US Forecast: August 24, 2009
Forecast Period

2009:3--2012:4 (14 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on August 17, 2009.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2009:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: August 24, 2009, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 2009:1 (before the stimulus measures had much effect).

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2009:1-1993.3  

TRGH          6.0                  6.2       
COG           2.0                  4.1       
JG            1.0                 -0.6       
TRGS          5.0                  6.5       
TRSH          3.0                  4.9       
COS          -3.0/1.0              3.2       
JS           -2.0/1.0              1.4       
EX           -4.0/3.0/10.0         4.7
PIM           4.0                  0.8

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGH is nominal federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGS is nominal federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSH is nominal state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator.

-3.0/1.0 for COS means that COS was assumed to fall at a 3 percent annual rate for the first two quarters, 2009:3--2009:4, and then to grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent after that. -2.0/1.0 for JS means that JS was assumed to fall at an annual rate of 2.0 percent for the first two quarters and then to grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent after that. -4.0/3.0/10.0 for EX means that EX was assumed to fall at an annual rate of 4.0 percent for the first two quarters, then to grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent for the next four, 2010:1--2010:4, and then to grow at an annual rate of 10.0 percent after that. All tax rates for the baseline forecast were taken to remain unchanged from their 2009:2 values except for D1G. The 2009:2 value for D1G seemed unusually low, having fallen from .0416 in 2008:4 to .0243 in 2009:2, and the value used for the forecast was increased to .0300.

The values for COG were generated using a base value of $524.0 billion in 2009:2. This is $15 billion lower that the actual value in 2009:2. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on COG in 2009:2. The values for TRGH were generated using a base value of $1507.2 in 2009:2. This is $98.4 billion lower than the actual value in 2009:2. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on TRGH in 2009:2.

The above assumptions have state and local governments contracting some for 2009 and then returning to normal. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions. Exports are assumed to fall in 2009 and then begin growing again in 2010.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGH) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGS) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSH). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGH. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGS was increased and then TRSH increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGH rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGH. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGH and COG. Consistent with this treatment, in the actual data for 2009:1, $3.4 billion was moved from THG (personal taxes) to TRGH (transfer payments). In the actual data for 2009:2, $46.1 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. These two values are BEA's estimate of how much the stimulus bill affected THG in the two quarters.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGH is $92.5 billion larger in 2009:3, $370 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $103 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $12 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $11 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. For nominal government spending on goods (PG*COG) I have assumed it to be $29 billion larger at an annual rate in 2009:3, $29 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $31 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $24 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $17 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. To get the increases for COG, which is in real terms (2005 dollars), I have divided the above increases by values of PG that are close to the predicted values in the forecast. The total nominal increase over the forecast period (beginning in 2009:3) is $677 billion, of which $580 billion is in transfer payments and $97 billion is in purchases of goods.

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGH and COG from their above baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGH     COG

2009:3  370.0    28.0 
2009:4  370.0    27.6
2010:1  370.0    27.6
2010:2  370.0    27.6
2010:3  370.0    27.2
2010:4  102.8    29.2
2011:1  102.8    28.8
2011:2  102.8    28.8
2011:3  102.8    28.4
2011:4   11.6    22.0
2012:1   11.6    21.6
2012:2   11.6    21.6
2012:3   11.6    21.2
2012:4   11.2    14.4

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $268.1 billion, the value for 2009:1 is $223.3 billion, and the value for 2009:2 is $144.4 billion (all at annual rates). For the forecast the value of CTGB was taken to be (at an annual rate) $120 billion in 2009:3, $80 billion in 2009:4, and zero after that.

The Forecast

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing modestly in the rest of 2009 (0.2 and 0.8 percent, respectively, for the two quarters) and then picking up in 2010. (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) It falls back down in 2011 as the stimulus measures subside. The unemployment rate rises to 10.2 percent in 2009:4 and then begins falling. It is 6.8 percent in 2012:4. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs falling by 1.4 million in the last half of 2009.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is essentially zero for the next year and then begins rising. It is 3.8 percent in 2012:4.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be essentially zero for the next year and then begin rising. It is 2.4 percent in 2009:4.

Federal Government Budget: The federal government budget deficit, variable SGP, is predicted to be about $1.5 trillion in 2009:3, about $1.6 trillion in 2010, about $1.4 trillion in 2011, and about $1.3 trillion in 2012. (Again, all values are at annual rates.) Variable SGP does not reflect the bailout spending (variable CTGB) since this is counted as capital transfers. Because CTGB is positive (see above), the debt of the federal government is increasing somewhat faster in 2009 than the values of SGP would imply. The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $11.6 trillion at the end of 2012, which is 69 percent of nominal GDP (variable GDP). This is up from 46 percent in 2009:2. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, rise from $253.7 billion in 2009:2 to $521.0 billion in 2012:4 as a result of the increasing debt.

U.S. Current Account: The U.S. current account deficit, variable SR, is forecast to rise from $396.5 billion in 2009:2 to $820.0 billion in 2012:4.

Comments on the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

One of the reasons the model is predicting slow growth for the rest of 2009 in spite of the stimulus measures is the negative wealth effect from the past fall in stock prices and housing prices. Why, however, is the economy predicted to be no worse? Why no predicted further large decreases in real GDP? One reason is that model is predicting a large inventory correction in 2009:3 and beyond. Inventory investment (variable IVF) was very low in 2009:1 and 2009:2, and it is not predicted to remain this low. Also, there was a large negative residual in 2009:2 in the housing investment equation (IHH). (This residual is after correcting for serial correlation of the error term.) For the forecast all future error terms are assumed to be zero, and this, other things being equal, results in a positive predicted change in IHH in 2009:3. In the model the error terms are random shocks with means zero, and so zero is used for the future values. In order for the model to predict a much worse economy, one would have to put in some large future negative shocks, like the observed shock to the IHH equation in 2009:2, which has not been done. It may be, of course, that there will be large future negative shocks to the investment and consumption equations, due, say, to financial issues that are not in the model. The model, for example, does not account for possible credit rationing on consumers and investors from the financial distress. If there are large future negative shocks, the current forecast will turn out to be too optimistic. If you have views about the size of possible shocks to some of the equations, you can put these shocks into the model and examine the results. The following are other experiments that might also be of interest.

Regarding inflation, you may want to increase PIM if you think oil prices will begin to rise again or the dollar to depreciate. The assumption about PIM for the current forecast is that it will grow at an annual rate of 4.0 percent throughout the forecast period, which may be low. If you increase PIM, inflation will, of course, be higher than is currently forecast.

If you think housing prices will fall further, you can decrease PSI14, which will lower PKH relative to PD and decrease housing wealth, PIH*KH. This will affect consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3).

Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

If you have different views about the stimulus bill than those used for the forecast, it is easy to run alternative experiments. The simplest thing to do, as discussed above, is to put all the changes in TRGH and COG. Remember that TRGH is in nominal terms and COG is in real terms.

You may also want to raise tax rates in 2011 and 2012, say the federal personal income tax rate D1G. Some people are of the view that taxes will have to be raised in 2011 and 2012 to keep the federal government deficit under control.

Another change is to change the assumptions about the bailout measures, namely the values of CTGB. If you think the bailout will cost more than the values used for CTGB, you can increase CTGB. The main effect of increase CTGB is to increase the federal government debt, variable -AG.

Finally, if you think that a health care bill will be passed that is not budget neutral, you may want to increase TRGH in the future to reflect possible increased costs to the federal government.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2005 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 12127.7 2.8 5518.3 3.8 1888.9 3.8 1031.0 4.5 20042 12213.9 2.9 5551.7 2.4 1893.9 1.1 1038.3 2.9 20043 12303.6 3.0 5589.6 2.8 1907.8 3.0 1058.7 8.1 20044 12410.3 3.5 5650.8 4.5 1927.6 4.2 1076.1 6.7 20051 12534.1 4.1 5686.4 2.5 1949.6 4.6 1083.3 2.7 20052 12587.6 1.7 5727.9 3.0 1961.5 2.5 1113.6 11.7 20053 12683.1 3.1 5767.2 2.8 1971.8 2.1 1126.7 4.8 20054 12748.7 2.1 5798.9 2.2 1990.7 3.9 1098.4 -9.7 20061 12915.9 5.4 5841.0 2.9 2003.7 2.6 1142.3 17.0 20062 12962.4 1.4 5884.2 3.0 2011.5 1.6 1139.4 -1.0 20063 12966.0 0.1 5914.3 2.1 2024.5 2.6 1152.1 4.5 20064 13060.6 3.0 5959.4 3.1 2054.7 6.1 1167.9 5.6 20071 13100.0 1.2 6011.7 3.6 2070.3 3.1 1183.7 5.5 20072 13204.0 3.2 6036.3 1.6 2066.1 -0.8 1189.9 2.1 20073 13321.1 3.6 6055.5 1.3 2076.8 2.1 1205.0 5.2 20074 13391.3 2.1 6059.8 0.3 2086.0 1.8 1221.2 5.5 20081 13366.9 -0.7 6087.1 1.8 2070.1 -3.0 1193.2 -8.9 20082 13415.3 1.5 6092.5 0.4 2081.3 2.2 1175.7 -5.7 20083 13324.7 -2.7 6072.4 -1.3 2051.4 -5.6 1139.6 -11.7 20084 13141.9 -5.4 6080.4 0.5 2026.1 -4.8 1076.8 -20.3 20091 12925.4 -6.4 6076.1 -0.3 2035.4 1.8 1087.2 3.9 20092 12892.4 -1.0 6077.3 0.1 2022.3 -2.5 1067.5 -7.1 20093 12897.3 0.2 6104.7 1.8 2023.5 0.2 1082.4 5.7 20094 12924.2 0.8 6135.2 2.0 2029.8 1.2 1099.8 6.6 20101 13023.2 3.1 6169.2 2.2 2039.3 1.9 1120.7 7.8 20102 13164.1 4.4 6206.7 2.5 2051.4 2.4 1144.9 8.9 20103 13327.0 5.0 6247.0 2.6 2065.4 2.8 1171.4 9.6 20104 13435.5 3.3 6277.4 2.0 2076.8 2.2 1184.0 4.4 20111 13546.4 3.3 6308.8 2.0 2088.2 2.2 1199.3 5.3 20112 13671.7 3.8 6341.3 2.1 2100.0 2.3 1216.4 5.8 20113 13808.0 4.0 6375.2 2.2 2112.0 2.3 1234.3 6.0 20114 13923.5 3.4 6405.6 1.9 2122.8 2.1 1247.8 4.4 20121 14037.9 3.3 6435.5 1.9 2133.4 2.0 1262.4 4.8 20122 14157.0 3.4 6465.9 1.9 2143.8 2.0 1277.4 4.8 20123 14280.6 3.5 6499.8 2.1 2153.9 1.9 1290.9 4.3 20124 14400.8 3.4 6538.1 2.4 2163.7 1.8 1302.2 3.6
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 607.0 3.2 990.4 -2.5 52.4 1829.8 10.6 20042 631.5 17.2 1020.9 12.9 78.7 1903.1 17.0 20043 637.6 3.9 1040.0 7.7 62.7 1930.7 5.9 20044 641.2 2.3 1026.8 -5.0 71.6 1979.7 10.5 20051 652.6 7.3 1101.1 32.2 91.4 1991.0 2.3 20052 668.5 10.1 1100.4 -0.3 15.5 2012.9 4.5 20053 675.7 4.4 1133.4 12.6 11.8 2025.2 2.5 20054 674.6 -0.7 1182.6 18.5 81.0 2082.0 11.7 20061 664.8 -5.7 1197.6 5.2 65.8 2121.3 7.8 20062 634.5 -17.0 1218.4 7.2 72.5 2144.9 4.5 20063 597.9 -21.2 1265.4 16.3 67.5 2170.6 4.9 20064 565.8 -19.8 1326.6 20.8 31.8 2168.1 -0.5 20071 541.1 -16.4 1285.6 -11.8 14.5 2190.9 4.3 20072 522.3 -13.2 1297.6 3.8 23.3 2188.1 -0.5 20073 489.7 -22.7 1309.8 3.8 29.8 2208.4 3.8 20074 448.0 -29.9 1340.0 9.5 10.3 2188.0 -3.6 20081 411.8 -28.6 1370.5 9.4 0.6 2174.3 -2.5 20082 394.4 -15.9 1384.3 4.1 -37.1 2146.5 -5.0 20083 377.6 -15.9 1354.7 -8.3 -29.7 2134.4 -2.2 20084 351.9 -24.6 1293.2 -17.0 -37.4 2038.9 -16.7 20091 307.8 -41.5 1138.5 -39.9 -113.9 1821.0 -36.4 20092 282.2 -29.3 1112.1 -8.9 -141.1 1748.2 -15.1 20093 303.1 33.1 1070.5 -14.1 -110.3 1791.0 10.2 20094 333.6 46.9 1024.4 -16.2 -67.5 1826.2 8.1 20101 372.8 55.8 1005.8 -7.1 -40.3 1859.2 7.4 20102 416.7 56.2 1016.6 4.4 -12.6 1894.6 7.8 20103 463.0 52.4 1042.5 10.6 17.0 1934.1 8.6 20104 473.9 9.8 1065.2 9.0 52.7 1971.5 8.0 20111 492.2 16.4 1095.9 12.0 50.4 2009.2 7.9 20112 514.2 19.1 1135.3 15.2 47.3 2048.6 8.1 20113 537.5 19.4 1179.1 16.4 49.0 2090.4 8.4 20114 548.6 8.5 1221.0 15.0 58.2 2132.2 8.2 20121 561.1 9.5 1265.8 15.5 55.2 2174.6 8.2 20122 573.8 9.3 1314.2 16.2 52.2 2218.0 8.2 20123 585.8 8.6 1364.4 16.2 51.4 2262.7 8.3 20124 596.3 7.4 1414.5 15.5 53.4 2308.5 8.3
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.5 2.5 1.5 -1.0 20042 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.5 20043 2.9 3.7 5.8 2.0 20044 3.0 2.9 3.5 0.6 20051 3.8 3.3 -0.6 -3.8 20052 2.7 2.7 3.0 0.2 20053 4.2 4.6 7.2 2.5 20054 3.4 3.4 1.1 -2.2 20061 3.0 2.6 8.1 5.4 20062 3.6 3.9 1.3 -2.5 20063 3.1 2.6 1.7 -0.8 20064 1.8 1.3 6.9 5.5 20071 4.3 3.4 4.1 0.7 20072 2.7 2.7 0.8 -1.8 20073 1.7 1.5 3.7 2.1 20074 2.4 2.0 4.4 2.4 20081 2.0 1.7 2.6 0.9 20082 1.8 2.4 1.9 -0.5 20083 4.1 4.5 6.0 1.4 20084 0.0 0.6 6.4 5.7 20091 1.9 2.4 -4.4 -6.6 20092 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 20093 -0.5 -1.1 2.3 3.5 20094 -0.4 -1.0 2.4 3.5 20101 -0.2 -0.6 2.8 3.3 20102 0.3 0.0 3.2 3.2 20103 0.9 0.6 3.7 3.0 20104 1.6 1.2 4.1 2.9 20111 1.9 1.7 4.5 2.8 20112 2.3 2.1 4.8 2.7 20113 2.7 2.5 5.1 2.5 20114 3.1 2.9 5.4 2.5 20121 3.3 3.1 5.6 2.4 20122 3.5 3.3 5.7 2.3 20123 3.7 3.5 5.8 2.2 20124 3.8 3.7 5.9 2.2
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1487.9 6.1 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1501.9 3.8 78.2 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.7 6.8 73.7 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.5 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1545.8 -2.3 74.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1551.8 1.6 73.4 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1548.4 -0.9 70.2 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 1.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1567.1 3.5 68.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1561.2 -1.5 68.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1542.7 -4.7 65.7 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1556.4 4.5 67.3 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1537.8 -4.7 66.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1521.8 -4.1 73.4 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1548.0 7.0 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1547.4 -0.1 -34.3 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1558.3 2.9 -89.9 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1683.6 36.2 78.9 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1806.9 32.7 369.9 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1771.5 -7.6 305.3 20092 0.2 5.5 5.0 1862.5 22.2 300.0 20093 0.0 5.3 4.8 1879.6 3.7 283.7 20094 0.0 5.0 4.5 1896.2 3.6 268.3 20101 0.0 4.8 4.3 1912.6 3.5 253.8 20102 0.0 4.6 4.2 1929.1 3.5 240.0 20103 0.2 4.4 4.1 1945.2 3.4 227.0 20104 0.5 4.3 4.1 1960.7 3.2 214.7 20111 0.7 4.2 4.1 1976.0 3.1 203.0 20112 1.0 4.2 4.1 1991.1 3.1 192.0 20113 1.2 4.2 4.2 2006.2 3.1 181.6 20114 1.5 4.2 4.3 2021.2 3.0 171.7 20121 1.7 4.2 4.4 2036.4 3.0 162.4 20122 2.0 4.3 4.6 2051.9 3.1 153.6 20123 2.2 4.3 4.7 2067.6 3.1 145.3 20124 2.4 4.4 4.8 2083.7 3.2 137.4
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.0 0.1 5.3 0.9 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 1.2 -0.2 2.6 2.0 1.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 0.0 4.3 1.5 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.1 7.8 20052 5.1 1.1 1.0 5.3 2.0 3.0 7.6 20053 5.0 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.3 2.1 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.6 0.6 2.6 1.5 1.0 7.4 20061 4.7 1.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 2.5 7.1 20062 4.7 0.5 0.4 4.2 1.5 1.8 7.1 20063 4.6 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 7.0 20064 4.4 1.8 0.1 4.2 1.6 2.9 6.7 20071 4.5 2.4 -0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 6.9 20072 4.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 6.9 20073 4.7 -0.3 1.5 1.8 -0.7 0.3 7.2 20074 4.8 0.9 0.3 2.7 1.2 0.8 7.3 20081 4.9 -1.6 0.0 2.8 -0.9 -0.4 7.6 20082 5.4 -0.4 1.9 3.0 -1.2 -0.4 8.3 20083 6.0 1.7 -0.6 1.6 -2.0 -1.8 9.4 20084 6.9 -1.8 0.5 1.5 -5.4 -3.4 10.6 20091 8.1 -4.4 -1.0 0.8 -6.2 -6.6 12.4 20092 9.2 2.8 0.6 3.7 -5.0 -2.7 14.3 20093 9.9 -0.1 1.1 0.3 -2.9 -2.3 15.3 20094 10.2 -0.2 1.1 0.2 -1.5 -1.0 15.8 20101 10.1 -0.2 1.1 0.3 -0.1 0.6 15.7 20102 9.9 -0.2 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 15.3 20103 9.4 -0.1 1.1 0.6 2.3 2.3 14.7 20104 9.1 -0.1 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.3 14.1 20111 8.7 -0.1 1.0 1.1 2.5 2.3 13.6 20112 8.3 -0.1 1.0 1.3 2.6 2.3 13.0 20113 8.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.3 12.5 20114 7.7 0.0 1.0 1.6 2.6 2.1 12.1 20121 7.4 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.0 11.7 20122 7.2 0.0 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 11.4 20123 7.0 0.0 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.8 11.1 20124 6.8 0.0 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.7 10.8
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2292.9 792.4 95.3 3.2 1.3 540.6 -409.5 -22.8 20042 763.4 859.5 38.4 3.7 4.1 618.8 -384.5 -20.9 20043 -254.2 919.2 30.8 3.4 2.7 636.8 -361.5 -3.6 20044 8261.7 904.2 -6.4 3.6 -0.6 719.7 -362.3 13.7 20051 826.3 1135.0 148.3 1.6 1.6 699.0 -289.0 25.1 20052 3001.3 1179.1 16.5 1.3 1.5 708.6 -288.3 18.9 20053 5360.4 1162.5 -5.5 1.2 5.6 739.4 -287.5 25.4 20054 3762.4 1302.4 57.5 1.5 0.1 833.7 -267.5 34.5 20061 6699.9 1350.0 15.4 2.2 -2.5 794.3 -207.2 62.4 20062 -1760.5 1353.4 1.0 2.5 0.3 815.6 -229.5 63.2 20063 3062.4 1432.0 25.3 2.3 -0.5 858.0 -215.6 42.3 20064 7225.1 1369.6 -16.3 2.6 1.1 744.3 -162.9 35.9 20071 3665.9 1364.8 -1.4 2.1 0.9 804.2 -201.1 32.8 20072 5657.4 1403.1 11.7 1.8 2.1 767.3 -221.2 35.1 20073 880.1 1380.8 -6.2 1.6 6.9 689.6 -258.9 20.3 20074 -3826.3 1481.9 32.7 1.5 4.2 656.7 -265.0 -1.3 20081 -7605.2 1275.3 -45.1 1.2 2.2 722.5 -433.6 -20.2 20082 -3652.7 1265.3 -3.1 3.5 4.6 758.4 -797.1 -25.5 20083 -8998.5 1281.0 5.0 2.2 1.3 742.1 -665.9 -59.2 20084 -16563.3 929.9 -72.2 3.9 5.1 626.0 -674.1 -56.1 20091 -3519.2 992.3 29.7 4.1 -4.4 414.7 -959.6 -36.6 20092 4800.0 1099.9 50.9 5.3 5.1 396.5 -1298.3 -13.1 20093 1721.9 1096.3 -1.3 6.9 2.6 474.5 -1479.8 -53.4 20094 1363.3 1055.8 -14.0 7.1 1.8 544.3 -1526.5 -43.5 20101 1786.9 1053.3 -0.9 7.4 2.4 585.4 -1556.1 -37.8 20102 1995.0 1073.5 7.9 7.7 2.4 627.5 -1573.6 -25.6 20103 1956.9 1103.0 11.5 7.9 2.2 672.5 -1582.3 -9.9 20104 1446.4 1094.1 -3.2 6.0 0.6 713.7 -1331.0 0.5 20111 1462.8 1090.1 -1.5 6.3 0.7 728.9 -1342.8 9.9 20112 1594.5 1102.1 4.5 6.6 1.1 743.9 -1350.3 19.1 20113 1666.6 1126.3 9.1 6.8 1.3 759.4 -1353.1 28.1 20114 1513.1 1139.5 4.8 6.3 0.9 772.9 -1259.8 34.2 20121 1546.0 1156.9 6.2 6.6 1.1 785.2 -1263.8 39.0 20122 1619.0 1182.1 9.0 6.7 1.3 796.8 -1266.6 43.3 20123 1674.8 1214.1 11.2 6.9 1.5 808.1 -1267.3 47.4 20124 1661.6 1245.4 10.7 7.0 1.5 819.1 -1260.1 51.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 8.9 -0.9 9.8 987.4 8.4 9.1 20042 5.0 1.1 6.4 995.9 3.5 5.7 20043 12.9 -5.7 3.0 1004.8 3.6 4.2 20044 -11.8 -4.7 9.4 1017.2 5.0 10.0 20051 2.8 -2.5 7.6 1045.7 11.7 3.5 20052 1.9 0.6 8.8 1055.0 3.6 5.7 20053 20.6 -1.5 0.1 1069.4 5.6 8.5 20054 -13.9 3.9 10.4 1082.2 4.9 8.1 20061 28.4 -2.5 16.5 1138.5 22.5 1.6 20062 -6.6 6.0 6.9 1161.7 8.4 4.3 20063 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 1170.2 3.0 3.1 20064 2.1 -0.4 17.8 1183.8 4.7 -4.6 20071 -9.0 5.7 3.5 1209.1 8.8 3.2 20072 15.6 3.7 5.2 1228.2 6.5 6.3 20073 14.6 1.0 18.5 1245.0 5.6 6.1 20074 3.5 -0.3 14.5 1259.9 4.9 20.4 20081 11.6 -5.5 -0.1 1294.4 11.4 15.4 20082 11.0 1.3 12.1 1630.7 151.9 21.3 20083 19.5 -1.9 -3.6 1419.9 -42.5 7.1 20084 6.9 -6.1 -19.4 1387.9 -8.7 -34.3 20091 -11.7 -4.0 -29.9 1473.3 27.0 -28.2 20092 13.9 6.7 -7.0 1651.9 58.0 4.3 20093 12.1 -3.0 -4.0 1899.3 74.8 3.0 20094 1.6 -3.0 -4.0 1921.8 4.8 3.0 20101 1.9 1.0 3.0 1944.5 4.8 3.0 20102 1.9 1.0 3.0 1967.6 4.8 3.0 20103 1.6 1.0 3.0 1991.1 4.9 3.0 20104 3.3 1.0 3.0 1747.7 -40.6 3.0 20111 1.6 1.0 10.0 1771.8 5.6 3.0 20112 1.9 1.0 10.0 1796.3 5.6 3.0 20113 1.6 1.0 10.0 1821.1 5.6 3.0 20114 -2.5 1.0 10.0 1755.2 -13.7 3.0 20121 1.6 1.0 10.0 1780.7 6.0 3.0 20122 1.9 1.0 10.0 1806.7 6.0 3.0 20123 1.6 1.0 10.0 1833.0 6.0 3.0 20124 -2.7 1.0 10.0 1859.4 5.9 3.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2216.3 909.0 192.0 91.8 957.2 20092 2200.9 865.9 208.9 98.1 946.4 20093 2262.8 927.1 208.3 98.5 947.3 20094 2270.4 935.3 201.9 99.0 952.6 20101 2296.1 950.6 201.6 99.7 962.7 20102 2335.7 971.4 204.7 100.6 977.4 20103 2385.4 997.1 209.4 101.7 995.6 20104 2429.4 1023.3 208.0 102.6 1013.9 20111 2476.5 1050.9 207.3 103.8 1033.0 20112 2529.8 1080.7 209.2 105.0 1053.3 20113 2588.7 1112.8 213.0 106.4 1074.9 20114 2646.2 1145.4 215.1 107.7 1096.4 20121 2705.6 1179.0 217.8 109.1 1118.1 20122 2768.0 1213.8 221.8 110.6 1140.2 20123 2833.6 1250.1 226.8 112.2 1162.9 20124 2900.4 1287.5 231.7 113.9 1185.8
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2314.1 706.4 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3175.9 954.2 1473.3 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -959.6 20092 3499.2 979.8 1651.9 56.8 497.9 253.7 59.1 -1298.3 20093 3742.6 998.1 1899.3 56.8 453.5 275.8 59.1 -1479.8 20094 3796.9 1002.3 1921.8 56.8 459.1 297.9 59.1 -1526.5 20101 3852.3 1007.8 1944.5 56.8 464.7 319.3 59.1 -1556.1 20102 3909.3 1014.7 1967.6 56.8 470.4 340.6 59.1 -1573.6 20103 3967.7 1022.7 1991.1 56.8 476.2 361.8 59.1 -1582.3 20104 3760.4 1034.7 1747.7 56.8 482.0 380.1 59.1 -1331.0 20111 3819.3 1045.3 1771.8 56.8 487.9 398.4 59.1 -1342.8 20112 3880.1 1057.5 1796.3 56.8 493.9 416.4 59.1 -1350.3 20113 3941.8 1070.4 1821.1 56.8 500.0 434.4 59.1 -1353.1 20114 3906.0 1077.5 1755.2 56.8 506.1 451.4 59.1 -1259.8 20121 3969.4 1092.1 1780.7 56.8 512.3 468.4 59.1 -1263.8 20122 4034.7 1107.8 1806.7 56.8 518.6 485.6 59.1 -1266.6 20123 4100.8 1123.7 1833.0 56.8 525.0 503.2 59.1 -1267.3 20124 4160.5 1132.8 1859.4 56.8 531.4 521.0 59.1 -1260.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1831.7 259.7 56.8 946.0 21.7 497.9 20093 1800.6 269.6 56.6 949.5 21.8 453.5 20094 1811.5 271.7 54.9 954.4 21.8 459.1 20101 1827.5 275.5 54.8 961.0 21.9 464.7 20102 1848.0 280.6 55.7 969.7 22.0 470.4 20103 1872.2 287.0 56.9 980.5 22.1 476.2 20104 1893.5 293.3 56.5 989.8 22.2 482.0 20111 1916.7 300.1 56.4 1000.5 22.2 487.9 20112 1942.5 307.3 56.9 1012.5 22.3 493.9 20113 1970.6 315.1 57.9 1025.7 22.4 500.0 20114 1998.3 322.9 58.5 1038.7 22.5 506.1 20121 2027.1 330.9 59.2 1052.5 22.5 512.3 20122 2057.3 339.3 60.3 1066.9 22.6 518.6 20123 2089.0 347.9 61.7 1082.2 22.7 525.0 20124 2121.6 356.8 63.0 1098.1 22.8 531.4
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 -36.6 20092 1844.8 1429.3 405.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -13.1 20093 1854.0 1423.5 420.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -53.4 20094 1854.9 1418.2 426.6 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -43.5 20101 1865.3 1429.2 425.9 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -37.8 20102 1873.6 1442.3 421.1 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -25.6 20103 1882.1 1457.8 414.1 5.2 -2.3 5.0 -9.9 20104 1893.0 1475.4 407.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.5 20111 1906.8 1495.0 401.6 5.2 -2.3 5.0 9.9 20112 1923.4 1516.3 396.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 19.1 20113 1942.5 1539.5 392.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 28.1 20114 1964.1 1564.1 389.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 34.2 20121 1988.1 1590.0 387.9 5.2 -2.3 5.0 39.0 20122 2014.0 1617.1 386.7 5.2 -2.3 5.0 43.3 20123 2041.6 1645.2 386.2 5.2 -2.3 5.0 47.4 20124 2070.7 1674.3 386.2 5.2 -2.3 5.0 51.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -155.4 63.4 124.2 540.6 -418.2 -154.6 20042 -148.0 -16.3 97.4 618.8 -394.6 -157.3 20043 -128.6 -33.3 40.1 636.8 -378.0 -137.0 20044 -159.9 -138.5 72.1 719.7 -376.8 -116.7 20051 -355.0 -101.5 161.2 699.0 -300.8 -102.9 20052 -400.9 8.1 98.3 708.6 -302.0 -112.1 20053 -240.2 -134.4 27.9 739.4 -301.0 -91.7 20054 -387.0 -131.9 73.7 833.7 -285.8 -102.7 20061 -331.8 -309.2 144.1 794.3 -224.8 -72.7 20062 -269.0 -361.9 146.4 815.6 -249.5 -81.6 20063 -248.2 -415.9 138.8 858.0 -230.4 -102.3 20064 -186.0 -470.8 203.9 744.3 -183.6 -107.8 20071 -210.3 -408.7 150.7 804.2 -215.8 -120.0 20072 -213.2 -348.1 157.2 767.3 -242.3 -120.9 20073 -192.9 -191.1 110.3 689.6 -279.5 -136.3 20074 -158.3 -125.8 75.6 656.7 -287.9 -160.3 20081 -150.0 -76.0 134.0 722.5 -454.9 -175.5 20082 119.6 23.4 115.5 758.4 -831.0 -186.0 20083 27.1 74.1 77.0 742.1 -701.3 -219.0 20084 213.8 110.0 -23.9 626.0 -717.6 -208.2 20091 292.9 379.0 91.4 414.7 -994.5 -183.4 20092 464.1 547.0 94.2 396.5 -1336.5 -165.4 20093 628.7 526.8 92.4 474.5 -1518.1 -204.4 20094 625.8 497.2 90.7 544.3 -1564.8 -193.3 20101 623.0 483.1 89.3 585.4 -1594.6 -186.3 20102 615.4 453.7 88.3 627.5 -1612.2 -172.7 20103 603.7 412.8 87.8 672.5 -1621.0 -155.7 20104 375.2 337.2 87.6 713.7 -1369.8 -143.9 20111 398.9 299.2 87.7 728.9 -1381.7 -133.0 20112 413.8 265.8 88.2 743.9 -1389.3 -122.4 20113 423.5 232.3 89.0 759.4 -1392.3 -111.8 20114 356.7 183.7 89.9 772.9 -1299.1 -104.2 20121 375.0 149.7 91.1 785.2 -1303.2 -97.7 20122 390.3 118.4 92.4 796.8 -1306.1 -91.8 20123 402.7 88.3 93.8 808.1 -1306.9 -86.1 20124 411.3 54.9 95.3 819.1 -1299.9 -80.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11597.2 8105.4 1045.9 1789.2 5270.3 20042 11778.4 8209.4 1052.3 1810.5 5346.6 20043 11950.6 8330.7 1065.0 1834.4 5431.3 20044 12144.9 8494.9 1083.1 1888.7 5523.1 20051 12379.5 8609.6 1089.2 1908.1 5612.3 20052 12516.8 8747.2 1117.9 1929.4 5699.9 20053 12741.6 8908.9 1122.5 2002.0 5784.4 20054 12915.6 9010.2 1092.3 2034.2 5883.7 20061 13183.5 9148.2 1132.5 2048.3 5967.4 20062 13347.8 9266.6 1125.1 2081.4 6060.1 20063 13453.0 9391.8 1132.4 2118.1 6141.3 20064 13611.6 9484.1 1142.2 2106.9 6235.0 20071 13795.6 9658.5 1153.0 2153.3 6352.2 20072 13997.2 9762.5 1154.9 2183.3 6424.3 20073 14179.9 9865.6 1161.4 2205.2 6499.0 20074 14337.9 10019.2 1172.7 2276.2 6570.3 20081 14382.8 10095.1 1145.8 2301.4 6647.9 20082 14497.7 10194.7 1126.5 2348.4 6719.8 20083 14546.7 10220.1 1088.5 2374.5 6757.1 20084 14347.3 10009.8 1019.9 2207.6 6782.3 20091 14177.8 9987.6 1025.2 2172.4 6790.0 20092 14149.6 9988.9 1007.4 2178.3 6803.2 20093 14135.9 10025.7 1020.5 2177.6 6827.5 20094 14150.5 10077.2 1036.4 2183.1 6857.8 20101 14252.9 10147.5 1056.3 2193.8 6897.4 20102 14418.8 10239.5 1080.6 2209.9 6949.0 20103 14630.1 10352.7 1108.6 2231.0 7013.1 20104 14806.9 10451.6 1124.9 2252.1 7074.7 20111 15000.5 10564.4 1144.9 2275.4 7144.2 20112 15226.6 10690.9 1167.8 2301.3 7221.8 20113 15481.5 10830.1 1192.7 2329.5 7307.8 20114 15729.3 10968.1 1214.4 2358.3 7395.4 20121 15987.7 11113.5 1238.1 2388.2 7487.1 20122 16262.5 11266.0 1263.0 2419.4 7583.6 20123 16553.1 11426.6 1287.1 2451.4 7688.1 20124 16849.6 11594.9 1309.8 2484.1 7801.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1853.6 1802.2 1164.6 637.6 51.4 20042 1956.0 1880.0 1204.4 675.6 76.0 20043 2001.4 1940.6 1244.0 696.6 60.8 20044 2063.2 1991.7 1279.1 712.6 71.5 20051 2130.7 2040.0 1305.2 734.8 90.7 20052 2115.3 2099.4 1334.9 764.5 15.9 20053 2166.5 2155.5 1362.9 792.6 11.0 20054 2276.4 2194.2 1386.3 807.9 82.2 20061 2336.5 2270.5 1457.2 813.3 66.0 20062 2352.1 2279.7 1495.3 784.4 72.4 20063 2333.5 2264.4 1522.7 741.7 69.1 20064 2286.5 2254.2 1546.1 708.1 32.3 20071 2267.2 2254.1 1574.1 680.0 13.1 20072 2302.1 2278.6 1623.5 655.1 23.5 20073 2311.8 2280.8 1665.2 615.6 31.0 20074 2272.9 2263.1 1697.9 565.2 9.8 20081 2223.8 2223.1 1705.0 518.1 0.7 20082 2164.6 2213.9 1719.7 494.2 -49.3 20083 2142.6 2179.6 1711.0 468.6 -37.0 20084 2022.0 2066.5 1638.7 427.8 -44.5 20091 1689.8 1817.2 1442.6 374.6 -127.4 20092 1585.5 1741.5 1395.9 345.6 -156.0 20093 1596.9 1718.7 1351.5 367.2 -121.8 20094 1627.1 1701.6 1302.8 398.8 -74.5 20101 1680.0 1724.4 1284.9 439.5 -44.5 20102 1772.1 1786.0 1300.3 485.7 -13.9 20103 1887.9 1869.0 1333.9 535.1 18.9 20104 1973.5 1914.9 1365.7 549.1 58.7 20111 2035.6 1979.2 1407.9 571.3 56.4 20112 2112.6 2059.4 1461.3 598.1 53.2 20113 2203.9 2148.5 1521.5 627.0 55.4 20114 2291.4 2225.1 1581.3 643.9 66.3 20121 2372.2 2308.8 1645.9 662.8 63.4 20122 2459.2 2398.8 1716.3 682.5 60.4 20123 2552.3 2492.3 1790.4 701.9 60.0 20124 2649.2 2586.4 1866.2 720.2 62.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -546.3 1138.8 1685.1 2184.5 805.1 1379.4 20042 -606.1 1170.8 1776.9 2219.1 819.9 1399.2 20043 -635.9 1185.4 1821.3 2254.4 839.1 1415.3 20044 -686.5 1225.9 1912.4 2273.3 834.5 1438.8 20051 -677.4 1262.4 1939.8 2316.6 862.0 1454.6 20052 -690.2 1298.5 1988.7 2344.5 867.2 1477.3 20053 -733.9 1308.2 2042.1 2400.1 894.1 1506.0 20054 -789.3 1351.3 2140.6 2418.3 881.9 1536.4 20061 -775.8 1414.0 2189.8 2474.6 928.5 1546.1 20062 -781.4 1456.0 2237.4 2510.5 930.3 1580.2 20063 -805.7 1476.0 2281.7 2533.4 932.2 1601.2 20064 -714.3 1538.2 2252.5 2555.3 935.9 1619.4 20071 -729.4 1564.9 2294.3 2599.3 942.8 1656.5 20072 -724.8 1602.1 2326.9 2657.4 968.1 1689.3 20073 -698.4 1685.2 2383.6 2700.9 991.4 1709.5 20074 -702.4 1771.6 2474.0 2748.2 1004.3 1743.9 20081 -744.5 1803.6 2548.1 2808.4 1038.3 1770.1 20082 -738.7 1901.5 2640.2 2877.1 1069.5 1807.6 20083 -757.4 1913.1 2670.5 2941.4 1108.3 1833.1 20084 -590.5 1706.2 2296.7 2906.0 1114.3 1791.7 20091 -378.6 1509.3 1887.9 2879.0 1106.7 1772.3 20092 -347.8 1483.7 1831.5 2923.0 1137.4 1785.6 20093 -425.8 1464.5 1890.3 2939.2 1157.6 1781.5 20094 -495.6 1446.1 1941.7 2941.8 1163.8 1778.0 20101 -536.7 1454.8 1991.5 2962.2 1171.3 1790.9 20102 -578.8 1465.6 2044.4 2986.0 1180.2 1805.8 20103 -623.8 1478.7 2102.5 3013.2 1190.2 1823.0 20104 -665.0 1494.1 2159.1 3046.7 1204.3 1842.5 20111 -680.2 1536.4 2216.7 3080.8 1217.0 1863.8 20112 -695.2 1581.7 2276.9 3118.3 1231.3 1887.0 20113 -710.7 1630.0 2340.7 3158.3 1246.3 1912.0 20114 -724.2 1681.0 2405.2 3194.0 1255.5 1938.5 20121 -736.5 1734.7 2471.2 3238.5 1272.3 1966.2 20122 -748.1 1791.1 2539.2 3285.4 1290.2 1995.2 20123 -759.4 1850.1 2609.5 3333.6 1308.4 2025.2 20124 -770.4 1911.6 2682.1 3375.9 1319.8 2056.1
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2005 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 12127.7 8438.2 1031.0 1888.9 5518.3 20042 12213.9 8483.9 1038.3 1893.9 5551.7 20043 12303.6 8556.1 1058.7 1907.8 5589.6 20044 12410.3 8654.5 1076.1 1927.6 5650.8 20051 12534.1 8719.3 1083.3 1949.6 5686.4 20052 12587.6 8803.0 1113.6 1961.5 5727.9 20053 12683.1 8865.7 1126.7 1971.8 5767.2 20054 12748.7 8888.0 1098.4 1990.7 5798.9 20061 12915.9 8987.0 1142.3 2003.7 5841.0 20062 12962.4 9035.1 1139.4 2011.5 5884.2 20063 12966.0 9090.9 1152.1 2024.5 5914.3 20064 13060.6 9182.0 1167.9 2054.7 5959.4 20071 13100.0 9265.7 1183.7 2070.3 6011.7 20072 13204.0 9292.3 1189.9 2066.1 6036.3 20073 13321.1 9337.3 1205.0 2076.8 6055.5 20074 13391.3 9367.0 1221.2 2086.0 6059.8 20081 13366.9 9350.4 1193.2 2070.1 6087.1 20082 13415.3 9349.5 1175.7 2081.3 6092.5 20083 13324.7 9263.4 1139.6 2051.4 6072.4 20084 13141.9 9183.3 1076.8 2026.1 6080.4 20091 12925.4 9198.7 1087.2 2035.4 6076.1 20092 12892.4 9167.1 1067.5 2022.3 6077.3 20093 12897.3 9210.7 1082.4 2023.5 6104.7 20094 12924.2 9264.8 1099.8 2029.8 6135.2 20101 13023.2 9329.2 1120.7 2039.3 6169.2 20102 13164.1 9403.0 1144.9 2051.4 6206.7 20103 13327.0 9483.8 1171.4 2065.4 6247.0 20104 13435.5 9538.2 1184.0 2076.8 6277.4 20111 13546.4 9596.3 1199.3 2088.2 6308.8 20112 13671.7 9657.7 1216.4 2100.0 6341.3 20113 13808.0 9721.6 1234.3 2112.0 6375.2 20114 13923.5 9776.2 1247.8 2122.8 6405.6 20121 14037.9 9831.3 1262.4 2133.4 6435.5 20122 14157.0 9887.1 1277.4 2143.8 6465.9 20123 14280.6 9944.6 1290.9 2153.9 6499.8 20124 14400.8 10004.0 1302.2 2163.7 6538.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1971.1 1918.7 1214.2 704.5 52.4 20042 2056.7 1978.0 1247.0 731.0 78.7 20043 2082.4 2019.7 1281.2 738.5 62.7 20044 2125.3 2053.7 1309.5 744.2 71.6 20051 2170.6 2079.2 1321.5 757.7 91.4 20052 2131.7 2116.2 1340.8 775.4 15.5 20053 2154.8 2143.0 1359.7 783.3 11.8 20054 2231.8 2150.8 1367.2 783.6 81.0 20061 2265.9 2200.1 1424.9 775.2 65.8 20062 2262.9 2190.4 1450.3 740.1 72.5 20063 2230.9 2163.4 1466.0 697.4 67.5 20064 2166.6 2134.8 1474.5 660.3 31.8 20071 2135.9 2121.4 1489.6 631.8 14.5 20072 2163.9 2140.6 1530.2 610.4 23.3 20073 2168.6 2138.8 1565.8 573.0 29.8 20074 2126.6 2116.3 1591.3 525.0 10.3 20081 2082.8 2082.2 1598.9 483.3 0.6 20082 2030.3 2067.4 1604.4 463.0 -37.1 20083 1992.9 2022.6 1579.2 443.4 -29.7 20084 1873.6 1911.0 1496.0 415.0 -37.4 20091 1575.3 1689.2 1321.2 368.0 -113.9 20092 1486.9 1628.0 1290.6 337.4 -141.1 20093 1499.3 1609.6 1250.7 358.8 -110.3 20094 1528.8 1596.2 1206.3 390.0 -67.5 20101 1578.8 1619.1 1189.5 429.6 -40.3 20102 1663.6 1676.2 1202.0 474.1 -12.6 20103 1767.8 1750.7 1229.8 521.0 17.0 20104 1839.5 1786.8 1254.2 532.5 52.7 20111 1888.6 1838.2 1286.8 551.4 50.4 20112 1949.3 1902.0 1328.1 573.9 47.3 20113 2020.5 1971.6 1373.8 597.8 49.0 20114 2085.2 2027.0 1417.5 609.5 58.2 20121 2142.1 2086.9 1464.3 622.6 55.2 20122 2202.6 2150.5 1514.5 635.9 52.2 20123 2266.6 2215.2 1566.7 648.5 51.4 20124 2331.8 2278.5 1618.8 659.7 53.4
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -632.5 1197.3 1829.8 2355.1 20042 -687.1 1216.0 1903.1 2363.6 20043 -705.6 1225.1 1930.7 2372.1 20044 -726.7 1253.0 1979.7 2357.6 20051 -714.8 1276.2 1991.0 2359.9 20052 -709.4 1303.5 2012.9 2362.4 20053 -721.3 1303.9 2025.2 2383.9 20054 -745.3 1336.7 2082.0 2373.3 20061 -732.5 1388.8 2121.3 2397.2 20062 -732.8 1412.1 2144.9 2399.1 20063 -756.5 1414.1 2170.6 2402.8 20064 -694.9 1473.2 2168.1 2409.5 20071 -705.0 1485.9 2190.9 2409.3 20072 -683.3 1504.8 2188.1 2435.2 20073 -638.5 1569.9 2208.4 2459.1 20074 -564.0 1624.0 2188.0 2468.8 20081 -550.8 1623.5 2174.3 2485.3 20082 -476.0 1670.5 2146.5 2507.9 20083 -479.2 1655.2 2134.4 2538.6 20084 -470.8 1568.1 2038.9 2546.6 20091 -386.4 1434.6 1821.0 2529.6 20092 -339.3 1408.9 1748.2 2565.0 20093 -396.4 1394.6 1791.0 2571.0 20094 -445.7 1380.4 1826.2 2563.7 20101 -468.6 1390.7 1859.2 2571.1 20102 -493.6 1401.0 1894.6 2578.4 20103 -522.7 1411.4 1934.1 2585.4 20104 -549.7 1421.8 1971.5 2594.8 20111 -553.0 1456.1 2009.2 2601.9 20112 -557.4 1491.2 2048.6 2609.4 20113 -563.2 1527.2 2090.4 2616.4 20114 -568.2 1564.0 2132.2 2617.6 20121 -572.9 1601.7 2174.6 2624.7 20122 -577.7 1640.4 2218.0 2632.3 20123 -582.7 1679.9 2262.7 2639.5 20124 -588.0 1720.4 2308.5 2640.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2216.3 909.0 192.0 91.8 957.2 20092 2200.9 865.9 208.9 98.1 946.4 20093 2262.8 927.1 208.3 98.5 947.3 20094 2270.4 935.3 201.9 99.0 952.6 20101 2296.1 950.6 201.6 99.7 962.7 20102 2335.7 971.4 204.7 100.6 977.4 20103 2385.4 997.1 209.4 101.7 995.6 20104 2429.4 1023.3 208.0 102.6 1013.9 20111 2476.5 1050.9 207.3 103.8 1033.0 20112 2529.8 1080.7 209.2 105.0 1053.3 20113 2588.7 1112.8 213.0 106.4 1074.9 20114 2646.2 1145.4 215.1 107.7 1096.4 20121 2705.6 1179.0 217.8 109.1 1118.1 20122 2768.0 1213.8 221.8 110.6 1140.2 20123 2833.6 1250.1 226.8 112.2 1162.9 20124 2900.4 1287.5 231.7 113.9 1185.8
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2314.1 706.4 1026.5 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 1024.5 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1034.8 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1045.9 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1090.4 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1087.5 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1105.8 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1128.5 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1170.1 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1199.8 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1209.4 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1208.5 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1260.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1259.0 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1282.3 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1306.0 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1343.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1678.7 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1462.2 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1432.0 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3175.9 954.2 1514.3 1473.3 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -959.6 20092 3499.2 979.8 1708.7 1651.9 56.8 497.9 253.7 59.1 -1298.3 20093 3742.6 998.1 1956.1 1899.3 56.8 453.5 275.8 59.1 -1479.8 20094 3796.9 1002.3 1978.6 1921.8 56.8 459.1 297.9 59.1 -1526.5 20101 3852.3 1007.8 2001.3 1944.5 56.8 464.7 319.3 59.1 -1556.1 20102 3909.3 1014.7 2024.4 1967.6 56.8 470.4 340.6 59.1 -1573.6 20103 3967.7 1022.7 2047.9 1991.1 56.8 476.2 361.8 59.1 -1582.3 20104 3760.4 1034.7 1804.5 1747.7 56.8 482.0 380.1 59.1 -1331.0 20111 3819.3 1045.3 1828.6 1771.8 56.8 487.9 398.4 59.1 -1342.8 20112 3880.1 1057.5 1853.1 1796.3 56.8 493.9 416.4 59.1 -1350.3 20113 3941.8 1070.4 1877.9 1821.1 56.8 500.0 434.4 59.1 -1353.1 20114 3906.0 1077.5 1812.0 1755.2 56.8 506.1 451.4 59.1 -1259.8 20121 3969.4 1092.1 1837.5 1780.7 56.8 512.3 468.4 59.1 -1263.8 20122 4034.7 1107.8 1863.5 1806.7 56.8 518.6 485.6 59.1 -1266.6 20123 4100.8 1123.7 1889.8 1833.0 56.8 525.0 503.2 59.1 -1267.3 20124 4160.5 1132.8 1916.2 1859.4 56.8 531.4 521.0 59.1 -1260.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1831.7 259.7 56.8 946.0 21.7 497.9 20093 1800.6 269.6 56.6 949.5 21.8 453.5 20094 1811.5 271.7 54.9 954.4 21.8 459.1 20101 1827.5 275.5 54.8 961.0 21.9 464.7 20102 1848.0 280.6 55.7 969.7 22.0 470.4 20103 1872.2 287.0 56.9 980.5 22.1 476.2 20104 1893.5 293.3 56.5 989.8 22.2 482.0 20111 1916.7 300.1 56.4 1000.5 22.2 487.9 20112 1942.5 307.3 56.9 1012.5 22.3 493.9 20113 1970.6 315.1 57.9 1025.7 22.4 500.0 20114 1998.3 322.9 58.5 1038.7 22.5 506.1 20121 2027.1 330.9 59.2 1052.5 22.5 512.3 20122 2057.3 339.3 60.3 1066.9 22.6 518.6 20123 2089.0 347.9 61.7 1082.2 22.7 525.0 20124 2121.6 356.8 63.0 1098.1 22.8 531.4
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 0.0 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 0.0 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 0.0 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 0.0 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 0.0 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 0.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 0.0 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 0.0 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 0.0 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 0.0 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 0.0 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 0.0 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 0.0 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 0.0 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 0.0 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 0.0 -36.6 20092 1844.8 1429.3 405.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -13.1 20093 1854.0 1423.5 420.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -53.4 20094 1854.9 1418.2 426.6 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -43.5 20101 1865.3 1429.2 425.9 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -37.8 20102 1873.6 1442.3 421.1 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -25.6 20103 1882.1 1457.8 414.1 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 -9.9 20104 1893.0 1475.4 407.3 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 0.5 20111 1906.8 1495.0 401.6 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 9.9 20112 1923.4 1516.3 396.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 19.1 20113 1942.5 1539.5 392.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 28.1 20114 1964.1 1564.1 389.8 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 34.2 20121 1988.1 1590.0 387.9 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 39.0 20122 2014.0 1617.1 386.7 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 43.3 20123 2041.6 1645.2 386.2 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 47.4 20124 2070.7 1674.3 386.2 5.2 -2.3 5.0 0.0 51.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2005=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 95.6 96.1 101.4 94.7 95.5 20042 96.4 96.8 101.3 95.6 96.3 20043 97.1 97.4 100.6 96.2 97.2 20044 97.9 98.2 100.7 98.0 97.7 20051 98.8 98.7 100.5 97.9 98.7 20052 99.4 99.4 100.4 98.4 99.5 20053 100.5 100.5 99.6 101.5 100.3 20054 101.3 101.4 99.4 102.2 101.5 20061 102.1 101.8 99.1 102.2 102.2 20062 103.0 102.6 98.7 103.5 103.0 20063 103.8 103.3 98.3 104.6 103.8 20064 104.2 103.3 97.8 102.5 104.6 20071 105.3 104.2 97.4 104.0 105.7 20072 106.0 105.1 97.1 105.7 106.4 20073 106.4 105.7 96.4 106.2 107.3 20074 107.1 107.0 96.0 109.1 108.4 20081 107.6 108.0 96.0 111.2 109.2 20082 108.1 109.0 95.8 112.8 110.3 20083 109.2 110.3 95.5 115.8 111.3 20084 109.2 109.0 94.7 109.0 111.5 20091 109.7 108.6 94.3 106.7 111.7 20092 109.8 109.0 94.4 107.7 111.9 20093 109.6 108.8 94.3 107.6 111.8 20094 109.5 108.8 94.2 107.6 111.8 20101 109.4 108.8 94.3 107.6 111.8 20102 109.5 108.9 94.4 107.7 112.0 20103 109.8 109.2 94.6 108.0 112.3 20104 110.2 109.6 95.0 108.4 112.7 20111 110.7 110.1 95.5 109.0 113.2 20112 111.4 110.7 96.0 109.6 113.9 20113 112.1 111.4 96.6 110.3 114.6 20114 113.0 112.2 97.3 111.1 115.5 20121 113.9 113.0 98.1 111.9 116.3 20122 114.9 113.9 98.9 112.9 117.3 20123 115.9 114.9 99.7 113.8 118.3 20124 117.0 115.9 100.6 114.8 119.3
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 93.9 95.9 90.5 95.1 92.1 92.8 20042 95.0 96.6 92.4 96.3 93.4 93.9 20043 96.1 97.1 94.3 96.8 94.3 95.0 20044 97.0 97.7 95.8 97.8 96.6 96.4 20051 98.1 98.8 97.0 98.9 97.4 98.2 20052 99.2 99.6 98.6 99.6 98.8 99.2 20053 100.6 100.2 101.2 100.3 100.8 100.7 20054 102.0 101.4 103.1 101.1 102.8 101.9 20061 103.2 102.3 104.9 101.8 103.2 103.2 20062 104.1 103.1 106.0 103.1 104.3 104.6 20063 104.7 103.9 106.4 104.4 105.1 105.4 20064 105.6 104.9 107.2 104.4 103.9 106.1 20071 106.3 105.7 107.6 105.3 104.7 107.9 20072 106.4 106.1 107.3 106.5 106.3 109.1 20073 106.6 106.3 107.4 107.3 107.9 109.8 20074 106.9 106.7 107.7 109.1 113.1 111.3 20081 106.8 106.6 107.2 111.1 117.2 113.0 20082 107.1 107.2 106.7 113.8 123.0 114.7 20083 107.8 108.3 105.7 115.6 125.1 115.9 20084 108.1 109.5 103.1 108.8 112.6 114.1 20091 107.6 109.2 101.8 105.2 103.7 113.8 20092 107.0 108.2 102.4 105.3 104.8 114.0 20093 106.8 108.1 102.3 105.0 105.5 114.3 20094 106.6 108.0 102.3 104.8 106.3 114.7 20101 106.5 108.0 102.3 104.6 107.1 115.2 20102 106.6 108.2 102.4 104.6 107.9 115.8 20103 106.8 108.5 102.7 104.8 108.7 116.5 20104 107.2 108.9 103.1 105.1 109.5 117.4 20111 107.7 109.4 103.6 105.5 110.3 118.4 20112 108.3 110.0 104.2 106.1 111.1 119.5 20113 109.0 110.8 104.9 106.7 112.0 120.7 20114 109.8 111.5 105.6 107.5 112.8 122.0 20121 110.6 112.4 106.5 108.3 113.6 123.4 20122 111.5 113.3 107.3 109.2 114.5 124.8 20123 112.5 114.3 108.2 110.1 115.3 126.3 20124 113.5 115.3 109.2 111.1 116.2 127.9
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment