US Forecast: January 30, 2010
Forecast Period

2010:1--2020:4 (44 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 29, 2010.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2009:4. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: January 30, 2010, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1989:4 and 2007:4 (before the stimulus measures in 2008 and 2009).

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:4-1989:4  

TRGHQ         3.0                  3.9       
COG           3.0                  2.5       
JG            1.0                 -0.7       
TRGSQ         3.0                  5.1       
TRSHQ         6.0                  5.5       
COS           1.0                  3.8       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            5.0/8.0              6.0
PIM           2.0                  1.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGHQ is real federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGSQ is real federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSHQ is real state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator.

5.0/8.0 for EX means that EX was assumed to grow at an annual rate of 5.0 percent for the first four quarters, 2010:1--2010:4, and then to grow at an annual rate of 8.0 percent after that. All tax rates for the baseline forecast were taken to remain unchanged from their 2009:4 values.

The values for COG were generated off of a base value of $517.8 billion in 2009:4. This base value is $27.6 billion lower that the actual value in 2009:4. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on COG in 2009:4. The values for TRGHQ were generated off of a base value of $1364.4 in 2009:4. This base value is $336.4 billion lower than the actual value in 2009:4. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on TRGHQ in 2009:4.

The above assumptions for state and local governments result in roughly balanced budgets over time in the forecast. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGHQ) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGSQ) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSHQ). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGHQ. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGSQ was increased and then TRSHQ increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGHQ rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGHQ. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGHQ and COG. Consistent with this treatment, in the actual data for 2009:2, $152.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. Similarly, in the actual data for 2009:3, $236.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. Finally, in the actual data for 2009:4, $240.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. These three values are my estimates of how much the stimulus bill affected THG in the three quarters.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGHQ is $336.4 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $93.6 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $10.4 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $10.0 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. (Remember that TRGHQ is in real terms, so these estimates are in 2005 dollars.) For government spending on goods (COG) I have assumed it to be $27.5 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $28.8 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $21.6 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $14.4 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. (Remember that COG is also in real terms.)

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGHQ and COG from their baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGHQ    COG

2009:4  336.4    27.6
2010:1  336.4    27.6
2010:2  336.4    27.6
2010:3  336.4    27.2
2010:4   93.6    29.2
2011:1   93.6    28.8
2011:2   93.6    28.8
2011:3   93.6    28.4
2011:4   10.4    22.0
2012:1   10.4    21.6
2012:2   10.4    21.6
2012:3   10.4    21.2
2012:4   10.0    14.4

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. (This variable is in nominal terms.) Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $270.6 billion, the value for 2009:1 is $219.3 billion, the value for 2009:2 is $129.9 billion, the value for 2009:3 is $37.3 billion, and the value for 2009:4 is $72.0 billion (all at annual rates). For the forecast all future values of CTGB were taken to be zero.

The Forecast

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing at 3.0 percent in 2010:1, 4.3 percent in 2010:2, 4.9 percent in 2010:3, and 3.3 percent in 2010:4. The growth rates generally stay above 3.5 percent through 2014 and then fall to about 3.0 percent after that. . (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) The unemployment rate falls to 8.4 percent by the end of 2010 and to 7.0 percent by the end of 2011. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs rising by 2.3 million between 2009:4 and 2010:4.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises to 2.5 percent by the end of 2010. It reaches 4.0 percent in 2013.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be essentially zero for the next two quarters and then begin rising. It is 3.2 percent at the end of 2012.

Federal Government Budget: The federal government budget deficit, variable -SGP, is predicted to be about $1.3 trillion in the next three quarters and then a little over a trillion through 2013. It then increases to $1.6 trillion at the end of 2020. (Again, all values are at annual rates.) The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $20.7 trillion at the end of 2020, which is 70.0 percent of nominal GDP (variable AGZGDP in the model). This is up from 35.4 percent in 2007:1. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, rise from $259.0 billion in 2009:4 to $1.304 trillion in 2020:4 as a result of the increasing debt and rising interest rates.

U.S. Current Account: The U.S. current account deficit, variable SR, is forecast to rise from $455.4 billion in 2009:4 to $578.5 billion in 2012:4. It rises to about $800 billion in 2017.

Comments on the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

The main message from the current forecast is that if there are no bad shocks, the economy comes out of the recession slowly but steadily. By the end of 2012 the unemployment rate is down to 6.1 percent. The assumption of no bad shocks, which is used for the forecast, means that stock prices, housing prices, and import prices grow at historically normal rates. There are no negative wealth shocks through falling stock prices and housing prices and no positive price shocks through rapidly rising import prices (due, say, to a depreciating dollar and/or rising dollar oil prices). Asset prices like stock prices, housing prices, exchange rates, and oil prices are essentially unpredictable. In a recent paper Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, I examine the forecastability of recessions and booms under the assumption that asset prices are not forecastable.

Experiments can be run using the model in which stock prices (variable CG), housing prices (variable PSI14), and import prices (variable PIM) are changed. This allows one to examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in asset prices. It may be, for example, that the growing federal government debt triggers a large depreciation of the dollar and possible fall in U.S. equity prices, and this can be analyzed by changing CG and PIM. I have done some experiments like this in another recent paper, Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits. Even though the current forecast looks encouraging for the economy, there is clearly a non trivial probability that bad shocks occur in response to the federal government debt situation. While shocks can't be predicted, the consequences of bad shocks can be analyzed.

To review, oil price shocks and exchange rate shocks are handled through changes in PIM. Housing price changes are handled through changes in PSI14. Changes in PSI14 change PKH relative to PD and thus change housing wealth, PIH*KH. This affects consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3). Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

Regarding the stimulus measures, the key variables are TRGHQ and COG. The key personal income tax rate is D1G. The bailout variable is CTGB.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2005 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 12127.7 2.8 5518.3 3.8 1888.9 3.8 1031.0 4.5 20042 12213.9 2.9 5551.7 2.4 1893.9 1.1 1038.3 2.9 20043 12303.6 3.0 5589.6 2.8 1907.8 3.0 1058.7 8.1 20044 12410.3 3.5 5650.8 4.5 1927.6 4.2 1076.1 6.7 20051 12534.1 4.1 5686.4 2.5 1949.6 4.6 1083.3 2.7 20052 12587.6 1.7 5727.9 3.0 1961.5 2.5 1113.6 11.7 20053 12683.1 3.1 5767.2 2.8 1971.8 2.1 1126.7 4.8 20054 12748.7 2.1 5798.9 2.2 1990.7 3.9 1098.4 -9.7 20061 12915.9 5.4 5841.0 2.9 2003.7 2.6 1142.3 17.0 20062 12962.4 1.4 5884.2 3.0 2011.5 1.6 1139.4 -1.0 20063 12966.0 0.1 5914.3 2.1 2024.5 2.6 1152.1 4.5 20064 13060.6 3.0 5959.4 3.1 2054.7 6.1 1167.9 5.6 20071 13100.0 1.2 6011.7 3.6 2070.3 3.1 1183.7 5.5 20072 13204.0 3.2 6036.3 1.6 2066.1 -0.8 1189.9 2.1 20073 13321.1 3.6 6055.5 1.3 2076.8 2.1 1205.0 5.2 20074 13391.3 2.1 6059.8 0.3 2086.0 1.8 1221.2 5.5 20081 13366.9 -0.7 6087.1 1.8 2070.1 -3.0 1193.2 -8.9 20082 13415.3 1.5 6092.5 0.4 2081.3 2.2 1175.7 -5.7 20083 13324.7 -2.7 6072.4 -1.3 2051.4 -5.6 1139.6 -11.7 20084 13141.9 -5.4 6080.4 0.5 2026.1 -4.8 1076.8 -20.3 20091 12925.4 -6.4 6076.1 -0.3 2035.4 1.8 1087.2 3.9 20092 12901.5 -0.7 6078.8 0.2 2025.7 -1.9 1071.7 -5.6 20093 12973.1 2.2 6090.6 0.8 2033.3 1.5 1122.8 20.5 20094 13155.1 5.7 6116.5 1.7 2054.5 4.2 1120.3 -0.9 20101 13252.1 3.0 6146.6 2.0 2064.6 2.0 1137.5 6.3 20102 13391.8 4.3 6179.0 2.1 2075.0 2.0 1159.3 7.9 20103 13551.9 4.9 6213.7 2.3 2087.3 2.4 1184.9 9.1 20104 13664.0 3.3 6240.4 1.7 2097.0 1.9 1194.9 3.4 20111 13773.2 3.2 6268.6 1.8 2107.5 2.0 1210.0 5.1 20112 13895.1 3.6 6298.5 1.9 2118.8 2.2 1228.8 6.3 20113 14031.6 4.0 6329.9 2.0 2130.9 2.3 1250.0 7.1 20114 14151.1 3.5 6359.6 1.9 2142.2 2.1 1266.7 5.4 20121 14272.6 3.5 6389.7 1.9 2153.7 2.2 1286.2 6.3 20122 14401.6 3.7 6421.3 2.0 2165.7 2.2 1307.4 6.7 20123 14536.7 3.8 6456.4 2.2 2177.8 2.3 1328.2 6.5 20124 14668.9 3.7 6497.8 2.6 2189.9 2.2 1346.6 5.7 20131 14788.8 3.3 6543.7 2.9 2201.8 2.2 1362.5 4.8 20132 14917.0 3.5 6593.2 3.1 2213.6 2.2 1377.4 4.5 20133 15050.5 3.6 6645.2 3.2 2225.4 2.2 1392.0 4.3 20134 15185.3 3.6 6699.7 3.3 2237.4 2.2 1406.2 4.1 20141 15318.7 3.6 6755.0 3.3 2249.6 2.2 1421.0 4.3 20142 15449.8 3.5 6811.0 3.4 2261.9 2.2 1436.3 4.4 20143 15578.5 3.4 6868.3 3.4 2274.4 2.2 1451.7 4.4 20144 15705.2 3.3 6928.0 3.5 2286.9 2.2 1466.2 4.1 20151 15829.5 3.2 6987.6 3.5 2299.6 2.2 1481.5 4.2 20152 15951.4 3.1 7047.4 3.5 2312.5 2.3 1497.3 4.3 20153 16071.3 3.0 7108.3 3.5 2325.5 2.3 1512.9 4.2 20154 16190.1 3.0 7171.7 3.6 2338.6 2.3 1527.2 3.9 20161 16307.6 2.9 7234.8 3.6 2352.0 2.3 1542.4 4.0 20162 16423.8 2.9 7297.8 3.5 2365.6 2.3 1558.3 4.2 20163 16539.4 2.8 7361.7 3.6 2379.4 2.4 1574.1 4.1 20164 16655.4 2.8 7428.6 3.7 2393.4 2.4 1588.7 3.8 20171 16771.7 2.8 7495.2 3.6 2407.7 2.4 1604.3 4.0 20172 16888.3 2.8 7562.5 3.6 2422.3 2.4 1620.2 4.0 20173 17005.9 2.8 7631.5 3.7 2437.1 2.5 1635.9 3.9 20174 17125.2 2.8 7704.1 3.9 2452.0 2.5 1650.1 3.5 20181 17245.8 2.8 7776.4 3.8 2467.2 2.5 1665.3 3.7 20182 17367.5 2.9 7849.5 3.8 2482.5 2.5 1681.0 3.8 20183 17491.0 2.9 7924.7 3.9 2498.1 2.5 1696.1 3.7 20184 17617.7 2.9 8004.8 4.1 2513.7 2.5 1709.3 3.1 20191 17746.5 3.0 8084.5 4.0 2529.5 2.5 1723.8 3.4 20192 17877.2 3.0 8164.3 4.0 2545.5 2.6 1739.1 3.6 20193 18010.1 3.0 8245.9 4.1 2561.7 2.6 1754.3 3.5 20194 18147.0 3.1 8333.0 4.3 2578.0 2.6 1767.4 3.0 20201 18286.5 3.1 8419.3 4.2 2594.4 2.6 1782.0 3.4 20202 18428.2 3.1 8506.2 4.2 2611.0 2.6 1797.4 3.5 20203 18572.8 3.2 8595.7 4.3 2627.7 2.6 1812.2 3.3 20204 18722.3 3.3 8692.2 4.6 2644.3 2.5 1824.3 2.7
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 625.3 13.6 970.2 -6.8 52.4 1829.8 10.6 20042 644.9 13.1 996.4 11.2 78.7 1903.1 17.0 20043 647.9 1.9 1023.6 11.4 62.7 1930.7 5.9 20044 654.4 4.1 1046.1 9.1 71.6 1979.7 10.5 20051 670.8 10.4 1078.2 12.8 91.4 1991.0 2.3 20052 685.9 9.3 1093.9 6.0 15.5 2012.9 4.5 20053 690.7 2.9 1109.4 5.8 11.8 2025.2 2.5 20054 690.4 -0.2 1114.8 2.0 81.0 2082.0 11.7 20061 685.3 -3.0 1177.8 24.6 65.8 2121.3 7.8 20062 653.3 -17.4 1197.9 7.0 72.5 2144.9 4.5 20063 621.8 -17.9 1210.5 4.3 67.5 2170.6 4.9 20064 580.0 -24.3 1217.2 2.2 31.8 2168.1 -0.5 20071 550.0 -19.2 1221.6 1.5 14.5 2190.9 4.3 20072 526.9 -15.8 1254.6 11.2 23.3 2188.1 -0.5 20073 452.3 -45.7 1283.3 9.5 29.8 2208.4 3.8 20074 452.6 0.2 1304.0 6.6 10.3 2188.0 -3.6 20081 407.3 -34.4 1318.6 4.6 0.6 2174.3 -2.5 20082 390.4 -15.6 1322.8 1.3 -37.1 2146.5 -5.0 20083 372.9 -16.7 1301.9 -6.2 -29.7 2134.4 -2.2 20084 346.3 -25.6 1233.0 -19.6 -37.4 2038.9 -16.7 20091 309.1 -36.6 1089.1 -39.1 -113.9 1821.0 -36.4 20092 287.3 -25.3 1062.2 -9.5 -160.2 1749.8 -14.7 20093 299.9 18.7 1045.4 -6.2 -139.2 1836.3 21.3 20094 304.1 5.7 1052.9 2.9 -33.5 1882.7 10.5 20101 331.6 41.4 1031.9 -7.8 -9.3 1904.1 4.6 20102 367.9 51.5 1039.3 2.9 16.5 1929.1 5.4 20103 412.3 57.7 1068.3 11.7 31.8 1960.7 6.7 20104 427.7 15.9 1092.1 9.2 56.5 1992.3 6.6 20111 452.1 24.8 1116.3 9.2 53.9 2025.5 6.8 20112 481.4 28.6 1147.9 11.8 47.6 2061.9 7.4 20113 513.5 29.4 1184.8 13.5 46.5 2102.2 8.0 20114 535.2 18.0 1219.7 12.3 55.0 2144.0 8.2 20121 559.0 19.0 1257.2 12.9 52.3 2187.8 8.4 20122 583.5 18.7 1299.2 14.0 50.1 2234.3 8.8 20123 607.8 17.7 1343.7 14.4 50.6 2283.6 9.1 20124 631.0 16.2 1388.4 14.0 53.8 2335.5 9.4 20131 651.1 13.4 1431.1 12.9 56.7 2389.5 9.6 20132 669.8 12.0 1475.9 13.1 51.7 2445.5 9.7 20133 687.1 10.7 1521.8 13.0 51.1 2503.4 9.8 20134 703.0 9.6 1567.0 12.4 52.6 2563.1 9.9 20141 717.6 8.6 1611.2 11.8 54.1 2624.3 9.9 20142 730.9 7.6 1654.2 11.1 54.6 2686.6 9.8 20143 743.0 6.8 1695.5 10.4 54.5 2749.9 9.8 20144 753.9 6.0 1734.7 9.6 53.8 2813.8 9.6 20151 763.7 5.3 1771.1 8.7 53.0 2878.2 9.5 20152 772.6 4.7 1804.7 7.8 52.0 2942.5 9.3 20153 780.6 4.2 1835.2 6.9 50.9 3006.7 9.0 20154 787.9 3.8 1862.6 6.1 49.7 3070.6 8.8 20161 794.6 3.4 1886.9 5.3 48.8 3133.9 8.5 20162 800.7 3.1 1907.9 4.5 48.0 3196.5 8.2 20163 806.4 2.9 1925.8 3.8 47.1 3258.4 8.0 20164 811.8 2.7 1940.8 3.2 46.3 3319.5 7.7 20171 816.9 2.6 1953.1 2.5 45.9 3379.9 7.5 20172 821.9 2.5 1962.7 2.0 45.7 3439.5 7.2 20173 826.7 2.4 1969.9 1.5 45.5 3498.6 7.0 20174 831.5 2.3 1975.3 1.1 45.3 3557.2 6.9 20181 836.3 2.3 1978.8 0.7 45.6 3615.4 6.7 20182 841.2 2.3 1980.6 0.4 45.9 3673.4 6.6 20183 846.1 2.4 1981.3 0.1 46.1 3731.3 6.5 20184 851.1 2.4 1981.5 0.0 46.3 3789.5 6.4 20191 856.2 2.4 1981.0 -0.1 47.1 3848.1 6.3 20192 861.4 2.5 1980.2 -0.2 47.9 3907.2 6.3 20193 866.9 2.5 1979.5 -0.2 48.5 3967.0 6.3 20194 872.4 2.6 1979.4 0.0 48.9 4028.1 6.3 20201 878.2 2.7 1980.0 0.1 50.0 4090.4 6.3 20202 884.2 2.8 1981.3 0.3 51.1 4154.2 6.4 20203 890.4 2.8 1983.8 0.5 51.9 4219.7 6.5 20204 896.8 2.9 1988.0 0.9 52.4 4287.5 6.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.5 2.5 1.5 -1.0 20042 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.5 20043 2.9 3.7 5.8 1.9 20044 3.0 2.9 3.5 0.6 20051 3.8 3.3 -0.6 -3.8 20052 2.7 2.7 3.0 0.2 20053 4.2 4.6 7.2 2.5 20054 3.4 3.4 1.1 -2.2 20061 3.0 2.6 8.1 5.4 20062 3.6 3.9 1.3 -2.5 20063 3.1 2.6 1.7 -0.8 20064 1.8 1.3 6.9 5.5 20071 4.3 3.4 4.1 0.7 20072 2.7 2.7 0.8 -1.8 20073 1.7 1.5 3.7 2.1 20074 2.4 2.0 4.4 2.4 20081 2.0 1.7 2.6 1.0 20082 1.8 2.4 1.9 -0.5 20083 4.1 4.5 6.0 1.4 20084 0.0 0.6 6.4 5.7 20091 1.9 2.4 -6.2 -8.4 20092 0.0 -0.2 5.3 5.6 20093 0.4 0.6 5.2 4.5 20094 0.6 -0.1 1.7 1.8 20101 1.0 0.7 3.7 3.0 20102 1.4 1.2 4.1 2.9 20103 1.9 1.7 4.5 2.7 20104 2.5 2.2 4.9 2.6 20111 2.7 2.6 5.2 2.5 20112 3.0 2.9 5.4 2.4 20113 3.3 3.2 5.6 2.3 20114 3.5 3.4 5.8 2.3 20121 3.6 3.6 5.9 2.2 20122 3.8 3.7 5.9 2.2 20123 3.9 3.8 6.0 2.1 20124 3.9 3.9 6.0 2.1 20131 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.1 20132 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.1 20133 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 20134 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 20141 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 20142 4.0 3.8 5.9 2.0 20143 3.9 3.8 5.9 2.0 20144 3.9 3.8 5.8 2.0 20151 3.9 3.7 5.8 2.0 20152 3.8 3.7 5.7 2.0 20153 3.8 3.6 5.7 2.0 20154 3.7 3.5 5.6 2.0 20161 3.6 3.5 5.5 2.0 20162 3.6 3.4 5.5 2.0 20163 3.5 3.4 5.4 2.0 20164 3.5 3.3 5.4 2.0 20171 3.4 3.2 5.3 2.0 20172 3.4 3.2 5.3 2.0 20173 3.3 3.1 5.2 2.0 20174 3.3 3.1 5.2 2.0 20181 3.2 3.1 5.2 2.0 20182 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20183 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20184 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20191 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20192 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20193 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20194 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20201 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20202 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20203 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20204 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1487.9 6.1 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1501.9 3.8 78.2 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.7 6.8 73.7 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.5 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1545.8 -2.3 74.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1551.8 1.6 73.4 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1548.4 -0.9 70.2 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 1.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1567.1 3.5 68.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1561.2 -1.5 68.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1542.7 -4.7 65.7 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1556.4 4.5 67.3 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1537.8 -4.7 66.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1521.8 -4.1 73.4 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1549.6 7.5 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1549.0 -0.2 -34.3 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1560.1 2.9 -89.9 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1685.4 36.2 78.2 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1808.1 32.5 369.1 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1769.2 -8.3 302.8 20092 0.2 5.5 5.0 1843.3 17.8 376.8 20093 0.2 5.3 5.2 1901.3 13.2 686.5 20094 0.1 5.2 4.9 1937.3 7.8 600.0 20101 0.1 5.0 4.7 1950.7 2.8 433.0 20102 0.4 4.9 4.6 1964.2 2.8 317.0 20103 0.7 4.8 4.6 1977.9 2.8 200.0 20104 1.1 4.7 4.6 1992.2 2.9 80.0 20111 1.4 4.7 4.7 2006.7 2.9 80.0 20112 1.7 4.7 4.7 2021.7 3.0 80.0 20113 2.0 4.7 4.8 2037.3 3.1 80.0 20114 2.3 4.7 5.0 2053.5 3.2 80.0 20121 2.5 4.8 5.1 2070.2 3.3 80.0 20122 2.7 4.9 5.3 2087.5 3.4 80.0 20123 3.0 4.9 5.4 2105.4 3.5 80.0 20124 3.2 5.0 5.6 2124.0 3.6 80.0 20131 3.3 5.1 5.7 2143.3 3.7 80.0 20132 3.5 5.2 5.9 2163.1 3.8 80.0 20133 3.6 5.3 6.0 2183.6 3.8 80.0 20134 3.8 5.4 6.1 2204.7 3.9 80.0 20141 3.9 5.5 6.3 2226.3 4.0 80.0 20142 4.0 5.6 6.4 2248.6 4.1 80.0 20143 4.1 5.7 6.5 2271.4 4.1 80.0 20144 4.2 5.8 6.6 2294.7 4.2 80.0 20151 4.3 5.9 6.8 2318.6 4.2 80.0 20152 4.3 5.9 6.8 2343.1 4.3 80.0 20153 4.3 6.0 6.9 2368.0 4.3 80.0 20154 4.4 6.1 7.0 2393.5 4.4 80.0 20161 4.4 6.1 7.1 2419.5 4.4 80.0 20162 4.4 6.2 7.1 2445.9 4.4 80.0 20163 4.4 6.2 7.2 2472.8 4.5 80.0 20164 4.4 6.3 7.2 2500.2 4.5 80.0 20171 4.4 6.3 7.2 2528.0 4.5 80.0 20172 4.3 6.3 7.2 2556.2 4.5 80.0 20173 4.3 6.4 7.3 2584.9 4.6 80.0 20174 4.3 6.4 7.3 2614.0 4.6 80.0 20181 4.3 6.4 7.3 2643.5 4.6 80.0 20182 4.3 6.4 7.3 2673.5 4.6 80.0 20183 4.3 6.4 7.3 2703.8 4.6 80.0 20184 4.2 6.4 7.3 2734.7 4.6 80.0 20191 4.2 6.4 7.3 2765.9 4.6 80.0 20192 4.2 6.4 7.3 2797.6 4.7 80.0 20193 4.3 6.5 7.3 2829.7 4.7 80.0 20194 4.3 6.5 7.3 2862.3 4.7 80.0 20201 4.3 6.5 7.3 2895.3 4.7 80.0 20202 4.3 6.5 7.3 2928.7 4.7 80.0 20203 4.3 6.5 7.4 2962.7 4.7 80.0 20204 4.4 6.5 7.4 2997.1 4.7 80.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.0 0.1 5.3 0.9 1.8 8.3 20042 5.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.9 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 1.2 -0.2 2.6 2.0 1.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.2 0.0 4.3 1.5 1.4 8.0 20051 5.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.1 7.8 20052 5.1 0.9 0.7 5.5 2.0 3.0 7.6 20053 4.9 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.3 2.1 7.4 20054 4.9 -0.6 0.7 2.6 1.5 0.9 7.4 20061 4.7 2.1 1.1 1.6 3.0 2.6 7.1 20062 4.6 0.2 0.2 4.3 1.5 1.8 7.0 20063 4.6 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.8 1.3 7.0 20064 4.4 1.8 0.2 4.2 1.6 2.8 6.8 20071 4.5 3.1 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 6.9 20072 4.5 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 -0.7 6.9 20073 4.7 -0.7 1.5 2.0 -0.7 0.1 7.1 20074 4.8 0.9 0.4 2.8 1.2 0.7 7.4 20081 5.0 -0.6 0.2 2.8 -0.9 0.2 7.6 20082 5.3 -1.0 1.6 2.5 -1.2 -0.6 8.2 20083 6.0 1.2 -0.5 1.9 -2.0 -2.1 9.3 20084 6.9 -1.5 0.5 1.9 -5.4 -3.5 10.7 20091 8.2 -3.5 -1.1 1.7 -6.2 -6.3 12.6 20092 9.3 2.1 0.6 1.7 -4.9 -3.1 14.4 20093 9.7 0.7 -2.2 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 14.9 20094 10.0 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.0 -3.4 15.4 20101 9.8 -0.1 0.9 0.3 0.4 1.3 15.1 20102 9.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.7 2.2 14.5 20103 8.9 0.0 0.8 0.9 2.6 2.8 13.7 20104 8.4 0.0 0.8 1.3 2.8 2.8 13.0 20111 8.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.8 2.6 12.4 20112 7.6 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.5 11.8 20113 7.3 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.9 2.5 11.3 20114 7.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.7 2.3 10.9 20121 6.7 0.2 0.8 2.4 2.6 2.2 10.5 20122 6.5 0.2 0.8 2.5 2.6 2.1 10.2 20123 6.3 0.2 0.8 2.6 2.5 2.1 9.9 20124 6.1 0.2 0.8 2.7 2.5 2.0 9.6 20131 6.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 9.5 20132 5.9 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.2 1.8 9.3 20133 5.8 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 9.2 20134 5.7 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 9.0 20141 5.6 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 8.9 20142 5.5 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.0 1.6 8.8 20143 5.4 0.1 0.8 3.0 1.9 1.6 8.8 20144 5.4 0.1 0.8 3.0 1.9 1.5 8.7 20151 5.4 0.1 0.8 3.0 1.8 1.4 8.7 20152 5.3 0.1 0.7 3.0 1.7 1.4 8.7 20153 5.3 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.6 1.3 8.7 20154 5.3 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.5 1.3 8.7 20161 5.3 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.4 1.2 8.8 20162 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.3 1.2 8.8 20163 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.3 1.1 8.9 20164 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.2 1.1 9.0 20171 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.2 1.1 9.0 20172 5.5 -0.1 0.7 2.7 1.1 1.0 9.1 20173 5.5 -0.1 0.7 2.7 1.1 1.0 9.2 20174 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.6 1.1 1.0 9.2 20181 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.6 1.1 1.0 9.3 20182 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.6 1.1 1.0 9.3 20183 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.5 1.1 1.0 9.4 20184 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.5 1.1 1.0 9.4 20191 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 9.4 20192 5.5 -0.1 0.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 9.4 20193 5.5 -0.1 0.5 2.5 1.1 1.1 9.4 20194 5.5 -0.1 0.5 2.5 1.2 1.1 9.4 20201 5.5 -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.2 1.1 9.4 20202 5.4 -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.3 1.2 9.3 20203 5.4 -0.1 0.5 2.5 1.3 1.2 9.3 20204 5.3 -0.1 0.5 2.5 1.3 1.2 9.2
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2645.6 791.3 94.6 3.2 1.1 540.6 -409.5 -22.8 20042 874.1 858.0 38.3 3.7 3.4 618.8 -384.5 -20.9 20043 -190.5 916.9 30.4 3.4 3.7 636.8 -361.5 -3.6 20044 8184.3 902.1 -6.3 3.6 -1.2 719.7 -362.3 13.7 20051 1075.7 1133.1 148.9 1.6 1.8 699.0 -289.0 25.1 20052 3128.4 1177.1 16.5 1.3 1.2 708.6 -288.3 18.9 20053 5471.0 1175.3 -0.6 1.2 6.4 739.4 -287.5 25.4 20054 3904.7 1300.5 49.9 1.5 -1.8 833.7 -267.5 34.5 20061 7211.9 1348.9 15.7 2.2 -0.5 794.3 -207.2 62.4 20062 -1586.0 1352.1 0.9 2.5 0.9 815.6 -229.5 63.2 20063 3213.9 1430.5 25.3 2.3 -0.9 858.0 -215.6 42.3 20064 7460.5 1368.1 -16.3 2.6 1.3 744.3 -162.9 35.9 20071 3382.8 1363.3 -1.4 2.1 3.2 804.2 -201.1 32.8 20072 5560.0 1402.1 11.9 1.8 2.6 767.3 -221.2 35.1 20073 972.2 1380.1 -6.1 1.6 6.5 689.6 -258.9 20.3 20074 -3624.5 1480.6 32.4 1.5 4.1 656.7 -265.0 -1.3 20081 -8107.8 1272.8 -45.4 1.2 -2.6 722.5 -433.6 -20.2 20082 -3732.8 1262.5 -3.2 3.5 4.1 758.4 -797.1 -25.5 20083 -9830.6 1279.3 5.4 2.2 1.9 742.1 -665.9 -59.2 20084 -16906.0 929.9 -72.1 3.9 5.6 626.0 -674.1 -56.1 20091 -6331.5 992.8 29.9 3.8 -3.4 414.7 -969.1 -36.6 20092 7429.3 1056.3 28.1 5.6 4.5 394.6 -1268.8 -24.6 20093 8300.7 1132.6 32.2 4.6 4.5 430.5 -1326.9 -14.8 20094 2320.0 1216.4 33.1 4.8 7.3 455.4 -1313.6 -14.3 20101 1325.4 1181.4 -11.0 5.2 1.4 466.6 -1337.4 -10.3 20102 1741.8 1187.8 2.2 5.6 1.6 479.9 -1346.3 -2.3 20103 1711.4 1199.8 4.1 6.1 1.3 498.3 -1350.4 8.2 20104 1283.4 1177.9 -7.1 4.5 0.0 514.5 -1094.3 14.4 20111 1248.9 1154.1 -7.8 5.1 0.0 518.0 -1103.0 19.5 20112 1377.3 1144.0 -3.4 5.6 0.5 522.9 -1110.5 24.7 20113 1502.5 1148.5 1.6 6.0 0.9 530.3 -1115.2 30.3 20114 1390.7 1144.4 -1.4 5.7 0.6 537.4 -1020.8 33.9 20121 1440.1 1144.5 0.0 6.2 0.9 545.2 -1028.9 36.8 20122 1537.7 1153.0 3.0 6.6 1.2 554.6 -1036.8 39.8 20123 1607.6 1167.9 5.3 6.9 1.4 565.7 -1043.7 43.0 20124 1596.5 1181.5 4.7 7.2 1.4 578.5 -1043.8 46.1 20131 1520.9 1186.4 1.7 7.4 1.2 592.4 -1026.8 48.4 20132 1640.8 1199.8 4.6 7.6 1.5 607.6 -1037.9 50.8 20133 1714.0 1218.2 6.3 7.8 1.7 623.9 -1048.4 53.5 20134 1738.1 1237.1 6.4 8.0 1.7 641.1 -1059.3 56.3 20141 1739.4 1254.0 5.6 8.2 1.7 658.9 -1071.2 58.9 20142 1741.3 1268.4 4.6 8.4 1.7 677.0 -1084.4 61.3 20143 1747.8 1280.2 3.8 8.5 1.7 695.2 -1098.9 63.5 20144 1764.3 1290.3 3.2 8.7 1.7 713.1 -1114.6 65.5 20151 1778.8 1298.2 2.5 8.8 1.7 730.4 -1131.7 67.1 20152 1797.4 1304.0 1.8 8.9 1.7 746.8 -1150.1 68.3 20153 1824.8 1308.2 1.3 9.0 1.8 761.8 -1169.8 69.2 20154 1863.7 1311.8 1.1 9.1 1.8 775.5 -1190.4 69.9 20161 1897.4 1314.3 0.8 9.1 1.8 787.4 -1212.0 70.3 20162 1933.4 1315.7 0.4 9.2 1.8 797.4 -1234.4 70.4 20163 1977.2 1316.7 0.3 9.3 1.9 805.2 -1257.5 70.3 20164 2034.0 1318.7 0.6 9.3 1.9 811.0 -1281.0 70.3 20171 2082.7 1320.8 0.6 9.3 1.9 814.6 -1304.7 70.2 20172 2133.9 1323.3 0.8 9.3 1.9 815.9 -1328.6 70.0 20173 2191.5 1327.0 1.1 9.3 2.0 815.0 -1352.5 70.0 20174 2260.0 1332.9 1.8 9.3 2.0 812.1 -1375.9 70.2 20181 2315.3 1340.0 2.1 9.3 2.0 807.0 -1399.1 70.5 20182 2371.5 1348.3 2.5 9.3 2.0 799.9 -1422.0 70.8 20183 2436.5 1358.9 3.2 9.3 2.0 790.9 -1444.3 71.4 20184 2517.5 1373.2 4.3 9.3 2.0 780.4 -1465.6 72.7 20191 2577.9 1389.6 4.9 9.2 2.0 768.3 -1486.1 74.0 20192 2634.6 1407.9 5.4 9.2 2.0 754.7 -1505.8 75.6 20193 2699.9 1428.7 6.1 9.1 2.0 739.9 -1524.7 77.5 20194 2784.8 1454.1 7.3 9.1 2.1 724.3 -1542.1 80.1 20201 2844.3 1482.0 7.9 9.0 2.1 707.8 -1558.4 83.0 20202 2900.9 1512.0 8.3 9.0 2.0 690.7 -1573.7 86.1 20203 2967.5 1545.0 9.0 8.9 2.0 673.1 -1587.8 89.7 20204 3057.8 1583.4 10.3 8.8 2.1 655.8 -1600.1 94.3
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 8.9 -0.9 9.8 987.4 8.4 9.1 20042 5.0 1.1 6.4 995.9 3.5 5.7 20043 12.9 -5.7 3.0 1004.8 3.6 4.2 20044 -11.8 -4.7 9.4 1017.2 5.0 10.0 20051 2.8 -2.5 7.6 1045.7 11.7 3.5 20052 1.9 0.6 8.8 1055.0 3.6 5.7 20053 20.6 -1.5 0.1 1069.4 5.6 8.5 20054 -13.9 3.9 10.4 1082.2 4.9 8.1 20061 28.4 -2.5 16.5 1138.5 22.5 1.6 20062 -6.6 6.0 6.9 1161.7 8.4 4.3 20063 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 1170.2 3.0 3.1 20064 2.1 -0.4 17.8 1183.8 4.7 -4.6 20071 -9.0 5.7 3.5 1209.1 8.8 3.2 20072 15.6 3.7 5.2 1228.2 6.5 6.3 20073 14.6 1.0 18.5 1245.0 5.6 6.1 20074 3.5 -0.3 14.5 1259.9 4.9 20.4 20081 11.6 -5.5 -0.1 1294.4 11.4 15.4 20082 11.0 1.3 12.1 1630.7 151.9 21.3 20083 19.5 -1.9 -3.6 1419.9 -42.5 7.1 20084 6.9 -6.1 -19.4 1387.9 -8.7 -34.3 20091 -11.7 -4.0 -29.9 1469.9 25.8 -28.2 20092 14.4 11.8 -4.1 1763.0 106.9 4.2 20093 8.9 1.4 17.8 1841.4 19.0 11.4 20094 -4.1 -1.4 18.1 1869.9 6.3 16.3 20101 2.8 1.5 5.0 1885.9 3.5 2.0 20102 2.8 1.5 5.0 1904.0 3.9 2.0 20103 2.6 1.5 5.0 1924.3 4.3 2.0 20104 4.3 1.5 5.0 1676.3 -42.4 2.0 20111 2.6 1.5 8.0 1699.4 5.6 2.0 20112 2.8 1.5 8.0 1723.9 5.9 2.0 20113 2.6 1.5 8.0 1749.9 6.2 2.0 20114 -1.6 1.5 8.0 1681.5 -14.7 2.0 20121 2.6 1.5 8.0 1709.1 6.7 2.0 20122 2.9 1.5 8.0 1737.6 6.8 2.0 20123 2.6 1.5 8.0 1767.0 6.9 2.0 20124 -1.8 1.5 8.0 1796.9 6.9 2.0 20131 -6.9 1.5 8.0 1815.8 4.3 2.0 20132 3.0 1.5 8.0 1847.3 7.1 2.0 20133 3.0 1.5 8.0 1879.3 7.1 2.0 20134 3.0 1.5 8.0 1912.0 7.1 2.0 20141 3.0 1.5 8.0 1945.1 7.1 2.0 20142 3.0 1.5 8.0 1978.7 7.1 2.0 20143 3.0 1.5 8.0 2012.8 7.1 2.0 20144 3.0 1.5 8.0 2047.3 7.0 2.0 20151 3.0 1.5 8.0 2082.1 7.0 2.0 20152 3.0 1.5 8.0 2117.3 6.9 2.0 20153 3.0 1.5 8.0 2152.7 6.9 2.0 20154 3.0 1.5 8.0 2188.5 6.8 2.0 20161 3.0 1.5 8.0 2224.5 6.7 2.0 20162 3.0 1.5 8.0 2260.8 6.7 2.0 20163 3.0 1.5 8.0 2297.3 6.6 2.0 20164 3.0 1.5 8.0 2334.1 6.6 2.0 20171 3.0 1.5 8.0 2371.2 6.5 2.0 20172 3.0 1.5 8.0 2408.5 6.5 2.0 20173 3.0 1.5 8.0 2446.2 6.4 2.0 20174 3.0 1.5 8.0 2484.3 6.4 2.0 20181 3.0 1.5 8.0 2522.7 6.3 2.0 20182 3.0 1.5 8.0 2561.5 6.3 2.0 20183 3.0 1.5 8.0 2600.8 6.3 2.0 20184 3.0 1.5 8.0 2640.7 6.3 2.0 20191 3.0 1.5 8.0 2681.0 6.3 2.0 20192 3.0 1.5 8.0 2721.9 6.2 2.0 20193 3.0 1.5 8.0 2763.4 6.2 2.0 20194 3.0 1.5 8.0 2805.7 6.3 2.0 20201 3.0 1.5 8.0 2848.5 6.3 2.0 20202 3.0 1.5 8.0 2892.1 6.3 2.0 20203 3.0 1.5 8.0 2936.5 6.3 2.0 20204 3.0 1.5 8.0 2981.8 6.3 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2203.4 900.3 192.0 91.8 953.0 20092 2339.4 981.9 223.8 97.8 954.3 20093 2399.4 1047.0 238.1 98.6 957.1 20094 2425.3 1044.7 251.6 103.3 961.3 20101 2459.1 1068.0 246.5 104.2 975.4 20102 2509.9 1096.7 248.2 105.2 994.1 20103 2569.9 1129.8 250.8 106.5 1016.3 20104 2624.1 1162.4 248.0 107.6 1038.6 20111 2678.6 1195.0 245.1 108.8 1061.3 20112 2737.7 1228.8 244.3 110.2 1084.9 20113 2802.1 1264.3 246.0 111.8 1109.5 20114 2864.8 1299.5 246.3 113.3 1134.0 20121 2928.9 1335.1 247.4 114.9 1158.7 20122 2995.7 1371.6 249.8 116.6 1183.7 20123 3065.2 1409.0 253.3 118.4 1209.2 20124 3135.4 1446.9 256.6 120.3 1234.9 20131 3203.4 1484.5 258.5 122.2 1260.2 20132 3273.8 1522.7 261.8 124.2 1285.8 20133 3346.4 1561.8 266.0 126.3 1311.7 20134 3420.3 1601.7 270.3 128.4 1337.9 20141 3494.7 1642.2 274.2 130.5 1364.3 20142 3569.3 1683.2 277.8 132.7 1390.8 20143 3644.0 1724.5 281.0 134.9 1417.2 20144 3718.7 1766.2 283.9 137.1 1443.6 20151 3793.3 1808.2 286.4 139.4 1469.9 20152 3867.7 1850.4 288.7 141.7 1496.1 20153 3942.0 1892.7 290.7 144.0 1522.2 20154 4016.3 1935.3 292.6 146.3 1548.2 20161 4090.6 1978.1 294.3 148.7 1574.0 20162 4164.9 2021.1 295.9 151.0 1599.8 20163 4239.5 2064.4 297.4 153.4 1625.6 20164 4314.6 2108.0 299.1 155.8 1651.3 20171 4390.2 2152.1 300.8 158.3 1677.2 20172 4466.6 2196.6 302.7 160.8 1703.2 20173 4543.9 2241.7 304.6 163.3 1729.3 20174 4622.6 2287.3 307.0 165.8 1755.8 20181 4702.5 2333.7 309.6 168.4 1782.5 20182 4783.8 2380.8 312.4 171.0 1809.5 20183 4866.6 2428.8 315.5 173.7 1837.0 20184 4951.7 2477.6 319.3 176.4 1864.9 20191 5038.8 2527.6 323.5 179.2 1893.5 20192 5127.9 2578.6 327.9 182.0 1922.5 20193 5219.3 2630.7 332.8 184.9 1952.2 20194 5313.5 2684.2 338.5 187.9 1982.5 20201 5410.4 2739.0 344.6 190.9 2013.6 20202 5509.9 2795.3 351.0 193.9 2045.5 20203 5612.2 2853.0 358.0 197.1 2078.1 20204 5718.2 2912.3 365.9 200.3 2111.6
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2314.1 706.4 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3172.5 954.2 1469.9 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -969.1 20092 3608.2 979.1 1763.0 55.5 497.9 253.7 59.0 -1268.8 20093 3726.3 1001.2 1841.4 59.0 483.7 271.0 70.0 -1326.9 20094 3738.9 1012.8 1869.9 46.4 487.2 259.0 63.6 -1313.6 20101 3796.5 1022.8 1885.9 46.9 492.1 284.6 64.2 -1337.4 20102 3856.2 1034.0 1904.0 47.4 497.5 308.5 64.9 -1346.3 20103 3920.3 1045.9 1924.3 48.0 503.5 332.9 65.7 -1350.4 20104 3718.4 1061.5 1676.3 48.6 510.4 355.0 66.6 -1094.3 20111 3781.7 1075.4 1699.4 49.3 517.7 372.3 67.6 -1103.0 20112 3848.2 1090.6 1723.9 50.0 525.4 389.7 68.6 -1110.5 20113 3917.3 1106.1 1749.9 50.8 533.6 407.3 69.7 -1115.2 20114 3885.6 1115.4 1681.5 51.6 542.2 424.0 70.8 -1020.8 20121 3957.8 1132.0 1709.1 52.5 551.2 441.0 72.0 -1028.9 20122 4032.5 1149.6 1737.6 53.4 560.4 458.4 73.2 -1036.8 20123 4108.9 1167.2 1767.0 54.3 569.9 476.1 74.4 -1043.7 20124 4179.2 1177.5 1796.9 55.2 579.7 494.2 75.7 -1043.8 20131 4230.2 1179.0 1815.8 56.2 589.8 512.4 77.0 -1026.8 20132 4311.7 1197.7 1847.3 57.1 600.0 531.2 78.3 -1037.9 20133 4394.9 1216.8 1879.3 58.1 610.4 550.5 79.7 -1048.4 20134 4479.6 1236.0 1912.0 59.1 621.0 570.4 81.1 -1059.3 20141 4565.9 1255.5 1945.1 60.2 631.8 590.9 82.5 -1071.2 20142 4653.7 1275.3 1978.7 61.2 642.7 611.9 83.9 -1084.4 20143 4742.8 1295.2 2012.8 62.3 653.7 633.5 85.3 -1098.9 20144 4833.3 1315.3 2047.3 63.3 664.9 655.7 86.8 -1114.6 20151 4925.0 1335.5 2082.1 64.4 676.3 678.4 88.3 -1131.7 20152 5017.8 1355.9 2117.3 65.5 687.7 701.7 89.8 -1150.1 20153 5111.7 1376.4 2152.7 66.6 699.2 725.6 91.3 -1169.8 20154 5206.7 1397.0 2188.5 67.7 710.8 749.9 92.8 -1190.4 20161 5302.6 1417.7 2224.5 68.8 722.5 774.7 94.3 -1212.0 20162 5399.3 1438.5 2260.8 69.9 734.3 800.0 95.9 -1234.4 20163 5497.0 1459.4 2297.3 71.1 746.1 825.7 97.4 -1257.5 20164 5595.6 1480.5 2334.1 72.2 758.1 851.7 99.0 -1281.0 20171 5695.0 1501.6 2371.2 73.3 770.1 878.1 100.5 -1304.7 20172 5795.2 1522.9 2408.5 74.5 782.3 904.9 102.1 -1328.6 20173 5896.4 1544.4 2446.2 75.7 794.5 931.9 103.7 -1352.5 20174 5998.5 1566.0 2484.3 76.8 806.9 959.2 105.3 -1375.9 20181 6101.6 1587.8 2522.7 78.0 819.4 986.8 107.0 -1399.1 20182 6205.7 1609.8 2561.5 79.2 832.0 1014.6 108.6 -1422.0 20183 6310.9 1632.0 2600.8 80.5 844.7 1042.6 110.3 -1444.3 20184 6417.4 1654.5 2640.7 81.7 857.7 1070.8 112.0 -1465.6 20191 6524.9 1677.3 2681.0 82.9 870.8 1099.3 113.7 -1486.1 20192 6633.8 1700.3 2721.9 84.2 884.1 1127.9 115.4 -1505.8 20193 6744.0 1723.6 2763.4 85.5 897.5 1156.7 117.2 -1524.7 20194 6855.7 1747.3 2805.7 86.8 911.2 1185.7 119.0 -1542.1 20201 6968.8 1771.3 2848.5 88.1 925.2 1214.9 120.8 -1558.4 20202 7083.6 1795.7 2892.1 89.5 939.3 1244.3 122.6 -1573.7 20203 7200.0 1820.5 2936.5 90.8 953.7 1273.9 124.5 -1587.8 20204 7318.3 1845.6 2981.8 92.2 968.5 1303.8 126.4 -1600.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1819.2 252.7 57.4 939.5 21.7 497.9 20093 1831.3 275.2 58.6 941.3 21.9 483.7 20094 1840.2 269.8 61.9 947.4 22.1 487.2 20101 1857.8 275.0 60.7 955.3 22.3 492.1 20102 1880.4 281.5 61.1 964.9 22.6 497.5 20103 1907.0 288.9 61.7 976.5 22.8 503.5 20104 1931.7 296.2 61.0 986.6 23.2 510.4 20111 1958.3 303.6 60.3 998.1 23.5 517.7 20112 1987.5 311.2 60.1 1011.0 23.8 525.4 20113 2019.4 319.2 60.5 1025.2 24.2 533.6 20114 2051.5 327.2 60.6 1039.2 24.6 542.2 20121 2085.0 335.3 60.9 1054.0 25.0 551.2 20122 2120.0 343.5 61.5 1069.6 25.4 560.4 20123 2156.7 352.0 62.3 1086.0 25.9 569.9 20124 2194.6 360.6 63.1 1103.2 26.3 579.7 20131 2232.9 369.1 63.6 1120.9 26.8 589.8 20132 2272.3 377.7 64.4 1139.2 27.2 600.0 20133 2312.9 386.5 65.5 1157.9 27.7 610.4 20134 2354.4 395.5 66.5 1177.2 28.2 621.0 20141 2396.4 404.6 67.5 1196.7 28.7 631.8 20142 2439.0 413.9 68.4 1216.6 29.2 642.7 20143 2482.1 423.1 69.1 1236.9 29.7 653.7 20144 2525.6 432.5 69.9 1257.5 30.2 664.9 20151 2569.5 441.9 70.5 1278.3 30.7 676.3 20152 2613.6 451.3 71.0 1299.2 31.2 687.7 20153 2658.0 460.8 71.5 1320.4 31.7 699.2 20154 2702.8 470.3 72.0 1341.9 32.2 710.8 20161 2747.8 479.8 72.4 1363.4 32.8 722.5 20162 2793.0 489.4 72.8 1385.2 33.3 734.3 20163 2838.6 499.0 73.2 1407.1 33.8 746.1 20164 2884.7 508.7 73.6 1429.3 34.4 758.1 20171 2931.2 518.4 74.0 1451.8 34.9 770.1 20172 2978.2 528.3 74.5 1474.5 35.5 782.3 20173 3025.7 538.2 75.0 1497.5 36.0 794.5 20174 3074.1 548.3 75.6 1520.9 36.6 806.9 20181 3123.0 558.5 76.2 1544.7 37.2 819.4 20182 3172.6 568.9 76.9 1568.7 37.7 832.0 20183 3223.0 579.4 77.7 1593.1 38.3 844.7 20184 3274.7 590.1 78.6 1618.2 38.9 857.7 20191 3327.2 601.0 79.6 1643.7 39.5 870.8 20192 3380.5 612.1 80.7 1669.5 40.1 884.1 20193 3435.0 623.5 81.9 1695.9 40.7 897.5 20194 3490.9 635.1 83.3 1723.0 41.3 911.2 20201 3547.9 647.0 84.8 1750.6 42.0 925.2 20202 3606.0 659.2 86.4 1778.6 42.6 939.3 20203 3665.6 671.7 88.1 1807.3 43.3 953.7 20204 3727.0 684.5 90.0 1837.1 43.9 968.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 -36.6 20092 1843.8 1429.9 405.3 3.9 -2.7 4.7 -24.6 20093 1846.1 1429.8 406.7 5.5 -2.6 4.1 -14.8 20094 1854.5 1439.7 405.0 6.3 -2.4 3.5 -14.3 20101 1868.1 1455.6 402.6 6.4 -2.4 3.5 -10.3 20102 1882.8 1473.1 399.7 6.4 -2.5 3.6 -2.3 20103 1898.7 1492.3 396.3 6.5 -2.5 3.6 8.2 20104 1917.3 1512.9 394.1 6.6 -2.5 3.7 14.4 20111 1938.7 1534.8 393.5 6.7 -2.6 3.7 19.5 20112 1962.8 1558.0 394.2 6.8 -2.6 3.8 24.7 20113 1989.1 1582.4 396.0 6.9 -2.6 3.8 30.3 20114 2017.6 1607.6 399.2 7.0 -2.7 3.9 33.9 20121 2048.1 1633.6 403.4 7.1 -2.7 4.0 36.8 20122 2080.2 1660.3 408.6 7.2 -2.8 4.0 39.8 20123 2113.7 1687.7 414.5 7.4 -2.8 4.1 43.0 20124 2148.5 1715.7 421.1 7.5 -2.9 4.2 46.1 20131 2184.5 1744.1 428.5 7.6 -2.9 4.2 48.4 20132 2221.5 1773.0 436.5 7.8 -3.0 4.3 50.8 20133 2259.4 1802.2 444.9 7.9 -3.0 4.4 53.5 20134 2298.1 1831.9 453.8 8.0 -3.1 4.5 56.3 20141 2337.5 1861.9 462.9 8.2 -3.1 4.5 58.9 20142 2377.7 1892.2 472.5 8.3 -3.2 4.6 61.3 20143 2418.6 1922.9 482.5 8.5 -3.2 4.7 63.5 20144 2460.2 1953.9 492.9 8.6 -3.3 4.8 65.5 20151 2502.4 1985.1 503.7 8.7 -3.3 4.9 67.1 20152 2545.3 2016.6 514.9 8.9 -3.4 4.9 68.3 20153 2588.8 2048.3 526.4 9.0 -3.4 5.0 69.2 20154 2632.9 2080.2 538.4 9.2 -3.5 5.1 69.9 20161 2677.5 2112.3 550.7 9.3 -3.6 5.2 70.3 20162 2722.6 2144.6 563.3 9.5 -3.6 5.3 70.4 20163 2768.3 2177.1 576.2 9.6 -3.7 5.4 70.3 20164 2814.4 2209.8 589.3 9.8 -3.7 5.4 70.3 20171 2861.0 2242.8 602.7 10.0 -3.8 5.5 70.2 20172 2908.1 2276.0 616.4 10.1 -3.9 5.6 70.0 20173 2955.8 2309.5 630.3 10.3 -3.9 5.7 70.0 20174 3003.9 2343.2 644.4 10.4 -4.0 5.8 70.2 20181 3052.5 2377.3 658.7 10.6 -4.0 5.9 70.5 20182 3101.8 2411.8 673.2 10.8 -4.1 6.0 70.8 20183 3151.6 2446.6 687.9 10.9 -4.2 6.1 71.4 20184 3202.0 2481.9 702.9 11.1 -4.2 6.2 72.7 20191 3253.1 2517.6 718.0 11.3 -4.3 6.3 74.0 20192 3304.9 2553.8 733.3 11.4 -4.4 6.4 75.6 20193 3357.5 2590.5 748.9 11.6 -4.4 6.4 77.5 20194 3410.8 2627.7 764.7 11.8 -4.5 6.5 80.1 20201 3464.9 2665.6 780.7 12.0 -4.6 6.6 83.0 20202 3519.9 2704.0 797.0 12.1 -4.6 6.7 86.1 20203 3575.8 2743.1 813.6 12.3 -4.7 6.9 89.7 20204 3632.7 2782.8 830.5 12.5 -4.8 7.0 94.3
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -168.3 83.1 116.8 540.6 -418.0 -154.1 20042 -156.7 -13.0 101.7 618.8 -394.5 -156.3 20043 -183.1 27.4 31.9 636.8 -377.2 -135.8 20044 -168.7 -173.5 114.7 719.7 -376.7 -115.6 20051 -365.6 -85.5 153.8 699.0 -299.2 -102.5 20052 -412.6 0.2 116.3 708.6 -300.9 -111.7 20053 -441.4 96.9 11.1 739.4 -300.5 -105.5 20054 -414.1 -94.9 62.2 833.7 -284.7 -102.2 20061 -346.1 -276.3 125.3 794.3 -224.7 -72.4 20062 -283.6 -316.1 114.3 815.6 -249.0 -81.2 20063 -269.5 -337.3 80.3 858.0 -229.6 -102.0 20064 -198.8 -339.9 84.6 744.3 -182.9 -107.2 20071 -211.0 -273.4 15.6 804.2 -216.4 -119.1 20072 -210.6 -223.1 29.6 767.3 -242.6 -120.6 20073 -149.1 -133.2 8.8 689.6 -279.7 -136.4 20074 -165.2 -10.1 -33.7 656.7 -287.5 -160.3 20081 -146.2 -89.0 141.9 722.5 -454.1 -175.2 20082 123.5 7.6 126.1 758.4 -829.6 -185.9 20083 6.1 93.5 78.3 742.1 -700.9 -219.1 20084 225.0 120.0 -43.8 626.0 -718.3 -208.9 20091 272.8 446.4 55.2 414.7 -1004.4 -184.7 20092 491.5 496.2 112.2 394.6 -1308.1 -186.4 20093 379.5 513.3 220.3 430.5 -1366.7 -176.9 20094 399.5 442.9 219.9 455.4 -1346.1 -171.5 20101 423.5 425.8 221.7 466.6 -1370.2 -167.4 20102 447.6 387.4 223.8 479.9 -1379.5 -159.3 20103 466.3 341.9 226.4 498.3 -1384.0 -148.9 20104 265.2 262.5 229.2 514.5 -1128.4 -143.0 20111 311.7 213.8 232.4 518.0 -1137.6 -138.3 20112 347.6 172.9 235.8 522.9 -1145.6 -133.6 20113 378.0 131.6 239.5 530.3 -1150.8 -128.6 20114 327.8 74.1 243.4 537.4 -1056.9 -125.8 20121 365.3 31.2 247.4 545.2 -1065.7 -123.5 20122 399.1 -9.8 251.6 554.6 -1074.2 -121.3 20123 430.4 -51.4 255.9 565.7 -1081.6 -118.9 20124 457.3 -97.2 260.4 578.5 -1082.5 -116.6 20131 470.7 -146.9 264.9 592.4 -1066.1 -115.1 20132 495.2 -180.9 269.5 607.6 -1077.8 -113.5 20133 520.1 -217.5 274.3 623.9 -1089.1 -111.6 20134 545.2 -255.0 279.0 641.1 -1100.7 -109.6 20141 570.7 -292.4 283.9 658.9 -1113.3 -107.7 20142 596.1 -328.7 288.8 677.0 -1127.2 -106.1 20143 621.4 -363.3 293.8 695.2 -1142.4 -104.6 20144 645.7 -395.4 298.9 713.1 -1158.9 -103.3 20151 670.1 -425.3 303.9 730.4 -1176.7 -102.4 20152 694.6 -452.7 309.1 746.8 -1195.9 -101.8 20153 718.5 -476.8 314.3 761.8 -1216.3 -101.5 20154 741.1 -497.1 319.5 775.5 -1237.7 -101.3 20161 763.8 -514.4 324.7 787.4 -1260.0 -101.4 20162 786.1 -528.4 330.0 797.4 -1283.3 -101.8 20163 807.4 -538.5 335.3 805.2 -1307.2 -102.3 20164 826.8 -544.4 340.6 811.0 -1331.4 -102.6 20171 845.7 -547.3 346.0 814.6 -1355.9 -103.1 20172 863.6 -546.8 351.4 815.9 -1380.6 -103.5 20173 880.1 -542.9 356.9 815.0 -1405.3 -103.8 20174 894.2 -535.2 362.4 812.1 -1429.6 -103.8 20181 908.0 -525.7 367.9 807.0 -1453.6 -103.7 20182 921.0 -513.7 373.5 799.9 -1477.3 -103.5 20183 932.4 -499.1 379.2 790.9 -1500.4 -103.0 20184 940.6 -481.5 385.0 780.4 -1522.6 -101.8 20191 949.0 -463.7 390.8 768.3 -1543.9 -100.5 20192 957.0 -445.0 396.7 754.7 -1564.5 -98.9 20193 963.7 -425.1 402.7 739.9 -1584.3 -97.0 20194 967.1 -403.2 408.8 724.3 -1602.6 -94.3 20201 971.0 -382.7 415.1 707.8 -1619.8 -91.4 20202 974.7 -362.6 421.4 690.7 -1636.0 -88.1 20203 976.7 -342.2 427.9 673.1 -1651.1 -84.4 20204 974.6 -320.7 434.4 655.8 -1664.4 -79.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11597.2 8105.4 1045.9 1789.2 5270.3 20042 11778.4 8209.4 1052.3 1810.5 5346.6 20043 11950.6 8330.7 1065.0 1834.4 5431.3 20044 12144.9 8494.9 1083.1 1888.7 5523.1 20051 12379.5 8609.6 1089.2 1908.1 5612.3 20052 12516.8 8747.2 1117.9 1929.4 5699.9 20053 12741.6 8908.9 1122.5 2002.0 5784.4 20054 12915.6 9010.2 1092.3 2034.2 5883.7 20061 13183.5 9148.2 1132.5 2048.3 5967.4 20062 13347.8 9266.6 1125.1 2081.4 6060.1 20063 13453.0 9391.8 1132.4 2118.1 6141.3 20064 13611.6 9484.1 1142.2 2106.9 6235.0 20071 13795.6 9658.5 1153.0 2153.3 6352.2 20072 13997.2 9762.5 1154.9 2183.3 6424.3 20073 14179.9 9865.6 1161.4 2205.2 6499.0 20074 14337.9 10019.2 1172.7 2276.2 6570.3 20081 14382.8 10095.1 1145.8 2301.4 6647.9 20082 14497.7 10194.7 1126.5 2348.4 6719.8 20083 14546.7 10220.1 1088.5 2374.5 6757.1 20084 14347.3 10009.8 1019.9 2207.6 6782.3 20091 14177.8 9987.6 1025.2 2172.4 6790.0 20092 14151.2 9999.3 1011.5 2182.2 6805.6 20093 14242.3 10132.9 1051.3 2241.0 6840.6 20094 14463.4 10250.5 1049.3 2297.5 6903.7 20101 14607.9 10336.2 1067.9 2314.3 6954.0 20102 14814.9 10440.2 1092.1 2333.8 7014.4 20103 15062.0 10564.8 1121.2 2358.1 7085.5 20104 15281.2 10674.3 1136.9 2382.2 7155.1 20111 15507.6 10799.4 1158.4 2408.9 7232.0 20112 15760.8 10939.1 1184.4 2438.5 7316.3 20113 16043.9 11091.9 1213.9 2470.6 7407.4 20114 16322.2 11243.6 1239.7 2503.2 7500.7 20121 16610.4 11404.1 1269.1 2537.3 7597.8 20122 16915.5 11572.9 1300.8 2572.7 7699.4 20123 17236.2 11750.2 1332.9 2609.3 7808.0 20124 17561.9 11936.4 1363.1 2646.8 7926.5 20131 17879.7 12128.1 1391.3 2684.4 8052.4 20132 18211.9 12325.6 1418.9 2722.4 8184.3 20133 18556.2 12528.4 1446.5 2760.9 8321.0 20134 18907.3 12736.3 1473.9 2800.0 8462.4 20141 19261.2 12948.1 1502.3 2839.6 8606.2 20142 19616.3 13163.7 1531.6 2879.8 8752.3 20143 19972.0 13382.6 1561.2 2920.3 8901.1 20144 20328.6 13605.4 1590.1 2961.2 9054.1 20151 20684.7 13830.3 1620.0 3002.3 9208.0 20152 21039.9 14057.2 1650.7 3043.8 9362.6 20153 21394.4 14286.3 1681.3 3085.6 9519.4 20154 21749.4 14518.4 1710.6 3127.5 9680.2 20161 22103.8 14751.8 1741.0 3169.7 9841.0 20162 22457.7 14986.8 1772.3 3212.3 10002.2 20163 22811.8 15224.0 1803.6 3255.2 10165.2 20164 23168.1 15464.9 1833.7 3298.4 10332.8 20171 23525.8 15707.8 1865.1 3342.0 10500.6 20172 23885.4 15953.3 1897.0 3386.1 10670.1 20173 24248.0 16202.2 1928.7 3430.6 10842.8 20174 24615.6 16456.0 1958.9 3475.5 11021.6 20181 24987.0 16712.5 1990.5 3520.9 11201.1 20182 25362.6 16972.5 2022.8 3566.8 11382.9 20183 25743.8 17237.2 2054.8 3613.2 11569.1 20184 26133.7 17508.8 2084.5 3660.1 11764.2 20191 26530.3 17784.0 2116.2 3707.6 11960.3 20192 26933.5 18063.5 2149.2 3755.8 12158.5 20193 27344.7 18348.6 2182.4 3804.8 12361.4 20194 27767.6 18642.2 2213.2 3854.3 12574.8 20201 28199.6 18940.3 2246.3 3904.6 12789.3 20202 28640.6 19243.8 2280.8 3955.8 13007.3 20203 29092.5 19554.6 2315.0 4007.6 13232.0 20204 29559.4 19876.3 2346.0 4060.0 13470.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1853.6 1802.2 1164.6 637.6 51.4 20042 1956.0 1880.0 1204.4 675.6 76.0 20043 2001.4 1940.6 1244.0 696.6 60.8 20044 2063.2 1991.7 1279.1 712.6 71.5 20051 2130.7 2040.0 1305.2 734.8 90.7 20052 2115.3 2099.4 1334.9 764.5 15.9 20053 2166.5 2155.5 1362.9 792.6 11.0 20054 2276.4 2194.2 1386.3 807.9 82.2 20061 2336.5 2270.5 1457.2 813.3 66.0 20062 2352.1 2279.7 1495.3 784.4 72.4 20063 2333.5 2264.4 1522.7 741.7 69.1 20064 2286.5 2254.2 1546.1 708.1 32.3 20071 2267.2 2254.1 1574.1 680.0 13.1 20072 2302.1 2278.6 1623.5 655.1 23.5 20073 2311.8 2280.8 1665.2 615.6 31.0 20074 2272.9 2263.1 1697.9 565.2 9.8 20081 2223.8 2223.1 1705.0 518.1 0.7 20082 2164.6 2213.9 1719.7 494.2 -49.3 20083 2142.6 2179.6 1711.0 468.6 -37.0 20084 2022.0 2066.5 1638.7 427.8 -44.5 20091 1689.8 1817.2 1442.6 374.6 -127.4 20092 1561.5 1737.7 1391.8 345.9 -176.2 20093 1556.2 1712.7 1353.9 358.8 -156.5 20094 1683.9 1723.9 1358.2 365.7 -40.0 20101 1724.3 1735.5 1340.8 394.7 -11.1 20102 1807.9 1788.1 1355.0 433.1 19.8 20103 1913.0 1874.6 1394.1 480.5 38.4 20104 1997.1 1928.6 1429.2 499.3 68.5 20111 2060.0 1994.2 1466.3 527.9 65.8 20112 2133.6 2075.1 1512.9 562.3 58.5 20113 2224.5 2167.0 1566.7 600.3 57.6 20114 2316.4 2247.9 1619.7 628.2 68.6 20121 2401.7 2335.9 1676.9 659.0 65.8 20122 2495.1 2431.5 1740.3 691.2 63.6 20123 2596.6 2531.8 1808.0 723.8 64.8 20124 2702.3 2632.9 1877.2 755.8 69.4 20131 2804.0 2730.2 1945.3 784.9 73.8 20132 2897.5 2829.6 2016.7 812.9 67.8 20133 2998.1 2930.4 2090.7 839.8 67.7 20134 3100.7 3030.4 2164.9 865.6 70.3 20141 3202.0 3129.1 2238.9 890.2 72.9 20142 3300.5 3226.2 2312.6 913.6 74.3 20143 3395.7 3321.0 2385.0 935.9 74.7 20144 3487.0 3412.7 2455.6 957.1 74.3 20151 3574.7 3500.8 2523.7 977.1 73.8 20152 3658.1 3585.0 2588.7 996.2 73.1 20153 3737.0 3664.9 2650.5 1014.4 72.1 20154 3811.5 3740.6 2708.8 1031.8 70.9 20161 3882.1 3811.9 2763.4 1048.5 70.2 20162 3948.3 3878.7 2814.2 1064.6 69.6 20163 4010.1 3941.2 2861.0 1080.2 68.9 20164 4068.0 3999.8 2904.4 1095.4 68.1 20171 4122.7 4054.6 2944.2 1110.4 68.1 20172 4174.0 4105.8 2980.6 1125.2 68.2 20173 4222.2 4153.9 3014.0 1139.9 68.3 20174 4268.0 4199.4 3044.8 1154.6 68.5 20181 4312.1 4242.6 3073.2 1169.4 69.5 20182 4354.3 4283.8 3099.5 1184.3 70.5 20183 4394.9 4323.6 3124.2 1199.4 71.3 20184 4434.8 4362.9 3148.3 1214.6 71.9 20191 4475.5 4401.9 3171.6 1230.2 73.7 20192 4516.3 4440.8 3194.6 1246.1 75.5 20193 4557.2 4480.3 3217.9 1262.4 77.0 20194 4599.4 4521.4 3242.3 1279.1 78.0 20201 4644.4 4564.0 3267.9 1296.2 80.4 20202 4691.2 4608.5 3294.7 1313.8 82.7 20203 4740.0 4655.4 3323.6 1331.9 84.5 20204 4791.7 4705.9 3355.4 1350.4 85.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -546.3 1138.8 1685.1 2184.5 805.1 1379.4 20042 -606.1 1170.8 1776.9 2219.1 819.9 1399.2 20043 -635.9 1185.4 1821.3 2254.4 839.1 1415.3 20044 -686.5 1225.9 1912.4 2273.3 834.5 1438.8 20051 -677.4 1262.4 1939.8 2316.6 862.0 1454.6 20052 -690.2 1298.5 1988.7 2344.5 867.2 1477.3 20053 -733.9 1308.2 2042.1 2400.1 894.1 1506.0 20054 -789.3 1351.3 2140.6 2418.3 881.9 1536.4 20061 -775.8 1414.0 2189.8 2474.6 928.5 1546.1 20062 -781.4 1456.0 2237.4 2510.5 930.3 1580.2 20063 -805.7 1476.0 2281.7 2533.4 932.2 1601.2 20064 -714.3 1538.2 2252.5 2555.3 935.9 1619.4 20071 -729.4 1564.9 2294.3 2599.3 942.8 1656.5 20072 -724.8 1602.1 2326.9 2657.4 968.1 1689.3 20073 -698.4 1685.2 2383.6 2700.9 991.4 1709.5 20074 -702.4 1771.6 2474.0 2748.2 1004.3 1743.9 20081 -744.5 1803.6 2548.1 2808.4 1038.3 1770.1 20082 -738.7 1901.5 2640.2 2877.1 1069.5 1807.6 20083 -757.4 1913.1 2670.5 2941.4 1108.3 1833.1 20084 -590.5 1706.2 2296.7 2906.0 1114.3 1791.7 20091 -378.6 1509.3 1887.9 2879.0 1106.7 1772.3 20092 -339.1 1493.7 1832.8 2929.5 1138.3 1791.2 20093 -402.2 1573.8 1976.0 2955.4 1164.3 1791.1 20094 -440.5 1663.4 2103.9 2969.5 1170.4 1799.1 20101 -451.6 1686.7 2138.3 2998.9 1182.0 1816.8 20102 -464.7 1712.5 2177.2 3031.4 1194.9 1836.5 20103 -482.9 1741.0 2223.9 3067.1 1208.8 1858.3 20104 -498.9 1772.0 2270.9 3108.7 1226.6 1882.1 20111 -502.2 1818.1 2320.2 3150.4 1242.9 1907.5 20112 -506.9 1866.8 2373.6 3195.0 1260.5 1934.4 20113 -514.0 1918.1 2432.0 3241.4 1278.7 1962.7 20114 -520.8 1971.8 2492.6 3282.9 1290.8 1992.2 20121 -528.4 2027.9 2556.2 3332.9 1310.3 2022.6 20122 -537.4 2086.1 2623.5 3384.8 1330.9 2054.0 20123 -548.3 2146.4 2694.7 3437.6 1351.5 2086.1 20124 -560.8 2208.9 2769.7 3484.0 1365.1 2118.9 20131 -574.4 2273.3 2847.7 3522.1 1369.8 2152.3 20132 -589.2 2339.7 2928.9 3578.0 1391.8 2186.2 20133 -605.2 2408.0 3013.2 3634.8 1414.2 2220.6 20134 -622.1 2478.3 3100.4 3692.3 1436.9 2255.4 20141 -639.5 2550.5 3190.1 3750.6 1459.9 2290.7 20142 -657.3 2624.7 3282.1 3809.5 1483.2 2326.3 20143 -675.2 2700.9 3376.0 3868.9 1506.7 2362.3 20144 -692.8 2779.0 3471.7 3929.0 1530.4 2398.6 20151 -709.7 2859.0 3568.7 3989.4 1554.3 2435.2 20152 -725.7 2940.9 3666.6 4050.3 1578.3 2472.0 20153 -740.5 3024.7 3765.2 4111.6 1602.5 2509.1 20154 -753.8 3110.5 3864.3 4173.3 1626.9 2546.4 20161 -765.3 3198.2 3963.5 4235.2 1651.4 2583.8 20162 -774.9 3287.9 4062.8 4297.5 1676.0 2621.5 20163 -782.4 3379.5 4161.9 4360.1 1700.8 2659.3 20164 -787.8 3473.2 4261.1 4423.0 1725.7 2697.4 20171 -791.0 3569.1 4360.1 4486.4 1750.7 2735.6 20172 -792.0 3667.1 4459.1 4550.1 1776.0 2774.1 20173 -790.7 3767.4 4558.1 4614.3 1801.4 2812.9 20174 -787.4 3870.1 4657.5 4679.0 1827.0 2852.0 20181 -782.0 3975.2 4757.2 4744.3 1852.8 2891.5 20182 -774.5 4083.0 4857.5 4810.2 1878.9 2931.3 20183 -765.1 4193.4 4958.5 4876.8 1905.3 2971.5 20184 -754.1 4306.7 5060.9 4944.2 1932.0 3012.2 20191 -741.7 4422.9 5164.6 5012.3 1958.9 3053.4 20192 -727.7 4542.3 5270.0 5081.4 1986.3 3095.1 20193 -712.4 4664.8 5377.2 5151.4 2014.0 3137.4 20194 -696.4 4790.7 5487.1 5222.3 2042.1 3180.3 20201 -679.5 4920.2 5599.7 5294.4 2070.6 3223.8 20202 -662.0 5053.3 5715.2 5367.6 2099.6 3268.0 20203 -643.9 5190.2 5834.2 5441.9 2129.0 3312.9 20204 -626.1 5331.1 5957.3 5517.5 2158.9 3358.6
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2005 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 12127.7 8438.2 1031.0 1888.9 5518.3 20042 12213.9 8483.9 1038.3 1893.9 5551.7 20043 12303.6 8556.1 1058.7 1907.8 5589.6 20044 12410.3 8654.5 1076.1 1927.6 5650.8 20051 12534.1 8719.3 1083.3 1949.6 5686.4 20052 12587.6 8803.0 1113.6 1961.5 5727.9 20053 12683.1 8865.7 1126.7 1971.8 5767.2 20054 12748.7 8888.0 1098.4 1990.7 5798.9 20061 12915.9 8987.0 1142.3 2003.7 5841.0 20062 12962.4 9035.1 1139.4 2011.5 5884.2 20063 12966.0 9090.9 1152.1 2024.5 5914.3 20064 13060.6 9182.0 1167.9 2054.7 5959.4 20071 13100.0 9265.7 1183.7 2070.3 6011.7 20072 13204.0 9292.3 1189.9 2066.1 6036.3 20073 13321.1 9337.3 1205.0 2076.8 6055.5 20074 13391.3 9367.0 1221.2 2086.0 6059.8 20081 13366.9 9350.4 1193.2 2070.1 6087.1 20082 13415.3 9349.5 1175.7 2081.3 6092.5 20083 13324.7 9263.4 1139.6 2051.4 6072.4 20084 13141.9 9183.3 1076.8 2026.1 6080.4 20091 12925.4 9198.7 1087.2 2035.4 6076.1 20092 12901.5 9176.2 1071.7 2025.7 6078.8 20093 12973.1 9246.7 1122.8 2033.3 6090.6 20094 13155.1 9291.3 1120.3 2054.5 6116.5 20101 13252.1 9348.7 1137.5 2064.6 6146.6 20102 13391.8 9413.4 1159.3 2075.0 6179.0 20103 13551.9 9485.8 1184.9 2087.3 6213.7 20104 13664.0 9532.4 1194.9 2097.0 6240.4 20111 13773.2 9586.1 1210.0 2107.5 6268.6 20112 13895.1 9646.0 1228.8 2118.8 6298.5 20113 14031.6 9710.9 1250.0 2130.9 6329.9 20114 14151.1 9768.4 1266.7 2142.2 6359.6 20121 14272.6 9829.7 1286.2 2153.7 6389.7 20122 14401.6 9894.3 1307.4 2165.7 6421.3 20123 14536.7 9962.4 1328.2 2177.8 6456.4 20124 14668.9 10034.3 1346.6 2189.9 6497.8 20131 14788.8 10108.0 1362.5 2201.8 6543.7 20132 14917.0 10184.2 1377.4 2213.6 6593.2 20133 15050.5 10262.7 1392.0 2225.4 6645.2 20134 15185.3 10343.3 1406.2 2237.4 6699.7 20141 15318.7 10425.5 1421.0 2249.6 6755.0 20142 15449.8 10509.2 1436.3 2261.9 6811.0 20143 15578.5 10594.3 1451.7 2274.4 6868.3 20144 15705.2 10681.1 1466.2 2286.9 6928.0 20151 15829.5 10768.8 1481.5 2299.6 6987.6 20152 15951.4 10857.2 1497.3 2312.5 7047.4 20153 16071.3 10946.6 1512.9 2325.5 7108.3 20154 16190.1 11037.6 1527.2 2338.6 7171.7 20161 16307.6 11129.2 1542.4 2352.0 7234.8 20162 16423.8 11221.6 1558.3 2365.6 7297.8 20163 16539.4 11315.2 1574.1 2379.4 7361.7 20164 16655.4 11410.7 1588.7 2393.4 7428.6 20171 16771.7 11507.2 1604.3 2407.7 7495.2 20172 16888.3 11605.0 1620.2 2422.3 7562.5 20173 17005.9 11704.4 1635.9 2437.1 7631.5 20174 17125.2 11806.2 1650.1 2452.0 7704.1 20181 17245.8 11908.9 1665.3 2467.2 7776.4 20182 17367.5 12013.0 1681.0 2482.5 7849.5 20183 17491.0 12118.9 1696.1 2498.1 7924.7 20184 17617.7 12227.8 1709.3 2513.7 8004.8 20191 17746.5 12337.7 1723.8 2529.5 8084.5 20192 17877.2 12448.9 1739.1 2545.5 8164.3 20193 18010.1 12562.0 1754.3 2561.7 8245.9 20194 18147.0 12678.3 1767.4 2578.0 8333.0 20201 18286.5 12795.7 1782.0 2594.4 8419.3 20202 18428.2 12914.6 1797.4 2611.0 8506.2 20203 18572.8 13035.6 1812.2 2627.7 8595.7 20204 18722.3 13160.8 1824.3 2644.3 8692.2
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1971.1 1918.7 1214.2 704.5 52.4 20042 2056.7 1978.0 1247.0 731.0 78.7 20043 2082.4 2019.7 1281.2 738.5 62.7 20044 2125.3 2053.7 1309.5 744.2 71.6 20051 2170.6 2079.2 1321.5 757.7 91.4 20052 2131.7 2116.2 1340.8 775.4 15.5 20053 2154.8 2143.0 1359.7 783.3 11.8 20054 2231.8 2150.8 1367.2 783.6 81.0 20061 2265.9 2200.1 1424.9 775.2 65.8 20062 2262.9 2190.4 1450.3 740.1 72.5 20063 2230.9 2163.4 1466.0 697.4 67.5 20064 2166.6 2134.8 1474.5 660.3 31.8 20071 2135.9 2121.4 1489.6 631.8 14.5 20072 2163.9 2140.6 1530.2 610.4 23.3 20073 2168.6 2138.8 1565.8 573.0 29.8 20074 2126.6 2116.3 1591.3 525.0 10.3 20081 2082.8 2082.2 1598.9 483.3 0.6 20082 2030.3 2067.4 1604.4 463.0 -37.1 20083 1992.9 2022.6 1579.2 443.4 -29.7 20084 1873.6 1911.0 1496.0 415.0 -37.4 20091 1575.3 1689.2 1321.2 368.0 -113.9 20092 1472.5 1632.7 1288.3 344.4 -160.2 20093 1489.3 1628.5 1268.9 359.6 -139.2 20094 1609.1 1642.6 1278.0 364.6 -33.5 20101 1641.9 1651.2 1258.6 392.6 -9.3 20102 1713.5 1697.0 1267.7 429.3 16.5 20103 1804.4 1772.6 1298.5 474.2 31.8 20104 1870.5 1814.0 1323.9 490.1 56.5 20111 1918.6 1864.8 1349.9 514.9 53.9 20112 1975.5 1927.9 1383.2 544.7 47.6 20113 2045.6 1999.1 1421.9 577.2 46.5 20114 2112.8 2057.9 1458.5 599.4 55.0 20121 2173.8 2121.5 1497.8 623.7 52.3 20122 2240.3 2190.2 1541.5 648.7 50.1 20123 2311.9 2261.3 1587.8 673.5 50.6 20124 2385.3 2331.5 1634.3 697.2 53.8 20131 2453.4 2396.7 1678.9 717.8 56.7 20132 2514.0 2462.4 1725.5 736.9 51.7 20133 2579.0 2527.9 1773.2 754.7 51.1 20134 2644.0 2591.4 1820.3 771.1 52.6 20141 2706.7 2652.6 1866.4 786.3 54.1 20142 2766.0 2711.4 1911.3 800.1 54.6 20143 2821.7 2767.2 1954.5 812.7 54.5 20144 2873.4 2819.7 1995.6 824.1 53.8 20151 2921.4 2868.4 2034.0 834.4 53.0 20152 2965.3 2913.3 2069.5 843.8 52.0 20153 3005.2 2954.3 2101.9 852.4 50.9 20154 3041.2 2991.6 2131.4 860.2 49.7 20161 3073.8 3025.0 2157.6 867.4 48.8 20162 3102.7 3054.7 2180.7 874.1 48.0 20163 3128.0 3080.9 2200.6 880.3 47.1 20164 3150.2 3103.9 2217.7 886.2 46.3 20171 3169.8 3123.9 2231.9 891.9 45.9 20172 3186.7 3141.0 2243.6 897.4 45.7 20173 3201.3 3155.8 2252.9 902.9 45.5 20174 3213.9 3168.6 2260.4 908.2 45.3 20181 3225.2 3179.6 2266.0 913.6 45.6 20182 3235.0 3189.0 2270.0 919.0 45.9 20183 3243.5 3197.4 2272.9 924.5 46.1 20184 3251.4 3205.2 2275.1 930.1 46.3 20191 3259.7 3212.6 2276.9 935.8 47.1 20192 3267.8 3219.9 2278.3 941.6 47.9 20193 3275.9 3227.4 2279.7 947.6 48.5 20194 3284.6 3235.7 2281.9 953.8 48.9 20201 3295.0 3244.9 2284.7 960.2 50.0 20202 3306.2 3255.1 2288.3 966.8 51.1 20203 3318.5 3266.6 2293.0 973.6 51.9 20204 3332.6 3280.2 2299.6 980.6 52.4
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -632.5 1197.3 1829.8 2355.1 20042 -687.1 1216.0 1903.1 2363.6 20043 -705.6 1225.1 1930.7 2372.1 20044 -726.7 1253.0 1979.7 2357.6 20051 -714.8 1276.2 1991.0 2359.9 20052 -709.4 1303.5 2012.9 2362.4 20053 -721.3 1303.9 2025.2 2383.9 20054 -745.3 1336.7 2082.0 2373.3 20061 -732.5 1388.8 2121.3 2397.2 20062 -732.8 1412.1 2144.9 2399.1 20063 -756.5 1414.1 2170.6 2402.8 20064 -694.9 1473.2 2168.1 2409.5 20071 -705.0 1485.9 2190.9 2409.3 20072 -683.3 1504.8 2188.1 2435.2 20073 -638.5 1569.9 2208.4 2459.1 20074 -564.0 1624.0 2188.0 2468.8 20081 -550.8 1623.5 2174.3 2485.3 20082 -476.0 1670.5 2146.5 2507.9 20083 -479.2 1655.2 2134.4 2538.6 20084 -470.8 1568.1 2038.9 2546.6 20091 -386.4 1434.6 1821.0 2529.6 20092 -330.3 1419.5 1749.8 2571.5 20093 -357.4 1478.9 1836.3 2588.9 20094 -341.0 1541.7 1882.7 2587.8 20101 -343.4 1560.6 1904.1 2597.1 20102 -349.4 1579.8 1929.1 2606.4 20103 -361.6 1599.2 1960.7 2615.3 20104 -373.5 1618.8 1992.3 2626.7 20111 -375.3 1650.2 2025.5 2635.8 20112 -379.6 1682.3 2061.9 2645.3 20113 -387.2 1715.0 2102.2 2654.4 20114 -395.7 1748.3 2144.0 2657.6 20121 -405.5 1782.3 2187.8 2666.8 20122 -417.4 1816.9 2234.3 2676.5 20123 -431.4 1852.2 2283.6 2685.8 20124 -447.4 1888.2 2335.5 2688.8 20131 -464.7 1924.8 2389.5 2684.2 20132 -483.3 1962.2 2445.5 2694.1 20133 -503.1 2000.3 2503.4 2704.0 20134 -523.9 2039.2 2563.1 2714.0 20141 -545.4 2078.8 2624.3 2724.0 20142 -567.4 2119.2 2686.6 2734.0 20143 -589.5 2160.4 2749.9 2744.1 20144 -611.5 2202.3 2813.8 2754.3 20151 -633.0 2245.1 2878.2 2764.5 20152 -653.8 2288.7 2942.5 2774.8 20153 -673.5 2333.2 3006.7 2785.1 20154 -692.1 2378.5 3070.6 2795.4 20161 -709.2 2424.7 3133.9 2805.8 20162 -724.7 2471.8 3196.5 2816.3 20163 -738.5 2519.9 3258.4 2826.8 20164 -750.7 2568.8 3319.5 2837.4 20171 -761.2 2618.7 3379.9 2848.0 20172 -770.0 2669.6 3439.5 2858.7 20173 -777.1 2721.4 3498.6 2869.4 20174 -782.9 2774.3 3557.2 2880.1 20181 -787.2 2828.2 3615.4 2891.0 20182 -790.2 2883.2 3673.4 2901.9 20183 -792.1 2939.2 3731.3 2912.8 20184 -793.2 2996.3 3789.5 2923.8 20191 -793.6 3054.5 3848.1 2934.8 20192 -793.4 3113.8 3907.2 2945.9 20193 -792.7 3174.3 3967.0 2957.1 20194 -792.1 3236.0 4028.1 2968.3 20201 -791.6 3298.8 4090.4 2979.5 20202 -791.3 3362.9 4154.2 2990.9 20203 -791.5 3428.2 4219.7 3002.2 20204 -792.6 3494.8 4287.5 3013.7
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2203.4 900.3 192.0 91.8 953.0 20092 2339.4 981.9 223.8 97.8 954.3 20093 2399.4 1047.0 238.1 98.6 957.1 20094 2425.3 1044.7 251.6 103.3 961.3 20101 2459.1 1068.0 246.5 104.2 975.4 20102 2509.9 1096.7 248.2 105.2 994.1 20103 2569.9 1129.8 250.8 106.5 1016.3 20104 2624.1 1162.4 248.0 107.6 1038.6 20111 2678.6 1195.0 245.1 108.8 1061.3 20112 2737.7 1228.8 244.3 110.2 1084.9 20113 2802.1 1264.3 246.0 111.8 1109.5 20114 2864.8 1299.5 246.3 113.3 1134.0 20121 2928.9 1335.1 247.4 114.9 1158.7 20122 2995.7 1371.6 249.8 116.6 1183.7 20123 3065.2 1409.0 253.3 118.4 1209.2 20124 3135.4 1446.9 256.6 120.3 1234.9 20131 3203.4 1484.5 258.5 122.2 1260.2 20132 3273.8 1522.7 261.8 124.2 1285.8 20133 3346.4 1561.8 266.0 126.3 1311.7 20134 3420.3 1601.7 270.3 128.4 1337.9 20141 3494.7 1642.2 274.2 130.5 1364.3 20142 3569.3 1683.2 277.8 132.7 1390.8 20143 3644.0 1724.5 281.0 134.9 1417.2 20144 3718.7 1766.2 283.9 137.1 1443.6 20151 3793.3 1808.2 286.4 139.4 1469.9 20152 3867.7 1850.4 288.7 141.7 1496.1 20153 3942.0 1892.7 290.7 144.0 1522.2 20154 4016.3 1935.3 292.6 146.3 1548.2 20161 4090.6 1978.1 294.3 148.7 1574.0 20162 4164.9 2021.1 295.9 151.0 1599.8 20163 4239.5 2064.4 297.4 153.4 1625.6 20164 4314.6 2108.0 299.1 155.8 1651.3 20171 4390.2 2152.1 300.8 158.3 1677.2 20172 4466.6 2196.6 302.7 160.8 1703.2 20173 4543.9 2241.7 304.6 163.3 1729.3 20174 4622.6 2287.3 307.0 165.8 1755.8 20181 4702.5 2333.7 309.6 168.4 1782.5 20182 4783.8 2380.8 312.4 171.0 1809.5 20183 4866.6 2428.8 315.5 173.7 1837.0 20184 4951.7 2477.6 319.3 176.4 1864.9 20191 5038.8 2527.6 323.5 179.2 1893.5 20192 5127.9 2578.6 327.9 182.0 1922.5 20193 5219.3 2630.7 332.8 184.9 1952.2 20194 5313.5 2684.2 338.5 187.9 1982.5 20201 5410.4 2739.0 344.6 190.9 2013.6 20202 5509.9 2795.3 351.0 193.9 2045.5 20203 5612.2 2853.0 358.0 197.1 2078.1 20204 5718.2 2912.3 365.9 200.3 2111.6
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2314.1 706.4 1026.5 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 1024.5 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1034.8 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1045.9 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1090.4 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1087.5 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1105.8 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1128.5 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1170.1 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1199.8 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1209.4 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1208.5 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1260.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1259.0 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1282.3 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1306.0 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1343.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1678.7 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1462.2 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1432.0 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3172.5 954.2 1510.9 1469.9 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -969.1 20092 3608.2 979.1 1818.5 1763.0 55.5 497.9 253.7 59.0 -1268.8 20093 3726.3 1001.2 1900.4 1841.4 59.0 483.7 271.0 70.0 -1326.9 20094 3738.9 1012.8 1916.3 1869.9 46.4 487.2 259.0 63.6 -1313.6 20101 3796.5 1022.8 1932.8 1885.9 46.9 492.1 284.6 64.2 -1337.4 20102 3856.2 1034.0 1951.3 1904.0 47.4 497.5 308.5 64.9 -1346.3 20103 3920.3 1045.9 1972.2 1924.3 48.0 503.5 332.9 65.7 -1350.4 20104 3718.4 1061.5 1724.9 1676.3 48.6 510.4 355.0 66.6 -1094.3 20111 3781.7 1075.4 1748.7 1699.4 49.3 517.7 372.3 67.6 -1103.0 20112 3848.2 1090.6 1773.9 1723.9 50.0 525.4 389.7 68.6 -1110.5 20113 3917.3 1106.1 1800.7 1749.9 50.8 533.6 407.3 69.7 -1115.2 20114 3885.6 1115.4 1733.2 1681.5 51.6 542.2 424.0 70.8 -1020.8 20121 3957.8 1132.0 1761.6 1709.1 52.5 551.2 441.0 72.0 -1028.9 20122 4032.5 1149.6 1791.0 1737.6 53.4 560.4 458.4 73.2 -1036.8 20123 4108.9 1167.2 1821.3 1767.0 54.3 569.9 476.1 74.4 -1043.7 20124 4179.2 1177.5 1852.1 1796.9 55.2 579.7 494.2 75.7 -1043.8 20131 4230.2 1179.0 1872.0 1815.8 56.2 589.8 512.4 77.0 -1026.8 20132 4311.7 1197.7 1904.4 1847.3 57.1 600.0 531.2 78.3 -1037.9 20133 4394.9 1216.8 1937.5 1879.3 58.1 610.4 550.5 79.7 -1048.4 20134 4479.6 1236.0 1971.1 1912.0 59.1 621.0 570.4 81.1 -1059.3 20141 4565.9 1255.5 2005.3 1945.1 60.2 631.8 590.9 82.5 -1071.2 20142 4653.7 1275.3 2040.0 1978.7 61.2 642.7 611.9 83.9 -1084.4 20143 4742.8 1295.2 2075.1 2012.8 62.3 653.7 633.5 85.3 -1098.9 20144 4833.3 1315.3 2110.6 2047.3 63.3 664.9 655.7 86.8 -1114.6 20151 4925.0 1335.5 2146.5 2082.1 64.4 676.3 678.4 88.3 -1131.7 20152 5017.8 1355.9 2182.8 2117.3 65.5 687.7 701.7 89.8 -1150.1 20153 5111.7 1376.4 2219.3 2152.7 66.6 699.2 725.6 91.3 -1169.8 20154 5206.7 1397.0 2256.2 2188.5 67.7 710.8 749.9 92.8 -1190.4 20161 5302.6 1417.7 2293.3 2224.5 68.8 722.5 774.7 94.3 -1212.0 20162 5399.3 1438.5 2330.7 2260.8 69.9 734.3 800.0 95.9 -1234.4 20163 5497.0 1459.4 2368.4 2297.3 71.1 746.1 825.7 97.4 -1257.5 20164 5595.6 1480.5 2406.3 2334.1 72.2 758.1 851.7 99.0 -1281.0 20171 5695.0 1501.6 2444.5 2371.2 73.3 770.1 878.1 100.5 -1304.7 20172 5795.2 1522.9 2483.0 2408.5 74.5 782.3 904.9 102.1 -1328.6 20173 5896.4 1544.4 2521.9 2446.2 75.7 794.5 931.9 103.7 -1352.5 20174 5998.5 1566.0 2561.1 2484.3 76.8 806.9 959.2 105.3 -1375.9 20181 6101.6 1587.8 2600.7 2522.7 78.0 819.4 986.8 107.0 -1399.1 20182 6205.7 1609.8 2640.8 2561.5 79.2 832.0 1014.6 108.6 -1422.0 20183 6310.9 1632.0 2681.3 2600.8 80.5 844.7 1042.6 110.3 -1444.3 20184 6417.4 1654.5 2722.4 2640.7 81.7 857.7 1070.8 112.0 -1465.6 20191 6524.9 1677.3 2764.0 2681.0 82.9 870.8 1099.3 113.7 -1486.1 20192 6633.8 1700.3 2806.1 2721.9 84.2 884.1 1127.9 115.4 -1505.8 20193 6744.0 1723.6 2848.9 2763.4 85.5 897.5 1156.7 117.2 -1524.7 20194 6855.7 1747.3 2892.4 2805.7 86.8 911.2 1185.7 119.0 -1542.1 20201 6968.8 1771.3 2936.7 2848.5 88.1 925.2 1214.9 120.8 -1558.4 20202 7083.6 1795.7 2981.6 2892.1 89.5 939.3 1244.3 122.6 -1573.7 20203 7200.0 1820.5 3027.3 2936.5 90.8 953.7 1273.9 124.5 -1587.8 20204 7318.3 1845.6 3074.0 2981.8 92.2 968.5 1303.8 126.4 -1600.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1819.2 252.7 57.4 939.5 21.7 497.9 20093 1831.3 275.2 58.6 941.3 21.9 483.7 20094 1840.2 269.8 61.9 947.4 22.1 487.2 20101 1857.8 275.0 60.7 955.3 22.3 492.1 20102 1880.4 281.5 61.1 964.9 22.6 497.5 20103 1907.0 288.9 61.7 976.5 22.8 503.5 20104 1931.7 296.2 61.0 986.6 23.2 510.4 20111 1958.3 303.6 60.3 998.1 23.5 517.7 20112 1987.5 311.2 60.1 1011.0 23.8 525.4 20113 2019.4 319.2 60.5 1025.2 24.2 533.6 20114 2051.5 327.2 60.6 1039.2 24.6 542.2 20121 2085.0 335.3 60.9 1054.0 25.0 551.2 20122 2120.0 343.5 61.5 1069.6 25.4 560.4 20123 2156.7 352.0 62.3 1086.0 25.9 569.9 20124 2194.6 360.6 63.1 1103.2 26.3 579.7 20131 2232.9 369.1 63.6 1120.9 26.8 589.8 20132 2272.3 377.7 64.4 1139.2 27.2 600.0 20133 2312.9 386.5 65.5 1157.9 27.7 610.4 20134 2354.4 395.5 66.5 1177.2 28.2 621.0 20141 2396.4 404.6 67.5 1196.7 28.7 631.8 20142 2439.0 413.9 68.4 1216.6 29.2 642.7 20143 2482.1 423.1 69.1 1236.9 29.7 653.7 20144 2525.6 432.5 69.9 1257.5 30.2 664.9 20151 2569.5 441.9 70.5 1278.3 30.7 676.3 20152 2613.6 451.3 71.0 1299.2 31.2 687.7 20153 2658.0 460.8 71.5 1320.4 31.7 699.2 20154 2702.8 470.3 72.0 1341.9 32.2 710.8 20161 2747.8 479.8 72.4 1363.4 32.8 722.5 20162 2793.0 489.4 72.8 1385.2 33.3 734.3 20163 2838.6 499.0 73.2 1407.1 33.8 746.1 20164 2884.7 508.7 73.6 1429.3 34.4 758.1 20171 2931.2 518.4 74.0 1451.8 34.9 770.1 20172 2978.2 528.3 74.5 1474.5 35.5 782.3 20173 3025.7 538.2 75.0 1497.5 36.0 794.5 20174 3074.1 548.3 75.6 1520.9 36.6 806.9 20181 3123.0 558.5 76.2 1544.7 37.2 819.4 20182 3172.6 568.9 76.9 1568.7 37.7 832.0 20183 3223.0 579.4 77.7 1593.1 38.3 844.7 20184 3274.7 590.1 78.6 1618.2 38.9 857.7 20191 3327.2 601.0 79.6 1643.7 39.5 870.8 20192 3380.5 612.1 80.7 1669.5 40.1 884.1 20193 3435.0 623.5 81.9 1695.9 40.7 897.5 20194 3490.9 635.1 83.3 1723.0 41.3 911.2 20201 3547.9 647.0 84.8 1750.6 42.0 925.2 20202 3606.0 659.2 86.4 1778.6 42.6 939.3 20203 3665.6 671.7 88.1 1807.3 43.3 953.7 20204 3727.0 684.5 90.0 1837.1 43.9 968.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 0.0 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 0.0 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 0.0 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 0.0 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 0.0 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 0.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 0.0 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 0.0 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 0.0 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 0.0 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 0.0 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 0.0 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 0.0 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 0.0 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 0.0 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 0.0 -36.6 20092 1843.8 1429.9 405.3 3.9 -2.7 4.7 0.0 -24.6 20093 1846.1 1429.8 406.7 5.5 -2.6 4.1 0.0 -14.8 20094 1854.5 1439.7 405.0 6.3 -2.4 3.5 0.0 -14.3 20101 1868.1 1455.6 402.6 6.4 -2.4 3.5 0.0 -10.3 20102 1882.8 1473.1 399.7 6.4 -2.5 3.6 0.0 -2.3 20103 1898.7 1492.3 396.3 6.5 -2.5 3.6 0.0 8.2 20104 1917.3 1512.9 394.1 6.6 -2.5 3.7 0.0 14.4 20111 1938.7 1534.8 393.5 6.7 -2.6 3.7 0.0 19.5 20112 1962.8 1558.0 394.2 6.8 -2.6 3.8 0.0 24.7 20113 1989.1 1582.4 396.0 6.9 -2.6 3.8 0.0 30.3 20114 2017.6 1607.6 399.2 7.0 -2.7 3.9 0.0 33.9 20121 2048.1 1633.6 403.4 7.1 -2.7 4.0 0.0 36.8 20122 2080.2 1660.3 408.6 7.2 -2.8 4.0 0.0 39.8 20123 2113.7 1687.7 414.5 7.4 -2.8 4.1 0.0 43.0 20124 2148.5 1715.7 421.1 7.5 -2.9 4.2 0.0 46.1 20131 2184.5 1744.1 428.5 7.6 -2.9 4.2 0.0 48.4 20132 2221.5 1773.0 436.5 7.8 -3.0 4.3 0.0 50.8 20133 2259.4 1802.2 444.9 7.9 -3.0 4.4 0.0 53.5 20134 2298.1 1831.9 453.8 8.0 -3.1 4.5 0.0 56.3 20141 2337.5 1861.9 462.9 8.2 -3.1 4.5 0.0 58.9 20142 2377.7 1892.2 472.5 8.3 -3.2 4.6 0.0 61.3 20143 2418.6 1922.9 482.5 8.5 -3.2 4.7 0.0 63.5 20144 2460.2 1953.9 492.9 8.6 -3.3 4.8 0.0 65.5 20151 2502.4 1985.1 503.7 8.7 -3.3 4.9 0.0 67.1 20152 2545.3 2016.6 514.9 8.9 -3.4 4.9 0.0 68.3 20153 2588.8 2048.3 526.4 9.0 -3.4 5.0 0.0 69.2 20154 2632.9 2080.2 538.4 9.2 -3.5 5.1 0.0 69.9 20161 2677.5 2112.3 550.7 9.3 -3.6 5.2 0.0 70.3 20162 2722.6 2144.6 563.3 9.5 -3.6 5.3 0.0 70.4 20163 2768.3 2177.1 576.2 9.6 -3.7 5.4 0.0 70.3 20164 2814.4 2209.8 589.3 9.8 -3.7 5.4 0.0 70.3 20171 2861.0 2242.8 602.7 10.0 -3.8 5.5 0.0 70.2 20172 2908.1 2276.0 616.4 10.1 -3.9 5.6 0.0 70.0 20173 2955.8 2309.5 630.3 10.3 -3.9 5.7 0.0 70.0 20174 3003.9 2343.2 644.4 10.4 -4.0 5.8 0.0 70.2 20181 3052.5 2377.3 658.7 10.6 -4.0 5.9 0.0 70.5 20182 3101.8 2411.8 673.2 10.8 -4.1 6.0 0.0 70.8 20183 3151.6 2446.6 687.9 10.9 -4.2 6.1 0.0 71.4 20184 3202.0 2481.9 702.9 11.1 -4.2 6.2 0.0 72.7 20191 3253.1 2517.6 718.0 11.3 -4.3 6.3 0.0 74.0 20192 3304.9 2553.8 733.3 11.4 -4.4 6.4 0.0 75.6 20193 3357.5 2590.5 748.9 11.6 -4.4 6.4 0.0 77.5 20194 3410.8 2627.7 764.7 11.8 -4.5 6.5 0.0 80.1 20201 3464.9 2665.6 780.7 12.0 -4.6 6.6 0.0 83.0 20202 3519.9 2704.0 797.0 12.1 -4.6 6.7 0.0 86.1 20203 3575.8 2743.1 813.6 12.3 -4.7 6.9 0.0 89.7 20204 3632.7 2782.8 830.5 12.5 -4.8 7.0 0.0 94.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2005=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 95.6 96.1 101.4 94.7 95.5 20042 96.4 96.8 101.3 95.6 96.3 20043 97.1 97.4 100.6 96.2 97.2 20044 97.9 98.2 100.7 98.0 97.7 20051 98.8 98.7 100.5 97.9 98.7 20052 99.4 99.4 100.4 98.4 99.5 20053 100.5 100.5 99.6 101.5 100.3 20054 101.3 101.4 99.4 102.2 101.5 20061 102.1 101.8 99.1 102.2 102.2 20062 103.0 102.6 98.7 103.5 103.0 20063 103.8 103.3 98.3 104.6 103.8 20064 104.2 103.3 97.8 102.5 104.6 20071 105.3 104.2 97.4 104.0 105.7 20072 106.0 105.1 97.1 105.7 106.4 20073 106.4 105.7 96.4 106.2 107.3 20074 107.1 107.0 96.0 109.1 108.4 20081 107.6 108.0 96.0 111.2 109.2 20082 108.1 109.0 95.8 112.8 110.3 20083 109.2 110.3 95.5 115.8 111.3 20084 109.2 109.0 94.7 109.0 111.5 20091 109.7 108.6 94.3 106.7 111.7 20092 109.7 109.0 94.4 107.7 112.0 20093 109.8 109.6 93.6 110.2 112.3 20094 109.9 110.3 93.7 111.8 112.9 20101 110.2 110.6 93.9 112.1 113.1 20102 110.6 110.9 94.2 112.5 113.5 20103 111.1 111.4 94.6 113.0 114.0 20104 111.8 112.0 95.1 113.6 114.7 20111 112.6 112.7 95.7 114.3 115.4 20112 113.4 113.4 96.4 115.1 116.2 20113 114.3 114.2 97.1 115.9 117.0 20114 115.3 115.1 97.9 116.9 117.9 20121 116.4 116.0 98.7 117.8 118.9 20122 117.5 117.0 99.5 118.8 119.9 20123 118.6 117.9 100.4 119.8 120.9 20124 119.7 119.0 101.2 120.9 122.0 20131 120.9 120.0 102.1 121.9 123.1 20132 122.1 121.0 103.0 123.0 124.1 20133 123.3 122.1 103.9 124.1 125.2 20134 124.5 123.1 104.8 125.1 126.3 20141 125.7 124.2 105.7 126.2 127.4 20142 127.0 125.3 106.6 127.3 128.5 20143 128.2 126.3 107.5 128.4 129.6 20144 129.4 127.4 108.4 129.5 130.7 20151 130.7 128.4 109.4 130.6 131.8 20152 131.9 129.5 110.2 131.6 132.9 20153 133.1 130.5 111.1 132.7 133.9 20154 134.3 131.5 112.0 133.7 135.0 20161 135.5 132.6 112.9 134.8 136.0 20162 136.7 133.6 113.7 135.8 137.1 20163 137.9 134.5 114.6 136.8 138.1 20164 139.1 135.5 115.4 137.8 139.1 20171 140.3 136.5 116.3 138.8 140.1 20172 141.4 137.5 117.1 139.8 141.1 20173 142.6 138.4 117.9 140.8 142.1 20174 143.7 139.4 118.7 141.7 143.1 20181 144.9 140.3 119.5 142.7 144.0 20182 146.0 141.3 120.3 143.7 145.0 20183 147.2 142.2 121.1 144.6 146.0 20184 148.3 143.2 122.0 145.6 147.0 20191 149.5 144.1 122.8 146.6 147.9 20192 150.7 145.1 123.6 147.5 148.9 20193 151.8 146.1 124.4 148.5 149.9 20194 153.0 147.0 125.2 149.5 150.9 20201 154.2 148.0 126.1 150.5 151.9 20202 155.4 149.0 126.9 151.5 152.9 20203 156.6 150.0 127.7 152.5 153.9 20204 157.9 151.0 128.6 153.5 155.0
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 93.9 95.9 90.5 95.1 92.1 92.8 20042 95.0 96.6 92.4 96.3 93.4 93.9 20043 96.1 97.1 94.3 96.8 94.3 95.0 20044 97.0 97.7 95.8 97.8 96.6 96.4 20051 98.1 98.8 97.0 98.9 97.4 98.2 20052 99.2 99.6 98.6 99.6 98.8 99.2 20053 100.6 100.2 101.2 100.3 100.8 100.7 20054 102.0 101.4 103.1 101.1 102.8 101.9 20061 103.2 102.3 104.9 101.8 103.2 103.2 20062 104.1 103.1 106.0 103.1 104.3 104.6 20063 104.7 103.9 106.4 104.4 105.1 105.4 20064 105.6 104.9 107.2 104.4 103.9 106.1 20071 106.3 105.7 107.6 105.3 104.7 107.9 20072 106.4 106.1 107.3 106.5 106.3 109.1 20073 106.6 106.3 107.4 107.3 107.9 109.8 20074 106.9 106.7 107.7 109.1 113.1 111.3 20081 106.8 106.6 107.2 111.1 117.2 113.0 20082 107.1 107.2 106.7 113.8 123.0 114.7 20083 107.8 108.3 105.7 115.6 125.1 115.9 20084 108.1 109.5 103.1 108.8 112.6 114.1 20091 107.6 109.2 101.8 105.2 103.7 113.8 20092 106.4 108.0 100.4 105.2 104.7 113.9 20093 105.2 106.7 99.8 106.4 107.6 114.2 20094 104.9 106.3 100.3 107.9 111.7 114.7 20101 105.1 106.5 100.5 108.1 112.3 115.5 20102 105.4 106.9 100.9 108.4 112.9 116.3 20103 105.7 107.4 101.3 108.9 113.4 117.3 20104 106.3 108.0 101.9 109.5 114.0 118.3 20111 106.9 108.6 102.5 110.2 114.5 119.5 20112 107.6 109.4 103.2 111.0 115.1 120.8 20113 108.4 110.2 104.0 111.8 115.7 122.1 20114 109.2 111.1 104.8 112.8 116.3 123.5 20121 110.1 112.0 105.7 113.8 116.8 125.0 20122 111.0 112.9 106.6 114.8 117.4 126.5 20123 112.0 113.9 107.5 115.9 118.0 128.0 20124 112.9 114.9 108.4 117.0 118.6 129.6 20131 113.9 115.9 109.4 118.1 119.2 131.2 20132 114.9 116.9 110.3 119.2 119.8 132.8 20133 115.9 117.9 111.3 120.4 120.4 134.4 20134 116.9 118.9 112.2 121.5 121.0 136.0 20141 118.0 120.0 113.2 122.7 121.6 137.7 20142 119.0 121.0 114.2 123.9 122.2 139.3 20143 120.0 122.0 115.2 125.0 122.8 141.0 20144 121.0 123.1 116.1 126.2 123.4 142.6 20151 122.0 124.1 117.1 127.3 124.0 144.3 20152 123.1 125.1 118.1 128.5 124.6 146.0 20153 124.0 126.1 119.0 129.6 125.2 147.6 20154 125.0 127.1 119.9 130.8 125.8 149.3 20161 126.0 128.1 120.9 131.9 126.5 150.9 20162 127.0 129.1 121.8 133.0 127.1 152.6 20163 127.9 130.0 122.7 134.1 127.7 154.2 20164 128.9 131.0 123.6 135.2 128.4 155.9 20171 129.8 131.9 124.5 136.3 129.0 157.5 20172 130.7 132.8 125.4 137.4 129.6 159.2 20173 131.6 133.8 126.3 138.4 130.3 160.8 20174 132.5 134.7 127.1 139.5 130.9 162.5 20181 133.4 135.6 128.0 140.6 131.6 164.1 20182 134.3 136.5 128.9 141.6 132.2 165.8 20183 135.2 137.5 129.7 142.7 132.9 167.4 20184 136.1 138.4 130.6 143.7 133.6 169.1 20191 137.0 139.3 131.5 144.8 134.2 170.8 20192 137.9 140.2 132.3 145.9 134.9 172.5 20193 138.8 141.2 133.2 147.0 135.5 174.2 20194 139.7 142.1 134.1 148.0 136.2 175.9 20201 140.6 143.0 135.0 149.1 136.9 177.7 20202 141.6 144.0 135.9 150.3 137.6 179.5 20203 142.5 144.9 136.8 151.4 138.3 181.3 20204 143.5 145.9 137.7 152.5 138.9 183.1
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment