US Forecast: April 30, 2010
Forecast Period

2010:2--2020:4 (43 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 30, 2010.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2010:1. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: April 30, 2010, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1989:4 and 2007:4 (before the stimulus measures in 2008 and 2009).

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:4-1989:4  

TRGHQ         3.0                  3.9       
COG           3.0                  2.5       
JG            1.0                 -0.7       
TRGSQ         3.0                  5.1       
TRSHQ         6.0                  5.5       
COS           1.5                  3.8       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            8.0                  6.0
PIM           2.0                  1.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGHQ is real federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGSQ is real federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSHQ is real state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator.

All tax rates for the baseline forecast were taken to remain unchanged from their 2010:1 values.

The values for COG were generated off of a base value of $519.3 billion in 2010:1. This base value is $23.8 billion lower that the actual value in 2010:1. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on COG in 2010:1. The values for TRGHQ were generated off of a base value of $1398.8 in 2009:4. This base value is $326.1 billion lower than the actual value in 2010:1. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on TRGHQ in 2010:1.

The above assumptions for state and local governments result in roughly balanced budgets over time in the forecast. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGHQ) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGSQ) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSHQ). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGHQ. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGSQ was increased and then TRSHQ increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGHQ rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGHQ. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGHQ and COG. Consistent with this treatment, in the actual data for 2009:2, $152.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. Similarly, in the actual data for 2009:3, $236.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2009:4, $240.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; and in the actual data for 2010:1, $221 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. These four values are my estimates of how much the stimulus bill affected THG in the four quarters.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGHQ is $336.4 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $93.6 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $10.4 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $10.0 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. (Remember that TRGHQ is in real terms, so these estimates are in 2005 dollars.) For government spending on goods (COG) I have assumed it to be $27.5 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $28.8 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $21.6 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $14.4 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. (Remember that COG is also in real terms.)

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGHQ and COG from their baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGHQ    COG

2010:1  336.4    27.6
2010:2  336.4    27.6
2010:3  336.4    27.2
2010:4   93.6    29.2
2011:1   93.6    28.8
2011:2   93.6    28.8
2011:3   93.6    28.4
2011:4   10.4    22.0
2012:1   10.4    21.6
2012:2   10.4    21.6
2012:3   10.4    21.2
2012:4   10.0    14.4

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. (This variable is in nominal terms.) Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $270.6 billion, the value for 2009:1 is $219.3 billion, the value for 2009:2 is $129.9 billion, the value for 2009:3 is $37.3 billion, the value for 2009:4 is $69.0 billion, and the value for 2010:1 is $58.76 billion (all at annual rates). For the forecast all future values of CTGB were taken to be zero.

The Forecast

The January 30, 2010, forecast of the first quarter of 2010 was quite accurate, and the new forecast values for 2010:2 and on are close to the values predicted in January. There are really no new points to make from those made in January.

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing at 3.6 percent in 2010:2, 4.4 percent in 2010:3, and 3.1 percent in each of 2010:4 and 2011:1. The growth rates generally stay above 3.5 percent through 2014 and then fall to about 3.0 percent after that. (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) The unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent by the end of 2010 and to 7.2 percent by the end of 2011. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs rising by 3 million between 2010:1 and 2011:1.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises to 2.4 percent by the end of 2010. It reaches 4.0 percent in 2013.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be essentially zero for the next two quarters and then begin rising. It is 2.9 percent at the end of 2012.

Federal Government Budget: The federal government budget deficit on a NIPA basis, variable -SGP, is predicted to be about $1.3 trillion in the next two quarters and then about a trillion through 2014. It then increases to $1.4 trillion by 2020. (Again, all values are at annual rates.) The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $20.2 trillion at the end of 2020, which is 68.0 percent of nominal GDP (variable AGZGDP in the model). This is up from 35.4 percent in 2007:1. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, rise from $269.1 billion in 2010:1 to $1.238 trillion in 2020:4 as a result of the increasing debt and rising interest rates.

U.S. Current Account: The U.S. current account deficit, variable SR, is forecast to be about $500 billion for the next few years. It rises to about $750 billion in 2016.

Comments on the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

The main message from the current forecast is that if there are no bad shocks, the economy comes out of the recession slowly but steadily. By the end of 2012 the unemployment rate is down to 6.2 percent. The assumption of no bad shocks, which is used for the forecast, means that stock prices, housing prices, and import prices grow at historically normal rates. There are no negative wealth shocks through falling stock prices and housing prices and no positive price shocks through rapidly rising import prices (due, say, to a depreciating dollar and/or rising dollar oil prices). Asset prices like stock prices, housing prices, exchange rates, and oil prices are essentially unpredictable. In a recent paper Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, I examine the forecastability of recessions and booms under the assumption that asset prices are not forecastable.

Experiments can be run using the model in which stock prices (variable CG), housing prices (variable PSI14), and import prices (variable PIM) are changed. This allows one to examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in asset prices. It may be, for example, that the growing federal government debt triggers a large depreciation of the dollar and possible fall in U.S. equity prices, and this can be analyzed by changing CG and PIM. I have done some experiments like this in another recent paper, Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits. Even though the current forecast looks encouraging for the economy, there is clearly a non trivial probability that bad shocks occur in response to the federal government debt situation. While shocks can't be predicted, the consequences of bad shocks can be analyzed.

To review, oil price shocks and exchange rate shocks are handled through changes in PIM. Housing price changes are handled through changes in PSI14. Changes in PSI14 change PKH relative to PD and thus change housing wealth, PIH*KH. This affects consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3). Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

Regarding the stimulus measures, the key variables are TRGHQ and COG. The key personal income tax rate is D1G. The bailout variable is CTGB.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2005 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 12127.7 2.8 5518.3 3.8 1888.9 3.8 1031.0 4.5 20042 12213.9 2.9 5551.7 2.4 1893.9 1.1 1038.3 2.9 20043 12303.6 3.0 5589.6 2.8 1907.8 3.0 1058.7 8.1 20044 12410.3 3.5 5650.8 4.5 1927.6 4.2 1076.1 6.7 20051 12534.1 4.1 5686.4 2.5 1949.6 4.6 1083.3 2.7 20052 12587.6 1.7 5727.9 3.0 1961.5 2.5 1113.6 11.7 20053 12683.1 3.1 5767.2 2.8 1971.8 2.1 1126.7 4.8 20054 12748.7 2.1 5798.9 2.2 1990.7 3.9 1098.4 -9.7 20061 12915.9 5.4 5841.0 2.9 2003.7 2.6 1142.3 17.0 20062 12962.4 1.4 5884.2 3.0 2011.5 1.6 1139.4 -1.0 20063 12966.0 0.1 5914.3 2.1 2024.5 2.6 1152.1 4.5 20064 13060.6 3.0 5959.4 3.1 2054.7 6.1 1167.9 5.6 20071 13100.0 1.2 6011.7 3.6 2070.3 3.1 1183.7 5.5 20072 13204.0 3.2 6036.3 1.6 2066.1 -0.8 1189.9 2.1 20073 13321.1 3.6 6055.5 1.3 2076.8 2.1 1205.0 5.2 20074 13391.3 2.1 6059.8 0.3 2086.0 1.8 1221.2 5.5 20081 13366.9 -0.7 6087.1 1.8 2070.1 -3.0 1193.2 -8.9 20082 13415.3 1.5 6092.5 0.4 2081.3 2.2 1175.7 -5.7 20083 13324.7 -2.7 6072.4 -1.3 2051.4 -5.6 1139.6 -11.7 20084 13141.9 -5.4 6080.4 0.5 2026.1 -4.8 1076.8 -20.3 20091 12925.4 -6.4 6076.1 -0.3 2035.4 1.8 1087.2 3.9 20092 12901.5 -0.7 6078.8 0.2 2025.7 -1.9 1071.7 -5.6 20093 12973.1 2.2 6090.6 0.8 2033.3 1.5 1122.8 20.5 20094 13149.6 5.6 6105.9 1.0 2053.4 4.0 1123.8 0.4 20101 13254.6 3.2 6142.4 2.4 2073.2 3.9 1154.2 11.3 20102 13370.9 3.6 6169.4 1.8 2081.7 1.6 1164.6 3.7 20103 13516.3 4.4 6197.9 1.9 2089.7 1.5 1181.7 6.0 20104 13619.5 3.1 6219.3 1.4 2095.7 1.2 1184.5 0.9 20111 13722.8 3.1 6243.6 1.6 2103.5 1.5 1195.5 3.8 20112 13848.3 3.7 6270.6 1.7 2113.2 1.9 1212.5 5.8 20113 13996.4 4.3 6300.1 1.9 2124.5 2.2 1233.5 7.1 20114 14131.4 3.9 6328.3 1.8 2135.6 2.1 1250.4 5.6 20121 14270.4 4.0 6357.6 1.9 2147.3 2.2 1271.3 6.8 20122 14417.5 4.2 6388.7 2.0 2159.8 2.3 1294.5 7.5 20123 14569.6 4.3 6423.8 2.2 2172.6 2.4 1317.6 7.3 20124 14716.8 4.1 6465.0 2.6 2185.5 2.4 1338.3 6.4 20131 14848.4 3.6 6510.9 2.9 2198.1 2.3 1356.2 5.5 20132 14985.1 3.7 6560.2 3.1 2210.5 2.3 1373.1 5.1 20133 15124.5 3.8 6612.0 3.2 2222.9 2.3 1389.5 4.9 20134 15262.9 3.7 6666.2 3.3 2235.4 2.3 1405.2 4.6 20141 15398.0 3.6 6721.0 3.3 2248.0 2.3 1421.4 4.7 20142 15529.2 3.5 6776.6 3.3 2260.6 2.3 1437.9 4.7 20143 15656.6 3.3 6833.2 3.4 2273.3 2.3 1454.1 4.6 20144 15780.8 3.2 6892.3 3.5 2286.1 2.3 1469.2 4.2 20151 15902.0 3.1 6951.2 3.5 2298.9 2.3 1484.9 4.3 20152 16020.2 3.0 7010.2 3.4 2311.9 2.3 1500.9 4.4 20153 16136.3 2.9 7070.2 3.5 2325.0 2.3 1516.5 4.2 20154 16251.2 2.9 7132.6 3.6 2338.2 2.3 1530.8 3.8 20161 16365.1 2.8 7194.7 3.5 2351.6 2.3 1545.9 4.0 20162 16478.1 2.8 7256.6 3.5 2365.3 2.3 1561.5 4.1 20163 16590.8 2.8 7319.4 3.5 2379.2 2.4 1577.1 4.0 20164 16704.6 2.8 7385.1 3.6 2393.3 2.4 1591.4 3.7 20171 16819.1 2.8 7450.5 3.6 2407.7 2.4 1606.6 3.9 20172 16934.6 2.8 7516.6 3.6 2422.3 2.5 1622.2 3.9 20173 17051.6 2.8 7584.3 3.7 2437.1 2.5 1637.4 3.8 20174 17171.1 2.8 7655.6 3.8 2452.1 2.5 1651.2 3.4 20181 17292.4 2.9 7726.5 3.8 2467.4 2.5 1666.0 3.6 20182 17415.5 2.9 7798.1 3.8 2482.8 2.5 1681.2 3.7 20183 17541.0 2.9 7871.8 3.8 2498.3 2.5 1696.0 3.6 20184 17670.2 3.0 7950.3 4.0 2513.9 2.5 1708.7 3.0 20191 17802.0 3.0 8028.3 4.0 2529.7 2.5 1722.8 3.3 20192 17936.1 3.0 8106.5 4.0 2545.7 2.6 1737.9 3.5 20193 18072.9 3.1 8186.4 4.0 2561.9 2.6 1752.8 3.5 20194 18213.8 3.2 8271.6 4.2 2578.1 2.6 1765.6 2.9 20201 18357.6 3.2 8356.0 4.1 2594.4 2.6 1779.9 3.3 20202 18503.8 3.2 8441.0 4.1 2610.9 2.6 1795.0 3.4 20203 18653.0 3.3 8528.6 4.2 2627.5 2.6 1809.6 3.3 20204 18806.7 3.3 8623.0 4.5 2643.9 2.5 1821.3 2.6
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 625.3 13.6 970.2 -6.8 52.4 1829.8 10.6 20042 644.9 13.1 996.4 11.2 78.7 1903.1 17.0 20043 647.9 1.9 1023.6 11.4 62.7 1930.7 5.9 20044 654.4 4.1 1046.1 9.1 71.6 1979.7 10.5 20051 670.8 10.4 1078.2 12.8 91.4 1991.0 2.3 20052 685.9 9.3 1093.9 6.0 15.5 2012.9 4.5 20053 690.7 2.9 1109.4 5.8 11.8 2025.2 2.5 20054 690.4 -0.2 1114.8 2.0 81.0 2082.0 11.7 20061 685.3 -3.0 1177.8 24.6 65.8 2121.3 7.8 20062 653.3 -17.4 1197.9 7.0 72.5 2144.9 4.5 20063 621.8 -17.9 1210.5 4.3 67.5 2170.6 4.9 20064 580.0 -24.3 1217.2 2.2 31.8 2168.1 -0.5 20071 550.0 -19.2 1221.6 1.5 14.5 2190.9 4.3 20072 526.9 -15.8 1254.6 11.2 23.3 2188.1 -0.5 20073 452.3 -45.7 1283.3 9.5 29.8 2208.4 3.8 20074 452.6 0.2 1304.0 6.6 10.3 2188.0 -3.6 20081 407.3 -34.4 1318.6 4.6 0.6 2174.3 -2.5 20082 390.4 -15.6 1322.8 1.3 -37.1 2146.5 -5.0 20083 372.9 -16.7 1301.9 -6.2 -29.7 2134.4 -2.2 20084 346.3 -25.6 1233.0 -19.6 -37.4 2038.9 -16.7 20091 309.1 -36.6 1089.1 -39.1 -113.9 1821.0 -36.4 20092 287.3 -25.3 1062.2 -9.5 -160.2 1749.8 -14.7 20093 299.9 18.8 1046.5 -5.8 -139.2 1836.3 21.3 20094 302.8 3.8 1059.9 5.2 -19.7 1904.8 15.8 20101 294.1 -11.0 1070.5 4.0 31.1 1945.8 8.9 20102 315.7 32.8 1074.6 1.6 28.4 1958.0 2.5 20103 349.9 50.9 1100.0 9.8 37.0 1976.7 3.9 20104 359.0 10.9 1119.9 7.4 54.5 1995.5 3.9 20111 382.7 29.0 1139.9 7.3 49.0 2017.2 4.4 20112 415.3 38.8 1168.7 10.5 41.3 2043.9 5.4 20113 452.7 41.2 1205.2 13.1 41.3 2076.5 6.5 20114 479.8 26.2 1241.4 12.6 53.1 2112.6 7.1 20121 510.3 27.9 1281.6 13.6 53.1 2152.7 7.8 20122 542.1 27.3 1327.2 15.0 52.9 2197.2 8.5 20123 573.6 25.4 1375.8 15.5 55.0 2246.2 9.2 20124 603.7 22.7 1424.5 14.9 59.0 2299.2 9.8 20131 629.8 18.5 1470.8 13.7 62.1 2355.0 10.1 20132 653.7 16.1 1518.3 13.6 56.4 2413.4 10.3 20133 675.3 13.9 1566.1 13.2 54.8 2474.1 10.4 20134 694.7 12.0 1612.3 12.3 55.2 2536.5 10.5 20141 712.0 10.3 1656.7 11.5 55.5 2600.2 10.4 20142 727.2 8.8 1699.0 10.6 55.1 2664.8 10.3 20143 740.4 7.5 1738.6 9.7 54.0 2729.8 10.1 20144 751.8 6.3 1775.3 8.7 52.5 2794.9 9.9 20151 761.6 5.3 1808.6 7.7 51.0 2859.7 9.6 20152 770.1 4.5 1838.4 6.8 49.5 2923.9 9.3 20153 777.3 3.8 1864.7 5.8 48.0 2987.2 8.9 20154 783.6 3.3 1887.5 5.0 46.5 3049.5 8.6 20161 789.0 2.8 1907.0 4.2 45.4 3110.7 8.3 20162 793.9 2.5 1923.1 3.4 44.6 3170.7 7.9 20163 798.2 2.2 1936.2 2.7 43.8 3229.4 7.6 20164 802.2 2.0 1946.5 2.2 43.0 3287.1 7.3 20171 806.0 1.9 1954.3 1.6 42.8 3343.7 7.1 20172 809.7 1.9 1959.8 1.1 42.8 3399.4 6.8 20173 813.4 1.8 1963.5 0.7 42.8 3454.3 6.6 20174 817.1 1.8 1965.7 0.5 42.8 3508.8 6.5 20181 820.9 1.9 1966.7 0.2 43.4 3563.0 6.3 20182 824.9 2.0 1966.7 0.0 43.9 3617.0 6.2 20183 829.1 2.0 1966.3 -0.1 44.4 3671.2 6.1 20184 833.4 2.1 1965.9 -0.1 44.8 3725.8 6.1 20191 838.0 2.2 1965.6 -0.1 45.8 3781.2 6.1 20192 842.8 2.3 1965.7 0.0 46.8 3837.3 6.1 20193 847.9 2.4 1966.4 0.2 47.6 3894.5 6.1 20194 853.2 2.5 1968.4 0.4 48.2 3953.3 6.2 20201 858.8 2.7 1971.6 0.6 49.4 4013.7 6.2 20202 864.7 2.8 1975.9 0.9 50.6 4075.8 6.3 20203 870.8 2.9 1981.8 1.2 51.5 4139.9 6.4 20204 877.2 2.9 1989.6 1.6 52.0 4206.5 6.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.5 2.5 1.5 -1.0 20042 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.5 20043 2.9 3.7 5.8 1.9 20044 3.0 2.9 3.5 0.6 20051 3.8 3.3 -0.7 -3.9 20052 2.7 2.7 3.0 0.2 20053 4.2 4.6 7.5 2.8 20054 3.4 3.4 1.2 -2.2 20061 3.0 2.6 8.2 5.4 20062 3.6 3.9 0.9 -2.9 20063 3.1 2.6 2.0 -0.6 20064 1.8 1.3 7.4 6.0 20071 4.3 3.4 3.2 -0.2 20072 2.7 2.7 0.3 -2.3 20073 1.7 1.5 4.0 2.5 20074 2.4 2.0 6.0 3.9 20081 2.0 1.7 1.5 -0.2 20082 1.8 2.4 1.8 -0.6 20083 4.1 4.5 7.5 2.9 20084 0.0 0.6 7.6 7.0 20091 1.9 2.4 -5.6 -7.8 20092 0.0 -0.2 5.7 5.9 20093 0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.4 20094 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 20101 0.9 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 20102 1.5 1.2 4.4 3.1 20103 1.8 1.7 4.7 3.0 20104 2.4 2.1 5.0 2.8 20111 2.6 2.5 5.3 2.7 20112 2.9 2.8 5.5 2.6 20113 3.1 3.1 5.7 2.5 20114 3.4 3.3 5.9 2.5 20121 3.6 3.5 6.0 2.4 20122 3.7 3.7 6.1 2.3 20123 3.9 3.8 6.2 2.3 20124 4.0 3.9 6.2 2.2 20131 4.1 4.0 6.2 2.2 20132 4.1 4.0 6.2 2.1 20133 4.1 4.0 6.2 2.1 20134 4.1 4.0 6.2 2.1 20141 4.1 4.0 6.1 2.1 20142 4.1 4.0 6.1 2.0 20143 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 20144 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.0 20151 3.9 3.8 5.9 2.0 20152 3.9 3.7 5.8 2.0 20153 3.8 3.6 5.7 2.0 20154 3.7 3.5 5.6 2.0 20161 3.6 3.5 5.6 2.0 20162 3.6 3.4 5.5 2.0 20163 3.5 3.3 5.4 2.0 20164 3.4 3.3 5.3 2.0 20171 3.4 3.2 5.3 2.0 20172 3.3 3.1 5.2 2.0 20173 3.3 3.1 5.2 2.0 20174 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0 20181 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20182 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20183 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20184 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20191 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20192 3.1 3.0 5.0 2.0 20193 3.1 3.0 5.1 2.0 20194 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20201 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20202 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20203 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0 20204 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1487.9 6.1 73.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1501.9 3.8 78.2 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.7 6.8 73.7 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.5 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1545.8 -2.3 74.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1551.8 1.6 73.4 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1548.4 -0.9 70.2 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 1.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1567.1 3.5 68.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1561.2 -1.5 68.7 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1542.7 -4.7 65.7 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -0.9 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1556.4 4.5 67.3 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1537.8 -4.7 66.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1521.8 -4.1 73.4 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1549.6 7.5 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1549.0 -0.2 -34.3 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1560.1 2.9 -89.9 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1685.4 36.2 78.2 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1808.1 32.5 369.1 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1769.2 -8.3 302.8 20092 0.2 5.5 5.0 1843.2 17.8 376.8 20093 0.2 5.3 5.2 1901.0 13.1 686.4 20094 0.1 5.2 4.9 1973.9 16.3 912.7 20101 0.1 5.3 5.0 1991.9 3.7 900.0 20102 0.3 5.2 4.8 2001.8 2.0 750.0 20103 0.5 5.0 4.7 2012.0 2.0 600.0 20104 0.8 4.9 4.7 2022.8 2.2 400.0 20111 1.1 4.8 4.7 2034.1 2.2 200.0 20112 1.3 4.8 4.7 2045.8 2.3 100.0 20113 1.6 4.7 4.8 2058.0 2.4 100.0 20114 1.9 4.8 4.9 2070.8 2.5 100.0 20121 2.1 4.8 5.0 2084.0 2.6 100.0 20122 2.4 4.8 5.1 2097.7 2.7 100.0 20123 2.7 4.9 5.2 2112.1 2.8 100.0 20124 2.9 5.0 5.4 2127.0 2.9 100.0 20131 3.1 5.1 5.5 2142.5 3.0 100.0 20132 3.3 5.1 5.7 2158.7 3.1 100.0 20133 3.5 5.2 5.8 2175.5 3.1 100.0 20134 3.6 5.3 6.0 2192.9 3.2 100.0 20141 3.7 5.4 6.1 2210.9 3.3 100.0 20142 3.9 5.5 6.3 2229.5 3.4 100.0 20143 3.9 5.6 6.4 2248.7 3.5 100.0 20144 4.0 5.7 6.5 2268.6 3.6 100.0 20151 4.1 5.7 6.6 2289.0 3.7 100.0 20152 4.1 5.8 6.7 2310.0 3.7 100.0 20153 4.1 5.9 6.7 2331.6 3.8 100.0 20154 4.1 5.9 6.8 2353.8 3.9 100.0 20161 4.1 6.0 6.9 2376.5 3.9 100.0 20162 4.1 6.0 6.9 2399.8 4.0 100.0 20163 4.1 6.0 6.9 2423.6 4.0 100.0 20164 4.1 6.1 7.0 2448.0 4.1 100.0 20171 4.0 6.1 7.0 2472.8 4.1 100.0 20172 4.0 6.1 7.0 2498.2 4.2 100.0 20173 4.0 6.1 7.0 2524.1 4.2 100.0 20174 4.0 6.1 7.0 2550.4 4.2 100.0 20181 4.0 6.1 7.0 2577.3 4.3 100.0 20182 3.9 6.2 7.0 2604.6 4.3 100.0 20183 3.9 6.2 7.0 2632.4 4.3 100.0 20184 3.9 6.2 7.0 2660.7 4.4 100.0 20191 3.9 6.2 7.0 2689.5 4.4 100.0 20192 3.9 6.2 7.0 2718.7 4.4 100.0 20193 4.0 6.2 7.0 2748.4 4.4 100.0 20194 4.0 6.2 7.0 2778.6 4.5 100.0 20201 4.0 6.2 7.0 2809.2 4.5 100.0 20202 4.0 6.2 7.1 2840.3 4.5 100.0 20203 4.1 6.3 7.1 2871.9 4.5 100.0 20204 4.1 6.3 7.1 2903.9 4.5 100.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.1 0.1 5.2 0.9 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 1.1 -0.2 2.5 2.0 1.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.3 0.0 4.2 1.5 1.3 7.9 20051 5.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.0 7.8 20052 5.1 0.8 0.7 5.4 2.1 2.9 7.6 20053 5.0 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 7.4 20054 5.0 -0.7 0.7 2.5 1.4 0.8 7.4 20061 4.7 2.0 1.0 1.6 3.0 2.5 7.1 20062 4.7 0.1 0.1 4.3 1.7 1.7 7.0 20063 4.6 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.2 7.0 20064 4.5 1.6 0.1 4.1 1.3 2.7 6.8 20071 4.5 3.0 -0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 6.8 20072 4.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 -0.8 6.8 20073 4.7 -0.8 1.5 1.9 -0.8 0.0 7.1 20074 4.8 0.8 0.3 2.8 0.7 0.6 7.4 20081 5.0 1.4 1.4 4.4 -0.7 1.8 7.6 20082 5.3 -1.0 1.5 2.5 -1.2 -0.6 8.2 20083 6.0 1.1 -0.5 1.9 -2.9 -2.2 9.3 20084 6.9 -1.6 0.5 1.9 -6.4 -3.6 10.7 20091 8.2 -2.2 -0.2 2.9 -6.8 -5.2 12.6 20092 9.3 2.1 0.6 1.7 -5.5 -3.1 14.3 20093 9.7 0.7 -2.2 -3.2 -3.3 -3.1 14.9 20094 10.0 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -3.4 15.4 20101 9.7 -2.5 0.7 4.0 0.6 2.1 14.9 20102 9.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.8 14.4 20103 9.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 2.6 2.4 13.8 20104 8.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 2.7 2.4 13.2 20111 8.2 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.7 2.3 12.7 20112 7.9 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.8 2.3 12.2 20113 7.6 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.0 2.4 11.7 20114 7.2 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.0 2.3 11.3 20121 7.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.9 2.3 10.9 20122 6.7 0.2 0.8 2.4 2.9 2.2 10.5 20123 6.5 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.0 2.2 10.1 20124 6.2 0.2 0.8 2.6 2.9 2.1 9.8 20131 6.1 0.2 0.8 2.7 2.7 2.0 9.6 20132 5.9 0.2 0.8 2.8 2.6 1.9 9.4 20133 5.8 0.2 0.8 2.8 2.5 1.8 9.2 20134 5.7 0.2 0.8 2.9 2.4 1.7 9.1 20141 5.6 0.2 0.8 2.9 2.3 1.7 9.0 20142 5.6 0.2 0.8 2.9 2.1 1.6 8.9 20143 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 8.9 20144 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 1.9 1.4 8.9 20151 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 1.7 1.3 8.9 20152 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 1.6 1.3 8.9 20153 5.5 0.1 0.8 2.9 1.5 1.2 9.0 20154 5.5 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.4 1.1 9.0 20161 5.6 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.3 1.1 9.1 20162 5.6 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.2 1.0 9.2 20163 5.6 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.1 1.0 9.3 20164 5.7 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.1 1.0 9.4 20171 5.7 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.0 1.0 9.5 20172 5.7 -0.1 0.7 2.6 1.0 1.0 9.5 20173 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.5 1.0 1.0 9.6 20174 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.5 1.0 1.0 9.7 20181 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.5 1.0 1.0 9.7 20182 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.4 1.0 1.0 9.8 20183 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.4 1.0 1.0 9.8 20184 5.8 -0.1 0.7 2.4 1.1 1.1 9.8 20191 5.8 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.1 1.1 9.8 20192 5.8 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.2 1.1 9.8 20193 5.8 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.2 1.1 9.8 20194 5.7 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.2 1.2 9.8 20201 5.7 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.3 1.2 9.7 20202 5.6 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.3 1.2 9.7 20203 5.6 -0.1 0.6 2.4 1.4 1.2 9.6 20204 5.5 -0.1 0.5 2.4 1.4 1.3 9.6
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2634.8 791.3 94.6 3.2 1.1 540.6 -409.5 -22.8 20042 887.3 858.0 38.3 3.7 3.4 618.8 -384.5 -20.9 20043 -208.5 916.9 30.4 3.4 3.7 636.8 -361.5 -3.6 20044 8203.5 902.1 -6.3 3.6 -1.2 719.7 -362.3 13.7 20051 1064.9 1133.1 148.9 1.6 1.9 699.0 -289.0 25.1 20052 3134.2 1177.1 16.5 1.3 1.0 708.6 -288.3 18.9 20053 5451.4 1175.3 -0.6 1.2 6.5 739.4 -287.5 25.4 20054 3933.4 1300.5 49.9 1.5 -1.6 833.7 -267.5 34.5 20061 7243.7 1348.9 15.7 2.2 -0.6 794.3 -207.2 62.4 20062 -1576.4 1352.1 0.9 2.5 0.7 815.6 -229.5 63.2 20063 3187.4 1430.5 25.3 2.3 -0.8 858.0 -215.6 42.3 20064 7485.5 1368.1 -16.3 2.6 1.8 744.3 -162.9 35.9 20071 3344.8 1363.3 -1.4 2.1 2.9 804.2 -201.1 32.8 20072 5562.1 1402.1 11.9 1.8 2.1 767.3 -221.2 35.1 20073 936.5 1380.1 -6.1 1.6 6.7 689.6 -258.9 20.3 20074 -3563.5 1480.6 32.4 1.5 4.8 656.7 -265.0 -1.3 20081 -8124.7 1272.8 -45.4 1.2 -3.0 722.5 -433.6 -20.2 20082 -3744.2 1262.5 -3.2 3.5 3.9 758.4 -797.1 -25.5 20083 -9879.0 1279.3 5.4 2.2 2.9 742.1 -665.9 -59.2 20084 -16897.0 929.9 -72.1 3.9 6.9 626.0 -674.1 -56.1 20091 -6169.0 992.8 29.9 3.8 -2.8 414.7 -969.1 -36.6 20092 7109.8 1056.3 28.1 5.6 5.3 394.6 -1268.8 -24.6 20093 9201.5 1132.7 32.2 4.0 5.3 430.5 -1353.5 -14.8 20094 2283.3 1203.9 27.6 4.0 6.3 480.8 -1307.2 -0.5 20101 2160.0 1434.5 101.6 3.1 1.8 553.3 -1311.4 12.1 20102 -462.0 1253.5 -41.7 4.0 0.9 540.3 -1320.9 -54.8 20103 1644.7 1251.2 -0.7 4.6 1.0 531.8 -1328.5 -46.1 20104 1275.8 1219.5 -9.8 3.1 -0.2 521.0 -1076.7 -40.7 20111 1303.3 1191.9 -8.7 3.8 0.0 511.1 -1093.3 -35.5 20112 1518.5 1185.8 -2.0 4.4 0.6 504.6 -1103.0 -29.8 20113 1692.7 1198.9 4.5 4.9 1.2 502.9 -1104.3 -23.4 20114 1570.1 1204.0 1.7 4.7 0.9 503.0 -1005.5 -19.0 20121 1624.1 1214.6 3.6 5.2 1.1 505.9 -1008.3 -14.7 20122 1705.4 1233.2 6.3 5.6 1.3 512.3 -1010.2 -10.4 20123 1749.8 1256.8 7.9 6.0 1.5 522.0 -1011.1 -5.8 20124 1707.2 1277.1 6.6 6.3 1.4 534.9 -1005.6 -1.6 20131 1600.4 1286.6 3.0 6.5 1.2 549.7 -983.5 1.6 20132 1713.8 1304.2 5.6 6.7 1.5 566.3 -990.2 4.6 20133 1771.9 1325.3 6.7 6.9 1.6 584.3 -997.1 7.6 20134 1788.6 1346.4 6.5 7.1 1.7 603.2 -1004.9 10.3 20141 1787.5 1365.0 5.7 7.3 1.7 622.6 -1014.3 12.6 20142 1790.0 1381.0 4.8 7.5 1.7 641.9 -1025.3 14.5 20143 1799.3 1394.6 4.0 7.6 1.7 660.6 -1038.2 15.9 20144 1820.7 1406.5 3.5 7.7 1.7 678.5 -1052.6 16.9 20151 1841.2 1416.6 2.9 7.8 1.7 694.9 -1068.6 17.4 20152 1867.3 1425.0 2.4 7.9 1.7 709.7 -1086.1 17.5 20153 1902.8 1432.3 2.1 8.0 1.8 722.3 -1104.9 17.2 20154 1950.0 1439.6 2.1 8.0 1.8 732.8 -1124.6 16.7 20161 1991.8 1446.5 1.9 8.1 1.9 740.8 -1145.2 15.9 20162 2036.3 1453.0 1.8 8.1 1.9 746.1 -1166.4 14.8 20163 2088.1 1459.8 1.9 8.2 1.9 748.7 -1188.1 13.6 20164 2152.5 1468.2 2.3 8.2 1.9 748.7 -1209.9 12.5 20171 2207.8 1477.5 2.6 8.2 2.0 746.1 -1231.6 11.4 20172 2265.5 1488.0 2.9 8.2 2.0 740.8 -1253.2 10.4 20173 2329.2 1500.3 3.3 8.2 2.0 733.1 -1274.3 9.5 20174 2403.0 1515.4 4.1 8.2 2.0 723.1 -1294.8 9.0 20181 2462.6 1532.3 4.5 8.2 2.0 710.9 -1314.6 8.6 20182 2523.1 1551.2 5.0 8.1 2.0 696.7 -1333.7 8.5 20183 2591.5 1572.7 5.7 8.1 2.0 680.6 -1351.9 8.7 20184 2674.7 1598.5 6.7 8.1 2.1 663.0 -1368.9 9.5 20191 2736.0 1626.7 7.2 8.0 2.1 644.1 -1384.7 10.5 20192 2794.3 1657.1 7.7 8.0 2.1 623.9 -1399.4 11.9 20193 2860.3 1690.5 8.3 8.0 2.1 602.7 -1413.0 13.6 20194 2944.6 1728.5 9.3 7.9 2.1 580.9 -1425.1 16.0 20201 3002.1 1769.0 9.7 7.8 2.1 558.5 -1435.8 18.8 20202 3057.9 1811.7 10.0 7.8 2.0 535.7 -1445.3 21.8 20203 3123.1 1857.4 10.5 7.7 2.0 512.7 -1453.6 25.3 20204 3211.4 1908.4 11.4 7.7 2.1 490.0 -1460.1 29.7
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 8.9 -0.9 9.8 987.4 8.4 9.1 20042 5.0 1.1 6.4 995.9 3.5 5.7 20043 12.9 -5.7 3.0 1004.8 3.6 4.2 20044 -11.8 -4.7 9.4 1017.2 5.0 10.0 20051 2.8 -2.5 7.6 1045.7 11.7 3.5 20052 1.9 0.6 8.8 1055.0 3.6 5.7 20053 20.6 -1.5 0.1 1069.4 5.6 8.5 20054 -13.9 3.9 10.4 1082.2 4.9 8.1 20061 28.4 -2.5 16.5 1138.5 22.5 1.6 20062 -6.6 6.0 6.9 1161.7 8.4 4.3 20063 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 1170.2 3.0 3.1 20064 2.1 -0.4 17.8 1183.8 4.7 -4.6 20071 -9.0 5.7 3.5 1209.1 8.8 3.2 20072 15.6 3.7 5.2 1228.2 6.5 6.3 20073 14.6 1.0 18.5 1245.0 5.6 6.1 20074 3.5 -0.3 14.5 1259.9 4.9 20.4 20081 11.6 -5.5 -0.1 1294.4 11.4 15.4 20082 11.0 1.3 12.1 1630.7 151.9 21.3 20083 19.5 -1.9 -3.6 1419.9 -42.5 7.1 20084 6.9 -6.1 -19.4 1387.9 -8.7 -34.3 20091 -11.7 -4.0 -29.9 1469.9 25.8 -28.2 20092 14.4 11.8 -4.1 1763.0 106.9 4.2 20093 8.9 1.4 17.8 1841.4 19.0 11.4 20094 -4.1 -6.5 22.8 1861.6 4.5 16.5 20101 -1.7 -9.6 5.8 1900.2 8.6 9.1 20102 5.8 13.3 8.0 1930.0 6.4 2.0 20103 2.6 1.5 8.0 1950.2 4.3 2.0 20104 4.3 1.5 8.0 1702.2 -42.0 2.0 20111 2.6 1.5 8.0 1725.2 5.5 2.0 20112 2.8 1.5 8.0 1749.6 5.8 2.0 20113 2.6 1.5 8.0 1775.5 6.0 2.0 20114 -1.7 1.5 8.0 1707.1 -14.5 2.0 20121 2.6 1.5 8.0 1734.9 6.7 2.0 20122 2.9 1.5 8.0 1763.7 6.8 2.0 20123 2.6 1.5 8.0 1793.6 6.9 2.0 20124 -1.8 1.5 8.0 1824.0 7.0 2.0 20131 -6.9 1.5 8.0 1843.8 4.4 2.0 20132 3.0 1.5 8.0 1876.3 7.2 2.0 20133 3.0 1.5 8.0 1909.4 7.3 2.0 20134 3.0 1.5 8.0 1943.2 7.3 2.0 20141 3.0 1.5 8.0 1977.4 7.2 2.0 20142 3.0 1.5 8.0 2012.1 7.2 2.0 20143 3.0 1.5 8.0 2047.2 7.2 2.0 20144 3.0 1.5 8.0 2082.7 7.1 2.0 20151 3.0 1.5 8.0 2118.4 7.0 2.0 20152 3.0 1.5 8.0 2154.4 7.0 2.0 20153 3.0 1.5 8.0 2190.6 6.9 2.0 20154 3.0 1.5 8.0 2227.1 6.8 2.0 20161 3.0 1.5 8.0 2263.7 6.7 2.0 20162 3.0 1.5 8.0 2300.5 6.7 2.0 20163 3.0 1.5 8.0 2337.4 6.6 2.0 20164 3.0 1.5 8.0 2374.6 6.5 2.0 20171 3.0 1.5 8.0 2412.1 6.5 2.0 20172 3.0 1.5 8.0 2449.8 6.4 2.0 20173 3.0 1.5 8.0 2487.8 6.4 2.0 20174 3.0 1.5 8.0 2526.2 6.3 2.0 20181 3.0 1.5 8.0 2565.0 6.3 2.0 20182 3.0 1.5 8.0 2604.2 6.3 2.0 20183 3.0 1.5 8.0 2643.9 6.2 2.0 20184 3.0 1.5 8.0 2684.2 6.2 2.0 20191 3.0 1.5 8.0 2725.0 6.2 2.0 20192 3.0 1.5 8.0 2766.4 6.2 2.0 20193 3.0 1.5 8.0 2808.5 6.2 2.0 20194 3.0 1.5 8.0 2851.4 6.2 2.0 20201 3.0 1.5 8.0 2895.0 6.3 2.0 20202 3.0 1.5 8.0 2939.3 6.3 2.0 20203 3.0 1.5 8.0 2984.5 6.3 2.0 20204 3.0 1.5 8.0 3030.6 6.3 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2203.4 900.3 192.0 91.8 953.0 20092 2339.4 981.9 223.8 97.8 954.3 20093 2372.8 1031.8 238.1 98.6 945.7 20094 2417.1 1031.8 270.2 103.1 947.6 20101 2507.1 1088.1 291.9 104.9 967.6 20102 2527.5 1117.5 262.8 105.7 986.2 20103 2584.8 1151.0 263.1 106.8 1008.0 20104 2637.3 1184.4 258.6 107.7 1030.0 20111 2692.1 1218.6 254.9 108.8 1052.4 20112 2752.8 1253.9 254.8 110.1 1075.8 20113 2819.9 1290.6 257.8 111.6 1100.8 20114 2886.5 1327.7 259.6 113.0 1126.1 20121 2955.6 1365.6 262.4 114.6 1151.9 20122 3028.1 1404.8 266.5 116.4 1178.4 20123 3103.5 1445.2 271.4 118.2 1205.5 20124 3179.4 1486.2 275.9 120.1 1233.0 20131 3252.7 1526.7 278.6 122.1 1260.0 20132 3328.1 1567.7 282.7 124.2 1287.0 20133 3404.8 1609.3 287.4 126.3 1314.3 20134 3482.3 1651.3 292.0 128.4 1341.6 20141 3559.6 1693.6 296.4 130.6 1368.9 20142 3636.5 1736.1 300.2 132.9 1396.0 20143 3712.9 1778.6 303.8 135.1 1422.8 20144 3788.7 1821.1 307.0 137.4 1449.4 20151 3864.0 1863.6 310.0 139.7 1475.7 20152 3938.6 1905.9 312.6 142.0 1501.7 20153 4012.8 1948.3 315.2 144.3 1527.5 20154 4086.8 1990.6 317.7 146.6 1553.0 20161 4160.6 2033.0 320.1 149.0 1578.3 20162 4234.3 2075.5 322.6 151.3 1603.5 20163 4308.3 2118.1 325.0 153.7 1628.6 20164 4382.8 2161.1 327.8 156.1 1653.7 20171 4458.1 2204.5 330.6 158.5 1679.0 20172 4534.2 2248.3 333.7 161.0 1704.4 20173 4611.5 2292.7 337.1 163.4 1730.0 20174 4690.3 2337.8 341.0 166.0 1756.0 20181 4770.7 2383.7 345.2 168.5 1782.3 20182 4852.6 2430.4 349.7 171.1 1809.1 20183 4936.6 2478.1 354.7 173.7 1836.4 20184 5023.0 2526.8 360.4 176.4 1864.2 20191 5111.7 2576.7 366.5 179.2 1892.7 20192 5202.7 2627.8 373.1 182.0 1921.9 20193 5296.2 2680.1 380.1 184.8 1951.7 20194 5392.9 2733.9 387.9 187.8 1982.3 20201 5492.3 2789.1 396.1 190.8 2013.8 20202 5594.6 2845.9 404.8 193.8 2046.0 20203 5699.8 2904.2 413.9 196.9 2079.1 20204 5808.7 2964.2 424.0 200.1 2113.1
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2314.1 706.4 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3172.5 954.2 1469.9 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -969.1 20092 3608.2 979.1 1763.0 55.5 497.9 253.7 59.0 -1268.8 20093 3726.3 1001.2 1841.4 59.0 483.7 271.0 70.0 -1353.5 20094 3724.3 1011.0 1861.6 41.8 487.2 259.4 63.3 -1307.2 20101 3818.5 1025.1 1900.2 58.7 503.0 269.1 62.4 -1311.4 20102 3848.3 1040.7 1930.0 59.4 461.3 293.9 63.1 -1320.9 20103 3913.2 1052.9 1950.2 60.1 466.8 319.5 63.8 -1328.5 20104 3714.1 1068.6 1702.2 60.9 473.0 344.8 64.7 -1076.7 20111 3785.4 1082.6 1725.2 61.7 479.6 370.6 65.6 -1093.3 20112 3855.7 1097.8 1749.6 62.6 486.6 392.4 66.6 -1103.0 20113 3924.2 1113.5 1775.5 63.6 494.0 410.1 67.6 -1104.3 20114 3892.0 1122.9 1707.1 64.6 501.9 426.8 68.6 -1005.5 20121 3963.8 1139.9 1734.9 65.6 510.1 443.6 69.8 -1008.3 20122 4038.3 1157.8 1763.7 66.7 518.6 460.6 70.9 -1010.2 20123 4114.6 1175.9 1793.6 67.9 527.4 477.8 72.1 -1011.1 20124 4184.9 1186.8 1824.0 69.0 536.5 495.2 73.4 -1005.6 20131 4236.2 1188.9 1843.8 70.2 545.9 512.7 74.7 -983.5 20132 4318.3 1208.4 1876.3 71.5 555.5 530.7 76.0 -990.2 20133 4402.0 1228.1 1909.4 72.7 565.3 549.1 77.3 -997.1 20134 4487.2 1248.1 1943.2 74.0 575.3 567.9 78.7 -1004.9 20141 4573.8 1268.3 1977.4 75.3 585.4 587.3 80.1 -1014.3 20142 4661.8 1288.6 2012.1 76.6 595.7 607.3 81.5 -1025.3 20143 4751.0 1309.1 2047.2 78.0 606.1 627.7 82.9 -1038.2 20144 4841.3 1329.8 2082.7 79.3 616.6 648.6 84.3 -1052.6 20151 4932.6 1350.5 2118.4 80.7 627.2 670.0 85.8 -1068.6 20152 5024.8 1371.3 2154.4 82.1 637.8 691.9 87.2 -1086.1 20153 5117.7 1392.1 2190.6 83.5 648.6 714.2 88.7 -1104.9 20154 5211.4 1413.0 2227.1 84.8 659.4 737.0 90.2 -1124.6 20161 5305.8 1433.9 2263.7 86.2 670.2 760.0 91.7 -1145.2 20162 5400.7 1454.9 2300.5 87.6 681.1 783.5 93.2 -1166.4 20163 5496.4 1476.0 2337.4 89.0 692.0 807.2 94.7 -1188.1 20164 5592.7 1497.2 2374.6 90.5 703.0 831.3 96.2 -1209.9 20171 5689.7 1518.4 2412.1 91.9 714.1 855.5 97.7 -1231.6 20172 5787.4 1539.8 2449.8 93.3 725.3 880.0 99.2 -1253.2 20173 5885.8 1561.3 2487.8 94.8 736.5 904.7 100.7 -1274.3 20174 5985.1 1583.0 2526.2 96.2 747.9 929.5 102.3 -1294.8 20181 6085.3 1604.8 2565.0 97.7 759.4 954.5 103.9 -1314.6 20182 6186.4 1626.9 2604.2 99.2 771.0 979.7 105.5 -1333.7 20183 6288.5 1649.2 2643.9 100.7 782.7 1004.9 107.1 -1351.9 20184 6391.9 1671.8 2684.2 102.3 794.7 1030.3 108.7 -1368.9 20191 6496.4 1694.7 2725.0 103.8 806.8 1055.8 110.3 -1384.7 20192 6602.1 1717.8 2766.4 105.4 819.0 1081.5 112.0 -1399.4 20193 6709.3 1741.3 2808.5 107.0 831.5 1107.2 113.7 -1413.0 20194 6818.0 1765.2 2851.4 108.6 844.2 1133.1 115.5 -1425.1 20201 6928.1 1789.4 2895.0 110.3 857.1 1159.2 117.2 -1435.8 20202 7039.9 1814.0 2939.3 112.0 870.2 1185.4 119.0 -1445.3 20203 7153.4 1839.0 2984.5 113.7 883.6 1211.8 120.9 -1453.6 20204 7268.9 1864.4 3030.6 115.4 897.3 1238.4 122.7 -1460.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1819.2 252.7 57.4 939.5 21.7 497.9 20093 1831.3 275.2 58.6 941.3 21.9 483.7 20094 1851.7 277.3 65.8 947.4 22.1 487.2 20101 1880.6 275.3 71.2 955.2 22.3 503.0 20102 1846.8 281.8 64.1 962.9 22.5 461.3 20103 1870.0 289.1 64.2 972.3 22.8 466.8 20104 1891.7 296.5 63.1 980.4 23.1 473.0 20111 1916.2 304.0 62.2 990.5 23.4 479.6 20112 1944.0 311.8 62.2 1002.4 23.8 486.6 20113 1974.8 319.9 62.9 1015.8 24.1 494.0 20114 2006.2 328.1 63.4 1029.3 24.5 501.9 20121 2039.4 336.5 64.1 1044.0 24.9 510.1 20122 2074.6 345.1 65.1 1059.6 25.3 518.6 20123 2111.7 354.0 66.3 1076.2 25.8 527.4 20124 2150.0 363.1 67.4 1093.8 26.2 536.5 20131 2188.7 372.0 68.0 1112.0 26.7 545.9 20132 2228.7 381.1 69.0 1130.7 27.2 555.5 20133 2269.7 390.3 70.2 1149.9 27.6 565.3 20134 2311.4 399.5 71.3 1169.5 28.1 575.3 20141 2353.5 408.8 72.4 1189.5 28.6 585.4 20142 2396.0 418.2 73.3 1209.7 29.1 595.7 20143 2438.8 427.5 74.2 1230.2 29.6 606.1 20144 2481.9 436.9 75.0 1250.9 30.1 616.6 20151 2525.2 446.2 75.7 1271.8 30.7 627.2 20152 2568.5 455.5 76.3 1292.7 31.2 637.8 20153 2611.9 464.7 77.0 1313.8 31.7 648.6 20154 2655.7 474.0 77.6 1335.0 32.2 659.4 20161 2699.5 483.3 78.2 1356.4 32.8 670.2 20162 2743.5 492.5 78.8 1377.8 33.3 681.1 20163 2787.8 501.8 79.4 1399.4 33.8 692.0 20164 2832.5 511.2 80.0 1421.3 34.4 703.0 20171 2877.6 520.6 80.7 1443.3 34.9 714.1 20172 2923.2 530.1 81.5 1465.6 35.5 725.3 20173 2969.3 539.7 82.3 1488.2 36.0 736.5 20174 3016.3 549.5 83.3 1511.2 36.6 747.9 20181 3063.8 559.4 84.3 1534.4 37.1 759.4 20182 3112.1 569.4 85.4 1558.0 37.7 771.0 20183 3161.3 579.7 86.6 1582.0 38.3 782.7 20184 3211.7 590.1 88.0 1606.7 38.8 794.7 20191 3263.0 600.8 89.5 1631.7 39.4 806.8 20192 3315.3 611.7 91.1 1657.1 40.0 819.0 20193 3368.7 622.9 92.8 1683.1 40.6 831.5 20194 3423.6 634.4 94.7 1709.8 41.3 844.2 20201 3479.5 646.1 96.7 1737.0 41.9 857.1 20202 3536.7 658.2 98.8 1764.7 42.5 870.2 20203 3595.2 670.5 101.1 1793.0 43.2 883.6 20204 3655.7 683.2 103.5 1822.4 43.9 897.3
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 -36.6 20092 1843.8 1429.9 405.3 3.9 -2.7 4.7 -24.6 20093 1846.1 1429.8 406.7 5.5 -2.6 4.1 -14.8 20094 1852.2 1438.1 404.9 5.7 -2.5 3.5 -0.5 20101 1868.5 1451.0 406.3 8.2 -2.7 3.0 12.1 20102 1901.6 1485.3 405.0 8.3 -2.7 3.0 -54.8 20103 1916.1 1504.9 399.7 8.4 -2.8 3.1 -46.1 20104 1932.4 1525.9 394.9 8.5 -2.8 3.1 -40.7 20111 1951.7 1548.1 391.8 8.6 -2.8 3.2 -35.5 20112 1973.8 1571.6 390.3 8.7 -2.9 3.2 -29.8 20113 1998.3 1596.2 389.9 8.9 -2.9 3.2 -23.4 20114 2025.1 1621.8 391.0 9.0 -3.0 3.3 -19.0 20121 2054.1 1648.3 393.2 9.2 -3.0 3.4 -14.7 20122 2085.0 1675.8 396.5 9.3 -3.1 3.4 -10.4 20123 2117.5 1704.0 400.6 9.5 -3.1 3.5 -5.8 20124 2151.6 1732.8 405.5 9.6 -3.2 3.5 -1.6 20131 2187.2 1762.3 411.5 9.8 -3.2 3.6 1.6 20132 2224.1 1792.2 418.2 10.0 -3.3 3.7 4.6 20133 2262.1 1822.5 425.7 10.2 -3.3 3.7 7.6 20134 2301.1 1853.3 433.7 10.3 -3.4 3.8 10.3 20141 2340.9 1884.3 442.2 10.5 -3.5 3.8 12.6 20142 2381.5 1915.7 451.2 10.7 -3.5 3.9 14.5 20143 2422.9 1947.3 460.8 10.9 -3.6 4.0 15.9 20144 2465.0 1979.1 470.8 11.1 -3.6 4.1 16.9 20151 2507.7 2011.0 481.3 11.3 -3.7 4.1 17.4 20152 2551.0 2043.1 492.2 11.5 -3.8 4.2 17.5 20153 2594.8 2075.3 503.5 11.7 -3.8 4.3 17.2 20154 2639.0 2107.6 515.2 11.9 -3.9 4.3 16.7 20161 2683.7 2140.0 527.2 12.0 -4.0 4.4 15.9 20162 2728.7 2172.6 539.4 12.2 -4.0 4.5 14.8 20163 2774.2 2205.3 551.9 12.4 -4.1 4.6 13.6 20164 2820.0 2238.1 564.6 12.6 -4.2 4.6 12.5 20171 2866.2 2271.1 577.6 12.8 -4.2 4.7 11.4 20172 2912.8 2304.3 590.7 13.0 -4.3 4.8 10.4 20173 2959.8 2337.8 603.9 13.2 -4.4 4.8 9.5 20174 3007.3 2371.6 617.4 13.4 -4.4 4.9 9.0 20181 3055.2 2405.7 630.9 13.6 -4.5 5.0 8.6 20182 3103.7 2440.1 644.6 13.9 -4.6 5.1 8.5 20183 3152.7 2474.9 658.5 14.1 -4.6 5.1 8.7 20184 3202.3 2510.2 672.6 14.3 -4.7 5.2 9.5 20191 3252.5 2545.9 686.8 14.5 -4.8 5.3 10.5 20192 3303.4 2582.2 701.1 14.7 -4.8 5.4 11.9 20193 3355.1 2618.9 715.7 14.9 -4.9 5.5 13.6 20194 3407.5 2656.3 730.5 15.2 -5.0 5.6 16.0 20201 3460.8 2694.2 745.5 15.4 -5.1 5.6 18.8 20202 3514.9 2732.8 760.7 15.6 -5.2 5.7 21.8 20203 3570.0 2772.1 776.2 15.9 -5.2 5.8 25.3 20204 3626.0 2812.0 792.0 16.1 -5.3 5.9 29.7
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -168.3 83.1 116.8 540.6 -418.0 -154.1 20042 -156.7 -13.0 101.7 618.8 -394.5 -156.3 20043 -183.1 27.4 31.9 636.8 -377.2 -135.8 20044 -168.7 -173.5 114.7 719.7 -376.7 -115.6 20051 -365.6 -85.5 153.8 699.0 -299.2 -102.5 20052 -412.6 0.2 116.3 708.6 -300.9 -111.7 20053 -441.4 96.9 11.1 739.4 -300.5 -105.5 20054 -414.1 -94.9 62.2 833.7 -284.7 -102.2 20061 -346.1 -276.3 125.3 794.3 -224.7 -72.4 20062 -283.6 -316.1 114.3 815.6 -249.0 -81.2 20063 -269.5 -337.3 80.3 858.0 -229.6 -102.0 20064 -198.8 -339.9 84.6 744.3 -182.9 -107.2 20071 -211.0 -273.4 15.6 804.2 -216.4 -119.1 20072 -210.6 -223.1 29.6 767.3 -242.6 -120.6 20073 -149.1 -133.2 8.8 689.6 -279.7 -136.4 20074 -165.2 -10.1 -33.7 656.7 -287.5 -160.3 20081 -146.2 -89.0 141.9 722.5 -454.1 -175.2 20082 123.5 7.6 126.1 758.4 -829.6 -185.9 20083 6.1 93.5 78.3 742.1 -700.9 -219.1 20084 225.0 120.0 -43.8 626.0 -718.3 -208.9 20091 272.8 446.4 55.2 414.7 -1004.4 -184.7 20092 491.5 496.5 111.9 394.6 -1308.1 -186.4 20093 316.3 616.9 206.6 430.5 -1393.3 -177.0 20094 315.6 546.6 151.7 480.8 -1343.4 -151.4 20101 237.9 476.1 203.3 553.3 -1347.8 -122.8 20102 310.8 490.9 205.3 540.3 -1357.7 -189.6 20103 357.7 449.4 207.6 531.8 -1365.7 -180.8 20104 179.2 379.6 210.2 521.0 -1114.5 -175.5 20111 240.9 337.0 213.1 511.1 -1131.6 -170.4 20112 281.5 304.5 216.2 504.6 -1141.8 -165.0 20113 309.6 270.6 219.5 502.9 -1143.7 -158.9 20114 256.8 217.6 223.0 503.0 -1045.6 -154.9 20121 289.4 178.0 226.7 505.9 -1049.0 -151.0 20122 316.7 139.3 230.6 512.3 -1051.6 -147.2 20123 340.5 99.2 234.6 522.0 -1053.2 -143.1 20124 359.8 54.3 238.8 534.9 -1048.4 -139.4 20131 366.0 5.2 243.0 549.7 -1027.0 -136.8 20132 383.4 -28.2 247.3 566.3 -1034.6 -134.3 20133 401.2 -63.1 251.8 584.3 -1042.2 -131.9 20134 419.1 -98.2 256.3 603.2 -1050.8 -129.7 20141 437.7 -132.4 260.8 622.6 -1060.9 -127.8 20142 456.7 -164.7 265.4 641.9 -1072.8 -126.4 20143 475.7 -194.5 270.1 660.6 -1086.5 -125.5 20144 494.2 -220.8 274.8 678.5 -1101.8 -124.9 20151 513.0 -244.1 279.5 694.9 -1118.6 -124.7 20152 532.0 -264.0 284.3 709.7 -1136.9 -125.0 20153 550.6 -280.0 289.1 722.3 -1156.6 -125.6 20154 568.2 -291.4 293.9 732.8 -1177.1 -126.3 20161 585.8 -299.4 298.7 740.8 -1198.6 -127.3 20162 603.1 -303.6 303.5 746.1 -1220.7 -128.5 20163 619.6 -303.8 308.4 748.7 -1243.2 -129.8 20164 634.3 -299.5 313.2 748.7 -1265.9 -130.9 20171 648.5 -292.3 318.2 746.1 -1288.4 -132.0 20172 661.9 -282.0 323.1 740.8 -1310.9 -133.0 20173 674.0 -268.4 328.1 733.1 -1332.9 -133.8 20174 683.9 -251.6 333.1 723.1 -1354.3 -134.1 20181 693.5 -233.3 338.2 710.9 -1375.0 -134.3 20182 702.5 -213.1 343.3 696.7 -1395.1 -134.3 20183 710.0 -191.1 348.5 680.6 -1414.2 -133.9 20184 714.7 -166.7 353.8 663.0 -1432.1 -132.8 20191 719.6 -142.6 359.2 644.1 -1448.8 -131.4 20192 724.1 -118.3 364.6 623.9 -1464.6 -129.8 20193 727.5 -93.6 370.2 602.7 -1479.1 -127.7 20194 727.9 -67.6 375.8 580.9 -1492.2 -124.8 20201 728.8 -43.3 381.6 558.5 -1503.9 -121.7 20202 729.5 -19.9 387.4 535.7 -1514.5 -118.3 20203 728.7 3.3 393.4 512.7 -1523.8 -114.3 20204 724.0 27.3 399.6 490.0 -1531.4 -109.4 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11597.2 8105.4 1045.9 1789.2 5270.3 20042 11778.4 8209.4 1052.3 1810.5 5346.6 20043 11950.6 8330.7 1065.0 1834.4 5431.3 20044 12144.9 8494.9 1083.1 1888.7 5523.1 20051 12379.5 8609.6 1089.2 1908.1 5612.3 20052 12516.8 8747.2 1117.9 1929.4 5699.9 20053 12741.6 8908.9 1122.5 2002.0 5784.4 20054 12915.6 9010.2 1092.3 2034.2 5883.7 20061 13183.5 9148.2 1132.5 2048.3 5967.4 20062 13347.8 9266.6 1125.1 2081.4 6060.1 20063 13453.0 9391.8 1132.4 2118.1 6141.3 20064 13611.6 9484.1 1142.2 2106.9 6235.0 20071 13795.6 9658.5 1153.0 2153.3 6352.2 20072 13997.2 9762.5 1154.9 2183.3 6424.3 20073 14179.9 9865.6 1161.4 2205.2 6499.0 20074 14337.9 10019.2 1172.7 2276.2 6570.3 20081 14382.8 10095.1 1145.8 2301.4 6647.9 20082 14497.7 10194.7 1126.5 2348.4 6719.8 20083 14546.7 10220.1 1088.5 2374.5 6757.1 20084 14347.3 10009.8 1019.9 2207.6 6782.3 20091 14177.8 9987.6 1025.2 2172.4 6790.0 20092 14151.2 9999.3 1011.5 2182.2 6805.6 20093 14242.3 10132.9 1051.3 2241.0 6840.6 20094 14453.7 10236.4 1052.0 2285.1 6899.3 20101 14601.4 10367.1 1070.6 2333.5 6963.0 20102 14783.3 10450.4 1083.7 2350.6 7016.1 20103 15011.2 10552.2 1104.3 2369.6 7078.3 20104 15214.2 10640.5 1112.6 2388.7 7139.3 20111 15430.0 10750.4 1129.6 2411.6 7209.2 20112 15682.3 10879.1 1153.0 2438.6 7287.5 20113 15972.6 11024.5 1181.4 2469.1 7374.0 20114 16262.3 11171.4 1206.7 2500.9 7463.8 20121 16567.2 11330.4 1236.8 2534.9 7558.7 20122 16891.4 11500.4 1269.9 2571.0 7659.5 20123 17231.8 11680.9 1303.8 2608.7 7768.4 20124 17576.5 11871.5 1336.1 2647.6 7887.9 20131 17911.6 12068.5 1366.2 2686.8 8015.5 20132 18259.6 12271.6 1395.7 2726.5 8149.4 20133 18616.8 12480.0 1425.2 2766.7 8288.1 20134 18978.3 12693.2 1454.4 2807.4 8431.5 20141 19340.2 12909.8 1484.3 2848.5 8577.1 20142 19701.2 13129.4 1514.8 2889.9 8724.8 20143 20060.6 13351.5 1545.3 2931.5 8874.7 20144 20418.7 13576.5 1574.8 2973.3 9028.4 20151 20774.5 13802.8 1605.0 3015.3 9182.4 20152 21127.8 14030.0 1635.8 3057.4 9336.9 20153 21479.3 14258.7 1666.1 3099.6 9493.0 20154 21830.2 14489.5 1695.1 3141.8 9652.6 20161 22179.8 14721.1 1725.1 3184.3 9811.8 20162 22528.7 14953.8 1755.7 3227.0 9971.1 20163 22877.7 15188.1 1786.3 3270.0 10131.8 20164 23228.9 15425.7 1815.5 3313.2 10296.9 20171 23581.9 15664.9 1846.0 3356.9 10462.0 20172 23937.4 15906.6 1876.9 3400.9 10628.7 20173 24296.6 16151.5 1907.6 3445.4 10798.5 20174 24661.6 16401.2 1936.8 3490.2 10974.3 20181 25031.4 16653.7 1967.3 3535.6 11150.7 20182 25406.5 16909.6 1998.6 3581.5 11329.5 20183 25788.5 17170.3 2029.6 3627.9 11512.7 20184 26180.1 17437.9 2058.4 3674.8 11704.7 20191 26579.4 17709.4 2089.2 3722.4 11897.8 20192 26986.7 17985.3 2121.4 3770.8 12093.2 20193 27403.1 18267.0 2153.8 3819.9 12293.3 20194 27832.0 18557.2 2183.9 3869.6 12503.8 20201 28270.7 18852.1 2216.3 3920.1 12715.7 20202 28719.3 19152.7 2250.1 3971.4 12931.1 20203 29179.4 19460.5 2283.7 4023.5 13153.3 20204 29654.7 19779.0 2314.0 4076.1 13388.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1853.6 1802.2 1164.6 637.6 51.4 20042 1956.0 1880.0 1204.4 675.6 76.0 20043 2001.4 1940.6 1244.0 696.6 60.8 20044 2063.2 1991.7 1279.1 712.6 71.5 20051 2130.7 2040.0 1305.2 734.8 90.7 20052 2115.3 2099.4 1334.9 764.5 15.9 20053 2166.5 2155.5 1362.9 792.6 11.0 20054 2276.4 2194.2 1386.3 807.9 82.2 20061 2336.5 2270.5 1457.2 813.3 66.0 20062 2352.1 2279.7 1495.3 784.4 72.4 20063 2333.5 2264.4 1522.7 741.7 69.1 20064 2286.5 2254.2 1546.1 708.1 32.3 20071 2267.2 2254.1 1574.1 680.0 13.1 20072 2302.1 2278.6 1623.5 655.1 23.5 20073 2311.8 2280.8 1665.2 615.6 31.0 20074 2272.9 2263.1 1697.9 565.2 9.8 20081 2223.8 2223.1 1705.0 518.1 0.7 20082 2164.6 2213.9 1719.7 494.2 -49.3 20083 2142.6 2179.6 1711.0 468.6 -37.0 20084 2022.0 2066.5 1638.7 427.8 -44.5 20091 1689.8 1817.2 1442.6 374.6 -127.4 20092 1561.5 1737.7 1391.8 345.9 -176.2 20093 1556.2 1712.7 1353.9 358.8 -156.5 20094 1707.8 1731.4 1366.9 364.5 -23.6 20101 1762.9 1729.7 1374.4 355.3 33.2 20102 1794.1 1763.8 1385.0 378.7 30.4 20103 1875.1 1835.2 1419.8 415.5 39.8 20104 1936.6 1877.7 1450.3 427.4 58.9 20111 1990.1 1936.8 1482.2 454.6 53.3 20112 2061.9 2016.7 1524.9 491.8 45.3 20113 2157.9 2112.4 1577.7 534.7 45.5 20114 2258.2 2199.2 1631.6 567.7 58.9 20121 2355.7 2296.2 1691.3 604.9 59.4 20122 2462.7 2402.9 1758.6 644.3 59.8 20123 2577.7 2515.1 1830.8 684.3 62.6 20124 2695.9 2628.1 1904.6 723.5 67.8 20131 2808.3 2736.3 1977.1 759.1 72.0 20132 2911.1 2845.2 2052.3 792.9 65.9 20133 3018.4 2953.8 2129.0 824.8 64.7 20134 3125.4 3059.7 2205.1 854.6 65.7 20141 3229.1 3162.3 2279.9 882.4 66.7 20142 3328.2 3261.4 2353.3 908.1 66.8 20143 3422.3 3356.2 2424.3 931.9 66.1 20144 3510.9 3446.2 2492.4 953.8 64.7 20151 3594.3 3530.9 2556.9 974.0 63.4 20152 3672.3 3610.2 2617.6 992.6 62.1 20153 3744.7 3684.1 2674.2 1009.9 60.7 20154 3812.0 3752.8 2726.7 1026.0 59.2 20161 3874.7 3816.3 2775.1 1041.2 58.3 20162 3932.7 3875.0 2819.4 1055.6 57.7 20163 3986.2 3929.1 2859.7 1069.4 57.1 20164 4035.9 3979.4 2896.6 1082.8 56.5 20171 4082.7 4026.0 2930.1 1095.9 56.6 20172 4126.5 4069.6 2960.7 1108.9 56.9 20173 4168.0 4110.6 2988.7 1121.9 57.3 20174 4207.7 4149.9 3014.9 1135.0 57.8 20181 4246.7 4187.7 3039.5 1148.2 58.9 20182 4284.7 4224.6 3062.9 1161.8 60.1 20183 4322.3 4261.2 3085.6 1175.6 61.1 20184 4360.4 4298.3 3108.5 1189.8 62.1 20191 4400.1 4336.2 3131.8 1204.5 63.9 20192 4441.0 4375.2 3155.6 1219.6 65.8 20193 4483.3 4416.0 3180.7 1235.2 67.3 20194 4527.8 4459.2 3207.8 1251.4 68.6 20201 4575.8 4505.0 3236.9 1268.1 70.8 20202 4626.4 4553.4 3268.0 1285.4 73.0 20203 4679.8 4605.0 3301.8 1303.2 74.8 20204 4736.6 4660.5 3338.9 1321.6 76.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -546.3 1138.8 1685.1 2184.5 805.1 1379.4 20042 -606.1 1170.8 1776.9 2219.1 819.9 1399.2 20043 -635.9 1185.4 1821.3 2254.4 839.1 1415.3 20044 -686.5 1225.9 1912.4 2273.3 834.5 1438.8 20051 -677.4 1262.4 1939.8 2316.6 862.0 1454.6 20052 -690.2 1298.5 1988.7 2344.5 867.2 1477.3 20053 -733.9 1308.2 2042.1 2400.1 894.1 1506.0 20054 -789.3 1351.3 2140.6 2418.3 881.9 1536.4 20061 -775.8 1414.0 2189.8 2474.6 928.5 1546.1 20062 -781.4 1456.0 2237.4 2510.5 930.3 1580.2 20063 -805.7 1476.0 2281.7 2533.4 932.2 1601.2 20064 -714.3 1538.2 2252.5 2555.3 935.9 1619.4 20071 -729.4 1564.9 2294.3 2599.3 942.8 1656.5 20072 -724.8 1602.1 2326.9 2657.4 968.1 1689.3 20073 -698.4 1685.2 2383.6 2700.9 991.4 1709.5 20074 -702.4 1771.6 2474.0 2748.2 1004.3 1743.9 20081 -744.5 1803.6 2548.1 2808.4 1038.3 1770.1 20082 -738.7 1901.5 2640.2 2877.1 1069.5 1807.6 20083 -757.4 1913.1 2670.5 2941.4 1108.3 1833.1 20084 -590.5 1706.2 2296.7 2906.0 1114.3 1791.7 20091 -378.6 1509.3 1887.9 2879.0 1106.7 1772.3 20092 -339.1 1493.7 1832.8 2929.5 1138.3 1791.2 20093 -402.2 1573.8 1976.0 2955.4 1164.3 1791.1 20094 -449.6 1680.1 2129.7 2959.1 1170.1 1789.0 20101 -503.8 1719.5 2223.3 2975.2 1186.3 1788.9 20102 -490.2 1758.2 2248.4 3029.0 1203.7 1825.3 20103 -481.1 1799.9 2281.0 3065.1 1217.8 1847.3 20104 -469.7 1844.5 2314.2 3106.9 1235.7 1871.1 20111 -459.0 1892.0 2351.0 3148.5 1252.1 1896.5 20112 -451.8 1942.1 2393.9 3193.1 1269.8 1923.3 20113 -449.3 1994.9 2444.2 3239.5 1288.0 1951.5 20114 -448.5 2050.4 2499.0 3281.3 1300.3 1981.0 20121 -450.6 2108.5 2559.0 3331.7 1320.1 2011.6 20122 -456.0 2169.0 2625.0 3384.3 1341.1 2043.3 20123 -464.8 2232.0 2696.8 3438.1 1362.2 2075.9 20124 -476.7 2297.4 2774.1 3485.7 1376.4 2109.3 20131 -490.5 2365.1 2855.5 3525.3 1381.8 2143.5 20132 -506.0 2434.9 2940.9 3582.9 1404.6 2178.2 20133 -523.0 2506.8 3029.8 3641.3 1427.8 2213.5 20134 -540.8 2580.8 3121.7 3700.5 1451.3 2249.2 20141 -559.1 2656.9 3216.0 3760.4 1475.1 2285.2 20142 -577.2 2735.0 3312.2 3820.8 1499.1 2321.6 20143 -594.8 2815.0 3409.8 3881.6 1523.3 2358.3 20144 -611.5 2896.9 3508.5 3942.8 1547.6 2395.1 20151 -626.9 2980.7 3607.6 4004.3 1572.1 2432.2 20152 -640.5 3066.4 3706.9 4065.9 1596.6 2469.3 20153 -652.0 3154.0 3805.9 4127.8 1621.3 2506.6 20154 -661.3 3243.4 3904.6 4189.9 1646.0 2543.9 20161 -668.1 3334.7 4002.8 4252.1 1670.7 2581.3 20162 -672.2 3428.0 4100.2 4314.4 1695.6 2618.8 20163 -673.6 3523.2 4196.9 4377.0 1720.5 2656.5 20164 -672.5 3620.5 4293.0 4439.8 1745.6 2694.3 20171 -668.6 3720.0 4388.6 4502.9 1770.7 2732.2 20172 -662.1 3821.7 4483.8 4566.4 1796.1 2770.3 20173 -653.2 3925.8 4578.9 4630.3 1821.5 2808.7 20174 -641.9 4032.3 4674.3 4694.7 1847.2 2847.4 20181 -628.5 4141.5 4770.0 4759.6 1873.2 2886.4 20182 -613.0 4253.4 4866.4 4825.2 1899.3 2925.9 20183 -595.6 4368.1 4963.7 4891.5 1925.8 2965.7 20184 -576.8 4485.8 5062.6 4958.6 1952.6 3006.0 20191 -556.6 4606.7 5163.3 5026.5 1979.7 3046.8 20192 -535.0 4730.9 5266.0 5095.4 2007.2 3088.2 20193 -512.5 4858.6 5371.0 5165.3 2035.1 3130.1 20194 -489.3 4989.8 5479.1 5236.2 2063.5 3172.8 20201 -465.5 5124.9 5590.4 5308.3 2092.2 3216.0 20202 -441.3 5263.8 5705.1 5381.5 2121.5 3260.0 20203 -416.8 5406.8 5823.6 5456.0 2151.2 3304.8 20204 -392.6 5554.0 5946.6 5531.7 2181.5 3350.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2005 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 12127.7 8438.2 1031.0 1888.9 5518.3 20042 12213.9 8483.9 1038.3 1893.9 5551.7 20043 12303.6 8556.1 1058.7 1907.8 5589.6 20044 12410.3 8654.5 1076.1 1927.6 5650.8 20051 12534.1 8719.3 1083.3 1949.6 5686.4 20052 12587.6 8803.0 1113.6 1961.5 5727.9 20053 12683.1 8865.7 1126.7 1971.8 5767.2 20054 12748.7 8888.0 1098.4 1990.7 5798.9 20061 12915.9 8987.0 1142.3 2003.7 5841.0 20062 12962.4 9035.1 1139.4 2011.5 5884.2 20063 12966.0 9090.9 1152.1 2024.5 5914.3 20064 13060.6 9182.0 1167.9 2054.7 5959.4 20071 13100.0 9265.7 1183.7 2070.3 6011.7 20072 13204.0 9292.3 1189.9 2066.1 6036.3 20073 13321.1 9337.3 1205.0 2076.8 6055.5 20074 13391.3 9367.0 1221.2 2086.0 6059.8 20081 13366.9 9350.4 1193.2 2070.1 6087.1 20082 13415.3 9349.5 1175.7 2081.3 6092.5 20083 13324.7 9263.4 1139.6 2051.4 6072.4 20084 13141.9 9183.3 1076.8 2026.1 6080.4 20091 12925.4 9198.7 1087.2 2035.4 6076.1 20092 12901.5 9176.2 1071.7 2025.7 6078.8 20093 12973.1 9246.7 1122.8 2033.3 6090.6 20094 13149.6 9283.1 1123.8 2053.4 6105.9 20101 13254.6 9369.8 1154.2 2073.2 6142.4 20102 13370.9 9415.8 1164.6 2081.7 6169.4 20103 13516.3 9469.3 1181.7 2089.7 6197.9 20104 13619.5 9499.5 1184.5 2095.7 6219.3 20111 13722.8 9542.6 1195.5 2103.5 6243.6 20112 13848.3 9596.3 1212.5 2113.2 6270.6 20113 13996.4 9658.1 1233.5 2124.5 6300.1 20114 14131.4 9714.3 1250.4 2135.6 6328.3 20121 14270.4 9776.2 1271.3 2147.3 6357.6 20122 14417.5 9842.9 1294.5 2159.8 6388.7 20123 14569.6 9913.9 1317.6 2172.6 6423.8 20124 14716.8 9988.8 1338.3 2185.5 6465.0 20131 14848.4 10065.2 1356.2 2198.1 6510.9 20132 14985.1 10143.8 1373.1 2210.5 6560.2 20133 15124.5 10224.4 1389.5 2222.9 6612.0 20134 15262.9 10306.8 1405.2 2235.4 6666.2 20141 15398.0 10390.4 1421.4 2248.0 6721.0 20142 15529.2 10475.1 1437.9 2260.6 6776.6 20143 15656.6 10560.7 1454.1 2273.3 6833.2 20144 15780.8 10647.5 1469.2 2286.1 6892.3 20151 15902.0 10735.0 1484.9 2298.9 6951.2 20152 16020.2 10822.9 1500.9 2311.9 7010.2 20153 16136.3 10911.7 1516.5 2325.0 7070.2 20154 16251.2 11001.6 1530.8 2338.2 7132.6 20161 16365.1 11092.2 1545.9 2351.6 7194.7 20162 16478.1 11183.4 1561.5 2365.3 7256.6 20163 16590.8 11275.7 1577.1 2379.2 7319.4 20164 16704.6 11369.8 1591.4 2393.3 7385.1 20171 16819.1 11464.9 1606.6 2407.7 7450.5 20172 16934.6 11561.1 1622.2 2422.3 7516.6 20173 17051.6 11658.9 1637.4 2437.1 7584.3 20174 17171.1 11758.9 1651.2 2452.1 7655.6 20181 17292.4 11859.9 1666.0 2467.4 7726.5 20182 17415.5 11962.1 1681.2 2482.8 7798.1 20183 17541.0 12066.2 1696.0 2498.3 7871.8 20184 17670.2 12173.0 1708.7 2513.9 7950.3 20191 17802.0 12280.9 1722.8 2529.7 8028.3 20192 17936.1 12390.1 1737.9 2545.7 8106.5 20193 18072.9 12501.1 1752.8 2561.9 8186.4 20194 18213.8 12615.2 1765.6 2578.1 8271.6 20201 18357.6 12730.4 1779.9 2594.4 8356.0 20202 18503.8 12847.0 1795.0 2610.9 8441.0 20203 18653.0 12965.7 1809.6 2627.5 8528.6 20204 18806.7 13088.2 1821.3 2643.9 8623.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1971.1 1918.7 1214.2 704.5 52.4 20042 2056.7 1978.0 1247.0 731.0 78.7 20043 2082.4 2019.7 1281.2 738.5 62.7 20044 2125.3 2053.7 1309.5 744.2 71.6 20051 2170.6 2079.2 1321.5 757.7 91.4 20052 2131.7 2116.2 1340.8 775.4 15.5 20053 2154.8 2143.0 1359.7 783.3 11.8 20054 2231.8 2150.8 1367.2 783.6 81.0 20061 2265.9 2200.1 1424.9 775.2 65.8 20062 2262.9 2190.4 1450.3 740.1 72.5 20063 2230.9 2163.4 1466.0 697.4 67.5 20064 2166.6 2134.8 1474.5 660.3 31.8 20071 2135.9 2121.4 1489.6 631.8 14.5 20072 2163.9 2140.6 1530.2 610.4 23.3 20073 2168.6 2138.8 1565.8 573.0 29.8 20074 2126.6 2116.3 1591.3 525.0 10.3 20081 2082.8 2082.2 1598.9 483.3 0.6 20082 2030.3 2067.4 1604.4 463.0 -37.1 20083 1992.9 2022.6 1579.2 443.4 -29.7 20084 1873.6 1911.0 1496.0 415.0 -37.4 20091 1575.3 1689.2 1321.2 368.0 -113.9 20092 1472.5 1632.7 1288.3 344.4 -160.2 20093 1489.3 1628.5 1268.9 359.6 -139.2 20094 1628.8 1648.5 1285.5 363.0 -19.7 20101 1682.0 1650.9 1298.3 352.6 31.1 20102 1707.2 1678.8 1304.2 374.6 28.4 20103 1777.5 1740.5 1331.2 409.3 37.0 20104 1826.2 1771.7 1352.9 418.8 54.5 20111 1866.5 1817.5 1374.6 442.9 49.0 20112 1922.4 1881.1 1405.1 476.0 41.3 20113 1998.5 1957.3 1443.4 513.9 41.3 20114 2075.9 2022.8 1481.4 541.4 53.1 20121 2148.8 2095.7 1523.3 572.4 53.1 20122 2228.2 2175.3 1570.7 604.6 52.9 20123 2312.7 2257.7 1621.1 636.6 55.0 20124 2397.7 2338.7 1671.6 667.1 59.0 20131 2475.5 2413.5 1719.8 693.7 62.1 20132 2543.5 2487.2 1769.1 718.1 56.4 20133 2613.7 2559.0 1818.8 740.2 54.8 20134 2682.2 2627.0 1866.9 760.1 55.2 20141 2746.5 2691.0 1913.1 777.9 55.5 20142 2805.9 2750.8 1957.3 793.5 55.1 20143 2860.1 2806.1 1998.9 807.2 54.0 20144 2909.0 2856.6 2037.4 819.1 52.5 20151 2953.2 2902.2 2072.7 829.5 51.0 20152 2992.4 2942.9 2104.5 838.4 49.5 20153 3026.9 2978.9 2132.7 846.2 48.0 20154 3057.0 3010.5 2157.6 852.9 46.5 20161 3083.4 3037.9 2179.0 858.9 45.4 20162 3106.0 3061.4 2197.2 864.3 44.6 20163 3125.2 3081.4 2212.3 869.1 43.8 20164 3141.3 3098.3 2224.6 873.7 43.0 20171 3155.3 3112.5 2234.5 878.0 42.8 20172 3167.1 3124.3 2242.1 882.2 42.8 20173 3177.0 3134.3 2247.8 886.4 42.8 20174 3185.7 3142.9 2252.2 890.7 42.8 20181 3193.7 3150.4 2255.3 895.1 43.4 20182 3201.0 3157.1 2257.5 899.6 43.9 20183 3207.9 3163.5 2259.2 904.3 44.4 20184 3214.9 3170.1 2261.0 909.2 44.8 20191 3223.0 3177.2 2262.9 914.3 45.8 20192 3231.7 3184.9 2265.2 919.7 46.8 20193 3241.1 3193.5 2268.1 925.4 47.6 20194 3251.8 3203.6 2272.4 931.3 48.2 20201 3264.6 3215.2 2277.8 937.5 49.4 20202 3278.9 3228.3 2284.4 943.9 50.6 20203 3294.6 3243.1 2292.5 950.6 51.5 20204 3312.3 3260.2 2302.7 957.6 52.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -632.5 1197.3 1829.8 2355.1 20042 -687.1 1216.0 1903.1 2363.6 20043 -705.6 1225.1 1930.7 2372.1 20044 -726.7 1253.0 1979.7 2357.6 20051 -714.8 1276.2 1991.0 2359.9 20052 -709.4 1303.5 2012.9 2362.4 20053 -721.3 1303.9 2025.2 2383.9 20054 -745.3 1336.7 2082.0 2373.3 20061 -732.5 1388.8 2121.3 2397.2 20062 -732.8 1412.1 2144.9 2399.1 20063 -756.5 1414.1 2170.6 2402.8 20064 -694.9 1473.2 2168.1 2409.5 20071 -705.0 1485.9 2190.9 2409.3 20072 -683.3 1504.8 2188.1 2435.2 20073 -638.5 1569.9 2208.4 2459.1 20074 -564.0 1624.0 2188.0 2468.8 20081 -550.8 1623.5 2174.3 2485.3 20082 -476.0 1670.5 2146.5 2507.9 20083 -479.2 1655.2 2134.4 2538.6 20084 -470.8 1568.1 2038.9 2546.6 20091 -386.4 1434.6 1821.0 2529.6 20092 -330.3 1419.5 1749.8 2571.5 20093 -357.4 1478.9 1836.3 2588.9 20094 -348.0 1556.8 1904.8 2580.4 20101 -366.9 1578.9 1945.8 2569.1 20102 -348.5 1609.6 1958.0 2595.8 20103 -335.8 1640.8 1976.7 2604.7 20104 -322.8 1672.7 1995.5 2616.1 20111 -312.0 1705.2 2017.2 2625.1 20112 -305.6 1738.3 2043.9 2634.5 20113 -304.4 1772.1 2076.5 2643.6 20114 -306.0 1806.5 2112.6 2646.7 20121 -311.0 1841.6 2152.7 2655.9 20122 -319.8 1877.4 2197.2 2665.5 20123 -332.3 1913.9 2246.2 2674.8 20124 -348.1 1951.1 2299.2 2677.7 20131 -366.0 1989.0 2355.0 2673.1 20132 -385.8 2027.6 2413.4 2682.9 20133 -407.1 2067.0 2474.1 2692.8 20134 -429.4 2107.1 2536.5 2702.7 20141 -452.1 2148.1 2600.2 2712.7 20142 -475.0 2189.8 2664.8 2722.7 20143 -497.5 2232.3 2729.8 2732.7 20144 -519.2 2275.7 2794.9 2742.8 20151 -539.8 2319.9 2859.7 2753.0 20152 -558.9 2365.0 2923.9 2763.2 20153 -576.3 2410.9 2987.2 2773.4 20154 -591.7 2457.8 3049.5 2783.8 20161 -605.2 2505.5 3110.7 2794.1 20162 -616.5 2554.2 3170.7 2804.5 20163 -625.6 2603.8 3229.4 2815.0 20164 -632.7 2654.4 3287.1 2825.5 20171 -637.7 2706.0 3343.7 2836.0 20172 -640.9 2758.5 3399.4 2846.7 20173 -642.2 2812.1 3454.3 2857.3 20174 -642.1 2866.7 3508.8 2868.0 20181 -640.6 2922.4 3563.0 2878.8 20182 -637.8 2979.2 3617.0 2889.6 20183 -634.1 3037.1 3671.2 2900.5 20184 -629.8 3096.1 3725.8 2911.4 20191 -624.9 3156.2 3781.2 2922.4 20192 -619.8 3217.5 3837.3 2933.5 20193 -614.5 3280.0 3894.5 2944.6 20194 -609.5 3343.8 3953.3 2955.7 20201 -604.9 3408.7 4013.7 2966.9 20202 -600.8 3474.9 4075.8 2978.2 20203 -597.4 3542.5 4139.9 2989.5 20204 -595.2 3611.3 4206.5 3000.9
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2592.3 1136.8 393.6 101.6 937.3 20072 2608.2 1157.6 387.3 101.3 938.8 20073 2606.7 1177.6 358.5 102.8 943.8 20074 2628.9 1200.6 341.3 102.4 957.6 20081 2540.1 1195.3 243.1 102.6 970.0 20082 2522.4 1183.6 231.2 105.1 973.0 20083 2495.9 1167.1 218.5 101.7 978.5 20084 2397.9 1120.2 156.5 98.3 976.4 20091 2203.4 900.3 192.0 91.8 953.0 20092 2339.4 981.9 223.8 97.8 954.3 20093 2372.8 1031.8 238.1 98.6 945.7 20094 2417.1 1031.8 270.2 103.1 947.6 20101 2507.1 1088.1 291.9 104.9 967.6 20102 2527.5 1117.5 262.8 105.7 986.2 20103 2584.8 1151.0 263.1 106.8 1008.0 20104 2637.3 1184.4 258.6 107.7 1030.0 20111 2692.1 1218.6 254.9 108.8 1052.4 20112 2752.8 1253.9 254.8 110.1 1075.8 20113 2819.9 1290.6 257.8 111.6 1100.8 20114 2886.5 1327.7 259.6 113.0 1126.1 20121 2955.6 1365.6 262.4 114.6 1151.9 20122 3028.1 1404.8 266.5 116.4 1178.4 20123 3103.5 1445.2 271.4 118.2 1205.5 20124 3179.4 1486.2 275.9 120.1 1233.0 20131 3252.7 1526.7 278.6 122.1 1260.0 20132 3328.1 1567.7 282.7 124.2 1287.0 20133 3404.8 1609.3 287.4 126.3 1314.3 20134 3482.3 1651.3 292.0 128.4 1341.6 20141 3559.6 1693.6 296.4 130.6 1368.9 20142 3636.5 1736.1 300.2 132.9 1396.0 20143 3712.9 1778.6 303.8 135.1 1422.8 20144 3788.7 1821.1 307.0 137.4 1449.4 20151 3864.0 1863.6 310.0 139.7 1475.7 20152 3938.6 1905.9 312.6 142.0 1501.7 20153 4012.8 1948.3 315.2 144.3 1527.5 20154 4086.8 1990.6 317.7 146.6 1553.0 20161 4160.6 2033.0 320.1 149.0 1578.3 20162 4234.3 2075.5 322.6 151.3 1603.5 20163 4308.3 2118.1 325.0 153.7 1628.6 20164 4382.8 2161.1 327.8 156.1 1653.7 20171 4458.1 2204.5 330.6 158.5 1679.0 20172 4534.2 2248.3 333.7 161.0 1704.4 20173 4611.5 2292.7 337.1 163.4 1730.0 20174 4690.3 2337.8 341.0 166.0 1756.0 20181 4770.7 2383.7 345.2 168.5 1782.3 20182 4852.6 2430.4 349.7 171.1 1809.1 20183 4936.6 2478.1 354.7 173.7 1836.4 20184 5023.0 2526.8 360.4 176.4 1864.2 20191 5111.7 2576.7 366.5 179.2 1892.7 20192 5202.7 2627.8 373.1 182.0 1921.9 20193 5296.2 2680.1 380.1 184.8 1951.7 20194 5392.9 2733.9 387.9 187.8 1982.3 20201 5492.3 2789.1 396.1 190.8 2013.8 20202 5594.6 2845.9 404.8 193.8 2046.0 20203 5699.8 2904.2 413.9 196.9 2079.1 20204 5808.7 2964.2 424.0 200.1 2113.1
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2314.1 706.4 1026.5 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 1024.5 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1034.8 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1045.9 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1090.4 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1087.5 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1105.8 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1128.5 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1170.1 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1199.8 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1209.4 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1208.5 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2793.4 821.1 1260.1 1209.1 51.0 375.0 285.0 52.2 -201.1 20072 2829.4 839.9 1259.0 1228.2 30.8 380.7 299.2 50.6 -221.2 20073 2865.6 860.8 1282.3 1245.0 37.3 379.7 294.7 48.1 -258.9 20074 2893.9 873.4 1306.0 1259.9 46.1 380.3 283.9 50.3 -265.0 20081 2973.7 903.2 1343.2 1294.4 48.8 382.5 293.1 51.7 -433.6 20082 3319.5 923.2 1678.7 1630.7 48.0 391.8 272.5 53.3 -797.1 20083 3161.8 956.0 1462.2 1419.9 42.3 390.0 299.0 54.6 -665.9 20084 3072.0 955.4 1432.0 1387.9 44.1 402.4 224.4 57.8 -674.1 20091 3172.5 954.2 1510.9 1469.9 41.0 437.7 209.4 60.3 -969.1 20092 3608.2 979.1 1818.5 1763.0 55.5 497.9 253.7 59.0 -1268.8 20093 3726.3 1001.2 1900.4 1841.4 59.0 483.7 271.0 70.0 -1353.5 20094 3724.3 1011.0 1903.4 1861.6 41.8 487.2 259.4 63.3 -1307.2 20101 3818.5 1025.1 1958.9 1900.2 58.7 503.0 269.1 62.4 -1311.4 20102 3848.3 1040.7 1989.3 1930.0 59.4 461.3 293.9 63.1 -1320.9 20103 3913.2 1052.9 2010.3 1950.2 60.1 466.8 319.5 63.8 -1328.5 20104 3714.1 1068.6 1763.0 1702.2 60.9 473.0 344.8 64.7 -1076.7 20111 3785.4 1082.6 1786.9 1725.2 61.7 479.6 370.6 65.6 -1093.3 20112 3855.7 1097.8 1812.3 1749.6 62.6 486.6 392.4 66.6 -1103.0 20113 3924.2 1113.5 1839.0 1775.5 63.6 494.0 410.1 67.6 -1104.3 20114 3892.0 1122.9 1771.7 1707.1 64.6 501.9 426.8 68.6 -1005.5 20121 3963.8 1139.9 1800.5 1734.9 65.6 510.1 443.6 69.8 -1008.3 20122 4038.3 1157.8 1830.4 1763.7 66.7 518.6 460.6 70.9 -1010.2 20123 4114.6 1175.9 1861.4 1793.6 67.9 527.4 477.8 72.1 -1011.1 20124 4184.9 1186.8 1893.0 1824.0 69.0 536.5 495.2 73.4 -1005.6 20131 4236.2 1188.9 1914.1 1843.8 70.2 545.9 512.7 74.7 -983.5 20132 4318.3 1208.4 1947.8 1876.3 71.5 555.5 530.7 76.0 -990.2 20133 4402.0 1228.1 1982.2 1909.4 72.7 565.3 549.1 77.3 -997.1 20134 4487.2 1248.1 2017.2 1943.2 74.0 575.3 567.9 78.7 -1004.9 20141 4573.8 1268.3 2052.7 1977.4 75.3 585.4 587.3 80.1 -1014.3 20142 4661.8 1288.6 2088.8 2012.1 76.6 595.7 607.3 81.5 -1025.3 20143 4751.0 1309.1 2125.2 2047.2 78.0 606.1 627.7 82.9 -1038.2 20144 4841.3 1329.8 2162.0 2082.7 79.3 616.6 648.6 84.3 -1052.6 20151 4932.6 1350.5 2199.1 2118.4 80.7 627.2 670.0 85.8 -1068.6 20152 5024.8 1371.3 2236.5 2154.4 82.1 637.8 691.9 87.2 -1086.1 20153 5117.7 1392.1 2274.1 2190.6 83.5 648.6 714.2 88.7 -1104.9 20154 5211.4 1413.0 2311.9 2227.1 84.8 659.4 737.0 90.2 -1124.6 20161 5305.8 1433.9 2349.9 2263.7 86.2 670.2 760.0 91.7 -1145.2 20162 5400.7 1454.9 2388.1 2300.5 87.6 681.1 783.5 93.2 -1166.4 20163 5496.4 1476.0 2426.5 2337.4 89.0 692.0 807.2 94.7 -1188.1 20164 5592.7 1497.2 2465.1 2374.6 90.5 703.0 831.3 96.2 -1209.9 20171 5689.7 1518.4 2503.9 2412.1 91.9 714.1 855.5 97.7 -1231.6 20172 5787.4 1539.8 2543.1 2449.8 93.3 725.3 880.0 99.2 -1253.2 20173 5885.8 1561.3 2582.5 2487.8 94.8 736.5 904.7 100.7 -1274.3 20174 5985.1 1583.0 2622.4 2526.2 96.2 747.9 929.5 102.3 -1294.8 20181 6085.3 1604.8 2662.7 2565.0 97.7 759.4 954.5 103.9 -1314.6 20182 6186.4 1626.9 2703.4 2604.2 99.2 771.0 979.7 105.5 -1333.7 20183 6288.5 1649.2 2744.6 2643.9 100.7 782.7 1004.9 107.1 -1351.9 20184 6391.9 1671.8 2786.4 2684.2 102.3 794.7 1030.3 108.7 -1368.9 20191 6496.4 1694.7 2828.8 2725.0 103.8 806.8 1055.8 110.3 -1384.7 20192 6602.1 1717.8 2871.8 2766.4 105.4 819.0 1081.5 112.0 -1399.4 20193 6709.3 1741.3 2915.5 2808.5 107.0 831.5 1107.2 113.7 -1413.0 20194 6818.0 1765.2 2960.0 2851.4 108.6 844.2 1133.1 115.5 -1425.1 20201 6928.1 1789.4 3005.2 2895.0 110.3 857.1 1159.2 117.2 -1435.8 20202 7039.9 1814.0 3051.3 2939.3 112.0 870.2 1185.4 119.0 -1445.3 20203 7153.4 1839.0 3098.2 2984.5 113.7 883.6 1211.8 120.9 -1453.6 20204 7268.9 1864.4 3146.1 3030.6 115.4 897.3 1238.4 122.7 -1460.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1744.9 322.7 53.8 930.8 20.0 375.0 20072 1763.2 324.1 54.7 940.8 19.7 380.7 20073 1769.6 323.1 55.8 947.3 19.6 379.7 20074 1787.8 321.3 61.9 959.3 19.9 380.3 20081 1799.0 336.4 51.9 960.6 20.3 382.5 20082 1828.5 342.0 57.2 968.6 20.8 391.8 20083 1822.1 327.2 57.1 977.7 21.4 390.0 20084 1784.2 314.1 37.7 958.3 22.0 402.4 20091 1793.1 287.0 52.2 944.3 21.8 437.7 20092 1819.2 252.7 57.4 939.5 21.7 497.9 20093 1831.3 275.2 58.6 941.3 21.9 483.7 20094 1851.7 277.3 65.8 947.4 22.1 487.2 20101 1880.6 275.3 71.2 955.2 22.3 503.0 20102 1846.8 281.8 64.1 962.9 22.5 461.3 20103 1870.0 289.1 64.2 972.3 22.8 466.8 20104 1891.7 296.5 63.1 980.4 23.1 473.0 20111 1916.2 304.0 62.2 990.5 23.4 479.6 20112 1944.0 311.8 62.2 1002.4 23.8 486.6 20113 1974.8 319.9 62.9 1015.8 24.1 494.0 20114 2006.2 328.1 63.4 1029.3 24.5 501.9 20121 2039.4 336.5 64.1 1044.0 24.9 510.1 20122 2074.6 345.1 65.1 1059.6 25.3 518.6 20123 2111.7 354.0 66.3 1076.2 25.8 527.4 20124 2150.0 363.1 67.4 1093.8 26.2 536.5 20131 2188.7 372.0 68.0 1112.0 26.7 545.9 20132 2228.7 381.1 69.0 1130.7 27.2 555.5 20133 2269.7 390.3 70.2 1149.9 27.6 565.3 20134 2311.4 399.5 71.3 1169.5 28.1 575.3 20141 2353.5 408.8 72.4 1189.5 28.6 585.4 20142 2396.0 418.2 73.3 1209.7 29.1 595.7 20143 2438.8 427.5 74.2 1230.2 29.6 606.1 20144 2481.9 436.9 75.0 1250.9 30.1 616.6 20151 2525.2 446.2 75.7 1271.8 30.7 627.2 20152 2568.5 455.5 76.3 1292.7 31.2 637.8 20153 2611.9 464.7 77.0 1313.8 31.7 648.6 20154 2655.7 474.0 77.6 1335.0 32.2 659.4 20161 2699.5 483.3 78.2 1356.4 32.8 670.2 20162 2743.5 492.5 78.8 1377.8 33.3 681.1 20163 2787.8 501.8 79.4 1399.4 33.8 692.0 20164 2832.5 511.2 80.0 1421.3 34.4 703.0 20171 2877.6 520.6 80.7 1443.3 34.9 714.1 20172 2923.2 530.1 81.5 1465.6 35.5 725.3 20173 2969.3 539.7 82.3 1488.2 36.0 736.5 20174 3016.3 549.5 83.3 1511.2 36.6 747.9 20181 3063.8 559.4 84.3 1534.4 37.1 759.4 20182 3112.1 569.4 85.4 1558.0 37.7 771.0 20183 3161.3 579.7 86.6 1582.0 38.3 782.7 20184 3211.7 590.1 88.0 1606.7 38.8 794.7 20191 3263.0 600.8 89.5 1631.7 39.4 806.8 20192 3315.3 611.7 91.1 1657.1 40.0 819.0 20193 3368.7 622.9 92.8 1683.1 40.6 831.5 20194 3423.6 634.4 94.7 1709.8 41.3 844.2 20201 3479.5 646.1 96.7 1737.0 41.9 857.1 20202 3536.7 658.2 98.8 1764.7 42.5 870.2 20203 3595.2 670.5 101.1 1793.0 43.2 883.6 20204 3655.7 683.2 103.5 1822.4 43.9 897.3
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 0.0 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 0.0 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 0.0 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 0.0 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 0.0 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 0.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 0.0 35.9 20071 1712.1 1331.2 377.7 -2.3 -2.4 5.5 0.0 32.8 20072 1728.1 1357.3 359.6 -3.5 -2.4 14.7 0.0 35.1 20073 1749.3 1373.6 365.9 -3.1 -2.5 12.9 0.0 20.3 20074 1789.1 1402.5 376.8 -1.3 -2.6 11.1 0.0 -1.3 20081 1819.2 1429.3 381.2 1.6 -2.9 7.1 0.0 -20.2 20082 1854.0 1458.3 385.7 4.2 -2.8 5.8 0.0 -25.5 20083 1881.3 1480.4 390.3 5.4 -2.7 5.2 0.0 -59.2 20084 1840.3 1441.7 387.9 4.4 -3.1 6.3 0.0 -56.1 20091 1829.7 1424.4 394.5 4.8 -3.3 6.0 0.0 -36.6 20092 1843.8 1429.9 405.3 3.9 -2.7 4.7 0.0 -24.6 20093 1846.1 1429.8 406.7 5.5 -2.6 4.1 0.0 -14.8 20094 1852.2 1438.1 404.9 5.7 -2.5 3.5 0.0 -0.5 20101 1868.5 1451.0 406.3 8.2 -2.7 3.0 0.0 12.1 20102 1901.6 1485.3 405.0 8.3 -2.7 3.0 0.0 -54.8 20103 1916.1 1504.9 399.7 8.4 -2.8 3.1 0.0 -46.1 20104 1932.4 1525.9 394.9 8.5 -2.8 3.1 0.0 -40.7 20111 1951.7 1548.1 391.8 8.6 -2.8 3.2 0.0 -35.5 20112 1973.8 1571.6 390.3 8.7 -2.9 3.2 0.0 -29.8 20113 1998.3 1596.2 389.9 8.9 -2.9 3.2 0.0 -23.4 20114 2025.1 1621.8 391.0 9.0 -3.0 3.3 0.0 -19.0 20121 2054.1 1648.3 393.2 9.2 -3.0 3.4 0.0 -14.7 20122 2085.0 1675.8 396.5 9.3 -3.1 3.4 0.0 -10.4 20123 2117.5 1704.0 400.6 9.5 -3.1 3.5 0.0 -5.8 20124 2151.6 1732.8 405.5 9.6 -3.2 3.5 0.0 -1.6 20131 2187.2 1762.3 411.5 9.8 -3.2 3.6 0.0 1.6 20132 2224.1 1792.2 418.2 10.0 -3.3 3.7 0.0 4.6 20133 2262.1 1822.5 425.7 10.2 -3.3 3.7 0.0 7.6 20134 2301.1 1853.3 433.7 10.3 -3.4 3.8 0.0 10.3 20141 2340.9 1884.3 442.2 10.5 -3.5 3.8 0.0 12.6 20142 2381.5 1915.7 451.2 10.7 -3.5 3.9 0.0 14.5 20143 2422.9 1947.3 460.8 10.9 -3.6 4.0 0.0 15.9 20144 2465.0 1979.1 470.8 11.1 -3.6 4.1 0.0 16.9 20151 2507.7 2011.0 481.3 11.3 -3.7 4.1 0.0 17.4 20152 2551.0 2043.1 492.2 11.5 -3.8 4.2 0.0 17.5 20153 2594.8 2075.3 503.5 11.7 -3.8 4.3 0.0 17.2 20154 2639.0 2107.6 515.2 11.9 -3.9 4.3 0.0 16.7 20161 2683.7 2140.0 527.2 12.0 -4.0 4.4 0.0 15.9 20162 2728.7 2172.6 539.4 12.2 -4.0 4.5 0.0 14.8 20163 2774.2 2205.3 551.9 12.4 -4.1 4.6 0.0 13.6 20164 2820.0 2238.1 564.6 12.6 -4.2 4.6 0.0 12.5 20171 2866.2 2271.1 577.6 12.8 -4.2 4.7 0.0 11.4 20172 2912.8 2304.3 590.7 13.0 -4.3 4.8 0.0 10.4 20173 2959.8 2337.8 603.9 13.2 -4.4 4.8 0.0 9.5 20174 3007.3 2371.6 617.4 13.4 -4.4 4.9 0.0 9.0 20181 3055.2 2405.7 630.9 13.6 -4.5 5.0 0.0 8.6 20182 3103.7 2440.1 644.6 13.9 -4.6 5.1 0.0 8.5 20183 3152.7 2474.9 658.5 14.1 -4.6 5.1 0.0 8.7 20184 3202.3 2510.2 672.6 14.3 -4.7 5.2 0.0 9.5 20191 3252.5 2545.9 686.8 14.5 -4.8 5.3 0.0 10.5 20192 3303.4 2582.2 701.1 14.7 -4.8 5.4 0.0 11.9 20193 3355.1 2618.9 715.7 14.9 -4.9 5.5 0.0 13.6 20194 3407.5 2656.3 730.5 15.2 -5.0 5.6 0.0 16.0 20201 3460.8 2694.2 745.5 15.4 -5.1 5.6 0.0 18.8 20202 3514.9 2732.8 760.7 15.6 -5.2 5.7 0.0 21.8 20203 3570.0 2772.1 776.2 15.9 -5.2 5.8 0.0 25.3 20204 3626.0 2812.0 792.0 16.1 -5.3 5.9 0.0 29.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2005=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 95.6 96.1 101.4 94.7 95.5 20042 96.4 96.8 101.3 95.6 96.3 20043 97.1 97.4 100.6 96.2 97.2 20044 97.9 98.2 100.7 98.0 97.7 20051 98.8 98.7 100.5 97.9 98.7 20052 99.4 99.4 100.4 98.4 99.5 20053 100.5 100.5 99.6 101.5 100.3 20054 101.3 101.4 99.4 102.2 101.5 20061 102.1 101.8 99.1 102.2 102.2 20062 103.0 102.6 98.7 103.5 103.0 20063 103.8 103.3 98.3 104.6 103.8 20064 104.2 103.3 97.8 102.5 104.6 20071 105.3 104.2 97.4 104.0 105.7 20072 106.0 105.1 97.1 105.7 106.4 20073 106.4 105.7 96.4 106.2 107.3 20074 107.1 107.0 96.0 109.1 108.4 20081 107.6 108.0 96.0 111.2 109.2 20082 108.1 109.0 95.8 112.8 110.3 20083 109.2 110.3 95.5 115.8 111.3 20084 109.2 109.0 94.7 109.0 111.5 20091 109.7 108.6 94.3 106.7 111.7 20092 109.7 109.0 94.4 107.7 112.0 20093 109.8 109.6 93.6 110.2 112.3 20094 109.9 110.3 93.6 111.3 113.0 20101 110.2 110.6 92.8 112.6 113.4 20102 110.6 111.0 93.1 112.9 113.7 20103 111.1 111.4 93.4 113.4 114.2 20104 111.7 112.0 93.9 114.0 114.8 20111 112.4 112.7 94.5 114.6 115.5 20112 113.2 113.4 95.1 115.4 116.2 20113 114.1 114.1 95.8 116.2 117.0 20114 115.1 115.0 96.5 117.1 117.9 20121 116.1 115.9 97.3 118.0 118.9 20122 117.2 116.8 98.1 119.0 119.9 20123 118.3 117.8 99.0 120.1 120.9 20124 119.4 118.8 99.8 121.1 122.0 20131 120.6 119.9 100.7 122.2 123.1 20132 121.9 121.0 101.6 123.3 124.2 20133 123.1 122.1 102.6 124.5 125.3 20134 124.3 123.2 103.5 125.6 126.5 20141 125.6 124.2 104.4 126.7 127.6 20142 126.9 125.3 105.3 127.8 128.7 20143 128.1 126.4 106.3 129.0 129.9 20144 129.4 127.5 107.2 130.1 131.0 20151 130.6 128.6 108.1 131.2 132.1 20152 131.9 129.6 109.0 132.2 133.2 20153 133.1 130.7 109.9 133.3 134.3 20154 134.3 131.7 110.7 134.4 135.3 20161 135.5 132.7 111.6 135.4 136.4 20162 136.7 133.7 112.4 136.4 137.4 20163 137.9 134.7 113.3 137.4 138.4 20164 139.1 135.7 114.1 138.4 139.4 20171 140.2 136.6 114.9 139.4 140.4 20172 141.4 137.6 115.7 140.4 141.4 20173 142.5 138.5 116.5 141.4 142.4 20174 143.6 139.5 117.3 142.3 143.4 20181 144.8 140.4 118.1 143.3 144.3 20182 145.9 141.4 118.9 144.3 145.3 20183 147.0 142.3 119.7 145.2 146.3 20184 148.2 143.3 120.5 146.2 147.2 20191 149.3 144.2 121.3 147.1 148.2 20192 150.5 145.2 122.1 148.1 149.2 20193 151.6 146.1 122.9 149.1 150.2 20194 152.8 147.1 123.7 150.1 151.2 20201 154.0 148.1 124.5 151.1 152.2 20202 155.2 149.1 125.4 152.1 153.2 20203 156.4 150.1 126.2 153.1 154.2 20204 157.7 151.1 127.1 154.2 155.3
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 93.9 95.9 90.5 95.1 92.1 92.8 20042 95.0 96.6 92.4 96.3 93.4 93.9 20043 96.1 97.1 94.3 96.8 94.3 95.0 20044 97.0 97.7 95.8 97.8 96.6 96.4 20051 98.1 98.8 97.0 98.9 97.4 98.2 20052 99.2 99.6 98.6 99.6 98.8 99.2 20053 100.6 100.2 101.2 100.3 100.8 100.7 20054 102.0 101.4 103.1 101.1 102.8 101.9 20061 103.2 102.3 104.9 101.8 103.2 103.2 20062 104.1 103.1 106.0 103.1 104.3 104.6 20063 104.7 103.9 106.4 104.4 105.1 105.4 20064 105.6 104.9 107.2 104.4 103.9 106.1 20071 106.3 105.7 107.6 105.3 104.7 107.9 20072 106.4 106.1 107.3 106.5 106.3 109.1 20073 106.6 106.3 107.4 107.3 107.9 109.8 20074 106.9 106.7 107.7 109.1 113.1 111.3 20081 106.8 106.6 107.2 111.1 117.2 113.0 20082 107.1 107.2 106.7 113.8 123.0 114.7 20083 107.8 108.3 105.7 115.6 125.1 115.9 20084 108.1 109.5 103.1 108.8 112.6 114.1 20091 107.6 109.2 101.8 105.2 103.7 113.8 20092 106.4 108.0 100.4 105.2 104.7 113.9 20093 105.2 106.7 99.8 106.4 107.6 114.2 20094 105.0 106.3 100.4 107.9 111.8 114.7 20101 104.8 105.9 100.8 108.9 114.3 115.8 20102 105.1 106.2 101.1 109.2 114.8 116.7 20103 105.4 106.7 101.5 109.7 115.4 117.7 20104 106.0 107.2 102.0 110.3 116.0 118.8 20111 106.6 107.8 102.6 111.0 116.5 119.9 20112 107.2 108.5 103.3 111.7 117.1 121.2 20113 107.9 109.3 104.0 112.6 117.7 122.5 20114 108.7 110.1 104.8 113.5 118.3 124.0 20121 109.6 111.0 105.7 114.5 118.9 125.4 20122 110.5 112.0 106.6 115.5 119.5 127.0 20123 111.4 112.9 107.5 116.6 120.1 128.5 20124 112.4 113.9 108.5 117.8 120.7 130.2 20131 113.4 115.0 109.4 118.9 121.3 131.9 20132 114.4 116.0 110.4 120.1 121.9 133.5 20133 115.4 117.1 111.4 121.3 122.5 135.2 20134 116.5 118.1 112.4 122.5 123.1 136.9 20141 117.5 119.2 113.4 123.7 123.7 138.6 20142 118.6 120.2 114.4 124.9 124.3 140.3 20143 119.6 121.3 115.4 126.1 124.9 142.0 20144 120.6 122.3 116.4 127.3 125.5 143.7 20151 121.7 123.4 117.4 128.5 126.2 145.5 20152 122.7 124.4 118.4 129.7 126.8 147.1 20153 123.7 125.4 119.4 130.8 127.4 148.8 20154 124.7 126.4 120.3 132.0 128.0 150.5 20161 125.6 127.4 121.2 133.1 128.7 152.2 20162 126.6 128.3 122.1 134.2 129.3 153.8 20163 127.5 129.3 123.0 135.3 130.0 155.5 20164 128.4 130.2 123.9 136.4 130.6 157.1 20171 129.3 131.1 124.8 137.5 131.3 158.8 20172 130.3 132.1 125.7 138.5 131.9 160.4 20173 131.1 133.0 126.6 139.6 132.6 162.1 20174 132.0 133.9 127.4 140.7 133.2 163.7 20181 132.9 134.8 128.3 141.7 133.9 165.3 20182 133.8 135.7 129.1 142.8 134.5 167.0 20183 134.7 136.6 130.0 143.8 135.2 168.6 20184 135.6 137.5 130.9 144.9 135.9 170.3 20191 136.5 138.4 131.7 146.0 136.6 172.0 20192 137.4 139.3 132.6 147.0 137.2 173.7 20193 138.3 140.2 133.5 148.1 137.9 175.4 20194 139.2 141.2 134.4 149.2 138.6 177.2 20201 140.1 142.1 135.3 150.3 139.3 178.9 20202 141.0 143.1 136.2 151.5 140.0 180.7 20203 142.0 144.0 137.1 152.6 140.7 182.5 20204 142.9 145.0 138.0 153.8 141.4 184.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment