -2.3 10.0 992.4 10.8 9.0 20042 5.0 1.1 6.5 994.2 0.7 7.3 20043 10.4 -4.3 3.1 999.2 2.0 5.2 20044 -10.5 -2.7 10.0 1011.5 5.0 6.8 20051 1.6 -4.1 8.1 1042.6 12.9 2.4 20052 3.1 0.9 8.8 1056.6 5.5 9.7 20053 19.0 -1.4 0.4 1072.0 6.0 10.4 20054 -14.1 3.7 10.8 1083.0 4.2 4.6 20061 22.6 0.0 16.7 1137.1 21.5 -1.1 20062 -2.9 7.0 5.4 1157.1 7.2 10.3 20063 0.4 1.4 3.5 1168.6 4.0 5.0 20064 3.2 1.1 15.6 1181.5 4.5 -9.1 20071 -6.1 7.0 0.6 1211.8 10.7 0.9 20072 13.2 4.2 8.8 1229.9 6.1 12.8 20073 10.0 3.0 23.0 1243.3 4.4 7.4 20074 -2.1 1.4 4.4 1249.0 1.8 12.8 20081 7.6 -3.6 5.1 1284.0 11.7 12.8 20082 8.4 4.1 12.3 1620.8 153.9 28.8 20083 19.4 1.4 3.0 1411.6 -42.5 9.2 20084 7.2 -6.1 -23.6 1382.2 -8.1 -37.3 20091 -10.6 -10.8 -30.0 1469.9 27.9 -29.5 20092 17.6 -3.0 -4.0 1811.5 130.7 4.0 20093 7.9 -3.0 -4.0 1883.4 16.8 4.0 20094 1.6 -3.0 -4.0 1905.6 4.8 4.0 20101 1.9 1.0 3.0 1928.1 4.8 4.0 20102 1.9 1.0 3.0 1951.0 4.8 4.0 20103 1.6 1.0 3.0 1974.2 4.8 4.0 20104 3.2 1.0 3.0 1730.5 -41.0 4.0 20111 1.9 1.0 7.0 1754.4 5.6 4.0 20112 1.6 1.0 7.0 1778.6 5.6 4.0 20113 1.9 1.0 7.0 1803.2 5.6 4.0 20114 -2.6 1.0 7.0 1737.0 -13.9 4.0 20121 1.9 1.0 7.0 1762.3 6.0 4.0 20122 1.6 1.0 7.0 1788.0 6.0 4.0 20123 1.9 1.0 7.0 1814.0 6.0 4.0 20124 -2.5 1.0 7.0 1840.1 5.9 4.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2185.9 894.9 335.4 104.0 835.0 20052 2226.0 917.8 339.8 108.9 842.5 20053 2175.4 944.2 318.0 107.0 857.0 20054 2324.7 965.8 370.6 105.2 865.7 20061 2413.8 1018.8 377.3 105.1 893.6 20062 2447.3 1031.6 394.4 106.0 895.7 20063 2489.6 1056.0 404.6 106.5 902.6 20064 2515.6 1093.2 379.5 105.1 917.7 20071 2567.4 1139.5 365.6 104.8 937.1 20072 2599.0 1157.1 381.5 103.7 936.4 20073 2612.4 1178.1 365.1 105.5 943.3 20074 2623.1 1194.7 349.5 105.9 952.3 20081 2618.3 1201.2 322.5 104.0 968.9 20082 2624.1 1199.2 324.4 106.7 971.8 20083 2597.2 1198.7 313.4 104.8 976.0 20084 2487.6 1166.1 204.3 107.6 972.2 20091 2350.0 997.6 240.3 100.1 969.6 20092 2437.7 1079.4 245.5 100.9 969.5 20093 2452.4 1087.8 245.7 101.7 974.7 20094 2472.5 1099.9 244.7 102.7 982.9 20101 2506.7 1117.8 247.8 103.7 994.9 20102 2550.1 1140.1 252.6 104.9 1010.1 20103 2599.4 1165.7 257.7 106.3 1027.4 20104 2637.4 1189.2 255.5 107.4 1043.0 20111 2674.3 1212.0 253.5 108.5 1057.9 20112 2714.5 1235.3 254.3 109.8 1072.8 20113 2758.7 1259.6 257.5 111.1 1088.2 20114 2800.1 1283.1 259.3 112.3 1102.9 20121 2843.5 1307.1 262.6 113.6 1117.8 20122 2890.4 1332.2 267.6 115.0 1133.2 20123 2940.9 1358.8 273.9 116.4 1149.4 20124 2992.8 1386.4 279.9 117.9 1166.2
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2312.4 709.6 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2464.6 758.2 1042.6 31.7 358.5 216.2 57.4 -278.7 20052 2495.6 760.3 1056.6 18.8 361.1 236.2 62.6 -269.6 20053 2540.2 782.1 1072.0 22.6 359.7 237.0 66.8 -364.8 20054 2578.4 764.5 1083.0 32.9 364.3 264.6 69.1 -253.7 20061 2621.8 805.9 1137.1 17.7 354.2 250.0 56.9 -208.0 20062 2672.0 809.2 1157.1 23.8 358.7 270.3 52.9 -224.7 20063 2708.1 816.2 1168.6 25.1 363.0 283.8 51.4 -218.5 20064 2668.8 816.0 1181.5 11.8 356.2 252.8 50.5 -153.2 20071 2792.5 832.5 1211.8 36.4 372.9 288.2 50.7 -225.1 20072 2810.3 851.1 1229.9 16.3 376.8 288.2 48.0 -211.3 20073 2856.8 869.1 1243.3 22.1 375.9 301.4 45.0 -244.4 20074 2859.4 871.6 1249.0 28.5 379.6 284.8 45.9 -236.3 20081 2949.1 898.0 1284.0 32.4 379.9 307.7 47.1 -330.8 20082 3273.8 918.2 1620.8 21.6 384.4 280.4 48.4 -649.7 20083 3141.3 954.2 1411.6 20.4 386.6 320.2 48.3 -544.1 20084 3049.0 957.5 1382.2 22.3 402.3 235.7 49.0 -561.4 20091 3156.0 960.3 1469.9 15.4 436.7 223.4 50.3 -806.0 20092 3547.5 985.9 1811.5 15.4 442.1 242.4 50.3 -1109.8 20093 3658.7 1000.0 1883.4 15.4 447.5 262.2 50.3 -1206.4 20094 3712.2 1005.8 1905.6 15.4 453.0 282.2 50.3 -1239.8 20101 3765.3 1013.0 1928.1 15.4 458.5 299.9 50.3 -1258.6 20102 3819.4 1021.3 1951.0 15.4 464.2 317.3 50.3 -1269.3 20103 3874.1 1030.2 1974.2 15.4 469.9 334.2 50.3 -1274.7 20104 3662.2 1042.5 1730.5 15.4 475.6 347.9 50.3 -1024.8 20111 3716.2 1053.6 1754.4 15.4 481.5 361.1 50.3 -1041.9 20112 3770.2 1064.7 1778.6 15.4 487.4 373.9 50.3 -1055.7 20113 3825.4 1076.9 1803.2 15.4 493.4 386.2 50.3 -1066.7 20114 3781.7 1082.4 1737.0 15.4 499.4 397.2 50.3 -981.6 20121 3836.8 1095.4 1762.3 15.4 505.5 407.9 50.3 -993.3 20122 3891.9 1108.2 1788.0 15.4 511.7 418.3 50.3 -1001.5 20123 3948.2 1122.0 1814.0 15.4 518.0 428.4 50.3 -1007.3 20124 3997.2 1128.8 1840.1 15.4 524.4 438.2 50.3 -1004.4
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1560.2 268.9 55.8 816.8 24.6 358.5 20052 1584.0 274.9 56.2 832.6 24.4 361.1 20053 1601.1 278.0 52.2 847.6 24.1 359.7 20054 1611.3 286.7 60.8 858.8 23.8 364.3 20061 1646.4 297.2 59.2 875.7 23.5 354.2 20062 1677.6 309.5 61.7 886.6 23.2 358.7 20063 1681.1 300.2 63.1 893.0 22.9 363.0 20064 1687.0 306.4 59.0 902.9 22.8 356.2 20071 1734.3 320.0 60.8 917.5 22.7 372.9 20072 1764.5 332.3 63.7 928.2 22.7 376.8 20073 1758.2 323.5 60.9 934.0 22.8 375.9 20074 1770.5 325.8 58.2 942.7 22.9 379.6 20081 1774.3 333.7 53.3 942.7 23.3 379.9 20082 1805.8 346.4 54.5 955.3 23.6 384.4 20083 1796.0 329.0 51.9 962.5 23.9 386.6 20084 1766.6 324.3 30.7 942.3 24.2 402.3 20091 1782.7 299.3 36.1 942.3 24.4 436.7 20092 1802.9 306.0 36.9 949.4 24.6 442.1 20093 1818.9 308.3 36.9 957.5 24.8 447.5 20094 1836.5 311.5 36.8 966.4 24.9 453.0 20101 1857.5 316.2 37.2 976.4 25.1 458.5 20102 1881.4 322.2 38.0 987.9 25.3 464.2 20103 1907.5 328.9 38.7 1000.6 25.5 469.9 20104 1929.4 335.1 38.4 1010.7 25.7 475.6 20111 1952.1 341.2 38.1 1021.6 25.9 481.5 20112 1976.1 347.3 38.2 1033.2 26.1 487.4 20113 2001.5 353.7 38.7 1045.6 26.3 493.4 20114 2026.0 359.9 39.0 1057.3 26.5 499.4 20121 2051.4 366.2 39.5 1069.6 26.7 505.5 20122 2078.1 372.8 40.2 1082.6 26.9 511.7 20123 2106.0 379.8 41.2 1096.1 27.1 518.0 20124 2134.7 387.0 42.1 1110.1 27.3 524.4
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 28.0 20051 1519.1 1159.1 338.7 19.4 2.4 4.3 41.1 20052 1545.9 1174.1 352.0 17.0 2.5 5.3 38.1 20053 1582.0 1203.1 346.1 15.4 2.5 19.9 19.1 20054 1592.2 1228.4 346.5 14.2 2.5 5.6 19.1 20061 1588.8 1240.8 331.5 14.0 2.6 5.1 57.6 20062 1614.6 1260.2 338.1 13.8 2.7 5.2 63.0 20063 1649.0 1281.8 350.0 14.0 2.7 5.9 32.1 20064 1655.2 1295.8 343.6 13.0 2.8 5.6 31.8 20071 1711.1 1318.7 373.8 13.7 2.8 7.7 23.2 20072 1728.8 1344.4 356.8 13.9 2.7 16.4 35.7 20073 1753.4 1365.3 363.0 13.9 2.9 14.1 4.8 20074 1792.9 1395.2 373.3 14.1 2.9 13.2 -22.4 20081 1826.8 1426.3 379.0 13.9 3.0 10.6 -52.5 20082 1872.6 1462.7 388.7 13.9 2.8 10.1 -66.8 20083 1899.5 1485.7 391.6 14.9 2.8 10.1 -103.5 20084 1864.0 1443.0 397.9 14.6 3.2 11.7 -97.4 20091 1852.2 1426.4 402.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 -69.5 20092 1869.0 1424.5 421.5 15.0 3.2 11.2 -66.1 20093 1876.6 1422.8 430.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 -57.7 20094 1879.1 1421.9 434.2 15.0 3.2 11.2 -42.6 20101 1890.0 1434.3 432.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 -32.6 20102 1900.1 1448.3 428.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 -18.7 20103 1910.8 1464.1 423.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 -3.3 20104 1924.1 1481.3 419.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 5.3 20111 1940.3 1499.7 417.6 15.0 3.2 11.2 11.8 20112 1958.7 1518.9 416.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 17.4 20113 1978.8 1539.1 416.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 22.7 20114 2000.6 1559.9 417.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 25.4 20121 2023.7 1581.3 419.4 15.0 3.2 11.2 27.7 20122 2047.6 1603.3 421.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 30.4 20123 2072.3 1626.0 423.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 33.7 20124 2097.5 1649.2 425.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 37.2
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -246.3 141.1 124.3 539.3 -417.6 -140.9 20042 -282.1 84.6 103.0 616.2 -382.7 -139.0 20043 -263.4 132.8 35.2 619.3 -376.5 -147.4 20044 -250.1 -94.4 78.8 721.7 -349.9 -106.1 20051 -414.9 -33.2 146.5 683.1 -288.2 -93.4 20052 -462.5 53.4 102.5 689.1 -281.7 -100.8 20053 -403.0 199.7 26.8 658.9 -376.9 -105.6 20054 -444.5 -3.4 32.0 812.5 -272.2 -124.5 20061 -439.3 -165.5 140.9 768.8 -224.4 -80.6 20062 -451.1 -158.6 146.2 788.9 -242.2 -83.2 20063 -417.5 -183.3 122.3 825.6 -233.5 -113.6 20064 -345.8 -213.9 146.5 703.0 -175.8 -114.0 20071 -302.5 -252.9 146.2 777.7 -235.9 -132.4 20072 -359.9 -203.4 152.5 763.7 -227.7 -125.2 20073 -313.3 -55.2 105.9 682.0 -259.3 -160.1 20074 -270.5 -11.0 74.9 651.0 -255.0 -189.4 20081 -260.9 -8.7 134.4 693.0 -345.6 -212.3 20082 6.9 63.2 115.4 722.6 -675.2 -232.9 20083 -74.8 145.9 76.6 696.4 -571.0 -273.0 20084 136.1 159.5 58.4 502.6 -595.5 -261.0 20091 315.9 377.4 69.4 285.6 -830.6 -217.6 20092 504.9 400.3 69.3 371.1 -1134.4 -211.2 20093 514.9 398.3 69.2 448.4 -1230.9 -199.9 20094 477.0 380.4 69.3 519.3 -1264.2 -181.7 20101 448.5 371.9 69.6 561.6 -1283.0 -168.6 20102 421.9 349.1 70.2 604.1 -1293.6 -151.7 20103 395.5 317.8 71.0 647.8 -1299.0 -133.1 20104 158.4 254.8 72.1 685.0 -1049.0 -121.3 20111 171.9 229.3 73.3 703.1 -1066.0 -111.5 20112 175.5 213.5 74.7 718.7 -1079.8 -102.6 20113 173.5 202.0 76.1 733.0 -1090.7 -94.0 20114 94.9 176.9 77.7 743.8 -1005.5 -87.8 20121 99.8 167.2 79.4 752.8 -1017.2 -82.0 20122 100.1 158.5 81.1 761.5 -1025.3 -75.8 20123 97.6 149.0 82.9 770.4 -1030.9 -69.0 20124 91.5 133.4 84.7 780.1 -1027.9 -61.9 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11405.6 8010.1 969.6 2284.2 4756.3 20042 11610.4 8134.9 974.8 2327.7 4832.4 20043 11779.3 8245.0 986.9 2353.5 4904.6 20044 11948.4 8393.3 1004.1 2409.3 4979.9 20051 12155.3 8480.9 1006.6 2432.4 5041.9 20052 12297.6 8610.8 1033.3 2469.9 5107.6 20053 12538.2 8791.1 1038.7 2554.8 5197.6 20054 12696.4 8893.7 1004.4 2599.4 5289.9 20061 12959.6 9026.3 1046.5 2629.3 5350.5 20062 13134.2 9161.9 1049.1 2681.5 5431.3 20063 13249.5 9283.6 1054.4 2726.3 5502.9 20064 13370.1 9357.0 1058.2 2703.8 5595.0 20071 13510.9 9524.9 1076.6 2761.5 5686.8 20072 13735.4 9657.4 1085.3 2817.7 5754.4 20073 13950.5 9765.6 1086.2 2846.6 5832.8 20074 14040.3 9892.7 1083.0 2906.2 5903.5 20081 14161.4 10002.3 1071.0 2950.7 5980.6 20082 14294.4 10138.0 1059.3 3026.2 6052.5 20083 14412.8 10163.5 1016.2 3044.6 6102.7 20084 14200.3 9927.8 946.3 2839.0 6142.5 20091 14075.5 9955.7 963.8 2810.8 6181.1 20092 14121.0 10030.8 976.7 2827.3 6226.8 20093 14175.4 10116.7 992.4 2846.4 6277.8 20094 14244.3 10210.3 1009.0 2868.4 6332.8 20101 14378.8 10316.4 1027.4 2894.3 6394.7 20102 14552.9 10437.2 1047.8 2924.7 6464.8 20103 14751.5 10571.4 1069.9 2959.0 6542.5 20104 14895.0 10678.2 1081.9 2988.0 6608.3 20111 15037.4 10793.0 1095.2 3017.6 6680.2 20112 15200.5 10916.1 1109.6 3049.2 6757.3 20113 15385.7 11046.8 1124.8 3082.8 6839.2 20114 15559.1 11171.1 1136.9 3115.3 6918.8 20121 15745.1 11301.2 1149.9 3148.9 7002.3 20122 15949.4 11437.5 1163.8 3184.1 7089.6 20123 16171.0 11580.2 1178.6 3221.0 7180.6 20124 16398.8 11728.6 1194.2 3259.4 7275.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1769.6 1732.6 1100.4 632.2 37.0 20042 1875.6 1806.6 1135.5 671.1 69.0 20043 1929.7 1864.7 1172.7 692.0 65.0 20044 1979.5 1916.1 1209.5 706.6 63.4 20051 2045.9 1963.3 1233.6 729.7 82.6 20052 2039.7 2020.3 1261.0 759.3 19.4 20053 2084.2 2073.2 1286.1 787.1 11.0 20054 2174.6 2114.3 1311.8 802.5 60.3 20061 2236.7 2183.6 1375.5 808.1 53.1 20062 2253.8 2187.9 1408.3 779.6 65.9 20063 2231.7 2169.2 1433.0 736.2 62.5 20064 2159.4 2143.6 1439.6 704.0 15.8 20071 2117.8 2133.4 1456.4 677.0 -15.6 20072 2145.2 2148.1 1493.7 654.4 -2.9 20073 2164.0 2141.0 1522.9 618.1 23.0 20074 2101.5 2113.4 1542.1 571.3 -11.9 20081 2066.7 2081.7 1553.6 528.1 -15.0 20082 2000.9 2076.9 1571.9 505.0 -76.0 20083 2010.9 2060.6 1581.2 479.4 -49.7 20084 1906.1 1942.7 1504.3 438.4 -36.6 20091 1579.8 1716.6 1332.4 384.2 -136.8 20092 1609.6 1715.2 1301.2 414.0 -105.6 20093 1640.6 1709.4 1261.6 447.8 -68.8 20094 1679.3 1708.6 1226.2 482.4 -29.2 20101 1727.8 1736.6 1220.2 516.4 -8.7 20102 1798.8 1783.5 1233.2 550.3 15.3 20103 1879.7 1840.0 1256.8 583.2 39.6 20104 1921.3 1853.1 1274.5 578.6 68.2 20111 1935.0 1875.7 1294.7 581.0 59.3 20112 1957.5 1907.7 1320.0 587.7 49.8 20113 1991.2 1944.5 1347.5 597.0 46.7 20114 2022.1 1968.8 1373.3 595.5 53.4 20121 2049.8 2001.2 1403.2 598.0 48.6 20122 2088.8 2041.8 1438.6 603.2 46.9 20123 2137.5 2088.3 1477.8 610.5 49.2 20124 2193.4 2138.5 1519.7 618.8 54.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -543.2 1140.9 1684.1 2169.1 806.2 1362.9 20042 -603.0 1172.8 1775.8 2202.9 821.9 1381.0 20043 -632.7 1187.3 1820.0 2237.3 839.4 1397.9 20044 -682.6 1228.6 1911.2 2258.2 835.0 1423.2 20051 -670.7 1266.8 1937.5 2299.2 861.0 1438.2 20052 -680.9 1305.1 1986.0 2328.0 867.1 1460.9 20053 -725.1 1314.5 2039.6 2388.0 894.2 1493.8 20054 -777.8 1359.6 2137.4 2405.9 879.5 1526.4 20061 -761.7 1423.2 2184.9 2458.3 922.8 1535.5 20062 -777.2 1462.8 2240.0 2495.7 928.5 1567.2 20063 -792.7 1492.5 2285.2 2526.9 935.5 1591.4 20064 -697.7 1544.5 2242.2 2551.4 941.7 1609.7 20071 -728.9 1560.5 2289.4 2597.1 950.3 1646.8 20072 -723.1 1614.4 2337.5 2655.9 974.6 1681.3 20073 -682.6 1714.9 2397.5 2703.5 994.0 1709.5 20074 -696.8 1759.7 2456.5 2742.9 998.3 1744.6 20081 -705.7 1820.8 2526.5 2798.1 1026.5 1771.6 20082 -718.2 1923.2 2641.4 2873.7 1056.1 1817.6 20083 -707.7 1968.9 2676.6 2946.1 1098.0 1848.1 20084 -545.0 1724.7 2269.7 2911.4 1107.0 1804.4 20091 -337.7 1536.7 1874.4 2877.7 1102.5 1775.2 20092 -422.5 1521.5 1944.0 2903.1 1129.8 1773.3 20093 -499.1 1506.6 2005.7 2917.3 1145.7 1771.6 20094 -569.3 1492.6 2061.9 2924.0 1153.3 1770.7 20101 -610.9 1506.3 2117.2 2945.4 1162.3 1783.1 20102 -652.7 1521.8 2174.4 2969.5 1172.4 1797.1 20103 -695.6 1539.0 2234.6 2996.1 1183.2 1812.9 20104 -732.1 1557.7 2289.8 3027.5 1197.4 1830.1 20111 -749.4 1592.7 2342.1 3058.8 1210.3 1848.5 20112 -764.2 1629.3 2393.6 3091.1 1223.4 1867.7 20113 -777.7 1667.5 2445.2 3125.4 1237.6 1887.9 20114 -787.8 1707.0 2494.8 3153.7 1245.0 1908.7 20121 -796.0 1747.9 2543.9 3190.1 1260.0 1930.1 20122 -803.9 1790.1 2594.0 3227.0 1274.9 1952.1 20123 -812.0 1833.8 2645.8 3265.4 1290.7 1974.8 20124 -820.9 1879.0 2699.8 3297.6 1299.5 1998.0
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2000 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 10543.6 7485.8 1066.2 2156.7 4262.9 20042 10634.2 7530.8 1071.3 2164.9 4294.6 20043 10728.7 7598.1 1091.5 2181.4 4325.2 20044 10796.4 7678.7 1110.1 2207.5 4361.1 20051 10875.8 7711.5 1111.6 2220.6 4379.3 20052 10946.1 7785.6 1143.7 2243.7 4398.2 20053 11050.0 7858.4 1158.9 2260.1 4439.4 20054 11086.1 7876.4 1123.3 2286.2 4466.9 20061 11217.3 7968.5 1173.1 2310.7 4484.7 20062 11291.7 8022.7 1178.3 2328.7 4515.7 20063 11314.1 8068.0 1188.4 2342.0 4537.6 20064 11356.4 8142.0 1200.7 2359.8 4581.5 20071 11357.8 8223.6 1227.3 2380.1 4616.2 20072 11491.4 8266.5 1242.3 2391.5 4632.7 20073 11625.8 8307.8 1249.4 2398.6 4659.8 20074 11620.7 8326.8 1250.6 2400.1 4676.1 20081 11646.0 8339.3 1237.0 2397.9 4704.4 20082 11727.4 8361.1 1228.3 2420.7 4712.1 20083 11712.4 8267.7 1180.1 2376.3 4711.3 20084 11522.1 8156.6 1108.6 2318.6 4729.4 20091 11340.9 8206.6 1133.9 2326.2 4746.5 20092 11356.7 8253.8 1146.7 2335.1 4772.0 20093 11378.3 8309.2 1162.7 2345.9 4800.7 20094 11406.7 8366.9 1179.1 2357.8 4830.1 20101 11483.5 8429.1 1196.6 2371.3 4861.2 20102 11581.7 8495.7 1215.3 2386.2 4894.2 20103 11687.5 8564.9 1234.7 2402.1 4928.1 20104 11736.4 8602.0 1241.4 2411.6 4949.0 20111 11780.2 8641.0 1248.9 2420.4 4971.8 20112 11834.2 8682.5 1256.8 2429.6 4996.0 20113 11899.5 8726.2 1265.3 2439.4 5021.5 20114 11949.6 8760.7 1269.8 2447.5 5043.5 20121 12006.4 8797.4 1274.8 2455.7 5066.9 20122 12073.7 8836.5 1280.5 2464.5 5091.5 20123 12150.0 8877.8 1286.8 2473.8 5117.1 20124 12226.2 8920.7 1293.6 2483.6 5143.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1674.6 1639.6 1099.1 540.5 35.0 20042 1754.1 1689.2 1127.5 561.7 64.9 20043 1788.3 1728.2 1160.7 567.5 60.1 20044 1817.7 1760.5 1189.6 570.9 57.2 20051 1857.1 1782.5 1200.4 582.1 74.6 20052 1831.4 1814.7 1218.9 595.8 16.7 20053 1849.8 1838.8 1237.1 601.7 11.0 20054 1903.7 1850.2 1248.2 602.0 53.5 20061 1937.6 1891.7 1295.2 596.5 45.9 20062 1942.4 1885.5 1315.4 570.1 56.9 20063 1922.6 1869.3 1332.6 536.7 53.3 20064 1850.8 1837.7 1329.3 508.4 13.1 20071 1811.8 1826.8 1340.4 486.4 -15.0 20072 1842.7 1845.5 1373.8 471.7 -2.8 20073 1864.1 1848.1 1402.8 445.3 16.0 20074 1818.1 1826.2 1414.6 411.6 -8.1 20081 1795.9 1806.1 1423.1 383.0 -10.2 20082 1750.8 1801.4 1431.8 369.6 -50.6 20083 1749.8 1779.4 1425.7 353.7 -29.6 20084 1646.8 1672.6 1341.0 331.6 -25.8 20091 1381.1 1484.8 1190.6 294.2 -103.7 20092 1396.9 1476.7 1160.4 316.4 -79.9 20093 1412.1 1464.1 1122.6 341.5 -52.0 20094 1433.1 1455.1 1088.3 366.9 -22.0 20101 1464.3 1470.9 1079.4 391.5 -6.6 20102 1513.2 1501.8 1086.4 415.4 11.4 20103 1569.1 1539.7 1101.6 438.1 29.5 20104 1593.2 1542.8 1110.7 432.1 50.4 20111 1596.1 1552.5 1121.3 431.2 43.6 20112 1605.3 1568.9 1135.7 433.3 36.4 20113 1622.3 1588.4 1151.3 437.1 33.9 20114 1636.2 1597.8 1164.9 432.9 38.4 20121 1647.7 1613.0 1181.5 431.5 34.7 20122 1667.5 1634.2 1202.2 432.0 33.3 20123 1693.9 1659.3 1225.5 433.8 34.6 20124 1724.9 1686.6 1250.3 436.3 38.3
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -549.1 1101.8 1650.9 1925.4 20042 -591.0 1119.4 1710.4 1931.8 20043 -602.7 1128.0 1730.7 1939.2 20044 -632.3 1155.3 1787.6 1930.4 20051 -623.7 1177.9 1801.6 1929.4 20052 -601.3 1203.1 1804.4 1933.8 20053 -603.6 1204.3 1807.9 1950.3 20054 -637.8 1235.7 1873.5 1941.7 20061 -635.9 1284.3 1920.2 1960.5 20062 -619.5 1301.4 1920.9 1966.4 20063 -623.1 1312.6 1935.7 1974.8 20064 -584.2 1361.1 1945.3 1982.6 20071 -618.7 1363.1 1981.8 1986.7 20072 -571.2 1392.2 1963.4 2006.2 20073 -511.8 1466.2 1978.0 2025.3 20074 -484.5 1482.0 1966.5 2029.2 20081 -462.0 1500.6 1962.6 2039.3 20082 -381.3 1544.7 1926.0 2059.4 20083 -353.0 1556.1 1909.1 2089.4 20084 -364.4 1454.9 1819.3 2096.7 20091 -308.4 1331.0 1639.4 2075.8 20092 -366.2 1317.5 1683.6 2086.3 20093 -416.1 1304.1 1720.2 2087.3 20094 -460.3 1290.9 1751.1 2081.1 20101 -480.1 1300.4 1780.6 2084.4 20102 -500.7 1310.1 1810.8 2087.7 20103 -523.0 1319.8 1842.8 2090.7 20104 -540.3 1329.6 1869.9 2095.6 20111 -541.7 1352.3 1893.9 2099.0 20112 -541.3 1375.3 1916.7 2102.0 20113 -540.1 1398.8 1938.9 2105.4 20114 -536.2 1422.7 1958.9 2103.2 20121 -531.1 1446.9 1978.0 2106.6 20122 -525.6 1471.6 1997.3 2109.6 20123 -520.6 1496.7 2017.3 2113.1 20124 -516.1 1522.3 2038.4 2110.9
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1901.4 767.5 229.7 100.7 788.3 20042 1951.7 785.8 249.8 100.8 799.6 20043 1985.9 809.6 246.4 101.5 812.1 20044 2041.1 826.6 275.3 101.9 820.9 20051 2185.9 894.9 335.4 104.0 835.0 20052 2226.0 917.8 339.8 108.9 842.5 20053 2175.4 944.2 318.0 107.0 857.0 20054 2324.7 965.8 370.6 105.2 865.7 20061 2413.8 1018.8 377.3 105.1 893.6 20062 2447.3 1031.6 394.4 106.0 895.7 20063 2489.6 1056.0 404.6 106.5 902.6 20064 2515.6 1093.2 379.5 105.1 917.7 20071 2567.4 1139.5 365.6 104.8 937.1 20072 2599.0 1157.1 381.5 103.7 936.4 20073 2612.4 1178.1 365.1 105.5 943.3 20074 2623.1 1194.7 349.5 105.9 952.3 20081 2618.3 1201.2 322.5 104.0 968.9 20082 2624.1 1199.2 324.4 106.7 971.8 20083 2597.2 1198.7 313.4 104.8 976.0 20084 2487.6 1166.1 204.3 107.6 972.2 20091 2350.0 997.6 240.3 100.1 969.6 20092 2437.7 1079.4 245.5 100.9 969.5 20093 2452.4 1087.8 245.7 101.7 974.7 20094 2472.5 1099.9 244.7 102.7 982.9 20101 2506.7 1117.8 247.8 103.7 994.9 20102 2550.1 1140.1 252.6 104.9 1010.1 20103 2599.4 1165.7 257.7 106.3 1027.4 20104 2637.4 1189.2 255.5 107.4 1043.0 20111 2674.3 1212.0 253.5 108.5 1057.9 20112 2714.5 1235.3 254.3 109.8 1072.8 20113 2758.7 1259.6 257.5 111.1 1088.2 20114 2800.1 1283.1 259.3 112.3 1102.9 20121 2843.5 1307.1 262.6 113.6 1117.8 20122 2890.4 1332.2 267.6 115.0 1133.2 20123 2940.9 1358.8 273.9 116.4 1149.4 20124 2992.8 1386.4 279.9 117.9 1166.2
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2312.4 709.6 1019.5 992.4 27.1 341.3 199.6 43.9 -411.0 20042 2325.8 721.2 1010.7 994.2 16.5 350.6 198.4 43.4 -374.1 20043 2347.7 734.6 1016.3 999.2 17.1 344.6 206.9 45.3 -361.8 20044 2376.6 729.6 1027.7 1011.5 16.2 359.8 210.2 49.3 -335.5 20051 2464.6 758.2 1074.3 1042.6 31.7 358.5 216.2 57.4 -278.7 20052 2495.6 760.3 1075.4 1056.6 18.8 361.1 236.2 62.6 -269.6 20053 2540.2 782.1 1094.6 1072.0 22.6 359.7 237.0 66.8 -364.8 20054 2578.4 764.5 1115.9 1083.0 32.9 364.3 264.6 69.1 -253.7 20061 2621.8 805.9 1154.8 1137.1 17.7 354.2 250.0 56.9 -208.0 20062 2672.0 809.2 1180.9 1157.1 23.8 358.7 270.3 52.9 -224.7 20063 2708.1 816.2 1193.7 1168.6 25.1 363.0 283.8 51.4 -218.5 20064 2668.8 816.0 1193.3 1181.5 11.8 356.2 252.8 50.5 -153.2 20071 2792.5 832.5 1248.2 1211.8 36.4 372.9 288.2 50.7 -225.1 20072 2810.3 851.1 1246.2 1229.9 16.3 376.8 288.2 48.0 -211.3 20073 2856.8 869.1 1265.4 1243.3 22.1 375.9 301.4 45.0 -244.4 20074 2859.4 871.6 1277.5 1249.0 28.5 379.6 284.8 45.9 -236.3 20081 2949.1 898.0 1316.4 1284.0 32.4 379.9 307.7 47.1 -330.8 20082 3273.8 918.2 1642.4 1620.8 21.6 384.4 280.4 48.4 -649.7 20083 3141.3 954.2 1432.0 1411.6 20.4 386.6 320.2 48.3 -544.1 20084 3049.0 957.5 1404.5 1382.2 22.3 402.3 235.7 49.0 -561.4 20091 3156.0 960.3 1485.3 1469.9 15.4 436.7 223.4 50.3 -806.0 20092 3547.5 985.9 1826.9 1811.5 15.4 442.1 242.4 50.3 -1109.8 20093 3658.7 1000.0 1898.8 1883.4 15.4 447.5 262.2 50.3 -1206.4 20094 3712.2 1005.8 1921.0 1905.6 15.4 453.0 282.2 50.3 -1239.8 20101 3765.3 1013.0 1943.5 1928.1 15.4 458.5 299.9 50.3 -1258.6 20102 3819.4 1021.3 1966.4 1951.0 15.4 464.2 317.3 50.3 -1269.3 20103 3874.1 1030.2 1989.6 1974.2 15.4 469.9 334.2 50.3 -1274.7 20104 3662.2 1042.5 1745.9 1730.5 15.4 475.6 347.9 50.3 -1024.8 20111 3716.2 1053.6 1769.8 1754.4 15.4 481.5 361.1 50.3 -1041.9 20112 3770.2 1064.7 1794.0 1778.6 15.4 487.4 373.9 50.3 -1055.7 20113 3825.4 1076.9 1818.6 1803.2 15.4 493.4 386.2 50.3 -1066.7 20114 3781.7 1082.4 1752.4 1737.0 15.4 499.4 397.2 50.3 -981.6 20121 3836.8 1095.4 1777.7 1762.3 15.4 505.5 407.9 50.3 -993.3 20122 3891.9 1108.2 1803.4 1788.0 15.4 511.7 418.3 50.3 -1001.5 20123 3948.2 1122.0 1829.4 1814.0 15.4 518.0 428.4 50.3 -1007.3 20124 3997.2 1128.8 1855.5 1840.1 15.4 524.4 438.2 50.3 -1004.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1438.8 240.6 39.4 759.4 22.5 341.3 20042 1463.7 238.6 43.1 771.5 23.3 350.6 20043 1464.1 252.5 42.3 781.4 24.0 344.6 20044 1532.0 264.1 47.3 799.0 24.6 359.8 20051 1560.2 268.9 55.8 816.8 24.6 358.5 20052 1584.0 274.9 56.2 832.6 24.4 361.1 20053 1601.1 278.0 52.2 847.6 24.1 359.7 20054 1611.3 286.7 60.8 858.8 23.8 364.3 20061 1646.4 297.2 59.2 875.7 23.5 354.2 20062 1677.6 309.5 61.7 886.6 23.2 358.7 20063 1681.1 300.2 63.1 893.0 22.9 363.0 20064 1687.0 306.4 59.0 902.9 22.8 356.2 20071 1734.3 320.0 60.8 917.5 22.7 372.9 20072 1764.5 332.3 63.7 928.2 22.7 376.8 20073 1758.2 323.5 60.9 934.0 22.8 375.9 20074 1770.5 325.8 58.2 942.7 22.9 379.6 20081 1774.3 333.7 53.3 942.7 23.3 379.9 20082 1805.8 346.4 54.5 955.3 23.6 384.4 20083 1796.0 329.0 51.9 962.5 23.9 386.6 20084 1766.6 324.3 30.7 942.3 24.2 402.3 20091 1782.7 299.3 36.1 942.3 24.4 436.7 20092 1802.9 306.0 36.9 949.4 24.6 442.1 20093 1818.9 308.3 36.9 957.5 24.8 447.5 20094 1836.5 311.5 36.8 966.4 24.9 453.0 20101 1857.5 316.2 37.2 976.4 25.1 458.5 20102 1881.4 322.2 38.0 987.9 25.3 464.2 20103 1907.5 328.9 38.7 1000.6 25.5 469.9 20104 1929.4 335.1 38.4 1010.7 25.7 475.6 20111 1952.1 341.2 38.1 1021.6 25.9 481.5 20112 1976.1 347.3 38.2 1033.2 26.1 487.4 20113 2001.5 353.7 38.7 1045.6 26.3 493.4 20114 2026.0 359.9 39.0 1057.3 26.5 499.4 20121 2051.4 366.2 39.5 1069.6 26.7 505.5 20122 2078.1 372.8 40.2 1082.6 26.9 511.7 20123 2106.0 379.8 41.2 1096.1 27.1 518.0 20124 2134.7 387.0 42.1 1110.1 27.3 524.4
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1446.8 1099.2 321.3 26.1 2.1 2.3 0.0 -8.0 20042 1465.6 1110.2 330.2 24.5 2.2 2.9 0.0 -1.9 20043 1476.3 1124.8 326.9 23.3 2.4 3.7 0.0 -12.2 20044 1504.0 1147.0 332.8 22.4 3.0 4.8 0.0 28.0 20051 1519.1 1159.1 338.7 19.4 2.4 4.3 0.0 41.1 20052 1545.9 1174.1 352.0 17.0 2.5 5.3 0.0 38.1 20053 1582.0 1203.1 346.1 15.4 2.5 19.9 0.0 19.1 20054 1592.2 1228.4 346.5 14.2 2.5 5.6 0.0 19.1 20061 1588.8 1240.8 331.5 14.0 2.6 5.1 0.0 57.6 20062 1614.6 1260.2 338.1 13.8 2.7 5.2 0.0 63.0 20063 1649.0 1281.8 350.0 14.0 2.7 5.9 0.0 32.1 20064 1655.2 1295.8 343.6 13.0 2.8 5.6 0.0 31.8 20071 1711.1 1318.7 373.8 13.7 2.8 7.7 0.0 23.2 20072 1728.8 1344.4 356.8 13.9 2.7 16.4 0.0 35.7 20073 1753.4 1365.3 363.0 13.9 2.9 14.1 0.0 4.8 20074 1792.9 1395.2 373.3 14.1 2.9 13.2 0.0 -22.4 20081 1826.8 1426.3 379.0 13.9 3.0 10.6 0.0 -52.5 20082 1872.6 1462.7 388.7 13.9 2.8 10.1 0.0 -66.8 20083 1899.5 1485.7 391.6 14.9 2.8 10.1 0.0 -103.5 20084 1864.0 1443.0 397.9 14.6 3.2 11.7 0.0 -97.4 20091 1852.2 1426.4 402.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -69.5 20092 1869.0 1424.5 421.5 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -66.1 20093 1876.6 1422.8 430.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -57.7 20094 1879.1 1421.9 434.2 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -42.6 20101 1890.0 1434.3 432.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -32.6 20102 1900.1 1448.3 428.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -18.7 20103 1910.8 1464.1 423.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 -3.3 20104 1924.1 1481.3 419.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 5.3 20111 1940.3 1499.7 417.6 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 11.8 20112 1958.7 1518.9 416.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 17.4 20113 1978.8 1539.1 416.8 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 22.7 20114 2000.6 1559.9 417.7 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 25.4 20121 2023.7 1581.3 419.4 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 27.7 20122 2047.6 1603.3 421.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 30.4 20123 2072.3 1626.0 423.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 33.7 20124 2097.5 1649.2 425.3 15.0 3.2 11.2 0.0 37.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2000=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 108.2 107.0 90.9 105.9 111.6 20042 109.2 108.0 91.0 107.5 112.5 20043 109.8 108.5 90.4 107.9 113.4 20044 110.7 109.3 90.5 109.1 114.2 20051 111.8 110.0 90.6 109.5 115.1 20052 112.3 110.6 90.3 110.1 116.1 20053 113.5 111.9 89.6 113.0 117.1 20054 114.5 112.9 89.4 113.7 118.4 20061 115.5 113.3 89.2 113.8 119.3 20062 116.3 114.2 89.0 115.2 120.3 20063 117.1 115.1 88.7 116.4 121.3 20064 117.7 114.9 88.1 114.6 122.1 20071 119.0 115.8 87.7 116.0 123.2 20072 119.5 116.8 87.4 117.8 124.2 20073 120.0 117.5 86.9 118.7 125.2 20074 120.8 118.8 86.6 121.1 126.2 20081 121.6 119.9 86.6 123.1 127.1 20082 121.9 121.3 86.2 125.0 128.4 20083 123.1 122.9 86.1 128.1 129.5 20084 123.2 121.7 85.4 122.4 129.9 20091 124.1 121.3 85.0 120.8 130.2 20092 124.3 121.5 85.2 121.1 130.5 20093 124.6 121.8 85.4 121.3 130.8 20094 124.9 122.0 85.6 121.7 131.1 20101 125.2 122.4 85.9 122.1 131.5 20102 125.7 122.9 86.2 122.6 132.1 20103 126.2 123.4 86.7 123.2 132.8 20104 126.9 124.1 87.2 123.9 133.5 20111 127.6 124.9 87.7 124.7 134.4 20112 128.4 125.7 88.3 125.5 135.3 20113 129.3 126.6 88.9 126.4 136.2 20114 130.2 127.5 89.5 127.3 137.2 20121 131.1 128.5 90.2 128.2 138.2 20122 132.1 129.4 90.9 129.2 139.2 20123 133.1 130.4 91.6 130.2 140.3 20124 134.1 131.5 92.3 131.2 141.4
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 105.7 100.1 117.0 103.5 102.0 112.7 20042 107.0 100.7 119.5 104.8 103.8 114.0 20043 107.9 101.0 121.9 105.3 105.2 115.4 20044 108.9 101.7 123.8 106.3 106.9 117.0 20051 110.2 102.8 125.4 107.5 107.5 119.2 20052 111.3 103.5 127.4 108.5 110.1 120.4 20053 112.8 104.0 130.8 109.2 112.8 122.4 20054 114.3 105.1 133.3 110.0 114.1 123.9 20061 115.4 106.2 135.5 110.8 113.8 125.4 20062 116.1 107.1 136.7 112.4 116.6 126.9 20063 116.1 107.5 137.2 113.7 118.1 128.0 20064 116.7 108.3 138.5 113.5 115.3 128.7 20071 116.8 108.7 139.2 114.5 115.5 130.7 20072 116.4 108.7 138.7 116.0 119.1 132.4 20073 115.9 108.6 138.8 117.0 121.2 133.5 20074 115.7 109.0 138.8 118.7 124.9 135.2 20081 115.3 109.2 137.9 121.3 128.7 137.2 20082 115.3 109.8 136.6 124.5 137.1 139.5 20083 115.8 110.9 135.5 126.5 140.2 141.0 20084 116.2 112.2 132.2 118.5 124.8 138.9 20091 115.6 111.9 130.6 115.5 114.3 138.6 20092 116.2 112.1 130.9 115.5 115.5 139.1 20093 116.8 112.4 131.1 115.5 116.6 139.8 20094 117.4 112.7 131.5 115.6 117.7 140.5 20101 118.1 113.0 131.9 115.8 118.9 141.3 20102 118.8 113.5 132.5 116.2 120.1 142.2 20103 119.5 114.1 133.1 116.6 121.3 143.3 20104 120.1 114.7 133.9 117.2 122.5 144.5 20111 120.8 115.5 134.7 117.8 123.7 145.7 20112 121.6 116.2 135.6 118.5 124.9 147.1 20113 122.4 117.0 136.6 119.2 126.1 148.5 20114 123.2 117.9 137.6 120.0 127.4 149.9 20121 124.1 118.8 138.6 120.8 128.6 151.4 20122 125.0 119.7 139.6 121.6 129.9 153.0 20123 125.9 120.6 140.7 122.5 131.2 154.5 20124 126.8 121.5 141.8 123.4 132.5 156.2
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment